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Friday, December 26, 2014

Mammoth hunting requires no math

Which appears to be a good thing, seeing as how David Futrelle can't grasp the relevant rape statistics:
I thought I’d seen every variety of rape apologism known to humankind. But this is a new one for me: Fantasy author and garbage human Vox Day has decided that all claims of rape directed at white guys are suspect because … white guys don’t rape.

No, really. That’s his actual argument:

    White American men simply don’t rape these days. At this point, unless a woman claims it was committed by a black or Hispanic man she didn’t previously know, all claims of rape, especially by a college woman, have to be considered intrinsically suspect.

His, er, source for these claims? A post from the website Women For Men — founded by familiar names Suzanne Venker, Helen Smith and Christina Hoff Sommers — about a video of unknown provenance of a shouting match that involves a white woman accusing a presumably white man of rape. (There are no details on the alleged incident, and it’s not clear from watching the almost literally unbelievable video what exactly happened or if the video is even real.) Needless to say, even if the video is 100% real it doesn’t actually provide anything even remotely approaching evidence for Vox’s racist claims.

Which isn’t surprising given that they aren’t, you know, true. When it comes to rape, of course, whites and blacks are overwhelmingly — roughly 8 out of 10 times — victimized by members of their own race And in most cases, as is well-known, rapes are committed by people the victim knows, not the proverbial man hiding in the bushes.
Well, no, that's not "my actual argument". It's always amusing to see how the anklebiters try to pretend rhetoric is dialectic and vice-versa, depending upon what suits their purpose at the moment. Futrelle's posturing is nothing but pure rabbit rhetoric; statistical analysis is not apology. If he actually wants the dialectical form of the argument, it is this: all claims of rape directed at white guys are intrinsically suspect because white men in America are disproportionately disinclined to commit rape. If he wishes a dialectical debate on the merits of that argument, then let us entertain his critique, by all means.

But Futrelle has no genuine intention of contesting the dialectical level, he is merely countering rhetorically-charged dialectic with dialectic-flavored rhetoric. Nevertheless, let us take Mr. Futrelle's pseudo-dialectic at face value. According to the FBI, there were 13,886 rape arrests in 2012. Of them, 9,027 (65%) arrestees were "white" men, and 4,512 (35%) were black men. Wow, that just completely disproves my point that white men don't commit much rape, given that 65 percent is reasonably close to the white percentage of the population (72.4), right?

Not so fast. The FBI counts both white and Hispanic offenders as "white" for statistical purposes. But there are other ways to fill in the missing information, which is to say estimate how those 9,027 arrests are distributed between white men and Hispanic men.

While no comprehensive reports have been done, every smaller report I have read indicates that Hispanics commit rape and other sex offenses at a disproportionate rate; some even show that they do so in excess of the black rate. (It is a basic police heuristic that if it's a financial crime, it's a white; a violent crime, a black; a sex crime, a Hispanic.) But, in order to be conservative, we shall assume that the Hispanic proclivity to commit sex offenses is no greater than the known black rate. Since the rate of black arrests is 2.77 times the black percentage of the population, applying the same multiplier to the Hispanic percentage indicates that 45.6 percent or 4,113 of the "white" men arrested for rape were actually Hispanic.

This means that actual white men only represent 29.6 percent of rape arrests, which indicates that white men are 59 percent less likely to commit rape than the average individual and 85 percent less likely to commit rape than a black or Hispanic man. For those who think in ratios rather than percentages, this means that the risk of rape posed by the average black or Hispanic man is at least 6.76 times greater than that posed by the average white man.

Since a number of Mr. Futtrelle's readers have foolishly assumed that I am defending white men out of self interest, I should point out that for good or for ill, none of these statistics apply to me. While there are no relevant crime statistics for multiracial individuals, it turns out there are for men who are "American Indian and Alaska Native in combination with one or more other races". With a 0.59 arrest/population ratio, we are 1.43 times more likely to commit rape than white men.

So, while it is certainly correct to say that white men engage in an amount of rape these days, they commit such a relatively small percentage of them in comparison with their percentage of the population that if college women are reporting more rapes by white men than by black or Hispanic men, their reports must be regarded as statistically improbable, ideologically motivated, and intrinsically suspicious. But of course we all know that there are statistical outliers, given that John Scalzi is white and he has reliably informed us that he, for one, is a rapist.

As rhetoric or dialectic, the conclusion stands. Certain claims of rape are intrinsically suspect on the basis of their divergence from documented statistical norms.

Also, note in the comments this implied threat from the cyberstalker Yama. I am sure you will understand how it couldn't help but cause me substantial emotional distress and placed me in fear of death and bodily injury.
Nequam | December 19, 2014 at 8:49 pm
Ugh. I’m starting to think of creepy indulgent revenge porn involving sharp blades and a garbage disposal (so there won’t be anything worth trying to sew back on)

yamamanama | December 19, 2014 at 8:53 pm
Is it wrong that I thought of Vox Day going through that ordeal and smiled?
Yes, Yama, it is wrong. And your public expression of that thought is also, in light of your 56 documented months of cyberstalking me, most likely unlawful.

Labels: , ,

105 Comments:

Blogger Mindstorm December 26, 2014 6:53 AM  

A head hunt for repeat offenders?

Blogger Mr.MantraMan December 26, 2014 6:56 AM  

As I've long said the left is a big zero, there is nothing there. Basically only conservatives by playing along and pretending the left is intellectual does the left survive.

Blogger JACIII December 26, 2014 6:56 AM  

You aren't participating in approved groupthink, Vox. It's 2015! What is this "math" you speak of?

Andrew/Yama is a creepy bastard.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan December 26, 2014 7:09 AM  

I wonder if the rest of Yama's rabbit warren is comfortable with his violent tendencies, I wonder if they encourage those violent tendencies?

Anonymous zen0 December 26, 2014 7:34 AM  

>I wonder if the rest of Yama's rabbit warren is comfortable with his violent
tendencies


Another Jian Ghomeshi? (only more obscure)

Anonymous Rhys December 26, 2014 7:39 AM  

What is the breakdown between real rape arrests v regret rape arrests? Also what percentage of white rapists are date rapists v violent rapists?

