ALL BLOG POSTS AND COMMENTS COPYRIGHT (C) 2003-2014 VOX DAY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED.

Monday, September 10, 2012

Macchiavelli on immigration

One of the great benefits of reading history is that one often learns that one's thoughts are neither new nor original. Consider how the implications of Machiavelli's observations concerning how Fabius Maximus earned his agnomen relate to present US demographics:

From the readiness wherewith the Romans conferred the right of citizenship on foreigners, there came to be so many new citizens in Rome, and possessed of so large a share of the suffrage, that the government itself began to alter, forsaking those courses which it was accustomed to follow, and growing estranged from the men to whom it had before looked for guidance. Which being observed by Quintius Fabius when censor, he caused all those new citizens to be classed in four Tribes, that being reduced within this narrow limit they might not have it in their power to corrupt the entire State. And this was a wisely contrived measure, for, without introducing any violent change, it supplied a convenient remedy, and one so acceptable to the republic as to gain for Fabius the well-deserved name of Maximus.
- CHAPTER XLIX, Discourses on the First Decade of Titus Livius

The Romans segregated four tribes out of thirty-five in order to prevent the corruption and collapse of their republic. The Hispanic influx into the USA is roughly equivalent to the percentage of the Roman population that belonged to the four urban tribes, but because their vote has not been limited in a similar fashion, the political corruption they brought with them has not been limited. It is not an accident that the worst abuses of the housing bubble took place in the Hispanic-heavy states of the Southwest. Since the USA did not follow the Roman lead, we can reasonably conclude that the US political system will collapse in considerably less time than the 233 years it took for the Roman system to be rendered moot by Julius Caesar.

As I have repeatedly said, I expect it to take place within 21 years, by 2033.

Labels: ,

94 Comments:

Blogger Positive Dennis September 10, 2012 1:10 PM  

You could argue that it already has collapsed. Long slow decline is what I think will happen, with an occasional Grand Mal seizure.

Anonymous jack September 10, 2012 1:11 PM  

There are times when I wished you were not such an avid reader of history. Or, at least, lacked the comprehension to understand and relate same to the modern day.

Darn it; it was such a nice day today.

Anonymous szook September 10, 2012 1:17 PM  

That's just so...so...Machiavellian.

Anonymous Jake September 10, 2012 1:17 PM  

"It is not an accident that the worst abuses of the housing bubble took place in the Hispanic-heavy states of the Southwest."

Can you elaborate on the connection here? How did the concentration of Hispanics contribute to the severity of the housing bubble? What's the causality driving the correlation?

Anonymous Nah September 10, 2012 1:18 PM  

Immigration is not the cause of the corruption that will lead to the downfall of the Republic.

Immigration is the consequence of the corruption in a Republic that was long ago destroyed.

The Republic created by the founding fathers was certainly destroyed in 1933 (if not 1865). Mass immigration was merely a delayed consequence of this.

Anonymous VD September 10, 2012 1:26 PM  

Can you elaborate on the connection here? How did the concentration of Hispanics contribute to the severity of the housing bubble? What's the causality driving the correlation?

Most of the sub-prime loans took place in just four states. Hispanics took out a lot of them because they could not otherwise qualify for hoam loans. The causality is that Hispanics were specifically targeted by the mortgage banks and they were disproportionately responsible for taking out loans they had no hope of every repaying.

From Steve Sailer: Mortgage dollars (prime and subprime) for home purchases loaned to Hispanics went up 691% from 1999 to 2006 and 397% for blacks (but only 218% for Asians and about 100% for whites). In other words, mortgage lending to Hispanics almost octupled from 1999 to the peak of the Housing Bubble in 2006. Thus, a sizable majority of defaulted dollars lost are in just four heavily Hispanic states: California, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida (what Wall Street called the "Sand States").

Blogger ClarkAspen September 10, 2012 1:31 PM  

Interesting prediction. By the way, how did the prediction that the Lizard Queen becoming president turn out?

