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Thursday, July 05, 2012

History speeds up

From Zerohedge:
I would also like to quickly note that mainstream economists back in 2011 were predicting the U.S. would reach 101% of GDP by 2021. It is now 2012, only one year later, and we have already crossed the 101% marker.
I may have to rethink that 2033 estimate....

Labels: ,

63 Comments:

Blogger Rahul July 05, 2012 2:19 PM  

Print baby Print!

Anonymous FUBAR Nation (Ben) July 05, 2012 2:32 PM  

It was a glitch. Ask Paulie Krugman.

Anonymous jerry July 05, 2012 2:43 PM  

So is it going to be hyperinflation, spiking interest, or something else?

Anonymous Rantor July 05, 2012 2:54 PM  

Add to this the fact that the Social Security Administration has admitted that the Zero Interest Rate Policy is driving it to reduce its estimates of when it starts running out of money.

"Now, Bruce Krasting reveals that Bernanke’s policy will completely bankrupt Social Security by 2023. I sure hope you 50 year olds weren’t counting on that monthly SS check in 15 years."

11 years to go on that note... now, the cyclical nature of interest rates means that they should start going up again in the coming years, but can it be enough to replace several years of underperformance?

Anonymous FUBAR Nation (Ben) July 05, 2012 2:56 PM  

Don't worry. They'll just get rid of the SS cap and tax the hell out of businesses.

Damn rich people don't pay their fair share!!!

Anonymous Rantor July 05, 2012 3:15 PM  

Continuing deflationary pressure on the GDP with continued deficit spending will further accelerate the Debt/GDP ratio in the coming year.

The government won't let off the gas pedal before they drive over the cliff.

The upcoming problems are not helped by Obama and the Ryan plan is too little too late. Denninger's three years to a balanced budget proposal could probably lead us back to some semblance of economic sanity but even the smart people I work with reject the idea that we (and Europe) need to go Iceland and hit the reset switch. They hate extend and pretend, but fear the alternative even more.

This does not end well.

Anonymous James Dixon July 05, 2012 3:22 PM  

> This does not end well.

A government going bankrupt never does. But that's the only thing that will stop it. They long ago passed the point of listening to reason. The steps needed now are to drastic for most people to stomach.

Anonymous Stilicho July 05, 2012 3:25 PM  

The government won't let off the gas pedal before they drive over the cliff.

That's because they think they can jump over the Grand Canyon below.

Blogger Nate July 05, 2012 4:11 PM  

Vox... as we've both pointed out in the past... these things can take forever to start... but once they start.. they can get out of hand and explode very very quickly.

That's why I keep saying 2015 to 2016. I know that the numbers say 2020 or 2030... but I am going with the pattern. The Romans probably thought they had another 10 or 20 years too.

Anonymous Josh July 05, 2012 4:14 PM  

VD, would like to see your take on bob wenzel saying that the libor fixing is a non story

Anonymous Daniel July 05, 2012 4:17 PM  

Stilicho

The government won't let off the gas pedal before they drive over the cliff.

That's because they think they can jump over the Grand Canyon below.


But I forget - is Thelma the Democrat and Louise the Republican, or is it the other way around?

I'm just hoping they can find in their hearts to hold hands at the end.

Anonymous VD July 05, 2012 4:24 PM  

Who is Bob Wenzel and why do we care about his opinion?

Anonymous jerry July 05, 2012 4:31 PM  

Wenzel is awesome.

Anonymous MattN July 05, 2012 4:34 PM  

VD

Who is Bob Wenzel and why do we care about his opinion?


The guy who gave this speech:
http://voxday.blogspot.com/2012/04/greatest-speech-ever-given.html

Anonymous Josh July 05, 2012 4:35 PM  

http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/2012/07/libor-scandal-nonsense.html

Economic policy journal guy.

His argument seems to be a variant of "efficient market hypothesis" and "the fed distorts interest rates to a greater extent than banks ever could" and "spitzer and taibbi are communists so ignore them"

Anonymous bob k. mando July 05, 2012 4:35 PM  

editor and publisher of the Economic Policy Journal:
http://www.economicpolicyjournal.com/

Anonymous Salt July 05, 2012 4:41 PM  

2011 to 2021 projection actualized in 2012. That's a 1000% reduction of projected time to hit mark. A huge miss. The train wreck is accelerating.

