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Friday, August 03, 2012

U3 vs EPR

It's not the 8.3% U3 that matters, but rather the 58.4% EPR, which is down 0.2% from last month. That means unemployment is still rising as a percentage of the population, regardless of the number of new jobs reported.

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49 Comments:

Anonymous JartStar August 03, 2012 10:20 AM  

I'm starting to wonder if this depression is becoming, or always was, regional. Depending upon what area of the country you live in there are plenty of jobs and growth. Will this disparity continue, or will the overall decline drag everyone down in unison? It will be interesting to see how states handle this over the next couple of years.

Anonymous Bono August 03, 2012 10:22 AM  

Do they calculate the U2 "With or without you"?...

Anonymous Weak August 03, 2012 10:30 AM  

Jartstar has a good point that seems to be constantly overlooked. TGD 2.0 seems assymetric. Manufacturing has been hurt. Public service is booming. Illinois is sliding, the Dakotas have never had it so good.

So I wonder if the assymetry by geography and industry is typical of depressions, or a function of the current one. My economics expertise consists of reading RGD and taking two classes at Kent State, so I have no idea. Hoping the Ilk can enlighten.

Blogger Vox August 03, 2012 10:39 AM  

So I wonder if the assymetry by geography and industry is typical of depressions, or a function of the current one.

It's typical. That's why people tend to migrate a lot during depressions.

Blogger JACIII August 03, 2012 10:41 AM  

There are regions of prosperity and even boom times, but it seems to be due to foreign investment on a huge scale, at least the areas I am familiar with.

Whether the regions doing well hold out for the storm will be interesting to see.

Anonymous zen0 August 03, 2012 10:43 AM  

Saying public service is booming is like saying the food stamp industry is booming.

Blogger JACIII August 03, 2012 10:43 AM  

Hyundai, Mercedes, TK, and Airbus (there may be more)have placed Alabama upon their shoulders with billions of dollars in new construction. It is quite fascinating to see.

Anonymous The other skeptic August 03, 2012 10:47 AM  

In Silicon Valley, it seems that once you become unemployed it is hard to get re-employed, although I am basing that view not on knowing anyone who is unemployed in Silicon Valley.

I am basing it solely on the fact that the headhunters keep contacting me and people I know who are employed and people within companies I know who are reluctant to hire inexperienced and unknown people as well as those who have lost their jobs. It seems less risky to squeeze more work out of people than to take on someone unknown who will be hard to fire if they turn out badly.

Anonymous Josh August 03, 2012 10:51 AM  

South texas, north dakota, and the rest of the oil and gas regions are booming.

My advice: go get a cdl and become a truck driver. Move to an oil play.

Blogger Joshua_D August 03, 2012 10:51 AM  

The depression will be regional, just like the Great Depression was regional. I was talking with a coworker about "the economy" the other day, and he mentioned a similar story.

My coworker, probably in hlate 40s, had talked to some great and great-great grand parents when they were alive, and they said a lot of folks around here, western NC, did know there was any depression going on.

Of course, the folks are here were historically poorer than a lot of other folks.

It's all a matter of perspective, and preparation, combined with your lottery in life.

Anonymous zen0 August 03, 2012 10:52 AM  

Just visited zerohedge. chart their says the sector that is not adding any jobs in the past year but is cutting back is government.

Interesting.

Anonymous Daniel August 03, 2012 10:52 AM  

But, even citizens are getting into the job creation gig. Just think of the wealth this single unemployed guy created in about 15 minutes of work.

Anonymous Mr. Nightstick August 03, 2012 10:58 AM  

It's hard to be gloomy today. I've been listening(and watching some) Shania Twain videos at work. Also found out she's gonna be in Vegas the next two years. Life is good.

Blogger Joshua_D August 03, 2012 11:05 AM  

Daniel August 03, 2012 10:52 AM

But, even citizens are getting into the job creation gig. Just think of the wealth this single unemployed guy created in about 15 minutes of work.


Now that's funny.

Obviously, tractors belong in the hands of soldiers, not criminals.

Anonymous Weak August 03, 2012 11:05 AM  

Zen0, I would definitely say the food stamp sector is booming. Just because it is stupid, wasteful and counterproductive doesn't mean it's not true.

Anonymous JartStar August 03, 2012 11:06 AM  

Yes, Texas is one of the good places right now. Unfortunately hundreds of thousands of Californians are relocating their businesses here which means they will bring their version of stupid with them.

Of course it could be that the smart Californians are leaving and coming here recognizing the business friendly and conservative values that are now lacking in California.