Blogger ClarkAspen September 10, 2012 1:31 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Astrosmith September 10, 2012 1:40 PM  

So will that collapse look something like this?

When the Music Stops

Anonymous Josh September 10, 2012 1:42 PM  

How do you expect it to last until 2033?

I don't think that extend and pretend can go on for twenty more years.


And don't say Japan did it for twenty...their trade surplus enabled them to waste trillions on stimulus while still enjoying zirp.

Anonymous VD September 10, 2012 1:46 PM  

By the way, how did the prediction that the Lizard Queen becoming president turn out?

Not quite as well as the one to not invest in housing in 2002. Or the one to buy gold at $300. Or the one that predicted Sarah Palin would be the Republican VP candidate. Or the one that predicted Mitt Romney would be the Republican nominee in 2012. Or that the stock market would begin to bounce back in March 2009. Or that Obama would not end the various wars, but would increase US military involvement in them instead. Or, for that matter, the one that the Lizard Queen would not run for president in 2004.

Anonymous George September 10, 2012 1:57 PM  

VD said:

"As I have repeatedly said, I expect it [collapse of the U.S. political system] to take place within 21 years, by 2033."

What would amount to a "collapse"?

Anonymous Daniel September 10, 2012 2:10 PM  

Collapse?

I'm fond of the map drawn up by Aces and Eights, with a few modern exceptions in the details.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera September 10, 2012 2:13 PM  

Deuteronomy 23 on immigrants:

"3 No Ammonite or Moabite or any of their descendants may enter the assembly of the Lord, not even in the tenth generation. 4 For they did not come to meet you with bread and water on your way when you came out of Egypt, and they hired Balaam son of Beor from Pethor in Aram Naharaim[c] to pronounce a curse on you. 5 However, the Lord your God would not listen to Balaam but turned the curse into a blessing for you, because the Lord your God loves you. 6 Do not seek a treaty of friendship with them as long as you live.

7 Do not despise an Edomite, for the Edomites are related to you. Do not despise an Egyptian, because you resided as foreigners in their country. 8 The third generation of children born to them may enter the assembly of the Lord."

Also:

"15 If a slave has taken refuge with you, do not hand them over to their master. 16 Let them live among you wherever they like and in whatever town they choose. Do not oppress them."

Of particular interest, given the recent subprime home lending:

"19 Do not charge a fellow Israelite interest, whether on money or food or anything else that may earn interest. 20 You may charge a foreigner interest, but not a fellow Israelite, so that the Lord your God may bless you in everything you put your hand to in the land you are entering to possess.

(The torah has a lot of interesting stuff to say about lending practices.)

Anonymous Aeoli Pera September 10, 2012 2:14 PM  

(As a proper noun, "Torah" should be capitalized in the previous comment.)

Anonymous Aeoli Pera September 10, 2012 2:15 PM  

Not quite as well as the one to not invest in housing in 2002. Or the one to buy gold at $300. Or the one that predicted Sarah Palin would be the Republican VP candidate. Or the one that predicted Mitt Romney would be the Republican nominee in 2012. Or that the stock market would begin to bounce back in March 2009. Or that Obama would not end the various wars, but would increase US military involvement in them instead. Or, for that matter, the one that the Lizard Queen would not run for president in 2004.

I predict he will accuse you of cherrypicking.

Anonymous VD September 10, 2012 2:19 PM  

I predict he will accuse you of cherrypicking.

That would be projection.

Anonymous HH September 10, 2012 2:22 PM  

VD said:

"The causality is that Hispanics were specifically targeted by the mortgage banks and they were disproportionately responsible for taking out loans they had no hope of every repaying"

Maybe its clearer to say "they were allowed to get loans that they never should have been allowed to get" ..

Blogger Nate September 10, 2012 2:29 PM  

It appears The Prince was somewhat better in matters of government than he was in the military arts.

Blogger Nate September 10, 2012 2:33 PM  

I'm curious about the 2033 thing myself... I know when I work the math out it all runs dry in 2015.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera September 10, 2012 2:33 PM  

What would amount to a "collapse"?

