ALL BLOG POSTS AND COMMENTS COPYRIGHT (C) 2003-2016 VOX DAY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED.

Sunday, March 08, 2015

Mailvox: the math is the evidence

Diogenes appears to have trouble with it:
The only thing missing from your post is any evidence supporting your assertion. Every stat I've seen has Firefox's slide beginning at least two years before the Eich affair. Nor do the stats show any acceleration in decline at the time Eich was forced out.

What is your evidence -- aside from wishful thinking -- for laying the whole thing at the doorstep of SJWs rather than, say, the rise of Chrome? Note I dropped Firefox over the Eich affair myself. However, I don't see any evidence that the boycott has had any impact whatsoever.
No evidence? The evidence was literally placed right in front of his nose. No acceleration in decline? The evidence was literally placed right in front of his nose. The fact that the slide began two years - or actually, as the article says, four years - before the Eich affair is not the salient point, it is the annual rate at which users have been abandoning Firefox that tells the story. Let's look at what the quoted article said:

In the last 12 months, Firefox's user share -- an estimate of the portion of all those who reach the Internet via a desktop browser -- has plummeted by 34%. Since Firefox crested at 25.1% in April 2010, Firefox has lost 13.5 percentage points, or 54% of its peak share.

Firefox's user share was at 25.1 percent. It is now at 11.6 percent five years later. Those lost 13.5 percentage points are distributed as follows:

2010 to 2014 =  7.52 points (13.9 percent of total decline per year)
2014 to 2015 =  5.98 points (44.3 percent of total decline per year)

Now, the fact that the increase in the decline of Firefox increased by a factor of three was coterminous with the boycott does not prove beyond any shadow of a doubt that the boycott was entirely responsible. But it is most certainly evidence that the boycott was at least partially responsible, especially in light of the fact that Mozilla employees clearly believe it has had a negative affect on their user numbers, hence their public pleas to Christians to overlook l'affaire d'Eich one of which was linked to in yesterday's post.

In fact, based on the reported rate of decline, the evidence suggests that the Eich affair is having twice as negative an effect as Chrome, bloat, and every other negative factor combined. This was all immediately apparent in the post year yesterday; frankly, I find it a little shocking that it is necessary to spell it out to such a degree for people to be able to follow it. The same story also happens to be indicated in my own statistics, as Pale Moon alone now accounts for 4 percent of the current traffic here on VP, up from zero one year ago.

For those who need me to type even slower, the 5.98 points lost in 2014 is calculated by dividing 11.6 by 0.66. This provides 17.6 as the Firefox user share prior to the decline of the last 12 months. I hope that explaining the simple subtraction involved will not prove necessary.

And before anyone stupidly goes running to find a competing statistic, please note that the claim was that there was no evidence to be seen, despite the fact that said evidence was right there in the quoted article.

Labels: ,

41 Comments:

Anonymous Jon March 08, 2015 6:49 AM  

"Pale Moon alone now accounts for 3 percent of the traffic here on VP."
I'm kind of surprised that it is that low, actually. So what are the numbers for all browser traffic?

Blogger Rantor March 08, 2015 7:00 AM  

Math is hard. -Barbie

Blogger Vox March 08, 2015 7:02 AM  

"Pale Moon alone now accounts for 3 percent of the traffic here on VP."

Four percent, actually. I suspect some of the Pale Moon users didn't know how, or didn't bother, to change the way it reports as Firefox. Although it may not do so any longer, I don't actually know.

Blogger napari March 08, 2015 7:59 AM  

My current browser is driving me crazy.
IE will just stop working or shut down due to an error on the website page is the typical message I get. Zerohedge, The Blaze.com are two of the websites I get this on but not here on Vox Day blog.
I'd like to change my browser to Pale Moon but I hesitate due to my email accounts, online banking, some business I do etc...
If I change over to Pale Moon does it affect any of these things I currently have?
If anyone chimed in with a suggestion or helpful hint I sincerely thank you.