Blogger Joshua_D August 03, 2012 11:13 AM  

JartStar August 03, 2012 11:06 AM

Of course it could be that the smart Californians are leaving ...


It's nice to see such optimism.

Anonymous JartStar August 03, 2012 11:23 AM  

It's nice to see such optimism.

It could be a case of dumb and dumber, but certainly the "smart" ones aren't staying in California.

Anonymous jack August 03, 2012 12:06 PM  

JACIII August 03, 2012 10:43 AM

Hyundai, Mercedes, TK, and Airbus (there may be more)have placed Alabama upon their shoulders with billions of dollars in new construction. It is quite fascinating to see.

I live in AL. The local municipalities bend over backwards to get the car companies in and, couple that with a reasonably good and stable work force, viola! And, the relative lack of unions and no real interest of car workers making 20 bucks an hour to risk that with organizing. Did I mention AL is a right to work state?

Of course, in a full fledged, world wide failure of economy, few will be buying cars.

Anonymous Daniel August 03, 2012 12:31 PM  

Joshua_D

Now that's funny.

Obviously, tractors belong in the hands of soldiers, not criminals.


What's even funnier is that the cops couldn't figure out how to shoot the tires of a tractor, moving at about 5 miles per hour, at point. blank. range.

Now, tractor tires are tough animals, and I personally have run the rubber-free rim of an old John Deere 40 over a smashed wooden fence without any problem, so it might not have done anything, but the fact that such shooting action didn't even occur to them tells me everything I need to know about that department.

I mean, come on boys. Free shots at a tractor. You said no to that?

Whoops. Way OT.

Anonymous Stilicho August 03, 2012 12:39 PM  

Whoops. Way OT.

Smashing cop cars is never OT.

Anonymous chillywilly August 03, 2012 12:44 PM  

"Smashing cop cars is never OT. - Stilicho"

And Daniel did mention using firearms, as well.
Never OT either. ;)

Anonymous Vidad August 03, 2012 12:47 PM  

I took advantage of the stability of TN to sell out there and move to now-cheap post-boom FL. There's very little in the way of employment or growth in my area, which is fine by me. And... very nice winters.

If you can work from home and carry no debt, the bust can be your friend.

Blogger Joshua_D August 03, 2012 12:50 PM  

Stilicho August 03, 2012 12:39 PM

Smashing cop cars is never OT.


And, since everything at my house is the equivalent of an AK-47 (that should only belong in the hands of a soldier), I'm thinking it's a free-for-all.

1. Guns are never OT.
2. Everything is a gun.
3. Everything is never OT.

Anonymous Cheddarman August 03, 2012 12:51 PM  

Back on topic...smashing more cop cars with tractors will stimulate the economy, since the cop cars need to be replaced.

To hell with the broken window fallacy,
Think of all the people that benefit...the tow truck guy, the local scrap guy, the car dealer guy, the cross country auto hauling truck driver, the auto workers, and the people who customize the cop cars...the prison guards who will be needed to incarcerate the irate farmer...I am going to apply for a Government grant to study the economic aspects of this

Blogger IM2L844 August 03, 2012 12:58 PM  

It's typical. That's why people tend to migrate a lot during depressions.

Will this intrastate migration tend to eventually have a smoothing effect on the geographic economic asymmetries or something else?

Blogger Joshua_D August 03, 2012 1:04 PM  

IM2L844 August 03, 2012 12:58 PM

Will this intrastate migration tend to eventually have a smoothing effect on the geographic economic asymmetries or something else?


Try to think of it in 3D.

Blogger IM2L844 August 03, 2012 1:25 PM  

Try to think of it in 3D.

Yeah, I was. Hence the question of whether the advances and declines in population densities will necessarily have a proportional smoothing effect on the prosperity specifically between those geographic areas relative to those advances and declines in population densities or will there likely be unintended deleterious consequences from the intrastate migrations that will make matters worse in an overall sense. Did I really need to walk you through all that?

Anonymous Vidad August 03, 2012 1:34 PM  

By "3D," I think Joshua_D was actually thinking of colonizing the planets.

Blogger Joshua_D August 03, 2012 1:36 PM  

IM2L844 August 03, 2012 1:25 PM

Yeah, I was. Hence the question of whether the advances and declines in population densities will necessarily have a proportional smoothing effect on the prosperity specifically between those geographic areas relative to those advances and declines in population densities or will there likely be unintended deleterious consequences from the intrastate migrations that will make matters worse in an overall sense. Did I really need to walk you through all that?


No, you didn't But to answer your question: Yes.

Blogger Joshua_D August 03, 2012 1:37 PM  

Vidad August 03, 2012 1:34 PM
By "3D," I think Joshua_D was actually thinking of colonizing the planets.


That works for me.

Anonymous Stilicho August 03, 2012 1:51 PM  

Hence the question of whether the advances and declines in population densities will necessarily have a proportional smoothing effect on the prosperity specifically between those geographic areas relative to those advances and declines in population densities or will there likely be unintended deleterious consequences from the intrastate migrations that will make matters worse in an overall sense.

What do you mean? An African or European swallow?

Blogger IM2L844 August 03, 2012 1:58 PM  

No, you didn't But to answer your question: Yes.

There was only one yes or no question, but I can't decide if you are actually confounded or just trying to be funny.

Blogger IM2L844 August 03, 2012 2:01 PM  

What do you mean? An African or European swallow?

Are one of those of the San Juan Capistrano variety?

Anonymous Vitus_Bering August 03, 2012 2:04 PM  

Jack, unless you were suddenly inserting your excitement over a stringed instrument, you probably meant "voila!" Not "viola!"

Blogger Joshua_D August 03, 2012 2:08 PM  

IM2L844 August 03, 2012 1:58 PM

There was only one yes or no question, but I can't decide if you are actually confounded or just trying to be funny.


I'm just giving you a hard time, because that's really not a yes or no question. That question is very complex. There is a lot contained is the "or" part of your question.

You can always assume that I'm trying to be funny, but I'm often the only one who thinks I'm funny.

Blogger IM2L844 August 03, 2012 2:26 PM  

...but I'm often the only one who thinks I'm funny.

Same here. I crack me up. As long as we can make ourselves laugh, who cares what anybody else thinks.

Blogger IM2L844 August 03, 2012 2:28 PM  

Does a rhetorical question really need a question mark at the end of it.

Blogger JohnG August 03, 2012 3:23 PM  

It will be interesting to see the unemployment numbers in September, I work for General Dynamics and they've already given out pink slips effective 20 September...and it was big/lots. There hasn't been any retraction.

Blogger IM2L844 August 03, 2012 3:49 PM  

OT, but I'm a little surprised that Vox hasn't yet posted on how the great Chick-Fil-A flap has become a Gay Fillet Flop.

Anonymous Grinder August 03, 2012 4:00 PM  

I'm starting to wonder if this depression is becoming, or always was, regional. Depending upon what area of the country you live in there are plenty of jobs and growth. Will this disparity continue, or will the overall decline drag everyone down in unison? It will be interesting to see how states handle this over the next couple of years.

The fed gov't gets deeper into debt by 9% of GDP per year and the economy grows by 2% per year. I wonder if those booming areas would still be prospering if the earnings of future generations weren't being spent so freely today. The situation is worse than it looks because this life support is not sustainable.

Anonymous Daniel August 03, 2012 5:10 PM  

By "3D," I think Joshua_D was actually thinking of colonizing the planets.

We already did that with this one.

I think we need a different plan.

I think Jack is onto something and second his call for an increased production in markets such as the burgeoning one for the viola! or at the very least, banjo!

We could call it supply side metronomics.

Blogger Joshua_D August 03, 2012 6:03 PM  

Daniel August 03, 2012 5:10 PM
We could call it supply side metronomics.


That would be Supply-Side Metronomics!

Who doesn't like SSM? Wait a minute ...

Anonymous Clay August 03, 2012 7:08 PM  

I live in the Deep South of Mississipi. 180 miles from the Gulf.

If you want a job, you can get it.

Anonymous Clay August 03, 2012 7:10 PM  

Forgot my other "p".

Anonymous WaterBoy August 03, 2012 7:25 PM  

See, Clay, that's what happens when you don't mind your P's and Q's....

Anonymous jack August 03, 2012 10:13 PM  

Vitus_Bering August 03, 2012 2:04 PM

Jack, unless you were suddenly inserting your excitement over a stringed instrument, you probably meant "voila!" Not "viola!"

It was a feeble attempt at a pun. Along with the idea of a stable economy based on skinning rabbits.

Now, skinning politicians...there may be something there.

Anonymous Clay August 04, 2012 12:06 AM  

Ya Goober:}

Thanks.

Anonymous E. PERLINE August 04, 2012 3:11 PM  

I was in the navy in WW2 escorting convoys, and a merchant ship was torpedoed and it settled lower but it wouldn't sink. It presented a navigation hazard so we were ordered to sink it. We hit it with a half dozen shells and it still wouldn't sink. It seemed to be unsinkable. So we left it.

A week later we heard that it finally sank all by itself. Could that be like today's economy?

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