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Tuesday, September 27, 2016

First Trump-Clinton debate takes

The Democratic line, courtesy of the Cajun Rattlesnake himself, James Carville:
I can't imagine that after what we saw tonight the needle doesn't move some.

He was just bad.

I've talked to a lot of people that have done a lot of research and these sort of instant things, these dial groups. I think what you hear around this panel is pretty much shared by the research that I've seen tonight.

Yeah, she was prepared, she was solid, she did a good job. He just kind of -- as he went further into it... He just -- the further they went, the worse it got. They almost wanted to throw the towel in after 90 minutes. That's enough.
The Neocon take, as per Charles Krauthammer:
It was not exactly the knock out fight that we thought. It was a spirited fight. I think in the end it was something like a draw. But I do believe that the draw goes to the challenger in the sense that Trump did not go over the line. And the very fact he could go 90 minutes on the same stage ultimately elevates the challenger, that's just automatic for any debate of that support.

I think he did allow himself to get very defensive and she exploited that. She kept coming back for things where he wasted a lot of time on taxes, on some of the other issues he felt personally about, and, as a result, he missed a lot of opportunities. She presented herself as she always does. Solid, solid, knows her stuff, not terribly exciting but reliable. I think that is the best she can do. Likable, she couldn't but that is not something within her reach.

He contained himself in the sense that I don't think he committed any gaffes but he allowed himself -- she could find out something personal about him that would make him down rabbit holes at a time when he had wide openings to go after her on e-mails and other items, and let them go.
The Master Persuader impression, from Scott Adams
Trump only had to solve one problem at the debate: Seem less scary. He did. Think about it. Clinton won the debate on points but looked like a recently turned zombie learning to smile for the first time. Trump was Trump. Tie.
My perspective, which should be largely discounted because, as is my habit, I did not watch a single moment of it. Partly because it's not worth staying up for, but also because I think I get a better take on the reaction to the debate by not having any personal impression to discount.

My verdict: a minor Trump victory that will not get in the way of the polls continuing to gradually move in his favor towards the predicted Trumpslide. 

This is a testable conclusion. If I am correct, the polls will continue to move modestly Trumpward. A minor Hillary win will arrest the polls at the virtual tie point that was reported pre-debate. A big Hillary win would start gradually reversing them, and a big Trump win would trigger the preference cascade and see Trump rapidly move into an unassailable lead.

The important thing to remember is that the substance of the debate, the actual words, the stuff that the media discusses, is only about one-third of the effect of the debate. Hillary clearly won the words portion thanks to Trump allowing himself to be distracted and failing to take advantage of the numerous openings she gave him. But with the non-verbal aspect, the candidates each had to meet a separate objective. Trump had to appear convincingly presidential and look as he merited being on the stage. Hillary had to appear healthy and sane.

Trump did the former. While Hillary didn't collapse, go on a coughing jag, or go into full bobblehead mode, words such as "creepy" and "zombie" and "weird"and "Nixon" appeared often enough in reactions to the debate that it is clear she failed the optics element.

Remember, people's reactions are cemented at distinct and unique moments that vary considerably from one person to the next. I was both mystified and amused by the reactions of some people to my debate with Robert Murphy; I couldn't relate to their perceptions of either party and I was not only there, I was one of them! So, don't make the mistake of thinking that it's even possible to isolate two, or three, or ten factors that will trigger the decision response in a viewer, as it could be a weird smile, a convincing phrase, or a momentary look of confusion that does it.

Peter Grant wasn't impressed with either candidate's performance, but noted a substantive distinction between the two:
What did strike me was the contrast between the candidates' approaches to the rest of the world.  Donald Trump was emphatic about protecting American jobs and our national economy, if necessary by renegotiating international trade agreements, restricting immigration, etc.  Hillary Clinton was much more globalist in orientation, looking to admit more refugees, work together with other nations (whatever that means), and so on.  She basically saw the United States as just one nation among many, whereas Donald Trump saw it as the 'first among equals' with the right to put its own interests first.

And Scott Adams's considered conclusion:
The most interesting question has to do with what problem both of them were trying to solve with the debate. Clinton tried to look healthy, and as I mentioned, I don’t think she completely succeeded. But Trump needed to solve exactly one problem: Look less scary. Trump needed to counter Clinton’s successful branding of him as having a bad temperament to the point of being dangerous to the country. Trump accomplished exactly that…by…losing the debate.

Trump was defensive, and debated poorly at points, but he did not look crazy. And pundits noticed that he intentionally avoided using his strongest attacks regarding Bill Clinton’s scandals. In other words, he showed control. He stayed in the presidential zone under pressure. And in so doing, he solved for his only remaining problem. He looked safer.

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225 Comments:

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Anonymous dr kill September 27, 2016 5:07 AM  

I can't watch this sort of crap either. I don't consider it entertaining. The football game was worth watching.

Blogger rho September 27, 2016 5:11 AM  

I didn't watch it.

I didn't need to.

Good Life.

Anonymous 5343 Kinds of Deplorable September 27, 2016 5:22 AM  

Watched it. Thought Hillary was better than expected (though still horrid) and Trump was okay, but unfocused. Worst performance was the moderator.

Blogger Sherwood family September 27, 2016 5:30 AM  

At the risk of sounding conspiracy theorist, I wonder if, per Scott Adams, this was Trump looking decidedly unscary, and having achieved this goal, will go into the next debate ready for blood. Or...maybe he was just off his game, unfocused and unprepared.

Anonymous Haven Monahan September 27, 2016 5:31 AM  

I didn't watch it either but I read many different takes on it. Seems to me they threw the kitchen sink at Trump and while he certainly stumbled, he didn't break. I imagine his staff were frustrated with him for not preparing and so let him go up there hoping he would get smacked around enough to take the next two debates more seriously. That does seem to be what happened.

Another thing is that for the first 30 minutes, Trump did quite well so people who turned the debate off early got a different perspective.

It was probably a slight Hillary win. But she launched all her anti-Trump artillery to get this small win. Next time it will be Hillary on the hot seat and hopefully Trump will learn the best defense is a brutal counterattack. Some brave soul on his staff should point out to Trump that getting defensive is beta!

Blogger SciVo September 27, 2016 5:32 AM  

Scott Adams' application of the three-act dramatic structure is a good idea because what produces tension is the contest, and that's what we have here. And I believe it's fractal, with each part following the same pattern, no matter how small or how large, because it's just fundamental to the experience of competition.

So now we're in act III, but we just had section A, in which (just like in act I) the protagonist had a brief encounter with the opposition and proved his mettle, but also demonstrated some weaknesses, ignorance, and failures of training. Then in section B, just as in act II, he will level up under severe pressure. (I expect Trump to lose the second debate, and also learn a lot.) Then in section C, which coincides with the whole point of act III, he applies what he learned and defeats the antagonist.

Blogger SciVo September 27, 2016 5:33 AM  

Oh and to be clear, didn't watch it either.

Anonymous Steve September 27, 2016 5:39 AM  

I didn't watch it either but like the SDL have read a lot of reactions this morning.

Looks like Trump did OK. He could and probably will do better, but his main goals going into last night would've been not to get provoked into any gaffes, and not to frighten the undecideds by acting mean and scary.

Seems he achieved those goals.

Hillary's main goals would've been not to spaz out and to score a rhetorical killshot on sexistracistliterallyHitlerDrumpf.

Seems she achieved the former but not the latter.

Lots of folks who love Pepe and hate Hillary were hoping for a live televised bullyciding, but that was never on the cards at this stage.

Trump already has their votes. To put him over the top, he needs the nice fluffy rabbity people to come to Daddy.

People pay a lot less attention to what politicians say in these debates than how they say it. From what I gather, Hillary hasn't suddenly stopped looking like a horrible sanctimonious entitled old cunt.

She's not going to win.

Anonymous JAMES September 27, 2016 5:53 AM  

Trump lost because he seemingly didn't prepare for a biased moderator.

Why he would think any moderator would be biased is beyond me.

Blogger Lovekraft September 27, 2016 5:55 AM  

People are forgetting that Trump is handicapped. Has to fight a hostile media, trod through the sjw pearl clutching etc. In the debate he mentioned this: he was campaigning, visiting cities while Hillary was resting, coaching.

So that said, even though he didn't knock her off her game (she is a career politician/lawyer/reptile), his handicap put him in the positive range imo.

Anonymous LES September 27, 2016 5:55 AM  

The questions about tax returns and Obama's birth certificate were media attack questions, not presidential policy questions. Holt performed the assigned assassin role and should be ashamed of himself. Trump should have shamed him for it.

Blogger Lovekraft September 27, 2016 5:57 AM  

So much wasted time at the debate talking about the blacks, birthers. Stuff only relevant to the race hustlers and sjws.

The majority of people are tired of this distraction.

I see it like this: government is like a huge, voracious entity that produces over-regulation, dysfunction, resentment etc. It's fruits are Charlotte, BLM, safe spaces etc.

Trump hammered this point home repeatedly and to those with keen ears, realize that it is government and its cheerleader Hillary that is in complete denial. No humility by the left as to what their policies have wrought.

Blogger Determinator Telemachus September 27, 2016 6:01 AM  

It seems they both did well enough that it isn't going to swing any people that were previously undecided. However, anyone that is looking for an excuse to go to Trump, but because he was unhinged or scary couldn't, now can say that he's shown that he isn't.

Anonymous Difster September 27, 2016 6:06 AM  

This was Trump's first televised debate and for all that, he did pretty well. He had some momentum and then lost it. He certainly missed some opportunities to put Hillary back on her heels.

I expect that he'll be reviewing the game day tape over and over again to make sure he doesn't make the same mistakes twice.

It should also be noted that the moderator hammered Trump with a few questions on his past and didn't do the same to Hillary. He also "admonished the audience" for cheering Trump but not for those cheering for Hillary.

There were no knockouts from either candidate though. I call it a slight advantage to Trump based on the fact that it's his first debate and Hillary's creep factor.

Anonymous Alice De Goon September 27, 2016 6:08 AM  

My take is that Trump held back, not wanting to cause Hillary to short-circuit and thus, create a chance that she might be yanked out before the election. And why give her both barrels now when you still have weeks (an eternity in news and opinion-cycle time,) until the election and a couple of more debates to go? Better to reveal to your (skittish) viewing audience the better angels of your nature.

Trump has this habit of seemingly stumbling, causing despair in his followers (remember the Great Bawwing that followed the Khan fiasco?) And then Trump comes back out stronger than ever making us question why we ever doubted him.

Anonymous John September 27, 2016 6:11 AM  

I was accused of being a shill by your fanatic commenters because I expressed disappointment in Trump's performance.

I still expect Trump to win, I just wanted a bigger victory last night. I don't think Trump will lose any support over it, he didn't make any big mistakes as far as I can tell; I just wanted him to wipe the floor with her whereas I feel he let her off easy and came across as ill-prepared. This could just be him saving himself for the later and perhaps more critical debates.

Anonymous That Would Be Telling September 27, 2016 6:14 AM  

Haven't listened to any of these debates since 1976, but isn't it the common pattern since 1948 that the Democratic candidate, the media and the rest of our betters paints the current Republican Presidential candidate as Literally Hitler, then in the first debate he reveals himself to be a relatively ordinary guy, and this, and a continuation in future debates, frequently significantly helps him?

Anonymous Roman Lance September 27, 2016 6:16 AM  

I saw the debate, live stream, and was in stitches every time Trump took a sip of water. I'm surprised nobody is talking about that. It was golden.
I wonder if some creative genius is going to make a split screen montage her screw ups juxtaposed with him taking a sip of water. He gave the Alt-right meme makers lots of opportunity to create mocking videos.

Blogger Mighty Lou September 27, 2016 6:25 AM  

Trump did well despite being put on the defensive by Lester Holt asking irrellavent questions about his taxes and the birther issue. No one cares about these issues, and they have nothing to do with his ability to lead. I know Lester's job was on the line, but he came off as a overrated sleazy tabloid reporter. Trump was debating two people last night.

