The final forecasts are as follows:
Gallup: Romney 50, Obama 49
Rasmussen: Romney 49, Obama 48
Silver: Obama 51, Romney 48
It may be worth nothing that the Gallup deviation in 2008 exaggerated Obama's percentage by 2.0 and was 2.0 too low on McCain. Rasmussen nailed McCain and was 1.0 low on Obama's total.
UPDATE 6:32 PM
Pasco County in Florida reports the following with 67.2% turnout so far.
Republicans: 89,359 of 120,860 voted. (73.9%)
Democrats: 72,273 of 108,154 voted (66.8%)
In 2008, McCain got 110,104 votes to 102,417 for Obama with 73.4% total turnout. That's 1.08 Republican/Democrat vs 1.24 tonight. Conclusion: initial edge to Romney.
UPDATE 6:45 PM
Drudge reporting early exit polls indicating Florida and North Carolina for Romney, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada for Obama, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and Iowa too close to call. Another good sign for Romney, as media always spins exit polls toward Democrats. We'll learn a lot more once Virginia results are reported; that's the key state now.
UPDATE 7:00 PM
No surprises yet. Virginia too soon to call. Romney does take Indiana, which is a big switch from 2008, but expected. Irrelevant initial Electoral College count is 19-3 Romney. However, Romney has 53-41 edge among Virginia independents in exit poll; Obama won them in 2008.
UPDATE 7:45 PM
Electoral College is now 49-3 but still no surprises or calls on Virginia or Ohio.
UPDATE 8:40 PM
Politico has Romney up 56.3 to 42.3 in Virginia with 31.7 percent reporting but still no call there. There must be some major Democratic counties missing. Neck and neck in Florida with 6 million votes reported.
It's starting to look as if I'm wrong. Pennsylvania was just called for Obama. If Virginia and Ohio both go for Obama as well, Romney is done.