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Wednesday, April 15, 2015

Ukraine has consequences

I'm sure the Israelis are just delighted with this particular blowback from the neocon invasion of Ukraine:
Vladimir Putin blew a geopolitical raspberry at the Obama Administration on Monday by authorizing the sale of Russia’s S-300 missile system to Iran. The Kremlin is offering the mullahs an air-defense capability so sophisticated that it would render Iran’s nuclear installations far more difficult and costly to attack should Tehran seek to build a bomb.

· Feeling better about that Iranian nuclear deal now?

· The origins of this Russian sideswipe go back to 2007, when Moscow and Tehran signed an $800 million contract for delivery of five S-300 squadrons. But in 2010 then-President Dmitry Medvedev stopped the sale under pressure from the U.S. and Israel. The United Nations Security Council the same year passed an arms-embargo resolution barring the sale of major conventional systems to the Tehran regime.

· That resolution is still in effect, but the Kremlin no longer feels like abiding by it. With the latest negotiating deadline passed and without any nuclear agreement in place, Moscow will dispatch the S-300s “promptly” to the Islamic Republic, according to the Russian Defense Ministry.

· So much for the White House hope that the West could cordon off Russia’s aggression against Ukraine while working with Mr. Putin on other matters. Russia and the West could disagree about Crimea and eastern Ukraine, the thinking went, but Washington could still solicit the Kremlin’s cooperation on the Iranian nuclear crisis.
Jerry Pournelle points out that it's not that big a deal from a practical perspective, since any denuclearization attacks would likely have to be launched before the air-defense systems could reasonably be installed anyhow. And while he's probably right, Putin's action is yet one more reminder of how any US foreign policy that is not based first and foremost on the US national interest is bound to have unforeseen negative consequences, even for those who wish to manipulate it for their own ends.

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109 Comments:

Blogger JartStar April 15, 2015 12:09 PM  

I'd be surprised if the next president from either party preemptively attacks Iran in 2017 or beyond. Are any of the current GOP front runners Rand, Cruz, or Rubio that hawkish?

Hillary is obviously a neo-lib, but the Clintons are political pragmatists and won't do it unless there's real political gain from an attack.

Blogger Josh April 15, 2015 12:12 PM  

Are any of the current GOP front runners Rand, Cruz, or Rubio that hawkish?

Rubio definitely is.

Cruz probably is.

Rand definitely isn't.

Blogger Alexander April 15, 2015 12:13 PM  

Top. Men.

Iran is not our problem, Russia is not our problem. Bit hell, if we are going to go out of our way to make them our problem, let's at least do it right.

Blogger JP April 15, 2015 12:22 PM  

Putin really doesn't like Obummer.

Anonymous Meh April 15, 2015 12:31 PM  

Putin would have transferred those SAMs at some point even if we hadn't meddled in Ukraine.

Anonymous Pew Mockwell April 15, 2015 12:32 PM  

Obama is a neocon now?

When did he turn Jewish? Or Republican? Is Obama writing for the Weekly Standard now?

Anonymous Salt April 15, 2015 12:35 PM  

Putin blowing a raspberry at Obama. Conjures quite the image.

Anonymous Stilicho April 15, 2015 12:35 PM  

Rubio definitely is.

Cruz probably is.

Rand definitely isn't.


I'd put Cruz in the "maybe" rather than "probably" in part because he's smart enough to realize that he cannot order the tide to retreat. I'd expect a return to sanctions from him for window dressing at least, even if it doesn't change the mad mullahs plans and capabilities much.

He forgot to ask about the "most famous reindeer of all"... Jebbie the neocon reindeer, had a very hawkish pose, and if you ever saw it, you would even say it blows...

Blogger Josh April 15, 2015 12:35 PM  

Obama is a neocon now?

When did he turn Jewish? Or Republican? Is Obama writing for the Weekly Standard now?


Is a Victoria Nuland a neocon?

Blogger Josh April 15, 2015 12:37 PM  

I'd put Cruz in the "maybe" rather than "probably" in part because he's smart enough to realize that he cannot order the tide to retreat.

Given his Zionist stunt at the gathering of middle eastern Christians, I'm skeptical.

Anonymous Curtis April 15, 2015 12:47 PM  

Apparently, Egypt is now telling Israel to trust in Allah, er G-d, and bomb Iran.

Putin would have transferred those SAMs at some point even if we hadn't meddled in Ukraine.

You can assume much. But placing NATO missiles around Russia's borders, in case Iran goes nasty (wink-wink), is reason enough.

Anonymous Curtis April 15, 2015 12:53 PM  

Putin's reaction to missiles on Russian border to deter Iran: https://youtu.be/ZjmiyOgO66g

Anonymous anon123 April 15, 2015 1:01 PM  

My next door neighbour, a senior police dective, is off to Ukraine for a year to teach Ukrainian police how to be good Western style cops. Alas he has the West's childish view of foreign affairs. He is in for a surprise.