Lester took it noticeably easy on Hillary; many of the questions he posed to her were loaded in order for her to spout her prepared talking points, but I think he will still get in trouble for reiterating Trump's remark about her emails.

Hillary had a good strategy: Ignore Donald's attacks and stick to the script. I have a feeling Hillary was given the questions before the debate and was able to prepare statements, which is what she was doing in her week off from the campaign.

But despite Hillary's prepardness, and collusion with NBC, Trump won the debate when he interrupted Hillary within the first 30 minutes and called her an All Talk No Action politician, which is exactly what she sounded like last night, just another politician making empty promises.

Hillary is going to raise taxes, and Trump is going to lower taxes.

Trump is going to deregulate the energy industry in this country while Hillary is going to do everything she can to kill it.

Is there really such a thing as a clean energy super power? No of course not.

Trump needs to articulate how Hillary's plans for the country are going to make us weaker, poorer, more divided, and less secure.



Anonymous LES September 27, 2016 6:29 AM  

When asked repeatedly about Obama's birth certificate I wish Trump had said, "I've answered that question already. Obama has only 4 months left in office. At this point, WHAT DIFFERENCE DOES IT MAKE?"

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr September 27, 2016 6:30 AM  

The consensus on the other sites I read is that it was a either a tie, or Clinton winning narrowly on points. A lot of people were disappointed that Trump didn't hit her harder.

I've no idea if this was intentional or not. Frankly, Trump is only a mediocre vessel for the Alt Right. He tends to ramble, and lacks experience. On the other hand, I think his #1 job was to appear sane and plausible. He appears to have done that.

Anonymous ChildofOldLeech September 27, 2016 6:35 AM  

Clinton did great. She was cool, calm, focused and got under Trump's skin almost immediately, while Trump was often rambling (his answer on nuclear weapons made almost no sense), clearly upset, and his reactions in the split screens did him no favors. Not to mention his constant attempts at interrupting. Trump seriously does not seem capable of just brushing it off when people say he's not as wealthy as he is, which is an amateur move. I would have thought the first thing his people would have told him would have been, "Dude, she's going to hit you on not being as rich as you claim. Just laugh it off." He can't seem to just ignore petty stuff like that, though, which is very childish. She definitely won the debate. Although, I actually think she was too reserved. I wish she would have acknowledged once or twice when Trump was rambling to the point of being non-sensisicle (i.e. the nuclear weapons answer).

Honestly, though, I have long ago given up thinking that any of this will matter. People seem to see what they want when it comes to Trump, regardless of what he does. And a large number of people seem to be under the impression that having a plumber do heart surgery on you is the way to go: because fuck those elitist heart surgeons with their fancy liberal educations! So I think Hillary will only win if she shores up her own base as I don't think she is going to pull many Trump supporters. We'll see if this is enough to do that.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 27, 2016 6:38 AM  

Women are terrors when on the offensive, and that is why God gave us Game

Anonymous Difster September 27, 2016 6:41 AM  

I'm surprised more people aren't talking about how much Hillary was blinking. Watch Hillary, especially as Trump was speaking; she's like a prisoner in a Vietnamese prison camp trying to signal us in Morse Code.

Blogger Mighty Lou September 27, 2016 6:47 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Justin C September 27, 2016 6:49 AM  

I watched some of it. I was disappointed in Trump's performance. He had so many opportunities to go after her. He ignored a perfect set up to go after Hillary about her Email scandal and spent the time defending himself on his tax returns.

His best moment, from my perspective, was going after her on the economy, in the first 10 minutes of the debate. She defended her husband's economic success in office and all Trump had to do was bring up the colossal failure that is NAFTA. He looked good, he knew what he was talking about, and it knocked her off her feet a little.

The last 10-15 minutes were just painful to watch. They both looked awful. Hillary, a little less so. Trump was almost unintelligible.

Blogger Lobo Util September 27, 2016 6:51 AM  

After watching half the debate I noticed that I was constantly looking at Trump. As Trump concluded I would see Hillary's smile or frown. When Hillary was talking I would listen, but spend at least half of the time looking at Trump. Trump was riveting, Hillary was not. I spent less and less time watching Hillary. I guess carefully watching the alpha male is bred into me.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 27, 2016 6:53 AM  

Trump did well in the first thirty minutes but was horrible in the last sixty.

I don't think he helped himself with the demographic groups he needed to.

Hillary looked like someone who has prepared her entire life for this. She did her homework. She also looked like she was having fun. Trump did not.

Blogger Lazarus September 27, 2016 6:53 AM  

ChildofOldLeech wrote:And a large number of people seem to be under the impression that having a plumber do heart surgery on you is the way to go: because fuck those elitist heart surgeons with their fancy liberal educations!

When this particular surgeon has as many dead bodies on her resume as she does, maybe you have a better chance with a plumber. As Trump said, sure she has experience, all of it bad.

Blogger Mighty Lou September 27, 2016 6:54 AM  

In think Trump hit it out of the park when he was talking about nuclear weapons being the biggest threat to the world and mocked Obama and Clinton for saying it was global warming, pointing out their nonsense policies and priorities.

I'd like to know what statement Hillary was trying to make with her red pants suit. I mean was that her comming out moment where she revealed to the world affirming our suspicions that she really is a full fledged satanist and proud of it?

Anonymous ChildofOldLeech September 27, 2016 6:54 AM  

Lobo Util wrote:After watching half the debate I noticed that I was constantly looking at Trump. As Trump concluded I would see Hillary's smile or frown. When Hillary was talking I would listen, but spend at least half of the time looking at Trump. Trump was riveting, Hillary was not. I spent less and less time watching Hillary. I guess carefully watching the alpha male is bred into me.

What I have said before: folks see what they want to see in regards to Trump.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 27, 2016 6:58 AM  

Also, it was unbelievably stupid for Trump to double down on using stop and frisk and the no fly list to confiscate guns.

Blogger VD September 27, 2016 7:00 AM  

Also, it was unbelievably stupid for Trump to double down on using stop and frisk and the no fly list to confiscate guns.

Agreed. I was astonished when I read that he did that. That was a serious unforced error.

Anonymous Be Not Afraid September 27, 2016 7:05 AM  

Clearly, the Lizard Queen was prepared in the old-fashioned way, just keep speaking those memorized speeches. I thought her blinking at the start was weird, and that horrible grin she got (bug-eyed at times) was scary; it reminded me of the necros in Dead Space, the ones with no lower jaws. I dread seeing an animated GIF of the weird little dance she did towards the end; for a moment, I thought she was going to lose it.

Trump didn't come off as well prepared. He was too defensive much of the time and missed a lot of chances to put the Lizard Queen on the defensive. He was pretty clearly unscripted and plain spoken, which might appeal to those normal humans turned off by the memorized paragraphs so common in these blasted debates. He did have some good moments, but Hillary's body language seemed confident and she acted like she had him where she wanted him. I do hope he learns from his mistakes, because she'd be a catastrophe and I can't bear the thought of looking at and listening to her for the next several years.

My guess is that she didn't lose any voters; Trump lost none or few; but I don't think he swayed many of the "undecideds," how ever many there might actually be, and she probably did better there. The thing with Hillary is, I don't see how she gets above 50%. Too many people hate her too viscerally. We've had to look at her for 20 long years, and you either like or hate her at this point... It's tough to believe there are really many people who haven't already made that decision.

Blogger Nate September 27, 2016 7:06 AM  

i tweeted last night... "What happened was the only thing no one predicted would happen: Nothing."

Ties go to Trump because Hillary's job was to disqualify him or let him disqualify himself.

Neither happened.

Blogger GAHCindy September 27, 2016 7:06 AM  

I thought Trump did ok for the first half, then got bogged down in irrelevant stuff. Not really his fault, since bringing up irrelevant stuff is about all Hillary can do as the incumbent party candidate who is responsible for a huge mess. Everything relevant makes her look very bad. But he took the bait. I'm sure he'll do far better with the next one. He seemed to indicate he was taking the gloves off with his "didn't want to be mean" line at the end. Hillary maybe won on technical points, but she's so off-putting in her personality that I don't see this helping her.

OpenID basementhomebrewer September 27, 2016 7:07 AM  

ChildofOldLeech wrote: And a large number of people seem to be under the impression that having a plumber do heart surgery on you is the way to go: because fuck those elitist heart surgeons with their fancy liberal educations!


This is such a joke it's almost not worth responding to. In your metaphor you left out the fact that the supposed heart surgeon was married to a moderately popular surgeon but has only performed 3-4 surgeries herself in the past 30 years. She killed the patient in 3 of those surgeries and the one she didn't kill didn't end up being cured either. Also, it turns out all of her education has come from quaks that have never performed a successful surgery. Many people might think the plumber has better odds. Especially if he has shown himself to be able to master complex problems in his field.

Anonymous CC September 27, 2016 7:14 AM  

In hindsight, Trump did very well. He mostly refrained from attacking Clinton, apart from once mentioning the email thing when it got a bit hot for him. At the end he made to sure to emphasise "stamina" and said it several times. People will remember that. I think Scott Adams wrote months ago that was a word that he could use as a linguistic kill-shot. He also tried to make himself seem above resorting to insults unlike Clinton and the $200 million she spent on attack ads. It's ironic to anyone who had paid attention to his behaviour up to now, but he wants to pull in the fence-sitters and undecideds who have only been exposed to these ads and the constant media portrayal of him as the big nasty poopoo-headed man.

His reaction to his tax returns really seemed like he was floundering and a failure for anyone who knows what he's capable of in a verbal firefight, but he spent the entire time defending himself rambling about his business success and acumen in very basic terms, which looks evasive and repetitive to his fans, but is a clever way of selling himself to those who know little about him. He also once mentioned as a retort how he didn't like paying taxes which looks like an own goal, but would really connect with American voters who historically have always hated taxes.

One nice little touch was when he jarringly threw in a big word "braggadocio" to explain why he acts the way he does in public; I think he said it was because of the tough NY real estate business or something, but ultimately I think it was his way of revealing to the smarter voters who might still harbour doubts about him, that it's all an act. Which is the same thing I've been trying to tell people who think he's a a clown: "don't believe it, it's just an act(!)"

In the end nobody will really remember this debate, but they will remember that Trump didn't really behave in the role assigned to him. And the stamina thing.

So yeah, once again Scott Adams is spot on about Trump's tactics and approach.

Blogger Brian H September 27, 2016 7:14 AM  

I could not bring myself to watch the cunt live on tv, so I followed it on Twitter.

I said in the prediction post that I just wanted Trump to hold the frame and not fall into hers. In the second half it sounded like he let her and the moderator set/hold onto it and allowed himself to be put on the defensive the entire time.

Even so, people at least can see he's not a monster now. Fix that frame failure, get a barrage of attacks at the ready, study up just a bit, and he can get it done on the remaining two.

Blogger GAHCindy September 27, 2016 7:15 AM  

Oh, and trump was appalling on civil liberties. If Hillary wasn't a million times worse and a terrifying person altogether, he'd have lost me on stop and frisk and the no fly list stuff.

Blogger Orville September 27, 2016 7:15 AM  

As you said, what sayeth the polls. Right now Drudge, CNBC, and Time show that the viewers think Trump won. The MSM talking heads and debate wonks say Hillary won. Which group's opinion matters?

Who cares that he didn't prep like Hillary or Captain Underoos. He didn't go negative first, and he didn't come off as dangerous.

He didn't take advantage of several Hillary openings to beat her to death such as when she was talking about what he was hiding in his tax returns such as a lack of charity. He could have pulled her arms and legs off with the Clinton Foundation charity. I suspect he was intentionally saving that for future debates. I probably won't watch any more of them, but I predict he will be more aggressive in the next two.

Blogger Stilicho September 27, 2016 7:27 AM  

The more Hillary attempts to smile, the more votes Trump will get. The joker-esque rictus-like smirk she wore for much of the performance was rather bizarre and creepy as well. By the end, she just looked tired. Very very tired.

