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Saturday, September 22, 2012

Trends and the media polls

Gallup Election Polls

09/5-11/2012
Obama 50%
Romney 43%

09/14-20/2012
Obama 47%
Romney 47%

I'm still trying to figure out how folks like Karl Denninger are interpreting a 7-point swing towards Romney as proof that Obama has the election all but sewn up. Especially when Rasmussen shows a similar 46%-46% result. I understand the Electoral College and why some prefer the state-by-state analyses. But the fact remains that Rasmussen nailed the 2008 popular vote while Nate Silver asserted "Obama’s Convention Bounce May Not Be Receding" on the very day that Gallup reported this seven-point move away from him. Either way, it is useful to recall that in polls as in stocks, past performance does not guarantee future results.

Labels:

72 Comments:

Blogger IM2L844 September 22, 2012 11:12 AM  

I'm still trying to figure out how folks like Karl Denninger are interpreting a 7-point swing towards Romney as proof that Obama has the election all but sewn up.

Isn't it clear that the Grand Wurlitzer has deployed the same old "X can't win" psychological group think strategy they used so effectively Paul?

Blogger IM2L844 September 22, 2012 11:16 AM  

...they used so effectively against Paul.

Is there no way to bring back the edit function?

Anonymous zeonxavier September 22, 2012 11:21 AM  

You must admit, the lack of an edit function keeps mere fallible humans somewhat humble.

Oh, to be an infallible icon of punditry.

Anonymous zen0 September 22, 2012 11:42 AM  

Preview has an edit funkshun.

Anonymous No_Limit_ Bubba™ September 22, 2012 11:54 AM  

Somehow, proofreading in "Preview" is never as successful as proofreading after posting......

Anonymous Theological discourse September 22, 2012 12:03 PM  

Hey VD, didn't you claim a while back that Obama wasn't going to win the re election?

Anonymous Anonymous September 22, 2012 12:04 PM  

Romney-hater, OWS fan and Obama voter predicts "big fat loss for Romney"...Internet superintellegence baffled...

Anonymous O.C. September 22, 2012 12:10 PM  

> I'm still trying to figure out how folks like Karl Denninger are interpreting a 7-point swing towards Romney as proof that Obama has the election all but sewn up.

Because polls only collect the opinions of the living. Every day the subterranean rumble is louder: all my long-dead relatives in Illinois can't *wait* to rise from their graves and vote for Obama.

Anonymous VD September 22, 2012 12:10 PM  

Hey VD, didn't you claim a while back that Obama wasn't going to win the re election?

Yep. Actually, I thought he would drop out and refuse to run. I still don't see him winning.

Anonymous Rantor September 22, 2012 12:31 PM  

I only pay attention to the Rasmussen Polls, I discount all others unless I take time to read the details. Rasmussen's daily polling with three day smoothing has shown to be a very accurate effort and both Romney and then Obama got their convention bounces, it just appeared a few days late in Rasmussen.

If the current rally dies off this month and we get a good stock market plunge, that will help Romney a lot. Also, if the press would pay attention to the failed Obama foreign policy, anti-US demonstrations in over 25 nations last week! This is massive failure. No one wants to blame Obama, so they are blaiming a stupid You Tube clip...

Might as well blaim every illustrated edition of Dante's Inferno.

I can't say I want Romney to win, but I will admit that I want Obama to lose. The rumor that some rich woman is trying to buy Obama a $35M retirement home in Hawaii, by January, was only too sweet.

Blogger Nate September 22, 2012 12:42 PM  

Look... the race is already decided. Look at the money. Romney has a ton of it... and Obama... amazingly... is having a hard time.

The banks have decided its Romney. The candidate with the most money always... always... wins.