Blogger bob k. mando April 15, 2015 1:14 PM  

Crimea is game to you?

Blogger Chris Mallory April 15, 2015 1:15 PM  

"Given his Zionist stunt at the gathering of middle eastern Christians, I'm skeptical."

Agreed. Cruz is a bought and paid for NeoCon. He just happens to know how to scam some Christians into thinking he is one of them. When the rubber meets the road he will put Israel before the US every time.

Blogger Josh April 15, 2015 1:16 PM  

He just happens to know how to scam some Christians into thinking he is one of them.

He is one of them. Evangelical Christians are Zionists.

Blogger Matamoros April 15, 2015 1:17 PM  

Everyone should read Thomas Theiner's articles on Putin and the coming Russian war against Europe. https://twitter.com/noclador

The first article in the series is "Gotland, the Danzig of Our Times."

http://euromaidanpress.com/2015/03/22/gotland-the-danzig-of-our-time/

These articles will better help cut though the propaganda war and see Putin's moves for what they are.

Blogger darkdoc April 15, 2015 1:19 PM  

"since any denuclearization attacks would likely have to be launched before the air-defense systems could reasonably be installed anyhow"

How long does it take to install air defense around posible nuke sites?

If Russian techs operate the sites, at least initially, isn't about 2 weeks enough?

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 15, 2015 1:22 PM  

I'll believe it when I see it. When SA-300's are definitely in place within Iranian territory, and under some degree of Iranian control, then I'll believe it. Talk is cheap, and the Russians have been known to promise more than is delivered before.

If and when those SA-300's are emplaced, it will be interesting to see if any of them are well forward along the border with Iraq, where they could nullify air power for some distance into Iraq. Or emplaced near the coastline, where they could nullify air power over parts of the Persian Gulf such as the waterway down south near Yemen.

These are not toy rockets. They have some range. The Gulf states and the Saudi's are no doubt taking notes.

Anonymous Dan in Tx April 15, 2015 1:22 PM  

When I read this story and people's indignant response to it on Yahoo yesterday, I was simply amazed. The U.S. slaps sanctions all over Iran, slaps sanctions all over Russia and then is ass hurt when the Russians and Iranians simply make a deal among themselves. I mean hell fire, I don't claim to be the smartest person in the room by any stretch but how can anyone really be surprised at this?

Blogger Chris Mallory April 15, 2015 1:25 PM  

"Evangelical Christians are Zionists."

Not all of us.

Blogger Josh April 15, 2015 1:27 PM  

Not all of us.

True. But they're the most Zionist gentile demographic in the electorate.

Anonymous Roundtine April 15, 2015 1:27 PM  

This has consequences if you care about playing global policeman. If you care about increasing U.S. exports, then Saudi Arabia have we got a deal for you!

Anonymous Jonathan April 15, 2015 1:32 PM  

I am really starting to wonder about just how committed to Israel American Jews are. Possibly they see Iranian nukes as a done deal. I suppose there's always hubris

Anonymous LES April 15, 2015 1:34 PM  

Is Obama a neocon?

Anonymous beerme April 15, 2015 1:35 PM  

@Dan in Tx MPAI
I personally am shocked that a petrostate with an arms manufacturing capability starts selling arms during an economic war. That they can sell to the enemies of those waging the economic war only makes the weeping and gnashing of teeth that much more amusing.

Blogger grendel April 15, 2015 1:35 PM  

Wouldn't it make more sense to quit farting around in arabia, let Russia and Europe fight over it, and pursue a goal of US hegemony over the oil on the American continents? Hell, our troops could drive down to Venezuala to slap around the strongman-in-charge, they wouldn't even have to get on a plane.

Blogger Josh April 15, 2015 1:37 PM  

Hell, our troops could drive down to Venezuala to slap around the strongman-in-charge, they wouldn't even have to get on a plane.

Yeah but Venezuela isn't anywhere near Jerusalem.

Anonymous zen0 April 15, 2015 1:37 PM  

A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 15, 2015 1:22 PM

I'll believe it when I see it.


Debka claims it will be a long while before any are available as they are needed for the Ukraine situation.

Point is , Russia has signaled previous agreements are now negotiable.

Anonymous Plato and Aristotle April 15, 2015 1:39 PM  

Without a Foreign Devil, there is no justification for US hegemony over the world. As long as their is a Manichaean God of Light, there must be an opposing God of Darkness.

There will always be at least one Empire on Earth. There is no "equality of nations", never has been, never will be. It is a liberal pipe dream. There are hierarchies. Always have been, always will be.

