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Monday, December 08, 2014

The birthrates fall

The US birthrate falls further below replacement level. But it's okay, because immigration!
The number of women in the United States who gave birth dropped last year, according to federal statistics released Thursday, extending the decline for a sixth year. The National Center for Health Statistics reported Thursday that there were 3.93 million births in the United States in 2013, down slightly from 3.95 million in 2012, but 9 percent below the high in 2007.

According to the report, the general fertility rate in the United States — the average number of babies women from 15 to 44 bear over their lifetime — dropped to a record low last year, to 1.86 babies, well below the 2.1 needed for a stable population. For every 1,000 women ages 15 to 44, there were 62.5 births in 2013, compared with 63 the previous year.

The decline is especially notable because the number of women in their prime childbearing years, 20 to 39, has been growing since 2007. Some demographers said the numbers were not cause for concern.

“Americans haven’t worried much about birthrates in the past, because we have the faucet of immigration to turn on and off,” said Andrew J. Cherlin, a family demographer at Johns Hopkins University.
Absolutely. After all, swapping an -1SD IQ Guatamalan immigrant who doesn't speak English for the native child of +2 SD white parents isn't dysgenic or dyscivic at all, right? Such an exchange is not going to have any problematic long-term consequences in a world that we're told is going to be getting more competitive and require more cognitive capacity to be economically productive in the future, n'est-ce pas?

It looks rather like a vicious cycle has been established. The economy drives down birth rates, which results in less educable lower-IQ immigrants being substituted for higher educated, higher-IQ natives, which hurts the economy....

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50 Comments:

Anonymous Stg58 / Animal Mother December 08, 2014 7:35 AM  

Magic borders yeah!

Anonymous fnn December 08, 2014 7:43 AM  

The same people who think that borders are relic also think that they are barbaric relics.

Anonymous Roundtine December 08, 2014 7:53 AM  

Sometimes I wonder if we'll have a national minimum income because automation software and robotics will exceed the abilities of low IQ people. Then I remember open borders, and laugh.

Anonymous Musashi December 08, 2014 8:01 AM  

The will to live has left us.

Anonymous Check 19th Cent Census Records for Children December 08, 2014 8:05 AM  

Some demographers said the numbers were not cause for concern.

Based on what specific world view, desired outcome, goal, or agenda??

Blogger kelfa23 December 08, 2014 8:06 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger kelfa23 December 08, 2014 8:08 AM  

We're on our third child, but I'm working on an exit plan or at least dual citizenship. Will the last person to leave the U.S. please turn off the lights? Thanks

Blogger Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus December 08, 2014 8:12 AM  

It's almost like it was planned or something.

Will the last person to leave the U.S. please turn off the lights? Thanks

There probably won't be functioning electricity by that point.

Blogger pdwalker December 08, 2014 8:18 AM  

There is always China!

Anonymous FrankNorman December 08, 2014 8:19 AM  

Not a cause for concern for who? For the people of that country, who are failing to reproduce their kind, it should be a concern.

The ruling elite, on the other hand, seem not to care. In their worldview, they own the country, the rest of the people there are mere tenants, or even squatters.
And thus replaceable.

Anonymous Luke December 08, 2014 8:25 AM  

The U.S. is getting to be in the same situation as Europe, and Japan before that. Before anyone yawns that I'm being trite in pointing out the long-known, understand that I'm referring to the only plausible (if highly unlikely) voluntary solution as well as the problem.

That is, it's surely already known (in some detail) by people who study such things at what level of earning income and taxation/regulation (with affirmative action/EEO nonsense, encouragement of immigration, etc., being regulatory) productive native-born potentially-marriageable people will have children at replacement rate. Then, the gov't would have to reduce taxation/regulation down to that level, no matter now little money that leaves for pensions/Social Security/Medicare/various other old-age welfare. With our ever more deindustrialized/irreligious/ feminist/abortion and contraception encouraging/misandrist culture and history set in ever-deepening ruts over the past 50 years or so, of course, that level may not exist on the positive side of taxation...

Blogger Northern Hamlet December 08, 2014 8:32 AM  

We would have 5 or 6 more if I could get the money where it needs to be.

Blogger Laguna Beach Fogey December 08, 2014 8:34 AM  

What can go wrong?

Anonymous Paul December 08, 2014 8:35 AM  

"ne c'est pas?"

I'm thinking you meant n'est-ce pas.

Blogger David December 08, 2014 8:36 AM  

No trend lasts forever.

The current trends have coincided with the longest social mood mania in history, giving them the appearance of permanence.

Like the perpetual bull market, this is but an illusion.

Anonymous Anonymous December 08, 2014 8:38 AM  

I don't like to mention IQ as a reason not to allow millions of low IQ to infiltrate the US, because some idiot will always remark that's why we need high IQ Asians.

"Asian-Americans make up half of the Bay Area's technology workforce, and their double-digit employment gains came from jobs lost among white tech workers, according to an analysis by this newspaper of Census Bureau data released Thursday." San Jose Mercury News.

High IQ probably replace more whites than the low IQ's.

Unadorned

Anonymous dh December 08, 2014 8:39 AM  

This phenomenon also, ironically, will inevitably lead to less equality and more segregation. It won't take long for those on the north side of a 3SD gap to realize that yes, they really are better than the vast hordes of immigrants and their geographically upgraded offspring.

OpenID gnardopolo December 08, 2014 8:40 AM  

I'd be curious to break down the stats by state: are the most economically prosperous more or less likely to have low birth rates? Or is there a correlation at all? My guess is that the more religious the population of a state is (among natives), the higher the birthrate.

Blogger pyrrhus December 08, 2014 8:48 AM  

The US doesn't need more population at all; it was fine with 150 million. But adding low IQ, illiterate, violent, welfare seeking immigrants will have catastrophic effects.
North Asians have high IQs, but they also have genes for conformity and obedience due to millennia of severe repression, hence few scientific prizes, explorers, etc. Only northern Europeans seem prone to challenge existing ideas and conventions, hence they have been responsible for most progress.

Anonymous VD December 08, 2014 8:54 AM  

I'm thinking you meant n'est-ce pas.

Corrected. I loathe French spelling. German and Italian are so much easier.

Anonymous Stg58 / Animal Mother December 08, 2014 9:15 AM  

Isn't "loathe" a French word? Just saying...

Anonymous indpndnt December 08, 2014 9:22 AM  

The left enjoys saying things like "you didn't build that" as a justification for various taxes. I think that immigrants, since they definitely didn't build anything in the country they are moving to, should be expected to pay much much higher taxes for a while. It's only consistent with the ideology!

Anonymous The other skeptc December 08, 2014 9:35 AM  

It reminds me of Russia before a certain group started leaving.

Much does.

OpenID bc64a9f8-765e-11e3-8683-000bcdcb2996 December 08, 2014 9:40 AM  

"After all, swapping an -1SD IQ Guatamalan immigrant who doesn't speak English for the native child of +2 SD white parents isn't dysgenic or dyscivic at all, right?"

So, has anyone mentioned the first ten minutes of the movie "Idiocracy" yet?

CaptDMO

Anonymous Cryan Ryan December 08, 2014 9:42 AM  

There is good news here for some folks. If you are fairly intelligent and have faith and a decent work ethic, you will stand out in comparison to the hordes of lettuce pickers, nose pickers, slouching millennials with toothpick arms, and hooded looter thugs.

On the other hand, if you have bad posture from staring at a gadget 24/7, have no faith in a higher power, are dumb as hell, cannot get up in the morning, eat a diet of highly processed starchy carbs, and stay up late staring at a screen, well...the immigrant invasion is irrelevant. You're screwed anyway.

Bottom line...yeah the future sucks for some people...

don't be one of them!

Anonymous Roundtine December 08, 2014 9:55 AM  

I'd be curious to break down the stats by state: are the most economically prosperous more or less likely to have low birth rates?

Disposable income is more important than overall prosperity. The sweet spot is moderately prosperous areas with low taxes, where home prices are low.

Blogger Matamoros December 08, 2014 9:58 AM  

Declining birthrates among whites in the North has been true for the last 50 years. Maybe one or two children. And the pro-Abortion women have been aborting their children with abandon for the same time period. So the children of liberals are increasingly sparse.

In the South we are seeing many more white children. Also among Catholics, particularly traditional Catholics, 5 and 6 children, or more, are common.

As once said, when someone said they couldn't afford a large family, "its not the high cost of living, it is the cost of living high."

Anonymous Brother Thomas December 08, 2014 9:58 AM  

All by design. Refer to Jaffe memo.

Anonymous Will Best December 08, 2014 10:16 AM  

As once said, when someone said they couldn't afford a large family, "its not the high cost of living, it is the cost of living high."

Of course living high is how you advance civilization. 160-acre family farms are nice and all, but you have to have people consuming the stuff other people are inventing. If they aren't, then the inventors won't have the resources to do any inventing.

Blogger JDC December 08, 2014 10:35 AM  

Will the last person to leave the U.S. please turn off the lights? Thanks

Don't count on MI. Not only have the lights been of for a while, nobody around here remembers how they work.

Blogger JCclimber December 08, 2014 10:51 AM  

working for a large company, helping the HR department get more efficient, I see the flow of data of employees.
Believe you me, it isn't just welfare mamas having baby after baby.

Many of those black and hispanic women have full time employment (maybe not very high paying, but unionized with benefits). And boy, are they CRANKING out the chilluns and getting those company benefits.......

Blogger Sam Hall December 08, 2014 11:38 AM  

I credit the SJW teaching college girls not to have children. We aren't going to reverse the birth rate until we get rid of all the "womon" courses in college.

Anonymous Huckleberry -- est. 1977 December 08, 2014 11:59 AM  

Don't forget, also, that the white +2SD couple having their first (and probably only) child at 40 produce a kid that is a much higher risk for a host of health and developmental problems, and that the child produced is much less likely to have as high of an IQ as a child produced by the same couple a decade or two earlier in their lives.
Not only are the +2SD people procreating as much as needed, they are waiting way too long to do it and in many cases not replacing themselves with people of the same cognitive capabilities and physiological health.
So that should be fun with all the new diseases our Immigration Spigot approach imports...

Anonymous Devon December 08, 2014 12:17 PM  

This is a good thing. It means that white people ( and all people soon) are going through a voluntary eugenic movement.

All the people I know who marry young:

Are better adjusted.
Are devout
have at least three children
are successful

The only white people I know who don't have children are losers. They shouldn't have had children anyway. Quality over quantity.

Anonymous p-dawg December 08, 2014 12:30 PM  

Why, it's almost Malthusian!

Anonymous Michael Maier December 08, 2014 12:45 PM  

bc64a9f8-765e-11e3-8683-000bcdcb2996 December 08, 2014 9:40 AM "After all, swapping an -1SD IQ Guatamalan immigrant who doesn't speak English for the native child of +2 SD white parents isn't dysgenic or dyscivic at all, right?"

So, has anyone mentioned the first ten minutes of the movie "Idiocracy" yet?

CaptDMO


Funny how white the bulk of the population was in that film. Can't be TOO offensive in a move all about idiots, I guess.

Anonymous Viidad December 08, 2014 12:48 PM  

I've been doing my best to counter this trend but despite my reproductive success it's hard to make a statistical dent. I'm going to need a couple more wives. +3SD FTW

C'mon ladies.

Anonymous PA December 08, 2014 12:51 PM  

"a voluntary eugenic movement."

A healthy society needs its own social pyramid, including its own criminal class.

Anonymous Corvinus December 08, 2014 12:53 PM  

The same people who think that borders are relic also think that they are barbaric relics.

@fnn
Borders are meaningless, unless Russia or ISIS touches them, in which case they're sacrosanct.

Isn't "loathe" a French word? Just saying...

@Stg58
It's native English / Anglo-Saxon. French words in English don't have "oa" or "th".

Blogger LP 999/Eliza December 08, 2014 12:53 PM  

Now now gentlemen! Women have to worrrrrrk.

Women at work means she is making the men work all the more and all the added stress. It's like a semi precious weapon song, "she'll make you work by saying she'll work."

Worse times are ahead. I was going to start ranting about my life but I deleted it all. All I can leave the issue with is that we have another problem. The colleges, bank and all these slavery producing banking needs to burn to the ground. Also gas is too cheap on the east coast, $2.71 tells me the oil derivatives are higher and banks are getting paranoid more than a baby boomer on their precious dope.

Blogger LP 999/Eliza December 08, 2014 1:18 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Anonymous Stg58 / Animal Mother December 08, 2014 1:34 PM  

Corvinus,

Yes, I know. Just being an asshole. Vox isn't providing any satisfaction though.

Anonymous Rufus December 08, 2014 2:07 PM  

“Americans haven’t worried much about birthrates in the past, because we have the faucet of immigration to turn on and off,” said Andrew J. Cherlin

That's because they've always had a good number of them in the past - see Catholic families (and Baptist and any religious family really).

Now only people of faith breeding are the ones calling for heads to be cut off.

Anonymous RJ December 08, 2014 2:29 PM  

There is good news here for some folks. If you are fairly intelligent and have faith and a decent work ethic, you will stand out in comparison to the hordes of lettuce pickers, nose pickers, slouching millennials with toothpick arms, and hooded looter thugs.

It doesn't matter, as the labor laws are making it unprofitable to hire intelligent people who have a decent work ethic. Especially if they are white, male, and over 40.

See WOTC.

Who can I Hire?

Veterans
TANF Recipients
SNAP (Food Stamp) Recipients
Designated Community Residents (living in Empowerment Zones or Rural Renewal Counties)
Vocational Rehabilitation Referral
Ex-felons
Supplemental Security Income Recipients
Summer Youth Employee (living in Empowerment Zones)

Click here for more information about the WOTC target groups.

Anonymous n5 December 08, 2014 6:22 PM  

This 50 year old wants to go back and slap his 25 year old self for having only three because kids "are expensive."

Blogger Notorious P.A.T. December 08, 2014 10:26 PM  

"Because immigration" what? Where's the rest of that sentence?

Anonymous Corvinus December 08, 2014 11:36 PM  

It reminds me of Russia before a certain group started leaving.

Much does.


If that's what it takes...

If our economy tanks to Russia levels, get ready for a Ukraine-like crackup.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus December 09, 2014 3:53 AM  

Devon: "The only white people I know who don't have children are losers. They shouldn't have had children anyway. Quality over quantity."

The ready consent of the wealthiest whites to the destruction of their ethnic kin shows that they are not the best, only the richest.

Blogger Whiskey December 09, 2014 6:36 PM  

Japan, South Korea, Coastal China, Russia, Iran, Algeria, Eastern Europe, all have the same problem. High fertility is a function of girls having kids around age 14 or so, and having them through their 30s and even 40s. Low fertility is a function of women having one kid at age 32 or so.

All else is obfuscation in horror of biological reality.

Patriarchal societies (real ones like Yemen's --TFR 8 or something) offer nothing but childbirth in the early teens for girls. Wealthier societies even places like Iran and Algeria (Muslim both, and not exactly wealthy by Western standards much less Japanese standards) allow women choice. Even with Islam. So women defer childbirth and have mostly one kid in their thirties.

It seems a society that has "enough" (floor likely Iran's per capita income which is not huge either btw) resources/wealth per family allows women choice and thus low fertility. Low fertility is thus a function of wealth that enables women to defer childbirth until relatively late.

A wealthy society will be low birth rate. A poor one high birth rate. And mixing the two is likely to work out poorly. With huge resource fights between the low birthrate people wanting to keep their own money and the high birthrate ones trying to seize it.

Anonymous WildBill1240 December 09, 2014 9:13 PM  

I would like to contribute to increasing the birthrate, but I fall under the 10-15% category of couples who cannot conceive for medical reasons. In a fallen world of genetic entropy, infertility will continue to rise both against and because of human will.

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