Anonymous Cary March 08, 2015 8:43 AM  

I switched from Firefox to Pale Moon because of the Eich affair, and I am sure that I'm not the only one. I'm a devout Christian and it's clear that the SJWs want to outlaw certain beliefs. Keep in mind that Eich's "sin" was to donate to a political campaign to defend traditional marriage. They have the freedom to push out a co-founder, but we have the freedom to dump their product and encourage others to do so too. There are more of us than them, and we will win if we actually fight back.

BTW, thanks for the Pale Moon recommendation. I have been very happy with it. It seems to load much faster and crash less than Firefox was prior to switching.

Blogger James Sullivan March 08, 2015 8:51 AM  

I typically use Safari or Dolphin. Does anyone know where the makers of Dolphin stand, in relation to the SJWs? I love Dolphin and would hate to stop using it. But I would.

Blogger Joel C. Salomon March 08, 2015 9:38 AM  

If Eich’s ouster was significant, I would have expected that to be a stronger effect soon after April of last year, but that the decline would revert to its previous rate a few months later—almost a year after the fact, just about everyone inclined to abandon Mozilla for that reason would already have done so.

Are the usage statistics available on a month-by-month basis to check this?

Blogger Vox March 08, 2015 9:48 AM  

If Eich’s ouster was significant, I would have expected that to be a stronger effect soon after April of last year, but that the decline would revert to its previous rate a few months later—almost a year after the fact, just about everyone inclined to abandon Mozilla for that reason would already have done so.

Wrong. People don't act immediately on things. There are still people abandoning Firefox now for the first time due to the Eich affair because they did not know they had an alternative. It's ridiculous for people to claim it isn't a major factor. There are hundreds of people here who have done so. Mozilla's own people have publicly begged us to come back.

The fact that the SJWs at Mozilla still haven't come to terms with the consequences of their idiot actions guarantees that they will be gone sooner rather than later. And good riddance.

Blogger Foster March 08, 2015 9:51 AM  

Chrome was released in December of 2008, more than a year before the peak of Firefox in April 2010. Did they make any major upgrades this year that would account for the twofold increase in the average decline of Firefox's user share between 2010-2014 and 2014-2015?

Anonymous REG March 08, 2015 10:09 AM  

I think everyone is missing the most important point. It's not market share that's important to anyone but investors. Firefox was losing because it was decreasing (and still is) its effectiveness as a service provider. It just ain't working like it should. Eich as one of the ground floor people had the potential of bringing Firefox back on track and improving efficiency and restoring its reputation. When political correctness came in, it lost the closest tie to restoring its ability to become an efficient tool. Like Apple started downhill, Steve Jobs came back and put it on its feet again, Firefox lost that chance.

Anonymous Common Core Administrator March 08, 2015 10:34 AM  

Group your answers by friendly numbers. Explain why the tens pod exceeds the overall collection of number sets. Place all round numbers in a subset and all non linear functions ina control group for further grouping. Take a nap.

Yours Truly,

Common Core Administrator

Blogger James Dixon March 08, 2015 11:04 AM  

> Are the usage statistics available on a month-by-month basis to check this?

Wikipedia lists four stats sources, all of which can be checked independently and adjusted for the period you want:

http://gs.statcounter.com/#desktop-browser-ww-monthly-201412-201412-bar
http://www.w3counter.com/globalstats.php?year=2014&month=12
http://stats.wikimedia.org/archive/squid_reports/2014-12/SquidReportClients.htm
http://www.netmarketshare.com/browser-market-share.aspx?qprid=1&qpcustomb=0#

Anonymous Scintan March 08, 2015 11:24 AM  

"Pale Moon alone now accounts for 3 percent of the traffic here on VP."
I'm kind of surprised that it is that low, actually. So what are the numbers for all browser traffic?


I, for one, never bothered to change the way it reports. When Moonchild decides that's important enough to do, he'll take care of it. I can tell you that, in my home office alone, FF is used on 7 fewer computers than it was prior to the Eich situation.

Anonymous trev006 March 08, 2015 11:28 AM  

Personally, I don't even conduct my online banking with the same browser I use for my regular Internet surfing. But looking for jobs meant that I had a lot of open tabs on LinkedIn as I applied for one opportunity after another. It took a wholesale hard drive crash to make me think about the programs I wanted: when I realized my tabs and old bookmarks were gone, I found that I wasn't giving Firefox a second thought. I'm on Pale Moon regularly now- it actually runs as efficiently as Firefox used to run. I couldn't be happier.

