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Thursday, August 30, 2012

Sounds like snake oil

"The present administration has made its choices. And Mitt Romney and I have made ours: Before the math and the momentum overwhelm us all, we are going to solve this nation's economic problems. And I'm going to level with you: We don't have that much time. But if we are serious, and smart, and we lead, we can do this."
- Paul Ryan

There isn't much time, which is why he has proposed a budget that doesn't balance for another 28 years. Color me dubious. The math is already grim.

Labels:

122 Comments:

Anonymous Redlegben August 30, 2012 3:22 AM  

Oil. I'm still not convinced that controlling oil like OPEC has wouldn't provide IPods for every illegal born in the USA. The oil rich countries of the Middle East hand out hand-outs without any financial repurcusions.

Anonymous the abe August 30, 2012 3:36 AM  

The only question left in my own mind, when looking at top-tier politicians like Ryan and B.O., is rather or not they really believe in this balance-sheet voodoo for economics because they know no better and which in turn is reinforced by equally benighted "experts" surrounding them.

Anonymous Roundtine August 30, 2012 3:44 AM  

Social security and Medicare can be solved with a simple idea: money in equals money out, taxes stay at current levels. Put them off budget and do not allow them to borrow money. Unfunded liabilities gone, tax threat gone. Let the programs run more like a corporation, allowing them to reform how benefits are paid in order to deal with shortfalls.

Oil and natural gas could definitely provide some jobs. Building LNG terminals will help with that. But why don't we think more like the Asians? Let's not build LNG terminals to export natural gas, let's keep natural gas prices very low and force foreign manufacturers to move close to the source of cheap inputs, and then export value added products, keeping more of the supply chain in the U.S.?

Also, self-deport illegals. More resources for the rest of us.

Anonymous Redlegben August 30, 2012 3:55 AM  

Natural gas reserves are the perfect example of what exploiting oil reserves would do.

I love self deportation as a concept. Penalize renting to illegals by taking the properties. Penalize employing illegals by $100,000 fines. Oklahoma has done similar to this and they don't live here anymore. The cost of labor has risen to the point where retailers will pay up to $15/hr for part-time teen-age workers.

Blogger Good Will August 30, 2012 4:02 AM  

It was disconcerting to see Paul Ryan's speech getting the RNC to cheer the strengthening and perpetuation of Medicare (socialism).

Anonymous the abe August 30, 2012 4:19 AM  

It was disconcerting to see Paul Ryan's speech getting the RNC to cheer the strengthening and perpetuation of Medicare (socialism)

That's the refreshing thing about living in Europe. People and politicians deal more frankly and honesty about the fact it's a welfare state. America spends and equally comparable amount on social insurance programs and treats it like dad's alcoholism problem.

Blogger Doom August 30, 2012 4:37 AM  

Bah! Your such a worry wart. The math isn't grim, it's impossible. Another ten companies like Microsoft and half of the children home schooled next year won't change that, so how could a change of guard, even if it is complete, substantial, and motivated? The best that can be done is to kick the can (as most see it, if they truly understand even a bit of the real numbers). Which confuses me as to why anyone would vote Democrat. If... in a nuanced way, a quick end to initiate the rebuild might be better, thus voting Democrat might be called a good. But they wouldn't be the right people to be in power should it all fail catastrophically and quickly. So... the nuance doesn't work unless you are very short sighted.

Kicking the can will never solve the problem. But... that is pretty much all men can do until Christ comes, in a more broad sense. And His coming won't initially be heralded or immediately followed by "good times". Men simply don't know usually. And when they do know, they still don't choose what is best because of prejudices, self-interest, tribal claims, plain foolishness, and whatever other reason to go against reason Satan can devise. I don't know why you... obsess so. Really, it's... bad for your health!

Anonymous Kickass August 30, 2012 6:27 AM  

He says like a thief in the night fo a reason.

Anonymous DT August 30, 2012 7:18 AM  

Before the math and the momentum overwhelm us all,

Before?

Maybe Ryan has an outdated copy of the math.

Blogger LP 999/Eliza August 30, 2012 7:24 AM  

Oh no...Haven't we heard this before?

Blogger Morrison August 30, 2012 7:40 AM  

The so called Christians in the Republican Party have offered us a cultist and an atheist as leaders.

Blogger Nicholas Poirier August 30, 2012 7:50 AM  

R&r are both Republican hacks for globalism. Wish the average conservative could see this.

Blogger Professor Hale August 30, 2012 7:54 AM  

"We're screwed, Man. Game Over", isn't much of a campaign speech.

Blogger Tank August 30, 2012 8:12 AM  

It's very possible (probable?) that Ryan (and Romney too) know what the numbers really say. But you can't say what's necessary and actually get elected. He might as well personally star in a commercial of himself pushing grandma off a cliff.

I'm not going to vote for them (for various reasons, not just economic), but they're smart and serious people, about the best you could hope to get elected.

50% of Americans are below average. Half of the rest might as well be ignorant morons too.

Blogger The Anti-Gnostic August 30, 2012 8:43 AM  

Who would want to be President in 2012? If they do what's necessary, the economy will contract very sharply and the NYT will run page after page about unemployed baby-mommas starving in the streets. Let things continue, and eventually the debt becomes unmarketable at these ridiculous yields. I'm not sure what's keeping all the balls in the air at this point. How do you keep printing money to buy your own debt?

Anonymous Salt August 30, 2012 9:02 AM  

@ Tank

Theoretically possible but quite improbable. If Mittens were of that caliber Mass would not, at least at the minimum, have Romneycare.

Anonymous The One August 30, 2012 9:15 AM  

The apple does fall far from the tree?

Anonymous Azimus August 30, 2012 9:17 AM  

VD:
There isn't much time, which is why he has proposed a budget that doesn't balance for another 28 years. Color me dubious.


Dubious, sure. But if the ship is sinking and there are no lifeboats, I'm at least going to pause my hysterics, looting and rapine to listen to the guy who's suggesting we start pumping out the ship, even if it would take 28 years to stabilize. He has an American crew afterall - they're only willing to do the work necessary to make sure the ship doesn't sink until they're dead. It is a difficult thing in the age of bread and circuses to win a popular election with the platform of "less bread! less circuses!"

