Tuesday, March 22, 2016

Primaries: Arizona and Utah

This is to discuss the results of the Republican primaries in Arizona, Utah, and American Samoa. Decision Desk HQ has the live results as they are reported.

Trump is going to win Arizona, the only question is by how much. If he wins big, that's one more nail in the coffin of the GOPe this year. And as I've said, I think he's very nearly assured the 1,237 delegates required already.



Blogger Eric Wilson March 22, 2016 10:14 PM  

One interesting thing is that Kasich has been campaigning in Utah pretty hard. It would be amusing in the least to the #NeverTrumpers if he prevented Cruz from hitting the 50% threshold to get all of their delegates. One can hope...

Anonymous Boogeyman March 22, 2016 10:25 PM  

I hope Trump does get the 1,237 he needs to close the deal. All the radio talk shows are going on like it's a real long shot. The sound of shrill panic as he closes in on the needed number will be endlessly entertaining.

Blogger lowercaseb March 22, 2016 10:28 PM  

@1 we'll see... This election opened my eyes to the blatant corruption in caucuses. I think Utah is already decided.

Arizona however is a primary... That is going to be interesting to watch. I think it's obvious Trump is going to take it, but I am interested in the demographics of the vote spread.

Blogger Eric Wilson March 22, 2016 10:33 PM  

@2 Yeah, I think the caucuses really hurt Trump. I think he wins Arizona fairly easily, especially because there was a lot of early voting, and a fair number of those votes will have gone to Rubio.

Anonymous VFM #6306 March 22, 2016 10:41 PM  

Kasich: "We are not at war with Islam."

Yes, mailman. That is the damn problem.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 22, 2016 10:43 PM  

How many delegates are there from American Samoa?

Blogger Eric Wilson March 22, 2016 10:43 PM  

@4 It would be hilarious if Trump made a deal with Kasich for him to become Postmaster General.

And then shuttered the USPS.

Anonymous VFM #6306 March 22, 2016 10:44 PM  

The caucus is oligarchy in action. Always has been.

Blogger Eric Wilson March 22, 2016 10:44 PM  

@5 9, I believe, but 3 are necessarily unbound, although I think all of them are technically.

Blogger Eric Wilson March 22, 2016 10:45 PM  

American Samoa

Blogger Phillip George March 22, 2016 10:49 PM  

You just can't make this stuff up. Beyond parody. Beyond all reason. Taking songs to a gunfight. Trying to reason your way out of it

no-one can make this stuff up.
Politicians typically come out and say "what the terrorists want is for you to blah blah blah ... be afraid, cower, surrender your freedom, live in fear, ......blah blah blah"
It is, of course, complete horse shit.
"no Mr Bond, I expect you to die"

No Mr Bond, I expect you to die. The reason I think this is salient Vox is I can't help think this is all about the bond markets - the unsinkable dollar that can't possibly stay afloat unless everything else sinks without a trace

What can Trump actually do? If we make it to an election I'll be amazed.

Blogger Cicatrizatic March 22, 2016 11:05 PM  

Early Maricopa County reporting: Trump at 45%, Cruz 20%

Blogger Rambam March 22, 2016 11:09 PM  

@5 How many delegates are there from American Samoa?

One, but it's really big.

Anonymous Utahguy March 22, 2016 11:12 PM  

Trump got 8% in my precinct. Cruz 67%. The demographics are greater than 95% white,greater than 90% mormon. Upper middle class

Blogger Cicatrizatic March 22, 2016 11:17 PM  

Cruz competing with Rubio for distant 2nd in Arizona

Anonymous Ezekiel Cassandros March 22, 2016 11:17 PM  

Meanwhile in Arizona, Donald Trump is at 47%, and second place, with 22%, is... All Others.
Cruz is currently losing to All Others.

But Utah might be close. Guys, Donald needs all of our help! I just contributed $0.00 to his campaign; who will match me???

Blogger tweell March 22, 2016 11:18 PM  

We went to vote in Phoenix, and there was almost 200 people in line ahead of us. I've never seen anything like it here. There were a couple Bernie volunteers working the line, but most folks were for Trump. Immigration is huge in AZ, and he's the only candidate on the right side of that issue.

