ALL BLOG POSTS AND COMMENTS COPYRIGHT (C) 2003-2016 VOX DAY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED.

Monday, June 22, 2015

Prediction: collapse by 2040

I think the collapse will begin seven years sooner, myself:
New scientific models supported by the British government’s Foreign Office show that if we don’t change course, in less than three decades industrial civilisation will essentially collapse due to catastrophic food shortages, triggered by a combination of climate change, water scarcity, energy crisis, and political instability.

Before you panic, the good news is that the scientists behind the model don’t believe it’s predictive. The model does not account for the reality that people will react to escalating crises by changing behavior and policies.

But even so, it’s a sobering wake-up call, which shows that business-as-usual guarantees the end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it: our current way of life is not sustainable.

“The financial and economic system is exposed to catastrophic short-term risks that the system cannot address in its current form,” Dr. Jones told us.

He described GRO’s use of the Agent-Based Model to capture and simulate the multiple factors that led to the 2011 Arab Spring events.

By successfully modeling the “impact of climate-induced drought on crop failures and the ensuing impact on food prices,” he said, the model can then be recalibrated to “experiment with different scenarios.”

    “We ran the model forward to the year 2040, along a business-as-usual trajectory based on ‘do-nothing’ trends?—?that is, without any feedback loops that would change the underlying trend. The results show that based on plausible climate trends, and a total failure to change course, the global food supply system would face catastrophic losses, and an unprecedented epidemic of food riots. In this scenario, global society essentially collapses as food production falls permanently short of consumption.”

Another steering committee member raised their hand: “So is this going to happen? Is this a forecast?”

“No,” said Jones. “This scenario is based on simply running the model forward. The model is a short-term model. It’s not designed to run this long, as in the real world, trends are always likely to change, whether for better or worse.”

“Okay, but what you’re saying is that if there is no change in current trends, then this is the outcome?” continued the questioner.

Jones nodded with a half-smile. “Yes,” he said quietly.

In other words, simply running the Agent-Based Model forward cannot generate a reliable forecast of the future. For instance, no one anticipated the pace at which solar and wind energy would become cost-competitive with fossil fuels. And the fact that governments and insurers are now beginning to scope such risks, and explore ways of responding, shows how growing awareness of the risks has the potential to trigger change.

Whether that change is big enough to avoid or mitigate the worst is another question. Either way, the model does prove in no uncertain terms that present-day policies are utterly bankrupt.
The two main factors being left out of the equation are mass migration and war, which are essentially the same thing, the latter being a consequence of the former. As Martin van Creveld has repeatedly observed, we are in a post-Trinitarian War environment; neither the Military nor the State is relevant any more. War is no longer State vs State, but Tribe vs Tribe.

These Tribes can be based on ideology, nationality, race, or religion, or any combination therein. They are identity-tribes. The Islamic State is an amalgamation of ideology and religion whereas the Charleston shootings were purely based on race. This is not asymmetric war as it is conventionally understood, but transgeographical, post-Trinitarian identitarian war. Battlefields, lines, and even armies are irrelevant in this new form of warfare, as the identity tribes to which the soldiers are loyal are more self-defined than externally bestowed.

But the fact that the current system of industrial civilization cannot be expected to survive as it is past 2040 is not insignificant. Yes, people will change their behavior in expectation of it, but if history is a reliable guide, most of those changes will increase the instability of the system, not decrease it.

Labels: , ,

135 Comments:

OpenID thenoisyrogue June 22, 2015 6:00 AM  

The Arab Spring events were not caused by global warming, climate change, or any other such rubbish. They were caused by political mismanagement:

http://www.futuredirections.org.au/publications/food-and-water-crises/1192-food-crises-and-political-turmoil-the-impact-of-egypt-s-military-intervention-on-national-food-security.html

Here's a graph of Egypt wheat production. Looks pretty good to me:

http://www.indexmundi.com/agriculture/?country=eg&commodity=wheat&graph=production

I reckon overpopulation and a failed economy had a bit to do with it as well.

Anonymous old man in a villa June 22, 2015 6:10 AM  

The failure of modern industrialized agriculture is going to be a result of soil depletion rather than a- what is it they predict in 25 years? 1 degree warmer? 2?

You want to grow 1/3 or a nation's produce in a desert supplied by water that's already earmarked for urban areas with tens of millions of people flushing toilets with potable water or washing cars or watering lawns, then yeah, you're going to run into agricultural shortages, but it isn't going to be a couple of degrees warmth that's the primary factor, IF THAT IS EVEN TRUE.

Ask a farmer who uses traditional methods if there's any problems with production based on climate change over the past three or four decades, the answer is a resounding, Huh?

Industrialized agriculture is doomed to fail because you cannot mechanize Nature.

Blogger ScuzzaMan June 22, 2015 6:14 AM  

Have to agree regarding responses that induce further instability(ies). As second comment points out, blaming global warming for political mismanagement is hardly likely to improve future oolitical management.

Indeed as a libertarian minded man, I'd opine that the very idea of and attempt at political management is bound to destabilize.

Blogger Gordon June 22, 2015 6:27 AM  

Yeah, not so much. There's many assumptions in that model that the article describes, and I suspect a lot more are not described. Why is it that folks always assume that a rise in temperature brings droughts? No one really knows, but you don't get sweet Big Warming grants by not being alarmist.

And points to the author of the excerpt for pointing out that the authors were explicit in stating that their model is a short-term one, and letting it just run longer is interesting, but not predicative.

Blogger Jourdan June 22, 2015 6:43 AM  

OT - Reports coming into D.C. this morning that EU political leaders struck a deal with Greece's leadership late last night/early this morning to resolve crisis, Greece to remain in Euro, EU, Greece to receive billions in more emergency funding to pay off IMF and other creditors in a TARP-like program. (aka, U.S. and EU taxpayers to make good private sector banking losses).

Blogger Alexandros HoMegas June 22, 2015 6:49 AM  

I noticed that Tribalism is more strong than ever, the Old Testament is basically about Tribal Warfare, the Anglos-Saxon Empire rules the world but they're persuaded by their jewish elements like Dr. E. J. Dillon noticed in the Paris Conference after WWI.

Anonymous Steve June 22, 2015 6:55 AM  

New scientific models supported by the British government’s Foreign Office show that if we don’t change course, in less than three decades industrial civilisation will essentially collapse

Scientific, eh? That's concerning...

The new models are being developed at Anglia Ruskin University’s Global Sustainability Institute

Phew! They had me worried for a second there.

Anglia Ruskin 'University' is one of those joke institutions that have popped up like weeds in the UK education landscape since the disastrous expansion of higher education in the 90's led to every second petrol station or pet shop being able to call itself a "university".

Had a read at their website and they're pushing the usual woo that made Paul Ehrlich famous. Just toned down a tad.

Which isn't to say we aren't headed for some sort of upheaval. We may very well be. But we don't really need to worry about environmental challenges such as climate change, natural capital challenges such as resource limits or social challenges such as local and global inequity, because those things are just bullshit progressive talking points.

I'm actually cautiously optimistic about the future, and here's why:

* the West's Cultural Revolution is already showing signs of running out of steam.

* The Third World is getting richer. Not as quickly as we might like, and not all regions are developing equally, but the fact is people in Africa and Asia are generally better off than they were 20 years ago.

* That's good news for mankind as a whole, and good news for the West because it'll work to reduce the "push" factor of mass migration. We need to stop the "pull" factor too, but every little helps.

* Western (and Japanese) birth rates are in the toilet, but it's daft to assume they'll remain so indefinitely. In fact, societal stress (such as war) often causes baby booms. We don't know what's around the corner, but there's no need to panic yet.

* Islam is currently in an aggressive expansionist phase, but we've seen those before. We've also seen Europe wracked with sectarian conflict before. Maybe there will be a European Caliphate based in Stockholm by 2050... but maybe not. Maybe there will be a Reconquista. Or maybe Muslims and non-Muslims alike will get tired of religious strife and move on - the way Protestants and Catholics did in the 18th century after spending a hundred years murdering each other. ISIS runs the risk of being killed by its own success - those kids flocking to Syria and Iraq think they want perpetual jihad. Maybe they do, or maybe the appeal of beheading and burning people will wear off as they live under the reality of what they have created.

The future is always uncertain, but we're alive, aren't we? We can laugh and write and love and raise our children as best we can.

People on the right often fall into despair, as if we're characters in the Terminator franchise and the robot holocaust is inevitable. But it isn't.

Our ancestors faced much darker days than these. The Black Death, the Mongols, WW2... when I was a boy, we were told to expect global thermonuclear war with the Soviet Union any day. We're still here, and still having fun.

Blogger Dexter June 22, 2015 6:58 AM  

Meh. This is more globaloney scary talk. Give us all your money, give up all your freedom.... because climate change! because science!

Anonymous Lucius June 22, 2015 7:06 AM  

Rather, the political order arising from the nation-state rubble will be based on allegiance to one's cell phone provider. The benighted Verizonites versus the effete Applions and so on (corporations being the last remaining redoubt against state power).

All is proceeding as The Diamond Age predicted. If so, where do I render my application for New Atlantis?

Blogger Nate June 22, 2015 7:15 AM  

and how much of this model's prediction is based on global warming bullshit?

