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Wednesday, August 12, 2015

Presidential predictions

I am entirely out of the business of predicting American election results, but the International Lord of Hate is entirely willing to stalk where the Supreme Dark Lord is disinclined to tread:
My prediction is that the republican nominee will be Ted Cruz. The democrat nominee will be Hillary Clinton.  At this early point in the campaigns I got Dole, Bush, and Romney right. McCain surprised me, but I think I was just blinded by my dislike for him. I predicted Obama as soon as he got done with that first original DNC speech, and sadly got that one right. Though I was surprised how fast he usurped the Clinton machine.

Here is my reasoning. First, the democrat side is really easy to predict. You’ve got one batty old socialist and a slightly battier old socialist. Though I’ve been told that Hillary Clinton isn’t actually a socialist because the way she loves taking bribes is very capitalistic. Good point.

Bernie is nuts, but he’s honest. He skips right over all the typical democrat feel good, heart string tugging reasons why they think the government should control everything, and gets right to the government controlling everything. He is economically illiterate. Those Occupy Democrat memes going around Facebook where they are quoting Bernie fucking up some basic economic principle are literally painful. Every time you share one of those, an accountant dies.

The only reason Bernie is actually polling surprisingly decently is because many democrats sense just how lackluster Hillary is. However, Hillary is still going to get the nomination. Because as much as democrats like to think that they’re all about tolerance, there is something incredibly emasculating about watching your candidate get chased off the podium of his own rally. There’s a reason the Black Lives Matter protestors haven’t invaded Hillary’s space, because we all suspect she’d shriek “GUARDS! SEIZE THEM!” super villain style, and then have them devoured by her nanotech enhanced attack weasels.

Hillary may be a liar and a cheat, and she’d sell your children’s organs to Russian mobsters to make five bucks, but at least she’s not a total chicken shit. So, barring the highly unlikely event that Hillary gets arrested by the FBI for one of her multitude of scandals between now and the primaries, Hillary is it.

On the GOP side it gets really hard to predict just because there are a slew of candidates. Right now I see it going Cruz, with an outside chance of Rubio or Walker. Yes, I know that isn’t what the polls say right now, but this is how I see it playing out.

Trump is a stunt candidate. He’s sitting around twenty percent, lots of people are flipping out about it, and the media is loving that. But the rest of the GOP can’t stand him. As we head into the primaries we always do this thing, where somebody will pop up, the voters will say Oooooh New and Shiny, they’ll surge, and then once people have a chance to actually look at what they’ve really done, they come back down.
I can neither pretend to know nor care. But for those who do, that's what the Correiakin prognosticates. Discuss amongst yourselves.

Labels:

336 Comments:

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Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 12:05 PM  

Stormtrumpers is the best neologism this year.

Blogger Wyndie August 12, 2015 12:10 PM  

All I can say is: I don't care.

Anonymous Kevin August 12, 2015 12:13 PM  

Republicans have no chance based on demographics and ideology

Blogger Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus August 12, 2015 12:14 PM  

Non-linear dynamics suggest that 2016 will be a "bifurcation year" in American history, meaning a huge dislocation to our sociopolitical system will take place.

Best case scenario - Republican Party collapses, is replaced by a new party without the GOP-E at its helm.

Worst case scenario - A bloody civil war breaks out.

Blogger Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus August 12, 2015 12:15 PM  

demographics

People keep using this word. Yet I do not think they know what it means.

Blogger D. Lane (#0067) August 12, 2015 12:17 PM  

Republicans who can win, if nominated:

None of them, save Bush and Trump

Anonymous zen0 August 12, 2015 12:17 PM  

The hard core Trump fans remind me a lot of the old hard core Ron Paul fans.

- International Lord of Hate

Blogger Joshua Dyal August 12, 2015 12:18 PM  

@4. I'm at the point where I'm not sure that's the worst case scenario. I can imagine several that are worse.

Blogger Rabbi B August 12, 2015 12:19 PM  

There's going to be an election?

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 12:20 PM  

Republicans who can win, if nominated:

None of them, save Bush and Trump


Rand polls better than both against Hillary in a lot of states.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 12:21 PM  

There's going to be an election?

Not just any election.

THE MOST IMPORTANTEST ELECTION EVAR!!!

Blogger James Dixon August 12, 2015 12:22 PM  

> There's going to be an election?

Sometime next year, I've been told. I'll probably go make my token vote for some third party candidate (unless Larry is right and Cruz does get the nomination, he has enough good points I'll think about voting for him) and write my wife in for the House (there's almost never a third party candidate for the House).

Blogger James Dixon August 12, 2015 12:23 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus August 12, 2015 12:24 PM  

THE MOST IMPORTANTEST ELECTION EVAR!!!

Exactly right! And that's why I'm here today to ask you all to vote for Jeb Bush in the Republican primary and in the general election. With Jeb, we can win one for the Gipper!

/do I need it?

Blogger Jourdan August 12, 2015 12:24 PM  

I completely agree the discussion is irrelevant. The Republicans cannot win at the national level ever again, and this fact on the ground will only get worse from them as Texas goes solid blue over the next 10-15 years.

All I can say is: the worse, the better. We so deserve another Bush or Clinton.

Blogger James Dixon August 12, 2015 12:24 PM  

> None of them, save Bush and Trump

Bush can't win. If he gets the nomination I expect Hillary to take at least 48 states.

Blogger Jourdan August 12, 2015 12:26 PM  

THE MOST IMPRORTANTEST ELECTION EVAR!!!

Yes! And at the very least, think of the Supreme Court nominees! Because as Chief Justice Roberts has demonstrated, clearly, having a Republican President is the only way to ensure good justices get appointed........for the Gippper!!! It's Mourning in America!

Blogger Harsh August 12, 2015 12:29 PM  

The black knight move is to get Biden elected.

Anonymous hausfrau August 12, 2015 12:29 PM  

What about Martin O'Malley against Clinton or Sanders? Haven't heard much about him. Seems like anyone that isn't bat shit crazy economically ignorant like Sanders or scandal ridden like Clinton should have a chance in the democrat primary, not that I follow their candidates all that much.

Blogger Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus August 12, 2015 12:30 PM  

as Texas goes solid blue over the next 10-15 years

There's no evidence for any sort of trend to suggest that will happen.

Anonymous RedJack #22 August 12, 2015 12:31 PM  

@4 I have been saying we have a Crassus and a more mad Gracchi running for the nomination. Both are jumping on issue that the elite would rather not talk about, and both Trump and Sanders are pushing against the narrative.

Not sure how it will play out, but this is very entertaining. And yes, we are heading to the end of democracy, having killed the Republic a long time ago

Blogger Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus August 12, 2015 12:31 PM  

Seems like anyone that isn't bat shit crazy economically ignorant like Sanders or scandal ridden like Clinton should have a chance in the democrat primary

How so? Pretty much all Democrats are some combination of bat sh*t crazy, economically ignorant, or scandal ridden. Don't see how any of these are deal-breakers for them.

Anonymous Eric Ashley August 12, 2015 12:32 PM  

Bush is even less than Romney. He's not winning. He could get the nom, but that would be proof of either insanity among the RNC, or a desire to make people like me cry.

On the Dem side, neither. Some newbie, sort of, gets the nom. Both are too flawed, and some other, less recently examined idiot will get the nom.

Then if the RNC does as their heart desires, and displays their considerable backbone, and messes over people like me, then the Dems win.

Could Trump win? Yes. Putting Palin next to him would help, probably. He needs to kick the RNC in the head repeatedly, and be seen doing so. Show up at a RNC event, and on camera ask a reporter 'who's that chump?' while pointing at McConnell would help.

Is 'Stormtrumper' cool? Yes. It may have been meant as an insult, but heck, the VFM know how fun wearing the insults of your enemies is.

Anonymous RedJack #22 August 12, 2015 12:33 PM  

@20 Texas is going back to Tejas soon. The massive influx of Hispanics will change the voting trends once they realize that you don't have to be a citizen to vote.

Now, the older Mexican families in Texas are not that way, but their children are being pulled along with the trend.

Blogger David-093 August 12, 2015 12:36 PM  

@Josh

"Stormtrumpers is the best neologism this year."

That is fucking awesome.

@zen0

"The hard core Trump fans remind me a lot of the old hard core Ron Paul fans."

I'll take that as a compliment, considering I voted for Paul and might vote for Trump if he gets the nomination.

Blogger Dexter August 12, 2015 12:39 PM  

He is wrong. Cruz has no chance.

It is either Trump or Jeb.

If Trump bails, then Jeb backed by the GOP establishment machine will easily crush the remaining non-entities.

And then Jeb will lose to Hillary.

Blogger Floyd Looney August 12, 2015 12:40 PM  

I am supporting Ted. A real conservative.

Trump is the most phony candidate I have seen in a long time. In 2009 he was saying Obama had saved the economy.

Blogger D. Lane (#0067) August 12, 2015 12:40 PM  

Rand polls better than both against Hillary in a lot of states.

