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Friday, September 25, 2015

Immigration and new job creation

This is why you can't trust one single thing the media says about immigration. Or, for that matter, economics. First, consider the assertions made in a ThinkProgress article attacking Bernie Sanders's moderate position on immigration. I've emphasized the two of interest.
Sanders’ position on immigration has been called “complicated” and he has been criticized by immigration activists for supporting the idea that immigrants coming to the U.S. are taking jobs and hurting the economy, a theory that has been proven incorrect. Both of his leading Democratic challengers, Hillary Clinton and Martin O’Malley, have recognized that new immigrants coming to the country actually boost the economy. But Sanders continues to align himself more closely with Democratic positions of the past.

“I frankly do not believe that we should be bringing in significant numbers of unskilled to workers to compete with [unemployed] kids,” Sanders said. “I want to see these kids get jobs.”

Studies have shown that immigrants actually create jobs for American workers. Researchers recently found that each new immigrant has produced about 1.2 new jobs in the U.S., most of which have gone to native-born workers. And according to the Atlantic, an influx in immigration can cause non-tradable professions — jobs like hospitality and construction that cannot be outsourced — to see a wage increase because the demand for goods and services grows with the expanding population.
Sounds pretty conclusive, doesn't it? The "theory" that immigrants are taking jobs and hurting the economy has been "proven incorrect". Not only that, but "studies have shown" that each and every new immigrant creates 1.2 new jobs!

Second, let's go and look at the study that provided the basis for these assertions, "Are Immigrants a Shot in the Arm for the Local Economy?", published in April 2015:
Most research on the effects of immigration focuses on the effects of immigrants as adding to the supply of labor. By contrast, this paper studies the effects of immigrants on local labor demand, due to the increase in consumer demand for local services created by immigrants. This effect can attenuate downward pressure from immigrants on non-immigrants' wages, and also benefit non-immigrants by increasing the variety of local services available. For this reason, immigrants can raise native workers' real wages, and each immigrant could create more than one job. Using US Census data from 1980 to 2000, we find considerable evidence for these effects: Each immigrant creates 1.2 local jobs for local workers, most of them going to native workers, and 62% of these jobs are in non-traded services. Immigrants appear to raise local non-tradables sector wages and to attract native-born workers from elsewhere in the country. Overall, it appears that local workers benefit from the arrival of more immigrants.
Now, to anyone who pays attention to economics, those dates should ring a bell. 1980 to 2000... just happens to closely coincide with the dates of one of the largest debt-funded economic expansions in world history. Not only that, but that period also precedes the U.S. interventions in Afghanistan and Iraq which led to the usual influx of "refugees" from those and other countries, such as Somalia, where U.S. forces were active. From 1980 to 2000, there were 841,149 annual immigrants, 23 percent fewer than the average in the subsequent 15 years.

Not counting undocumented workers, the U.S. has been "strengthened" by adding an average of 1,090,520 legal immigrants annually, which, when combined with the reports of the study, means that from 2000 to 2015, immigrants should have created 19.6 million new jobs for native workers in addition to supplying approximately 10.6 million new jobs themselves. (The latter must be the case due to the new jobs reportedly going to native workers and is a conservative estimate based on the EPR). This amounts to a total of 30.2 million new jobs created by immigration since 2000.

Now let's look at the numbers from 2000 to 2015. In January 2000, the working age population of the United States was 178,259,050 and the Employment-Population Ratio was 64.6, meaning there were 115,155,346 jobs. Therefore, according to the NBER model, the beneficial effects of immigration are such that after 15 more years of it there should be 145,355,346 jobs in 2015.

In March 2015 the working age population had grown by nearly 15 million to 204,026,416, which is in line with the 10.6 million new immigrant workers, but population grew to nearly 320 million and the EPR fell to 59.3.That works out to 120,987,665 jobs, which is a mere 24,367,681 fewer jobs than the NBER model predicted. From 2000 to 2015, 16.4 million new immigrants have created a grand total of 5,832,319 new jobs, which means that either a) over 10 million native Americans have lost their jobs to immigrant labor or b) over two-thirds of the new immigrants are collecting welfare. Either way, these 16.4 million immigrants have not been a boost to the economy.

I should note that it would have been just as easy to use GDP and wage statistics to disprove some of the other assertions in the first article, but it should suffice to point out that the reason the Federal Reserve has maintained a zero interest rate policy for the last five years is to compensate for insufficient demand, thereby proving that the demand for goods and services has not grown in line with the expanding population.

The facts are absolutely clear: immigrants do NOT create new jobs for native workers and they do not boost the economy.

Labels:

57 Comments:

Blogger James Dixon September 25, 2015 6:08 AM  

> The facts are absolutely clear: immigrants do NOT create new jobs for native workers, they do not boost the economy.

Well, they do create a few jobs. Those immigrants aren't going to get to the local welfare offices and voting booths all by themselves, now are they? Someone has to show them how to sign up for the government gravy train and how to vote a straight Democratic ticket to make sure it continues.

Blogger Cataline Sergius September 25, 2015 6:12 AM  

Gee I don't know, it still says "proven incorrect" and "studies have shown" That sounds awful science to me.

The real question isn't even, how can they believe it's possible for people with nothing with a hobo's bindle to generate capital?

The real question is, how can they even make themselves feelthat this is even possible?

Blogger Markku September 25, 2015 6:21 AM  

That is not dead which can eternal lie, but you can't fault the SJW's for not goddamn trying.

OpenID basementhomebrewer September 25, 2015 6:23 AM  

This has always annoyed me. Someone throws out some stats and people blindly accept them without questioning the underlying factors.

Libertarians seem especially susceptible to this tactic. They for the most part believe that voter fraud is very rare because that is what the stats show. They discount that the stats are built on an enforcement method that requires the guilty voluntarily tell you they are guilty.

Blogger Rantor September 25, 2015 6:38 AM  

But the computer model conforms to the narrative, it must be right?!? I mean the government and media tell us we are at full employment. Something must be wrong with those government numbers... I mean, well, ummm. oh my head hurts.

Just glad we got full employment and immigrants are good for us;-)

Blogger Michael Maier September 25, 2015 6:52 AM  

I dunno... the huge Little Mexico I found by accident last weekend in Fort Wayne, Indiana looks to be doing great. How can the Surly Oompa-Loompas be anything but good for our country?

OpenID simplytimothy September 25, 2015 6:58 AM  

Researchers recently found that ...

Thank you for doing that work. It sounds trivial (it is basic) but you noticing the dates of the study taught me something.

Well done and thanks again.

Blogger Jazz Mandolin September 25, 2015 7:03 AM  

Ok I am Canadian and would dearly love to live in the US but I can't go. Should I try to the US by first flying to Mexico and there wading across the Rio Grande?

Blogger Subversive Saint #249 September 25, 2015 7:16 AM  

It works for a lot of folks. I'm thinking your gonna want to tan up a bit before making the crossing...

Oh and learn a few of those Spanish words.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 25, 2015 7:19 AM  

The Obama years are one huge Jim Jones cult, they will lie, they of course will always lie and double down on their lies when caught.

But the weakness in this cult is each individual and that person's totally fucked up brain chemistry (see AC's work)

But then again conservatives will bypass these weaklings to attack the messiah with logic and reason mainly to impress other conservatives and climb up the conservative fund raising racket. Mesiahman laughs at such haughtiness while his cult screams "racist, sexist, and homophobic" and then we get cucks. Yeah cucks

Blogger Nate September 25, 2015 7:22 AM  

Jesus... Even their science is rhetoric.

Blogger McChuck September 25, 2015 7:22 AM  

You're obviously just a hating hater who hates. How dare you use facts and logic to address a topic that clearly should be subject to feelz? The scientist that we paid to produce the results we wanted has spoken, and now the science is settled and the subject is closed!
* point and shriek * Unclean! He's a witch!
Bigot! Nativist! Racist! Xenophobe!
(What? He's mestizo?) Uncle Tom! Self-hater!

Blogger VD September 25, 2015 7:24 AM  

Jesus... Even their science is rhetoric.

Pretty much, yeah.

Blogger Gaiseric ! September 25, 2015 7:44 AM  

Ok I am Canadian and would dearly love to live in the US but I can't go. Should I try to the US by first flying to Mexico and there wading across the Rio Grande?

I dunno. Are you kinda swarthy looking?

Blogger VD September 25, 2015 7:47 AM  

Actually, I'm being rather cruel to them because I strongly suspect the numbers don't say what the idiot reporter thought it said. The real reported number is probably 1.2 jobs per immigrant INCLUDING the immigrant's own job. The benefit to the native worker is the .2, which since the immigrant takes an existing job, means that the negative effect to the native worker is -.8.

Since they don't want to come out and say that, they tried to finesse it, but since they don't understand how economic statistics work, they blew an even larger hole in their pro-immigration case.

Blogger Plump Pleasant Plumber September 25, 2015 7:50 AM  

Here at ground zero in Texas, illegals (mostly Mexican) have taken over most manual labor. I speak fluent Spanish, and I was speaking to a Mexican painter who lamented that he would never get a good price because of the cheap illegals. There are very few whites in construction anymore.

You see, I've learned that I can't do anything about it. It's worrisome, but I'm 59 years old. The only whites I see are generally all tatted up, and act like drug addicts. Mexicans will work hard, plain fact. And their women are actually women, raising kids and taking care of the house. As Vox says, the future belongs to those who show up.

Blogger Conscientia Republicae September 25, 2015 7:50 AM  

The Republican Liberty Caucus falls right into this line of thinking. They love to tell me how immigrants boost the economy and create jobs. It's almost verbatim from what this article is saying.

Blogger Conscientia Republicae September 25, 2015 7:54 AM  

Tiny Tim,

Are you back as the Plump Pleasant Plumber?

Blogger Alexander Thompson September 25, 2015 7:54 AM  

So every immigrant creates a barrista job. Wow I'm convinced. Go Rub...

Blogger hightecrebel September 25, 2015 8:03 AM  

They also ended their sample right before the dotcom bubble burst, so the bias in sample choice should be even more obvious

Blogger Plump Pleasant Plumber September 25, 2015 8:04 AM  

I ain't Tiny Tim......I am, and have always been the rotund one. I definitely am against illegal immigration. Plain fact. But the facts here on the ground are stark.....for instance, when I go into a local plumbing supply house, most of the helpers are Hispanic. One local company apparently hires tatted up ex convicts, but I digress. You see, it's all related to birthrate. Plain to see, if things keep going the way they are, white folks are fading away. Feminism is to blame, imo.

So, no enforcement at the borders......a clear sign of the death of a nation.

Blogger Cail Corishev September 25, 2015 8:13 AM  

a theory that has been proven incorrect.

The looters in Atlas Shrugged are always saying things like, "It has been proven that...." and, "It has been generally conceded by all enlightened people that...." These people can't even out-lie fictional characters.

Blogger MendoScot September 25, 2015 8:15 AM  

Now, Vox, you’re not correcting for Climate Change. Since there has been a dramatic and undeniable increase in temperature since 1998, all those extra jobs obviously evaporated.

See? It is science!

Blogger Michael O'Duibhir September 25, 2015 8:30 AM  

It's clear to me that the real purpose of the 1965 Immigration Act was to undermine the sovereignty of the US. Thank you Jacob Javits, et al. It's also clear to me that Bernie Sanders--of the same ilk as Javits--is insincere in his supposed opposition to immigration.

Blogger Gaiseric ! September 25, 2015 8:44 AM  

PPP, shut up. Take your defeatist "might as well lie back and try to enjoy it" attitude somewhere else.

Blogger Bill September 25, 2015 8:46 AM  

From Baltimore (Sanctuary City), check out this:

Free Stuff For Immigrants! Screw Veterans!

Provides refugee resettlement and case management services, including orientation, housing, health and social services support, employment and legal assistance, and language instruction.

This contains some handy maps, showing which areas to move into if you value some particular kind of diversity.
All Our Resources Are For the Vibrant Community!! Screw Natives!

Blogger VFM 188 September 25, 2015 8:48 AM  

The Obama years are one huge Jim Jones cult.

Western Civilization appears to be one huge suicide cult. There's an extraordinary article today at Breitbart about the uncanny resemblance between the events in The Camp of the Saints and today's headlines.

Blogger Conscientia Republicae September 25, 2015 8:49 AM  

Tiny Tim,

Are you back as the Plump Pleasant Plumber?

Blogger Michael O'Duibhir September 25, 2015 9:01 AM  

"Free stuff for immigrants! Screw veterans!"

It's being hosted by Baltimore's Intercultural Counseling Connection which, in turn, is funded by (George Soros') Open Society Institute-Baltimore Community Fellowship Grant, the Jacob and Hilda Blaustein Foundation, and the Leonard and Helen R. Stulman Charitable Foundation. Interesting, no?

Blogger Nate September 25, 2015 9:07 AM  

"Exactly how can this be stopped? "

it is trivially easy to stop it. All it takes is even starting the process of dealing with it.

Blogger VD September 25, 2015 9:11 AM  

Go away, Plump Pleasant Plumber. Your "all is lost" comments are not welcome here.

Blogger Aeoli Pera September 25, 2015 9:17 AM  

Great post. I know it probably seemed easy from Vox's perspective, but economic expertise combined with honesty is a scarce good.

Blogger Sage Klubb September 25, 2015 9:24 AM  

I'm accustomed to ThinkProgress lying as a matter of course. I mean, even moreso than most media, and that's saying something. Every time I'm directed to one of their articles, I find a story that not so much includes patent falsehoods, but is squarely built upon them. It is an aggressive propaganda mill, and it drives me nuts that I know folks who actually trust them as a *superior* news source. They are *superior* because they are better at lying in order to say the things they want to hear.

Blogger Cataline Sergius September 25, 2015 9:35 AM  

I know we aren't there yet. I am perfectly aware of that. But I think we aren't that far from robotics being able to take over a significant portion of manual labor. Yes to include field hand stuff.

There simply won't be a need for migrant workers once that comes on line. The only purpose they will serve then will be as Democrat Capite Censi. Which of course is why the Democrats want them here as they are reproducing at extinction level themselves. Just look at San Francisco's birth rate Vs Omaha's.

Whites are reproducing in this country. It's just the wrong ones doing it so far as the left is concerned.

Blogger U PC BRO? September 25, 2015 9:39 AM  

Immigrants have created plenty of jobs...for Border Patrol, cops, prison guards, lawyers, judges, emergency room staff, welfare workers, CPS, etc.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 25, 2015 10:24 AM  

@8 Jazz Mandolin
Ok I am Canadian and would dearly love to live in the US but I can't go. Should I try to the US by first flying to Mexico and there wading across the Rio Grande?
---
Try and reenter at one of the smaller border crossings. Arrive and as you look through the small area, you will find one sign in English. It says "No Bullshit". Buy a sombrero from the guy.
If you are brave, get some dental work done for $5. Avoid those that are offering you 5 for 1 drinks and dinner. Then, when going through the border crossing identify as a Canexican.
Works every time, so I hear.

Blogger Stilicho #0066 September 25, 2015 10:24 AM  

@ 16, Vox, that was my initial suspicion as well: the immigrant takes your job and you're left with two tenths of a job.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 25, 2015 10:31 AM  

@17 Plump Pleasant Plumber

The only whites I see are generally all tatted up, and act like drug addicts.
---

I've been seeing a few of these type losers also. The ones I've seen wear their caps with a wigger tilt to it. Somewhere, the ghost of Obi Wan says "These ain't the white boys u r looking 4".

Blogger Nate September 25, 2015 10:45 AM  

"Go away, Plump Pleasant Plumber. Your "all is lost" comments are not welcome here."

Peak Cuck.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 25, 2015 10:49 AM  

@35 Cataline Sergius
I know we aren't there yet. I am perfectly aware of that. But I think we aren't that far from robotics being able to take over a significant portion of manual labor.
---

You mean like this?

Blogger YIH September 25, 2015 10:58 AM  

@36 U PC Bro?
Immigrants have created plenty of jobs...for Border Patrol, cops, prison guards, lawyers, judges, emergency room staff, welfare workers, CPS, etc.
New DHS Program Pairs Illegal Immigrants with Social Workers
No, seriously:
“The [Family Case Management Program] will pilot a new alternative to detention initiative that uses case managers to ensure participants comply with immigration obligations while providing access to holistic community based services tailored to the individual families’ needs,”
The new program has been billed as a way to ensure released illegal immigrant families appear for their immigration court dates.

NOT from a hoax/joke site.

Blogger Alexander September 25, 2015 11:05 AM  

Peasant logic would simply point out that jobs are not magically made by people crossing a political boundary. There is no logical reason why if someone steps over that line they produce 1.2 jobs regardless of who they are, then someone who stayed on his side of the line wouldn't also produce 1.2 jobs.

Or for that matter why every Mexican who left Mexico wasn't taking with him 1.2 jobs...

So every country in the world should have 20% more jobs available than it has population, no matter its size or the development of its human capital.

Peasant says that smells like bullshit.

Blogger Quadko September 25, 2015 11:06 AM  

I've thought about what might change moving the US Capitol to, say, Denver (so it isn't near a border); but hadn't considered somewhere in south Texas before. Impossible, but an interesting though experiment. Part of it is theorizing that Washington's focus on African Americans is because of the high black population in DC bringing it to constant attention of government officials and employees; would exchanging that for an environment of Mexican and Latino people change their focus?

Blogger Alexander September 25, 2015 11:08 AM  

@45. Why on earth would we want that.

If Congressional largess is directly correlated with who they see in the street, we ought to move the capital to Portland (either one).

Blogger YIH September 25, 2015 11:13 AM  

''Immigrants create jobs''
Sounds like classic 'broken window fallacy' to me.

Blogger OddRob September 25, 2015 11:14 AM  

Interestingly, in 2014 this same paper found that each immigrant creates 2 local jobs with 80% in the "non-tradable" services between 1990-2000.

http://people.virginia.edu/~jem6x/hong%20mclaren%20022014.pdf

OpenID Steve September 25, 2015 11:29 AM  

''Immigrants create jobs''

more social workers to hand out free benefits-bgs

Blogger daddynichol September 25, 2015 11:31 AM  

Why not suggest that those seeking to invade the US stay in Mexico and create those 1.2 jobs there? Think of the economic boon! It simply isn't right that the US should be the only beneficiary of that stupendous economic model. To think otherwise would be racist!

Blogger epobirs September 25, 2015 11:43 AM  

I can see how the rationalizations might work. If there is an increase of X in the number of shoppers at the local supermarket, they'll add Y number of workers to keep up with the load.

But how much of that shopping is being done with money extracted from taxpayers or lumped into the mountainous debt, in the form of entitlement transfers? Other stats indicate the use of welfare programs runs quite high among immigrants, a very different situation from when my grandfather left a village near Kiev, spent two years working his across Europe to catch a boat and end up here in the 1910s.

So the question remains, what real economic growth can be tied to an uncontrolled influx of foreign peasants?

Blogger clk September 25, 2015 12:02 PM  

Maybe it means the increase in low cost immigrants allows them to get more workers for a lower cost. If we say that with immigration there are 1 + 1.2 = 2.2 more jobs.. if you fix the total labor cost means evryone gets 40% of their former pay.

Blogger Quadko September 25, 2015 12:13 PM  

@46 Alexander
I'm not saying we want it, just that it's an interesting thought experiment. Why does the government do what it does, and how would that be affected differently. Would moving it change their focus? It certainly wouldn't correct their corruption, but what would it change? No longer near New York City? Move them near Hollywood? Portland (either OR or ME), sure.

But make it less theoretical: what if Carlos Slim successfully paid D.C. residents to move elsewhere, and paid people following his lead (Latinos or Swedes, whatever) to move into D.C. in their place? Would that alter government behavior if the city culture changed?

That's wandering off topic further, but to bring it back: what if the only allowed immigrant/refugee camps were in DC, and there was a jobs program for waiters and baristas and dry cleaning around Capitol Hill?

Blogger Cail Corishev September 25, 2015 1:12 PM  

Alexander,

Yes, by the logic of open borders proponents, two nations could both increase their jobs as much as double by exchanging populations.

Blogger Cail Corishev September 25, 2015 1:59 PM  

Maybe it means the increase in low cost immigrants allows them to get more workers for a lower cost.

True, it creates more jobs because the American who used to raise a family working at a slaughterhouse or mudding drywall now needs 2.5 jobs -- and his wife needs one too.

Blogger Unknown September 25, 2015 3:39 PM  

The problem with know nothing journalist majors is that they, you know, don't know anything. But that doesn't stop them.

Blogger VD September 25, 2015 7:28 PM  

Okay, I was wrong. I read the study. "Each immigrant creates 2 local jobs, and 80% of these jobs are in non-traded services." The whole thing is based on a completely hypothetical mathematical model to which a limited amount of Census data is applied. Basically, they studied a few trees then made a blanket conclusion about the forest AND NEVER BOTHERED TO LOOK AT THE ACTUAL FOREST to see if they were correct.

Blogger VD September 25, 2015 7:30 PM  

More lunacy: "Consistent with our prediction, the impacts of immigration on employment growth have become greater as the estimates imply that each new immigrant is predicted to add 2.5 new jobs (1.9 for native workers) to a city in which he or she settles."

It's insane and it doesn't even come close to holding up.

Blogger SciVo September 26, 2015 1:39 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

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