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Wednesday, November 07, 2012

Nate Silver 1 Vox 0

This comment from DH sums up the election nicely:
Nate Silver was very close to perfect.  VD called the swings states wrong.  National polling is not that useful, State polling is pretty useful.
So, the good news is that we probably won't be fighting Iran or any other wars in the Middle East now.  Another African intervention or two is more likely and less problematic.  The bad news is that Helicopter Ben just got the green light for QEn.  The dreadful news is that those seemingly ridiculous D+11 samples were actually correct, which means the 2012 election has the potential to mark a demographic turning point from which the American Right will never be able to recover.  The Republican Party is going to have to move harder to the Left if it is going to compete for the female and third world votes that are now electorally determinative.  The demographics are only going to get worse, significantly worse, from here, as millions of immigrants and the children of immigrants with no connection to, or regard for, little American traditions such as the U.S. Constitution and limited government become legal voters.

Like immigrants everywhere, they will attempt to make their new land more like their old one.  And now we know they will succeed.  That's good news if you like Mexican food, not so good if you don't like corporate corruption on steroids, third world crime rates, and a lower standard of living.

And yet, in the short term, as I've been pointing out for some time now, most Americans will be better off with the Golfer-in-Chief walking the links than an authoritarian CEO-in-Chief aggressively "fixing" everything from Syria to the money supply.  If we're fortunate, Obama will be content to bask in his victory for the next four years and let the economy collapse without much more than the half-hearted Keynesian assistance he's provided in the past.

But I think it is safe to conclude that I should stick to economics and societal predictions rather than political ones.  Polling clearly trumps pattern recognition with regards to the latter.  On the plus side, now that we know the polls are reliable, there isn't really any need for short-term predictions anymore.  As Real Clear Politics has shown, anyone with Excel and a Monte Carlo plug-in can do the basic math averaging the state polls as competently as Nate Silver.

The New York Times makes it pretty clear how we can expect the left-liberals to interpret Obama's victory:
 The president’s victory depended heavily on Midwestern Rust Belt states like Ohio, where the bailout of the auto industry — which Mr. Obama engineered and Mr. Romney opposed — proved widely popular for the simple reason that it worked.  More broadly, Midwestern voters seemed to endorse the president’s argument that the government has a significant role in creating private-sector jobs and boosting the economy. They rejected Mr. Romney’s position that Washington should simply stay out of such matters and let the free market work its will.
It's hard to argue with that, except for the idea that Mr. Romney was going to actually keep Washington out of such matters if Wall Street was involved.  It appears the next book I have to read is Paul Krugman's End This Depression Now, as I have the feeling it's going to be increasingly relevant as an economic roadmap.

Labels:

154 Comments:

Anonymous Gladius November 07, 2012 3:51 AM  

Who wants to trade chairs on the Titanic?

Anonymous Roundtine November 07, 2012 3:57 AM  

Amnesty passes. Economy collapses again. Jeb Bush wins in 2016.

Blogger Galt-in-Da-Box November 07, 2012 4:00 AM  

It seems to me you don't have to worry about the GeOPapists moving left, it appears to be all the fuck they're about...
And it's KILLING them!

Anonymous TheExpat November 07, 2012 4:12 AM  

"The state is corrupt, the politicians are corrupt, and the final straw, the electorate is corrupt. There's no way out but through the storm." -Doug Casey

Of course, that would be the case regardless of who won.

Anonymous JACIII November 07, 2012 4:14 AM  

I forever regret not getting to see Chris Matthews cry.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 4:14 AM  

Karl Rove looked like he was craping in his pants on Fox News. The nation in which I put the U.S. Army uniform on and served in Afghanistan decided to kill itself. Actually it's been doing this since the 1860s and increasing every decade, but it really decided to end itself in the 1960s. The only thing I hope Obama does is withdraw all U.S. Military forces from around the world. He will appoint worse judges and our economy will most likely get worse under him. Enjoy the decline.

doclove

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 4:19 AM  

I served in Iraq as well as Afghanistan. the sad part is most don't see the danger of the USA becoming as bad as Iraq or worse Afghanistan because we decided to lessen freedom for safety and thereby increasing government which will lead to increasing tyranny eventually. Expect economic catastrophe to be worse and come sooner. I hope I'm wrong and will do what little I can to stop it, but realisticly I have little hope things will get any better, and I expect things to get worse.

doclove

Anonymous The Great Martini November 07, 2012 4:21 AM  

You're spot on on that one. Republicans are finished if they don't court the latino and of course black vote. Obama only got 39% white vote this time around. The only reason he's still in office is demographic change. Times have changed. It ain't 1980 anymore.

Anonymous NuguNugu November 07, 2012 4:27 AM  

A question for VD (and his readers):

When you said that Obama was going to withdraw, and then that he was going to throw the election, and then that he would lose in a landslide, did you actually believe any of it?

Anonymous Dr. Idle Spectator, Psephologist November 07, 2012 4:32 AM  

President Camacho on the economy

"I don't give a damn about no jobs! People need money! Lots and lots of money!"

Yeah you tell'em Obamacho.

Vox, forget the Krugman book. Just look into Camachonomics. Brought to you by President President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho, five-time Ultimate Smackdown champion, porn superstar, and president of the United States.


HOAP!!1!!1!!

//fires machine gun

Anonymous Koanic November 07, 2012 4:34 AM  

There weren't enough white people to elect Romney.

Obama 2008: Hope! Change!
Obama 2012: Let's hope things change.

Now the r's will get blamed for the collapse.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 4:35 AM  

anyway, happy 95th October Revolution anniversary... Coincidence?

Anonymous mrperceptive November 07, 2012 4:36 AM  

One informative point: While listening to Fox News (fair and balanced) election coverage tonight, I couldn't help but think there was something peculiar about all the Romney supporters who called in to express their outraged at what a socialist Obama is, while in the same breath complaining that he'd canceled military contracts or cut the military budget and caused them to lose their jobs! Wassupwitdat?

Anonymous VD November 07, 2012 4:38 AM  

When you said that Obama was going to withdraw, and then that he was going to throw the election, and then that he would lose in a landslide, did you actually believe any of it?

Believe is too strong a word. I suspected that Obama was going to withdraw, and indeed, I later learned that he was seriously considering doing so in August. In case you haven't figured it out yet, he has some sort of issue with depression. But his advisers convinced him otherwise and got him past it.

I never said he would lose in a landslide, in fact, the Electoral College total won by Obama in what is being reported as a tight election is basically the reverse of what I expected. I got the swing states wrong.

Blogger Unknown November 07, 2012 4:45 AM  

Should have just consulted Intrade and Paddy Powers. As of last evening (Nov 6.) they both had Obama winning at approximately 2:1. Always go with the money.

Anonymous Prof William Huggins of Ettenmoor University November 07, 2012 4:48 AM  

Koanic November 07, 2012 4:34 AM

There weren't enough white people to elect Romney.

Obama 2008: Hope! Change!
Obama 2012: Let's hope things change.

Now the r's will get blamed for the collapse.


While those sneaky Melonheads laugh all the way to the bank?

Anonymous Idle Spectator November 07, 2012 4:48 AM  

while in the same breath complaining that he'd canceled military contracts or cut the military budget and caused them to lose their jobs! Wassupwitdat?

Because raising a military is a legitimate function of even limited government?

Did it I get it right?

Anonymous mrperceptive November 07, 2012 4:54 AM  

No, you got it wrong, because you missed the point.

Anonymous Idle Spectator November 07, 2012 5:00 AM  

No, you got it wrong, because you missed the point.

Oh I got your point perfectly, I just discarded it because it was completely retarded equating socialism of welfare and education with getting military contracts.

But then you doubled down on the wrongness, and now I am confused.

Anonymous aynrand November 07, 2012 5:02 AM  

What America really needs is a socially conservative and relatively economically progressive party. Maybe with the impending irrelevance of the Republican party some sensible people will get together and form one. As it is, the democrats are unpalatable because of their moral degeneracy and the republicans even more so because of their economic elitism. America was strong when it's society had a foundation of Christian morals and the middle class had a foundation of high wages, backed by union power. Libertarianism is a fantasy, bordering on lunacy.

Anonymous FrankNorman November 07, 2012 5:03 AM  

Koanic November 07, 2012 4:34 AM


Now the r's will get blamed for the collapse.


Who by?

If I understand the r/K metaphor here, the K's already hate the r's, and for good reason.
The r's on the other hand will never blame themselves for anything.

Anonymous mrperceptive November 07, 2012 5:04 AM  

Oh I got your point perfectly, I just discarded it because it was completely retarded equating socialism of welfare and education with getting military contracts.