Blogger Corvinus March 08, 2015 11:54 AM  

Firefox's user share was at 25.1 percent. It is now at 11.6 percent five years later. Those lost 13.5 percentage points are distributed as follows:

2010 to 2014 = 7.52 points (13.9 percent of total decline per year)
2014 to 2015 = 5.98 points (44.3 percent of total decline per year)


I suppose those who grumble that the Eich affair didn't matter are fooled psychologically by the arithmetic decline. The market share should be shown as a logarithmic scale, not an arithmetic one.

Anonymous Daniel March 08, 2015 12:12 PM  

PM > FF.

Also I pointed out the Eich effect at FF to a class of undergrad budding data analysts whenever the January figures came out. Even had a little arrow pointing to the Eich affair and the clear acceleration, just by looking at the bend on the chart (non-empirical) that followed. Did it go from 17 to 12 the day after April 10 (or whenever he resigned)? No of course not. But a room full of disinterested people otherwise ignorant of the news took about 7 seconds to figure out the obvious.

The only thing that clouds the cause and effect slightly is the fact that you can either speculate that FF tech had become bloated prior to Eich, and thus prepped the environment for a SJW sabotage, or that SJWs gained power in the ranks and siphoned off the tech, but you can't possibly fail to note the obvious evidence for an SJW-related disaster.

Anonymous educated, progressive, enlightened, loving March 08, 2015 12:32 PM  

I WILL SHAME YOU INTO USING FIREFOX

ALL YOUR BROWSER BELONG US, BECAUSE HOMOPHOBIA

Blogger Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus March 08, 2015 1:08 PM  

Face facts, Diogenes. People don't like sodomites, and people don't like sodomites hassling others for not agreeing with sodomite cultural demands.

Get over it.

Anonymous Chandler's Ghost March 08, 2015 1:27 PM  

People don't act immediately on things. There are still people abandoning Firefox now for the first time due to the Eich affair because they did not know they had an alternative.

This. It might take people a while to do something, but once it's done it's done. I didn't dump Firefox until a few weeks after this stupidity, but I wouldn't reinstall it even if they brought Brendan Eich back. It's not really a boycott. I just no longer use Firefox, just as I no longer read most gaming websites.

All it takes is enough individuals deciding that something is no longer worth their time.

Anonymous Jack Amok March 08, 2015 1:41 PM  

Now, the fact that the increase in the decline of Firefox increased by a factor of three was coterminous with the boycott does not prove beyond any shadow of a doubt that the boycott was entirely responsible.

Well, perhaps if they hadn't outsted Eich, the decline would have been even worse. In fact, I'd say the continued decline is proof that they didn't do enough. They should have fired even more straight, white males.

-sincerely,
The Ghost of J.M.Keynes

Blogger Jack Aubrey March 08, 2015 1:51 PM  

Diomedes, not Diogenes. Poles apart.

Anonymous BigGaySteve March 08, 2015 1:53 PM  

It was wrong to fire Eich for a position that Bath House Barry expressed to black clergy the week prior to the 2012 election, which was not reported in the gay news. If a teleprompter had him giving that same speech to a gay pride event he would be hung by a lamppost by a rainbow feather boa. Gay divorce will only make lawyers richer. I have heard enough alimony/divorce horror stories to know marriage(as it stands now) is as bad a thing for the overwhelming majority of my people as firewater is for Vox's. Without marriage gays have to have grown up financial discussions similar to pre nups. Going past live and let live invites the pendulum to swing the other way.

"If Eich’s ouster was significant, I would have expected that to be a stronger effect soon after April of last year"

For info that the left doesn't want to get out, it can take a long time for people to find out about it, especially people with jobs. Did you ever hear of the Christopher Newsom and Channon Christian murder/rapes/tortures? You no doubt heard of Matt Shepard but did you know that 2 weeks after the guy who beat up an Asian liquor store clerk in Ferguson was killed by a white cop, that a black moslem serial killer of gays in 3 states named Mohammad Ali Brown was caught? If the races where reversed you would have heard the serial killers name for months.The same week the Ferguson liquor store robber was killed a white 20yo Dylan Taylor who was wearing headphones was shot dead in the back by a black cop for not responding to him, but that doesn't fit the narrative. One of the reasons I am conservative is because the left thinks SPADES TRUMP QUEENS, when a black moslem torches a packed gay bar in Seattle even leftist gays try to obfuscate it .

Anonymous Numerus March 08, 2015 2:03 PM  

There are hundreds of people here who have done so.

Even 999 wouldn't be material.

Anonymous BigGaySteve March 08, 2015 2:13 PM  

" They should have fired even more straight, white males. "

Please tell me you don't believe the hype that there is any significant number of skilled tech workers outside of Asian/white men? You have been watching too much NCIS, even the military admits there are no black seals as seen on the show and are willing to drop the standards. http://stuffblackpeopledontlike.blogspot.com/2011/05/inevitable-seals-team-6-movie.html. Don't these leftists realize that any black smart enough for special forces could get a 6 figure do nothing affirmative action token goverment job.

"Even 999 wouldn't be material"
That's 111 times the number of blacks in American Mensa. I think Diogenes was the cashier that was confused when I bought something that rang up at $11.25 and I gave a twenty dollar bill, a one dollar bill and a quarter to.

Blogger Corvinus March 08, 2015 2:17 PM  

Well, perhaps if they hadn't outsted Eich, the decline would have been even worse. In fact, I'd say the continued decline is proof that they didn't do enough. They should have fired even more straight, white males.

-sincerely,
The Ghost of J.M.Keynes


Cosigned, the Second Vatican Council.

Blogger Corvinus March 08, 2015 2:21 PM  

One of the reasons I am conservative is because the left thinks SPADES TRUMP QUEENS, when a black moslem torches a packed gay bar in Seattle even leftist gays try to obfuscate it .

There's also Pim Fortuyn in the Netherlands, killed by an SJW, but because he had the same opinion about multiculturalism as Geert Wilders, he's been stuffed down the memory hole.

Anonymous BigGaySteve March 08, 2015 2:49 PM  

"There's also Pim Fortuyn in the Netherlands"

I am aware of him. He deflected racism claims by saying he screwed black rent boys. If the left silences a Pim Fortuyn they shouldn't complain when men like Breivik & Vlad Tepes rise up.

Blogger macengr March 08, 2015 3:06 PM  

There was a guy I worked with that would wear a shirt once a week that declared "I support Firefox". I would just roll my eyes when I saw it, but it was the kind of workplace where saying something negative would have been, shall we say, frowned upon. He wouldn't have listened, anyway.

Blogger Vox March 08, 2015 3:13 PM  

Even 999 wouldn't be material.

This isn't the only blog on the Internet. It's not material, it is indicative.

Blogger Corvinus March 08, 2015 4:00 PM  

@macengr

I hear you. Being a wolf in a rabbit suit is a bit annoying, but if it gets you your monetary sustenance...

Anonymous Jack Amok March 08, 2015 4:56 PM  

Please tell me you don't believe the hype that there is any significant number of skilled tech workers outside of Asian/white men? You have been watching too much NCIS

You missed the joke.



Anonymous beerme March 08, 2015 5:53 PM  

One thing that accelerated Firefox's decline in market share is the switch from version 24 ESR to version 31 ESR in October 2104. This hurt their corporate userbase due to the switch to the buggier Australis browser. However, Moonchild also changed the default web identification when version 25 of Pale Moon came out in October so it should be difficult to determine the source of the drastic drops after October 2014 in these metrics are due to corporate users switching browsers or Pale Moon adopters changing the compatibility mode to false after the version 25 upgrade. The only thing I'm sure of is that this graph shows a drastic drop in market share from before Eich's ouster to the end of the year. Another complicating factor is the timing of Eich's removal and Australis rolling out in May. No matter which way you interpret the data, it is clear that Firefox is on life support.

Anonymous Titus Didius Tacitus March 08, 2015 7:10 PM  

That Desktop Top Browser Share Trend graph is brutal. Around May 2014, something went wrong.

When you change your brand image, the effect doesn't happen all at once. From then on, whenever something happens to create a new decision point whether to sign on, stay, or go, your new image will work for you or against you as people make that decision.

For something like shampoo, that's pretty straightforward: there's a new decision every time people run out, though aggressive competition can create an additional decision point. If branding really messes up, the damage can be abrupt; you won't have to guess whether something went wrong, the month after you started your new ad campaign where girls that use your shampoo compete sexually with their moms.

With something like a browser, where you can just leave it, the decision points are more irregular. Do I like this new version, or should I jump ship? Do I trust this new browser that's been recommended to me, or should I stick with the devil I know? Every time, your new brand image will work for you or against you.

That graph looks like the worst case scenario: a redefined brand that undermines customer loyalty, followed by serious decision points in the same year.

If FireFox doesn't achieve some kind of drastic branding "undo" (which is a lot harder than changing the faces on a shampoo bottle), every new decision point from now on will be an occasion for more users who are no longer loyal to head for the exits.

Anonymous Rolf March 08, 2015 7:51 PM  

Let me see here - a tech company that has a tech product they hope people will use near-continuously, and they put political correctness and an artificial calendar-driven release schedule ahead of technical competence and code functionality / stability.

What could possibly go wrong?

It blows my mind how may people/organizations put secondary or even tertiary considerations ahead of primary goal considerations.

Anonymous Jack Amok March 08, 2015 10:05 PM  

It blows my mind how may people/organizations put secondary or even tertiary considerations ahead of primary goal considerations.

That's what happens when organizations are taken over by people who weren't part of making the hard decisions that built the org in the first place. They take the primary goals for granted - they always just happened before. Of course, that was when some unhip old square was in charge, always making patriarcal-like decisions that were unfair to women, minorities and lazy idiots. I'm sure there was no connection there...

But yeah, they think the success part is easy, because they didn't have to actually do the work for that.

Blogger Russell March 09, 2015 12:26 AM  

It took me a couple of weeks to figure out how to replace the functionality in Firefox. Once I did that, I scrubbed it from all my computers, OSes, tablets, and VMs, then did the same for my wife's and kids'.

At this point, there is no way I'd go back. Eich was the deciding factor, goodthink trumped actual usability and innovation.

Screw 'em.

Anonymous TimP March 09, 2015 1:06 AM  

If Eich’s ouster was significant, I would have expected that to be a stronger effect soon after April of last year, but that the decline would revert to its previous rate a few months later—almost a year after the fact, just about everyone inclined to abandon Mozilla for that reason would already have done so.

Are the usage statistics available on a month-by-month basis to check this?


Interestingly enough that is exactly what we see in this graph: http://www.w3counter.com/trends

It appears that the overall downward trend of the last couple of years may of even started to reverse in late-2013 and early-2014, though it's too short of a period to tell for sure, and then there's a sudden, aggressive drop from April to July of 2014, with a some stabilisation, and a bit of slower growth from August to November, and then another, slightly more gradual, drop back down to their current all time low. Which suggests that the switch from 24 ESR to 31 ESR in October suggested by beerme is likely part of the issue as well, but certainly not the whole issue.

Anonymous Anonymous March 09, 2015 8:33 AM  

I know one person is an anecdote, but I uninstalled Firefox on two machines the week after the threw Eich under the bus.

Anonymous Sauce for the Goose March 09, 2015 8:50 AM  

So it's not a gentle decline, it's a hockey stick turned down. And we all know hockey sticks are SETTLED SCIENCE. Guess that makes Diogenes a DENIER in need of SJW medicine: Disqualify! Shun!

Blogger Joel C. Salomon March 09, 2015 8:53 AM  

Interestingly enough that is exactly what we see in this graph: http://www.w3counter.com/trends

Yup, that’s the backlash for Eich’s ouster all right. Good.

Blogger Panzerdude March 09, 2015 11:02 AM  

Tell someone that 10 declining to 5 is a 50% decrease, and 5 declining to 2 is a 60% decrease. You'll often hear, "That doesn't make any sense. 5 going down to 2 is WAY less than 10 going down to 5!"

Here is the formula: Public Education x 12 years = 4

Now do you understand?

Post a Comment

Rules of the blog
Please do not comment as "Anonymous". Comments by "Anonymous" will be spammed.

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts