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Monday, March 26, 2012

Housing can't bounce back

Zerohedge on what would be student loan defaults, if students could still default on loans:
Back in late 2006 and early 2007 a few (soon to be very rich) people were warning anyone who cared to listen, about what cracks in the subprime facade meant for the housing sector and the credit bubble in general. They were largely ignored as none other than the Fed chairman promised that all is fine (see here). A few months later New Century collapsed and the rest is history: tens of trillions later we are still picking up the pieces and housing continues to collapse. Yet one bubble which the Federal Government managed to blow in the meantime to staggering proportions in virtually no time, for no other reason than to give the impression of consumer releveraging, was the student debt bubble, which at last check just surpassed $1 trillion, and is growing at $40-50 billion each month. However, just like subprime, the first cracks have now appeared. In a report set to convince borrowers that Student Loan ABS are still safe - of course they are - they are backed by all taxpayers after all in the form of the Family Federal Education Program - Fitch discloses something rather troubling, namely that of the $1 trillion + in student debt outstanding, "as many as 27% of all student loan borrowers are more than 30 days past due." In other words at least $270 billion in student loans are no longer current (extrapolating the delinquency rate into the total loans outstanding). That this is happening with interest rates at record lows is quite stunning and a loud wake up call that it is not rates that determine affordability and sustainability: it is general economic conditions, deplorable as they may be, which have made the popping of the student loan bubble inevitable.
The inability of students to default on student loans has bought the financial system a little more time, perhaps a year or two, but as is always the case with economics, the negative consequences can only be delayed, they cannot be put off indefinitely.

There are two very big problems here. The first is that the inability to write off these delinquent loans means that the banks are adding to their already large pool of fictitious paper assets. The second is that these hopelessly indebted students are never going to become homeowners, thus reducing the demand for housing and thereby adding to the forces causing housing prices to decline. This further adds to the fictitious paper assets of the banks, which already stands around 40 percent.

In other words, the presently perceived inflation rests on tremendously precarious grounds. We have reached the point where we now have a Potemkin money supply, even if we have not yet reached the level of the Soviet absurdity where the workers pretend to work and the government pretends to pay them.

Labels:

56 Comments:

Blogger swiftfoxmark2 March 26, 2012 9:23 AM  

I wonder if the "major" economists who work at the top echelons of power are aware of this problem.

Of course, the better question is that if they are aware, do they really care?

Anonymous Salt March 26, 2012 9:33 AM  

Who needs food stamps or welfare? Just go back to school on student loans. They may not be able to buy homes, but they can rent just fine.

It's time for the individual to stop playing by the rules and do what is necessary within the current corrupt system.

Anonymous Ben March 26, 2012 9:40 AM  

The student loan bubble is going to be building for longer than you can think because most people still think that getting a degree with get them a job, which isn't true anymore. I have a friend that took out close to $100,000 for a bachelor degree is sociology and a masters degree in International Relations and Diplomacy. Now he has a $15/hour job working for a non-profit. Sounds like a great return on investment?!

I didn't go into any debt to go to undergrad. Now I'm taking out $25,000 to get a masters in accounting which has decent prospects. I should be able to get a job that pays off the loan in 3-5 years and write off $2500 a year in student loan interest.

Unfortunately, people are taking out loans for absolute bs degrees, egged on by colleges that spout out crap like that you need to discover yourself and you'll make $1 million more over your lifetime by going to college.

Don't get me started on law school. As far as I'm concerned, most law schools deserve to go under for financially raping their students and then lying about their prospects. All colleges lie, but the law schools take the cake.

Anonymous rycamor March 26, 2012 9:54 AM  

The mind balks, or at least my mind does, at understanding what happens to a person with $100K+ in debt with no prospects of a decent job--especially in this economy. Are we seeing the creation of a new underclass here? It literally looks to me like there will be a permanent class of 'educated' people who will end up renting houses from and working for the 'uneducated' people who never went into debt and just worked hard at creating their small businesses or achieving some lower management position.

I've been thinking of placing my S. Fla townhouse back on the market, since real estate has had a moderate bump lately, but maybe I should just hang on to the rent potential. So far renting it out has been paying more than double the mortgage.