Anonymous bw July 05, 2012 5:43 PM  

I'm just hoping they can find in their hearts to hold hands at the end. -Daniel

+1

Anonymous VD July 05, 2012 5:45 PM  

Ah, I was wondering why the name sounded vaguely familiar. Sure, I'll check it out then.

Anonymous Gen. Kong July 05, 2012 5:48 PM  

I wonder if Benny and the Feds shout Ponzai! every time they hit the money button.

Anonymous Gen. Kong July 05, 2012 5:55 PM  

Daniel: But I forget - is Thelma the Democrat and Louise the Republican, or is it the other way around?

I'm just hoping they can find in their hearts to hold hands at the end.


Bi-partisanship! I'm sure the Palmetto Princess will have no problem holding hands (or exchanging bodily fluids) with her counterpart "Chuckie" Schumer or (if she's in a necrophilic mood) Incitatus Lautenberg.

Anonymous cheddarman July 05, 2012 6:10 PM  

Vox,

about your 2033 estimate...it may be a bit conservative, given the true nature of Americans

Americans have always done things in a big way, like when we go to war, we throw out all the civilized rules and flatten the civilian infrastructure of the enemy and kill civilians at a rate that would make the Romans and ancient Assyrians blush (U.S. Civil War, WW2)and produce more implements of death than all of the other combatants combined (WW2)

when we go bad, we use so many drugs that we destabilize entire regions of the globe (central america, large swaths of south america, and only the CIA knows where all of the Afghani heroin is going)

when we commit suicide as a country and go over the falls, no doubt the leadership class will have the engines at max power on the soon to be twisted wreck of the party barge called America

sincerely

cheddarman

Anonymous Gen. T.J. "King" Kong July 05, 2012 6:16 PM  

Cheddarman:
Americans have always done things in a big way, like when we go to war, we throw out all the civilized rules and flatten the civilian infrastructure of the enemy and kill civilians at a rate that would make the Romans and ancient Assyrians blush (U.S. Civil War, WW2)and produce more implements of death than all of the other combatants combined (WW2)

when we go bad, we use so many drugs that we destabilize entire regions of the globe (central america, large swaths of south america, and only the CIA knows where all of the Afghani heroin is going)

when we commit suicide as a country and go over the falls, no doubt the leadership class will have the engines at max power on the soon to be twisted wreck of the party barge called America


(straddling the big one on the way down to oblivion) Yeeeee-haaaawwww!!!

Anonymous Noah B. July 05, 2012 6:44 PM  

I have to take a bit of exception to Zerohedge's claim on this one. Who exactly were these economists who were predicting that it was going to take until 2021 for debt to exceed GDP last year? From what I recall, as far back as 2009, even the Obama regime was admitting that we would have perpetual trillion dollar deficits. It was only last year that our newly elected stalwart of a House speaker folded like a cheap suit and capitulated to every one of the Democrats' budget demands.

Overall it's an excellent article, but I think they have their facts twisted on that single point.

Anonymous The transhumanized body of Thomas J. Watson July 05, 2012 6:49 PM  

The very first electro-mechanical computers, designed and manufactured by IBM, for Hitler's eugenics programs. Computers, created by eugenicists for eugenics.

Now we know how and why technology will eventually kill us all. (or at the very least transform us into post-humans)

Ray Kurzweil says One World Government (currency and religion) by 2030. So, you are off at least 3 years, according to the elites themselves.

Kurzweil et al, are either liars, or not fully briefed by their handlers. Calling for the Singularity in 2045. Does he not know that the Singularity is an antediluvian concept? Any discovery in the mid 21st century, will only be a re-discovery of ancient technology.

How can one possibly build a five-sided pyramid, 2500 feet in height, and 2 miles wide? The closest example of one much smaller, here on planet earth, no one to this very nano-second can duplicate.

"There is NOTHING new under the sun."

Anonymous TheExpat July 05, 2012 7:18 PM  

I wonder if Benny and the Feds shout Ponzai! every time they hit the money button.

It's "Banzai!" although the combination with "ponzi" is ironically appropriate.

I think you have created a new economics term.


Ponzai!

Anonymous kawaika July 05, 2012 8:00 PM  

How can one possibly build a five-sided pyramid, 2500 feet in height, and 2 miles wide? The closest example of one much smaller, here on planet earth, no one to this very nano-second can duplicate.