She was at her best when using personal attacks to make Trump defensive. Her delivery of answers was very vanilla, scripted, and obviously rehearsed: the Japanese are now making robots with better delivery, she needs the media to carry a lot of water for her in the next few weeks while she retreats to her lair to recover and to avoid public appearances and speeches (because even squishy leftist voters like the idea of Hillary far more than they like the actual Hillary).
On substance:
Trump promised to make America great again.
Hillary promised to fact check Putin.

OpenID simplytimothy September 27, 2016 7:28 AM  

Remember in the primaries when Trump stumbled in a debate, learned from it and flourished?

I expect the same will happen here.

Trump was quite good in the early stages of the debate. Those that tuned out early got a different impression than those who watched the whole thing.

Cacklepant's word-salad responses are not something I am capable of listening to; when I attempt to, I get annoyed.


Blogger Rick September 27, 2016 7:28 AM  

He doesn't need to please us. He already has our votes. He's trying to attract the ones he doesn't have.

Blogger Salt September 27, 2016 7:29 AM  

Failed to engage. Both of them. It's still Hillary and The Donald, and I really don't see this snooze-fest changing anyone's political opinion of what's best for the country. One down, two to go, and Hillary the more experienced at such an event. The Donald, being a real-estate developer, walked the land for the first time, getting a feel for it. We shall see.

Blogger Nate September 27, 2016 7:29 AM  

"Agreed. I was astonished when I read that he did that. That was a serious unforced error."

yup

also... there were to many shots left on the table. The moderator for example asked hillary about cyber warfare and security... and she talked about how important it all is.

Talk about a perfect setup. it was like batting practice. 100 different ways he could have gutted her like a fish. He could've used the words of the FBI director directly. He could talked about how she put our nation at risk by wandering all over the planet with an unsecured device.

But he just let it go. Didn't even take a swing at it.

honestly I doubt I'll even bother to watch the other debates. To say it was boring would be a gross understatement.

Blogger VoodooJock September 27, 2016 7:34 AM  

Election is 6 weeks away. The average person has an attention span of a gnat. If Clinton won, it won't do her a bit of good because this will be ancient history in November. Hillary needed a big win. She didn't get it. Trump needed to not lose bad. He got it. I think that's why he wasn't aggressive as he could have been. Wasn't the right time for big risks.

Blogger guest September 27, 2016 7:41 AM  

You are just wrong, Vox. You should have watched it. Trump stank. A 7th grader on a debate team would have cleaned his clocks. And he did it to himself.

Blogger Marty September 27, 2016 7:46 AM  

I'd call it a tie. Trump laid up a bit. He had opportunities for home runs but either didn't see the pitches or chose to hold back to not be too rough on the girl and not look too dangerous as Scott Adams has pointed out.

When they were on the topic of cyber security, Trump should have said something like "How can we believe in the cyber security policy of someone who ran an unsecured email server? Let me tell you folks if the folks in Russia, China, and Iran got wind of this they would have tried to hack that server and for all we know they may very well have. Her cyber policies in the past have endangered the security of all Americans...."

Blogger Deplorable Gaiseric September 27, 2016 7:49 AM  

guest wrote:You are just wrong, Vox. You should have watched it. Trump stank. A 7th grader on a debate team would have cleaned his clocks. And he did it to himself.
You don't know what you're talking about. Pat Caddell (a Democrat pollster) data from a Gravis poll suggests otherwise. +2% undecideds landed for Trump after the debate. For Clinton, 0%. No statistically significant change from Clinton to Trump or vice versa.

"Winning" the debate wasn't Trump's goal, so he didn't worry about doing it. He wasn't as good at displaying amused, laconic, patient mastery as I'd have liked. Not only would that have rattled Clinton more, it would have been exactly what he needed to display in a 3D world.

In 2D, of course, he could have completely tore Clinton a new one on her issues, and driven the discussion towards HIS issues. But fewer people than you'd think care about 2D tactics, it appears.

Blogger haus frau September 27, 2016 7:50 AM  

As I was drinking to dull the pain of the lizard queens voice, I can say I heard everything said during the debate but this exchange did catch my attention. Clinton going after him about stiffing workmen on his hotels during bankruptcy and trump responds by saying "well maybe they didn't do a good job."
This may be technically true but coming from a billionaire it sounds terrible. He ought to know better. Playing defense is where he says stupid stuff and everyone observing past debates knows this. He also did get lost in the weeds and failed to redirect into attacking clinton. He did not make any huge gaffes. Hopefully he will address these shortcomings before the next debate.

Blogger dc.sunsets September 27, 2016 7:52 AM  

She looked like a debate team star (Santa Democrat style) & he was unfocused.

Three possibilities:
1. This matters, and it moves the needle toward a dem win (American nation loss.)
2. This doesn't matter at all, the "undecided" won't vote anyway, and Trump wins.
3. Trump idled this debate in order to suck the press into smug overconfidence, and in debate 2 or 3 he pours on the coal, driving her like a tent peg.

There were a ton of opportunities to hammer her that he passed up. This argues that the benefit of the doubt goes to choice #3.

Anonymous trev006 September 27, 2016 7:54 AM  

Lots of people think Trump needed to put this thing away. Lots of people are dumb. Attacks always carry risk and Trump couldn't afford that tonight. Obviously Hillary did well, but of course she will: the moderator was openly in her corner and Trump was putting no real stress on her.

I have to think that was strategy. He had to look presidential, and he did: respectfully calling her Secretary Clinton even though they despise each other. While she calls him Donald like a patronizing schoolteacher. It is absolutely strategic, and I think Trump will absolutely take a different tack in the next debate.

If he does something cute like leave his best shots for the third debate, she won't even participate. He can complain about the debate being cancelled, but that won't matter. The second debate is absolutely key.

Blogger Gapeseed September 27, 2016 7:56 AM  

This might sound crazy, but what was the deal with Hillary touching different sides of her nose with her finger during the last half of the debate? It didn't look like a scratch. She looked to me like she was signaling something, like a baseball manager calling for a hit-and-run.

When Hillary collapsed and she was dragged into her limo, a piece of metal(?) fell from the bottom of her pants. I wonder if Hillary's relatively new taste for ornate tents to wear isn't related to medical devices she's wearing, like perhaps medical pumps controlled from afar, and that she was signaling for a hit.

Either that, or the Yankees strangely ran themselves out of an inning late last night.

Blogger Curlytop September 27, 2016 7:59 AM  

I think Hilldawg's Pharmacologist deserves a raise but it's clear they were cutting it close at the end. I immediately noticed rapid blinking and her smile was creepy.

Trump scored very early by pulling out Hilldawg's condescending, smug demeanor but blew some golden opportunities. I suspect like some said, he didn't need to take a risk so he didn't. However the last 30-40mins was a complete mess for both.

Optics kept Trump from looking worse because Hillary's meds clearly wore off between 9:50-10:05pm. At that point her eyes started drooping and she did that weird shimmy gyration w the slurred "okaaaay." That was downright creepy and odd. The slurring got a bit worse when mentioning her father controlling something(?).

Blogger Werekoala1066 September 27, 2016 8:01 AM  

Trump needs to learn to finish a thought instead of arcing off onto tangents, otherwise he did fine. Noticed Hilarity's handlers stayed within arms reach while she shook hands with the crowd at the end to keep her from falling off the stage.

OpenID paworldandtimes September 27, 2016 8:02 AM  

There is a touch of wishful spin in some of the Trump apologia. I do think he wanted to go gins blazing, which is why at first he attacked and interrupted her a lot, and the unprofessional Empty Black Suit too. But he ran out of stamina; he looked tired and may have had a cold.

He was also thrown off track by his two opponents' niggling on
symbolic inconsequentials.

PA

Anonymous jakob September 27, 2016 8:04 AM  

guest wrote:You are just wrong, Vox. You should have watched it. Trump stank. A 7th grader on a debate team would have cleaned his clocks. And he did it to himself.

Gotta agree. Their debate was almost painful to watch... She was like a goddamn swiss cheese, with how many openings she left, any bloody online right wing commentator with moderately successful YT channel could've handled this better, hell could've wiped the floor with her.

Shamefurr dispray, Donald. Shamefurr dispray.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dcL5bJuFw4A

Blogger Nate September 27, 2016 8:05 AM  

"You are just wrong, Vox. You should have watched it. Trump stank. A 7th grader on a debate team would have cleaned his clocks. And he did it to himself."

the point isn't to win the debate. its to win the election.

Trump's goal was to not lose the election tonight by looking like a bully or a psycho.

That's all he had to do. He did it.

Blogger justthinkin September 27, 2016 8:15 AM  

I thought his most effective moments when he directed a little righteous anger her way. That's what I love about him anyway: he cares that she and Obama are SCREWING UP this country and he wants to fix it. It's the whole reason he's running. I'm reading a lot in the comments that he needs to prepare more. I don't agree. The conversational style we all love about the rallies is wrong for debate. He needs to focus on more succinct answers (stop rambling and stop this "the generals/admirals/ICE/FOP/polls all love me") and turn the tables back to her endless list of criminal activities, each and every time. "This is the bad situation we're in and THIS is what you and Obama did to create it/make it worse." I am confident he's just warming up and will do much better going forward if he starts listening and focusing instead of deflecting and rambling.

Blogger Rusty Fife September 27, 2016 8:16 AM  

Nate wrote:the point isn't to win the debate. its to win the election.

Trump's goal was to not lose the election tonight by looking like a bully or a psycho.

That's all he had to do. He did it


+1 confirmation bias points.

Blogger Chris Mallory September 27, 2016 8:20 AM  

Some said it looked like she was reading during her answers, she was. A little wormy looking guy removed papers from her lectern as soon as the debate was over.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/27/the-cleaner-quick-as-a-flash/

Blogger Nate September 27, 2016 8:20 AM  

"+1 confirmation bias points."

?

no. I had no idea what to expect about the debate. And the one thing i would've bet a lot of money on not happening... happened.


Blogger YIH September 27, 2016 8:21 AM  

That was my take too, draw. Neither did anything to make themselves look bad but neither scored any good hits either. Nothing memorable.
The (((comedians))) and Howard Dean are claiming the sniffling was possibly due to cocaine. I doubt it, allergies, cold, too much A/C, any of those could be the reason.
Less than 12 hours and it's already a meme.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist September 27, 2016 8:21 AM  

Trump has the social media advantage and online advantage this election year as all the online polls--even the ones at liberal sites like Slate and Time--have him winning the debate. That just an interesting aspect of the election cycle this year, as usually the Dems have the social media advantage.

I will be very curious how much this debate moves things at all. Romney did very well against Obama in debate #1, clearly winning it, but it didn't help him at all. I don't even think he got a poll bump from it, did he?

Now, I'm just waiting to see if there will be an "October" surprise dumped on either candidate. Does Wikileaks have some emails? And what might the DNC have on Trump? He is already known for his gaffes and off the cuff remarks, so unless it is something blatantly racist, I don't know if that would be enough to hurt him.

Blogger dc.sunsets September 27, 2016 8:26 AM  

Why does anyone support Trump?
Hillary is batshit crazy enough to stumble into war with a nuclear power.
Hillary promises to invite tens of millions of the 3rd world's cast-offs.
Hillary has openly pledged to pack the SCOTUS with "wise-Latrina"-like ideologues who will spend the rest of their lives as unelected legislators jamming every leftist lunatic notion down our throats, which in the context of what's coming (the bursting of the Bond Bubble) will almost certainly set off a civil war. Affirmative Action "hires" like Sotomayor are just stupid enough to think they can wave a magic wand, ban guns, and YT will just disarm in the face of a massive wave of black-on-Everyone crime. Such clowns think they are King Canute.

Let's see:
Potential for nuclear or civil war, and certainty of immivasion with Hillary Clinton? Check.
Anything else with Donald Trump? Check.

You can't get more obvious than that. All the BS about which candidate's policies will "grow the economy, blah, blah, blah..." is so much political theater, clearly playing to Santa Claus Democrat sensibilities.

Blogger Cataline Sergius September 27, 2016 8:28 AM  

"You are just wrong, Vox. You should have watched it. Trump stank. A 7th grader on a debate team would have cleaned his clocks. And he did it to himself."

