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Sunday, January 25, 2015

Grexit looms

Election results in Greece don't bode well for the Eurocrats:
Catastrophe' warning as anti-austerity party looks set to win Greek election with up to 38 per cent of the vote. Exit poll shows 36 to 38 per cent for anti-austerity party Syriza. Ruling New Democracy party predicted to receive 26 to 28 per cent. Syriza set to win 148 to 154 seats - and it needs 151 to rule outright. In third place is ultra right-wing party Golden Dawn on up to 7 per cent.
Not a bad result for Golden Dawn considering that their leadership is in jail on what look like suspiciously trumped up charges.

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45 Comments:

Anonymous Orville January 25, 2015 2:19 PM  

Wonder if they'll take Putin up on his offer of a free trade zone. That would sweeten the pot for others to leave the Eurozone.

Anonymous FUBAR Nation Ben January 25, 2015 2:29 PM  

About time the Eurocrats lose. What will be interesting is if they try to initiate a coup like they did in Italy.

Anonymous Stg58 / Animal Mother January 25, 2015 2:32 PM  

Syriza and Golden Dawn in an alliance to rule together?

Blogger Laguna Beach Fogey January 25, 2015 2:35 PM  

These elections are just foreplay.

Anonymous Aleksandr Dugin January 25, 2015 2:35 PM  

Weimer republic 2

Anonymous Trimegistus January 25, 2015 2:40 PM  

I don't get it. Lefties take over in Greece, use the threat of leaving to blackmail Germany into paying for more of Greece's bloated social programs and bureaucracy, and we're supposed to cheer about it?

OpenID simplytimothy January 25, 2015 2:44 PM  

and we're supposed to cheer about it?

If it ends the EU, sure.

Blogger Salt January 25, 2015 2:48 PM  

The anti-austerity Trough. If they build it people will come slurping. Problem is, the trough costs lots and lots of money. Perhaps the drums will start banging soon and the Germans will get up and march.

Anonymous VD January 25, 2015 2:51 PM  

Lefties take over in Greece, use the threat of leaving to blackmail Germany into paying for more of Greece's bloated social programs and bureaucracy, and we're supposed to cheer about it?

Yep. The EU is the much bigger threat.

Blogger Mindstorm January 25, 2015 3:03 PM  

If it happens, why the general reaction wouldn't be akin to "Good riddance"? What are the costs and benefits of Greece leaving the EU? For Greece and for the EU, respectively.

OpenID simplytimothy January 25, 2015 3:27 PM  

Wonder if they'll take Putin up on his offer of a free trade zone. That would sweeten the pot for others to leave the Eurozone.

It will also give us wonderful Russian/Greek hybrid names along the lines of 'Rostislav Papadiamantopoulos'

Anonymous The other skeptic January 25, 2015 3:30 PM  

Regardless of who wins I think Greece is in for a lot of pain.

Anonymous The other skeptic January 25, 2015 3:38 PM  

Wonder if they'll take Putin up on his offer of a free trade zone.

A free trade zone does not solve the problem that the Greeks have been living beyond their means (and that Democracy is a con game used by politicians to milk the productive people while buying the votes of free loaders.)

Blogger Joshua Sinistar January 25, 2015 3:47 PM  

This is the end of the Ewwww right here. Word going around is that the Leftist/Communist Party is going to form a coalition with the other parties to freeze out Golden Dawn who actually has the most support, if not votes. The plan seems to be a page fro the phony opposition here in the USA with Orange Boy selling his voters down the river, by having the Leftist/Communists make a deal to keep paying the unpayable debt. I imagine they'll try to sell off Greek properties to foreign squids and hope the Greeks will buy it.
Expect huge anger when Greeks realize all the major parties are on the Squid payroll and working together and Golden Dawn is the only real Greek opposition. They're too stupid to let them have a fair election, so this will probably lead to Civil War. The Ewwww is done. Wait til other Europeans start to realize all those fake political parties are nothing but hired actors playing for the Same Squids at Octopus Inc!

Anonymous Democrazy January 25, 2015 3:56 PM  

Yay! We did it! We found a way to vote for free shit!!!

Anonymous takin' a look January 25, 2015 3:58 PM  

-Joshua Sinistar

I can't see it yet, but there's a squid trick in here somewhere. They've been winning since Babylon, no reason to believe they don't have plans B,C,D,E etc.

Anonymous paradox January 25, 2015 4:01 PM  

Enjoyed Dugin's "The Fourth Political Theory" Would like to buy "Eurasian Mission" but will wait for the Kindle version.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus January 25, 2015 4:06 PM  

For the EU to work properly, voters have to take politics seriously; they can't vote for free money parties. But when you ban serious politics about real issues, you encourage trivial politics.

The situation is a bit like that in the late Soviet Union. To make the system work, the leadership needed people to expose abuses and support reforms. But not the abuses and reforms the people really cared about!