If there is only one Empire, then by the natural order of things it must expand to encompass the Earth. If there are two Empires, they must expand until they abut each other.

Blogger Russell April 15, 2015 1:42 PM  

Does this strike anyone else as the Kremlin testing Obama's backbone? Again? Just to show how much of a paper tiger Obama really is?

Blogger grendel April 15, 2015 1:44 PM  

The thing I hate most about our foreign policy is all the posturing and faux-butthurt about something like this. I'd respect our politicians so much more if they just said "We acknowledge your right to sell weapons to the Iranians, however we don't like it and will respond by dumping sulfur hexaflouride onto your cities until your women sound like men and you become a laughingstock."

Blogger LysanderSpooner April 15, 2015 2:07 PM  

We need a new HITLER so we can Bomb, Bomb, Bomb ......and watch the Kardashians.

Blogger Derrick Bonsell April 15, 2015 2:07 PM  

That's simply childish posturing for a start.

Blogger Emmanuel Mateo-Morales April 15, 2015 2:09 PM  

Hey, does anyone here know how expensive and how easy it would be to dethrone the mexican political class and annex Mexico as a US territory and make that country into the envy of Latin America? I mean, with the way things are going, it's either Mexico that's going to control the US or the other way around, and I don't know about you, but I'd rather speak English daily than Spanish despite my name.

Plus, I'm writing a story on the subject and could use some opinions.

Blogger Josh April 15, 2015 2:17 PM  

Hey, does anyone here know how expensive and how easy it would be to dethrone the mexican political class and annex Mexico as a US territory and make that country into the envy of Latin America?

Why would we want to do that?

Blogger Nate April 15, 2015 2:19 PM  

its not that I don't enjoy seeing Putin toy with the idiots in the administration... but honestly at some point I wish we could get the adults back in charge. Even if they are philosophically mistaken... at least they will be able to execute their poorly formed plans with some degree of professionalism.

Blogger Chris Mallory April 15, 2015 2:23 PM  

A deal for defensive weapons between Russia and Iran is no business of the US government or the American taxpayer. It is well past time to mind our own business.

Blogger Josh April 15, 2015 2:26 PM  

its not that I don't enjoy seeing Putin toy with the idiots in the administration... but honestly at some point I wish we could get the adults back in charge. Even if they are philosophically mistaken... at least they will be able to execute their poorly formed plans with some degree of professionalism.

When was the last time the adults were in charge? Bush I?

Blogger bob k. mando April 15, 2015 2:34 PM  

Iran is Russia's ally. has been since Carter's hostage crisis.

Obama told Medvedev to relay to Putin that he would have more freedom of action after the election.

Obama has signed ( attempting to sign? ) a treaty lifing Iranian sanctions immediately and allowing them nukes in ~13 years.

WHY IS ANYONE SURPRISED BY THIS?

Blogger Josh April 15, 2015 2:40 PM  

Hey, does anyone here know how expensive and how easy it would be to dethrone the mexican political class and annex Mexico as a US territory and make that country into the envy of Latin America?

Mexico has a GDP/capita roughly 75% of the GDP/capita of Puerto Rico, and a population that's 30x bigger. So take whatever we spend on Puerto Rico and multiply it by 32.50. And that doesn't include the costs of either buying off their political class or invading them.

If you want to invade and occupy, multiplying the costs of the Iraq war by 3 or 4 would be my guess.

Anonymous Frank Brady April 15, 2015 2:42 PM  

"So much for the White House hope that the West could cordon off Russia’s aggression against Ukraine while working with Mr. Putin on other matters."

Anyone who can intentionally write about "Russia's aggression against Ukraine" is too stupid to walk outside unaccompanied.

Blogger Josh April 15, 2015 2:44 PM  

Anyone who can intentionally write about "Russia's aggression against Ukraine" is too stupid to walk outside unaccompanied.

Anyone who calls Jerry Pournelleb too stupid to walk outside unaccompanied is too stupid to have unmonitored access to the internet.

Anonymous Stilicho April 15, 2015 2:49 PM  

Why would we want to do that?

To further Jeb Bush's ambition to be Presidente del Los Estados Unidos de Norte America?

Alternately, to loot them right back in order to pay the costs of their invasion of the U.S. I could support that war for oil...provided we actually took the oil this time.

Blogger bob k. mando April 15, 2015 2:51 PM  

yeah, Jerry's got some bad premises ( Freudian psych better than Descriptive Psych for one ), but he ain't no ways stupid.

Blogger BigFire April 15, 2015 2:56 PM  

Wouldn't get too exciting about it. Iran is one of THE worst customer of any kind of military hardware in the world. Sure you'll make big splash on getting a big deal signed. Getting paid is a whole 'nother matter altogether. It's been that way since the Shah was deposed and they're certainly not going to change now.

Blogger john black April 15, 2015 2:59 PM  

"its not that I don't enjoy seeing Putin toy with the idiots in the administration... but honestly at some point I wish we could get the adults back in charge. Even if they are philosophically mistaken... at least they will be able to execute their poorly formed plans with some degree of professionalism."

These last few administrations have been truly embarrassing. Probably the last time we had adults in charge was Bush Sr.

Anonymous Roundtine April 15, 2015 3:02 PM  

Does this strike anyone else as the Kremlin testing Obama's backbone? Again? Just to show how much of a paper tiger Obama really is?

I think this is about putting pieces on the board. Obama is weak so Russia can lay down lots of pieces. Then when the next president (assuming they have credibility and leadership ability) tells Russia to remove a piece, they will agree, but also ask for the U.S. to give them something in return. Right now Russia wants to grab as much as they can while the dodo is still in office.

Anonymous zen0 April 15, 2015 3:04 PM  

> These last few administrations have been truly embarrassing. Probably the last time we had adults in charge was Bush Sr.

I'm going with Harry S. Truman

Blogger pyrrhus April 15, 2015 3:07 PM  

Sanctions always backfire....but in any event, with Pakistan spitting out nukes like mustard seeds, I fail to see the point of an attack on Iran...which will never happen anyway.

Blogger grendel April 15, 2015 3:07 PM  

My understanding is that Mexico is rich in resources but poor per capita because it is torn by drug wars and haphazardly ruled by corrupt thugs. I think if the U.S. took it over we should adopt a Singapore style drug policy of shooting violators on the spot. We should turn the FBI and the NSA loose on their government and police until the corruption is mostly resolved. These actions would result in an insurgency led by the cartels, but it wouldn't be unwinnable like Iraq because the majority of the population shares a religion and a desire to live peacably. But all a know about Mexico comes from the news and Fred Reed, so I could be way off.

Blogger Josh April 15, 2015 3:15 PM  

I think if the U.S. took it over we should adopt a Singapore style drug policy of shooting violators on the spot.

Shooting violators in the US or in Mexico?

We should turn the FBI and the NSA loose on their government and police until the corruption is mostly resolved.


Those are the same agencies that did such a great job with fast and furious.

These actions would result in an insurgency led by the cartels, but it wouldn't be unwinnable like Iraq because the majority of the population shares a religion and a desire to live peacably.


Because this time it's different?

Also, what if we had millions of Iraqis living here during that insurgency?

You don't think we would have had car bombs going off in downtown Houston?

Anonymous Curtis April 15, 2015 3:18 PM  

These last few administrations have been truly embarrassing. Probably the last time we had adults in charge was Bush Sr.

https://youtu.be/Rc7i0wCFf8g

Yeah. You like it when they spit in you eye.

Blogger David April 15, 2015 3:22 PM  

Have you visited the Yucatan Peninsula (away from Cancun)? Makes the Everglades look chilly. They can have it.

Blogger JohnR219 April 15, 2015 3:22 PM  

Grendel: Are you a neocon too?

We should stop fucking around in the ME and start fucking around in SA.

What exactly is the difference?

We have been trying to get hegemony over CE and SA and they hate the US govt for it...How about the US make them allies and build their economies instead of trying to control them...

Anonymous Stilicho April 15, 2015 3:31 PM  

.How about the US make them allies and build their economies

They have the economies they want... and deserve. Let's stop with the nation building instead.

Anonymous ENthePeasant April 15, 2015 3:37 PM  

I would point out that the Iranians have not had much luck with high tech systems. It will have to be manned and maintained by Russians. The other point here is that Russia "NEVER" sells front line equipment to anyone. They always sell what they call "the monkey model" to other countries, which is far less sophisticated and usually works with very old technology. Not to mention the Israeli attack will be done with drones that will take out all of Iran's more sophisticated AA systems before an attack begins at very minimal cost. In some ways this will hurt Iran a lot more than it helps. It will take a lot of resources that are more effectively spent in other areas. But never doubt the power mad hard-on that the Mullahs experience based on the trappings of power.

Blogger Anthony April 15, 2015 3:40 PM  

I suspect that sometime down the road, Russia will regret giving Iran good air defenses. Maybe not during HRC's presidency, but sometime.

Anonymous Alexander April 15, 2015 3:40 PM  

Tom Kratman's approach to the drug war (if you must have one):

1. TFA continues to confiscate massive amount of drugs
2. Hoard drugs
3. Poison drugs
4. Release on market
5. War over in six months when demand drops to nil, absolutely not a problem for a good generation or three.

Blogger john black April 15, 2015 3:44 PM  

"I'm going with Harry S. Truman"

He definitely wasn't a rabbit, thats for sure.

Anonymous BigGaySteve April 15, 2015 3:49 PM  

"Mexico has a GDP/capita roughly 75% of the GDP/capita of Puerto Rico, and a population that's 30x bigger. So take whatever we spend on Puerto Rico and multiply it by 32.50. And that doesn't include the costs of either buying off their political class or invading them."

Not only that but there are Puerto Ricans in the mostly ebonics version of Spanish speaking land of Puerto Rico that are getting social security disability for not being able to speak English. Annexing Mexico would exponentially explode welfare and the voters for more free stuff.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/federal-eye/wp/2015/04/10/puerto-ricans-who-cant-speak-english-qualify-as-disabled-for-social-security/

Blogger Nate April 15, 2015 3:56 PM  

" I think if the U.S. took it over we should adopt a Singapore style drug policy of shooting violators on the spot."

You short sided moron.

Implementing such a policy... would result in a blood bath of a civil war the likes of which God Himself has never seen.

Blogger Emmanuel Mateo-Morales April 15, 2015 4:01 PM  

Question: why WOULD the invasion and occupation of Mexico cost more than the Iraq War? It's not like we'd be trying to support a massive expeditionary force many thousands of miles away from home and with dubious allies. We share a border with Mexico almost the size of the great wall and a lot of our people in the military, not just mexicans, speak spanish and can quickly be made to learn to speak spanish because of its similarities to english and because it uses the latin alphabet.

Why would it cost 3 to 4 times as much as the Iraq invasion and occupation when a large chunk of those costs when into transporation logistics that would be phenomenally less than when we went hopping to the middleeast?

Blogger Emmanuel Mateo-Morales April 15, 2015 4:03 PM  

Okay, how about we just take all of Mexico's resources and build bases to defend those resources from aggression?

Blogger Matamoros April 15, 2015 4:03 PM  

Read this somewhere.

Russia, the largest country in the world, has the same sized economy as Spain, and the standard of living of Mexico.

So think of Russia as Mexico with nukes, and a first class spy apparatus.

Anonymous Stilicho April 15, 2015 4:04 PM  

Annexing Mexico would exponentially explode welfare and the voters for more free stuff.

Good point. Do we really want custody of the ones too lazy to cross the Rio Grande for their EBT cards or to add more oligarchs to our already overwhelming supply?

Blogger Russell April 15, 2015 4:07 PM  

@grendel

"But all a know about Mexico comes from the news and Fred Reed, so I could be way off."

Bravo, you've trolled well :)

Blogger Emmanuel Mateo-Morales April 15, 2015 4:08 PM  

@Stilicho

As though with the way things are headed, that isn't ALREADY how things are going to turn out with the amount of illegal immigrants they send out there?

At least with an invasion of Mexico, we can loot some of their money and, the worst thing that happens is that we pull out and leave them in an even poorer state than they were to the put where multiple nations emerge that are too busy fighting amongst each other to worry about the US.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 15, 2015 4:08 PM  

@grendel
At the conclusion of the war between Mexico and the US in the 1840's, the option of full annexation of Mexico was considered and rejected by the leaders of the time. The US Army and Marines had defeated every Mexican Army unit put up against them. The US Navy and Marines controlled the ports on the east coast of Mexico. US Army and militia formations controlled large swaths of the northern part of the country.
The US Army and Marines had captured and were occupying every city from Veracruz to Mexico City, the capitol of the country. Yet the decision was not annexation of the whole country, rather annexation of some of the northern parts that were sparsely settled.

What did they know that you don't know?

Anonymous patrick kelly April 15, 2015 4:09 PM  

@Alexander

That's burning the village to keep it sober.......and mostly dead......the US gov't did poison booze during prohibition, so I don't doubt their willingness to do so......however the result was strengthened calls for repeal......

plus, like Nate alludes to above, you have a considerably more well armed populace, legal or not, in Merka'.......I don't do illegal drugs, but if someone I cared about died because of such draconian measures, I would seriously consider going to war at whatever level I could muster up against those responsible......or at least support the rough men with bigger ballz than mine who do.....

Anonymous Curtis April 15, 2015 4:12 PM  

Yeah, America. A dwelling place of demons, a prison for every foul spirit, and a cage for every unclean and hated bird. And we are going to spread this democracy around in the name of everything holy in America.

Look at us. Dog crap piled up to our nose on our front porch, and we're going to teach them to be just like us, or else. Everyone has wood in their eye, while we try to pluck it out looking through the beam in our own. Why, if everyone was like us, the world would be a better place! Honestly, we just want everyone on par with our foul spirits and all in the world will be okay.

The principalities, powers, rulers of the darkness of this age, spiritual hosts of wickedness in the heavenly places, are laughing. Chief among the powers, rulers, spiritual hosts, is the United States. It's not that we (TPTB) want to make them twice the sons of hell, but that we (TPTB) want to be the Chief of the sons of hell. Just like they do over you.

We're an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you're studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we'll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that's how things will sort out. We're history's actors…and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.

And that's the spell. That is the beam they shove in your eye that you may see better.

Democracy! USA! USA! USA!

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 15, 2015 4:13 PM  

Okay, how about we just take all of Mexico's resources and build bases to defend those resources from aggression?

Yeah, that worked so well when the French tried it in the 1860's. Please look up the word "guerrilla", it doesn't mean what most people think. Just ask Napoleon's brother.

I feel as if I've somehow stumbled over a case of empty Bud cans and found myself in a dorm room bull session at 1:00 AM.

Blogger Emmanuel Mateo-Morales April 15, 2015 4:13 PM  

@Curtis

Implying that the purpose of the US invasion if Mexico would be to spread Democracy?

Blogger Emmanuel Mateo-Morales April 15, 2015 4:16 PM  

"Yeah, that worked so well when the French tried it in the 1860's. Please look up the word "guerrilla", it doesn't mean what most people think. Just ask Napoleon's brother."

Implying that we're the French and this is the 1860's and that Mexico isn't in a massive drug war where the criminals actually have the power and ability to take out Mexican army personnel and where said army personnel aren't likely to be working with the criminals anyway?

Anonymous Stilicho April 15, 2015 4:21 PM  

Look, since we're collectively horrible to our Africans according to the left and, also according to the left, Mexican culture is superior to ours, I propose we relocate our entire African population south of the Rio Grande so that they can avoid further mistreatment by the white man and finally get the treatment they, by leftist logic, so richly deserve. And get it good and hard.

Blogger Nate April 15, 2015 4:22 PM  

"Russia, the largest country in the world, has the same sized economy as Spain, and the standard of living of Mexico. "

I'd take mexico's standard of living. Fuck at least they can buy cold medicine that fucking works.

Anonymous cheddarman April 15, 2015 4:22 PM  

Yeah,

Why don't we shed our last vestiges of liberty and build a global empire for the benefit of the 0.01%? Sounds like a plan to me! Where can I sign up?

Anonymous Curtis April 15, 2015 4:23 PM  

Emmanuel Mateo-Morales - @Curtis

Implying that the purpose of the US invasion if Mexico would be to spread Democracy?


Surely you jest.

Blogger Emmanuel Mateo-Morales April 15, 2015 4:26 PM  

"Yeah,

Why don't we shed our last vestiges of liberty and build a global empire for the benefit of the 0.01%? Sounds like a plan to me! Where can I sign up?"

Again, implying that, with how Mexico's acting, that isn't the way it's already going. At least with defacto US control of Mexico we can at least dictate some terms rather than having terms dictated to us by President Jorge Chulupa Biblioteca Cabron whose marching orders are in step with or come from La Cuidad de Mexico.

Blogger Emmanuel Mateo-Morales April 15, 2015 4:27 PM  

@Curtis

No. The purpose to invade Mexico would be to keep Mexicans in Mexico and take all their money like they did us and to show them what happens when you try that shit against a Nuclear Power.

Blogger Marissa April 15, 2015 4:29 PM  

Take all the money for an invasion and use it to build a wall and deport. You'd need just as much morale.

I was at the IRS office today in SW Houston. I was perhaps 1 of 3 white people there. I'd rather see less of Mexico, not more of it.

Blogger hank.jim April 15, 2015 4:35 PM  

What's to stop us from putting Patriot missiles in Poland?

Anyways, Iran is closer to Russia than the US. Just saying.

Anonymous Curtis April 15, 2015 4:41 PM  

What's to stop us from putting Patriot missiles in Poland?

Sigh.

Anonymous redsash April 15, 2015 4:47 PM  

Nate: Singapore's drug policy works. So does Netherlands. Choose which ever path you wish. The blood bath wouldn't be as large as you might think, see Singapore.

Blogger Marissa April 15, 2015 4:51 PM  

Singapore would work better in Mexico, not the U.S.

Blogger grendel April 15, 2015 4:57 PM  

I don't favor U.S. imperialism, the war on drugs, or any of that. I don't think the U.S. should take over Mexico. Having read "On War," I know that Lind's answer to Mexico would be to try to de-escalate the violence and chaos while linking together centers of order.

My suggestion of a Singapore style drug policy was to be applied only in Mexico, based on my assumption that the cartels are relatively small, and the vast majority of the population would be happy to have them cleaned out. Here in the real world, I don't trust cops with the power to execute at all. I was approaching it more from the angle of ideas for a speculative fiction story.

I know the FBI and NSA are corrupt and not to be trusted, and there aren't enough of them to tackle a problem the magnitude of Mexican government corruption.

I don't think the U.S. should meddle in Mexico's politics at all. I'm pretty isolationist.

I also lean very libertarian, so the idea of a draconian drug policy is abhorrent to me. I'm open to the idea of legalizing all drugs in the U.S.

Sometimes I spitball ideas that I don't advocate or haven't thought all the way through, I know I need to be careful about that among a mixed crowd of friends and strangers like this is. I appreciate the robustness of this discussion.


Blogger bob k. mando April 15, 2015 5:45 PM  

Nate April 15, 2015 3:56 PM
You short sided moron.



this Nateism is best Nateism. because it appears superficially correct.

i am now thinking of grendel as wandering around on the same mountain with those lop-sided Tyrannosaurus Rexes we were talking about last year.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 15, 2015 6:11 PM  

"Yeah, that worked so well when the French tried it in the 1860's. Please look up the word "guerrilla", it doesn't mean what most people think. Just ask Napoleon's brother."

Emmanuel Mateo-Morales:
Implying that we're the French and this is the 1860's and that Mexico isn't in a massive drug war where the criminals actually have the power and ability to take out Mexican army personnel and where said army personnel aren't likely to be working with the criminals anyway?

No. Implying that you are ignorant. Also you may or may not be capable of learning anything from history.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 15, 2015 6:16 PM  

grendel
My suggestion of a Singapore style drug policy was to be applied only in Mexico, based on my assumption that the cartels are relatively small, and the vast majority of the population would be happy to have them cleaned out.

What do you base these assumptions on? Something more than Fred Reed and old movies, or not? Have you ever actually been to Mexico, or met any articulate Mexicans, or worked with Mexican nationals?

Buying a burrito at Chipotle doesn't count, either.

Man, the smell of stale socks and spilled beer in this dorm room is thick.

Blogger grendel April 15, 2015 6:17 PM  

"i am now thinking of grendel as wandering around on the same mountain with those lop-sided Tyrannosaurus Rexes we were talking about last year."

Well my left leg is slightly shorter...

Blogger Azimus April 15, 2015 6:18 PM  

Matamoros April 15, 2015 1:17 PM Everyone should read Thomas Theiner's articles on Putin and the coming Russian war against Europe. https://twitter.com/noclador

The first article in the series is "Gotland, the Danzig of Our Times."


I didn't read the incredibly detailed hypothetical account all the way to the end, but I see some failings in his thinking:

1.Gotland might be useful as an air defense Gibraltar to temporarily secure the Baltic States from NATO counterstrokes, but based on Putin's history it is FAR too much of an escalation against the West for FAR too small of a strategic objective. I get it; you want to be able to drive your Gaz from St. Petersburg to Kaliningrad and never leave Russian soil. But to risk it all for this - it doesn't fit the MO (in my opinion, of course).

2. The author assumes the US will respect impotent German denial of German airspace. This is ludicrous. Can the Germans even detect if their precious airspace was violated by aircraft with their transponders turned off? I get the feeling Germany left the air superiority thing to the US and focused on the Bundeswehr.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 15, 2015 6:22 PM  

i am now thinking of grendel as wandering around on the same mountain with those lop-sided Tyrannosaurus Rexes we were talking about last year.

"If you were a stump-legged dinosaur, my love" should be fodder for a Hugo or Nebula in 2016, definitely.

Blogger grendel April 15, 2015 6:24 PM  

Paradigm, when I said I don't know anything about Mexico I wasn't exaggerating. That's why I spelled out my assumption, so anyone who knows better could point to the error in my thinking.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 15, 2015 6:36 PM  

grendel, ok. I think that a good book to read would be Mexico, Biography of Power by Enrique Krauze. It is a history of Mexico in terms of biographies of leaders, starting with Cortez if I remember right and proceeding up to the 1980's. The bio of Benito Juarez, Porfirio Diaz are both very interesting in terms of Mexican culture. The fact that nearly all of the leaders of the Mexican revolution / civil war (1910 - 1920's) died violently should tell us something about that nation's culture.

Porfirio Diaz famously once said, "Poor Mexico, so far from God and so close to the United States". He may have been half joking, but only half.

Anonymous patrick kelly April 15, 2015 7:04 PM  

"What's to stop us from putting Patriot missiles in Poland?"

Putin might care if they worked worth a damn....his hardware is considerably better than Iraqi Scuds......

Anonymous patrick kelly April 15, 2015 7:08 PM  

re: Mexico

If we still let men like Pershing or Patton be generals and wage war Mexico could be passified....wouldn't be pretty, but could be done.....tho' not worth the effort IMAO...

Blogger grendel April 15, 2015 7:08 PM  

Thanks for the reccomendation, I stuck it in my amazon cart.

Blogger bob k. mando April 15, 2015 7:16 PM  

grendel April 15, 2015 6:17 PM
Well my left leg is slightly shorter...


how bout your arms? are they vestigial?

Anonymous WaterBoy April 15, 2015 7:20 PM  

bob k. mando: "i am now thinking of grendel as wandering around on the same mountain with those lop-sided Tyrannosaurus Rexes we were talking about last year."

The fearsome Rocky Mountain T-Rex

Anonymous Curtis April 15, 2015 7:20 PM  

We already have Patriot Missiles in Poland.

Blogger grendel April 15, 2015 8:05 PM  

Yes, my arm is vestigial. That's why Beowulf was able to rip the other one off so easily. He acted like it was such a great feat, but the thing was barely on there to start with.

Blogger JaimeInTexas April 15, 2015 8:14 PM  

What with extinct, very large, bipedal scavengers?

Blogger Matamoros April 15, 2015 8:29 PM  

1.Gotland might be useful as an air defense Gibraltar to temporarily secure the Baltic States from NATO counterstrokes, but based on Putin's history it is FAR too much of an escalation against the West for FAR too small of a strategic objective.

It would be a strategic overreach if the West responded. Given that there isn't any Swedish defense in place; it could be taken at little cost and a "what are you going to do about it" bravado, and a "we need to secure our borders."

Look at the Russian navy in a "secret" Norwegian base for about a year without anyone knowing about it. Russia sure respected Norway's borders.

However, the articles have had results already. I saw yesterday where Sweden and Finland are working on common defense, and are talking about joining NATO.

2. The author assumes the US will respect impotent German denial of German airspace. This is ludicrous.

I would think so. As you note the Luftwaffe is not that great; and America no longer has all the fighter wings, etc. in place to do much in the beginning against Russian air power. But more planes are arriving practically daily to shore up our forces in Europe.

I'm looking forward to his upcoming article on Romania.

Anonymous Mobutu April 15, 2015 9:23 PM  

"We already have Patriot Missiles in Poland."

So?

Blogger bob k. mando April 15, 2015 10:08 PM  

Matamoros April 15, 2015 8:29 PM
Look at the Russian navy in a "secret" Norwegian base for about a year without anyone knowing about it.



uh, that was an abandoned base that was so secret that Norway had leased it out ... TO A RUSSIAN COMPANY. how the fuck are you supposed to maintain opsec when you're giving the keys to joint to a foreign nation?

unless they have a clause in the lease contract that said the russian company is NOT permitted to sublet moorings in the base, they don't even have a leg to stand on to make complaints.

the very idea that 'secret' is even being appended to an abandoned, public use, contractually leased facility leads me to suspect that the Norwegian .gov had a pretty good idea what the Russian 'company' was intending to do with it ... but don't want to admit that inconvenient fact.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 15, 2015 11:22 PM  

Matamoros
It would be a strategic overreach if the West responded. Given that there isn't any Swedish defense in place; it could be taken at little cost and a "what are you going to do about it" bravado, and a "we need to secure our borders."

My Swedish friends have been grumbling about the endless drawdown of military assets for years. Not just hot stuff like Viggen fighters, AFV's, coastal patrol assets, but more mundane things like rifle ranges. Time was every town had a rifle range (and an armory not too far away) but those have been closing for years.

However, they also tell me there's a still extant cadre of riflemen who make it a point to show up for any hunter-training, just to meet and greet. They are more worried about the Moslem 5th column than the Bear, even now.

Anonymous Curtis April 16, 2015 1:55 AM  

hank.jim > What's to stop us from putting Patriot missiles in Poland?

Curtis > We already have Patriot Missiles in Poland.

Mobutu > So?

https://youtu.be/8ux3oiWELIQ

Curtis > Clear?

Blogger hank.jim April 16, 2015 10:47 AM  

Curtis: Technically, not fully deployed yet. Rapid deployment has begun only recently.

http://www.foxnews.com/us/2015/03/21/us-air-defense-troops-train-fast-deployment-patriot-missiles-in-poland/

http://www.amtvmedia.com/us-patriot-missiles-to-be-stationed-in-poland/

"The USA are going to deploy Patriot-missile systems to Poland, that will be used in a large scale NATO war game. Prior to this, Russia had announced the deployment of short-range missiles to Kaliningrad."

Notice present tense of the sentence.

Anonymous John Smallberries April 16, 2015 4:20 PM  

Mexico has historically had a revolution every ~80 years or so. The last one was in 1910, so they're about due. The reason it's been delayed is that the Mexican ruling class has very cannily exported what would be revolutionary cadre (desperate peasants) over to the U.S. where we can feed and house them, with the connivance of our esteemed elites of course, because our elites find them so much easier to control than the Anglos...even with the relentless application of bread and circuses and the deliberate dumbing down that's been going on for at least 60 years.

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