It ought to be easy to design quantitative measures for this because the qualitative difference is so easy to see.

As far as I know, there exists no disagreement among historians about "whether" previous empires collapsed or not. It is only a question of specifying an exact date, and even then the definitions do not disagree much.

I think the easiest way to define collapse would be the proportional decrease of territory (in square miles) the empire directly controls (in the political sense, not in the Confessions of an Economic Hitman sense). Colonies tend to revolt at the same time because they sense the same weaknesses in the empire.

Therefore, I propose the following definition for your consideration and refinement: "An empire is said to collapse during a period of at least 3 years during which the change in its territorial expansion is negative (for all three years)"

Notice that's change in expansion over time. That is, d^2(T)/dt^2, where T is territory. (I understand that T is discrete and not strictly differentiable.)

Anonymous Fatso McGraw September 10, 2012 2:33 PM  

I think it will take longer, if only because your temporal predictions have tended to be early, at least as regards the stock market collapse and public recognition of the Depression.

Anonymous Yep. September 10, 2012 2:34 PM  

How will we know when it finally collapses? When the Wikipedia article on America says so?

Anonymous FUBAR Nation (Ben) September 10, 2012 2:37 PM  

What do you expect? When you take a look at the countries that these immigrants, or migrants, are coming from, it's obvious that they're going to bring their cultures them.

Everything is about race now, which trumps everything. You have people that will call you a racisss for not agreeing with Obama's policies.
Expect this to continue into the future as the country starts to break apart.

Blogger Nate September 10, 2012 2:38 PM  

"How will we know when it finally collapses? When the Wikipedia article on America says so?"

when the system of government has changed so completely it cannot be considered the same country... like Rome went from a republic to a dictatorship.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera September 10, 2012 2:38 PM  

That would be projection.

You should offer an award for "most fallacies in one sentence". But you'd have to define the list of fallacies, because you never know when someone might, say, appeal to the authority of their MBTI personality type.

Anonymous George September 10, 2012 2:40 PM  

Daniel wrote:

"Collapse?

I'm fond of the map drawn up by Aces and Eights, with a few modern exceptions in the details."

Yea....that's not gonna happen.

Blogger Trust September 10, 2012 2:42 PM  

If the democrats were go read the fascist manifesto they would find that their platform is not new. They are among the first, however, to call fascism right wing... then again, projection is a historical regularity.

Blogger Nate September 10, 2012 2:43 PM  

"Yea....that's not gonna happen."

The USSR called.. it said...you don't pay attention to history.

Anonymous George September 10, 2012 2:44 PM  

Pera wrote:

"Therefore, I propose the following definition for your consideration and refinement: "An empire is said to collapse during a period of at least 3 years during which the change in its territorial expansion is negative (for all three years)"

I guess under this definition we first need to determine the current conditions of U.S. territorial expansion in order first to determine what kind of changes (negative or positive) occur.

Anonymous Feh September 10, 2012 2:44 PM  

when the system of government has changed so completely it cannot be considered the same country... like Rome went from a republic to a dictatorship.

Why then America has already "collapsed" twice - 1865 and 1933...

Anonymous George September 10, 2012 2:46 PM  

Nate said:

"The USSR called.. it said...you don't pay attention to history."

I'm not ready to agree that the experience of the Soviet Union is all that similar to the experience of the U.S.

Anonymous Salt September 10, 2012 2:50 PM  

I give it way less than 21 years till collapse as the political class is quite dependent on the financial one. And given that finance can happen within a virtual zero time frame, one misstep and it could bye bye in the near blink of an eye.

Blogger Nate September 10, 2012 2:51 PM  

" not ready to agree that the experience of the Soviet Union is all that similar to the experience of the U.S."

People in the USSR in 1986 probably didn't think they were about to experience it either. That doesn't matter.

The fact that you don't understand the scope of the economic problem... doesn't mean the economic problem doesn't exist.

This should be a good lesson for you... you'll see something that you don't believe in can have devastating effects on you.

Blogger Nate September 10, 2012 2:52 PM  

"Why then America has already "collapsed" twice - 1865 and 1933..."

1865 was when America entered the Empire Stage. 33 wasn't nearly as big a change.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera September 10, 2012 2:52 PM  

I guess under this definition we first need to determine the current conditions of U.S. territorial expansion in order first to determine what kind of changes (negative or positive) occur.

True, but I don't have the polysci chops to write a good quantitative definition for territory.

For starters, how about "countries in which the U.S. keeps a standing military base".

Anonymous Aeoli Pera September 10, 2012 2:55 PM  

Also, possibly replace "territory" with "population count within controlled territories".

It probably doesn't matter after two derivatives. But who knows?

Anonymous A.Handle September 10, 2012 3:00 PM  

Hmmm sounds like a strategy, even Machiavelli recognized it.

Don't forget the TBTF banks targets the hisPANICS for credit cards too. As well as big banks like JP Morgue handling the food stamp program that hisPANICS and other minorities are also on the take from.


Blogger Joshua_D September 10, 2012 3:01 PM  

I think Joseph Tainter has given the best definition of collapse, that I have heard so far - society moves from complexity to simplicity and a lot of people starve during the process. The government can change to a dictatorship and I wouldn't necessarily say that is collapse, but it's a good sign of the collapse that will come.

Anonymous George September 10, 2012 3:03 PM  

Pero wrote:

"For starters, how about "countries in which the U.S. keeps a standing military base"."

Maybe. But you could also make the case that retreat from a military base is a rational decision in the service of other types of empire building. For example, perhaps a base were used to protect the flow of a natural resource that once originated in that place, but is no longer in any significant supply. No need to protect it. Better to use resources to protect a better flowing source of resources.

Anonymous Josh September 10, 2012 3:03 PM  

I'm curious about the 2033 thing myself... I know when I work the math out it all runs dry in 2015.

120 years from the establishment of the federal reserve, or 100 years from the end of the classical gold standard.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera September 10, 2012 3:12 PM  

George,

I'm not disputing that. But it's hard to attribute three years' accelerating withdrawal to American Exceptionalism.

Anonymous Cheddarman September 10, 2012 3:21 PM  

It would not surprise me if we go from "democracy" to dictatorship and then collapse.

A dictator is not likely to address the underlying problem of debt and government spending, but would try more of the same, in the mold of Mussolini, Hitler, and the USSR.


A dictator would most likely shorten the time frame to collapse.

Sincerely

Cheddarman

Blogger Nate September 10, 2012 3:22 PM  

"120 years from the establishment of the federal reserve, or 100 years from the end of the classical gold standard."

No... this is Vox we're talking about... its a math thing... or an econ model that I haven't seen yet.

Anonymous Josh September 10, 2012 3:39 PM  

No... this is Vox we're talking about... its a math thing... or an econ model that I haven't seen yet.

It is a math thing: fiat currencies don't last for more than either 100 or 120 years. Vox has blogged on that in the past.

Anonymous rycamor September 10, 2012 3:43 PM  

Nate September 10, 2012 2:43 PM

"Yea....that's not gonna happen."

The USSR called.. it said...you don't pay attention to history.


The main thing wrong with that map is that there is no way the rest of the South will accept any part of Florida south of Lake Okeechobee, and possibly not even south of Orlando. What will be funny is to see which group in South Florida wants to take on the responsibility for millions of aging Baby Boomers.

Blogger Nate September 10, 2012 4:00 PM  

"The main thing wrong with that map is that there is no way the rest of the South will accept any part of Florida south of Lake Okeechobee, and possibly not even south of Orlando."

Incorrect.

The yankees will go home.

Blogger Joshua_D September 10, 2012 4:07 PM  

Nate September 10, 2012 4:00 PM

"The main thing wrong with that map is that there is no way the rest of the South will accept any part of Florida south of Lake Okeechobee, and possibly not even south of Orlando."

Incorrect.

The yankees will go home.


We can always dream.

Blogger Lovekraft September 10, 2012 4:14 PM  

If Obama does this while under considerable suspicion of being a muslim, and other politicians/bureaucrats/judges have done similar damage, I think that speaks more about human nature and the nature of our government structure, that any individual.

IOW, Obama and other subsequent swindlers, liars and narcissists may simply be doing what the system allows. And to prevent them from rising too high requires a new system.

Anonymous rycamor September 10, 2012 4:16 PM  

Home might not *want* the Yankees. Especially the aging boomers. Also, where will the Cubans, Jamaicans, and Haitians go?

I mean, sure the South could just conquer South Florida. I'm just not convinced it would be worth it to acquire that particular mixture of humanity. And natural resources ain't so great in South FL, except for Stone Crab season.

Don't get me wrong. I would be all for it.

Anonymous Daniel September 10, 2012 4:25 PM  

The yankees will go home.

I believe they already are in FLA, but I can't find the demographics. I know growth has dropped off to a 60-year low, and is only 100,000 or so from declining population. Completely coincidental and due to other factors but still kind of funny:

To rent a 26' truck to move from Flint to Ft. Lauderdale: $1,520.00
To rent one to move from Ft. Lauderdale to Flint: $1,809.00

Price indicates that the demand to move from Florida to an abandoned yankee hellhole is greater than the demand to move from an abandoned yankee hellhole to Florida. It is similar for Detroit vs. Florida.

Anonymous Josh September 10, 2012 4:31 PM  

To rent a 26' truck to move from Flint to Ft. Lauderdale: $1,520.00To rent one to move from Ft. Lauderdale to Flint: $1,809.00

It could be that there is a surplus of trucks in flint that are not being used, thus increasing the supply...

Anonymous Vidad September 10, 2012 4:51 PM  

"And natural resources ain't so great in South FL, except for Stone Crab season."

The climate is the best in the nation, though. Better than the rest of the state. Perhaps after the zombies kill each other off we can come down and clean up.

My main disagreement with the map posted earlier is the assumption that Texas will survive independently of Mexico. I think it's cooked.

Blogger James Dixon September 10, 2012 4:53 PM  

> We can always dream.

He didn't say voluntarily or in what condition.

Blogger Michael September 10, 2012 4:56 PM  

Vidad: "My main disagreement with the map posted earlier is the assumption that Texas will survive independently of Mexico. I think it's cooked."

That assumes Mexico is still a functioning state. They will be very busy with their own internal problems.

Anonymous JartStar September 10, 2012 5:14 PM  

Nate,

I'd say your 2015 prediction is too soon as Japan, the EU, and possibly China all have to implode first. Then we get around to the US. This is assuming that things play out "in order" and that those collapses don't cause a major war that delays the US financial collapse.

Blogger JohnG September 10, 2012 5:16 PM  

I always preferred this map…!

A friend of mine is offering to sell me some property outside of Tombstone AZ... except I'd much rather move north to someplace closer to my demographic. How long before Kalifornia votes to rejoin Mexico on it's own?

Anonymous Matthew September 10, 2012 5:17 PM  

Texas won't survive with its current boundaries, but I strongly doubt that the white communities will be overrun, or driven out. San Antonio's toast, let alone El Paso, but the fate of Austin will be interesting in the Chinese sense.

Anonymous VD September 10, 2012 5:41 PM  

No... this is Vox we're talking about... its a math thing... or an econ model that I haven't seen yet.

Ah, how well you know me. The Dread Ilk know to not so much expect the unexpected as the seemingly lunatic. Anyhow, I consider Bretton Woods to be the creation of a new currency. Currencies usually have maximum lifespans of 70 years. But more importantly, it took 42 years for the European Coal and Steel Community to transform into the European Union. NAFTA was signed in 1992.

So, I assumed 2030 to 2040. Since the Powers that pursue global governance like symbolic numbers, 2033 seems to be the most likely one in that range.

Anonymous JartStar September 10, 2012 5:52 PM  

2033

I don’t know how often there is a multinational, major ground war in Western Europe, but that’s getting awfully close to 100 years if calculating from WWII.