Anonymous Azimus August 30, 2012 9:20 AM  

Tank August 30, 2012 8:12 AM It's very possible (probable?) that Ryan (and Romney too) know what the numbers really say. But you can't say what's necessary and actually get elected. He might as well personally star in a commercial of himself pushing grandma off a cliff.

I'm not going to vote for them (for various reasons, not just economic), but they're smart and serious people, about the best you could hope to get elected.


Well said.

Anonymous Roundtine August 30, 2012 9:21 AM  

If Mittens were of that caliber Mass would not, at least at the minimum, have Romneycare.
Romney just wants to sit in their chair, he has no bold ideas. Romneycare is a total disaster. If there were right-wing media in the U.S., Romneycare would be front and center as a living example of government failure. He will probably be worse than Bush the Younger when all is said and done.

Anonymous The other skeptic August 30, 2012 9:37 AM  

When the puppet masters choose their figureheads, the problems they want solved are their problems, not our problems.

Anonymous cheddarman August 30, 2012 9:45 AM  

I think I will vote communist this election cycle and try and speed up the default, rather than prolonging the slow motion agony

sincerely

cheddarman

Anonymous The other skeptic August 30, 2012 9:47 AM  

Romney just wants to sit in their chair, he has no bold ideas.

I have come to the conclusion that the Elites look down on the rest of us because they do not want to feel any sense of responsibility for us. When it all gets too tough, as in South Africa, they can just take their money and leave and let the rest of us deal with the pain.

Perhaps it is time to share the pain.

Anonymous DonReynolds August 30, 2012 9:53 AM  

@Redlegben...."Penalize renting to illegals by taking the properties."

No...BURN the friggin house to the ground, leaving the slumlord with a vacant lot. Let the fire department do the burn for training purposes. Nobody can burn a house like firefighters can. Only the nails and foundation remain.

@Redlegben...."Penalize employing illegals by $100,000 fines."

NO....Close the business and confiscate the assets, to be auctioned off to pay for deporting those who will not self-deport. Fines like that are usually uncollectable. The fine by law for illegal use of a social security number is $250,000. When have they ever tried to get that from illegal aliens?

@Redlegben....."Oklahoma has done similar to this and they don't live here anymore. The cost of labor has risen to the point where retailers will pay up to $15/hr for part-time teen-age workers."

I used to live in Durant in southeast Oklahoma (also called Little Dixie). One daughter moved back there a few years ago and another is moving back soon. Much better than Texas.


Blogger LP 999/Eliza August 30, 2012 9:54 AM  

No, the Christian Right is listening to whomever has their ear for a police state. Remember, Romans 12/13 is twisted. So yes, all going according to plan.

Anonymous zeonxavier August 30, 2012 9:56 AM  

In slight defense of Ryan, his budget plan is the result of asking the Democrat representatives what he needed to do to get them to sign the thing. As such, it is supposed to be better than what the progressives would have come up with.

Not good enough, by far. Our politicians, save Dr. Paul, have a reality gap problem.

Blogger IM2L844 August 30, 2012 9:58 AM  

When the puppet masters choose their figureheads, the problems they want solved are their problems, not our problems.

We might get some indication on Friday of who they intend to use for the next 4 years as they continue to tack back and forth, slowly but surely sailing unfailingly toward that golden shore of fair and equitable redistribution that is globalism.

Blogger James Dixon August 30, 2012 9:58 AM  

> ... about the best you could hope to get elected.

Yep. That pretty much says it all. Not much for the death knell of what once was the world's greatest country, but...

> He will probably be worse than Bush the Younger when all is said and done.

Almost certainly, as we're closer to the end now. Whether worse than another Obama term, I can't say. Of course, I've been wrong before. It would be nice to be so again.

> Perhaps it is time to share the pain.

No need. They think they're safe, but they're sowing the wind. No one can contain the whirlwind which will follow.

Blogger LP 999/Eliza August 30, 2012 10:13 AM  

The people around me are sick - they don't even want to vote. Instead they are moving more money offshore and leaving. For where I don't bother asking.

Anonymous Matt August 30, 2012 10:19 AM  

Everything in that Ryan quote is completely true. The problem is the "if": if we are serious, and smart, and we lead, we can do this.

Nobody in DC fits that description. Ryan is one of the closest - he's got the smart and probably half of the serious - but there's no way in the world DC as a whole can get anywhere even vaguely near the kind of measures that would be required to avert catastrophe. So it won't happen.

Anonymous rycamor August 30, 2012 10:21 AM  

James Dixon August 30, 2012 9:58 AM

> ... about the best you could hope to get elected.

Yep. That pretty much says it all. Not much for the death knell of what once was the world's greatest country, but...

> He will probably be worse than Bush the Younger when all is said and done.

Almost certainly, as we're closer to the end now. Whether worse than another Obama term, I can't say. Of course, I've been wrong before. It would be nice to be so again.

> Perhaps it is time to share the pain.

No need. They think they're safe, but they're sowing the wind. No one can contain the whirlwind which will follow.


Indeed. Private armies can get expensive, and when you are unable to feed them any longer, what comes next?

Anonymous Other Josh August 30, 2012 10:22 AM  

I was watching Bill Maher on Jay Leno last night. The guy is a douche bag, BUT as he spoke about the Republican party and absolutely trashed everything about it (deservedly so), I realized that he actually had genuine respect for Ron Paul.

Alot of Democrats I talk to have genuine respect for Ron Paul.

If the RNC really wanted to unseat Obama, they missed their best opportunity with Ron Paul. The only people who seem to dislike that guy are neocon Republicans.

Anonymous DonReynolds August 30, 2012 10:22 AM  

If you want to reform Social Security in order to save it, start by taking a fresh look at anyone under 62 receiving benefits.

Too many of the black kids get SSI checks, called "crazy checks". They were coached to act stupid in school to screw up on their tests and prove that they are weak minded.