Doesn't matter right now. If he gets the nomination, the media will throw analyst after analyst at his policies, he'll respond with argument after argument, impressing the libertarians and some conservatives, and boring everyone else into changing the channel.

Meanwhile, Trump will do his thing as an independent, and whoever gets the Dem nomination will go on a promise spree.

Cruz and the other "principled" candidates have the same problem.


Bush can't win.

Bush can win if he's up against Hillary and Trump isn't a factor. Not because Bush is any good, but because, if given the choice between Hillary and Bush on a ballot, I doubt most voters are masochistic enough to pull one for what they all know to be the greater and most unliked evil. Against anyone else... he's DOA.

Blogger Dexter August 12, 2015 12:41 PM  

He says Jeb will not get the nomination because he is boring, lame, and non-conservative.

To which I respond, George HW Bush, Bob Dole, George W Bush, John McCain, and Mitt Romney.

Anonymous Jerome Horowitz August 12, 2015 12:41 PM  

My money is on the Koch Brothers..
...
..
..
..
& Walker

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 12:42 PM  

Y'all retards moaning that REPUBLICANS CAN NEVER WIN EVER AGAIN FOREVER need to go back and look at the Republican share of white votes and white voter turnout.

Blogger dc.sunsets August 12, 2015 12:43 PM  

All political calculus is useless if Mr. Market goes cliff-diving during the next 12 months.

Blogger JartStar August 12, 2015 12:43 PM  

The big money is going to Jeb so he should get the nomination. Hillary isn't likable like Bill was, but she probably wins due to demographics.

Blogger dc.sunsets August 12, 2015 12:45 PM  

I suppose I second Josh:

http://therightstuff.biz/content/images/2015/07/enhanced-buzz-wide-1035-1352488120-4.jpg

The trend is in place, and any sort of market dislocation will only serve to put rocket motors on it.

Blogger David-093 August 12, 2015 12:46 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger David-093 August 12, 2015 12:46 PM  

Interesting how everyone immediately thinks Jabe! and Grandma are the two nominees, despite the election being over a year away. The establishment really does their job well.

Blogger Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus August 12, 2015 12:47 PM  

@24 - "Texas is going back to Tejas soon. The massive influx of Hispanics will change the voting trends once they realize that you don't have to be a citizen to vote."

Again, that may be your opinion, but it has no basis in fact. In fact, the "Red" share of Texas' vote since 1992 has remained pretty flat.

Illegal immigration has been going on for a lot longer than since Obama stole into office, and I don't see anything to suggest that Texas is suddenly going to start allowing IIs tovote.

Blogger JartStar August 12, 2015 12:47 PM  

It will be interesting to see if the demographic threshold has been crossed yet, and Hillary vs. Jeb is a good match up to test this, but Hillary vs. Walker would be even better due to to Jeb's tie to Latin America.

Blogger Salt August 12, 2015 12:47 PM  

Heads they win, tails we lose.

OpenID vfm360 August 12, 2015 12:49 PM  

It is going to be Bush-Clinton. That is what the establishment wants because they win either way. Either way the bankers win. There can be no other.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 12:50 PM  

Again, that may be your opinion, but it has no basis in fact. In fact, the "Red" share of Texas' vote since 1992 has remained pretty flat.

Fun fact: increased diversity increases the Republican share of white voters.

Anonymous Huckleberry August 12, 2015 12:51 PM  

I think Hillary gets indicted.
The FBI and the DOJ work for the same man Biden does.
Biden's dying son's deathbed wish (as the story is is told) is for Biden to become President-Sheriff.
Get your popcorn ready.

Blogger Floyd Looney August 12, 2015 12:52 PM  

Trump is not conservative. Trump is not consistent on anything. Trump is thin-skinned, he reacts to every perceived slight with insults like a 12-year. This guy needs to be kept as far from "the button" as possible. The man praised the bailouts and TARP (meaning he insulted and denigrated those opposed), he said Obama saved the economy, he proudly voted for Hillary for Senate. His favorite President and golfing pal is Bill Clinton. The celebutard dumped his 2nd wife for a porn star (you think the culture is messed up now, wait until a porn star as first lady is the role model for little girls). The man admits he doesn't ask God for forgiveness, as a Christian this tells me he thinks he is his own God.

In all he might be the epitome of "rich white trash".

As a Christian conservative, I really cannot think of one good reason to vote for Trump.

I'll vote for Ted Cruz and if he doesn't win the nomination, I will happily stay home on election day and start digging a bunker.

Anonymous Fred Backer August 12, 2015 12:55 PM  

Mr. Day, I believe you know me, Fred Backer. You're the Italian mafioso that single handedly destroyed Herman "Cain Train" Cain's campaign! Go sip some more Italian wine. We had a chance in 2012 and you ruined it! No $9.99 pizza for you!

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 12:58 PM  

Mr. Day, I believe you know me, Fred Backer. You're the Italian mafioso that single handedly destroyed Herman "Cain Train" Cain's campaign! Go sip some more Italian wine. We had a chance in 2012 and you ruined it! No $9.99 pizza for you!

BAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Blogger David-093 August 12, 2015 12:58 PM  

"As a Christian conservative, I really cannot think of one good reason to vote for Trump. "

The only reason to support him is that he is the only one who might actually be able to resist the influence of TPTB and stop illegal immigration. All the others are either not alphas and have no backbone, or are completely beholden to these people anyway. Trump may be different, which is better than nothing.

Blogger Joshua Dyal August 12, 2015 12:58 PM  

As a Christian conservative, I really cannot think of one good reason to vote for Trump.

Because, as Ann Coulter keeps telling us, if we keep losing on immigration, we lose on everything else. He's got the strongest stance on immigration right now, and his popularity is a mandate for it.

Any other BS policy pushed through can be fixed. The window of opportunity on a non-violent solution to immigration is closing fast.

Granted; it's only one reason. But it's a good one.

I'll vote for Ted Cruz and if he doesn't win the nomination, I will happily stay home on election day and start digging a bunker.

That's what I'd prefer to do, but Cruz needs to learn some style points from Trump quick. He doesn't have enough charisma to really fire up the base.

He could also stand to lose his ridiculous neoconservative foreign policy. Who cares what Iran or Russia is doing when Mexico has sent 25% of its population across the border to plunder the American people? Mexico is our foreign policy foe. Russia and Iran; I couldn't care less what they do, honestly. There are no compelling American interests that they threaten.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 12:58 PM  

In all he might be the epitome of "rich white trash".

I have said before, Trump is a poor person's idea of a rich person.

Anonymous Donn #0114 August 12, 2015 12:59 PM  

I don't know about anyone else and your experience might be different because I live in a small town and knew the canvassers but did anyone notice anything odd about the last census.

First they sent a convicted felon to my house. One I had arrested. She started asking questions and I asked her if felons were allowed to canvas. She then recognized me and kind of fled. Then her supervisor came and said I refused to answer her questions. I told him she was a felon I arrested and wouldn't answer felons questions.

He hemmed and hawed said he wasn't a felon and I told him to get his supervisor because I had no idea whether he was a felon or not seeing as they had already hired at least one. Finally a group of three of them came to my door. I asked them how they were doing in the illegal immigrant neighborhood? Lots of retries there? Lots of loud knocking and insisting people answer personal questions? This bunch tried to redirect but I kept hammering at their felon canvassers and inept questioning of a whole passel of known gang members less than a mile from my house and they eventually left.

Now I know the population of my town is half illegal alien. The population officially changed a de minimus amount but I know there are more illegals here than the entire official population of the town. What happens when amnesty lets these mostly gang member, mostly non-English speaking, mostly Guatemalans who don't speak Spanish vote? Then what will my town look like? Will they turn my town officially into Chiapas?

And why didn't they collect the info on the gang members even though it would be difficult? Most of them have drivers licenses and at least some of them check the ''I am a citizen and can vote" box. You know they are going to be life long democrats, they already suck at the teat like they were born here. Are we the other side of moving the blacks and hispanics out of the cities using section 8 vouchers? Keep the hispanics out of the big cities to begin with and they don't have to worry?

They are working to dilute the red counties. They've diluted my town real good.

Blogger Russell (106) August 12, 2015 12:59 PM  

Quick, rearrange the chairs on the deck! That'll stop the Titanic from sinking.

Blogger jdwalker August 12, 2015 1:00 PM  

I could see it playing out according to Correia's prediction. There may be enough fear of Trump running as a third party candidate that the GOP will rally behind Cruz or Walker, who Trump just might endorse since they've been the least willing to trash Trump and most willing to express similar positions on immigration that has been Trump's spotlighted position. I also don't see Rubio having any shot though.

Blogger pyrrhus August 12, 2015 1:00 PM  

Both parties are blowing up, with Trump and Sanders as the levers...the public anger at the entire DC establishment is palpable...

Anonymous FP August 12, 2015 1:00 PM  

"Y'all retards moaning that REPUBLICANS CAN NEVER WIN EVER AGAIN FOREVER need to go back and look at the Republican share of white votes and white voter turnout."