Ask Wally Wallington.

Anonymous Idle Spectator July 05, 2012 8:26 PM  

I so called this apeeding up thing.

What tipped me off was Vox was only looking monetary things like debt, whereas I was looking at social changes like accelerating collapse of the K-12 school system and city governments and their construction projects. This Obamacare thing should tip everyone off. It does not even matter if they repeal it or states decide to opt out.

The fact that the thing was even temporarily upheld means the decay has spread too far already. I can't even picture it passing in 2006 or 2007.

We're already over the cliff, people just do not know it yet.

Chief Justice: "Hmmmahahah. John G. Roberts. Super geniussss. I like the way that rolls out! Hmmahahah!"
Then it explodes in his face.

Anonymous The other skeptic July 05, 2012 8:48 PM  

And if this report about major crop failures being a possibility is accurate, then expenditures are going to go up and people are going to die.

Not mentioned is frost damage to potato crops.

Anonymous The OASF on the Pirates Bandwagon July 05, 2012 8:51 PM  

"Now we know how and why technology will eventually kill us all. (or at the very least transform us into post-humans)."

Right idea, wrong conclusions. I've read some fascinating studies on how computers have actually destroyed productivity. The human brain is still infinitely faster and more efficient in, say, terms of data retrieval than the world's fastest computer. Not counting all of its other functions. Just like "cloning" the "Terminator" Armageddon is laughable. Robots will destroy us? Right. Big Dick Cheney can't even keep 10 year old rag-heads from hacking his drones' software.

Computers were designed to make humans increasingly feeble and stupid so they can be controlled and dominated. The electromagnetic chaos that they omit has dire health consequences as well. So the computrons have served their purpose quite well.

You see, instant decimation of the human race is a high goal but milking the fatties for all their worth and them leaving them for dead is a nice consolation prize for the elites.

Anonymous The other skeptic July 05, 2012 8:52 PM  

Big Pharma will be looking for new handouts as well

They will want even more than they got from the Affordable Care Act.

It's going to get hard balancing all those special interests.

Anonymous The other skeptic July 05, 2012 9:02 PM  

Our wonderfully divisive president

I wonder if that should have been diverse?

Anonymous David Of One July 05, 2012 9:11 PM  

A related commentary by Wayne Allyn Root

Anonymous The other skeptic July 05, 2012 9:20 PM  


A related commentary by Wayne Allyn Root


The problem is that Wayne Allyn Root's analysis is too simplistic. There are at least three Americas. Another one consists of all the really large corporations that toady up with the government so that they can get special benefits, but they are not part of the government.

Of course, somewhat like Nazi Germany, there is a lot of government-corporation cooperation.

Anonymous No_Limit _Bubba™ July 05, 2012 9:31 PM  

The Charmin effect.

The closer you get to the end (of the roll), the faster it goes.

Anonymous zen0 July 05, 2012 9:40 PM  

@Nate

That's why I keep saying 2015 to 2016. I know that the numbers say 2020 or 2030... but I am going with the pattern. The Romans probably thought they had another 10 or 20 years too.

I think that is about right. One reason is, I want to be around to see it.

3 years, bitchez.

Anonymous zen0 July 05, 2012 10:18 PM  

@ Noah B.

I have to take a bit of exception to Zerohedge's claim on this one. Who exactly were these economists who were predicting that it was going to take until 2021 for debt to exceed GDP last year?

It is not a ZeroHedge claim, it is a Brandon Smith claim
. If you really care about it:


You can contact Brandon Smith at: brandon@alt-market.com

Anonymous The other skeptic July 05, 2012 10:33 PM  


I think that is about right. One reason is, I want to be around to see it.

3 years, bitchez.


Disaster porn?

I hope it does not happen. I really do.

Anonymous zen0 July 05, 2012 10:47 PM  

I hope it does not happen. I really do.

Me too.....BBBBBWWWWWAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAHAHAHHAHHA

But seriously. Nobody knows exactly what will happen, just that something must happen.

Its like the lead up to world war one. Everyone knew something was going to happen, but could not imagine what it was going to be.

Anonymous The other skeptic July 05, 2012 10:53 PM  


I hope it does not happen. I really do.

Me too.....BBBBBWWWWWAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHAAAHAHAHHAHHA


Please allow me my pretense ...

Anonymous zen0 July 05, 2012 10:57 PM  

sorry, skeptic dude.

Anonymous Anonymous July 05, 2012 11:31 PM  

VOX -
I've been a lurker at this site since your publication of GD 2.0.

The only way I see out of this mess is a biblical Jubilee from debt. The only thing i don't understand is how that would work at the derivatives/mega-banklevel.

In other words, I can approach my bank and say I have a house worth X (market value) with Y equity, and am therefore willing to enter into a new mortgage for X minus Y as the new pincipal as a reset of my debt level.

Isn't this the way it should work at the mega-bank level as well?

I know that there would be winners and losers in these transactions, but isn't that simply accellerating the inevitable outcome?

Just curious how this would work at the macro-level, and yet another illustration of how we should follow God's instruction manual.

Anonymous Ghosts of Perdition July 05, 2012 11:40 PM  

This is simply a must view for all hands, and for this to go viral. Make it so...

You have no excuse not to watch this. Even if you think you know everything there is to know.

Lest we suffer our own Nuremberg at the hands of others, because we claim we simply "did not know." With the internet, we have no excuse...

Anonymous The other skeptic July 05, 2012 11:45 PM  


Lest we suffer our own Nuremberg at the hands of others, because we claim we simply "did not know." With the internet, we have no excuse...


How could that be. We were just minding our own business and doing our jobs.

Anonymous Anonymous July 05, 2012 11:53 PM  

Sorry for wasting your time.

Once my comment was posted, I realized that Man would not collectively stand up and do the right thing, admit his faults, and accept the consequences.

Anonymous bob k. mando July 06, 2012 12:19 AM  

Dread will enjoy this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_OawJA68jI

Blogger David July 06, 2012 1:14 AM  

The good news about the approaching inflation is that it will allow us to pay off the national debt with only a wheelbarrow or two of banknotes.
The dismal science to the rescue...

Anonymous Roundtine July 06, 2012 2:01 AM  

Obama may be a wildcard because let's say Europe and Japan go down, along with China, in the next 12-18 months. Does anyone thing Obama is going to be able to rally global leaders? If you thought the Tea Party was racist, wait for what they'll say about the Germans.

Romney will have a credible plan and he would be able to organize a global can kicking. In order for things to collapse now, there needs to be a major psychological shift and I don't see that under Romney, but it may be possible under Obama.

Also, the next president must deal with entitlements. Romney will either push through a Republican reform plan, or he will fold and pass the Democrat plan if they control Congress. Obama is will repeat the 2011 debacle.

Anonymous VryeDenker July 06, 2012 2:19 AM  

I always thought WW3 will be a religious war, but I wonder if religion will be a mere pretext and the real reason will be "the war on recession".

Blogger LP 999/Eliza July 06, 2012 3:00 AM  

Once again excuse me, I'm a bit disorganized during a move from one state to another. Anything I state is open to correction as its late at night for me.

(OT: Eh, Wenzel's tries his best. Sometimes he spends too much time on diversions but otherwise he gets the main topics like banking, Fed, etc. He appears to be a liberty lover while giving some time to the entertainment or disorder of OWS.

We all recall his speech...)

Indeed history and time seems to be quickening. Or perhaps its that when one hits a certain age time flies faster...

But these grave economic circumstances remain grim.

I've watched 4 states OH, PA, WV and NC all report the same thing on the ACA; "we cannot afford it - how will we implement it?"

These people - whomever they are, have an impossible theory that is simply unworkable in reality as they do not live in reality. They have no idea how to provide HC or how to deliver it. Every bill that was passed aside from the NDAA is nothing but theft and a transfer of wealth. These bills all point to a desperate attempt to generate revenue and it ain't gonna fly.

My Dr. is already warning me that my status of acting like a protesting patient is fast-tracking me from not receiving any care whatsoever or to get rid of me they want to remove me from the labor pool via SSI/D but that will fail too. Any Dr. looks at me and sees someone who may have problems but who can work. SSI/D is already at full capacity and cannot cover millions more or will they?

It is more than questionable that the ACA aka Hillarycare on resurrected and was passed during an economic depression. It was an unavoidable bill that would have been passed. It would stand but will it work in reality? Justice Roberts and the whole SCOTUS theatre was only entertainment. Another reason to turn off every instance of radio or tv coverage about the HC/ACA issue - most of the opinion pushers in American media have no idea what they are talking about.