Anonymous Strange Aeons December 26, 2014 7:42 AM  

I like how they desperately try to put up a facade of mocking from some lofty intellectual and righteous position but the comments quickly deteriorate into pandemic emotional incontinence.
Fear of facts? Not very cerebral, rabbits.
Feigned nausea at other perspectives? Not very "diverse", rabbits.
Fantasizing violence towards persons of Native American ancestry? Not very " social justice", rabbits.
Shake those furry little fists in rage and impotence. Hug it out, squirt some salty tears, and put a fresh layer of bandages on the facade.

Anonymous VD December 26, 2014 7:48 AM  

What is the breakdown between real rape arrests v regret rape arrests?

There is no information in that regard. However, given the huge gap between the number of rapes reported in 2012 and the number of arrests, 84,376 vs 13,886, combined with the fact that most rapees know their rapist, it is readily apparent that most rape reports are false.

Observe that the comparable numbers for murder, where there is no victim available to identify his attacker, are 14,827 murder reports vs 8,506 arrests.

Blogger Cataline Sergius December 26, 2014 7:49 AM  

An intriguing cris de coeur of a liberal public defender.

I am a public defender in a large southern metropolitan area. Fewer than ten percent of the people in the area I serve are black but over 90 per cent of my clients are black. The remaining ten percent are mainly Hispanics but there are a few whites.

I have no explanation for why this is, but crime has racial patterns. Hispanics usually commit two kinds of crime: sexual assault on children and driving under the influence. Blacks commit many violent crimes but very few sex crimes. The handful of whites I see commit all kinds of crimes. In my many years as a public defender I have represented only three Asians, and one was half black.

As a young lawyer, I believed the official story that blacks are law abiding, intelligent, family-oriented people, but are so poor they must turn to crime to survive. Actual black behavior was a shock to me.


The rest is surprisingly worth a read.

A man who makes his living from rhetoric and logic but not of course the truth. Something he is very good at not facing...even in the face of it.

Blogger Outlaw X December 26, 2014 8:10 AM  

I’m starting to think of creepy indulgent revenge porn involving sharp blades and a garbage disposal (so there won’t be anything worth trying to sew back on)

If this kind of violence is a regular part of his stalking with sexual deviance and violence then for the sake of your children it is past time for a restraining order.

Anonymous Gara December 26, 2014 8:21 AM  

There is no information in that regard. However, given the huge gap between the number of rapes reported in 2012 and the number of arrests, 84,376 vs 13,886, combined with the fact that most rapees know their rapist, it is readily apparent that most rape reports are false.

Not following your logic here. That no arrest was made doesn't mean the report was false, just that there wasn't enough conclusive evidence tomake an arrest. A quick search in wikipedia shows that most studies made on the subject of false rape accusations put the actual figure at around 5%.

Blogger Bruce Burns December 26, 2014 8:36 AM  

Gara...
An argument only possible if we A] assume the guilt of the accused without evidence.
In other words: throwing out justice and reason for liberalism.
If you actually USE American justice for Americans, you presume innocence not guilt.
I have yet to see two consecutive divorce cases among people I know without some BS abuse or rape claim for leverage on behalf of the female.

Anonymous Idle Spectator December 26, 2014 8:42 AM  

56 months? Four years, eight months? Since sometime around April, 2010? Sweet fucking Jewish Jesus.

Anonymous Salt December 26, 2014 8:53 AM  

One problem, Gara, is that studies such as these are as biased as the claim v arrest gap. To get to a 5% it seems apparent the bias favors the accusation.

Anonymous daddynichol December 26, 2014 8:54 AM  

The reports of rape also depend what's the acceptable definition of rape. Up until a few years ago, rape was defined as physical sexual attack of penis to vagina. Now, the definition is so gray, cloudy and ill defined, rape can mean a lusty look. If false accusations are enough to destroy an innocent man's life, then such a false accuser should be equally punished, but it will never happen.

I have to laugh when I hear SJWs and feminists declare themselves to be strong and mighty are, but flee to the shelter of anonymity when throwing about rape accusations. Meanwhile the male has to withstand the harsh spotlight of the justice system and public scrutiny.

Anonymous NorthernHamlet December 26, 2014 8:54 AM  

Not sure if it serves the point being made, but I would also throw in: Futrell is indicating no right to trail. shouldn't all rapes be considered suspect until proven in a court of law?

countering rhetorically-charged dialectic with dialectic-flavored rhetoric

If someone would be so kind: I can recognize that this is the case without it being pointed out to me, but I can't, however, recognize why it is the case. What aspects tell them apart here?

Anonymous Daniel December 26, 2014 8:58 AM  

Not following your logic here.

Follow it harder.

Anonymous Idle Spectator December 26, 2014 9:08 AM  

Look, I get it. We all get obsessed sometimes. You break-up with someone, and you might get real sad. You might drive by once or twice to old places for old times sake, remembering.

Or you get curious about someone you have not seen in a while. You check-up on the public twitter, Facebook, Myspace. Perfectly normal.


This is more like some guy continuing to come over to your parties and drinking all the beer and eating the food.

For years.

Get out of my house, asshole. You weren't invited.

Anonymous Sockpuppet December 26, 2014 9:13 AM  

Interesting that elsewhere, yamamanama signs in to post.

But he didn't at Dave's. Almost as if it wasn't him, whoever him is...

Anonymous The other skeptic December 26, 2014 9:31 AM  

As someone said over at Steve Sailer's, when the official stance is that women never lie about rape is it any wonder that there are a lot of false rape claims?

Blogger Remo December 26, 2014 9:38 AM  

I don't run a blog and likely if I did it would get about the same attention as the inside of a Radio Shack store - I have no illusions as to my writing ability or the eloquence which I fail to possess. Still the idea that someone would honestly have nothing better to do than to follow me around in cyberspace trying to attack every opinion, every post, every little thing that I wrote with snarky veiled threats strikes me as an intrinsically stupid waste of time. Does yama really have nothing better to do? I get that she disagrees with our host - okay plenty of people do. Some may even be correct on a couple of points but to make running around after someone trying to shout down whatever they write, what kind of basement dweller has time for this? How about reading a book or watching a sunrise or doing actual WORK. This is a perfect example of the way satan is described - delighting in the bruising of a heel while having your head crushed. What a thoroughly stupid thing to waste your time on.