Start with the so-called disabled persons that are able to work and support themselves, especially the ones with "mental illness". A knee injury should not entitle anyone to a lifetime of disability income. (Both of my knees are injured....one in high school football and the other in the US Army.) My mother was in a wheelchair for 14 years with bone degeneration and COPD, but they never thought she was disabled. She could not stand or go to the toilet by herself, but Social Security did not see her as disabled.

I do have a cousin that got on Social Security by claiming to be a heroin addict. (He wasn't and they never tested him to be sure.) Between the free methodone (which he sold on the street) and his disability income from Social Security, he was pulling down $4k a month.....tax free.

I have another cousin with a Down's syndrome child, now about 20 years old. Social Security has shelled out big money for that child for two decades, even paid him to go to school. Even now they pay someone $10 bucks an hour to babysit him. His parents are not (and have never been) poor in the least, they operate a cattle ranch/hog farm in Arkansas and do quite well financially. How about a means test for Social Security benefits? Heck, even Ronald Reagan collected his Social Security when he was living in the White House. (I do not think he actually needed the money.)

Revisit all the HIV/AIDS cases that are receiving Social Security. The new mix of medication have them living relatively normal lives, many of them with a natural lifespan. Let them go back to work. Risky sex habits should not entitle anyone to a lifetime income from Social Security.

Needless to say, this is not the end of the list of people under 62 who are draining the Social Security fund. It is not necessary to push granny over the cliff, just drop off those who really have abused the system.

Anonymous Rantor August 30, 2012 10:24 AM  

I saw an article yesterday on defense spending... Romney plans to ramp up US defense spending at 4% of GDP. We are at about 2.8% now. This will lead to a massive increase in defense spending. And somehow they'll reduce everything else commensurately?

Anonymous Tom Miranda August 30, 2012 10:34 AM  

Term Limits. Balanced Budget Amendment. Abolish Fed. Get Money out of Politics. Consumption Tax.

Blogger James Dixon August 30, 2012 10:34 AM  

> The only people who seem to dislike that guy are neocon Republicans.

They're the ones who run the party. Were you expecting anything else?

> Romney plans to ramp up US defense spending at 4% of GDP. We are at about 2.8% now.

That wouldn't surprise me at all. Not that there's any rational reason to increase defense spending that much. If anything, we should be cutting it. Our current threats aren't the kind which can be handled by large military infrastructure (except for China, and that's too long a subject to cover here).

> And somehow they'll reduce everything else commensurately?

Of course not.

Anonymous 43rd Virginia Calalry August 30, 2012 10:35 AM  

I'm just glad somebody mentioned math.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation (Ben) August 30, 2012 10:36 AM  

The way that the Ron Paul delegates were treated was the last straw for me. The republican party and Romney are totalitarians and scum. They are so insecure that they can't actually have a debate and just want the convention to be the Mitt Romney coronation. The entire system is a sham and the government is illegitimate.
For this they deserve to lose in a landslide.

It doesn't matter anyways because Romney is the same as Obama.

Blogger Nate August 30, 2012 10:37 AM  

"Everything in that Ryan quote is completely true. "

No. It isn't. For example... the matter is already settled. The point of no-return was passed about 5 years ago... and all we've done since is stomp the gas.

You people will continue to delude yourself that its not to late to pull the rip cord... even after the sky diver has splattered all over the ground.

Anonymous Rally August 30, 2012 10:42 AM  

It's actually pretty easy to print money to cover your debt. What I don't understand is why people still take that money seriously.

Anonymous DonReynolds August 30, 2012 10:45 AM  

(Ok, a shorter version)

If you want to reform Social Security in order to save it, take a close look at those under 62 that are receiving benefits. This is the abuse that is draining the system.

Blogger James Dixon August 30, 2012 10:46 AM  

> The point of no-return was passed about 5 years ago... and all we've done since is stomp the gas.

Not quite, Nate. If you're talking the political point of no return, I'd say you're correct. But if you're talking mathematics, we've got somewhere between 5 and possibly as many as 20 years yet. It just gets progressively more painful the closer you get.

The trigger for the mathematical point of no return will most likely be a sudden rise in interest rates on the debt.

All we would have to do now is cut federal spending by around 50% to balance the budget, maintain a balanced budget, and put any surplus toward paying off the debt.

Now, that's not going to happen, but it's not mathematically impossible.

Anonymous DonReynolds August 30, 2012 10:48 AM  

Lemmie guess.....the moderator is under 62 and receives a check from Social Security every month?

Anonymous Matt August 30, 2012 10:48 AM  

Not at all, Nate. The painful fix is still available - cut all federal spending by a factor of 2 and require most private debt to be secured. It would be a very painful cure, but it would work.

But it won't happen. I don't have any illusions about that regardless of who is elected.

Anonymous Matt August 30, 2012 10:49 AM  

Woah, apparently me and JD think alike.

Blogger James Dixon August 30, 2012 10:51 AM  

> Woah, apparently me and JD think alike.

Apparently. :)

Blogger Nate August 30, 2012 11:03 AM  

"Not at all, Nate. The painful fix is still available - cut all federal spending by a factor of 2 and require most private debt to be secured. It would be a very painful cure, but it would work."

No. It wouldn't work. It would do nothing about the mountain of private debt and public debt that can never be paid back.

Listen carefully...

Every dime of federal spending could be cut... And we'd still be broke.

The mortgage system would still be shredded by the fraud.

The real estate title system would still be wrecked beyond repair.

Are ya paying attention yet?

The plane has already crashed into the mountain. its done.

Anonymous Angel August 30, 2012 11:16 AM  

@ Nate

When does the eating of frozen corpses start, because I need to get out of here before it does.

Blogger James Dixon August 30, 2012 11:19 AM  

> It would do nothing about the mountain of private debt and public debt that can never be paid back.

The public debt could be paid back. If we were willing to quit borrowing and cut spending enough to do it. Will it be? No. But it could be. For a while yet.

The private debt isn't a government concern. Nor should it be.

> The mortgage system would still be shredded by the fraud ... The real estate title system would still be wrecked beyond repair.

Again, not a government concern.

> The plane has already crashed into the mountain. its done.