True, so long as you can convince enough white voters to wake up. I think you have to let the boomers die off before that happens.

Anonymous Donn #0114 August 12, 2015 1:03 PM  

Sorry, the point to that is my state is already deep blue due to Soro's meddling and rigging our elections. It doesn't matter who I vote for. His secretary of state plan worked flawlessly here. We just keep counting until the democrat wins. Doesn't matter how many times you need to do it or how many ballot boxes you need to find stuffed in old cabinets or the back of police cruisers.

Blogger David-093 August 12, 2015 1:03 PM  

"He doesn't have enough charisma to really fire up the base."

He's got grassroots popularity, which is good. He and Trump have been very friendly to each other, so I think Cruz is hoping for a VP slot if he doesn't the nom.

Blogger Shimshon August 12, 2015 1:04 PM  

Given this EPJ post, I am more skeptical about Trump's intentions.

Blogger LP 999/Eliza August 12, 2015 1:04 PM  

What policies has Trump mentioned? I'll have to research such. Rand Paul has policies.

The Crimson Knight holds we are handed Hillary with a mix of past noms or nominees mixed in to the situation room. Total banker henhouses, the post americants cannot give up their entitlements and we cannot stop spending so its not gonna be zen in the de end to spend like keynesians.

Oh well, here are to like months and months of this nonsense, what torture.

Blogger scipioafricanus August 12, 2015 1:06 PM  

Is that "Idle Hitler" fellow on the ballot? He certainly has my vote!

Anonymous LES August 12, 2015 1:08 PM  

I don't agree with him on the social issues, but I'd vote for Jim Webb over all the others.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 1:09 PM  

What policies has Trump mentioned? I'll have to research such. Rand Paul has policies.

Trump's plan:

Shit. I know shit's bad right now, with all that starving bullshit, and the dust storms, and we are running out of french fries and burrito coverings. But I got a solution.

Now I understand everyone's shit's emotional right now. But I've got a 3 point plan that's going to fix EVERYTHING

Number 1: We've got this guy Donald J Trump. Number 2: He's got a higher IQ than ANY MAN ALIVE. and Number 3: He's going to fix EVERYTHING.

Blogger David-093 August 12, 2015 1:10 PM  

Trump's tax policies he talks about in his book are pretty good, I think the highest tax rate he talks about is 10% for those who make a million or more, while lower and middle class would pay between 1 and 5%.

Truthfully, the income tax should be completely abolished, but if he manages to cut it down I'll take that too.

And he did mention in the debate about allowing interstate competition between the insurance companies, which, again, is something that Rand Paul should seized upon instead of trying to take a cheap shot by saying he was for single-payer.

Yes, we all heard what he said before, Trump wasn't trying to hide it. Rand Paul could have out-shined him by taking it a step further...but he didn't.

Trump's support is primarily because he speaks brashly and boldly, with zero-fucks-given. He's middle tier at best as far as policies go, but his unapologetic attitude is impressive and unlike the other mealy-mouthed career politicians who absolutely refuse to be anything other than dull, uninspiring suits.

Anonymous patrick kelly August 12, 2015 1:12 PM  

Well crap.....if Cruz is on the ticket I would be tempted to hold my nose at his empire support and vote for him instead of my usual Libertarian protest vote......he's got ballz........so far.....

Anonymous patrick kelly August 12, 2015 1:14 PM  

And a Sanders/Trump 3rd party run could replace my Cthulhu/Loki bumper sticker......

Anonymous Feh August 12, 2015 1:15 PM  

Interesting how everyone immediately thinks Jabe! and Grandma are the two nominees, despite the election being over a year away. The establishment really does their job well.

Putting their creatures in office by running Puppet A against Puppet B is about the only thing they do well.

But that is why it is "an establishment" -- its prime directive is to perpetuate itself, and all other concerns be damned.

Blogger August August 12, 2015 1:16 PM  

I think the script writers wanted Scott Walker to come in and take over as the 'tough' candidate, since Jeb is weaker than Budweiser.
It will be interesting to see how far Trump goes. What is going to stop him. Assassination? He can pull Democrat voters, especially if the harpy gets the democrat nomination. Either harpy.

But my flippant remarks are not entirely in jest. The more it looks like Trump is going to win, the more likely they are going to pull some crazy stuff- crazier than what they did to keep Ron Paul delegates off the floor.
In abject desperation, they might even ask him boring policy questions rather than trying to damn him with theatrics.

Blogger Dexter August 12, 2015 1:16 PM  

Who gives a shit what Trump's "policies" are?

He's not Jeb, and that's enough.

Because fuck you, that's why.

http://crankytrex.blogspot.com/2015/08/trump-is-fuck-you-candidate.html

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 1:22 PM  

Who gives a shit what Trump's "policies" are?

He's not Jeb, and that's enough.

Because fuck you, that's why.


You know who else isn't Jeb!?

Hillary.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 1:23 PM  

He can pull Democrat voters, especially if the harpy gets the democrat nomination. Either harpy.

No he can't.

Blogger Marissa August 12, 2015 1:25 PM  

What about Martin O'Malley against Clinton or Sanders? Haven't heard much about him.

Martin O'Malley has the audacity to 1) be a white man, 2) say all lives matter in a pathetic attempt to curry favor with the jungle bunnies supporting the black lives matter campaign.

Blogger Joshua Dyal August 12, 2015 1:25 PM  

Who gives a shit what Trump's "policies" are?

He's not Jeb, and that's enough.


Indeed. He's not ¡Jeb! and he's not the Hildabeast; there's two more great reasons to vote for him right there!

Blogger JartStar August 12, 2015 1:26 PM  

For those of you who aren't going to vote here's some election day fun for you. Since some people once again think this is "the most important election ever" and will press you for your favorite candidate you can start to use it now. Generally they are too stunned to respond.

Person: Who did you vote for?
Me: I didn't vote because I only make things worse. (Totally serious expression)
Person: What!?
Person: ...
Person: What do you mean?
Me: I've voted my whole life and I realized that things are getting worse, so I'm sorry it's my fault.
Person: How is it your fault?
Me: Look, the country's in a worse state than it was before I voted last time. That tells me I'm part of the problem. So I don't vote anymore and I apologize for my terrible decisions.
Person: Things can't get better if you don't vote.
Me: Maybe, but I know they get worse when I vote so I'm sorry I screwed things up.

Just keep apologizing if they press. It blows up the narrative that voting always makes things better.

Blogger Azimus August 12, 2015 1:27 PM  

I hate to say it but I think we are getting 1992 retread - Bush vs Clinton vs a Businessman. Bush can deliver Florida, Republicans need Florida. Cruz can deliver Texas, Republicans already have Texas. Third party candidates get huge numbers this election cycle including Trump, and my prediction is:

Bush vs Clinton vs Trump - Clinton wins in lowest presidential turnout race since 1988. A handful of states go 3rd party.

Blogger Rantor August 12, 2015 1:27 PM  

I think the administration is using FBI and Justice to get HRC out of the way for their own candidate. The President and the Clintons are not friends and the President wants to extend his control of the WH for the foreseeable future.

Blogger Jourdan August 12, 2015 1:27 PM  

Regarding Texas:

Yeah. And California's share of Republican voters was steady and growing as well. Until, you know, all those districts in the state where elementary scholl enrollment is 55-75% latino? Eventually, they hit 18.

And when that happens, Texas will go Blue just as strongly as California has.

There will be no stopping the Latin-Americanization of the U.S. through the ballot box. As Vox put it, we'll end up seeing either an American Caesar or a Latino Alaric. I'm betting pretty strongly on the latter.

Blogger Jourdan August 12, 2015 1:28 PM  

There was a punk bank in the UK back in the day that had a number of slogans, but this was my favorite:

Whoever you vote for, government wins.

Blogger Cataline Sergius August 12, 2015 1:29 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger JWM August 12, 2015 1:29 PM  

So imagine Trump has won. At what point does anyone say, "Gosh. I wish it were Hillary or Jeb in charge instead?"

JWM

Blogger The Original Hermit August 12, 2015 1:29 PM  

I was skeptically optimistic about Trump, but hearing that he wants to go after ISIS is starting to turn me away. Not necessarily a deal-breaker, but one of the few data-points on his intended foreign policy.

Blogger August August 12, 2015 1:30 PM  

Explain why Josh. There are already polls showing he's doing rather well with latinos. He's going to poll well with tough guys and the women who love them. The blue collar union types, blacks, latinos- they'll all prefer Trump to another one of these nightmare women in a pantsuit.
What is your reasoning?

Blogger Marissa August 12, 2015 1:33 PM  

As Vox put it, we'll end up seeing either an American Caesar or a Latino Alaric. I'm betting pretty strongly on the latter.