Blogger Mike43 March 26, 2012 10:00 AM  

Ben hit it on the head. This is a very precarious system, and I'm speaking as the father of 3 college graduates. Like I told my sons, there's only 1 reason to go to an Ivy League school: They pay for you to attend.

Actually, that did happen with one of them.

Otherwise, work your way through school.

Blogger DW March 26, 2012 10:00 AM  

I graduated from college last year with a degree in history. I'm a technician. College is useless for most of the people going there at best, and positively damaging at worst.

Anonymous JartStar March 26, 2012 10:01 AM  

Due to government involvement I think this bubble will go on five years or more before it collapses. Seventy percent of high school kids enter college, and the majority will take out loans. Their clueless parents will continue to shove their kids into debt slavery until the option is taken away.

I was reading The Age of Faith this weekend and the author made the point that medieval serfs likely paid less to their local lord than we currently pay in state and federal taxes.

Anonymous dh March 26, 2012 10:04 AM  

Extend and pretend is the name of the game on this.

I married some student debt, but as she approaches 40, the name of the game is indefinite deferrals. (Best part was her degree in finance and economics. Now a happy stay at home mom).

I write a check once a year to pay the interest, which at nominal interests is only a small burden.

In fact, I recently learned that after 20 years they can be completely forgiven. That's only a few years off.

As far as banks, Vox, you are incorrect about this being on most banks balance sheets. A stunning amount is in "direct loans". These aren't any balance sheet, anywhere.

Anonymous newyorker March 26, 2012 10:05 AM  

i'm afraid of a likely scenario of indebted 20 somethings will not only be unable to buy a house but won't be able to afford to have children.

the college-educated, presumably the brighter kids, not reproducing, b/c they aren't wiling to inflict their lack of funds on their children. the less well-endowed in intellect feel no such compunction. cue the opening scene of 'idiocracy'.

Anonymous rycamor March 26, 2012 10:10 AM  

Zerohedge discussion brings up the likelihood of an influx of new hookers due to this problem. Rycamor notes that the little stretch of country road by his house in Central Fla now has its first streetwalker. She makes about a 20-mile circuit all through the area dotted by small farms and neighborhoods, decked out in what are probably the same jeans, flannel shirt and backpack that she wore through graduate school.

Anonymous Aviendha March 26, 2012 10:11 AM  

Do you expect the status quo to continue for 10 years so that this can be felt? The Gov't can pass a law exempting student loans from the numbers used for home loans, or they forgive the debt, or something else.

I expect housing to crater well before this, with the end of robosigning, with banks attempting to extract rent from folks who have quite paying the mortgage, with the acceleration of foreclosures.

Anonymous JartStar March 26, 2012 10:30 AM  

Aviendha is correct and the status quo can't continue. A couple of ideas have been floating around for a while: a)debt forgiveness after 20-25 years b)maximum 15% of gross income in payments coupled with the previous c)debt forgiveness based upon a number of years in civil service.

The economy is turning around here in Texas. I Don't know if it will last, but it's nowhere near as bad as it was three years ago. If the youth unemployment rate continues I think a civil service job corps will become a popular idea, but I don't know if the liberal arts majors would rather live at home until their parents die or work as a low paid government employee doing menial work.

Anonymous Crispy March 26, 2012 10:42 AM  

Funny how it works:

What could be safer than putting your money in your savings and loan? Besides, it's guaranteed by the government.

Real estate never goes down "cause they aren't making any more land". Besides it's guaranteed by the government.

Borrowing for your education makes sense because you'll get a high-paying job after you're done. Besides, it's guaranteed by the government.

Social Security...

"Ce qu'on voit et ce qu'on ne voit pas" - Frédéric Bastiat

Anonymous szook March 26, 2012 11:16 AM  

@newyorker

ah yes, as the proverb goes.....the future belongs to those who show up for it.....

Anonymous Vidad March 26, 2012 11:21 AM  

The folks I hung out with a few years back... wondering at their amazing homes and incredible budgets... are now toast.

The kids I went to school with... with new cars and big loans... as I won my way through on scholarships and my own hard work... are now in big trouble... working poorly-paying jobs, servicing their debts and fast-fattening wives.

The incredible landscaping jobs on newly-revamped and flipped 50's houses in S. FL are filled with weeds. The mid-'00s-era granite countertops are still there, but the AC units have been knocked out for the copper and the last sucker with a mortgage on the place is long gone.

The connection between student loans and housing is powerful. These are incredible times. I'm privileged to be part of them. The advice of Solomon rises again across the millenia. Those who followed his thoughts on debt are thriving even as the wicked and foolish dissappear like smoke, their over-leveraged dream homes rotting behind them in the now-arthritic clutches of corrupt bankster cartels.

Anonymous RedJack March 26, 2012 11:29 AM  

The education system is bankrupt. We can't all go to college, in fact most of us should not. We need more Indians, not more Cheifs.

Anonymous LES March 26, 2012 11:39 AM  

My son has two Federal Direct Student Loans with interest rates of 6% and 6.8%. Just last month he was informed that EdFinancial Services has taken over repayment of the loans. High interest rates and a new loan holder. What is that all about?

Anonymous Redneck Joe March 26, 2012 11:43 AM  

Ben:
I didn't go into any debt to go to undergrad. Now I'm taking out $25,000 to get a masters in accounting which has decent prospects. I should be able to get a job that pays off the loan in 3-5 years and write off $2500 a year in student loan interest.

Joe:
Keep in mind the deduction phases out from $60k to $75k adjusted gross for single taxpayers, $120k to $150k for joint. As an accountant with a master's degree, you might be too rich to benefit from it.

Anonymous rycamor March 26, 2012 11:48 AM  

The folks I hung out with a few years back... wondering at their amazing homes and incredible budgets... are now toast.

The kids I went to school with... with new cars and big loans... as I won my way through on scholarships and my own hard work... are now in big trouble... working poorly-paying jobs, servicing their debts and fast-fattening wives.


Ladies and gentlemen, I give you Vidad, runner-up AWCA, hard in pursuit of the title.

Anonymous SirBasil March 26, 2012 11:50 AM  

The trouble is that Americans have blown trillions on the pretense of education.

I sort of fell into the same trap, but in a relatively calculated and responsible way. My parents, who aren't college grads, prodded me to go the college route mostly because they still value a college education as it was when they grew up.

Right now I'm about 40k in the hole owed to my parents in a gentlemen's agreement. I'm living with them in an arrangement where I more or less am contributing to their mortgage payments. It isn't an ideal post-grad situation, but neither of us feel that I am being a major financial liability in our household.

If I knew then what I know now, I would have commuted to a local state university and majored in a technical degree. But at the very least, when I was running on bad intel, my instincts still managed to have me graduate in 3 years with about a 3rd of the debt many of my peers are running.

Anonymous rycamor March 26, 2012 11:52 AM  

Vidad remarked injuriously:

The incredible landscaping jobs on newly-revamped and flipped 50's houses in S. FL are filled with weeds. The mid-'00s-era granite countertops are still there, but the AC units have been knocked out for the copper and the last sucker with a mortgage on the place is long gone.

Interesting thought--not only has a lot of wealth disappeared in debt collapse, but a LOT of physical wealth is going down the tubes due to property abandonment and deterioration. A house can only exist without maintenance for a couple years before things start to go really wrong.

Anonymous Vidad March 26, 2012 11:58 AM  

Actually, I didn't think of that, rycamor, but you're right.

There are some beautiful homes falling apart right now. Places that looked like resort hotels a few years ago.

That's destruction of wealth just as surely as Uncle Sam's shoot-pigs-and-bury-them-to-raise-the-price-of-pork stupidity was during the last Depression.

Anonymous zen0 March 26, 2012 12:00 PM  

Apparently, the Fed can keep the Ponzi going forever. DOW 30,000 by 2015

Anonymous Vidad March 26, 2012 12:06 PM  

@zeno

BTFD!

Anonymous Athor Pel March 26, 2012 12:08 PM  

I love reading posts on this subject. Makes me feel like a genius right up to the point that I contemplate the opportunity cost.

Once I started going to university full time I got three degrees, one being graduate level, and only needed one $4000 loan and some credit card debt to do it. The only problem is that it took me close to ten years to get those degrees.

Anonymous dh March 26, 2012 12:31 PM  

> My son has two Federal Direct Student Loans with interest rates of 6% and
> 6.8%. Just last month he was informed that EdFinancial Services has taken
> over repayment of the loans. High interest rates and a new loan holder.
> What is that all about?

Talk to the Republicans in Congress. They complained about "socializing" student loans process. Now private companies administer a good chunk of the loans, and 2% onto the agreed upon rates. If your son defaults, the private company gets made whole plus half the original promised profit.

It's a great deal if you can get it.

Anonymous Ben March 26, 2012 12:49 PM  

Joe, I'm aware of the phase out. A lot of accounting positions start out in the 40-60k a year range.

If I get a job that results in no deduction, so be it. I'll just be able to pay off this damn debt sooner.

Anonymous Joshua_D March 26, 2012 12:53 PM  

Vidad March 26, 2012 11:21 AM

These are incredible times.


Indeed.

Anonymous Mr. Nightstick March 26, 2012 1:03 PM  

I think this is much larger a factor in the continuing decline in house prices. I know of at least 2 families that want to move yet are underwater.

Blogger Nate March 26, 2012 1:08 PM  

"That's destruction of wealth just as surely as Uncle Sam's shoot-pigs-and-bury-them-to-raise-the-price-of-pork stupidity was during the last Depression."

That is the real deflationary force. Actual physical wealth disappearing into thin air.

You watch a 3000 dollar air conditioner be destroyed for 100 bucks worth of copper.... that is how you go from a first world country to a third world country.

Anonymous Vidad March 26, 2012 1:19 PM  

@Nate.

Yeah. The copper thing turns my stomach. That's all over this area.

Wonder how many of the thieves have advanced degrees...

Blogger JDC March 26, 2012 1:21 PM  

SirBasil said
It isn't an ideal post-grad situation, but neither of us feel that I am being a major financial liability in our household.

My guess is that you are helping them out too, and forming bonds that can never be replaced. Good luck in your endeavors, and blessings to your parents.

I counsel a lot of young people (under 40) who because of their financial situation have to live at home. I hear many people mock the 25-40's who are forced to live with parents (sometimes because of silly decisions on their part, but there it is).

As a glass is half full of piss optimist, I see the opportunity for family structures to be strengthened because of this. Time not spent in true adolescence, can be replaced in later life. That's got to count for something. Maybe not, but in today's world I am finding I have to sometimes stretch to see the blessings.

Blogger Nate March 26, 2012 1:34 PM  

Look the housing market bubble popped (I should say is popping because it isn't even close to the bottom yet)because it was... wait for it... a bubble. Sky's blue. Water's wet. Women lie. Bubble's pop.

The student loan debt issue is going to be a major factor in slowing the recovery from the popping... but until the popping is done it doesn't matter.

When the average US house is down to about 100k... then we can talk about the various factors that will prevent it from climbing.

Anonymous Freestater March 26, 2012 2:19 PM  

And yet despite all this the stock market marches on and on, 3 years nonstop bullmarket, can't say I saw it lasting this long. Also in my homestate of New Hampshire the economy is booming, not sure how this can mesh with the rest of the country but our unemplyment rate is currentky 5.2 percent.

Anonymous Changqing March 26, 2012 3:48 PM  

RE: Nate March 26, 2012 1:08 PM

I just bookmarked two links, from my inbox, from two different sources, talking about the exact same thing. I will share them with the Ilk, if they have not already seen/viewed these:

Link 1
Link 2

Then we get this from Drudge's twitter:

When it's all in ruins, and we're trading Chinese money, we'll remember Ron Paul like The Lorax, whispering 'Unless'. But yes, race was dull.

Then Wenzel informs us on gold and Hong Kong..

So, what shoe next to drop?

Anonymous Chang Apana March 26, 2012 4:01 PM  

Also from Zerohedge

The USA (govt) is certainly doing its part. So what does China have in store for us now?

Anonymous Mickey Mouse March 26, 2012 4:19 PM  

What is to Come.

Cue Firefly / Serenity?

Anonymous Master Kong March 26, 2012 4:46 PM  

And so it begins

Interesting, that my present employer, our latest generation of product, is slated to be manufactured in Shenzhen. Rumor (and hope is [1]) that that parent of the production facility will eventually become our parent. Simply because, no one else can buy us. My stock options are looking very good right now. Of course, at expense of U.S. sovereignty. All hail Texas!



-------------
[1] The sad and brutal fact is that the USA no longer has (or will allow) capital for small [developing] business. Yes, it is engineered. Any kind of reversal, will take one to three generations. (if, that will ever take place at all)

Blogger mmaier2112 March 26, 2012 7:08 PM  

Nate: "You watch a 3000 dollar air conditioner be destroyed for 100 bucks worth of copper.... that is how you go from a first world country to a third world country."

Idiotic. What I'd like to know is how the scrapyard folks sleep at night.

Anonymous pdimov March 26, 2012 7:09 PM  

The trouble is that Americans have blown trillions on the pretense of education.

Pretend trillions for pretend education.

Anonymous JMH March 26, 2012 7:29 PM  

the college-educated, presumably the brighter kids, not reproducing, b/c they aren't wiling to inflict their lack of funds on their children. the less well-endowed in intellect feel no such compunction. cue the opening scene of 'idiocracy'.

Nah, I think intelligence - at least in a practical sense - will go up as the Ivy Leaguers earn their Lifetime Achievement version of the Darwin Award. The semi-inbred folks who send their kids to credential mills are not our genetic elite. I mean, have you worked with many Ivy League grads? Have you noticed how many of the geniuses running the financial sector have fancy degrees? Benanke is connected, not smart. If there's any genetic advantage the folks going to the most expensive institutions have, it's in schmoozing, not in raw itellect.

So if debt loads limit children, it'll mean a future with fewer gifted salesmen and lawyers. I'm probably okay with that.

In fact, it'll probably mean less idiocracy in politics, because the folks from the second and third teir schools are less likely to continue allowing the lowest classes to have outsided influence in politics. The would-be aristocracy does that because they figure they can always outwit the trailer trash, but they worry about the State U. Civil Engineering grad.

Blogger LP 999/Eliza March 26, 2012 8:08 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger LP 999/Eliza March 26, 2012 8:09 PM  

Great post.

What a labor market! My interviews are epic HR jokes - no longer do I concern myself with being hired. Dress up, show up and have fun.

Meanwhile, I am unable to support myself depending upon 800momdad while we all sit around the dinner table wondering how long this 'recovery' charade will last?

Anonymous E. PERLINE March 26, 2012 8:12 PM  

If our children can begin holding a job at age fourteen, by the time they reach twenty four, they will have ten years of working experience. Because they can start working early (when money is not a factor) they won't be inclined to use the words "hump" day or "TGIF" day.

On the other hand, if they wait to age 24, or after they graduate college, they will therafter become jaded and tired, and see work as a burden.

Working those extra ten years makes them true experts in their field, and teaches them how to look after their families and finances.

Have you ever watched "How It's Made" on TV? If you did, you'll find that today's manufacturing is highly technical, rather than arty and crafty. It requires the good foundation that only a ten year start can bring.

If you want to be a great athlete you'll have to start much earlier.

Anonymous James Dixon March 26, 2012 9:18 PM  

> And yet despite all this the stock market marches on and on, 3 years nonstop bullmarket,

Interest rates at an effective 0% and inflation at 10%+ will do that. You don't really need to look any farther than that.

Anonymous Matt Strictland March 26, 2012 9:59 PM  

Every single economic problem with West is facing is caused by downward wage pressure. If wages were to the point here they were the same percentage of GDP they were in say 1960 people would have plenty to spend and the economy would be fine for the most part even with the increase in taxes and such

The problem is that there is no possible way to get wages up, even of trade could be curtailed and energy made cheaper, automation will get rid of jobs for pretty much everyone.

Jeremy Rifkin wrote about this back in the 90's in The End of Work and its the 400 kilo gorilla no one wants to talk about

As to what E. Perline said, yes but. The actual demand for any workers of any skill level is shrinking. Its certainly possible to increase skill levels a bit and help out there but the number of slots is limited and the number of people able to fill them are limited.

People are not fungible and they have different capabilities and unless Joe Average has a chance a decent paying job, one that puts him in the middle class (nice house, new car, extras on one salary) consumer capitalism is toast.

Fair to middling that society is toast with it when Joe and his peers including the smart people who no longer have work or any incentive to support the society take on prole conduct.

We are seeing this now and its not pretty, the end result is either chaos or dystopia or both -- well OK maybe a New Dark Age as well...

Blogger Nate March 26, 2012 11:25 PM  

"As to what E. Perline said, yes but. The actual demand for any workers of any skill level is shrinking. Its certainly possible to increase skill levels a bit and help out there but the number of slots is limited and the number of people able to fill them are limited. "

This is a gross falsehood. The US has a huge shortage of skilled labor right now. I'm sorry... but I realize people get all impressed with "dark factories" and other nonsense... but the truth is the vast majority of robots do 1 thing... and they do that 1 thing over and over and over again.

We need skilled labor and always will need skilled labor. We need welders. You gonna drop your welding robot down in the ocean and let him weld up a rig platform? Probly not.

Electricians are like doctors. And you have skilled mechanics to install new equipment and keep it running....

Any moron that thinks that is all going to be replaced spend to much time jacking off to star trek.

Anonymous JMH March 27, 2012 12:48 AM  

We need skilled labor and always will need skilled labor. We need welders. You gonna drop your welding robot down in the ocean and let him weld up a rig platform? Probly not.

Electricians are like doctors. And you have skilled mechanics to install new equipment and keep it running....

Any moron that thinks that is all going to be replaced spend to much time jacking off to star trek.


Hear hear. My furnace is having problems. It was installed by a moron. Seriously, the level of simple mechanical incompetence evident by a brief inspection is astonishing. I knew it was going to be trouble, but I'm still amazed every time I have to clean up after these bozos. The incompetence is not simple lack of IQ. Granted, an intelligence, mechanically inclined novice would not have made the poor installation decisions these guys did. But neither would 30th percentile IQs with a little bit of training and occasional supervision.

Troubleshooting requires some brains, but standard installation of standard components just requires training and enough of a work ethic to give a damn. Every house and apartment needs such equipment, and you can't outsource the installation to India, China, or even Canada. Problem is our society mocks Joe The Plumber for being a plumber, even though the question he asked Ivy Leaguer Obama demonstrated more understanding of economics than anyone in the Obama administration has shown.

Anonymous daddynichol March 27, 2012 7:22 AM  

I've been seeking some good info on how student loans are not used for their intended purpose. I find plenty of anecdotal stories, but I'm wanting some stats. Any suggestions?

Anonymous Bobo March 27, 2012 7:44 AM  

Matt Strictland said: "As to what E. Perline said, yes but. The actual demand for any workers of any skill level is shrinking. Its certainly possible to increase skill levels a bit and help out there but the number of slots is limited and the number of people able to fill them are limited."

But surely machines do not buy products. Products and services are ultimately made for human consumption and without work these consumers won't be able to buy this stuff. Automation is good but when it replaces your workforce who'll buy your products?

Anonymous Bobo March 27, 2012 7:47 AM  

Can hamburger assembly at McD be referred to as manufacturing?

Anonymous Anonymous March 27, 2012 8:05 AM  

i get a laugh out of the "students cannot default" line of thinking. when you have no money and no possible way of paying the debt, that would be a default no matter what the government says or what their contract says.

Anonymous E. PERLINE March 27, 2012 11:39 AM  

It's true the demand for skills change, but learning a skill carries over into related skills. For instance when I was a sign painter's apprentice it took several years learning how to handle a brush. By then I was in the swim of things and became interested in what made all other businesses tick. When sign painting became computerized I did also.

I must confess there's another factor in the mix. The federal, state and even city governments grant "licenses" to work at various professions. These require students to sit for a certain number of years in classes and then pass a test. This is a form of professionl birth control and helps the colleges fill their seats. But with computers we're getting well designed and illustrated sources of information that can replace teachers.

This brings up the kicker. Did you know it's considered unconstitutional for any government to grant a "license" for free citizens to make a living at any profession they choose? The magical determinant is competition.

Anonymous Jimmy March 27, 2012 5:00 PM  

I have a good friend who amassed over $100K in student loan debt, which was dumb of him and his family but even more dumb of the lenders. In this economy, he couldn't find a job in his industry so now is selling cars and living with his parents, who are paying his loans.

And of course, there is no way to discharge the loans, making sure that he will never climb out of the hole he's dug and most certainly will never own a house - just as Vox said.

Anonymous Stilicho March 28, 2012 6:35 AM  

Automation is good but when it replaces your workforce who'll buy your products?
The Riders of the Purple Wage. Unless Skynet starts producing robots imbued with Animal Spirits. All bets are off when that happens.

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