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Sunday, November 01, 2015

Why Ted Cruz needs Trump

This analysis of the GOPe road map suggests that every Republican who isn't part of the Republican Establishment should be supporting Donald Trump, as he may be the only thing standing in the way of a third Bush coronation.
The pathway the RNC/GOPe constructed to elect Jeb Bush specifically was designed to eliminate/defeat Ted Cruz.

Stop.  And re-read this reality:

    The GOPe road map was specifically and intentionally created by scheme and construct, to intentionally block any possibility for Ted Cruz to achieve 2016 presidential victory.

As a direct and factual outcome there is nothing Ted Cruz can do to overcome the structural dynamics currently in place which block any possibility of him achieving electoral victory.  Period.

We have laid out the rules, laid out the road-map, and laid out the primary contests -REPEATEDLY- and we continued to asked anyone who finds themselves refusing this reality to outline a path for Cruz victory.

Unfortunately, it simply does not exist.

The RNC rules are now in place; the RNC primary dates are now all confirmed; the RNC delegate distributions all now set in stone;  and there’s enough key state polling data for anyone to use who wants to prove this false.

We have studied this road-map intensely.  We have explored the district-by-district level possibilities within each of the pre-March 16th 2016 states a hundred different ways, the numbers for anyone other than Trump just don’t add up.

The GOPe road-map was specifically created to block Ted Cruz, or anyone like Ted Cruz, from achieving victory.

Team Jeb is: Rubio, Fiorina, Christie, Huckabee, Kasich, Perry, Graham, Pataki and Gilmore. (10 establishment candidates all part of the RNC/GOPe machine)  We have outlined it all HERE.

If, for the sake of intellectual exercise, you remove Donald Trump from the race and apportion his supporters in a reasonable manner, what you will find is that the GOPe road map kicks back into play – and no non-jeb is able to pull enough support to defeat Jeb.

Remove Trump and Ben Carson becomes Herman Cain 2012; Cruz becomes Gingrich, Jeb replaces Romney and the 2016 outcome becomes 2012 ground-hog day.  Just as designed.

Here’s the kicker…. As previously mentioned, Ted Cruz is a smart guy, and therefore Ted Cruz also is aware of this.

Ted Cruz is fully aware of this – he picked up on it months ago.
That explains why Jeb still hasn't dropped out despite the fact that his campaign is practically road kill after his inept debate performances. In other words, it isn't Trump who is Jeb's stalking horse, it is all the other candidates except Cruz.

So Cruz needs Trump to knock Jeb out of the race in order to have a chance himself. Or he might team up with Trump and offer a Trump-Cruz ticket, which is something that a lot of conservatives could live with. If I were in Cruz's shoes, the latter is something I would be looking very hard at right now.

Labels:

106 Comments:

Blogger White Knight Leo #0368 November 01, 2015 7:00 AM  

This.... is a point I hadn't considered. I really, really want Cruz to win, and I'd rather see Trump go to the wayside, because he's much further to the Left than Jeb is on every other issue than immigration. But if Trump as VP is the price of Cruz winning, I can live with that. And after his performance in the debate, I'm now convinced that Jeb is not only a sinking stone, he's also really bad for our side.

Blogger Wayne November 01, 2015 7:12 AM  

No group of people deserve a plan backfiring more than the GOP establishment. The intended consequence of the plan is the GOP base voters have no where to go for a candidate except Jeb! or one of the other chosen few. Enter candidate Trump and in a traditional campaign season, he would be an after thought in a strong field of candidates. This explodes the plan by revealing that most of the chosen candidates look weak next to Trump and would be trounced by a unified Democrat party determined to stay in power even if it means electing Hillary Clinton as the next POTUS. I can hear all of the consultant class in Washington blaming the stupid GOP base voters for staying home in record numbers as a protest against the choice they have been given for yet another election cycle. The truth is that the GOP plan has put the base voters in a position where they feel there is nothing to lose by voting for Trump. And vote for Trump they will. The GOP has treated their base with disdain for 20 years; karma has finally caught with them.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 01, 2015 7:13 AM  

Yep. It's way too soon to assume Jeb is done. (I think it's good to talk as if Jeb is done to spread the idea that he's a loser, but that's not the same thing as believing it ourselves.)

I'll say what I said a few weeks ago: Jeb is still the presumptive candidate, and will be until he bows out and throws his support to someone else. If you imagine that happening, and think about whom in this bunch he would support and what that would be like, I think you'll realize how unlikely it is -- because he's still a "better" candidate than any of them by dint of money and insider support.

Jeb was always the appointed candidate, and the donors already gave him their money. There's no reason to think they've given up on him. They can put him right back on top with a couple of primary wins, if they can get Trump out of the way.

Blogger jla November 01, 2015 7:14 AM  

They did the same thing last time to RP. In the debates every time they ask RP a question, one of the bottom feeders would get the opportunity to respond with what appeared to be a bad parody of RP. I doubt that this had any effect of splitting his base, but to those trying to form an opinion, RP ideas looked more extreme and subconsciously associated with those who didn't stand a chance.

Blogger Ron November 01, 2015 7:19 AM  

There is no world in which Trump plays second fiddle to Cruz or anyone else.

Blogger Phillip George November 01, 2015 7:24 AM  

You, Steve Quayle, Rick Wiles, Prisonplanet, Beforeitsnews, Breitbart London, Brother Nathanael are where I go for news. By far the comments section here are the most entertaining, erudite, lyrical, educated. Perhaps not on every topic but many.
The above narrative all presupposes business as usual - and maybe it will be. But a week is a long time in politics and twenty four hours is a long time in war. The Metrojet downing over Sinai isn't business as usual. It's personal and close to home. A no fly zone over Syria isn't business as usual. A Pope at the Joint sitting and General Assembly isn't business as usual. The Metrojet, up the ante, might be an explanation of why Putin seems to be a body double so often. War games are all live ammunition now. 2016 won't be business as usual. Maybe 48 hours and politics won't look anything like it does today.

For all its faultd Russia occupies the moral high ground now. God isn't on America's side in Syria. And this isn't what the Sinai was created for. Revolving doors and roundabouts in Washington isn't going to fix this. An opinion to the wind.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling November 01, 2015 7:27 AM  

Thoughts before analyzing the data:

The Conservative Treehouse is one of those sites I'd like to trust, but can't after its gotten so many other things wrong. That could include this analysis, but they've supplied the data necessary to do an independent analysis. Or, if you're not committed to doing anything other than voting or caucusing during the primary period, that is, you're not going to contribute money, you can just wait and see what happens.

We were very suspicious of the changes Boehner gaveled through in the 2012 convention, although viewing this historically, a return to "smoke filled rooms" wouldn't necessarily be all bad, if it were't for the fact that the GOPe is so bad.

Such clever schemes have a way of falling apart when they hit reality; ¡Jeb! makes Romney look like the second coming of Reagan, it's hard to express how bad he is even before accounting for him being a Bush. Pulling him across the nominating process finish line could be an extinction level event for the GOPe.

If "Ted Cruz is fully aware of this", he could harbor hopes it won't succeed. In a separate, much less fine grained analysis I've read but can't find right now, and which wouldn't have taken into account the rules changes, it was noted that successful candidates get both big and small money. Which positions Cruz well, compared to Carson who is't getting big money, and ¡Jeb! who isn't getting small money, with Trump being a wild card since he doesn't need to play either game.

Or he might note that most successful Republican candidates run an unsuccessful nominating campaign before succeeding, or he could hope to be Trump's VP, or if the GOPe succeeds in destroying the party at the national level, he'l be well placed to help pick up the pieces.

And if the process is so wired to pick ¡Jeb!, to not pick someone like Cruz, in what fashion does it nonetheless allow Trump to win?

About the only thing I know is that all hell will break loose if ¡Jeb! is nominated in a way so blatant the base walks away, even if it means Hillary becomes president. Well, I suppose especially if Hillary becomes president.

Anonymous karsten November 01, 2015 7:35 AM  

"There is no world in which Trump plays second fiddle to Cruz or anyone else."

Exactly.

There is no other worthwhile GOP candidate than Trump. Cruz is an Israeli Firster.

Ann Coulter is right about a great deal, but she is especially right about this: there is only one issue in this election: immigration. And only Trump has any intention of curbing it.

The only way in which Trump should be challenged is if there were a candidate that were even more vocal about immigration.

The Trump-Sessions ticket is the one we need.

The idea that Trump, leading everywhere, would be the VP on any ticket rather than the top of the ticket, is ludicrious.

Anonymous karsten November 01, 2015 7:40 AM  

I might add that Trump is the only reason anyone on the alt right should be paying any attention to the election at all.

The rest are all just the puppets of their ((((donors)))) and will continue white dispossession.

Trump is the only one who might -- might -- not. He's the closest that we have to an alt-right candidate. No one else registers. The others are all just Cuckservatives.

Blogger VD November 01, 2015 7:50 AM  

But if Trump as VP is the price of Cruz winning, I can live with that.

You have it backwards. Cruz's winning play is to back Trump and become his VP and political heir.

Blogger napari November 01, 2015 7:51 AM  

Forbes- same topic
Dramatic, Little Known GOP Rule Change Takes Choice Of Presidential Candidate Away From Rank And File Republicans And Hands It To Party Elite
http://www.forbes.com/sites/rickungar/2014/04/07/dramatic-little-known-gop-rule-change-takes-choice-of-presidential-candidate-away-from-rank-and-file-republicans-and-hands-it-to-party-elite/

Anonymous LurkingPuppy November 01, 2015 7:53 AM  

offer a Trump-Cruz ticket,

Interesting. And note that the Vice President can preside over the Senate whenever he wants to, regardless of whom the senators elect as president pro tempore of the Senate. (Except during (some?) impeachment trials.)

Blogger Shimshon November 01, 2015 7:54 AM  

Cruz is 44. If this is true, and knowing what kind of backstabbing schemers inhabit the political establishment, and a little of how sausage is made (having seen the viciousness directed against Ron Paul in 2008 and 2012), it rings quite true, it would make sense for him to drop out, and make a play for Trump/Cruz.

Blogger Gordon November 01, 2015 8:01 AM  

@3: Jeb has been *promised* the money, but that's not the same as having it. The donors have been burned before and nowadays they dole it out on a schedule. If Jeb really does look toasty, they can reallocated it to another candidate.

I don't have time to dig down and do my own analysis, so I'm assuming the linked post is accurate. It wouldn't be the first time that a candidate has analyzed the rules and figured out a way to win despite what seem to be long odds. Jimmy Carter and his crew studied the changes to the Dem nominating rules forced through by the McGovernites, and realized that a candidate that did well in Iowa would dominate the news thereafter. They had no money, but they had enough to spend every waking moment crisscrossing Iowa, and it worked.

Obama and his team figured out how to game the states that had caucus systems. They pulled it off, cheating where necessary, and by February 2008 had the nomination in hand. Hillary hung in through May, hoping BHO would step on his dick, but he didn't, and even if he had, the press were in his pocket. But Hillary knew months before she dropped out that she couldn't win.

Blogger Elocutioner #0226 November 01, 2015 8:03 AM  

They've done their analysis, they've posted their sources, they've confirmed a number of 'tripwires' and seem to be pretty on top of this election. Their analysis certainly does explain why all these losers polling under 3% are sticking around - the 'splitter' strategy. If Trump were knocked out of the race things would snap back into place.

