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Friday, November 02, 2012

Mailvox: The silence of the Keynesians

BK asks why Paul Krugman and the Neo-Keynesians aren't celebrating all those windows broken by Tropical Storm Sandy:
If, as per the NeoKeynesians, the government action in economy like building some bridges somewhere is good for economy, then don't you think Sandy has given the government the right opportunity to improve the economy- by rebuilding things. ( I guess they don't care about the broken window, do they.)  Why is it that Krugman and Co are not declaring publicly that "Sandy is good for America", then? Are they afraid that such a statement will not be good for Obama campaign? That would be double standards then - keep quiet about your theory when it is unpopular, speak it out and implement it other times to gain popularity. In that case, why isn't the Romney people exposing the double standards of these people to gain advantage?
Krugman and company are (mostly) keeping quiet on the tropical storm stimulation being provided to the US economy because it is a concept too manifestly absurd to be accepted by the general public when the public is actually dealing with the concrete reality of the devastation.  Keynesianism is the sort of gassy theoretical model that only holds up as long as it isn't held accountable by events, which is why you never see Keynesians talking about economic history or even showing any sign that they are familiar with economic history.

As for the Romney supporters, they aren't exposing the double-standards of Krugman and other Obama supporters because they, too, are Neo-Keynesians.  They are the flavor known as monetarists, heavily influenced by the Keynesian reformist Milton Friedman, but as Steve Keen and other economists of left and right have pointed out, they're all operating within the same conceptual neoclassical framework, speaking the same Samuelsonian language.

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94 Comments:

Anonymous Roundtine November 02, 2012 4:20 AM  

Neo-Keynesian hierarchy of stimulus
1. Borrow and spend
2. Tax and spend
3. Looting (redistribution)
4. Violent looting
5. Violent looting of foreigners (war)
6. Fullscale War
7. Alien invasion

Anonymous zen0 November 02, 2012 4:39 AM  

Apparently what is good FOR the economy according to Neo- Keynsian theory is not actually good for many of the people IN the economy.

Anonymous Stilicho November 02, 2012 6:30 AM  

Punch a Keynesian, stimulate the health care industry.

Anonymous The Great Martini November 02, 2012 7:19 AM  

I'm not sure this is a fair rendition of what Keynes had in mind. For one thing, hurricanes like Sandy or Katrina also destroy our ability to produce, trade, etc. They destroy economic infrastructure, so government spending for remediation doesn't correspond directly to normal economic stimulus. Economic stimulus normally begins with a healthy infrastructure, while disaster relief must rebuild one first to get back to a normal status. That's the same as just giving away money without expecting any results as compared to doing the same under normal circumstances when you're going to expand on existing conditions, etc.

The same type of argument could be applied to wartime spending when your country is in the privileged position of not having been destroyed, as happened to the US in WWII.

Second, it's not totally clear (to me, anyway) exactly what Keynes meant with his original dig holes and fill them in passage, which I just looked up. It could be that he only meant that government stimulus would benefit a regional economy, not a country's economy as a whole, and this would certainly make sense. If you send money into a region, no strings attached, conditions are going to improve, everything else being equal.

Anonymous Daniel November 02, 2012 8:04 AM  

Maybe it is just because we don't enough firemen. You know, producing houses.

Blogger LP 999/Eliza November 02, 2012 8:18 AM  

Yep, yep, neocons and neokens are all either horrow show has to offer America. Either way, K'ism like feminism (F'ism) shall FAIL.

Anonymous Rantor November 02, 2012 8:20 AM  

We are already hearing disgruntlement that despite the disaster in NY and NJ, the New York Marathon will take place as scheduled. Hundreds of cops and emergency workers will be needed for the security and safety of the marathon.

But the Marathon will stimulate the economy, those homeless on the beaches? Not so much

Anonymous Michael November 02, 2012 8:22 AM  

Daniel November 02, 2012 8:04 AM Maybe it is just because we don't enough firemen. You know, producing houses.

I laughed, yes I did.

Brings this to mind:

Burn!


Blogger LP 999/Eliza November 02, 2012 8:24 AM  

I had to wonder if Krugman didn't want to offend his liberal northeaster readership of trendies who WORSHIP all things NYC or NJ. I am very sad and sorry for the loss and financial devastation that so many families have suffered.

Anonymous DrTorch November 02, 2012 8:27 AM  

Adding to the misery

http://www.waff.com/story/19981857/some-nonunion-ala-crews-turned-away-from-sandy-recovery

Anonymous zen0 November 02, 2012 8:44 AM  

The Great Martini is stirred, not shaken, and is going in circles.