Anonymous Rollory September 22, 2012 12:53 PM  

A 7-point swing in the polls on a national level means a swing in opinion towards Romney in states where Romney was already ahead and also towards Romney in states where Obama was and remains clearly ahead. Unless there is a national swing big enough to take something like Michigan or Pennsylvania and move it with the general tide, the national polls don't mean very much. If the 7-point swing is translating equally to all states, meaning a 7-point swing in each state, then yes it is significant. If however it's an average of for example a 12-point swing in some states and 3-point in others ... then the national poll results don't matter at all and the state-by-state results matter a lot. I haven't seen any evidence one way or the other on that (but I haven't been looking, either).

OD notes a study claiming that Romney has a commanding lead among whites in Dixie but nowhere else:

http://www.occidentaldissent.com/2012/09/22/new-ppri-study-on-white-working-class/

in which case a dramatically improved Romney advantage in the South and Midwest but not elsewhere might well produce the nationally averaged results seen, and still not produce a Romney electoral college victory.

Americans aren't uniform.

Anonymous johnc September 22, 2012 12:55 PM  

>Because polls only collect the opinions of the living. Every day the subterranean rumble is louder: all my long-dead relatives in Illinois can't *wait* to rise from their graves and vote for Obama.<

Bingo. Romney needs at least a 5-10% advantage to make up for the massive voter fraud that occurs on a regular basis in these elections.

But anyway... of the seven super states, Obama has four locked up and Romney has one. That leaves Ohio and Florida and neither will be easy for Romney to capture. Obama has relatively good approval ratings (48%-ish). Throw in the fact that even where people know Obama is a turd (e.g., foreign policy), there is the belief that Romney would only be worse.

With Republicans now worshiping at the altars of war and free trade, they have just written off way too much of the electorate. So even here -- an election that should be a slam-dunk -- they're struggling.

There are people out there that had good-paying factory jobs that now work at Burger King and are on food stamps, and these are precisely the people that Republicans are criticizing. Why?

Anonymous Godfrey September 22, 2012 1:06 PM  

I predict an Obama victory. The Mormon version of Bush is more like Bush than the black version of Bush. Consequently in the final analysis, of those few who vote, more will vote for Obama. I’d estimate that a Romney regime has a 75% chance (or better) of leading us into a major world war. Obama I’d put at 66.667%.

Blogger IM2L844 September 22, 2012 1:10 PM  

Yep. Actually, I thought he would drop out and refuse to run. I still don't see him winning.

Never before in the history of mankind has such an undeserving person experienced such a phenomenal life-long string of contiguous good luck and perennial miraculous coincidences. It's almost as if there is an unseen hand at work and you're betting against him?

Anonymous Godfrey September 22, 2012 1:13 PM  

I think discussing free trade is irrelevant until the Fed is gone and the USD is no longer the reserve currency of the world. I would say the same thing about war and the world wide empire.

Anonymous johnc September 22, 2012 1:16 PM  

We also have to consider the most likely combinations, which are two:

1) Obama + Republican House
2) Romney + Republican House

Since we have prior experience to rely on, we can pretty accurately predict how these two options will play out. The first is basically a continuation of the past 2-3 years.

The second we can reliably predict as:

- massive increase in federal spending
- massive decrease in tax revenues
- military involvement in Libya, Syria, Egypt and most likely Iran, with a consequent long-term increase in gas prices

Which of the two is more likely to break the country quicker?

Blogger JD Curtis September 22, 2012 1:17 PM  

Via Jim Treacher..

'WIth 0% of precincts reporting, the MSM has declared Barack Obama the winner of the 2012 United States presidential election..'

Anonymous rienzi September 22, 2012 1:21 PM  

Johnc said: There are people out there that had good-paying factory jobs that now work at Burger King and are on food stamps, and these are precisely the people that Republicans are criticizing. Why?

There's a reason we call them the "stupid party". Except their policies of "No Billionaire Left Behind", "All Glory to the Banksters", and "Endless War for Empire", the Rockefeller types that have controlled the party forever really don't stand for much of anything

Blogger JD Curtis September 22, 2012 1:21 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger JD Curtis September 22, 2012 1:22 PM  

CS Monitor: Say, this admission on Benghazi terrorist attack might cause Obama a few problems

Anonymous simplemath September 22, 2012 1:23 PM  

Americans want more free sh1t.

Romney will give them slightly less

Obama wins.

Anonymous Anonymous September 22, 2012 1:31 PM  

More Romney-haters predict Romney loss...incredible objectivity...like they got crystal balls or somethin...

Anonymous JMH September 22, 2012 2:26 PM  

I'm still trying to figure out how folks like Karl Denninger are interpreting a 7-point swing towards Romney as proof that Obama has the election all but sewn up.

I'm going to go with the Bagdad Bob reason, namely that it's far more dangerous to be a disloyal party member than to spout complete nonsense.

Never before in the history of mankind has such an undeserving person experienced such a phenomenal life-long string of contiguous good luck and perennial miraculous coincidences. It's almost as if there is an unseen hand at work and you're betting against him?

Yeah, but I keep thinking of the old joke about the dog chasing a car. What's he going to do if he ever catches it? I think the "unseen hand" behind Obumbler caught the car and suddenly found themselves in way, way over their heads.

I know, folks like to talk about Cloward-Piven strategy of intentional ruin and how all this is part of some master plan. It may be, but you have to consider the possibility that Cloward and Piven were morons. They may have come up with a strategy that doesn't actually work.

Anonymous Cryan Ryan September 22, 2012 2:36 PM  

I read Denninger regularly, mostly because he is the most indignant, self righteous person on the planet, and is very amusing.

He voted for Obama and has been in a frothing rage ever since.

Guys like Karl have triple bypasses and then spend the rest of their lives lecturing everyone within earshot about proper nutrition and exercise.

Anonymous Cheddarman September 22, 2012 2:57 PM  

Color me skeptical of a Romney victory at this moment. There are 3 aircraft carriers and 2 Amphibious assault carriers (they have about 3000 marines, helicopters and Harrier jets) in the Persian Gulf area, plus numerous other warships from U.S. allies.

We have not had this much U.S. naval activity in the Persian Gulf since the invasion of Iraq.

With things heating up there lately, with the embassy attacks and anti American protests and Israel and Iran talkin' trash with each other, it would be all to convenient for an "incident" like the staged Gulf of Tonkin incident to get the Obama re-elected...

my guess is he know it is in the works, and is enjoying sitting on his arse waiting...knows he doesn't really have to campaign to get re-elected...nothing the boobs and rubes in the U.S. enjoy more than "America's finest" squashing a 3rd world country

Sincerely

Cheddarman

Anonymous Cheddarman September 22, 2012 3:03 PM  

"Might as well blaim every illustrated edition of Dante's Inferno."
-Rantor

This is off topic, but there is a Dante's Pizza joint in my town, and, being a man of the classics as well as one who appreciates great pizza, I like to ask Dante the pizza shop owner for an "Inferno special"

Blogger Nate September 22, 2012 3:21 PM  

"More Romney-haters predict Romney loss...incredible objectivity...like they got crystal balls or somethin..."

Actually... if you're referring to the Ilk...mostly you see Romney Haters predicting a Romney win.

Newsflash... the hard working candidate with more money is going to beat the lazy dope smoking golfer with less money.

It doesn't take a genius to figure this out.

Anonymous paradox September 22, 2012 3:23 PM  

OT: Not seen any comments from Wheeler in awhile. I wonder if this is the reason? If this is the same Wheeler, he's no longer Catholic but Orthodox. Oh.... the irony.

Blogger Nate September 22, 2012 3:35 PM  

Paradox... yes... that is Wheeler... and may God have mercy on anyone that takes the time to read that rubbish.

Anonymous Gen. Kong September 22, 2012 3:53 PM  

O.C. nails it:
Because polls only collect the opinions of the living. Every day the subterranean rumble is louder: all my long-dead relatives in Illinois can't *wait* to rise from their graves and vote for Obama.