Anonymous NorthernHamlet June 22, 2015 7:16 AM  

With the event past about Cali migration to other areas, I wanted to ask:

In the states, where should a regular guy even go long-term as these issues start becoming greater?

Anonymous Giuseppe June 22, 2015 7:23 AM  

OT: (based onbprevious post with morevthan 250 comments)

Gents and ladies,
I propose that once a troll has been identified as a troll, no response other than perhaps "VD/Markku, troll at 12 o clock, please nuke" or "Go away you lying SJW liar. Your lies are showing. As always"
once, and then that's it.

Keep in mind that making us use up energy better spent exposing them for the lying sacks of shit they are in other parts of the Internet is part of their gameplan.

If you MUST respond I suggest you do so by posting elsewhere an expose on one or more of them. Tweet, blog post, comment on other blogs, provide links, etc. In other words, respond to each of their lies with truth and expose them.

Blogger Bobo #117 June 22, 2015 7:29 AM  

Optimists...

Anonymous RedJack #22 June 22, 2015 7:31 AM  

Industrialized agriculture is doomed to fail because you cannot mechanize Nature.

You can not build an agriculture economy based on irrigation in the desert. The Indians tried that in the Southwest (the Navajo), and it didn't work out. They were much smarter about it than the current group of people though, they realized it faster and moved to where the rain is.
However you will see the end of things like lettuce year round and fresh tomatoes in December. I can grow some of that in my green house longer than a typical area 5 growing season, but the end of winter means I need a lot of heat and lights.
That isn't a major problem, there are a lot of methods of preserving food, but it does mean we will have to change a bit.

Blogger W.LindsayWheeler June 22, 2015 7:32 AM  

Wait for 2040?

All these materialistic projections?

America is Sodom and Gomorrah and the Tower of Babel all rolled into one.

My prediction is that the 2nd Coming is around the bend. The Church is in apostasy, Hell is close to prevailing and people everywhere have rejected God. Climate change ain't nothing. I think God is angry. There is no more wheat to be had on this earth. It is time to end it. God is going to harvest all he is going to get. The wheat are gone. The fields, they are filled with tares and goats.

Anonymous rienzi June 22, 2015 7:39 AM  

I remember when the world ran out of the following:

Gold 1981
Mercury and Silver 1985
Tin 1987
Zinc 1990
Petroleum 1992
Copper, Lead, and Natural Gas 1993

What? You don't remeber any of that? But, but, but..... the august, prestigious CLUB OF ROME worked its' SCIENTIFIC MODELS back in 1972 and said that it was going to happen, so it DID you troglodyte deniers.

So hand over all your liberties to us, because SCIENCE!

Blogger VD June 22, 2015 7:40 AM  

My prediction is that the 2nd Coming is around the bend.

Gee, that's a surprise. And new.

Look. EVERY SINGLE PERSON who has predicted the 2nd Coming is around the bend has been wrong for more than a thousand years. There are barely any wars taking place around the world, much less "wars and rumors of war" these days.

This is NOT an encouragement to start babbling about eschatology. Quite the opposite. I am not interested in anyone's opinion on the subject, because no matter what it is, you are wrong. Even Jesus did not know the time, which means you most certainly don't.

Blogger Cataline Sergius June 22, 2015 7:42 AM  

and how much of this model's prediction is based on global warming bullshit?

It hardly matters. AGW has to be liturgically mentioned these days, if you are talking about the end of the world.

They couldn't possibly be taken seriously if they didn't.

Blogger Red Bane June 22, 2015 7:43 AM  

I think we are just 5 years, or less, away from major societal change.

Blogger Red Bane June 22, 2015 7:48 AM  

In the states, where should a regular guy even go long-term as these issues start becoming greater?

Go somewhere cold. Most of the feckless won't want to, or won't be capable of dealing with extended periods of inclement weather with no recourse to gas , electric or oil heating.

Blogger Shimshon June 22, 2015 7:48 AM  

I remember when the world was running out of heat in the 1970s, and then started running out of cold in the 1990s.

Anonymous Rivercity Trader June 22, 2015 7:52 AM  

Glad to the folks here are too smart for this. I have no more faith in this group's model than I do in the work of the Club of Rome back in the 60s.

This is a thinly veiled plea for more government control. More top down management by people without engineering degrees will surely save the day.

If a collapse comes without an external push like an asteroid impact, it will be a result of mismanagement, not the weather.

Anonymous Rivercity Trader June 22, 2015 7:56 AM  

grrr ... Glad that...

Anonymous rienzi June 22, 2015 7:56 AM  

RedJack#22 "However you will see the end of things like lettuce year round and fresh tomatoes in December."

I can get that stuff locally grown year round at the farmer's market in Immokalee, Fl. You could easily grow enough for the entire country in FL should push come to shove. Tons of square miles currently being used for pasture, citrus groves, and sugar cane. growing area 9 and 10, more water than you could ever use. It's not something to worry about.

Blogger Cataline Sergius June 22, 2015 7:58 AM  

@Vox

Just curious. Does your model for economic collapse include draconian wage and price controls?

I only ask because in college I put together a paper on the start of the European portion of WWII.

Long digression short. The Nazi Reichmark was supposed to have collapsed in 1937. However draconian wage and price controls put that off long enough for Germany to start the wholesale looting of entire countries.

Not that that could save the dollar. Nothing politically feasible can at this point.

Anonymous grey enlightenment June 22, 2015 7:58 AM  

What ever happened to the WHO's Ebola predictions of 'millions dead'? Pretty much all these predictions are useless..may as well flip a coin. And as others said, it's a push for more govt. control under the guise of faulty science.

Blogger Jourdan June 22, 2015 7:58 AM  

The Foreign Office element in this report worked with DFID and, on USG side, State's food security people and USAID. I have worked with these people; they are solid, knowledgeable and dependable, technically.

Their weakness is a lack of political understanding and a wholesale acceptance of the status quo and its conventional wisdom.

That being the case, my initial impression is, yes, their conclusions are largely right but their recommendations will hew to the view that white-majority nations must be responsible.

That said, UN, FAO and the various Development Banks' involvement is not a good sign; they would sign on to anything that promised more budgets, programs and staff.

Blogger Jourdan June 22, 2015 8:02 AM  

Also: time to start buying Vault-Tec stock...

Anonymous Bohm June 22, 2015 8:07 AM  

the fact that the current system of industrial civilization cannot be expected to survive as it is past 2040 is not insignificant

I love VD’s understatement.

Yes, people will change their behavior in expectation of it, but if history is a reliable guide, most of those changes will increase the instability of the system, not decrease it.

I suppose this statement is true, if somewhat glib. Systemic instability is systemic instability, whether its arises from the root cause or ‘destabilising’ behavioural changes in response to it. In any case, I see precious little sign -in Western societies - of behavioural changes so far. I live in hope.

I wouldn’t discount the state or armies just yet. The view that we’ll all descend (ascend ?) toward tribal affiliations over the state comes from a peculiarly western perspective, which is amazingly self-absorbed. This is particularly true of the US, where decades of unprecedented prosperity (or most) appears to have enervated individuals’ allegiance to, and gratitude for, the security of central government.

Instead, people prefer to think of themselves as part of a ‘tribe’ -based on whatever. And some believe these ‘tribes’ actually have a political dimension, when in fact they are merely symptoms of a ‘decadent’ society. VD’s preoccupation with SJWs and - of all things- the Hugo awards, is a minor case in point.

That said, we are currently witnessing in the Middle East true tribal warfare. And armies, battlefields and lines are still very much in evidence.

Also, I’m not sure about this ‘post-Trinitarian tribal war’ thing. I’m presuming ‘Trinitarian’ refers to Clausewitz’s definition of war’s essential qualities. How will these change in the new era of warfare between your tribes? How and why will armies become ‘irrelevant’?

Of course, your ‘Trinitarian’ could refer to something else entirely, in which case I’m totally out of the loop! I’m not trying to nitpick, but genuinely intrigued.

Anonymous Bohm June 22, 2015 8:10 AM  

Just to be clear, both sides of the SWJ thing are symptoms of 'decadence', in my view.

Anonymous Rusty Fife June 22, 2015 8:28 AM  

Trinitarian warfare definition comes from Martin van Creveld. It means warfare where the distinction between government, armed forces and people is maintained.

Anonymous PhillipGeorge©2015 June 22, 2015 8:34 AM  

much less "wars and rumors of war" these days

that's surprising. It's not active hot wars that are suggested as a sequelae of Ukraine, South China sea accidents but 3 hours long scorched earth wars. Glassification incidents. Given a lot of readers are soft for survivalists look at NORAD moving out of New York into the Cheyenne Mountains. What do NORAD know that you don't VD?

As to Jesus coming back. As with Isaac Newton I suggest God left a cypher, a cryptogram. And I think it has been cracked. I put money on it.

When Jesus rode into Jerusalem, the date was perfectly predictable - yet no-one had. Which is sobering.

Blogger Nate June 22, 2015 8:35 AM  

"Go somewhere cold."

This is stupid. Go somewhere that food grows on its own from trees. You need water. You need shelter... but there are places in the world where food and water are plentiful and shelter is much less necessary. Going to some place cold is dumb.

Blogger Nate June 22, 2015 8:37 AM  

"I can get that stuff locally grown year round at the farmer's market in Immokalee, Fl. You could easily grow enough for the entire country in FL should push come to shove. Tons of square miles currently being used for pasture, citrus groves, and sugar cane. growing area 9 and 10, more water than you could ever use. It's not something to worry about."

