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Saturday, June 06, 2015

Approaching endgame

Is there one last kick in the can? It doesn't look like it:
Greece admitted its sovereign coffers are totally empty this week when it "bundled" its modest €345 million payment to the IMF along with others, for a lump €1.5 billion payment, which may well never happen.

And the bigger problem for Greece is that after testing yesterday the faith and resolve of its depositors (not to mention the Troika, aka the Creditors) and found lacking, said depositors no longer believe in the full faith (ignore credit) of the Greek banking system.It may have been the Greek government's final test.

Because according to banking sources cited by Intelligent News, things today went from bad to horrible for Greek banks, when Greeks "responded with massive outflows to the Greece's government decision to bundle the four tranches to IMF into one by the end of the June."

According to banking sources, the net outflows sharply increased on Friday and the available liquidity of the domestic banking system reduced at very low and dangerous levels.

    The same sources estimate the outflows on Friday around 700 million Euros from 272 million Euros on Thursday. The available emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) for the Greek banks is estimated around 800 million Euros. In addition, the outstanding amount of the total deposits of the private sector (households and corporations) has declined under 130 billion Euros or lower than the levels at early 2004.

    The total net outflows in the last 7 business days are estimated 3.4 billion Euros threatening the stability of the Greek banks.


This means 2.5% of all Greek deposits were pulled in just the past 5 days! Indicatively, this is the same as if US depositors had yanked $280 billion from US banks (where total deposits amount to about $10.7 trillion)
Greece didn't default yesterday because they said they would make the payment at the end of the month. It appears, however, that the government is merely giving the Greek people time to empty out their accounts so that they will not be bailed-in as creditors when the default takes place.

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70 Comments:

Anonymous Giuseppe June 06, 2015 9:17 AM  

Good.
The bankers should begin to have some pushback. Sturdy lampposts may be required in due course.

Blogger Achillea June 06, 2015 9:18 AM  

If I'm understanding this correctly, 'increased net outflows' is just a euphemism for 'bank run.'

Blogger VD June 06, 2015 9:21 AM  

If I'm understanding this correctly, 'increased net outflows' is just a euphemism for 'bank run.'

Or to be even more technical, creditors calling their loans.

Blogger Bard June 06, 2015 9:38 AM  

I would think that the numbers would be much higher. Who would leave any money at all in the banks unless it was tied up in an investment?

Blogger Bard June 06, 2015 9:39 AM  

You may be correct. I would expect the govt to simply pull the rug out from under them; not give them time to prepare.

Anonymous Rhys O'Reilly June 06, 2015 9:43 AM  

What do you see as the flow on consequences, internationally, if this does happen?

Blogger Bard June 06, 2015 9:46 AM  

If they ever actually assign the word "default", it will trigger the counter party derivatives and chain react from there.

Blogger Nate June 06, 2015 9:49 AM  

"What do you see as the flow on consequences, internationally, if this does happen?"

Not speaking for Vox here... but...

War.

I see war.

Blogger Bard June 06, 2015 9:57 AM  

Do they really believe that chaos can be controlled to bring their version of order? Isn't there an equal chance it will get out of control and consume them as well?

Blogger luagha June 06, 2015 9:59 AM  

War. I hear it never changes.

But Greece is still playing chicken. And suckering in other banks with temp overnight loans from overseas banking so hopefully actual Greeks can get their money out and change it into non-Greek-denominated Euros. (Or dollars/gold/toilet paper/insulin/hatpins).

Blogger Casual Brutality June 06, 2015 10:02 AM  

Why would there be war? And who would be the major players?

Blogger Nate June 06, 2015 10:20 AM  

"But Greece is still playing chicken."

by playing chicken... you mean they are doing everything they can to keep their citizens from being fleeced by germans?

Anonymous Orville June 06, 2015 10:23 AM  

This means 2.5% of all Greek deposits were pulled in just the past 5 days! Indicatively, this is the same as if US depositors had yanked $280 billion from US banks (where total deposits amount to about $10.7 trillion)

I've read that the US only has around a trillion in physical cash with the rest being electronic entries, so this comparison would be 25% of all physical cash was taken out of banks.

Blogger Nate June 06, 2015 10:24 AM  

"Why would there be war? And who would be the major players?"

Why would there be war? Because that's what europeans do. They kill each other.

There are lots of reason there will be war.

1) Giant amounts of money are at stake... and therefore the power positions of those in power right now are at stake. The powerful like to remain powerful.

2) The greek default will effectively destroy the EU experiment... and it will break up. That break up will be peaceful... because who-owes-what-to-whom is not going to be easy to hash our.

3) everyone is going to be looking to blame someone... esspecially the germans.

4) tensions are extremely high in europe right now already due to the immigrant invasion.


this is going to end in a bloody nasty war.

Blogger Nate June 06, 2015 10:25 AM  

"That break up will be peaceful"

WON'T

It WON'T be peacefull... dammit.

Blogger Bard June 06, 2015 10:27 AM  

Uncontrollable global Lehman Brother's event. Stacked trillions of promises to pay insured by other people's worthless debt. Major players will probably be everyone. Of course, there may be a new plan already in place. IMO: there was never a plan to reduce the trillions in debt, just cash in, crash it, start over with more govt control over the sheeple. Hope I am wrong, but I agree with Nate. MOAR WAR!

Blogger Bard June 06, 2015 10:31 AM  

But MASSIVE civil disruptions first.

Blogger Jack Ward June 06, 2015 10:35 AM  

It does seem the present Greek government is trying to give its people a break. About time. If so, then the Greek electorate should designate this government as Keepers.

If the EU marches into Greece then, those troops should beware the past exploits of Greek partisans [funny; it might even be the Germans again...what a hoot]

Blogger Lisa Merkel June 06, 2015 10:38 AM  

OK, I'm going to go out on a limb and say this isn't endgame. Euros will tolerate enormous levels of crap in the name of social justice/global unity. I'll bet Greece wins this round of chicken.

OpenID simplytimothy June 06, 2015 10:51 AM  

It appears, however, that the government is merely giving the Greek people time to empty out their accounts so that they will not be bailed-in as creditors when the default takes place.

That is no small thing. McCain, McConnell, McBoehner and the McFederalGovernment would do the opposite.

Anonymous zen0 June 06, 2015 10:51 AM  

@ Nate

> this is going to end in a bloody nasty war.



Wouldn't that be interesting.
The main reason for the Euro Union project was to avoid war in Europe.
If that was the outcome, I think the project could be filed under EPIC FAIL.

Blogger Aeoli Pera June 06, 2015 10:56 AM  

Another argument for expecting war: Correlation. War is just what seems to always happen whenever the money runs out. Kinda like how diversity + proximity = war, it doesn't matter why, it just matters that this is what tends to happen.

Anonymous BigGaySteve June 06, 2015 10:58 AM  

Not speaking for Vox here... but... War. I see war.

Greece has threatened to release the Kraken... I mean give EU paperwork to all illegal aliens so they can legally settle in the nicer EU states.

Blogger Sam Hall June 06, 2015 10:58 AM  

this is going to end in a bloody nasty war.

With what? I doubt any of them can muster two full divisions.

Blogger luagha June 06, 2015 11:06 AM  

What happens when they can't pay the Russians for heating oil?

Blogger Cail Corishev June 06, 2015 11:17 AM  

"this is going to end in a bloody nasty war."

With what? I doubt any of them can muster two full divisions.


How long would it take Germans to build a few?

Blogger Jourdan June 06, 2015 11:21 AM  

Greece has both the IMF and the EU by the balls.

In any negotiation, the deadline is the key.

We were told Friday was the deadline.

Surprise, surprise, it was not.

If (and we now have to say *if*) June 30 is indeed the deadline, both sides will continue to stake out positions to strengthen their hand in the settlement.

Watch: IMF will loan Greece the funds to pay the IMF.

Blogger Nate June 06, 2015 11:34 AM  

"this is going to end in a bloody nasty war.

With what? I doubt any of them can muster two full divisions."

***chuckle***

american ignorance of europeans is matched only by european ignorance of americans.

Blogger stats June 06, 2015 11:35 AM  

Why would there be war? Because that's what europeans do. They kill each other.

Europe went to war when they had a surplus of young men. Are they going to fight a war with pensioners and Turkish immigrants? I doubt it.

Blogger Nate June 06, 2015 11:43 AM  

"Europe went to war when they had a surplus of young men. Are they going to fight a war with pensioners and Turkish immigrants? I doubt it."

Europe has always warred hoss. The last 70 years have been a bizarre exception. The idea that europeans have solved their war problem is roughly as intelligent as the leftist notion that the gay marriage debate is "over".

History people. Study it.

Anonymous hightecrebel #0071 June 06, 2015 11:45 AM  

They have decent militaries. The primary issue for most of them is logistics. Very few have actually stored enough consumables for the military to operate in a contested environment. If I remember right, last public numbers I saw was 30-60 days for most EU states, and considering the Libya fiasco where a number of the "larger" militaries ran low on fuel and munitions, it might be worse for higher-level tech, but baseline guns/gas/ammo for infantry is likely still well stocked

Anonymous hightecrebel #0071 June 06, 2015 11:56 AM  

Figured I should add that it's not that unusual to have so little stored. The US stores a supposed six months of fuel, but that's not really predicated on a full mobilization of forces, and is proportionately similar to the 30-60 day supply level.

Also, somewhat off-topic, I'd love to see a logistics study that could contrast Cold War, 90's, and post-9/11 logistics theory/plans/execution.

Anonymous BGS June 06, 2015 11:57 AM  

How many people saw Serena Williams on the news and thought Bruce Jenner has never been as manly as Serena?

"Europe went to war when they had a surplus of young men."

I hope Golden Dawn cleans up Greece first of its internal enemies before fighting other nations.

Blogger Sean Carnegie June 06, 2015 11:58 AM  

I kind of have to side with "stats" here. Who is actually going to fight? Who will enlist? Head into conscription territory and the odds of civil (and uncivil) disobedience increases exponentially. How does one play into the old winner of "patriotism" and "nationalism" when there is no nation worthy of dying for? Do you think that 18-30 French men actually see France when walking down the banlieues at night? Plus how does one get to rounding up the Mohammeds when their name is called for service when cops and ambulances won't head into the 19th Aron.?

There's also some Iceland here. As in "No, we're not paying. We dare you."

OpenID mattse001 June 06, 2015 11:59 AM  

"...time to empty out their accounts..."
Awesome! Screw the banksters.

Anonymous The other robot June 06, 2015 12:09 PM  

If this crashes the banking system then certain cities are in peril.

I never liked New York or London anyway.

OpenID mattse001 June 06, 2015 12:15 PM  

I don't see Europe going to war for two reasons, neither of which involves their troop readiness:

1) The people did this to themselves; they are to blame. They elected politicians who pushed the EU boondoggle. They voted in referenda for inclusion into the EU. They didn't oppose EU actions when things started going badly. This also cannot be blamed on one country, since there are "elites" in every European country who benefitted from this. The blame is everywhere.
2) Europe is pussified. In the old days, when there were belligerent, manly men in Europe they might've gone to war over economics. But now, leftism and political correctness has sapped the will to fight from most of them. Germany now has the lowest birthrate on the planet. European countries can't even rouse themselves to kick out Muslim invaders.

Also, Greece isn't large enough to go to war over. Not economically. Europe will kick them out, and occupy themselves trying to shore up Italy, Spain, Portugal, etc.

OpenID simplytimothy June 06, 2015 12:15 PM  

I never liked New York or London anyway.

Or D.C.

Blogger Josh June 06, 2015 12:28 PM  

Ya know an advantage of colonialism was that it gave Europeans the opportunity to fight each other on battlefields far away from Europe

Anonymous The other robot June 06, 2015 12:42 PM  

Europe went to war when they had a surplus of young men. Are they going to fight a war with pensioners and Turkish immigrants? I doubt it.

I think you have focused on the wrong thing.

Europe went to war when it had a surplus of labor since it was coming out of a huge economic crash. The war solved a lot of political problems and the politicians were not going to admit that they chose the easy way out.

There are many parallels with today, it seems.

Blogger Rek. June 06, 2015 12:59 PM  

This project has never been but an epic failure. I can't even come up with one convincing win. The present state of affair is nothing but the accumulation of delusions after fairy tales from the beginning.

Blogger Aquila Aquilonis June 06, 2015 1:02 PM  

The Europeans have no armies and no children. How can they fight a war?

Blogger Casual Brutality June 06, 2015 1:23 PM  

I seriously doubt the EU states will go to war with each other.

Your young men need to feel loyalty to the state and feel a need to band together and fight. They need to feel a sense of moral right. I do not see that at all in Europe right now. At least between nations. The French do not want to fight the English. The English do not want to fight Germany.

What a lot of people do want is for the foreign invaders to go away and leave them alone. I think the most likely thing to happen is anti-immigrant pogromesque movements, facing southward and eastward. It might not take much effort to whip up young men to go about and burn foreigner houses, businesses and so on. And when the foreigners have something to take, even better.

But that will force a nasty response from the multi-cult elites, who may be surprised at the lack of enthusiasm from the young men in their armed forces at shooting others for beliefs they hold themselves.

Anonymous Donn #0114 June 06, 2015 1:32 PM  

Some Euro countries are chock full of refugees of various types. Gypsies and Africans mostly how will they use them? Pawns of course but how? Forced expulsion to other EU/non-EU nations? Send the Gypsies back east? England is pretty much Londonstan now so I don't think they could evict their 'Asians' no matter how criminal and useless but might they evict their poles and Jews? Same with France as their situation worsens will they want to rile up their already out of control Muslims or throw them the token Jewish bone and deport/ghettoize their Jews? A true break up will involve some pretty nasty stuff just look at Ukraine and it isn't even finished with the beginning stage.

Anonymous The other robot June 06, 2015 1:45 PM  

The Europeans have no armies and no children. How can they fight a war?

I think Vox is correct. They will fight a nasty civil war against the other! Minorities and sexual deviants hardest hit.

Blogger ScuzzaMan June 06, 2015 1:54 PM  

2.8 million unemployed. Maybe 10% of any use. Still equals 280K mobilizable in relatively short time. Historically unemployed and prisoners are the first drafted

Anonymous Adam1 June 06, 2015 1:56 PM  

``...said depositors no longer believe in the full faith...of the Greek banking system.`` I wonder if this is the big moment for the EU (and the world) in the real world like in Rawls` novel PATRIOTS where a German minister lets slip the dreaded `D` word (default) and the real fun begins.

Blogger Thucydides June 06, 2015 1:58 PM  

Europe will be "sliced and diced" into several competing units depending o how well they have been able to keep things together since the start of the EU project.

The PIIG's and most of the Southern European nations have lied repeatedly about their financial condition to gain the benefits of EU membership; they will be cast out since the rich European nations will not be able to afford them anymore.

The Nordic nations will retreat into their northern fastness, and stay bunched together for protection from the Russians.

Germany will take charge of MittleEuropa. Things will be nice and orderly.

The former Warsaw Pact nations of Eastern Europe will form a unit centred on Poland. They hate the Russians, but won't be looking with much favour on the German part of Europe. Investments from there will have too many strings attached.

The UK will revert to its traditional role of "Balance of Power" politics to prevent any one power from dominating Europe, although they may tend to side with the new Vikings in Nordic Europe and the Polish block in Eastern Europe more as a way of keeping Germany in check.

Inside Europe, there will be a lot of violence as the various ungrateful immigrant communities are forced out. While there may well be nationalist and racist motivations for making the Roma, "guest workers" and others leave, it will be driven by economics: no one can afford a welfare state anymore, so freeloaders are out.

Russia gets one more kick at the can as a "Great Power" before they simply run out of manpower: their demographic crash could start in the mid 2020's and they could (high estimate) lose half their population by 2035 or so.

As the Chinese say: we will live in "interesting" times.

Blogger kurt9 June 06, 2015 2:24 PM  

My understanding is that the Greeks have until June 19th to make the entire June payment. Of course they will be unable to do such. Giving a few days for waffling around, the real drop dead date is probably June 22nd or 23rd. This is when the banks and stock markets will roil again.

I agree with Vox that the next two weeks will allow for Greek account holders to get their money out of the banks and that the Greek government is doing everything they can to facilitate this.

Blogger Salt June 06, 2015 2:43 PM  

George Soros could pay the Greek debt, indenture the people, and declare himself King. Then he could rattle his new sabres at Ukraine.

Blogger Nate June 06, 2015 3:23 PM  

People... saying Greece is to small to fight a war over is like a yankee saying that South Carolina is to small to fight a war over in 1859.


As for the idea that there are no young men to fight the war... that's just so flatly stupid it doesn't even rise to the level of the CIA Factbook.

Germany has 15 million men available for military service.

italy has 11 million men fit for military service.

France has 12 million men fit for military service

Spain has 9 million men fit for military service

Greece has 2 million.


So do tell me again about how these nations can't get together for a war.

I'm all ears.

Blogger Cail Corishev June 06, 2015 3:37 PM  

It must be a hangover from WWII, this idea that wars require big nationalist impulses or large surpluses of young men, and that it requires conflict between legitimate states.

My own (admittedly thin) reading of history says that war is pretty much the normal state of man, and all that's required to bring it about is for the conditions that temporarily forestall it to go away.

Anonymous cheddarman June 06, 2015 4:13 PM  

Speaking of Yankees, Nate, how do you see Europe getting out from under the Yankee yoke?

Anonymous The other robot June 06, 2015 4:35 PM  

In the intro to "It is time enough, Ivan. Go Home!" in There Will Be War, Vol III, Jerry Pournelle says:

Tet we continue to sell grain and butter to the Soviet Union, and the Europeans continue to build their pipelines. Worse, this is not done for cash. but for credit, so that Poland, West Germany Czechoslovakia and the Soviet Union itself pile up ever mounting debt to the West--and Western bankers agitate for further extensions of credit lest a Communist load default upset the international monetary market.

It seems like time that the bankers were upset and hanging from street lamps.

Blogger Plump Pleasant Plumber June 06, 2015 4:40 PM  

The average German soldier today is the product of a feminised, perverted society. I believe that such conditions produce low testosterone levels in their soldiers. Essentially, they're worthless. Everyone is thinking of the Wehrmacht. Not nearly the same. Consider German performance in Afghanistan. Pitiful. So, tell me, who is going to fight?

Blogger Robert What? June 06, 2015 5:02 PM  

@Vox, if it is as you speculate, that the Greek government is trying to help the Greeks preserve their little all before the default, kudos to them. Contrast that with the US government who would hand over Americans to the banksters on a silver platter.

Blogger rcocean June 06, 2015 6:07 PM  

I hope so. Its time some one stood up the banksters aside from Iceland. If the Greeks have any pride left they'll default, leave the Euro and never look back.

Blogger rcocean June 06, 2015 6:08 PM  

"Contrast that with the US government who would hand over Americans to the banksters on a silver platter."

The UK and Irish governments are just as bad.

Blogger Aquila Aquilonis June 06, 2015 7:06 PM  

"fit for military service" Hahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahhaah

Blogger dc.sunsets June 06, 2015 9:33 PM  

It appears, however, that the government is merely giving the Greek people time to empty out their accounts so that they will not be bailed-in as creditors when the default takes place.

Why do I get the impression that the US government's apparatchiks would do the opposite, and move Heaven and Earth to prevent Americans from dodging Bail-ins?

Anonymous dantealiegri June 06, 2015 9:53 PM  

@dc.sunsets

The USG would choose the bankers over the volk as long as they felt it was better for them, but no longer.

They would put any group face down in the trench if it suited them.

Anonymous clk June 06, 2015 10:57 PM  

Obvious question is what would be effect of war in europe on USA.... do we care if Greece defaults ? What is US exposure ? I remember something by george will that Greece gdp is somewhere less than gdp of dallas fort worth ... Greece is certainly not too big to fail...

Anonymous The other robot June 06, 2015 11:08 PM  

I think they are afraid of the Financial Domino Theory/

Anonymous BigGaySteve June 06, 2015 11:09 PM  

I think Vox is correct. They will fight a nasty civil war against the other! Minorities and sexual deviants hardest hit.

I agree that's why we fled die verse city for a Whitopia.

Speaking of Yankees, Nate, how do you see Europe getting out from under the Yankee yoke?

One Golden Dawn vs. 30 antifa. Golden Dawn wins https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lfUolJ3MVpI

Anonymous TimP June 07, 2015 2:56 AM  

A lot of people are saying that the Europeans don't have militaries; this is simply wrong. Several of the historically major players have decreased the sizes and funding for their militaries, but just Germany, Greece, and their immediate European (I'm excluding Turkey even though it's a neighbour of Greece) neighbours have between them enough men to field over twenty combat divisions, and probably more like thirty. I say "enough men", because a lot of them don't divide their armies into combat divisions. Add in their reserves and militias (several European states follow similar compulsory militia membership to the Swiss), which is probably another 35-60 divisions, and you're looking at quite a lot of men under arms, and this excludes every European country that isn't a direct neighbour of Greece or Germany.

Breakdown:

Totals: ~25-30 active combat divisions, ~35-60 reserve/conscript combat divisions

Germans: 2 direct combat divisions, 1 SOF division, ~1 division worth of bits & pieces, probably ~1 division worth of reserves.

Greeks: 4 direct combat divisions, 1 SOF division, ~2 divisions worth of bits & pieces, ~2 times that many reserves/trained conscripts

Macedonia: ~0.5x active men of Germans; minor reserves
Albania: ~0.25x active men of Germans; similar conscript/reserves to Greeks
Bulgaria: ~0.5x active men of Germans; similar (possibly larger) conscript/reserves to Greeks

Greece's neighbours: 6-7 combat divisions, 15-25 reserve/conscript combat divisions

French: ~2x active men of Germans; similar reserves to Germany
Austria: ~0.5x active men of Germans; larger reserves, similar conscript/reserves to Greeks
Czechs: ~0.3x active men of Germans; possible some conscript/reserves
Poles: ~2x active men of Germans; many, many reserves
Danes: ~0.15x active men of Germans; minor reserves
Netherlands: ~0.3x active men of Germans; similar reserves to Germany
Belgian: ~0.25x active men of Germans; minor reserves
Swiss: Well, we all know what the Swiss have, but for reference: ~2x active men
of Germans; many, many conscript/reserves

Germany's neighbours: ~15 combat divisions, ~20-35 reserve/conscript combat divisions

Anonymous TimP June 07, 2015 3:01 AM  

By the way; using the same estimation method the US Army consists of about 8-9 active combat divisions, and roughly 9-10 reserve divisions.

Anonymous Discard June 07, 2015 3:20 AM  

Speculating here. It seems to me that if the Europeans as a rule are feminized and unable to fight like men, there is still a number of them who are not. After all, the U.S. has both SJWs and Blackwater mercenaries. It stands to reason that these men will rule and the pussies will serve. Isn't that how the world has always operated?
Before the mass armies of the Napoleonic Wars, 10,000 men WAS an army. Could not these smaller armies described by TimP do what is needed? Expel the auslanders, hang the traitors, and bitchslap unruly neighbors when called for?

Blogger Casual Brutality June 07, 2015 8:33 AM  

There's a lot of feminization of men, but not that much. Testosterone being what it is, without the chaining of men's loyalties to the state, it'll get chained to something else. And ideologies seem to be a big draw. Golden Dawn types vs Anarchists. Muslims vs everyone else. That kind of thing.

There will be more civil-type wars and proxy actions with drones and sabotage and lone-wolf attacks. Society can have the ability to wage war severely disrupted without an actual "war" declared. Like being punched in the face while you're sleeping, or your house burned down around you.

Anonymous AbuDhabi June 07, 2015 8:36 AM  

According to globalfirepower.com, Germany has ~325k troops (active and reserve), plus ~790k reaching military age annually. Whereas Greece has ~450k troops (active and reserve), plus ~100k reaching military age annually. I don't foresee Greece winning anything abroad, but they might be able to hold their mountainous homeland.

Anonymous The other robot June 07, 2015 11:56 PM  

According to globalfirepower.com, Germany has ~325k troops (active and reserve), plus ~790k reaching military age annually.

Is that 790k just men or men and women?

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