"Principles and existentialist debates aside, the primary economic question still remains; where is a realistic plan to pay for this monstrosity of a program? I have yet to see a single grounded solution to the quandary. How does one pay for something he will never be able to afford? If there are no means, there will be no Obamacare."

Exactly correct and we'll wait n' see...a depression is still a depression. Benefit mandates will only sink those can pay, social engineering isn't going to work when a nation is broke and a people are not participating in the labor farce (shame on HR).

Blogger LP 999/Eliza July 06, 2012 4:03 AM  

I forgot: SCOTUS stimulus and my belief that looking to anyone else for your happiness (an example could be HC/health care), certain economic policies or even personal success, etc., will only lead to disappointment...

Anonymous Grinder July 06, 2012 4:06 AM  

What is the libertarian solution? Shrink government, slash welfare. What is the likely result on wages from so many thrown into the labour market? Without those welfare cheques consumption will drop so labour will be less necessary to serve the shrinking market. Many will resort to crime, often violent crime. What costs more: housing and feeding prisoners or welfare cheques? Or will the list of capital crimes be expanded? Will you sterilize less productive/habitually dependent populations to reduce the surplus population? Or let them die of starvation in the streets or in derelict buildings?
Or will the sudden reduction in strict regulation and taxes trigger an era of peace, prosperity and abundance? There isn't much in the way of taxes or regulations in Somalia and I don't think they are better off. America won't have a better outcome as year after year it looks more like Somalia and not because Somalia is getting whiter.
The only answer is national socialism. Races will be segregated or the white race will disappear. Judeo-capitalism is a cancer in the white race that will be eliminated eventually or else the white race will be eliminated.

Anonymous p-dawg July 06, 2012 5:06 AM  

@Grinder: They actually do have taxes and regulations in Somalia. There's a national 10% sales tax there, and IIRC about a 35% income tax on professionals. They're just inconsistently collected. Kind of like here, but more overtly biased towards those with means or guns.

Anonymous VryeDenker July 06, 2012 5:25 AM  

That is why libertarianism goes along with the right to bear arms and defend your property.

Anonymous Josh July 06, 2012 9:03 AM  

Grinder...you're an idiot...

Anonymous Anonymous July 06, 2012 9:25 AM  

Alas, Babylon

Anonymous FNG July 06, 2012 9:50 AM  

OT but where is Dread, anyway?

Blogger Nate July 06, 2012 9:53 AM  

"I always thought WW3 will be a religious war, but I wonder if religion will be a mere pretext and the real reason will be "the war on recession"."

What in the blue hell would make anyone predict that ww3 would be a religious war?

I mean a tiny tiny percentage of wars are religious in nature... and NONE of the big ones were.

Anonymous No_Limit_Bubba™ July 06, 2012 11:23 AM  

Nate
What in the blue hell would make anyone predict that ww3 would be a religious war?

Islamofaciism!













/s

Blogger LP 999/Eliza July 06, 2012 3:05 PM  

OT: Dread is probably busy with work or using that other name of his.

None of this is health or care. All Americans 'will pay' are more taxes to international banks under the guise of HC. There will be less health and less care. And I hope I'm wrong.

Anonymous E. PERLINE July 06, 2012 4:07 PM  

I was a child when the stock market crashed in 29. This caused a downturn in economic activity. Like in other downturns it was expected to turn up in a year or two.

I remember when Franklin D. Roosevelt was elected. Take my word for it, he was truly loved by the people. They sensed he was an elitist but they couldn't know he came with socialist ideas in his baggage. And he was probably anxious to use them to prove how marvelous they were!

At that time, there was no press, radio, video or internet that could point this out. There was no prominent organization that could be in the least critical of our beloved Commander-in- Chief.

As a result, he tried one socialist experiment after another and they all failed miserably. We were mired in a depression for 12 long years, which is probably a record. And I'm sure you know we could only come out of it by participating in WW2.

Romney is said to be as evil as Obama. But Obama reminds me Roosevelt. He must be eviller.

Anonymous The other skeptic July 06, 2012 11:51 PM  

These people seem optimistic that humans will live on Mars by 2023

Anonymous FNG July 08, 2012 5:32 PM  

Thanks LP. I'm new here, thus the handle, so I don't know his other name. Just getting my feet wet here.

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