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Wednesday, August 06, 2014

4GW and Gaza II

First, I will note that the IDF estimates concerning the difficulty of conquering and de-militarizing Gaza were not dissimilar to my own observations:
The Cabinet was reportedly shown a presentation in the course of the war, outlining the IDF's prediction of what taking control of Gaza would involve. According to the military's estimates, conquering Gaza would take months and ridding it of all weapons would take five years. The cost would be hundreds of soldiers killed and 10 billion shekels.
That's why the Hama model, where speed is of the essence, was never a serious option for Israel. That leaves the de-escalation model. The problem? How to de-escalate with a seemingly implacable enemy mixed in amongst a hostile population.
  1. Stop providing the non-combatants with more reasons to fight. I don't know the exact ratio, but every single time a civilian is killed, that generates between one and ten new enemy combatants. Israel says it has killed 453 Hamas militants out of 1,498 Palestinian fatalities; that ratio means it is almost certainly creating more future combatants than it is killing current ones. That means no more airstrikes or artillery. They are counterproductive.
  2. Outsource the occupation. Egypt desperately needs food and money, and it has no shortage of Arab soldiers who are not in the least bit sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood or Hamas. That's where some of those 10 billion shekels should be spent. Establish a number of outposts with well-paid Egyptian soldiers to provide basic policing and human intelligence. Support those outposts with rapid response IDF teams who will go in at night to act on the operable intelligence gathered in a manner essentially invisible to the local population. Immediately send those soldiers who are corrupt or show an inclination for violence, indiscipline, or being subverted back to Egypt and a big reduction in pay.
  3. Flood the civilian population with food and consumer goods, preferably distributed by the Egyptians and Fatah.
  4. Bring the civilian wounded to Israeli hospitals, give them first-rate care, and financially compensate the families of all civilian casualties.
  5. End the siege. Yes, Hamas will claim victory. See #7.
  6. Convince Egypt to accept small groups of families of those who are working with them the right to settle in an area of Egypt for which Israel will pay for the development. Deputy Speaker Feiglin wants to build another Jaffa, and his instincts are right, but it cannot be within Gaza itself. A place of refuge from Hamas will be needed, and it must be outside Israel. Protect it with Iron Dome.
  7. Ignore the militants. Don't seek to talk to them, don't pay any attention to their ceasefires or requests, don't complain about their actions, and don't respond to their PR salvos. The war at the moral level is won by actions, not words.
Remember, the idea of the de-escalation model is not to defeat the enemy, but rather to convince the bulk of the population it has no reason to fight and thereby isolate the militants, who can then be gradually picked off and made weaker over time. Due to the Israeli-Arab issue, the IDF probably can't ever hope to win over the population by itself, but its Arab proxies could reasonably expect to do so. Israel probably can't ever "win" in the medium term without resorting to measures the world would deem absolutely unacceptable, but it can hope to achieve relative safety and security for both sides.

It may sound counterintuitive, but Israel cannot achieve this relative peace as long as it is unwilling to accept more casualties than it causes. There are admittedly numerous flaws with this plan, chief among them the ability of the Egyptian soldiers to remain calm and disciplined in the face of the inevitable provocation. But it is much more likely to lead to success than the futile 2GW pound-and-ground approach.

Because 4GW is a process that resists conclusive engagements, 4GW counterinsurgency tactics must accept that reality and abandon any notion of seeking them. Such efforts are not only doomed to failure, but will usually make the situation worse in the long term. 4GW is based on the death-by-a-thousand-cuts model, so the correct way to fight back is to increase your ability to cut the other guy while reducing his ability to cut you.

Anyhow, those are just some thoughts from a complete military non-expert. And I think that's enough about Zion for the time being. It's time to turn our attention to the more serious conflict brewing in Eastern Europe.

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168 Comments:

Anonymous Stg58/Animal Mother August 06, 2014 9:11 AM  

Eastern Europe is a much more serious "Great Powers" scenario. As for Israel v Gaza...we'll always have Paris.

Anonymous Josh August 06, 2014 9:14 AM  

Flood the civilian population with food and consumer goods, preferably distributed by the Egyptians and Fatah.

And this is why the continued blockade of Gaza is so stupid.

Angry, hungry, desperate people ATE much more likely to join Hamas than fat, lazy, and entertained people.

Anonymous Josh August 06, 2014 9:17 AM  

As for Israel v Gaza...we'll always have Paris.

Here's looking at you, kid

Blogger Dominic Saltarelli August 06, 2014 9:18 AM  

Because supreme excellence lies in breaking the enemy's will without fighting.

Anonymous Stilicho August 06, 2014 9:25 AM  

Outsource the occupation. Egypt desperately needs food and money, and it has no shortage of Arab soldiers who are not in the least bit sympathetic to the Muslim Brotherhood or Hamas. Establish a number of outposts with Egyptian soldiers to provide basic policing and human intelligence. Support those outposts with rapid response IDF teams who will go in at night to act on the operable intelligence gathered in a manner essentially invisible to the local population.

I agree with your line of think in general here, but #2 is essential and the hardest to achieve. Egypt is understandably leery of getting involved in Gaza. The Gazans were Egyptians within recent memory and Egypt has its own problems with the Ikhwan without borrowing trouble that they view as being created by and belonging to Israel. So the trick will be to provide sufficient enticement. I do not think Israel has the chops to do it on its own, so that would likely mean U.S. involvement which is unlikely given that the current administration views the current Egyptian government more or less as an illegitimate successor to the Obama administration's successful anti-Mubarak, pro Ikhwan coup.

Anonymous zen0 August 06, 2014 9:26 AM  

@ Josh

And this is why the continued blockade of Gaza is so stupid.

From what I understand, the blockade is for armanents only. The people in Gaza are probably more well off than the ones in Egypt.

Israel ships humanitarian aid to Gaza constantly, plus supplies the place with electricity.

Blogger Glen Filthie August 06, 2014 9:28 AM  

Hmpfff. Sounds like the ol' "win their hearts and their minds will follow" BS that failed so spectacularly in Viet Nam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

I think they should just stay focused and cool. Putin doesn't care what America's gay hipsters and greasy hippies and leftists think...nor should Israel.

Anonymous zen0 August 06, 2014 9:35 AM  

Also from the article:

This scenario, said to have been put before the security cabinet last week in the debate on tactics for the next phase of the operation, would have cost hundreds of lives of Israel soldiers and led to a five-year Israeli occupation for purging the territory of 20,000 terrorists and disabling their military machine.
This scenario was dreamed up to silence the malcontents, including citizens living within close range of the Gaza Strip, who were refusing to return home because the danger had not passed.

The alternatives which the cabinet considered never included full occupation of the Gaza Strip. The most serious option, which the ministers examined and rejected in the first week of the war, was to send troops in for a lightening strike to destroy Hamas’ command centers and core military structure and get out fast. Had that option been pursued at an early stage in the conflict, instead of ten days of air strikes, it might have saved heavy Palestinian losses and property devastation, the extent of which troubles most Israelis too.


What would be wrong with the second "lightning strike - in and out" option?

Anonymous Josh August 06, 2014 9:38 AM  

From what I understand, the blockade is for armanents only. The people in Gaza are probably more well off than the ones in Egypt.

Israel ships humanitarian aid to Gaza constantly, plus supplies the place with electricity.


And yet the weapons are still getting through. And 80% of Gaza receives food distribution from the UN. And the blockade has almost completely destroyed Gaza's export market.

And if they can't produce their own power, how can they rebuild an industrial base?

Anonymous Josh August 06, 2014 9:39 AM  

What would be wrong with the second "lightning strike - in and out" option?

I think that's part of the Hama option.

Anonymous zen0 August 06, 2014 9:47 AM  

And if they can't produce their own power, how can they rebuild an industrial base?

Use the money they spend on armaments and tunnels? ( they aren't paying for the electricity, either.)

As far as exports, 89% of Palestinian exports go to Israel, and Israel facilitates the building of industrial infrastructure in partnership with other countries.

Anonymous PhillipGeorge(c)2014 August 06, 2014 9:50 AM  

Just bulldoze the dome of the rock/ while fully locked and loaded. Jets manned, hatches open.
If Israel isn't proud of its culture they might as well move on from it - a secular Israel deserves ankle biters/ sheep dogs/ locusts - whatever.

Temples to a pagan moon god will only cause headaches. Step One - finsih Moshe Dayan's unfinished works.

In shallah, means 'allah willing'. Obviously if Israel has the balls and the bull dozers "allah must have been willing". It's logic.

Anonymous Roundtine August 06, 2014 9:52 AM  

So the trick will be to provide sufficient enticement.

Egypt badly needs food and money. Not just to calm the populace, they will go broke and starve (i.e. go begging to the US, Russia or Gulf States) if food prices shoot up again.

Anonymous ck August 06, 2014 10:14 AM  

"That means no more airstrikes or artillery. They are counterproductive."

2GW infantries - like the US Army & Israel - have become totally co-dependent on indirect fire (i.e. artie, mortars, air strikes, naval gunfire). 2GW infantries lack the capability - and imagination - to maneuver in hostile territories, partly because they are afraid of their own casualties. A good case in point was the failed battle of Tora Bora in Afghanistan where the US Army relied on indirect fire and the use of easily bribed locals to do the fight instead of fixing bayonets and fishing out bin Laden by hand. The Israelis are doing the same in Gaza, and just making things worse. If the Israeli army was really interested in combating this Gaza tunnel situation, then it would be using its infantry with small arms and fixed bayonets, instead of riding around in tanks with that idiot Sean Hannity

Anonymous JI August 06, 2014 10:18 AM  

The Palestinians are stewing in their own juices in that heat. Just give them air conditioners and big gulps and they'll mellow out.

Blogger Nate August 06, 2014 10:27 AM  

meh.

I don't disagree that this would work in the long term. However I see no reason to wait that long. Take the gloves off. Deport ever person and blow up every building... house by house block by block. It will be over in a few months and forgotten in a few years.

Anonymous Anonymous August 06, 2014 10:29 AM  

A thought on #2: are the Egyptian Arab soldiers you're thinking of Muslim? If not, would they be accepted by the Palestinians well enough to be able to police them?

If they are Muslim, maybe they don't like Hamas very much, but put them together with a common enemy of Jews or Christians, and I'd be concerned that they'd quickly find common cause and start helping Hamas under cover of policing the people.

The lesson we're learning from many parts of the world is that, even in places where Muslims have been peaceful citizens for years, when they begin to feel like they're in control, you start getting gang-rapes and beheadings. And they don't go beheading other Muslims they don't like; they seek out infidels, like the Filipinos who were raped and killed recently in Lybia. (Why are there 13,000 Filipinos in Lybia, most of them surely Catholic, some of them young nurses? I have no idea.) It might be wishful thinking to think that one group of Muslims would police another group for long when there are handy infidels to gang up on nearby.

Anonymous Curtis August 06, 2014 10:29 AM  

I believe you have made some errors in thinking that arabs/palestinians are like you or me. They're not which is something you see every day in Iraq. We spent 10s of billions of dollars on industrial projects to win the hearts and minds of the muslims. Unfortunately all arabs will always put pleasure before business and they won't leave off killing each other for any kind of reason you can invent.

1. The most precious commodity any Israeli government has or ever will have is the lives of its soldiers and its people. They cannot abandon the stand-off weapon superiority that keeps their casualties to the absolute minimum. Kind of like the US in that regard.

2 The only two things keeping Egypt near solvent is the billions in direct aid it gets every other month from Saudi Arabia and Qatar. Recall who is funding Hamas? The other unfortunate truth is Egyptian soldiers are essentially worthless. They are treated like dirt by their officers and it shows. All Egypt has institutionalized corruption at every level. How many green on blue attacks should Israel have to soak up?

3 Gaza is awash with food and consumer goods thanks to UNWRA and the US.

4 I believe that they treat anybody that can make it to hospital in Israel. The problem of course, is that the Palestinians instantly figured out a unique way of smuggling bombs, explosives, weapons and terrorists into Israel, through the security check points, by using ambulances allegedly on 'humanitarian' missions.

5 No more concessions without reciprocity. The conditions required to achieve and end to the siege are well known to everybody. All hamas has to do to lift the siege is stop attacking Israel. Since it's every terrorist with his own foreign policy over there, they quite literally cannot bring an end to the violence since some jackass is always going to keep killing and shooting rockets. Look at the damned IRA and PIRA.

6 No other Middle East country will accept Palestinians anymore and many have driven them out because they have that little character flaw that insists that everything good be converted to making war Palestinian's enemies and damn the cost to the society that welcomed them in as refugees. Look at Kuwait and their wild enthusiasm for Saddam when Iraq invaded. That was unrivaled stupidity.

7 I agree with this one but it is out of the hands of the Israeli government because our State Department and media are stuffed with people who demand that Israel make concessions and trade with militants for peace. If they ignore us entirely, the support they get from Congress dries up. It's a bit of a cleft stick.

History is replete with the successful crushing of insurgencies and terrorism. Assad used to be a master of it as was King Hussein and Saddam.

Golda Meier captured the essence of the solution when she said, Peace will come when the arabs love their children more than they hate us." I think Egypt and Jordan reached that point decades ago and both have demonstrated a willingness to abide in peace with their neighbor. Me? I give a lot of credence to the rumors that swirled around last year that said Israel and Saudi Arabia were negotiating a way to let an IDF strike force fly through the Kingdom and even refuel there in order to destroy nuclear facilities in Iran. The downside to that though is, can you imagine coming off the strike, flying over the Gulf unarmed, almost out of fuel and dropping into an air base in Saudi Arabia to refuel? Yeah, me neither. Someone would observe that this kind of opportunity to destroy the Israeli Air Force will never come again, and shoot them down on approach.

Anonymous Mike M. August 06, 2014 10:33 AM  

#2 is a very interesting idea - frankly, I thought that approach would have solved a lot of issues in Afghanistan and Iraq (hiring Afghans to pacify Iraq, and Iraqis to pacify Afghanistan).

#6? Tricky - as I have long suspected that one solution to the Palestinian issue was to BUY the Sinai from Egypt (thereby having clear title) and set the Palestinians up there. With modern irrigation, it should be reasonably prosperous.

Anonymous ck August 06, 2014 10:35 AM  

"Deport ever person and blow up every building... house by house block by block. It will be over in a few months and forgotten in a few years."

You guys way overestimate how easy this is to do. Never, never put your enemy into complete desperation like that, you may end up losing.

Anonymous Stilicho August 06, 2014 10:35 AM  

A thought on #2: are the Egyptian Arab soldiers you're thinking of Muslim? If not, would they be accepted by the Palestinians well enough to be able to police them?

Yes.

If they are Muslim, maybe they don't like Hamas very much, but put them together with a common enemy of Jews or Christians, and I'd be concerned that they'd quickly find common cause and start helping Hamas under cover of policing the people.

Hamas is closely related to the Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan) which is a mortal enemy of the Egyptian Army.

Anonymous ck August 06, 2014 10:38 AM  

Meanwhile in other 2GW state news:

"[A Snowden leaked NSA] document also identified Israel, along with North Korea, Cuba and India, as a 'leading threat' to the infrastructure of U.S. financial and banking institutions."

http://www.newsweek.com/israel-flagged-top-spy-threat-us-new-snowdennsa-document-262991?utm_content=buffera2144&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Anonymous DrTorch August 06, 2014 10:44 AM  

Can Israel really trust the Egyptians to do what they pay them to do?

You pointed out that Israel covertly paid Hamas at one time, in large part to undermine the PLO. Who's to say that the Egyptian soldiers won't eventually be co-opted in that way?

And in the late 1990s and early 2000s Israel did let Palestinians into their hospitals (IIRC), but the Palestinians were readily stirred up to hatred and violence.

Anonymous dh August 06, 2014 10:45 AM  

Interestingly, this is very close to the scenario that Tom Clancy theorized to solve the conflict back in the 1990's. Can't remember the book, but he had essentially a transnational caliphate enforced on the Gaza Strip by foreign forces.

Blogger Nate August 06, 2014 10:46 AM  

"You guys way overestimate how easy this is to do. Never, never put your enemy into complete desperation like that, you may end up losing."

You're so cute. This is what 2GW does best. And its what 4GW does worst. There would be fatalies of course... but losing? HA! please. no. Losing isn't even remotely in the cards. Its like saying the trees will stop the bulldozers because they are really desperate!

Blogger Nate August 06, 2014 10:47 AM  

"Can Israel really trust the Egyptians to do what they pay them to do?"

You can trust the Egyptian military. I wouldn't trust the Egyptian government or populace... but the military? yeah. To an extent.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 06, 2014 10:51 AM  

All very reasonable.

However, the material and genetic basis of human action implies that all traits are heritable, including aggressiveness. History shows that Jews are very well endowed with aggressiveness. (Usually implemented intellectually and verbally, as befits populations with very high verbal intelligence attacking less articulate, less cohesive, less strategic and more impulsive but much more numerous populations.) More by subversion by the sword, the children of Israel are inclined to go out with a high hand. Always were, always will be.

Israel can implement a strategy that's more subtly aggressive. Can it sustain a strategy that's less aggressive, one that ultimately aims at maintaining its security rather than at increasing its domination? I think that has to be considered doubtful.

Fortunately for the Jewish people, it doesn't matter. In two hundred, four hundred or eight hundred years they will be doing fine as always.

"And I think that's enough about Zion for the time being. It's time to turn our attention to the more serious conflict brewing in Eastern Europe."

Yup. That's where everything is up for grabs.

Anonymous Stilicho August 06, 2014 10:53 AM  

You're so cute. This is what 2GW does best. And its what 4GW does worst. There would be fatalies of course... but losing? HA! please. no. Losing isn't even remotely in the cards. Its like saying the trees will stop the bulldozers because they are really desperate!

True enough, but the will is lacking. Especially the will to deal with the consequences. Now, if the Israelis really wanted to undermine Hamas with a single, surgical strike that delivers the most bang for the buck, the target would be Turtle Bay.

Anonymous ck August 06, 2014 10:56 AM  

"Its like saying the trees will stop the bulldozers because they are really desperate!"

I hate to point out the obviously static nature of trees compared to a human enemy on his home turf. It's not like Israel could nuke Gaza, unless they don't care about Israel itself. And no, 2GW would not be effective at the task you propose, 3GW would bring better odds of success, which the Israelis completely lack.

And losing is very much a possibility if 2GW Israel over committed itself which I think is required by your plan, they would become very vulnerable from Hezzbolah in the north. There are more than two pieces to this puzzle.

Anonymous Josh August 06, 2014 11:06 AM  

You guys way overestimate how easy this is to do. Never, never put your enemy into complete desperation like that, you may end up losing.

Was it Sun Tzu or Clausewitz who said to always give your enemy a path to retreat?

Also, a big problem with Israel obliterating Gaza is the west bank, which has been relatively pacified.

Blogger Nate August 06, 2014 11:09 AM  

"I hate to point out the obviously static nature of trees compared to a human enemy on his home turf. It's not like Israel could nuke Gaza, unless they don't care about Israel itself. And no, 2GW would not be effective at the task you propose, 3GW would bring better odds of success, which the Israelis completely lack. "

You're greatly over estimating the power availabe to both Hamas and Hezzbolah. The evidence is obvious enough. If Hamas was even remotely as capable as the alarmists have been claiming... there would've been a lot more than just 68 deaths.

68 deaths? In an invasion? That's literally nothing. The only reason anyone is even talking about it is the Harvard Mentality of "its more than last time!" Hamas is surrounded. Literally. Its pinned against the sea. There is literally no where for it go, and it cannot stand and fight. If it COULD stand and fight... it wouldn't be using 4G tactics to begin with.

my plan would require no more commitment than what has already been committed. in fact it may require less. I haven't heard anything about Hezzbolah attacking from the north so far.

The only thing my plan requires that the Israelis don't seem to have.. is Will.

Anonymous Josh August 06, 2014 11:10 AM  

Interestingly, this is very close to the scenario that Tom Clancy theorized to solve the conflict back in the 1990's. Can't remember the book, but he had essentially a transnational caliphate enforced on the Gaza Strip by foreign forces.

Sum of All Fears, and it was Jerusalem, not Gaza, that was governed by a troika of Christian, Muslim, and Jewish religious leaders. With a detachment of Swiss troops as security forces.

Anonymous VD August 06, 2014 11:12 AM  

Hmpfff. Sounds like the ol' "win their hearts and their minds will follow" BS that failed so spectacularly in Viet Nam, Iraq and Afghanistan.

That's because you're both stupid and ignorant. It has nothing to do with hearts and minds, in fact, 4GW expressly states that hearts and minds cannot and will not be won. To the contrary, it recognizes that there is a continuum of opposition, which at a certain point goes from passive opposition to active opposition.

4GW is about maximizing the passive opposition and minimizing the active opposition. Only a complete idiot would deny that there are both types of opposition, or that people move from one to the other in response to the other side's actions.

Anonymous ck August 06, 2014 11:13 AM  

"Was it Sun Tzu or Clausewitz who said to always give your enemy a path to retreat?"

Sun Tzu.

Anonymous The other skeptic August 06, 2014 11:14 AM  

[A Snowden leaked NSA] document also identified Israel, along with North Korea, Cuba and India, as a 'leading threat' to the infrastructure of U.S. financial and banking institutions.

Nope. It's Global Warming that's gonna do it!

Anything bad is caused by Global Warming: Snow, Floods, Droughts, Homophobia etc.

Blogger swiftfoxmark2 August 06, 2014 11:16 AM  

None of this will actually be implemented. The Israelis are hell-bent on complete and utter genocide.

On the flip side, they no longer get to play the Nazi card.

Anonymous VD August 06, 2014 11:24 AM  

This is what 2GW does best. And its what 4GW does worst. There would be fatalies of course... but losing? HA! please. no. Losing isn't even remotely in the cards. Its like saying the trees will stop the bulldozers because they are really desperate!

Israel isn't willing to pay the price. The risk of re-militarizing the West Bank and taking thousands of casualties across Europe is far too high. Gaza isn't that serious a problem for it to be worth the potential price.

Those riots in Paris and elsewhere were a warning. And the IDF can't defend anyone in Europe or the USA.

Anonymous Anonymous August 06, 2014 11:29 AM  

Hamas is closely related to the Muslim Brotherhood (Ikhwan) which is a mortal enemy of the Egyptian Army.

"Mortal enemy" is a relative term, though. We see that in American politics, where groups that can't stand each other band together to attack white Christian America whenever they get a chance. Republicans promote black "conservatives" in hopes that they'll have a positive effect on the black underclass, but the effect usually seems to go the other direction.

We talk a lot here about the strength of racial/ethnic ties. No matter how much two groups of Arab Muslims may hate each other for recent transgressions or doctrinal differences, their racial ties, their common hatred for the infidels they consider sub-human, and their shared resentment over past defeats go back for centuries. A common enemy might be just the thing to bring them together.

Blogger Nate August 06, 2014 11:30 AM  

'Those riots in Paris and elsewhere were a warning. And the IDF can't defend anyone in Europe or the USA."

Agree.

but again... why should israel care what one french citizen does to another? aren't french riots a french problem?

Blogger Nate August 06, 2014 11:31 AM  

"The Israelis are hell-bent on complete and utter genocide."

have you ever lived next to palestinians? There is a reason no one in the world wants them.

Anonymous Josh August 06, 2014 11:36 AM  

but again... why should israel care what one french citizen does to another? aren't french riots a french problem?

Because they consider them to be potential Israelis.

Call it pan-Jewish.

Anonymous VD August 06, 2014 11:37 AM  

why should israel care what one french citizen does to another? aren't french riots a french problem?

Touche....

Anonymous ck August 06, 2014 11:39 AM  

"but again... why should israel care what one french citizen does to another? aren't french riots a french problem?"

Kind of a NATO problem, of which the US has a formal treaty. It would not be wise for the Israelis to further alienate the French, other Europeans, or the US. Beyond some guilt imposed special relationship, there is no formal treaty between the US and Israel.

Anonymous VD August 06, 2014 11:42 AM  

A common enemy might be just the thing to bring them together.

Not in this case. The Ilkhwan is playing for Egypt. Gaza is very, very minor thing in comparison. I suspect the Egyptian military government would leap at any such deal that would potentially bring in tens of millions of dollars.

Anonymous Josh August 06, 2014 11:43 AM  

Do the Israeli ilk care about the riots in France and potential for thousands of dead French Jews?

Blogger ScuzzaMan August 06, 2014 11:49 AM  

I think you are overlooking the fact that neither Egypt's nor Israel's sponsor (who just happens to be the same thugs, the USA) wants this conflict to end.

The people running the US Empire profit from prolonged bloody conflict. Their "security services" foster and perpetuate such conflicts wherever they go.

Resolution, aka "peace", means an end to the money flows, the power grabs, and the unearned high life.

Your plan is sound except for one tiny flaw: it is simply not in the interests of the USA or Israeli governments, as those interests are defined by the ruling oligarchs, the banksters and the war profiteers.

Anonymous 11B August 06, 2014 11:49 AM  

According to the military's estimates, conquering Gaza would take months and ridding it of all weapons would take five years. The cost would be hundreds of soldiers killed and 10 billion shekels.

Given how three weeks of the current operation has stressed their stockpiles and finances, I believe 'months' and 'five' years of such action would essentially have to become a line item in the US DoD's budget. Oh well, what's another few billion between friends.

Meanwhile at the southern border....

Anonymous Maximo Macaroni August 06, 2014 11:50 AM  

This plan sounds just like what the Israelis have been doing for decades. Hasn't worked. The Gazans have free food, free water, free electricity, free first-world medical care, and still want the destruction of Israel. Sort of like how ghetto residents still want to steal and rob and overthrow the "system".

The Egyptian soldiers would be amazed at how well the Gazans live. But they'll still get out the prayer rugs and pray for the destruction of Israel. The idea of ignoring the Gazans would work if it were fully executed. But the Israelis care at least as much about maintaining their power over Western culture and finance as they do about killing Gazans. They see that power as essential to saving Israel. And they think to maintain that power they need to minimize civilian casualties and fight fair while their opponents wage all-out war.


When the pogroms start again, Israel will be flooded by people who care nothing about Muslim civilian casualties. And they won't care about the opinion of the outside world.

Anonymous Eric Ashley August 06, 2014 11:52 AM  

Don't know about Europe, but if the IDF implemented General Cassius Nateii's Plan for Permanent Pacification, there would be cheers from large sections of America, and shrugs from much of the rest, and outrage from the Usual Suspects who are angry that Gaia lets Israelis have oxygen. Bumper sticker sales sites on the web would do bumper crop business, and thats about it. Oh, yes, the corrupt PTB would sanction Israel and say a few mean words about it, but then the vast majority of America would tell the PTB to shut up.

Anonymous The other skeptic August 06, 2014 11:55 AM  

Let's hope riots don't break out in Shenzhen, China, because then the Israelis will have to care about Barack Obama's Half-Jewish Half Brother

Anonymous 11B August 06, 2014 12:03 PM  

Don't know about Europe, but if the IDF implemented General Cassius Nateii's Plan for Permanent Pacification,

If they could do it on their own shekel with their own equipment, and not require my country to intervene financially, militarily or politically via the UN, then by all means go for it. I am tired of Israel and its squabbles with her neighbors wasting too much of America's political discourse.

Somehow though I think any such plan would require a lot of assistance from us.

Meanwhile at our southern border...

Anonymous Anonymous August 06, 2014 12:07 PM  


So I read these suggestions, and some of them are excellent. It does appear to me that like many, they neglect the arab cultural mentality, especially the arab/muslim cultural mentality. Let me go through them.

1. Killing civilians generates new combatants: False. To the Arab, Killing makes you the strong horse and the group that dies is weak horse. Palestinians repeatedly say that no Israelis are civilians are all are valid targets. That is their mentality; similarly, all of their inhabitants are military tools too, whether it be used as human shields because the enemy will be a sucker for it, or as propaganda for Pallywood.
It's Westerners who think of Batman swearing revenge for his lost parents and becoming a superman. Those are our stories. We are the ones who swear revenge, work hard, and get even. Arab/Muslims knuckle under, so as to practice treachery from beneath and achieve sudden reversals as if by fate, insh'allah. It's their style, it's their religion, it's their culture.

2. Enlisting Egypt to do the dirty work and paying them for it is excellent. The problem is getting them to agree. For many years, Egypt stayed cold to such advances, and used Israel as a boogeyman to garner support. In recent years, Jews were big tourists in Egypt, especially in their popular resort town of Sharm el Sheikh, and this experience (and the money and jobs and relationships) was probably the best thing to happen for Egypt-Israel relations for a long time. But that all died with the Muslim Brotherhood takeover and will be some time returning.
To do this requires getting over fifty years of propaganda, so it's not easy, and others have pointed out other possible difficulties.

3. As mentioned, Gaza isn't hurting for consumer goods. They have plenty. But that leads into...

4. Bring civilian wounded to Israeli hospitals - already being done. And as has been pointed out, Hamas attempts to exploit it militarily.

Again, the arab cultural mentality is that when an enemy gives you a gift, it is tribute. It is your due, because you are superior to them. It is your jizya, although the idea is deeper than that muslim custome. Israel can't give the Palestinians anything because they will pocket it as they pocket all concessions in negotiations and then press for more.
Having the aid come through Fatah and Egypt is an okay dodge but not great. First, they can figure it out, and second, when allies give one another gifts in arab/muslim culture, they are also trying to establish dominance - the lord/liege relationship. Who gets to be the big sheik and who gets to be the trusted minion. Hamas leadership is unlikely to fall for that, because they already have people in that position - Iran, Qatar, etc.

Treating Palestinian civilian wounded is good for the Jews, however, It makes them feel good about themselves and contributes to their morale and support for the effort. Jews are dumb that way, I say as a jew.

5. yes, it's not going any further.

6. Great goal, not easy, hope it works out, where can I donate to the kickstarter?

7. Absolutely.

The thing that I would add to this is adding a quick, effective public, death penalty for terrorists. Complete with papier-mache terrorist heads and posters of the slain to be put up on the walls separating Israel and Gaza.
Arabs are used to Chop-Chop Square. It's their culture. It's what they understand. Executing criminals for criminal action makes you the strong horse. That's their motivation.


Anonymous Eric Ashley August 06, 2014 12:12 PM  

11B, again, why do you care about the UN? Really? I would think you would hold them in the most absolute contempt.

I think Scuzzaman and Maximo have the right of it. They explain Nate's 'lack of will'.

The southern border is not defended for roughly the same reason that Israel doesn't squash these death cultists. The PTB get something they want at the expense of the little people. The solution? Get libertarians to stop harrassing conservatives, which is slightly more likely than Peace in the Mideast.

But I agree that this whole arguement is pointless. We will be here again, five years, and ten years, and twenty years from now, should the Lord tarry. Rather talk about Eastern Europe.

Blogger pyrrhus August 06, 2014 12:13 PM  

Nice creative thinking VD. I think outsourcing the occupation is your best idea, along with flooding the area with iPhones, iPads, and sexting aps.

Anonymous David of One August 06, 2014 12:14 PM  

"The Israelis are hell-bent on complete and utter genocide."

Obviously not true ... much of Israel might desire it to end the BS and madness but if they were actually "hell bent on complete and utter genocide." they could easily facilitate that in very quick fashion. It would be done already.

Arab populations have openly/publicly called for the complete genocide of Israel and have constantly and overtly worked towards those ends ... it is obviously much of the Arab/Muslim world's stated and demonstrated intent that they are "hell-bent on complete and utter genocide".

It seems readily apparent that the United Nations is directly complicit in the genocide of Israel being that rockets and missiles aren't mysteriously stored at and launched from "UN Schools". Then there is no small matter of the UN returning the captured/discovered rockets and missiles back to the terrorists.

The number of mortar/rocket attacks against Israel since 2001 is 15,000+.

Anonymous Josh August 06, 2014 12:22 PM  

Gaza is very, very minor thing in comparison.

Gaza seems minor compared to everything else going on in the middle east. It's also minor compared to a potential conflict in the west bank.

Anonymous 11B August 06, 2014 12:28 PM  

11B, again, why do you care about the UN? Really? I would think you would hold them in the most absolute contempt.

I want to leave the UN, but that is crazy talk. We can't have that. But so long as we are in it, I don't want to take the negative political capital that accrues to us for often times being the Veto for Israel. And I imagine a big reason why the US will never leave the UN is precisely because we are the Veto for Israel.

The southern border is not defended for roughly the same reason that Israel doesn't squash these death cultists. The PTB get something they want at the expense of the little people. The solution? Get libertarians to stop harrassing conservatives, which is slightly more likely than Peace in the Mideast.

Well if I am going to have to bash heads with the PTB, I'd rather do it over the future of my nation than of Israel. I agree with some of what you write, but I don't think libertarians are the problem. They are too small in numbers and influence.

The real people harassing conservatives can be found in the media and the news talk shows, who are quick to silence any signs of life from the American core. Just watch them go into action over the Alabama Congressman's take on the 'War on Whites'. And I doubt more than a few are libertarians.

But I agree that this whole arguement is pointless. We will be here again, five years, and ten years, and twenty years from now, should the Lord tarry. Rather talk about Eastern Europe.

The Jews should have chosen a more favorable location for their homeland. Had they located in Central or South America, they'd have no issue with these muslims. Choosing to establish their homeland in the middle east because of ancient religious reasons might have been noble, but it was not well thought out. My grandparents had a beautiful home in Philadelphia, and I suppose, the grandchildren could have decided to return to our roots. Yet it doesn't take a genius to realize that since our grandparents lived their, the place has undergone demographic change and is no longer suitable for civilized people.

I am sure the middle east was pretty swell a couple thousand years ago. But since then there has been a whole lot of ghettofication in that area. Choosing to locate a homeland there was destined to be filled with problems. They are going to have problems with their 'dieverse' neighbors for as long as any of us on this blog are alive. It's too bad they put so much effort into it, but they really would have done better for themselves, and the USA, had they located elsewhere among more docile neighbors.

Anonymous Oy August 06, 2014 12:33 PM  

That's because you're both stupid and ignorant. It has nothing to do with hearts and minds, in fact, 4GW expressly states that hearts and minds cannot and will not be won.

The whole point of 4GW is to win hearts and minds in third countries. If everybody in the world was like me, and didn't give a shit how many Palestinians the Israelis killed, then all the Palestinian 4GW antics would be pointless, and the Israelis could kill their way to victory.

What keeps this war (and many others) going is that the Tranzis pay attention to it. If they minded their own damn business, wars would end and people would stop dying.

Anonymous Oy August 06, 2014 12:34 PM  

"The Israelis are hell-bent on complete and utter genocide."

Yeah that's why the Palestinian population has tripled since 1948.