Blogger lowercaseb March 22, 2016 11:19 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Cicatrizatic March 22, 2016 11:21 PM  

Arizona called for Trump - don't think Cruz stands a chance at this point. Even if he somehow wins Wisconsin, Trump will crush him in NY and the northeast and take all the momentum heading into the final 5 weeks.

Blogger lowercaseb March 22, 2016 11:22 PM  

Rambam wrote:@5 How many delegates are there from American Samoa?

One, but it's really big.

OK, I did actually read that wile taking a drink and I did almost choke.

You are my hero for the evening.

Blogger tz March 22, 2016 11:30 PM  

at 538, they said Trump needs 70 remaining delegates tonight. If he gets American Samoa (thought they might be unbound) and Arizona, he will be on track.

Cruz problem is his needed remaining delegates needed will go to 80%, 90%, 95%, past the 100% event horizon Kasich already occupies, and he can only be a spoiler so the convention will go GOPe and neither Trump nor Cruz will win.

Blogger lowercaseb March 22, 2016 11:32 PM  

I just saw the precinct map for Arizona...Good Lord, that is an old fashioned ass whuppin'

We knew it was coming, but feels damn good. I think it might be time for a victory shot of rye.

I can't wait to hear the wailing and gnashing of teeth tomorrow at work.

Anonymous Snick March 22, 2016 11:35 PM  

I figure that in Utah, Trump has either beat the pants off Cruz and they are all in shock, or the Soros minions are trying to cook the online voting books to swing it Cruz's way.
But after his exploiting of the Belgium tragedy for his own political gain, I hope the mormons had the good sense to vote Cruz off the island.

Anonymous JI March 22, 2016 11:37 PM  

Just got back from my local Republican caucus here in Utah (first time I've registered with a political party in many years), and the folks in my precinct just won't vote for Trump. I suspect that, and this is just pure speculation, although the church did not give official direction on how to vote, they are taking their cue from Romney. Again, in my local precinct, which had about 80 people show up.

Anonymous Utahguy March 22, 2016 11:43 PM  

Our precinct had 30% of the people register tonight. Mostly to vote against Trump. Utah should have most of the numbers now, but I believe the online voting is open until 11 PM.

FYI... To vote online you had to pre-register several weeks ago and then you could vote all-day until 11 PM. 80-90% of the votes are cast on paper ballots at the caucuses. When the caucus votes are counted they are then sent to the state party. Some caucuses take an hour and some take 3+ hours.

Blogger Lazarus March 22, 2016 11:43 PM  

Ezekiel Cassandros wrote:Meanwhile in Arizona, Donald Trump is at 47%, and second place, with 22%, is... All Others.

Cruz is currently losing to All Others.

But Utah might be close. Guys, Donald needs all of our help! I just contributed $0.00 to his campaign; who will match me???

I just donated my left nut. Who has the balls to match ME?

Anonymous Greg March 22, 2016 11:48 PM  

The demographics of American Samoa point to a Cruz or Kasich win.

Blogger Eric Guillaume Dilasser-McDowell March 22, 2016 11:50 PM  

Who else has money on Trump getting screwed for less than 25% in Utah? Kasich's tireless campaigning over there should play right into Cruz's hands.

Blogger Cicatrizatic March 22, 2016 11:58 PM  

Cruz will win Utah with more than 50%, and it won't really mean much in the end.

Tonight explodes another hypothesis of the NeverTrump crowd - that Trump can't win closed primaries. After the March 15 results, that was the leading explanation as to why he wouldn't reach 1,237. Except he dominated Florida and now has dominated Arizona.

Blogger Timmy3 March 22, 2016 11:58 PM  

"Cruz is currently losing to All Others."

Or the anti-Trumps are unwilling to give Trump their votes in Arizona. Trump won again, but not a majority.

Anonymous Passinthough March 23, 2016 12:01 AM  

Utah will go to Cruz. The Wasatch Front Mormons adore Romney. A high percentage of them are probably distantly related to him.

Blogger Timmy3 March 23, 2016 12:04 AM  

Clinton won 10K more votes than Trump in Arizona. Not a good sign in a red state.

Blogger Cicatrizatic March 23, 2016 12:08 AM  

"Clinton won 10K more votes than Trump in Arizona. Not a good sign in a red state."

You may not have noticed, but there are only two candidates in the Democratic race.

Also the "All Others" in AZ are Rubio early votes.

Blogger Timmy3 March 23, 2016 12:13 AM  

Carson's 4% could have put Trump over the top. He dropped out longer than Rubio.

Blogger Timmy3 March 23, 2016 12:15 AM  

Plus, Carson endorsed Trump yet the voters still voted for the drop out.

Anonymous Takin' a Look March 23, 2016 12:16 AM  

Mormons are "Webees=Wannabe hebrews....with magic granny-panties"

Fuck 'em give them Deseret and watch them dry up.

Anonymous Bobo March 23, 2016 12:26 AM  


If being Intentionally Bad At Math ever becomes an Olympic event, you'll do your country proud...

Blogger praetorian March 23, 2016 12:28 AM  

Fuck 'em give them Deseret and watch them dry up.

I see no reason why Der Trumpenstaffel can't, after a sad smile and a single tear, move on and ignore the pleasant, hard working, tidy and harmless desert folk with their fanciful notions.

Anonymous Bobby Farr March 23, 2016 12:30 AM  

Results as expected. The math isn't looking good for Trump. The media has been saying he is very unpopular with the suburban Republicans in WI. Most PA delegates are unbound. He could still win enough delegates but he'd need a near perfect outcome or support from unbound delegates. If he is even one delegate short, the cucks aren't going to let him in.

Blogger Artisanal Toad March 23, 2016 12:31 AM  


All Trump needs in Arizona is one more vote than the next guy in order to win all 58 delegates. Why do you make it sound like Trump hasn't won, when he has 105k votes more than Ted? Even if Ted got *all* of Rubio, Carson and Jeb's votes, he would still be 10k short of a win (right now).

Blogger pyrrhus March 23, 2016 12:32 AM  

@Timmy3 The chances of Hillary beating Trump in AZ....infinitesimal....even the women here don't like her

Anonymous John VI March 23, 2016 12:36 AM  

Thank you for that lol.

Anonymous Bob March 23, 2016 12:39 AM  

85% reporting, Trump still leading AZ by 100k (46% to Cruz's 22%)

Come on, Utah, stop teasing us with that 0% reporting

Anonymous Yay Trump March 23, 2016 12:45 AM  

Trump doesn't need a near-perfect outcome to get to 1237. I swear, some of the supposed supporters are more eeeyyyyooooreeee than the overtly anti-Trump folks on Hot Air and such.

Blogger Blue88 March 23, 2016 1:01 AM  

Watching this election, I have an uneasy feeling. I am all for Trump. I think he has given voice to a simmering rage among, for a lack of a better word, normal folk. I haven't voted since I was involved in our local race during George the Second's first run. (Nasty business there. I was part of the local republican process. Turned me off to politics) That said, I am voting for Trump.

It is just that I have a feeling that something is being unleashed, released, unbound. And I don't think it will end well.

Blogger Timmy3 March 23, 2016 1:04 AM  

@Bobo. My math wasn't wrong. Just your brain is.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 23, 2016 1:09 AM  

@23 JI

they are taking their cue from Romney.

Taking their cue from a loser

Blogger Mike Farnsworth March 23, 2016 1:09 AM  

Report from Utah: my precinct didn't have a lot of Trump voters, but there were definitely a good handful. My precinct is big, perhaps one of the biggest in the state for repubs.

During vetting for state delegates, there was an 18yo girl that ran, saying she was working her way towards a goal of being a constitutional lawyer. Audience asked all candidates for state delegate who they would be voting for, and there were three of us in a row (I was on the stage) that all supported Trump. The girl was fearless in declaring that, it was awesome.

Don't count us Utahns out yet, we'll get there eventually.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 23, 2016 1:09 AM  

I find it interesting Teddy somehow won Graham county by 4 votes.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 23, 2016 1:19 AM  

Are the mormons voting For Tundra Ted, or Against TRUMPAGEDDON?

Blogger lowercaseb March 23, 2016 1:20 AM  

Blue88 wrote:I have a feeling that something is being unleashed, released, unbound. And I don't think it will end well.

To be honest... I have that gut feeling also, but whatever is coming is what this country needs right now. We've been tiptoe in around these culture and government issues for too long. We need to finally face off about these issues once and for all. We've tried talking and it goes nowhere.

I was a moderate... I was a damn good moderate but the time for talking is over.

We'll... That's not true. This election is the last chance for talking.

Blogger lowercaseb March 23, 2016 1:24 AM  

Wow... Heartfelt messages and typos are an embarrassing mixture. Kids... don't pontificate and thumb type on a tablet.

Blogger Mike Farnsworth March 23, 2016 1:30 AM  


It seemed like people in Utah were voicing positive support for Ted, but on social media and the like it's just anti-Trump. In person at the caucus, they didn't want to go on the attach against Trump because they would have to face real people telling them to shut up.

When some positive words were voiced for Trump, I heard some groans and snorts, but that was about it.

So...I don't have an answer to your question. Seems to be a bit of both.

Blogger John Williams March 23, 2016 1:42 AM  

Ezekiel, with your donation, Trump now has billions.

Blogger Unknown March 23, 2016 1:56 AM  

@15 Ezekiel. As long as Trump isn't taking donations, $0.00 puts you on the same level as his biggest bundlers.

Blogger James Higham March 23, 2016 1:57 AM  

Picked up 12 in Idaho, might be just short, aside from free delegates.

Anonymous Sensei March 23, 2016 2:05 AM  

Blue88 wrote:I have a feeling that something is being unleashed, released, unbound. And I don't think it will end well.

To be honest... I have that gut feeling also, but whatever is coming is what this country needs right now.-lowercaseb

Increasingly, as I read news about this election and escalating events in the world I keep hearing the Bane theme (with drums and chanting) playing in the back of my head. Days are coming like the world has not seen in my lifetime.
I am neither pessimistic nor optimistic; God will receive all glory due His name yet humans will never lose their sin nature, and in the End the universe will also burn. I just hope to acquit myself well and be found ready when the Times of Trouble come, as they seem rapidly to be.

Blogger Were-Puppy March 23, 2016 2:12 AM  

Trump gets AZ
Teddy gets UT

I'm going to speculate Samoa goes to Trump due to the strong WWE ties

Blogger Tom K. March 23, 2016 2:18 AM  

Quite entertaining to watch the comments. Alot of bad math is right!

Looked over at the Dems side. Hillary has just 217,000+ votes to Donald's 226,000, and the Republicans have nearly 500,000 votes to the Dems about 380,000.

I don't trust caucuses at ALL. What's really funny is Bernie CRUSHING Hillary in both Utah AND Idaho!! Getting something like 80% in BOTH states! LOL!!

Looking at Utah, I find it hard to take the voting seriously when less than 5,000 is 5% of the precincts reporting! So what? Less than 100,000 are voting? Bizarre.

Blogger Mike Farnsworth March 23, 2016 2:27 AM  

Wait until Utah, Davis and Salt Lake counties are reporting. That is the bulk of the population, and not all precincts are the same size and number of people. when those are all reporting that's when the rubber meets the road.

Blogger Mike Farnsworth March 23, 2016 2:28 AM  

Er, sorry, add Weber county to that list (where Ogden is). Those four counties are where the majority of the population is.

Anonymous 11B March 23, 2016 2:36 AM  

Mike Farnsworth tell us this. If Trump is the GOP nominee, will Utah still be a red state? Or will they go with Hillary?

Blogger Mike Farnsworth March 23, 2016 2:38 AM  

It's funny, I had that question a couple of times at the caucus. There was a recent poll that came out saying people would supposedly go for Hillary over Trump...

But it's absolute BS. Everyone in Utah will fall in line and either vote for Trump if he's the nominee or they will stay home. Utah will not flip to blue. Once Trump were the nominee, everyone would take a month or two of feeling icky and then get over it and vote for him.

Because in Utah, Hillary and Bill = the devil. The Clintons are despised here.

Anonymous 11B March 23, 2016 2:43 AM  

Mike, I suppose people in Utah are defensive about Romney. But has anyone around you seriously asked why Mitt is attacking Trump with more enthusiasm than he directed towards Obama?

Blogger Bosefus March 23, 2016 2:44 AM  

Uh... Mormons are not Christians... case solved.

Blogger Mike Farnsworth March 23, 2016 2:46 AM  

Some context:

Whatever personal moral failing Trump may (allegedly) have, Bill and Hillary are documented as having worse. They're anti-gun, anti-liberty/progressive, proven liars, etc. All of that sort of thing plays very badly here.

And to top it off, in Bill's first term he said that since he didn't do so well in Utah, he was going to visit us reasonably regularly and show us he's a good guy and Utahns can support him. So he came a few times to Park City to ski...and then subsequently gave California environmentalists what they wanted and stole public/school board lands to turn Grand Escalante into a national monument.

When he ran for his second term, to my knowledge Utah was the only state where Ross Perot got more votes than Bill.

That's how much we hate the Clintons.

Blogger Mike Farnsworth March 23, 2016 2:49 AM  

@63, yes, many have raised eyebrows about Mitt Romney and what he's going. People in my precinct were joking about how Mitt Romney has endorsed all of the candidates. That's not lost on them.

I think people here don't take the time to really find out about Trump or why he's hated so much by party leadership. It's pretty frustrating, but I have found quite a few people who, in quieter moments, admit that there's something real to Trump.

That's why I'm confident Utah will go ahead and hand it's electoral votes to him if he's the nominee.

Anonymous VFM #6306 March 23, 2016 2:55 AM  

Pay attention to the non-superdelegate race in the Dems. Sanders has a shot to close that gap to zero in the coming weeks. That would be a mess for them. No one has needed Superdelegates to get the nom since Mondale, and even then he only needed a handful of them.

They normally have been the thumb on the scale to drive the whacko out.

This year, the SDs could literally decide it.

Anonymous Greg March 23, 2016 3:01 AM  

Cruz is currently sitting at 70% in Utah.

Blogger Mike Farnsworth March 23, 2016 3:10 AM  

Uh... Mormons are not Christians... case solved.

False. And it has nothing to do with any of this.

Blogger Alexandros March 23, 2016 3:20 AM  

Claiming you are something does not mean you are that something; at some point, the leap in theology has to separate the labels lest we start calling Muslims Christians, .etc

But you're right, it has nothing to do with any of this.

Blogger SciVo March 23, 2016 3:33 AM  

Were-Puppy wrote:Trump gets AZ

Teddy gets UT

I'm going to speculate Samoa goes to Trump due to the strong WWE ties

Apparently Samoa is having a fight where a party leader is trying to disqualify all the delegates on a fake technicality, in order to put alternates that he likes better in their stead.

It looks to me like a tragic example of small-town politics gone wrong: normally all that matters is what you can get away with, but now the whole country is watching, and he didn't take that into account.

Anonymous Ronnie March 23, 2016 3:59 AM  

How exactly did Samoa become a part of the process?

Blogger dienw March 23, 2016 4:37 AM  

Too many people posting here are simply bright eyed and bushy tailed: they are ignoring the voting fraud. In Utah's case, Soros has his finger in the vote counting company - out of Britain no less:

Soros Board Member Chairs Firm Running Online Voting for Tuesday’s Utah Caucuses

Anonymous Anonymous March 23, 2016 4:47 AM  

Trump got slaughtered in Utah - 13.5% - third behind Kasich. I'm sure religion plays a part in this; I am not qualified to tease apart those reasons. But I think something else is at play here. Utah's homogeneity and strong social compact has sheltered its citizens from the fact that America is dead. Same goes (to a lessor extent) for Idaho. Those in the rust belt and south are forced to deal with the corpse daily. Not to worry, I'm sure the State Dept. has some Syrian or Somali refugees poised to poz even the smallest hamlets in the mountain west.

Anonymous VFM #6306 March 23, 2016 4:54 AM  

Caucuses are not small town democracies. They are the purest form of machine politics. Do not kid yourself.

Caucuses are Amway on steroids. Elmer Gantry is what they is.

Anonymous drnick March 23, 2016 4:57 AM  


How bad was the pressure inside Utah? Was it an official thing of the establishment, the church, or simply a grassroots thing? Given support from Romney/ Beck and their broader reach outside the state, I imagine their influence within is considerable.

Blogger Harold March 23, 2016 5:09 AM  

Trump has yet to win more then 50% of the vote in a primary. In Massachusetts, an open primary state, he managed to get to 49.3%. Kasich is the only Republican who would have chance in Massachusetts, because he's a Democrat. I'm waiting on him to be the next party jumper. Trump isn't going to take MA in the general election.

I'll vote for Trump if he gets the nomination. But, I don't see him winning in November unless the Religion of Peace™ decides to pull off some Brussels or Mumbai style attacks in the United States.

Anonymous Yay Trump March 23, 2016 5:25 AM  

Cruz didn't get 50% in his home state. Trump is being held to a stricter standard.

Blogger VD March 23, 2016 5:26 AM  

I think something else is at play here. Utah's homogeneity and strong social compact has sheltered its citizens from the fact that America is dead.

Exactly. Only the completely clueless could possibly support Cruz, let alone Kasich, at this point.

Results as expected. The math isn't looking good for Trump.

Trump was expected to win by 12. He's winning by 21. The math is fine.

Anonymous Anonymous March 23, 2016 5:51 AM  

Even if the math isn't fine, it no longer matters. These factions have been acting openly and the charade is over for a very large portion of the populace.

Anonymous Bobby Farr March 23, 2016 6:25 AM  

I may be overlooking delegates or being too pessimistic in assuming unbound delegates will be entirely anti-Trump. Even if Trump dominates the West Coast and Northeast, I don't see where he gets the delegates. The remaining primaries look like:

North Dakota - a caucus in Cruz/evangelical country with unbound delegates, 0/28 for Trump

Wisconsin - winner take all - media has reported the population centers are anti-Trump but I've seen no polls - be conservative and say 0/42 Trump

New York - proportional by district - based on recent polls likely to be two to one for Trump 64/95

Connecticut - proportional but WTA if winner gets over 50% - 28/28

Delaware - WTA - 16/16

Maryland - WTA by district - 38/38

Pennsylvania - WTA but most delegates are unbound - 17/71

Rhode Island - proportional - 10/19

Indiana - WTA by district, assume Trump gets 3/4 districts - 42/57

Nebraska - WTA in cuckland - 0/36

West Virginia - direct elect - 17/34

Oregon - proportional - 14/28

Washington - proportional - 22/44

California - WTA by district - 120/172

Montana - WTA - 0/27

New Jersey - WTA - 51/51

New Mexico - proportional - 12/24

South Dakota - WTA - 0/29

This gets him 434 delegates to add to his current 739 for 1173. This is an incredible performance given the number of candidates and the corruption involved in the process. I think this gets Trump close enough that he will be the nominee, although not sure what type of deal he would need to cut to make it happen. I had been more optimistic early on when I assumed his sweep of the South meant religious voters wouldn't be a problem in the West and Northern Plains.

Anonymous #3254 March 23, 2016 7:04 AM  

Bobby Farr, Wisconsin - winner take all - media has reported the population centers are anti-Trump but I've seen no polls - be conservative and say 0/42 Trump

Wisconsin is WTA by congressional district, and the most recent Marquette poll from 2/20 has Trump up by 10, for what that's worth. He'll get some delegates from WI, I'd guess half or more.

Blogger Student in Blue March 23, 2016 8:11 AM  

@72. dienw

Honestly I think everyone expected Cruz to take Utah, and there's no sense making a big deal about any possible shenanigans right now since it's nowhere close.

If there's questionable behavior, collect that data, and collate it with any other questionable behavior to make a stronger case.

Blogger Akulkis March 23, 2016 11:55 AM  


Unfortunately, you cannot shut down the USPS. It is specifically mandated in the Constitution.

What is ridiculous, is outlays for necessities, such as Department of Defense are termed "discretionary" spending, while outlays for UNCONSTITUTIONAL projects, such as EVERY SINGLE WELFARE PROGRAM are called "entitlements."

We need to get control of the language again.

Blogger Stan_qaz March 23, 2016 5:18 PM  

Interesting reading on what a Utah caucus looked like:

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