To finesse this is a delicate task. The Soviet leadership ultimately failed. The EU is failing too.

I think the ridiculous character of European leadership at this time is no accident. It is not just a matter of individual personalities. The Potemkin march leadership of the elites, in a "unity rally" that excluded the National Front and both actual parties to the conflict (Muslims and working class real French) is the sort of thing that happens when elites put on displays of being "serious" about things that can only ever be distractions from the problems they refuse to address.

Blogger Shimshon January 25, 2015 4:14 PM  

The presumptive (?) finance minister at least talks a very sensible game. Who know how long it will last?

How far behind will Spain and Italy (and others) be?

I doubt the US (or the EU) could pull off a successful coup like in Ukraine, but just because something is insane doesn't mean the FedGov won't give it that old college try.

Anonymous Noah B. January 25, 2015 4:15 PM  

Tomorrow morning's meetings at Deutsche Bank should be interesting.

Anonymous Noah B. January 25, 2015 4:23 PM  

No worries, though. I'm sure those US soldiers wearing Ukrainian uniforms in Mariupol will somehow have a stabilizing effect on Europe and offset any economic disruption caused by Grexit.

Anonymous Difster January 25, 2015 4:25 PM  

EUR/USD is rapidly heading toward parity or is it parody?

Race to the bottom anyone?

Blogger luagha January 25, 2015 4:36 PM  

If Greece leaves the EU, then there's a lot of chaos 1. as to what they will pay their debts with if at all and who is going to collapse due to their inability to keep a flow going and 2. a lot more chaos as Greece-EU notes with the Greece EU banking symbol on them will get denied and the general rush for German-EU notes on them and the general assumption of failure of all EU notes.. That's a simplified version and I've read many other possibilities and assumptions.

Anonymous Mavwreck January 25, 2015 4:36 PM  

I wouldn't be horribly surprised if this is less earth-shattering (or Euro-shattering) than expected. I read an interesting article that indicates Syriza's leadership has watered down their demands over the last few years - they've gone from demanding the debt/austerity deals be repudiated to requesting the payback schedule be renegotiated. The writer suggests that it had to happen in order to satisfy Syriza's desire to stay in the Eurozone.

The article's interesting - I'm not certain it's right, but it's worth reading:
http://www.versobooks.com/blogs/1824-frederic-lordon-syriza-faces-a-choice-between-capitulation-and-open-sedition

Personally, I think this is just a sign of the tendency of power to corrupt. Those in power (or close to it) usually don't want to rock the boat.

Blogger icr January 25, 2015 4:41 PM  

Of course Syriza is fake (i.e., part of the existing system). I'll be very shocked if they lead Greece out of the EU.

Anonymous Roundtine January 25, 2015 4:54 PM  

It doesn't matter what anyone wants, the situation will deteriorate. If Greece gets a deal and stays, then the anti-euro and anti-EU forces will rise in Germany, France, UK, Finland, etc. If Greece stays, it will also benefit Spain's leftists who will win in December's election and demand a similar deal. If Greece is told to go, it will cause an instant run out of Italian bonds.

Anonymous PA January 25, 2015 5:25 PM  

Meanwhile in Germany:

http://news.yahoo.com/thousands-join-anti-islam-rally-germany-worries-image-193024634.html

OpenID simplytimothy January 25, 2015 5:41 PM  

@PA

good

OpenID simplytimothy January 25, 2015 5:52 PM  

OT: For you 4-GW guys, John Robb uses the concept of systempunkt that I think you will find useful addition to your vocabulary.

In the present discussion, Greece (could) represent a systempunkt--a point of failure with cascade effects that far outweigh the local damage.

Anonymous Steve January 25, 2015 5:54 PM  

Syriza is not an anti-austerity party, and Tsipras is not going to tear up the memorandum or do anything about the muslim criminals invading Greece. Syriza is similar to the democrat party in America in that Syriza is a coalition of Marxists,Trotskyites,Maoists, anarchocommunists, and other fringe leftwing extremist wackos.

If they form a coalition with the mainstream right, their supposed enemies, Greece will see the staged, WWF-like atmosphere of this political theater. If they don't form a coalition,it will default to Golden Dawn to form a government. Golden Dawn is the only party that is truly against austerity and immigration. They're the only Greek party with an actual plan back to financial independence for Greek people by bringing production back to Greece and nationalizing Greece's natural resources.

Anonymous Trimegistus January 25, 2015 7:29 PM  

Steve: Nationalize natural resources? That worked so well in Venezuela and Russia. And exactly what natural resources does Greece HAVE, anyway? They've got some tiny oilfields (and almost no production), played-out silver mines and bauxite.

Golden Dawn's as self-deluded as the leftists. They all think there's a secret pot of money hidden somewhere and if they can just find it the river of free shit from the government will continue to flow. Only difference is they have sense enough to want that river to flow to Greeks rather than immigrants. But since the river doesn't fucking exist, it hardly matters.

Anonymous Frank Brady January 25, 2015 7:40 PM  

The entire world-wide complex of welfare/warfare states is imploding as is the insane "monetary system" of linked fiat currencies that sustained it.

Anonymous Anubis January 25, 2015 7:41 PM  

." They all think there's a secret pot of money hidden somewhere"

Golden Dawn knows better as one of the things they have done is kicked 3rd world illegals out of hospitals that had no room for Greek Citizens. Cut off the EU mandated care of illegals and you stop bleeding money, that's the same as discovering a secret pot of money. They also give out charity to Greeks only, unlike US charities that throw money at Lasquatmonster. Zero Hedge posted that a single mom of 4 on welfare eats up over $1million in peoples taxes over the course of a decade, which is more than the average taxpayer contributes.

Anonymous Stilicho January 25, 2015 9:22 PM  

Nothing a few million third world immigrants won't cure!

Anonymous Stilicho January 25, 2015 9:28 PM  

Brussels simply cannot allow Greece to leave the EU. The entire EU is built upon the premise that its members surrender all rights of self-determination upon entry into its permanent irrevocable union. Now they just need a Lincoln...

Anonymous The other skeptic January 25, 2015 9:40 PM  

OT: Red Queen looks like a good read and at 99 cents on Kindle is almost impossible not to purchase.

In fact he should be on Castalia House.

Blogger njartist January 25, 2015 10:19 PM  

OT: the mosquito drone is here; and it will not be extracting DNA. It will be inserting things.

Anonymous Steve January 25, 2015 10:23 PM  

" And exactly what natural resources does Greece HAVE, anyway? "

They have recently discovered a large reservoir of natural gas in Greece. They also have water. But the most important resource that Greece has, is Greeks themselves.Just like any other nation. the nation is only as good as the people which make up its citizenry.Greeks are a fine,brave,and strong people. I have a lot of admiration for them.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus January 25, 2015 10:31 PM  

Stilicho: "Nothing a few million third world immigrants won't cure!"

Yes, that seems to be the universal cure (for white countries): suitable to different parts of the world, different cultures and work habits, different histories and economic circumstances, but the same cure is always officially commendable. Strange.

Anyway, there is no short-term pot of gold for the Greeks, but in the long term there is one: Greeks themselves. If they keep their lands (and waterways) for themselves, in the long run they'll generate a typically Greek economy which won't keep pace with what Germans or Englishmen can do, but which will keep Greek babies fed and everybody happy enough.

As for the role of government -- as far as I know, the record of governments bringing about stable economic success by doing things is poor. Inactivity is safer and often works better. As long as the land remains the exclusive possession of a productive nation and as long as nobody disturbs the folkways of the people, things will work out.

Certainly in the ancient world I can't recall any instance of a nation experiencing a serious, long-term economic decline because of do-nothing legislatures.

Anonymous Anubis January 25, 2015 11:04 PM  

" And exactly what natural resources does Greece HAVE, anyway? "

Along with the new petrol discoveries if Greece went back to having their own currency they would be a tourist destination for Europeans, after a currency correction a middle class European family could afford to be treated like royalty. Leaving the EU means that they can kick out the 1/10 of the population which is illegal aliens. The Greeks could easily kick out the illegals as seen in the video One Golden Dawn vs. 30 Leftists. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfUolJ3MVpI

Blogger Jew613 January 26, 2015 2:35 AM  

Democratic government continues until it ceases to be convenient to the elite of each country. The persecution of Golden Dawn will continue and intensify so long as they represent a genuine alternative to the ruling class. I expect an eventual outright banning of Golden Dawn if other means are ineffective.

Blogger Joshua Sinistar January 26, 2015 3:01 AM  

The EU is done. This old squid trick of unpayable debt which they try to use to steal everything and their irrational hatred of Whites based on envy kills them every time. But they just keep doing it. Is it really a plan, or an instinct?

Anonymous 11B January 26, 2015 11:49 AM  

Leaving the EU means that they can kick out the 1/10 of the population which is illegal aliens. The Greeks could easily kick out the illegals...

I doubt it. They appear to have only one party against illegals, and that party's leadership is in jail. Yet there is no popular revolt among the people to free them. It appears Greeks are content with the newcomers.

Blogger TheCitadel January 26, 2015 6:44 PM  

The fact is Syriza is controlled opposition, and Independent Greeks have proven themselves the same. Once people realize the mandate is not going to be thrown out, Golden Dawn will be seen as the only legitimate opposition party.

Blogger RandalThorn January 27, 2015 12:24 PM  

[I doubt it. They appear to have only one party against illegals, and that party's leadership is in jail. Yet there is no popular revolt among the people to free them. It appears Greeks are content with the newcomers.]

I would like to see your statistic on the last part 11B, because the statistics and anecdotal evidence I see suggest otherwise.

The only difference is that my co-country men still are OK legal immigration but not OK with illegal immigration.

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