I don't know, I'm betting Alaric and his army weren't a foot-and-a-half shorter than the Roman legions. Even a lot of the legal ones don't vote, they're too busy throwing beer cans in the spaces of their yards where a truck or mound of assorted garbage isn't taking up the grass. I've seen a lot of scare-mongering about Hispanics voting against gun ownership to further make this country resemble their glorious homelands and that's not going to turn out very well in Texas.

Also @71 I'm going to use that. Hilarious.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 1:33 PM  

What is your reasoning?

Those same polls you're looking at show that he loses to Hillary.

Anonymous hausfrau August 12, 2015 1:34 PM  

@22 "How so? Pretty much all Democrats are some combination of bat sh*t crazy, economically ignorant, or scandal ridden. Don't see how any of these are deal-breakers for them."

Sadly I must concede the point without reservation. Still curious why O'Malley isn't more prominent. Probably not flashy enough.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 1:35 PM  

There will be no stopping the Latin-Americanization of the U.S. through the ballot box. As Vox put it, we'll end up seeing either an American Caesar or a Latino Alaric. I'm betting pretty strongly on the latter.

Who is the highest profile Latino democrat?

Anonymous KBT August 12, 2015 1:36 PM  

"Trump is not conservative. Trump is not consistent on anything. Trump is thin-skinned... [snip]"

We don't care.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 1:37 PM  

We don't care.

We don't care that you don't care.

Anonymous BGS August 12, 2015 1:39 PM  

the Black Lives Matter protestors haven’t invaded Hillary’s space, because we all suspect she’d shriek “GUARDS! SEIZE THEM

She gave a speech to an empty bike shop and most of her speeches have had more reporters than fans. Not sure if no one is allowed in or if that's all she can pull.

Stormtrumpers is the best neologism this year. Like stormtroopers but able to aim at targets.

Republicans have no chance based on demographics and ideology

With Voter ID and Felons not allowed to vote they have a couple decades left.

as Texas goes solid blue over the next 10-15 years-There's no evidence for any sort of trend to suggest that will happen."

Along with getting illegals, Texas is the biggest dumping ground for the UN Refugee Resettlement program. Literally dumped right onto welfare/ safety net. https://refugeeresettlementwatch.wordpress.com/2015/06/09/texas-number-one-refugee-resettlement-state-in-the-nation-primer-part-iii-what-to-do/

Blogger D. Lane (#0067) August 12, 2015 1:39 PM  

Trump is not conservative. Trump is not consistent on anything. Trump is thin-skinned, he reacts to every perceived slight with insults like a 12-year.

Principles don't matter in elections. Values don't matter in elections. Records don't matter in elections. What matters is a politician's ability to form a line.

The problem with the GOP stable is that they can't form a line. The candidates they march on stage do not convey strength, they do not convey conviction, and the their voters are choosier than little girls. The GOP establishment has no pull.

Trump is a threat because he does have pull. He conveys strength, conviction, and he has better marketing than Presbo did in '07.

When the average voter votes, he does not do so on the basis of some consistent philosophical position. He does so on the basis of what candidate he is most emotionally comfortable with, the one he feels will lead him from point A to point B.

Who do you think is most likely to evoke that feeling? "Principled" Republicans who are perceived to be part of an group synonymous with capitulation, or a guy who says what he wants, does what he wants, treats the media like his bitch, and backs up his circus act with $10 billion dollars of results?

If he doesn't get the nomination (too early to tell if his initial popularity is anything more than momentary wonder), he'll take whatever wind the GOP has in its sails and kill it with an independent run. A Trump-Cruz ticket would probably spell a Republican win, though. (This all assumes Trump doesn't blow up his own ship first.)

What policies has Trump mentioned? I'll have to research such. Rand Paul has policies.

None that he has meaningfully detailed. It would be imprudent for him to play policy at this point.

Anonymous patrick kelly August 12, 2015 1:39 PM  

@67: "You know who else isn't Jeb!?

Hillary."

Trump's not Hillary either.

Anonymous Northern Observer August 12, 2015 1:44 PM  

Rand will probably start to pick up once the hug fest for Trump ebbs.

He's not his father, but in this case the perfect really my be the enemy of the good.

His voting record seems to be about as good as one could hope for (again, not being his dad)

Blogger David-093 August 12, 2015 1:45 PM  

So...Trump loses to Hillary, Jeb loses to Hillary, but don't vote for Trump?

I'd vote for anyone of the others if they had even the slightest chance of actually making a difference. But they don't show any backbone, save for perhaps Walker and him telling the unions to go fuck themselves. That was pretty great.

Blogger August August 12, 2015 1:46 PM  

I don't think so Josh. It looks like different polls. It also looks like somebody is trying to bury the one where he polls well with hispanics by polluting the search with a lot of polls that purport the opposite. Did you have a theory, or are you just guessing based on polls?

Anonymous Eric Ashley August 12, 2015 1:47 PM  

Josh keeps saying that Trump is the poor's idea of a rich man.

Trump has 7 BEEELLION Dollars.

Does he need to be as rich as Gates before Josh concedes the man has some simoleons?

Billionaires tend to be a law unto themselves. Maybe the little peasants with chump change, a mere ten million, act discretely, or something. But Gates....Turner....Branscomb....not seeing a huge number of shrinking violets here.

Blogger Sad Puppy August 12, 2015 1:48 PM  

@63
And a Sanders/Trump 3rd party run could replace my Cthulhu/Loki bumper sticker.....

------------------------
Yeah, this would be insane. A super capitalist and a Beardless Marxist working together?

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 1:50 PM  

"Does he need to be as rich as Gates before Josh concedes the man has some simoleons?"

he's not saying he's not rich. He's saying he's a caricature.

Anonymous praetorian August 12, 2015 1:50 PM  

Trump/Cent 2016: dinducare dat du dinducare

Blogger automatthew August 12, 2015 1:51 PM  

Trump will give Hillary a stroke if he plays as mean with her as he's playing now.

Anonymous A Visitor August 12, 2015 1:51 PM  

"Stormtrumpers is the best neologism this year."

It makes me smile and I say that as someone who supports Trump (specifically due to his vocal comments against amnesty, that's it).

"Republicans have no chance based on demographics and ideology"

Give it eight more years. If immigration becomes THE issue, the GOP may survive provided they continue to have those elected actually enforce immigration law, which hasn't been enforced for as long as I've been alive plus two months.

"There's going to be an election?

Not just any election.

THE MOST IMPORTANTEST ELECTION EVAR!!!"

It actually will be in the sense that it'll probably be the LAST TIME EVAH to get immigration under control.

"Sometime next year, I've been told. I'll probably go make my token vote for some third party candidate (unless Larry is right and Cruz does get the nomination, he has enough good points I'll think about voting for him) and write my wife in for the House (there's almost never a third party candidate for the House)."

Constitution Party, FTW!

"I completely agree the discussion is irrelevant. The Republicans cannot win at the national level ever again, and this fact on the ground will only get worse from them as Texas goes solid blue over the next 10-15 years.

All I can say is: the worse, the better. We so deserve another Bush or Clinton."

It makes me wonder what the country will be like in twenty years time when I'll probably have kids heading off for college (the sons at least). It kills me how much freer my parents' generation, Boomers, were in terms of actual political freedom.

"as Texas goes solid blue over the next 10-15 years

There's no evidence for any sort of trend to suggest that will happen."

All the Californians moving to Austin? All the illegals living in El Paso, Eagle Pass, San Antonio, Houston (Houston is a sanctuary city)? The fact that we now have illegals voting, albeit illegally, in elections? Talk in DC and other liberal areas of allowing non-citizens to vote in local elections (you really think they'll be sure to verify citizenship before federal ballots are cast)? Haven't lived in TX for three years but even then knew it was going blue.

"Bush can win if he's up against Hillary and Trump isn't a factor. Not because Bush is any good, but because, if given the choice between Hillary and Bush on a ballot, I doubt most voters are masochistic enough to pull one for what they all know to be the greater and most unliked evil."

I'd vote third party again if that were the case. Bush and Hillary are both for amnesty, enough said.

"I think Hillary gets indicted.
The FBI and the DOJ work for the same man Biden does."

Obama hates her enough that he might tell the FBI and DOJ to stick it to her.

@44 Thanks for the laugh brah.

Blogger Marissa August 12, 2015 1:51 PM  

Josh keeps saying that Trump is the poor's idea of a rich man.

Trump has 7 BEEELLION Dollars.

Does he need to be as rich as Gates before Josh concedes the man has some simoleons?


It's his behavior, which is very tacky nouveau riche. Like a sports star or rapper. More entertaining though, since his IQ is clearly higher than either of those groups.

Anonymous Ras al Ghul August 12, 2015 1:51 PM  

Its going to be Jeb, unless Trump unseats him. He has Florida sewn up, and its a winner take all state with a 99 delegates. The other states, he just needs to place, at that point he'll be in the lead. The establishment, ie Wall Street, wants him, because he's identical to Hillary. The other candidates like Cruz and Perry (break up Texas) Rubio (weaken any other candidate other than bush in Florida), Graham (south Carolina), are all there to make sure to siphon off support from any other candidate in their respective states (like walker) so that people like Walker can't win (even if they don't realize that's what their "backers" are using them for)

Its rigged from the start, the only thing that would change the Hillary v. Bush slate is if Obama decides to destroy the Clintons and has her indicted (or pulls a Ford and pardons her ahead of time publicly for any and all wrong doing) and Trump because he's a wild card.

