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Friday, July 29, 2016

State polls vs national

Nate Silver of 538 addresses the discrepancies while explaining why his systems are, by his own account, "bullish on Trump":
Another tricky question is how to reconcile state polls with national polls. For example, there have been no polls of Pennsylvania over the past two weeks, during which time Clinton’s lead has evaporated in national polls (and often also in polls of other states, where we’ve gotten them). The FiveThirtyEight model uses what we call a trend-line adjustment to adjust those those old polls to catch up to the current trend. That’s why our polls-only forecast shows Pennsylvania as a tossup even though Trump has only led one poll there all year. Those older polls came from a time when Clinton led by 5 or 6 or 7 percentage points nationally, and they generally showed her up by about the same margin in Pennsylvania. Now that the national race is almost tied, it’s probably safe to assume that Pennsylvania is very close also. Some of the competing models don’t do this, and we think that’s probably a mistake, since it means their state-by-state forecasts will lag a few weeks behind, even when it’s obvious there’s been a big shift in the race.

Bottom line: Although there are other factors that matter around the margin, our models show better numbers for Trump mostly because they’re more aggressive about detecting trends in polling data. For the past couple of weeks — and this started before the conventions, so it’s not just a convention bounce — there’s been a strong trend away from Clinton and toward Trump.
In other words, as I've been saying from the start, it's too soon to tell anything from the state polls. The fact that the trend is towards Trump is apparent, but it's not certain that it is the start of a cascade preference that will lead to the predicted Trumpslide.

However, it is the first required step in the process, so that's a good sign for now.

Labels: ,

86 Comments:

Blogger Cash July 29, 2016 5:08 PM  

All is well

Anonymous Broken Arrow July 29, 2016 5:17 PM  

Bernie supporters are going to stay home.

Undercover 'Hillary Fan' James O'Keefe Assaulted, Thrown To Ground - YouTube

Blogger dh July 29, 2016 5:21 PM  

> Some of the competing models don’t do this, and we think that’s probably a mistake, since it means their state-by-state forecasts will lag a few weeks behind, even when it’s obvious there’s been a big shift in the race.

This is why I don't like Nate Silver. This is a feature, not a bug. The goal is not to make a fast prediction, the goal should be to use data, actual data, to make the best prediction.

Secondly, it's not true that there aren't any PA polls. There are. I saw one today that was run 7/25 to 7/27 that shows Clinton with a +9 point margin ( http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Suffolk_FINAL_PA_Marginals.pdf).

The race hasn't changed. Minor shifts in opinions around events have yet to flip any states reliably from one direction to another. It is historically and mathematically likely that Trump will not pick up another state from today till the election.

Unless you want to be like the "shellshocked" Gov. Romney (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/), who didn't know he was going to lose until Pennsylvania was called early in the night of election day, start looking at better predictors than Nate Silver, who can't help put his thumb on the scale.

I may have a good chance this weekend to rebut your thesis about not looking at state polls "yet". The data is not nearly as unreliable as you think.

Anonymous Elipe July 29, 2016 5:26 PM  

How do you know that preference cascade hasn't already hit? People don't really want to be publicly outed for voting Trump. Not with BLM thugs running around, shitlibs keying cars belonging to Trump voters, people losing their jobs for being Trump voters, family division issues, etc.

Trump has the vote of the silent majority.

Blogger Timmy3 July 29, 2016 5:30 PM  

Sounds like Nate is guessing. He really doesn't have the data. He doesn't know. Nate should be funding polls in the battleground states like PA that hasn't had a recent poll. I'm just getting over the good news at how smoothly the Democratic Convention went. Oddly, the expectation is Hillary might not get a bounce. This is still Hillary's election to lose from the built in advantage of more heavily populated Blue States.

Blogger Were-Puppy July 29, 2016 5:31 PM  

So many doing things to deprogram the proggy cult.
BB and the Clinton Cash movie.
Dinesh and Hillarys America
Wikileaks dumping those emails
Bills prey from the old days stepping forward
Memes about Hillary flying around left and right

Everyone fighting in their own way, maybe as an over all effort, will help to power the preference cascade. Once something like that starts, it must be similar to the first domino dropping.

Anonymous Broken Arrow July 29, 2016 5:37 PM  

The race hasn't changed. Minor shifts in opinions around events have yet to flip any states reliably from one direction to another. It is historically and mathematically likely that Trump will not pick up another state from today till the election.

If this is true, then the Republicans are finished for the presidency and the EV college is more or less static. I don't believe for a minute that Jeb! was going to flip a bunch of states red which Trump cannot.

Perhaps it's my own personal bias that I'm not wanting to believe our demographic fate has already arrived, but if you are correct dh then it is most certainly over for a generation at least.

Anonymous Sam the Man July 29, 2016 5:41 PM  

DH, look at this state poll

seems to indicate trump might be doing better here in PA then the Suffolk poll indicates

http://axiomstrategies.com/abc/

OpenID b1bae96e-6447-11e3-b6bb-000f20980440 July 29, 2016 5:44 PM  

Freshly minted 18 year old, Malia Obama, skipped Hillary's speech at the convention in order to spend time at Lollapalooza in Chicago listening to a Norwegian DJ.

Now if I were, as my mother professed two days early, inspired by the likes of Hillary, and had the opportunity to not only witness history be manufactured, but even take 5 hours out of my life to provide some nice go get'em grrl pwr optics for my preferred candidate I would do that.