Indeed. The notion that the world is going to run out of food is laughable. Beyond laughable.

Anonymous Roundtine June 22, 2015 8:39 AM  

Western societies have a very negative mood. Infighting is rising (exacerbated by immigration policies), the Boomers aren't handling aging or mortality well, everyone is thinking about how to split up the pie more fairly, or is reacting to constraints by adapting, not overcoming. All the alternative energy and green, sustainable living stuff is all about living within your means, adapting to the collapse. I don't think it's a bad idea to be ready for that, but people in China are not worrying about a collapse, they are working on next generation nuclear power to create the energy needed for a growing economy. They have far worse water shortages in north and west China and the response is massive water diversion projects and investment in desalination. In the West, people don't want to fight for civilization anymore, they're done competing. The collapse is moral and psychological more than anything. The coming financial collapse is the revelation of this, not the cause.

Anonymous clk June 22, 2015 8:41 AM  

So to be clear ... 2033 or 2040 is NOT the end of mankind or the 2nd coming, -- just the next big inflection point..... do the experts have any idea how long the unrest will last and what the outcome of the unrest might look like. .... I am trying to make my selections for my 401k and decide what supplies I need in the bunker .. :)


Its not hard to imagine that at some point the free market system will crash ..we cant grow for ever in a closed system .. any model, of any value, much show growth eventually going to 0 as long as the amount of input is fixed... the only question will be at t = ?

One of my favorites

"There's always an Arquillian Battle Cruiser, or a Corillian Death Ray, or an intergalactic plague that is about to wipe out all life on this miserable little planet, and the only way these people can get on with their happy lives is that they DO NOT KNOW ABOUT IT!"

Sometimes ignorance is bliss ...

Blogger Sherwood family June 22, 2015 8:42 AM  

A great burning is coming. Like an old forest thick with underbrush that has been saved time and again from the natural process of smaller periodic fires by overzealous park rangers and fire fighters, when this one finally lights up it is going to be catastrophic. It will take a little while before people figure out that it is a full blown conflagration but once they realize it there will be no escaping the blaze. It will burn up the societal deadwood and with luck, at the end of the day new seedlings of civilzation will push up from the ashes of the old.

Blogger Robert What? June 22, 2015 8:44 AM  

The wildcard in all this, at least in the US, is on who's side will the military and police will be: the producers and (legitimate) citizens, or the invaders?

Anonymous RedJack #22 June 22, 2015 8:49 AM  

rienzi and Nate.
Florida, and the South, could replace some of what is grown in California, but there are issues.

For one thing, bugs. Growing via irrigation means that most of the pests have to cross open arid land to get to you. Grow in the South and you need a lot of pesticide (not huge deal, but it will add cost). The other major reason the food production moved to California was weather. In the inland valleys of California, there just isn't much. A consistent growing season, with little disruption by mother nature till the water runs out. Which it has.

Making the switch is doable. Heck, a large portion of the US onions used to be grown near me in Iowa, but there are costs involved. The other thing is you will see NIMBY's come out of the wood work. Funded by the current growers. They will be making all sorts of odd claims. I saw it myself once Iowa passed California for grape production.

Anonymous PhillipGeorge©2015 June 22, 2015 8:49 AM  

Watched "the impossible" movie tonight, about a family of five swept away off the beach in Thailand by the Boxing Day tsunami. What happened to them is impossible. Only it happened. Young children flotsam, in a tidal wave. The future may not be so kind to many - but no one will say they weren't warned for all of those two thousand years.

Anonymous Legatus June 22, 2015 8:55 AM  

So, climate change, water scarcity, energy crisis, and political instability., are these the real threats?

Climate change, also known as “global warming”, since carbon dioxide can only warm things, there has been no warming now for 18 years and six months. It appears that nature has ways to keep the climate of the earth relatively stable.

Well, bi-stable, it shifts from 10,000 years of warm periods to 100,000 years of ice age (which is less of a temperature change than you think), and the next ice age is scheduled for...today. So naturally, we are told to be terrified of a runaway warming that has never happened in earths history.

Want something to be worried about? The politics of “climate change”, where a small number of bureaucrats take control of all world production, now that is something to be worried about.

Water scarcity, lately, seems to be caused not by drought or such, but by bureaucrats. In California, they flushed 1.4 trillion gallons out to sea to “save” 8 small fish, flushing it out at the maximum rate allowed by law for at least a year during what they called “the worst drought ever” (it isn't, it is just a common periodic drought as seen in any desert belt country).

Energy crisis, see climate change above, the crisis is bureaucrats shutting down power plants. My favorite is shutting down nuclear, after the horrible nuclear disaster in Japan, the one that killed, injured, or even endangered absolutely no one.

Political instability, ya think? With the above happening, you bet! What they are really saying is “yes, we are causing the disasters, but you must let us do even more!”.

In fact, that is the message of this whole thing. We need more bureaucrats to eat out our substance! And they need pensions, big pensions! (Pensions are where we pay people who do no work, bureaucrats think that they alone deserve to retire at age 52 with several times the pay of average people after a few decades of slacking off and long weekends.)

Anonymous Steve June 22, 2015 9:00 AM  

Giuseppe - you speak wisely, consigliere. I have a mental picture of you standing at the right hand of the Dark Lord as he strokes a cat and half-listens to the halting pleas of a nervous minion.

Dark Lord Vox...I am honoured, and grateful...that you invited me to your home...on the wedding day of your...daughter. May their first child...be a masculine child. I pledge my never ending loyalty...

The Dark Lord stops petting the cat and looks up, expectantly. His feline familiar glares at the hapless minion.

"Giuseppe," he sighs, in a voice as cold and sharp as icicles, "this minion professes loyalty. Do you believe him?"

Giuseppe appraises the sweating minion, cracks his enormous knuckles, and bares a wolfish grin.

"I'm afraid I do not believe him, my Dread Liege. He has been caught in flagrante delicto with Irene Gallo and a cucumber. Nasty business. Two of our watcher-minions were struck blind by the awful sight. They had to be put down."

The Dark Lord raises an eyebrow.

"A cucumber...? No, spare us the details, Giuseppe. Bakeneko here has a surprisingly delicate constitution. Don't you, my precious yokai?"

The cat yowls her assent.

"There is only one solution to this regrettable problem," continues the Dark Lord. "Bakeneko, teach this treacherous minion what happens to those who stray from the Bone-strewn Path."

The cat affixes the minion with her yellow eyes, and a trickle of blood slivers out of his nostrils.

His eyes bulge with horror, but he cannot move. Caught like a moth by a lepidopterist's pin, he croons and gargles as the yokai devours his sanity.

Presently, the ex-minion slumps in his chair, his face now a lifeless mask, twisted into a silent scream of eternal fear.

"Have this one petrified and placed in my Hall of Amusements, Giuseppe. Next to the Philip Sandifer enclosure."

"As you will it, my Dread Liege."

Blogger VFM bot #188 June 22, 2015 9:09 AM  

"Go somewhere cold."

This is stupid. Go somewhere that food grows on its own from trees. You need water. You need shelter... but there are places in the world where food and water are plentiful and shelter is much less necessary. Going to some place cold is dumb.


A clean miss by Nate! Don't see that very often. When the balloon goes up, food gets scarce, there is no law, much less order, and other homo sapiens are the greatest danger...go someplace cold if you want to survive. The higher requirements for survival in cold-weather environments tend to keep the riff-raff out of the neighborhood.

There's a reason Western Civilization flowered in the cold-weather climes of Europe.

Anonymous BigGaySteve June 22, 2015 9:10 AM  

So the same time whites become minorities in their homelands civilization will collapse. Yea it take a lot of Asians and whites to support a single 3rd worlder. Here is the story of the Swiss who have a better accounting system than leftists showing how a single squatmonster family eats up around $50,000 a month in taxes, and leeched 1/3 of the total tax base for a town of 1000+ productive whites on a pay as you go tax system. We are in a similar situation but we cant access the data & its put on debt http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2758055/Outraged-Swiss-village-1-000-residents-forced-raise-taxes-African-refugee-mother-seven-moves-costs-40-000-month-benefits.html

Blogger Chris Mallory June 22, 2015 9:25 AM  

"Florida, and the South, could replace some of what is grown in California, but there are issues. "

Back in the early 90s I worked as a produce department manager for a couple of different grocery stores. Very little of our product came from California. Most of it was from Florida, Texas or Mexico.
Just looking on the internet, Green Giant gets most of it's corn from the Upper Midwest or the Pacific Northwest. Most green beans are grown in the Pacific Northwest. Our strawberries start out in Florida in the early part of the season and gradually come from producers to the north as the season goes along. Melons come from Missouri and Georgia mostly.

California could fall into the ocean and most of America could still eat pretty well.

Blogger rumpole5 June 22, 2015 9:29 AM  

The prediction that gave rise to this post is just more sensationalist bullshit. The future is unknowable. Islands in both the Pacific and Atlantic have huge cracks across them that will create massive tsunami waves when the cracks open up and side part of the island into the sea. Yellowstone could blow up tomorrow and bury much of the USA in ash.
On the other hand, technologies could be developed to solve any production problem we face. For instance, effective male contraceptives or realistic female sex bots could transform demographics, and thorium or other cheap power could make desal water usable.

Fracking and robots (including self drive trucks and cars) are changing everything. 3D printing means that we will soon order goods by wire, have them printed up at the local 3D print center and have them delivered by auto drone. If it is a car it will just drive itself to wherever you are. A few weeks ago I bought low priced hydroponic lettuce.

These idiots can't tell you whether it is going to rain next week. They certainly can't tells us anything about 2040.

Blogger Jourdan June 22, 2015 9:29 AM  

@nate - from a focus only on food and food growing, cold locales don't make as much sense as warm-to-hot, where the food is jus there for the taking.

However, in a context where our tribe is competing with others, it makes a lot of sense.

Europeans/European-Americans have the social and cultural structure to thrive there, we are physically well-adapted to it and, crucially, our tribe's enemies do poorly there and historically fight even worse than their norm.

Blogger VFM bot #188 June 22, 2015 9:47 AM  

Yeah, what Jourdan said!

Anonymous clk June 22, 2015 9:52 AM  

If "it hits the fan" .. I would move north too... for all the reasons above plus sans pesticides, antibiotics, public works/flood control/sewers/water treatment and refrigeration -- Florida etc .. will be a dangerous place to live... I am thinking original 13 colonies type existence, 18th century is probably where the society resets too -- Maine, Nova Scotia (Canadian Maritimes) --- the ocean will play again an important role as the main avenue of transport.

Anonymous Quartermaster June 22, 2015 9:52 AM  

For the USA the end is much sooner than 2033-2040. I doubt it lasts another 10 years, and most likely has less than 5 years of life left to it.

Anonymous clk June 22, 2015 9:56 AM  

....and certainly populations will have to reduce to 18th century levels too -- sans modern fertilizers, tractors, pesticides, hybrid crops etc the amount of food that can be grown with be much less...

Anonymous BigGaySteve June 22, 2015 10:01 AM  

and how much of this model's prediction is based on global warming bullshit?

Its gay pride week in NYC and Al Gore the high priest of the impotent gods of global warming said it would be underwater by now. http://pjmedia.com/tatler/2015/06/13/wasnt-new-york-city-supposed-to-be-underwater-by-now/

Industrialized agriculture is doomed to fail because you cannot mechanize Nature.
You can but the heirloom varieties you grow & pick yourself will always taste better and be more healthy.

I remember when the world ran out of the following: Gold 1981 Mercury and Silver 1985 Tin 1987 Zinc 1990 Petroleum 1992Copper

They ran out of cheap easy to get supplies.

In the states, where should a regular guy even go long-term as these issues start becoming greater?
The northwest redoubt has a lot of people prepared for a collapse. But anywhere with a good water supply will be better than desert.

There's a reason Western Civilization flowered in the cold-weather climes of Europe.
There's a reason Civilization flowered in the cold-weather climes of Europe & Asia called K style evolution.

In the West, people don't want to fight for civilization anymore,

People don't want to fight to support more of LaTrina's 28 illegitimate crack babies.

Going to some place cold is dumb.

Not only what 43. #188 said but if you go somewhere cold that a lot of people have coal heat, leftists will not be able to put section 8 3rd worlders in your area because non Asian minorities are not smart enough to be able to do the minimal maintenance that coal heat requires. The fact that kudzu is edible means that some southern regions will be able to support even the stupidest people. I guess I should plug the Caragana Arborescens (Also known as Siberian Pea Tree, Siberian Peashrub) a nitrogen fixing shrub that produces legumes of 12.4% fatty oils and up to 36% protein (Meng et al., 2009). from USDAzones 2-7. Also there are grapes that can grow as far north as zone 3, and grapes once planted can provide food even 100 years out. http://www.northscaping.com/IZArticles/IS-0128

Blogger Red Bane June 22, 2015 10:02 AM  

"Go somewhere cold."

This is stupid. Go somewhere that food grows on its own from trees. You need water. You need shelter... but there are places in the world where food and water are plentiful and shelter is much less necessary. Going to some place cold is dumb.


I guess you have never heard of things known as apples or wild grapes, to name just fruits that grow well in the northern climes. I live in area that gets 6 months of snowy winter.Yes, the veggie growth season is short, but, we have this technology called 'canning', whereby one preserves summer foods for use during the winter. Also the hunting and winter fishing is excellent.

Most people are going to be heading for easier , warmer climates. If you don't want to be bothered by the feckless hordes, go somewhere cold and learn how to keep warm in winter.

Blogger Cataline Sergius June 22, 2015 10:03 AM  

Going to some place cold is dumb.

I have seen fewer things in my life funnier than Southerns dealing with more than a 1/4 inch of snow.

Blizzard Warning for North Carolina! An entire inch of snow is forecast!

Small children and the elderly absolutely will not survive!

Cannibalism is expected in Lumberton! (*Not that that has anything to do with the blizzard. That's just Lumberton.*)

Bottom line people the end times are here. Gather in churches and prepare.

Anonymous Gunnutmegger June 22, 2015 10:04 AM  

It's fun to debate the impending doom, and fantasize about what life will be like when it happens and the Eloi die off. But...

When the collapse happens, what will each of you do about it?

Here are 2 articles with very sound, specific advice on preparing for societal collapse:

http://bayourenaissanceman.blogspot.com/2008/08/lessons-learned-from-hurricanes-katrina.html

http://www.thesurvivalistblog.net/how-to-get-a-family-of-four-quickly-prepped-for-one-year-in-the-easiest-way-possible/

You owe it to yourselves and your families to take a close look at your level of preparedness and take steps to ensure that people like you survive the collapse. Having guns to defend yourself is only one part of the plan.

Anonymous JI June 22, 2015 10:15 AM  

They lost me at the phrase "climate change", right in the beginning, but I slogged through anyway. Do any of you know what they mean by "no one anticipated the pace at which solar and wind energy would become cost-competitive with fossil fuels"? That sounds to me like the authors are saying solar and wind power are economically viable, or at least are very close to being cost-comparable with coal and oil. Is that what they mean? Or did they mean the opposite, that the pace has been very slow compared with the optimistic outlooks of, say, the 1970's.

Anonymous CarpeOro June 22, 2015 10:21 AM  

@7

" Or maybe Muslims and non-Muslims alike will get tired of religious strife and move on - the way Protestants and Catholics did in the 18th century after spending a hundred years murdering each other. "

Category error. You make the basic (and false) assumption that at its base Islam may be a religion of peace. It is a religion of raid and plunder - all non-adherents are targets. The only places that they live in peace? Where they are a small minority of the population. Where they are the majority? Have you read anything ever about how non-muslims are treated there? You do know that a non-Muslim's testimony is worth nothing against that of a Muslim according to the Koran right?

Anonymous clk June 22, 2015 10:22 AM  

The peashrub is very interesting ... its another of these once were foods and now treated as invasive species ... I always look to the invasive species as potential edible foods - purslane, plantains, mustard, autumn berry....even phragmite..

Blogger Zoot Fenster June 22, 2015 10:27 AM  

I surveyed ~80 business and church acquaintances, all rational gainfully employed people between age 22 and 80. For some reason, those with Asian heritage were uniformly positive about the future. But ~70 folks agreed that catastrophic economic or social change would happen in the next five years. That was eight years ago. We seem to be no better at predicting short term collapse than the Second Coming.

Blogger Tommy Hass June 22, 2015 10:30 AM  

"It is a religion of raid and plunder - all non-adherents are targets."

Oh shut the fuck up you thermite.

"Where they are the majority? Have you read anything ever about how non-muslims are treated there?"

Yeah, because there is no Islamic country that is different from Saudi Arabia or ISIS. LOL.

Turkey, Basnia, Azerbaijan, Albania, Indonesia, Syria before your leaders attacked Assad, hell, even Iran isn't that bad if the Jews there are to be believed.

You are full of shit.

"You do know that a non-Muslim's testimony is worth nothing against that of a Muslim according to the Koran right?"

Whereas the Old Testament is just brimming with compassion towards those not lucky enough to be chosen. LOL.

Anonymous Athor Pel June 22, 2015 10:32 AM  

"42. Steve June 22, 2015 9:00 AM
... Bakeneko ...
"



That's funny.

Blogger Cail Corishev June 22, 2015 10:32 AM  

I think the "go somewhere cold" idea assumes that the zombies will spread across all the land like a plague of locusts, and that comes from most people living in cities, so they've lost the sense of just how vast the country is. It also assumes an immediate crash that drives people out of the cities in large hordes, rather than a gradual dissolution that turns them into Detroits.

For a zombie to arrive at my house, first he has to leave Ferguson with enough gas in his car to drive 2 hours, after driving around the city looking for unlooted grocery stores until he gives up and heads out into the unknown. He has to drive past dozens of exits leading off through the corn, not get shot trying to rob any truck stops, then take the exit nearest me. He has to turn away from the signs pointing to eateries in the other direction, then take a couple more turns onto progressively smaller, more out-of-the-way roads, all while driving past numerous houses. Then for some reason he stops at mine, even though it's less prosperous-looking than many he already passed, and there's a dog barking at him in the front yard. The odds just get awfully small, even if you assume you're starting with millions on the move. While I'd prefer a couple more hours distance, it's not enough risk to leave family and things I've established here.