Quit panicking. according to the Daily Mail Trump won all of the snap polls except for CNNs...of course.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3809204/Most-snap-polls-Trump-winning-debate-landslide.html

"..., some people view these debates and their candidates like a new car -- ever fearful of the smallest ding.

Look, have you ever had a car that didn't get a ding?

The idea that a candidate has to come through a debate without having had a glove laid on him to win is simply wrong. Its an idea borne of a lack of perspective -- people get so emotionally invested in a win that every single error seems unbearable.

Trump made lots of errors -- I can't believe he brought up taking the oil again, for example -- but Hillary's goal here was to disqualify him.

What did she do? She painted him like every other Republican gets painted in a debate. She did not succeed in extraordinizing him -- making him an extraordinary threat the Republican can not bear.

By repeating the same sorts of attacks lodged at every Republican -- wants to cut taxes, "racist," etc. -- she actually ordinized him.

Trump's demeanor was generally strong and calm. He got rattled a few times. He looked pissy when she was dropping her programmed attack modules on him."

Anonymous NorthernSon September 27, 2016 8:28 AM  

Semi-OT, but what was with the "will you accept a loss in November" question? It was my first time watching a presidential debate, but I don't think this is a standard topic. Are they setting up a soundbite for their narrative if they decide to steal the election?

Blogger dc.sunsets September 27, 2016 8:28 AM  

When Trump didn't equate his starting out with a loan from his family to Hillary Clinton's Cattle Futures bribe I figured he was intentionally holding back.

Anonymous Broken Arrow September 27, 2016 8:29 AM  

Having slept on it, I think it was a very minor victory for Hillary. Trump never recovered from the birther and tax return questions. The last 30 minutes was bad for both and clearly Hillary's meds wore off towards the end.

I doubt the polls will move much at all from this debate.

Blogger hank.jim September 27, 2016 8:29 AM  

Trump did well enough to stay in the game. The expectation of a knockout blow from either Trump or Hillary didn't happen even though the Holt's biased moderating given Hillary many chances. Trump's penchant to dominate the conversation helped him. The thing about fact checking is people are wise to the lies told by Hillary and the media. We discount everything they say. So the winner is actually who gets more floor time. Trump said a lot and seemed stuck at times, but if this was a football game, he had the ball much longer than Hillary.

Anonymous Basket of Deplorables September 27, 2016 8:31 AM  

My thoughts:
TINVOWOOT
I am neither the uninformed undecided nor the deeply torn undecided. Viewed as a debate: Hillary won, due to moderator bias in starting topics, Trumps inability to recognize and get off hostile ground quickly, and Hillary's having done just that. Hillary was tight, prepared, focused, Trump was rambling, often defensive and off topic.

Viewed as part of an election, draw. Hillary looked more presidential, even if a bit off. It was sloppy, but Trump hit her hard and early on being another politician, all talk, no action, why didn't you fix this 30 years ago with all your bright ideas. Mitigated some of the him sloppy, her polished benefits. In a change election, may be effective. Trump certainly was unprepared and unrehearsed, and I expect him to fix that. He missed far too many kill shots, (topic cybersecurity, Trump, I mostly agree with Hillary, it is very important. Wut?) and he spent far too much time rambling defensively about crap he did not need to be talking about like how much money he makes and how great his properties are. Trump should have been better prepared to dismiss what the moderator and Hillary wanted to talk about, and shift into attack mode on the topics he should have been talking about.

Overall, modest Hillary win. Within 2 days, 538 will have it back at at least 61/39 Hillary.

Trump has my swing state vote, but if he wants my local meat space support, he needs to do the work and be much better prepared and polished for the next debate...he needs to make it easier to support him, not harder.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist September 27, 2016 8:34 AM  

Michael Moore was not happy at the end of the debate. It's curious, because he always talks about how people in "Middle America" see things:

His tweets after the debate was over:

"It's over. Trump, the egoist, the racist, the narcissist, the liar, "won." We all lost. His numbers will go up. She told the truth. So what."

and

"Pro-Hillary gloaters doing end-zone dance again when still on 50-yd line. U MUST get it in your head TRUMP IS GONNA WIN and act accordingly!"

LOL. This is a fun, fun election.

http://dailycaller.com/2016/09/27/michael-moore-says-trump-won-the-debate/

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 27, 2016 8:35 AM  

Romney did very well against Obama in debate #1, clearly winning it, but it didn't help him at all. I don't even think he got a poll bump from it, did he?

IIRC he got a 3 or 4 point bump

Anonymous New guy in town September 27, 2016 8:36 AM  

FWIW, I don't think this was a huge win for her, either, considering that if it was, it would be the lead thing on what's trending now on facebook, but it's not. Who knows, most people might have said it was a win for Trump because he looked presidential.

Blogger Student in Blue September 27, 2016 8:36 AM  

My take, for the small amount of cents it's worth:

Hillary studied well, overperformed, and her pharmacologist needs a raise.

Trump came in with only *some* preparation, but was convinced he could crush it with his normal rhetorical jujitsu based on how weak Hillary normally is.

Trump was wrong on that decision, but in the end it's not going to be a gamebreaker since it's only the first debate and Hillary threw pretty much everything she had at this debate hoping it'd break him.

I believe debate #2 is where things will start to heat up: Trump will review this debate, realize his errors, and drastically improve them. Hillary on the other hand will hope that she can continue keeping it together and overperforming.

And as far as I know it's the later debates that really form public opinion, not the earlier ones. I remember reading somewhere that Mittens really crushed Obama on his first debate but that amounted to nothing near the end.

Blogger Student in Blue September 27, 2016 8:37 AM  

Oh, forgot to mention. I think it was essentially a draw, maybe slight Hillary victory.

Blogger Rusty Fife September 27, 2016 8:39 AM  

Nate wrote:"+1 confirmation bias points."

?

no. I had no idea what to expect about the debate. And the one thing i would've bet a lot of money on not happening... happened.



I was confirming my bias.

Blogger dienw September 27, 2016 8:42 AM  

The goddamned bitch had help throughout and was fed the answers as well as had the questions long before the debate. She didn't use the ear buds but used augmented contact lenses.

Anonymous BGKB September 27, 2016 8:44 AM  

I like that fact checkers pointed out how old hilldog is on the fighting IS IS her entire adult life but they are pretending its different from other bad moslems(could also be a crack at Monica oral sex definition of IS IS) Would make a great meme with Bill/Monica as the background. When I talk about ACORN I mean all the names that the organizations run by the same people doing the same things who only changed their name. Fact checkers are saying TRUMP lied about hilldog's support of TPP. I am pretty sure she was reading a script on the podium at times because I was watching her googley eyes.

Anonymous PaulSacramento September 27, 2016 8:44 AM  

As a Canadian I watched this debate as an interested outsider.
Debates don't, typically, win elections, they are more for the "drama seekers" since the candidates tend to be "preaching to their choir".
That said, I expected a seasoned politician like Hillary to do better, much better. That she didn't means that trump, if smart, will only get better in further debates while Hillary, considering she had the experience going for her on this one, will probably remain the same.

OpenID 3ghostninja September 27, 2016 8:48 AM  

I think it's kind of surreal watching my liberal acquaintances act like they give to shits about the Constitution all of a sudden.

Blogger Desiderius September 27, 2016 8:49 AM  

VD,

"Agreed. I was astonished when I read that he did that. That was a serious unforced error."

Is this just (Bill) Clinton-style triangulation, though? He already has the votes of the gun people (who can tell themselves he doesn't really mean it). This gives him an in with the gun-grabbers looking for an excuse to vote for him.

OpenID 3ghostninja September 27, 2016 8:50 AM  

I keep making that error. "two", not "to". Derp...

Proofreading is so 20th century.

Anonymous Avalanche September 27, 2016 9:01 AM  

@41 "He didn't take advantage of several Hillary openings to beat her to death such as when she was talking about what he was hiding in his tax returns such as a lack of charity. He could have pulled her arms and legs off with the Clinton Foundation charity. I suspect he was intentionally saving that for future debates."

Notice, too, how we're ALLLLLLL talking about this? There was a perfect killshot, and we're all wondering about the Foundation and the sleazy crap the Clintons engage in... and he left it lying there in the stage lights, like a stinking carcass in the sun! And we -- and our enemies - are kinda pointing at it and going: "Didn't he see that? Can't he smell it? Why didn't he point at it?"

As Coulter says: you think he has made a yuuuuge mistake -- and then it suddenly turns out to be a brilliant maneuver! (Fer shure, got MY fingers crossed!)

There is enough 'noise' out there in the media about the Foundation; about Saudi and other foreigners getting pay-for-play; about baby-Chelsea making a bazillion $ out of college with no skills and little work; about Haiti and the (what's it? 5%?! of the) donations the Foundation used there? Everyone (both sides) is suspicious of charities, because they nearly all turn out to be frauds -- and the fraud that is the Clinton family personal bank is pretty clear!

I think (I hope?) Trump was intentionally "dodging" the easy shot: he has left it up to every else's confirmation bias to fill in the "why didn't he hammer her on the Foundation?" question.

Blogger SemiSpook37 September 27, 2016 9:02 AM  

Nate wrote:Ties go to Trump because Hillary's job was to disqualify him or let him disqualify himself.

This point is especially significant because the MSM idiots set the bar so damned low for him. They're going to regret that decision.

Like VD, I didn't watch a second of it. My disdain for the D candidate is so strong that I cannot bear even hearing a second of her in real time.

I'm going to liken this campaign to what happened here in Maryland back in 2014. The incumbent Lt. Governor basically dialed in his campaign because he was under the assumption that things were "good" in regards to the O'Malley administration (news flash: they weren't). The first time businessman he ran against had already had an operation in place and was using it extremely well. I wasn't shocked when Larry Hogan ended up with a 4 point victory that November, because he made it a point to be engaged. And now, 70% of Marylanders feel Hogan is doing a great job because he's still ENGAGED.

That's what I see with Trump. He's engaged. He's not a orator or a debater. That's fine. I don't want that. I want someone that's going to put stuff aside and get involved when it requires it.

She proved last night that she'd rather prepare for this stuff than get out and engage others. People saw right through that. It doesn't help when she's taking weekends off to "recover" from campaigning, either. This job's not M-F, 9-5. It's 24/7/365.

If all that she was able to do was work to a tie last night, this campaign is just about over...for her. Again, they're going to regret that decision.

Blogger VD September 27, 2016 9:05 AM  

You are just wrong, Vox. You should have watched it. Trump stank. A 7th grader on a debate team would have cleaned his clocks. And he did it to himself.

You're an amateur. You cannot judge a presidential election debate by junior high standards.

Anonymous Bob Just September 27, 2016 9:07 AM  

@6 Scivo I think that may be spot on. Ease the less-informed, mis-informed and dis-informed into the issue (as you would like it framed) and then build from there.

The last exchange on Trump's treatment of women reminds me of the Psych question : Is being correct and winning an argument always more important than another person's feelings? I thought Trump would have been a Yes, but at the end, he held back and surprised me (and surprised a lot on the left - which might be why he chose that path).

I hope that sometime Trump uses the line:

Hillary knows a lot of information, but she doesn't know how to use those information to better America, she has bad judgment.

This may stem from the logic she utilized to process that information:

Hillary: We didn't lose a single American in Libya:

ClintonLogic: They aren't lost, their bodies are over there in those caskets.

Or, knowledge is not wisdom.

How would she be able to show that she doesn't have bad judgment or lack wisdom?

Anonymous Kevin September 27, 2016 9:09 AM  

Trump is a very poor debater. Very poor. That was clear in the republican debates. He is good at occasionally getting in really memorable one liners that define the debate. He is very bad at getting distracted because he is incredibly easy to troll in real time. He has a very difficult time "staying on message". If Hillary had mentioned his hands the rest of the debate would have been him talking about that.

Trump does not have some grand master strategy. Hillary does. She has people doing psyche profiles of Trump and her debate is an orchestrated delivery - she has done this sort of thing so many times. That is a strength for Trump - if he can keep from taking everything so personal he can be more natural and his clear concern for Americans instead of globalist BS (which only appeals to college students and super elites) can come through. Its also Trumps biggest weakness. He can often come across as someone who has not really thought about the issues and is winging it. He is usually better at handling hostile media so even on a Trump scale he did bad last night. I don't know which direction the polls will go - VD is right there - these things are extremely hard to know. But when Romney kicked the crap out of Obama it moved the polls, until he went limp in the next two debates. My inclination is the Trump looked bad enough relative to a stable hand that he loses some momentum.

I know everyone hates little Rubio and would never support him, but as an energetic, handsome, fresh face and wonky enough to debate well he would be running away with this thing. Politics is a crazy game.

Anonymous Bob Just September 27, 2016 9:11 AM  

VD,

I enjoyed the Alex Jones live-commentary during the debate, especially when HiLiary was lying or blinking (which was about 3/4 of her time).

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 27, 2016 9:13 AM  

Is this just (Bill) Clinton-style triangulation, though? He already has the votes of the gun people (who can tell themselves he doesn't really mean it). This gives him an in with the gun-grabbers looking for an excuse to vote for him.

I don't think so, because you run the risk of alienating the gun people. It's never a good look when you agree with Hillary Clinton on guns.

Anonymous Tom September 27, 2016 9:16 AM  

I couldn't watch most of the debate because I would have launched into a tirade in front of my children, and instead I just listened as it played in the background of my pacing.

Clinton sounded stilted and forced. She sounded like she was spewing memorized material. Especially on the terror question where the questioner failed to mention the most recent attack by the Turkish immigrant in Washington. They fed her a question with a set list of attacks and she parroted them back in order and then stumbled when trying to remember the name of the attacker for a brief moment. The way she stumbled and recovered, coupled with the way the moderator left off the most recent attack by a Muslim made me sure she was fed this specific question ahead of time and had a memorized answer ready and waiting.

My wife was unaware of these details and just said she sounded like a polished liar.

Trump sounded like Trump. My wife's opinion of him was telling as she hasn't paid much attention to this whole thing and is probably going to write in Ron Paul (which won't hurt Trump any because we live in a red part of a very blue state). She said, "At least with Trump, you know what you're going to get. He is what he is."

Blogger justthinkin September 27, 2016 9:17 AM  

She came off as a career politician. He came off as challenging a career politician. Good enough.

Anonymous Bob Just September 27, 2016 9:18 AM  

@90 Master strategy for the debates or for the country/world?

I think Hillary has both and the latter won't be very good. Just as the master strategy of the first radical (as designated by her mentor Saul Alinsky) has not been good.

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents September 27, 2016 9:21 AM  

The winner of the first debate?

Lester Holt, hands down.

Next time maybe Trump could debate just one other person instead of two?

Anonymous aegis-1080 September 27, 2016 9:21 AM  

@90

Rubio? Really? Come on, people don't "hate" Rubio, Rubio simply proved that he's not tall enough for this ride when Krispy Kremes crushed him, remember?

On the debate, it was fine. Trump held back a little against Hillary, but he was able to parry the shit out of the attacks of that POS moderator "Mr. Trump, why you are so racist?". The main point was to look "Presidential" to get the normies on board and he did that without the usual Cuckservative groveling. I'll call that a win.

Blogger Vi M September 27, 2016 9:22 AM  

While I was watching the debate I was "meh" about Trump's performance, but today as I think about it I realize he accomplished his goals. He was there to appeal to the undecided Dem voters and the disengaged LIVs - people who reflexively vote Dem but don't much like Hillary for whatever reason.
His goal was to appear reasonable, presidential, sympathetic, while not stepping in any feminist or racism landmines - a viable alternative, in other words. He did.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist September 27, 2016 9:24 AM  

They are correct. The shoulder "shimmy"--and the eyes closing-- both go on a bit too long. Her campaign put this in a tweet, but edited the shaking to be much shorter. I really do think she has some type of neurological deficiency.

http://www.breitbart.com/2016-presidential-race/2016/09/26/watch-hillary-clinton-shimmy-presidential-debate/

Anonymous unadorned September 27, 2016 9:26 AM  

Clinton was terrible. That sick smirk on her face spewing personal insults was not a pretty sight.
I'm sure that her fangirls believe she "won" since her behavior is common place among the evil ugly herd who consider lying as much as you can a noble act.

The moderator should rightly be scorned; he was ten times worse than Candy Crowley. When he asked Clinton a question she never answered instead she would start talking about Trump's past. She reiterated most of the slander that we've heard for months from her sidekicks in the MSM. Then the moderator would have Trump rebut what Clinton had brought up about him---bankrupcies, racist landlord, bad mouthing women. So that in effect, Clinton decided what the "issues" were. She was confident because, per Drudge, Holt was the third debater.
She constantly blinked her eyes. When the "debate" was over she walked very, very carefully, and cautiously stepped off the two inch platform like it was a hurdle. She tried hard to present herself as in robust health, however, she came across, to those paying attention, as a feeble old lady who believes that carefully picking your way across a stage without assistance is a sign of vigor.

Also, it's more than likely Hillary was given the gist of what ever questions Holt had prepared.
The same as she was given a special podium so as to look taller. In the split screen she appeared two inches or so shorter than Trump instead of the actual 10-11 inch difference in height.

At the very end when she was talking about Trump 's attitude toward women, Trump said that he could say plenty but would refrain. I saw a flicker of fear in her eyes. Trump later told Hannity that he didn't bring up Bill's women problems out of respect for Chelsea who was front row. I believe Trump's team advised him not to attack Hillary on any personal issues in the hopes that people would view him as presidential. I think he needs a new team.

OpenID paworldandtimes September 27, 2016 9:29 AM  

These debates need to be reframed from 1992 anachronisms about The Economy, which convince nobody. And from the 80s-era hand-wringing about Inner Cities and its bestial African-Americans.

An existential abyss is on everyone's mind.

PA

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist September 27, 2016 9:32 AM  

Scott Adams blog post on last night was just posted. He has been perceptively correct much of the time about this election, so I always find his thoughts interesting.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/151007796236/i-score-the-first-debate

Blogger Cicatrizatic September 27, 2016 9:33 AM  

"I will be very curious how much this debate moves things at all. Romney did very well against Obama in debate #1, clearly winning it, but it didn't help him at all. I don't even think he got a poll bump from it, did he?"

Romney did get a bump from his first debate performance - he almost pulled even in some of the national polls. However, this trend dissipated after about 7-10 days, especially after his poor performances at the second and third debates.

One big picture takeaway here is that - absent one of the candidates having a total meltdown - the first debate doesn't really decide much. There may be a short term trend that shows up in the next few days, but it will dissipate and be replaced by whatever dominates the media cycle next week.

Blogger Desiderius September 27, 2016 9:36 AM  

"I don't think so, because you run the risk of alienating the gun people. It's never a good look when you agree with Hillary Clinton on guns."

He's drawing down some of the political capital he's already built up with them. What are they going to do, stay home? They can't risk Hillary getting in.

Blogger Erynne September 27, 2016 9:40 AM  

Trump was on the defense a lot, despite coming across as more passionate, more confident. I don't know why he dwelt on the stupid insinuations against him, and failed to crush Hillary on her obfuscations. Not impressed, and the #HillarysHealth was disappointing. Maybe she looked a little zombie-ish, but she didn't need to sit, she didn't cough, didn't freeze up at all. Once again, I'm astounded by how defensive Republicans get, Democrats all offense.

Blogger Vi M September 27, 2016 9:41 AM  

It's never a good look when you agree with Hillary Clinton on guns.

Someone reminded me that in the first Hillary vs Barack debate, Barack did a lot of agreeing with Hillary. He basically sold himself as a more likable, more "in" alternative to her & her baggage.

OpenID 3ghostninja September 27, 2016 9:42 AM  

Scott Adams said this the other day on another topic:

"In case you are wondering, this is a known persuasion technique. You agree with someone harder than they agree with themselves, and it forces them to argue against their own point. "

I thought of this notion when I saw that Trump and Hillary appear to agree on guns.

http://blog.dilbert.com/post/150979891156/trumps-african-american-reframing

Blogger Grisle McThornbody September 27, 2016 9:45 AM  

I didn't watch any of it either, but I think Scott Adams nailed the strategy.

Trump's momentum is positive. He doesn't need to push the throttle just yet. That would waste energy now, when it might be needed later.

Blogger Chris Mallory September 27, 2016 9:45 AM  

@99 The shimmy was definitely a WTF moment. My first impression on seeing it live was "Why is she doing a hoochie mama shake?". On watching it this morning, it does look like a neurological tremor, especially with her frozen grin and how she shut her eyes in the middle of it.

Anonymous Tom September 27, 2016 9:49 AM  

@"Trump didn't see opportunities..."

Does anyone who has followed Trump for any amount of time actually think that he didn't see this opportunities?

Missing one or two in the heat of the moment, maybe...

But, he let ALMOST ALL of them go. He was doing it on purpose. He was doing his best not to attack her. Whether it was to look "presidential" or to appear "not scary" or whatever, there is no way that he walked past all those opportunities by ineptitude.

My visceral reaction to the debate was one of frustration and anger at all of the missed rebuttals and counters until I started to think about it. There were too many of them. I decided that either he was storing things up for later debates that were closer to the election or he was trying to not look mean to an old lady. Then I wondered if he wanted to keep things close until right before the election so that Hillary could still imagine that she was going to win and wouldn't pull any truly nasty tricks. Then I came online and found a lot of other valid possible reasons that people were suggesting about why Trump was laying off of Hillary.

Sure, we'd all love to see her get her clock cleaned, but the timing isn't right. If he short circuited her now, the Dems would have time to recover and redirect. If he waits until the third debate to frizzle her wires, they'll be in a much worse situation.

Blogger Nate September 27, 2016 9:50 AM  

" I think he needs a new team."

then you're not paying attention. or... you're not very bright.

You want to see scorched earth.

Scorched earth is a desperation move.

Trump isn't desperate.

Anonymous BGKB September 27, 2016 9:51 AM  

Trump did the former. While Hillary didn't collapse, go on a coughing jag,

shitlib media is pushing TRUMP had the sniffles, but not that hilldog coughed a couple times.

this was Trump looking decidedly unscary, and having achieved this goal, will go into the next debate ready for

TRUMP told reporters immediately after while hilldog was still a stones throw away that he was going to go after her on her attacks on women victimized by Bill but that he couldn't do it with their daughter right in front of him. So he may have been pulling his punches but didn't wait long.

22 leech Trump was often rambling (his answer on nuclear weapons made almost no sense

Nukes > global warming. Clinton giving Iran nukes+ money when sanctions were killing it bad. Our nuke stockpiles neglected. Was that too complicated? I cant use finger paints to explain in this medium.

particular surgeon has as many dead bodies on her resume as she does, maybe you have a better chance with a plumber.

I wish he would have responded to the Russian hacking by saying Julian Assange claimed it was a staffer murdered the week of the DNC who gave the info.

Agreed. I was astonished when I read that he did that. That was a serious unforced error.

notice lame stream fact checkers didn't check how effective stop/frisk was, that hilldog lied about. He should have said "if 70+yo white women were documented as killing more people than 15-20yos he would advocate stop/frisk of Hilldog"

One nice little touch was when he jarringly threw in a big word "braggadocio" to explain why he acts the way he does in public

I don't think I fully understood the 15pt IQ gap until you pointed out people not being able to figure out what that meant by breaking the word down into 2 parts. Are there people that didn't get the bigusdickus joke in Mounty python?

A little wormy looking guy removed papers from her lectern as soon as the debate was over.

TRUMP is right next to her little podium in the picture if he could have picked them up it would have been great, he could have found out if she was given the questions.

I think it's kind of surreal watching my liberal acquaintances act like they give to shits

They have given campaign donations to shit candidates for a long time.

Trump is a very poor debater. Very poor. That was clear in the republican debates.

Clearly he was awful to beat 16 people including the GOPe favorite Jeb of the Bush crime family.

In the split screen she appeared two inches or so shorter than Trump instead of the actual 10-11 inch difference in height.

On CNN split screen she looked bigger than TRUMP, by distance from the top of the screen.

"I don't think so, because you run the risk of alienating the gun people. It's never a good look when you agree with Hillary Clinton on guns

I wish he would have said Obama's FBI investigated the PULSE shooter 3 times, but like when he said he loved free trade then explained free trade to be something that has not existed in the last 50 years, I think his talking about lists, and allowing people to get off of them is a way to get to the normies.

Blogger VD September 27, 2016 9:52 AM  

The shimmy was definitely a WTF moment

I watched it. The shimmy was the result of her being drugged to the gills. She was feeling GOOD at that moment.

Anonymous mature craig September 27, 2016 9:52 AM  

I though it was hillarious how with a straight face he talked how the idea of democrats cheating on elections was outrageous

Blogger GracieLou September 27, 2016 9:54 AM  

If we (alt-right Trumpests) are frustrated it's because we're well informed and we know how far he could have gone but for the low information undecideds he did well. All they've heard previously is what's on the nightly news, political "comedy" and lefty FB posts.

From an article Drudge links, "How Trump Won Over a Bar of Undecideds and Democrats" :
“Trump had the upper hand this evening... By the end of the debate, Clinton never said a thing to persuade me that she had anything to offer me or my family or my commumity... he came out swinging but also talked about specifics on jobs and the economy...Reed said Clinton came across as either smug or as though she was reading her résumé, adding there was nothing on her résumé that touched on his life. “I am a small businessman, a farmer, come from a long line of farmers and coal miners. The policies she talked about tonight ultimately either hurt me or ignore me."

Anonymous mature craig September 27, 2016 9:56 AM  

But it seems the current dnc does not play as dirty as they used to which is a good trend. .Fox News deserves credit for that

Blogger Derrick Bonsell September 27, 2016 9:57 AM  

Hillary did at least the minimum of what she needed to do, and Trump didn't do what he needed to do, which was knock it out of the park. Now if his goal wasn't to win the debate on points but to survive and look Presidential he probably accomplished that. As a Trump fan that isn't what we really want, we want the Trump we saw in the GOP debates and are disappointed when he doesn't deliver that.

I still think a tie in performance is a victory for Hillary but in terms of overall affect on the election I suspect it doesn't move the needle either way.

Also of note is the media isn't adopting Carville's view of the debate, they don't seem to be running with a "Hillary kicked ass, you go girl!" narrative. Also Carville isn't "the Democratic view," he's the view of the Clintonites.

Anonymous Whitey Whiteman III September 27, 2016 10:00 AM  

"Some said it looked like she was reading during her answers, she was. A little wormy looking guy removed papers from her lectern as soon as the debate was over."


I didn't realize they were not allowed to have notes. She was 100%, without a doubt, glancing down at notes while speaking.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 27, 2016 10:02 AM  

Normies care about social respectability and their 401ks. Hillary is that nasty old beast who terrorizes the cubicle drones. Please Don be that alpha who takes charge and puts said old crone and her crone accomplices back in their cubicles.

Anonymous OEMXMBOZTM September 27, 2016 10:02 AM  

This was like an Olympic diving competition. HRC did an almost perfect canon ball - degree of difficulty 1 out of 10. DJT executed a less than perfect double back flip with a twist - degree of difficulty 9 out of 10.

No questions about immigration, pay for play, Clinton foundation, emails (only brought up by DJT), Benghazi, "under fire", etc.

Overall DJT maintained composure under much more difficult circumstances.

HRC was so calm and relaxed as if she knew the answers before the exam was taken which would not surprise me.

Anonymous Andrew E. September 27, 2016 10:07 AM  

I didn't watch the debate myself because I can't stand Hillary for even a few minutes and I know Trump is not a master debater so I'll just get frustrated. But it seems clear Hillary didn't killshot Trump so the game goes on and Trump has all the momentum.

As long as he stays viable I really don't care how well Trump does in these debates. The country is dying, Hillary intends to finish it off and Trump comes out of nowhere from a very successful business career to try and stop it against all odds. We're lucky to have him at all. Carry on Mr. Trump.

Anonymous Helton September 27, 2016 10:07 AM  

A few more thoughts:

The vision thing: make it explicit. He needs to make explicit that Hil’s a globalist, where borders fall away and we are just one of many. Harp on the fact that the US is only ~5% of the world population – do we really want to double the number of people to let a small fraction of “other” in? Get her to say the US is a “proposition nation,” then try to nail her on ‘what’s the proposition, then, and can immigrants simply disregard it? What happens to those that don’t assimilate?” If American is so average, why is it that all the poor are moving here, rather than Americans moving elsewhere?

Expose her thinking with memorable catch-phrases:
“Magic dirt” is a powerful phrase when people understand it. Make clear that people who show up don’t magically start acting like Americans when they step upon our soil, something Dems and globalists imply. We are NOT all interchangeable, or else the nations they are fleeing wouldn’t be like they are. “colonists”: Similarly, differentiating between “good immigrants” and “colonists” (those who come here and do not integrate / assimilate) we put her on the defensive trying to distinguish between them and get HER bogged down in nuance, and leave her supporting the wall so that they can be vetted / sorted.

Make it personal: find the names of a half dozen guys – coal miners, Disney workers replaced by cheaper imports, high-tech workers replaced by H1Bs they replaced, a manufacturer put out of biz by WalMart outsourcing, etc – and talk up how immigration and globalization has destroyed their lives. Find the name of some middle-class white family guy that killed himself rather than go on the dole because his ability to support his family was destroyed they Obama/Clinton policies, and point out the middle aged white guys, the guys that put men on the moon, built the Hoover Dam, and invented the integrated circuit, are the highest suicide rate group (and can’t you just hear the race-baiters saying “yeah, hurry up and die already, cracker!” give them rope to hang themselves with.)

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist September 27, 2016 10:07 AM  

VD: I watched it. The shimmy was the result of her being drugged to the gills. She was feeling GOOD at that moment.

Oh my goodness... you are right!!!! Looking at it again, with the closed eyes and the grin, the woman is high!! LOL!

Best. Election. Ever.

Anonymous mature craig September 27, 2016 10:08 AM  

I saw a bit of it....rough sketch impression. Trump was the agressor but thats the way he is whether he needs to be or not...She blocked his left then she blocked his eight but then he started head butting and then he drew blood bc Trump doesnt give up

Anonymous LabRat September 27, 2016 10:09 AM  

The debate was frustrating, but what I remember from the debate is Hillary's head thrown back in weird laughter or that odd smaile and Trump talking about jobs.

Her opening salvo regarding the money his father loaned him could better be handled by acknowledgement and reframe.

"Yes, my father loaned me money to get started. However, it was the principles that he taught me that made the biggest difference. Hilllary's unsound mind is constantly focused on money and who got what and who got a headstart. She thinks that if you're successful then it's because of what someone gave you. I was raised on the principle that if you work hard, treat people right, you'll be successful and Americans agree with that."

Anonymous Broken Arrow September 27, 2016 10:17 AM  

Focus group reports are coming in and the results are "Neither" or Hillary. Like I said a minor victory for her.

Blogger VFM #7634 September 27, 2016 10:18 AM  

From the New York Post:

http://nypost.com/2016/09/26/the-best-debate-takes-come-from-inside-the-bar/

Reed, 35, is a registered Democrat and small businessman. “By the end of the debate, Clinton never said a thing to persuade me that she had anything to offer me or my family or my community,” he said, sitting at the same bar that has boasted local icons as regulars, such as the late Fred Rogers, and Arnold Palmer, who had his own stash of PM Whiskey hidden behind newer bottles of whiskey for his regular visits.

“Have to say Trump had the edge this evening, he came out swinging but also talked about specifics on jobs and the economy,” Reed said.

Reed said Clinton came across as either smug or as though she was reading her résumé, adding there was nothing on her résumé that touched on his life. “I am a small businessman, a farmer, come from a long line of farmers and coal miners. The policies she talked about tonight ultimately either hurt me or ignore me,” he said.

Anonymous High on Life! September 27, 2016 10:19 AM  

Hillary Shimmy gif lookin' like it's the summer of '68 all over again!

Blogger Nate September 27, 2016 10:20 AM  

"Focus group reports are coming in and the results are "Neither" or Hillary"

Focus groups are entirely manipulated.

Blogger Robert Coble September 27, 2016 10:21 AM  

Strange how different the perceptions can be between visuals and aurals. . .

My wife is out of state, and watched the debate. She thought Trump appeared to be much better than Clinton, and appeared to win on the optics.

I was working and driving, and only heard the debate on radio. At times, I could hear sounds in Trump's microphone that made him sound like Darth Vader. (Could that have been added in for effect?) Clinton's points were what I expected: same old tired scripted talking points from a career politician. What surprised (and disappointed) me was that Trump seemed to respond more to her gotchas rather than counter-punching her weaknesses on related topics. Example: when the topic was the release of Trump's tax returns and (supposedly) Trump "hiding" something, it seemed a perfect opportunity for several possible lines of counter-attack based on Clinton's secretiveness: the Goldman-Sachs transcripts that Hillary demanded remain secret; the recovery of thousands of emails that supposedly only contained yoga, wedding plans and mushy stuff from Slick Willie but turned out to contain classified information; the Benghazi lies about a video, and so forth. I was disappointed that he got bogged down and defensive toward the later half, appearing to ramble at times. I thought he "won" the first part and lost the second part.

Neither my wife nor I are ardent Trump supporters BUT we are dyed-in-the-wool NEVER HILLARY! The "enema" (siic) of my enemy is my friend, so I hope he disembowels her (in a shitty non-literal sort of "flushing out the sludge" way) in the next two debates.

If Dr. Lisa Bardack is responsible for the medicinal doping of Hillary for the debate, then she has to be a genius at calculating just the right dosages to permit her to get through as well as she did without any major obvious medical distress. As an aside, I heard somewhere that some doctors are speculating that Hillary has MYASTHENIA GRAVIS, not Parkinson's, not MS, not seizures.

Blogger Cicatrizatic September 27, 2016 10:23 AM  

Both Gravis and People's Pundit Daily had similar results from their poll: Clinton narrowly wins when respondents are asked "who won the debate", but among undecideds, a few percent say they are more likely to vote Trump now, and none of the undecideds indicate they are more likely to vote Clinton.

OpenID simplytimothy September 27, 2016 10:39 AM  

@106 By tomorrow, no one will remember what either of them said during the debate. But we will remember how they made us feel.


This.

Trump makes me feel like he's a good guy; Hilary makes me feel hatred.


Anonymous Don't Suicide Me September 27, 2016 10:46 AM  

#ShimmyShimmyShake

https://gifsound.com/?gif=i.giphy.com/26hiuaSY0hn5oy3g4.gif&v=3uYhDkSJneM&s=40

Blogger Deplorable Gaiseric September 27, 2016 10:48 AM  

Derrick Bonsell wrote:Hillary did at least the minimum of what she needed to do, and Trump didn't do what he needed to do, which was knock it out of the park. Now if his goal wasn't to win the debate on points but to survive and look Presidential he probably accomplished that. As a Trump fan that isn't what we really want, we want the Trump we saw in the GOP debates and are disappointed when he doesn't deliver that.
Trump was not stellar in the GOP debates. Trump has been triumphing on the issues and his force of personality, not because he's a good debater. He's a mediocre debater even at his best.

Blogger Conan the Cimmerian September 27, 2016 10:49 AM  

I scanned this thread but saw nothing about this:

Did you catch it when Hillary said Trump has said these awful things about women (really about his interactions with Rosie O'Donnell)?

He stated something like, I could say something right now that would be really hurtful/would hurt her family, but I won't.


I believe that was a warning shot (and perhaps emblematic of this debate). He was stating that if you continue down this line of labeling me a misogynist then I will blow you up over Bill the Rapist and you the woman that framed his rapes as whore and sluts.


I think this may be the most important event of the night.

In short, I think this is just as Scott Adams and Vox have stated. Trump to look like a true candidate. As the next debates happen I expect him to ratchet it up depending on how she behaves.

Do not blow all you ammo in the first salvo.

Anonymous Bob Just September 27, 2016 10:51 AM  

It looked like they did use forced perspective (especially at the end) or they had a ramp under the carpet on her side.

Anonymous Steve September 27, 2016 10:52 AM  

I can't help but feel this was at least a small victory for Hillary. All the talk going into the debate was whether she would even be able to make it through without a coughing fit or having to stop. She made it through just fine and held her own. Yes, we all know she is full of it, and all of her responses were scripted (did she have the questions before hand?) but if this just changes the narrative from her health to 'fact checking' both sides on issues then I would say it is a win for her.

Assange, if you have any more of those emails Thursday would be a good day to drop them.

Anonymous Bob Just September 27, 2016 10:54 AM  

@131 I mentioned it (in a roundabout way).

He disproved their temperament argument- Big League.

Blogger Vi M September 27, 2016 10:54 AM  

Don Surber also thinks Trump won

http://donsurber.blogspot.com/2016/09/trump-won-bigly.html

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist September 27, 2016 10:58 AM  

Having just watched several more clips of Hillary from last night, Vox is right. She is high! They drugged her up. LOL.

Blogger Student in Blue September 27, 2016 11:04 AM  

@Vi M

I almost forgot about the people who were so sure that Trump was in the race to just throw it to Hillary, until Don Surber mentioned it again in that article.

Anonymous Bellator Mortalis September 27, 2016 11:05 AM  

Unlike most people on this blog, the majority of American voters are pretty apolitical. Very many people who watched the debate, only watched the first half hour, and then they switched to a football game (Falcons vs Saints). All Trump had to do was look calm and presidential during that half hour. He did.

Anonymous The Right Villainous John Hall September 27, 2016 11:07 AM  

She definitely sounded scripted, but it's not like the questions were unpredictable. The wording and timing of them was loaded in her favor, but they weren't unexpected. The good side of that is that they covered essentially all of his weaknesses, which will make them old news in the later debates. "That's old news; I've addressed that already" worked for Bill Clinton for many years. The media types fall for it at a very instinctual level, because they fear being seen as of of touch with the newest issues. If Trump uses that to parry future repetitions of those points, he's free to go on the attack on favorable ground.

Blogger flyingtiger September 27, 2016 11:10 AM  

I thought Hillary's body double did well in the debate.

Blogger VFM #7634 September 27, 2016 11:12 AM  

Both Gravis and People's Pundit Daily had similar results from their poll: Clinton narrowly wins when respondents are asked "who won the debate", but among undecideds, a few percent say they are more likely to vote Trump now, and none of the undecideds indicate they are more likely to vote Clinton.

That would mean a Clinton tactical victory and a Trump strategic victory.

Blogger Groot September 27, 2016 11:12 AM  

I know he was being intentionally respectful ("Secretary Clinton"), but I think he could have won the night by dropping that for one minute. When Lester Holt called him racist about the birtherism, he just asks: "So, when Racist Hillary's Racist henchman Sidney Blumenthal promotes his racist rumors, I guess I shouldn't listened to his or Racist Hillary's Racist rumors. Bad on me and bad on Racist Hillary and her Racist henchman."

Blogger Conan the Cimmerian September 27, 2016 11:16 AM  

@134
He disproved their temperament argument- Big League.


I agree.

Blogger Frank Brady September 27, 2016 11:17 AM  

No one thought #Realdonaldtrump won the debate--except for the people. See http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3809204/Most-snap-polls-Trump-winning-debate-landslide.html.

Fjb

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 27, 2016 11:19 AM  

Trump is a remarkably good public speaker, especially when he goes ex tempore, he has something of the raw charismatic quality of Chuck D or Dee Dee Ramone. Which is great, the public wants that. But he was standing next to a former Secretary of State. Despite her epic failure as Secretary of State, she has an enormous advantage in that capacity. She's an idiot, a massive crook, and a psycho ideologue... nonetheless.... former Senator and Secretary of State. She knows horrible things which Trump cannot possibly know; she knows how USG actually works, and Trump, despite his massive experience in business, does not, and this gives her a HUGE advantage.

How can Trump overcome this? There's probably a way, but if he is really a master of the Art of the Deal, as he claims to be, he better show his cards, and they better be good ones.

Blogger l' Américain September 27, 2016 11:20 AM  

I think it is going to become more and more apparent that Trump won that debate.

He was angry. Any Americans are angry about what is happening to the country. That was the impression I got.

I said to myself 'finally, someone who is not going to bullshit.' What did Clinton do? Bullshit.

Just let last night sit with everyone for a little while and you will see a big shift to Trump. Apparently, he got a big portion o the undecideds.

Blogger horsewithnonick September 27, 2016 11:20 AM  

I got that impression as well, and found it...profoundly unsettling.

Anonymous Paul September 27, 2016 11:22 AM  

Like Vox, I did not watch the debate. However, all this morning I have been reading commentary concerning it. The most interesting thing I notice is that the conversation remains mostly about Trump. It's all "well Hillary won, but now let's spend the remainder of the article discussing Trump." Frankly, he's setting the narrative and seems to be running the show already. It's his to lose at this point.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 27, 2016 11:23 AM  

@16 John
I was accused of being a shill by your fanatic commenters because I expressed disappointment in Trump's performance.
---

If you don't get jumped on by a mob around here once in a while, something is wrong.

Blogger Student in Blue September 27, 2016 11:25 AM  

@VFM #7634
That would mean a Clinton tactical victory and a Trump strategic victory.

That prognosis I would definitely agree with.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 27, 2016 11:26 AM  

@18 Roman Lance

I saw the debate, live stream, and was in stitches every time Trump took a sip of water. I'm surprised nobody is talking about that. It was golden.
---

Thought I was overthinking that part. It seemed funny because I kept expecting to see some green demon babies show up in the water, but it never happened.

Then again, people just do things, it doesn't all have to have some hidden tactical value.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 27, 2016 11:27 AM  

@18 Roman Lance

He gave the Alt-right meme makers lots of opportunity to create mocking videos.
---

OH forgot to mention, I did see a meme on Twitter that had Trump drinking from a mug that said "CNN Tears"

Anonymous Broken Arrow September 27, 2016 11:27 AM  

VFM #7634 wrote:Both Gravis and People's Pundit Daily had similar results from their poll: Clinton narrowly wins when respondents are asked "who won the debate", but among undecideds, a few percent say they are more likely to vote Trump now, and none of the undecideds indicate they are more likely to vote Clinton.

That would mean a Clinton tactical victory and a Trump strategic victory.


Exactly. He intentionally lost this battle to try to win the war. He held back on purpose as winning this debate on points but looking like a crazy guy means he loses the election.

I was frustrated too as I wanted him to get out the knives and go to work, but he's playing for the total win. There's no doubt she won in a "college debate team" sort of way, but that's not what wins the election.

Blogger praetorian September 27, 2016 11:29 AM  

These debates need to be reframed from 1992 anachronisms about The Economy, which convince nobody.

Tell that to Ohio, Michigan and West PA, fam.

Consider the following: maybe Trump wasn't talking to us. Maybe he was trying to get the wives of the men already voting for him in those areas to say "You know, he wasn't mean at all, even though she and that negro were both very rude to him. Maybe I will vote for him. Yes. Maybe I will. He is very handsome..."

I'm just an autistic computer programmer. Persuasion frightens and confuses me.

But I'm pretty sure the train is fine.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 27, 2016 11:31 AM  

@24 Difster

I'm surprised more people aren't talking about how much Hillary was blinking. Watch Hillary, especially as Trump was speaking; she's like a prisoner in a Vietnamese prison camp trying to signal us in Morse Code.
---

There were people talking about it last night, that was another funny thing. She really looked like she was going to fall asleep multiple times. Kudos on the morse code comment. I sent out a tweet similar last night - that she was signalling her Lizard masters in the hollow moon control center in morse code

Anonymous VFM #6306 September 27, 2016 11:31 AM  

No. Trump doesn't need to flip the racist card. He knows it has lost its punch. Race realism has gone viral in this country and Trump knows it. Calling Hillary racist would only send votes her way. Biggest "racist" is going to win in a landslide.

Anonymous Jill September 27, 2016 11:35 AM  

On the visuals alone, Hillary looked much better...her hair, make-up, red suit, and lighting were all perfect. She looked well-rested and in control. Probably had some pharmaceutical help there.

Trump, visible the entire time on the split screen, looked faded, tired, and gritty. His much less make-up and his dark suit made him look darker and duller than Hillary, and he has toned down the orange hair. He was sniffling a bit at the beginning; maybe fighting off a cold. Hillary and the moderator kept steering him into his own issues, and while he talked, she kept giving a "There you go again, lying," condescending grin. The moderator even called him a liar.

The net effect, though, was that Hillary looked like a veteran Washington insider, and Trump looked like The Underdog Taking on the System and Speaking Truth to Power. I haven't seen the Hunger Games movies, only read the books, but Hillary was so polished that she looked like one of the Capitol elite, something I think a lot of younger voters will also see and be turned off by. Her condescension toward Trump was no doubt entertaining for her supporters, but there are a lot of Americans who are thoroughly tired of condescended to by their leaders, while the country's problems pile up and up and up. Her only answer for how to create jobs was to make college free. Trump kept talking about states that had lost their manufacturing base, by name, and about the people there he had talked to. He showed anger at how the country is falling apart, and repeatedly connected Hillary to the political class that failed to care for the people.

I would say that Hillary won the debate, with help from the moderator, but that Trump was the one who actually connected with the voters.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 27, 2016 11:35 AM  

@32 Josh (the gayest thing here)
Also, it was unbelievably stupid for Trump to double down on using stop and frisk and the no fly list to confiscate guns.
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That had to be his worst moment of the whole thing. Other than the rambling which went on later.

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 27, 2016 11:35 AM  

Sarah Palin made this mistake. She could have actually been President -- I'm not kidding -- if she had said No to a sinking ship like McCain, waited another term, served a second term as Governor to establish her street cred, built up her steam during her second term (she had charisma to burn, it just wasn't managed properly, but those glasses were stylistic GENIUS), improved her vocabulary, studied foreign policy seriously, and built up a good team of advisors. She would have been unstoppable. But she needed Henry Higgins. Instead she blew it, which showed poor judgment. What a lost opportunity.

Trump... does he have the wisdom to avoid these mistakes? He crushed idiots like Jeb and Cruz and Rubio. That was easy, because they were all squishes and retards. Can he crush the freakin' Terminator? Does he have the nous?

Blogger Were-Puppy September 27, 2016 11:37 AM  

@35 Nate
i tweeted last night... "What happened was the only thing no one predicted would happen: Nothing."
---

Scott Adams tweeted something similar. It came out as a wash.

Did you see any of those Luntz tweets about how Undecideds got a yuuuge boner over Trumps comments even compared to Trump supporters?

Blogger wreckage September 27, 2016 11:40 AM  

No, Hillary's establishment credentials are a severe hindrance to her. Everyone, everywhere, is sick to death of the career politician who knows everything and can't be persuaded, dissuaded, or negotiated with. In light of which, I am not surprised that Hillary's smile, dismiss, laugh routine went down like a lead balloon.

Anonymous Jack Amok September 27, 2016 11:40 AM  

...among undecideds...

That's the thing I keep wondering about. How many of those will actually watch a debate, and if they do, do we really know what they're looking for? I understand Trump supporters. I understand Hillary supporters. I can only really guess at what undecideds are thinking.

But if someone doesn't know who they're voting for at this point, are they really interested enough to even watch a debate?

Blogger Were-Puppy September 27, 2016 11:43 AM  

@40 GAHCindy

Oh, and trump was appalling on civil liberties. If Hillary wasn't a million times worse and a terrifying person altogether, he'd have lost me on stop and frisk and the no fly list stuff.
---

The whole stop and frisk thing seemed like two New Yorkers arguing about something local.

Blogger Teri September 27, 2016 11:45 AM  

Hillary's schedule (I guess it takes a village to campaign):
https://hillaryspeeches.com/scheduled-events/

Trump's schedule:
https://www.donaldjtrump.com/schedule

I think folks will still be thinking about her lack of stamina, if she tries to hide out too much.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 27, 2016 11:50 AM  

@55 Curlytop

The slurring got a bit worse when mentioning her father controlling something(?).
---

https://i.imgflip.com/1bbnpd.jpg

Blogger Jimmy The Freak September 27, 2016 11:52 AM  

The Right Villainous John Hall wrote:... "That's old news; I've addressed that already" worked for Bill Clinton for many years. The media types fall for it at a very instinctual level, because they fear being seen as of of touch with the newest issues. If Trump uses that to parry future repetitions of those points, he's free to go on the attack on favorable ground.

Unfortunately this only works when it is a topic the media doesn't really want to discuss. That doesn't work for Republican candidates.

Anonymous dagwood September 27, 2016 11:55 AM  

"The whole stop and frisk thing seemed like two New Yorkers arguing about something local."

I agree. Regardless of the legal issues, Stop-and-frisk is incredibly effective in NYC (even more effective is busting turnstile-jumpers on the subway, you wouldn't believe it), but it probably doesn't play in Peoria. You have to know just how horribly bad NYC was in 1989 to understand stop-and-frisk as a policy. There should be a giant solid-golden statue of William Bratton, larger than Lady Liberty. Most of the country doesn't understand what happened. Maybe Chicago does right now, but I think they're still so blue-pilled that it doesn't make a difference.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 27, 2016 11:57 AM  

@68 NorthernSon
Semi-OT, but what was with the "will you accept a loss in November" question? It was my first time watching a presidential debate, but I don't think this is a standard topic. Are they setting up a soundbite for their narrative if they decide to steal the election?
---

They want to know if they can buy him off with a beach house like Bernie.

-or- They have been seeing all the talk about Hillary = Civil War 2 and are attempting to make Trump a scapegoat of it if that happens?

Anonymous Realist September 27, 2016 12:00 PM  

Did anyone get the suspicion that she had seen the questions in advance? Her answers seemed like she had memorized them ahead of time. On the few occasions in which she had to ad lib she didn't respond in the same manner. It wouldn't beneath the Democrats and the media to cheat.

Anonymous dagwood September 27, 2016 12:01 PM  

Hillary does equal Civil War 2. I wonder how many voters actually realize this.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 27, 2016 12:04 PM  

@79 dienw
The goddamned bitch had help throughout and was fed the answers as well as had the questions long before the debate. She didn't use the ear buds but used augmented contact lenses.
---

That one didn't even cross my mind. We know for a fact that wikileaks exposed collusion with the DNC and media. I was thinking maybe the questions were given to Lester from the DNC, which is why they seemed like boring DNC talking points.

If she had to be read the answers to the typical DNC talking points, then she is worse off than I thought.

Anonymous #8601 September 27, 2016 12:05 PM  

I'm glad Secretary Clinton did alright last night, thus lulling her supporters and the pundits into a false sense of security.

It will make the Trumpslide on Nov 8 all the more sweet.

Anonymous Jack Amok September 27, 2016 12:07 PM  

And then of course there's the question: what matters more for election results, the debate, or the Turkish Hispanic Mall Shooter having a tumblr page talking about Allah with a picture of the ISIS leader and a quote "My main dude, Abu bakr al big daddy. #al qaeda"?



Blogger Were-Puppy September 27, 2016 12:08 PM  

@85 Avalanche

There was a perfect killshot, and we're all wondering about the Foundation and the sleazy crap the Clintons engage in... and he left it lying there in the stage lights, like a stinking carcass in the sun! And we -- and our enemies - are kinda pointing at it and going: "Didn't he see that? Can't he smell it? Why didn't he point at it?"
---

Bannon is in the Trump campaign, so this must have been intentional on Trumps part. BB was the biggest driver of the Clinton Cash movie that brought all this into the light recently.

Anonymous Broken Arrow September 27, 2016 12:09 PM  

Realist wrote:Did anyone get the suspicion that she had seen the questions in advance? Her answers seemed like she had memorized them ahead of time. On the few occasions in which she had to ad lib she didn't respond in the same manner. It wouldn't beneath the Democrats and the media to cheat.

She was just exceptionally well prepared. It's her greatest strength in a debate.

Anonymous User September 27, 2016 12:11 PM  

We need to get guns out if the hands of bad people!

Stop and frisk is bad!

I wonder how many people make the connection that illegal guns are what are being frisked for.

Anonymous #8601 September 27, 2016 12:12 PM  

@175 It definitely crossed my mind that Hillary had received the questions in advance. Her answers were so rehearsed.

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 27, 2016 12:13 PM  

"I'm glad Secretary Clinton did alright last night, thus lulling her supporters and the pundits into a false sense of security"

My strategy, which wins a great deal of the time: pressure the center, secure the king side, then march viciously up the queen side with relentless force, hook over to the king side (he's castled but it makes no difference), shah maat.

Anonymous A Most Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents September 27, 2016 12:17 PM  

dagwood
Stop-and-frisk is incredibly effective in NYC (even more effective is busting turnstile-jumpers on the subway, you wouldn't believe it), but it probably doesn't play in Peoria

No, it doesn't play in Peoria. Here's why.

How would stop-and-take-my-wallet play in Manhattan? Not good, eh? It's called "robbery". Letting cops rob people is not good for business. It creates friction between the cops and everyone else.

"Stop-and-steal-my-wallet" aka "robbery" is what stop-and-frisk looks like to us in free states. Want to play that in New York? Ok. I don't go there much, when I do I play by NY rules.

Want to make a national police force that does stop-and-disarm on the streets of Denver or Phoenix or Portland or Dallas?

μολὼν λαβέ

Blogger Nate September 27, 2016 12:20 PM  

"The whole stop and frisk thing seemed like two New Yorkers arguing about something local. "

and it was probably the moment when 99% of the people watching.. all on sides of the election... wanted the whole auditorium to burst into flames.

Blogger Gapeseed September 27, 2016 12:21 PM  

@168 - Were-Puppy: That's exactly what I thought too. Trump should have said something along the lines of "Assuming no evidence of cheating, I will support Hillary." That would have given him a reasonable out.

Anonymous History speaking September 27, 2016 12:22 PM  

@176

I wonder how many people make the connection that illegal guns are what are being frisked for.


I wonder how many people realize who Tim Sullivan was, and why he wanted to disarm citizens of NYC?

The liberal complaint is that stop-and-disarm in NYC affects black men disproportionately.

That complaint ignores the fact that black men commit murder disproportionately. Very, very disproportionately.

Blogger Lovekraft September 27, 2016 12:26 PM  

Carville is the epitome of the slick, devious snake-oil salesman. Not worth a moment of our attention until he describes, in a humble manner, how he is seeking forgiveness for his ideology and its destructive policies.

Let him visit the mother of a child killed by an illegal first.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) September 27, 2016 12:38 PM  

and it was probably the moment when 99% of the people watching.. all on sides of the election... wanted the whole auditorium to burst into flames.

Yup

Blogger Azul Tigre September 27, 2016 12:45 PM  

While I agree both of those policies are terrible and a complete overreach of government, I'm not so sure that was a terrible strategic blunder. As Scott Adams notes, the goal is to appear less scary, and to undecided low information voters "taking the guns away from the bad people" sounds reasonable. I doubt he is going to lose voters who are worried about having their guns taken away to Shillary from those comments with the Supreme Court being up for grabs

Anonymous Instasetting September 27, 2016 12:46 PM  

I've seen part of it so far.

Most important thing was that Trump kept hitting body blows to Clinton. Punches that take the vim out of the target, that overall weaken the target.

Its the sorta thing where later in the next weeks Clinton starts to lose from efforts that should have been a success.

He kept on painting her and Washington as incompetent. It was a running theme.

Anonymous mature craig September 27, 2016 12:57 PM  

Actually this election shows the beauty of the pres vice pres combo...bc anything that Trump is missing Mike Pence is overloaded with. And anything Mike Pence is missing Teump is overloaded with.. Its a good combo

Blogger LonestarWhacko September 27, 2016 12:59 PM  

Judgybitch has it right, I think. Trump was being careful. You see, he couldn't stomp on HRC. Spanking was called for.

As I watched, I was glad Trump mixed it up. Like others have pointed out, it's best to hold back the real hard stuff until later, when she really doesn't have time to spin it.

It was Trump by a hair, and that's just fine. Two against one is about right. I personally believe Trump has a copy of all those 30,000 emails. Quid por quo.

The Obama connection to this email treason hasn't be really explored yet, so that's surely coming. Wikileaks, anyone?

Blogger ace September 27, 2016 1:00 PM  

Were-Puppy wrote:@68 NorthernSon

Semi-OT, but what was with the "will you accept a loss in November" question? It was my first time watching a presidential debate, but I don't think this is a standard topic. Are they setting up a soundbite for their narrative if they decide to steal the election?


That confused me too. What an odd question to ask. Like 'will you accept the results of this coin toss?'

Anonymous dagwood September 27, 2016 1:10 PM  

"The liberal complaint is that stop-and-disarm in NYC affects black men disproportionately."

The thing you have to understand about NYC, is the unfortunate, difficult-to-say-but-nevertheless-true thing is, that black men are an unbelievable nuisance, as average things go. It's an inescapable fact. Everyone knows it, but it's impossible to admit it publicly.

Anonymous mature craig September 27, 2016 1:15 PM  

Also on the Drudgereport Poll Trump won the debate by a HUGE margin 82% to 18% which shows me that informed Americans prefer Trump by a wide margin

Anonymous BGKB September 27, 2016 1:29 PM  

As an aside, I heard somewhere that some doctors are speculating that Hillary has MYASTHENIA GRAVIS, not Parkinson's, not MS, not seizures

Its pointless to argue about diseases that are basically not just in the same ball park but the same section of seats unless someone leaks info. Look at the video of her getting in a van before the debate she looks haggard coming down steps and is surprised by a reporter, look at her hand shaking right before she gets into the van. https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/09/25/hillarys-instantaneous-health-morph-unanticipated-pool-reporter-surprises-secretary-clinton/

differentiating between “good immigrants” and “colonists” (those who come here and do not integrate / assimilate)

TRUMP should point out Dinesh D’Souza is darker than Obama but was a great asset to the Regan white house, while the Mexican who criticized him for saying about Mexican rapists was arrested for raping illegals. http://twitchy.com/dougp-3137/2016/09/17/seriously-what-this-hispanic-activist-and-trump-critic-has-been-charged-with-sets-off-irony-alarms/

"Focus group reports are coming in and the results are "Neither" or Hillary"

Do you remember what I said before about at every gay pride there are people handing out phone numbers for jobs to anyone who walks by?

Semi-OT, but what was with the "will you accept a loss in November" question?

"If you are a clear winner like Bernie will you fight it?"

Anonymous Migrant from AmRen September 27, 2016 1:30 PM  

What I am hearing:

Trump did poorly because he didn't point out all 1001+ of Clinton's scandals and misdeeds.

Hillary did well because she didn't start inexplicably bark like a dog (or whatever)

Anonymous mature craig September 27, 2016 1:31 PM  

Ive never had a problem with a black man in 40 years...even when i used to talk trashy on the internet for a few years like a cowardly little bitch they forgave me

Blogger Conan the Cimmerian September 27, 2016 1:34 PM  

@185

I think your comment is correct.

Blogger Conan the Cimmerian September 27, 2016 1:36 PM  

@191 Trump did poorly because he didn't point out all 1001+ of Clinton's scandals and misdeeds.

Could be wrong, but I think this is his strategy. Sand bag (or rope a dope) at the beginning and then ramp up to full by the third debate.

She did "good" and "won the debate" but it did nothing if the flash polls are evidence.

Blogger Arthur Isaac September 27, 2016 1:47 PM  

Romney curb stomped the Google in their first debate. I'd rather see Trump put it together at the end after protecting the plate at the start. Last night was 2 balls and a strike.

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