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Wednesday, February 06, 2013

A Turkish Arabian war

Lt. Col. Joel Rayburn sees a more widespread war on its way in the Middle East:
We can envision, then, a sectarian war raging across the whole of the Fertile Crescent, drawing in all the former territories of Turkish Arabia. The prospect will be a frightening one for the region’s major powers. Both Turkey and Saudi Arabia could one day find chaos rather than functioning states on their permeable borders. If Al Qaeda/Nusrah can establish a base in Jordan, Saudi Arabia will find itself threatened by Al Qaeda franchises on both north and south that will be well-positioned to resume the pursuit of Al Qaeda’s core goal of toppling the Saudi monarchy and “liberating” the holy cities of Mecca and Medina.

The Saudis showed great resiliency in defeating a serious Al Qaeda insurrection in 2004-2008, but that was a strictly internal threat that lacked a real foreign base. Simultaneous Al Qaeda bases in Jordan and Yemen would pose a more serious, if not an existential, threat to Saudi rule. If watching the fall or near-fall of half a dozen regimes in the Arab Spring has taught us anything, it should be that the Arab states that appeared serenely stable to outsiders for the past half century were more brittle than we have understood. The implosion of Turkish Arabia would test those regimes to the limit, and we cannot assume that the rulers of Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait would be any better equipped to defeat the potential challenge than Muammar Qaddhafi and Bashar al-Assad were.

The rulers of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Iran are surely not blind to this nightmare scenario. As the situation in Turkish Arabia continues to unravel, those regional powers will be compelled to become ever deeper involved in an attempt to keep the tide of war from breaking on their own lands. This conflict could very well touch us all, perhaps becoming an engine of jihad that spews forth attackers bent on bombing western embassies and cities or disrupting Persian Gulf oil markets long before the fire burns out.

And what of Turkish Arabia in the long run? One eminent scholar of the Middle East assures me that the borders drawn by the British and French were artificial, yes, but now have staying power. The people of the region are too used to the lines to erase them, even if they don’t love them. I don’t doubt him, and I am sure that whatever else happens, there will continue to be a Syria, a Lebanon, a Jordan, and an Iraq. But those countries are about to pass through a crucible, a painful test in which their peoples will be sorted by sect; driven from traditional homelands; starved, taxed, or pressed into service by warlords; terrorized by militant Islamists; forced to witness their ancient heritage destroyed by bombs; and live without the rule of law. It will be terrible to watch, and we will not be left unsullied in our watching.
 If it weren't for the oil of the Middle East, this would be a solution, not a problem.  As it stands, I can't help but wonder if the potentates of the EU are praying for just such a distraction, as it would allow them the freedom to aggressively address their own Muslim problem.  The principle of Distract, Divide, and Conquer would indicate that once the war got started, there would be no coherent force supporting the Muslims of Europe, who for all their press make up less than 5 percent of the European population.

I tend to doubt that the atheists in Brussels, Paris, and Berlin are any fonder of Muslims than they are of Christians and the ideological and demographic forces of Islam are already much more troubling to the godless potentates in the various capitals than the weak and toothless version of Christianity that is perhaps best exemplified by the ex-Archbishop of Canterbury.  The grandees may be afraid of conflict with the Ummah now, but that fear will likely vanish should war erupt throughout the House of Submission.

And Israel would certainly be delighted to see the Islamic world tearing itself apart; one tends to imagine it will do what it can to light whatever fuses might be on hand to help set its enemies at each others' throats.

Labels:

119 Comments:

Anonymous CS February 06, 2013 3:20 PM  

And then, how far of a stretch is it to imagine that the end result is the consolidation of Islam under a new Caliphate, surrounding Israel on all sides? Read about it in Ezekiel 38

Anonymous Josh February 06, 2013 3:20 PM  

And we get to buy weapons for everyone.

Woo!

Anonymous Alexander February 06, 2013 3:21 PM  

It's still a solution, though perhaps just one with a few short-term drawbacks. Even those though - letting the middle east explode and cutting off our supply of foreign oil should do much to give our own useful idiots a moment of pause on their choices on everything from immigration to domestic drilling. A teachable moment, as our president might say.

Anonymous Josh February 06, 2013 3:22 PM  

And then, how far of a stretch is it to imagine that the end result is the consolidation of Islam under a new Caliphate, surrounding Israel on all sides?

Because the Turks, Saudis, and Iranians really would like to stay in charge of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Iran.

And Israel will be fine...they have several hundred nukes...

Anonymous cheddarman February 06, 2013 3:25 PM  

I think Israel and the U.S. are making a mistake if they believe they will benefit from undermining existing governments in the Middle East.
We obviously had a hand in taking down Mubarak and Gadaffi, both whom were no great threat to Israel. Neither country had the ability to project military power beyond their borders. They were more or less contained.

If portions of the middle east become stateless entities, we will see the chaos that is currently Somalia take up residence there. It wont be good for anyone, and will lead to 4th generation warfare directed at the west.

Interesting times, indeed.

Anonymous cheddarman February 06, 2013 3:28 PM  

I have wondered what will happen over there when the U.S. and Europe stop giving these countries food aid. That will really stir the pot, and thin the herd.

sincerely

cheddarman

Anonymous Roundtine February 06, 2013 3:31 PM  

an all out war would flood europe with refugees. golden dawn would win the next election.

Anonymous stg58/Animal Mother February 06, 2013 3:36 PM  

This kind of Middle East political analysis is fascinating. We will be producing so much oil in the near future that we could absorb some OPEC related supply disruptions.

Can the Sunni and Shia stop fighting each other long enough to topple the last few governments there? Stay tuned!

Blogger Nate February 06, 2013 3:36 PM  

This is what things felt like before world war one. People all over the world were doing unrelated stupid things.