More like it's diving, the pilots have left the cockpit, and security guards are denying any competent pilots access to the cockpit.

Blogger Nate August 30, 2012 11:31 AM  

"The public debt could be paid back. If we were willing to quit borrowing and cut spending enough to do it."

No. the public debt can't be paid back. Not even close. Jeez man Vox and I have both already been through the math on this numerous times.

And yes... private debt matters. it may not be "a government concern" but its an economic reality. The housing bubble wasn't public hoss. It was private.

/facepalm




Anonymous Josh August 30, 2012 11:35 AM  

Again, not a government concern.

What is the purpose of government except to uphold property rights, which are violated by acts of fraud?

Mongoloid.

Anonymous Josh August 30, 2012 11:39 AM  

The private debt isn't a government concern. Nor should it be.

The explosion of private debt was caused by the federal reserve...and government actions are preventing the deleveraging from happening.

Anonymous johnc August 30, 2012 11:41 AM  

It's somewhat amusing that the issue of the ridiculously insane trade deficit never garners as much as a peep during these campaigns. I guess it's not seen as a legitimate concern.

Meanwhile in an industrialized nation like Japan, there is sheer panic if they go so much as a single dollar into the red.

Anonymous Matt August 30, 2012 11:54 AM  

What is the purpose of government except to uphold property rights, which are violated by acts of fraud?

True, but large chunks of private-sector indebtedness exists due to goverment-perpetuated fraud. Student loan debt is one of the biggest.

It is true (as Nate says) that the housing bubble was private debt. But that misses the point - it was largely enabled by the government via Fed malfeasance and Federal refusal to enforce criminal law against financial-sector fraud.

Blogger Mr. Nightstick August 30, 2012 11:54 AM  

Still spam trapped?

Anonymous Noah B. August 30, 2012 12:00 PM  

"No. the public debt can't be paid back. Not even close. Jeez man Vox and I have both already been through the math on this numerous times."

Totally agree with you. Under the current monetary regime, it is impossible to pay back this debt.

Since the entire monetary system is based on debt, repaying debt shrinks the money supply. Each additional increment of debt then becomes harder to repay than the last. Even if interest were not charged on the public debt, repaying the debt in full would require removing all Federal Reserve notes from circulation and zeroing out all Federal Reserve account balances, in a reversal of the process by which they were created. The imposition of interest on debts (both public and private) means that there can never be enough currency in circulation to fully repay those debts. The result is an intricately woven trap that enslaves virtually everyone.

At the very least, the world should get back to a system of pure fiat currency with no interest required to be paid to central bankers. A gold or silver standard would be much better still.

Anonymous Mrs. Pilgrim August 30, 2012 12:09 PM  

Are we still set for hyperinflation in the next couple years, or is there still a bit of time?

Blogger James Dixon August 30, 2012 12:22 PM  

> And yes... private debt matters.

I didn't say it didn't. I said it wasn't a government concern.

> What is the purpose of government except to uphold property rights, which are violated by acts of fraud?

The fraud is a government concern, but should be handled by the police and the courts. The debt isn't, again except to the extent that the bankruptcy courts handle it.

> No. the public debt can't be paid back.

We'll just have to disagree about that then. We do agree that it won't be.

Anonymous Daniel August 30, 2012 12:24 PM  

Sounds like snake oil, smells like Teen Spirit.

Anonymous Idle Spectator August 30, 2012 12:29 PM  

The trigger for the mathematical point of no return will most likely be a sudden rise in interest rates on the debt.

Inflection Point.

Less mathy: The squiggly line on the graph showing the interest rate will go up really fast suddenly after a certain time.
More mathy: The second derivative d^2I/dt^2 will increase rapidly after time t, with no actual derivatives at interest rate I corresponding to time t due to incontinuity.

Anonymous Curlytop August 30, 2012 12:29 PM  

Oh, poo! OF course it's pure snake oil, but you've missed the point. Per multiple squeals from the impressed female voters on talk radio this morning,

"He told me exactly what I wanted to hear!"

Geez, and people wonder why so many on this blog don't think women should be able to vote. Ignore the facts, Mr. Politician told me what I wanted to hear!!! Doesn't matter if she's 16 or 30, 40, etc... some females never learn.

Anonymous Azimus August 30, 2012 1:23 PM  

FUBAR Nation (Ben) August 30, 2012 10:36 AM
The way that the Ron Paul delegates were treated was the last straw for me.... the entire system is a sham and the government is illegitimate.


All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

Anonymous jartstar August 30, 2012 1:33 PM  

Ryan used an interesting phrase for Medicare," promise". I give him credit for calling it what it is and not a lot liability. At least this convention is watchable unlike the McCain Palin joke.

Anonymous Stilicho August 30, 2012 1:34 PM  

put any surplus toward paying off the debt

If the debt is paid off, official money disappears. Not that that would be a bad thing, but TPTB cannot allow that to happen if they wish to remain TPTB.

The explosion of private debt was caused by the federal reserve

The explosion of private debt was caused by private banks lending fictional money to all and sundry. The Fed's role was the secondary role of creating fiat reserves to place a patina of respectability and liquidity on the profligate private banks.

Blogger carnaby August 30, 2012 1:42 PM  

There's what should be done and what can be done. If R&R ran on a platform of what should be done they could not get elected. So, as a politician, what should one do? The best possible given the state of the electorate, or stick to your guns and then say "I told you so"?

Or the third way... "we'll give you what you want but it won't be enough, so blame yourselves when it all falls apart."?

Anonymous Stilicho August 30, 2012 2:02 PM  

@Carnaby:

They SHOULD tell the truth. They WON'T, since their primary goal is personal power. But, let us assume that there is a hypothetical politician who understands the problem and will try to do the right things if elected, how does he accomplish this? 1) as you understand, he must LIE to get elected (if he told the truth about issues, he becomes immediately "unelectable"); 2) if elected, he must then enact policies which he has likely campaigned against. He will find this impossible for a variety of reasons: political opposition from the other party, political opposition from his own party, opposition from financial sector special interest groups, lobbyists etc., opposition from handout recipients from defense contractors to welfare queens (Jamie Dimon, we're looking at you and Sheniqua from da hood), welfare grannies (cashing those SS checks and racking up medicare bills), subsidized students, unions (public and private), the generally stupid, etc. He would find that he cannot accomplish anything no matter how hard he tries. Hence the futility.

