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Thursday, April 01, 2004

Debating gold

You may recall that I was looking for a gold dip and then another move upward. It worked out pretty well according to my formula. While it never quite touched my estimated buy price of $385, the London Fix did close at 390.50 on March 3, which at 1.023 was well within my buy range of 1.02 to 1.03. Unfortunately, I had nothing with which to make a buy, but it's still nice to see things work out according to one's calculations. With the price rising 9.74 percent since then, I was considering a sale yesterday at $428, but upon looking at the numbers I saw that it was well short of my preferred sell range of 1.15 to 1.17.

Since I've already made the mistake once of not holding on during a swift move upward, I'll wait until we hit that range, which requires a price of approximately $450. The key, as always, is being correct about the general direction of the market. Since we appear to be in the early stages of a long term bull market in commodities, it shouldn't be too difficult to profit from the inevitable fluctuations But it's also best to maintain a buy-and-hold core stake during these markets, as completely missing out on the big leaps up will happen from time to time.

I'm still kicking myself for not picking up silver at $5, especially now that it's threatening to touch $8 less than three months later.

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