Indeed. The legions of spectral electors quietly await their final instructions to ooze out from the vast necropoles of Illinois and cast their uncountable numbers of votes. Nice to see someone here understands that democracy is not limited to the living. The dead are considerably more numerous - and they only vote one way.

Anonymous LES September 22, 2012 3:53 PM  

I don't want Obama to win but the schadenfreude would be delicious if Romney lost.

Anonymous Gen. Kong September 22, 2012 4:18 PM  

johnc:
We also have to consider the most likely combinations, which are two:

1) Obama + Republican House
2) Romney + Republican House

Since we have prior experience to rely on, we can pretty accurately predict how these two options will play out. The first is basically a continuation of the past 2-3 years.

The second we can reliably predict as:

- massive increase in federal spending
- massive decrease in tax revenues
- military involvement in Libya, Syria, Egypt and most likely Iran, with a consequent long-term increase in gas prices

Which of the two is more likely to break the country quicker?


johnc is the first I've seen to make the case that Mittens is actually the faster path to the inevitable implosion. Worse is better is really the only viable strategy for our side at this point. It's not as if Weepin' Johnny and the Brokeback Boyz in the Repuke-controlled House have been doing anything apart from assuming the position for the pleasure of D'Won on d'downlow anyway. Therefore the notion that having Hussein as Housenigga will cause Repukes to grow a pair is demonstratively false (Just last week they voted to continue funding Obamacare's implementation - despite all those Tea-Party promises of two years ago). Simultaneous wars in the Umma to make it safe for feminism, sodomy and "democracy" are therefore likely the fastest way to bring about the regime's collapse.

Blogger Fred September 22, 2012 4:24 PM  

KD stated that as Florida goes, so goes the election, given that most of the swing states are at the margin, Obamas.

Anonymous Stilicho September 22, 2012 6:12 PM  

I like to ask Dante the pizza shop owner for an "Inferno special"

The Ninth Circle slice burns a bit

Anonymous DrTorch September 22, 2012 6:34 PM  

I'm not sure Romney wants to win. He's running a pretty inept campaign for someone who wants to be president.

Anonymous FP September 22, 2012 6:53 PM  

Bah that KD thread was amusing just because of the silly debate that ensued about Iowa wind power generation.

Anonymous It all hinges on the turnout of spectral electors September 22, 2012 6:56 PM  

Will Romney take a dive 1 week out like McCain did? My left bunion says "yes". My magic 8 ball says "maybe". My neighbors dog says "woof".

Anonymous Jack Amok September 22, 2012 7:34 PM  

Cheddarman, what exactly makes you think a war will make people more likely to re-elect the Obumblr-n-chief? His biggest problems with swing voters is that he's seen as fundamentally incompetent and at least partly anti-American. The only real chance he has of winning (other than a large turnout from the Deceased-American community), is to convince people Romney has some sort of plutocratic loot-the-poor agenda. But if there's a shooting war going on, that'll be less important than having someone perceived as competent and patriotic. Romney wins on those two fronts. I imagine half the Obama voters would even concede that (though they'd probalby say patriotism was a vice and not a virtue).


War is bad for Mother Earth, little babies, and Barack Obama's relection bid.

Anonymous The Stranger September 22, 2012 7:52 PM  

Rather America breaks sooner than later. Drawing it out means more and worse injuries.

OTOH, a very dramatic fail will prob'ly produce a correspondingly dramatic restructure. On the *other* other hand, there's no certainty which way the new structure will lean.

Fun times.

Anonymous zen0 September 22, 2012 7:54 PM  

War is bad for Mother Earth, little babies, and Barack Obama's relection bid.

That is why the Powers that command the forces amassing in the Persian Gulf will not induce Iran to try to close the Straits of Hormuz until after the election.

