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Thursday, April 12, 2012

The global medieval

While it is generally a category error to talk about the medieval period outside of Europe, it is perfectly appropriate to discuss the warming that took place during medieval times and has bedeviled the climate change propagandists. Unsurprisingly, the latest evidence indicates that the AGW/CC scammers are incorrect - again - and the warming period was not limited to Europe:
Current theories of the causes and impact of global warming have been thrown into question by a new study which shows that during medieval times areas as far apart as Europe and Antarctica both warmed up. It then cooled down naturally and there was even a 'mini ice age'.

A team of scientists led by geochemist Zunli Lu from Syracuse University in New York state, has found that the ‘Medieval Warm Period’ approximately 500 to 1,000 years ago wasn’t just confined to Europe. In fact, it extended all the way down to Antarctica.

At present the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) argues that the Medieval Warm Period was confined to Europe.
It shouldn't be at all surprising that the climate scientists have been shown to be wrong again. Remember, experiment-backed science is only about 11% reliable according to the scientific method itself, so you can safely expect that whenever scientists make a new public announcement, they're going to be wrong around 90 percent of the time.

The rule of thumb is that if you can't make a physical object or machine based on the scientific principles involved, the scientists are wrong. One can reasonably trust engineers, engineering, and technology, one cannot reasonably place any confidence in scientists, science, or the current scientific consensus.

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49 Comments:

Anonymous p-dawg April 12, 2012 6:09 AM  

But Vox, haven't you heard? The science is settled and there's a consensus among scientists that global warming is real and is caused by co2. I saw it in the news.

Anonymous Cryan Ryan April 12, 2012 6:10 AM  

Wow. So next time I hear someone blathering about how "scientists are in agreement..."

I can flip a coin and be nearly 5 times as accurate.

Everyone talks about the weather...but no body ever does anything about it. hehe.

Anonymous daddynichol April 12, 2012 6:16 AM  

So the Syracuse report stands a chance of being 90% wrong?

Anonymous Rantor April 12, 2012 6:16 AM  

And I'd love to see the scientests explain how a global weather system can concentrate heat over Europe and leave the rest of the planet at normal temperatures... not for weeks or years, but for centuries.

Anonymous HongKongCharlie April 12, 2012 6:17 AM  

As evidenced by a former Amgen researcher.

GO



HKC

Anonymous Idle Spectator April 12, 2012 6:30 AM  

Come on now, Mother Gaia was just having a hotflash.

"A team of scientists led by geochemist Zunli Lu from Syracuse University"

YEAH! Zhongguoren representin'. Almost makes you want to forget about the Cultural Revolution, but not quite.

News Reporter: "Geochemist? Do you study geodes?"

Anonymous Roundtine April 12, 2012 6:32 AM  

I have a theory that the brains of scientists contain a large amount of dark matter.

Anonymous daddynichol April 12, 2012 6:45 AM  

I'll wager that Professor Lu's peer support, funding and grants will dry up unless he either (1) refutes the news report of his research(which he has already)or (2) he "discovers" some new crystals that conflict with his earlier findings.

Anonymous Anonymous April 12, 2012 6:55 AM  

Interesting they should come up with this now. Something like 14,000 temperature records were just broken in America.

Anonymous zen0 April 12, 2012 7:08 AM  

Interesting they should come up with this now. Something like 14,000 temperature records were just broken in America.



Did you check Washington State? Below normal for 3 years now.
Oregon and California normal.

Blogger Cranberry April 12, 2012 7:21 AM  

But Vox, haven't you heard? The science is settled and there's a consensus among scientists that global warming is real and is caused by co2. I saw it in the news.

Also, despite declining global birthrates, we are overpopulating and stressing the planets resources.

So the Syracuse report stands a chance of being 90% wrong?

Not so much, as it was about gathering data, probably based on drilling ice cores and comparing their composition and structure to others from warming and cooling periods. This is data gathering, not so much experimentation.

Where climate science gets sticky is the use of computer models to determine warming trends so they can get all alarmist and tell us how screwed we are unless we impose cap-and-trade NOW! Scientists cannot recreate Earth's climate of 1,000 years ago. That so much conflicting data, either from expeditions like the one to Antarctica or from computer models, exists and contradicts itself is what gives the error to the supposedly settled science. Even more unsettling is supposed rational, dispassionate scientists inability or unwillingness to reconsider their hypotheses in light of new data - this goes directly against the core of scientific method.

Science is never settled, but climate change scientists want to say it is so, and make us believe it too. Being a CC Denier is like the new "racist" of the 21st century.