About the only surprising thing so far was how fast Bush face planted and Rubio pounced.

And Trump has retweeted them a number of times so it's doubtful he's not at least aware of the analysis.

If they're right, and so far everything they've reported seems to support it, then this is a $1B+ coordinated media campaign to keep power and even if Cruz or Carson are clued into it they're still going to be at the whims of their donors. And the billionaires oddly seem to be buying into the pro-amnesty team Bush (like Rubio.)

And Trump is going after the superpacs and the billionaire donors and putting them on notice. Who else is calling out the money men? Where are those folks who decry "too much money in politics" now?

I think Trump is very smart, media savvy, knows the playing field (remember - this is not his first foray), and is playing the long game here.

Blogger Salt November 01, 2015 8:10 AM  

Problem with Trump is he'd have to turn over his dealings to someone and stay in the blind. I find that problematic for one like Trump.

Blogger Stilicho #0066 November 01, 2015 8:12 AM  

Trump-Cruz has been in place at lest informally since before the first debate. Their not so secret meeting and subsequent polite camaraderie make it evident they are planning the Trump-Cruz ticket. Cruz is a smart guy and you don't need polling data to recognize the GOP establishment pattern of backing Bush and putting a lot of Bush mini-me's on the ballot to split the base. I expect the original plan was for a Bush-Rubio ticket.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 01, 2015 8:12 AM  

Cruz's best hope was always being Jeb's VP, and there's no guarantee he could have gotten that much. Being Trump's VP would be a great result for him.

Such clever schemes have a way of falling apart when they hit reality; ¡Jeb! makes Romney look like the second coming of Reagan, it's hard to express how bad he is even before accounting for him being a Bush. Pulling him across the nominating process finish line could be an extinction level event for the GOPe.

True, but they don't care. That's why so much analysis breaks down: it assumes they're trying to win. They'd like to win, but winning is useless to them if they don't win with the right guy who is beholden to the right people. Yeah, Jeb is a terrible candidate. So was Romney. So was McCain. So was GWB (though it wasn't quite as obvious with him from the start). If these people had had their preference, Reagan never would have been the candidate.

GOP politics is a bit like the movie The Color of Money. Winning or losing the tournament is mostly for show; it's really about the deals you're able to work in the back rooms while it's going on.

Blogger Doom November 01, 2015 8:17 AM  

Yep.

It is quite entertaining. Especially when you realize Trump really was probably coached into it by Billy Boy (C.). They thought he would be a spoiler. I think even Trump may have considered it, may still be considering it. Then again, to be president, even if you have do, or at least promise, actual conservative pledges... It might be worth it. Two terms would require fulfilling some of those pledges.

My deal is, if Trump starts barking wrong, to go for Cruz. Cruz is not my favorite, I don't trust him or Trump all that much, just that tiny much more than most other candidates. Still, probably won't vote. I am not sure any of this is for reals anymore, or even if my vote is actually counted... as a general rule. I know when politicians get to D.C. they put us on their ignore list.

Politics is my fantasy sports. You can keep the even more broken real sports. And I'll ignore the 'real' politics.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 01, 2015 8:18 AM  

Gordon, my understanding is that Jeb was given a large bankroll early, before he officially entered the race and the campaign finance restrictions and reporting requirements kicked in. That's why we only have estimates and rumors as to how much each candidate has -- they didn't have to report those pre-campaign donations. I assumed that meant they actually had the money, though I suppose I should never assume when it comes to political loopholes.

But assuming you're right, those promises still tell us whom they preferred from the start, before even seeing how he would do on the campaign. They didn't need to see him debate or give speeches, and they didn't need to wait and see how he would poll. Jeb was their choice, for reasons that make sense to them. They won't give him up if they don't have to, and they don't have to yet.

Blogger Hammerli280 November 01, 2015 8:19 AM  

First, I think Bush is finished. He went after Rubio in the debate because the Plutocrat wing of the GOP is shifting to Rubio as the more viable option.

Second, I think Cruz realized about two months ago that Trump was blasting a path through the Plutocrat wing of the party. Note that Cruz and Trump have not taken potshots at each other. Have appeared on the same stage. I would not be surprised if they had a quiet agreement to share the ticket already.

Blogger ScuzzaMan November 01, 2015 8:19 AM  

"it would make sense for him to drop out, and make a play for Trump/Cruz."

But teh other way around: make the play, and only drop out when it is successful. Staying in is his bargaining chip.

OpenID elijahrhodes November 01, 2015 8:22 AM  

Everyone needs to be reading Conservative Treehouse. They are shedding a giant spotlight on just how rigged and manipulated the system is, and just how corrupt and treasonous the GOP is. Anyone who still believes there is a difference between the Democrats and Republicans is a fool. Ask yourself why Obama said to Boehner "I'm going to miss you, man". You only say that to a political ally.

Blogger Dave November 01, 2015 8:24 AM  

Leo you make me think Vox should have a VFM eligibility test just like there should be voting eligibility test.

Anonymous Godfrey November 01, 2015 8:35 AM  

Isn't Cruz a Zionist? He seems to be an "Israel First" candidate.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 01, 2015 8:36 AM  

?Jeb! is not the presumed candidate any more. The man is polling around 0.5%. Nobody is supporting that idiot except for the trust-fund-kiddies who are his financial support base.

Blogger Patrick November 01, 2015 8:37 AM  

@21 But is Rubio in fact a viable option? I can't see it. His time in the Senate has been bad (when he bothers to show up). He couldn't even manage his personal finances. Every time he opens his mouth vacuous speechifying comes out. The guy's a dimwit. If Bush stays in then eventually Rubio's numbers will go down and Bush will benefit.

Anonymous Godfrey November 01, 2015 8:41 AM  

Jeb isn't going anywhere. He's not going to drop out. He'll lurk in the shadows until called upon. Remember Mc-Insane (i.e. McCain)? The GOP is notorious for working diligently to rig the process to ensure an establishment candidate. And Jeb is their chosen candidate.

Blogger Patrick November 01, 2015 8:41 AM  

I can imagine a lot of Carson's support eventually going to Rubio and later going to Jeb. Jonah Goldberg, who generally is awful, managed write something very right about how superficial Carson's support is (although that wasn't Jonah's point).
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/426317/ben-carson-black-conservative

Blogger Patrick November 01, 2015 8:43 AM  

@29 It's still amazing to me McCain was the nominee. The lesson is that hawkishness trumps everything else?

Anonymous Godfrey November 01, 2015 8:44 AM  

@28 You just described Rubio as the perfect puppet. That's exactly the type of candidate the establishment promotes. Just look at the current occupant of the position for reference.

Anonymous Godfrey November 01, 2015 8:46 AM  

@31 Short answer... yes. And that's true for both political parties.

Blogger Patrick November 01, 2015 8:48 AM  

@32 I agree he's a great puppet. Is he viable as in electable among Republicans and then later on in the general? I think No on both counts.

Blogger Jack Ward November 01, 2015 8:50 AM  

I would welcome a Trump and Cruz ticket. The GOP entrenched are truly a sorry piece of work. You would think that the aliens [the real ones, like, from off planet] are up to something. Or, the hints of psychotronic weapons that can program the human mind from across the street or continent are for real.

Or something. Maybe the false god of this world. I don't know.

Blogger Dave November 01, 2015 8:50 AM  

Cool! But i want tell you -
Hello everybody! I Davmitri, helpdesk. . I like to help people if they have any problems with cognitive dissonance, this is my calling. How can I help you?
This is true of people think their votes matter. So not true but people believe many time.

Blogger Rez Zircon November 01, 2015 8:57 AM  

Hmm. That's an interesting set of numbers....

Might the same thing be going on with the Dems as a scheme to split off everyone else and leave the otherwise-unelectable Clinton in control of the field?

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother November 01, 2015 9:02 AM  

The RNC controlled the nominating contests before the rule changes. They made those changes in 2012 at the Convention just to stamp out the last shreds of dissent. We put up a hell of a fight at the RNC and did not make it easy for them. The convention secretary actually ran from us when we were giving her the nomination paperwork to put Ron Paul into nomination.

These changes just make it easier for them.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 01, 2015 9:09 AM  

It was the 1996 primaries that ended my youthful naivete and taught me how it works. Buchanan was doing better than expected, winning in Louisiana over Gramm of neighboring Texas. Republicans didn't expect to win the general election -- Clinton's popularity was climbing back up after a couple of rough years at first, and some GOP favorites like GWB declined to run. So it was an election when the party could have gone with someone more conservative/populist who might draw some of the Perot voters back and let him blast away at the Democrats. They didn't have much to lose.

Buchanan did better than expected in Iowa, then won in New Hampshire. The next morning, I turned on the TV to see George Will and some other pundits all but give Buchanan a pat on the head and a gold star. The frame was, "Hey, that's really nice for Pat, but now it's time to focus on the real candidates and all get behind someone who can win."

I realize New Hampshire is weird, and there's no guarantee Pat would have won even with a fair chance. But they didn't give him one, and he still pulled 21% of the primary votes. Who knows how he would have done if the entire party/media apparatus hadn't treated him like an also-ran right from the start, and scared GOP voters with the usual "We'd better unite behind one guy for strength" nonsense.

And here's the kicker: I'm convinced they were happier losing with Dole than they would have been winning with Buchanan. It's the same thing here. Sure, they'd like to win with Jeb. But they'd rather lose with Jeb than win with almost anyone else. Rubio might be an acceptable substitute. Cruz, not so much. Trump? Nightmares.

Anonymous karsten November 01, 2015 9:10 AM  

"a giant spotlight on just how rigged and manipulated the system is, and just how corrupt and treasonous the GOP is."

As usual, Trump calls it correctly. Priceless tweet from him today:

Jeb's new slogan - "Jeb can fix it". I never thought of Jeb as a crook! Stupid message, the word "fix" is not a good one to use in politics!

Clever: Bush intends to "fix" (as in rig) the nomination. If anyone other than Trump gets the nod after Trump leads in polls right to the end, that (accurate) perception -- that the Cuckservative Establishment "fixed" the nomination for their paid puppet -- will remain uppermost in people's minds.

Blogger VD November 01, 2015 9:31 AM  

Leo you make me think Vox should have a VFM eligibility test just like there should be voting eligibility test.

Why do you think I require MINDLESS obedience?

Anonymous Godfrey November 01, 2015 9:32 AM  

@40 The GOP is a walking-dead zombie. I expect the GOP to be replaced one way or another. We need a true alternative to the establishment serving and totalitarian Hate, Envy, & Pervert Party (i.e. Democrat Party).

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother November 01, 2015 9:33 AM  

It should be almost obvious to everyone here that the GOP wins when it is told to, and loses when it is told to.

There is no other explanation.

Blogger Dave November 01, 2015 9:49 AM  

Why do you think I require MINDLESS obedience?

Ah so Leo just has to be himself.

Blogger Arborist (#0232) November 01, 2015 10:03 AM  

ConservativeTreehouse has been doing excellent analysis. I added it to my at-least-daily reading right around the time that Trump announced.

Blogger ncartist November 01, 2015 10:04 AM  

The GOP is a walking-dead zombie.

Anonymous Ben Cohen November 01, 2015 10:11 AM  

Vox: Ian Fletcher is back
Donald Trump Is Trying to Save the Republican Party From Itself

Blogger clk November 01, 2015 10:24 AM  

"only thing standing in the way of a third Bush coronation."...

Actually only thing standing in the way of another
Bush coronation is Jeb Bush...

Blogger rycamor November 01, 2015 10:46 AM  

The establishment GOP can engineer things to put Bush back at the helm, but all that will mean is another 4 years of a Democratic president. If Jeb is the guy, then the Dems will find the right person to go against him, most likely not Hillary or Bernie. The Democrats are significantly more pragmatic than the Republicans about who they choose to run. They'll find just the right person, even if he's fairly obscure, but it won't take much to defeat Jeb.

Blogger Dexter November 01, 2015 10:54 AM  

Problem with Trump is he'd have to turn over his dealings to someone and stay in the blind. I find that problematic for one like Trump.

Heh. Do you think LBJ actually did that blind trust thing like he said he did? Guess again.

Also, do you think Donald is going to forget where his money is just because some "trust" is managing it?

Blogger IM2L844 November 01, 2015 10:58 AM  

You have it backwards. Cruz's winning play is to back Trump and become his VP and political heir.

Agreed. A Trump/Cruz ticket has the best chance of blowing shit up.

Blogger GK Chesterton November 01, 2015 11:04 AM  

Strongly agree Trump/Cruz. Cruz has a good mind, but he really needs to learn from Trump on how to stand on the stage. They would be good for each other.

Blogger Hammerli280 November 01, 2015 11:10 AM  

I'm not sure Trump cares much about the money. Beyond a certain point, moneymaking is a game. He's found something far more challenging.

Blogger Matamoros November 01, 2015 11:13 AM  

I've been saying that about a Trump/Cruz ticket for some time. It is the only one that looks viable.

Blogger Nate November 01, 2015 11:25 AM  

I've long thought the whole "jeb is dead" thing is over blown. As we learned with Jimmy Carter in Iowa... you're only dead until you win a state. As soon as jeb wins a state.. or even out-performs his numbers, he'll be the Comeback Kid

Anonymous Rolf November 01, 2015 11:26 AM  

I live in the Soviet of Washington State, a state that has repeatedly elected Patty "Dimmest Bulb in the Senate" Murray just because she's a democrat. It doesn't really matter who I vote for, the Dems will take the state.

I don't like ANY of the candidates, from either party. At any level. But I'd be seriously tempted to vote for a Trump-Cruz ticket, even campaign for it, just to watch establishment heads explode. I don't think Trump would make a good president - heck, he may be the only candidate now on the radar more likely to be impeached than Hillary if he gets in office - but right now the Republic needs a good shake up, or our goose is cooked.

Blogger IM2L844 November 01, 2015 11:26 AM  

To be honest, Trump could learn a great deal from Cruz too. It would be a reciprocally beneficial alliance.

Blogger Nate November 01, 2015 11:36 AM  

wouldn't be amusing though if the republican establishment had attempted to use Trump as part of their plan... only to have Trump be the one to blow their plans to hell and gone.

It would be sweet indeed to show them to be not only despicable rats... but incompetent despicable rats.

Anonymous The Monarch November 01, 2015 11:40 AM  

"Why do you think I require MINDLESS obedience?"

Not many people with functional minds want to roleplay being a minion with no name and a butterfly costume for some trust fund baby "archvillain" with a grudge against a terrible(yet superior to the "Dark Lord" lol) scifi author.

Although I guess I would probably be a pissy little shit if John Scalzi was a better writer than me too.

Blogger Dave November 01, 2015 11:44 AM  

but incompetent despicable rats.

Oh they've shown us that many times

Blogger Nate November 01, 2015 11:51 AM  

"Oh they've shown us that many times"

if their goal was to stay in power and get richer... they were demonstrating competence. Running the country into the ground was likely an inconsequential side effect to those pricks.

Blogger Eric November 01, 2015 11:53 AM  

You misread. He wrote Trump/Cruz as in Trump Pres. and Cruz VP. Can you live with that?

Blogger Nate November 01, 2015 11:56 AM  

"He wrote Trump/Cruz as in Trump Pres. and Cruz VP. Can you live with that?"

Cruz is 44. He has plenty of time. And there appears to be a very serious shortage of DNC star power in his age bracket.

Blogger The Other Robot November 01, 2015 11:59 AM  

Lots of weird polling shit going on.

Seems like they can only manipulate one at a time.

Blogger New York November 01, 2015 12:17 PM  

Cruz was born in Canada. That would seem to take a Trump/Cruz ticket off the table, if only for Donald's integrity after the birther movement.

Blogger Robert What? November 01, 2015 12:17 PM  

I've been saying this for some time: the Democrat and Republican establishments have already decided it will be Bush vs Hillary. They will change any rules they want any time they want to ensure that. I'm pretty sure they've also all agreed that Hillary will be the next President. Although they might not have let Bush in on that. But ultimately the Democrat and Republican establishments will be happy with either since either will keep the DC gravy train rolling. The only thing standing in their way is Trump. He is the only one who might give them grief over last minute rule changes. So for anyone who is unhappy with the prospect of another Bush or another Clinton, your only chance is to support Trump or Trump + Cruz.

Blogger Dave November 01, 2015 12:24 PM  

@Rolf -But I'd be seriously tempted to vote for a Trump-Cruz ticket, even campaign for it, just to watch establishment heads explode.

@Nate -wouldn't be amusing though if the republican establishment had attempted to use Trump as part of their plan... only to have Trump be the one to blow their plans to hell and gone.


I'm with Rolf and Nate on this; the amusement from watching heads explode would make me get on board with Trump/Cruz. And I'm a believer that voting doesn't matter and even legitimizes the whole thing as Doug Casey says. But the lulz would go on and on for months and years.

Anonymous Donn #0114 November 01, 2015 12:28 PM  

Seven states are needed? That guarantees only the biggest winners get to move on. It' Trump or nobody. They can break Carson. Some fake scandal would get leaked. It would be just the kind of thing to get support to drop. Right now he'd pick up most of the Trump voters because Jeb! is so unpalatable that no one outside the GOPe mainstream supports him and most do not want a politician. If Trump can break Jeb! however, a Cruz would be a good solid second choice. It would signal to the base he is conservative and willing to work with the real party.

I wouldn't count out Carson but every single conservative black candidate has a fake scandal. And the mainstream media breathlessly reports every minute of it until he's toast.

The Republican field just looks like a nomination. It's a coronation where a guy needs to get the closed caucuses to wrap it up. This could lead to a split. The GOPe doesn't mind. They believe any split is temporary but if a TEA party or something forms on a permanent basis the GOPe would still be happy as they are just as left as the Dems.

Anonymous Donn #0114 November 01, 2015 12:32 PM  

Oh and Jeb! would lose in a general election in a landslide. He knows it. No one in the party base would hold their nose and vote for him or not enough to matter. If wins a coronation and prances around with a sombrero and scepter the game is over for the GOPe but like I said they want things to go to the left too. They just aim for a different base.

Blogger His Majesty November 01, 2015 12:33 PM  

For any who remember Ronnie picking George H. W. Bush in 1980:

Cruz is a regime candidate. Fake "conservative" as they come. If Trump picks him, Trump will lose his base. Right now I'm his base but I will go back to staying home on election day.

Blogger Josh November 01, 2015 12:43 PM  

Trump/Cruz makes sense for both of them.

Trump is an Ivy League guy, he went to Wharton. Trump likes Ivy League guys. Cruz went to Princeton and Harvard.

Cruz's wife is a managing director at Goldman Sachs, Trump just said some very nice things about Goldman:

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump, who has said the financial sector makes money at the expense of the middle class, said he believed banking giant Goldman Sachs is a positive force in the world.

“Absolutely I do,” he said Wednesday morning on MSNBC’s “Morning Joe” program; “They’re a fantastic firm. They make money but they put people to work. They raise tremendous amounts of capital”


Trump went to Cruz's rally against the Iran deal in September. Both Trump and Cruz have stressed the importance of defending Israel.

And both Trump and Cruz oppose illegal immigration.

Blogger Josh November 01, 2015 12:45 PM  

I wouldn't count out Carson but every single conservative black candidate has a fake scandal. And the mainstream media breathlessly reports every minute of it until he's toast.

I fully expect Carson to have a Rick Perry "oops" moment in a debate.

Blogger Tom Terrific November 01, 2015 12:50 PM  

Immigration is the ONLY issue.

It is not a right or left issue. That's why both Democrats and Republicans support open borders.

Blogger His Majesty November 01, 2015 12:52 PM  

"And both Trump and Cruz oppose illegal immigration."

They SAY they oppose it.

Cruz actually works for massive LEGAL immigration. No doubt his Goldman wife wears the pants.

Blogger His Majesty November 01, 2015 12:57 PM  

To all who think Rafael Cruz is in your corner:

YOU are the reason we have such sorry "choices"!

Blogger Elocutioner #0226 November 01, 2015 3:44 PM  

@64 New York -
"Cruz was born in Canada. That would seem to take a Trump/Cruz ticket off the table, if only for Donald's integrity after the birther movement."

How about - no.

We've been assured by the short sighted fools and traitors of both parties that citizenship means nothing for us or the President. So those are the rules on the ground. You'd best play by the real rules if you want to win. Losing honorably wins you some fancy new chains.

Anonymous BGS November 01, 2015 4:07 PM  

The Conservative Treehouse is one of those sites I'd like to trust, but can't after its gotten so many other things wrong.

I have followed them from near the beginning of the Skittles event, what have they gotten wrong? They even post tripwire alerts when things they said came true, or proved theories like this one of all the zero's trying to steal local state votes from Trump to help JEB. The GOPEstablishment changed the nomination rules that would have made Jeb a shoo in, and if the Zeros stay in Jeb has a good chance even without counting fraud.

Problem with Trump is he'd have to turn over his dealings to someone and stay in the blind. I find that problematic for one like Trump

Its barely enforced, for the most part blatantly ignored. Do you think he will go broke in 5 years like NFL players if his holdings are made blind?

they were demonstrating competence. Running the country into the ground was likely an inconsequential side effect to those pricks

Money can be made faster with destruction than creation. Especially if you know when the destruction will happen.

They can break Carson. Some fake scandal would get leaked. It would be just the kind of thing to get support to drop.

I joked for a while that Soros put out wanted posters for women willing to claim Carson raped them, but they accidently used Cosby's pic

Blogger Jack Hanson November 01, 2015 4:24 PM  

Call the Trump-Cruz ticket "The Apprentice: WH edition".

Blogger Cail Corishev November 01, 2015 4:54 PM  

No one in the party base would hold their nose and vote for [Jeb] or not enough to matter.

They might not today. But imagine this scenario: Trump drops out this week, after a scandal spanning a few days. Jeb comes out and says something statesmanlike (written for him) that calms the party faithful. The party spokesbots in the press start selling this Narrative: "It's too late in the game to start over with someone new. We need a candidate who already has a bankroll and established political connections. Cruz shows potential, but he's young and needs to grow some more. We might let him be VP if he gets on board right away. But the guy we really need is Jeb; he's the only one with the foundation and name recognition to get the job done -- and what do you want, President Hillary?!"

The script writes itself; it's not that much unlike the way they've sold GOP voters the last few duds. After a couple months of that, Jeb could be the front-runner. But they have to get Trump out first.

Anonymous Godfrey November 01, 2015 5:48 PM  

Anyone else remember when Ted Cruz was booed off stage at the Middle East Christian Summit in 2014?

Cruz is a Zionist.

Blogger BlueCat November 01, 2015 6:27 PM  

@3 "It's way too soon to assume Jeb is done. (I think it's good to talk as if Jeb is done to spread the idea that he's a loser, but that's not the same thing as believing it ourselves.) "

Indeed. I chuckle when I read that Jeb! is "finished" or that he's "toast". GOPe is powerful and is not to be underestimated.

Blogger Roy Lofquist November 01, 2015 6:47 PM  

A few observations:

1. The polls are totally unreliable. The response rate for telephone surveys is less than 10%.

"The percentage of households in a sample that are successfully interviewed – the response rate – has fallen dramatically. At Pew Research, the response rate of a typical telephone survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today."

http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/

Any poll should be read as Trump 2.5%, Carson 2.1%,...,No Comment 90%. There is some kind of self-selection bias that is a total mystery.

2. Bush-Rubio is unconstitutional (12th Amendment).

3. Only one sitting vice president, G.H.W. Bush, has been elected president in the last 170 years. VP is a political dead end. "He (John Nance Garner) famously described the Vice-Presidency as being "not worth a bucket of warm piss".

4. In a time of Cable TV and the ubiquity of the internet money is not as important as it has been in the past. The primaries are a long hard slog that require organization, experience and boots on the ground. I see a two man race after South Carolina - Cruz and Rubio.

Blogger Josh November 01, 2015 7:11 PM  

Anyone else remember when Ted Cruz was booed off stage at the Middle East Christian Summit in 2014?

Cruz is a Zionist.


He is. So is Trump.

Blogger Cataline Sergius November 01, 2015 7:31 PM  

Vaguely on topic.

We lost the best Vice President we never had tonight.

RIP Fred Thompson age 73

Blogger Cataline Sergius November 01, 2015 7:49 PM  

Yes the GOP establishment wants Jeb.

No doubt. No question.

They do however need someone to actually vote for him. I'm not seeing it and at this point, neither are they.

The donor class is nothing if not adaptable. There is an upward limit to how long they will back a pony with two broken legs.

The lib media has abandoned Jeb for Kasich. Danny Diaz is trying to convince everyone that disasters don't matter. And Jeb's last name is still; Bush.

The man is simply unelectable. This was always a vanity run for Jeb.

So having been denied one of their own, I expect to see the donor class move their support seamlessly to...

...Rubio.

He has what Jeb most certainly does not. Raw political talent.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not in Marco's corner. I'm just saying that after the money men hold an intervention for Jeb they going to transfer their support to Rubio.

Blogger Josh November 01, 2015 7:54 PM  

So having been denied one of their own, I expect to see the donor class move their support seamlessly to...

...Rubio.

He has what Jeb most certainly does not. Raw political talent.

Don't get me wrong, I'm not in Marco's corner. I'm just saying that after the money men hold an intervention for Jeb they going to transfer their support to Rubio.


I wonder if the donor class convinced Jeb! it was a good idea to attack Rubio in the debate, thus setting him up to be shived by Rubio.

Blogger Ron November 01, 2015 8:41 PM  

I wonder if the donor class convinced Jeb! it was a good idea to attack Rubio in the debate, thus setting him up to be shived by Rubio.

I assumed it was scripted and planned as soon as it happened.

Shift the crown from El Dud to somebody who wants it and can be manipulated. The Rube is the RNC's Obama Prompter-Reader.

Blogger Nate November 01, 2015 8:56 PM  

"He is. So is Trump."

So what?

Blogger SciVo November 01, 2015 9:00 PM  

Cail Corishev @3: I'll say what I said a few weeks ago: Jeb is still the presumptive candidate, and will be until he bows out and throws his support to someone else.

No, he's a marionette. Cut the strings and there's no support to give. Nobody needs him.

Jeb was always the appointed candidate, and the donors already gave him their money. There's no reason to think they've given up on him.

Yes there is: anonymous reports of big money men voicing concerns and turning off the spigot.

They can put him right back on top with a couple of primary wins, if they can get Trump out of the way.

But why would they? This isn't personal; it's a business proposition for the super-rich, who intend to engineer a Xanatos gambit for themselves in the general election, as per usual. The Establishment party doesn't care whether Rubio is a stalking horse for Jeb or vice-versa.

As an aside, it's very telling that the Establishment party went all-in on Rodham on the other side. I expected them to nudge Biden to go in early enough so that he would have a campaign apparatus in place that could take over from the Wicked Witch of the West South Central, in case her campaign implodes. Think about what it means that he didn't.

It doesn't mean that the Estabs have every confidence in her; they don't "do" trust. It means that she's dependent on her campaign, not the other way around, and its real owners can hand it off to anyone if she has to bow out for some reason.

Blogger SciVo November 01, 2015 9:23 PM  

That Would Be Telling @7: And if the process is so wired to pick ¡Jeb!, to not pick someone like Cruz, in what fashion does it nonetheless allow Trump to win?

The RNC changed it so that candidates have to get a majority of delegates in at least eight states to even be presented as a candidate. Even on Super Tuesday, the vast majority of delegates (including Texas) will be distributed proportionally. Then in mid-March, Florida suddenly has 99 delegates as winner-take-all, where Donald is leading over both Marco and Jeb.

The difference is that in every scenario, Trump will always have the money to compete as long as he wants to, and he will probably even take the pumped-up pot of Florida delegates that were supposed to be guaranteed Estab. Cruz can't say that.

Blogger SciVo November 01, 2015 9:28 PM  

LurkingPuppy @12: And note that the Vice President can preside over the Senate whenever he wants to, regardless of whom the senators elect as president pro tempore of the Senate.

Ha! Cruz would be just enough of a dick to actually do it, too. 8)

Blogger SciVo November 01, 2015 9:33 PM  

Stilicho #0066 @17: Trump-Cruz has been in place at lest informally since before the first debate. Their not so secret meeting and subsequent polite camaraderie make it evident they are planning the Trump-Cruz ticket.

Heh. It's reached the point where it's news that a candidate for President thinks the other guy won't win.

Blogger SciVo November 01, 2015 9:37 PM  

ScuzzaMan @22: But teh other way around: make the play, and only drop out when it is successful. Staying in is his bargaining chip.

'xactly.

Blogger SciVo November 01, 2015 9:47 PM  

Patrick @27: But is Rubio in fact a viable option? I can't see it. His time in the Senate has been bad (when he bothers to show up). He couldn't even manage his personal finances. Every time he opens his mouth vacuous speechifying comes out.

Sure, but what are your reasons for thinking that Rubio isn't a viable option?

We already know from recent experience that the American people would gladly elect a young empty suit, and would specifically do so over a younger model of HRC -- eight years younger, to be precise. And women age like milk.

Blogger Josh November 01, 2015 9:58 PM  

So what?

I think that matters to some people.

Blogger SciVo November 01, 2015 10:17 PM  

Patrick @30: It's still amazing to me McCain was the nominee. The lesson is that hawkishness trumps everything else?

Usefulness trumps everything, and when he bucked the Republican party, it was to work closer with Democrats. Now that I understand things better, I'm re-evaluating everything under the assumption that all nominally "bipartisan" bills are really Establishment party bills... which makes John "Maverick" McCain a reliable tool.

Blogger Desiderius November 01, 2015 10:22 PM  

"...Rubio.

He has what Jeb most certainly does not. Raw political talent."

He is the closest thing running to Justin Trudeau, so he's got that going for him.

I'm in with Trump/Cruz if they get the Sessions endorsement.

The one thing to keep in mind about Cruz is that he has a legit 50 extra IQ points over the rest of these jokers. He's Clinton/Nixon class.

Blogger Desiderius November 01, 2015 10:24 PM  

"So what?

I think that matters to some people."

It's a useful distraction. Israel falls into the sea and every Western city becomes the Gates of Vienna.

Blogger TheRedSkull November 01, 2015 11:16 PM  

Trump can dominate the stump
Rino schemes have hit a bump
Cruz seems evangelic fair
Power duo's derriere

Blogger Robert Coble November 01, 2015 11:36 PM  

A co-worker opined tonight that Trump and Clinton have struck a secret deal. Trump will divide the Republicans so that Clinton can be elected. Wouldn't THAT be a kick in the teeth?!?

We certainly live in "interesting times"!

Blogger SciVo November 02, 2015 2:27 AM  

Robert Coble, I would ask your co-worker: if the only division is between Trump and everyone else, then why is there so much of everyone else? If everyone else is so similar, then why not just two or three?

That is the question that the Splitter Strategy Hypothesis answers. Your co-worker has it backward; Bush is the one dividing the party, and he's doing it with the help of the RNC, since the insiders despise the voters.

Blogger Timmy3 November 02, 2015 10:54 AM  

Mr. Sleepy Head Jeb will never win against Hillary. Hillary needs someone to overwhelm her. Trump can win and I wonder if Cruz as VP should be nominated to the Supreme Court in the second term of Trump's presidency. It seems like VP candidates haven't of late been very good presidential candidates. If Cruz can't make it now, why would he make it in 8 years? Hillary is many times the loser against Obama. She could very well lose again. Obama showed the way to win. Trump's disadvantages are not about him, but the Republican establishment. He can lose because the establishment backed another to punish him.

Blogger TheRedSkull November 02, 2015 11:24 AM  

If Trump Republicans divide
That's because they're on the side
Of losing out of righteous pride
While the Democrats deride.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2015 2:00 PM  

> You have it backwards. Cruz's winning play is to back Trump and become his VP and political heir.

Yes. Though Trump doesn't have to take the deal, it may be his best option. But he can have his pick of the other candidates if he takes the nomination, or he can go for an outsider.

> ...it would make sense for him to drop out, and make a play for Trump/Cruz.

As Stilcho says, make the deal before dropping out. And make sure you have a way of enforcing it.

> Trump-Cruz has been in place at lest informally since before the first debate.

Not something I would discount.

> Although I guess I would probably be a pissy little shit if John Scalzi was a better writer than me too.

Well, I hate to break the bad news to you...

Anonymous A Concerned Reader November 02, 2015 2:48 PM  

I wouldn't be the least bit surprised if the person calling himself "The Monarch" is actually Yama.

It fits his M.O. pretty much perfectly; a nonsensical, off-topic attack that he somehow relates to an adult-targeted cartoon series apropos of nothing. Yama's go-to obsession (not counting stalking Asian women on the Internet, of course) in the past was always Archer, but I'd imagine there's a significant overlap between that show's fanbase and Venture Bros.

It might just be some OTHER troll, of course, since Venture Bros is a funny show with a huge fanbase, and I doubt there's only one crazy person among them, but the style is similar enough to possibly warrant looking into further, for use in any potential future legal action.

Blogger Dexter November 03, 2015 10:40 AM  

Only one sitting vice president, G.H.W. Bush, has been elected president in the last 170 years. VP is a political dead end.

Millard Fillmore, Andrew Johnson, Chester A. Arthur, Teddy Roosevelt, Calvin Coolidge, Harry Truman, LBJ, and Jerry Ford disagree, and note that you don't always have to be elected to make the transition from VP to POTUS...

Anonymous Discard November 03, 2015 2:47 PM  

105 Dexter: You'll note that 81 Roy Loftquist did say "elected", not "succeeded because the President died or resigned". Teddy, Calvin, Harry and LBJ were sitting Presidents when elected. Millard and Jerry were never elected.

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