Blogger Shimshon February 06, 2013 3:43 PM  

Vox, how far would each of these so-called popular uprisings have gotten were it not for Western intervention? Western intervention has propped up governments for decades...until it switches sides...or makes you an enemy...or whatever. It seems more that Western backing has been withheld from the failed governments, along with new Western backing of assorted unknown and unsavory characters is what caused them to topple. I think a good question would be, why is the West switching sides, and why now?

Anonymous Roundtine February 06, 2013 3:44 PM  

Russia is well positioned to sit it out and profit.

Blogger Shimshon February 06, 2013 3:46 PM  

I think oil has its own dynamic that also plays a part. Even if the US doesn't actually trump Saudi Arabia, if production continues to increase like I've been reading (even if it declines sooner rather than later) its affect on national revenue is probably not insignificant, if not in Arabia, then certainly in comparison to other major producers. And who knows what the real Saudi production numbers are anyway? Oil is what buys off a very restless Saudi people (or several peoples, really). If the price declines significantly, or even the buying power declines, they're in deep shit.

Blogger Shimshon February 06, 2013 3:49 PM  

Is al Qaeda even real? It seems like such a damn convenient bogeyman. How much of the info on its various incarnations is NOT sourced from one or another government?

Anonymous JartStar February 06, 2013 3:56 PM  

The US will be energy independent, or close enough, in 10 years or less meaning we will start to care about the Middle East like we do Africa.

Anonymous Josh February 06, 2013 3:58 PM  

Well...you have all sorts of random Muslim terrorist groups calling themselves Al Qaeda...it's like the number one brand name in middle east terrorism right now...

Let's face it, which sounds more scary: Al Qaeda or Omar's Local Martyr Brigade?

And which draws more media attention?

Anonymous Alexander February 06, 2013 4:00 PM  

We'll know we've crossed the horizon when a group goes by the name "Mohammad Jihad".

Anonymous stg58/Animal Mother February 06, 2013 4:02 PM  

Are there rabbits in Saudi Arabia!

RABBIT TALK NOW! LINK!

MOAR!

Blogger Nate February 06, 2013 4:02 PM  

There is a giant clusterfutastrophe coming...

Blogger Tom February 06, 2013 4:07 PM  

Joel Richardson wrote an interesting book comparing Muslim eschatology and Christian eschatology.

The Muslim "good" guys that they predict will show up on the scene pretty clearly are the Christian bad guys.

There is even a fake Jesus that will "descend" from Heaven in Damascus and be the False Prophet who enforces the one world Muslim faith of the 12th Imam (read as final Antichrist/Beast).

And this is what they openly predict. It is frighteningly similar.

Anonymous MikeH February 06, 2013 4:08 PM  

I don't see how Israel benefits. What we had for a number of years was a cold war style peace. There was just enough tension to keep the populace happily funding the war machine to keep them safe but not enough for real fighting.

If Saudi and Jordan go to AQ what would the benefit be? More funding from USA? I'm sure there would be more money to be had but that would seem to bring REAL danger to the doorstep as the tradeoff. I can't see that as a real win as I believe that Israel could be taken with a Zerg style invasion of the unarmed masses by foot. There are not enough bullets or political will to kill everyone pulling down the fences.

Anonymous Stilicho February 06, 2013 4:09 PM  

And Israel would certainly be delighted to see the Islamic world tearing itself apart; one tends to imagine it will do what it can to light whatever fuses might be on hand to help set its enemies at each others' throats.

It is a two-edged sword for Israel: on one hand, this sort of divisive strife weakens its enemies. On the other, it provides many opportunities for each of those enemies to strike at Israel with the additional incentive of gaining support and allies by doing so. Israel can come out ahead if it uses such a conflict and attacks on Israel respectively as distraction from and an excuse for military operations that strengthen their own position.

Blogger Positive Dennis February 06, 2013 4:11 PM  

If Israel thinks it is to its advantage to stir this up they are sadly mistaken. The most likely outcome from this is a mushroom cloud where Tel Aviv used to be. The jihadists are just as clueless as the likely outcome is a mushroom cloud where Mecca used to be.

The US needs to get self sufficient in energy, if that means tariffs, so be it.

This scenario is one of the reasons I am considering immigration to the Russain federation.

Anonymous Josh February 06, 2013 4:16 PM  

My expectations are for the Israelis and the Americans to royally screw things up.

Anonymous JartStar February 06, 2013 4:17 PM  

There is a giant clusterfutastrophe coming...

Yes, there's something rumbling on the horizon but it's hard to say exactly what. Crash? International war? More civil wars? A stray nuke? One or more of the previous? That's why I doubt even Vox's economic predictions as there's a huge unknown lurkeing out there which is larger than in 2007.

Anonymous Porky February 06, 2013 4:22 PM  

Listen to a guy named Brian Suits. He does a podcast called Dark Secret Place. He's all over this story.

Anonymous Porky February 06, 2013 4:24 PM  

This is what things felt like before world war one.

I knew you were an old fart but...wow

Anonymous Mr. Nightstick February 06, 2013 4:31 PM  

"We don't know where and we don't know when but something bad is going to happen." -Donald Rumsfeld

Blogger James Dixon February 06, 2013 4:37 PM  

> I knew you were an old fart but...wow

Porky, it's called history. You might want to get acquainted with it. Knowing it keeps you from repeating other folk's stupid mistakes.

It doesn't prevent you from making your own, of course.

Anonymous CS February 06, 2013 4:48 PM  

Porky, it's called history. You might want to get acquainted with it. Knowing it keeps you from repeating other folk's stupid mistakes.

Knowing what happened will only get you so far. Knowing why it happened is the part most people miss.

Anonymous Josh February 06, 2013 4:49 PM  

Knowing is half the battle.

Anonymous Edjamacator February 06, 2013 4:53 PM  

Knowing is half the battle.

Duke? Is that you?

Anonymous Unending Improvement February 06, 2013 4:54 PM  

I disagree with the general direction of this. I do not see a series of Somalias. I see a continuation of the status quo.

Blogger Doom February 06, 2013 4:55 PM  

I just have my doubts. Hopes, but doubts. While it is possible, the pieces are there, lots of violent potential, I don't think Al Qaeda is up to it, nor the other revolutionary forces, all of which are funded by those powers. Sure, they have an interest, the viciousness to bite the hand that feeds them, intent, they just don't have the resources and what they have would dry up in days.

As for Israel, they won't be doing that. If they aren't doing it, they wouldn't start. Although... that means I think they are, and have been, doing that since before they became a state. They were born to this and usually are pretty good at keeping others focused on each other to avoid being the main attraction. If surrounded by starving wolves, cause a couple of them to bleed while defending well and backing up. Nature takes it's course and wolves are highly cannibalistic.

As for Israeli nukes though? Those are only good for two things, deterrent and death of the state and people revenge. If they get down to using their nukes it will mean they are lost, utterly destroyed, and just reaching out from the grave. I'm not sure it is in them. They struggle to even condemn, let alone kill, mass murdering jihadis.

Anonymous scoobius dubious February 06, 2013 5:02 PM  

Oh please, when we actually get to closing statements, who really gives a flying fuck what any of these Mid-East shit-monkeys do?

The real fact of the situation is, our entire relationship with them is based on our being overly polite and delicate about the fact that we have everything and they have nothing. Look at even the most recent evidence. We effortlessly rolled over the important assets of Iraq and Afghanistan in the space of a few weeks, and then spent years standing around getting our people blown up by primitive monkey-explosives, simply because we couldn't bring ourselves to do what actually needed to be done. Cue Nick Lowe singing "Cruel to be Kind".

If the West finally decided for some reason to find the cojones to employ the actual genuine ruthlessness of people who really know themselves to be at war with other people who are warring against them, then the entire Middle East would have its collective neck wrung like a fucking Thanksgiving turkey in the space of a week.

We know how to land men on the moon, land robots on Mars, and send recon spacecraft to the rings of Saturn. They know how to do al-Jaq al-Shitt. Oh wait, I forgot. They know how to march around in circles shouting dopey slogans and burning American flags, and we know how to put up with their horseshit.

One day, we will finally stop being polite. And then actual history will take place. But not before. All of this farting around is because we're just too god-damned nice.

Anonymous Porky February 06, 2013 5:05 PM  

@James Dixon

Blow me.

Anonymous scoobius dubious February 06, 2013 5:08 PM  

"This is what things felt like before world war one."

No, exactly wrong. The difference, you see, is that the countries who fought in world war one actually mattered.

If Jordan and Yemen and Syria and KSA disappeared tomorrow, who would give a flying fuck? I mean, except for all the caterers who would be hired to plan the celebration party.

Ask yourself: if all the Arabs, Turks, Persians, Muslims and Israelis disappeared tomorrow, would ANYBODY miss them?

Anyone? Bueller?



Blogger James Dixon February 06, 2013 5:08 PM  

> If the West finally decided for some reason to find the cojones to employ the actual genuine ruthlessness of people who really know themselves to be at war with other people...

We haven't done that since at least WWII, scoobius. What makes you think we're ever going to?

Anonymous 11B February 06, 2013 5:08 PM  

The US will be energy independent, or close enough, in 10 years or less meaning we will start to care about the Middle East like we do Africa.

If only that were true. I don't doubt the energy independent part, or at least not being dependent on ME oil. But if you think that the US will ignore the Middle East once we don't need its oil, then you haven't been paying too much attention into who runs this nation's foreign policy, especially in the the GOP. If you have any doubts, just watch the hearings for Chuck Hagel.

Blogger James Dixon February 06, 2013 5:12 PM  

> Blow me.

You might have better luck directing that at Tad, Porky.

Look, I wasn't trying to be rude, but it was a dumb comment, and it deserved an appropriate reply. Otherwise some folks might take it seriously.

> ...if all the Arabs, Turks, Persians, Muslims and Israelis disappeared tomorrow, would ANYBODY miss them?

Tad might miss some of his extended family. But perhaps not. We'd miss Sam's comments though.

Anonymous Josh February 06, 2013 5:15 PM  

Ask yourself: if all the Arabs, Turks, Persians, Muslims and Israelis disappeared tomorrow, would ANYBODY miss them?

Anyone? Bueller?


Lindsay Graham?

Anonymous Noah B. February 06, 2013 5:17 PM  

" ...if all the Arabs, Turks, Persians, Muslims and Israelis disappeared tomorrow, would ANYBODY miss them?"

Chris Rock would miss Massa Daddy Obama.

Anonymous JartStar February 06, 2013 5:27 PM  

Lest we forget the recent N. Korea video with the nuclear holocaust fantasy for the Imperialist Capitalist Swine America.

We were discussing at work what the US would do if they launched a nuke at us. It is questionable if it would even hit the target but I think the response the US response could be crazy. We haven't sent 90 divisions anywhere in a while...

Blogger Nate February 06, 2013 5:27 PM  

"No, exactly wrong. The difference, you see, is that the countries who fought in world war one actually mattered."

This is one small part of the world where people are doing stupid things that will lead to war.

In europe... other countries are doing stupid things that will lead to war.

In the americas... and in asia... there are still more countries doing stupid things that lead to war.

Which is exactly how it was before WW1.

And I would think you should look at the list of countries that were involved in WWI again. Methinks its longer than you remember.

Anonymous zen0 February 06, 2013 5:30 PM  

Shimshon said:
I think a good question would be, why is the West switching sides, and why now?

The US Commander in Chief takes his oath of office using a Koran. Do you think there might be a hint there?

Anonymous Pedro February 06, 2013 5:35 PM  

Allahu Akbar!

Anonymous Smash_The_ZOG February 06, 2013 5:36 PM  

Warmongerin' Jewses be warmongerin'. Once the followers of Semitic Islam tear their countries apart, Greater IsraHell will presumably arise. That said, the ZOG will plan many more rituals against Goyim before their so-called Tikkun Olam be complete.

Anonymous Porky February 06, 2013 5:42 PM  

James Dixon: Look, I wasn't trying to be rude, but it was a dumb comment, and it deserved an appropriate reply. Otherwise some folks might take it seriously.

One trait that I find to be ubiquitous among dim-witted slobbering fools like yourself is the propensity to assume that it is actually OTHER people that are extremely stupid. For instance, when I joke about Nate being old enough to remember the political climate of 1913 your first reaction is to completely miss the absurdity of the tongue in cheek comment and instead assume that Porky must be so stupid that he actually thinks Nate must be an internet-savvy gun-toting 115 year old. Not only that, but James expresses further concern that the rest of the Vox Popoli readers might be also so stupid as to believe that Nate must be the only supercentenarian living on the earth who can handle the kickback from a .357 magnum.

You reveal yourself to be little more than a self-absorbed mid-witted mouth-breathing blowhard. Since your mouth is already hanging open and glazed with drool, well.... figure it out.

Idiot.

Anonymous Sam Scott February 06, 2013 5:46 PM  

scoobius dubious,

Ask yourself: if all the Arabs, Turks, Persians, Muslims and Israelis disappeared tomorrow, would ANYBODY miss them?

You do know that there are a lot of Christians in those populations (except for Muslims) who are sometimes treated horribly in their countries, right? Shouldn't the Christians here care about them?

Tonight was the latest episode of "The Voice" in Israel. The breakout performance was by a twenty-year-old Christian Arab-Israeli:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63qr-IiOuL4&list=PLbnnJA2j1A54eeMoHRdbZ7hrItr-aGUYm

Things are more complicated than many people realize.

Anonymous Sam Scott February 06, 2013 5:47 PM  

zen0,

The US Commander in Chief takes his oath of office using a Koran. Do you think there might be a hint there?

Credible citation needed.

Anonymous Sam Scott February 06, 2013 5:50 PM  

Smash_The_ZOG,

Warmongerin' Jewses be warmongerin'. Once the followers of Semitic Islam tear their countries apart, Greater IsraHell will presumably arise. That said, the ZOG will plan many more rituals against Goyim before their so-called Tikkun Olam be complete.

Yes, because Israel wants chaos on all of its borders.

Seriously, 80% of Israelis just want to be left the hell alone and want to live their lives in peace.

Anonymous Josh February 06, 2013 5:53 PM  

Sam,

What are your thoughts on solving the Israeli Palestinian conflict?

What policies would have the best chance if succeeding?

Anonymous zen0 February 06, 2013 5:54 PM  

More for Shimshon:

The administration of the US thinks the Muslim Brotherhood is moderate and will balance Al Qaida.


More on the connection between the Muslim Brotherhood and the Administration

The Muslim Brotherhood has origins in the Nazi movement. Obama reportedly told Hillary in regard to the Egyptian revolution, that fascist revolutions have more staying power because they are more organic.

All just a meaningless co-incidence, I'm sure.

Anonymous Anonymous February 06, 2013 5:57 PM  

When one considers the history of the Middle East one finds that it independent countries are really an aberration.

Almost from the dawn of recorded history we have the Babylonians, the Persians, the Romans, the Turks, and the British, just to name a few.

Name a time when they really governed themselves individually and successfully without outside pressure.

I have no clue why I can't seem to register here, but this is AaronInvestigates not trying to comment Anonymously.

Blogger James Dixon February 06, 2013 5:57 PM  

> One trait that I find to be ubiquitous among dim-witted slobbering fools like yourself is the propensity to assume that it is actually OTHER people that are extremely stupid.

OK, Porky, whatever you say. I'll try to remember not to bother explaining things to you in the future. And if I forget, I'm sure you'll remind me in your own inimitable fashion.

Blogger James Dixon February 06, 2013 6:00 PM  

> What are your thoughts on solving the Israeli Palestinian conflict?

Anyone who has actually looked at matter realizes that the only way to solve the Israeli Palestinian conflict is to remove one of the two groups.

I suspect that even most Israeli's realize this, but for rather obvious reasons, they don't want to do what needs to be done.

Anonymous Sam Scott February 06, 2013 6:01 PM  

Josh,

SCENARIO ONE

Well, in my opinion the best way to achieve peace would cause a lot of short-term pain but it would be the best chance to result in peace in a few decades.

1. All or most of the Arabs in the West Bank go to Jordan (the original Arab half of the Palestine region as proposed by the British) and become Jordanians. They would either be forcibly expelled or given monetary compensation for leaving voluntarily.

2. All or most of the Arabs in Gaza go to Egypt (same scenario as above), or perhaps Gaza formally becomes a full part of Egypt.

Israel then has a secure, Jewish majority with defensible borders. The Arabs will be full citizens of Jordan or Egypt, and they will no longer be "oppressed" by Israel.

In the short term, there will be chaos and condemnations of "ethnic cleansing" by Israel. But it will be forgotten in a few decades. Eventually, things will settle down and there will be a lot less conflict.

Of course, I write this knowing it will never happen. Jordan and Egypt would laugh in my face. Neither wants an influx of an impoverished, uneducated, and radical population. The Arabs have their own pecking order, and Palestinians are the lowest of the low.

I'll give my alternate scenario next.

Anonymous scoobius dubious February 06, 2013 6:02 PM  

Hi Sam Scott! Welcome back!

"Things are more complicated than many people realize."

Oh, sure, of course they are, I know it, I'm not an idjit.

I was Exaggerating To Make A Point. That's usually all I'm doing when I say something that sounds heated.

Look, I'll let you in on a little secret: I don't hate anybody, and I don't wish anybody harm. I'm a Christian, I'm not allowed to.

The fact is, though, that in America we live behind something like a rhetorical Berlin Wall. There isn't an accurate account of reality being given in our public discourse, because there are too many taboos. And then we go and make policy based on an inaccurate account, and that leads to disaster. There are a lot of different ways to combat this ill influence, and many are more refined than the sort of brawling Swiftian tone I sometimes indulge in, but ya gotta start somewhere. "Savage indignation" isn't everything, but it has its purposes. Remember what Yeats said about Swift: "He / Served human liberty."

You've probably read The Phantom Tollbooth but in case you haven't, look up the part where Milo has to smuggle a single noise out of the Valley of Sound.

Anonymous Sam Scott February 06, 2013 6:04 PM  

Anonymous,

When one considers the history of the Middle East one finds that it independent countries are really an aberration.

Almost from the dawn of recorded history we have the Babylonians, the Persians, the Romans, the Turks, and the British, just to name a few.


This is true. The idea of the civil nation-state is a nineteenth-century European invention (for better or worse). Here in the Middle East, a region has usually been run by a king, tribe, empire, or whatnot. There isn't a centuries-old tradition of civil society anywhere. And a people can't transition easily and quickly.

Anonymous Sam Scott February 06, 2013 6:06 PM  

[Corrected for bad HTML]

You do know that there are a lot of Christians in those populations (except for Muslims) who are sometimes treated horribly in their countries, right? Shouldn't the Christians here care about them?

Tonight was the latest episode of "The Voice" in Israel. The breakout performance was by a twenty-year-old Christian Arab-Israeli woman:

<a href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=63qr-IiOuL4&list=PLbnnJA2j1A54eeMoHRdbZ7hrItr-aGUYm>The Voice</a>

Things are more complicated than many people realize.

Anonymous Sam Scott February 06, 2013 6:06 PM  

[Corrected for bad HTML]

You do know that there are a lot of Christians in those populations (except for Muslims) who are sometimes treated horribly in their countries, right? Shouldn't the Christians here care about them?

Tonight was the latest episode of "The Voice" in Israel. The breakout performance was by a twenty-year-old Christian Arab-Israeli woman:

The Voice

Things are more complicated than many people realize.

Anonymous Sam Scott February 06, 2013 6:07 PM  

Please feel free to cut the second-last post of mine above.

Anonymous Porky February 06, 2013 6:09 PM  

OK, Porky, whatever you say. I'll try to remember not to bother explaining things to you in the future.

Just can't stop making an ass of yourself can you, cretin?

Anonymous Sam Scott February 06, 2013 6:14 PM  

Josh,

SCENARIO TWO

Israel goes to the UN and gives a speech to the world:

1. We will agree to a two-state solution based on the 1967 armistice lines with land swamps to cover for our major settlements.

2. The Palestinians will have full sovereignty as a nation-state. Any Jews choosing to live there will become Jewish citizens of Palestine, and they will have full rights and freedoms as all other citizens.

3. Both Jews and Arabs will have free travel and access to Jerusalem as well as Jewish and Islamic holy sites in both countries.

4. Etc.

BUT, and this is the main point of the speech:

5. If Israel still faces terrorist or military attacks from the Palestinians state officially or terrorist groups among the Palestinian people a year from the creation of a Palestinian state, we will invade the state, annex of all the land, and expel all of the Arabs to Jordan and Egypt.

Then, the Israeli leader would end the speech with the line, "To the Palestinians, I say, 'You now have a state. Don't lose it. It is your choice now.'"

Anonymous scoobius dubious February 06, 2013 6:14 PM  

"Israel then has a secure, Jewish majority with defensible borders. The Arabs will be full citizens of Jordan or Egypt, and they will no longer be "oppressed" by Israel.

...Of course, I write this knowing it will never happen."

@ Sam Scott:

The major and enduring problem as I see it, is that Islamic theology views the lands which compose modern Israel as "waqf" and therefore they can never be surrendered, even if it was to strike a mutually beneficial bargain/alliance, which the people of the region would obviously do at once if they had a single lick of sense. Would you agree? Does that concept (waqf) enter into the calculus of Israeli strategic thinking?

Anonymous Sam Scott February 06, 2013 6:15 PM  

scoobius dubious,

Thanks!

You've probably read The Phantom Tollbooth but in case you haven't, look up the part where Milo has to smuggle a single noise out of the Valley of Sound.

Haven't read that since I was a kid -- will have to look it up again!

Anonymous sprach von Teufelshunden February 06, 2013 6:16 PM  

Three things:

1) War was averted back in September.

2) Weiss Research is banging the "war drums" of late. [at least they are sounding the "war alarm."]

Interesting, supposedly this all went into motion in September of last year as well:

On September 6, 2012 Russia and China quietly signed a Declaration of War on America. [1]

As we speak, China is mobilizing resources and gathering allies around the globe for its imminent "attack."

They have one sole purpose in mind ... to crush the economic, political and military strength of the U.S. around the globe by targeting America's greatest weakness.


Now, one does know what "imminent" means.

3) In talking about Turkey, one cannot forget Hillary in the mix:

New evidence has surfaced that U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton was taking orders from the Turkish Ambassador to Libya and simultaneously disregarding numerous requests by Ambassador Stevens for extra security regarding protecting the unregistered diplomatic CIA outpost in Benghazi, Libya. [2]

And, for a bonus, Hillary (with pictures)

Now the question of imminency arises. Two events are imminent. War with Russia and China, and the implementation of the bilateral tax agreement. [search "protocol update"] The two could certainly be simultaneously imminent. Wiess wishes to convince you that the former is a certainty. Barnewall will equally convince you of the latter.

Could these two events be related here? That is, one a reciprocation of the other? If one force is to soon inject the global economy with some $30 Trillion in funds, would not another side wish to start a war to avert it?



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[1] That is a serious charge to be made publicly by Weiss Research. Barnewall admits she, as a retired banking professional, uses Weiss' bank ratings in her current research.

[2] That would be Turkish Ambassador Ali Kemal Aydin. This is common knowledge, even within the MSM.

Anonymous zen0 February 06, 2013 6:19 PM  

AaronInvestigates said:

Almost from the dawn of recorded history we have the Babylonians, the Persians, the Romans, the Turks, and the British, just to name a few.

Actually, the time of the Empires began when Israel lost its commonwealth, and ended when the Ottoman Empire collapsed due to WWI.( All mentioned in the Book of Daniel.) So history was already well on its way.

Anonymous Sam Scott February 06, 2013 6:19 PM  

scoobius dubious,

The major and enduring problem as I see it, is that Islamic theology views the lands which compose modern Israel as "waqf" and therefore they can never be surrendered, even if it was to strike a mutually beneficial bargain/alliance, which the people of the region would obviously do at once if they had a single lick of sense. Would you agree? Does that concept (waqf) enter into the calculus of Israeli strategic thinking?

Well, I'm not an expert on Islamic theology. I understand the ideas of the House of Islam and House of War (I think) referring to two geographic parts of the world. But I don't know how mainstream, literal, and prevalent it is in all of the various schools and streams of Islamic thought.

But is surely an important part of Islamist thought, so I'm sure that the Israeli government takes it into account. But there's little they can do. Even if Israel knows that it will be an eternal war against those Muslims who are fanatical, it cannot just give up on peace with the rest of the world breathing down its back to find a way to make peace somehow. It's a difficult situation.

Anonymous zen0 February 06, 2013 7:03 PM  

I've been following Moshe Feiglin of Manigut Yehudit for years. I think he/they have a lot of the right answers, plus he is an Observant Jew Libertarian.

Until the Jews get their collective inner King David going, they will be beset by confusion and harassed by the surrounding pagan tribes.

Even the queers are more adamant about their right to exist where they stand than the average Israeli.

Anonymous zen0 February 06, 2013 7:11 PM  

Sam Scott said: Even if Israel knows that it will be an eternal war against those Muslims who are fanatical, it cannot just give up on peace with the rest of the world breathing down its back to find a way to make peace somehow. It's a difficult situation.

Have you ever wondered why the world is not breathing down the neck of the Muslims to find a way to make peace?

Anonymous Jason February 06, 2013 7:29 PM  

I wonder if the instability of the MiddleEast described here makes it that much more imperative that the West not allow any proliferation of nuclear weapons there - for example, in Iran, which if they were to go nuclear would perhaps lead to a kind of domino effect with Saudi Arabia and perhaps another Arab nation (or Turkey) at least attempting to get nukes as well. As bad as the region is or will become, it can probably be contained or managed (albeit at a high cost), but if a state there goes nuclear then it seems all bets are off. In other words, there are risks to Western intervention that we are all familiar with, but can they compare with the danger of, say, Saudia Arabia first developing a nuke, and then later an overthrow of the monarchy there, to be replaced by an Al Qaeda or Al Qaeda-like regime which has no scruples whatsover concerning nuclear blackmail?

Blogger James Dixon February 06, 2013 7:56 PM  

> Just can't stop making an ass of yourself can you, cretin?

Like I said, you own inimitable fashion.

Blogger James Dixon February 06, 2013 7:59 PM  

> I wonder if the instability of the MiddleEast described here makes it that much more imperative that the West not allow any proliferation of nuclear weapons there...

Jason, I hate to break this too you, but that genie is out of the bottle, and it's not going back in. There's no way we can stop any nation from getting nukes if they really want them.

Anonymous jack February 06, 2013 8:02 PM  

Just an observation: I'm surprised that porky has not been banned yet for being a total butt. Porky; there is no reason not to be polite. Here, on this blog, say, as opposed to something like the whatever blog, we usually pride ourselves in civil discourse. Civil discourse [you can look the term up] has emphasis on the 'civil' as in civilized. Not usually an difficult concept to understand; sometimes difficult for some to put into practice.

Now, it should be interesting to see what names porky calls me...

Blogger James Dixon February 06, 2013 8:17 PM  

> Porky; there is no reason not to be polite.

Oh, I have no problem with Porky not being polite. My comment wasn't as polite as it could have been.

But calling me stupid? That's deserving of the dismissive tone of my following comments.

Yeah, I can be as much of an idiot as anyone else on occasion. But only on occasion.

Anonymous Porky February 06, 2013 8:17 PM  

there is no reason not to be polite.

I agree. That's why James Dixon needed to be smacked down for his unsolicited and inappropriate insult.

Blogger James Dixon February 06, 2013 8:24 PM  

> ...for his unsolicited and inappropriate insult.

You made a dumb comment on an open forum, and you call a relatively measured response unsolicited? Good thing I responded instead of Nate then. You might have considered his response an act of war.

And if you can point out where I insulted you, rather than the comment, I'm sure others would appreciate it as much as I would.

Blogger Nate February 06, 2013 8:25 PM  

Porky... James... you two wanna go get a room and a can of crisco? Some alone will probably help ease the tension here.

Blogger Nate February 06, 2013 8:31 PM  

James... for the record... porky was just takin' a good natured shot at me. I don't think anyone here actually believes I'm 110 years old.

Porky... settle down. its the internet. there is no sarcarsm font. There is no tone of voice for folks to read.

good. now lets get back to complaining about the fact... THAT THERE HAS NOT BEEN A RABBIT UPDATE IN LIKE 10 HOURS.

Anonymous Lex Rex February 06, 2013 8:42 PM  

MOAR RABBIT...

Blogger Nate February 06, 2013 8:43 PM  

what lex said.

Anonymous Porky? February 06, 2013 8:55 PM  

You made a dumb comment on an open forum, and you call a relatively measured response unsolicited?

Let's review - I made a tongue in cheek comment about Nate being about 115 years old and you actually thought I was serious. And yet you insist that I am the dumb one.

Good thing I responded instead of Nate then. You might have considered his response an act of war.

Unlike you, Nate has a logical brain and a sense of humor.

Porky... James... you two wanna go get a room and a can of crisco?

I'm sure James' slow brain is conjuring up images of fried chicken at this very moment.

Blogger James Dixon February 06, 2013 9:06 PM  

> I made a tongue in cheek comment about Nate being about 115 years old...

Not obviously, no. But I'm willing to take your word for it. That doesn't change my opinion on it being a dumb comment.

> And yet you insist that I am the dumb one.

I said the comment was dumb, not you. But if you can't get that point, I might have to reconsider.

I haven't insulted you Porky. You can't honestly say the same.

Anonymous Porky February 06, 2013 9:10 PM  

Whatever, dude. Go heat up the Crisco while I pluck the chickens.

Anonymous zen0 February 06, 2013 9:13 PM  

This is why there will be no peace in the Mid-East.

Blogger James Dixon February 06, 2013 9:20 PM  

> Whatever, dude. Go heat up the Crisco while I pluck the chickens.

Well, that's it. I refuse to engage any further with a chicken plucker. :)

> This is why there will be no peace in the Mid-East.

A pretty valid comparison, yes.

Blogger Nate February 06, 2013 9:24 PM  

If there was a sarcasm font on the internet... Iran and Israel would have no problems.

Anonymous Josh February 06, 2013 9:26 PM  

Sam,

Thanks for sharing both of those scenarios.

I take it that you would be opposed to Israel annexing Gaza and the West Bank and inviting the Palestinians there to either become Israeli citizens or leave?

Anonymous 11B February 06, 2013 9:30 PM  

So getting back to the topic of a war in this region, how do people feel?

1) Oh no we cannot have any war, it would be terrible.

2) I am more concerned with next spring's NFL draft.

3) Go for it.

Blogger Nate February 06, 2013 9:33 PM  

4) This is just one small part of the build up of what will become a World War... and not the biggest part.

Anonymous Mr. Pea February 06, 2013 9:36 PM  

One way or another, the Gap must be brought into the Core. They will keep fanning the flames until that happens... or we are all dead.

Anonymous zen0 February 06, 2013 9:46 PM  

or we are all dead.

Gotta die of somethin'.

Anonymous Mr. Pea February 06, 2013 10:23 PM  

Gotta die of somethin'.

Old age would be nice... but I'm not counting on it.

Oh well, some people are just intent on worshiping the Beast.

Blogger James Dixon February 06, 2013 10:25 PM  

> or the record... porky was just takin' a good natured shot at me.

I knew that was a possibility, Nate. I'm not quite as dumb as Porky thinks. But, IMO, the comment was so inane that it deserved my sarcastic response even if that was the case.

Anonymous ZhukovG February 06, 2013 10:37 PM  

I wonder how badly Russia wants to hang on to that glorified coaling station they have on the Syrian coast? Big ships like the Kirov class Battle Cruisers or the Adm. Kusnetsov can't dock there, but they may consider it a point of pride.

Anonymous Porky February 06, 2013 10:39 PM  

Give it a rest, Crisco boy.

Anonymous kh123 February 06, 2013 10:47 PM  

Just saw some footage of the street fighting going on in Damascus in passing. Not an expert, but the tanks State troops were driving look Russian. What's more, they moved and shot in a fairly coordinated manner on a tight street.

Anonymous The other skeptic February 06, 2013 11:06 PM  

Not an expert, but the tanks State troops were driving look Russian.

Well, the Russians have been selling lots of hardware to the Syrians.

Blogger JDC February 06, 2013 11:11 PM  

Off topic - J. Stewart was spot on re the drone program tonight - hope Vox comments. Imminent threat ≠ inescapable. Imminent = however we f****n decide to define it as.

Anonymous 11B February 06, 2013 11:20 PM  

I wonder how badly Russia wants to hang on to that glorified coaling station they have on the Syrian coast? Big ships like the Kirov class Battle Cruisers or the Adm. Kusnetsov can't dock there, but they may consider it a point of pride.

It's not the glorified coaling station that they are worried about. Russia is worried about the fate of Christians in Syria. The Russian Orthodox Church and Putin have expressed concern for Christians after what has happened to the Christian community in post-Saddam Iraq and post-Mubarak Egypt.

For those you who are in your twenties, the above might not strike you as odd. For those of us who actually lived during the Cold War, it is mind boggling that Russia, the formerly core of atheistic USSR, is now on the side of defending Christians, while supposedly Christian America seems to have little to no concern.

First, they took the side of muslims in Kosovo, then they let loose the muslim fury on the Christians of Iraq, and have done nothing to stop the persecution of the Copts of Egypt. I doubt the Christians of Syria can count on any support from Uncle Sam.

I guess you have to be a certain demographic to get Uncle Sam's undying devotion.

Anyway, I applaud Russia for trying to help. I doubt the new rulers of Syria will be any kinder to those Christians than the musselmen of Iraq and Egypt were to their Christians.

Anonymous bob k. mando February 06, 2013 11:34 PM  

OT, but an actual step forward rather than begging DC to *permit* us to exercise our rights, rather, it looks like Virginia might just damn well go right ahead and exercise it's rights:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/virginia-coin-moves-closer-to-reality/2013/02/05/9bcdd532-6fa4-11e2-ac36-3d8d9dcaa2e2_story.html?hpid=z4


VA and four other states moving towards their own coinage.

Anonymous Toby Temple February 07, 2013 12:01 AM  

Porky vs crisco-bo... I mean James Dixon is brought to you by the War of Rabbits production.

Please stay tune for the next Rabbit Updates.

Anonymous Toby Temple February 07, 2013 12:03 AM  

correction... War on Rabbits..

sheesh!!!

Anonymous The other skeptic February 07, 2013 12:04 AM  

Justice Dep't Enlists hate group in its war on citizens

Anonymous ZhukovG February 07, 2013 12:20 AM  

@11B

Yes, I was aware that the Russian Orthodox Church wanted Christians protected. I am also aware that Putin professes to be a Russian Orthodox Christian (and I really hope he is sincere).

However the logistics do not favour the Russians and I am concerned that there are powers in the West that despise the thought of a powerful, openly Christian nation rising up anywhere that might oppose their plans.

At best, and assuming a few thousand of the 30,000 Russian 'civilian contractors' are armed and combat trained, I think the Russians might be able to hold the coastal area as a refuge for Christians and moderate Moslems(Alawite).

I was in the US military during the last of the Cold War and I have watched with amazement, what has happened in Russia. To go from official Atheism to once again embracing the conept of the 'Third Rome' is quite a miracle.

Anonymous The other skeptic February 07, 2013 12:22 AM  

I was in the US military during the last of the Cold War and I have watched with amazement, what has happened in Russia. To go from official Atheism to once again embracing the conept of the 'Third Rome' is quite a miracle.

Not if all the oppressors moved to the US.

Anonymous Anonymous February 07, 2013 12:43 AM  

Knew a babe in college who was syrian-catholic-french. Her family never had a problem in Syria. The Alawites have quite a bit in common with the jews too.

- Al Leppo

Anonymous The other skeptic February 07, 2013 1:14 AM  

Heh, Jagged Edge from 1985 proves that the media understood that women were very emotional back then.

Anonymous Anonymous February 07, 2013 2:01 AM  

zen0

Thanks for your thoughts, but I seem to remember quite a few wars and conflicts occurring during and prior to the "Age of Empires". In addition, while Judea may have been a state, rarely was it completely independent as it depended on, and paid tribute to, it's larger neighbors.

I'm going to have to stay with what I said in the beginning.

Due to the history of the region, peace will only come when some larger outside power takes control and enforces such a peace. Needless to say, this will not be easy.

In terms of some of the other comments, there can never be a two state solutions where the Muslims are concerned.

As an aside, due to Obama's recent foreign policy disasters, war is much more likely.

Thanks....AA.

Anonymous Roundtine February 07, 2013 3:20 AM  

All eyes are focused on the Middle East. The financially inclined are looking to Cyprus, which involves Russia, Turkey and Greece.

Who is watching Asia? Almost every day in Beijing there is front page news concerning the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands. It is the main topic in Chinese news, like Iraq/Iran have been the past decade in America. China lit up a Japanese ship last week. Old Chinese generals remember Korea and do not want a shooting war. Younger commanders are itching to fight the Jap-scum and maybe American-devils too. The generals give the orders, but who has their finger on the trigger?

North Korea has advisers in Germany learning how to open the economy. China is blocking imports from Japan. Japan is detonating a currency bomb. South Korea is taking the fallout from Japan's currency moves. Everything is now in flux.

Anonymous TJ (formerly Todd, The Original Lurker) February 07, 2013 3:55 AM  

Almost every day in Beijing there is front page news concerning the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.

This is just a distraction in the same fashion as Argentina raising the Falkland Island dispute again to draw attention away from the financial woes.

My opinion is China is preparing for this as a distraction when they can no longer hide the effects of their over expanded manufacturing and all of the corruption.

Anonymous SKIP February 07, 2013 6:18 AM  

YAYYYYYY I can hardly wait for the collapse of Saudi and it's "royal" family, as disgusting a bunch of people as I have ever been around. Hope the Al Qaeda types kill all of them and the Yemenis HATE the Saudis as do the Iraqis and Persians (all are Persian as a matter of heritage) Those that the Al Qaeda types miss will of course bring their trillions and their thousands of family members with them to the US where they will continue to establish a muslim caliphate with the help of our own damned government and a black muslim president.

Anonymous SKIP February 07, 2013 6:29 AM  

As to peace in the Muddled East! never, EVER gonna happen unless a 5th Crusade is unleashed and it maintains it's integrity and mission to wipe our Medina and Mecca and all muslims as was the original mission of the 4th Crusade around 1204 or so. They got all caught up in fighting amongst themselves and so ravaged their respective armies that they could no longer consider further assaults on islam and that is why we have what we have now, that, and our own damned government importing tens of thousands of black muslims from the nastiest,most hostile countries on the planet and FORCING us American taxpayers to support and finance our own demise!!! WTF is going on in their heads, the muslim crocodile will just eat them a little later than the rest of us, but IT WILL EAT THEM TOO!

Blogger LP 999/Eliza February 07, 2013 6:33 AM  

Good luck Europe. Like America, the EU has seen the waste of trillions of dollars to even address the problem of failed diversity and the endless roaming of cultures that do not fit in with theirs. Neocon policies have not and never will solve themselves.

Sexy rabbit update? I don't want to know; http://vigilantcitizen.com/latestnews/major-hollywood-talent-agency-throws-a-sexual-alice-in-wonderland-themed-party-at-sundance-festival/

Blogger Nate February 07, 2013 10:27 AM  

"However the logistics do not favour the Russians and I am concerned that there are powers in the West that despise the thought of a powerful, openly Christian nation rising up anywhere that might oppose their plans."

Mate...

Right now... today... Russia is the most powerful nation in the world.

Anonymous bw February 07, 2013 12:48 PM  

Gladio

Blogger Jamie-R February 07, 2013 1:24 PM  

The problem for Arabia remains its own beliefs, once it goes all out. Europe is willing to meet that. And more. It's such a shame they want the warfare they want, but I understand it. God is not for them.

Anonymous ZhukovG February 07, 2013 2:33 PM  

@Nate

While I believe any nation, including the US, that tried to invade Russia is asking for a replay of Operation Bagration, I am less confident that Russia can project her power effectively in this case.

Believe me, I am definately in the Holy Mother Russia amen corner, but there are a lot variables that either complicate or simplify the situation depending on how they play out.

Anonymous JonnyBoy February 07, 2013 4:07 PM  

More rabbit pellets from the Manboob.

He calls Amazon:

"an aggressive multinational corporation aggressively pursuing a monopsony position in the market, with billions in yearly gross revenues."

An evil filty rich capitalist agressive multinational monopolist! Yet he allows them to sell his books!

Is this some sort of grok only rabbits can do?

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