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Saturday, February 16, 2013

Live by the consumer, die by the consumer

It is not looking good for Q1-2013:
Wal-Mart Stores Inc. had the worst sales start to a month in seven years as payroll-tax increases hit shoppers already battling a slow economy, according to internal e-mails obtained by Bloomberg News.

“In case you haven’t seen a sales report these days, February MTD sales are a total disaster,” Jerry Murray, Wal- Mart’s vice president of finance and logistics, said in a Feb. 12 e-mail to other executives, referring to month-to-date sales. “The worst start to a month I have seen in my ~7 years with the company.”

“Have you ever had one of those weeks where your best- prepared plans weren’t good enough to accomplish everything you set out to do?” Geiger asked in a Feb. 1 e-mail to executives. “Well, we just had one of those weeks here at Walmart U.S. Where are all the customers? And where’s their money?”
It sounds as if an awful lot of people just got the harsh wakeup of the Christmas-related credit bills combined with their tax and insurance hikes.  The "substitution" effect can only work so long before the consumer can't even afford Wal-Mart.  The problem with kicking the credit can instead of addressing the problem is that the can keeps getting bigger every time it is kicked down the road.

Iceland has already shown the way out.  Default.  The fact that the politicians and bankers so vigorously prefer attempting to inflate their way out demonstrates that they don't give a damn about the economy or the people, and that inflation in a sufficiently orderly manner is not always possible.

Sure, the government could borrow and spend $100 trillion tomorrow.  But the effect of that would be even worse than default.  So the Federal Reserve finds itself in between the Scylla of hyperinflation and the Charybdis of default, without an Odysseus at the helm.

"There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as a result of a voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved." 
- Ludwig von Mises

Labels:

89 Comments:

Anonymous Ignoramus February 16, 2013 5:19 AM  

Iceland has already shown the way out. Default. The fact that the politicians and bankers so vigorously prefer attempting to inflate their way out demonstrates that they don't give a damn about the economy or the people

Why do they want to keep inflating?

Anonymous zen0 February 16, 2013 5:46 AM  

Why do they want to keep inflating?

To appease Nate.

Blogger hadley February 16, 2013 6:19 AM  

The Jews had/have an answer to this, didn't they? It was black letter Jewish law that all debts and obligations default, all slaves freed, and all land returned to its owners every fifty years--the Jubilee year. It is a giant resetting of the clock to address the fact clear even in antiquity, that the bankers will ultimately own us all.

The problem with the Idea of Progress is that people see things we do now as "modern" and what we did back then as "old-fashioned". They figure we humans don't have original sin, that technology and law and education will make things all better because we are "smarter" now. Therefore they throw away ideas like the Jubilee year, because we have "outgrown it" when in fact it is needed now more than ever.

The Icelanders declared their Jubilee Year. Let us return to our roots, point to the failure of Progress, and declare our own.

Anonymous Gx1080 February 16, 2013 6:34 AM  

Inflation is basically a tax on the poor and middle class.

The rich can always hide their fortune on investment goods, that conserve their relative value.

The Iceland way requieres politicians that care more about the people than about the 1%. Good luck with that.

Blogger tz February 16, 2013 6:40 AM  

They will blame the crash on racism as it is will happen on our diversity president's watch.

Speaking of consumption, apparently there is a new form of tuberculosis resistant to all antibiotics.

Anonymous zen0 February 16, 2013 6:53 AM  

Inflation is basically a tax on the poor and middle class.

AND it is sold to the public as an inevitable consequence of commerce, not government policy.

As people are trained to expect inflation and plan accordingly, the Central Banks play the White Knight, bravely holding this evil of Capitalism at bay by keeping inflation "low and stable".

And relentless.

Anonymous Anonymous February 16, 2013 6:53 AM  

Data point for you. The Federal government is delaying the processing of tax returns and sending out tax refunds (often subsidies for single mothers and the earned income tax credits.) So people who rely on their yearly tax refunds are not getting the cash they rely on after the holidays. Essentially this is a preview of what is going to happen to Social Security and the side effects it might produce in the economy.

Anonymous Roundtine February 16, 2013 7:02 AM  

final and total catastrophe of the currency system

Good times!

new form of tuberculosis resistant to all antibiotics

Also many STDs are becoming resistant to all antibiotics. Don't have unprotected sex in San Francisco.

Anonymous Roundtine February 16, 2013 7:05 AM  

delaying the processing of tax returns and sending out tax refunds

This is why I'm collapsing my taxable income and paying as little as possible to avoid penalties. Some people like to overpay and get the refund, but it's really better to write that check in April if need be. Unless you want to see your interest free loans to Uncle Sam turn into a non-refundable , non-deductible gift.

Blogger Rantor February 16, 2013 7:16 AM  

Wal Mart can't keep ammo or guns in their stores around here, they just need to carry what sells! Will stop by this morning to help them out if they have any .40 or .223 in stock

Anonymous RC February 16, 2013 8:02 AM  

The Icelanders declared their Jubilee Year. Let us return to our roots, point to the failure of Progress, and declare our own." - hadley

Avoiding debt slavery by declining to have another person's debt foisted upon you isn't jubilee, just a smart self-defense move. Still, it's noteworthy given the incestual relationship between bankers and their government minions. It would be so very helpful to keep one's profits private and socialize one's losses.