Blogger Vox April 12, 2012 7:42 AM  

So the Syracuse report stands a chance of being 90% wrong?

Probably more than that if he reported an actual temperature average. What passes for science increasingly consists of broad and general claims that aren't even quantified. And yet, even those claims often turn out to be false.

Anonymous RedJack April 12, 2012 8:23 AM  

When the Orkney's can grow grapes again, call me. I don't mean the hybrid vines we have here in the Midwest either. They used to be known for their wine in Roman times.

For that matter, when Greenland starts to match the Viking legends, let me know.

History is hard, and most GW worshipers don't want to know.

Anonymous Anonymous April 12, 2012 8:39 AM  

For some reason I can't seem to find the spot to put in my name (something has change here ?) so this is being posted as anonymous...HH

Below is link to story on NASA watch ... interesting .. especially the comments section. This argument between PhDs in technical fields vs PhD s in science fields goes on all the time. As a group -- us engineers tend to believe we know everything (which we do :) )

http://nasawatch.com/archives/2012/04/jsc-human-space.html

Blogger Tor Hershman April 12, 2012 8:45 AM  

I just read your Tuesday, May 17, 2011 post and guess what[?].....you ain't safe in your own home - read what happened to me< @ my blog, not so long ago.

SOGS,
Tor

Anonymous stg58 April 12, 2012 9:07 AM  

In my line of work, I have found that often Ph.D's have no idea how much things (custom engineered things) cost.

Anonymous dh April 12, 2012 9:09 AM  

Why are you inclined to believe one group of scientists over another?

Anonymous Paul Sacramento April 12, 2012 9:15 AM  

The one thing that is CERTAIN about global climate change is that for every study proving it, there will be another disproving it.
I just don't think we have enough historical data to make a definite claim one way or another.
Are temperatures changing around the world? yes.
Are we responsible? to a certain degree I don't see how we can't be.
Is this any different from the various changes the climate has goen through over the 100's of millions of years?
Now THAT is the question I guess.

Anonymous Anonymous April 12, 2012 9:34 AM  

dh, because the scientists who discover bad things about science are right, but scientists are very often wrong, but not the scientists who discover bad things about science, because science is often wrong, er, I mean... well just shut up!

Anonymous Kriston April 12, 2012 9:45 AM  

The end of the MWP and the beginning of the LIA caused massive crop failures throughout Europe. This caused starvation just at the time that the plague started. Had the people had enough food they would have been stronger and most would have survived instead of such a large portion of the population dieing.

At the same time, over in the New World, the rainfall patterns changed radically as the world cooled and moist air could not go over the Rocky Mountains in the same quantity. The Great Forest of the Midwest died off and became the Great Plains that early European explorers found. The 'Plains Indians' ALL had legends of the not too distant past when they hunted deer in the forest before things changed. They were forced to become nomads and hunt the bison that roamed the plains.

These are all recorded facts that USED to be in history books. In order to believe that today's warming is unprecedented you have to ignore thousands of years of recorded history and science.

Anonymous Daniel April 12, 2012 9:46 AM  

Think of it this way: if you had a planet to conquer, who are you going to turn to: SkyNet or Bill Nye the Science Guy?

Anonymous The other skeptic April 12, 2012 9:47 AM  


Why are you inclined to believe one group of scientists over another?


Because there are many false prophets.

Anonymous Anonymous April 12, 2012 9:53 AM  

IPCC is in the 11% and the Syracuse study is in the 90%.

Blogger RobertT April 12, 2012 10:24 AM  

"The rule of thumb is that if you can't make a physical object or machine based on the scientific principles involved, the scientists are wrong. One can reasonably trust engineers, engineering, and technology, one cannot reasonably place any confidence in scientists, science, or the current scientific consensus."

It would be very interesting to study the mechanism that moved Science from a practical, utilitarian endeavor to a mystical practice of gods. Would that I had time or the interest, but I don't. Suffice it to say, science, as it is currently practiced, is worthless; or even worse than worthless, even dangerous. My ire doesn't include research however. If scientists would limit themselves to research and leave out the grandiose prognostications, they would at least be tolerable.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation (Ben) April 12, 2012 10:25 AM  

It's all about power and money. The global warming/climate change religious cult will never give up because their jobs and power are at stake.

For example, this treacherous government is banning freon by 2020 so everyone has to spend tens of thousands of dollars on new AC systems because there's an infinitesimal chance that the ozone layer is negatively affected by freon.

The government would not give a damn about GW/CC if it didn't involve expanding its metastasizing power over all of us proles.

Most scientists are sociopaths just like politicians. Soon people who don't believe in this religious cult rubbish are going to be labeled mentally unfit.