Anonymous VD December 26, 2014 9:43 AM  

56 months? Four years, eight months? Since sometime around April, 2010? Sweet fucking Jewish Jesus.

It's fascinating in a way. He's actually been writing about me on John Wright's blog longer than I've been aware of Mr. Wright.

And while it is remarkable, do mind the language, please.

Anonymous VD December 26, 2014 9:48 AM  

That no arrest was made doesn't mean the report was false, just that there wasn't enough conclusive evidence to make an arrest.

Correct. There wasn't sufficient evidence available to make an arrest, despite there being an eyewitness present when the reported crime was supposedly committed. Which means that the report has to be assumed to have been false. Note that even if an arrest is made, that doesn't mean the report was true.

A quick search in wikipedia shows that most studies made on the subject of false rape accusations put the actual figure at around 5%.

That's not the actual figure. Those studies are bullshit. Read a few of them sometime.

Anonymous The other skeptic December 26, 2014 9:56 AM  

Correct. There wasn't sufficient evidence available to make an arrest, despite there being an eyewitness present when the reported crime was supposedly committed. Which means that the report has to be assumed to have been false. Note that even if an arrest is made, that doesn't mean the report was true.

This is perhaps the single strongest piece of evidence I have seen for a high rate of false rape claims. It should be propagated elsewhere.

Also, the innocence project is exonerating quite a few men who were convicted of rape because another man's DNA was present while the convicted man's wasn't. This is also indicative of some sort of lying.

Blogger sysadmn December 26, 2014 9:56 AM  

I have to laugh when I hear SJWs and feminists declare themselves to be strong and mighty are, but flee to the shelter of anonymity when throwing about rape accusations.

Alleged rape victims' names are not published, even when a case goes to trial. Unless the alleged victim is a minor, this is not by law. It is a result of white knighting by media organizations, in some cases codified by standards of "professional ethics".

Anonymous The other skeptic December 26, 2014 10:04 AM  

Steven J Gould often wrote that if you want to deceive others then first you have to deceive yourself. Thus the high numbers of false rape claims.

This is the first time I have found a use for anything Gould wrote.

Anonymous VD December 26, 2014 10:21 AM  

Interesting that elsewhere, yamamanama signs in to post. But he didn't at Dave's. Almost as if it wasn't him, whoever him is.

He doesn't usually sign in here either. And he is known to frequent that site.

Anonymous Daniel December 26, 2014 10:47 AM  

We Hunted the Mammoth writing about rape is fat-shaming.

Anonymous Cryan Ryan December 26, 2014 11:05 AM  

While reading through the comments of the Mammoth Hunter blog, I spotted this gem....

"This has all just made me very angry and very depressed. It makes me angry that this is how Vox believes a just society should be treating victims. It makes me angry to know that Vox believes guilt can be decided purely through physical apearence; and the continued existence of this type of ignorance and hatred in modern society makes me very, very depressed."

Let's break it down.

1) she is angry and depressed.
2) she is angry
3) she is very angry and very depressed.

So it's not really about truth or the statistics or Vox or whether people are being harmed by lies or behavior.

It's about how she feels. Angry and depressed. Times three.

Most of the comments are similar. It's about how they feel.

Anonymous kawaika December 26, 2014 11:08 AM  

Maybe you can help with this.

Anonymous The other skeptic December 26, 2014 11:10 AM  

Wow, that just completely disproves my point that white men don't commit much rape, given that 65 percent is reasonably close to the white percentage of the population (72.4), right?

In the DoJ report Rape and Sexual Assault Victimization Among College-Age Females, 1995–2013 they actually claim 63% white perps for assaults of females in college and 60 for those out of college.

However, they footnote that: dPrior to 2012, victims were not asked about perceived Hispanic origin of offenders, so Hispanic offenders make up an unknown portion of the white, black, and other race of offender categories

Indeed, given that there are people who identify as black who look white, it is probable that the black number should be higher than the 19 they give as well.

Anonymous The other skeptic December 26, 2014 11:12 AM  

so Hispanic offenders make up an unknown portion of the white, black,

I really like how they try so hard to reduce the impact of the black numbers.

Anonymous The other skeptic December 26, 2014 11:25 AM  

And 8 Campus Rape Hoaxes

Anonymous Harsh December 26, 2014 11:25 AM  

I’m starting to think of creepy indulgent revenge porn involving sharp blades and a garbage disposal (so there won’t be anything worth trying to sew back on)

It's fascinating (and I'm beginning to believe some sort of axiom) that liberals sooner or later include talk about their sexual perversions when commenting online.

Blogger pyrrhus December 26, 2014 11:31 AM  

Math and statistics are clearly evil because they show liberals are delusional and insane...

Anonymous Scintan December 26, 2014 11:40 AM  

A quick search in wikipedia shows that most studies made on the subject of false rape accusations put the actual figure at around 5%.

Go look up the data for FBI DNA evidence in rape cases. You'll fine that, even when DNA is found, 25% of the time the accused men are cleared and, 25% of the time accused the test comes back inconclusive. The tests only conclusively link the DNA to the accused 50% of the time.

So, even with the 'strongest' physical evidence available, you get a minimum 25% rate of false rape accusations.

Blogger Michael Maier December 26, 2014 12:06 PM  

To be fair, DNA exoneration doesn't really mean the rapee was lying if the accused is black. I mean, come on... we know they all look alike.

To quote Liberal Arts Barbie: "IDing rapists is hard!"

Blogger swiftfoxmark2 December 26, 2014 12:27 PM  

So, even with the 'strongest' physical evidence available, you get a minimum 25% rate of false rape accusations.

But DNA only indicates sexual contact, it does not indicate withheld consent.