Oh, I get it, you'd rather siphon all the money from public schools and food stamps into the military. What a brilliant idea, you should run for office.

Anonymous Idle Spectator November 07, 2012 5:11 AM  

Oh, I get it, you'd rather siphon all the money from public schools and food stamps into the military. What a brilliant idea, you should run for office.

Do you? Will Jews be handling the money too? I'm trying to flesh out the mrperceptivian plan here.

Anonymous Orville November 07, 2012 5:13 AM  

I shall refrain from all things politic,
and scrap the sole of my shoe with a stick.

Keeping an eye out for more piles of shit,
whether elephant or donkey I care not one bit.

Anonymous TheExpat November 07, 2012 5:18 AM  

"Some people are cheering so loudly, you'd think OJ was acquitted again." -GS Elevator Gossip

Anonymous Rosalys November 07, 2012 5:20 AM  

It took last night for it to finally sink in, but I have finally reached my John Galt moment. I am disappearing from the voter lists. I will no longer participate in the charade. I will never vote again.

Anonymous mrperceptive November 07, 2012 5:21 AM  

Do you? Will Jews be handling the money too? I'm trying to flesh out the mrperceptivian plan here.

Let's agree to disagree, I don't want to get sucked into a discussion about the origins of the Fed, fractional reserve banking, or our reptilian overlords.

Anonymous Rantor November 07, 2012 5:23 AM  

So, important lessons,

Rasmussen's model's are invalid. He had a few great calls, but couldn't get this one. Indeed, he was unable Monday to predict the Tuesday outcome. Based on faith in Rasmussen's record, I predicted Romney to win the popular vote but I felt we could not predict the electoral college, as much as it galls me, I must read more Nate Silver.

I said in the Spring that this is Obama's election to lose. Most around me didn't want to believe that, they thought something would be different. Nothing was different. A key indicator: the stock market is up (S&P up 75% since the inauguration). We are just coming out of a long, counter-trend rally and that means national optimism remains high. The DOW would have had to be well below 12,000 indicating more anti-imncumbent mood for Romney to win.

I also felt that Mitt Romney was just another Bob Dole (Old GOP Moderate Loser), and he was. While some indications were that he was gaining, it was never enough and after the first debate he went all nice and didn't fight for it like the nation depended on it.

All may not be lost, if things start collapsing as Prechter and other's predict, anti-incumbent sympathy will grow and by 2016 attitudes may be very different. A DOW below 10,000 is the kind of negative mood required. Of course with Bernanke working to prop the market and increased socialism all around who knows what a collapse may look like. While such negative social mood would normally throw the bums out, or it could end up all FDR on us with the miserable people voting for more free bread, if not circuses.





Anonymous Roundtine November 07, 2012 5:31 AM  

It took last night for it to finally sink in, but I have finally reached my John Galt moment. I am disappearing from the voter lists.

2013 Going Galt: get on welfare and buy gold coins with the checks.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 5:33 AM  

Think of it this way,
Riding out the storm will be easier in WA & CO.

In Cali, you have to scrape up $70 for a dr.'s recommendation.

Anonymous Koanic November 07, 2012 5:55 AM  

Red and blue map pretty well to K and r, relatively speaking

"If I understand the r/K metaphor here, the K's already hate the r's, and for good reason.
The r's on the other hand will never blame themselves for anything."

No, when K's truly hate r's, r's are toast. The main problem is K's who extend their egalitarian in-group status to r's. Hence the importance of blame.

Blogger tz November 07, 2012 5:58 AM  

Are people immigrating to Greece?

Thatcher noted Socialism works until you run out of other people's money.

Perhaps we need tomwiden the NAFTA superhihway, so when we collapse, Mexicans and Central Americans can invade Winnipeg. But after that, where shall they go.

I commented in another place the budget will be cut by reality, though it will be without anasthesia.

I have one bright hope. A libertarian is a socialist who has been imprisoned. The Catholic church has libertarian roots (they need to reread their own doctors and encyclicals), and the nattering about paying for contraception will disappear and become a serious liberty revoultion when Obama starts treating Catholics like Muslims - no habeas corpus, the no fly list (Beelzebub is now the lord of the flyers), and expanding the Bob Jones U case to cover thwm.

Every few hundred years, the church has to relearn to hate the state, to separate and divorce. "The Great Society" ís the "City of Man", not the kingdom of God.

Anonymous jSinSaTx November 07, 2012 5:58 AM  

Vox, with regards to social predictions and opinions, have you not held that the homosexual movement was a boom times phenomenon that would retreat in harder times? Given the ballot initiatives tonight do you see any reverses to this in the future regardless of economic developments?

Anonymous jSinSaTx November 07, 2012 6:05 AM  

http://www.wnd.com/2010/08/189197/

Being one expression on that. You admit the possibility of being wrong. Do you believe you were?

Anonymous Johnny Reb November 07, 2012 6:10 AM  

As if these two Clowns weren't already leftist enough now the GOP needs to move left to stay relevant? Sounds about right. This was a fun one alright, liberals terrified Romney was a crazy right winger and conservatives praying maybe he'd turn out to be one after all. Fireworks and cheers all round the neighborhood tonight. It's swpl land here and from local bar conversations the educated idiots have no clue what's coming. Question is whether the inevitable is going to be a full on crash into the wall or just a long slow malaise? The goose is cooked and the idiots celebrate. Hopefully Vox is right and President Do Nothing lives up to that name. Well except for withdrawing our troops. Frankly though he doesn't worry me, it's the crowd he surrounds himself with; Jarrett, et al. That could be a whole other thing...

Anonymous zen0 November 07, 2012 6:11 AM  

A key indicator: the stock market is up (S&P up 75% since the inauguration).

And down 83% in relation to the purchasing power of gold. The stock market has nothing to do with the mood of the country, just the diligence of the Algos and Bernanke's printer.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 6:11 AM  

it is official there are now more takers than makers in the u.s. it has offically become a socialist country. vox once had an article that had the quote "america, done and dusted". very prophetic......... old white guy.

Anonymous VD November 07, 2012 6:17 AM  

Vox, with regards to social predictions and opinions, have you not held that the homosexual movement was a boom times phenomenon that would retreat in harder times? Given the ballot initiatives tonight do you see any reverses to this in the future regardless of economic developments?

Yes. No, not at all. We are still in the boom times in terms of both debt and social mood. Z1 is at an all-time high, the stock market is still up, and Obama is smiling and talking about how "the best is yet to come".

Anonymous Flinders November 07, 2012 6:18 AM  

Here is why I would take Vox's word over anyone in the media. He admits when he is wrong without being evasive.

I expect politicians to lie or evade questions but the way so many in the media do it is just disgusting.

Anonymous Salt November 07, 2012 6:19 AM  

Well, small business now knows. It'll be part time jobs in a part time economy. There will be a discount on goose bought with SNAP cards for the next few months.

Anonymous Apeman November 07, 2012 6:20 AM  

What shocked me was hearing yesterday from a working class guy who is Republican and voted for George Bush and all that that he was thinking of voting for Obama. In fact, almost all of the white working glass guys that I work with voted for Obama but I expected that.

But hearing a former Bush voter waver and I knew that Rommey had failed to make the case that he should be elected because he was not Obama.

Blogger Crude November 07, 2012 6:21 AM  

Right now I'm hearing some rumbling from the GOP about how this loss is all the fault of social conservatives, whose pro-life and anti-gay-marriage antics turn off women and such. I actually wonder if the eventual GOP response is going to be turning into something like a Christian version of what I take to be the asian political model - socially conservative positions, and socialist economic planning.

Blogger Crude November 07, 2012 6:23 AM  

I mean asian political model mostly in terms of the economic side of things. My impression is that asia tends to be socially conservative outside of Thailand, but I doubt it's central to their governing policy.

Anonymous TLM November 07, 2012 6:26 AM  

Demographics, demographics, demographics, blah, blah, blah. Maybe, just maybe, it had something to do the Gop nominating a freaky weird uninspiring Mormon ex'Democrat. And who can forget that in 08 they ran mccain, the biggest asshole in the Senate. Put a quality candidate on the slate and principled people will drop the apathy.

Anonymous jSinSaTx November 07, 2012 6:27 AM  

So, you believe that the pendulum will swing back, it will just take a more severe economic contraction or collapse of some sort?

No doubt that could be decades away. Perhaps European developments will give some indication on the way it might play out.

Anonymous The Great Martini November 07, 2012 6:27 AM  


I also felt that Mitt Romney was just another Bob Dole (Old GOP Moderate Loser), and he was.