Blogger Good Will August 30, 2012 2:08 PM  

Noah B. August 30, 2012 12:00 PM
"No. the public debt can't be paid back. Not even close. Jeez man Vox and I have both already been through the math on this numerous times."

Totally agree with you. Under the current monetary regime, it is impossible to pay back this debt.

Since the entire monetary system is based on debt, repaying debt shrinks the money supply. Each additional increment of debt then becomes harder to repay than the last. Even if interest were not charged on the public debt, repaying the debt in full would require removing all Federal Reserve notes from circulation and zeroing out all Federal Reserve account balances, in a reversal of the process by which they were created. The imposition of interest on debts (both public and private) means that there can never be enough currency in circulation to fully repay those debts. The result is an intricately woven trap that enslaves virtually everyone.

At the very least, the world should get back to a system of pure fiat currency with no interest required to be paid to central bankers. A gold or silver standard would be much better still.


Well explained.

But "can't be paid back" is not the same as "not able to be retired". We could (should, will) simply build up our military and police forces, offer tax credits and subsidies to stock up on food stuffs and other supplies to last U.S. several years, then default on the debt, tell our (foreign) creditors and the Federal Reserve to go to hell, print up more phony money to distribute to every citizen, pay off our domestic creditors with phony cash, throw up protective tariffs, eat the (horrible) inflation (until the dust settles)...

China will lob our way a few nuclear warheads in retaliation. A half dozen American cities will go up in smoke. The U.S. will retaliate.

And we'll start over.

Anonymous szook August 30, 2012 2:31 PM  

Snake Oil?!? more like Snake Pee.....

Anonymous Noah B. August 30, 2012 2:40 PM  

'But "can't be paid back" is not the same as "not able to be retired".'

Yep. The current monetary regime is going to collapse one way or another. China isn't blameless in this, though. The Chinese government has manipulated its own currency to keep its exports artificially cheap. It has done so at the expense of the Chinese worker, reducing his standard of living in order to increase the government's military might.

Hopefully this won't come to nuclear war, but it could. Meanwhile, who knows if our warheads even work anymore...

Blogger carnaby August 30, 2012 2:52 PM  

Hence the futility.

Yes, that was part of my point. However, one could still do his best to stem the tide in spite of the futility, or maybe better yet to damn the torpedoes and let the liberal dipshits run the boat into the ground. Then we could start over, but there's no reason to think the resulting reset would be any better.

Anonymous Mrs. Pilgrim August 30, 2012 3:15 PM  

All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

What are you proposing as an alternative to letting it run its course?

Anonymous Poopraker August 30, 2012 3:19 PM  

Three choices:

Snake Oil A.

Snake Oil B.

Tar and feather the Snake Oil salesmen.

Anonymous stg58 August 30, 2012 3:21 PM  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvIoURDMItM&feature=autoplay&list=UUvSj_SnAkTC6GBv0qx7TclA&playnext=1

Anonymous Peter Waffleton August 30, 2012 3:56 PM  

"This will pick him up! And lay him down too."

I was watching a PBS documentary last night about Luther. It reiterated the theme about change from the grassroots level, and the central thought of "liberty of conscience."

Perhaps ~500 years later, are we witnessing a 21st century reformer, and his Gutenberg is Mr. Swann? Interesting, that the 16th century reformer, was keen in the minds of both Jefferson and Madison.

So, if history is an accurate guide, and those by their words and actions, didn't intend so, when does the violence begin? And, how long does it last, before civility returns? (specifically Dr. Farrell here, although Barnewall is a worthwhile listen as well)

Speaking of which, a suggestion to the R/R team (if you really do control the RNC apparatus). Let's try re-instituting the area of "specialty lending" of business purpose loans to individuals, and overall reforms of the SBA, to a past era that was proven successful. Then we will know for sure, just what kind of shape we are really in. Of course, these measures would probably not be enough to offset the debt/entitlement issues, and will only prove effective in a post-collapse era...

And they all responded, "Time to Scream!"

Anonymous Starbuck August 30, 2012 3:58 PM  

"Everything in that Ryan quote is completely true. "

No. It isn't. For example... the matter is already settled. The point of no-return was passed about 5 years ago... and all we've done since is stomp the gas.

You people will continue to delude yourself that its not to late to pull the rip cord... even after the sky diver has splattered all over the ground


What Nate says is true. This broken system we now toil under is designed to enslave us all for a one world government. Of which we will have no freedom. I have thought about this and thought about this. This system can't be fixed because it was intended to be broken from the beginning, it is only following its naturual process. What we need to do is abolish it. And this is how my plan would work.

1. No matter who becomes president, rack up the debt to HUGE levels. Mostly defense spending. Make so many damned guns that there would be enough for 10 guns per citizen. Enough ammo so they could shoot hundreds of rounds mer minute for years on end continously. America, armed to the teeth and beyond.

2. Slowly recall all of our military back to the US.. ALL OF IT.

3. Hire new COE's and management officers for every large and mid sized corporations in this country and train them for buisnesses that will function FOR the USA instead of foriegn interests. Small buisnesses are already loyal to USA.. keep these people on hold for a little while.


4. Start training all jobless people. Whine, cry, shut the hell up and learn dammit. Your freedom depends on it. When the plan comes to execute - get a job and work for your sustinance.

5. Once the military is back home, secure oil and gas in this country... especially in alaska. Develope low cost power or even re-develope low cost power, coal for starters.

6. Invade the federal reserve and all other foriegn banks. Fire all the american employees that ran the day to day buisness, give them 2 pay to find another job.

7. Blow the UN headquaters in NYC into a big heap of smoking materials, without warning.

8. Announce to the world that the USA will not participate in a world government. Anyone trying to force her will be destroyed. Period.

9. Put the USA back on the gold standard and make congress issue constitutional money.

10. Brace and be ready for any invasion coming from abroad.


I know.. I know.. I don't know what I am talking about. But I still think it would work.
Better then the road we are heading down.