Most Incompetent Genocide EVAH!

Anonymous Noah B. August 06, 2014 12:39 PM  

"Gaza seems minor compared to everything else going on in the middle east."

It sounds like if ISIS does take Mosul dam, they probably don't have the technical know-how to keep it from collapsing.

Blogger Mark Andrew Edwards August 06, 2014 12:41 PM  

Regarding your point #1: Just being Jews gives them their reason to fight. Hamas’ publically avowed goal is to wipe out Israel.

#2 is an interesting idea but if Egyptian soldiers are unsympathetic to Hamas, they’re ten times less inclined to help Jews. And suggesting Egyptian soldiers would co-operate with the Israelis is wishful thinking at best.

For point #3, why do you think this would help? How would these items get to the civilians as opposed ot winding up in Hamas or Fatah’s pockets? How much would this cost and how long do you do it? Is this going to cost 11 billion Sheckels?
#4 sure, ok. Though I don’t feel Israel owes reparations for casualties that come from a war. Things get broken, people die in war, that’s an incentive to stop killing Jews.

#5 is a bad idea.

For #6, how? How does Israel convince Egypt to do anything? Egypt has been denying Palestinians for decades. Why would they start now? I’m not even sure they’d publicly accept a container ship full of cash from Israel.

#7, it only takes one side to have a war. Ignore people who kidnap and murder your citizens? Really? Would you ignore someone who punched you in the face? Who punched your family? Doesn’t ignoring aggression invite more aggression when there’s no consequences for it?

You can't really disengage and de-escalate unless there are grounds to do so. Israel has entered into many land-for-peace deals. None of them work. I suspect that conquest and direct rule is the only way to resolve the issue and it will be bloody and long.

Blogger Shimshon August 06, 2014 12:52 PM  

Vox, this sounds like a sensible thing in theory. I don't see it working out in practice. There is no way Israel and Egypt would both acede to it.

Do you have a Plan B you would propose that has a more realistic chance of success?

Anonymous VD August 06, 2014 1:00 PM  

Regarding your point #1: Just being Jews gives them their reason to fight. Hamas’ publically avowed goal is to wipe out Israel.

My goodness, but you're stupid. Yes, everyone knows what Hamas's goal is. The whole point is that MOST PALESTINIANS IN GAZA ARE NOT WILLING TO FIGHT FOR HAMAS. The objective is to maximize the number of Palestinians who won't fight, and minimize the number who will.

I can't stress how much contempt I have for you idiots who simply can't resist trying to criticize without bothering to learn the first thing about the subject. Especially the morons who can't do better than repeat talking points from Fox News.

Anonymous DF August 06, 2014 1:04 PM  

@11B "The Jews ... located in Central or South America, they'd have no issue with these muslims... they really would have done better for themselves, and the USA, had they located elsewhere among more docile neighbors."

Central and South American Catholics docile? Towards Jews in a Jewish State in their midst? Too funny.

Anonymous VD August 06, 2014 1:07 PM  

Do you have a Plan B you would propose that has a more realistic chance of success?

Not really. As long as Israel wants to stick to 19th century tactics, it's going to continue to fail to secure its objectives. We already know al-Qaeda is studying 4GW; a copy of one of the core texts was found in Afghanistan and that Washington Post piece indicated that Hezbollah is already implementing its light infantry concepts.

I think you may be underestimating how desperate the Egyptian military is; the Muslim Brotherhood is a direct danger to them in a way Israel is not. But if Israel isn't willing to embrace next-generation military tactics, (and from hearing that van Creveld is on the outs, that is probably true), they may be in for a very nasty surprise come the next Arab-Israeli war.

Blogger Tank August 06, 2014 1:08 PM  

It may sound counterintuitive, but Israel cannot achieve this relative peace as long as it is unwilling to accept more casualties than it causes.

Regardless of whether this is right or wrong, no "leader" of any country would propose this and/or Israel won't and can't. Bibi - my plan is to make sure more Israelis die than Gazans. WTF?

Remember, the idea of the de-escalation model is not to defeat the enemy, but rather to convince the bulk of the population it has no reason to fight and thereby isolate the militants, who can then be gradually picked off and made weaker over time.

The bulk of the population has been "educated" since birth to hate Jews, kill Jews and destroy Israel. You have an impossible task (in any short term, years, scope) of accomplishing this.

I don't think there is any "answer." Allowing bombs to be lobbed into Israel or tunnels to be used for kidnapping and terror, are not options.

Blogger Bogey August 06, 2014 1:10 PM  

4. Bring civilian wounded to Israeli hospitals - already being done. And as has been pointed out, Hamas attempts to exploit it militarily.

Could be dangerous, sure, but if anything Israel should be pretty good at finding and disposing bombs at this point.

Anonymous Porky August 06, 2014 1:13 PM  

Shorter Vox:

"We quit, here's lot's of money and stuff, and please keep attacking us."

Anonymous 11B August 06, 2014 1:15 PM  

Central and South American Catholics docile? Towards Jews in a Jewish State in their midst? Too funny.

Central and South American are Catholic in name only. That is why so many are easily picked off by Protestants once they come here. That is also why, despite Bush's statement about family values not ending at the Rio Grande, the supposedly Catholic Latinos have over a 50% out-of-wedlock birth rate.

Central and South American mestizos and indios are docile in comparison to muslims. They are not out to convert anyone. They would be happy to have steady jobs and a steady political environment that a Jewish over class would bring. And given their flexible religious positions, I imagine the Jews could get a large number of them to convert to Judaism which would make them even more compliant.

It would be a win/win symbiotic relationship. The Jews would create a prosperous stable society and the mestizos would create a docile low skilled workforce.

Blogger Bogey August 06, 2014 1:16 PM  

1. The most precious commodity any Israeli government has or ever will have is the lives of its soldiers and its people. They cannot abandon the stand-off weapon superiority that keeps their casualties to the absolute minimum. Kind of like the US in that regard.

They still have their iron dome. I think many of the critics here are thinking too short term.

Anonymous Porky August 06, 2014 1:21 PM  

I think many of the critics here are thinking too short term.

I'm just a poor savage. My time preference extends to about lunchtime.

Anonymous LES August 06, 2014 1:25 PM  

Zionists and neocons are two sides of the same coin. How in the world can a person support Zionism and deplore what the neocons are doing inside the US?

Anonymous Stilicho August 06, 2014 1:26 PM  

How in the world can a person support Zionism and deplore what the neocons are doing inside the US?

Who/whom

Blogger Bogey August 06, 2014 1:26 PM  

Central and South American Catholics docile? Towards Jews in a Jewish State in their midst? Too funny.

No shit, stop making stuff up as you go along 11B. They'll get along with Jews and Muslims as well as they get along with blacks.

Anonymous Emperor of Icecream August 06, 2014 1:28 PM  

When will One Bright Star be released? I'm want to get my hands on it.

Anonymous Josh August 06, 2014 1:31 PM  

I can't stress how much contempt I have for you idiots who simply can't resist trying to criticize without bothering to learn the first thing about the subject. Especially the morons who can't do better than repeat talking points from Fox News.

This. It's eye-opening how relatively stupid these Israel threads have been compared to other threads.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 06, 2014 1:32 PM  

11B: "Central and South American mestizos and indios are docile in comparison to muslims."

When Zionists selected Palestine as their target, Palestinian Muslims were passive and had cohabited with Jews for centuries. After an immigration invasion, ethnic cleansing, rape, mass murder, defamation, political overthrow, and the systematic playing out of the inevitable consequences of Jews as a highly ethnocentric and aggressive in-group strategizing against the non-Jewish out-group, Palestinian Muslims are less passive.

This is a normal in-group / out-group process. It could have happened in South America too.

11B: "They are not out to convert anyone. They would be happy to have steady jobs and a steady political environment that a Jewish over class would bring. And given their flexible religious positions, I imagine the Jews could get a large number of them to convert to Judaism which would make them even more compliant.

It would be a win/win symbiotic relationship. The Jews would create a prosperous stable society and the mestizos would create a docile low skilled workforce."

This never happens.

We've had millenia of Jews repeatedly becoming highly influential and powerful minorities, shaping policy and disproportionately monopolizing the upper end of the economic and intellectual food chains. We know how often the non-Jews wind up being happy in this situation. (For example in Poland.) It doesn't happen.

Wherever you go, there you are. The consequences of the kind of people you are and the kinds of things you characteristically do follow you.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 06, 2014 1:53 PM  

If anyone says we don't know enough yet about the character of the Ukrainian nation to say where things might go, I will listen to them patiently.

If anyone says we don't know enough yet about the Palestinian nation to say whether they will go under or how their strategies might evolve, I will listen skeptically.

But if anyone says the Jews don't have enough history yet for us to make solid guesses on how their latest enterprises might go, I look on in disbelief.

Unless it's Jews doing their usual ethnocentrically biased thing. Then I understand that this is inevitable.

Anonymous VD August 06, 2014 2:05 PM  

Shorter Vox: "We quit, here's lot's of money and stuff, and please keep attacking us."

You're a moron, Porky. That's a false and characteristically dishonest summary. But by all means, go ahead and embrace the macho chest-beating approach that has worked so well in Iraq and Afghanistan. Furthermore, I note that Israel has already quit.... without achieving any of their objectives.

All you guys who keep saying "oh, they just need to try harder, they just need to drop more bombs" clearly know NOTHING about military history and current military theory. Has it truly never occurred to you that the entire reason 4GW has been developed is because conventional tactics have not been working for decades? Do you know how few non-state actors have been defeated by state actors? Is it magic? No. Will it work every time? No. But unlike the conventional approaches, it is not doomed to failure.

And before anyone suggests it, yes, 0GW will certainly work. The Final Solution did, after all, end the problem with Jewish domination certain business sectors in Berlin and the Mongols faced no opposition to their occupation of cities they massacred down to the last dog and cat. But it's not a feasible option, for many reasons that shouldn't need explaining.

Anonymous VD August 06, 2014 2:07 PM  

When will One Bright Star be released? I'm want to get my hands on it.

As soon as we get a cover with which I am satisfied. Hopefully in about a week, but no promises.

Anonymous Krul August 06, 2014 2:10 PM  

luagha - 1. Killing civilians generates new combatants: False. To the Arab, Killing makes you the strong horse and the group that dies is weak horse.

I don't know where you got the strong horse/weak horse stuff, but this doesn't agree with my deployment training. We were taught that most Afghans had a passive/opportunistic attitude to the conflict until it touched them personally.

Once an otherwise content Afghan family sees one of their own killed, they don't say "Oh, we're the weak horse so I guess we'll just take it." The male family members have a moral responsibility to take vengeance in accordance with the Badal principle of Pashtunwali. For one real world example, some US servicemen were conversing with a local contractor who was working for them and they mentioned some Koran-burning incident in the news. They didn't endorse it, only mentioned it, but the contractor was so insulted they would mention it to him that he came back the next day and opened fire on them. If mere talk can generate new combatants, I daresay civilian deaths can.

Maybe it's different in Palestine, I don't know, but your suggestion that Arabs will just passively accept the violent deaths of their noncombatant family members sounds absurd.

Anonymous dh August 06, 2014 2:12 PM  

Sum of All Fears, and it was Jerusalem, not Gaza, that was governed by a troika of Christian, Muslim, and Jewish religious leaders. With a detachment of Swiss troops as security forces.

Thank you. Swiss troops.. that's funny.

Anonymous Anonymous August 06, 2014 2:15 PM  

Afghans are not Arabs (although there is a small Arabic population there). The tribal culture is different.

Arabs will definitely be treacherous, but it's usually more clever than coming back the next day with an AK-47.

Anonymous 11B August 06, 2014 2:18 PM  

Afghans are not Arabs (although there is a small Arabic population there). The tribal culture is different.

Arabs will definitely be treacherous, but it's usually more clever than coming back the next day with an AK-47.


True, and Israel is relatively lucky that they are dealing with Arabs and not Afghans.

Anonymous Porky August 06, 2014 2:20 PM  

You're a moron, Porky.

Probly.

That's a false and characteristically dishonest summary.

Oversimplified to a fault, perhaps. Truth is I agree with you, not because I know anything about military strategy but because what you have outlined is in large part the successful long term strategy of the progressives. Wealth redistribution with the intent to marginalize. It works.

Furthermore, I note that Israel has already quit.... without achieving any of their objectives.

Didn't they get all the cross border tunnels?

Blogger swiftfoxmark2 August 06, 2014 2:23 PM  

have you ever lived next to palestinians? There is a reason no one in the world wants them.

Nobody in the world wants anybody else really if you think about.

Yeah that's why the Palestinian population has tripled since 1948.

I was talking about right now. Right now there are Israeli officials in the Israeli government calling for the absolute annihilation of the Palestinians. Hell, there was a hot Israeli chick who did so before Hamas launched their missiles into Jerusalem and it got over one million Facebook likes.

Anonymous aero August 06, 2014 2:24 PM  

Drain the swamp Because Hamas is one of many swamps

Make an example out of Hamas so other swamps will know what will happen if they allow the scum to rule their swamp.

There be no peace until the swamps learn to filter out the scum that have contaminated their environment

Anonymous Anonymous August 06, 2014 2:24 PM  

If you do a google search for 'shrinkwrapped the arab mind' there's a quiet blog called Shrinkwrapped with an extensive psychological survey of, well, the arab mind. http://shrinkwrapped.blogs.com/blog/the_arab_mind/ is the link to all the posts on the subject.

The strong horse weak horse stuff comes straight from Osama bin Laden, of course, famously quoted as saying, “When people see a strong horse and a weak horse, by nature, they will like the strong horse,” and that al-Qaeda is the strong horse by their actions, thus desirable. The philosophy is touched on at
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Strong_Horse , a reference to the book by journalist Lee Smith.



Anonymous Porky August 06, 2014 2:34 PM  

With that said, the part I think is missing from your plan is a concerted PR push, rather than a lack of response as you suggest.

Anonymous Spooner August 06, 2014 2:39 PM  

Putin vs. O'BoingoBongo in a cage match ought to sort out the Eastern Euro thingydingy.


The results would pretty much look like the Aussie game vs American Samoa (2001).
Final Tally: 31-0.

Anonymous Luke August 06, 2014 2:50 PM  

What is so unworkable about cutting food and water inputs to Gaza, and letting anyone who is unarmed leave that wants to go? Three months of that, and there should only be at most a few hundred fighters left skirmishing, with the civvies all departed. Cellphone and radio jammers + immediate equivalent of Harpoon missiles (laser-guided ground-penetrating bomb, say) for all detected transmissions would of course help with the battle for world public opinion.

Lastly, whatever the IDF does or doesn't do, an eternal total embargo on concrete, mortar, bricks, and cinderblocks should be put in place RTFN. Combined with razing and hauling off rubble (down to ground foundation level) whenever an area becomes controlled by IDF ground troops, that would eventually make it so all buildings in Gaza are fully destructable by flame. (Think would be even more vulnerable than WWII Japanese residential areas.) That would put a serious Sword of Damocles over Gaza in the future, akin to using nukes on the place, with just some incendiary/HE mix conventional bombing.

Last idea: I don't know the local hydrogeology, but I wonder if this would end all bunker/tunnel possibilities: install numerous shallow to semi-shallow high-volume injection wells. Fresh water is scarce there, sure, but sea water would work fine, and the Mediterranean Sea is right there. No tunnels, no underground bunkers, not even any basements for Hamas fighter to use, if done extensively enough.

Blogger Tank August 06, 2014 2:52 PM  

Furthermore, I note that Israel has already quit.... without achieving any of their objectives.

To the contrary, they have degraded the tunnel system and rocket capability, a short term objective. It's not a "final" resolution, but that can come later, if possible (not in the near future IMHO).

Anonymous Josh August 06, 2014 2:57 PM  

To the contrary, they have degraded the tunnel system and rocket capability, a short term objective. It's not a "final" resolution, but that can come later, if possible (not in the near future IMHO).

They've claimed to have destroyed all the tunnels.

The tunnels will be rebuilt and more rockets will be brought in.

Blogger James Higham August 06, 2014 3:01 PM  

That's fine, except for the September hit.

Anonymous Alexander August 06, 2014 3:10 PM  

How on earth is this difficult to understand...

Yes, Israel *could* cordon off Gaza and step by step remove everything larger than a twig until nothing remained. Nobody here, least not Vox, is disputing this!

What *is* being argued is that laying and old-school siege to Gaza and starving them out would result in months and months of global media coverage of starving Palestinians. Of riots from London to Jakarta, of massive global backlash against Jews, and maybe even enough of a moral demand amongst Muslims to create an actual coalition for another Arab-Israel war.

Israel is not prepared to accept the number of casualties that would be inflicted on Israeli civilians, the IDF, and the international Jewish population to successfully perform such an operation. Therefore, FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES, it is "not possible."

Blogger Tank August 06, 2014 3:12 PM  

@Josh, yes and then they'll have to do it again. In the meantime, less Israelis will die and be kidnapped.

Anonymous trev006 August 06, 2014 3:14 PM  

I'm rather impressed that Vox came up with a reasonable plan for de-escalation of the conflict. Unfortunately, I can see this falling at three hurdles close to the start:

1) The Egyptian army isn't going to accept responsibility for Gaza, no matter how much money you throw at it. Doing so practically paints a target on their back and gets the Muslim Brotherhood tons of new money and jihadis from all over the Middle East. Before we talk about how the perception of being a Zionist tool is a mortal PR blow to Egypt within the Muslim world, does Egypt see sending their soldiers to enforce security against a group mortally opposed to their influence as a potentially successful scenario? Not in a million years, even though Egypt's never been more opposed to Hamas as a nation.

2) Say what you want about the 1990's, but Palestinians, and Gazans specifically, were much richer during that time than now. Yet not only did Gaza participate in the Second Intifada, Fatah joined Hamas in a massive attack that scuttled Oslo. I appreciate the notion that poverty helps motivate people to become terrorists, but religion and nationalism remain potent factors: as long as Hamas is motivated by this, they'll have no shortage of qualified people to man their more specialized weaponry. It would be nice to reduce the number of committed terrorists, no one's arguing that, but if that number doesn't fall below a considerable threshold, the number and accuracy of future rocket attacks will be more than any nation can hope to tolerate.

3) Israel is a democracy, and they're beyond uninterested in such a plan. It's the least justifiable objection, given that Israel damn well should consider something that might actually work, but it is also the most consequential one. If Likud's not interested, this plan can't even get off the ground. Not to mention that Israel's abysmal international reputation will be maintained if Likud continues to have an open supporter of violent ethnic cleansing in its cabinet.

However, cheer up. This plan is miles ahead of anything I've seen from any solution proposed by the major players thus far, not that such would be hard. And it does give me some ideas for a plan that stands a better chance of working. I'm thinking a carrot and stick approach to economic development, designed to exclude extremist parties, combined with non-violent reprisals for breaking the peace deal. More on this later tonight.

Blogger Mark Andrew Edwards August 06, 2014 3:14 PM  

@VD

"My goodness, but you're stupid."

---I realize I'm new here, but do you always insult people trying to comment politely?

" Yes, everyone knows what Hamas's goal is."
---Do they? That's not the impression I get from other discussions online.

"The whole point is that MOST PALESTINIANS IN GAZA ARE NOT WILLING TO FIGHT FOR HAMAS. The objective is to maximize the number of Palestinians who won't fight, and minimize the number who will."

--MAYBE most Palestinians are not willing to fight for Hamas but how may of them are willing to live in peace with Israel? I don't think your suggestion is going to make the Palestinians more inclined to peace. Haters gonna hate...which might explain the rest of your tirade?

"I can't stress how much contempt I have for you idiots who simply can't resist trying to criticize without bothering to learn the first thing about the subject."

"Especially the morons who can't do better than repeat talking points from Fox News."

--I don't watch Fox News or much network TV. But if they're echoing me, happy co-incidence.

Blogger Nate August 06, 2014 3:25 PM  

"And before anyone suggests it, yes, 0GW will certainly work. The Final Solution did, after all, end the problem with Jewish domination certain business sectors in Berlin and the Mongols faced no opposition to their occupation of cities they massacred down to the last dog and cat. But it's not a feasible option, for many reasons that shouldn't need explaining."

For crying out loud people... my whole point at bringing up the depopulation of Gaza was to be able to use the line about israel not being morally obligated to give a damn about french riots.

Which of course was a meant as a step toward another conclusion that I was hoping to lead you to in a less-than-obvious fashion.

Next time I'll just be blunt.

Anonymous Luke August 06, 2014 3:34 PM  

Alexander August 06, 2014 3:10 PM


Yes, Israel *could* cordon off Gaza and step by step remove everything larger than a twig until nothing remained. Nobody here, least not Vox, is disputing this!

What *is* being argued is that laying and old-school siege to Gaza and starving them out would result in months and months of global media coverage of starving Palestinians.

Israel is not prepared to accept the number of casualties that would be inflicted on Israeli civilians, the IDF, and the international Jewish population to successfully perform such an operation. Therefore, FOR ALL INTENTS AND PURPOSES, it is "not possible."


And, why do you think maintaining a blockade would entail major casualties for the IDF? The main human losses to Israelis in that scenario would IMO be from rockets coming from the untaken parts of Gaza, and those were going to happen anyway.
Oh, and why would a near-total blockade of food and water take "months and months" to do the job? There is no Luftwaffe willing and able to brave enemy AA and fighters to drop a few hundred tons of supplies a day to a Festung Gaza. Plus, it's a DESERT, which usually means not a whole lot of water supply, and that probably easy to target and blow up (e.g., pipes/pumping stations/treatment plants).

Blogger RobertT August 06, 2014 3:36 PM  

Outsource the occupation.

Great idea. The entire list is plausible and innovative, very innovative. It makes me wonder what ideas all those military strategists come up with. "Same as last war?" If that's it, they stole it form my profession where the general strategy is "Same as last year". But I especially like this particular step. It reminds me of the startling step Steve Jobs took by outsourcing manufacturing as he pulled Apple from the brink of bankruptcy and propelled it to the most valuable company in the world in little more than a decade.

Anonymous Curtis August 06, 2014 3:39 PM  

My VD but you're stupid. [You invited this language with your own]

Most people in Gaza have demonstrated that they ARE WILLING to fight for Hamas.
You just sucked at the pap of 4G nonsense; bought the milk, arranged the marriage and named the children.

You don't, in this case, have a clue what you're talking about.

You and the deluded fantasists at 4G will believe anything. I think I hear you now, clapping like mad for little Tinkerbelle.

Anonymous Alexander August 06, 2014 3:41 PM  

1. Because you're going to have a desperate people who still have armed men with rockets hiding among them? Because as mentioned above, you've given the entire Arab world and enormous incentive to be the leader of a coalition against Israel? Because casualties are going to go up within that short term window when there are no other options on the table? Take your pick.

2. Yeah right. You would have chartered planes by every Tranzi organization ever created running an airlift. And the world would cheer them - it would be a propaganda victory for every do-gooder group like you wouldn't believe. They could even make a big show of allowing any inspection you care to prove it was only food, water, and medicine going across, and then dare Israel to shoot them down. That's not going to go over well...

Blogger Nate August 06, 2014 3:44 PM  

"Most people in Gaza have demonstrated that they ARE WILLING to fight for Hamas.
You just sucked at the pap of 4G nonsense; bought the milk, arranged the marriage and named the children."

You're an idiot. if most folks in Gaza were willing to fight... then it wouldn't be a 4G situation at all. It wouldn't have to be. Israel wouldn't ever dream of attacking them.

Anonymous zen0 August 06, 2014 3:45 PM  

Outsource the occupation.

Only instead of the Egyptians that have relatives in Gaza, use someone totally foreign like the Chinese.

Let the Palestinians try to deal with those crazy bastards.

Anonymous Luke August 06, 2014 3:45 PM  

Alexander August 06, 2014 3:41 PM


"2. Yeah right. You would have chartered planes by every Tranzi organization ever created running an airlift. And the world would cheer them - it would be a propaganda victory for every do-gooder group like you wouldn't believe. They could even make a big show of allowing any inspection you care to prove it was only food, water, and medicine going across, and then dare Israel to shoot them down. That's not going to go over well...

The same way that there are daily blockade-flouting shipments attempted there right now? Oops, that's only happening about once a year, and they don't get through unless the IDF wants them to. Try again.

Anonymous Alexander August 06, 2014 3:47 PM  

I don't have to "try again". Israel is not currently trying to impose a blockade on Gaza with the intent of leaving the place barren of all life. I trust you are capable of understanding that if Israel changes it's intentions, so to will the other side...

Anonymous David of One August 06, 2014 3:50 PM  

"Next time I'll just be blunt." - Nate

This brings to mind an ancient Dreaded Ilk saying ...

"It is the pointed and sharp tool that cleanly pierces the thick skull. It is the blunt tool that caves-in the thick skull and makes a big mess. The many hands of the Ilk make short work of big messes."

Anonymous Alexander August 06, 2014 3:52 PM  

It's really, really simple.

If I were in charge of such an operation, I'd have a bunch of helicopters painted up in bright colors and peace symbols, a united red cross/red crescent what have you... then I'd get all my supplies, and make a big show of what I was sending - water, MREs, basic medicine, etc. I would invite the Israeli to send inspectors of my cargo. I would invite all the major news networks. I would have some starving Palestine children give their sob story.

Then, I would make sure that my crew were European and American nationals. Then I would invite Israel to blow up American citizens delivering food and water to starving Palestinian children. Good luck keeping that old war siege going.

Anonymous Anonymous August 06, 2014 3:52 PM  

Right now, Israel is actually playing by United Nations style laws of war 'proportionality' rules.

Which means that the amount of civilian harm is graded against the military objective reached.

So it would be totally okay to bomb that central Gaza hospital that has the Hamas leadership underneath it IF you actually hit the Hamas leadership. Its value as a military target outweighs the innocents being used as human shields.

Israel isn't willing to abandon this wholesale. Could, did, would, should, want, must, it's not happening.

Everyone agrees that if Israel wants to win, it has to change. The question is 'what change is acceptable?' And given that politics is the art of the possible, 'what change is possible?'

Anonymous Luke August 06, 2014 3:55 PM  

Alexander August 06, 2014 3:47 PM

" I don't have to "try again". Israel is not currently trying to impose a blockade on Gaza with the intent of leaving the place barren of all life. I trust you are capable of understanding that if Israel changes it's intentions, so to will the other side..."

http://www.mythsandfacts.org/conflict/statute-treaties/hamas_charter.htm

"Hamas' charter calls for the destruction of the State of Israel and its replacement with a Palestinian Islamic state from the Jordan River to the Mediterranean Sea.'

Seems to me that ANY change from Hamas's current motivations would be an improvement from the Israeli's POV.

Oh, and WRT attacks on Jews outside Israel? Every one of those arguably motivates Jews to go to Israel instead of places Jews are a vulnerable minority; win-win for the Israeli gov't IMO.

Anonymous Krul August 06, 2014 3:57 PM  

**I'm really sick of this website eating my comments**

Nate - For crying out loud people... my whole point at bringing up the depopulation of Gaza was to be able to use the line about israel not being morally obligated to give a damn about french riots.

Which of course was a meant as a step toward another conclusion that I was hoping to lead you to in a less-than-obvious fashion.


Well now you've got me curious. Is the conclusion that the rest of us need not give a damn about an Israeli conflict?

Anonymous trev006 August 06, 2014 4:03 PM  

I think it might have been a sarcastic conclusion that we need not care about the French depopulating their country of Jews, in the past and in the present. I'm thinking of the starting comment Nate made about such an event being forgotten in a few years to prove how preposterous a statement would have been about, say, the Holocaust. Of course, I could be wrong.

Anonymous Luke August 06, 2014 4:05 PM  

Alexander August 06, 2014 3:52 PM

" If I were in charge of such an operation, I'd have a bunch of helicopters painted up in bright colors and peace symbols, a united red cross/red crescent what have you... then I'd get all my supplies, and make a big show of what I was sending - water, MREs, basic medicine, etc. I would invite the Israeli to send inspectors of my cargo. I would invite all the major news networks. I would have some starving Palestine children give their sob story.

Then, I would make sure that my crew were European and American nationals. Then I would invite Israel to blow up American citizens delivering food and water to starving Palestinian children. Good luck keeping that old war siege going.


"Peace symbols" = upside down broken crosses. Way to get aware Christians on your side.

The "American citizens" on such boats and helicopters would be predominantly obvious ragheads, whatever their official status. Non-muzzie Americans who see pro-Islamic ranters with bad English on their TVs, aren't going to see fellow citizens, whatever color passports the beardo screechers might carry in their fetid piss-stained thobes, Most Western liberals are cowards, seriously "r" life strategy types. There aren't too many Rachel Corries, and good riddance if their number drops through seeking to become fellow Darwin Awards. May all Fifth Columnists against the West find early graves, and their genes rot with them.

Anonymous 11B August 06, 2014 4:08 PM  

The Census Bureau forecasts that non-Hispanic whites, now slightly more than 60 percent of the population, will fall below 50 percent in 2043. Within 30 years, there will cease to be a racial majority in the United States. In a narrow political sense, this is bad news for the GOP, which is dominated by older white men such as Brooks. But for the country, the disassociation of whiteness and American-ness is to be celebrated. Indeed, it is the key to our survival.

Honestly, I try to be positive on Israel given the Western nature of their nation. But then I come across crap like that quote above from Dana Milbank and I cringe.

Whatever Israel chooses for its strategy, it had better include going after Jews like Milbank who are forever alienating potential allies in Western nations. If David Frum can denounce Pat Buchanan as unpatriotic, surely Jews concerned about Israel can do the same for Milbank, Yglesias and the tons of other fellow travelers.

Anonymous Samuel Scott August 06, 2014 4:20 PM  

Right now, Israel is actually playing by United Nations style laws of war 'proportionality' rules.

Except that everyone -- even journalists, who should know better -- gets the meaning of "proportionate" wrong.

Disproportionate warfare in a military context means using excessive force in the context of the military goal. If you're trying to take out a sniper in a building, nuking the entire town is disproportionate.

But 99% of the world thinks it's about the ratio of casualities. If 1,000 Palestinians and 10 Israelis die, then Israel is being "disproportionate." But that's not what the word means! It just angers me to no end. People are either ignorant of the facts, or they twist them to suit their own agendas.

Anonymous VD August 06, 2014 4:20 PM  

To the contrary, they have degraded the tunnel system and rocket capability, a short term objective.

Do you not understand what "objectives" means? I listed the IDF's actual objectives twice on this blog already:

End the rocket attacks
Demilitarize Gaza
Deterrence
Eliminate Hamas’s senior military command and political leadership
Prevent Hamas from being able to rearm

Did they achieve any of those things? No, they did not.

I realize I'm new here, but do you always insult people trying to comment politely?

When they say things this obviously stupid, I'm afraid so. You completely failed to grasp anything that I wrote, then responded with a statement of the obvious that was completely irrelevant.

Look, you're very welcome and all. But you have to realize that this is a high-IQ, well-informed crowd, and parroting obvious nonsense simply isn't going to go over well here. Let me explain the problem with your statement:

1. Let's say you are correct and everyone in Gaza implacably hates Israel. And yet, everyone isn't fighting. In fact, most people aren't fighting.
2. 4GW tactics are specifically designed to minimize the number of people fighting.
3. Therefore, 4GW tactics are applicable even if your nominal objection to them is true.

Do you understand now?

Anonymous Samuel Scott August 06, 2014 4:22 PM  

In other words, if people are firing missiles from a school, then taking out the school is not disproportionate because the military objective is to stop the missiles from being fired.

Anonymous Alexander August 06, 2014 4:22 PM  

... Really, you think a propaganda coup in Europe and America, today, would be broken by the use of the peace symbol?

And no, not at all. I think it would be very, very easy to recruit some white, all-American looking boys and girls for the sole purpose of flying into Palestine with cargo of food and water.

I'd appreciate a third party input here, because either Luke is incredibly dense, or I am.

Anonymous Krul August 06, 2014 4:28 PM  

Luke - "Peace symbols" = upside down broken crosses. Way to get aware Christians on your side.

Alexander's objective with this isn't to get "aware Christians" on his side. Anyway the siege-breaking plan doesn't require the use of peace symbols.

Blogger Mark Andrew Edwards August 06, 2014 4:29 PM  

@VD

Ah, I think I see the problem. I'm not disagreeing with your assessment of the current Gaza situation being a 4GW. I agree with you there.

I also agree that 4GW warfare needs to separate the sheep from the goats, as it were.

My opinion, based on my own study and the opinions of folks who've been there like Michael Totten, is that there is a high percentage of people in Gaza who don't need any new motivation to fight. And that allowing attacks to be launched without retaliation is a bad idea. Airstrikes and artillery are imperfect. And I don't want any true innocents being killed on any side. But a ground retaliation into Gaza, which could maybe be more targeted, isn't wise/easy/possible.

My apologizes for any confusion. I'm stealing time from work to read and post.

Anonymous Josh August 06, 2014 4:32 PM  

There are a million people in Gaza. If a high percentage of them didn't need any new motivation to fight, they would be fighting.

They're obviously not.

Anonymous Krul August 06, 2014 4:38 PM  

BTW, Alexander, are you saying that Israel would balk at blowing up a helicopter full of US citizens?

Because... hate to bring it up, but... USS Liberty.

I mean if they'd blow that up, then I doubt they'd blow up a helicopter that's a legitimate military target for breaking a blockade, and isn't even a US gov asset.

Anonymous ENthePeasant August 06, 2014 4:40 PM  

One thing that hasn't been mentioned, and is extremely important to the conversation on 4th GW, is the Hamas's strategy and tactical goals. It's traditional in military strategy deny your enemy what he intends. 4th GW turns this on it's head understanding weaknesses in Western culture. Hamas's major goal is to cause Pali civilian casualties. Israel is making some effort to prevent that, but not enough to matter. In fact I would bet the farm that Hamas is actually killing their own and blaming it on Israel. For Israel's part they should not be so casualty averse. It will save them lives in the long run. What it costs them early will be more than helpful later by winning on both the military and economic levels. Take some casualties and it has the affect of knocking the media's legs out from under them. The media loves being "thematic". It make things easier for them. It may sound callous, but if one of those rockets hit an Israeli school it make for great theater and allows for the destruction of the civilian population of Gaza, which is the sea that Hamas hides in. Let Israeli soldiers die trying to avoid civilian casualties and that also becomes the story. Video of Hamas building a rocket launching sight in a densely populated civilian area:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WBnbuNqzSKk#t=234

Anonymous Krul August 06, 2014 4:40 PM  

CORRECTION: "I mean if they'd blow that up, then I doubt they'd hesitate to blow up..."

Anonymous VD August 06, 2014 4:49 PM  

And, why do you think maintaining a blockade would entail major casualties for the IDF? The main human losses to Israelis in that scenario would IMO be from rockets coming from the untaken parts of Gaza, and those were going to happen anyway.

Because in your scenario the attacks won't be coming from Gaza, but Israel and the West Bank.

My VD but you're stupid. [You invited this language with your own] Most people in Gaza have demonstrated that they ARE WILLING to fight for Hamas.

(laughs at Curtis) Sure they have. Run along, little boy.

Anonymous Luke August 06, 2014 4:53 PM  

Alexander August 06, 2014 4:22 PM

"And no, not at all. I think it would be very, very easy to recruit some white, all-American looking boys and girls for the sole purpose of flying into Palestine with cargo of food and water."

The same way all those lefties in the first Gulf War volunteered to be human shields at potential airstrike targets in Iraq, and then skedaddled right after they found out that the Coalition announced it would bomb those targets nonetheless?

Again, Western white lefties are usually cowards.

Anonymous VD August 06, 2014 5:00 PM  

My opinion, based on my own study and the opinions of folks who've been there like Michael Totten, is that there is a high percentage of people in Gaza who don't need any new motivation to fight.

That may be. The whole objective is to reduce that percentage over time, while maintaining pressure on those who belong to the irreducible group.

My apologizes for any confusion.

No worries. It often takes a little time to adjust to the discourse here.

Blogger Nate August 06, 2014 5:33 PM  

"Well now you've got me curious. Is the conclusion that the rest of us need not give a damn about an Israeli conflict?"

no.

i really will just spit it out next time... but I'm way to disappointed in you people today to bother with it.

No offense...

Anonymous Anonymous August 06, 2014 5:46 PM  

Here's some hopefulness on the people of Gaza not being behind this most recent attack...

http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/183741#.U-Kh6qMSbil

Anonymous Noah B. August 06, 2014 5:59 PM  

"I haven't heard anything about Hezzbolah attacking from the north so far."

Hezbollah is probably more worried about the rising caliphate than Israel for the moment.

"Do you have a Plan B you would propose that has a more realistic chance of success?"

Basically Nate's plan, plus, target the press if they become a problem.

Anonymous Luke August 06, 2014 6:10 PM  

VD August 06, 2014 4:49 PM

"And, why do you think maintaining a blockade would entail major casualties for the IDF? The main human losses to Israelis in that scenario would IMO be from rockets coming from the untaken parts of Gaza, and those were going to happen anyway."

Because in your scenario the attacks won't be coming from Gaza, but Israel and the West Bank.

I don't entirely understand this point, Vox. I can't see many rockets or mortars being shot at major Israeli cities coming from within Israel. Sure, there could be some coming from the West Bank. Likewise, as long as there are ANY Muslims west of the Jordan, some by-foot terrorism against Israelis is always possible. But, wouldn't drawing such out from cover, so they can be destroyed (think Viet Cong in the Tet Offensive) be militarily useful? Likewise, such would give plenty of (mostly internal but some external, too) political cover for Israel to speed up expulsions of Muslims from Israel proper, and Pals from the West Bank. It's not as if either are needed, or even useful to Israel on a net basis.

Anonymous a_peraspera August 06, 2014 6:16 PM  

A lot of folks still trying to draw distinctions between Hamas, Fatah, Islamic Jihad and the "civilians." That's a fool's game.

All of these disparate groups have the same goal - the death of all Jews in the region. Doesn't make much sense to treat them differently. Plus since the fighters hide among the civilians, and don't spare the lives of Israeli noncombatants, why should Arab noncombatants be sancrosanct?

And, money is fungible. When you talk about feeding the civilians, well every dollar the Pallies don't have to spend on food is a dollar they can spend on weapons.

Make Hamas spend that money to feed their people (or lose support). Rule one of any war should be "don't provide your enemy with food, water or electricity." Shut off all three, keep any Pallies from escaping into Israel, and everything will kind of...sort itself out within a month or two.

Anonymous Carlotta August 06, 2014 7:17 PM  

Isn't just giving everyone their own big screen television, Internet and video games a viable option? Maybe open a Walmart?
Sure seems to be stupifying everyone here. War over, no one cares.

Blogger Nate August 06, 2014 7:20 PM  

Bane would've liked my plan better.


Just sayin'

Anonymous David of One August 06, 2014 7:38 PM  

At the risk of being accused of being a brown-nosing egg-sucking no good lower than a snakes belly to the ground ... I am inclined to agree with you Nate.

One possible exception ... Bane might have really enjoyed finding more tunnels, waiting for any inhabitants to come out, take their heads and throw the heads back down into the tunnels for the others to wonder how long he would wait before taking fresh heads and throwing those down into the tunnels.

He knew many would wait month's before coming out not knowing if he was still waiting above ground to take their heads.

Then there would be those he'd capture and strap to a missiles and fire them off straight into the air only to come straight down and destroying the hidden weapons cache ... maybe even tying 5 or 6 of them together and then firing the missile off ... or maybe taking a hundred heads and firing the missile off to a known terrorist compound ... the list of possibilities would probably be even longer.

Just sayin'

Anonymous Castaigne August 06, 2014 7:40 PM  

Really, Israel and Hamas (and other foreign adventures) can be summed up in one sentence for us Americans. That sentence is:

"If it's not happening in Canada or Mexico and troops are not on our soil, then it's Not Our Problem."

As far as I'm concerned, the Israelis can throw every Palestinian (man, woman, and child) in a concentration camp and turn them into lampshades, use their skulls for thrones in the Knesset, and daub themselves in Palistinian blood. As a Southerner says, "Won't make no never mind to me."

The whole point is that MOST PALESTINIANS IN GAZA ARE NOT WILLING TO FIGHT FOR HAMAS. The objective is to maximize the number of Palestinians who won't fight, and minimize the number who will.

If a Palestinian is not willing to ACTIVELY fight AGAINST Hamas, then by default they have chosen to side with Hamas. If you are not for us, you are the enemy. No such thing as neutrality.

But it's not a feasible option, for many reasons that shouldn't need explaining.

As long as it is a Just War, it's a perfectly feasible option.

-----

@PhillipGeorge(c)2014:

Just bulldoze the dome of the rock/ while fully locked and loaded. Jets manned, hatches open.

What, so Protestant Fundies can nuke Israel, get Revelations started and claim the Kingdom of God as per their heretical variant of the Apocalypse? No thanks. I'll pass.

Blogger Nate August 06, 2014 7:44 PM  

there is no more ignorant and idiotic lefty trope than the claim that evangelicals want to kick start The Second Coming.

Anonymous zen0 August 06, 2014 8:18 PM  

@ Castaigne

If a Palestinian is not willing to ACTIVELY fight AGAINST Hamas, then by default they have chosen to side with Hamas.

Good thing the Israelis are not as ideologically blind as yourself. If they even criticize Hamas publicly , and are often executed as collaborators. I am currently reading the Berlin Diaries , covering event up to and into the beginning of WWII in Germany. Same shit happened there. The Germans as a whole did not want war, but, you know, the power of the State and all.

(notice how I mentioned Hitler without mentioning Hitler.....Brilliant!)

Anonymous PhillipGeorge(c)2014 August 06, 2014 8:23 PM  

Castaigne, I don't wish to over-dignify that remark with too specific a reply:

Islam is an incoherent if not schizophrenic mix of "fatalism" and "might is right" - as Mo himself every successful Islamic leader has been something of a despot. All moral equivocation on the part of a perceived enemy is weakness to the Jihadists; who shall also acknowledge that when they are completely routed it was "allah's will"
Giving Islam any sort of moral equivalence is fatally flawed logic.

other than that stick to cartoon characterizations of the 'religious right wing'.
Israel's problems are theological

Blogger Danby August 06, 2014 8:36 PM  

@Luke said"The same way all those lefties in the first Gulf War volunteered to be human shields at potential airstrike targets in Iraq, and then skedaddled right after they found out that the Coalition announced it would bomb those targets nonetheless?

Again, Western white lefties are usually cowards. "

It's not just lefties, you sad sack of shite. If Israel were to cut off food and water to Gaza, I myself would volunteer to fly supplies in. And kill any soulless murderous bastard that stood in my way. And I have no love of Hamas, nor Palestinians. I sympathize in general much more with the Israelis.

But Someone will say "I was thirsty, and you gave Me to drink. I was hungry and you gave Me to eat."

We're not given an option here...

Anonymous zen0 August 06, 2014 8:44 PM  

@ Luke

I don't entirely understand this point, Vox. I can't see many rockets or mortars being shot at major Israeli cities coming from within Israel.

How about suicide bombers dressed as Orthodox Jews?. Much better aim than with rockets.

Anonymous zen0 August 06, 2014 8:49 PM  

@ Danby

It's not just lefties, you sad sack of shite. If Israel were to cut off food and water to Gaza, I myself would volunteer to fly supplies in.

I don't think you will have to back up your braggadocio with action.
Probably a good thing.

Blogger Danby August 06, 2014 9:05 PM  

@Zen.
This isn't braggadocio. I've got history. I've swum through floodwaters to retrieve people, fought forest fires, and combed mountainsides for lost climbers.
And if some person were to intentionally starve or cut off water to civilians, I would personally shoot him in the face if necessary, friend or foe.
But you're right, it won't be needed, The Israelis aren't that stupid, even if some of their supporters are

Anonymous PhillipGeorge(c)2014 August 06, 2014 9:33 PM  

starvation has been a war weapon somewhere in Africa for most of the last 40 years -

so how did your relief flights go?

where did you do your training. What air-craft, I'd like to read up on how you went.

Anonymous zen0 August 06, 2014 9:44 PM  

@ Danby

I've got history.

If so , then I salute you.

The Israelis often send people around the world to do that stuff. They have even offered to help in Muslim countries ( with earthquakes and such) but they will not allow them to go there.

So yah, probably won't need to.

Anonymous zen0 August 06, 2014 10:40 PM  

Feiglin responds to "concentration camp" allegations:

Feiglin

"If only the people in Hiroshima, Nagasaki, and Dresden were given such options" (Paraphrased)

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 06, 2014 10:43 PM  

Castaigne: "Really, Israel and Hamas (and other foreign adventures) can be summed up in one sentence for us Americans. That sentence is:

"If it's not happening in Canada or Mexico and troops are not on our soil, then it's Not Our Problem.""

For that to be true, "American" has to be defined to exclude Jews, for whom Israel is their state.

Logically that's correct.

Politically, how likely is it? Given that Jews are altogether dominant over America: in the mass media, financially, culturally, politically, legally and in academia? And given that the Anglo elite long since gave up and threw in its lot with the Jews? And given that Jews have an additional base of support: the mass of Christian Zionist whites whom they hate but whose support they can always rely on?

All the costs of Israel's wars (apart from a very little Jewish blood) will continue to be charged to white America while ever Jews and their supporters dominate that nation.

This means Israel will continue to be in an extremely secure situation despite all its loud lamentations, and the Palestinians will continue to face an invincible Israeli / American (Master / Blaster) "coalition".

This cannot and will not change until white America is unwilling or unable to continue.

11B (repeated line): "Meanwhile at our southern border..."

Yes, that's exactly right. This is where something decisive is really happening. In the "Holy Land" there is an illusion of crisis while really it's the same old same old. But in America there's a superficial political stasis overlaying decisive changes.

"The Census Bureau forecasts that non-Hispanic whites, now slightly more than 60 percent of the population, will fall below 50 percent in 2043. Within 30 years, there will cease to be a racial majority in the United States. In a narrow political sense, this is bad news for the GOP, which is dominated by older white men such as Brooks. But for the country, the disassociation of whiteness and American-ness is to be celebrated. Indeed, it is the key to our survival."

That is maximum hostility; it is racial-eliminationist, directed at whites in America. (And not only in America...)

Master / Blaster is not going to continue indefinitely. Blaster can't live like this. And Master is too aggressive to stop.

The Arabs would be morons to give up and fade away when the arrival of a more favorable strategic situation for them is just a matter of time. The Arabs have endured for most of a century. They can continue to endure like this for a century more. America, on the other hand, is going down. Therefore the rational basis of the long term Arab hope for a victory in Palestine cannot be invalidated by any means that organized Jewry is willing to embrace.

So Israel cannot "win". It is simply not as important as Jewish preferences regarding the fate of American (and other) whites.

(If Jews did start putting a maximum priority on Israel's security and survival, they wouldn't start off with 0 generation warfare in Gaza, which would be a high-cost, low-payoff move; they would call off the war of elimination on white America, Israel's strategic reserve. That would be a less-than-zero cost, massive payoff move. But they will never do it. Temperamentally, they can't.)

The very best Israel could do (if Jews could be un-aggressive enough, which I doubt) would be to try to convince a lot of Arabs that it's not worth their while to fight yet. In other words, the Vox agenda.

Given that that's not happening, there's not a lot to talk about in the "Holy Land".

Anonymous 11B August 07, 2014 12:43 AM  

So Israel cannot "win". It is simply not as important as Jewish preferences regarding the fate of American (and other) whites.

So basically it comes down to what is more important to Jews: the continued security of Israel, or the continued "disassociation of whiteness and American-ness".

Anonymous TheVillageIdiot(Ret.) August 07, 2014 1:06 AM  

i really will just spit it out next time... but I'm way to disappointed in you people today to bother with it.

No offense...

Nate



Reminds me of the times I had Nate as a square dancing instructor

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDYfaR9TdzI
The Rodeo song

Daniel Denham

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 07, 2014 1:58 AM  

11B: "So basically it comes down to what is more important to Jews: the continued security of Israel, or the continued "disassociation of whiteness and American-ness"."

Right.

Normally in Jewish history there is a "Jewish center". There will be one place that is preeminent in population and wealth, and from there the influence, decisions and authority will flow.

In our age, there are two Jewish centers: Israel and America. (With the rest of the diaspora having interests that are more like America than Israel. For example, an Australian Jew's interests are more like those of an American Jew than they are like those of an Israeli Jew.)

These two centers have conflicting interests. And organized Jewry has no Pope, no authority to adjudicate between these interests. There are even different religious threads of Judaism that correspond to this: Liberal and Conservative Judaism are for the Diaspora, while Orthodoxy doesn't have real rivals in Israel as it does in the diaspora. (Hasidic Jewry is not really a complicating factor in practice, as it goes its own way.)

Israeli Jews are locked in a fight with the Arabs. Have you noticed that Israeli Jews you meet online are less hostile to white Americans than non-Israeli Jews are? There's a good reason for that. It makes sense in terms of Israel's interests and who the main enemy is from a Jewish Israeli point of view.

From the Jewish Israeli point of view, if American Jews would talk less about tearing America to pieces, that would be fine.

Diaspora interests, which are essentially Jewish American interests, are very different. From point of view of the elite of organized Jewry in the Diaspora (the Elders of Wye types), whites are their rivals, and the main potential threat. (Whites are latent Nazis etc..) That is the main game, to which all other issues must be subordinated.

From the Diaspora Jewish point of view, "leftist" anti-white politics still work, and it would be a fine thing if Israeli Jews would stop doing things that call attention to how different Jews are from whites, how different Jewish interests and white interests are, and how ethnic nationalist Jews are. Though Jews will ultimately support Jews, strongly anti-white and leftist Jews will criticize Israeli acts and policies more boldly than many whites will, because showy displays of Jewish aggression and nationalism contradict diaspora interests.

In practice, what happens is that Israeli Jews wage their war and diaspora Jews wage their war, and there is no over-all direction to it.

There is no master conspiracy. And there can't be. This is driven by heritable temperament, culture and interests, and the people involved are all so group-minded that they tend to tunnel-vision on the interests and enmities of their group. There's no way for whites to stop Jews acting like that, and there's no way for their fellow-Jews to do it either, without one fully dominant center to pull everyone into line.

Anonymous Toby Temple August 07, 2014 2:42 AM  

Will this work for Israel?:

1 - Take responsibility for all collateral damage
2 - Admit that they have taken "civilian deaths" into account
3 - Will do what is necessary to stop Hamas from bombing us
4 - Once they are done, file your war crime cases in the UN and we will face it
5 - Until then, we will continue doing what is necessary until Hamas is gone for good
6 - To those who fought the war in Iraq, you can watch us or you can help us.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 07, 2014 2:48 AM  

I realize I contradicted myself a bit there, but Jewish strategy in the 21st Century really is a bit contradictory. There is a unity of blood, religion and sentiment, and there are contradictions. Real people don't act with organization-chart neatness.

However, I will stand by saying that in practice Israel is simply not as important as Jewish preferences regarding the fate of American (and other) whites. The "disassociation of whiteness and American-ness" is a freight train, and Jews are driving that train, not trying to stop it, even though that contradicts a fundamental Israeli interest, and even though Jews who are deeply complicit in the destruction of America, like social liberal and open-borders fan Sheldon Adelson, also show a deep and sincere commitment to Israel.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus August 07, 2014 3:00 AM  

Toby Temple: "Will this work for Israel?:

1 - Take responsibility for all collateral damage"

Not possible.

Consider the content of any thread that focuses or even touches on Jews, Israel etc..

And remember that Jewish commenters adamantly denied that Israel wanted America to strike Syria, even while an Israeli diplomat was saying "Israel wants America to strike!"

Jews taking responsibility is not going to happen.

People have different play-books, and you only get to pick from the plays available to people of your genetic heritage.

For instance, white Americans can't recover from the loss of their nation by dispersing all round the world and becoming market-dominant minority middlemen, while retaining their ethnic cohesion. They don't have the temperament for it, so that's not an option. And so on.

A plan for the Jews - as if they needed one - has to be on that actual Jews will willingly carry out.

Anonymous PhillipGeorge(c)2014 August 07, 2014 3:03 AM  

There in Titus is a balancing act: One can support Israel and similtaneously resist the world wide web of Talmudic Jewry.

I think that sums it up.

Anonymous Toby Temple August 07, 2014 3:47 AM  

1 - Take responsibility for all collateral damage"

Not possible.


When I stated Israel, I mean the Israeli government.

They should take responsibility for any collateral damages now and in the future. As long as they are allowed to get rid of Hamas once and for all.

After that, let the humanitarian prosecution do their job.

Blogger Some dude August 07, 2014 5:49 AM  

@Danby

If ... were to cut off food and water to ... I myself would volunteer to fly supplies in. And kill any soulless murderous bastard that stood in my way.

...

But Someone will say "I was thirsty, and you gave Me to drink. I was hungry and you gave Me to eat."

We're not given an option here...


Here you go then.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/2014/dgreenfield/non-muslim-minority-facing-isis-genocide-in-iraq-beg-obama-for-water/

Good luck.

Blogger Matamoros August 07, 2014 10:16 AM  

"The concept in its modern sense was explored as early as during the 1960-70 years in the work on “war insurgency” by Evgeny Messner, the former colonel of the General Staff of the Imperial Russian Army. (in his book Insurgency or the name of the Third World War, Messner predicted that future wars would be won through subversion and organized revolutions carried out by special forces and terrorists"

http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/08/07/russias-war-against-ukraine-and-the-world/

Anonymous Curtis August 07, 2014 11:11 AM  


My VD but you're stupid. [You invited this language with your own] Most people in Gaza have demonstrated that they ARE WILLING to fight for Hamas.

VD answers.

(laughs at Curtis) Sure they have. Run along, little boy.

You got any fact to back up your claim? I'd say at this point about 99% of Gazans will fight or die for Hamas. You being so much dumber will know that isn't true.

Anonymous Curtis August 07, 2014 11:19 AM  

VD,
I'll let you in on a funny:
I edit wikipedia.
I tend to agree with about 80% of what you write.
Your, "run along little boy" disease matches your detractors disdain for you in spades but you seem to apply it like they do.
I'll tell you a thing, so you know it.

When you find that you cannot refute any argument except to leap out with a "run along little boy,"

you lost the argument. More than that, you prove as contemptible as the foe you hold in great disdain.

You putz.

Anonymous a_peraspera August 07, 2014 11:24 AM  

Of course most won't actively fight and die.

The more important metric is, how many Gazans passively approve of Hamas? How many would hide a Hamas fighter being hunted by Jews in their homes? How many would happily send a son to join Hamas? How many would bring food and water to Hamas fighters? How many would gladly tell lies to western journalists on TV about how the awful, awful Jewish soldiers beat up little Mohammed just for throwing one rock one time?

Probably a lot.

Anonymous Anonymous August 07, 2014 8:47 PM  

John Robb is worth following on this 1-2-3-4-G stuff. His latest post on ISIS is here

Anonymous pb August 08, 2014 2:43 AM  

Serge Trifkovic taking the same sort of line... https://www.chroniclesmagazine.org/israel-tactical-winner-strategic-loser/

Anonymous VD August 08, 2014 4:07 AM  

I'd say at this point about 99% of Gazans will fight or die for Hamas.... Your, "run along little boy" disease matches your detractors disdain for you in spades but you seem to apply it like they do. I'll tell you a thing, so you know it. When you find that you cannot refute any argument except to leap out with a "run along little boy," you lost the argument. More than that, you prove as contemptible as the foe you hold in great disdain.

The Times analysis, looking at 1,431 names, shows that the population most likely to be militants, men ages 20 to 29, is also the most overrepresented in the death toll: They are 9 percent of Gaza’s 1.7 million residents... ITIC subsequently updated its study to 300 reported fatalities and now concludes that “terrorist operatives constitute about 49% and non-involved civilians constitute about 51% of the names.”

Less than 9 percent is not 99 percent. Note, in particular, the phrase "non-involved civilians". You're an idiot. Now, run along little boy, like I told you.

Blogger Shimshon August 08, 2014 6:16 AM  

This is something I heard from a friend that's going around. Take with a grain of salt if you want.

Many of the Arabs who were captured or surrendered during the recent active hostilities so hate Hamas that often all that's needed to get them to talk is to treat them "nicely" (the word my friend used). Many of them have been a fount of extremely useful intel.

Anonymous Don August 08, 2014 11:42 AM  

Vox - Every single day I see pictures of my friend's family mostly little kids and old people killed. I know the family not political, not militant, educated, kind willing to befriend and associate with Christians etc and they are dying every day.

I used to be 100% behind Israel. Now I'm thinking they are making a big mistake with this operation. I don't think Israel is doing themselves any good with this. I don't think they have to sit and take missiles but they could have done this better.

Blogger HMS Defiant August 08, 2014 12:25 PM  

VD,
You of all people buying into a Times analysis and spouting it as if it mattered. Aren't most of the terrorists in the world these days named Mohammed? And what made you, of all people decide that terrorism had anything to do with names? Are you an idiot? What do names have to do with who will fight and who will die in the name of Palestine? You can fool yourself about the names if you like but they've demonstrated an unswerving devotion to Palestine and they'll die for Fatah, PLO, Hamas, or any other name you care to research. 8GW warfare won't change that.

When you want to debate what I wrote, just pull up the shit I wrote and start to refute it like a man and not like your some little pussy who has to dash off a letter to the Times.

You can see what I wrote way up there at the top. You failed on the specifics and never actually got around to the point.

Run along you little pussy. I'm tired of you.

Blogger JoaquinMR August 10, 2014 8:10 AM  

I do agree!

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