Blogger Joshua_D November 02, 2012 8:50 AM  

Stilicho November 02, 2012 6:30 AM

Punch a Keynesian, stimulate the health care industry.


I want the t-shirt.

Daniel November 02, 2012 8:04 AM

Maybe it is just because we don't enough firemen. You know, producing houses.


Hahahahahahaha! Bwaaaaaahaaaaaaahahahahahaha!

Anonymous dh November 02, 2012 8:53 AM  

> Apparently what is good FOR the economy according to Neo- Keynsian theory is not actually good for
> many of the people IN the economy.

Not a strong argument. Good for the goose/good for the gander is not an economic recommendation.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2012 8:57 AM  

> Hundreds of cops and emergency workers will be needed for the security and safety of the marathon.

That's the problem. Those people are needed elsewhere right now. They should refuse to work the marathon.

Anonymous Loki of Asgard November 02, 2012 9:01 AM  

Neo-Keynesian hierarchy of stimulus
...
7. Alien invasion


I grow increasingly perplexed as to why I am counted a villain. Even the feeble attempts of those lackwit Chitauri with whom I was saddled caused a very great stimulus to the economy, did they not? All that window-glass, literally broken out! All those jobs I created for emergency-room physicians! The research into weapons technology that I stimulated!

Sometimes I question whether your race of ingrates even deserves me.

Anonymous JartStar November 02, 2012 9:17 AM  

Evacuations, just a pleasant week of vacation.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2012 9:18 AM  

> Sometimes I question whether your race of ingrates even deserves me.

Obviously not. Your attentions might be better directed elsewhere. The Skrulls or the Shi'ar might be more appreciative.

Anonymous Josh November 02, 2012 9:27 AM  

I was shocked to receive an email from the economics group at Wells Fargo that cited bastiat to argue that hurricane sandy would not provide any economic stimulus.

Anonymous Stilicho November 02, 2012 9:36 AM  

I was shocked to receive an email from the economics group at Wells Fargo that cited bastiat to argue that hurricane sandy would not provide any economic stimulus.

That is shocking. In a few hundred years, they'll be quoting Mises and advocating sound money.

Anonymous Loki of Asgard November 02, 2012 9:45 AM  

Obviously not. Your attentions might be better directed elsewhere. The Skrulls or the Shi'ar might be more appreciative.

I'm sorry, what was that? I cannot hear you. Perhaps your voice might carry better if you were on your knees.

Anonymous Orion November 02, 2012 9:54 AM  

Of course GM, maybe this is simply the scenario that Keynes described writ large and proving that the idiocy doesn't work. Claiming the size of the disaster is beyond reason is baloney. If it had devastated the country to the Mississippi maybe... but all of the industry needed to rebuild exist this side of the river still. By Keynes' reasoning it should give a huge shot in the arm to the areas further west. But it won't because that simply isn't how things work on the obvious and empirical end of things.

Anonymous The other skeptic November 02, 2012 10:08 AM  

The silence of the clowns.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2012 10:11 AM  

> Perhaps your voice might carry better if you were on your knees.

I'm sorry, for reasons beyond my control, I can't do that at this time. :(

However, I can possibly phrase my point in a more appropriate and pleasing manner.

"Oh most powerful, supreme, and gracious Lord of trickery, we beseech you that we are not worthy of your attentions and beg that you turn your gaze to those who might be more worthy, the Skrull and the Shi'ar. We do this in appreciation for all that you have done for us in the past, and in surety that it such will only enhance your power and stature amongst the lesser pretenders who currently consider themselves your superior."

Is that better?

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2012 10:12 AM  

Rats. My editing left a extraneous it in the above. Consider me duly chastised.

Anonymous RedJack November 02, 2012 10:21 AM  

Eariler this week, I did hear many people say that the storm was good for the economy as it will generate a lot of sales of buidling supplies.
I think it was on ABC, but I am not sure. They drop that line pretty quick though.

Anonymous zen0 November 02, 2012 10:21 AM  

Not a strong argument. Good for the goose/good for the gander is not an economic recommendation.

Not an argument but an observation.

However, if economics is an end in itself without reference to whether it is good for people or not, what use is it to them? What ultimate purpose does all this theoretical flailing serve?

Anonymous Loki of Asgard November 02, 2012 10:34 AM  

"Oh most powerful, supreme, and gracious Lord of trickery, we beseech you that we are not worthy of your attentions and beg that you turn your gaze to those who might be more worthy, the Skrull and the Shi'ar. We do this in appreciation for all that you have done for us in the past, and in surety that it such will only enhance your power and stature amongst the lesser pretenders who currently consider themselves your superior."

As you mortals say, nice try.

Anonymous Tallen November 02, 2012 10:37 AM  

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2226642/Muslim-clerics-say-Sandy-Gods-way-punishing-America-anti-Muhammed-film.html

Sandy was actually a religious disaster not a natural disaster. 97% of all disasters are caused by religion therefore religion is evil.

On a more serious note, I see Iran has offered to send aid workers to NYC. Personal motives aside (chance to get away from their country) it seems to be a generous offer considering all the sanctions we keep piling on them.

Anonymous Randy M November 02, 2012 10:49 AM  

I did see one argument quoted that at least the rebuilding would have a positive economic effect, but I don't remember the source.

Of course, that's true--so long as one takes the foolish position of not looking at the situation *on net.*

Anonymous JartStar November 02, 2012 11:00 AM  

OT, but the polls are swinging towards Obama. If he evens it up over the next three days he wins. Karl Rove pointed out the other day that incumbents get +1-1.7% in the actual election over the polls. If it is 49.5% to 49.5% this weekend Obama should easily win.

By Sunday night the undecideds will have likely decided and the electoral college map strongly favors Obama.

Anonymous patrick kelly November 02, 2012 11:04 AM  

LOKI: "I grow increasingly perplexed as to why I am counted a villain."

If you'll let me buy Cuban cigars I'll support you as Ubber Supreme Evil Villainous Overlord.

Anonymous The Hulk November 02, 2012 11:09 AM  

"I'm sorry, what was that? I cannot hear you. Perhaps your voice might carry better if you were on your knees."


...


Puny god.


Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2012 11:12 AM  

> As you mortals say, nice try.

As a trickster, I thought you might appreciate it. :)

Anonymous Porky? November 02, 2012 11:20 AM  

I just heard on the news that Obama inherited the worst economic crisis since the great depression.

If true, this could be a real game-changer in next Tuesday's election. Has anybody else heard this?

Anonymous Noah B. November 02, 2012 11:24 AM  

"OT, but the polls are swinging towards Obama."

Most of these polls are oversampling Democrats by 5-8%. This is especially curious in light of the fact that, as recently as 2010, the fraction of the population that self-identified as Democrats was at an all-time low, well below the fraction that self-identified as Republicans, which has held relatively steady in recent years. Those voters who ceased claiming to be Democrats now seem to be claiming to be Independents, and Romney is leading solidly with Independents at this point. Very little reasoning has been provided by the pollsters for making such a dramatic statistical adjustments, and I am not aware of any evidence of a huge Democratic advantage in voter enthusiasm, which would seem to be the only remaining factor that could throw the election to Obama. Basically, what we're hearing just doesn't add up at all.

Based on the statistics, the only way Obama can win at this point is through good old fashioned fraud.

Anonymous Loki of Asgard November 02, 2012 11:40 AM  

Puny god.

Eh-heh-heh-heh.

Anonymous Stilicho November 02, 2012 11:51 AM  

Well, the WSJ is on board with the broken-windows-as-stimulus stupidity: Pater Tenebrarum does a great job of showing why this form of Keynesianism is so stupid.

Anonymous Toby Temple November 02, 2012 11:52 AM  

Loki of Asgard said... As you mortals say, nice try.

Puny god.

Anonymous Loki of Asgard November 02, 2012 12:11 PM  

Puny god.

Your mother disagrees.

Blogger Unknown November 02, 2012 12:25 PM  

Vox, this Ayn Randian slant of yours has got to stop. It's just nuts. Have you even read Keynes? This post shows a total lack of understanding of his work.

I would also say it shows a total lack of understanding of social organization, but this is typical of libertarians. Regardless, Keynes was one of the great men of the 20th century. He was brilliant, and deeply concerned with the welfare of his fellow man. Spreading lies about his work is simply not the right thing to do in an age where such men are so rare.

Anonymous Thanos November 02, 2012 12:37 PM  

You impugn the might of my armies? I, The Avatar of Death? You are but a pawn in my game, your guile a feign to draw out my enemies.

Anonymous Josh November 02, 2012 12:39 PM  

Based on the statistics, the only way Obama can win at this point is through good old fashioned fraud.

Feel free to cite statistics supporting your case.

Anonymous Josh November 02, 2012 12:42 PM  

Vox, this Ayn Randian slant of yours has got to stop. It's just nuts. Have you even read Keynes? This post shows a total lack of understanding of his work. 

1. Vox ain't a randian.
2. Vox has read Keynes. Many ilk, including myself, have read Keynes. Have you?
3. Wouldn't the rebuilding increase aggregate demand, which Keynes says is a good thing?

Anonymous Anonymous November 02, 2012 12:42 PM  

"Feel free to cite statistics supporting your case."

Lets ask those bussed in Somalians!

Anonymous Anonymous November 02, 2012 12:46 PM  

I just heard on the news that Obama inherited the worst economic crisis since the great depression."

The fuckstain media libtards have been saying this for some time.

Anonymous Daniel November 02, 2012 12:48 PM  

Unknown - "Have you even read Keynes?"

Thanks for providing me with a great nomination for most ignorant question of the year, but I'd offer a question to you: "Have you even read The Return of the Great Depression?"

If you are trying to educate us on that occultist Keynes, you are doing it wrong. I'd hazard that the least-read regular has a firmer grasp on Keynes than you do.

When Dagon falls down before the Ark, it isn't because he's looking for his dignity.

Anonymous Josh November 02, 2012 12:55 PM  

I just heard on the news that Obama inherited the worst economic crisis since the great depression."The fuckstain media libtards have been saying this for some time.

It's a factual statement, of course it ignores the fact that Obama has made a bad situation worse. Not that McCain or Romney would be an improvement.

Anonymous Josh November 02, 2012 12:59 PM  

Alright boys, time to start shooting fish in a barrel. Lock and load.

Anonymous biblethumper November 02, 2012 1:21 PM  

When Dagon falls down before the Ark, it isn't because he's looking for his dignity.

Lol. Daniel - rabid hound mutt of the Lord.

Anonymous Noah B. November 02, 2012 1:24 PM  

Josh, this href="http://www.gallup.com/poll/158399/2012-electorate-looks-like-2008.aspx"Gallup breakdown of likely voters by party affiliation doesn't match up with what I said about the rise of Independents. My guess for why that's the case is that there is much lower overall enthusiasm for the presidential election among Independents. Certainly that's true in my case and among many of those here. And I haven't seen a poll in quite some time that gives Obama an advantage among Independents. I did see a NewsmaxZogby poll this morning that only gave Romney a 3% edge among Independents, and that was one of the lowest I recall having seen in weeks.

If you follow the link, skip all the grade-school level BS and go directly to "survey methods." You'll see that Gallup used a large sample size and that the margin of error is +/- 1%, which starkly contrasts with the recent tendencies by pollsters to substantially oversample Democrats.

Put it all together, and you get href="http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/26/swingometer-gallup-party-id-figures-predict-solid-romney-win/"this map (which I just found.)

Anonymous Noah B. November 02, 2012 1:29 PM  

Josh, this Gallup breakdown of likely voters by party affiliation doesn't match up with what I said about the rise of Independents. My guess for why that's the case is that there is much lower overall enthusiasm for the presidential election among Independents. Certainly that's true in my case and among many of those here. And I haven't seen a poll in quite some time that gives Obama an advantage among Independents. I did see a NewsmaxZogby poll this morning that only gave Romney a 3% edge among Independents, and that was one of the lowest I recall having seen in weeks.

If you follow the link, skip all the grade-school level BS and go directly to "survey methods." You'll see that Gallup used a large sample size and that the margin of error is +/- 1%, which starkly contrasts with the recent tendencies by pollsters to substantially oversample Democrats.

Put it all together, and you get this map (which I just found.)

Blogger TontoBubbaGoldstein November 02, 2012 1:38 PM  

StilichoNovember 02, 2012 6:30 AM

Punch a Keynesian, stimulate the health care industry.

.....and (unfortunately) the legal industry, the police...

If it is Paul Krugmann that you punch, it would stimulate the media/entertainment industry.

Hell, one good punch might butterfly effect us out of this worldwide economic funk.



JoshNovember 02, 2012 9:27 AM

I was shocked to receive an email from the economics group at Wells Fargo that cited bastiat to argue that hurricane sandy would not provide any economic stimulus.

End times.

Dogs and cats living together.

Ivo Shandor on line one.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2012 1:39 PM  

> Have you even read Keynes? This post shows a total lack of understanding of his work.

Where did he mention Keynes himself? He's talking about the current crop of economists who call themselves Keynesians.

Anonymous zen0 November 02, 2012 1:39 PM  

Put it all together, and you get this map (which I just found.)

Which is altogether different from



This Map

Anonymous Noah B. November 02, 2012 1:54 PM  

@zen0

Yes, but that one appears to be nothing more than the figment of a bunch of Princeton leftists' daydreams. The redstate map was based on the same Gallup party identification numbers I also posted, and my guess is that the actual numbers will be similar to their "low end swing" scenario.

Anonymous Feh November 02, 2012 2:15 PM  

The silence of the Keynesians? Geez I wish we could make Paul Krugman shut up.

Anonymous Josh November 02, 2012 2:24 PM  

Yes, but that one appears to be nothing more than the figment of a bunch of Princeton leftists' daydreams. The redstate map was based on the same Gallup party identification numbers I also posted

Actually, both the Princeton group and 538 have maps that are based on polling data, particularly state polls.

The redstate map is actually a figment of a bunch of conservatives' imaginations. They're assuming that the electorate in each state has changed in exactly the same way as the national electorate.

The idea that Pennsylvania is going for Romney is ludicrous given that there are a half million more registered democrats than republicans.

Anonymous Noah B. November 02, 2012 3:02 PM  

All polls of likely voters hinge on correct determination of who the likely voters are, and of the data linked by Princeton that I've examined, I haven't found even one that presents details of their likely voter models. Many of the polls they cite consist of surveys of registered voters only, which tend to be far less accurate than polls of likely voters. If you've found an in-depth discussion of likely voter models buried in the Princeton data or elsewhere, I'd be interested to see that.

Over the past several months, in those cases where polls I've read have mentioned details of their likely voter models, the polls have consistently oversampled Democrats. Again, in light of the most recent Gallup data showing high confidence in a slight Republican turnout advantage, the recent practice of oversampling Democrats is highly suspicious.

Polling on a state by state basis should be more reliable than national polls, but only provided it's based on likely voter models that turn out to be correct. Garbage in, garbage out.

Anonymous JartStar November 02, 2012 3:07 PM  

The idea that Pennsylvania is going for Romney is ludicrous given that there are a half million more registered democrats than republicans.

But Romney is making an effort there which means either he feels confident about Ohio (very unlikely) or has given up on it and is making a last desperate attempt to win Pennsylvania and the election.

I was confident of a Romney win until this morning when I saw the latest polls. It appears that the undecideds are starting to decide for Obama. We will see if the trend holds through Sunday night and into Monday morning.

Anonymous JartStar November 02, 2012 3:21 PM  

These are the tossup states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. Out of this list Romney has to win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire to win the election. Challenging to say the least.

Anonymous Noah B. November 02, 2012 3:21 PM  

"The idea that Pennsylvania is going for Romney is ludicrous given that there are a half million more registered democrats than republicans."

Wikipedia puts the number at 1.2 million more registered Democrats than Republicans.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pennsylvania

So yes, even with the Gallup numbers and a potential 8 point swing toward the Republican candidate from 2008, it does seem like a stretch for Romney to win Pennsylvania.

Anonymous Porky! November 02, 2012 3:42 PM  

Obama will win

Anonymous Josh November 02, 2012 3:47 PM  

Wikipedia puts the number at 1.2 million more registered Democrats than Republicans.

In Ohio, it's similar, around a million more democrats than republicans.

So, as I've said, just giving a generic bump to the republicans across all states is shoddy work.

Anonymous Josh November 02, 2012 3:50 PM  

These are the tossup states: Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire. Out of this list Romney has to win Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, and New Hampshire to win the election. Challenging to say the least.

Ohio isn't going to go for Romney. They're not going to vote for the guy who looks like the guy who sent their factory to China.

Anonymous dh November 02, 2012 4:00 PM  

> I was confident of a Romney win until this morning when I saw the latest polls. It appears that the
> undecideds are starting to decide for Obama. We will see if the trend holds through Sunday night and
> into Monday morning.

There you go. The fake conventional wisdom is that undecideds break for the challenger. Tell that to Pres. Kerry.

Romney needs huge wins among undecideds, and it's not been in the cards since the beginning. His best bet to victory (a squeaker was he could hope for) was to pick some Democrats up.

Anonymous dh November 02, 2012 4:06 PM  

> Over the past several months, in those cases where polls I've read have mentioned details of their
> likely voter models, the polls have consistently oversampled Democrats. Again, in light of the most
> recent Gallup data showing high confidence in a slight Republican turnout advantage, the recent
> practice of oversampling Democrats is highly suspicious.

Can you post your source on this?

The voter identification problem is intense this year because so many Republicans have stopped calling themselves Republicans.

That's why the best pollsters don't use voter-self-identification to weigh their polls. It's not reliable. They use other demographics. For example, if you are a single woman of color under the age of 50, you are more likely to be a Democratic voter than those people who say they are Democratic voters. The same is true with the Republicans demographic base.

Prof. Wang at Princeton is by far the most statistically sound aggregator out there. His entire methodology (including source code) is available and open.

Romney's problem has always been the same: there aren't enough white voters. Even winning 75% of white voters no longer matters.

Florida, for example is a great example. 2012 there are close to 1 million more minorities of voting age than when Bush v. Gore rocked the nation, and Bush won by a handful of votes. The trend is accelerating.

The only reason this election isn't a challenger landslide is because of demographics. Obama will win, most likely, something like 33% of the White vote, 90%+ of the Black vote, and 65%+ of the Hispanic vote.

Anonymous dh November 02, 2012 4:10 PM  

> It's a factual statement, of course it ignores the fact that Obama has made a bad situation worse.
> Not that McCain or Romney would be an improvement.

That's an interesting statement. Some people, like VD for example, have been predicting the Big Collapse any day now, for years. When the stuff started hitting the fan, most of the sky is falling crowd though the Big One was happening.

So the fact that big one hasn't happened is contrary to what was expected in 2008. Why?

Anonymous Josh November 02, 2012 4:20 PM  

So the fact that big one hasn't happened is contrary to what was expected in 2008. Why?

Look at the increases in federal borrowing and the Fed's balance sheet.

Anonymous JartStar November 02, 2012 4:48 PM  

This is from Rasmussen: Most Americans do not feel better off than they were four years ago, but most are not feeling worse off either.

Demographics is destiny and people aren't feeling that much worse because of the unbelievable social spending in welfare, unemployment, Obamacare, and food stamps. Add with the ever increasing numbers of minorities the Obama win will truly herald a shift in American politics going forward. A white, small government (Romney is not small government) candidate will never have a chance over the next generation or more. There are too many people on the dole, and too many minority voters who like socialism of different stripes.

Democrats pop your corks when Obama wins as the White House is yours so long as you can keep handing out the goodies and even vaguely appeal to minorities. The party will keep going until we run out of money and vast stretches of the US becomes Third World.

Anonymous Noah B. November 02, 2012 5:24 PM  

@dh

I haven't saved any specific links so I can't recall exactly which polls I've read, but this graph matches up pretty well with what I recall of the oversampling of Democrats over the past few months. It's not surprising that Democrats would be oversampled in Pennsylvania or Ohio, but a national oversampling of Democrats contrasts sharply with the recent Gallup results.

Regarding the Big Collapse, these things have a way of taking longer than anyone expects. It is practically guaranteed at this point, though.

Anonymous Daniel November 02, 2012 5:48 PM  

I remember thinking in the summer of 2009 that Obama was going to have to improve quite a bit if he was going to keep his seat in the Oval Office. He's only trended downward since. The only barometer I go off is the obvious: I am literally surrounded by a large family of Democrats. There are only three who openly support him now. The funny bit is that among the non-supporters are three that lost their jobs as a direct act of an Obama initiative that sailed through Congress, and a nice handful of annoying (but honest) peaceniks who were appalled by Obama's ability to make wars multiply, and some who emotionally liked the idea of a black President and are now okay to vote against him either because a) been there done that or b) he's not as black/cool as they thought he was supposed to be.

The only ones, and I mean the only ones, since 2009 who have spoken of him at all, are those who proudly ride upon the shoulders of their foolish consistency and pretend that the hobgoblin of their little minds is an asset to be flaunted.

Everyone else remains shamefaced and silent, if not openly hostile.

I predict three things: Romney wins, third parties get good numbers, and turnout low.

Anonymous Daniel November 02, 2012 6:04 PM  

Hannibal Lecter: And you ran away?

Ben Bernake: No. First I tried to free them. I... I lowered the interest rates, but they wouldn't invest. They just stood there, confused. They wouldn't invest.

Hannibal Lecter: But you could and you did, didn't you?

Ben Bernake: Yes. I took one economy, and I ran away as fast as I could.

Hannibal Lecter: Where were you going, Ben?

Ben Bernake: I don't know. I didn't have any laws, any production and it was very cold, very cold. I thought, I thought if I could save just one economy, but... it was so heavy. So heavy. I didn't get more than a few miles when a helicopter picked me up. The banker was so angry he sent me to live at the government safehouse in St. Bart's. I never saw the Fed again.

Hannibal Lecter: What became of your economy, Ben?

Ben Bernake: I killed it.

Blogger Nate November 02, 2012 7:49 PM  

"That's an interesting statement. Some people, like VD for example, have been predicting the Big Collapse any day now, for years. When the stuff started hitting the fan, most of the sky is falling crowd though the Big One was happening"

VD has predicted no such thing. He actually has been pointing at 2030. I've pointed at 2016. This is hardly "any day now".

Anonymous zen0 November 02, 2012 9:31 PM  

When the stuff started hitting the fan, most of the sky is falling crowd though the Big One was happening.

If stuff is hitting the fan, can we rest in the assurance that it means the Big One is NOT happening then?

Anonymous dh November 02, 2012 11:02 PM  

> VD has predicted no such thing. He actually has been pointing at 2030. I've pointed at 2016. This is
> hardly "any day now".

I can't find any reference to 2030. Help out with a few links? Granted it's been 3 years (nearly to the day) since I read RGD, but there certainly isn't anything that jumps out at me suggesting that we are talking about 2030. If anything, the comparisons with Japan that are made would suggest sooner than later.

Anonymous dh November 02, 2012 11:03 PM  

> I predict three things: Romney wins, third parties get good numbers, and turnout low.

You should go to Intrade. A $100 bet on Romney winning will yield a tidy profit.

Blogger Michael November 02, 2012 11:04 PM  

Keynesianism is an IQ test.

Anonymous Roundtine November 02, 2012 11:43 PM  

Vox, this Ayn Randian slant of yours has got to stop. It's just nuts. Have you even read Keynes? This post shows a total lack of understanding of his work.

Vox: BK asks why Paul Krugman and the Neo-Keynesians......

Anonymous Stilicho November 03, 2012 6:27 AM  

Vox, I don't know if you saw this, but is it rather amusing in a grim sort of way:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-11-02/chart-day-americas-geriatric-work-force

Anonymous Stilicho November 03, 2012 6:53 AM  

If anything, the comparisons with Japan that are made would suggest sooner than later.

Nate's right. You should go read that section of RGD again. The Japan scenario (admittedly #2 in order of predicted likelihood) would have us limping along for a couple of decades.

Anonymous E. PERLINE November 03, 2012 7:47 AM  

Romney's claim that China's government is "cheating" by keepimg down the value of their products is a form of meddling. China and other offshore places of manufacture are the answer to American labor unions, and that's all they are. American labor unions don't want international competition. They want coddling by their government.

I believe that Romney would be too pragmatic to go along with that. I believe he wants to let American manufacture find its own way. I also believe that Romney truly wants government spending cut. How then, would anyone consider him to be a Keynesian?

Blogger Nate November 03, 2012 8:13 AM  

"I can't find any reference to 2030."

That's not in RGD. Vox regularly uses 2030 when asked about a timeline specifically. He does so in the comments in several threads here. He gets the number by looking at the average age a fiat currency normally survives... and applying it to the dollar apparently... or something akin to that.

I say 2016 because that is when the math says the money runs out... and by money running out... I mean the US can't even pretend to pay the interest on the debt.

The Depression Vox wrote about in RGD is in fact here. We're living through it.

Anonymous zen0 November 03, 2012 10:00 AM  

I also believe that Romney truly wants government spending cut. How then, would anyone consider him to be a Keynesian? - E.PERLINE

Read the last paragraph of Vox's post.

Paul Samuelson wrote "Economics" (the seminal text that informed modern American economics )and coined the term "neoclassical synthesis" and popularized the concept, bringing a mix of neoclassical economics and Keynesian economics and helping make this the leading school in mainstream economics in the United States and globally in the second half of the 20th century.

[ ripped from Wiki ]

Anonymous zen0 November 03, 2012 10:34 AM  

Romney's economic policies are advised by Glenn Hubbard, featured in the article Standing Behind Every Great Con Artist Is Someone Like Glenn Hubbard

Anonymous Kickass November 03, 2012 2:47 PM  

Vox, I hope you don't mind the OT.

Thank you to everyone praying for our family. We are ok. Still out of power and predicted to be so into next week. Of course, this is how you can see the %eppers in the town. My neighbor down the street is out cutting his lawn in the middle of gas rationing. I am jealous. He has a propane generator. Awesome. My kind of guy.


Looting has grown to about 20 min south of me. Anywhere, ANYWHERE, there is damage the looters are in like a flood from the gossip around here. Local radio reported a second hand account of some ex-military guys who holed up in a condo and rode out the store successfully and prepared to hold off looters being removed from their homes by some kind of "authorities". They were not allowed to take anything with them. Is it true, don't know, just not something this area usually would not report on. A man who works at the radio station asked the local DJ to let him on to relay his cousins experience. In liberal NJ, these are interesting times.

Con artists, scammers and people looking for any kind of work are flooding area as well. Again, guard dogs are a very, very good thing. Always store treats for your sweet ones.

Family in PA are posting pictures of empty grocery stores. They went out looking to stock up because a huge snow storm is coming. Yes, I know, they are stocking up now! They are the same ones who mocked me when warned this summer. Maybe this is a blessing and they will be more serious now.

People are begging for help because they are cold and out of food. I am not talking about those flooded out. The local radio station is offering tips, but many are just pissed and getting madder. One women called the day after the hurricane saying she was out of food and water and when the hell was someone coming to help? Wow.

Local assisted living communities are suffering bad. No one is coming to help. Very elderly people are on their own. No electric, no heat, no food and no family. Sad.

Amish and Mennonites arrived, hundreds of them strong, into the worst hit areas. Brought all kinds of tools and supplies. They are providing clean up and repairs FREE. God Bless them!

I think about 80 plus percent of my town has power and I am surrounded by farms. There are the small amount of locals on the one main street that appear to not be well off, but they never lost power and seem to have serious experience with redneck ingenuity (and I like that). Also, the grocery store (family owned) and Ace (family owned and Chrsitians) opened as much as possible for the locals and got supplies as fast as people needed them. Pulled generators out of their butts for people and did NOT over charge.

The rest are either closet &eppers who moved here for the same reason I did (and like I said, we are beginning to stick out a bit) or are very wealthy. Many wealthy in the state did not have simple power back up systems and are fleeing. Not a good idea.

The wealthy here are all in some kind of agricultural business. So they are good.

I post this in case it helps anyone. Bugging out is a great idea and I would have done that were I in the area to get flooded. But the BEST thing is to be in the best place you can and be ready for anything on a daily basis. Surrounded by others who think the same.

The cities can only be an absolute nightmare.

I will say this, I am glad Christie is in charge of us. He didn't mention going to enjoy a ballgame or holding a marathon. He did tell the electric companies they had to get him a plan with definitive deadlines within 24 hours and did. Good stuff!

Again, not to thread jack, but learn if you can.

Anonymous Kickass November 03, 2012 2:49 PM  

One more thing. One of the biggest scams going is a group of looters wearing local utility company uniforms that went into areas BEFORE the storm hit. Then were all over them once it hit.

No one thought anything of it. Some who stayed let them in and were robbed.

Anonymous Rantor November 03, 2012 3:11 PM  

Kickass,

sounds like open carry should be a policy on the home front.

good to here about the Amish and Mennonites coming in.

also good to know that we can always go several weeks with the food in the house. You don't have to be rich to do that. A 10 pound bag of rice and a case of broth is a good start. Bottled water and a camp stove or good grill with gas is good too.

Enough wine for a couple months of drunkeness too. Might as well enjoy the apocolypse!

Anonymous E. PERLINE November 03, 2012 3:27 PM  

ZenO, I just read the article about Glenn Hubbard and it's kind of shocking. It illustrates how well a con-artist can do on a higher level.

Mitt Romney may have been influenced by this guy but I agree the policies Romney proposed sound like a change for the better. I don't think he needs the extra money he might swindle if he reneges on his big promises.

It alerts me to what that other con-man Obama, may be swindling. He doesn't even bother to promise anything definite, yet he's negotiating for a 35-million dollar retirement mansion in Hawaii.

that if he gets elected he has to show a change for the better--otherwise

Anonymous Kickass November 03, 2012 3:51 PM  

@ Rantor, Amen Brother. The problem is, when stuff gets real...it gets real.

You can read all you want about people being unprepared around you but it is a whole other animal seeing it. I am not even hit hard. Some are living a nightmare right now.

Blogger James Dixon November 03, 2012 11:16 PM  

> One women called the day after the hurricane saying she was out of food and water and when the hell was someone coming to help? Wow.

Five days, and they're out of food and water and yelling about the power still being off.

Well, maybe now they'll have some idea how the rest of the world feels. When the power goes out here, it's often out for a week or more. In the counties to the east of us, they have two to three feet of snow from the storm, and it will take two weeks or more to get everyone's power back on. And that assumes the oncoming storm doesn't dump another two feet or more of snow and take it out again.

Anonymous Noah B. November 04, 2012 12:25 AM  

@Kickass

Thanks very much for posting and telling us about how things are going. Hang in there and stay safe.

Anonymous Kickass November 04, 2012 6:13 AM  

@James, I got ya. No one ever accused Jersey of being smart. This next storm is going to slam those areas already flooded out.

We are hunkering down. Can't leave the house. Next door had an attempted break in last night. Someone tested mine the night before.

We all tried tracking the person but didn't find them before cops arrived. We have a huge wetlands area my side backs to and the dogs alerted they were in there. They are watching the houses and testing as soon as the Husband leaves. Good thing the wives around here don't play.

Like I said, the storm didn't worry me. The few days after the storm didn't worry me...the week or more without power and gas worried me.

Now the snow on the way. Interesting times.

@Noah thanks for your well wishes.

Blogger James Dixon November 04, 2012 11:30 AM  

> I got ya. No one ever accused Jersey of being smart.

People are people. They no smarter or dumber than anyone else. But they are ignorant of what the rest of the country has to deal with. They act like no has ever been without power for four days before.

> This next storm is going to slam those areas already flooded out.

Yeah, that's the concern.

Sounds like you've prepared as well as you can Kickass. You'll be in my prayers.

Anonymous Kickass November 04, 2012 1:53 PM  

Thank you Friend.

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