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Friday, January 25, 2013

The UK and the "triple-dip"

Forget the "double-dip".  Now we're expected to believe that a "triple-dip" recession is nigh:
Economists believe the chances of such a scenario are high, given that there has been no let up in the pressure on consumers and businesses and snow disruption threatens to cost the economy an estimated £500 million a day.

There is no official definition of a triple dip, but it is widely accepted to mean that the economy has fallen into recession three times without returning to a period of robust growth in between. The UK plunged into a double dip recession last year, contracting for three quarters in a row before bouncing back with growth of 0.9% in the three months to September.

According to the Office for National Statistics, there has not been a triple dip recession since its records began in 1955, with Britain last suffering such economic gloom in the Great Depression. 
There is no triple-dip recession.  There was no double-dip recession.  This is, as I have been saying since 2008, the Great Depression 2.0.  It is larger in scope than its predecessor and it is gradually revealing the concrete shortcomings of the reported economics statistics.

It is also interesting how we don't hear much about the ongoing "economic recovery" in the USA anymore even though the GDP numbers are still nominally positive.

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98 Comments:

Anonymous Luke January 25, 2013 3:34 AM  

Only vaguely related, but interesting:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/01/25/business/as-graduates-rise-in-china-office-jobs-fail-to-keep-up.html?pagewanted=3

"Not surprisingly, they [his parents] have urged Mr. Wang [recent college graduate in China] to take one of the many factory jobs available. “You can get paid 4,000 renminbi [$635] a month for taking such work, but I wouldn’t do it,” Mr. Wang said. “Your hands are dirty, you’re all dirty. It’s not for me.”

He has worked brief stints. After a nearly yearlong stretch out of work, he took a job several months ago as an office building security guard. It pays just $320 a month — but he already is thinking of quitting after Chinese New Year celebrations next month, and dedicating himself full time once again to the search for an office job that would allow him to use his degree. Entry-level positions in his field pay only $240 a month, but the work is clean and safe and there is the prospect of promotion. Even better would be to find a municipal agency willing to hire him, he said.

“The best is a government job; you have job security and a retirement fund,” Mr. Wang said.

Mr. Wang counts himself fortunate to have a girlfriend. She has tried to sell Amway cosmetics to her friends, but in her best month only earned $160, and often earns nothing at all in a month. Her apartment costs 1,200 renminbi, about $190, a month, and she is also subsidized by her parents — her father is a salesman for construction materials while her mother is a nanny.

“My girlfriend says, ‘What you’re earning now is definitely not enough for marriage, you need at least 10,000 renminbi a month, 26,000 would be good,’ so I’m under extreme stress right now,” Mr. Wang said. “All the women are like that now — they want the car, they want the apartment, they want the appliances — of course, I always say yes to my girlfriend.”

Young college graduates like Mr. Wang do not want factory jobs even though companies increasingly offer blue-collar workers the kinds of benefits that many white-collar workers could not aspire to until recently."

Anonymous VryeDenker January 25, 2013 4:08 AM  

I don't know what someone's problem is with blue-collar work that pays well. You get to stay reasonably fit, your mind is kept active,
chicks find your manly look attractive and your son thinks you're cool. You also have less stress (note that I am not saying no stress, just less)
and you'll always have a job if you're skilled.

I've mentioned before that I wouldn't mind being a maintenence electrician as opposed to a pure computer programmer (developer in newspeak) and I stand by it.

Anonymous Outlaw X January 25, 2013 4:46 AM  

and I stand by it.

Me as well, the happiest person I know is my brother who farms and has his own tractor mechanic shop that I designed and help him build. My happiest times were working with him plowing planting welding and mechanic work. We had a lot of fun while doing it too.

Anonymous zen0 January 25, 2013 4:49 AM  

As Murray Rothbard pointed out somewhere, the commonly held (but scary) reference term "depression" was replaced by the simply annoying "recession", because as we all know, economy is merely an expression of psychology, not mathematics.

Anonymous Johnny Ping Pong January 25, 2013 4:53 AM  

Remember "green shoots"? That was awesome.

Blogger bethyada January 25, 2013 5:04 AM  

It is damped simple harmonic dipping.

If the recession coefficient is low enough the dips could go on for decades!

Anonymous Outlaw X January 25, 2013 5:21 AM  

Vox I heard AJ saying that Violent crime is dropping dramatically and that burglary and petty crime is increasing dramatically. Is this economy and the fact that Obama is the best gun salesman ever? I don't know the answer. He didn't explain why he said it, just threw it out there.

Anonymous DT January 25, 2013 5:43 AM  

...and snow disruption threatens to cost the economy an estimated £500 million a day.

I'm sorry, but that's just not possible. Ten years ago James Hansen and Al Gore told us that all scientists agreed man was warming the Earth, and that we were at a "tipping point" past which there would be no recovery.

The UK should be free of ice and snow, and polar bears should be drowning in a nearly ice free Arctic ocean by now. Somebody please inform The Guardian of their error. And let the government know they can count on that 500 million a day.

Anonymous DT January 25, 2013 5:44 AM  

Remember "green shoots"?

What is that? A biodegradable bullet?

Anonymous Salt January 25, 2013 6:25 AM  

Get far away from USA...its collapse will be messy- Jeff Berwick

Anonymous scoobius dubious January 25, 2013 6:49 AM  

"Not surprisingly, they [his parents] have urged Mr. Wang [recent college graduate in China] to take one of the many factory jobs available. “You can get paid 4,000 renminbi [$635] a month for taking such work, but I wouldn’t do it,” Mr. Wang said. “Your hands are dirty, you’re all dirty. It’s not for me.”