Remember one cycle ago where some Jihadi city in Iraq was surrounded for months, but they did not start cleaning it up until right after the election. I mean, like, the next day.

The Muzzies know this and incorporate it into their strategies.

If you had a Parliamentary democracy where the election dates were not fixed, they would have less time to prepare.

Anonymous zen0 September 22, 2012 8:30 PM  

OTOH, a very dramatic fail will prob'ly produce a correspondingly dramatic restructure. On the *other* other hand, there's no certainty which way the new structure will lean.

Though one cannot guess what face chaos will present to the hapless middle class, the probability in the interim is that Wall Street will have a 2 year spree, no matter who is elected.

One last battle to loot the country before a possible international banking regulation regime begins that will inhibit their actions.

Anonymous Grinder September 22, 2012 9:19 PM  

I think Obama will win. Romney is a bigger, clueless douchebag who is unable to con people like Obama (plus his celebrity endorcers) are able to. Neither is good for the nation.

Anonymous Can't Decide Whether to be Fendall Hawkins, Norman Jones, or Lt. Rozanov September 22, 2012 9:32 PM  

Being the perpetual and brutal contrarian that I am, I always like to bet for the underdog. That silent player in the mix. He/it may not win, but it sure is fun to speculate and/or extrapolate in kind...

The Origins of the American Military Coup of 2012

Now, we can consider the notion of predictive programming and all that, but one has to ask themselves, what is a military officer, winning a writing contest at the War College, in 1991-92, post the Gulf War, thinking, predicting an outcome in the year 2012?

To add insult to injury, if one is using Chrome (Google), why does it warn you, that downloading such, is harmful to your computer, and advises against doing such? I mean, hey, it's just a .pdf file. A total of a mere 25 pages. Pages 13 - 24 containing only a mere 96 footnotes (sources) to the palsy 12 pages of text (content).

Why go through all the trouble, to vilify something, as a matter of official corporate policy, [that policy organ being related to the CIA] if said content can't be possibly true?

Forget Soetoro and Mittens. Those guys are utterly boring. No fun to be had there whatsoever...

Anonymous zen0 September 22, 2012 9:58 PM  


Now, we can consider the notion of predictive programming and all that, but one has to ask themselves, what is a military officer, winning a writing contest at the War College, in 1991-92, post the Gulf War, thinking, predicting an outcome in the year 2012?


-Can't Decide Whether to be Fendall Hawkins, Norman Jones, or Lt. Rozanov



He is not. It is an exposition of how to avoid such a coup from the perspective of 1992.

Either your reading comprehension is suspect, you are disingenously selling the product. If the latter is the case, one must regard your motives with suspicion.

Anonymous The other skeptic September 22, 2012 10:03 PM  

I can't decide whether 30-06 is as big a step up from 308 as 308 is from 7.62x39. Used both 308 and 7.62x39 at the range today, and maybe the 30-06 is caliber of my next rifle.

Oh, you were talking about the two indistinguishable candidates for President.

Anonymous Just Mark September 22, 2012 10:04 PM  

Dick Morris states that undecidedes historically swing for the challenger at a rath of about 85% so It's more like 52.5 to 47.5 Romney nationally IF DM is correct for this case.

We'll see.

Anonymous Cheddarman September 22, 2012 10:04 PM  

"Cheddarman, what exactly makes you think a war will make people more likely to re-elect the Obumblr-n-chief? Jack Amok

Jack Amok,

If there is a shooting war that involves the U.S., the American people instinctively rally around the incumbent if he starts shooting back. Two historical precedents that come to mind are the Shelling of Fort Sumpter that "started" the U.S. Civil War, and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Both actions helped the incumbents, Lincoln and Roosevelt. Both events were preceded by provocative actions by the U.S. We have done a lot to provoke the Iranians.

It would not be too hard for us to stage an "event" where an American ship was attacked in the Persian Gulf by Iran. Israel would certainly not blow the whistle on us. Bush used mythical weapons of mass destruction in Iraq to get us to go to war.

After the "attack" Obama would order U.S. carrier aircraft/cruise missiles/land based aircraft to bomb military targets in Iran, and he cruises to victory, maybe gets the House of Representatives as well.

Just a thought, not an out right prediction.

Sincerely

Cheddarman

Anonymous The other skeptic September 22, 2012 10:07 PM  


After the "attack" Obama would order U.S. carrier aircraft/cruise missiles/land based aircraft to bomb military targets in Iran, and he cruises to victory, maybe gets the House of Representatives as well.


As a bonus we get to see how good that new Iranian air-defense system is.

Anonymous Muriel Everett September 22, 2012 10:10 PM  

Say it ain't so! (So, they are definitely thinking about it.)

"This is a deadly serious business. I hope I’m wrong, but something smells rotten. And If the Congress isn’t going to do its duty and investigate this matter fully, the military will have to protect the Constitution, the nation, and our citizens."

So, just HOW do they intend to do this? There has to be some kind of plan and/or blueprint somewhere...

Anonymous zen0 September 22, 2012 10:16 PM  

It would not be too hard for us to stage an "event" where an American ship was attacked in the Persian Gulf by Iran.

It does not have to be there. Debka claims a U.S. group wargamed a scenario where a hotel in South America is attacked and Iran is blamed. The U.S. then attacks Revolutionary guard installations by air, inducing Iran to try and block the Straits, which, of course, requires them to be severely chastised, with extreme batshit-crazy prejudice.

Anonymous Jack Amok September 22, 2012 10:38 PM  

Two historical precedents that come to mind are the Shelling of Fort Sumpter that "started" the U.S. Civil War, and the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor. Both actions helped the incumbents

Both events happened early in the presidential term, and there's zero evidence they helped either incumbent. Later in the war, Lincoln was facing a loss to Copperhead Mac, but Shermann saved his bacon by taking Atlanta. FDR won re-election in 1944, five months after D-Day while we were still in the middle of fighting, with 53% of the vote, hardly a landslide. Besides, he'd appointed Republicans as both Secretary of War(Henry Stimson) and Secretary of the Navy (Frank Knox), by way of having a bi-partisan war effort. Obama is hardly likely to appoint any Republicans to an important position.

There's no "rallying around" effect. Nobody rallied 'round Jimminy Carter. People despised him for bungling the Hostage situation in Iran. Obama will face the same reaction if shooting starts, or rather I should say, if the shooting gets bad enough that the MSM (or the "bylined Democrats" as Instapundit likes to call them) has to report on it.

Blogger Desert Cat September 22, 2012 10:59 PM  

Cryan Ryan September 22, 2012 2:36 PM
I read Denninger regularly, mostly because he is the most indignant, self righteous person on the planet, and is very amusing.


Aye, that he is!

Every time I click on over to Market Ticker, I say to myself, "Let's see what Karl is shrieking about today."

Anonymous September 22, 2012 12:04 PM
Romney-hater, OWS fan and Obama voter predicts "big fat loss for Romney"...Internet superintellegence baffled...


Isn't Karl the one who coined the term FSA ("free shit army")? It's not like he is a Democrat sympathizer.

Blogger Desert Cat September 22, 2012 11:04 PM  


Paradox... yes... that is Wheeler... and may God have mercy on anyone that takes the time to read that rubbish.


That is...startling. Totally not my mental picture of Wheeler. I had, horn-rimmed glasses, puffy face, perma-scowl and a cheap tweed suit.

Anonymous zen0 September 22, 2012 11:18 PM  

That is...startling. Totally not my mental picture of Wheeler. I had, horn-rimmed glasses, puffy face, perma-scowl and a cheap tweed suit.

Nah, Wheeler is a warrior, not an academic. He is a man of principle, not a politician.

Disagree with his views as one wants, but he is no crazier than Nate.

Nate has a more cuddly persona, however.

Blogger IM2L844 September 23, 2012 12:14 AM  

It's a near certainty that things are going to get worse regardless of who is elected. So, if Romney wins and we see things go from bad to worse during his term, would Obama run again in 2016 using the "I tried to tell you" gambit?

Anonymous johnc September 23, 2012 1:22 AM  

Miami (CNN) - During a visit to Little Havana with former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, GOP vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan criticized President Barack Obama for engaging in a "policy of appeasement" with Cuba and vowed that a Romney-Ryan administration would be tough on the Castro regime.

"We will not keep practicing this policy of appeasement; we will be tough on this brutal dictator. All it has done is it rewarded more despotism," Ryan said Saturday.


Can somebody tell me exactly how the Republicans became so absolutely batsh!t insane?

So the Party of Free Trade wants to continue an embargo on a country that poses no threat to anybody, meanwhile they eagerly throw America's legs wide open and beg China for a plunder.

Why do I feel like Romney-Ryan will be the equivalent of a Bush administration on steroids?

Anonymous Jack Amok September 23, 2012 1:38 AM  

Why do I feel like Romney-Ryan will be the equivalent of a Bush administration on steroids?

Because you have no imagination? I sincerely doubt Romney-Ryan will be anything like Dubya's administration, for the simple reason that the country is completely different. They may be better, they may be worse, they may just be different, but it won't be the same. The old game is bustimacated, can't play it any more. We've all got to find a new game to play, even the politicians.

Anonymous Gen. Kong September 23, 2012 2:46 AM  

DrTorch: I'm not sure Romney wants to win. He's running a pretty inept campaign for someone who wants to be president.

Yes, I've been noticing that also. Perhaps this mostess important erection evaaahhh will be decided by which of the two wants to lose more. As VD and others have mentioned, Hussein ain't so enthusiastic either. Mittens is doing everything he can to lose. 2012 - the un-campaign for the votes of the undead.

Anonymous E. PERLINE September 23, 2012 7:44 AM  

Obama is a Muslim sympathizer, yet he has to give the impression he opposes Muslims. He's a socialist, yet he has to support capitalism. He's an agent of our enemies, yet he has to pretend he's protecting our security.

You Obama critics have forced him to take on these difficult roles. Have you no sense of shame?

Anonymous Stilicho September 23, 2012 7:45 AM  

Nah, Wheeler is a warrior, not an academic. He is a man of principle, not a politician.

Disagree with his views as one wants, but he is no crazier than Nate.

Nate has a more cuddly persona, however.


Wheeler likely wins the beard wars. Certainly in the patriarchal face fur category. This does beg the question, though: which came first, Orthodox conversion or Orthodox beard?

It will be entertaining to hear about the road away from Rome. Was it a Jungian thing as Greek roots asserted themselves? What happens when you can no longer kneel to the Throne of St. Peter? Where does one turn for an earthly authority figure to follow?

Blogger Nate September 23, 2012 9:17 AM  

"I can't decide whether 30-06 is as big a step up from 308 as 308 is from 7.62x39. Used both 308 and 7.62x39 at the range today, and maybe the 30-06 is caliber of my next rifle."

The benefit of the -06 is with modern rifles and modern powder you can load it up considerably hotter than you could in the old days. A .308 and a 30-06 are largely similar ballisticly. The difference is in the hand-loading capabilities the extra room in the 06 case allows.

Blogger Nate September 23, 2012 9:22 AM  

"Disagree with his views as one wants, but he is no crazier than Nate."

I should very much like to know what ideology I hold that compares to Wheeler's pedofest boy-love obsession.

Blogger Nate September 23, 2012 9:22 AM  

speaking of that... did I read something in that Bio about Wheeler applying for work in the athletic department of Penn State?

Anonymous George September 23, 2012 9:34 AM  

John wrote:

"Can somebody tell me exactly how the Republicans became so absolutely batsh!t insane [regarding Cuba]?"

That would the be the South Florida Cuban vote that is the culprit. I'm not sure Obama or the Democrats are too much better on Cuba.

The thing is, there is no real significant political gain to supporting rapproachement with Cuba, despite the obvious economic and diplomatic gain. However, this is where an Obama second term could come in handy. Without ever having to win Florida again, Obama might want to move relations with Florida forward.

Blogger Positive Dennis September 23, 2012 10:02 AM  

Here is what I said on my blog on each candidate and the future.

My friends and readers that vote have an interesting “Sophie’s Choice.” They can vote for Romney who will decrease the economic risk of catastrophe by a few years, but increase the short term risk by war. Or they can vote for a slightly less warmongering Obama, and let the economic malaise continue unabated.

http://www.prophecypodcast.com/journal/2012/9/22/simpson-bowles.html


Of course, predictions are always difficult, especially about the future.

Anonymous O.C. September 23, 2012 10:19 AM  

"I can't decide whether 30-06 is as big a step up from 308 as 308 is from 7.62x39. Used both 308 and 7.62x39 at the range today, and maybe the 30-06 is caliber of my next rifle."

The .30-06 was designed more than a century ago to be a high-powered round that functioned well in a Mauser-type bolt action rifle. The .308 was designed about sixty years ago to pack the power of a .30-06 into a shorter cartridge that worked better in an automatic or semi-automatic action. When loaded with bullets of the same weight, they're roughly identical.

The 7.62x39 was designed around 1945 as attempt to come up with a medium-powered round that was more effective than the pistol-type cartridges used in submachine guns but easy to use by poorly trained conscripts who weren't expected to do any accurate long-range shooting.

Personally, I wanted to get one of the Lewis Machine & Tool LM308 models, but there's a two-year-long waiting list to get one. Say what you will about Obama, he's been great for gun sales.

Blogger James Dixon September 23, 2012 11:47 AM  

> johnc is the first I've seen to make the case that Mittens is actually the faster path to the inevitable implosion.

Well, if you of the opinion that the US must collapse before it can rebuilt, that makes your choice obvious, doesn't it?

Blogger Nate September 23, 2012 1:21 PM  

"When loaded with bullets of the same weight, they're roughly identical. "

Except that the powder has improved... and smaller amounts of powder result in the same power. So if you take a factory 30-06 you'll find its only about 75% full... where as a 308 is full.

Anonymous O.C. September 23, 2012 2:22 PM  

Agreed. I should have said something like, "in _factory_ loads with bullets of the same weight..."

Thanks to the extra case capacity you can handload the .30-06 hotter, but I've met too many handloaders who were a menace to themselves and everyone around them, so I never recommend that to anyone I don't know really well. On Vox's blog, I'll say, "If you want something hotter than a .30-06, check out a .300 Win Mag."

Anonymous Stilicho September 23, 2012 5:20 PM  

Personally, I wanted to get one of the Lewis Machine & Tool LM308 models, but there's a two-year-long waiting list to get one.

She's an excellent rifle. I call her Vera, but unlike Jayne, I wouldn't trade her for Christina Hendricks.

Anonymous The other skeptic September 23, 2012 9:51 PM  


She's an excellent rifle. I call her Vera, but unlike Jayne, I wouldn't trade her for Christina Hendricks.


She's a very expensive rifle ...

With 7.62x39 I can get 10 rounds in an 8" circle at 50 yards in 10 seconds over iron sights with my old eyes (from a bench).

Next I have to work on 100 yards.

It turns out that my Saiga can take a 30-round AK mag (restricted to 10 round in the People's Republic of Mexifornia) and feeds very well. Don't need a bullet guide. Just need a little filing of the mag catch.

I have to work on feeding on the Remington 308, however. It fails to feed about 1 out of five. Maybe it is my bolt handling technique.

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