Blogger LP 999/Eliza February 16, 2013 8:04 AM  

Good for WM when gas is $3.79 in some poor states like WV.

We were in for the hunting area. Stuff's sold out. We don't typically shop at WM. I was noticing the quality went downhill around the clothing area. In the pharma area prices are up for items no one usually buys.

Anonymous Cinco February 16, 2013 8:14 AM  

@Ignoramus

"Why do they want to keep inflating?"

Because those who get the newly printed money first, have more purchasing power than those of us who are at the end of the supply chain. Also, it's their only tool in the their toolbox.

Anonymous ChelmWiseman February 16, 2013 8:28 AM  

That Von Moshe was on smart Jew... eh Vox?

Anonymous Stilicho February 16, 2013 8:30 AM  

Ah, but inflation spreads the pain of default beyond the banks in the hope that it will save the over-leveraged banks at the expense of everyone else. The hope is that, if you can spread the pain wide enough and thin enough, the system will survive intact. The problem is, they are working with a static model that fails to account for the consequences of spreading the default pain and, in many cases, increasing it in the aggregate.

Anonymous Stilicho February 16, 2013 8:37 AM  

"Why do they want to keep inflating?"

Because those who get the newly printed money first, have more purchasing power than those of us who are at the end of the supply chain. Also, it's their only tool in the their toolbox.


Yep, and you people bear a remarkable resemblance to nails. You know what comes next.

Of course, you can pound nails through a board all day long, but it doesn't accomplish anything unless it is being nailed to another board.

Blogger Eric Mueller February 16, 2013 9:07 AM  

That tax increase was definitely felt. I got a slight pay raise, and yet my take home pay is still lower than it was in December at the old rate. On top of it, my wife wants me to adjust our deductions so she "feels" safer about our 2013 return. I've tried for 12 years, and I cannot get through to her that a tax refund is the worst thing for us financially.

I'm going to enjoy watching how many segments of the economy that were based around easy credit start collapsing.

Anonymous Roundtine February 16, 2013 9:10 AM  

Do a "deduction" into a savings account.

Anonymous Imatiger February 16, 2013 9:25 AM  

Well it's certainly not looking good for Walmart. On the other hand, we do have a super weak retail sales increase in January of .1%, and 28 straight months of non-farm payroll increases. I think the collapse will be more like a whoopee cushion getting smashed, as opposed to a meteorite blowing up and causing a massive shockwave.

Anonymous Goodbye cruel world February 16, 2013 9:37 AM  

"Over the weekend, Maker's Mark announced that it would reduce its alcohol volume in order to meet the demand for it. "

Anonymous The OASF February 16, 2013 9:46 AM  

Many of my colleagues have rushed to buy guns because they are afraid that Barry Sorbakkha will attempt to swipe them.

I've tried to tell them time and time again this is nonsense for three main reasons.

1. Guns are not drugs and booze and government pissing and moaning about guns and stupid Congressional resolutions are not prohibition. Guns are the essentials of the great CCP of modern society - Criminals. Christians. Patriots. They will not give them up. In a brilliant post here about a year ago - statistically and logistically it was shown that the Feddel Gubbermint does not have the resources, manpower and overall logistics to quell an unruly country like the United States. It's best trained and highest-tech cannot even control a few City blocks in downtown Bagdhad without getting half of themselves killed/wounded and bankrupting the Fed.

2. As Pat Buchanan said human nature will trump ideology. Men will not relinquish that which they consider to be an extension of their own right hand to protect their women and children... FEMA camps and the graveyard be damned.

3. How it relates to this post - again, the true danger is not Barry getting grabby with the guns... it is an economic collapse. It will be barbaric and brutal... a "Road Warrior Collapse" is highly accurate. Just take a look at society. Just like the movie... we already have the pierced, studded and painted-up vicious freaks lurching around every street corner of the Great White Zimbabwe. So just add in the guns and (I paraphrase expatriate sage Colonel Reed here)remove the Feddel Gubbermint's ability to "keep a lid on it" and you'll see America's post-modern version of the Alpha-Toecutter raping his way through a pacifist/gunless neighborhood near you.

Listen to the intro song lyrics of The Sopranos... Got yourself a gun!

Anonymous The OASF February 16, 2013 9:49 AM  

"I've tried to tell them time and time again this is nonsense for three main reasons."

The reasoning is nonsense not the acquisition of the guns... sorry, I should have clarified.

Anonymous stg58/Animal Mother February 16, 2013 10:07 AM  

Get yourself a FAl, sleep well at night.

Aim Surplus has paratrooper folding stock FN FAL's for 1900.00 in the 16" and 21" barrel lengths. Own the Right Arm of The Free World.

Blogger Galt-in-Da-Box February 16, 2013 10:07 AM  

Could the fact that Wal-Manaca/HouseOfSatan isn't the only game in town have anything to do with it?
Still, a national default followed by guillotining the BanKhazars would be most entertaining!

Anonymous DonReynolds February 16, 2013 10:18 AM  

This is one of the few themes that runs throughout all of American history, the constant argument between the "hard money" advocates and the "easy money" advocates.

The hard money crowd, more recently called "gold bugs", have typically held to a strict gold standard as the basis for currency. They tended to be savers, creditors, investors, conservatives, and the wealthy. Deflation is not an ugly word to the gold bugs.

The easy money crowd, historically called "bimetalists", have always advocated for the free minting of silver, and an availability of easy credit for business and individuals. More recently, they advocated for expansion of the money supply to stimulate the general economy. They tended to be potential borrowers, entrepreneurs, liberals, trade unionists, and homebuilders. The feel that a lack of money and credit is holding the economy back from realizing its full potential and a little inflation is a good thing.

Anonymous DonReynolds February 16, 2013 10:27 AM  

Wal-Mart (or Wal-Martinez) is a pretty good economic barometer of the economy for the lower half of the population. These customers have little propensity to save. When they get money, they take it to Wal-Mart (or K-Mart, or Target) and SPEND it. If they are not spending, the fish has started to rot and this rot will spread soon to the other sectors of the economy, except in those sectors directly supported by Federal subsidy or welfare.

Luxury goods, which is to say, those who sell luxury goods, will also see a dip in sales as the Obamba taxes sink into the income stream. This should hit home by mid April, when the first quarter tax bills come due. If sales have been disappointing in the meantime, watch for white collar layoffs in an effort to trim salaries and fixed overhead. It works like that. No cotton, no cotton pickers.

Blogger JCclimber February 16, 2013 10:40 AM  

Walmart and Costco have consistently been economic barometers of the economy.

When retail sales dip, those two and other discount stores' sales go up a little. Because of "hedonic" spending, people go buy cheaper products when their money supply declines.

When Walmart and Costco sales dip, check to see if the other retails sales went up, to see if the shoppers returned to their old stores. In this case, I am certain that it means the "hedonic" adjustment in spending has dipped to a new level. Either they decreased buying further, only buying essentials, or the shopper has found an even cheaper alternative to Walmart (Systeme D or the underground economy).

Anonymous DonReynolds February 16, 2013 10:46 AM  

Rantor...."Wal Mart can't keep ammo or guns in their stores around here, they just need to carry what sells! Will stop by this morning to help them out if they have any .40 or .223 in stock."

Save time and gasoline. They have nothing. The only .22 rimfire is ratshot. ZERO pistol ammo....and I do mean zero. A few boxes of .270, 7mm Mag, and exactly three boxes of 30-06, and I am pretty sure they are gone already.

I have a friend that has a cousin that works at the Remington ammo plant nearby. He says they run round the clock, 24/7, but all of the production is for military AND EXPORT. ONLY two days of the week is devoted to civilian use and this is not expected to change in the next few months.

There is no ammunition. If you still have some in your private stash....SAVE IT. There is no idea when you will be able to get more. No more practice shooting. Keep your powder dry. This is not a drill.

Anonymous stg58/Animal Mother February 16, 2013 11:08 AM  

What the Fuck, Remington? Our money isn't good enough?

Anonymous Raggededge February 16, 2013 11:35 AM  

@DonReynolds: If you don't mind remanufactured ammo, I suggest Freedom Munitions, I was able to buy 1500 rounds of .223 from them this week. This morning they had bulk .45acp available. Their customer service is awesome and their ammo shoot clean.

Anonymous TheWesman February 16, 2013 11:36 AM  

Some thoughts that haven't been brought up. 1) The payroll former withholding that was eliminated, then reinstated at the first of the year. 2) The personal knowledge of over a dozen of my friends having had their workweek cut to 28hrs as a result of Obamacare.

In my opinion the workweek cut is the most significant of the impacts at the moment.

TheWesman

Anonymous Aeoli Pera February 16, 2013 11:58 AM  

I like JCclimber's idea of using WalMart as a barometer. I'd also like to add a time delay to it:

The poor spend money whenever they have it -> White collar middle class prosperity depends on the spending of the poor -> Blue collar middle class prosperity depends on the spending of the white collar middle class ... And so on up to the movers and shakers.

This doesn't rise to the level of an economic observation. That's just how it seems to work here in America.

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 11:59 AM  

Inflation is a sure consequence of removing the backing of a currency from anything tangible. It has happened throughout history to every fiat currency and will continue to happen.

The US dollar is not special.

Speaking of shopping and doing my part to stimulate the economy, I have been trying to purchase an AR-15 M4 for a few weeks now and the back log seems to be around 4-8 months on average. I thought I had someone to build one for me but nothing has come of that.

You guys are wealth of knowledge in these matters: Any suggestions?

I am anxious to get something in our hands before either restrictive laws are put in place or the collapse of modern civilization starts in earnest.

Anonymous Godfrey February 16, 2013 12:01 PM  

@Vox

"The fact that the politicians and bankers so vigorously prefer attempting to inflate their way out demonstrates that they don't give a damn about the economy or the people, and that inflation in a sufficiently orderly manner is not always possible."



This is so obvious that it drives me mad that the average Joe “state-worshiper” doesn’t see it and wake up from his slumber.

When you really get down to the brass tacks of it, the real political divide among the masses within the empire is between those that believe- and love - the narcissistic psychopaths that rule us and those who don’t. How much more obvious does it have to get before the former wake up?

Anonymous Godfrey February 16, 2013 12:03 PM  

@ Mina

At this point you may want to buy anything you can get. A firearm will most likely hold its value better than the currency.


Anonymous Aeoli Pera February 16, 2013 12:17 PM  

I can vouch for the effect of the 28-hour workweek. It hit the workers at WalMart and similar about 3 months ago.

This is not disposable income we're talking about. The new version of poor person is indebted into a hole such that they can't crawl out with a miniscule income and matching IQ. So any luxury purchases- on the order of a new pair of shoes, a manicure, a visit to the doctor, et cetera- come out of their loan payments. Banks understand this and can be very forgiving as long as the money keeps flowing in general.

Just imagine: This entire demographic stops making loan payments en masse.

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 12:20 PM  

Godfrey February 16, 2013 12:03 PM:

Agreed. Yes we have been doing just that.

We really want the AR15 though and just simply can't seem to be able to lay our hands on one. Not even parts are available, it seems.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera February 16, 2013 12:24 PM  

If anybody wants to play Actuary, here are some toys:

Daily min. wage for 8 hours is ~$50 after withholding. 28 hours is 3.5 days' worth, or $175. 40 hours would be five days or $250.

You can argue for cutoffs in different places, but I'd say this strongly affects 27 million households (incomes below 25K) and weakly affects another 20 million or so.

http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=income+distribution+us

Anonymous Godfrey February 16, 2013 12:28 PM  

I've observed the owner of the gun shop I patronize chuckling when someone comes in looking for AR15 firearms or parts. There are none right now. He said Obama is the best gun salesman ever.

Anonymous stg58/Animal Mother February 16, 2013 12:49 PM  

Mina, where do you live?

Www.Gunbroker.com

Go there and your needs will be met.

Anonymous JT February 16, 2013 1:04 PM  

The wage earner gets so screwed, if there we're no "safety net" wal mart would be fucked, cuz the gov't (hence, taxpayers) wouldn't be there to subsidize the wages of their workers. As well, directly in food stamps, etc., spent there (never go into walmart the first week of the month), are also a gov't subsidy.

It's been bad for a long time, the fact that it got worse—that is, bad enough to expose the spending based off no production growth—means nothing, except that we're into the part of the graph of the economy where the downswing is always going to be deeper and longer than the last.

In the 70s I lived in the boonies and my family grew a lot of our own food.

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 1:05 PM  

stg58/Animal Mother February 16, 2013 12:49 PM:

Great link, just what I needed. Thank you!

Anonymous Jack Amok February 16, 2013 1:06 PM  

Interesting that someone brought up Maker's Mark again. Two things interesting about it actually. One, it's a mirror of inflation itself, reducing the value o a bottle by watering it down to make it stretch. Not enough production to meet demand. A sane company would raise prices instead of destroying the reputation of the product. But I guess they have idiots running the show. Well, that's the problem with our economy too - not enough production of wealth to meet all the demand for consuming it. So we water it down in order to make sure all the unproductive people can still get some. Eventually it's so much water, nobody really wants it any more.

Second interesting thing is how it relates to Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart has been making their profit by grinding suppliers into the dust. Those suppliers might start out with quality products, but eventually they must start debasing them to meet Wal-Mart's pricing demands. Eventually stuff gets outsourced to China, where prices are low and quality is even lower. At some point, the quality drops so low, the shit doesn't even work. It gets so bad it doesn't even meet the minimal standards of the folks who shop at Wal-Mart anymore.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera February 16, 2013 1:06 PM  

Because it's an economics thread, one more data point I should mention is that the U.S. is in the middle of an oil boom. That'll keep us going for a while. I think in the next 5 years we're going to see humorously transparent attempts to drain the continent's oil at a ridiculous pace to prop up our worthless economy.

Fellow doomsayers, adjust your timetables accordingly. Remember, for reasons like this our predictions tend to be miss on the early side.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera February 16, 2013 1:08 PM  

I can typing.

Anonymous Imatiger February 16, 2013 1:11 PM  

Hey, at least the gun manufacturers and other participants in the military industrial complex are getting paid through the payroll tax! So go buy some guns for the impending collapse! Wait...

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 1:22 PM  

re: the oil situation. you have to wonder how desperate we are and how gone the easy to find oil really is when we start squeezing oil out of rocks and find it's actually economically feasible to do so.

I remember debating energy policy on the Debate Team in HS.

I was always on the side of arguing for oil depletion and in favor of alternate sources.

I can remember putting up a defense about shale oil and how incredulous I and everyone else seemed to be that we'd ever have to go to such lengths to produce oil ... hard to believe we are actually doing it now.

We're so incredibly oil addicted. We won't stop until every drop is drunk.

Anonymous stg58/Animal Mother February 16, 2013 1:36 PM  

Go forth and be armed, Mina.

Anonymous stg58/Animal Mother February 16, 2013 1:40 PM  

What's wrong with oil, Mina?

Anonymous Jack Amok February 16, 2013 1:43 PM  

Mina,

Www.Gunbroker.com

Go there and your needs will be met.


Just make sure you have a local FFL guy who can process your order. The big commercial ones around here are swamped and many aren't handling new orders until they clear out a backlog. Another indication of the situation.

Anonymous Geoff February 16, 2013 2:01 PM  

@Vox Day

Yeah, but Charybdis/deflation makes the pain happen today, while Scylla/hyperinflation lets you enjoy today instead. Which one have politicians/bankers always selected?

Anonymous buzzcut February 16, 2013 2:25 PM  

@ Mina -

also, try

http://www.armslist.com/

Great local search capability.

Anonymous Geoff February 16, 2013 3:22 PM  

@Vox Day,

Yeah, but the Charybdis/deflation causes pain immediately, while Scylla/hyperinflation lets me worry about it tomorrow. Which road have the politicians and bankers always chosen?

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 3:24 PM  

"What's wrong with oil, Mina?"

I don't pretend to be an expert in this area. Generally the opinion I have formed is that instead of using oil as prescribed to help us make our everyday lives a little easier, what we did instead was become so addicted to the stuff that we can't live without it and it now permeates absolutely every aspect of our lives.

In allowing this we and have turned our communities and culture upside down and inside out in order to maximize our consumption of oil. A lot of what we find wrong about our food supply (factory farming/feed lots, tainted meats, vegetables carrying E Coli), our living conditions (suburban sprawl), and our quality of life (spending most of our time in a car, moving from one far away place to another mostly in the support of big box stores whose profits don't filter back into our communities) - we can lay blame at the feet of excess oil consumption.

Basically, our entire suburban lifestyle apparatus is built on the promise of cheap, easy availability of oil which has no guarantee on continuing ad infinitum into the future.

Considering the eminent economic crash, our reliance on oil is going to be a huge Achilles heel in our ability to adjust to new realities and living conditions. When people can't operate their vehicles the way they are used to or roads become unnavigable people are just going to freak. Most people have no idea how to secure food or the necessities of every day life without the constant and consistent use of their vehicles. Communities will descend into chaos a lot faster and harder because of that.

Insofar as shale oil, what I said specifically is "you have to wonder how desperate we are and how gone the easy to find oil really is when we start squeezing oil out of rocks and find it's actually economically feasible to do so." So what we are admitting when we start squeezing oil out of rocks is the easy to get oil is no longer easy to get and we need to find alternative ways of getting it. I think we can all agree that squeezing oil out of rocks has to be considered a last desperate measure for the last drops that are able to be gotten.

I am no expert so I quote one of my favorite blogs on oil, suburban sprawl and the loss of places we can care about: "Clusterfuck Nation".

"The realm of oil is especially ripe for misunderstanding, since we depend on the stuff so desperately, and the world's geology is complex indeed, and then you have to bring math and money into the picture.
...
These shale plays represent oil that is trapped in "tight," low-permeability rock that has to undergo fracturing operations ("fracking") before you can drain it out. It costs a lot more to get oil this way than by sticking a pipe in the ground and running a pump-jack to get it out the old-fashioned way. There are more than a few dirty secrets about the shale oil plays, but the biggest one is that you have to throw a huge amount of capital and steel at it to keep it running as an ongoing enterprise, and that money - other people's money - will be in shockingly short supply in the years head.
...
Here's the truth about the US shale plays: they will never amount to more than about one million barrels-a-day (m/b/d) in production under any circumstances (the nation uses 19 m/b/d); and even more probably the money will not be there to keep the shale oil coming very many years into the future. You can take that to the bank (if your money has any value when you get there, and if the bank has not cratered)."

http://kunstler.com/blog/2011/09/the-rainmakers.html
James Howard Kunstler

I am of course to open to new and compelling information.

Anonymous cheddarman February 16, 2013 3:43 PM  

What does it take to become a small caliber ammo manufacturer?

Given the demand, one would think that the Feds are putting the squeeze on anyone that would try and start manufacturing ammunition or importing it into the U.S. from elsewhere.

The shortage does not make sense, otherwise.

Anyone know anything about this?

Sincerely

cheddarman

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 3:55 PM  

cheddarman February 16, 2013 3:43 PM:

There seems to be a lot of talk about the DHS buying up ammo like crazy all over the place ... millions, no billions of rounds.

Related? possibly.

Blogger James Higham February 16, 2013 4:05 PM  

What - end of the second or third quarter for the crash? Or a crash by degrees?

Anonymous rycamor February 16, 2013 4:23 PM  

Mina February 16, 2013 3:55 PM

cheddarman February 16, 2013 3:43 PM:

There seems to be a lot of talk about the DHS buying up ammo like crazy all over the place ... millions, no billions of rounds.

Related? possibly.


When the SHTF, all the DHS guys who can manage it will start ferreting away that ammo into private stores to trade for food and provisions.

Me? I'll be growing tobacco, among other things.

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 5:07 PM  

"Emminent" = these days I use Vox's estimate of mid year 2014 for a crash.

Based on my research I think the dollar will see real problems this year by mid year.

"I'll be growing tobacco, among other things."

Very smart. I am learning how to build solar generators and ham radios.

I also know how to breed and train horses - that might come in handy if we can keep people from eating them during the disconnect.

Anonymous Kickass February 16, 2013 6:23 PM  

Are we not going to discuss the asteroids then?

Anonymous Kickass February 16, 2013 6:34 PM  

I know this is not as important as guns or gold, but I just wanted to mention that good dogs are also an excellent use of your money. Since the breeder is most important here, in my opinion because of the quality of the genetic line, I see purchasing high genetic quality dogs who are fertile a good preparedness item and possible home business if necessary. While you pay more on the front end to be able to breed them, I think it is a small investment that may be worthwhile in the future and should be low on the list of being outlawed.

Anonymous stg58/Animal Mother February 16, 2013 6:36 PM  

Boxers. Ghetto thug black guys are scared shitless of them. Children develop deep, unbreakable bonds with them. Freight trains in dog form.

Anonymous The other skeptic February 16, 2013 6:41 PM  

Looks like Video Game Consoles are taking a beating too.

Anonymous PC Geek February 16, 2013 7:22 PM  

@Mina

"Emminent" = these days I use Vox's estimate of mid year 2014 for a crash.

Eeek...I thought Vox was indicating a collapse circa 2033...where did he mention 2014?

@Kickass

If I recall, you are one of my fellow Ilk in NJ - I am looking to adopt a boxer dog of my own for both compansionship and for defensive use as well. Where did you find your boxer(s)? (ditto for stg58 if you are in the tri-state area)

@Ilk in general

I am a sorta- newbie prepper - one of the people retarded enough to have only taken prep seriously in the past few months. I have been reading Ferfal's blog and his book like crazy, among a few others, but I think both myself and others could really benefit from some discussion of how the better prepared Ilk have gone about things.

I am working on the basics now - 6 month supply food/water, obtaining a firearm license (I live in NJ), and also looking to get a dog as well. But I am inexperienced, so I will humbly request assistance to any who would be so kind as to offer it. Maybe at some point this could even be a thread about it, if our esteemed host deems the topic important enough.

Either way, thanks all and God bless!

PC Geek

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 7:30 PM  

My theory is that all boxer lovers are secretly or unknowingly pit bull lovers - that's how I ended up with my first pit bull.

Having said that, they make terrible guard dogs. They are too friendly and not very territorial.

I had a recommendation from an Australian guard dog trainer that what you want is a Malinois. The best guard / attack dog bar none.

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 7:39 PM  

Here is my friend's Canine training blog / business in AUS and a photo of a very impressive looking Malinois. Wow.
http://www.k9services.com.au/2012/selective-suppression-for-successful-working-and-performance-dogs/

Dogs ... "should be low on the list of being outlawed."

Apparently in AUS they have banned not only guns but attack-trained dogs.

And as we know in the US there are many instances of bans on specific "scary looking" dog breeds (like pit bulls.)

I don't know if I would call dog bans "low on the list" based on that.

Anonymous PC Geek February 16, 2013 7:41 PM  

I had a recommendation from an Australian guard dog trainer that what you want is a Malinois. The best guard / attack dog bar none.

Won't breeds like that cause your homeowners' insurance to skyrocket?

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 7:48 PM  

There are quite a few homeowners insurance companies that do not discriminate based on the type of dog the home owner chooses to own.

State Farm comes immediately to mind.

But yes, when you start getting into the more "high end" type dogs you do need to be cognizant of these types of issues.

Anonymous PC Geek February 16, 2013 7:52 PM  

@Mina

Thanks for the info!

One other thing if i may ask - I am trying to find your reference to Vox predicting a crash in 2014...he tends to be on the ball so if he did I need to put my prepping into overdrive...

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 7:55 PM  

2014 - there was a post he made somewhere on one of the blog entries to my recollection.

but! I could be mistaken. probably stick with his official documentation. I certainly don't want to be one to put words into Vox's mouth.

Anonymous zen0 February 16, 2013 8:01 PM  

Mina said:
2014 - there was a post he made somewhere on one of the blog entries to my recollection.

PC Geek said:

Eeek...I thought Vox was indicating a collapse circa 2033...where did he mention 2014?

if memory serves, Nate is more the rash optimist. I think Vox gives it the longer time.

Anonymous The other skeptic February 16, 2013 8:09 PM  

Good luck getting or keeping guns if you live in NJ

Anonymous Jack Amok February 16, 2013 8:23 PM  

There seems to be a lot of talk about the DHS buying up ammo like crazy all over the place ... millions, no billions of rounds.

Related? possibly.


Theory #1 ) Ammo is an easy thing for corrupt apparatchiks to steal, trade, horde and sell. Not hard to account for it missing. "Where'd that pallet of .40 ammo go?" "Oh, that. It was, ah, 'consumed' at the range last month."

Theory #2 ) Feds are stocking up in preparation for an EPA ruling making it essentially impossible to legally manufacture ammo. The gun grabbers have decided it'll be easier to go after ammo than after guns.

Dog breeds...

You might consider a Standard Poodle. Yeah, yeah, go ahead and laugh, but they were originally bred for subsistence duck hunters in Germany or Poland (Poodle = puddle dog, they're retrievers). These were guys who couldn't afford multiple specialized dogs, so they got a breed that could hunt, herd, guard and basically learn whatever needed doing. Standard Poodle BTW are 60-70 lbs and exceptionally fast (they make excellent rabbit hunters). If you don't try to groom them into show dogs, their coats naturally become corded, making a thick, briar resistant covering for crashing through underbrush.

Anonymous sprach von Teufelshunden February 16, 2013 9:18 PM  

I do wonder how many here have taken some real action to the problem. Case in point. My recent exchange with Dr. Paul Craig Roberts. (This is not the first. But the latest of several attempts. I have done same with LRC, Alex Jones, and even Drudge, to apparent thus far deaf ears.)

RE: While Left And Right Fight, Power Wins

"Overnight the US could transition from superpower to third world penitent begging for a rescue program."
- PCR

“When the power and arrogance of government combine with the power and arrogance of multi-national corporations, the fate that results is dominated by tyranny and corruption.” …
- Marilyn MacGruder Barnewall

"...if that portion of the American government that has gone rogue hadn’t STOLEN the funds President Ronald Reagan had the foresight to have Leo Emil Wanta put aside for the American people, there would be NO DEBT for you, your children, your grandchildren – and their children for generations to come – to pay. His life has, indeed, impacted yours though you may never hear the name Leo Wanta spoken. Our ECONOMY would be HUMMING. Everyone who wanted a job would have one. Foreclosures – 46 percent of which are fraudulent, according to the experts – wouldn’t openly practice fraud that kicks so many Americans out of their homes. The entire world wouldn’t be HEADING into SLAVERY via the “New World Order.”
[emphasis mine]
© Marilyn MacGruder Barnewall January 2012

INTRODUCTION

Dr. Roberts, I'm tired, "We The People," are tired of people just identifying and whining about the problem. We know what the problem is. We need solutions. Not hand-wringing and sulking. A solution was provided for us by your boss, even before his was inaugurated. You didn't know about this? Well now you do. Time to start proclaiming the solution.

Marilyn Barnewall has done the research. She identifies the problem like probably no one else can, being the "Dean of private banking." More than that, she communicates the solution(s). It is high time for all of us to start listening, and disseminating the solution.


I getting quite pissed with these "talking heads." Enough talk. Time for action. So North Korea may well be a Nephilim laboratory. The best way to stop a Third Force, [1] is with national sovereignty (that will in turn give us individual sovereignty). This sovereignty via economic freedom. One can start getting this "freedom" back with $30+ TRILLION in the U.S. Treasury and economy...



-------------
[1] Listen to podcasts with Dr. Preston James for further amplification.

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 9:20 PM  

LOVE the standard poodle!! Great dogs, super smart. You can teach them anything.

Found one wandering the Forest Preserve when we were on a trail ride in the fall. 9 mos old - not potty trained (poor thing.) New home reports: She is perfect in every way ... training for agility.

Great dogs. I'd love to have a couple myself. Doesn't hurt how beautiful they are, too.

Anonymous HardReturn February 16, 2013 9:32 PM  

@Mina
Kunstler is a creep. Years ago I heard him talk at a conference and he stopped in his talk to swear and rant at hotel cleaning staff for making noise during his illustrious talk. His assumptions in his talk were that everyone else is as bitter and jaundiced as he is. I said after that not only would I not buy his book, but I wouldn't read any because he's a prick.

Anonymous The OASF February 16, 2013 9:32 PM  

This Rubio nonsense is nothing but a swerve. A distraction. A hoax and dare I say a “conspiracy theory.”

For just when you thought that nobody could possibly achieve lower approval ratings than 8%...

Or that anyone would be stupid enough to campaign on T-shirts proudly stating… “We’re all Anti-South-Ossetians Now!”

And if by some chance you thought that the Bohemian Club Sodomite Network (aka the GOP) could not manage just one last back-door penetration attempt into the White House…

Well guess what. You were wrong.

I was wrong.

We were all wrong…

Hell, even VD was wrong.

Because… off in the horizon… approaching slowly but stealthily… is the last great hope of the Party of the drunken POS war anti-hero Ulysses Grant.

That shadow of darkness in the tunnel of light…

The last genetic mistake squeezed out of the semen of the Skull & Bones / Illuminati resident moron emeritus…

Proof that two hands in the Bush really is better than one bird in hand…

The last of the Jebediya.

The only fat pig enough to take a shit on both Florida and Texas at the same time.

That’s right.

You didn’t dream it.

Believe it.

The OINKER.

He cometh.

Comething to propaganda networks and rigged diebold voting machine booths everywhere circa November 2016.

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 9:44 PM  

HardReturn February 16, 2013 9:32 PM:

He is a major asshole, there is no doubt. Doesn't make him wrong in his assessments of where we are or where we're headed.

Anonymous Kickass February 16, 2013 9:50 PM  

@ Mina, I never said attack trained dogs. I said high quality dogs. This could be any breed. There are many jobs that dogs do. Hunting dogs, guard dogs, sheep herding dogs...the list goes on. Depending on where you live, you can easily get a small sample pack of dogs that you could, if necessary, breed to bring in extra income. And a dog being able to guard you well does not have to be trained. Certain dogs are simply protective dogs. Akita, Mastiff, Rottie, Shepards, Dobermans, these do not have to be trained. They simply have it as part of their personality. You simply check with your town and make sure they are not on the list for high risk dogs (like pits often are) and you are fine.

@ PCGEEK, yeah, I hate it but I am in NJ for the foreseeable future. No way around it right now. I have done the best I can though, and pray.

I don't have a boxer, though a family member does and they are very good dogs with families and look scary. I am sure they could be protective, the one I have had contact with would be alert around strangers, but would really lick you to death more then anything. You have to seriously assess your situation before you get anything. What type of home you live in, the time you could spend with the animal, whether you have small children, close neighbors, etc. Then once you do that, find some breeds and go visit a dog show. This was one of the best things we did. Talk to the people, they will out and out tell you about the breeds pros and cons. Then get the best breeder you can afford. That is what I did and we paid dearly but I have not had a single problem with our dogs.

The first prep you need, God. I am sure others are much better with this, I could point you to survivalblog.com and others. I would recommend you pray first before you do anything. Where I live now and what I am able to do know is night and day from a few years ago and is the outright result of prayer. No other explaination.

Anonymous Kickass February 16, 2013 9:54 PM  


@OS, yikes, I didn't think it would go through. Lovely.

Anonymous The Next to Last Samurai February 16, 2013 9:56 PM  

I filed at the end of January and got my refund 3 weeks later, much to my surprise as I had also been hearing all the news stories about how long it would take.

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 9:57 PM  

"Certain dogs are simply protective dogs. Akita, Mastiff, Rottie, Shepards, Dobermans, these do not have to be trained."

That's why they are categorized as "guard dog" breeds.


Anonymous The Next to Last Samurai February 16, 2013 10:04 PM  

Hasn't the AKC managed to ruin boxers yet? Good news, if true.

Anonymous Mina February 16, 2013 10:11 PM  

Boxers? yes, they are subject to epilepsy as well as several other intrusive hereditary ailments.

.... like most animals bred to meet a "standard" rather than a performance level.

Anonymous stg58/Animal Mother February 16, 2013 10:21 PM  

Many large dogs are also prone to develop hip dysplasia, whether bred for a standard or a performance level.

Anonymous zen0 February 16, 2013 10:29 PM  

Time for action. So North Korea may well be a Nephilim laboratory. The best way to stop a Third Force,

Your mission, von Teufelshunden, you crazy Lutheran bastard, if you choose to accept it, will be to infiltrate the filthy North Korean Nephilim Factories and gather information.

Do not try to contact us, as communications are compromised. Stay there until we call you.

Anonymous HardReturn February 16, 2013 11:33 PM  

@Mina
standard poodles are terrific--smart, easily trained, good retrievers. Just be careful of parentage because they are prone to Addison's disease and bloat. Mine died at age 6 due to Addison's problems. The only time I cried harder was when my father died.

Anonymous Robert in Arabia February 17, 2013 2:38 AM  

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=a8aGJlXuavk&feature=youtu.be

Will not be our next president.

Anonymous Mina February 17, 2013 8:21 AM  

stg58/Animal Mother February 16, 2013 10:21 PM:

I have to wonder about that statement. How would hip dysplasia be possible in an animal bred solely for performance?

Wouldn't affected animals be selected out over time due to the fact that because of their defect, they would be unable to perform and thus not be bred and not pass the defect onto the next generation?

I understand why we assume the statement "big dogs get hip dyplasia" to be true. I agree with you that most breeds of large dog do seem to suffer from hip dysplasia. But, it is possible we only think it's true because we don't have any truly performance-bred animals?

Example: Border collies just became AKC registerable in the past 15 years. Before that - were there incidents of hip dysplasia? They were a purely performance bred animal at that time. Is there hip dysplasia in the breed now?

From my understanding, it seems that most breeds of dog recognized by either the AKC or UKC have a preponderance of all types of hereditary defects and diseases that weren't present before humans started breeding them for something other than performance. For that reason I have been very leery about acquiring purebred dogs over the years and none of my many dogs have had any problems until my most recent who has terrible skin problems - what a pain! - he is supposedly a "pure bred" dog although certainly not "well bred". My anecdotal experience seems to support my understanding.

I'd not even have this last dog had he not been left in my truck at my diesel mechanic's shop as an 8week old pup and begged me to take him home. It didn't help that he was a product of my mechanic's female dog with whom I was madly in love.

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