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Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Gambling is going on in here?

Fox contributor Tobin Smith apparently failed to realize that he was supposed to make his profit on the pump from price movements, not directly:
Most investors can’t tell the difference between “sponsored investment research” and independent analysis, and that’s exactly what the “sponsors” — typically small companies paying for a marketing campaign that will inflate their stock activity and value — are counting on.

The difference gets even tougher to figure out when the sponsor hires someone who is known for giving independent commentary colored only by their own feelings and research. Think of it like a big honking commercial, with a celebrity endorser.

Last week, that bought-and-paid for stock endorsement was a 20-page mailer about Petrosonic Energy, supported by an e-mail campaign, featuring Tobin Smith, a money manager who has been a fixture on the television news shows for 15 years, and who is a regular on the Fox networks, describing himself on Twitter as a “guest anchor.” According to Fox, he is “a contributing market analyst for FOX News Channel and a regular panelist on ‘Bulls & Bears.’” (Fox, like MarketWatch, is owned by News Corp.)

While investors might have ordinarily treated the “special edition” of the new Next Big Thing Investor newsletter — Smith’s latest, just-started investment newsletter — like junk mail or spam, Smith’s name and his smiling, personable countenance had some investors doing a double-take, at least judging from the e-mails I received on the subject.

The people who contacted me considered buying the stock entirely based on Smith’s say-so, and the credibility he exudes in his Fox appearances. They didn’t appear to read the disclaimers of the campaign; had they bothered, they would have quickly found it was paid advertising for which Smith’s company pocketed $50,000.
The thing is, there is absolutely no difference between what Smith did and what Kudlow, Cramer, Bartiromo, and all the other financial news analysts do.  They're all paid to try to sucker people into the stock market and they all benefit from seeing prices rise as the suckers create churn. I've never seen a study on this, and it has been a LONG time since I bothered watching what purports to pass for the financial stuff, but I would assume that there are probably 10 "buy" recommendations for every "sell" recommendation.

It's not analysis, it's cheerleading, and it has nothing whatsoever to do with economic realities or what the purported purpose of a stock market is.  The whole thing is a Fed-inflated casino, which is why "investors" are all breathlessly waiting today to see if Helicopter Ben is going to keep the party going another quarter.

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55 Comments:

Anonymous Outlaw X June 19, 2013 6:34 AM  

I guess an honest man, never gives financial advice in a rigged game. Maybe that's the lesson? Among others.

Anonymous Stunner June 19, 2013 7:37 AM  

OT *** sorry to bother you Vox... but you should know they are after your wife (spacebunny)

http://jamesworrad.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/vox-day-schrodingers-spacebunny.html

Not cool of them...

Anonymous Squid Goldman June 19, 2013 7:42 AM  

Its not gambling if you own the casino.

Blogger Nate June 19, 2013 7:49 AM  

In 2008 Schiff was on Fox telling everyone the truth... and the usual cheerleaders were mocking him. They literally cost people billions. They wrecked people.

And here we are in 2013... and the same guys who were literally telling you to buy stock in freaking Lehman Brothers and Merril Lynch... are still there... and still telling you how great the stock market is.

Schiff?

No where to be seen.

Blogger Nate June 19, 2013 7:52 AM  

also... if you want to invest in a company... figure out how to invest in Airbus. They are kicking the hell out of Boeing these days. They are racking up literally billions in new orders.

Anonymous VD June 19, 2013 8:08 AM  

you should know they are after your wife (spacebunny)

No worries, it has now been proven she doesn't even exist.

Blogger Nate June 19, 2013 8:14 AM  

"No worries, it has now been proven she doesn't even exist."


has anyone broken the news to Ender?

Anonymous Rantor June 19, 2013 8:24 AM  

BEst looking sock puppet I have seen though...

Anonymous Outlaw X June 19, 2013 8:28 AM  

Hey Nate, what do you think of Max Keiser, I have my opinion, would like to know yours even if you even have one?

Blogger Nate June 19, 2013 8:30 AM  

Outlaw... I have no opinion. I am vaguely familiar with the name. That's all.

Anonymous Salt June 19, 2013 8:32 AM  



Fox Business Network has terminated the contract of contributor Tobin Smith, who was paid $50,000 to tout the stock of Petrosonic Energy, a network spokesperson told Business Insider.

Smith's contract was terminated under the network's contributor policy, which states that "no contributor to FBN, nor his/her firm, and/or family members are allowed to accept financial consideration of any kind whatsoever to issue research, advertisements, or to otherwise promote individual stocks or securities."

Anonymous bob k. mando June 19, 2013 8:35 AM  

Stunner June 19, 2013 7:37 AM
OT *** sorry to bother you Vox... but you should know they are after your wife (spacebunny)
http://jamesworrad.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/vox-day-schrodingers-spacebunny.html




Worrad posts ... oddly frequently ... about Furries considering that he claims not be one.

Blogger Nate June 19, 2013 8:38 AM  

"Worrad posts ... oddly frequently ... about Furries considering that he claims not be one."

Furries creep me the hell out.

Anonymous Lorem Ipsum June 19, 2013 8:43 AM  

Tobin Smith has always given me the creeps, he's got that giant fake smile constantly showing off his freakishly white veneers. Almost like a "youth" excessively proud of his 18K grill.

Man smiles like that, you know he's selling something that doesn't work.

Anonymous VD June 19, 2013 8:47 AM  

I responded to Worrad's post at Alpha Game. It is a remarkable example of the gamma mentality at work.

Blogger James Dixon June 19, 2013 8:53 AM  

> In 2008 Schiff was on Fox telling everyone the truth... and the usual cheerleaders were mocking him. They literally cost people billions. They wrecked people.

Don't have money in the market you can't afford to lose. It's an old saw, but it's still true. Not that banks are any safer at this point.

Anonymous Poli_Mis June 19, 2013 8:54 AM  

Nate, I used to subscribe to his channel on YouTube when I was into watching bad economic news. Now, I am content to just read about it.

Max Keiser TV

But he sure as hell is not mainstream and if memory serves, he lives abroad.

Blogger Astrosmith June 19, 2013 8:59 AM  

If Spacebunny doesn't exist, then I suppose it was Vox that knitted a baby hat for my #4 child a few years ago? The lengths he goes to in order to maintain this fiction!

Blogger beerme June 19, 2013 9:08 AM  

Max Keiser on yuppies

Anonymous Outlaw X June 19, 2013 9:08 AM  

But he sure as hell is not mainstream and if memory serves, he lives abroad.

He lives in France and has a show on RT with his girlfriend Stacy Herbert. He mkes a lot of sense but a few years ago he was going to take JP Morgan Down y buying physical silver and was selling 1 oz coins with his face minted on them. Then he moved to take Cocacola down. Now he ist the Bitcoin man who has half interst in Bit Pay. He makes no secret of these things, But I have done better by not listening to his financial advice. I don't care to libel myself because he is transparent in his dealings. He predicted a stock Market and Bond crash in April and said it would start in Japan. He seems to be a couple months off.

I won't talk bad about him because he knows too much.

Anonymous VryeDenker June 19, 2013 9:10 AM  

I must say, Vox is quite knowledgeable on the topic of baking and facebook games for a supposed "alpha male".

Anonymous Idle Spectator June 19, 2013 9:13 AM  

Everything is crumbling around us and in flux. It is like the Italian Renaissance again.


The internet is the new printing press.

The gatekeepers are crumbling and transforming one by one. Music, movies, television, radio, news media, academia, public schools, video games, magazines, newspapers, and books.

Christiandom is, once again, at war with Islam on a wide scale.

The NSA is watching everyone. That is similar to the "Mouths of Truth" statues they had set up in places around the Italian cities. Anonymous informants could make accusations against anyone. You would simply slip the complaint written on a piece of paper into the statue. No one is safe; not a judge, the president, or a businessman. Similar to the Italian Renaissance where even the pope was under threat.

The financial markets and political situation are getting so corrupt, it is about as corrupt as the Medici family in Italy.

The religious front is no better. Combine the Catholic Sex Scandal with the Protestant sects declining in strength and the Mormons with polygamy and Islam coming back along, along with paganism returning and gay marriage, and it gets interesting. Church attendance is declining. The corruption of the church during the Italian Renaissance was dizzying.

The country is bankrupt, and it is getting worse by the day with the Baby Boomers retiring. Similar during the Renaissance, with how principalities would become bankrupt constantly and overnight. Not to mention the entire IRS fiasco. They are about as corrupt as the Medici targeting people with their tax laws.

The current marriage and divorce laws and nuclear family structure are shot, and something is stirring with the internet delivering something new. You have two poles right now: traditional families, and alternative structures. I keep getting reminded of the widespread mistresses and homosexuality during the Renaissance alongside their traditional families. We have single mothers, out of wedlock births, family courts, and homosexuality instead. Of course you then had the backlash against sodomy with the Officers of the Night in Italy. It reminds me of Russia cracking down on homosexuality.

Mix in the immigration problem, diversity, and multiculturalism, which is likely to fragment the country like Italian city-states, and the Here be dragons! phase is certainly coming next.

Blogger Nate June 19, 2013 9:16 AM  

"I must say, Vox is quite knowledgeable on the topic of baking and facebook games for a supposed "alpha male"."

Also... this means I have awesome little baby hats that Vox knitted for my kids.

Anonymous Idle Spectator June 19, 2013 9:17 AM  

So music, movies, television, radio, news media, academia, public schools, video games, magazines, newspapers, books, politics, government, personal privacy, economics, money supply, financial markets, religion, the family structure, immigration, demographics, and the country's borders are all in major upheaval.


This is going to get good.

Blogger Nate June 19, 2013 9:24 AM  

"This is going to get good."

That's an... odd... definition of "good" you have there.

Anonymous ZhukovG June 19, 2013 9:40 AM  

@Nate

I agree. It may not be a live reenactment of Mad Max, but I don't consider 'Mega-deaths', to be out of the question either.

Anonymous Stilicho June 19, 2013 9:41 AM  

Today they are all breathlessly awaiting "news" that the Berstanke is going to pump up nominal stock prices with more "easing." No wealth creation, just a nominal pump, nothing real, but they are as giddy as Japanese schoolgirls awaiting the arrival of the latest teen boy band. I expect Cramer would swoon and faint from an overdose of the feminine vapors if Bernanke ever mentioned him by name.

Anonymous Stunner June 19, 2013 9:46 AM  

"I responded to Worrad's post at Alpha Game. It is a remarkable example of the gamma mentality at work."

Just be careful, Vox. They are trying to goad you into revealing details about your family.

Check this out:
https://twitter.com/KariSperring/status/347053440779816960

Maybe they're trying to get you to slip up and tell them your wife's name, your location, etc. so they can sick the State on you for "hate speech" prosecution, deportation, or worse threats?

I know you're smart, but be careful please.

Anonymous Josh June 19, 2013 9:51 AM  

Ya know...even if Vox did something like release a photo of him with SB...or even a video....the rabbits would just say that the woman in the photo or video was someone Vox hired.

Anonymous Idle Spectator June 19, 2013 10:10 AM  

That's an... odd... definition of "good" you have there.

Turn that frown up-side-down.

I agree. It may not be a live reenactment of Mad Max, but I don't consider 'Mega-deaths', to be out of the question either.

Better get your running legs on.

Anonymous SWW June 19, 2013 10:15 AM  

"....the rabbits would just say that the woman in the photo or video was someone Vox hired..."

Nah, just Photoshopped...

Anonymous Will Best June 19, 2013 10:25 AM  

You are correct on analysis, much as in public schools there is inflation. Presently,

strong buy means buy
buy means hold
hold means sell
sell means run for the fucking doors

While I generally just keep to index funds, I will hold about 5-6 "bets" at any given time. And I have a fair amount of success choosing companies that are on solid footing and the talking heads seem to be ignoring.

Blogger James Dixon June 19, 2013 10:28 AM  

> While I generally just keep to index funds...

Wise beyond your years. :)

Likewise, most of our stock money is in index funds. Though we do have an increasing amount in individual stocks we've accumulated over the past 10 years or so. Like yours, these are largely in ignored companies or very small cap companies without much of a following.

Anonymous Josh June 19, 2013 10:40 AM  

 I would assume that there are probably 10 "buy" recommendations for every "sell" recommendation.

I'll never forget Cramer screaming into the TV that bear Stearns was going to be just fine and it was a buy, just a week before they went bankrupt.

Anonymous Luke June 19, 2013 10:52 AM  

Idle SpectatorJune 19, 2013 9:13 AM
"Everything is crumbling around us and in flux. It is like the Italian Renaissance again.


The internet is the new printing press.

The gatekeepers are crumbling and transforming one by one. Music, movies, television, radio, news media, academia, public schools, video games, magazines, newspapers, and books.

Christiandom is, once again, at war with Islam on a wide scale.

The NSA is watching everyone. That is similar to the "Mouths of Truth" statues they had set up in places around the Italian cities. Anonymous informants could make accusations against anyone. You would simply slip the complaint written on a piece of paper into the statue. No one is safe; not a judge, the president, or a businessman. Similar to the Italian Renaissance where even the pope was under threat.

The financial markets and political situation are getting so corrupt, it is about as corrupt as the Medici family in Italy.

The religious front is no better. Combine the Catholic Sex Scandal with the Protestant sects declining in strength and the Mormons with polygamy and Islam coming back along..."


Couple of failed fact checks:

1) The LIBERAL Protestant denominations are declining in member numbers. However, the conservative ones have if anything often much higher growth rates than do the Catholics.

http://philontheprairie.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/denominational-growth.jpg

http://eclecticchristian.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/membershiptrends.gif

http://hirr.hartsem.edu/images/denomchange.jpg


2) There are plenty of valid theological reasons for a Christian to revile Mormon doctrine and practices. However, current widespread polygamy is not one of them. Only throwback types (to pre-1900) openly do this. By way of contrast, not only Muslims, but also (if de facto and largely short - to medium-term only) nonChristian black males and many professional athletes, the most popular male musicians, even some male politicians effectively engage in this.

3) Yes, Islam is still growing -- for now. However, it is rapidly heading towards the stage being set for its demographic collapse, with Iran, Turkey, and Singapore in particular showing current births reminiscent of Greece and Italy.

Source: "How Civilizations Die (And Why Islam Is Dying Too)" by David P. Goldman aka "Spengler"

Anonymous Luke June 19, 2013 10:57 AM  

Idle SpectatorJune 19, 2013 10:10 AM

"I agree. It may not be a live reenactment of Mad Max, but I don't consider 'Mega-deaths', to be out of the question either."

"Better get your running legs on."

Better yet IMO is to ahead of time get the heck OUT of both major cities AND states with high percentages or large numbers of gibsmedats nearby. Montana, Idaho, etc. are the places to be in the U.S. IMO. You have been warned...

Anonymous Outlaw X June 19, 2013 11:01 AM  

Better get your running legs on.

I ain't going anywhere.

Anonymous Outlaw X June 19, 2013 11:06 AM  

Better yet IMO is to ahead of time get the heck OUT of both major cities AND states with high percentages or large numbers of gibsmedats nearby. Montana, Idaho, etc. are the places to be in the U.S. IMO. You have been warned...

I am not getting on the road, I am not a dumbass. Stay off the damn roads... you have been warned...

Anonymous NWerner June 19, 2013 11:07 AM  

Whatever you do, don't come to Idaho. Idaho's full.

If you want space, head over to Utah. Lot's of space there.

Anonymous Outlaw X June 19, 2013 11:19 AM  

Whatever you do, don't come to Idaho. Idaho's full.

I luv it! Whatever you do don't come to Texas, Texas is full, go to Utah.

Anonymous Outlaw X June 19, 2013 11:24 AM  

Ok, we will take Clay, other than that no vacancies.

Blogger The Deuce June 19, 2013 11:25 AM  

VD:

No worries, it has now been proven she doesn't even exist.

I was thinking of offering him a hint of where "corroborating evidence" could be found, but no, it's funnier to let him keep on going this way.

Blogger Nate June 19, 2013 11:26 AM  

"I am not getting on the road, I am not a dumbass. Stay off the damn roads... you have been warned..."

You folks thinking its going mad max are simply wrong. Africa isn't mad max. North America isn't gonna be either.

The cities will be something akin to Escape from New York.. but that's the end of it.

Anonymous Outlaw X June 19, 2013 11:32 AM  

You folks thinking its going mad max are simply wrong. Africa isn't mad max. North America isn't gonna be either.


I don't disagree Nate it will be checkpoint MAX. Pile all your stuff up in a trailer and run to a place where no one knows you or gives a damn about you. That is real smart while being stopped and checked every 100 miles and you will have nothing left. Shelter in place or die. Unless I am misunderstanding your meaning. Sometimes you talk over my head.

Anonymous aviendha June 19, 2013 11:37 AM  

And here I always thought spacebunny was Vox with a wig...way to burst my bubble.

Anonymous Idle Spectator June 19, 2013 11:38 AM  

Let me fail your failure turning me into a win and fact checked your fact check leading to me being the factual-finale.

Couple of failed fact checks:

1) The LIBERAL Protestant denominations are declining in member numbers. However, the conservative ones have if anything often much higher growth rates than do the Catholics.

http://philontheprairie.files.wordpress.com/2011/03/denominational-growth.jpg

http://eclecticchristian.files.wordpress.com/2009/04/membershiptrends.gif

http://hirr.hartsem.edu/images/denomchange.jpg


The problem is this is not enough to offset the Protestant church decline. This is the Churchianity vs. Christianity thing. They identify as Christian without actually attending church.

Plus,
The first link: the increases at the top five don't offset the bottom nine.
The second link: 1968 shows slightly more total than in 2004, even with the exchange of lines.
The third link: Like the first.

Overall, this shows it being more concentrated in a smaller population segment rather than general culture. That reflects a lot of change where everyone used to be Protestant and being Catholic or Mormon was considered weird.

2) There are plenty of valid theological reasons for a Christian to revile Mormon doctrine and practices. However, current widespread polygamy is not one of them. Only throwback types (to pre-1900) openly do this. By way of contrast, not only Muslims, but also (if de facto and largely short - to medium-term only) nonChristian black males and many professional athletes, the most popular male musicians, even some male politicians effectively engage in this.

I said Mormons with polygamy, not Mormons are the polygamists. The reason I mentioned Mormons is they have a lot of children (increasing demographics) and Mittens was a presidential candidate. They are very high profile now, and they are trying to open Utah up. The polygamy legal cases are pending due to gay marriage. So that ties both into the religion and family structure I mentioned.

It is 1896 to be precise, when Utah became a state. The only "Mormons" that still practice polygamy (Celestial Marriage) are the Fundamentalist LDS and some other early off-shoots, which are not considered Mormons-proper and are actually excommunicated from the mainline church.

They are going to have to deal with Islamic polygamy as well. That ties into immigration, religion, and the family structure. Also it is polygamy vs. harems. That ties into the two poles and alternate structures I mentioned popping up.

3) Yes, Islam is still growing -- for now. However, it is rapidly heading towards the stage being set for its demographic collapse, with Iran, Turkey, and Singapore in particular showing current births reminiscent of Greece and Italy.

Let me be more specific about my point. I mean Islam is coming along in the US and the West, i.e. in Europe and Syrians being relocated in the US. This ties into both immigration and religion. It may very well collapse back. Also, Islamic immigrants in Europe may very well piss them off so much they might just decide to kick them all out, i.e. Greece and Golden Dawn.

Blogger Nate June 19, 2013 11:41 AM  

" That is real smart while being stopped and checked every 100 miles and you will have nothing left. Shelter in place or die. "

I don't think it will come to that either. Folks aren't gonna tolerate that shit.

You'll see a lot of shelter in place... community type rally points... and after a little while... they will stop putting up with the checkpoint shit in their areas. They'll just kill the bastards or run them off.

My advice is... if you're gonna leave... you should have plans to be out in a matter of hours... and by out.. I mean out.

Anonymous Outlaw X June 19, 2013 11:54 AM  

You'll see a lot of shelter in place... community type rally points... and after a little while... they will stop putting up with the checkpoint shit in their areas. They'll just kill the bastards or run them off.

Personally Nate I will welcome the checkpoints. Keep the Yankee bastards out. I might go help them if I were capable.

I already wish there were check points at the State line right now. I am sick of the bastards.

I know that isn't reality, but those f'ers come down here in their fancy cars, bloated debt and gun hating piss ants.

Texas Bermuda triangle should be invented to scare them jackasses off.

Anonymous Dan in Tx June 19, 2013 12:34 PM  

Outlaw, I hope by "Yankees" you are including Californians. Yes, I'm with you. I think a border fence on Texas' northern border is a HIGHER priority than one on our southern border.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben June 19, 2013 1:12 PM  

I received a mailer from a company that touted Tobin Smith as the reason to buy their stock.

Never liked Tobin Smith. He seemed to me the type that would snort coke during commercial breaks at Fox.

Anonymous RedJack June 19, 2013 3:33 PM  

Outlaw.
Just remember Nebraska has cougars and snakes. Tell the Cali's that and send them to New York or something.

Blogger James Dixon June 19, 2013 5:30 PM  

Oh, and in possibly related news, the Dow drops 200+ as Bernanke says the gravy train may be coming to an end:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/markets/2013/06/19/stocks-wednesday/2437101/

Anonymous Outlaw X June 19, 2013 5:52 PM  

Dan in TX

Watch this. Never laughed this hard.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=F9gtV-rSyEc#!

Anonymous liljoe June 19, 2013 7:34 PM  

"Bernanke says the gravy train may be coming to an end"

according to the minutes, only if the economy continues to "improve"?? will easing be "scaled down". Interpretation: "KEEP THE PRESSES GOING! F the dollar and keep the bankers and the wall street casino going...good for them. Watch out when we lose world reserve currency status though.

Blogger Nate June 19, 2013 10:24 PM  

"Personally Nate I will welcome the checkpoints. Keep the Yankee bastards out. I might go help them if I were capable."

Depends on who is running the checkpoints and how. If it is interfering with in-group folks... it ain't gonna be tolerated.

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