Anonymous George August 30, 2012 4:20 PM  

Morrison said:

"The so called Christians in the Republican Party have offered us a cultist and an atheist as leaders."

Which is the atheist and which is the cultist?

Anonymous George August 30, 2012 4:26 PM  

Tom M. Said:

"Term Limits. Balanced Budget Amendment. Abolish Fed. Get Money out of Politics. Consumption Tax."

I understand the basic logistics for implementing all the above proposals, except for the Money in politics. Ironically, this is the most important.

How exactly does one do that? The only possible way is to amend the constitution and to do so in a way that the new amendment does not conflict with the first amendment.

Anonymous Stilicho August 30, 2012 4:33 PM  

Which is the atheist and which is the cultist?

The atheist is the one who does not believe in God. The cultist is the one who believes he is a god.

Anonymous a good ROI August 30, 2012 4:49 PM  

OT... VD, for your anti-apple files: http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/08/drone-app/

Anonymous Azimus August 30, 2012 4:54 PM  

George August 30, 2012 4:26 PM Tom M. Said:

"Term Limits. Balanced Budget Amendment. Abolish Fed. Get Money out of Politics. Consumption Tax."

I understand the basic logistics for implementing all the above proposals, except for the Money in politics. Ironically, this is the most important.

How exactly does one do that?


Decentralize decentralize decentralize. In 2010 the US population was 308 million to be divided amongst 435 representatives, meaning 710,000 people per "representative". In 1800 the US population was 5.3 million divided by 106 representatives, meaning 50,000 people per representative. Returning to the ratio of 1800, we would have 6,100 representatives, who would be VERY close to their constituents, and how much chicanery can you accomplish with 1/14 of the corruption money per Congressman?

Now, of course, this is asinine. But it demonstrates the point that decentralizing makes it MUCH more expensive, maybe impossible, to "own" the entire body politic.

Also, what I call "term limits for laws" should also be in effect. No law at the Federal level, except those enshrined in the Constitution, can be made effective permanently, with a sunset of let's say 6yrs. This allows the country not to be swallowed by the inertia of it's own mistakes, to reset and be more adaptive and allow at least SOME room for common sense. Also, frankly, it turns the tables on advocates for centralized, centrally controlled governments who would be required to justify their massive bureacratic budgets regularly, and gives the high ground to advocates for smaller, decentralized government.

Both these strategies would disperse and decentralize the "Money in politics." That isn't to say, then, that there would be no corruption, no political machines, etc. But it would turn the machine into something that is small enough to be busted up and reformed by ordinary, decent people.

Anonymous Azimus August 30, 2012 4:59 PM  

OT - Two pretty d*mned good comments of mine disappeared today. At least I thought they were good. Sigh. Is this happening to anyone else?

Anonymous Outlaw X August 30, 2012 5:06 PM  

Vox, all we need to know about econ right now is Genesis ch: 47. How to enslave a people. Advanced knowledge And being enough of an ass to do it. Joseph was an asshole. He enslaved the people not unlike the bankers.

http://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=Genesis+47&version=NIV

Blogger LP 999/Eliza August 30, 2012 5:24 PM  

Two choices: banker trash A, banker trash B. It doesn't change the issue of millions of Americans who need employment when it is clear that outsourcing, deindustrialization, a non recovering economy and major corruption is taking place across the board.

Anonymous Azimus August 30, 2012 5:53 PM  

Starbuck August 30, 2012 3:58 PM
What Nate says is true. This broken system we now toil under is designed to enslave us all for a one world government. Of which we will have no freedom. I have thought about this and thought about this. This system can't be fixed because it was intended to be broken from the beginning, it is only following its naturual process. What we need to do is abolish it. And this is how my plan would work.... Points 1 - 10.


An interesting list Starbuck. I'm trying to think what my "Ten Point Plan" would be:

1. Return to a commodity-backed currency (gold is nice but is there enough of it? food? energy? I've had some intriguing conversations on what an energy-backed currency would look like).
2. Bring all the troops to US territory or posessions and withdraw from NATO (both these are de-facto of #1 due to being unable to afford it)
3. Eliminate the patchwork of corporate exemptions and loopholes in the tax code and other codes
4. Bring back meaningful anti-trust laws
5. Consumption Tax
6. Revoke unqualified universal suffrage and tie the right to vote to any one of several provable "buy-ins" - military service, paying taxes, elected office, volunteer civil service (constable, first responder), etc.
7. Term limits - for civil servants AND for Federal laws (except those enshrined in the Constitution - say a 6yr sunset for everything else including taxes)
8. Overturn the Kelo decision and eliminate property tax for occupied property - inotherwords make the people the owners again and not just renters from the crown. Taxing unoccupied properties would discourage idiotic over-development, would still give local governments the right to seize abandoned property and avoid Detroit, and would not effect ordinary people.
9. Require people on disability/social welfare programs to live in government housing to receive their payment OR work.
10. Manned mission to Mars and back! (I ran out of ideas)

Anonymous johnc August 30, 2012 6:07 PM  

> Romney plans to ramp up US defense spending at 4% of GDP. We are at about 2.8% now.

All I'm finding is that we're at like 5-6% in 2012. Where do you get 2.8% from?

Blogger Vox August 30, 2012 6:07 PM  

It's very possible (probable?) that Ryan (and Romney too) know what the numbers really say. But you can't say what's necessary and actually get elected. He might as well personally star in a commercial of himself pushing grandma off a cliff.

So, the ideal scenario is that you're voting for someone you hope is lying. Brilliant. You get that if he's lying about that, he very well might be lying about other things... things have inspired you to support him, right?

Blogger Vox August 30, 2012 6:19 PM  

There's what should be done and what can be done. If R&R ran on a platform of what should be done they could not get elected. So, as a politician, what should one do? The best possible given the state of the electorate, or stick to your guns and then say "I told you so"?

Tell the truth. If the people don't want the truth, you don't get to be president. It would be better to launch a violent military coup than lie your way into office.