Per chance she has the Trump tingles?

Of course, none of the Obama's were present for that, and they couldn't even keep Billy Boy awake during it. What are the odds any of the Obama or Bill himself votes for her?

Blogger tz July 29, 2016 5:45 PM  

One of the big problems this year is "likely" voters or those who voted last round. The Monster Vote is likely to come out and crush CrookedHillary.

Blogger pyrrhus July 29, 2016 5:45 PM  

It doesn't pay for Trump voters to disclose their plans to 3d parties, so Trump support will generally be underrepresented in polls....not good news for the HillBeast....

Blogger David-2 July 29, 2016 5:46 PM  

Reading the article shows exactly what I expect: A bunch of hand-waving to explain why they take the results of polls, do this or that kind of averaging, kill a goat and read its entrails, apply weights to different averages, chew some peyote, throw out some outliers, publish that, then do it again with different averages, weights, outliers, and goats at different phases of the campaign. In other words, make it up as you go along but cover your tracks with some mathematical sounding baloney.

Anonymous Steve July 29, 2016 5:47 PM  

People don't really want to be publicly outed for voting Trump. Not with BLM thugs running around, shitlibs keying cars belonging to Trump voters, people losing their jobs for being Trump voters, family division issues, etc.

This is why the pollsters in Britain thought Remain were dead certs to win. The media and political class made out that supporting Brexit meant you were a racist in favour of stabbing young female Members of Parliament.

So a lot of folks just lied to the pollsters and voted LEAVE (PS - FUCK YOU!) in the privacy of the polling booth.

From what I can tell, the vitriol aimed at Trump and his supporters is worse than the harrassment of Leavers. Nobody got beaten up for attending a Leave rally.

OpenID b1bae96e-6447-11e3-b6bb-000f20980440 July 29, 2016 5:52 PM  

@13 Next time around Silence won't be enough. If you aren't actively posting pro-Hillary FB memes you will be branded guilty of badthink and attacked accordingly.

Anonymous LastRedoubt July 29, 2016 6:02 PM  

@Steve

This is why the pollsters in Britain thought Remain were dead certs to win. The media and political class made out that supporting Brexit meant you were a racist in favour of stabbing young female Members of Parliament.

Brexit still causes butthurt.

Know someone who's been going on about a "what's the matter with Kansas"-style TED-talk about how the areas that voted most hard-core brexit were "rural" areas he nor anyone he knew visited for more than a couple days of their entire lives, and that it was obvious that they had to do more to get to these people, talk to these people, as they obviously hadn't been exposed to much different and didn't realize what they were missing.

Blogger Titus Quinctius Cincinnatus July 29, 2016 6:04 PM  

DH, look at this state poll

seems to indicate trump might be doing better here in PA then the Suffolk poll indicates


That one doesn't count. Because.

Blogger Cail Corishev July 29, 2016 6:15 PM  

If this is true, then the Republicans are finished for the presidency and the EV college is more or less static. I don't believe for a minute that Jeb! was going to flip a bunch of states red which Trump cannot.

Definitely not. If Hillary wins, as horrible and clearly globalist left as she is, that will be confirmation that the country was already lost, there was nothing that could be done through the political process to save it, and it's time to dig in for the collapse if you weren't already.

But the one thing I'm sure of about this election is that it's not just like the others, and we can't count on voting blocks to act according to past behavior, so basing predictions on that seems like a bad way to go. I realize the alternative is to do more educated guessing, which may allow more wishful thinking to slip in. But I'd rather base my guesses on an assumption I think is true than one I think is false.

Blogger Diego Del Sol July 29, 2016 6:26 PM  

When will we know whether there is a post-convention bump ( up or down or none)? I'm sure the media spin will be working over-time, but I'll come here to get help parsing through the noise.

Anonymous Yay Trump July 29, 2016 6:27 PM  

There's leaked internals showing Trump has more support than the public polling was indicating back in April, dead tie stuff. So we can take the panic of the DNC as not-panic or we can believe that "historically" a woman ran against a man in an American Presidential election. Historically, Romney was supposed to upset an incumbent due to the moribundness of the economy. That didn't happen. So pardon me for not taking historical arguments seriously when unexpectedly revealed data suggests otherwise, along with "priors" as the hugely partisan Sam Wang would call them.

Blogger Unknown July 29, 2016 6:30 PM  

@14
This is fine with me, because when that happens those persecuted will be perfectly comfortable to reciprocate in kind. I look forward to it, in fact.

Anonymous Steve July 29, 2016 6:37 PM  

LastRedoubt -

Brexit still causes butthurt.

Oh yes. It took me by surprise actually. I knew they'd be salty, but the sheer volume of their hate and fear took even me by surprise.

Also the international reaction. Lots of people in countries that aren't even in the EU were visibly upset.

I think it's because this is the first serious setback The Narrative has suffered in years. And the progressive Narrative requires that progressivism win in all places at all times, lest people start thinking maybe there's no such thing as a "right side of history".

Know someone who's been going on about a "what's the matter with Kansas"-style TED-talk about how the areas that voted most hard-core brexit were "rural" areas he nor anyone he knew visited for more than a couple days of their entire lives, and that it was obvious that they had to do more to get to these people, talk to these people, as they obviously hadn't been exposed to much different and didn't realize what they were missing.

Lol. I live in one of those predominantly rural and small town areas. A couple of things struck me:

* how little fuss there was. There was nothing in the way of campaigning round here, just a few leaflets through the door. I didn't see any posters in the windows of my neighbours. There was a bit of chat about it in the office, but nothing heated.

The news media was a bombardment of scare stories for months, then people just calmly turned out on referendum day to kick the EU, the political class, and the mass media in the goolies.

* How irrational the Remain camp was. They were emotional during their campaign, but when they lost, they went mental. Celebrities calling people cunts on Twitter. National newspapers threatening unspecified but ominous sounding "consequences" for political figures who supported Leave. Widespread demands for a second referendum, older people to be denied the vote, London to secede, etc.

It turned out Remain had nothing to do with their exoteric arguments about trade. It was about identity, with the EU somehow representing modernism, cosmopolitanism, and progressivism in these people's minds. Nobody would get that worked up over tarrifs.

* British people don't tend to be demonstrative about our patriotism, but I've seen more British flags around than ever before. There's something in the air.

I'm looking forward to the tsunami of butthurt that will follow Mr Trump becoming president. The BBC and Guardian will be on suicide watch.

Blogger bob k. mando July 29, 2016 7:03 PM  

(((Nate Silver)))
our models show better numbers for Trump mostly because they’re more aggressive about detecting trends in polling data.



what a lying sack of crap.

he's not "detecting" anything that anyone else isn't detecting.

what he IS doing is jiggering with old, *known* results on PROJECTIONS extrapolated from newer polling results from DIFFERENT localities.

what ((( Nate Silver ))) is saying is that his 'models' are about as scientific as AGW.

but, hey, it's cheaper than actually paying a company to actually make a phone call and actually get real polling results and we all know how tight fisted Eskimos are so i guess it's all good.

perhaps there are good, logical, time proven reasons to make some of these extrapolations? that can be debated, but the only thing i can see is that (((Nate Silver))) has been wrong about every single one of his Trump predictions this cycle.

so the science says, "fuck off and die."

Blogger SirHamster July 29, 2016 7:14 PM  

Steve wrote:Nobody got beaten up for attending a Leave rally.

Or shot.

Blogger Aeoli Pera July 29, 2016 7:15 PM  

He must read VP. A number cruncher with sense is a potent combo.

Anonymous Yay Trump July 29, 2016 7:16 PM  

His regular polling-based forecast still shows Hillary up. The nowcast is just a traffic-driver.

Blogger Aeoli Pera July 29, 2016 7:18 PM  

The other possibility is that there's a common third source, but the timing is way too close to be strictly coincidental IMO.

Anonymous Shawnnn July 29, 2016 7:18 PM  

Many poll respondents are embarrassed to say they are supporting Trump, because the media says all Trump supporters are evil racists. Trumps support is under-measured.

Blogger VD July 29, 2016 7:24 PM  

The race hasn't changed. Minor shifts in opinions around events have yet to flip any states reliably from one direction to another. It is historically and mathematically likely that Trump will not pick up another state from today till the election.

Certainly, on the basis of these early polls. Of course, at this stage, Dukakis was still ahead of Bush Sr. I don't think we can even BEGIN taking the polls seriously for another 30 days, which really means 45 days.

I may have a good chance this weekend to rebut your thesis about not looking at state polls "yet". The data is not nearly as unreliable as you think.

I see that as more of a defense of your thesis of the early validity of state polls versus my rebuttal, but either way, I'll be quite interested to see it. I know you're better at the raw data regressions than I am, so, if nothing else, it should be educational.

I'd be more concerned about the Pennsylvania poll if it weren't for the fact that a) it is 7 points less than previous Clinton polls and b) the DNC was being held in Philadelphia.

Anonymous Noah Nehm July 29, 2016 7:30 PM  

Could be true, who knows? Still, I really have a hard time trusting Nate Silver or anyone else that was on the Journolist list-serv for that matter.

Anonymous VFM 9054 July 29, 2016 7:30 PM  

Of potential relevance is the fact that several years ago, I was doing polling for a local political campaign, and something like 60% of the people I called refused to say who they were voting for on the basis that it wasn't anyone's business but theirs. So, I don't know how good any poll is, given that it is biased toward people who are willing to share who they plan to vote for.

Anonymous GracieLou July 29, 2016 7:34 PM  

The convention acceptance speech rating numbers are telling. Trump: 34.9 million vs. Hillary: 33.3 million.

You factor in that the media force fed the DNC on every channel, and hyped Hill's speech like the second coming of Rosa Parks and the fact that many of us only tuned in to see a possible epileptic fit, excrement blow-out, or BernBot citizen's arrest and those are really bad numbers.

Die hard Trump haters wouldn't sit through an hour speech at all. And let me tell you people, if I hear another woman say, "I won't vote for Trump! He comes off like such a jerk!" So help me, the next time I hear it, and I don't care if a nun just said it, I'm saying, "So you wouldn't date him, that's what you're saying? He's not somebody you'd f*ck? And you do realize this is why women weren't ever allowed to vote? Go ahead, prove them right sugar tits!" Oh yeah, I'm stealing that from Nate.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 29, 2016 7:46 PM  

OT
I'd like to thank whoever suggested in last week's Nate Silver discussion attending a vintage base ball game.
My family and my daughter's family attended on at Ft Vancouver last weekend and had a blast.

The Southrons will be glad to hear that the Occidental Base Ball Club of Vancouver blew out the Sherman Club of the 1st Oregon Volunteer Infantry, 18-3.

Blogger Cicatrizatic July 29, 2016 7:46 PM  

"It is historically and mathematically likely that Trump will not pick up another state from today till the election"

This is based on the assumption that this election will be like 2004, 2008, and 2012.

Anonymous johnc July 29, 2016 7:57 PM  

With the conventions out of the way hopefully Trump will dial it up to 11 and get some more dirt on Crooked Hillary released.

It is disturbing though that her crookedness is so transparent and yet she still has as much support as she does. It's pretty convincing evidence that working within the system isn't going to be too fruitful. There are too many evil people in the voting pool. After 30 years, could any voter be ignorant of how corrupt Hillary is? I don't think so.

Blogger Gaiseric July 29, 2016 8:01 PM  

Coincidentally (or maybe not) this story just went up on Breitbart. http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2016/07/29/reuters-ipsos-poll-change-methodology/

Blogger James Dixon July 29, 2016 8:14 PM  

> How do you know that preference cascade hasn't already hit? People don't really want to be publicly outed for voting Trump.

I remember in one of the Reagan races, I believe the one against Carter, exit polling during the day was showing his opponent with a big lead. Their explanation when Reagan won: They must have lied to us.

Actually, in retrospect it was probably that the working class voters that overwhelming went for Reagan were at work when they were conducting those polls.

> Perhaps it's my own personal bias that I'm not wanting to believe our demographic fate has already arrived, but if you are correct dh then it is most certainly over for a generation at least.

If he's correct then the majority of the states are now disenfranchised, and have no effective representation in the presidential vote. That will either lead to changes in the way the vote is calculated or will lead to secession. Not having a say in who runs the country isn't something Americans will tolerate.



Anonymous dh July 29, 2016 8:18 PM  

JD, the problem, such as it is, is that going back to Reagan v. Carter for polling modeling is a big jump in standards and methodology. At that time, you had a few major pollsters doing fairly unscientific, unrigorous analysis. There was little or not voter modelling.

> Not having a say in who runs the country isn't something Americans will tolerate.

LOL. Thanks, I needed a good laugh.

Blogger dh July 29, 2016 8:20 PM  

>This is based on the assumption that this election will be like 2004, 2008, and 2012.

Yes. 2000 was close to the beginning of the availability of widespread publicly released state-based polling. It's also when I started watching national elections more closely than average news. So I would include 2000 in that equation as well.

Blogger James Dixon July 29, 2016 8:31 PM  

> JD, the problem, such as it is, is that going back to Reagan v. Carter for polling modeling...

I wasn't dh. That was merely a historical note indicating that there had been speculation that people might be reluctant to reveal their voting preference in the past.

I know polling has changed completely since the 1980's. Though you are incorrect about them being unscientific/unrigorous. The were using what was at the time state of the art methods. These weren't fly by night companies.

> LOL. Thanks, I needed a good laugh.

We have fought two wars over the matter, dh. Do you really think we've changed that much? My people haven't. I doubt most of the rest of rural America has either.

Not that it matters, if you're correct and the current ruling cabal stays in place, we're looking at no more than 50 years till we have an economic armageddon that takes down the whole system.

Blogger James Dixon July 29, 2016 8:34 PM  

Oh, this article concerning potential voting fraud might be of interest to folks reading this thread: http://www.consortiuminfo.org/standardsblog/article.php?story=2016072911422978

Yeah, he's obviously anti-Trump, but his points are worth checking out.

Anonymous Yay Trump July 29, 2016 8:34 PM  

The +9 PA poll was 48% D and half of that from West Philly. This is not exactly representative of PA voting patterns.

It is very possible Trump could lose narrowly, but undecideds haven't been this high in any election since 2000, IIRC. And given that independents are typically breaking 60/40 or even 65/35 for Trump in a lot of polling, it's hard to see how those undecideds all break evenly or towards Clinton. Trump won in the primaries through broad-based support, which didn't always net him a win. He currently shows signs of broad support even in blue states, polling closer in those states than Romney or McCain did, including running ahead in some of them in recent polling.

I think it's too soon to say Trump in a landslide based on data, but I also think it's too soon to say that about Hillary winning, since her support appears to be eroding in many states rather than strengthening. It's a race and Trump may well not close the gap in time, but Romney and McCain never got near -3 or +2 in OR, or ahead in NH and NV at this point in the race.

As for me, I'm expecting a Florida house from one of Sam Wang's commenters, as I think non-poll factors will show Trump winning, probably narrowly due to the broad support pulling him just enough ahead to cross 270.

Blogger dh July 29, 2016 8:36 PM  

JD, yes "America" has changed that much. It's been 100% turnover from the last we fought any war for anything.

Plus, the side fighting for freedom last time lost, and lost badly. The entire way of life has failed.

I'm not saying that it's impossible, but you are badly outnumbered. I live in Florida; all of the population growth of white people in the entire country, including white people who don't vote for nationalists, for an entire year, all of that, was overrun by Hispanic and Latino population growth in just Florida in just 3 months.

2008 and maybe 2012 was the last chance for an election to change something. George W. Bush may be the last Republican president as we know the term. Instead of using wedge issues to get policies like No Child Left Behind and other nonsense passed, he should have made incentives for white people to have children. Those babies conceived in 2001 and 2001 would be able to vote in 2020. Instead, he blocked immigration reform, wasted time and votes worrying about gays, conserved nothing, and lost everything.

But hey at least we got John Roberts on the SCOTUS.

Anonymous BigGayKoranBurner July 29, 2016 8:55 PM  

Bernie supporters are going to stay home.Undercover 'Hillary Fan' James O'Keefe Assaulted, Thrown To Ground

I am surprised he found so many faggots against HilLIARy

Per chance she has the Trump tingles?

Wrong Obama https://www.rt.com/usa/353000-obama-brother-voting-trump/

supporting Brexit meant you were a racist in favour of stabbing young female Members of Parliament

Actually telling people to bring pens to vote instead of pencil to prevent voter fraud is what did it.

talk to these people, as they obviously hadn't been exposed to much different and didn't realize what they were missing

It's being around die verse city that makes you racist.

Anonymous Lawyer Guy July 29, 2016 8:56 PM  

Michigan had a vote to outlaw affirmative action, people who were in favor were being branded racists. The usual.

Polling just before election showed only 41 percent in favor, actual vote was 58 percent.

That was 10 years ago. I assume people are even more careful now.

Blogger Groot July 29, 2016 9:00 PM  

OT: Adriana Lima. Just saying.

Blogger James Dixon July 29, 2016 9:09 PM  

> JD, yes "America" has changed that much. It's been 100% turnover from the last we fought any war for anything.

Not here, dh. I can't speak for most of the rest of the country.

> The entire way of life has failed.

Been suppressed, yes. Failed, no.

> but you are badly outnumbered

Just like last time then. But this time we know what kind of war we'll be fighting.

Blogger JCclimber July 29, 2016 9:18 PM  

Not too many years Kalifornia voted to deny illegals the right to be taught in Spanish in public schools, and to define marriage as man and woman.

Polls were inaccurate in both of those Propositions. Kalifornia is filled with idiots, but there are a lot of Trump and Sanders supporters here who despise Clinton. But the high profile blue zones love, love her pants-suited butt, so that is where all the attention goes.

Blogger Were-Puppy July 29, 2016 9:32 PM  

@14 b1bae96e-6447-11e3-b6bb-000f20980440
@13 Next time around Silence won't be enough. If you aren't actively posting pro-Hillary FB memes you will be branded guilty of badthink and attacked accordingly.
---

Speaking of Hitlery Memes, did you guys see this contest at Infowars?

http://www.infowars.com/infowars-flash-contest-hillary-devours-constitution-bill-of-rights/

They say $1000 to the winner :P

I submitted a few, and I'm not that good with the tools.

https://i.imgflip.com/186961.jpg
https://i.imgflip.com/185zti.jpg
https://i.imgflip.com/185zqi.jpg

Blogger Were-Puppy July 29, 2016 9:39 PM  

@31 GracieLou

The convention acceptance speech rating numbers are telling. Trump: 34.9 million vs. Hillary: 33.3 million.
---

And those numbers don't count people who have cut the chord. There are always plenty more people streaming Trump. Probably at this moment, since Trump has somehow discovered the secret to never ending energy.

Blogger Were-Puppy July 29, 2016 9:41 PM  

@32 Snidely Whiplash

The Southrons will be glad to hear that the Occidental Base Ball Club of Vancouver blew out the Sherman Club of the 1st Oregon Volunteer Infantry, 18-3.
---

Finally, that foreign aid has arrived!

Anonymous BGKB July 29, 2016 9:42 PM  

Black veteran shot for supporting TRUMP https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RuMWytxjlg4

Blogger Robert Divinity July 29, 2016 9:44 PM  

The DNC theory has been announced: the communists have given up on the white working class and assume that each vote lost in Scranton will be offset by two white middle class women in the 'burbs of Philly. I think this is horribly wrong, and a realignment election along the lines of white nationalism is underway. This obviously is hard to model. If I'm correct, Trump will win in a blow-out.

If this goes as I think, look for the left-wing to make a full-court press to eliminate the Electoral College and institute a direct election of president if it regains power. There may be a permanent white lock with shifting minority alliances, primarily Asian, for the immediate future. I previously agreed with dh that 2012 was the last hurrah but now think Trump overturned that applecart at least for the immediate future.

Blogger Doom July 29, 2016 9:54 PM  

It is entertaining to watch you finagle your bet. I called it for Trump quite a while ago. I don't watch speeches. Unfortunately they do have a large impact. Even with people knowing that speeches are the beauty contest for the ears. Which... yeah. If it sways you, I guess. And then I am called less than logical? It is much like those who suggest his wife will be pretty to look at. Okay, and that will help, politically, how?

Anyway. Just lunk your bet on the table and let it ride. If at some point you see a reason to pull it, cool. Always a bit of a loss for letting it ride. That is why the house never loses. But whether something supports it or not? I don't know. Are you trying to convince others, are you attempting to create a formula for the future, are you reassuring yourself, are you dabbling in pseudo probabilities or stats (I don't know the areas well enough to know which might be in play in your number dances)?

Oh, have fun. Far be it from me to rain on the parade. I'm just... chuckling about it. Trump, and I wrote that before he won the nomination I believe. If I have reservations, and always will. Then again, I will have reservations regarding Christ. Oh... He knows. He also knows I'll still do what is needed. Anyway...

Anonymous BGKB July 29, 2016 10:07 PM  

Darn it NC voter ID law overturned because niggers are too stupid and lazy to get ID
http://www.thenewcivilrightsmovement.com/davidbadash/breaking_citing_discriminatory_intent_federal_appeals_court_overturns_nc_voter_id_law

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents July 29, 2016 10:34 PM  

OT but get some popcorn anyway.

Judge blasts Nick Denton for lying about Gawker stock value plus Nick was playing with bankruptcy as well.

So... Hulk Hogan cannot be stopped from enforcing the verdict Just hand it all over, Nick.

Ah. Time for a drink.

Anonymous BGKB July 29, 2016 10:37 PM  

Tasty schadenfreude http://thelibertarianrepublic.com/democratic-delegates-outraged-chick-fil-served-dnc/

Blogger Harold July 29, 2016 11:00 PM  

"After 30 years, could any voter be ignorant of how corrupt Hillary is? I don't think so.

You would hope not, but I know several. They rely on TV for news, not radio, not the internet, not even newspapers. What they "know" is that all the scandals against Clinton are driven by evil Republicans, and none have ever been proved, so therefore, she's not guilty or corrupt or anything. She's just doing what everyone else does. What they "know" is wrong, but they also seem to suffer from head in sand syndrome. They DON'T WANT TO hear anything bad, so they don't.

Blogger Keith July 29, 2016 11:29 PM  

You write like a faggot

Blogger Keith July 29, 2016 11:30 PM  

(Doom @ 53)

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY July 30, 2016 12:22 AM  

"Sounds like Nate is guessing. He really doesn't have the data. He doesn't know."
What else is new ?
"Perhaps it's my own personal bias that I'm not wanting to believe our demographic fate has already arrived, but if you are correct dh then it is most certainly over for a generation at least."
If we are done for, a generation won't make people wake up, as a matter of fact it will be far worse.
"Kalifornia is filled with idiots,"
The rest of the country knows that, it goes without saying.

Anonymous Hyperion July 30, 2016 12:30 AM  

That PA Suffolk poll is weighted all wrong with the D/R/I split. It has D 48%, R 39%, and I 11%, when in reality the 2012 exit polls showed 45% D, 35% R, and 20% I. In other words, even if we assume the same mix of voters as 2012 (which is a bold assumption honestly), independents are dramatically undersampled. Independents break strong for Trump.

Blogger Groot July 30, 2016 12:34 AM  

"Kalifornia is filled with idiots."

And yet we're rich and you're poor. Chicken-scratching and pecking-at-pebbles poor. Humiliatingly poor. Do what I say, boy, yessir, poor. Thankfully, science has an answer, in the cognitive-dissonancionium particle. It explains all, tying it all up in a nice bundle. Look! There's a pebble.

Blogger Unknown July 30, 2016 12:43 AM  

@62
Some in California are rich, everyone else is poor, and the middle class is hollowed out, because the middle class whites have mostly left. I am one of them, and I will _never_ return. When the debt bubble pops, California will be one of the hardest hit states. I will not care in the least, either. That state can lie in the bed they made until they choke on it.

Anonymous Daniel H July 30, 2016 1:34 AM  

@7

>>Perhaps it's my own personal bias that I'm not wanting to believe our demographic fate has already arrived, but if you are correct dh then it is most certainly over for a generation at least.

It may be over until the day 20 years or so from now when the children of blue haired harpie Hilary supporters have lived a life of terror and degradation that they will feel compelled to vote WHITE so as to preserve what little of their lives and freedom they have left.

Anonymous Daniel H July 30, 2016 1:39 AM  

@29
You mean (((Journolist list-serv))). Did you ever take a glance at the roster of (((Journolist)))?

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY July 30, 2016 1:50 AM  

"It may be over until the day 20 years or so from now when the children of blue haired harpie Hilary supporters have lived a life of terror and degradation that they will feel compelled to vote WHITE so as to preserve what little of their lives and freedom they have left."
Whites will be as rare as a queer bull by then going on the path we on now. The time to end this insanity is right fuckin' now.

Anonymous paleopaleo July 30, 2016 2:17 AM  

@63

I'm white, so are many of my neighbors and we're doing swell. The train is a' mighty fine! What you flyover hicks don't get is that the teets are a' flowin' here in Cali, yo!
How dem white folk gonna rise up against the Federal Reserve/police state.
Do fucking something, anything.

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY July 30, 2016 3:29 AM  

"Do fucking something, anything."
DOES PRAYING YOU KALIFORNITARDS BECOMES THE NEW ATLANTIS SOON COUNT ?

Anonymous johnc July 30, 2016 8:38 AM  

@61

PA is also a lot more "diverse" than it was in 2012.

Anonymous EH July 30, 2016 8:59 AM  

Blacks are not going to be quite as enthusiastic about Hillary as they were about Obama. Their turnout is likely going to fall a few points from the 2/3 in 2012, and Trump will take more than 10% of the Black vote, compared to Romney's 7%. But let's say 90%D and 67% turnout for the Blacks. Let's also say the D's do as well a possible with Hispanics and Asians: 80%D, which is +8% and +13% respectively compared to 2012, and both manage 67% turnout though they had a sub-50% turnout in 2012. The D's still lose in a landslide if Whites swing 8 or 9% toward Trump compared to Romney (67% college educated Whites, +8%; 70% other Whites, +9%) and manage the same 67% turnout as the other groups (-10% turnout for C.E.W., +10% for other whites). That modest set of guesses gives an Electoral College vote of 186D / 352R and a popular vote of 47.5% D / 50.8% R (+3.3%). With turnout at 2/3 across the board, Trump still wins with as little as 58% of the college-educated white vote while keeping everything else the same.

Anonymous andon July 30, 2016 9:19 AM  

@ #70 - Asians vote 80% democrat?

that's disappointing

Anonymous Godfrey July 30, 2016 9:30 AM  

The Democrats pay off their rich supporters with billions and they pay off their poor supporters with peanuts. It's a pathetic joke.

It's all about keeping the poor poor and the rich rich. And you in the middle-class? Well your desire to improve yourself is a threat to the system.

Anonymous Godfrey July 30, 2016 9:36 AM  

@20
Really? I totally expect the corporate media to start pushing a "racism" narrative 24/7 two months before the election to get out the black vote. However I think a lot of Blacks have caught on to the scam.

The scam being that supports like Goldman Sachs get paid billions while Blacks get paid "peanuts".

Anonymous Freddie V July 30, 2016 10:33 AM  

What kind of electoral college victory for Trump would constitute a "Trumpslide"?

Blogger Stephen St. Onge July 30, 2016 12:04 PM  

3. dh
>> Some of the competing models don’t do this, and we think that’s probably a mistake, since it means their state-by-state forecasts will lag a few weeks behind, even when it’s obvious there’s been a big shift in the race.

> This is why I don't like Nate Silver. This is a feature, not a bug. The goal is not to make a fast prediction, the goal should be to use data, actual data, to make the best prediction.

Lessee, in 2008 Silver calls 49 out of 50 states correctly. In 2012, he calls 50 out of 50 correctly. But he's not interested in making "the best prediction."

"Ri-i-i-ight."


> Secondly, it's not true that there aren't any PA polls. There are. I saw one today that was run 7/25 to 7/27 that shows Clinton with a +9 point margin ( http://www.realclearpolitics.com/docs/2016/Suffolk_FINAL_PA_Marginals.pdf).

Silver posted his comment "Jul 28, 2016 at 7:30 AM". The poll in question was released on July 28th. Obviously, Silver knew about it before it was released, and lied about it, for his own nefarious purposes.

"Ri-i-i-ight."

> The race hasn't changed. Minor shifts in opinions around events have yet to flip any states reliably from one direction to another. It is historically and mathematically likely that Trump will not pick up another state from today till the election.

> Unless you want to be like the "shellshocked" Gov. Romney (http://www.cbsnews.com/news/adviser-romney-shellshocked-by-loss/), who didn't know he was going to lose until Pennsylvania was called early in the night of election day, start looking at better predictors than Nate Silver, who can't help put his thumb on the scale.

> I may have a good chance this weekend to rebut your thesis about not looking at state polls "yet". The data is not nearly as unreliable as you think.

We shall see.

Blogger Stephen St. Onge July 30, 2016 12:13 PM  

        To my mind, the most interesting thing about the article is not the argument set, but the tone.

        'Please don't hit me for saying Trump's ahead.  It's not my fault that when we put the numbers in the model, they show Trump in the lead!'

        I doubt Silver's as worried about death threats as Scott Adams, but I think he's very concerned about his site being deserted because he makes predictions his readers won't like.

        Which bolsters my feeling that Trump will win.  YMMV.

Blogger GFR July 30, 2016 1:09 PM  

@67
.
You must be talking about some other California. Because in the California that I live in everything outside San Francisco and LA looks like Mexico.
.
At least a dozen cities in the central valley are bankrupt because of unfunded pension plans, and I'm not sure how long the State "teat" will continue flowing with $400 Billion in unfunded liabilities.
.
But you probably consider the central valley to be part of "fly over" country?

Blogger Sevron July 30, 2016 1:29 PM  

If Trump wins and there is a mass resurgence of Nationalism, how does that affect the coming breakup? Let's say he builds the wall and boots out illegals. But in the process, those that remain are more patriotic of all colors (that support the new Nationalist party). I can see that this may make splitting up into ethnostates a longer proposition. The Nationalists will feel like the Left is responsible for our ills (and they are), not minorities per se.

When the split comes, I think there will be a higher priority on ideology, and less on skin color. It will cause damaging infighting to start to turn fire on supporters of the race, at least until well after the Left is expelled and the political situation is firmed up a great deal. And even then, I think there will then be less support for additional war- most k-selected types are more interested in advancing their own families through work than they are purity spirals.

Anonymous SciVo July 30, 2016 3:29 PM  

Sevron wrote:If Trump wins and there is a mass resurgence of Nationalism, how does that affect the coming breakup?

Short answer: that depends. Medium answer: it increases the likelihood of breakups around sub-nationalities, such as Texas and the Confederacy (are there any others?).

Long answer: it depends on the kind of breakup that we're talking about. A resurgence of nationalism and patriotism in general can also inspire sub-nationalities to greater fervor, especially as their interests may be different (such as how Brexit immediately caused Scotland to revisit the idea of breaking off).

However, if the breakup is caused by a need for safety -- because (let's say) the Federal bureaucracy, Congress, and courts all rebel against enforcement of our immigration laws, and the People are increasingly unsafe and angry about it -- then there will obviously be an ethnic component to that anger.

And finally, what if Trump is simply unable to do more than delay the collision with the debtberg? Which let's face it, is pretty damn well unavoidable now that Obama doubled it in two terms -- and when it strikes, no matter how strong American nationalism is at that point, if babies start going hungry, people will get tribal.

But I do agree that as long as we have a functional economy where work can be done, the K-selected will be more interested in doing work than purity spirals. Indeed, I think that is one of the drivers of the dynamic: the progressives have gotten high on their own supply, believe their own slanderous propaganda about whites, and imagine that if we were going to ever get mad then we would've already done it; so they think the absence of white riots means they can safely push as hard as they want, when really it just means they should fear the moment that the work stops.

Blogger Sevron July 30, 2016 5:53 PM  

I don't believe Trump or anybody else can do anything about the debt. The stated debt is almost unimportant, really; the US federal government has promised to pay some $200trillion in gibs over the next 50 years, during which time the entire world is only going to produce about $150trillion in wealth (assuming no economic implosions, which is also unlikely, to say the least). So the federal government is going tits up come what may, and I think Vox's year of 2033 will probably closer than not to being accurate.

What I'm hoping for Trump is his actions will ease the pain. The stronger the border, and the fewer illegals and useless eaters we allow to stay, the less the strife will be. I don't know that the wall will be built though, as the enviro-nuts will sue it every step of the way. We can't even build highways anymore. Perhaps he can simply declare a national security crisis and steamroll them?

Anonymous SciVo July 30, 2016 7:01 PM  

Sevron wrote:What I'm hoping for Trump is his actions will ease the pain. The stronger the border, and the fewer illegals and useless eaters we allow to stay, the less the strife will be.

Don't get me wrong, that and a delay would be a big help to me personally. I only recently figured out what I need to do personally, and it's going to take me some time to accumulate the "cottage industrial" productive capacity that I want, since I'm on step zero (don't even own any land yet).

Anonymous Mr. Rational July 30, 2016 8:46 PM  

Sevron wrote:I don't believe Trump or anybody else can do anything about the debt. The stated debt is almost unimportant, really; the US federal government has promised to pay some $200trillion in gibs over the next 50 years, during which time the entire world is only going to produce about $150trillion in wealth
But who are the gibs promised to?  If it wasn't for Blacks and Hispanics in the USA, the country would be running a budget surplus:

http://therightstuff.biz/2016/05/12/the-racial-tithe/

Mexico has been dumping its own unwanted and those of the rest of the continent on us for decades.  We could just build the wall and then return the favor.  We can see just how far Carlos Slim's money goes to provide welfare for those 80 million or so.

The stronger the border, and the fewer illegals and useless eaters we allow to stay, the less the strife will be.
The only strife we need to worry about is what it takes to throw them out; the rest takes care of itself.

Perhaps he can simply declare a national security crisis and steamroll them?
Declare an immediate pardon for anyone who shoots or kills an illegal alien trespassing on their land, an illegal alien displaying membership in a criminal gang (with e.g. gang tattoos), or who has killed an American.  After the first few the police would stop investigating and prosecutors wouldn't even bother, and the Mexodus would begin.

Blogger James Dixon July 31, 2016 9:12 AM  

> I don't believe Trump or anybody else can do anything about the debt.

When you find yourself in a hole, the first thing to do is stop digging.

Blogger Sevron July 31, 2016 4:05 PM  

I meant that I think the debt is already large enough to be fatal. We are never going to pay it back- there's no chance we'll cut the gibs to grandma, police, and firefighters (their rhetoric), so we will default. I could see it working out like so (which everyone here probably does as well):

When the richest nation on paper defaults, there will be considerable turmoil. As the government starts to crumble, large cities, particularly those with lots of blacks and Latinos, are going to burn. They won't really have an option once the EBT cards stop working since they don't have any skills nor the ability to plan ahead. What I can't figure out is what comes next.

If the military were to step in or the local government, order could perhaps be restored pretty quickly, like a year or so. We'd have to all shake our heads and feel very sad about the carnage, of course, but that'd be about it. In that scenario, you just need a source of clean water or good filters, and a good supply of food, like that emergency stuff you can buy by the bucket. Maybe splurge on a generator in case gas or gasoline is still around enough.

If things go Sort of medium bad, then you need to form explicit mutual defense groups with your neighbors. Roads in and out have to be controlled and a night watch established. An area will have to be designated for body/waste disposal. A lot more emergency food will have to be laid up. People will need to turn as much of their backyards as possible into gardens. If order can be restored in 5 years, this won't be too awful.

In the final scenario, society goes completely to hell. You'll need a farm and enough people to run and secure it. I have almost no means of doing this at the moment.

In all cases, you will need a pistol, a shotgun, and a rifle minimum, I would think. Pick ones that take the most common ammo and have lots of ammo. Get a vest or plate carrier as well.

What am I missing? Where do you all go to learn these things? I'm sure there's a website or three popular with the readers here for this kind of info.

Blogger James Dixon August 01, 2016 4:53 PM  

> I meant that I think the debt is already large enough to be fatal.

Pretty much, yes.

> We are never going to pay it back...

Agreed.

But you still need to stop digging. There's no point in making the problem worse than it already is. We take in over $3T in tax revenues every year. If we simply balance the budget and stop the automatic growth in government spending every year he problem can be resolved.

But I agree that's not going to happen.

Anonymous Mr. Rational August 01, 2016 9:14 PM  

Are you saying we can't eliminate the racial tithe?  Because it sure looks to me like the backswing of the pendulum makes that entirely possible.

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