Blogger RobertT April 12, 2012 10:31 AM  

As i read over my first post, the thought came to mind, perhaps scientists are not bright enough or well enough socialized to understand their research and draw conclusions. There is a big leap from noting an occurrence and understanding it. I think that's it. Scientists undeniably have a kind of book-learning intelligence but I suspect it leaves them gasping for air in social situations.

Blogger Vox April 12, 2012 10:50 AM  

Why are you inclined to believe one group of scientists over another?

Because one group has repeatedly said things that I either already knew to be false - the AGW/CC crowd originally denied the Medieval Warm Period - and made incorrect predictions. It's less about believing one group than not believing the other.

Anonymous Kriston April 12, 2012 11:14 AM  

FUBAR Nation (Ben) April 12, 2012 10:25 AM

It's all about power and money. The global warming/climate change religious cult will never give up because their jobs and power are at stake.

For example, this treacherous government is banning freon by 2020 so everyone has to spend tens of thousands of dollars on new AC systems because there's an infinitesimal chance that the ozone layer is negatively affected by freon.


Is it just coincidence that Freon manufacture was banned on the same day that DuPont's patent ran out? And the the only approved replacements are patented by DuPont?

Anonymous BillB April 12, 2012 11:26 AM  

Record breaking heat on the tail of extensive solar activity. Could there be a link? Of course not. Man is much more important to Earth than the simple Sun.

Water vapor is the primary heat holding substance in the atmosphere, roughly 500X as important as CO2.

Freon-12 is water soluble although that information was removed from the books around 1985. Freon-12 is a polar molecule and as such dissolves in polar solvents, i.e. water.

Why is it that people choose to believe the government lies when it's someone else's ox being gored but become incensed when the tables are turned?

Anonymous Noah B. April 12, 2012 12:23 PM  

"Record breaking heat on the tail of extensive solar activity. Could there be a link? Of course not."

Is that happening globally or only in the lower 48? I know we're having record temperatures in Texas, and by far the earliest and most productive spring that I remember, but I haven't heard reports of record temperatures elsewhere. Meanwhile, Alaska has had an extremely cold winter and record snowfalls.

Anonymous Noah B. April 12, 2012 12:33 PM  

I would posit that the success rate of the scientific method is inversely proportional to the expense, time required, and overall complexity of repeating an experiment.

Anonymous DonReynolds April 12, 2012 1:55 PM  

Lemmie guess.....the medieval warming period was ALSO caused by man's use of fossil fuels....or was it that pesky nuclear emmissions? So tell me, how did all the artic animals survive the warm weather LAST TIME? Based only on my own recollection, I do not recall all the major cities of the world (built prior to the medieval period) being inundated by the rising seas when the medieval warming melted the polar ice caps. Where did all that water go? Inquiring minds want to know! (He He)

Anonymous DonReynolds April 12, 2012 1:57 PM  

Yes, I freely admit it. I am a global warming denier. Al Gore can put me on his list. (Worse than racism, ya know.)

Anonymous Znort April 12, 2012 2:21 PM  

No matter how many AWG scandals erupt; no matter how many unbiased studies contradict climate change orthodoxy; no matter how many climate scientists jump ship and point out flaws in the established model; the climate change mantra continues unabated in the MSN.

It's as if their strategy is to completely ignore any and all evidence against the climate change theory and rely completely on the power on repetitive suggestion i.e. hypnosis.

Anonymous Noah B. April 12, 2012 2:28 PM  

"Water vapor is the primary heat holding substance in the atmosphere, roughly 500X as important as CO2."

Increased levels of CO2 actually should have a somewhat moderating effect on temperature fluctuations, as it has a higher molar heat capacity than oxygen, and the atmosphere almost fully absorbs the infrared radiation within the absorption spectrum of CO2. Pretty basic molecular physics.

AGW is a crock.

Anonymous Gen. Kong April 12, 2012 3:25 PM  

Now dear chillens, we be commanded by the new Jeezus, St. Martin the Holy Adulterer, to exercise the one virtue above all others - to be nice! When it comes to this acrimony over the bath-water temperature, there is but one course of action permitted in order to be virtuous, which is to recite the shahada of scientific consensus: There is no truth but warming and Algore is its profit!

Blogger Rod Freeman April 12, 2012 5:33 PM  

I got my undegrad degree from University of Waterloo in Environmental Studies. By my final year I was so disgusted by the program I simply stopped attending classes and just handed in my papers and wrote the exams simply to end up with a piece of paper for the wall. The whole effort was a complete waste of time - just another line on a resume.

Environmental Science in current academia isn't even 1% science - its 100% politics. Every single course I took (without exception) was about how 'regulations' could be implemented using government coercion to accomplish a political goal.

The political goal was always the same - force people to adopt hair-brained eco schemes based on massive assumptions with no regard for the inevitable unintended consequences.

I was there at the cusp of the 'ethanol' craze and even thought growing corn for fuel was a good idea at one time. How terribly wrong everyone who believed that has been proven to be on every level.

Mercury filled CFC lightbulbs, bankrupting windmill schemes, city recycling programs that cost more fossil fuel energy to sustain than landfills ... only a few other examples of political programs without a shred of actual science behind them.

I can at least credit my edjumacation with enabling me to happily ridicule political green initiatives with well credentialed impunity.

Anonymous Dr. Idle Spectator, PhD in Mass Comm April 12, 2012 6:43 PM  

Everyone knows there is a function G called the Retardation Gradient in the sciences.

People like evolutionary biologists and ecologists at the bottom.
People like theoretical physicists, chemists, and computer scientists at the top.

Anonymous PC Geek April 12, 2012 6:57 PM  

Is it just coincidence that Freon manufacture was banned on the same day that DuPont's patent ran out? And the the only approved replacements are patented by DuPont?

Yessirr it most certainly is just a coincidence. Nothing to see here folks just kindly move along...

Anonymous Rantor April 12, 2012 7:29 PM  

Pc geek, yes it has long been known that it was DuPont lobbying and contributions to Congress that killed the freon industry. The green movement had little to do with it.

Anonymous Idle Spectator April 12, 2012 7:41 PM  

1,1,2-Trichloro-1,2,2-trifluoroethane.

That's my favorite Freon type, in the chloroflurocarbons. Spray it and inhale it around the house kids.

Anonymous Maurice Strong April 12, 2012 8:06 PM  

they're going to be wrong around 90 percent of the time

And what if they're not trying to actually "do" science, but pushing a world government agenda(21) through the mechanism of Religion?

Anonymous janeway April 12, 2012 8:52 PM  

I love how you keep quoting the DAILY MAIL as a source of science reporting.

Type "global warming" into their search engine. Screenfuls of articles and Every. Single. One. of them anti-AGW! Just what you'd expect from a reliable, unbiased, truth-seeking newspaper! ;)

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/home/search.html?sel=site&searchPhrase=global+warming

Anonymous Anonymous April 12, 2012 10:07 PM  

da down side of normal CC is when one cant mow yer own lawn as da deep south has been in a drought for the last decade. HELP!

Anonymous Anonymous April 12, 2012 10:08 PM  

sorry, im TASBASCO RULES!

Anonymous jay c April 12, 2012 11:27 PM  

More evidence of unshakeable scientific reliability: http://crev.info/2012/02/scientific-pronouncements/

Anonymous JMH April 13, 2012 12:36 AM  

My own crackpot theory is that the Earth's temperature is controlled by a giant flaming ball of hydrogen in the sky. Wacky, I know, but I believe it. Plus, get this, the Earth revolves around that ball of fire.

@Rod: I took a couple of enviro-engineering classes in my time too (but my degree was Mechanical Engineering). The enivro-e building was this supposedly eco-friendly strucutre that was supposed to have passive solar heating and cooling - big glass channels and towers along the south side of the building that were, ah, well, "designed" is the word they used, but I think "imagined" might be a better word, to be automatic heating and cooling systems. The building had no traditional central heat or a/c.

8am classes were freezing cold. Everybody was wearing ski jackets and blowing on their hands to try and get their fingers warm enough to take notes. By 2 in the afternoon, the place was a sauna and computers started having trouble. To top it all off, there was a gigantic crack running through the brand new cement slab foundataion. It was nicknamed the Temple of Doom. The only good thing about it was what some of the female students wore to class in the afternoons.

It could have simply been that they built it on the former site of the Universities baseball field, which was clearly cursed since the baseball team (baseball, mind you) went two straight years without winning a home game before the program was cancelled and the field handed over to the Enviro-E dept. That was probably it. Cursed.

Anonymous James Dixon April 13, 2012 6:56 AM  

> Interesting they should come up with this now. Something like 14,000 temperature records were just broken in America.

Yeah. And it was snowing on my way into work Wednesday morning. Your point is?

Anonymous Gil April 14, 2012 12:34 PM  

Why would Earth's temperature be controlled by the Sun itself when its heat output is pretty much constant? The Medieval warm period might be explained by the population growth and carbon output caused by fires and the subsequent cooling caused the Black Death culling a great deal of humanity at that time.

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