No, Andy Borowitz had it right, Mitt was the Republican version of the effete, elitist jerk that Dems have been stuck with multiple times, from Dukakis to Gore to Kerry. It was just the Republican's turn to lose with that guy.

Anonymous Mr. Nightstick November 07, 2012 6:27 AM  

I am so saddened by this. It's complete madness. What am I gonna do?

Anonymous zen0 November 07, 2012 6:31 AM  

Mr. Nightstick November 07, 2012 6:27 AM

I am so saddened by this. It's complete madness. What am I gonna do?


Embrace hopelessness, make love to despair.

Anonymous dan November 07, 2012 6:36 AM  

In past generations, you solved your problems by going out and getting a job.
Today, you wait next to your mail box for a Government check.

Welcome to a new America!

Blogger Lovekraft November 07, 2012 6:40 AM  

Repubs have a few years to move away from the image of The Party of Old White Men.

Obama can spend the next four years playing emperor.

Anonymous Rosalys November 07, 2012 6:42 AM  

"Put a quality candidate on the slate and principled people will drop the apathy."

Like who?

"So, you believe that the pendulum will swing back, it will just take a more severe economic contraction or collapse of some sort?"

This pendulum ain't swinging back.

Anonymous The One November 07, 2012 6:46 AM  

Come to NH where we give the middle finger to the FEDS and forget despair.

Freestateproject.org

Blogger James Dixon November 07, 2012 6:46 AM  

> It appears the next book I have to read is Paul Krugman's End This Depression Now, as I have the feeling it's going to be increasingly relevant as an economic roadmap.

Economic policy? Probably. For actual events, Atlas Shrugged is probably a better guide.

> I also felt that Mitt Romney was just another Bob Dole

Well, duh. There's a reason so few here voted for him. But Obama is another Carter, and there was a reasonable chance those would cancel each other out.

> anti-incumbent sympathy will grow and by 2016 attitudes may be very different.

Obama won't be running in 2016. Another democrat will. Nothing will be different. I'll hope for the best the same as always, but prepare for the worst.

> I am so saddened by this. It's complete madness. What am I gonna do?

It's always painful to watch something you love die, but some diseases are terminal.

I'll admit, I was wrong about the polls, and dh was right. Not that it matters.

Anonymous DrTorch November 07, 2012 6:47 AM  

But the auto bailout didn't work. That's what is so nutty.

Romney was a farce, and he couldn't help but rise in the polls as the election neared. But he gave it away at the end.

So either people are discontent, but want someone committed. Or the election was a WWE-style scripted event.

But now I'm hoping gov't sequestration takes hold in a big way.

Anonymous Fatso McGraw November 07, 2012 6:50 AM  

We can hope that VD's prediction of economic collapse turns out to be just as wrong (and in the same direction wrong) as his prediction of an Obama victory. I doubt it, but we can hope.

[not really]The R's need to nominate someone who can appeal to the middle. McCain and Romney were just too far right.[/not really]

Anonymous VryeDenker November 07, 2012 6:51 AM  

Next time, Vox, consult a Bookie.

Anonymous Koanic November 07, 2012 6:52 AM  

So, VD, when does white racism start making a comeback? In sync with the crash?

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 6:54 AM  

Greetings from Australia. Regular reader, rare commenter here.

It's incomprehensible to me that the "left wing" candidate in America is further right than the "Far Right" candidates here in Australia! At least in terms of economics, health care etc. (Not on social issues).

Congrats to the USA on voting in a man who will take America into the 21st century. Universal Healthcare- the rest of the Western World got it long ago!

Anonymous Judge November 07, 2012 6:54 AM  

"Well, duh. There's a reason so few here voted for him. But Obama is another Carter, and there was a reasonable chance those would cancel each other out."

But Obama is the cool Carter with Jay-Z on his ipod. Cool Carter beats boring Dole every time.

Anonymous JCB November 07, 2012 7:01 AM  

"I am so saddened by this. It's complete madness. What am I gonna do?"

Put your faith in God not politicians. Prepare for the coming socioeconomic collapse as best you can. There is nothing else to do.

Blogger JD Curtis November 07, 2012 7:14 AM  

I had prearranged with the Romney campaign to be a pollwatcher here in my county in Florida. After an hour and a half yesterday morning, I was informed that I wasn't on the Supervisor of Elections list of pollwatchers and I was asked to leave the voting area.

I am leaving open the possibility that I wasn't on their lis due to an error on the Romney campaign's part. I guess we'll see.

Anonymous AlteredFate November 07, 2012 7:18 AM  

"But I think it is safe to conclude that I should stick to economics and societal predictions rather than political ones."

In politics in the US, it's becoming apparent that whatever is the logical choice, the reasonable choice, or the plain not-as-evil choice will always lose out to the illogical, the unreasonable, and the plain evil. There's your pattern.

Blogger Aviator4 November 07, 2012 7:30 AM  

Rapidly changing demographics, 40%+ out of wedlock births, and 56% of Americans receiving a monthly gov. payout of some sort monthly. All of this means one simple thing: we're all liberals now.

Anonymous WhiteNoise November 07, 2012 7:31 AM  

"Vox, with regards to social predictions and opinions, have you not held that the homosexual movement was a boom times phenomenon that would retreat in harder times? Given the ballot initiatives tonight do you see any reverses to this in the future regardless of economic developments?"

Gay rights has hit the tipping point, aint no going back:

Bowers v. Hardwick(1986): outlawing homosexual activity IS constitutional

Lawrence v. Texas (2003): Bowers overruled, sodomy laws are unconstitutional

Same-sex marriage legal:
Massachusetts (2004)
Connecticut (2008)
DC (2009)
Iowa (2009)
Maine (2009)
Vermont (2009)
New Hampshire (2010)
New York (2011)
Maryland (2012)

Within less than thirty years, it has gone from being constitutional to ban homosexuality to now being unconstitutional (at the state level, for now) to outlaw homosexual marriage.

Once DOMA dies, it's truly over.

Anonymous RINO November 07, 2012 7:31 AM  

Forget Texas. The Republican Party is already faced with having to win without Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Colorado.

Anonymous Josh November 07, 2012 7:34 AM  

Round two, anyone?

Anonymous VD November 07, 2012 7:37 AM  

Forget Texas. The Republican Party is already faced with having to win without Virginia, Florida, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Colorado.

No, never fear. Those 30 million+ socially conservative Catholic Hispanics are going to start voting Republican Real Soon Now.

Anonymous NuguNugu November 07, 2012 7:37 AM  

VD: "I got the swing states wrong."

Well yeah, what else would you get wrong? It's not like anyone on either side of this was predicting Idaho for Obama or D.C. for Romney.

So all of the states that were either solidly Obama or solidly Romney you got right (like every other political pundit), and all of the states that were actually in play and required some insight you got wrong.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 7:43 AM  

Sounds about that time, Josh.

David

Blogger A November 07, 2012 7:50 AM  

I guess we can all celebrate now that one can lose the Jews and still win.

Anonymous SlackAttack November 07, 2012 7:51 AM  

"Then, Senators, we recur to the compact which binds us together; we recur to the principles upon which our government was founded; and when you deny them, and when you deny to us the right to withdraw from a government which, thus perverted, threatens to be destructive of our rights, we but tread in the path of our fathers when we proclaim our independence, and take the hazard. This is done not in hostility to others, not to injure any section of the country, not even for our own pecuniary benefit; but from the high and solemn motive of defending and protecting the rights we inherited, and which it is our sacred duty to transmit unshorn to our children." - Jefferson Davis

At what point do liberty minded people realize that this is the only option left on the table?

Anonymous trk November 07, 2012 7:51 AM  

The good news: 4 more years of comedy gold.

Anonymous VD November 07, 2012 7:52 AM  

So all of the states that were either solidly Obama or solidly Romney you got right (like every other political pundit), and all of the states that were actually in play and required some insight you got wrong.

That's simply not true. Michigan and Wisconsin were considered as in play as Ohio and Pennsylvania. Minnesota was even mentioned in that regard, which I thought was ridiculous as it is more left-liberal than most. That's why as soon as Pennsylvania was called for Obama, I knew it was over and went to bed. But you're acting as if this result wasn't an obvious possibility. There wasn't any great "insight" required. Everything hinged on one simple thing: were the state polls with D+11 and D+7 weightings correct. I did not think so, but as it turns out, they were.

I expect that when the post-election analyses comes out, we'll see that Hispanics have finally begun voting in numbers that are just beginning to reflect their demographic importance and that they provided the margin that Obama needed.