Which comes first a another US civil war or another major European war?

Anonymous paradox September 10, 2012 5:59 PM  

JohnG September 10, 2012 5:16 PM

I always preferred this map…!


One obvious problem with that map... The Russian Professor has no idea of the Northern States cultural differences verses those in Western NC, SC, Tennessee, Kentucky, and parts of VA. There is no way in hell those areas would join with those Northern States, let alone merge with the European Union. Even in by 2033 the demographics wouldn't change be enough for that to happen.

Anonymous Outlaw X September 10, 2012 6:01 PM  

"Fathom the hypocrisy of a government that requires every citizen to prove they are insured... but not everyone must prove they are a citizen." Now add this, "Many of those who refuse or are unable to prove they are citizens will receive free insurance, paid for by those who are forced to buy insurance because they are citizens."

~Ben Stein

Anonymous Azimus September 10, 2012 6:54 PM  

There won't be another US civil war. Can't happen. Oh there would be plenty of Federal troops but who would comprise the opposition? Most of the people who would profess hatred for the Federal government have a strategy that reads something like "run to the hills and live off my pallet of dehydrated beans. Oh yeah and f*ck everybody else except Ron Paul."

How does a civil war develop in this way?

I would say a Putin vs NATO is a much more likely scenario, what with all the sabre rattling and proxy wars.

Blogger Michael September 10, 2012 7:19 PM  

There won't be another US civil war. Can't happen. Oh there would be plenty of Federal troops but who would comprise the opposition?
The next U.S. civil war will happen when there is no longer a fully functional fedgov to "preserve the union". Then the regional/ethnic tensions will be fought out among patches of the former states and within some states.

Anonymous scoobius dubious September 10, 2012 7:20 PM  

The Russian breakup map is ludicrous. It looks like it was done in 15 minutes by a clever ten-year-old. Has this guy ever spent any time studying America as it really exists?

"under Canadian influence"?!? WTF?

Plus, why would the SW or Texas want to revert to Mexico, even after it's gone all-brown? The Hispanics all left Mexico because they were tired of being surrounded by other poor, stupid Mexicans -- they want to live with nice rich white people who will stupidly pay for their endless ninos. The instant the "SW Texas Republic" re-joins Mexico is the instant all its proud citizens jump the fence to go live in Pennsylvania. The whites are stupid, they already fell for this shit once.

A separation along racial lines (which is the only thing that would make a lick of sense) will only happen if whites are the ones to initiate it, quarantining themselves from the orcs for their own survival. We will see whether whites ever re-grow their brains and their balls to the extent they realize the need, and the truth, of this. Blacks and browns and Jews are never gonna let whitey go if they can help it: too sweet a deal for them, their meat-hooks are in deep.

Anonymous Stilicho September 10, 2012 7:29 PM  

Anyhow, I consider Bretton Woods to be the creation of a new currency. Currencies usually have maximum lifespans of 70 years. But more importantly, it took 42 years for the European Coal and Steel Community to transform into the European Union. NAFTA was signed in 1992.

Well, that gives us a range of 2016 to 2034. If I had to guess, I would expect the political and economic crises to combine to give us an outright collapse around the election year of 2020. The Japanese had enormous capital to deplete which allowed them more time. We have little in comparison.

Nate, what gives you your 2015 date?

Anonymous Outlaw X September 10, 2012 7:35 PM  

Vox, I have a serious question.

Since you live out of the US and are still there as a citizen will you have to buy health insurance? And also under US law what exactly does citizenship imply? What are pluses and minus's? Anyone can answer that who knows anything about this.

Blogger Unknown September 10, 2012 8:29 PM  

>>As I have repeatedly said, I expect it to take place within 21 years, by 2033.

I should still be alive then, and for a decade or so beyond. It will be a hell of a lot of fun to behold.

Blogger Unknown September 10, 2012 8:30 PM  

>>As I have repeatedly said, I expect it to take place within 21 years, by 2033.

I should still be alive then, and for a decade or so beyond. It will be a hell of a lot of fun to behold.

Anonymous Vic September 10, 2012 8:44 PM  

JohnG,

As a resident of North Carolina, I can't see us joining the northeast Utopia voluntarily.

On the other hand, we are being overrun from the north as well as the south. We have picked up seats every census as of late, and I ain't seen that many younguns.

To tell you the truth, I, and most of my fellows, prefer the Mexicans to the libtards. At least the Mexicans keep their idiocy to themselves. The libtards shoehorn it into the local government as they move in.

Anonymous Outlaw X September 10, 2012 9:06 PM  

I would be surprised if 2% of the readers can answer my former question. Even intelligent people can't think any more

Anonymous Azimus September 10, 2012 9:28 PM  

Wait wasn't this a computer game in the early 90's?

Or was it a bad Kevin Costner film?

Either way, IMO it is fiction.

If I had to make a prediction on the US it would be the strong man being granted extraordinary power route, who then will lead us bravely into the NA union by some other name to secure our future.

Anonymous scoobius dubious September 10, 2012 9:40 PM  

"At least the Mexicans keep their idiocy to themselves."

That's simply because there aren't enough of them yet. Right now you're still only up to your knees in Mexicans; wait til you're up to your ears.

Don't worry, it'll happen, they're coming. They haven't forgotten about you.

Anonymous JI September 10, 2012 9:41 PM  

Nailed it, Vox. The descendants of the Aztecs are a very foreign tribe when compared with the children of the Englishmen who created this country. Perhaps even more foreign than were the city tribes.

Anonymous The other skeptic September 10, 2012 10:18 PM  

If I had to make a prediction on the US it would be the strong man being granted extraordinary power route, who then will lead us bravely into the NA union by some other name to secure our future.

Ahhh, yes, the North American Union. Much ink has been spilled over that. Perhaps some blood will be as well.

Blogger Nate September 10, 2012 10:29 PM  

Vox... you're such a polly anna optimist.

I can't for the life of me figure out what makes you think it can last until 2030.

Anonymous The other skeptic September 10, 2012 11:39 PM  

Heh, even though most TV programs are heavily any gun, Americans still seem to buy guns.

Anonymous The other skeptic September 10, 2012 11:45 PM  

Heh, now TV programs are claiming private citizens are sending lots of guns south of the border. What a crock. We all know Obama's Justice Department was doing it and trying to claim that gun companies were doing it.

Anonymous Outlaw X September 10, 2012 11:52 PM  


"All civilizations die by suicidal Statecraft"

Can't remember who said it.

Anonymous Outlaw X September 11, 2012 12:06 AM  

We don't know what we do. All men are touched by the Luciferian flame. It is truth from all times. Out of control immigration is only a symptom of the disease. Mammon...

Matt 6:24

Anonymous Aeoli Pera September 11, 2012 1:08 AM  

I can't for the life of me figure out what makes you think it can last until 2030.

A possible explanation*: human behavior isn't static, as you know. Once the veneer comes off people will act more conservatively, which will probably stretch the timeline of the empire's demise.

*Of the prediction, not necessarily Vox's line of reasoning.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera September 11, 2012 1:12 AM  

Outlaw X,

Your question only requires research, not thinking. I'm a neophyte of one and not the other (maybe someday, though).

/pedantry

Anonymous Outlaw X September 11, 2012 1:32 AM  

Your question only requires research, not thinking. I'm a neophyte of one and not the other (maybe someday, though).

It is not pedantic it is true and is why I asked. Nobody knows.

Anonymous Salt September 11, 2012 8:40 AM  

Once the veneer comes off people will act more conservatively, which will probably stretch the timeline of the empire's demise.

This would translate into lower consumer consumption, lower debt creation, and higher savings. Adding fuel to the economic slowdown is precisely opposite what helps keep the Empire afloat.

Anonymous Roundtine September 11, 2012 11:40 AM  

China was basically at subsistence in 1978 and chose to abandon communism. Soviets collapsed in 1989, Europe started collapsing in 2010. Depending on how the economy performs, California could be the canary in the coal mine by next year.

Anonymous Orion September 11, 2012 11:49 AM  

""How will we know when it finally collapses? When the Wikipedia article on America says so?"

when the system of government has changed so completely it cannot be considered the same country... like Rome went from a republic to a dictatorship."

So are we talking the dictatorship following the Sulla - Marius civil war or the one that followed Caesar - Pompey? A quibble, but still important to note. Sulla was only dictator for a few years and then there was a "return" to the Republic, but the roots of the conflict still thrived and fed the next one. Augustus lived and ruled where Caesar died quickly because he maintained the trappings of the Republic for awhile longer. Of course, it could be argued that the outward facade of a Republic has been maintained since the 1860s....

Anonymous robh September 11, 2012 11:54 AM  

I truly look forward to finding out what the lefties' rationalization hamsters come up with in order to justify the jackboots when they hit the streets to "preserve order".

Anonymous Stilicho September 11, 2012 12:01 PM  

I truly look forward to finding out what the lefties' rationalization hamsters come up with in order to justify the jackboots when they hit the streets to "preserve order".

Why are you against law and order? If you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to worry about. You must be raciss! Terrorist! Fringe groups (like the GOP) present a grave danger to the public and must be controlled...

Anonymous Aeoli Pera September 11, 2012 1:06 PM  

This would translate into lower consumer consumption, lower debt creation, and higher savings. Adding fuel to the economic slowdown is precisely opposite what helps keep the Empire afloat.

America is not currently a superpower because of our high consumption. We consume because we are a superpower.

Myopic human nature dictates that our spending habits will lag behind our prosperity during the current decline, but by necessity we will begin spending less.

(This is because we don't realistically envision the future when we spend. We extrapolate from the past, and we can't remember any recessions when the economy didn't bounce back.)

This depression is qualitatively different in the sense that we expect it will coincide with the loss of our conventional military power as well. That power has a lot to do with our favorable economic condition.

Anonymous scoobius dubious September 11, 2012 1:07 PM  

"when the system of government has changed so completely it cannot be considered the same country"

That's already happened. It happened during the first term of George W. "Gee, now that I'm here, the Ninth Circle looks a lot different than in the engravings" Bush, when he announced that the American people could be replaced by any non-American willing to live in America more cheaply and that, as president, he would violate his oath of office and not enforce the immigration laws he was sworn to uphold, so that non-Americans could flood into the country and replace the actual American people. The actual President of the United States publicly stated that so far as he was concerned, the American people effectively were fungible and did not exist with respect to their own laws. No one stopped him, no one impeached him, indeed, nobody said boo.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera September 11, 2012 1:12 PM  

It may help to remember when our consumption culture began: the post-war '20s and the post-war '50s.

Demand-based economics can be conceived as the rationalization hamster's response to those periods of post-war prosperity. Human behavior is dynamic, but human nature is static. Hence the countless oscillation effects we observe.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera September 11, 2012 1:19 PM  

Why are you against law and order? If you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to worry about. You must be raciss! Terrorist! Fringe groups (like the GOP) present a grave danger to the public and must be controlled...

Lefties don't assign high value to law and order. They'll appeal to the ideas they value: conformity, social engineering, redistribution, scientific socialism, etc. You're right that we'll be seeing a lot of synonyms for "fringe".

But it's probably the righties who will do us in, in which case we can expect jingoism and literal jackboots.

Blogger James Dixon September 11, 2012 3:25 PM  

> Of course, it could be argued that the outward facade of a Republic has been maintained since the 1860s....

Probably successfully.

Blogger jyoti soni April 05, 2014 2:24 AM  

Great post . It takes me almost half an hour to read the whole post. Definitely this one of the informative and useful post to me. Thanks for the share.Best Home Mortgage Lenders Fort LauderdaleFederated Mortgage Services can match you with the best Florida mortgage financing programs from hundreds of lenders.






Post a Comment

NO ANONYMOUS COMMENTS. Anonymous comments will be deleted.

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts