Mailvox: a case for the Singularity

James Miller, an econ professor at Smith and the author of Singularity Rising, asked if he could present his case for the future likelihood of a Singularity. Or, as the Original Cyberpunk has described it, "the rapture of the nerds". Since this is a place where we are always pleased to give both space and genuine consideration to diverse points of view, I readily agreed to his request.

I define a Singularity as a threshold of time at which AIs at least as smart as humans and/or augmented human intelligence radically remake civilization. 

1.  Rocks exist!
Strange as it seems, the existence of rocks actually provides us with evidence that it should be possible to build computers powerful enough to take us to a Singularity.  There are around ten trillion, trillion atoms in a one-kilogram rock, and as inventor and leading Singularity scholar Ray Kurzweil writes: “Despite the apparent solidity of the object, the atoms are all in motion, sharing electrons back and forth, changing particle spins, and generating rapidly moving electromagnetic fields.  All of this activity represents computation, even if not very meaningfully organized.”

If the particles in the rock were organized in a more “purposeful manner” it would be possible to create a computer trillions of times more computationally powerful than all the human brains on earth combined.   Our eventual capacity to accomplish this is established by our second fact. 

2.  Biological cells exist!
The human body makes use of tiny biological machines to create and repair cells.  Once mankind masters this nanotechnology we will be able to cheaply create powerful molecular computers.  Our third fact proves that these computers could be turned into general purpose thinking machines. 

3.  Human brains exist!
Suppose this book claimed that scientists would soon build a human teleportation device.  Given that many past predictions of scientific miracles—such as cheap fusion power, flying cars or a cure for cancer—have come up short, you would rightly be suspicious of my teleportation prediction.  But my credibility would jump if I discovered a species of apes that had the inborn ability to instantly transport themselves across great distances.

In some alternate universe that had different laws of physics, it’s perfectly possible that intelligent machines couldn’t be created.  But human brains provide absolute proof that our universe allows the construction of intelligent, self-aware machines.   And, because the brain exists already, scientists can probe, dissect, scan and interrogate it.  We’re even beginning to understand the brain’s DNA and protein-based ‘source code’.  Also, many of the tools used to study the brain have been becoming exponentially more powerful, which explains why engineers might be only a couple of decades away from building a working digital model of the brain even though today we seem far from understanding all of the brains operations.  Would-be creators of AI are already using neuroscience research to help them create machine learning software.   Our fourth fact shows the fantastic potential of AI. 

4.  Albert Einstein existed!

It’s extremely unlikely that the chaotic forces of evolution just happened to stumble on the best possible recipe for intelligence when they created our brains, especially since our brains have many constraints imposed on them by biology: they must run on energy obtained from mere food; must fit in a small space; and can’t use useful materials such as metals and plastics, that engineers employ all the time.

But even if people such as Albert Einstein had close to the highest possible level of intelligence allowed by the laws of physics, creating a few million people or machines possessing this man’s brain power would still change the world far more than the industrial revolution. We share about 98% of our genes with some primates, but that 2% difference was enough to produce creatures that can assemble spaceships, sequence genes, and build hydrogen bombs.   What happens when mankind takes its next step, and births lifeforms who have a 2% genetic distance from us?  

5.  If we were smarter, we would be smarter!

Becoming smarter enhances our ability to do everything, including our ability to figure out ways of becoming even smarter because our intelligence is a reflective superpower able to turn on itself to decipher its own workings.  Consider, for example, a college student taking a focus-improving drug such as Adderall, Ritalin or Provigil, to help learn genetics.  After graduation, this student might get a job researching the genetic basis of human intelligence, and her work might assist pharmaceutical companies in making better cognitive enhancing drugs that will help future students acquire an even deeper understanding of genetics.  Smarter scientists could invent ways of making even smarter scientists who could in turn… Now, throw the power of machine intelligence into this positive feedback loop and we will end up at technological heights beyond our imagination.  

I hereby recuse myself from the position of critic, mostly since my position on the concept can be best described as "mild, but curious skepticism". But everyone should feel free to either express their doubts or offer additional arguments to bolster Prof. Miller's case.