Anonymous LES December 26, 2014 12:41 PM  

Ann Coulter on college rape statistics:
http://www.anncoulter.com/columns/2014-12-17.html

Blogger OldFan December 26, 2014 12:46 PM  

False rape accusations should be looked at as a part of the Leftists new arsenal of "lawfare", which involves using the existing legal /social system to destroy their opponents. This arsenal includes frivolous, but expensive lawsuits, SWATing (callaing the cops in hopes of getting you shot), Doxxing (trying to get you fired for having an opinion), and all of the campus "protests" whenever any different ideas are raised. They all take worthwhile legal /social mechanisms and subvert them by shattering any inhibitions on their use.

These "weapons" are not used rational players - so statistics & facts are irrelevant. They are driven purely by hatred.

Anonymous Student in Blue December 26, 2014 12:48 PM  

@swiftfoxmark2
But DNA only indicates sexual contact, it does not indicate withheld consent.

Hence why it's a minimum 25% rate.

Anonymous Comrade Questions December 26, 2014 12:57 PM  

Swatting and doxing is a Vox Day trademark.

Anonymous Jack Amok December 26, 2014 12:59 PM  

This has all just made me very angry and very depressed. It makes me angry that this is how Vox believes a just society should be treating victims.

Who were the the victims in the UVA case? Duke lacross? The 8 other stories The Other Skeptic linked to? Interesting that Futrelle doesn't even consider that angle.

Blogger LP 999/Eliza December 26, 2014 1:02 PM  

Good, these issues requires continued coverage.

Blogger LP 999/Eliza December 26, 2014 1:04 PM  

Futrelle also did not do his homework regarding Duke LaC, the accused were innocent and it cost one of their fathers a heart attack.

I dislike David F and Yama***

Anonymous from above December 26, 2014 1:36 PM  

Liberalspeak, anything coming from a liberal's mouth, is meant to confuse, disarm and paralyze their ideological enemies. Their sentences are cleverly concocted spells that take advantage of our natural reverence for truth and fairness. We are dealing with evil, dangerous and mentally unstable monsters. Their vision for the future explicitly demands our complete destruction. There is no discussion possible. This is psychological warfare.

Anonymous LES December 26, 2014 1:53 PM  

"Liberalspeak, anything coming from a liberal's mouth, is meant to confuse, disarm and paralyze their ideological enemies. Their sentences are cleverly concocted spells that take advantage of our natural reverence for truth and fairness. We are dealing with evil, dangerous and mentally unstable monsters. Their vision for the future explicitly demands our complete destruction. There is no discussion possible. This is psychological warfare."

This is absolutely the truth. It is taught in universities as "conflict resolution."

Blogger frigger611 December 26, 2014 2:15 PM  

And Rhys, Whoopi wants the stats on rape vs. rape-rape

Anonymous The other skeptic December 26, 2014 2:18 PM  

And Rhys, Whoopi wants the stats on rape vs. rape-rape

Shouldn't we call that Polanski-rape, or Woody-rape?

Hmmm, is that last one a double entendre?

Anonymous Shadowdancer Duskstar December 26, 2014 2:29 PM  

Send any information or juicy tidbits regarding yama to shadowdancercld (at) hotmail (dot) com. The e-mail in my profile may be compromised.

Cheers,
Shadowdancer

Anonymous Storm Saxon's Gall Bladder December 26, 2014 2:55 PM  

Government statistics are compiled by unionized government clerks who deliberately obfuscate the politically inconvenient. Thus there is no number for hispanics separate from whites. The sex offenders' registry does not distinguish between serial rape and public urination on one's own lawn. The numbers are difficult to follow because the union of clerks does not want you to follow.

"A quick search in wikipedia shows that..."
Wikipedia is worthless for any subject with religious or political controversy (and for leftists the political is their religion.) It's a wonderful source for the dry and the boring (what is the population of Brussels?) but i'd never ask it for statistics relating to feminist dogma or the biography of a conservative figure.


Anonymous wanderingAengus December 26, 2014 3:10 PM  

Ignore that comment by Shadowdancer Duskstar. That's just the Andrew Marston alter-ego pretending to be somebody else again.

Apparently that persona has been hanging around animals so long that it's completely forgotten how to be a decent human being anymore.

I'll try to rein it in again.

Anonymous Shadowdancer Duskstar December 26, 2014 3:17 PM  

Ignore that comment by Shadowdancer Duskstar.
Quit screwing around, Yama.

Anonymous VD December 26, 2014 3:45 PM  

Shadowdancer Duskstar December 26, 2014 2:29 PM

Send any information or juicy tidbits regarding yama to shadowdancercld (at) hotmail (dot) com. The e-mail in my profile may be compromised.

Cheers,
Shadowdancer


Just ignore it when Yama posts stuff like this. He's only digging himself in deeper by impersonating real people. I have two summary affidavits so far, I'm waiting on several more, the first of two background checks is complete, and everything will be going to the proper authorities in about two weeks.

Anonymous Gara December 26, 2014 4:29 PM  

There wasn't sufficient evidence available to make an arrest, despite there being an eyewitness present when the reported crime was supposedly committed. Which means that the report has to be assumed to have been false.

So, there was an eyewitness present in all the 85000 cases you mention? Where is the source for that? The FBI page makes no mention of that (http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/crime-in-the-u.s/2012/crime-in-the-u.s.-2012/violent-crime/rape) and what exactly does "present" mean anyway? having been at the same party type of present or actually watching the rape take place type of present?

And btw, that 84376 number was for forcible rape, which is only one type of rape. Having sex with a drugged or passed out girl (which is far more common) is also considered rape nowdays, despite how much serial date rapists would prefer it not to be the case.

That's not the actual figure. Those studies are bullshit. Read a few of them sometime.

What is the actual figure then? And from which source? You say those studies are bullshit yet fail to point out any specifics.

Anonymous The other skeptic December 26, 2014 4:35 PM  

And women in the military are having problems:

Female veterans battling PTSD from sexual trauma

Anonymous The other skeptic December 26, 2014 4:36 PM  

So, there was an eyewitness present in all the 85000 cases you mention? Where is the source for that?

Gara, you syphilitic fudgepacking fool. The victim herself is an eyewitness in most cases.

Blogger Franz Lionheart December 26, 2014 4:37 PM  

there was an eyewitness present in all the 85000 cases you mention? Where is the source for that?

Duh. Are you just playing dumb or willfully trolling? I cannot believe you are honestly that stupid.

But just in case, let me spell it out...

If a victim survives a physical, bodily committed crime, he certainly is a witness ; in most cases an eye-witness. This is what separates murder from rape... in the former case, the victim can no longer testify.

Anonymous Gara December 26, 2014 4:40 PM  

Gara, you syphilitic fudgepacking fool. The victim herself is an eyewitness in most cases.

So is a murderer when he commits the crime, yet if you say "there was an eyewitness present when the murder took place" most normal people will read it as refering to another eyewitness.

Blogger Franz Lionheart December 26, 2014 4:43 PM  

So is a murderer when he commits the crime

Wrong again. I think you Americans call it "pleading the fifth". But effectively in all Western justice systems, the accused cannot be forced to testify in court.

Anonymous Gara December 26, 2014 4:46 PM  

So what Vox is saying with "There wasn't sufficient evidence available to make an arrest, despite there being an eyewitness present when the reported crime was supposedly committed" is just that police need more than the word of the acuser in order to make an arrest? Sure. And water is wet

How does that prove that the reports were false, exactly? Is just proves that in order to make an arrest, more than the victims word is required. Vox is making a huge jump from "evidence wasn't strong enough to make an arrest" to "the report was false". It just doesn't follow.

Anonymous kh123 December 26, 2014 4:49 PM  

Well, Yama and forcible activities. Two subjects for the price of one.

And Futrelle's at least a bit braver variety of the r-type. He links to the article... with donotlink.com, so as to hide the offending URL from the rest of the world. A brave, brave witchdoctor, dancing feverishly on the front lines to have those mysterious shiny white objects in the sky drop their cargo and fly away.

Anonymous kh123 December 26, 2014 4:52 PM  

"How does that prove that the reports were false, exactly? "

Let's try the inverse of that: How does that prove that they're true, exactly?

Unless presumption of innocence need not apply any longer.

Blogger Harold December 26, 2014 4:53 PM  

I read once that in an average year, the number of rapes reported that were white/asian men raping black women was zero. Not so few as to round down to zero percent, but an actual zero. It's why the Duke lacrosse case was so important to the SJW's. It's tough now to find B/W and W/B breakdowns on that particular crime right now. It's almost like the powers that be were trying to hide it.

But rape after the fact reminds me of a joke that was old when I first heard it 40 years ago. About the hooker who went to the police station to report that a particularly well known person had raped her. And the desk officer looked at her and said, "But you're a hooker!" Ands she replied, "But he didn't pay me, so it's rape."

Blogger Franz Lionheart December 26, 2014 4:57 PM  

And now, Gara, if (and it by now appears a BIG if) you are capable of logic, let's see whether we get 4 by adding 2+2:

- premise assumed : following Vox's statistical argument, most rape claims of American white women versus white men are false
- legal fact : victims are witnesses and are obliged (not merely entitled) to testify
- accused are not required to testify
- lying under oath and /or during testimony is a crime in itself

Conclusion : in most white-on-white rape cases in contemporary America, the woman is the criminal - notably not the man.

That lying and destructive women aren't properly persecuted can only be explained by political expediency ; it is not a sign of justice.

Anonymous Gara December 26, 2014 5:00 PM  

Let's try the inverse of that: How does that prove that they're true, exactly?

They don't, but Vox is making the claim that most rape reports are flase. He is the one who should support that statement. Showing that most legal rape disputes end up in an inconclusive "he said she said" type of case doesn't mean that the reports were false. Most reports don't lead to an arrest precisely because presumption of innocence increasing the strenght of the proof neded to arrest somebody.

Anonymous kh123 December 26, 2014 5:01 PM  

...I know it's difficult Gara, but follow the example through: If there was an eyewitness, and the charge still falls through, then... what can be reasonably said about the nature of the evidence given?

Blogger Franz Lionheart December 26, 2014 5:12 PM  

They don't, but Vox is making the claim that most rape reports are flase. He is the one who should support that statement.

Wrong again, again! O. M. G. How can you get so many simple things so very wrong within this limited amount of space and time?

It's called "the presumption of innocence", again in basically all Western legal systems.

in order to make an arrest, more than the victims word is required.

Rubbish. And you don't need a legal education to know this to be false. The testimony of an honest and believable eyewitness has a high value in court. If, however, the witness is an unreliable woman, who changes her story repeatedly, where some of her statements contradict other parts, or physical corroborating evidence is contradicted (such as likely timing of events), then of course, any decent prosecutor and /or judge must throw out the case.

Blogger Shadowdancer Duskstar December 26, 2014 5:23 PM  

For the ones who are new to this, I will always, ALWAYS post a screenshot of my own comments to this thread as reiteration of proof that the Shadowdancer making this comment is the real one. (I made one wishing everyone merry Christmas that isn't recopied, but I am unsure if I posted it / can't find it.)

https://forums.affsdiary.com/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=52

The first few I made are on the Stalker Sticky.

If the comment is not screenshotted and posted on that forum, it is a comment by Andrew P. Marston trying to pretend to be me on Blogger or Blogspot, exploiting a flaw that allows him to pretend to be someone else.

My most recent addition to the Stalker Sticky was showing that Yama did in fact go after my hubby's old Livejournal specifically to harass him about me. Hell, Yama's harassed my housemate simply for living with us. So when it comes down to it, it's clearly visible who has the backing of truth when it comes to accusations.

I still have no idea who this Emma woman is that Yama keeps ranting about, and frankly, I don't care - I hope she has a fine, happy life, whoever she may be. Where's his proof of his accusations - oh wait he never has any. Andrew P. Marston is the master of one thing and it's making shit up - and I've proved that.

Anonymous Comrade Questions December 26, 2014 5:57 PM  

Why is there a video of her on Vox Popoli?

Anonymous Anubis December 26, 2014 6:07 PM  

"And women in the military are having problems"

Part of me wonders if this is a way of gaining extra military disability claims. I knew a vet that said he purposely acted crazy and that getting proscribed Prozac was an automatic 20% disability which pays out over $200 a month tax free + free drugs.

I hate to split hairs but mammoth hunting would require the spatial orientation part of abstract thought, that happens to be the portion of G weighted IQ tests that blacks do the worse on. If you ever get attacked by a pack of blacks keep moving and they will get in each others way because of that.

You have to go back to before 2007 to see Hispanic data split up. The funniest thing is if you look at the Texas 10 most wanted list its almost entirely listed as white criminals but only once in a blue moon is there a non Hispanic white on the list.

Anonymous Anubis December 26, 2014 6:14 PM  

Anyone know if comments show up on the mammoth hunting cat lady site Never mind I tried, its waiting moderation. I did the smart black night thing of putting a liberals e-mail as mine just in case.

Blogger MidKnight December 26, 2014 6:50 PM  

Y'know, Gara keeps dodging the elephant in the room. Y'know, the part where the DNA evidence (SCIENCE!! [tm]) shows that of suspects tested, 25% were inconclusive, 25% were not a match ,and 50% did match.

In short, 25% of the tested suspects/"persons of interest" did not even have sexual contact with their accuser.

Blogger tweell December 26, 2014 6:55 PM  

http://www.polizei.bayern.de/content/4/3/7/vergewaltigung_und_sexuelle_n_tigung_in_bayern_bpfi.pdf

Bavarian police aren't PC, so don't do the statistics massaging. To sum up their statements (my German is rusty, so if my summary is faulty, please say so), 50% of all complaints are obviously false, 2/3 of the rest have insufficient evidence to prosecute. They go after 7.4% for false rape claims, the actual conviction rate (compared to the total) isn't that much greater.

Anonymous Laz December 26, 2014 7:09 PM  

@ Anubis: It's a sure way for them to get a check and they only had to ruin a fellow service member's reputation and career to get it.

I have a good friend who dated a woman who was straight out of the Navy. She got $3000/month for disability. Turns out that the disability was PTSD from rape yet she happily gave birth to a child by my friend 10 months after they met. That was one of the most manipulative women I've ever met.

OpenID cailcorishev December 26, 2014 7:14 PM  

It's called "the presumption of innocence", again in basically all Western legal systems.

Also common sense. If we were talking about any other crime, all sane people would recognize that there will always be some cases where a person is falsely accused. That's a given, because sometimes people make mistakes or have grudges and ulterior motives and so on. Rape (or the wider category of abuse by men toward women) is the only crime where we're told false accusations never happen. Since they're the ones making such an unrealistic claim, it's up to them to prove it.

Anonymous Jack Amok December 26, 2014 8:25 PM  

The victim herself is an eyewitness in most cases.

Maybe Gara assumes she had her eyes closed.

Anonymous Anubis December 26, 2014 10:32 PM  

@Laz $3000 a month of tax free money for life, I think I might be tempted to lie for that.. Its not just $36k a year but tax free. There are also extra benefits for service connected disability over 50%

Anonymous Blastman December 26, 2014 11:53 PM  

We are dealing with evil, dangerous and mentally unstable monsters. Their vision for the future explicitly demands our complete destruction.

As VD has pointed out many times -- these people are a bunch of liars.

Consider Al Gore and the AGW (Global Warming) scam. Gore is an intelligent person so one can reasonalbly conclude that he knows AGW is a scam. This means that he gets up every day with the intent to lie -- and then basically lies to 100's if not 1000's of people. And he repeats this day after day after day. It's a truly remarkable level of depravity. These people end up spending their entire life spinning lies after lies.

And here comes Yama, another one of these liars and deceivers, who thinks he is going to enlighten the unwashed to some new vision of mankind. It seems to never have occurred to these people that their teachers and "brethren in arms" are a bunch of liars and deceivers too, so their worldview is completely distorted and based on lies too.

Anonymous Discard December 27, 2014 3:45 AM  

Blastman: Al Gore is worth $200 Million. You've got to work at evil every day to get that rich as a public servant.

Anonymous Shut up rabbit December 27, 2014 4:31 AM  

I can see an SJW singularity on the horizon:

The reality-deniers succeed in expanding the definition of rape to cover any kind of sexual contact in the previous year the woman decides doesn't fit with her current self-image...

...at the same time as they welcome their muslim overlords who declare women responsible for their own rape.

Much hilarity and much stoning ensures.

[OT: I'm beginning to think I might be a robot - those captcha's are unreable]

Anonymous JAC December 27, 2014 6:00 AM  

@The other skeptic

Steven J Gould often wrote that if you want to deceive others then first you have to deceive yourself. Thus the high numbers of false rape claims.

This is the first time I have found a use for anything Gould wrote.

It's actually nonsense. It might be easier to deceive others if you have convinced yourself it's not a lie, but it's by no means necessary.

The quote itself seems to be a corruption of this paragraph from Feynman's "Cargo Cult Science":
The first principle is that you must not fool yourself--and you are the easiest person to fool. So you have to be very careful about that. After you've not fooled yourself, it's easy not to fool other scientists. You just have to be honest in a conventional way after that.

Anonymous JAC December 27, 2014 6:14 AM  

Ugh, it looks like Blogspot stripped the <quote> tags out of my comment.

Anonymous Gara December 27, 2014 8:18 AM  

Y'know, Gara keeps dodging the elephant in the room. Y'know, the part where the DNA evidence (SCIENCE!! [tm]) shows that of suspects tested, 25% were inconclusive, 25% were not a match ,and 50% did match.

Since no source was provided for that, I can't quite adress it. Is the DNA mostly sperm or it also includes things such as hair??

And you guys keep dodging the point that forcible rape is only one kind of rape. Having sex with a chick who is passed out on the floor is considered rape too you know.

Anonymous Shut up rabbit December 27, 2014 9:16 AM  

What kind of "chick" would pass out in a room with potential rapists?

Anonymous Gara December 27, 2014 9:52 AM  

What kind of "chick" would pass out in a room with potential rapists?

Irrelevant. Sex with a passed out girl is rape, no matter what you think of her. Nobody other than misogynistic assholes buy your "bitch was probably asking for it" bullshit.

Anonymous Shut up rabbit December 27, 2014 11:03 AM  

Nobody should ever be raped but if you pass out in a room with people who could potentially rape you then, you are asking for it a lot more than some one who respects themselves.

I know its hard to understand the notion of r-e-s-p-o-n-s-i-b-i-l-i-t-y but if you don't want to get raped then minimize your exposure to situations where it can happen. Sober, intelligent, self-respecting girls will never be in this kind of situation.

Anyone else smell the rotten stink of the self-righteous "I get to do wtf I want but everyone else must restrain themselves in my presence" hypocrisy of the SJW in Gara's bleating?

Gara, grow up, drop the double standards and get some self respect and you will find you have fewer problems with criminals.

"Respect yourself, respect yourself
If you don't respect yourself
Ain't nobody gonna give a good cahoot...

Anonymous Sam the Man December 27, 2014 11:27 AM  

Gara, the study that showed 25 percent were cleared by DNA was from the FBI. You have to know that if you can read at a second grade level, it was posted in this thread @ 11:40.

Seeing as you just keep posting crap,ignore the evidence posted and refuse to come up with any real facts, just vague grips, you must be a troll.

Put up facts, with sources to back up your arguments or shut up...troll

Anonymous Idle Spectator December 27, 2014 12:15 PM  

And while it is remarkable, do mind the language, please.

I was confused for a second. "What the eff?" Then I remembered this.

Yeah, you are real tight with that Jesus fellow.

Anonymous Gara December 27, 2014 3:27 PM  

Gara, the study that showed 25 percent were cleared by DNA was from the FBI. You have to know that if you can read at a second grade level, it was posted in this thread @ 11:40.

Funny that you tell me to put up facts with sources when that 25% figure was posted with no source or link to back it up.

Anonymous Gara December 27, 2014 3:38 PM  

Sober, intelligent, self-respecting girls will never be in this kind of situation.

What part of "irrelevant" don't you understand? It can be about the dumbest, most irresponsible girl in the world, having sex with her while she is passed out on the floor still counts as rape according to most western jurisdictions. Even if she is stupid.Even is she is a slut. Even if she is a drug addict. It doesn't matter. It is still rape. You can try to change the topic and scream about how those girls where "asking for it" until your face turns blue, it won't change that simple fact.

Anonymous Shut up rabbit December 27, 2014 3:51 PM  

...and if they are self-respecting girls who don't get drunk and pass out in the presence of untrustworthy strangers it won't happen at all!. What part of "responsibility" do you not understand?

Anonymous Sam the Man December 27, 2014 9:46 PM  

Gara,

You are disingenuous at best. You said they gave no source, when in fact they gave the source for the material (FBI study). You stated because they gave no source you could not address the argument

Now you insist on folks putting up links? I have seen no such links from you on any of your assertions. You have not given even any source for any of your assertions. They have given you the source. If you doubt it and wish to dispute it you can do the work to read the source, it is not up to the folks who cite said source to give you a copy of it.

The fact is you are mentally lazy and, in the vernacular, throwing up a cloud of henshit to avoid addressing the real issue. Which is there is an awful lot of fake rape claims, which is despicable.

Anyway I still contend you are a troll. I will not respond to you again, unless you behave in a honest manner of intellectual debate.

Anonymous MoreLies December 27, 2014 10:31 PM  

This means that actual white men only represent 29.6 percent of rape arrests, which indicates that white men are 59 percent less likely to commit rape than the average individual and 85 percent less likely to commit rape than a black or Hispanic man. For those who think in ratios rather than percentages, this means that the risk of rape posed by the average black or Hispanic man is at least 6.76 times greater than that posed by the average white man.

Actually, the number of arrests for rape does not really 'prove' that, or anything else, regarding how many rapes are actually occuring. Several reasons for that:

1. Some races of women may be more inclined to make false accusations of rape.
2. Some races of women may be more inclined to not report rape (as is the case in Muslim countries, reporting rape there often results in the woman being executed).
3. The police may be more inclined to arrest men of certain races than of others.
4. You have failed to mention how many of the arrests were for consensual sex, with a technically underage partner.

Try learning some real statistics before you babble about them

Anonymous MoreLies December 27, 2014 10:39 PM  

Which means that the report has to be assumed to have been false.

It means it is assumed to be false in a legal sense, due to the fact that if a perp cannot be proven guilty, he is legally assumed to be innocent. It is nevertheless possible that in objective reality, the perp actually did commit the crime, and it simply can't be sufficiently proven. Claiming that because an event cannot be sufficiently proven in a legal sense to justify an arrest or a guilty verdict in court thereby constitutes absolute 'proof' as to it not having occured in reality is dishonest. It merely means that it can't be proven one way or the other.

OpenID cailcorishev December 27, 2014 11:59 PM  

Irrelevant. Sex with a passed out girl is rape, no matter what you think of her.

So you would have turned in an escaped slave in antebellum Illinois because that's what the law required, right?

As for the question you're trying to shrug off with an appeal to authority, it's relevant to whether that law is moral or should be opposed.

It's relevant to whether such a law makes sense and can be enforced without harming more innocents than the criminals it punishes.

It's relevant to whether such a law may have unexpected consequences, like girls getting themselves into dangerous situations because they expect the law to keep them safe.

It's relevant to whether enforcing such a law may cause a backlash that would leave girls in danger from more than their own foolish choices.

Anonymous kh123 December 28, 2014 3:02 AM  

"Try learning some real statistics before you babble about..."

"It is nevertheless possible that in objective reality..."


Imagined by you is thus true; inconclusive by your standard is thus false.

Thank you for providing a brush-up example of Vox's Second Law of Critical Dynamics in action. These in-the-field observations of the wild type in native habitat prove to be quite valuable.

"Claiming that because an event cannot be sufficiently proven in a legal sense to justify an arrest or a guilty verdict in court thereby constitutes absolute 'proof' as to it not having occured in reality is dishonest."

But wait, I thought... if it wasn't conclusively proven... then one can't blather on about...

"Actually, the number of arrests for rape does not really 'prove' that, or anything else, regarding how many rapes are actually occuring. Several reasons for that:"

That's really beautiful, how you waved your hand like that. They teach you that in Womyn's Studies, or is that more a sorority thing you pick up later on.

Anonymous Statists are so dull December 28, 2014 3:53 AM  

A BBC program on the muslim pedophile rape gangs in UK was an exercise in stupidity. One of the rape gang apologists pulled out the statistic that most rapes in UK were by white men; 30% in fact. He never mentioned that whites are around 87% of population while the 5% muslim population were responsible for 28% of rapes!. Just 2% less for almost 1/20th of the numbers

The most shocking thing was how the harridans and the betas in the audience lapped it up while the one guy who spoke up against muslim pedophile rape gangs was hounded and attacked by everyone.

Its the same insanity clearly demonstrated by troll-Gara above but on a national scale.

SJW: "Rape is horrible!"
Normal: "Well end muslim pedophile rape gangs and stop girls being sluts."
SJW: "Nooo! Never! Thats racisss and sexisss!

Anonymous MoreLies December 30, 2014 3:01 AM  

kh123 wrote: **That's really beautiful, how you waved your hand like that. They teach you that in Womyn's Studies, or is that more a sorority thing you pick up later on.**

Soo... what you are saying here, is that if legally proven trumps actual physical reality, if a woman from, say 1970 (or whatever past date might be appropriate) accused a man of raping her, then after the advent of DNA sequencing, a re-examination of the evidence proves that the DNA in the sperm samples could not possibly have come from the man in question, he should certainly not be released from jail, because 'legally proven proves it is true!'. Or do you want that to be the case only when it favors men, but not when it favors women?

Anonymous MoreLies December 30, 2014 3:21 AM  

**Rape (or the wider category of abuse by men toward women) is the only crime where we're told false accusations never happen.**

Well, why not, since we are also told, by other parties, that rape is the ONLY crime which is never-ever unreported.

OpenID cailcorishev December 30, 2014 6:38 AM  

MoreLies, nope, never heard that claim, and don't even know what the point of it would be. Plenty of rapes obviously go unreported, especially when men are the victims. What are you talking about? Try to make sense.

Anonymous MoreLies December 31, 2014 3:51 AM  

What are you talking about? Try to make sense.

Try to keep up. Nobody, and I do mean nobody, can accurate make the claims that Beale has had, given only the particular statistical information he has presented. There is a REASON why science experiments are conducted in a very rigorous double-blind format with controls. You can't reach anything resembling an accurate conclusion without conducting an experiment in that way.

The legal problems of accusations of rape, arrests for rape, and convictions for rape are extremely complicated. Among other factors that can't just be handwaved away to reach a prefered woman-hating (or man hating) conclusion are:
1. Laws that vary from place to place
2. Mal Prohibitum definitions of rape (such as statory rape of a consenting 17 year old)
3. False accusations of rape.
4. Unreported rapes.
5. Erroneous convictions of rape
6. Erroneous acquittals of rape.

You cannot simply take one factor (or a few selected factors) that 'proves' your preferred point, and ignore everything else. Not if this point 'proves' that women are rotten, not if it 'proves' that men are rotten, not if it 'proves' that all rapes are actually commited by the abominable snowman. Society is so complex, that about the only statement that can be made accurately is that any possible scenario you can think of regarding rape, false and true accusations of rape, arrests, convictions and acquittals for rape, and whatever numbers and combinations of genders you propose, which are not actually prevented by some law of physics has probably occured at some point, somewhere. Most likely more than once.

OpenID cailcorishev December 31, 2014 9:47 AM  

Nobody, and I do mean nobody, can accurate make the claims that Beale has had

I wonder: back in Mark Twain's day, did people who disliked him write letters to the editor calling him "Clemens," thinking they were scoring some sort of snark points?

You cannot simply take one factor (or a few selected factors) that 'proves' your preferred point, and ignore everything else.

Sure you can. Who's to stop you? The left has been doing it for ages, and saying it's okay because concepts like "truth" and "proof" are outdated and don't really exist anyway. And now that some on the right are willing to play by their rules and they're getting a dodge ball in the face once in a while, they want to take their ball and go home? Well, what if we keep playing?

Anonymous MoreLies January 02, 2015 12:33 AM  

Sure you can. Who's to stop you? The left has been doing it for ages, and saying it's okay because concepts like "truth" and "proof" are outdated and don't really exist anyway. And now that some on the right are willing to play by their rules and they're getting a dodge ball in the face once in a while, they want to take their ball and go home?

The problem here is that you are assuming that everyone who objects to invalid claims by the right must necessarily be on the left. You also think that supposedly 'moral' people can play by immoral rules, but still remain moral.

Here's the thing - I don't know whether or not white women are making false accusations of rape, or in what numbers/percentages they might be doing so. However, even if you assume for the sake of argument that large numbers (however you choose to define that) of white women are making false accusations of rape, that fact does not prove anything about whether or not white men are committing rape, or in what numbers they may be doing so.

To help you understand why, consider a scenario in which teenagers in some particular town suddenly decide it would be interesting and funny to call in numerous false alarms to the local fire department. The fact that there are suddenly numerous false alarms to the fire department in this town does not mean that no more buildings in the town are actually catching on fire. Those are two entirely different subjects, and information on one of those subjects tells you absolutely nothing about the other. I would also be highly suspicious of someone who claimed that 'numerous false alarms' somehow proved there were no actual fires. I would think that such a person was either a pyromaniac or a professional arsonist.

Anonymous Reaper January 08, 2015 10:57 AM  

And if the teenagers kept making false fire reports, after some time people might come to believe that there are a lot more fires than there actually are, causing them to build more firestations and hire more firemen.
Then, if someone actually spotted the false reports, they would be labelled fire-apologists in order to protect the livelihood of those who make a living off of fighting fake fires.

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