And frankly, it doesn't matter, they're identical in all the ways that matter: Common Core, Amnesty, you name it their interchangable

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 1:52 PM  

what the Trump people are forgetting is that there are just as many people who loathe him on the right, as love him on the right.

He's extremely polarizing.

He'd get his ass handed to him in an election against a democrat because a YUGE chunk of the republican base will simply stay home. Just like they did for Romney and McCain.

Blogger His Majesty August 12, 2015 1:53 PM  

Disappointing, that so many fall for Ted I-stole-Dubya's-playbook Cruz. What's he actually done, other than staying up all night for no reason?

These folks are the ones who'll jump on the Jabe! bandwagon at the last minute (if Mr. T hasn't sewn it up by then) because 'this is the most important ele......."

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 1:54 PM  

"Its going to be Jeb, unless Trump unseats him. "

I think you have most of this correct... except you're failing to grasp that Trump is also part of the plan to give us Jeb.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 1:54 PM  

I don't think so Josh. It looks like different polls. It also looks like somebody is trying to bury the one where he polls well with hispanics by polluting the search with a lot of polls that purport the opposite. Did you have a theory, or are you just guessing based on polls?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/president/

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton McClatchy/Marist Clinton 54, Trump 38 Clinton +16

Minnesota: Trump vs. Clinton PPP (D) Clinton 44, Trump 39 Clinton +5

New Hampshire: Trump vs. Clinton WMUR/UNH Clinton 50, Trump 40 Clinton +10

Iowa: Trump vs. Clinton PPP (D) Clinton 43, Trump 40 Clinton +3

Blogger Cataline Sergius August 12, 2015 1:54 PM  

As amusing as he is as a protest candidate. Trump is ultimately a New York liberal.

If by some dark miracle he was actually elected, there is zero chance...I mean no chance whatsoever that he wouldn't do a complete one eighty on immigration.

If elected Trump would offer Amnesty.

There is no doubt in my mind on this matter whatsoever.

Anonymous praetorian August 12, 2015 1:56 PM  

it doesn't matter, they're identical in all the ways that matter

Exactly. We are all sitting down to a banquet of lulz, regardless.

Anonymous The Millennial Falcon August 12, 2015 1:58 PM  

Cruz is bad on foreign policy and legal immigration, but you've got to respect his willingness to take on the GOP establishment (amazingly moreso than Rand). He's not a total hack, which would be a huge upgrade on Dole/Bush/McCain/Romney as GOP nominees.

He's hard to like because he talks like a smarmy high school debater and speaks with all the winsome sincerity of a lab-coated infomercial spokesman, but he's got something akin to principles under the hack facade.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 1:59 PM  

Josh keeps saying that Trump is the poor's idea of a rich man.

Trump has 7 BEEELLION Dollars.

Does he need to be as rich as Gates before Josh concedes the man has some simoleons?


Thank you for providing us with an example.

Trump claims to be worth 10-11 billion, probably overstating his claim by 2-3x (Forbes, Bloomberg, etc calculate his wealth to be 2-4bn).

Rich people exaggerate their wealth. That's why Trump is a poor person's idea of a rich person.

Blogger His Majesty August 12, 2015 2:00 PM  

Slow day on Wall Street, Nate?

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 2:00 PM  

He'd get his ass handed to him in an election against a democrat because a YUGE chunk of the republican base will simply stay home. Just like they did for Romney and McCain.

Yeah but that YOOOGE chuck of voters are losers and whiners and not classy, so he doesn't want their vote...

Anonymous BGS August 12, 2015 2:05 PM  

Josh reminds me of my Soros cheerleader ex boyfriends. Does he collect checks from Soros like HilLIARy & Jeb? Illegal immigration is the only thing that matters because we are getting overrun by low IQ people that will only vote for more free stuff. Look to South Africa that has sporadic water & power in its capital.

Interesting how everyone immediately thinks Jabe! and Grandma are the two nominees,

They are the favorite of jewish billionaires, oddly giving to both.

Texas is suddenly going to start allowing IIs tovote. Holder fought FL removing proven illegal aliens from voter logs. Did you miss James OKeefe breaking up Battleground TX but the leftists got to keep the stolen data?

He can pull Democrat voters, especially if the harpy gets the democrat nomination. Either harpy.

The best thing he can do is break up both establishments. He can get the low info democrats that know he can run a business.

Who is the highest profile Latino democrat? Congressman Bob"14yo hookers" Menendez.

he's not saying he's not rich. He's saying he's a caricature. Caricatures exist for the same reason as stereotypes, the person arrested for having sex in a graveyard is more likely to be gay/lesbian than their fair share of the population.

Blogger Dexter August 12, 2015 2:08 PM  

Josh keeps saying that Trump is the poor's idea of a rich man.

Trump has 7 BEEELLION Dollars.

Does he need to be as rich as Gates before Josh concedes the man has some simoleons?

It's his behavior, which is very tacky nouveau riche. Like a sports star or rapper.


The quiet, sophisticated, understated, and non-aggressive approach of rich man's rich man Mitt Romney fared so well that it is surprising that Trump doesn't emulate it.

Anonymous Eric Ashley August 12, 2015 2:08 PM  

They're all caricatures to some degree; Trump just takes the ordinary up to 11.

Tacky? Sure. But that's not much of a reason to vote. One of our best presidents was known for inviting in people to the Oval Office, and then hiding under the desk.

In this day, dignity is vastly overrated.

And Trump being a stalking horse for either Hillary or Jeb....maybe. Thing is, he's going to ride this as far as he can for as much benefits as he can. If he can make it to the WH he thinks, he will go for it.

Will he be better than Jeb or Hillary? Yes, but then so would my cat 'Hot Dog'. Than the others? Well, they need to get up and do something to warrant interest. Right now I'm too sleepy to pay attention to Cru...snore...Walk....yawn...Ra...snooze.

Anonymous praetorian August 12, 2015 2:10 PM  

He'd get his ass handed to him in an election against a democrat

That's the source of disagreement: some people, deep down, can't help but feel that the election matters.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 2:10 PM  

Josh reminds me of my Soros cheerleader ex boyfriends. Does he collect checks from Soros like HilLIARy & Jeb?

Dude if I'm collecting checks from anyone to post on the internet, wouldn't I be obviously getting them as part of the Koch Brothers Internet Army of Libertarians? You need to troll harder.

Illegal immigration is the only thing that matters because we are getting overrun by low IQ people that will only vote for more free stuff.

If you think the problem is only ILLEGAL immigration, you might be a cuckservative.

Anonymous The Millennial Falcon August 12, 2015 2:12 PM  

I'd say Cruz is a bit like Ben Shapiro - obnoxious to Christian libertarians for his uber-hawk, Israel-first foreign policy and for his coziness with neocon weasels; obnoxious to Alpha Gamers for their beta/delta socio-sexual tendencies; and obnoxious to anti-establishment Gen Xers for their Harvard/prep school elitist affectations and the cluelessness that goes with that. BUT not a cuckservative - they don't run screaming from accusations of racism/sexism/homophobia or associations with those so labeled.

Blogger Dexter August 12, 2015 2:12 PM  

Tacky? Sure. But that's not much of a reason to vote.

Did you forget the "because fuck you!" part?

It is pretty much the only reason to vote for anyone at this point.

Blogger Cataline Sergius August 12, 2015 2:13 PM  

Trump claims to be worth 10-11 billion, probably overstating his claim by 2-3x (Forbes, Bloomberg, etc calculate his wealth to be 2-4bn).

Rich people exaggerate their wealth. That's why Trump is a poor person's idea of a rich person.


Actually he's dumb person's idea of rich person.

Probably the biggest reason Trump will drop out. Sooner or later he would have to put his wealth into a blind trust. A juggling act needs it's juggler. He'd loose half his money in six months under those circumstances.

Blogger His Majesty August 12, 2015 2:13 PM  

@106. The Millennial Falcon

Can't say I respect that because it's only been words and that's a required prop from the ol hand-on-yer-heart "outside the mainstream" playbook. He's married to Goldman-Sachs fer Christ's sake. Transparent. That so many can't see it explains how we got where we are.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 2:14 PM  

Probably the biggest reason Trump will drop out. Sooner or later he would have to put his wealth into a blind trust. A juggling act needs it's juggler. He'd loose half his money in six months under those circumstances.

If you look at the balance sheet he presented back in June, he's already lost the 3.3bn value of the Trump brand since all his licensing deals fell apart.

Blogger Jourdan August 12, 2015 2:15 PM  

@ Josh Who is the highest profile Latino democrat?

Yeah, Josh, I'm going to go waaay out on a limb here and guess you are not from the Southwest. You just don't understand how Latinos operate.They aren't an up coming demographic in the ordinary sense, like as before when one began to see Irish Catholics come of political age in Massachusetts.

That's not how Latinos work. Oh, they'll have leaders all right, but they aren't into working within our system. They bring their system with them.

Imagine you live near the Canadian border and all of a sudden there are all these Canadian kids in school, Canadian accents everywhere. Intersting, you think.

Then one day, all the Starbucks are Tim Hortons and the Maple Leaf is everywhere and all that is on TV is hockey 24/7.

That's how it works, except you don't end up with good doughnuts and some hard-hitting NHL action.

You get disposible diapers everywhere, the same damn song played at 11, 24/7, and police sirens all night, except for when your grandmother calls 911 after getting creamed by a DUI, they're too busy.

And, really, you're quoting polls? POLLS? It's 14 freaking months to election day, man. Polls mean nothing at this stage except for political junkies and news hounds.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 2:15 PM  

BUT not a cuckservative - they don't run screaming from accusations of racism/sexism/homophobia or associations with those so labeled.

The littlest chickenhawk is not a cuckservative?

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 2:17 PM  

And, really, you're quoting polls? POLLS? It's 14 freaking months to election day, man. Polls mean nothing at this stage except for political junkies and news hounds.

If stormtrumpers are going to quote polls to show that Dear Leader is winning, it's more than fair to quote those polls to show that he's going to get annihilated by Hillary.

Anonymous Eric Ashley August 12, 2015 2:17 PM  

Dexter, on that 'tacky' bit I'm replying to Marissa who had it as a reason not to vote for Trump. Me, I'm fine with an FU vote.

Anonymous BigGaySteve August 12, 2015 2:19 PM  

If you think the problem is only ILLEGAL immigration, you might be a cuckservative.

Did you miss what I posted about the refugee resentment program squatting the 3rd world in RED states? With the exception of threads specifically about gays, I post more about legal fake refugees than gay stuff.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 2:22 PM  

Did you miss what I posted about the refugee resentment program squatting the 3rd world in RED states? With the exception of threads specifically about gays, I post more about legal fake refugees than gay stuff.

Did you miss where you said Illegal immigration is the only thing that matters?

Blogger Dexter August 12, 2015 2:25 PM  

Probably the biggest reason Trump will drop out. Sooner or later he would have to put his wealth into a blind trust.

Heh, LBJ said he did a blind trust and then managed his wealth from the Oval Office, I think the Trump is smart enough to figure out how to get around that.

Blogger Miguel D'Anconia August 12, 2015 2:26 PM  

I, for one, don't give a sh*t. Nothing will change because the system survives.

Anonymous The Millennial Falcon August 12, 2015 2:27 PM  

@ His Majesty

I think it's more than just words for Cruz (though what do Senators have other than words and votes?). They've earned him the legit enmity of the establishment GOP senators.

Not saying he's fearless, just that he's not craven.

Blogger napari August 12, 2015 2:30 PM  

Its surprising how so many are assuming Hi-liar-y is going to be the Democratic nominee and not tied up trying to get her jail sentenced reduced. ;)

Blogger His Majesty August 12, 2015 2:33 PM  

They've earned him the legit enmity of the establishment GOP senators.

Are they just too preoccupied with the Trumpenthreat or did I miss the censure?

Blogger Retrenched August 12, 2015 2:39 PM  

Conservative critiques of Trump may be understandable, but they are irrelevant. If nothing is done to stop the influx of Mexicans from the south then American conservatism is finished anyway. And Trump is the only one in the race who might do something to prevent it.

As John Rivers said on Twitter, what's the point of politics and debates if Democrats can just keep importing new voters until they win? Why bother fighting for low taxes, Obamacare repeal and so on while leaving the borders open, which willl guarantee that all of America ends up with the politics of California anyway?

Yes, it's possible that Trump will win and still not fix the border. Every president of my lifetime has broken campaign promises, and I wouldn't be surprised if Trump does the same if he wins. But he's the only one who might actually do something to secure the border -- none of the GOP cucks would, and no Democrat would have any reason to.

Anonymous The Millennial Falcon August 12, 2015 2:40 PM  

@ Josh

Check his performance on Dr. Drew with Zoey Tur. He's not a cuckservative.

He's got the creepy neocon lust for torture and he's got a lot of entitled elitist brat about him.

I can see the Israel-first foreign policy as an aspect of cuckservatism, but elsewhere he's not toeing the cuckservative line.

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 2:40 PM  

"Did you forget the "because fuck you!" part?

It is pretty much the only reason to vote for anyone at this point."

that's all good and well... the problem is that the vast majority of Trump supporters are supporting him because they really think he can and will fix things.

that is the problem Josh and I have with them.

Anonymous KBT August 12, 2015 2:47 PM  

"We don't care.

We don't care that you don't care."

That's the spirit!

Blogger His Majesty August 12, 2015 2:49 PM  

the problem is that the vast majority of Trump supporters are supporting him because they really think he can and will fix things.

Don't think so. My guess is it's 10 to 1 for the FU principle.

Anonymous The Millennial Falcon August 12, 2015 2:50 PM  

@ His Majesty

He's got all the hacks whining about the erosion of decorum on the Senate floor (after his attacks on the leadership) as well as the leadership freezing him out of making amendments because he called them out.

I'm not in love with Cruz as a candidate. But there's a reason why the establishment co-opted fellow Tea Party "hero" Rubio and not him. He shares a lot of positions with GOP hacks, but he seems to be his own man ideologically. That counts for something.

Blogger LysanderSpooner August 12, 2015 2:51 PM  

"Bush vs Clinton vs Trump - Clinton wins"

I kinda like that scenario, when the SHTF the DemoCraps can die like they deserve.

But then again: Trump 2016

Because...

Fuck you!

Is kind of attractive: Or

Trump 2016

Because

He makes your whatever bleed !!!

Anonymous KBT August 12, 2015 2:53 PM  

"a HUGE chunk of the republican base will simply stay home."

And a wildly successful strategy that has been, yesiree, Bob.

"the problem is that the vast majority of Trump supporters are supporting him because they really think he can and will fix things."

Well, I can only speak for me. I think there is maybe a slim chance he could accidentally cobble together a functional Cabinet, but, yeah, I'm in the "fuck you" camp. It's fun here!

The main obstacle is, of course, that most of our problems are unfixable given the current state of human nature. A (mostly) benevolent dictatorship armed with a nigh infinite supply of super-enforcer robots might be able to pull of a few fixes.

Blogger August August 12, 2015 2:53 PM  

Josh,

That is one poll. The poll about the hispanics liking him is a different one. They are not the same poll.

Now why do you believe that poll? Personally, I don't. Fewer and fewer people with ideals actually vote, both on the right and the left. I don't vote, and I am not going to for any of these jokers. But among democrats, there are still subcultures with machismo in them, and I don't see them voting for Hilary over Trump.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 2:55 PM  

That is one poll. The poll about the hispanics liking him is a different one. They are not the same poll.

Actually all the polls I listed are separate polls.

Anonymous DavidKathome August 12, 2015 2:59 PM  

After the gambling websites called the 2008 and 2012 Presidential elections with over 90-95% accuracy at the state level, you shouldn't prognosticate on the election without checking them. Based on the odds makers, it will be Hillary Clinton vs Jeb Bush with Hillary becoming President. Trump has risen spectacularly in the betting odds over the last few months, recently passing Biden and Paul, but still doesn't have as good a shot as Rubio or Walker.

Blogger hank.jim August 12, 2015 3:02 PM  

Imagine Cruz and Rubio on the ticket. Hispanics hate Cruz and might tolerate Rubio. They will still vote for Hillary. This is where identity politics versus partisan politics meet the boxing ring.

Anonymous Nathanael August 12, 2015 3:02 PM  

Trump is absolutely the only Republican candidate I would vote for in the general election. Because 1) border fence and immigration and 2) fuck the establishment. All the people saying Trump doesn't have positions are just announcing their inability or unwillingness to look them up, they're out there.

The original Rand Paul might have been a better choice, but his attacks against Trump for "evolving" are hilarious based on how many of Paul's positions have "evolved" since getting elected and always in the wrong direction. At least Trump is "evolving" towards me.

Blogger Tiny Tim August 12, 2015 3:04 PM  

Missed the boat on Hillary.

Who is going after her? The Obama Administration.

On whose orders? Obviously the elite power structure.

She will never be President.

Blogger Joshua Sinistar August 12, 2015 3:05 PM  

Cruz? He's just too White. White Hispanics just don't rate high enough on the food chain. Sure all the Democratic candidates are White, but that's different somehow. The GOP doesn't need no voters! That got friends in low places handing them cash.
The diversity must outweigh any irrelevant details like getting votes and let's face it the GOP has said its base is too White and racist. Soon Rand Bland and all the cucks are going to do the loser route of pander to black supremacists that hate them. Whoever wears the albatross of the Republican label ain't gonna win nothing anytime soon.

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 3:05 PM  

"And a wildly successful strategy that has been, yesiree, Bob."

I don't see how you can claim it was a failed strategy.

Romney would've governend exactly the same way as obama.. and in fact would've been less lazy and the republicans in congress wouldn't be obstructing him.

In reality I think a case can be made that Obama has kept the country more to the right than where it may have been under Romney.

and either way... we don't have a president on our conscience.

in 2006 I wrote that voting booths are worse than adult bookstore porn booths... useless masturbation takes place in both... but at least the pornsters have sense enough not to brag about their obscene habits.

Blogger Dexter August 12, 2015 3:05 PM  

that's all good and well... the problem is that the vast majority of Trump supporters are supporting him because they really think he can and will fix things.

Meh. We can be much more certain that neither Shrillary nor Jeb are even gonna try. In fact they will actively make things worse.

Blogger D. Lane (#0067) August 12, 2015 3:05 PM  

Don't think so. My guess is it's 10 to 1 for the FU principle.

I trust Trump as far as I can throw him (which his security detail will assure you isn't far).

Even so, I'll tap his name if it's on the ballot. Because FU.

Blogger Tiny Tim August 12, 2015 3:06 PM  

Trump isn't going to put anything into a blind trust.

His kids will run his empire while he is President, and brief him daily.

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 3:07 PM  

"Trump is absolutely the only Republican candidate I would vote for in the general election. Because 1) border fence and immigration and 2) fuck the establishment"

See?

SEE?

this is the dumbassery that pisses me off.

he wants to vote for trump because fence!!! and because establishment!!!

Well there are about 10 guys out there who are better than Trump on both of those counts... and unlike Trump.. they aren't shilling for the establishment.

Blogger Tiny Tim August 12, 2015 3:08 PM  

For those who think Trump is a shill I would recommend you quit cinching up you tin foil sombrero's so tight.

Anonymous Nathanael August 12, 2015 3:11 PM  

"Well there are about 10 guys out there who are better than Trump on both of those counts."

There are far more than that, but none of them are running for President.


"and unlike Trump.. they aren't shilling for the establishment."

Show me on the doll where Trump touched you.

Blogger Tiny Tim August 12, 2015 3:11 PM  

If Trump is a shill then the power structure set him down, said we can indict you on the following 7,234 counts, and you will lose everything. Or, you can do the following.

That is the only way they have him playing ball.

Blogger Tiny Tim August 12, 2015 3:12 PM  

Trump has a beautiful family and loves his kids.

He wants to be more than a reality TV show host who owns casino's, golf courses and hotels.

He wants to be President.

Blogger Tiny Tim August 12, 2015 3:14 PM  

Trump will win.

There is no-one other than Hillary and Bush who have the name recognition, and on both counts that is not a positive.

Bush is a loser. Hillary is an old hag. They are both toast.

Blogger His Majesty August 12, 2015 3:14 PM  

See?

SEE?


All right, that's one.

Hey, do a poll!

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 3:24 PM  

"There are far more than that, but none of them are running for President."

yes. They are. You're just a pig ignorant trump supporter so you don't realize the guy who you think talks tough... is actually one of the more moderate republican candidates on immigration.

Several candidates want to end ALL immigration period. Not just illegal like the cuckservative you're supporting.

OpenID vfm360 August 12, 2015 3:28 PM  

@102 I think you have most of this correct... except you're failing to grasp that Trump is also part of the plan to give us Jeb.

Absolutely 100% correct Nate. I have been saying this since Trump came into the picture.

Anonymous Nathanael August 12, 2015 3:32 PM  

"Several candidates want to end ALL immigration period."

Which ones specifically? Every single Republican candidate is on record as in favor of legal immigration, many for increasing it, and half are for amnesty too.

Blogger Cail Corishev August 12, 2015 3:32 PM  

He says Jeb will not get the nomination because he is boring, lame, and non-conservative.


Yeah, I think he's over-thinking it. The GOP doesn't pick a candidate based on who can win. Strategic considerations barely enter into it beyond the most superficial. It's based on questions like: Whose turn is it? Who has the most money? Who can accumulate the most money along the way? Who will be most loyal and predictable when it comes time to hand out patronage jobs to the people who got him there?

Ask yourself those questions.

It's Jeb's turn. It's been his turn since his brother got elected 16 years ago. (Surely longer than that, but that's how long they've been open about it.) Heck, they already know which Bush comes next in the line.

Last I heard, Jeb has far and away the most money (other than Trump, but his isn't donor money, which is what makes him a wild card). He has all that money because most of the party hacks already lined up behind him and started fundraising well before he officially entered the race (at that point the restrictions tighten on donations). The party has already invested in him.

Jeb can accumulate the most along the way. Like it or not (and I don't), name recognition and familiarity are huge. The people who donate to the exciting, new candidate are in the minority. Most of the people who give $2500 for a plate at a GOP fundraising dinner are the kind of conservative pillars of the community who value the status quo above all else. They know exactly what they'll get from Jeb, and feel safe that it will be good for their businesses or at least not threaten them.

Jeb will probably act most predictably when it comes to paying back supporters -- or at least he's no worse than anyone else in the field on this. From the perspective of local GOP precinct heads, Trump, on the other hand, might blow them all off and staff the White House entirely with execs from his hotels and Miss Universe also-rans.

Jeb is the nominee unless someone knocks him off, and he won't be knocked off through the usual GOP campaign process, because it's designed to prevent the unexpected. That won't be obvious for a while, maybe not until after Iowa next year, because the way the GOP process works, nothing matters much until then. Then you'll start to hear, "I like Cruz/Walker/whomever better, but Bush is the only one who has more money than Hillary. He's not so bad, really; we'd better stop wishing for perfection and get behind him."

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 3:40 PM  

"Which ones specifically? Every single Republican candidate is on record as in favor of legal immigration, many for increasing it, and half are for amnesty too."

Santorum and Jindal both came out against ending legal immigration period in the debate and both had made similar statements leading up to the debate. That's two off the top of my head.

Blogger M Cephas August 12, 2015 3:43 PM  

Cruz is actually a good candidate. But if he doesn't show more enthusiasm regarding the immigration issue, I have no reason to think he'll take it as seriously as Trump.

The Republicans aren't stupid. They know why Trump is leading. Yet look how many of them refuse to take his stance on immigration. Cruz is the only one who might take it up.

Rand will never take it up. Jindal is a white knighting pussy that will never get elected. Carson wants to stop immigration by getting rid of incentives, which won't happen.

Trump and Cruz are the only possibilities I see.

Anonymous The Millennial Falcon August 12, 2015 3:45 PM  

@ Nate

What part of routinely pantsing the thought police makes Trump a shill for the establishment?

There are a ton of guys better than Trump in terms of positions, but none of them have landed actual blows on our enemies like Trump has.

You are missing the President as culture warrior angle. Trump has forced open the Overton window on immigration. By his sheer belligerence, he's done the same on feminism. He has the chance to do so on race and sexuality and Israel, even if he ultimately comes down on the progressive/neocon side.

I'm amazed to see people who love to bust out the popcorn and cheer on the collapse are suddenly outraged that some of their fellows have fallen in love with a wrecking ball.

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 3:45 PM  

"All right, that's one."

and Tiny Tim.

so its two.

Anonymous Nathanael August 12, 2015 3:52 PM  

"Santorum and Jindal both came out against ending legal immigration period in the debate"

"We've got a backwards system: low walls and a narrow gate. We need a high walls and wide gate." -Bobby Jindal (Feb 2014)
http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/susan-jones/immigration-jindal-calls-high-walls-and-broad-gate

"I strongly believe in legal immigration and believe we are that shining city on the hill." -Rick Santorum (Nov 2011)
https://www.numbersusa.com/content/nusablog/beckr/december-29-2011/santorum-surges-iowa-pause-check-his-immigration-profile.html

So bottomline is that you're advocating believing that Jindal and Santorum have genuinely "evolved" on issues, but not Trump. Basically you're just blowing smoke out of your ass.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 3:55 PM  

He has the chance to do so on race and sexuality and Israel, even if he ultimately comes down on the progressive/neocon side.

On Israel, he said, “We love Israel. We will fight for Israel 100 percent, 1,000 percent. It will be there forever.”

Blogger Cataline Sergius August 12, 2015 3:57 PM  

The only real concern about Trump is that once he fails to the get the nomination he will run a spoiler campaign.

It's expensive and time consuming but the Democrats will happily pony up the money to support Trump just like they did Todd Aiken. As for the time factor, right now that egomaniac is enjoying the glory of the campaign trail with idiots shouting his name and cheering him. He will undoubtedly want more.

There are two ways to prevent that. The way that doesn't involve a murder charge means that instead of Carly as a running mate. Cruz or Walker is going to be stuck with Trump.

I'm praying it won't come to that.

Unless of course Bush is the nominee in which case I'm off to the Philippines.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 3:58 PM  

"I strongly believe in legal immigration and believe we are that shining city on the hill." -Rick Santorum (Nov 2011)
https://www.numbersusa.com/content/nusablog/beckr/december-29-2011/santorum-surges-iowa-pause-check-his-immigration-profile.html


Well if you want to use Numbers USA, look at how they rate the presidential field.

Trump C+ Santorum A

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/elections/races/presidential/2016-presidential-hopefuls.html

Blogger His Majesty August 12, 2015 3:58 PM  

On Israel, he said, “We love Israel. We will fight for Israel 100 percent, 1,000 percent. It will be there forever.”

This is how we know it's the FU and not the policies that's made him so popular.

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 4:01 PM  

"What part of routinely pantsing the thought police makes Trump a shill for the establishment?"

The part where its all staged.

Trump is tanking for Jeb Bush.

Anonymous Nathanael August 12, 2015 4:02 PM  

"Well if you want to use Numbers USA, look at how they rate the presidential field."

The claim was that there exist Republican candidates who want to genuinely end all immigration. That claim is false; all Republican candidates support continuing legal immigration, especially with Rick "proud son of an immigrant" Santorum.

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 4:02 PM  

""I strongly believe in legal immigration and believe we are that shining city on the hill." -Rick Santorum (Nov 2011)"

nov 2011.

Guess what Trump was saying in 2013.

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 4:03 PM  

"
The claim was that there exist Republican candidates who want to genuinely end all immigration."

correct. and a quote from 2011 doesn't disprove a position in 2015.

Numbers USA is an organization out to end all immigration.

They give Santorum an A.

It means you're wrong.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 4:05 PM  

The claim was that there exist Republican candidates who want to genuinely end all immigration. That claim is false; all Republican candidates support continuing legal immigration, especially with Rick "proud son of an immigrant" Santorum.

Look man, they gave him an A rating. He's the only candidate to get higher than a B.

So if immigration is your top issue, why aren't you supporting him?

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 4:09 PM  

During a rally in Arizona in July 2015, Mr. Trump hinted at increasing legal immigration levels if elected President. "They flow in like water, and I love legal immigration. I love it. We should make it easier, and faster." Source: http://national.suntimes.com/national-world-news/7/72/1454884/carly-fiorina-donald-trump-immigration-common-sense

Anonymous Nathanael August 12, 2015 4:09 PM  

"and a quote from 2011 doesn't disprove a position in 2015."

Trump has never been against a border wall, but Santorum was the exact opposite four years ago. So your position is that an establishment hack like Santorum has evolved, but a maverick like Trump hasn't. A supremely unconvincing position.

Blogger Groot August 12, 2015 4:11 PM  

"Does Walker sizzle? Not exactly. Is he a particularly charismatic speaker? No, he isn’t. But does he sit upon a throne made of the skulls of his enemies? Yes, yes he does."

Fun quote.

Blogger M Cephas August 12, 2015 4:11 PM  

Santorum getting elected, that's really going to happen. He would not get elected even if he became the Republican nominee. It's not just a matter of who has what policies.

Trump has read Ann Coulter's book though since his previous stance on immigration, so anyone who keeps bringing that up is being dishonest.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 4:12 PM  

Trump has never been against a border wall, but Santorum was the exact opposite four years ago. So your position is that an establishment hack like Santorum has evolved, but a maverick like Trump hasn't. A supremely unconvincing position.

Can you support your statement that Santorum was against a border wall in 2011?

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 4:13 PM  

"So your position is that an establishment hack like Santorum has evolved, but a maverick like Trump hasn't. A supremely unconvincing position."

no dumbass.

My point is that santorum went from wanting to reform legal immigration (and yes build a fence) to now talking about shutting it all down.

And you're so damn ignorant you don't realize the guy you are supporting wants massive amounts of immigration.

You are right though... he's not changed his position.

He's always wanted tons of immigration and amnesty... and he still does.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 4:13 PM  

Trump has read Ann Coulter's book though since his previous stance on immigration, so anyone who keeps bringing that up is being dishonest.

Holy shit he read a book. Wow, you've convinced me...

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 4:14 PM  

"Santorum getting elected, that's really going to happen"

we're not talking about elections Nancy. We're talking about an issue... and the claim that Trump is somehow the pointman for it. He isn't. He never has been.

Blogger Dexter August 12, 2015 4:14 PM  

"If Trump is a shill then the power structure set him down, said we can indict you on the following 7,234 counts, and you will lose everything. "

No, no, no. Carrot, not stick.

Play ball, and we will send government contracts your way.

If the establishment has decided that Hillary should win, then Trump's role is to split the Republican vote like Perot did for Bill in 1992.

Trump's role for the GOP establishment is to eliminate all non-Jebs from contention by focusing all the attention on himself, then to step aside and let Jeb inherit the nomination.

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 4:15 PM  

"During a rally in Arizona in July 2015, Mr. Trump hinted at increasing legal immigration levels if elected President. "

So...

When exactly did Trump read the book? Must've been after July of 2015.

Blogger Student in Blue August 12, 2015 4:15 PM  

The part where its all staged.

I wish I knew where you got all your confidence for this claim.

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 4:16 PM  

"
Trump's role for the GOP establishment is to eliminate all non-Jebs from contention by focusing all the attention on himself, then to step aside and let Jeb inherit the nomination."

correct... or to take all the heat for Jeb while starving everyone else of air time.

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 4:17 PM  

"I wish I knew where you got all your confidence for this claim."

its plain old pattern recognition.

Anonymous BGS August 12, 2015 4:17 PM  

Did you miss where you said Illegal immigration is the only thing that matters?

You have to deal with the crack whores before you crack down on $5,000 a night escorts. Driving out 20 million illegals will be a lot easier than going after the fake asylum seekers, but once we drive them out the same people will have experience enough to boot more. Just like all the Soros cheerleaders didn't stop getting checks after Gay Marriage, they just got new marching orders.

Blogger Cail Corishev August 12, 2015 4:18 PM  

Numbers USA is an organization out to end all immigration.

They give Santorum an A.


And their page on Santorum says he wants to limit legal immigration to 750,000, which they point out is only a 25% reduction. That's not ending all immigration.

Yes, Santorum is very good on immigration at this moment, compared to the rest. He's the only candidate I could vote for, if I bothered. But considering that, like Trump, he's come to these beliefs rather recently, I don't blame people for being slow to trust his conversion.

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 4:18 PM  

by the way... where are we on the FU vs True Believer score card now? Looks like the True Believers are coming out of the wood work.

Anonymous Nathanael August 12, 2015 4:18 PM  

"Can you support your statement that Santorum was against a border wall in 2011?"

I was unclear, that was referring Santorum's position on legal immigration. I acknowledge that Trump is pro-legal immigration, but so is every other Republican candidate despite what the tinfoilers are pushing.

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 4:19 PM  

"And their page on Santorum says he wants to limit legal immigration to 750,000, which they point out is only a 25% reduction. That's not ending all immigration."

fair enough.

He gets an A. He's sure as hell better than Trump on immigration... and that's my point.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 4:19 PM  

Hey look, Numbers USA gave Santorum an A- in 2012...

https://www.numbersusa.com/content/nusablog/beckr/january-15-2012/santorum-opposes-chain-migration-visa-lottery-earns-immigration-grade

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 4:20 PM  

I was unclear, that was referring Santorum's position on legal immigration. I acknowledge that Trump is pro-legal immigration, but so is every other Republican candidate despite what the tinfoilers are pushing.

So why are you supporting Trump?

Blogger Nate August 12, 2015 4:20 PM  

" I acknowledge that Trump is pro-legal immigration, but so is every other Republican candidate despite what the tinfoilers are ps ushing."

We've demonstrated clearly that Santorum is out there talking about limiting legal immigration... while your boy wants to massively increase it.

Anonymous Nathanael August 12, 2015 4:22 PM  

Well when Santorum is polling at 25% let me know, and then we can talk about his desire to start WWIII with Iran.

Blogger August August 12, 2015 4:23 PM  

Josh,

Your non-answers are quite informative- about you. Unfortunately, they are not useful for anything else.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 4:23 PM  

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/08/11/donald-trump-is-planned-parenthood-s-favorite-republican.html

Planned Parenthood applauded Trump’s remarks.

“Donald Trump seems to have realized that banning all abortions, shutting down the government, and defunding Planned Parenthood are extreme positions that are way too far outside the mainstream for even him to take,” said spokesman Eric Ferrero in a statement.

Anonymous MemeMurderer August 12, 2015 4:23 PM  

Larry is a #Cuckservative.

Don't believe me?

Just ask him about it on Twitter. He will squee "RACISTRACISTNAZI BLOCK" faster than a shitlib SJW.

As a bonus, Larry will also tell you his "brown skin" is better than your white skin.

Larry and Nick Searcy should be shipped back to Africa.

Blogger Josh August 12, 2015 4:24 PM  

Your non-answers are quite informative- about you. Unfortunately, they are not useful for anything else.

What have I not answered?

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