Blogger LP 999/Eliza November 07, 2012 7:54 AM  

@ TRK: Comedy gold at $1725!! Yeah!!

The morning after...relative peace and quiet.


Blogger Bob Wallace November 07, 2012 7:55 AM  

"Republicans are finished if they don't court the latino and of course black vote."

Latinos and blacks will never vote Republican.

Anonymous TLM November 07, 2012 7:57 AM  

A voice is heard in Salt Lake City, mourning and great weeping, Mormons weeping for their child and refusing to be comforted, because Mitt is no more.

Anonymous VD November 07, 2012 8:02 AM  

I guess we can all celebrate now that one can lose the Jews and still win.

No, they went 69 percent for Obama, down from 78 percent in 2008. But they no longer matter, what was much more significant was that 24 million Hispanics are now eligible to vote and they went 72 percent for Obama. They provided 8 million of his 54.8 million votes, or nearly 15 percent of it. And with 50 million of them now resident in the USA, the Republican Party cannot win a national election without them.

That was the difference. And I did not expect them to go more strongly for Obama than they did in 2008 (67 percent) against a guy with Mexican roots.

Anonymous VD November 07, 2012 8:04 AM  

Note that a little over half of Obama's margin of victory, 550,000 of 1,057,148, was result of the 5 percent increase in his Hispanic vote take.

Blogger IM2L844 November 07, 2012 8:04 AM  

Vox, I think you simply failed to assign the proper weight to the mainstream news media's influence. They were clearly very deliberate in choosing Romney as Obama's opponent in the general election for a reason. Romney was predetermined to be the sacrificial lamb from the very beginning. Hell, just about any of the other potential candidates could have put up a better fight.

I would also point out that Romney may have lost by a margin that could possibly be correlated with the number of disenfranchised Ron Paul supporters who refused to vote for him.

Maybe the polls reflected these things, but I don't think it matters.

Anonymous Josh November 07, 2012 8:09 AM  

Vox, what about the gop's prospects using the sailer strategy? Or are the demographics already impossible?

Blogger W.LindsayWheeler November 07, 2012 8:14 AM  

You know, in a monarchy, a black man would have never have ruled you. The tragedy, the calamity was the first election of Hussein. That a majority of white Europeans and their stupid womyn would vote a black man of them.

That is unrighteous.

As hussein is unrighteous, it shows the massive unrighteousness in the American electorate. It is the educational system and the capture of the universities by leftists.

Demographics is destiny.

And Mitt was an "ex-democrat"; another Dole/McCain kinda guy. Stood for nothing. But this all could have been a forgone conclusion had the Republican Party and Mitt's campaign brought up the Natural Born status of Obama. No Republican brought up the Natural Born Status of Obama. If the Republican party can not uphold the law, it doesn't deserve to win. No republican challenged the legal right of Obama to run for the US presidency.

Modern republicanism is the vehicle for Judeo-Masonic-Bolshevism and its drive for globalization. America is a false construct built on lies. America has always been progressive and America is the flagship for the destruction of Europeans.

Good riddance of America. Glad that the repukes have their noses rubbed in the sh#$!

Anonymous Theophilus November 07, 2012 8:15 AM  

I guess there isn't anything to do but move to a red state and try to keep it as red as possible at the local/state level and hope you can keep an influx of immigrants and fleeing liberals from other crashing states away.

Probably rather hopeless. The future does look bleak...

Anonymous Rantor November 07, 2012 8:20 AM  

So Vox, Republicans need to prep Senator Cruz to run in 2016, got to go after the hispanic vote.

We'll see what happens with immigration reform...

Anonymous Orion November 07, 2012 8:20 AM  

"Congrats to the USA on voting in a man who will take America into the 21st century. Universal Healthcare- the rest of the Western World got it long ago! "

Hence the reason why people from all over the Western World either came here for health care or if they couldn't afford it take medical holidays to Thailand or the Philippines... WooHoo!! we've added yet another indicator of a society on it's way to collapse.

Anonymous Cinco November 07, 2012 8:21 AM  

Just a few predictions for the next four years, I look forward to seeing VD's and the Ilk's.

1. Warfare. The prevailing attitude of bomb whoever you want, whenever you want, wherever you want as long as they don't come here will continue. Look forward hearing about drone strikes in countries that you can't point to on a map. Of course, this will only increase the ire of Muslims everywhere. We will continue to fund the jihad by buying their oil.

2. Demographics. I foresee the GOP trading amnesty for voter ID laws working under the misunderstanding that Latino's will magically become republican and embrace limited government even though just about every Latino dominated country is the opposite. Ultimately, this will be a death blow to the GOP. I look forward to hearing Obama say to the GOP, "Reagan did it, and you can too!" I look forward to hearing Rush choke on that anyhow.

3. Entitlements. Look forward to more of them. Between cell phones and food stamps, millions of Americans are dependent on the government for something in their life; and, THEY VOTE! If they can hand out millions of free cellphones around election time, there will be no stopping them anything now. It has truly reached the point of no return.

4. Economy. Bailouts work. Especially in swing states, and for unions. You can look forward to more of them, as long as they are connected politically.

5. Class warfare. It's coming. The massive tax hikes while in a depression will be one of the most economically unsound decisions a government has ever made, period. The middle class will continue to shrink in real terms. Game over man, game over. The melting pot melts...

Good luck with what's coming guys, may God bless. And remember, it's not the end of the world, just a rebirth of policies that failed for thousands of years.

Anonymous Roundtine November 07, 2012 8:22 AM  

The GOP could use a harder states' rights policy. If they want the Democrat base to fracture, they need to be set them against each other. Democrats win when they can take money from one part of the country/state and give it to another. When the money runs out, as we're seeing in some places now, the Democrats fight over the bone. Most cities and urban heavy blue states are unsustainable without outside cash injections.

Also, a solid Republican position, based on the results, would be no welfare for single mothers and a tightening of divorce laws so that the party that wants out of the marriage, if not the breadwinner, leaves with no alimony and no children. There is no state, not even the most conservative, that is proposing any policies to change the demographic trends regarding marriage and family formation.

Anonymous JW November 07, 2012 8:30 AM  

Wheee! Down the slippery slope to the third world.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 8:31 AM  

I've gone back and forth over the past few months. At times I've felt like Romney was the lesser of two evils. And at times I've felt like it wouldn't matter who won.

But tonight I find myself pretty discouraged, despite the fact that the fundamentals which will determine the long term outcome of America haven't changed. Whatever Romney would have done, to the average voter he represented smaller government, lower taxes, and fewer hand outs. And America has clearly embraced the exact opposite.

I suspected America would choose Obama. Thanks to blogs like this one I even understand why. I see the demographic shifts which will kill whatever is left of the old America. But watching it unfold is salt in the wound.

The past four years have been very hard on everyone I know with the exception of those who are millionaires. (Ironic considering Democrats like to be seen as the party of the poor.) I didn't expect Romney to turn the country around. But part of me honestly hoped for some small changes that would help businesses and result in a minor economic recovery. That bump isn't going to happen now. For economic reasons I feel like my life has been on hold for the past 4-5 years. I have no reason to believe that will change in the next 4. In fact I expect it to get much worse.

I told a close friend tonight that I'm honestly just tired of trying. I feel like a decent, middle class existence is completely out of my reach. I told her that I don't think it's worth trying for that any more. I'm rapidly coming to the conclusion that I should keep my eyes open for any opportunities at real wealth (i.e. a friend or family member with money starting a business where I could have a key role), but otherwise I'm ready to just check out. Just scrounge around for part time work and otherwise kick back, relax, read, play games, whatever. Maybe even move back home with mom. Honestly as long as I can keep some part time contract work coming in that might actually help her. "Enjoy the decline" as some would say.

I'm even at the point mentally of trying to get government aid some how. Maybe go back to school just for the checks. (I have a cousin who literally got paid to flunk classes. It made me pretty angry when I heard about it, but now I think I'm the fool for not doing the same.)

I could have searched job sites and submitted resumes tonight. Instead I dusted off my old Xbox 360. I just don't care any more.

Anonymous rho November 07, 2012 8:33 AM  

Interesting that Gary Johnson grabbed a million votes. 1% does make a difference, I suppose.

A year and 3 billion dollars later, we're right back where we were--gridlock.

Blogger W.LindsayWheeler November 07, 2012 8:41 AM  

Reading comments on other blogs, a lot of people are noticing the slant of the MSM. Here is Br. Nathaneil:

“How the Jews control elections”

Is it a coincidence that both ABC, NBC and CBS were started by Jews? And the NY Times the flagship newspaper of the country is owned by a Jew. As Br. Nathaneil says, “To control an election requires money and media, and the Jews have plenty of both”. And since they have both, and because the Protestants liberated the Jews from Catholicism, well…..The Jews now rule.

Erik von Kuehnelt-Leddihn in his book “Liberty or Equality” noted that before WWII, the Jews were becoming the aristocracy of Europe. Democracy never truly exists. For as Aristotle pointed out in the Natural Law or laws of nature is this principle, “All things are in either authority or in subjection”. In a democracy there is always, always a ruling elite. The Jews have become our ruling elite. They drive all the cultural markers and define what is good or not.

No one pays attention to the Laws of Nature. "Bad company corrupts good morals".

Anonymous The Lightworker November 07, 2012 8:46 AM  

NuguNugu, I didn't say or believe any of that.

Blogger Galt-in-Da-Box November 07, 2012 8:53 AM  

"NOT SHOWING UP FOR THE FUTURE"
A phenomenon that takes place when the most "conservative" element of our political structure is topheavy with bead-fingering, idol-worshipping, mackeral-snapping, child-molesting Papist sodomite hypocrites who are good for nothing but fellating Israel and blaming the fruit of their whoredoms and perversion on women and abortion...
Thanks GeOPapists, you're dismissed!

Anonymous re allow anonymous comments November 07, 2012 9:06 AM  

I don't think it's demographics that doom the GOP, I think it's a jewish-liberal controlled media. Also, this was a stolen election. As predicted by Whiskey (lol) Obama used fake polling to cover for it.

Anonymous Daniel November 07, 2012 9:07 AM  

I too thought Silver's fundamentals were off, but that was honestly the only junk that kept me paying half-attention to the election as there is no difference. The oligarchy is most obviously shifting with demography, true, but the two parties haven't been fundamentally different since NAFTA.

Enough of that. Now we can move to important things, like semiotics!

Anonymous daddynichol November 07, 2012 9:07 AM  

I guess there isn't anything to do but move to a red state and try to keep it as red as possible at the local/state level and hope you can keep an influx of immigrants and fleeing liberals from other crashing states away.

Oklahoma went 100% for Romney. No county for Obama, plus they just passed open carry.

Anonymous YIH November 07, 2012 9:07 AM  

As I mentioned on previous threads, I live in FL. But here's what's really going to tick me off:
Romney: 4,094,952
0bama: --4,141,618
Libertarian:--43,632
Not because Johnson got 43,000+ votes, but because I'll hear ''if they had voted for Romney he would have won Florida!!!''.
Mind you 0bama had become the winner before the FL vote had become final, that won't matter to talk radio and it's ''dittoheads''. For years Plush Pillpopper was bellowing ''Clinton didn't win, more people voted for Bush and Perot than they did for him'' conveniently omitting the fact that Perot was running against both of them.
MPAI indeed.

Anonymous Theophilus November 07, 2012 9:08 AM  

They are saying that around 117 million people voted this time, less than the 131 million who voted in 2008. Who stayed home?

Blogger Markku November 07, 2012 9:09 AM  

xkcd is topical

Anonymous RINO November 07, 2012 9:12 AM  

No, Romney isn't McCain/Dole all over again. He was incredibly efficient and even somehow lowered the gender gap from women +14 for Obama to only +4. He was willing to be confrontational when McCain just wanted to run away. The fact that Romney isn't McCain/Dole again is why it's so obvious that this is the demographic turning point. 20 years ago, or even 10 years ago, a president who eeked out 1% quarterly GDP growth (which is artificially inflated by a $1.2 trillion "G" spending deficit) and jobs numbers that don't even keep up with population growth would be doomed. Performance doesn't matter anymore, accountability doesn't matter anymore, all that matters is identity politics and handouts.

Anonymous DonReynolds November 07, 2012 9:12 AM  

I could not be more delighted this morning.

Once again, and maybe finally, those patient voters in the South and the High Plains will see that it is not possible to vote our way out of the occupation. Clearly, it is not possible, and has not been possible, for us as a people to avoid the ugly prospect of civil resistance to tyranny. I still sympathize with those peace-loving family men who simply wanted to exercise their democratic right to vote in opposition to dictatorship. It would be wonderful if it ever worked, but it never has. No dictator was ever voted out of office. How much better would it be if enslaved people could throw off the yoke of dictatorship by simply voting.....none of the terrible blood, fire, and hardship that necessarily results when people resist an overreaching government?

I have made this same point here (and elsewhere) several times over the years and will continue to do so. Freedom is not cheap, or easy, or without peril. But I continue to believe it is much better to die on your feet than live on your knees. Those who believe it is better to be Red than dead, will experience both.

Once again, it is clear as the rising sun that in these United States we are two incompatible peoples and we do not share the same understanding of the Rights of Englishmen, or American freedoms, or the proper role of government, and no amount of repeated voting will create agreement. For our mutual safety and happiness, we are and ought to be separate and apart, free to pursue our own vision of prosperity, security, and common welfare.

Anonymous Porky? November 07, 2012 9:15 AM  

Porky 1, Vox 0

Superwisdom beats superintelligence every time.

Anonymous JartStar November 07, 2012 9:18 AM  

Given your love of precision and demand of evidence for claims I'm surprised you went against statistics and numbers and toward instinct when there was no compelling evidence that the state polls were so wrong.

Anonymous VD November 07, 2012 9:18 AM  

The fact that Romney isn't McCain/Dole again is why it's so obvious that this is the demographic turning point. 20 years ago, or even 10 years ago, a president who eeked out 1% quarterly GDP growth (which is artificially inflated by a $1.2 trillion "G" spending deficit) and jobs numbers that don't even keep up with population growth would be doomed. Performance doesn't matter anymore, accountability doesn't matter anymore, all that matters is identity politics and handouts.

Bingo. And as I pointed out in the new post, 50 million Hispanics voting as much as 75 percent Democrat are going to dominate the identity politics game.

Blogger James Dixon November 07, 2012 9:18 AM  

> Round two, anyone?

Too old to fight effectively, Josh. But I can support computer systems.

And yeah, it's going to come eventually. Probably not just yet, but just look at the electoral map and note the parallels.

Anonymous HH November 07, 2012 9:19 AM  

WLW says "Is it a coincidence that both ABC, NBC and CBS were started by Jews? And the NY Times the flagship newspaper of the country is owned by a Jew. As Br. Nathaneil says, “To control an election requires money and media, and the Jews have plenty of both”. And since they have both, and because the Protestants liberated the Jews from Catholicism, well…..The Jews now rule."

Come on ...I know it was a long night and nobody is happy this a morning but really. .. didn't I see reported that majority of US Jews living in Israel voted for Romney ?; if there is really is a block that can be called the jewish vote (and you don't know too many jews because if you put three in a room and ask them the same question you will often get three very different opinions) ... if it were true that the Jews were using ABC, NBC, CBS to sway the election then why was the reporting always claimed to be so biased towards Obama who clearly was less on the side of Jews than Romney?

Looks .. VD is right... its simple demographics and today is day one --- you got yourself a democracy (or rather a republic with some democratic window dressing) and the republican position is a minority position and either it changes to the reality of life or disappears.

I am not that happy this morning but I live and that's all you can really expect. The reality is that other than one being slightly darker than the other, these guys were 90%+ congruent of their positions so things will stay the same.

So stop your whining ... sign up for some adult education classes in conversational Spanish and if they offer it, perhaps the NRA pistol course too.

Anonymous Brendan November 07, 2012 9:19 AM  

Close enough to what I thought, although Obama did better in Virginia and Florida than I expected.

The broader message is that the US is essentially finished in political terms -- or, rather, conservatism of any meaningful stripe is essentially finished in the US.

The GOP is going to take note, now, that they cannot win without increasing their appeal to a broader demographic, which means non-whites, young single women, young people in general. This means much, much, much less conservatism because all of these groups are fundamentally anti-conservative. The GOP will have the choice to do this, or to slide inexorably into a Whig-type of irrelevance.

My guess is that the party as it is will split between a "mainstream" version which moves to the left and ends up in the centre or slight left of centre, and a more conservative version which is kind of viewed as a fringe, but gets a certain % of votes. Both will offset each other, leading to a left wing hegemony moving forward in *national* politics in the US (states will, of course, remain divided).

Another possibility is that the GOP will hunker down and avoid a split, focusing on states where it can win as a conservative party, and accepting that it can't win national elections. I think that is certainly a possible scenario -- it really depends on which side wins the coming civil war in the GOP, and what the loser decides to do.

Either way, however, the impact of any kind of conservatism (other than a very skinny and vague somewhat less government, somewhat lower taxes type of conservatism) seems to be inexorably on the wane, and the resulting transformation of the United States will be total, comprehensive, culturally destroying and fundamentally negative in my view -- but if I were a 24 year old Latina, I probably wouldn't see it that way.

Somewhat-Richer-Version-of-Brazil here we come! Hasta la vista, USA!

Blogger Miss Carnivorous November 07, 2012 9:19 AM  

I have a prediction, this may sound wacky but...., I think the American car companies are not doing nearly as well as they claim. I think that, like the banks involved in the housing loan fiasco, the companies who received bailouts are going to be shown to have lied and obfuscated their real profit margins. I think they are propped up by mostly smoke and mirrors.

Anonymous VD November 07, 2012 9:20 AM  

Given your love of precision and demand of evidence for claims I'm surprised you went against statistics and numbers and toward instinct when there was no compelling evidence that the state polls were so wrong.

Love of history.... Also, I think I've identified the factor I missed. I thought the Hispanic Democratic vote would fall like the Jewish and female votes did. Instead, it rose and it appears that was the difference.

Anonymous Roundtine November 07, 2012 9:23 AM  

Tucker Carlson pointed out that with 2012 demographics, Dukakis wins a landslide in 1988. Make sure to tell all your Republican friends this fact, it's really the most concise explanation of what happened. Then point out that the numbers will get worse every single year, and that's without amnesty and even assuming a total ban on immigration.

Anonymous Roundtine November 07, 2012 9:25 AM  

I think the American car companies are not doing nearly as well as they claim.

For you: GM Channel Stuffing Soars To Record

Car companies book sales when they sell to the dealer, not when the car is sold to a buyer.

Anonymous JartStar November 07, 2012 9:34 AM  

One of the biggest impacts of BO being reelected, which I have not seen mentioned here, is the change in tax rate for dividend paying stocks and capital gains. This is going to have a direct impact on millions of Americans. It essentially means that after taxes ROI in equities will be the equivalent of investing in municipal bonds but with much greater risk and volatility. This will drive most of the rest of the retail equities market out in taxable accounts.

Anonymous Caedryn November 07, 2012 9:42 AM  

So now i have a questioin for you Vox and friends. I'm 25 years old and had dropped out of college to go be productive, but now no one will offer me a chance to prove myself. I live in southwestern ohio because my family has a business in manufacturing and we've always been close knit. In three weeks I don't have enough money to eat anymore and my family is looking to do layoffs, not hire new people on as that was my option of last resort. So the question is, What the fuck do i do now?

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 9:44 AM  

"Congrats to the USA on voting in a man who will take America into the 21st century. Universal Healthcare- the rest of the Western World got it long ago!"

Yeah and the only reason the 'rest of the world' still has a form of 'advanced' health care is because the US system and its fleeced patients are subsidizing your healthcare. We pick up the slack your Universal care will not and cannot pay for in R&D and actual distribution. The question now is who is goning to pick up the tab - seems we are all going to have sub-par healthcare now.

Question heavy on my mind: I am a small biz owner - I cannot at this point fathom how we will survive. All the new taxes and regs coming on the next year or so appear designed to crush small businesses. What should be our strategy I only have 2 employees (plus 2 family) so shifting to part time will not help - or will it? Do I just suck every dime out of it and stockpile for what may be an inevitable collapse? If goods and services continue to skyrocket I believe our clients cannot take any price increase so seems the end is baked in - and quite frankly I agree with another commenter - why try, maybe we should drive the biz in the ground and get on the gov't dole.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 9:45 AM  

above - Alabamarob

Anonymous Roundtine November 07, 2012 9:49 AM  

change in tax rate for dividend paying stocks

Changes in taxes are immediately priced into the market. The 2013 Fiscal Cliff Could Crush Stocks

Wealthy people hold the most stocks and dividend income will fall by 30% for them if Obama has his way. Companies will base dividend policy off that class of investors, which means fewer and smaller dividend increases.

Anonymous jm November 07, 2012 9:57 AM  

I'm guessing a lot of white folks took Bill Maher's admonition to heart.

Anonymous Roundtine November 07, 2012 9:59 AM  

I like Tim Knight's take: "Simply stated, the Obama administration, along with all of its departments, now have lost the reason to lie. The numbers can be truthful, because the next four years are secure."

Anonymous DonReynolds November 07, 2012 9:59 AM  

Caedryn.....the layoffs are a blessing in disguise. Now you will get an opportunity to work much longer hours for less pay, like so many other family businesses. Expect to move in with other family members and eat their food. Expect the tow truck to haul off your car while you sleep one night. Things will get mean and sometimes without, but your family will try to keep the doors open, regardless of the sacrifices that are required. Hopefully, this will be enough for the family firm to avoid involuntary bankruptcy, but your own plans will be put on hold in the meantime. This is what it is like to be committed to working for a family business when times are hard and you have no assurance that you will ever recover these years. Try to love your wife and kids (if you have any) and hope that things will get better. Work hard and pray for the best. Best of luck to you but I do not envy what your life will be like for a while.

Anonymous Caedryn November 07, 2012 10:20 AM  

Thanks Don, I guess it kind of is kind of time to understand that my life is going to halt for awhile.

I went to school for structural engineering and then hated the work so i switched to pre-medicine and through reading this blog and many others realized all i would wind up being is a slave in nicer chains and would be doing nothing to actually help so i decided to go into skilled labor (Electrician's apprenticeship with an eventual goal towards automation and logic) to be able to offer my family at least something of value besides a strong back.

It just pisses me off that I have held three patents in three areas of specialty and am an extremely productive worker as well as being consummately professional, yet not even the minimum wage jobs want me. It is frustrating that now that I understand what my duty and ability is, I have no way to actually do so. Luckily I haven't dragged a woman or children into my problems.

Anonymous harry12 November 07, 2012 10:31 AM  

.
Now I must ponder: President Biden!
.

Anonymous CunningDove November 07, 2012 10:40 AM  

I voted for Halo 4 yesterday, I scored a free download of SkyRim in the process. Let me tune this here fiddle up while the rest of the world burns!!! Me & Sargent are gonna do some work this week & weekend!!!!!

Anonymous Huckleberry - est. 1977 November 07, 2012 10:47 AM  

Fine, Silver's stopped watch was right a second time, but I still say sabermetrics/DVOA needle-grazing is bullsh*t...
This is it for the GOP in national politics. If they couldn't win in this environment against an epic fail of a clownish president, they aren't going to. The demographics are stacked against them, and the party for too long has had the false idea that third-party "protest" votes would belong to them otherwise.
Clearly, with the low, low turnout, many/most of those third party votes are quite happy to stay home.
But on the bright side, the short-term prospects for the ole US of A are better with an O win for numerous reasons, but I'll offer three. Second presidential terms in the modern era are known for:
1) Bombing people
2) Spectacular failures of domestic policy initiatives
3) Impeachment
On with the show!

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 10:52 AM  

@ Vox Day
Someone commented above that the Republicans need to get the Hispanic vote. They will have a hard time doing this. I doubt they can at least any time soon and maybe never. It took the Republican party over 100 years to get the White Non-Hispanic Catholic vote. By the way, I'm non-Hispanic White and Catholic. My Great Grandparents were all Democrats all their lives. My grandmothers were Democrats all their lives. One Grandfather voted Republican all his life. The other Grandfather voted Democratic most of his life but switched to voting Republican at the end of his life because he had come to the conclusion just like President Ronald Reagan that the Democratic Party abandoned him first so he wasn't going to vote Democratic and was going to vote Republican because the Republicans hadn't shifted away from his values as much and hadn't shifted to the left as much as the Democrats. This grandfather was born in 1913, died in 1985, and started voting Republican in 1980. My parents will rarely vote Democratic at the county level but never at the state or federal level in the general election. I refuse to vote for Democrats in the general election, but I have done so when I lived in areas where only the Democrats will be elected like when I lived in Chicago because in that city the primary is the real election not the general election which is a total farce. I only did so to get a better more conservative Democrat in office. Both parties have shifted more to the left since the 1980s.

doclove

Anonymous dh November 07, 2012 10:54 AM  

> I later learned that he was seriously considering doing so in August

This is just not true. There isn't one named source. Not one. Let's wake up. The source for that lie could easily have been Dick Morris.

Anonymous patrick kelly November 07, 2012 10:55 AM  

My gut bias was for Romney even though my head tells me there is no rational, logical compelling reason to believe the results of his governance would differ significantly from Obama's.