Anonymous Redlegben August 30, 2012 7:22 PM  

Tell the truth. If the people don't want the truth, you don't get to be president. It would be better to launch a violent military coup than lie your way into office.

Why? How would it be better to launch violence instead of lying? If you intend to do the same things either way, I would think the lying would be be better in most metrics.

Anonymous Grinder August 30, 2012 8:17 PM  

To me the main problem is the survival of the white race. Inhabitants of America need to separate along racial lines and battle it out for supremacy over North America. Non-whites need to be repatriated to their continents of origin, abriginals to reservations. Debt to non-whites will be repudiated. Property and assets of jews will be seized to cover deposits lost by whites. Traitors will be hanged. The race war needs a sufficiently grievous event or series of events to trigger it. The worsening economy from the perspective of ordinary white workers and non-whites is steadily creating the ideal conditions for this to occur. A national socialist system is the only way to break the build-expand-overreach-collapse-death cycle we are in.

Anonymous FREEDOM LOVER! Om Shanti Om August 30, 2012 8:43 PM  

Romney was a pastor and a missionary. Also very problematic to have someone like that as the face of the United States

Anonymous Jack Nicklebag August 30, 2012 9:31 PM  

Why? How would it be better to launch violence instead of lying? If you intend to do the same things either way, I would think the lying would be be better in most metrics.

It would be less honorable, Redlegben, and you don't see that as a problem, which is why:

YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!

Anonymous Rabbinic zen0 August 30, 2012 9:36 PM  

Property and assets of jews will be seized to cover deposits lost by whites.

Grinder, man, you know when the financial blogs refer to J-hole tomorrow, they are actually doing a play on the Jackson Hole conference and infering it is "Jew-hole", right.

Anonymous Redlegben August 30, 2012 9:47 PM  

It would be less honorable, Redlegben, and you don't see that as a problem, which is why:

YOU CAN'T HANDLE THE TRUTH!


I guess being part of the blunt instrument of diplomacy has limited my willingness to rush into violence. Being a side line sitter when it comes to actual implementation of violence must be a fun theoretical place to live.

Anonymous zen0 August 30, 2012 10:01 PM  

Being a side line sitter when it comes to actual implementation of violence must be a fun theoretical place to live.

If one thinks lying is superior to honor the best move is not to play.

Anonymous Redlegben August 30, 2012 10:13 PM  

...but starting a civil war would be honorable?

I would say lying is preferable to starting a civil war. That may only be my opinion, but I don't understand the metric one would use to defend such a position.

Anonymous Matt August 30, 2012 10:20 PM  

A national socialist system is the only way to break the build-expand-overreach-collapse-death cycle we are in.

Yes, if there's one thing history has taught us it's that National Socialism is good at preventing collapse and death...

Wait, what?

Anonymous The other skeptic August 30, 2012 10:22 PM  

10. Manned mission to Mars and back! (I ran out of ideas)

Well, we did one of those (to the moon), and then stopped. Going to Mars is much harder and much more expensive and much less likely to keep the great unwashed interested.

Of course, we could make the Old Negro Space Program, or is that the Old Muslim Space Program, real this time around. NOT.

Blogger R. Bradley Andrews August 30, 2012 10:23 PM  

MRs. P,

"Are we still set for hyperinflation in the next couple years, or is there still a bit of time?"

I think Vox wrote here earlier that these kinds of things tend to delay longer than they possibly can, but end up being far worse than anyone envisioned.

I suspect the charade will go on for a decade or more. I have no idea how, but then I was convinced we were headed for the dump in the early 1990s.

Anonymous zen0 August 30, 2012 10:32 PM  

I would say lying is preferable to starting a civil war. That may only be my opinion, but I don't understand the metric one would use to defend such a position.

So now you are equating a civil war with a violent coup?
Your "metrics" cannot be trusted to be accurate, and your reading comprehension is suspect.

Please stop and reflect before typing.

Anonymous Redlegben August 30, 2012 10:41 PM  

How do you propose to launch a violent military coup without a civil war?
We can't have a court ruling for the LAPD without propagating civil unrest leading to murders, rapes, and looting.

Why would launching a violent military coup be more honorable than lying?

Anonymous The other skeptic August 30, 2012 10:42 PM  

Infowars says that Obama's false flag is hot.

Maybe they are going to bring us Zombie Osama bin Laden attacks New York.

Anonymous zen0 August 30, 2012 10:50 PM  

Why would launching a violent military coup be more honorable than lying?

Great Googly Mooly, man. Do you ever listen to yourself?

You can't use honor and lying as equivocal terms. Lying is not honorable. Don't get hung up on the violence element.

Duh.

Anonymous The other skeptic August 30, 2012 10:54 PM  

You can't use honor and lying as equivocal terms

I don't think that term means what you think it means

Anonymous III August 30, 2012 10:54 PM  

Meh. All the talk about what we should do. Face the fact that they will continue to do what they are doing until it all comes to its end. The fed itself, and its enablers, is but a shadow of the Beast system. It may be you, or your children, or their children... but rest assured, you will worship the Beast, or be hunted down and executed.

All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing.

So... where are all the good men?

Anonymous FREEDOM LOVER! Om Shanti Om August 30, 2012 10:56 PM  

Oh god we've got some Charlie Mansons on here with Helter Skelter Race War Theory. It will never happen.

Meanwhile just now live from the Republican Convention, Romney said "my wife's job as a mom is more important than mine."

Anonymous FREEDOM LOVER! Om Shanti Om August 30, 2012 11:00 PM  

"10. Manned mission to Mars and back! (I ran out of ideas)"

Obama has a plan for that actually. But I don't want my tax money going to exploiting foreign countries OR other planets.

We need to fix our own country first, then our planet, before we go somewhere else and ruin it.

Anonymous zen0 August 30, 2012 11:02 PM  

Meanwhile just now live from the Republican Convention, Romney said "my wife's job as a mom is more important than mine."


Can she bake an apple pie, Billy boy, Billy boy. Can she bake an apple pie, charmin' Billy???