The most important thing is to get away from the cities, away from large groups of people who can't provide for themselves. Beyond that, I'd say choose what you like. If you like the north, the cold does offer some advantages when it comes to food preservation and pest die-off. If you like the south, you don't have to worry about freezing to death. Have a good supply of water, practice growing stuff where you are, store enough to get yourself through any non-growing season, and be at least a couple hours from any cities and off the beaten path.

Blogger David-093 June 22, 2015 10:37 AM  

@Cataline

It happens every year too. One "big" storm and it's suddenly the apocalypse. And then all the bread and milk is gone for three days.

Blogger Student in Blue June 22, 2015 10:38 AM  

@Bohm
I wouldn’t discount the state or armies just yet. The view that we’ll all descend (ascend ?) toward tribal affiliations over the state comes from a peculiarly western perspective, which is amazingly self-absorbed.

Not descend, not ascend, but simply change. We're not here to argue whether or not it is good or bad, rather if it will happen.

Once that is made clear, how in the world is it "amazingly self-absorbed"?

This is particularly true of the US, where decades of unprecedented prosperity (or most) appears to have enervated individuals’ allegiance to, and gratitude for, the security of central government.

Exactly. Good times paper over a government's faults.

It should stand to reason that the opposite is true, and economic hard times will decrease allegiance to a nation's government.

When that allegiance is weakened, what do citizens do? History suggests that they cling to their family, and extended family. Essentially, a tribal structure.

Blogger Student in Blue June 22, 2015 10:39 AM  

That's funny.

Ain't nothing funny about a demon cat.

Blogger Red Bane June 22, 2015 10:44 AM  

Whereas the Old Testament is just brimming with compassion towards those not lucky enough to be chosen. LOL.

The difference of course, and it is significant, is that the old testament laws and practices are now defunct, having been fulfilled or abrogated, depending on the practice or prophecy. Much of the old testament is historically descriptive. The Koran is almost entirely prescriptive and adhered to today. Big difference.

Anonymous Athor Pel June 22, 2015 10:54 AM  

"60. Tommy Hass June 22, 2015 10:30 AM
...
Whereas the Old Testament is just brimming with compassion towards those not lucky enough to be chosen. LOL. "



From the point of view of equality in the eyes of the law and the judge then yes, a pure Old Testament court would be just. The message not to mistreat strangers, orphans and widows and to judge fairly regardless of wealth or status is stated several times.

Unless you're trying to say that avowed enemies should be allowed access to your own courts, to which I have one thing to say, tough shit. Go home.

OpenID bc64a9f8-765e-11e3-8683-000bcdcb2996 June 22, 2015 10:56 AM  

"Industrialized agriculture is doomed to fail because you cannot mechanize Nature."
Ladies and gentlemen, may I present The Hover Dam?
How about "bottled water"?
Now that water sequestered from "the cycle" can be used to "make snow" for skiing....
And of course, Brawndo, and Soilant Green.
CaptDMO

OpenID bc64a9f8-765e-11e3-8683-000bcdcb2996 June 22, 2015 10:59 AM  

Ooops, I forgot HVAC, and Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice.

Anonymous BGS June 22, 2015 11:03 AM  

I have seen fewer things in my life funnier than Southerns dealing with more than a 1/4 inch of snow.

I was in TX when they got a little bit of freezing rain. Given how bad they drive in rain I wouldn't willingly go outside.

Turkey, Basnia, Azerbaijan, Albania, Indonesia, Syria

Turkey had that little genocide of Armenian Christians by moslems, and I knew a Syrian Christian family that moved to the US before welfare started, they are islamorealists.

For a zombie to arrive at my house, first he has to leave Ferguson with enough gas in his car to drive 2 hours,

Obama is planning on forcing all neighborhoods to have their fair share of zombies for the zombie nigapocalypse
http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/06/11/obama-moving-to-force-diversity-on-rich-neighborhoods-with-increased-affordable-housing-plan/

Anonymous The other robot June 22, 2015 11:03 AM  

They are already destroying themselves.

Blogger Tommy Hass June 22, 2015 11:04 AM  

"Unless you're trying to say that avowed enemies should be allowed access to your own courts, to which I have one thing to say, tough shit. Go home."

Why do you think they are "avowed" enemies, idiot? Engaging in genocide because your god ordered you to is a strong justification for enmity.

Also, what you said could be siad about the Muslims. You know all the talk about "unbelievers"? That is supposed to be a specific kind of unbeliever. Hint: Muslims didn't leave Mecca because the scenery was ugly.

Blogger Tommy Hass June 22, 2015 11:07 AM  

"Turkey had that little genocide of Armenian Christians by moslems, and I knew a Syrian Christian family that moved to the US before welfare started, they are islamorealists."

I am talking about modern Turkey, you donut puncher.

Also, the Armenians were stupid. Why would you betray your host population like that and not expect retaliation?

I mean, I know it was only a subset of Armenians that did this, but note that many people would engage in reprisals for that, not just Turks.

Blogger Emmanuel Mateo-Morales June 22, 2015 11:26 AM  

"Even Jesus did not know the time, which means you most certainly don't."

Wrong, you filthy Arian Heretic. Jesus said that it was the father's shot to make.

Blogger Red Bane June 22, 2015 11:29 AM  

I am talking about modern Turkey, you donut puncher.

Would that be the same Turkey that is giving aid and comfort to ISIS and actively repelling Syrian refugees back into the arms of these animals?

http://rt.com/news/267064-turkey-syria-refugees-border/

The Turks did not engage in mere reprisals. They acted like the Islamic animals that they are.

http://www.veteranstoday.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/11q_244.jpg

Blogger ScuzzaMan June 22, 2015 11:32 AM  

NorthernHamlet, if you're moving "in the States" then you're responding to symptoms and not to the problem.

Having said that, the problem is a rogue government bent on global hegemony, so ...

I talk to people about the inherent and unavoidable and irreparable incompetence of government, for this reason; as soon as any government is allowed to conclude that it is more competent than us, to run our lives, in any area, then it also feels compelled to immediately do so.

Freedom has always consisted, in the main, of those things the government admits it is incompetent manage "for" us.

Blogger Rabbi B June 22, 2015 11:35 AM  

"Jesus said that it was the father's shot to make."

Ahem . .

“But about that day or hour no one knows, not even the angels in heaven, nor the Son, but only the Father." (cf. Matthew 24).

Anonymous RedJack #22 June 22, 2015 11:39 AM  

Chris Mallory,

Very interesting! The people I know are on the growing side of California, so they may be (and probably are) pretty biased.

Anonymous Donn #0114 June 22, 2015 11:42 AM  

Go somewhere hot? I have seen all the documentaries and read the literature of the South. I know that it is a giant malarial, swamp/trackless wilderness full of insects, poisonous reptiles, crocodilians, giant constrictors, cannibalistic hillbillies, chemo and or radiation created mutants (both human and animal), flesh and/or brain eating diseases, forgotten towns with Potemkin village facades where they lure in unsuspecting travelers with the intention of either permanent forced labor or the aforementioned cannibalism, or worse ritual sacrifice of the type Lovecraft carefully documented, a plethora of haunted sites like graveyards, mines, swamps (again), plantations (naturally), caves, Indian mounds, stands of blighted pines, lonely stretches of black top or (more likely) dirt roads overhanging with Spanish moss, and forgotten lakes where the mutated crocodilians, humans, lizards, toads, frogs, snakehead fish, actual snakes, single cell parasites, giant mosquitoes full of malaria, dengue fever, and other horrific diseases fight it out in a darwinian free-for-all until only one enormous example of whatever creature dominates the lake is left and the rest of the mutants, snakes, etc lurk only at the corners.

I suspect you are only luring us to 'warmer climes' for the all you can eat long-pig barbeque.

Blogger kurt9 June 22, 2015 11:44 AM  

"Tribes", as you call them, may well replace the nation-state as we know it today. But industrial civilization is not about to take a hike. Who says manufacturing and technology requires currently existing nation-states? New technologies such as 3-D printing and bio-engineering is going to allow those "tribes" to make all of the things we take for granted today as well as stuff we can't imagine today. DIY bio-engineering and bio-medicine will be especially big. Continental nation-states decline in influence and the city-state comes back into vogue.

The idea of the nation-state going away and being replaced by "tribes" is depicted in the Neil Stephenson SF novel "Diamond Age". In fact, we talked about this massive decentralization trend in graduate business school in which one of my professors (a former marxist who had become a libertarian) called the "thousand state sovereignty" model.

If anything, the collapse of current forms of government will actually accelerate technological innovation, particularly in fields such as medicine and bio-engineering. Same for new forms of nuclear power such as Thorium-based MSR, LENR, and alternative fusion (e.g. Tri-alpha, Helion Energy, etc.). Excessive government regulation is the most significant factor limiting progress in these fields,

Blogger rycamor June 22, 2015 11:47 AM  

43. VFM bot #188 June 22, 2015 9:09 AM

"Go somewhere cold."

This is stupid. Go somewhere that food grows on its own from trees. You need water. You need shelter... but there are places in the world where food and water are plentiful and shelter is much less necessary. Going to some place cold is dumb.

A clean miss by Nate! Don't see that very often. When the balloon goes up, food gets scarce, there is no law, much less order, and other homo sapiens are the greatest danger...go someplace cold if you want to survive. The higher requirements for survival in cold-weather environments tend to keep the riff-raff out of the neighborhood.

