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Monday, December 11, 2006

An argument against Chung Kuo

Perhaps the Chinese are not fated to rule over the world after all:

There's a lot of talk about what enabled China to become the industrial supplier to the world. Low labor costs are first on that list - but any third world nation will have low labor costs. The thing that really enabled China to fit into that slot was something we miss. It was the really low costs of shipping goods from there to here and Europe....

The only way to explain how that many of the shipping containers can be sitting here is if there's something running outside of an ordinary market situation. This little Ponzi game is my best guess at explaining it.

I know nothing about the shipping industry, but it's an interesting hypothesis and it wouldn't surprise me in the least if it turned out to have some utility in explaining the strangely expendable shipping container. After all, free trade agreements have very little to do with what the normal person would understand free trade to be, if trade were actually free, there'd be no need for these massive, all-encompassing agreements.

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