Anonymous FREEDOM LOVER! Om Shanti Om August 30, 2012 11:10 PM  

PS: now Romney is saying he will "protect the freedom of religion" yet he served overseas as a missionary and a subtext appeared on the TV screen saying that many Morman males between 19-25 become missionaries and Morman females 21-15.

So how does he reconcile protecting religious freedom with harboring a major fetish for aggressively proseltyizing on behalf of just one religion - his?

Anonymous Outlaw X August 30, 2012 11:16 PM  

Boys and girls I am watching Romney, he sounds like Reagan. I Don't say this lightly, he kicked Obama's ass. BEWARE OCTOBER.

Vox was pondering Obomamas half ass effort because he is lazy. This is true and he will be routed by Romney, but he has already been told not to worry. That is why he don't care. Those dug in commies will kill half the World and laugh about it. Vox is wrong about one thing Obama's team is alive and well.

Anonymous JP (real one) August 30, 2012 11:18 PM  

>> Romney was a pastor and a missionary. Also very problematic to have someone like that as the face of the United States <<

I'm no fan of Romney or his Mormonism, but that's a ridiculous statement. I'd be more than happy to have certain pastors/missionaries in the Oval Office.

I guess you prefer community organizers and pseud-academics.

No matter who is in the White House, they'll push their religous (or anti-religious) preferences on the populace. No one is neutral.

Anonymous Redlegben August 30, 2012 11:24 PM  

zen0, try again with the understanding of the term equivocal. I don't mean that condescendingly. I honestly don't understand the point you are trying to make.

Violent was the original descriptor of the military coup.

Anonymous Outlaw X August 30, 2012 11:39 PM  

I know Vox nor SB deleted my post it is gone. So I am going to save this one and condense it. Romney sounded like Reagan and kicked Obamas ass. Vox said Obama has been doing a half ass campaign, well that's because the commies are going to cause hell in October. BEWARE OCTOBER.

He has lost this and the commies are going to do something in October. These people won't stop, while Obama Golfs.

Anonymous The other skeptic August 30, 2012 11:44 PM  

No matter who is in the White House, they'll push their religous (or anti-religious) preferences on the populace. No one is neutral

Actually, no matter who is in the White House, they will push their puppet master's religious (or anti-religious) preferences on the populace.

Blogger A Conservative Teacher August 31, 2012 12:20 AM  

Vox, so you're voting for the other guy who is going to run up trillions in deficits every year? I'm surprised that you've become such a hard-core liberal Democrat.

Anonymous FREEDOM LOVER! Om Shanti Om August 31, 2012 12:20 AM  

"I'm no fan of Romney or his Mormonism, but that's a ridiculous statement. I'd be more than happy to have certain pastors/missionaries in the Oval Office."

> Missionaryism is very problematic. I've seen it first hand, lived it.

"I guess you prefer community organizers and pseud-academics."

> No. Neither reflect my values in the least.

"No matter who is in the White House, they'll push their religous (or anti-religious) preferences on the populace. No one is neutral."

An agnostic might be neutral. American Buddhists are also quite fair-minded. I've heard a few Hare Krishnas are also in politics. They're cool.

Anonymous Rod Freeman August 31, 2012 12:31 AM  

Until the American people understand that the political class is the one and only reason why they find themselves in every single one of the economic, social and environmental problems they are facing... until they stop voting, stop obeying, stop complying and start just ignoring government and building resilient communities that operate away from government guns nothing will change.

Anonymous III August 31, 2012 12:31 AM  

Romney sounded like Reagan...

So what! Reagan and his buddy Ollie are nothing more than the precursor to the national police state. It just needed a catalyst and you/they got it. Sure, he gave some fine speeches. They all give fine speeches. Romney is no different.

Anonymous FREEDOM LOVER! Om Shanti Om August 31, 2012 12:41 AM  

Rod, I agree with you 100% and never voted in my life. Reagan? He funnelled billions of tax dollars into the ridiculous "war on drugs" and built the prison industrial complex we have today!

The US has more prisons than any other nation on earth - combined! Do we really have that many "criminals"?

NO.

As far as speeches go, Hillary beats both Barack and Mitt in delivery and fervor.

And no, I wouldn't vote for her either.

Anonymous Gen. Kong August 31, 2012 2:21 AM  

Even Larry Auster - who understands little of economics and is generally hostile to libertarian notions of dismantling the state apparat, has finally come to the conclusion that the Repukes are a farce. Now I'm not expecting him to unplug from the matrix all the way and admit that the two nominal parties are but two squads of the same team who play different roles in the little Kabuki play written by the Babylonian vampire-squids in charge, but he's finally starting to see that the Repukes are just a lie.

It's been yet another predictable Repuke "nomination" of yet another "rock-solid Reaganite sooper-dooper conservative". The amusing thing is watching all the totally deluded tea-partiers, Christians, etc. who are so pathetically desperate that they'll guzzle the same stale recycled Kool-Aid (the mostest important erection eeehhvaaahhh) one more time. The squids have to be laughing uproariously about the whole farce. The level of idiocracy is simply breathtaking - rape them over and they just keep coming back for more. At least the overlords provided some entertainment back when they put up a stupid, affirmative-action banksta, old crazy-eyes and a bogus constitutionalist stalking horse back in the spring. Willard Mittens was their choice all along - just as Housenigga Hussein is. Whichever way the the cookie crumbles you get banksta. The little folded up message is always the same, too: Heads we win, tails you lose!

Anonymous VD August 31, 2012 3:41 AM  

Vox, so you're voting for the other guy who is going to run up trillions in deficits every year? I'm surprised that you've become such a hard-core liberal Democrat.

I have never voted for either a Republican or a Democrat for president. The fact that I won't vote for Romney doesn't mean that I will vote for Obama. I don't vote for the bi-factional ruling party.

Blogger Tank August 31, 2012 8:27 AM  

Vox at 6:07

You have a reading comprehension problem.

Or, you need to stop drinking now.

Anonymous Beau September 01, 2012 8:42 PM  

So... where are all the good men?

Visiting the sick and imprisoned, feeding the hungry, providing shelter ~ and of foremost importance ~ proclaiming the gospel. Opportunities abound, apply in person.

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