I wonder who the Chinese Bruce Springsteen is... or is gonna be.

Anonymous scoobius dubious January 25, 2013 7:04 AM  

"This is, as I have been saying since 2008, the Great Depression 2.0."

I'd call it something with an even wider scope than that. I think of it as the Global Cthulhu Economy, as in "In their house in R'lyeh the great economies lie dreaming."

Each of the great global economies --USA, China, EU, Japan-- is living in their own particular fantasy-land: USA believes it can still be a consumer society while making nothing, it believes in the insane delusion that diversity is strength, it thinks it can live off debt, it refuses to acknowledge the galactic-sized economic and social drags and deadweight losses brought on by a refusal to admit race realism, it thinks YKW, now that they've been given unprecedented power, will somehow use their power to act in the American interest; it refuses to admit that Obama and the Dems are waging a low-key race war against white America, historically the source of all the country's strength and human capital.

China fantasizes among other things that it can sustain its economy on absurd levels of perpetual growth, and that it can be an export-driven economy when it is taking all the world's money, leaving no one else with anything left to consume their exports with; EU refuses to believe in its demographic and cultural collapse, it thinks it can just leave its treasure and its women lying around un-guarded and nobody will show up to steal them, it thinks that a new generation of hostile layabout Muslims on the dole will somehow become European and work rooolly hard to fund the fat retirment packages of Brussels bureaucrats; it thinks that the wealth and power of Europe stem not from the fact that it is (or once was) full of Europeans, and that if Europe is filled with Yemenis and Sudanese instead of Europeans it will still be as wealthy as Europe, when in fact it will become Yemen and Sudan.

The Japanese, to their credit, have remained Japanese, and so they will awaken from R'lyeh eventually. Russia is noticeably clear-eyed about certain things, but they still need to come to grips with others.

The global economic crisis is, at a substructural level, caused by the fact that the major systems of ordering humanity are out of balance both with one another and with respect to themselves. Until the ruling classes of these societies either come to grips with actual non-official reality or else are replaced (here at home, I'm rooting for option B), there will be no proper equilibrium, and things will continue to at least fail to improve, if they don't get worse.

Blogger IM2L844 January 25, 2013 7:04 AM  

I wonder who the Chinese Bruce Springsteen is... or is gonna be.

He's been around for a long time.

Beijing Bruce

Anonymous Outlaw X January 25, 2013 7:08 AM  

"Get far away from USA...its collapse will be messy- Jeff Berwick"

I am staying and will never leave. I was born here and will sty here and the usurpers will have to deal with us. This is the last vestige of freedom and no one will take that away. We are to big and to strong to ever be defeated by the central banks. I know my history.

Blogger IM2L844 January 25, 2013 7:14 AM  

it refuses to admit that Obama and the Dems are waging a low-key race war against white America, historically the source of all the country's strength and human capital.

I don't expect it to become readily apparent to anyone until mid 2015 when the economic cascade from the Obamacare debacle will really start to have an effect.

Anonymous scoobius dubious January 25, 2013 7:17 AM  

OT, so I apologize, but I had a question for Stickwick, who is I believe the resident atrophysicist.

The nearest star system to Earth is I believe several light-years away, but I would think that closer to the center of a galaxy, where stars are clustered, solar systems would be a lot closer together.

So, given two solar systems both with roughly equal mass to our own (the Sun plus planets), how close could two similar-sized systems come to one another, before they began to cause serious gravitational perturbations in the other's system? Is there an equilibrium? Could the outer perimeters of the two systems come as close as, say, the distance between Uranus and Neptune without crashing into each other? At the center of a galaxy, do larger solar systems absorb and destroy systems with less total mass?

Anonymous scoobius dubious January 25, 2013 7:19 AM  

"when the economic cascade from the Obamacare debacle will really start to have an effect."

When Obama gets his amnesty for mooching mestizos, and they become new-minted citizens eligible for Obamacare, I wonder if anybody in the press will ask him whether they factored in 30 million extra Latinos to insure, when they crunched the numbers.

Oh, who am I kidding. Then I woke up -- and my legs were broken, and my pillow was gone!

Anonymous Outlaw X January 25, 2013 7:20 AM  

There is nothing more dangerous who believes an is not afraid to die. The liberals fear death because they don't believe. Listen Salt, time to buck up and tell them to go to Hell, where they belong. There will be no Stalinist figure even though the banks fund them. We will kick their ass.

Anonymous DrTorch January 25, 2013 7:30 AM  

It is also interesting how we don't hear much about the ongoing "economic recovery" in the USA anymore even though the GDP numbers are still nominally positive.

Sorry, but we do. Just yesterday the numbers for new unemployment claims were released, and were the lowest in 5 years. Several lead paragraphs were devoted to explaining how this was a good sign that the fragile economy was still improving.

Housing prices are allegedly up throughout the country. (They currently are way up in the DC area, I can attest to that). Again, this is offered as proof the economy is improving.

The meme persists, although it may be that there are fewer news stories that they can attach it to.

Anonymous Outlaw X January 25, 2013 7:37 AM  

Vox knows about the economy, specialize in the economy of Ideas. It is the liberal that cries rascist riright while they put abortion clinics on the corners of black neighborhoods. Now white liberals like to kill their own children, but they are more interested in killing black babies. The Liberal will lose by killing their own so they open the borders to replace their dead children.

This may sound sickening, but liberals are psychopaths and sick people.

Right to choose is the right to kill. The reasoning is they hate the "poor ignorant" and the unwanted. That i/s the real economy of souls something I know about and don't understand half of what Vox says about the economy of men. My weakness.

Anonymous Luke January 25, 2013 7:53 AM  

Did no one else catch that the lead interviewee's girlfriend believed that a man was not marriageable unless he earned at least 2.5x (better 6.5x) as much money as a factory worker made? That's a rather severe case of hypergamy.

Blogger Nate January 25, 2013 7:56 AM  

VD
I was looking back at 2004 and 2005... and it seems none of us expected them to be able to keep interest rates down this long. Everything I do tells me debt yield should be back up around 5% sometime in 2015... but the same things told me it should've already been there.

Do you expect to see a 4% or 5% yield (that's the historical average) on federal debt anytime soon.

Anonymous JartStar January 25, 2013 8:22 AM  

Nate they can't raise interest rates without an economic disaster. We are now Japan.

Blogger Nate January 25, 2013 8:36 AM  

"Nate they can't raise interest rates without an economic disaster. We are now Japan."

Right.. but keeping rates this low for this long in this crappy lending environment should cause the very economic disaster they are trying to avoid.

What happens when you have a treasury auction... and no one shows up?

Anonymous Salt January 25, 2013 8:36 AM  

Nate they can't raise interest rates without an economic disaster. We are now Japan.

I think I'm turning Japanese
I think I'm turning Japanese
I really think so...

Blogger Nate January 25, 2013 8:40 AM  

Salt... The Kinks.

Well played sir.

Anonymous scoobius dubious January 25, 2013 8:42 AM  

The future's so bright, I gotta wear shades.

Except, it's those shades from "They Live"...

Blogger Kentucky Packrat January 25, 2013 8:42 AM  

The Japanese, to their credit, have remained Japanese, and so they will awaken from R'lyeh eventually.

All 10 of them. The Japanese are so far below replacement rate that they will have trouble sustaining a viable economy unless they turn it around in a reasonable timeframe.

Russia is noticeably clear-eyed about certain things, but they still need to come to grips with others.

The Russians aren't much better off than the Japanese. The only ethic groups above replacement rate are the ones you were just ranting about earlier.

Blogger Nate January 25, 2013 8:54 AM  

The Japs just had a nuke disaster. how long before some giant lizard crawls out of the ocean to battle the giant butterfly in the streets of tokyo?

Blogger Nate January 25, 2013 8:55 AM  

And don't even get me started on the giant turtle with space jet thrusters for feet.

Blogger Nate January 25, 2013 8:55 AM  

...

And any second now Agent Asher is going to show up to point out that Mothra wasn't actually a butterfly...

Blogger Kentucky Packrat January 25, 2013 8:55 AM  

What happens when you have a treasury auction... and no one shows up?

At one time recently, the Fed was buying 68+% of the issued treasury paper. In the short term, the Fed could go to 100% and there's not a lot that the general population can do.

Now, if the Treasury note gets downgraded (sparking a sell-off in funds), or the external market tanks on its own, that's when the Fed gets pinched. If the Fed allows the market to drop, they lose money. If they support the market, then they're flooding the market with cash and they devalue the dollar.

They've got a lot of room to maneuver, but eventually they have to yield. It's just that they can stay irrational a lot longer than most of us can stay solvent.

Blogger Nate January 25, 2013 9:02 AM  

"At one time recently, the Fed was buying 68+% of the issued treasury paper. In the short term, the Fed could go to 100% and there's not a lot that the general population can do."

Granted. But that is flat out inflation... and it devalues the holdings that other nations are keeping on reserve. They aren't going to indefinitely take those losses.. and a big sell off by just a few of them (assuming its the right few) means hyper-inflation.

Anonymous scoobius dubious January 25, 2013 9:12 AM  

"The Japanese are so far below replacement rate that they will have trouble sustaining a viable economy unless they turn it around in a reasonable timeframe."

A viable economy? Are you serious? We are talking about the Japanese, my friend. Right now they have a world class economy, and even if it drops ten notches they won't care, so long as they get to remain Japanese. During the whole Tokugawa sealed time-capsule period they had a sort of feudal economy in a modern world, and it didn't bother them a jot. The only reason they upgraded during Meiji was their (accurate) perception that unless they didn't keep up to pace with the times, they would get swept over and would have to forfeit being Japanese.

They will do fine. Five hundred years from now, when all North America is a giant swarming hellhole of stinking illiterate black-mestizo favelas, and white people are just a baffling half-memory spoken of in myths as the magical space people who built the giant buildings they no longer understand, the Japanese will still be living in their islands, speaking Japanese and being Japanese, even if they no longer have space-age techno sex-robots. But I suspect they will.

Keep in mind: the population of Japan is now circa 130 million people, virtually zero immigrants. True the TFR is in the toilet, but recall that only 70-80 years ago, back when they were the terrors of half the globe, their population was only about half that. The Japanese can afford to shed a lot of demographic weight and still retain control of their islands, their culture, their language, and their manner of being. Not so for stupid YKW-programmed Americans, who are well on track to lose everything. And I mean EVERYTHING.

"the ones you were just ranting about earlier."

Oh, I never rant, m'boy, I just talk truth in a rather sharp tone. I may be a little pungent for your rarefied tastes; but trust me, when I actually "rant"... you'll know it.




Blogger Kentucky Packrat January 25, 2013 9:16 AM  

Granted. But that is flat out inflation... and it devalues the holdings that other nations are keeping on reserve. They aren't going to indefinitely take those losses.. and a big sell off by just a few of them (assuming its the right few) means hyper-inflation.

Absolutely, and IMHO it's a hammer and anvil situation. Either the Fed quits buying Treasuries, and the market crashes, or they keep buying and they inflate.

They've just kept the balls in the air much longer than I expected already. At this point, dates are useless, because everyone involved has every incentive to keep supporting the Treasury and the Fed well past the "makes sense" date. One day, someone will miss a juggle, and three months later every genius will be trying to document that they knew it was happening right then.

Look at Greece. They should be using their treasury paper for TP and kindling, but the bonds are still being propped up. And it's just Greece.

Blogger Nate January 25, 2013 9:19 AM  

"Look at Greece. They should be using their treasury paper for TP and kindling, but the bonds are still being propped up. And it's just Greece."

Well... its not just Greece... its the derivatives that get exchanged if Greece doesn't get propped up.

Anonymous Salt January 25, 2013 9:21 AM  

A viable economy? Are you serious? We are talking about the Japanese, my friend. Right now they have a world class economy, and even if it drops ten notches they won't care, so long as they get to remain Japanese.

I see some truth there. The Japanese have suffered their lost decades admirably. Admittedly the Greeks have other problems, but they're hardly telling the EU to get stuffed and just be Greeks.

Blogger Nate January 25, 2013 9:22 AM  

But there are winners AND losers in the derivatives game... so all it takes is one of the winners to start demanding that the losers admit the game is over and pay up.

Then... I'm guessing the guns come out.

Blogger Nate January 25, 2013 9:29 AM  

"A viable economy? Are you serious? We are talking about the Japanese, my friend. Right now they have a world class economy, and even if it drops ten notches they won't care, so long as they get to remain Japanese."

So obviously Scoobs is unfamiliar with the phrase "The Lost Decade"

Anonymous Salt January 25, 2013 9:36 AM  

@Nate January 25, 2013 9:29 AM

But the point of what Scoob is saying is that when it all finally washes out, the Japanese will still be Japanese. Will the Greeks be Greeks? Americans be Americans? Will the Italians retain their cultural heritage?

The Japanese don't care a whit about their lost decade(s). They prefer being Japanese.

Anonymous JartStar January 25, 2013 9:38 AM  

Kentucky speaks the truth, the Fed will have to continue to buy indefinitely at this point. They will ride this horse until the end. The problem is nobody knows when that end will come and what it will look like.

Will the US order false flag operations in foreign countries to incite a war which will benefit us economically? Will Europe collapse first? Japan? China?

Anonymous scoobius dubious January 25, 2013 9:38 AM  

"So obviously Scoobs is unfamiliar with the phrase "The Lost Decade"

Oh I am quite familiar with the phrase. But you seem unfamiliar with the word "kokutai".

Blogger Nate January 25, 2013 10:01 AM  

"The Japanese don't care a whit about their lost decade(s). They prefer being Japanese."

They will indeed still be japanese.

They'll be broke... but yes.. they'll be japanese.

Anonymous Stilicho January 25, 2013 10:02 AM  

Granted. But that is flat out inflation... and it devalues the holdings that other nations are keeping on reserve. They aren't going to indefinitely take those losses.. and a big sell off by just a few of them (assuming its the right few) means hyper-inflation.

That is the 100 trillion dollar question isn't it? I ask you this, what percentage of new Treasuries is the Fed currently buying? Although some (China) are moving their reserves from Treasuries to various hard assets, no one has taken the Nestea Plunge and dumped all of their treasuries, probably out of a fear of spooking the market and taking a bath. The Fed is trying to boil the frog slowly enough that it won't jump out of the pot while China (and other frogs) are swimming to the edge and planning their jump.

Blogger Positive Dennis January 25, 2013 10:12 AM  

I think the option Vox mentions in Return of a Greta stagflation is the most likely outcome.

Blogger Nate January 25, 2013 10:13 AM  

"kokutai"? I mean I grasp the term as much as westerner that has never been there before can. Like I said... they'll still be japanese. But that doesn't change math.

Math says.. they'll be broke. Will they come back from it? Yep. eventually. Will the US? Not in this form. No way.

Anonymous A Visitor January 25, 2013 10:23 AM  

Vox,

I forget (having only taken one economics class in high school that covered this), what is the economic definition of a depression? Is it three consecutive quarters with -12-15+% growth? Considering you're one of the few to have correctly predicted the start in '08, I don't doubt you're right, again.

Anonymous scoobius dubious January 25, 2013 10:25 AM  

"they'll be broke. Will they come back from it? Yep. eventually. Will the US? Not in this form. No way."

Alors, nous sommes d'accord. "In this form" is what I care about. Or rather, best case scenario, in the form of say 50 years ago, but of course those cattle have long fled the barn. We're talking comparatives here. If my neighbors are Haji and Bhaji, or Taco and Chaco, rather than Bob and Sue, then America is already over and done with, and we're just discussing the funeral arrangements. But over in Nihon, Keiji's neighbors are still Jun and Hanako. These days they might have to bury Uncle Seiji in a plain pine box instead of the cedar casket they were accustomed to, but at least they know there won't be empty cans of Tecate all over the grave and it won't smell like monkey-urine, next time they go to visit it.

Wakarimasu-ka?



Anonymous Anonymous January 25, 2013 10:29 AM  

The system needs a jubilee, a forgiveness of unpayable debt. The Japanese aren't the only ones with lost decades. Huge amounts of unproductive and wasteful debt are crushing the economies of the world. It should be written off to free up productive resources. If you loaned money to someone who can never repay you, then that is the risk you take for the interest. Loans are an investment and simetimes investments do not pay off. The bad debta, incurred by prior generations and politicians, has leveraged the present and future. The world is bankrupt, so let's have an orderly bankruptcy.

Anonymous Porky? January 25, 2013 10:29 AM  

?? All I heard on the news yesterday was how freaking great the recovery is going, how few people applied for unemployment, how high the Dow was going, how people's 401k's are exploding with cash.



Blogger Nate January 25, 2013 10:31 AM  

" "In this form" is what I care about. Or rather, best case scenario, in the form of say 50 years ago, but of course those cattle have long fled the barn."

Never gonna happen mate. Balkinization. That's what we'll see. No way around it. But there will be pockets of 1950s america. For example... down here in Southern Alabama... even the mexican resturaunt has white serving staff. Alabama's immigration law simply scared them all away. Oh certainly there are a handful here and there... but I literally go weeks without seeing a mexican. You know... like 1950s america.

Anonymous Alexander January 25, 2013 10:35 AM  

Unless you're willing to recognize that such a jubilee would require, at minimum, the complete scrapping of all entitlement programs and the disenfranchisement of most of the population, then it's not worth even bringing to the table.

Can't see the suits in DC and their millions of dependents going for it.

Anonymous Josh January 25, 2013 10:51 AM  

But Nate, all the blacks are going to kill all the whites down in Alabama!

Anonymous JartStar January 25, 2013 10:54 AM  

how high the Dow was going, how people's 401k's are exploding with cash.

Equities should continue to go up this year thanks to the Fed's policies. At the current rate valuations could be an issue come 2014-2015 (bubble) if the ZIRP continues to punish savers and force people to take risk to get a return.

That being said the last 10 years have produced a nice 7.95% return on a balanced portfolio of VHGEX (50%), VIPSX (25%), VBTLX(25%) without re-balancing. If one had gold and REIT in the mix for further diversification you'd even do better.

This is why I'm still a fan of maximum diversification as the best defense against an uncertain economic future.

Anonymous bw January 25, 2013 11:12 AM  

no one has taken the Nestea Plunge and dumped all of their treasuries, probably out of a fear of spooking the market...Fed is trying to boil the frog slowly enough...

Exactly. As Catherine Austin Fitts has noted for years, that is what the US military is doing/for. Enforcing the USD/FRN and the slow burn.

Anonymous bw January 25, 2013 11:20 AM  

is merely an expression of psychology, not mathematics Zeno

+1

Anonymous Tad January 25, 2013 11:46 AM  

@Vox Day

It is also interesting how we don't hear much about the ongoing "economic recovery" in the USA anymore even though the GDP numbers are still nominally positive.

Just because you don't read it, doesn't mean it doesn't exist. You need to read more widely. There is LOTS of talk of economic recovery. Why do you think Conservatives in the U.S. are so nervous about their political prospects. When you base an entire platform on the notion that it can never happen under a current administration, you get nervous when it does.

Just like Conservatives in the U.S. denying the obvious....

Anonymous Mr. Nightstick January 25, 2013 12:21 PM  

I still the all the vacancy signs in the acres and acres of business parks I work by. There is no economic recovery in my area.

Anonymous JI January 25, 2013 12:24 PM  

It's not a depression, Vox, it's just that every day is a "dip". So no biggie.

Anonymous Gen. Kong January 25, 2013 12:25 PM  

VD: It is also interesting how we don't hear much about the ongoing "economic recovery" in the USA anymore even though the GDP numbers are still nominally positive.

I can only attribute this remark to not actually being here in the Banksta Banana Republick, similar to your prediction of a Mittens win last fall. The "ongoing recovery" is mentioned multiple times a day by the Ministry of Truth through its numerous outlets. The idiocracy naturally believes it because 'it must be true if it's on the teeeveee'. According to "brilliant" NPR anaylists, Nobel prize winners, etc. - D'Won Mocha Messiah caused money to fall from the heavens because the she-god was so happy her magic negro was installed. The rabbit people cannot consume the kool-aid flavored 'recycled' pellets fast enough. The parasites and looters are getting quite rich, so of course the economy is doing wonderfully. Lloyd 'Doin' Godz Work' appears to have a permanent smirk.

Anonymous JartStar January 25, 2013 12:38 PM  

There is LOTS of talk of economic recovery. Why do you think Conservatives in the U.S. are so nervous about their political prospects.

I can't believe I'm agreeing with Tad again, but they are talking about the recovery. Albeit the talk is about a very modest GDP gain and the jobs are too slow coming back, but they are talking about it.

I don’t agree that the GOP staked their entire platform on Obama’s inability to fix the economy, but a foundational belief of it they are currently fighting for is the idea that raising taxes hurts the economy. If the Democrats and Obama manage to enact significant tax increases over this next year and there is a recovery it will hurt the GOP for decades. This ideological battle is ultimately what the debt ceiling fight is all about.

The other ideological battle being fought is if people will accept equality of outcome over liberty. This one is far from being decided, but Obama is very, very good at speaking to his base and minorities seem to accept the premise. If 2/3rds of white voters accept it then another massive political change will take place in the country over the next 15-20 years.

Anonymous Azimus January 25, 2013 1:01 PM  

VD:
This is, as I have been saying since 2008, the Great Depression 2.0. It is larger in scope than its predecessor and it is gradually revealing the concrete shortcomings of the reported economics statistics.


From an Austrian perspective, was the problem of Great Depression 1.0 an abundance of debt? Would that make World War 2 nothing more than a massive, unbelievably violent, bankruptcy filing (we forgive your debt, you become part of our empire)?

Anonymous Azimus January 25, 2013 1:10 PM  

and snow disruption threatens to cost the economy an estimated £500 million a day.

This can't be anything but pure, unthinking propaganda. So I buy more natural gas to heat my home if it is cold. I lose out on say an extra $50, but the gas utility, gas "miners" (I am talking totally out of my competence, but my meaning is the folks who harvest the gas and bring it to market) get extra money, and so forth. It is a zero-sum game, same as plow drivers overtime, truck wear, snowblower gas, etc., etc., etc. You could make the argument that it results in disproportionate concentrations of wealth in select areas, but to say it costs an economy anything is complete hooey, especially by Keynes' yardstick. Am I missing something?

Anonymous Porky? January 25, 2013 1:22 PM  

If the Democrats and Obama manage to enact significant tax increases over this next year and there is a recovery it will hurt the GOP for decades.

Do you mean the GOP that just supported significant tax increases with almost no reduction in spending?

Or the GOP who always support raising the debt limit?

Or the GOP who spend money like fat whores at Hometown Buffet?

Or the GOP that supports illegal immigration?

Or the GOP who actively fights against conservative candidates for office?

Or the GOP who think progressives like Mitt Romney and John McCain are just awesome?

Or the GOP that thought that we needed a Department of Homeland Security and the Patriot Act?

Or the GOP who supported TARP and the GM bailout?

Or the GOP that wants to balance the budget in, you know, like a couple of decades from now?

Or the GOP that supported the trillion dollar Omnibus Bill?

Or the GOP that voted for the 700 Billion dollar National Defense Act authorizing indefinite detention?

Or the GOP that voted against repealing the above indefinite detention clause?



Please forgive my confusion. Which GOP were you saying might be hurt?

And why should anyone give a shit?

Anonymous mcain train January 25, 2013 1:31 PM  

Damn Porky, I mean, if you're going to look at it that way.

Anonymous Mitt Romnibus January 25, 2013 1:37 PM  

But...but...freedom...children....America!.....jobs..........Health care...I mean... hehe... NOT health care for everybody....just Massachusetts..... ummm..... I love cars....

Anonymous John Boehnhead January 25, 2013 2:01 PM  

How unpatriotic of you, Porky. We HAVE to raise the debt limit or we might not get reelected. Then where will you be with a bunch democrats in power raising the debt limit every 3 months?

Anonymous Mitch McConman January 25, 2013 2:04 PM  

I am shocked. Shocked, I tell you, at Porky's un-American rhetoric. If we hadn't spent ourselves into oblivion something really, really bad might have happened.

Anonymous Thales January 25, 2013 2:04 PM  

Exactly. As Catherine Austin Fitts has noted for years, that is what the US military is doing/for. Enforcing the USD/FRN and the slow burn.

The entire zombie economy is predicated on FRN hegemony, which entails the military kind. All choice as been taken away -- you can either watch your savings be eaten away by inflation ("Braaaaiiinnnzzz...") or shamble "Forward!" with the rest of the horde until it all implodes.

Anonymous 11B January 25, 2013 2:08 PM  

Why do you think Conservatives in the U.S. are so nervous about their political prospects.

Because you and your tribe are succeeding in the population replacement of the electorate.

Anonymous JartStar January 25, 2013 2:12 PM  

@Porky?

Regardless of the GOP's actual behavior, a politically powerful argument they have made since Reagan is that taxes hurt the economy. If this argument is lost to them then they can't even lie about what they want to do. I don't care about the future of the GOP beyond curiosity as I gave up on them after 2000.

The destruction of the GOP starting with Dubya has been fascinating to watch and one of their last big fiscal arguments is about to be taken away from them.

Anonymous Paul Ryan January 25, 2013 2:18 PM  

I resent the implication that I am not a free market conservative. I only beg for government intervention when it's necessary to free the market from government intervention.

Anonymous Thales January 25, 2013 2:21 PM  

Also, of course they're going to raise taxes -- how else can they possibly get all this Monopoly money out of the system? Uncle Ben has to throw $85 Billion a month in perpetuity to keep the horde shambling along because the market tanks every time he pauses to grab another handful of cash from the back of the helecopter.

Anonymous Tad January 25, 2013 2:21 PM  

@11b?

Because you and your tribe are succeeding in the population replacement of the electorate.

I'm not a member of any tribe of native americans.

Anonymous 11B January 25, 2013 2:26 PM  

I'm not a member of any tribe of native americans.

I thought you said you were part of the Tribe in a prior post.

Anonymous Porky January 25, 2013 2:37 PM  

Regardless of the GOP's actual behavior, a politically powerful argument they have made since Reagan is that taxes hurt the economy. If this argument is lost to them then they can't even lie about what they want to do. I don't care about the future of the GOP beyond curiosity as I gave up on them after 2000.

Problem is, it's a bogus argument to begin with. Taxes don't hurt the economy. If that is what you consider to be the last great conservative argument then they are truly finished.

Anonymous Porky January 25, 2013 2:40 PM  

Sorry, last great GOP argument.

Anonymous Van January 25, 2013 2:59 PM  

There's about a century of data from all industrialized economies showing that governments taking more than about seven percent of GDP hinders economic growth.

Anonymous Tad January 25, 2013 3:14 PM  

@11b

I thought you said you were part of the Tribe in a prior post.

huh?

Anonymous Porky January 25, 2013 3:36 PM  

@Van

Please. Some of the most prosperous countries take nearly 50%. Ya think there might be other factors in play...?

Anonymous Van January 25, 2013 3:57 PM  

Taxation interferes w/ growth, it doesn't necessarily ruin an economy; at least not for many years - an economy can chug along, and even experience (lower) growth when over 40% of GDP is taken by the government. But, of course, there are other factors. Norway's oil boom is fueling growth despite high taxation. And a heavily taxed white or Asian society will outperform a lightly taxed black or latino society year after year.

Overall, these higher tax countries are beginning to feel the pinch. Just because a few of them haven't (yet) doesn't disprove the observable connection.

Anonymous Porky January 25, 2013 4:10 PM  

And a recent study (Hungerford 2012) showed no correlation at all between top tax rates and growth.

Like I said - Ya think there might be other factors in play?

"Taxes hurt growth" is a crappy argument. Revenues remain fairly stable regardless of tax rates.

Anonymous Van January 25, 2013 4:30 PM  

Tax rates don't necessarily correlate to revenues because (1) changes in rates change economic activity, and (2) changes in rates are often accompanied by changes in deductions and exemptions.

a study only looking at top tax rates doesn't tell us much, now does it? What about other rates, what share of GDP is being taken? As top tax rates change, what else is happening to the tax code? What percentage of the population is paying the toop rate, and is this constant when tthe top rate is changed? (In the US, the answer is no, not even close).

And, are we comparing tax rates to economic growth or government revenue?

Anonymous Porky January 25, 2013 5:12 PM  

Like I said - other factors, other factors, other factors.

The overly simplistic GOP argument is easy to beat because there are endless scenarios, including historical examples, where growth increased despite increased tax rates.

Anonymous FrankNorman January 25, 2013 5:28 PM  

Tad January 25, 2013 3:14 PM

@11b

I thought you said you were part of the Tribe in a prior post.

huh?


I think he means that you said you were Jewish.

Anonymous E. PERLINE January 25, 2013 5:41 PM  

This blog about the "triple dip" recession really being the "great" recession was excellently well written and it stimulated a lot of fascinating commentary. Thank you.

Anonymous Van January 25, 2013 5:44 PM  

Of course there are other factors, but that doesn't eliminate taxes as a factor. And since it's one we have control over, it's one we should attempt to control.

Anonymous Porky January 25, 2013 6:36 PM  

As JartStar already said, if the economy grows over the next four years despite increased taxes the GOP loses the argument. Arguing that growth might have been larger with lower taxes is no more convincing than the argument that things would have been worse without TARP.

Anonymous Anonymous January 25, 2013 6:57 PM  

"This is, as I have been saying since 2008, the Great Depression 2.0.  It is larger in scope than its predecessor and it is gradually revealing the concrete shortcomings of the reported economics statistics."

The situation is analogous to the Soviet economy. Hemingway has written the script: we will go broke gradually, then all at once.

The US dollar will be diminished to the status of the Russian ruble and five decades of economic expansion will be exposed as a Potempkin village fraud.

MALTHUS

Anonymous Van January 25, 2013 6:59 PM  

I would have to agree with that. The argument could be a political loser, even if it's true.

Anonymous Porky January 25, 2013 7:44 PM  

That's the thing. It may be true in some certain circumstances and not true in other circumstances.

OpenID simplytimothy January 25, 2013 7:57 PM  

@Porky

Supply Side econ argues that the point on the Laffer Curve which produces maximum revenues is determined politically--i.e. the people are sometimes willing to pay higher rates for the greater good.


Stupid Republicans (hello Rush Limbaugh) have made the mistake of saying that "tax cuts always work." That is a lie or abject stupidity. In Limbaugh's case, I suspect the latter.


That said, let it burn.

Anonymous Tad January 25, 2013 8:28 PM  

@Frank


I think he means that you said you were Jewish.


Really? That's funny!!

Anonymous Van January 25, 2013 8:40 PM  

The ideal taxation level for consistent economic growth is about 7% of GDP - this is where you're maintaining law and order, and providing the basic infrastructure that individuals can't provide alone. Above 7%, and you see a slow decline in average annual growth - but you still see growth. The same studies that find the 7% ideal, also see acceptable (to the uneducated public) levels of growth when governments take around 40% of GDP.

And wouldn't you know it, modern Western governments typically take about this much (for the US, all levels of government combined) They take as much as they can while making the people think it's for their own good. Most people have no idea that the government is not causing economic growth, but supressing it.

Extra! Extra! Two men argue via internet for four hours. Discover they actually agree. Amazing event has never happened, unlikely to happen again.

Anonymous Thales January 26, 2013 10:39 AM  

Just yesterday the numbers for new unemployment claims were released, and were the lowest in 5 years.

Except that they weren't the lowest in 5 years. Problem is that so much economic reporting is just outright lies.

Further, the ongoing jobless recovery of 2-3% GDP growth has been around for the past couple of years. The market loves gridlock because that's the only way to get stability at this point. If the GOP can continue to play goalie to the worst of Obama's agenda for the next four years, they deserve the credit for the recovery.

Blogger WarriorClass January 26, 2013 5:35 PM  

The bigger problem is that half the country has no idea of natual law, or the governing philosphy of the greatest thinkers of our age, or what it means to be an American. This ignorance can be attributed to two problems:

1. Forced government schooling. This is nothing but a tool of the power hungery to keep the population ignorant and indoctrinated in believing in the "expert" ruling class that they must obey.

2. The Immigration Reform Act of 1965. If you can't get the population to accept a ruling class, change the population. The massive influx of socialist brainwashed Eurotrash and third world bottom feeders who know nothing but totalitarian rule, come here for economic advantage, but tend to try and remake their new land in the image of their homeland. Close to half of the population of the US is here as a result of that Act, and that doesn't include illegal aliens. This combined with the "work" and "student" visas makes natural born Americans a displaced minority in their own land, with many of the best job and educational opportunities taken by foriegners.

This was by design, people. The intent is to get rid of freedom loving Americans, and they are well on their way.

The question is now, what will us Americans do about it? Hopfully the same thing our ancestors did - fight and win. My fellow Americans, steel yourselves and set your minds to the fact that you will have to fight to get your country back. This is not a battle you will win at the ballot box; you are going to have to kill your ememies and expel those not killed off of our shores.

Anonymous Anonymous January 27, 2013 9:00 AM  

Salt/25Jan2013 6:25 AM,


The post-collapse re-alignment of the remains of the former USA will indeed be quite messy with the major losers being being Jews, blacks, Leftist 'whites', females of all kinds, homosexuals, & many of the indigenous tribes who've foolishly lost the will to provide for themselves. A great many 'whites' of the 'moderate' suburbanite type along with lefty upscale blacks will also suffer great losses as the former have generally bought into much of the Left's (& 'reasonable' Right's) Oprah-esque communitarian drivel of "everybody wants the same thing for themselves & their families/talking things out is ALWAYS better than fighting" which when the system falls down/goes boom will get them killed, the latter will find themselves even more vulnerable than the 'nice' suburbanites as they're hated by their own for being rich/"deserting their people" while largely retaining the pathological hatred of 'whites' that's now become endemic in the vast majority of the bleck cumyoonehteh.

When 'your own' detest you for imitating 'whitey' & your barely concealed hostility toward those you imitate (as well as everyone else not of your financial/social/educational, & especially racial group) has eliminated them as allies, you're toast. A variation of that also applies to Judaic/'Goy' relationship, but in that case the knowledge of the former's dislike of the latter's much more widespread & thus infinitely more problematic. Bad Moon Rising for evahboddy in the above with not much chance for survival all around.

That being said & excluding interference from Russia &/or the ChiComms, I expect the western (eastern WA/OR/CA-the eastern slope of the Rockies, northern US/Canadian border south to US/Mexico border), central (bottom of the eastern slope of the Rockies-OK/MO border, from the US/Canadian border south to the OK/TX border), & southern (i.e., the old CSA) regions to emerge as their own countries in a loose semi-confederation of mutual economic/defense interests. Wouldn't surprise me too much to see the Northwest split off in alliance with British Columbia, & one maybe 2 of the Prairie provinces going with the aforementioned western states or one each going western & central. Rough for quite awhile for everyone, but those entities IMO can make it where the coastal/Great Lakes urban centers will be charnel houses.

The Prot Irish will be annihilated if they can't bounce over to Gwayt Bwittin for sanctuary & even then it'll be iffy as the English will still revile them as Paddys, likewise the Welsh & Scots who'll likely declare independence from the rapidly disintegrating U.K. As bad as it'll be in the former USA what'll happen in Britain & Europe will make our war of separation seem tame by comparison as Americans have the requisite civilian/military firepower to settle things rather quickly without devolving into dictatorship, in GB & Europe the mil holds the cards & where they go the populace has to follow lest they be killed outright or starved into submission. But then that's the typically historic pattern over there, isn't it. GB/Europe's Muslims will be slaughtered en masse for their sins of pride & xenophobia, but I do expect quite a lot of England's Indians to make it thru the purge as they've (from what I understand) been the most assimilated socially. Most Muslims here will likely follow the fate of their Euro co-religionists for the same reason, the Indians I'm not sure about.

Lotta Grimness will be intimate with everyone & nobody's gonna like her technique one whit.


Cassandra (of Troy)

Anonymous Anonymous January 27, 2013 9:35 AM  

scoobius dubious/25Jan2013 7:04 AM,


Without the US, Japan/Okinawa, SoKor, & Taiwan will be swallowed by the ChiComms if China stays together long enough, & given Ivan's increasing population decline (part of which is due to the karmic effect of Leftist inspired feminism) & the increasing military might of its Chinese neighbor along with the growing threat of the Islamic psychos on its southern border (who are supplied by China) Russia will have severe probs to deal with & just might do so using atomic pyrotechnics since that's pretty much all they have as a credible threat.

If The Fall is as widespread as is being predicted, the aforementioned 'Asian Tigers' are gone for sure because they, like Europe, have depended on the US to keep the Chinese & Russian boogeymen away from their doors which allowed them to spend on 'social improvement' & suicidally neglect defense.

And Israel, without direct Divine Intervention to prevent it, will be consumed despite her nukes just like Nippon/SoKor/Taiwan because the Muslims like the ChiComms can take the hit & still win.


Cassandra (of Troy)

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