ALL BLOG POSTS AND COMMENTS COPYRIGHT (C) 2003-2019 VOX DAY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED.

Friday, October 10, 2014

The Ebola curve

EVD Outbreak Week 40 (PDF):
The total number of confirmed, probable, and suspected cases (see Annex 1) in the West African epidemic of Ebola virus disease (EVD) reported up to the end of 5 October 2014 (epidemiological week 40) is 8033 with 3865 deaths. Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and the United States of America. A confirmed case of EVD has been reported in Spain, but because the case was confirmed during the week ending 12 October (epidemiological week 41), information on this case will be included in the next Ebola Response Roadmap update.

The past week has seen a continuation of recent trends: the situation in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone continues to deteriorate, with widespread and persistent transmission of EVD. Problems with data gathering in Liberia continue. It should be emphasized that the reported fall in the number of new cases in Liberia over the past three weeks is unlikely to be genuine. Rather, it reflects a deterioration in the ability of overwhelmed responders to record accurate epidemiological data. It is clear from field reports and first responders that EVD cases are being under-reported from several key locations, and laboratory data that have not yet been integrated into official estimates indicate an increase in the number of new cases in Liberia. There is no evidence that the EVD epidemic in West Africa is being brought under control, though there is evidence of a decline in incidence in the districts of Lofa in Liberia, and Kailahun and Kenema in Sierra Leone.
Recall that back in July, it was reported: "The current outbreak is the worst ever. So far 467 people have died and health staff have identified at least 292 other suspected or confirmed cases." That was back in Week 25, so in the subsequent three months, we've seen the officially confirmed number of cases increase by 10.6, or if you prefer to put it in scary percentage terms, 958 PERCENT! According to this doubling calculator, the time in which it takes the outbreak to double is 4.39 weeks, so we'll know that if the Week 41 report contains more than 9,862 confirmed cases, the outbreak is picking up its pace. Either way, the slope of that curve in confirmed cases from Week 25 to Week 40 looks rather problematic.

As for the likelihood that anything but a complete travel ban will stop the continued spread of the virus, consider this report from the CDC entitled "Epidemiology of Travel-associated Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 Infection in 116 Patients, Singapore":
The fact that one fourth of the case-patients in our study boarded a plane after becoming ill and traveled despite having symptoms illustrates the role of travelers in disseminating infection in a highly interconnected world. It raises the question of whether exit screening should be considered. However, the effectiveness of exit screening will depend on the role of asymptomatic persons in transmission, and such screening will still miss persons who are incubating the infection. Exit screening would severely hinder international travel, and because of its questionable efficacy, it may not be justified and may be contrary to the intent of the International Health Regulations 2005.
So, wash your hands, stock up a bit, and avoid any unnecessary travel, that would be my advice. School vacation time is coming up in many countries in Europe in the next two weeks, so a lot of people have travel plans as a result. If things are going to go seriously south, we should know it in the next 4-6 weeks. To the right is a zoomed-in curve based on the actual confirmed cases reported by WHO from Weeks 34 to 40, added onto an averaged curve from the reported cases in Week 25. WHO only began releasing the reports in Week 34, but during those six weeks, the outbreak has gone from 3,000 to 8,000 officially confirmed cases.

Labels:

124 Comments:

Blogger Unknown October 10, 2014 6:48 AM  

Should I assume this advice applies to your American readers as well?

Anonymous VD October 10, 2014 6:57 AM  

Certainly. There are probably more cases there than in Europe now.

Anonymous Ain October 10, 2014 7:02 AM  

It's laughable that the United States was the only listed country that isn't a 3rd world shit hole.

Anonymous PA October 10, 2014 7:04 AM  

America IS a third world shithole.

Anonymous PhillipGeorge(c)2014 October 10, 2014 7:12 AM  

I keep seeing and hearing the claim that if the patient is asymptomatic they are not contagious. BULLSHIT in fifty foot high neon flashing lights. Silent carriers, not withstanding, how can anyone possibly know this? An: they cannot.
In science absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

1. Universal precautions. Don't touch your face/ head/ rub your eyes or eat anything without first washing your hands. [this requires a discipline like you have never exercised in your entire life to date]
2. Jim Stone suggests vitamin C, 200 mg/ kg/ 24 hours in divided doses at the onset of any symptoms. ie. a 70 kg perfectly average human requires about 28 tablets of 500 mg strength ascorbic acid per waking 16 hour day. ie. just under about two tablets per hour [of to bowel tolerance - look it up]!
3. You can make a colloidal solution of Cu/ Ag/ Au [electric generator] for about 30 dollars if you download a simple circuit diagram. A weak Cu/ Ag/ Au colloid will prevent a host of anaerobic organism secondary infections that could kill. Cu, Ag are in the same group on the periodic table - group 11.
4. Keep well hydrated. Avoid ginger etc./ natural blood thinners at this time.
5. Rest, keep up your vitamin D.

And the peace of God, which passes all understanding, keep your soul in Jesus Christ.

Anonymous MendoScot October 10, 2014 7:21 AM  

On the radio this morning, probable case in Brazil, possible case in Bolivia.

Anonymous Conrad The Crazed October 10, 2014 7:24 AM  

Sure seems like this entire debacle is being intentionally mishandled. By not immediately enacting a travel ban for flights inbound from Africa, it's clear there is a desire among the power elite to see this engineered virus spread on a global level. Not to worry though, as I'm sure there will be a magic supervax brought on the scene. Heck it might even be decreed as a mandatory inoculation. Bill Gates and the rest of the globalist one-world minions will get a huge boost towards realizing their dream of forcible population control through vaccinations (for the good of the planet, of course).

Seems to me either way TPTB win. If this ebola outbreak is for real, then they get the sheeplefied masses to beg for a clampdown (probably in the form of martial law) and mandatory allopathic 'cures', which also translates to billions for big pharma. If it's entirely an overblown false-flag sort of fear-mongering operation, they get the same result.

Suggest stocking up on lots of Vitamin C, D3, and colloidal silver. As Vox mentioned, avoid unnecessary travel, particularly of the international variety.

Don't even get me started on the 3,000+ servicemen/women who are being shipped into Africa to help.....by become transmission vectors themselves. At some point active duty folks need to start waking the hell up.

Anonymous bw October 10, 2014 7:30 AM  

This simply allows more Patents on yet more ebola strains by the CDC .gov
Sounds like a business model. For your ultimate good, of course.

BULLSHIT in fifty foot high neon flashing lights.
+1

Anonymous Michael of Charlotte October 10, 2014 7:31 AM  

Rush Limbaugh linked to audio of some liberal idiot who basically said we had a duty to Liberia because slavery, so shutting down flights from that country was out of the question. I used to laugh at White guilt like that but I'm not anymore since it will likely kill 1,000s if not 100,000s of thousands, possibly even millions.

But what's the explination for countries like Brazil, Bolivia and Spain who are not shutting down travel from those countries? Are they just following the lead of the US?

Anonymous DT October 10, 2014 7:33 AM  

Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and the United States of America.

Well, it's official. America has joined the list of backwards, barbaric, 3rd world shit holes.

All it took was 1.5 terms under a president whose lineage and upbringing traces directly to backwards, barbaric, 3rd world shit holes.

Two questions:
* Is Canada accepting immigrants?
* Can the Ebola virus survive in cold weather?

Anonymous The One October 10, 2014 7:44 AM  

I also agree people should stock up on colloidal silver. It has no effect o nEbola, but will help prevent the secondary infections that kill you.

Canada accept immigrants depending on if your occupation is in need. Not that it matters as by the time your approved Ebola could be out of control. Moving North is always beneficial, if only to get away from the Mexican border.

Anonymous A Plate of Shrimp October 10, 2014 7:47 AM  

"All it took was 1.5 terms under a president"

I'm certainly no defender of Obama, but in fairness, the decline really began to accelerate under Bush's disastrous misrule. And without Bush fucking up everything he ever touched, Obama could never have gotten elected.

Anonymous Sigyn October 10, 2014 7:49 AM  

All it took was 1.5 terms under a president whose lineage and upbringing traces directly to backwards, barbaric, 3rd world shit holes.

No, all it took was a long string of presidents rewarding people sneaking in from backwards, barbaric, Third-World cesspools.

Is Canada accepting immigrants?

Great idea. Go to where you're guaranteed not to get adequate health care during a pandemic crisis.

Can the Ebola virus survive in cold weather?

Cold weather is a great excuse to minimize your exposed skin and stay home, that's for sure.

Blogger Rantor October 10, 2014 7:50 AM  

Quarantine and sterilize always works

Anonymous Sigyn October 10, 2014 7:52 AM  

I'm certainly no defender of Obama, but in fairness, the decline really began to accelerate under Bush's disastrous misrule. And without Bush fucking up everything he ever touched, Obama could never have gotten elected.

I'd argue it goes back way farther than that. Not to the extent of a "doomed from the get-go" position, but we couldn't have become a nation willing to accept Third-World ways if we didn't have a significant population of, well, natural-born serfs.

Anonymous Roundtine October 10, 2014 7:56 AM  

I was in China during SARS watching the numbers tick up each week and cases come closer and closer geographically. Then all of a sudden, it peaked. The difference (besides SARS being a different disease) in China was that the government enforced a curfew, banned unnecessary travel, and quarantined much of the population. Students on college campuses, for example, were basically imprisoned for the last three months of the school year (they had a choice to stay or go at the very start, but after that could not leave). The U.S., meanwhile, is still lying about the enterovirus, just as China was doing about SARS initially.

And I take it that there is not a single Republican running attack ads pointing out how Obama has already killed American children with his illegal immigration policy.

Anonymous SugarPi October 10, 2014 8:00 AM  

I can't remember the source, but I read that ebola, like the flu, flourishes in cold weather. If true, the timing of Obola couldn't be better if it were planned this way ;-)

Anonymous MendoScot October 10, 2014 8:01 AM  

...aaand the Brazilian case flew from Guinea to Argentina, on his way.

One of the brilliant ideas of our Marxist government was trade and exchange deals with West African countries, so I see zero chance that they will cut travel.

Anonymous SugarPi October 10, 2014 8:01 AM  

Source may have been Mike Adams of Natural News ...

Anonymous Porky October 10, 2014 8:09 AM  

After watching a couple of obfuscating interviews and pressers by CDC head Thomas Freiden I can only conclude.....we're screwed.

Anonymous African Patient Zero October 10, 2014 8:10 AM  

I MADE LOVE TO A CHIMP LAST NIGHT. IT JUST HAPPENED. DOES THIS MEAN I HAVE EBOLA?

Anonymous zippo October 10, 2014 8:12 AM  

Granted that curve don't lie, but I just want to think about this for a moment in a non-mathematical, what-does-the-landscape-tell-us way.

In 40 weeks (that's a little over 10 incubation cycles) there have been fewer than 10,000 cases in three overcrowded unsanitary countries with poor public health records. The rate of increase notwithstanding, that still doesn't seem like an astronomical number to me in absolute terms when you consider the circumstances. Of course, if the curve holds we'll see astronomical numbers shortly, but given how dreadful the conditions are in these places, after 10 incubation cycles in three countries, shouldn't we have started seeing huge numbers already? Or is that just not how it works?

Does this mean that if it becomes established here, it will spread slower b/c of our superior infrastructure, or faster because of our greater interconnectedness and efficient travel? Or will those two factors sort of cancel each other out?

Anonymous Rothbardian4Ever October 10, 2014 8:12 AM  

I blame Bush and neocons.

Blogger Glen Filthie October 10, 2014 8:23 AM  

Gentlemen please! Don't panic! It's unmanly! Good grief, you sound like a gaggle of old women!

Yes, Rothbardian - me and my eeeeeevil neocon associates are responsible! Think about it:

Disease is the normal state of affairs in Africa. Those monkeys will shit on the sidewalk because they are too lazy/stupid to dig a proper latrine. The will pork their fellow monkeys at the drop of a hat without knowing a thing about whom they are mating with. They will burn down hospitals and kill the doctors and worship their spirits and witch doctors.

Once Ebola comes to America the huge bulk of the casualties will be limited to our similarly ignorant vibrants. Why bitch? Everyone wins!

Anonymous Conrad The Crazed October 10, 2014 8:38 AM  

Came across this article, which sums up this entire ebola thing rather well:

http://www.alt-market.com/articles/2354-an-ebola-outbreak-would-be-advantageous-for-globalists

As someone earlier up-thread mentioned, the CDC holds a patent.....yes a patent....on the ebola virus. It's not rocket science to figure out how this all adds up in light of that fact.

Anonymous VD October 10, 2014 8:47 AM  

Gentlemen please! Don't panic! It's unmanly! Good grief, you sound like a gaggle of old women!

Don't be ridiculous, Glen. Analyzing mathematics and digging out the half-buried statistics is hardly indicative of panic. You can bury your head in the sand and trust the CDC if you like, but some of us prefer to actually know what is going on, if possible.

Anonymous Michael October 10, 2014 9:07 AM  

This Ebola outbreak reminded me of something. Several years ago, the US government began buying up plastic grave liners, 7ft long and 3ft deep, by the thousands. Piles of them have been found lying about in empty fields and such all over the country.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m3zSDdm-SHI

This was also covered on Conspiracy Theory with Jesse Ventura. Skip to 2:40.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z_WO6UMFYsQ

The sudden Ebola outbreak gives credence to the conspiracy theorists who believed that the government, planning to depopulate the world, would either create or allow a mass pandemic to occur. Then again, perhaps Ebola is just a test run, so to speak, to see how well they can quarantine. Who knows? Regardless, the government's bulk buy-up of mass grave liners is disturbing in and of itself.

Anonymous Jeigh Di October 10, 2014 9:08 AM  

In the meantime...

http://canadafreepress.com/index.php/article/66586

Anonymous Jeigh Di October 10, 2014 9:10 AM  

Oh yeah, OT

Anonymous Salt October 10, 2014 9:11 AM  

Denninger has talked about this a bit, the stocking up part. Imagine shutting the door and staying in for perhaps ~6 months. Ugly, real ugly.

By the way, the new season of The Walking Dead begins this Sunday.

Blogger Nate October 10, 2014 9:24 AM  

"Denninger has talked about this a bit, the stocking up part. Imagine shutting the door and staying in for perhaps ~6 months. Ugly, real ugly."

City people...

This is not how the world works.

Going six months without ever leaving my property or letting anyone else on it wouldn't even remotely be a problem. Natural springs.... lake full of fish... meat game all over... fruits and nuts from the trees... giant garden.

Ebola could wipe out 50% of the US population and it wouldn't mean a damn thing to us.

Anonymous dh October 10, 2014 9:33 AM  

The CDC is very close to an international joke, and almost everyone in the medical community knows it. They have had repeated re-infections of antibiotic resistant strains in their most secure containment and treatment facilities.

Anonymous Cash October 10, 2014 9:53 AM  

"Denninger has talked about this a bit, the stocking up part. Imagine shutting the door and staying in for perhaps ~6 months. Ugly, real ugly."

I could probably survive off of squirrel alone for that long. I could even try to domesticate them.

Anonymous Roundtine October 10, 2014 10:06 AM  

I MADE LOVE TO A CHIMP LAST NIGHT. IT JUST HAPPENED. DOES THIS MEAN I HAVE EBOLA?

You moron. Obola comes from fruit bats. Don't have any sex with gay bats and you're ok.

Anonymous Alexander October 10, 2014 10:08 AM  

Cold winter would be great. Looking at how Atlanta managed to quarantine itself with the help of an inch of ice, that would be ideal for me if things went to shit there.

Obola will also inevitably give us a gas shortage when we need it. Anything to keep the denizens of the 285 inside their cage and not attempting to pillage the countryside...

I don't think they would be overly successful, mind you, but it would be one less thing to have to worry about.

Anonymous Stg58/Animal Mother October 10, 2014 10:09 AM  

Colloidal Silver FTW

Anonymous Al October 10, 2014 10:10 AM  

First reported case of ebola in Brazil, diagnosis still unconfirmed as of now.

It's a Guinean "traveler".

http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/cotidiano/2014/10/1530277-paciente-com-suspeita-de-ebola-e-transferido-ao-rio-de-janeiro.shtml

(in Portuguese)

Anonymous The other skeptic October 10, 2014 10:13 AM  

The CIA will find young journalists and mentor them. Suddenly doors will open up, rewards will be given, and before you know it, you owe your entire career to them. That’s essentially how it works. But don’t take it from me…

Hmmm, that sounds like a familiar story. I wonder if that is why Obama has done nothing about Obola.

Anonymous Stilicho October 10, 2014 10:13 AM  

You can bury your head in the sand and trust the CDC if you like, but some of us prefer to actually know what is going on, if possible.

Don't be silly. Glen is waiting for a vaccine. No scientific testing required.

Anonymous Foo October 10, 2014 10:16 AM  

As always The topics oft medicine and statistics provide amble opportunity to be amused.

Anonymous Stilicho October 10, 2014 10:16 AM  

Freiden... now you know what the love child of Elliot Spitzer and Dennis Kucinich would look like...about the same level of rationality and honesty you'd expect as well.

Anonymous hygate October 10, 2014 10:16 AM  

Ebola could wipe out 50% of the US population and it wouldn't mean a damn thing to us.

Until the 50% that survived goes on walkabout looking for food. Cause if 50% of the US died then you are looking at economic collapse. 50% dead is a "all the cities empty out as survivors scour the countryside looking for food" scenario.

If it's that bad you want to be:

a) In a defensible position
b) Working with others in your community

Anonymous Stilicho October 10, 2014 10:18 AM  

I MADE LOVE TO A CHIMP LAST NIGHT. IT JUST HAPPENED. DOES THIS MEAN I HAVE EBOLA?

Does Reggie Love know you've been stepping out on him with your wife?

Anonymous Alexander October 10, 2014 10:25 AM  

Yes, but the great thing is that the country has been so polarized on city/rural split - racially, economically, and politically; that even among neighbors who disagree and dislike each other in the good times, everyone's fully on board with keeping the refugees away.

Blogger rondolf October 10, 2014 10:37 AM  

"So, wash your hands". I'm not sure if that is a perfect preventative for ebola, but if it helps it could turn out the big genetic winner will be Howie Mandel. I always thought a post-apocalyptic world would be dominated be the testosterone engorged road warrior types, but maybe the new game will be indications of ocd.

Blogger YIH October 10, 2014 10:41 AM  

VD:
Don't be ridiculous, Glen. Analyzing mathematics and digging out the half-buried statistics is hardly indicative of panic. You can bury your head in the sand and trust the CDC if you like, but some of us prefer to actually know what is going on, if possible.
Or for Filthie: Vox's comment in editorial cartton form.

Blogger Nate October 10, 2014 10:51 AM  

"The CDC is very close to an international joke, and almost everyone in the medical community knows it."

When a tire company is better at stopping an outbreak than the CDC is... there is a problem.

Anonymous Noah B. October 10, 2014 11:00 AM  

"Ebola could wipe out 50% of the US population and it wouldn't mean a damn thing to us."

I hope you're right, but there are so many questions about the spread of Ebola that the .gov and media aren't even addressing at this point -- it's important not to be caught off guard. I've read that dogs (which probably includes coyotes), pigs, and bats can carry this virus. Quite likely you have all of those in your area, and it's impossible to keep them off of your land.

Perhaps more importantly, what about flies and mosquitoes? If someone a mile away from your property isn't buried quickly and becomes a breeding ground for maggots, how efficiently can those flies carry Ebola?

Food for thought.

Anonymous Edjamacator October 10, 2014 11:02 AM  

Once Ebola comes to America the huge bulk of the casualties will be limited to our similarly ignorant vibrants. Why bitch? Everyone wins!

It's the "bulk" aspect of that that is the problem. If it stayed with the diverse who have basically asked for it, that's one thing, but...

And what's the deal with colloidal silver? Wasn't that just debated a bit in another thread?

Blogger Dewave October 10, 2014 11:04 AM  

"Countries affected are Guinea, Liberia, Nigeria, Senegal, Sierra Leone, and the United States of America. "

One of these things is not like the other.

Or at least that used to be the case.

Anonymous Axe Head October 10, 2014 11:04 AM  

Africa is such a s***hole.

Blogger Nate October 10, 2014 11:07 AM  

"Quite likely you have all of those in your area, and it's impossible to keep them off of your land."

Mate come on. We know Ebola isn't spread that way... if it was.... the death toll in africa would already be in the hundreds of millions.

Ebola isn't new. We know a lot about it. We even know how to contain it. We just aren't doing it. Because racist.

Blogger dienw October 10, 2014 11:19 AM  

And we never will contain it

Blogger Feather Blade October 10, 2014 11:20 AM  

And what's the deal with colloidal silver?

Metals like copper and silver appear to have anti-bacterial and possibly anti-viral effects. That's why they make countertops out of them, and use them to treat lumber to make it rot-resistant.

You could also use non-colloidal silver . My mother swears by it for preventing respiratory ailments, and it even seems to be effective to alleviate shingles outbreaks. Or so I'm told.

Anonymous The other skeptic October 10, 2014 11:20 AM  

Mate come on. We know Ebola isn't spread that way... if it was.... the death toll in africa would already be in the hundreds of millions.

It is not clear that you have made your case. Mosquitoes and flies would only spread the infection more intensely within the area that it currently occupies, and there has been lots of under-reporting of infection and death rates it seems to me.

Anonymous Bz October 10, 2014 11:23 AM  

Those on the inside might look for code A984

http://www.hipaaspace.com/Medical_Billing/Coding/ICD-10/Diagnosis/A984

Anonymous EH October 10, 2014 11:24 AM  

Sub-saharan population growth is over 20 million per year, over 2300 per hour. Wake me up when the epidemic reduces that rate by even 1%.

Anonymous Noah B. October 10, 2014 11:26 AM  

We do know that this is already the worst Ebola outbreak in history, and there must be reasons for that even if they remain unknown to us. Something about this time is obviously different.

It's easy to write off West Africa as being a shithole where these sorts of plagues are practically guaranteed. But when healthcare workers are getting sick despite taking significant precautions, it's probably time to re-evaluate our fundamental assumptions about the transmission of this virus. Somehow, this strain seems to have a markedly lower oxygen sensitivity than previous ones.

Anonymous cheddarman October 10, 2014 11:27 AM  

Going six months without ever leaving my property or letting anyone else on it wouldn't even remotely be a problem. Natural springs.... lake full of fish... meat game all over... fruits and nuts from the trees... giant garden. Nate

Nate, are yout aking applications for indentured servants?

Blogger Nate October 10, 2014 11:29 AM  

"Something about this time is obviously different."

Sure.

The response has been limited by the idiot left screaming RACIS!

Anonymous Noah B. October 10, 2014 11:31 AM  

That's definitely been the reason why Ebola has come to the US and Europe so quickly. But how can accusations of racism explain the unprecedented spread of Ebola in Africa?

Anonymous cheddarman October 10, 2014 11:32 AM  

And what's the deal with colloidal silver? Wasn't that just debated a bit in another thread? - Edjumacator

Edjumacator, silver has been shown to work synergistically with antibiotics. The effect is not necessarily universal, but it puts more bullets in your arsenal if you are fighting off a seconday bacterial infection due to a primary viral infection. Espcially important if you are an infected child, asthmatic or elderly

If you think I am full of shite, go to pubmed (Natioanl Institutes of Health) database online) and educate yourself...or weed yourself out of the gene pool by following exactly what the "authorities" telly you to do

Anonymous zippo October 10, 2014 11:39 AM  

I wonder if ATM touch-screens are going to be a mode of transmission.

Anonymous Porky October 10, 2014 11:39 AM  

Natural springs.... lake full of fish... meat game all over... fruits and nuts from the trees... giant garden.

And Brazilian fartporn. Lots and lots of Brazilian fartporn.



Anonymous Laz October 10, 2014 11:40 AM  

"Something about this time is obviously different."

This time the affected village(s) weren't quarantined and then burned to the ground after everybody was dead.

Anonymous Concerned Rabbit October 10, 2014 11:54 AM  

Hey guys,

I know we've had our differences before, but I'm getting kinda scared. I don't have an orchard or a farm or woods to hunt in or a lake to fish in...

but I do have a really REALLY big lawn. That'll help some, right?

Also, for all the talk I've been really good at keeping the Africans out the neighborhood. I'll survive, right?

Anonymous Cryan Ryan October 10, 2014 11:58 AM  

I spent a few minutes wading through data on AIDS transmissions in the US.

Long story short, 2% of new infections are among heterosexual folks. And "most" of those are in urban centers.

If you are a white married X'er or boomer, live in a small town, don't let anyone bugger you, and avoid sharing needles with the local riffraff, the chance of you getting AIDS is probably about the same as getting hit by a meteorite.

Ebola may spread around and kill off a few million unwashed blacks, and a number of hillbillies, but if you have enough sense to come in out of the rain, you probably will not catch Ebola.

Now, let us get back to preparing for old age....and setting something aside for the X'ers in case they don't learn the ant/grasshopper lesson.



Anonymous Let's Hear It For Ebola October 10, 2014 12:59 PM  

"America IS a third world shithole."

Exactly! So, let this disease run rampant, kill tens of millions of people, and the Christians of the world can rebuild in His image.
The decline cannot happen soon enough!

Anonymous Dumb founded October 10, 2014 1:07 PM  

"I wonder if ATM touch-screens are going to be a mode of transmission."

So do I now that you mention it. Need to keep a supply of gloves in the car.

Anonymous Bug Out! October 10, 2014 1:10 PM  

Now this sounds wonderful.....

"Going six months without ever leaving my property or letting anyone else on it wouldn't even remotely be a problem. Natural springs.... lake full of fish... meat game all over... fruits and nuts from the trees... giant garden."

Where might this be located? Surely not our drought-prone areas of the country?

Anonymous Rally October 10, 2014 1:12 PM  

Vox, as a fellow Native American I am sick of imported diseases. Close the borders already like we should have done in 1492.

Blogger Nate October 10, 2014 1:25 PM  

Look kids... I hate to interupt your emotional outburst with reality... but if a bunch of rank amatuers from a tire company can handle ebola at ground zero... I think we'll be ok.

Anonymous rabid October 10, 2014 1:33 PM  

It's hard to accept that these doctors and epidemiologists couldn't predict the massive implications of this outbreak.

This from the WHO database on ebola:

"Community engagement is key to successfully controlling outbreaks. Good outbreak control relies on applying a package of interventions, namely case management, surveillance and contact tracing, a good laboratory service, safe burials and social mobilisation."

Does any of that really exist in sub-Saharan Africa? the most social mobilization we've witnessed so far is a mob to murder the aid workers. This whole scenario is facepalm worthy and decries the superior attitude of medical professionals.

Hate to say it but I saw this coming when ebola was first discovered. But what do I know, I'm a humble veterinarian. But if disease like canine parvo virus can spread round the world on the bottom of people's shoes, what chance does human science have in preventing the spread of ebola?

The only hope now is a second pass effect wherein the virus becomes less virulent. But that's going to take time. People have a lot more opportunities to spread this with a 3 week incubation cycle vs 5 or so days for the most virulent flu.

At least it seems the media is waking up to the threat that us tinfoil behatted folks pointed out long ago...

On the other hand the epidemic will surely prepare the landscape for a corporate farm takeover of Africa's most fertile regions without having to evict any farmers. Corporate farms are jumping for joy.

http://www.nation.co.ke/oped/Opinion/Agriculture-Food-Security-Green-Revolution/-/440808/2478230/-/t561jmz/-/index.html

Anonymous Dumb founded October 10, 2014 1:35 PM  

"but if a bunch of rank amatuers from a tire company can handle ebola at ground zero... I think we'll be ok."

But, but, white racism means we have to be more sensitive in the US.

Blogger CarpeOro October 10, 2014 1:35 PM  

"I'm from the CDC and I am here to help you. If it isn't inconvenient. For either of us."

Anonymous indyjonesouthere October 10, 2014 1:44 PM  

The parabolic curve looks like the Nasdaq index in 1999....and that didn't turn out well either.

Anonymous indyjonesouthere October 10, 2014 1:49 PM  

Nates right about the rank amateurs handling ebola but we have to remember it is professionals handling the outbreak here. And how did the Katrina response work out.

Anonymous zippo October 10, 2014 1:54 PM  

"a bunch of rank amatuers"

See that's the problem. Amateurs are better suited to handle a thing like this, because, not knowing anything and not having developed preconditioned habits of mind, they're in a position to see the situation clearly as it really is.

The pros will fuck this up completely (and they'll be in charge of fucking it up), because they've learned bad habits, they're naturally arrogant, the system is enormous and therefore not quickly responsive, and they've got hidden agendas they're beholden to w/r/t politics.

It really does blow my mind that Western governments are all so brazenly contemptuous of their own people and their own nation's interest. I suppose by now I shouldn't be shocked... but I still kinda am.

Anonymous zippo October 10, 2014 1:57 PM  

The Africans know what their own people are like and what works for Africans. Earlier outbreaks were successfully contained because the response was swift, brutal, and thorough. This one probably got out of hand b/c the focus was on treating the victims rather than brutally nipping it in the bud. Damn NGOs.

Anonymous cheddarman October 10, 2014 1:59 PM  

I repeat myself, but this is the sort of behavior by government that will cause the eventual breakup of the U.S.

People will eventually get tired of this crap.

Blogger Glen Filthie October 10, 2014 2:08 PM  

"Don't be ridiculous, Glen. Analyzing mathematics and digging out the half-buried statistics is hardly indicative of panic. You can bury your head in the sand and trust the CDC if you like, but some of us prefer to actually know what is going on, if possible."
----------------------------------------------------------

LOL, I have problems with that first sentence, Vox, but not with the rest! ;)

When I heard me and my neocon scum were responsible for Ebola, my modesty forbade me from taking credit where none was due.

To be honest, I don't trust the CDC either.

Blogger Nate October 10, 2014 2:11 PM  

"Nates right about the rank amateurs handling ebola but we have to remember it is professionals handling the outbreak here."

This whole ebola thing has been quite instructive. If for nothing else... the myth of the super competent high tech CDC has been thoroughly busted. The agency has now been exposed to be nothing more than a glorified version of the DMV.

Anonymous Porky October 10, 2014 2:21 PM  

To be honest, I don't trust the CDC either.

Well, they've been very good at controlling

ebola jokes.

That's almost as important as stopping the actual disease, right?

Anonymous Noah B. October 10, 2014 2:23 PM  

"Look kids... I hate to interupt your emotional outburst with reality... but if a bunch of rank amatuers from a tire company can handle ebola at ground zero... I think we'll be ok."

Yeah, but tires are an under appreciated marvel of modern technology. Face it, government sucks at everything.

Blogger Outlaw X October 10, 2014 2:56 PM  

The sudden Ebola outbreak gives credence to the conspiracy theorists who believed that the government, planning to depopulate the world, would either create or allow a mass pandemic to occur.

Two things I can tell you about conspiracy theorists. a) Most of them are well above average intelligence. b) They are usually right and the mockers wrong.

Blogger Outlaw X October 10, 2014 3:07 PM  

Ebola could wipe out 50% of the US population and it wouldn't mean a damn thing to us.

Nate, you have an advantage that most don't. Your wife is in the medical field. Most people can't set a bone or dislicated shoulder. Stiching up a wound while avoiding inferction and many other things are beyond the average persons knolege. I am self taught and have basic medical training. Let me recomend a book for the new comers. I bought this out of curiosity, it will tell you how to do much of this stuff. It even has exercises like using pig skin to practice suture/stitches.

Survival medicine handbook






Blogger Nate October 10, 2014 3:18 PM  

"Yeah, but tires are an under appreciated marvel of modern technology. Face it, government sucks at everything."

Sure. But this was Firestone for crying out loud. So we're not even talking about a GOOD tire company...

Anonymous Dumb founded October 10, 2014 3:23 PM  

Ebola wants to play the slots. Bypassed New Jersey.

http://www.mynews3.com/content/news/story/mccarran-international-airport-flight-quarantine/LJWYMIjKHUmqaWhi5Cn7KA.cspx

Anonymous Dumb founded October 10, 2014 3:37 PM  

13 Countries Urged to be prepared:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-10-10/ebola-s-next-stop-may-be-ivory-coast-as-un-prepares-neighbors.html

The Niger River is very close to one of the existing outbreak areas and could be a real conduit for people fleeing the virus.

Anonymous Salt October 10, 2014 3:51 PM  

Saw at ZH, people held for isolation at McCarran. Viva Las Vegas.

Anonymous Dumb founded October 10, 2014 4:03 PM  

Public Health Emergency declared in CT:

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-10-10/public-health-emergency-declared-connecticut-over-ebola-civil-rights-suspended-indef

Blogger Outlaw X October 10, 2014 4:09 PM  

The interview with 27-year Border Patrol veteran Taylor was first conducted nearly three months ago in July, but Infowars separately confirmed through other sources that the process was ongoing in the aftermath of America’s first case of Ebola which occurred in Dallas last week, including Infowars correspondent Dr. Edward Group, who spoke to senior Border Patrol sources at a recent medical conference who told him that teams of officials in Hazmat suits and vans were involved in the operation.

Explaining how it was unprecedented to see Centers for Disease Control officials working with Border Patrol and Homeland Security, Taylor revealed how illegal aliens with Ebola-like symptoms were being secretly detained and taken to an unknown location.


CDC “Disappearing” Potential Ebola Victims

This is good news, I think?


Anonymous Noah B. October 10, 2014 4:19 PM  

"This is good news, I think?"

It's like the parable of the old Chinese man, Outlaw -- it's hard to know whether this is good or bad.

Blogger rondolf October 10, 2014 4:52 PM  

"On Thursday, President Barack Obama said it would be "suicide" for Republicans if they do not pass comprehensive amnesty legislation". Could this statement be anymore ironically timed?

Anonymous Noah B. October 10, 2014 6:17 PM  

If Obama cared he would go to Liberia and see the sick people with his own eyes, and not dehumanize them by wearing a protective suit and treating them like hazardous waste

Anonymous Anonymous October 10, 2014 6:40 PM  

This is good news, I think?

They bussed illegals all over the country without telling the local communities. They are intentionally spreading this disease.


Anonymous The other skeptic October 10, 2014 7:00 PM  

They are intentionally spreading this disease.

Which is an incredibly stupid thing to do because of the unintended consequences.

How can those same illegals be encouraged to spend time with the elites and their offspring?

Anonymous Anonymous October 10, 2014 7:23 PM  

How can those same illegals be encouraged to spend time with the elites and their offspring?

I have had the same thought. Well, they have to want to go there. So, how do you make a disease infested illegal alien want to give Karl Rove a big sweaty hug? hmmm.....




Blogger rumpole5 October 10, 2014 7:36 PM  

On the second chart, why is the "deaths" curve so much flatter than the "cases" curve. Is that typical, or are a greater percentage surviving?

Blogger Markku October 10, 2014 7:41 PM  

On the second chart, why is the "deaths" curve so much flatter than the "cases" curve.

A death rate of 50% obviously means that the deaths curve will, at all times, be halfway between zero and the cases curve.

Anonymous bob k. mando October 10, 2014 8:16 PM  

not to mention which, people get sick BEFORE they die.

the order of events is:
a - Day 0, patient is infected
b - Day 7-21, patient begins to present with initial symptoms
c - Day 14-35, patient passes crisis point ... or dies.

so, on a weekly increment chart, final death toll is ALWAYS going to be lagging confirmed infections by one to three weeks.

and that's assuming that your reported numbers are a fairly accurate summation of the infection / death totals.

remember, 'official' numbers are what the bean counters have written down in their books.

it's a LOWER BOUND on the actual number of cases and deaths.

Blogger Markku October 10, 2014 8:42 PM  

final death toll is ALWAYS going to be lagging confirmed infections by one to three weeks

The "corner" is roughly at the same location in the cases-curve and the deaths-curve. Which seems to imply that stage a to b is not included in the blue line. By the time it is written down as a "case", the point of survival or death is already imminent. Otherwise we would see the corner in the lower line with a couple of weeks' delay.

Anonymous Noah B. October 10, 2014 8:54 PM  

Some other important aspects of this outbreak that are going unreported -- the media has been reporting that the experimental treatment that's been given to some patients is an extract from a tobacco plant, but I haven't seen in reported anywhere that this drug ZMapp is basically just antibodies against Ebola that are produced in a genetically engineered tobacco plant. Pretty simple really, but apparently beyond the media's ability to report. Data about its efficacy is pretty limited. Wikipedia has information about four patients who received this drug, and three of them lived. Also, I get the impression that the Spanish priest who received the drug but still died was extremely ill before he received any treatment. Obviously that's a pretty small sample size, so it's way too soon to know how much receiving the ZMapp monoclonal antibodies improves outcomes.

Also, a key to preventing an epidemic from spreading -- short of a cure -- is the ability to identify the infected before they become contagious and/or infect others. Most of the diagnostic tests I've read about use some form of RT-PCR. The bad news, though, is that according to the CDC, this technique only detects Ebola 3-10 days after a person begins to show symptoms. By then, they're infectious.

Anonymous Lumko Mntambo October 10, 2014 8:56 PM  

I'd like to acknowledge society's involvement in this epidemic and how the blog gives out advice such as canceling travel plans. The Ebola outbreak should be viewed from an economic perspective where it carries with it major economic repercussions. To name a few the infected countries should now invest heavily in the vaccine and prevention programs and should international travel be blocked momentarily this would put major strain on the economies of countries that import and export goods

Anonymous Noah B. October 10, 2014 9:05 PM  

The thing is, I know how to make a vaccine. With your help of only $10,000 I could begin at once...

Anonymous bob k. mando October 10, 2014 9:22 PM  

Markku October 10, 2014 8:42 PM
Which seems to imply that stage a to b is not included in the blue line. By the time it is written down as a "case", the point of survival or death is already imminent. Otherwise we would see the corner in the lower line with a couple of weeks' delay.




refer again to my last two sentences. having seen the PBS special on Ebola and observed other "non-official" reports out of west Africa, i don't have much more confidence in the accuracy of these numbers than Vox does in reports from the CBO or Fed.

that's why i highlighted that you should be considering these the lower bound of what is actually going on.

Anonymous The other skeptic October 10, 2014 9:51 PM  

The thing is, I know how to make a vaccine. With your help of only $10,000 I could begin at once...

This virus has so few genes and makes so few proteins that I wonder if it is even possible to make a vaccine?

You would somehow have to introduce GP, the virus-encoded surface glycoprotein (see http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3322298/) to a person without all the rest of the virus machinery ...


Anonymous Prince Obolobombo of Lagos, Nigeria October 10, 2014 9:52 PM  

The thing is, I know how to make a vaccine. With your help of only $10,000 I could begin at once…

It is my great and polite desire to assist you in this very noble effort kind sir. If you will please provide me with the account number of your banking account it will be my pleasure to immediately deposit into your account the balance you desire via direct deposit.

Anonymous The other skeptic October 10, 2014 10:29 PM  

Maybe you only need to introduce GP2 to create an immune reaction.

Anonymous Noah B. October 10, 2014 11:47 PM  

Prince Obolobombo, you don't know what this means to humanity. The thing is, I'm kind of locked out of banks right now because I invented a new engine that would have put the oil companies out of business, but the government stepped in and took all my money. Can you send cash instead?

Thanks so much.

Blogger Akulkis October 11, 2014 12:00 AM  


Once Ebola comes to America the huge bulk of the casualties will be limited to our similarly ignorant vibrants. Why bitch? Everyone wins!


This might be the only hope that Detroit has -- the problems in Detroit begin and end with the black transplants from the Carolinas, Louisiana & MIssissippi (who accuse routinely white Michiganders of perpetrating the Jim Crow laws -- talk about biting the hand that feeds you -- Michigan was the birthplace of the Republicans, and also the only party to put an anti-slavery plank in their party platform).

Anonymous bob k. mando October 11, 2014 12:31 AM  

Akulkis October 11, 2014 12:00 AM
Michigan was the birthplace of the Republicans



no, MI was where the *existing* party held it's first convention.

the Repubs adopted the name "Republican" in Ripon, Wisconsin.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_United_States_Republican_Party#Organizational_beginnings_.281854.29

which makes the modern outcome for Detroit ... ironic.

Anonymous Prince Obolobombo of Lagos, Nigeria October 11, 2014 12:36 AM  

Prince Obolobombo ... Can you send cash instead?

Yes, yes, of course the cash can be provided to you easily in Port Harcourt. When will you arrive?

Anonymous Prince Obolobombo of Lagos, Nigeria October 11, 2014 12:37 AM  

Prince Obolobombo ... Can you send cash instead?

Yes, yes, of course the cash can be provided to you easily in Port Harcourt. When will you arrive?

Anonymous Noah B. October 11, 2014 12:54 AM  

That could be a bit of a problem. I had to surrender my passport until I could clear up these absurd charges of running a Ponzi scheme without a license. It would be best for you to just send it by DHL.

Blogger Akulkis October 11, 2014 12:56 AM  

Ebola could wipe out 50% of the US population and it wouldn't mean a damn thing to us.

That would remove a lot of the welfare^H^H^H^H^H^H^H dead wood and revive the economy.

Anonymous General Zhang Yi-mu, People's Liberation Army October 11, 2014 2:27 AM  

"Ebola could wipe out 50% of the US population and it wouldn't mean a damn thing to us."

Please tell me more of this fascinating 50% population decline in America. Also, is the climate in Alabama suitable for the cultivation of rice?

Anonymous General Zhang Yi-mu, People's Liberation Army October 11, 2014 2:29 AM  

And also, would you and your community be amenable to cultivating rice at bayonet-point?

Anonymous Anonymous October 11, 2014 4:11 AM  

Well you just put the nail flush to the wood in one swing.

Anonymous Albert Pike October 11, 2014 4:20 AM  

“Lucifer, the Light-bearer! Strange and mysterious name to give to the Spirit of Darkness! Lucifer, the Son of the Morning! Is it he who bears the Light, and with its splendors intolerable, blinds feeble, sensual, or selfish souls? Doubt it not!”

Anonymous Sigyn October 11, 2014 6:05 AM  

And also, would you and your community be amenable to cultivating rice at bayonet-point?

No, but some of them would be happy to buy it as long as it's imported from your country. God knows we Americans don't deserve jobs growing rice.

Anonymous The other skeptic October 11, 2014 10:42 AM  

The flu season seems to be upon us. Have our wonderful leaders thought of the opportunities for HxNy and Obola to conjugate?

Anonymous Prince Obolabombo of Lagos, Nigeria October 11, 2014 12:02 PM  

I had to surrender my passport

I will be overjoyed to provide you with a fine passport from any of several countries of your choice, it will only be costing a nominal fee. Perhaps you have been hearing of the Bitcoin for payment?

Anonymous Ebola Cola October 11, 2014 4:44 PM  

"It's like the parable of the old Chinese man, Outlaw -- it's hard to know whether this is good or bad."

It's GREAT! Let us look forward to the decline. America is a moral cesspool. Time for cleansing. Christians, unite!

Post a Comment

Rules of the blog
Please do not comment as "Anonymous". Comments by "Anonymous" will be spammed.

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts