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Saturday, June 20, 2015

Holiday

And not the fun kind, in Greece:
Bank of Cyprus, Cyprus’s largest lender, is preparing for an extended bank holiday in Greece as continuing deposits outflows may force authorities to take this type of step and impose capital controls.

“We are preparing to facilitate our customers with operations in Greece with additional liquidity,” a Bank of Cyprus source with knowledge of the situation said on condition of anonymity. “This is something we don’t want to see happening”.

The source said that in recent days the bank saw an increase in deposits inflows, both from Cypriot and Greek depositors, amounting “hundreds of million euros”. Reuters reported on Thursday that European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure told euro area’s finance ministers that he was not sure whether Greek bank will be able to open on Monday.

The Bank of Cyprus source also said that the bank cannot be ruled out that a bank holiday in Greece could also affect the Cypriot banking system via the units of Greek banks operating on the island in the form of deposits outflows. The source was not in position to name the amount in additional liquidity the bank will need in the case of a bank holiday in Greece nor the number of its customers that would be affected.

“In that case, a bank holiday in Greece could also prompt Cypriot authorities to also impose a bank holiday in Cyprus,” the Bank of Cyprus source said.
To say nothing of Spain, then Italy.... I strongly suspect we are witnessing the slow unwinding of first the Euro, then the European Union. As untenable as the Euro now is, the EU is even worse off due to its immigration policies that nearly everyone except the EU Commission, the media, and the invaders hate.

UPDATE: Phoenix Capital Research explains that the Greek bailouts had little to do with Greece per se:
The Greek situation actually had nothing to do with helping Greece. Forget about Greece’s debt issues, or protests, or even the political decisions… the real story was that the bailouts were all about insuring that the EU banks that were using Greek bonds as collateral were kept whole by any means possible.

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40 Comments:

Anonymous Geoff June 20, 2015 9:02 AM  

The unwinding of the Euro and the EU cannot come soon enough.

Blogger Tommy Hass June 20, 2015 9:08 AM  

"the EU is even worse off due to its immigration policies that nearly everyone except the EU Commission, the media, and the invaders hate."

The invaders hate it too. What makes you think we like to be surrounded by gypsies?

http://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/invader

": to enter (a place, such as a foreign country) in order to take control by military force

: to enter (a place) in large numbers

: to enter or be in (a place where you are not wanted)"

Hmmmmmmmm.

If the invaders are not wanted, why are they able to enter? Are a bunch of unarmed migrants superior to the armies of the Ottomans and the Moors?

Blogger Tommy Hass June 20, 2015 9:12 AM  

I also think you underestimate the power an electorate has even in Europe. For example, Merkel's party, that was pro nuclear power, abruptly switched to an anti nuclear power stance after Fukushima.

If being voted out of office can make them do such a turnaround, surely a similar populist sentiment can make them turn around of immigration as well.

The fact that they don't is an indication that the average German, at least, doesn't care enough about immigration for the invaders here to be, well, invaders.

Thoughts?

Blogger Jourdan June 20, 2015 9:18 AM  

I disagree. The extension to Greek banks yesterday of and additional €1.75 in cash, alongside German SPD endorsement of a further extension of the "deadline" for a settlement to July 31 is powerful evidence that the EU recognizes they cannot take the preferred economic steps due to the much more significant political considerations.

Add to that the migrant threat, and Greece's willingness to use it as a weapon, in my judgment Greece cannot lose these negotiations. It will remain in the Euro.

Blogger Jourdan June 20, 2015 9:19 AM  

The Greek banks will open on Monday. That's what the gift of 1.75 Euros late Friday was all about.

Blogger Jourdan June 20, 2015 9:27 AM  

*1.75 billion Euros

Blogger VD June 20, 2015 9:29 AM  

If the invaders are not wanted, why are they able to enter? Are a bunch of unarmed migrants superior to the armies of the Ottomans and the Moors?

Because the relevant laws were laid down prior to the current wave of the invasion. Yes, because they represent soft power to which resistance is slower to form.

Anonymous PhillipGeorge©2015 June 20, 2015 9:43 AM  

something I've been musing on for quite a while is that for the most part the "the destruction of nations" happened without a single shot fired. The world bank, IMF, free trade pacts [cough]. Nations of vibrants, nations under the brotherhood of man/ the universal brotherhood of man. Freemasonry's ecumenicism.

was watching, or rewatching Indiana Jones' Raiders of the lost Ark tonight, looking for the iconic movie lines. Belloq "we are just passing through history, but the Ark is history". Funny how the Jews can claim their history, doctored as it is, but Christians have to be made vibrant at every opportunity. Is the Ark a Jewish artifact or a Christian one? See how prejudice answers that question. The war is over history.

The bank bail ins are nothing but an attempt to protect currencies and manage debt write down as far as I can tell. Won't work.


Anonymous Homesteader June 20, 2015 10:13 AM  

@Tommy Hass

I almost stayed in Germany when my tour was up, but I knew that " Deutschland ist keine land fur einwanderer". And I spoke German quite well, and looked the part.

You're correct-docile, well fed electorates are slow to rouse to the presence of the Other in their midst. Slow doesn't mean never, though.

The ash pile at Flossenberg is over 6 feet high. I'd be aware of that fact, were I you. They're hell on treads when they get going.

Anonymous zen0 June 20, 2015 10:30 AM  

4. Jourdan

I disagree. The extension to Greek banks yesterday of and additional €1.75 in cash, alongside German SPD endorsement of a further extension of the "deadline" for a settlement to July 31 is powerful evidence that the EU recognizes they cannot take the preferred economic steps due to the much more significant political considerations.

Phoenix Capital Research thinks it is not about political OR ecomonics of countries, but a matter of Collateral:

For large European banks, EU nation soveregin debt (such as Greece) is the collateral backstopping hundreds of trillions of Euros worth of derivative trades.....
.....… the real story was that the bailouts were all about insuring that the EU banks that were using Greek bonds as collateral were kept whole by any means possible.


What It Means For Larger Problem Countries

Anonymous a_peraspera June 20, 2015 10:48 AM  

"Bank of Cyprus, Cyprus’s largest lender, is preparing for an extended bank holiday in Greece as continuing deposits outflows may force authorities to take this type of step and impose capital controls."

Forgive my ignorance, but does this translate to, "The government is about to grab all the cash in Greek banks and tell the depositors to piss off?"

Blogger Doom June 20, 2015 10:56 AM  

Europe? I have begun keeping my US accounts trimmed. I've been waiting for a further drop in silver, it is in a HUGE bubble, as is gold (if also kept from going too high). Fake prices on all, but better than stocks and bonds. Yeah, they keep those who would blow the bubble at bay (you and ilk?), but they are also keeping those things from collapsing too. Dammed and controlled, those prices. Going to get a haircut on those, while currency remains in use, until it becomes worthless, one way or the other.

Then metals will have some nominal value or other, one that will probably be just as made up as anything else... How much do you want the item or service, how much does the seller or provider want your silver or gold?

Blogger Red Bane June 20, 2015 11:16 AM  

As an Irish native, a small country that is now one 5th foreign born, if the stats are to be believed, I pray fervently for the end to the EU as soon as possible . The character of my nation is being diluted beyond belief in double quick time. I weep for Ireland.

Blogger Tommy Hass June 20, 2015 11:33 AM  

"You're correct-docile, well fed electorates are slow to rouse to the presence of the Other in their midst. Slow doesn't mean never, though."

I'm just sayin': I was unsure of the lack of electoral response is a sign of the natives not caring enough or if it's a sign of the elites having almost completely neutralized them. But the ability of the electorate to completely neuter one party (the "libertarian" free market party that is pro nuclear power) and to cause a complete 180° in the other government party (the strongest one) is a sign that the electorate doesn't care enough about getting migration as much as they care about nuclear radiation. IOW, here, people are mostly apathetic, rather than occupied by a hostile government.

"The ash pile at Flossenberg is over 6 feet high. I'd be aware of that fact, were I you. They're hell on treads when they get going."

Come on now, Jews are quite a bit more obnoxious and dangerous than us. Derbyshire stated that these kind of actions typically target populations perceived to be superior/more successful rather than those that are inferior. (Germans/Jews, Malays/Chinese, Serbian leaders saying "we might now make money better than Slovenes or Croats, but we can fight better) Not sure if that is true but worth looking into.

What makes you think they won't just deport?

Blogger Cataline Sergius June 20, 2015 11:36 AM  

the real story was that the bailouts were all about insuring that the EU banks that were using Greek bonds as collateral were kept whole by any means possible.

Oooh yesss.I believe I see now.

Silly old Cataline.

Blogger Cataline Sergius June 20, 2015 11:42 AM  

Honestly, I really wasn't getting it until now.

From my rather confused outsider's perspective, it looked like Greece was a hopelessly self-destructive alcoholic who kept holding interventions for himself, where he would insist that his family and friends were failing him by not buying him enough booze.

Anonymous BGS June 20, 2015 11:50 AM  

"The ash pile at Flossenberg is over 6 feet high. I'd be aware of that fact, were I you. They're hell on treads when they get going."

We still cant make incinerators as good as the Germans had. Harrisburg PA is bankrupt because they gave an incinerator repair job to an affirmative action company that caused more dollars worth of damage then they had been paid to fix. Not only did they never work on a project 1/4 the size but they where not smart enough to have the proper bonding so the city had to eat the problem. Of course the city turning black didn't help matters.

Anonymous The other robot June 20, 2015 11:59 AM  

Is England next?

Are they just trying to distract the electorate from the Euro Exit question or the EU exit questiion?

Anonymous Jack Amok June 20, 2015 12:02 PM  

I've been waiting for a further drop in silver, it is in a HUGE bubble, as is gold...

I think silver is relatively cheap compared to gold. Gold is trading at 74x silver. Historically it should be closer to 30. Calling it a bubble ... I dunno. Has the price of gold gone up, or has the value of the dollar gone down? If you think of it as "the price of gold has gone up" then you're probably inclined to think of it as a bubble, since we're used to bubbles and gold hasn't gotten any more intrinsically valuable.

But if you think of it as "the value of the dollar has gone down" you maybe are less optimistic it will regain it's value, as we are very used to inflation eating away at the dollar and there are a bazillion warning signs around.

Take a look at gold compared to wages - something else we can use to gauge the value of money. Thirty years ago, gold was in the mid $300's per oz and the minimum wage was $3.35. You had to work a little over 100 hours doing unskilled, entry-level labor to buy one ounce of gold. In fact, if you price gold in terms of minimum-wage hours, since 1972 it's traded between 64 and 198 hours per ounce.

Today, the Federal minimum wage is $7.50 and $15 is what the trendy cities are going for. Gold at $1200 / oz seems reasonably in-line with history based on wages.

Anonymous jdgalt June 20, 2015 12:15 PM  

@a_peraspera: I predicted this run a year ago when Cyprus instituted a tax on bank accounts, and didn't tell the public until it was too late to avoid the tax by withdrawing their money. No one can trust a bank if that can happen. The most likely scenario during Grexit is worse than that -- it will be a repeat of Argentina's currency crisis (when the peg to the US dollar ended), where bank deposits in dollars were forcibly converted to pesos, THEN the peso was devalued.

Blogger HickoryHammer #0211 June 20, 2015 12:29 PM  

I am honestly shocked they were able to kick the can for most of seven years. I guess GoldmanSachs must have unloaded most of the Greek bonds by now... : P Anyways I would hope most of the Greek people have most of their euros under their matresses by now, ready to trade back in for Drachmas when common sense returns.

Anonymous Rolf June 20, 2015 12:30 PM  

Until they admit that the problem is not liquidity, but solvency, and find the internal fortitude to simply write bad loans off and let the chips fall where they may, there is no solution to the crisis, only ways to stave off the inevitable a little longer while making the problem worse.

It's like watching a student with a useless master's degree and massive debt being forced into a PhD program for an even more useless degree, and telling him he MUST pay for it on a particular credit card that he can't walk away from.

Stupid....

So many smart people, behaving in a way so mind-bogglingly stupid.

Anonymous Homesteader June 20, 2015 12:47 PM  

@TommyHass

Depends on their desperation level.

Desperate people kill.

Anonymous George of the Jungle June 20, 2015 1:48 PM  

Please God, this time make it crash.

Blogger Doom June 20, 2015 2:07 PM  

Jack,

Fair enough, though I do take the dollar into some consideration. Honestly, though, tracking this, that, and the other, when it is all rigged one way or the other, is sort of like spotting a golf ball in a long flight. I have an idea, in my mind anyway, where the ball started, where it is headed, and where it could be. Still, it's small and fast moving... and seems to have a remote control system that can adjust mid-flight. As for cheap? Not so much, to my mind. Better than the $30 it was running, but...

I watched China dump a bunch of silver, which took the price down to ~$15 (when it was running in the $25~30 range, only to have India buy that up, maybe plus, to keep the prices high. The next day? Quickly, anyway. It's a value/price football for the big buyers. Gold, though... that's just silly. I understand part of why... lots of liquidity in a small package. It will always be worth something. It seems to be replacing currency and oil, or was until they put a top cap on it. If you figure it all out, give me a buzz. For now I'm dubious about all of it. But... might bite on a piece of silver or 20. Bleh.

Anonymous Jack Amok June 20, 2015 2:29 PM  

Until they admit that the problem is not liquidity, but solvency,

I'm not sure they can even recognized there's a difference between the two anymore. If you've forgotten - as I think most banksters and politicians have - that money doesn't have any intrinsic value itself but rather is just a measurement of something else of value, then I imagine liquidity and solvency problems would start to look like the same thing. "There's just not enough monies and if we can make more monies we'll be fine."

Anonymous Jack Amok June 20, 2015 3:10 PM  

Honestly, though, tracking this, that, and the other, when it is all rigged one way or the other...

Oh, absolutely. Lots of manipulation, but PMs are a long-term play. Also they're not a working investment (i.e. something you expect dividends or capital appreciation on) but rather a protection against future debasement. That's why I looked at it compared to wages. I've read someone else compare it to a new suit ("a nice men's suit always costs about 1 oz of gold").

If you figure it all out, give me a buzz.

Try this for fun. Estimates are there's 3.4 billion ounces of gold available in the world. With 6.8 billion people, that's 1/2 oz each, but we don't want the same net worth as the average Nigerian. Instead, figure that the US has 25.4% of the world's Net Worth and 4.67% of its population, so the average American needs 2.7 Troy ounces to have a share of the world's gold supply equal to his share of the world's net wealth.

But you don't want to have the same net wealth as the average shlub living in a Houston tract home. The average American's net worth (in current dollars) is about $144k, so each ounce of gold represents about $53k of net worth. Round a bit and call it $50k, so you need 20 Troy ounces of gold for each million in net worth (based on 2015 living standards) you want to preserve. Silver ought to be around 30x gold, so figure 600 oz of Ag for every $1M. That's an analysis based on Dollar collapse and the assumption gold would be highly valuable during the boot-up phase of whatever replaced it. Not saying that's the best way to look at it, just a way that kind of highlights how rare gold and silver really are.

I'm funneling spare cash into silver right now. As long as the Gold-Siver ratio stays over 40, I'll probably keep doing that.

Anonymous patrick kelly June 20, 2015 4:12 PM  

Guns, ammo, and accessories are relatively cheap right now compared to other values (gold, silver, $, gasoline,whiskey)

Blogger HickoryHammer #0211 June 20, 2015 4:42 PM  

Funny story up on Zero Hedge right now about the EU having to print thirteen billion more Euros to meet the needs of Greeks pulling their money out of the banking industry.

Anonymous Jack Amok June 20, 2015 7:46 PM  

Guns, ammo, and accessories are relatively cheap right now

Precious metals should be acquired in priority order. You should already have your stockpiles of lead and brass before you move on to stockpiling gold and silver.

Blogger Doom June 20, 2015 9:06 PM  

Jack,

Now that is put out in terms that... well... yeah... Thank you. And yes, priorities. Although even that can take a radical hit from time to time. Hmm... 600 ounces though? Thankfully, I am not a millionaire! :p Gold, perhaps, in time. Sort of silver first, then layered with gold, for easier... maintenance, and spending flexibility. Not completely sold on the plan, simply though, it's the only one with any merit at this point.

Thanks again. Still coughing on the 600 mark, but.... you never know. These bastards have been kicking the can a long time, and are good. One slip of the foot though... At least I have beans, band-aids, and bullets... for my needs and a bit more.

Blogger AT June 21, 2015 12:47 AM  

Fair value for silver is 50 cents per oz:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2015/06/silver-dollar.html

And why gold is the un-bubble:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2009/12/gold-ultimate-un-bubble.html

Anonymous Jack Amok June 21, 2015 1:19 AM  

Still coughing on the 600 mark

Oh come one, it's only about 41 pounds, get those leg muscles in shape in case you have to hump it cross country! Yeah, that's when gold really comes into it's own. But I figure I'm unlikely to need to relo in an E Unum Pluribus scenario since I'm already in Whitopia, so taking advantage of silver's relative affordability is an acceptable risk for me.

Anonymous Jack Amok June 21, 2015 1:40 AM  

Fair value for silver is 50 cents per oz:

Wow, that's some blog. Make Koanic look clear-headed.

Of course if you just evaluate silver demand based on industrial use, it's hideously overpriced, but then if you just evaluate gold based on industrial use, it's an even worse deal. But gold has value as money (or backing of money). So does silver. In fact, silver probably has a bigger place in monetary history than gold. The word "Dollar" comes from a silver coin after all.

Blogger Dirk Manly June 21, 2015 4:21 AM  

Silver is in a bubble??!?!?!?

Where do you get that from???

Dude, silver is trading BELOW the cost to mine it.

Blogger AT June 21, 2015 1:48 PM  

"Dude, silver is trading BELOW the cost to mine it."

Irrelevant if there is a massive supply overhang for industrial uses and the monetary demand dries up.

"But gold has value as money (or backing of money). So does silver. In fact, silver probably has a bigger place in monetary history than gold. The word "Dollar" comes from a silver coin after all."

Name one central bank or extremely wealthy family that uses silver as an intergenerational store of value.

I didn't put the FOFOA blog out there to try to convince those who are already certain they understand. I simply think that he is the clearest and most thorough writer on the web when it comes to understanding the global financial system, where we've been historically, and where we are headed. I like to pass it on from time to time to smart people who may be interested in a deeper understanding. He has written thousands of pages of very detailed posts, and I strongly encourage anyone who is the least bit interested to spend a month or two reading his blog.

Here is another post for consideration regarding the constant claims of gold price manipulation by the hard money socialists:
http://fofoa.blogspot.com/2013/10/gold-as-forex-currency.html

Anonymous Jack Amok June 21, 2015 3:51 PM  

I simply think that he is the clearest and most thorough writer on the web when it comes to understanding the global financial system

I'm sorry, there is nothing clear about his writing. I'm certainly willing to consider a POV that says silver may crash harder than gold, but the "Silver at .50 cents' post you linked yesterday is a thorough mess. Rather than stating a proposition and then presenting a logical case to support it, he shotguns quotes from a bunch of other writers and commenters with snippets between that don't really tie anything together or explain why any of the quotes are relevant. His writing style makes him come across as a kook who sees proof of his theories in places nobody else does and can't understand why they don't see it too.

Name one central bank or extremely wealthy family that uses silver as an intergenerational store of value.

A Silver Standard was the most common central bank/government monetary standard for several hundred years and it was silver that absolutely dominated international trade after the Spaniards discovered the rich sliver mines in Mexico and Peru. The Spanish Treasure fleets were loaded with silver, not gold.

Silver was only replaced by a Gold Standard gradually over the 18th and into the 19th Centuries because the instability of silver supply due to the breakup of the Spanish Empire.

Sure, gold is more fashionable today as a store of wealth. I'm not saying gold is a poor store of wealth. It's an excellent one. But it's also way out of wack in price compared to silver and platinum. But that is typical of a crisis. Gold spikes harder than silver because it is a more portable means of exchange. Jews know this, a consequence of a long history of having to clear out and start over somewhere else. There is - I am told - an old Jewish saying "one bag of gold, two bags of silver" that you should keep around in case you need to move. The bags of silver are for paying your way out of the old country, the bag of gold is for starting over in the new one. If you were to do the whole thing with silver at historic ratios, you'd need 30+ bags of silver. Not very convenient for fleeing the pogrom.

So sure, nothing wrong with gold. But if you're buying now, it's expensive - currently about 2x what it should be compared to silver and platinum. If you think you might need to flee unrest with whatever you can carry on your back, you probably need to pay the premium and buy gold. But if you're looking for a store of wealth, your fofoa guy is most likely very, very wrong about silver heading for a crash.

Consider, if there is massive economic trauma and the collapse or hyper-inflation of the Dollar, why exactly would that reduce investment demand for silver?

Blogger Kirk Parker June 21, 2015 5:17 PM  

Tommy (#14),

What if the Gastarbeiter don't cooperate? And where would they all go, and would their (perhaps generations-back) countries of origin agree to take them all in?

No, sadly this will not end w/o bloodshed.

Blogger AT June 22, 2015 7:26 PM  

@Jack Amok:

The reason for a silver standard was that there wasn't enough gold available to use as money, when precious metals were used as money. That will never be the case again.

Collapse and hyperinflation will reduce demand for silver (relative to gold) because the shrimps who are too poor to "afford" gold will be liquidating it for cash, and because it will not be used for foreign trade settlement.

Your objects are all addressed thoroughly, but again I'm not trying to convince people like you who have their minds made up. I'm just sharing for those who are looking for deeper answers.

Anonymous Jack Amok June 22, 2015 10:59 PM  

Silver is going to be used for currency for the same reason it has always been preferred for that function - gold coins are too damn small and copper/bronze coins are too damn big to be useful for daily transaction. Silver coins are - like Baby Bear's porridge - just right.

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