I suspect Vox had a similar bias that skewed his evaluation of the polls.

Anonymous dh November 07, 2012 10:56 AM  

> The question now is who is goning to pick up the tab - seems we are all going to have sub-par
> healthcare now.

It just means we can't have the cadalac care we are used to. Let's just go all in with modern pharmacology and everything else mid-80's. The very rich will subsidize their pet ailments and so we'll get lots of treatments for pesky things. Cancer will still kill you, and being fat/lazy will still lead to an early death.

And in return, we can get 10% of our GDP back to spend on better things than doctors yachts and golf clubs.

Blogger Da_Truth_Hurts November 07, 2012 10:58 AM  

Millions of old whites didn't vote for Mitt because he is a mormon.

Anonymous dh November 07, 2012 10:59 AM  

> Love of history.... Also, I think I've identified the factor I missed. I thought the Hispanic
> Democratic vote would fall like the Jewish and female votes did. Instead, it rose and it appears that
> was the difference.

This is what you are going with? You created your own voter model, weighed it yourself based on data that magically came to you from the lady in the lake, but you under projected the Hispanic vote?

Sounds plausible.

Anonymous Daniel November 07, 2012 11:28 AM  

So Colorado and Washington legalized pot, but Oregon blew it for the most awesome reason ever:

Voters in Oregon, where the pro-marijuana advocates were less organized and poorly funded, defeated a ballot measure that would have allowed the commercial growth and sale of marijuana to adults. Known as Measure 80, it would have legalized pot through state-licensed stores, allowed unlicensed growth and use of marijuana by adults and prohibit restrictions on pot.

...Dude. Got any - uh - I'm a little cash poor, man. Got to get a ballot measure organized - what was I saying?

Anonymous WaterBoy November 07, 2012 11:47 AM  

Daniel: "So Colorado and Washington legalized pot"

And now's when it gets really interesting...Romney said he would "enforce Federal law"; Johnson said "state's rights". But Obama first said he wouldn't enforce Federal law against MMJ, but he later did, on a limited basis. So which Obama is going to show up in CO and WA, now?

Anonymous Daniel November 07, 2012 11:49 AM  

Maybe Obama can better crack down on legal 1 oz. bag carriers in Colorado by running guns to Mexican drug lords.

Time to go Josey Wales on the blue coats and comancheros both.

Anonymous Cheddarman November 07, 2012 11:50 AM  

Vox,

Are you revising you 2033 date for the end of the US?


Sincerely

Cheddarman

Anonymous CunningDove November 07, 2012 11:55 AM  

So the question is, What the fuck do i do now? - Caedryn

How determined are you to stay in Ohio? There are crazy jobs available in North Dakota. Oil industry in the western region of the state is busy. If you can't get on with the oil folks, look for other jobs. They are here because Taco Bell has to pay $15/hr to get workers... Then O'Reilly's will hire them away for $17/hour. Some jobs & companies are paying per diem & wages... Don't be afraid to move away fro a little while to where the work is available. But know that if you decide to stay in Ohio, DonReynolds is correct.

Anonymous Gen. Kong November 07, 2012 11:56 AM  

A question for VD (and his readers):

When you said that Obama was going to withdraw, and then that he was going to throw the election, and then that he would lose in a landslide, did you actually believe any of it?


Many of us - likely most - never believed it.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 12:11 PM  

Robert Prechter made the call that if the DJIA (as an indicator of social mood) was above what it was when Obama took office (9000s) on election day, Obama would win. Maybe the upcoming crash will make people re-think their left leanings and pull something better out of the ashes. That's probably wishful thinking but I guess time will tell.

Brian from Ohio

Anonymous Roundtine November 07, 2012 12:14 PM  

It just means we can't have the cadalac care we are used to.

I know that's how Obamacare was sold, but that's not how it's going to work. It's going to be a total disaster. It's similar to Romneycare in Mass which I saw first hand: you need to schedule a physical months in advance and it costs more than ever. Higher prices and less care will be the result. Healthcare spending will not decline, at best it will hold level and it will probably increase. Also, the costs will be shifted onto the ever bankrupt government under Obamacare. And that 10% of GDP is going bye-bye, the real economy is going to "permanently" contract by 10% before growing out of the hole. This was going to happen under Romney too, only he might have taken 1 to 3% off that number.

Anonymous WaterBoy November 07, 2012 12:54 PM  

"Time to go Josey Wales on the blue coats and comancheros both."

I'll be itching to see if NMSP stops my RV next summer for a "random" search after I cross the border....

Anonymous Retrenched November 07, 2012 1:18 PM  

"The Republican Party is going to have to move harder to the Left if it is going to compete for the female and third world votes that are now electorally determinative."

That's it right there. It's not that the GOP will never win again; they will eventually. It's that they will never win again as a center-right, pro-Constitution, pro-free market party.

In twenty years the GOP will probably resemble the Democratic Party of Bill Clinton. I shudder to think of what the Democratic Party will resemble by that time.

As an aside I gotta hand it to Silver, he nailed it again. I expected Obama to win, but I thought it would be a lot closer than it was.

Anonymous aynrand November 07, 2012 2:01 PM  

In fact, almost all of the white working glass guys that I work with voted for Obama but I expected that.

No kidding. This is the problem the Republicans have. There are plenty of naturally socially conservative people who want to vote Republican except for the fact that they don't want to commit economic suicide. With the Republicans insisting on union busting and a "free market" (for the middle and lower class not the upper) they're going to have a progressively harder time of it, even while the country goes down the tubes culturally and socially.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 4:18 PM  

Alabamarob, mind explaining how the USA is subsidising Australian healthcare?

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 4:49 PM  

The One
Come to NH where we give the middle finger to the FEDS and forget despair.
Freestateproject.org


Is that why your state voted for Obama? Because you are all about living free? Demographics, demographics, demographics. For every Libertarian moving to the "free state" there are two or more liberals moving north from Taxachusetts, who will vote to replicate the socialist paradise they left.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 4:52 PM  

DrTorch
But the auto bailout didn't work. That's what is so nutty.


The auto bailout "worked" in the short term, and that is all that matters. Mussolini and Juan Peron were both very popular in Italy and Argentina, respectively. People should read about the corporatist states created under Fascism and Peronism, and bear in mind that Peronists still pretty much run Argentina fully 60 years after Juan kicked the bucket.

Once people get used to bread and circuses, they don't want to quit the fun.

Anonymous Daniel November 07, 2012 5:02 PM  

You are forgetting that the two-party dynamic is not the window of a slide rule. It is a teeter-totter. They want the mob uncomfortable (i.e. never satisfied) but not agitated (i.e. up in arms).

So this talk of both parties being "further left" in the future is nonsense. Eisenhower was a big government Mack Daddy-0. Nixon was practically a woman. Reagan was the biggest cannister of helium for the government balloon since FDR.

They've all been social engineers, breaking the restraint of fiscal responsibility, small government and defederalization for generations. The notion that W., McCain, Dole, Bush Elder, and Reagan somehow marked a period when the Republicans had their principles together is silly: they had their marketing together. They attracted a homogeneous batch of vaguely conservative voters to endorse them, to mixed results.

Second term Clinton-style politics ("feelgood, cooperative, not full throttle hippie") "moderation" will always be the target. Don't forget that Hollywood Reagan openly courted the libertarians and independents (while delivering nothing to them in substance) in his landslides. The dumb Republicans have long-since forgotten that they need to welcome the right-wing and the independent deltas.

The plain and simple fact is that the political machines are so choreographed and data driven nowadays that there's no "art of the possible" left. It is just science fetishism of the probable. Not only that, but the candidates are all free-trade loving, bankster bought keynesians who toss the occasional taxpayer dollar toward the social handout du jour, and for the most part govern the mess by committee in service to the Black Pope or whoever thinks they are fighting against him.

Anonymous DonReynolds November 07, 2012 5:07 PM  

I just checked in with Christian radio (AFR) and listened to the chat for a while. I was surprised to hear mention several times of the need for Christians to stand up and engage in a bit of non-violent civil disobedience against the regime in Washington. A bit of a surprise, but I do not know why. They have been backed against the wall with the re-election of Obama. Either they have to stand up or back down.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 7:20 PM  

It just means we can't have the cadalac care we are used to.

Check back with us in 2014 about that. There will be Caddilac care, but only for the rich and politically connected. The rest of us will get something else.

As the white boomers continue to age, expect to see a shrinking percentage of money spent on anything to do with geriatrics, and more on "wellness" for single mommies. That way the older voters die off quicker, while the younger ones thrive.

If you think I exaggerate, you need to see what IPAB is, and how it will work. National standards for medical care, who could possibly be against that, eh?

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 7:44 PM  

"Alabamarob, mind explaining how the USA is subsidising Australian healthcare?"

Well, the way I read it a couple years back in some good articles: subsidized healthcare (as in the rest of the world we are now joining) will only allow certain technologies and pharmacologicals. Those they do use - they will only pay cetain monies for, regardless of their cost imposed by their maker. The makers have been agreeing to the reduced compensation - and as the articles I read they only do so with the knowledge that the market in the US can then be billed to make-up the deficit. As I understand it many of the advances are attributable to the fact that the US will make up what they cannot get elsewhere (not trying to be America centric as there are great researchers around the globe, but most of the costs have been shifted to our shores). Hence in a very direct sense we are subsidizing your care for without cost shifting to the US many medical techs and drugs would not be available because yours ystem will not fully support the cost by the manufacturer.

So when our system is like yours who will be left to make up the deficit. So don't companies have few choices - either go out of business or reduce output and/or R&D? How long do you think it will be before the subsidized systems have to cut costs and availability even more because the makers refuse to sell at reduced costs? Yes the medical field may be overpriced - but what will they do when they can't get that price? What would you do? Accept less compensation for the same or more work with a glad heart? Or would you chuck it as not being worth the effort? It will be interesting to see as this unfolds.

And as way of example- my mom had a rare form of a pancreatic type of cancer. Went to a blog to get info on this specific variety and much was written in the UK. There was good info but also many complained that the gov't system would not allow technologies or medicines be used in trials or in treatments, probabley from cost basis. I saw much frustration and anger at the subsidized systems in those pages (and many tried to get into US to seek relief).

Alabamarob

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 7:55 PM  

Alabamarob
So when our system is like yours who will be left to make up the deficit. So don't companies have few choices - either go out of business or reduce output and/or R&D? How long do you think it will be before the subsidized systems have to cut costs and availability even more because the makers refuse to sell at reduced costs? Yes the medical field may be overpriced - but what will they do when they can't get that price? What would you do? Accept less compensation for the same or more work with a glad heart? Or would you chuck it as not being worth the effort? It will be interesting to see as this unfolds.

One path is pretty simple: the leader of the country demonizes the drug companies as greedy, heartless bastards who put profit before people, who are full of money and inefficiencies, and then after a few years of media campaign, just nationalizes them, placing control under the department of Health and Human Resources.

Or if that is too much, then the FDA just regulates the drug companies so much that they have to be subsidized to continue to exist, much like General Motors. Another approach would be to tax them to the point of oblivion, so that the total number of companies shrinks to one or two, that then become a kind of regulated utility.

All of the above have been done, in such countries as Fascist Italy, Peronist Argentina, and other places. These methods work quite well at controlling the market, and control of health care means control of the population in a number of ways.

Again, go see what IPAB is and how it will function, paying particular attention to its relationship with Congress.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 10:13 PM  

But am I right - Universal healthcare nations & systems rely on the large and unsubsidized US system and therefore we do subsidize Australia (and others)? I am not an economist but this explanation made sense to me.

Also, can any Ilk offer suggestions for a small biz owner for preparing for 2013 and beyond with coming tax increases (add to that todays Bonehead announcement)and economic contraction/explosion. What strategies should I ask for with my CPA, what questions should I ask? I would have done this even if Romeney had won but I feel a sense of urgency to get my affairs in order in the next 7 weeks.

Alabamarob

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 10:57 PM  

Alabamarob
So when our system is like yours who will be left to make up the deficit. So don't companies have few choices - either go out of business or reduce output and/or R&D? How long do you think it will be before the subsidized systems have to cut costs and availability even more because the makers refuse to sell at reduced costs? Yes the medical field may be overpriced - but what will they do when they can't get that price? What would you do? Accept less compensation for the same or more work with a glad heart? Or would you chuck it as not being worth the effort? It will be interesting to see as this unfolds.

One path is pretty simple: the leader of the country demonizes the drug companies as greedy, heartless bastards who put profit before people, who are full of money and inefficiencies, and then after a few years of media campaign, just nationalizes them, placing control under the department of Health and Human Resources.

Or if that is too much, then the FDA just regulates the drug companies so much that they have to be subsidized to continue to exist, much like General Motors. Another approach would be to tax them to the point of oblivion, so that the total number of companies shrinks to one or two, that then become a kind of regulated utility.

All of the above have been done, in such countries as Fascist Italy, Peronist Argentina, and other places. These methods work quite well at controlling the market, and control of health care means control of the population in a number of ways.

Again, go see what IPAB is and how it will function, paying particular attention to its relationship with Congress.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 10:57 PM  

Alabamarob
So when our system is like yours who will be left to make up the deficit. So don't companies have few choices - either go out of business or reduce output and/or R&D? How long do you think it will be before the subsidized systems have to cut costs and availability even more because the makers refuse to sell at reduced costs? Yes the medical field may be overpriced - but what will they do when they can't get that price? What would you do? Accept less compensation for the same or more work with a glad heart? Or would you chuck it as not being worth the effort? It will be interesting to see as this unfolds.

One path is pretty simple: the leader of the country demonizes the drug companies as greedy, heartless bastards who put profit before people, who are full of money and inefficiencies, and then after a few years of media campaign, just nationalizes them, placing control under the department of Health and Human Resources.

Or if that is too much, then the FDA just regulates the drug companies so much that they have to be subsidized to continue to exist, much like General Motors. Another approach would be to tax them to the point of oblivion, so that the total number of companies shrinks to one or two, that then become a kind of regulated utility.

All of the above have been done, in such countries as Fascist Italy, Peronist Argentina, and other places. These methods work quite well at controlling the market, and control of health care means control of the population in a number of ways.

Again, go see what IPAB is and how it will function, paying particular attention to its relationship with Congress.

Anonymous Anonymous November 07, 2012 11:03 PM  

Apologies for multiple postings. Not my intent to spam. Browser got into a confused state. Delete duplicates, please.

PS: No URL is acceptable to Blogger on the Name/URL form.

Borderline Anonymous

Anonymous wheredowegofromhere November 08, 2012 12:48 AM  

@Caedryn

So the question is, What the fuck do i do now? - Caedryn

I am not the most eloquent of writers, so I will (try) to make this quick.

Why would you decide to put your lfie on hold, working long horus at low pay, having to do so not because real market conditions demand it but rather because a breathtaking amount of government corruption brought it about? In a real free market the long hours/low wage horrors that Don Reynolds (correctly) described would not exist. The government and big corporations engineered the conditions and working culture that we have today. One might think that you are taking the higher road by working yourself into the ground for a meager pittance, but by working like a slave all you are accomplishing is supporting an incredibly corrupt system and perpetuating the enslavement of the productive to the parasites. It is far better to go John Galt and opt out and even take benefits yourself rather than submit like a whipped slave to the syste and keep working to keep the welfare checks flowing to those who will not.

I see two (viable) chocies ahead of you There may be no jobs in Ohio, but as CunningDove brought up this is not the case everywhere. You can either take one of those difficult oil fields jobs, which while they are hard work they sometimes pay quite well (unlike being enslaved in the manner that Don Reynolds correctly pointed out would happen if you work in the family business), or you can opt out of supporting a corrupt system with your tax dollars, and take one of the easier type of jobs that Cunning Dove mentioned (like serving in a restaurant) and live a more minimalist lifestyle. There is something to be said for enjoying the decline and embracing a minimalist approach to life – putting you life on hold for a job (especially when it was precipitated by artificially engineered product of government and corporate corruption) is living death – what the hell is the point to work and work so you can just get up and do the same again and again...especially if an increasing amount of the proceeds goes to pay for the lazy parasitic hordes? You don't need to live like that! A little flexibility and ingenuity can go a long way toward avoiding a life of either corporate slavery or slavery to a family business being kept down by the corporate/government complex.

I am not a great (or even good) writer so I think at this point that it would be best if I would refer you to Captain Capitalism 's posts on minimalism and the hopelessly corrupt employment market facing us today. They do a much better job of it than I could. Definitely check it out!

http://captaincapitalism.blogspot.com/search?q=minimalism

Good luck and God bless – it's

Anonymous Morris November 08, 2012 1:11 AM  

Borderline Anonymous, I was having a few issues with commenting on blogs using Blogger, and in the end found out was related to cookies, having to even accept third party cookies.

Blogger giantslor November 08, 2012 4:39 AM  

Stand at an empty grave and shoot yourself, racist idiot.

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