There's a reason Western Civilization flowered in the cold-weather climes of Europe.


Well *after* it flowered in the fertile crescent and northern shores of the Mediterranean. Northern European civilization was a result of the spread of Christianity. It is testament to the philosophy of individual dedication and sacrifice for a greater whole that civilization did so well in northern Europe.

Anonymous BGS June 22, 2015 11:50 AM  

Tommy HassAlso, the Armenians were stupid. Why would you betray your host population like that and not expect retaliation?

The Armenians lived in their historic homeland even before the formation of the Ottoman Empire. Usually moslems deny the Armenian genocide. Can you please explain why the Armenians where genocided, but only give reasons other than that they didn't want to pay Jizya to support jihad against themselves or not convert.

OpenID artisanaltoadshall June 22, 2015 11:56 AM  

People forget how fast the civil war in the Balkans got going. The core of all three armies in the beginning were the criminal gangs. These were seasoned by officers and NCO's of the Yugoslavian army.

Question: Where will the shock troops come from in the Zombie Apocalypse?
Answer: The government has helpfully collected and concentrated them in prisons.

Question: What is the fastest growing prison gang?
Answer: Combat veterans from the sandbox. They know how to clear a house.

Question: How difficult is it to crack open a prison?
Answer: They were built to keep people in, not keep people out. Think about it.

Question: What is the best defense against waves of Zombie shock troops?
Answer: Tear up roads with a backhoe to channel them into kill zones, then AMBUSH.

Blogger Cataline Sergius June 22, 2015 12:04 PM  

@Tommy Hass

Way OT here. But...

There is a dish in Turkey that is a kind of Ravioli in a white sauce. I couldn't get enough of it while I was there.

Do you know the name of the dish I'm talking about?

Anonymous patrick kelly June 22, 2015 12:04 PM  

I would bet on the warmer Nate-Istan with tree born food a plenty....if he lets me in.....if not, there are more northern oasis' surrounded by harsher barriers to entry....but you have to get there before winter comes......so far dyin' at the Alamo here in ROT is more likely for me....

Anonymous patrick kelly June 22, 2015 12:09 PM  

Fear Not, a conversation on Mt. Athos, 1986

This was in the days of Chernobyl. People were upset by this and went by the dozens every day, particularly to Elder Porphyrios near Athens, asking: “What will happen? Will the Antichrist come and stamp us with 666″?

The Elder asked me: “Tell me, my child, what did Elder Aemilianos say about 666 and the Antichrist?”

I told him: “He told us in a gathering a few days ago to not worry. We should be interested in having a vibrant relationship with Christ and not give much attention to the Antichrist, because then he will become the center of our lives and not Christ.”

He told me: “For us Christians, when we experience Christ there is no Antichrist. . . .

When we have Christ inside us, can the Antichrist come? Can anything opposite this enter our souls? For this reason, my child, today we do not have Christ within us and because of this we worry about the Antichrist.
When Christ is within us, everything becomes Paradise. Christ is everything, my child, and the Opposer we should not fear; this you should always tell people.

And you should tell the people to not fear the Antichrist. We are children of Christ, we are children of the Church.”

Blogger Ginny Carlisle June 22, 2015 12:19 PM  

A simple answer to that coming food shortage?

Eat. Puppies.

After all, they are all so sad and mad and such, doing so would be doing them a favor.

It's compassionate evolution really.

:)

Anonymous Jack Amok June 22, 2015 12:22 PM  

It always cracks me up when leftists talk about Global Warming causing droughts. Morons. Global Warming would mean a wetter planet with more rain as water currently locked up in glaciers would be freed up for the water cycle. And when the double-down about crop failures - hell warmer weather means longer growing seasons for huge swaths of land.

Speaking of crops, do not rip up citrus groves to plant effing lettuce. Good God...

If anything, the collapse of current forms of government will actually accelerate technological innovation... Excessive government regulation is the most significant factor limiting progress in these fields,

Agreed 100%. Not to mention that current financial systems channel resources to relatively un-innovative large bureaucracies.

Blogger Rabbi B June 22, 2015 12:37 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Anonymous BGS June 22, 2015 12:46 PM  

but you have to get there before winter comes......so far dyin' at the Alamo here in ROT is more likely for me....

You can survive anywhere, there are prepper sites for urban & apartment preppers. There used to be an urban survival post nigapocalypse course taught in Philly because it is one of the few big cities that the surrounding state forces to allow handguns, I think it was taught by Frontsight. or OnPointTactical. If you could pass the zombie nigapocolypse Philly course you could survive anywhere. You can get lifestraw water filters for $20 & the Mormons have free info on food storage.

Blogger Akulkis June 22, 2015 12:49 PM  

"As to Jesus coming back. As with Isaac Newton I suggest God left a cypher, a cryptogram. And I think it has been cracked. I put money on it."

What part of "Nobody will know the day or the hour," did you fail to comprehend?

Blogger Tommy Hass June 22, 2015 1:03 PM  

@Cataline Sergius

"There is a dish in Turkey that is a kind of Ravioli in a white sauce. I couldn't get enough of it while I was there.

Do you know the name of the dish I'm talking about?"

:D :D :D

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Manti_(dumpling)

It's what I would eat for my last meal.

Blogger Tommy Hass June 22, 2015 1:09 PM  

" Can you please explain why the Armenians where genocided, but only give reasons other than that they didn't want to pay Jizya to support jihad against themselves or not convert."

During WWI. a bunch of them acted as a 5th column to help the Russians. They did that by slaughtering a bunch of women, kids and elderly while the men were at the front. This led to the government coming up with a plan for relocation. During that process, our soldiers were rather violent and negligient. This led to the deaths of a lot of Armenians.

Basically it was revenge for that 5th column activity. I think the govenrment tried to relocate them away from the front, but they killed a lot of em in the process.

That's how I know it.

Blogger Tommy Hass June 22, 2015 1:17 PM  

"Would that be the same Turkey that is giving aid and comfort to ISIS and actively repelling Syrian refugees back into the arms of these animals?

http://rt.com/news/267064-turkey-syria-refugees-border/"

Erdogan isn't Turkey. Furthermore, is it so hard to understand why Turks wouldn't want a bunch of refugees who don't even speak your language in your country? You should imitate, rather than criticize.

The reason why politicians see it fit to semi support ISIS is two-fold: 1) Erdogan seems to have a hate boner for Assad, for some reason. 2) ISIS are fighting Kurds in Syria/Iraq. As long as Kurd are busy fending off ISIS, they cannot proclaim an independant state there. That would be harmful for us, because that would encourage Kurds here to demand that in Turkey as well.

Bottomline: being ambivalent about savages is not equivalent to BEING those savages. Being a Christian in Turkey is pretty OK. Nothing that would justify wailings like "DO YOU KNOW HOW THEY TREAT NON MUSLIMS THERE!!!?!?!"

Anonymous Athor Pel June 22, 2015 1:18 PM  

"65. Student in Blue June 22, 2015 10:39 AM
That's funny.

Ain't nothing funny about a demon cat. "



I don't know how tongue in cheek you're being here, so...

For those that don't know these two japanese words,
Baka doesn't mean demon, it means stupid.
Neko means cat.

The demon cat's name is Stupidcat.

Which is appropriate for a Dread Lord that owns dogs.

Anonymous Alexander, #10 June 22, 2015 1:30 PM  

Yeah, I gotta say, it's a bit much to moan about Turks deciding to say 'fuck that' with regards to letting Syrians inside.

It's like last year when everyone was shocked and appalled, SHOCKED AND APPALLED when Turkey didn't give two fucks about ISIS bombing Syrian Kurds.

If Turkey goes around killing the Kurds in their own lands (those not involved in the practice of trying to kill Turks, at any rate), then that's a bad show. But nobody can reasonably expect Turkey to assist a group that has been saying since, oh - forever - that they want nothing to do with Turkey, when some part of that group is outside of Turkey's legal jurisdiction.

Say what one will about the Turks, but at least they seem to understand that their number one priority is the Turks.

One thing I do wonder though is if I were Turkey, I would be looking at how I could do (directly when I could get away with it, indirectly through 'nongovernmental' organizations when I couldn't) to export all the Kurds to Europe. Because at least with Turkish expats, Ankara will presumably take a dim view of a European revival that sees them either killed or used as leverage against Turkey.

Whereas for the Kurds, out of the homeland, out of mind.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis June 22, 2015 1:36 PM  

Indeed. The notion that the world is going to run out of food is laughable. Beyond laughable.

I concur as well, it is hard to take that claim seriously in light of the advances the US and the world has made in agriculture. Seriously, the only thing preventing large scale hydro and aeroponics is that it is currently cost prohibitive. That will change with time.

Blogger Red Bane June 22, 2015 1:37 PM  

The reason why politicians see it fit to semi support ISIS

Bit mealy mouthed this.

http://rudaw.net/english/middleeast/12102014

Being a Christian in Turkey is pretty OK

Pure fantasy on your part:

http://www.dw.com/en/christians-in-turkey-are-second-class-citizens/a-17619847

http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/5584/turkey-churches

Another picture from the thing that Turkey says never happened:

http://i.telegraph.co.uk/multimedia/archive/03178/466723495_3178901b.jpg

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis June 22, 2015 1:43 PM  

There's a reason Western Civilization flowered in the cold-weather climes of Europe

The Mediterranean can hardly be considered a cold weather clime.

Blogger Red Bane June 22, 2015 1:51 PM  

This led to the government coming up with a plan for relocation. During that process, our soldiers were rather violent and negligient. This led to the deaths of a lot of Armenians.

First-hand account by a Turkish army officer on the deportation of Armenians from Trebizond and Erzerum, December 26, 1916

' The women and children were attacked on their way by the ("Shotas") the armed bands organised by the Turkish Government who attacked them and seized a certain number. After plundering and committing the most dastardly outrages on the women and children they massacred them in cold blood. These attacks were a daily occurrence until every woman and child had been got rid of. The military escorts had strict orders not to interfere with the "Shotas".

The children that the Government had taken in charge were also deported and massacred.

The infants in the care of the American Consul of Trebizond were taken away with the pretext that they were going to be sent to Sivas where an asylum had been prepared for them. They were taken out to sea in little boats. At some distance out they were stabbed to death, put in sacks and thrown into the sea. A few days later some of their little bodies were washed up on the shore at Trebizond. '

http://www.armenian-genocide.org/br-12-26-16-text.html

Anonymous Hrw-500 June 22, 2015 2:08 PM  

Steve June 22, 2015 6:55 AM*
That's good news for mankind as a whole, and good news for the West because it'll work to reduce the "push" factor of mass migration. We need to stop the "pull" factor too, but every little helps.


It could be interesting to wonder if we might even a kind of "reverse" mass migration where descendants of current immigrants decided to go where their parents and grandparents once lived due to the increased quality of life kinda more or less similar to the recent "reverse Great Migration" where groups of African-Americans left the Northeast and Midwest to return South?

Could we see even a immigration wave of white immigrants from Europe to South Africa just like Tom Kratman once mentionned in his dystopian novel Caliphate?

Speaking of South Africa, let's see how it will go and to see if some of the prophecies of Siener Van Rensburg and Johanna Brant will come true. Mike Smith as well as some bloggers from the blog "Mike Smith's political commentary" talk sometimes about it.

Blogger Tommy Hass June 22, 2015 2:10 PM  

http://www.dw.com/en/christians-in-turkey-are-second-class-citizens/a-17619847

"You can't say they're being persecuted in Turkey"

Thank for playing. :D

Meh, the whole thing is a case of misunderstanding and secularism gone bad. You need to understand this whole thing as a Turkish version of Napoleon confiscating Church property. It is not an anti-Christian animus, but rather a lack of familiarity of combining secular government with tolerating the special status that Churches like the RCC or the Greek Orthodox Church have.

As for Christians ebing viewed with supicion....Duh? That's normal when you are an alien minority. If you guys had your way, muzzies would be treated similarly.

Blogger IM2L844 June 22, 2015 2:11 PM  

Seems like a good place to reiterate my prediction for the 2015 summer/fall event was for the final big scare...getting the discussion of a paradigm shift into the mainstream...the beginning of an extensive social conditioning phase prior to the final total collapse of the free market system that will initiate a complete overhaul of global governance and finance. 2033 still looks like a good spot for the big show.

Anonymous Alexander, #10 June 22, 2015 2:24 PM  

Black Knighting at The Independent or just life's little humor?

Article about Cambridge allowing men to wear dresses now and then half way down... break in the page to describe another Top Story.

Which is the societal collapse in 2040 one.

I laughed.

Blogger rycamor June 22, 2015 2:25 PM  

96. Cogitans Iuvenis June 22, 2015 1:36 PM

Indeed. The notion that the world is going to run out of food is laughable. Beyond laughable.

I concur as well, it is hard to take that claim seriously in light of the advances the US and the world has made in agriculture. Seriously, the only thing preventing large scale hydro and aeroponics is that it is currently cost prohibitive. That will change with time.


Even without high-tech advances. A family can grow enough to eat comfortably in less than 1/4 acre, along with a few chickens and rabbits. Ask our friend David the Good. Dude lives on a 1-acre plot, feeds a family of 7 kids, *and* runs an exotic tree nursery out of that place. As well as giving over a good portion of the plot to all sorts of zany gardening experiments.

You don't need hydroponics and aeroponics unless you want high-volume perfectly regularized food to sell commercially. Food which IMHO often has about 1/4 the taste of home-grown produce in well-composted soil.

I'm not discounting hydroponics. Everything that works is worth investigating. But our western high-tech perspective on this could do with a little humility. You can travel to places in the Caribbean where fruit and vegetables are so plentiful that a family with a little plot of land and a hut can live without hardly having to work. Literally, stuff just grows, often without you going to the trouble of planting it. There's a reason Caribbean proles have a reputation for laziness: starvation is not really a danger, unless they are herded by authoritarian governments into city projects and detention camps.

Blogger SirHamster (#201) June 22, 2015 2:28 PM  

@Athor Pel:

I don't know how tongue in cheek you're being here, so...

For those that don't know these two japanese words,
Baka doesn't mean demon, it means stupid.
Neko means cat.


It was bakeneko, not bakaneko.

Blogger Red Bane June 22, 2015 2:47 PM  

You need to understand this whole thing as a Turkish version of...

You need to understand that Turkey banned any discussion of this genocide in 2004. Better cease and desist before you are found out.

Blogger Red Bane June 22, 2015 2:50 PM  


As for Christians ebing viewed with supicion....Duh? That's normal when you are an alien minority. ..


Christians were there first. And you keep changing your tune.Very telling.

Blogger Gordon June 22, 2015 3:01 PM  

rycamor wrote, "There's a reason Caribbean proles have a reputation for laziness: starvation is not really a danger...."

I'm thinking of Eddie Grant singing, "can't get food for the kids." But then Eddie was a musician. As the old joke goes, what's the difference between a bass player and a pepperoni pizza?

A pepperoni pizza can feed a family of four.

Anonymous CarpeOro June 22, 2015 3:27 PM  

"As for Christians ebing viewed with supicion....Duh? That's normal when you are an alien minority. If you guys had your way, muzzies would be treated similarly."

Let's see,
Turkey - Armenians
Indonesia - East Timor
Albania - (hey, maybe it was just the Albanians encouraged (and supported) by Tito in Kosovo that were into pogroms of Christians [oh, and members of the Skanderbeg SS])

We'll just ignore all the other majority Muslim nations, because hey, they just follow the same pattern. Reading you loud and clear Tommy: friends until no longer necessary, then Christians can expect to die or be persecuted. Your statement above speaks volumes in projection.

Blogger Cogitans Iuvenis June 22, 2015 4:29 PM  

You don't need hydroponics and aeroponics unless you want high-volume perfectly regularized food to sell commercially. Food which IMHO often has about 1/4 the taste of home-grown produce in well-composted soil.

I'm not discounting hydroponics. Everything that works is worth investigating. But our western high-tech perspective on this could do with a little humility. You can travel to places in the Caribbean where fruit and vegetables are so plentiful that a family with a little plot of land and a hut can live without hardly having to work. Literally, stuff just grows, often without you going to the trouble of planting it. There's a reason Caribbean proles have a reputation for laziness: starvation is not really a danger, unless they are herded by authoritarian governments into city projects and detention camps.


Not disagreeing, more saying that even in the advent of human population outstripping traditional agricultural means, we still would be able to feed everyone. The Malthusian train of thought always acts like we've exhausted all our technological options, when the reality is that we haven't even really applied the most radical and revolutionary.

Blogger rycamor June 22, 2015 5:20 PM  

Cogitans, agreed totally. There is in insane amount of unused potential in every direction. A few weeks ago I calculated how many people I could feed from my 1-acre field in Florida if I planted it with the right combination of yams ("name" yams) and a few cover crops. Turns out it could theoretically support around 100 people full-time, and that's without applying any odd tweaks, just a continual supply of leaf mulch (plentiful in my area) and livestock manure.

When you think about how many lawns are just sitting there doing nothing, there's incredible potential just from people making their own choices as economic times change. Then there's the huge array of technological options, like vertical container farming, hydroponics, biochar and vermiculture composting systems, combining mushrooms and other fungus growth with gardens... I've spent the past couple years just casually researching some of the findings coming out and there is stupendous potential.

Blogger Student in Blue June 22, 2015 5:26 PM  

@Athor Pel
I don't know how tongue in cheek you're being here, so...

I was being kind of tongue in cheek, but as SirHamster said already, it was bakeneko ("化け猫") rather than bakaneko ("馬鹿猫").

Blogger Joe Keenan June 22, 2015 5:43 PM  

I've been hearing this fallacious Club of Rome crap for over 40 years now. These predictions have never panned out. What problems we have with food production is man made: for example, the government is creating the "drought" in California via legislative fiat, see: http://naturalresources.house.gov/issues/issue/?IssueID=5921

See also, the Simon/Ehrlich wager, which illustrates the fallacy of projecting todays trends into the future.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Simon%E2%80%93Ehrlich_wager

Blogger rycamor June 22, 2015 5:51 PM  

Joe Keenan, and others complaining about "Malthusianism" and such: the scientists themselves made the point that there model is NOT predictive. It is just presented as a theoretical likelihood if there is no further change. Everyone with half a brain* knows you can't predict stuff like this, because people do happen to alter behaviour of their own accord, whether we like it or not, and there are always other factors not taken into account.

*Of course, that leaves out politicians and left-wing hand-wringers, obviously,

Blogger Bard June 22, 2015 6:53 PM  

Does anyone want to opine on whether Jesus now knows the date and hour since his ascension?

Blogger Bard June 22, 2015 7:02 PM  

He gave his best friend John a stunning amount of info in the the revelation without waiting too long.

Blogger Danby June 22, 2015 7:06 PM  

@Bard,
What possible use would such a discussion be? In the end, we all wind up at Live as if He will return tomorrow, but prepare for you future in any case." jesus may know the date and hour, but we don't. Any non-divine person who claims to know, or to have "decoded", the correct date and time, well, they've all failed spectacularly, haven't they, from the recent 2012 crap to the Millerites to the Gnostics?

Blogger Bard June 22, 2015 7:19 PM  

@ Danby,
I don't disagree. Just something I think about. He did admonish us to interpret the signs and seasons soberly, not with fear mongering.

Blogger Bard June 22, 2015 7:23 PM  

But maybe he didn't know until he went to heaven and then promptly gave us more info. So the no one knows line might be a little misleading in light of the revelation (latest info from heaven) and I think it needs to be taken into account. Not for date setting per se, but as a more accurate portrayal of the info we actually were given.

Anonymous BGS June 22, 2015 7:31 PM  

There's a reason Caribbean proles have a reputation for laziness: starvation, unless they have Asians and whites bring medicine to them. Yea watching a documentary about islands that had an old woman on oxygen and a walker talking about how as a kid she could just go eat fruit from trees but cant see it now, only to not realize there where no old women on oxygen using walkers. That's R style evolution.

Red Bane First-hand account by a Turkish army officer on the deportation of Armenians from Trebizond and Erzerum, December 26, 1916

I might have to support Tommy on this one and say the moslems raping infidel children, which is pretty much a given everywhere they go, is not as bad as genociding them. I don't like that moslems gang raped 1700+ little white girls in Rotherham with cops afraid to do anything in fear of being called racist., but it would be worse if they killed them all. It would be nice to have a link to Armenians being a 5th coulomb in their ancestral lands.

Anonymous PhillipGeorge©2015 June 22, 2015 8:04 PM  

Bard, a lot of scripture is 'double edged' as in has multiple roles. One outworking is that the feast of trumpets is based on the agricultural calendar sighting of the new moon. ie. you have to get to the right year and month before you can know. Two, Day and Hour has a dual outworking as in 'day of the Lord' plus a bit, an hour added on. This means there is a parallel to Noah being in the Ark a bit over a year.
Three, the day of atonement is actually a 25 hour celebration, which mirrors Jesus' words. Four, about that day and hour, little or nothing is known much beyond John's Revelation Vision because, simply because, the Holy Spirit will not be on earth in poured out measure to either constrain, restrict, convict, or direct. The Bride is Gone and the Holy Spirit with her. Five, the Day of the Lord refers to both a thousand year rest and a Year of Judgement, like Noah's day.
Six, Daniels vision was sealed until the end. Jesus, as the One Who takes the scroll and opens them or it at the appointed time, now knows. Did, He know a thousand years ago? Questions about what it's like outside of time as we know it may not even be valid questions at all. So I'm balking at the most direct answer. I suggest He knows, now, is at a very threshold of coming.

Renee Moses' Rapture Puzzle on youtube and PDF makes some very good exegesis tying in a lot of scripture. I believe her observations about "the days cut short", and the lord "delayed" and "no more delay" are brilliant. Isaac Newton, it appears, saw one aspect in advance as well: the week and sixty two" aspect as having a double outworking in history.

Get ready.

Anonymous PhillipGeorge©2015 June 22, 2015 8:14 PM  

sorry I should quote it in full:
So you are to know and discern that from the issuing of a decree to restore and rebuild Jerusalem until Messiah the Prince there will be seven weeks and sixty-two weeks; it will be built again, with plaza and moat, even in times of distress. (NASB) Dan. 9:25

Blogger Bard June 22, 2015 8:35 PM  

@Phillip,
I wasn't going to get into the feast of trumpets, but I am pleased you know about that. My point was simply he is not coming tomorrow. The book of revelation made that clear. A lot of things have to happen first and we only know that because he told John after his resurrection. He did not reveal the mark of the beast system while on Earth. I don't like the phrase "live like he is coming tomorrow". Live like he is not coming in our lifetime, fear free. Further his kingdom because it is at hand NOW. When the trumpets blow, then look up. For now there is work to be done.

Blogger Bard June 22, 2015 8:40 PM  

I will read those studies you recommended.

Blogger Bard June 22, 2015 8:47 PM  

But I couldn't disagree more with the holy spirit being removed during the tribulation. 144K special will be marked for service (protection?) although that number could be symbolic but the act will be real. Most of us will die, many will be captured, and some will flee. Now won't that be a hoot! The rapture is the second coming. Once here, he is not leaving again. We will not face the wrath of God, but the wrath of evil men and the adversary we will endure full measure.

Blogger JaimeInTexas June 22, 2015 8:53 PM  

I di not know greek but the way I understand what Jesus said is: look, it is not for you or anybody else to know; live and do as I told you until.

Blogger Bard June 22, 2015 9:00 PM  

Yep. But I hate the left behind rapture theory that teaches believers to not prepare because you are not going to be here for any of it. Talk about the love of many growing cold. How about the holy shit moment when your realize that you should already be gone. Can I borrow some of that oil?

Blogger Bard June 22, 2015 9:17 PM  

But don't worry, I have 12% of a plan.

Anonymous PhillipGeorge©2015 June 22, 2015 11:00 PM  

Bard

So you are to know and discern

that sounds like a commandment!
up until a few months ago my thinking about "what had to happen" was badly mistaken, I believe:-
Temple rebuilt on the temple mount,, an international peace deal struck, the anti christ revealed, the mark of the beast/ cashless economy introduced, one world government established. There is a shadow and type in all these things, but I was wrong.

Jesus' second coming is in two stages, once for the bride, then wrath upon the nations, then once again with the bride and all the tribulation saints. Not only are we in the seven years right now, we are well beyond midway.

I fully comprehend how people believe there is much left to happen. Thing is, once again, things took place without very many people noticing. The abomination that causes desolation was subtle, oblique, a smallish thing.

Blogger Bard June 22, 2015 11:28 PM  

Me too Phillip. But I am telling you, I once was blinded exactly as you are. There is one reaping, one harvest, one gathering, one return, and one resurrection of the righteous dead /transformation of the righteous living that occurs at the the last trumpet blast of the voice of the archangel and return of Christ and then judgement. You will see an antichrist and it will have to do with a Mahdi/islamic lie. They are in the process of removing cash and it will be terrible for us. Resistance is easier said than done. The great deception is taking place. I am emphatically warning you with no wiggle room that you are wrong. You did not come up with those theories on your own. You read them from someone else and you are wrong. I am not insulting you. I am giving you a warning. You are wrong. I will not even allow the "well we can't both be right so we will see". You are wrong and it will be a terrible, terrible mistake. Please reconsider.

Blogger Bard June 22, 2015 11:40 PM  

I have to go to bed, early morning. Don't be offended.

Anonymous PhillipGeorge©2015 June 23, 2015 12:05 AM  

Bard, On a daily basis I attempt to self refute/ come at it from every angle/ use every available midrash. The fact you so vehemently cling to your paradigm for the fulfillment is itself, a sign. Jehovah's Witnesses are likewise convinced of their doctrine. Everyone reaps something. And you have above said:

"How about the holy shit moment when your realize that you should already be gone. Can I borrow some of that oil?"

When I'm changed and meet Him in the air is not the day He sets foot on the Mount of Olives.
When he comes things will be "business as usual, buying, selling, marrying, given in marriage, as with Lot, as with Noah, both taken out of their normality and put into a refuge place/ Enoch was gone and Abraham was up above ". - all four are aspects of the separation prior judgement prior to rebuilding/ repopulation.

Anonymous FrankNorman June 23, 2015 8:08 AM  

110. CarpeOro June 22, 2015 3:27 PM

"As for Christians ebing viewed with supicion....Duh? That's normal when you are an alien minority. If you guys had your way, muzzies would be treated similarly."

Let's see,
Turkey - Armenians
Indonesia - East Timor
Albania - (hey, maybe it was just the Albanians encouraged (and supported) by Tito in Kosovo that were into pogroms of Christians [oh, and members of the Skanderbeg SS])

We'll just ignore all the other majority Muslim nations, because hey, they just follow the same pattern. Reading you loud and clear Tommy: friends until no longer necessary, then Christians can expect to die or be persecuted. Your statement above speaks volumes in projection.


As with the Left, so with the Moslems?

From an earlier thread:

Among the clearest proofs that the Left are insane and cannot be dealt with by rational, dialectical means ... is their tendency to implicitly admit that everything their most vehement critics say about them is right, without realizing that they are in fact making a confession.

Anonymous Athor Pel June 23, 2015 9:01 AM  

"113. Student in Blue June 22, 2015 5:26 PM
@Athor Pel
I don't know how tongue in cheek you're being here, so...

I was being kind of tongue in cheek, but as SirHamster said already, it was bakeneko ("化け猫") rather than bakaneko ("馬鹿猫")."



I may not be able to read but baka is funnier than bake.

Post a Comment

Rules of the blog
Please do not comment as "Anonymous". Comments by "Anonymous" will be spammed.

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts