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Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Trumpslide: 292 and counting

The Trumpslide cometh:
UPI/CVoter state polls: Donald Trump ahead of Hillary Clinton in Electoral College

Donald Trump would earn enough votes to win the presidency in the Electoral College based on UPI/CVoter’s state tracking poll released Monday.

Trump would amass 292 votes and Clinton would get 246 with 270 needed to secure the oval office.

But the candidates’ leads are narrow enough — 5 percent or less — in 12 states to classify them as swing states, meaning 156 electoral votes could be up for grabs.
So do the TRUMPSL!DE t-shirts from Dark Lord Designs, by the way. Among others. Meanwhile, Politico reports that the Clinton campaign is in disarray over Florida:

Clinton campaign in ‘panic mode’ over Florida black voters

Labels:

123 Comments:

Blogger Ron Winkleheimer September 28, 2016 9:32 AM  

Democrats are beginning to worry that too many African-American voters are uninspired by Clinton’s candidacy

Uninspired, they keep using that word, but I don't think they know what it means.

Hillary reminds most blacks of why they hate white people.

Anonymous mature craig September 28, 2016 9:45 AM  

In my view Donald Trump is more effectively articulating the republican message than past republican candidates have...there might be a mega shift in how things go in this country. Interesting time to be alive

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother September 28, 2016 9:46 AM  

Uh oh demon spawn.

Blogger #7139 September 28, 2016 9:49 AM  

Clinton campaign in ‘panic mode’ over Florida black voters

Clinton is losing the black vote in Florida? That wasn't supposed to happen.

Anonymous Terrahawk September 28, 2016 9:51 AM  

Without a black candidate, blacks were never going to be a motivated as they were for Obama. Plus, Trump fits black style in a lot of ways. And his "What have you go to lose?" play is actually pretty smart.

Blogger Bard September 28, 2016 9:52 AM  

Dark Lord Designs. That is a catchy marketing name brand. It could be it's own shirt.

Blogger Teri September 28, 2016 9:53 AM  

Here's the funny quote from the article:

There’s this presumption that we’re all under-educated and uneducated and living with all of this crime — it’s insulting,


This is supposed to be Trump's view of black communities. It's actually Hillary's view of Trump supporters.

Anonymous Broken Arrow September 28, 2016 9:57 AM  

Clinton turned back the clock on the Democrat party to pre-Obama. Look at who she has surrounded herself with and the feel of the party now. The amazing thing is that there's no post-Obama candidate, the party had to go backwards. She's offering nothing new.

Anonymous Dave September 28, 2016 9:59 AM  

Clinton campaign in ‘panic mode’ over Florida black voters

Those Florida black voters didn't watch the debate then, otherwise they would know she is the superior debater. After all, isn't that the most important trait in a presidential candidate?

It would be interesting to find a ethnic breakdown of the debate ratings. I'm guessing it's out there, just not available to the public. Two old white people on TV droning on and on about boring political stuff; homeys just can't get enough of that.

Blogger Revelation Means Hope September 28, 2016 10:07 AM  

Poll taken BEFORE the debate, so it will be interesting how Trump's strategy at the debates influences the polls over the next few days.

I can't tell if Clinton made me want to reach through the radio and shove a strobe light in her face because I already hate her, or if it was just her voice that did it.

We've had 16 years of relentless propaganda from the MSM that Bill Clinton's presidency was a financial highlight in US history, and she STILL can't get a majority.

Anonymous Greg Jenkins September 28, 2016 10:13 AM  

This is a good, if a little breathless, write-up on how Clinton used things like preparation and actual Opposition Research to shiv Trump in the gibblies last night and then follow up the next day with a big media blitz on the whole Miss Universe thing:

http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/9/27/13079878/alicia-machado-trap

I would bet she's got a stack of these waiting. Trump is a moron and will keep falling for it and he's got a catacomb's worth of skeletons in his closet.



The gist of it is she found a good story of how he's a vile misogynist, set up a few follow-up stories to hit the next day in places like Cosmo and then smacked him with it during the debate when he doesn't expect it and isn't prepared for it. This causes him to fall back on his usual "say whatever comes into my head" shtick, which usually results in him saying what he thinks and what he thinks is always awful.

OpenID malcolmthecynic September 28, 2016 10:13 AM  

This is off topic, but how IS "Jerusalem" anyway. I was thinking of picking it up but after "Watchmen" I'm suspicious of anything Moore-ish.

Anonymous Tiny Duck September 28, 2016 10:15 AM  

Trump is inspiring the Black voter to come out and vote against him!

http://verysmartbrothas.com/cancel-the-debates-the-choice-is-clear-clinton-vs-trump-is-a-bucket-of-prune-juice-vs-a-bucket-of-shit/

Anonymous TLM September 28, 2016 10:17 AM  

@10

You mean the now fat ex-porn actress with the anchor baby from some Mexican drug lord. Yeah, that dog will hunt.

Anonymous VFM#6306 September 28, 2016 10:18 AM  

What? Sista Souljah doesn't want to vote for Hillary? How odd.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 28, 2016 10:19 AM  

One thing about the Trump campaign he has the left in a downward spiral of the "Daily Outrage" as witnessed by above comment. "True believers everywhere unite to smite the outragers of all that is decent, blah, blah, blah." As a former conservative been there done that and have bought all the fucking books I care to about the Daily Outrage.

So white hispanic bimbo and her weight concerns affects how many blacks in Florida?

Double down boy

Anonymous mature craig September 28, 2016 10:20 AM  

My often wrong way of thinking is he should apologize for those comments just like Hillary apologized for deleting 33,000 emails

Blogger dh September 28, 2016 10:27 AM  

Clinton is losing the black vote in Florida? That wasn't supposed to happen.

No, it's a question of turnout. She's going to pull a big percentage of black votes - 80%, 85%, etc. But the question is how big a pie is it.

The "problem" with Florida is that no one knows who are going to turnout to vote. In the Central-Florida corridor, from Tampa-Orlando-Lakeland-Daytona, there have been at least 500k Puerto Ricans who have relocated from the island since the last election. But getting them to vote in anything larger than single digits numbers has turned out to be pretty impossible. And then, they split 65/35 for the Democratic candidates, it's just not reliable.

The black vote in Florida for Pres. Obama was very strong, percentage and absolute numbers wise.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist September 28, 2016 10:27 AM  

The "shocking" things Trump has said doesn't work in this election. Everyone knows he can be insulting. When terrorists are slashing people in malls and planting bombs in NY, and companies are going overseas, the fact Trump said someone was fat or stupid or lazy. etc? (Yawn).

This demonstrates the desperation of Hillary's campaign quite a lot. Who is going to care about this other than some other fat women and some feminists who were already going to vote for her anyway? You think men of any race--a demographic she lags way behind Trump on--are going to going to care that he called a woman fat AFTER SHE GAINED 60 LBS.--in violation of her contract, I might add?

I am seriously asking how this helps Hillary at all?

Blogger ThirdMonkey September 28, 2016 10:29 AM  

She carries hot sauce in her purse.

However, brothas dig on a guy who will call out a hoe for getting fat.

Blogger Ransom Smith September 28, 2016 10:31 AM  

She made the mistake eight years ago of dogging Obama very hard. It was ill advised, as the black community didn't forget.

Anonymous mature craig September 28, 2016 10:32 AM  

I like it when its alt-right and not alt-passive-agressive-internet-bravado.

Blogger VFM #7191 September 28, 2016 10:33 AM  

@10

You talking about the same Alicia Machado that admitted to being an accessory to murder and threatening a judge on Anderson Cooper the other night?

Blogger praetorian September 28, 2016 10:35 AM  

> The black vote in Florida for Pres. Obama was very strong, percentage and absolute numbers wise.

Hi, dh. How's it going?

Blogger James Dixon September 28, 2016 10:40 AM  

> No, it's a question of turnout. She's going to pull a big percentage of black votes - 80%, 85%, etc.

If she can only pull 85% she's probably in deep trouble.

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 28, 2016 10:41 AM  

Hillary is the most ridiculous, disgusting, absurd, flat-out enemy candidate one could possibly imagine. Trump is absurd, too, but not in the depths that Hillary is, and plus it would be totally hilarious if a total f!ck-you type like Trump won. Me, I'm personally a Putin fan -- can he be elected through some mad chicanery? -- and I think Viktor Orban is currently the most important person on Earth, except for whoever runs Jobbik.

I haven't seen a Dem candidate this ridiculous since, oh, John Kerry and Michael Dukakis. I hated Obama, but I have to admit he had charisma and charm, unlike Kerry and the absurd Bob Dole. WHAT WERE THEY THINKING WITH DOLE? A third grader would do a better job of running the RNC.

I'm so mad that Sarah Palin blew her chance.

Anonymous Northern Observer September 28, 2016 10:43 AM  

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/

Nate Silver has a pretty good track record and he's calling for Clinton to retake a strong lead.

Trump is going to have to step up his game. Hopefully he'll crush it for the next debate.

Blogger Johnny September 28, 2016 10:45 AM  

Trump is The Empire Strikes Back, and the empire is the PC stuff they have been burdening us with. It has finally developed to the point where the conservatives minions (not the leadership) has started to notice. That is why doubling down on the PC garbage doesn't work. His offensive behavior by PC standards is part of his draw.

Anonymous Don't Suicide Me September 28, 2016 10:45 AM  

Hillary: Trump is mean to women.
Trump: I don't support or take support from those who cut off female genitals.

Hillary: Trump doesn't pay a lot of taxes
Trump: Neither do you Hillary, except my foundation didn't facilitate the transfer of our Uranium.

Hillary: I have experience
Trump: Yes you do. But you have bad judgment, you don't learn from your experiences.

Hillary: Our foundation was like Robin Hood.
Trump: Yes, by ClintonLogic you took from your billionaire friends and oppressors of women and gays to give to the poor (those making 1% of your billionaire globalist buddies).

Hillary: We didn't lose anybody in Libya.
Trump: Yes, using ClintonLogic. Since the bodies are over there in the caskets, you can say you didn't lose anybody.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 28, 2016 10:45 AM  

Trump could be in a sex video hitting it doggy style with this bimbo, no thank you kiss and his polls would increase

Don't Hillary and her gamma fags understand pop culture?

Anonymous Don't Suicide Me September 28, 2016 10:52 AM  

@26 Don't help her!

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 28, 2016 10:52 AM  

"Hillary: I have experience
Trump: Yes you do. But you have bad judgment, you don't learn from your experiences."

+1.

"Hillary: We didn't lose anybody in Libya."

It's bad that people died, but that isn't the point. Hillary LOST LIBYA, a key geographic potential ally. Does anybody in USG play chess or poker?! I don't expect them to play Go (though I wish they did), but poker and chess seem basic qualifications.

Does anybody at all in USG play chess or poker?

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist September 28, 2016 10:52 AM  

Silver's track record in the 2016 primaries was abysmal. Remember his repeated assurances that Trump would never, ever get the GOP nomination based on his polling? And that Clinton was assured a win in Michigan, and then she lost by something like 20 points?

This isn't a normal or typical election. 2012 isn't predictive for this one. White turnout will be higher. That will help Trump. Watch Wisconsin and PA closely over the next week...

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents September 28, 2016 10:53 AM  

Watch the video of Trump at that large church in Detroit. He talks to black people like people. He doesn't talk down to them like Hillary Rodan talking to "the little people".

Without the tribal influence of Obama on the ticket, the emotion is just not there, so when Trump makes an effort to connect with black Americans as "Americans" it does work.

A D national candidate has to get 90+% of the black vote to win certain states. All Trump has to do is get the 15% to nullify that.

Blogger U PC BRO? September 28, 2016 10:56 AM  

Trump must have poll watchers in place in force at heavily minority precincts. Otherwise a 40% turnout will become a 90% turnout, and guess who they all voted for?

Blogger Johnny September 28, 2016 10:59 AM  

@30 Combine what Trump gets with an equal number of stay at homes and 15% of the black votes, if he gets it, would be a blow out win. Considering how much they are hammering him with blacks, maybe 10% would be enough.

Anonymous dagwood September 28, 2016 11:00 AM  

It's weird: a lot of black voters will go for Hillary, simply for the gibsmedat. But a certain amount will connect with the alpha. Trump is a strongman, plus he's not afraid of being an asshole. I think that will connect with more black voters than Rodan realizes. What will be the percentage? Tough to call.

Anonymous Broken Arrow September 28, 2016 11:00 AM  

Voter turnout is what sank Romney, and if Clinton loses will likely be what sinks her as well. It appears that black voters are not enthusiastic about her and Millennials hate her and the DNC after what they did to Bernie.

Blogger James Dixon September 28, 2016 11:02 AM  

> Trump must have poll watchers in place in force at heavily minority precincts.

And what good will that do when no one in the system will do anything about the fraud?

Anonymous Alexander, #10 September 28, 2016 11:10 AM  

Generally speaking I like the RCP maps - I want to get that out of the way first - but I think there may be some internal pressure going on there, that they're terrified of actually showing Trump over the bar. The past week, they've had Florida going back-and-forth any time Trump gets within a hairsbreadth of hitting 270.

Which is weird, because at the same time, they have shifted Maine and Minnesota into 'toss-up'.

Yes, Florida has been a battle-ground state, and even if Hillary's campaign is panicking over it perhaps that's still a fair classification. But no way on God's green earth is Florida even remotely close in a year where Minnesota is competitive. At least, not until we reach overt GOP = White Nationalism Party and John Scalzi is begging to be let in and screaming that he hated invaders all along.

Seriously though, it would be like the GOP fighting for Ohio in a year Mississippi was going blue.

Blogger Student in Blue September 28, 2016 11:10 AM  

"Pokemon Go to the polls!"

Thanks, Clinton.

Blogger U PC BRO? September 28, 2016 11:11 AM  

@35

If massive voter fraud was documented and proven I don't think white America would stand for it. Not this time.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr September 28, 2016 11:13 AM  

I've noticed that Trump is doing nationally what Larry Hogan did in Maryland two years ago - he's running in the Black community as a conservative. No pandering, just pointing out that the Dems haven't delivered, and that his policies will help them. And yes, if Trump can get 10-15% of that group, it's over. He wins.

Polling this week will be interesting to watch. What I'm seeing is that the DC/NYC punditocracy thought Hillary won the debate...while people outside the I-95 Axis thought Trump did well.

Anonymous VFM #6306 September 28, 2016 11:14 AM  

The black vote is irrelevant again if you can't inspire white guilt anymore.

Blogger Aeoli Pera September 28, 2016 11:14 AM  

Hang on, you're saying the hall monitor and the black kids aren't natural allies? Mind blown.

Anonymous VFM #6306 September 28, 2016 11:17 AM  

Clinton's left to angle for the "fat murderess" vote, but the only problem is that with her breathing issues, she can't even run that fast.

Anonymous BGKB September 28, 2016 11:21 AM  

Clinton campaign in ‘panic mode’ over Florida black voters

Remember when people thought I was crazy that TRUMP could get 15% of the living black vote, despite being a race realist? This is so sweet I want to make up a new disqus account to share the link with my community as it would certainly ban it.

16 years of relentless propaganda from the MSM that Bill Clinton's presidency was a financial highlight in US history

I thought it was AL GORE who invented the internet which allowed small businesses to do lightly taxed lightly regulated sales to the entire world?

I would bet she's got a stack of these waiting. Trump is a moron and will keep falling for it

TRUMP'S campaign identified a scowling hag undecided voter as a campaign worker for Jeb(although that might be believable) and another audience critic lying about a question TRUMP responded to him with video of him wearing the same "Harvard" shirt talking to the ambassador of Japan. Maybe TRUMPS team left out a drunk illegal alien woman to trick one of his critics into raping her? Seriously TRUMP has Julian Assange on his side and you are talking about affirmative action liberal workers.

Anonymous Helton Strom September 28, 2016 11:29 AM  

Anyone have the full cross-tab of expected ObamaCare rate increases that are to be officially announced a week or so before the election and the current poling among the swing- and lean-Clinton states? My quick search found some of the data, and indicated ~24% increase, and 23% nationwide, and that (if accurate) is bound to leave a bad taste in the mouth of would-be dem voters.

Blogger bob k. mando September 28, 2016 11:34 AM  

10. Greg Jenkins September 28, 2016 10:13 AM
I would bet she's got a stack of these waiting. Trump is a moron and will keep falling for it and he's got a catacomb's worth of skeletons in his closet.



Hello, Steve Sailor? my woodpile seems to be infested with morons, could you exterminate them?

http://www.unz.com/isteve/

Anonymous BGKB September 28, 2016 11:35 AM  

Don't Hillary and her gamma fags understand pop culture?

Not sure if you wanted a serious answer. Almost all gay sites say HilLIARy won massively on the debate, ignored Clintons cough/shimmying/google eyes. Thought Holt didn't do enough to reign in TRUMP. They also made fun of him complaining about his mic, that he kept having to pull up. Faggots that have no problem saying taxpayers(or other people on their insurance company) should pay for them to take $1500/month/person TRUVADA Prep instead of them using condoms, say TRUMP is unpatriotic for not wanting to pay more taxes. They also think moslems are not as bad as STR8 YT Church Going Christian Men because they can name someone that didn't kill anyone but isn't a black moslem serial killer of gays in 3 states. I have not seen any account of the Clinton foundation giving diluted AIDS drugs to Africa on any site but gaypatriot, and the number of gays that could understand that it forced AIDS to become drug resistant faster is low.

Blogger residentMoron September 28, 2016 11:37 AM  

"after what they did to Bernie"

You mean, after what they and Bernie did to Bernie's supporters?

Anonymous mature craig September 28, 2016 11:40 AM  

I was about to make a really dumbass comment..but before I did, I did a little fact check...good thing i didnt write that..i would have looked like a total moron

Anonymous Psychedelic Cat Hair September 28, 2016 11:42 AM  

But but but all those people from PA can't not vote for Hillary cause...woman..and Democrat!

Anonymous SumDood September 28, 2016 11:42 AM  

OT:

Glenn Reynolds (Instapundit) ponders leaving Twitter for Gab. His adoption of Gab would be a win in every sense.

"And beginning to plan my exodus from Twitter. Not quite sure the best way to go about that — if I just delete my account, I think somebody else can pick it up. Maybe I’ll just sign out and let it keep robo-tweeting stuff from the blog. And lots of people are saying that I should move to Gab, but I don’t know much about it. Feel free to offer advice in the comments."

Anonymous Helton Strom September 28, 2016 11:44 AM  

I'm betting the Dems are really hoping for low turnout, so they can "assist" names on the voting rolls by filling out the ballots for them. With high turnout, they will have fewer chances to use ready-to-count ballots. Because even the dimmest of voter can see something wrong with 105% turnout.

Anonymous BGKB September 28, 2016 11:46 AM  

If massive voter fraud was documented and proven I don't think white America would stand for it. Not this time

A Project Veritas behind every blade of grass.

Anonymous Casey September 28, 2016 11:47 AM  

It's absolutely true when Trump says that the worst impact from black crime is absorbed by other blacks and blacks know this.

There's a high number of blacks living in the inner cities who aren't exactly model citizens. But they're not murderers either.

That black demographic is getting very tired of having to constantly worry about being killed in their front yard by gangbanger thugs.

Trump is very wise to be talking straight to those people.

It no wonder that he's drawing significant support from the black community.

Blogger residentMoron September 28, 2016 11:50 AM  

The black community. Now there's a nice idea.

There's no black community, only a black jungle.

Blogger Teri September 28, 2016 11:59 AM  

@10,
The Vox story is dumb. It's a lot like they tried to pull with Herman Cain and other Repubs. She says he called her those things and no one else heard him say them. He is the one with a woman spokesperson for his campaign and a woman running his campaign. I think the article that thought this was a set up to have him attack Bill Clinton is closer to the truth. He didn't respond to the attack and so this is all they are left with. I don't see that this helps her at all, especially given the stories about her brush with the law.

Anonymous Casey September 28, 2016 12:01 PM  

Maybe it is a black jungle, but Hillary tries to make it sound like it's a place where life is beautiful. Trump correctly refers to it as a hell hole and says that he will work to make it less so.

I think he's serious about clamping down on the violence.

That resonates with some blacks, some it doesn't. But it's the best tactic he has for pulling black votes.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother September 28, 2016 12:03 PM  

Uh oh demon spawn.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 28, 2016 12:13 PM  

I saw that article about the Florida black voters.
There has been many many vids on Twitter and FB where black people are furious at Obama over his comments about it being a personal insult if they don't vote for Hillary.

I think OHammed screwed the pooch on that one.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 28, 2016 12:17 PM  

Big Gay I'm not necessarily talking about gays when I write "fags", but basically a bunch of girly men who act bitchy to impress the queen bitch. Maybe those types are bi-curious but that is not my business.

Think Big Lebowski

Blogger Were-Puppy September 28, 2016 12:19 PM  

@19 VFM #7191

You talking about the same Alicia Machado that admitted to being an accessory to murder and threatening a judge on Anderson Cooper the other night?
---

A lot of these latinos on twitter are also calling her a porn star, so there are more skeletons in her closet that will be clanking around.

Blogger dh September 28, 2016 12:21 PM  

If she can only pull 85% she's probably in deep trouble.

It's frustrating dealing with people who functionally illiterate about how elections work.

It doesn't matter of Sec. Clinton gets 75%, 85%, or 95% of the black vote. It doesn't matter if Trump gets 30% of the black vote.

Black voter turnout nationwide was 66% in 2012. It was 53% in 1996. This is compared to 61% and 64%. In 2012, black voter turnout as a percentage of voters exceeded white voter turnout.

In 2012, Obama's entire margin of victory in Florida was the difference in voter turnout between the median year for white voters.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 28, 2016 12:21 PM  

The Hillary campaign needs to bring back Khan, that's the ticket. Only a gold star lawyer and his veiled silent wife can save the Zombie.

Blogger Were-Puppy September 28, 2016 12:32 PM  

@58 Mr.MantraMan

Big Gay I'm not necessarily talking about gays when I write "fags", but basically a bunch of girly men who act bitchy to impress the queen bitch. Maybe those types are bi-curious but that is not my business.
---

You mean like this one?*

https://twitter.com/KovenantOh/status/781148374925971456

*Channels Dark Ninja of Mockery

Anonymous Helton Strom September 28, 2016 12:45 PM  

dh - I think turnout does matter. The lower it is, the more easily the Dems can "find" ballots that are marked 100% Dem. Even very dim and very honest people get suspicious when turnout is 123% of registered voters in historically low-turnout communities.

Blogger VFM #7634 September 28, 2016 12:45 PM  

In 2012, black voter turnout as a percentage of voters exceeded white voter turnout.


@dh
And I'm reasonably sure that Trump is more exciting than Romney, which will increase white turnout, whereas Hillary is less exciting than Obama, which will decrease black turnout.

I don't buy that there has been a secular increase in black turnout. Obama made a difference, but he's not running now.

Anonymous A Most Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Deplorable Cents September 28, 2016 12:59 PM  

dh
It's frustrating dealing with people who functionally illiterate about how elections work.

I feel your pain.

It doesn't matter of Sec. Clinton gets 75%, 85%, or 95% of the black vote. It doesn't matter if Trump gets 30% of the black vote.

In Florida it matters, doesn't it?

Black voter turnout nationwide was 66% in 2012. It was 53% in 1996.

What was different in 2012 from 1996? And what was it in 2000?

This is compared to 61% and 64%. In 2012, black voter turnout as a percentage of voters exceeded white voter turnout.

Is this year just like 2012? Or is there some difference in black support for electing Clinton vs. support for re-electing Obama?

In 2012, Obama's entire margin of victory in Florida was the difference in voter turnout between the median year for white voters.

I'm pretty sure Obama isn't on the ballot this year.

You're clearly frustrated. But I'm not sure it's me and other people that is the cause.

Blogger James Dixon September 28, 2016 1:07 PM  

> If massive voter fraud was documented and proven I don't think white America would stand for it. Not this time.

If Hillary gets elected, the voter fraud will be the least of white America's problems.

> It's frustrating dealing with people who functionally illiterate about how elections work.

You need to stop using that line, dh. I've lived through more elections than you have. I know how they work. Which is why I'm refusing to even attempt to call this one. There are simply too many unknown variables.

Blogger Chris Mallory September 28, 2016 1:17 PM  

VFM #7634 wrote:And I'm reasonably sure that Trump is more exciting than Romney,

Trump hasn't expressed the desire for half the white vote to die in a fire like Romney did. That respect for the white working class will increase turn out.

Anonymous mature craig September 28, 2016 1:18 PM  

I didnt follow the 2012 election at all. I was completely un inspired by Romney.

Anonymous Bellator Mortalis September 28, 2016 1:33 PM  

I think Trump wins if enough blacks simply don't bother to show up at the polls. Voting for him is just frosting on the cake.

Blogger dh September 28, 2016 1:47 PM  

And I'm reasonably sure that Trump is more exciting than Romney, which will increase white turnout, whereas Hillary is less exciting than Obama, which will decrease black turnout.

That's Trump's best bet. However, except for white men, Mr. Trump still has a problem in that he's not popular enough with white voters. Even for white men, it's not enough, he has big pockets of problems. Namely, college educated white men living in or near cities.

I don't buy that there has been a secular increase in black turnout. Obama made a difference, but he's not running now.

https://www.census.gov/prod/2013pubs/p20-568.pdf

Page 2.

Black Voters

2004: 14 million voted
2008: 16.1 million voted
2012: 17.8 million voted

White voters (non-hispanic)

2004: 99.5 million voters
2008: 100.5 million voters
2012: 98.0 million voters

There was an absolute increase in black voters and an absolute decrease in white voters.

Blogger dh September 28, 2016 1:48 PM  

You need to stop using that line, dh. I've lived through more elections than you have. I know how they work. Which is why I'm refusing to even attempt to call this one. There are simply too many unknown variables.

Then stop talking about vote totals in percentages. The percentage is not in question. Trump can get 20% of black voters and it won't matter if turnout is like a mid-term.

Blogger dh September 28, 2016 1:49 PM  

I'm pretty sure Obama isn't on the ballot this year.
Right, the point is that if black turnout is close to 2012 or 2008, it's one election. If it regresses to the mean, it's another.

Blogger dh September 28, 2016 1:50 PM  

dh - I think turnout does matter. The lower it is, the more easily the Dems can "find" ballots that are marked 100% Dem. Even very dim and very honest people get suspicious when turnout is 123% of registered voters in historically low-turnout communities.

No, fraud is extremely unlikely in low-turnout communities. It's way easier to run the vote totals in heavily populated areas.

Blogger praetorian September 28, 2016 2:07 PM  

> It's frustrating dealing with people who functionally illiterate about how elections work.

Navigation Status: Nimble

Blogger freddy September 28, 2016 2:33 PM  

https://www.google.com/amp/www.ibtimes.com/kill-white-people-black-lives-matter-graffiti-florida-alarms-residents-2423112%3famp=1?client=ms-android-metropcs-us

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents September 28, 2016 2:36 PM  

@71
I'm pretty sure Obama isn't on the ballot this year.

Right, the point is that if black turnout is close to 2012 or 2008, it's one election. If it regresses to the mean, it's another.

That's what we've been pointing out to you for a while.

Blogger tz September 28, 2016 2:40 PM  

Florida, Ohio,...
Pennsylvania and Michigan should fall next.
But she is against the "Right to Work" as demonstrated by insuring lots of people in those states will remain unemployed until the globalists are ejected.
And she wonders "Why am I not up 50 points". And is executing staff - virtually for the moment, but if Mook ends up in Ft. Marcy park...

Blogger Deplorable Gaiseric September 28, 2016 2:44 PM  

That's Trump's best bet. However, except for white men, Mr. Trump still has a problem in that he's not popular enough with white voters. Even for white men, it's not enough, he has big pockets of problems. Namely, college educated white men living in or near cities.

Trump is like a very gruff doctor with no bedside manner. When he tells you that you need to lose 50 lbs and stop smoking or drinking if you want to see 2020, you're offended, you're angry, and you think he's crazy.

Most people eventually come around to realizing that he's telling you the truth, even if they don't like it. I'm mistrustful of this idea that Trump isn't popular enough with white voters. Especially when a presidential candidate hasn't been slagged this hard in the socially acceptable propaganda in living memory. I think Trump is a great deal more popular than you think he is, and that this election has the mother of all Bradley effects already in place.

You can't measure the Bradley effect until after the fact, of course, by definition. But if you assume that since you can't measure it, you shouldn't account for it, your analysis is likely to be not only wrong, but very, very wrong.

Blogger Chris Mallory September 28, 2016 2:44 PM  

Using 2012 numbers, the only way the black vote impacts the election is if the Republican share of the black vote jumps to 25% or if the turnout percentage of black voters drops to 30%. What matters is the white vote. For Trump to win, he needs 63-64% of the white vote.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/08/26/demographics_and_the_2016_election_scenarios.html

Anonymous Ominous Cowherd September 28, 2016 2:49 PM  

dh wrote:Black Voters

2004: 14 million voted

2008: 16.1 million voted

2012: 17.8 million voted

White voters (non-hispanic)

2004: 99.5 million voters

2008: 100.5 million voters

2012: 98.0 million voters

There was an absolute increase in black voters and an absolute decrease in white voters.


Very true.

In 2012, as a white man, why should I go to the polls to vote for Romney-care when I already had 0bammy-care?

In 2008, as a white man, why should I go to the polls to vote for McStain, who has made it clear that he hates me and wants to replace me with wetbacks?

In 2016, as a white man, why should I go to the polls to vote for one of my own, who promises to stop the flood of murderers coming to kill my family and promises to make my country great again?

Does it make sense to you that I might get a different answer to my 2016 question than to my earlier questions? It seems very plausible to me that we are going to see both the black and white trends reverse.

Blogger Basil Makedon September 28, 2016 3:18 PM  

If you look at Nate Silver's interactive demographic map and hold 2012 voting patterns constant for 2016 HRC wins 51.7% (332 EVs) to 46.6 (206 EVs).

That year, Obama receive 66% turnout with 93% support of the Black vote. If the support remains the same, I have to reduce the turnout to 50% before any states flip from blue to red. Once I do so, Ohio and Florida flip. This seems unlikely to me, and would still not result in victory.

Obama won 71% of the Hispanic vote with 49% turnout. I have to drop their turnout to 15% to get even Florida to flip. This also seems unlike to me, and still would not result in victory.

If I take non-college educated whites and increase Trump's support to 69% from Romney's 62%, then Trump wins. If I jack up turnout to 100% with Romney's 62%, Trump still does not win.

If I take college educated whites and increase Trump's support to 63% v. Romney's 56% then Trump wins. At 56% support and 100% turnout, Trump still does not win.

However, if I start adjusting the White support levels and lowering the Black and Hispanic turnout only -- i.e., not White turnout and not Black/Hispanic support levels, it does not take much for Trump to win.

With 59% (up from 56%) CEW, with 65% (up from 62%) NCW, with 65% (down from 66%) BTO and with 48% (down from 49%) HTO, Trump wins the EV 272 to 266. This is a realistic scenario.

Blogger Basil Makedon September 28, 2016 3:20 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Anonymous VFM #6306 September 28, 2016 3:29 PM  

Clinton is the perfect storm: lower white Democratic turnout, lower percentage white support, lower black turnout, lower percentage support, lower hispanic turnout, lower percentage support. Trump can do exactly as well or worse than Romney, percentage-wise...and still beat Coffin Hill.

Of course, he's doing better where it matters: with all whites, turnout and percentage. She ought to use some of her remaining cash to hire Michael Dukakis for pre-emptive grief counseling.

Is he still alive?

Blogger Deplorable Gaiseric September 28, 2016 3:43 PM  

VFM #6306 wrote:She ought to use some of her remaining cash to hire Michael Dukakis for pre-emptive grief counseling.

Is he still alive?

Apparently. Walter Mondale too. They could all have a great pity party together.

Anonymous Ironsides September 28, 2016 3:46 PM  

VFM #6306 wrote:
Of course, he's doing better where it matters: with all whites, turnout and percentage. She ought to use some of her remaining cash to hire Michael Dukakis for pre-emptive grief counseling.

Is he still alive?


Yes, he's still alive, at 82. Of course, Hellary is some kind of undead kept in lurching motion by a battalion of mad-eyed necromancers, so...

Anonymous a_peraspera September 28, 2016 4:00 PM  

There was a lot of assumed "Bradley effect" in 2008 and 2012 as well.

A lot of people thought folks were just being pro-Obama in public because it was the socially acceptable thing to say, but assumed they would vote for the white guy in private.

In the end everyone talked pro-Obama - and then voted for Obama.

Blogger GFR September 28, 2016 4:02 PM  

@54
.
Please explain why it WOULDN'T be a good idea for Trump to go after bill for RAPING a woman. Hillary was in charge of assassinating the character of women who bill had molested. Why would American view hillary as a figter for womens rights when she basically was an enabler for her rapist husband.
.
She would have gotten a lot more votes if she had divorced him - maybe there is still time for her to do that...

Blogger Bard September 28, 2016 4:05 PM  

Just finished Cernovich's Danger and Play. In it he describes an easy way to get outside your mind for a bit. He recommends focusing on something external but simple. Today I chose to look for cars with Hillary bumper stickers. I drive 45 min one way to work. There and back I saw exactly one Hillary bumper sticker. If people are not even interested enough to put a sticker on their car, they are not going to show at the polls.

Anonymous dagwood September 28, 2016 4:20 PM  

This election is going to make your head explode. Democracy will be officially over. Entire truckloads of Dem votes are going to be suddenly "found" on freakin' Neptune, and Trump votes are going to use up entire landfills in the deserts of Utah. They're going for the jugular this time, and as David Byrne once said, "I don't care what I look like." They intend to take over, pack SCOTUS with lunatics who will be around for 30 years, and act like the full-on psychopaths they actually are.

The biggest worry is the Electoral College vote; Trump could win substantially in the popular vote, and still lose the EV. California, New York and Texas should each be five separate states.

The good news is that after the Dems' (or I should say the non-Whites/lunatics coalition) unbelievably hateful, spiteful victory dance (you're not going to believe this sh!t), White Americans will finally realize the only option left is civil war and partition. The bad news is, the risk of that involves intervention by both the Chinese and the UN, with Whites winding up in FEMA camps with UN Nigerian rapists/guards. Maybe Putin will come to the rescue.

Interesting times indeed. Hope I'm completely wrong.

Blogger tublecane September 28, 2016 4:33 PM  

@7-That's why the Democrats were fools to nominate Obama in '08. Which looked like a good thing, given his near-apotheosis that year. But they could've had that later, plus maybe 16 years of ruling the White House. Instead, he jumped the line, and this time they were left with no alternative to an older, uglier Clinton and no Bush to beat around. Had she gone first Obama would still be fresh. Oh, well.

Blogger Basil Makedon September 28, 2016 4:51 PM  

@89 Only if you believe that McCain would have also lost to Hillary. I'm not sure you can assume that

Blogger Basil Makedon September 28, 2016 4:51 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Anonymous BGKB September 28, 2016 4:51 PM  

http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/09/trump-turns-away-12000-at-tuesdays-florida-rally-same-amount-as-all-of-hillarys-rallies-since-july/

Blogger GFR September 28, 2016 4:52 PM  

@89
.
What you have described was their intention. Obama was supposed to be hillarys VP. They screwed up because they didn't realize that once obama had had a couple of primary successes he would go for the whole enchilada.

Blogger James Dixon September 28, 2016 4:54 PM  

> Then stop talking about vote totals in percentages. The percentage is not in question. Trump can get 20% of black voters and it won't matter if turnout is like a mid-term.

Percentage of voters in a category x percentage of turnout for that category x number of voters in a category = real votes cast. That's why the percentages matter.

Anything that throws the numbers off their historic norms throws the election into even more uncharted territory than it is already.

> The good news is that after the Dems' (or I should say the non-Whites/lunatics coalition) unbelievably hateful, spiteful victory dance (you're not going to believe this sh!t), White Americans will finally realize the only option left is civil war and partition.

It's a sorry state of affairs when your civil war is your only "good" option. Let's hope for everyone's sake it isn't that bad yet.

Anonymous dagwood September 28, 2016 5:05 PM  

@89 and 93: No, you have no idea what sort of forces were behind Obama and pushing relentlessly for him, ever since Columbia and HLS. They picked him out early. He was anointed long before you could believe, because well-spoken Negro who was secretly a communist, a race man, and probably a Muslim, but who didn't have the historical African-American grudges [after all, he is half African, but he does not share African-American history and heritage.] He was Jesse Jackson without sounding like Jesse Jackson. A perfect fit.

They wanted him in there very strongly indeed, because (((our good friends))) were very intent on establishing the plausible concept of a non-White president, because reasons. Hillary would have been a speed bump. She is an afterthought, a mopping-up operation. That's why they're so furious at Trump, for getting in the way, and that's why they were so unimaginably vicious with Sarah Palin (people tend to forget just how outrageous and rabid the campaign against her was, simply because the one against Trump is worse.)

Anonymous Sam the Man September 28, 2016 5:10 PM  

One thing I have noticed is the on line poll results.

The press told US trump lost the debate...badly at that. Hillary is great, blah, blah, blah...

Yet the time magazine poll of winners/losers, last time I checked had Trump at 55%, Hillary at 45 % with 1.95 million responses.

The CNBC poll, hardly a right win site had ~980,000 responses and that had Trump @ 66 % and Hillary at 34 %

Since Monday I have seen two more Trump signs go out on lawns on my way to work in Bucks county (eastern PA). I have seen no Hillary posters on my way to work to date.

Trump drew in something like 32 million in donations between 11PM Monday and the end of the day Tuesday, or so a coworker tests me (I saw 18 million on Tuesday at lunch)

This is the same pattern we saw in the primary. The debate would occur, the press would say Trump had failed and now would go down in the polls and the on- line polls would show he won it very handy. Also every time folks I worked with became more pro trump. I think it is happening now.

Not saying Trump is going to win it, I do not think anyone can model this election, because of the all the unknowns. I have been watching politics since 1976, first voted in 1984 and this election feels different. The charges of racism no longer work, the right is no longer in any mode to put up with crap from the left. This may well be a political realignment election, much like 1860, 1932 and 1980 were. Very easy to look back and see how they would end up the way they did, but a month before the elections no one could really predict the outcome, too much had changed to allow the traditional polling/prediction algorithms to work.

Blogger Robert Coble September 28, 2016 5:17 PM  

OT: "Pepe the Frog, a cartoon character popular with alt-right campaigners and some Donald Trump supporters, has been declared a hate symbol by the (((Anti-Defamation League)))."

Link: Feels Bad Man: Pepe the Frog Is Declared Symbol of Hate

Why does this seem like the perfect opportunity to declare: WE DON'T CARE!

Anonymous Down and Out in... September 28, 2016 5:17 PM  

Even if Trump loses (D.N.), he is still Lexington and Concord, not Appommatox. He is the start of something, not the end of it.

Blogger GFR September 28, 2016 5:26 PM  

@89
.
What you have described was their intention. Obama was supposed to be hillarys VP. They screwed up because they didn't realize that once obama had had a couple of primary successes he would go for the whole enchilada.

Blogger GFR September 28, 2016 5:26 PM  

@54
.
Please explain why it WOULDN'T be a good idea for Trump to go after bill for RAPING a woman. Hillary was in charge of assassinating the character of women who bill had molested. Why would American view hillary as a figter for womens rights when she basically was an enabler for her rapist husband.
.
She would have gotten a lot more votes if she had divorced him - maybe there is still time for her to do that...

Blogger Chris Mallory September 28, 2016 5:27 PM  

School shooting in SC. Two wounded 6 year olds and one wounded adult at the school. A dead adult was found in a nearby home. Teen suspect is in custody. How long till Clinton doubles down on gun control?

Anonymous Yay Trump September 28, 2016 6:06 PM  

The RCP modeller mentioned earlier in this thread isn't perfect, but it's ok for some educated guessing. Black turnout under 60% means Trump only has to do very slightly better than Romney with whites to win narrowly. Lower black turnout means Trump can win with 61-62% of the white vote at 2012 turnout levels, which were a little low and might well be higher.

All signs point to a low minority turnout and low female turnout election, which favors the R side of the board. Hillary's staff sure aren't conducting themselves like people who have Florida and Ohio sewn up. Obama's people definitely were in 2012 and 2008.

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY September 28, 2016 7:14 PM  

I think Trump is going to do better with coloreds and hispanics,( not illegals )
Than most people realize, especially the pollsters.
My own nonscientific poll show Trump being favored amongst SW MS coloreds big time. Women of color I speak to do not like the Hillbitch at all, and the working negro men are all on board with Trump. She's got troubles , the Ubangis around here are fed up with the Dumbocrat plantation system. Hallelujah !

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY September 28, 2016 7:20 PM  

"Why does this seem like the perfect opportunity to declare: WE DON'T CARE!"
Because it is, Robert. Paraniod liberal Jooz see this slipping out of their grasp, and it's about damn time.

Anonymous Grinder September 28, 2016 9:28 PM  

Lately Trump has been sounding like a fag and his shit's all retarded. I want Trump to win because I hate the Clintons but Trump owes plenty to Fox News for helping smooth over the embarrassing debate. As for whether it is some cunning on Donald's part for later debates I have to say I don't see evidence of much intelligence in him despite his claims of a high I.Q. score. A smart man would have realized the scam by the time of the sabre rattling call for intervention in Libya but Trump totally did call for Kaddafi's toppling (by US intervention). I was opposed to all interventions since before NATO's bombing of Christian Serbia in '99 for the purpose of carving out some territory for a Muslim country. I think Trump should delegate his campaigning to experts and stop saying stupid things unless he secretly wants to lose this election that is 100% his to lose.

Blogger Daniel September 28, 2016 9:28 PM  

Funny fact: A mayor newspaper in argentina had a full article about pepe

Blogger Basil Makedon September 28, 2016 9:58 PM  

@102 It was 538 not RCP that I posted, but yes that is an accurate summary. Black turn out will almost certainly be lower, the question is how much lower. It remains to be seen whether Trump can do better than Romney's dismal 7% share of the vote. One interesting item that I discovered playing with the dials on the 538 model is actually that the hispanic vote does not swing the election much. I suspect is that they are concentrated in already decided states -- California, Texas, New York, New Jersey. Florida being an exception. So really, yes Trump absolutely must do better with whites than Romney either by boosting turnout or more effectively raising his level of support. About 3.5% better would seal the deal.

Blogger Basil Makedon September 28, 2016 9:58 PM  

@102 It was 538 not RCP that I posted, but yes that is an accurate summary. Black turn out will almost certainly be lower, the question is how much lower. It remains to be seen whether Trump can do better than Romney's dismal 7% share of the vote. One interesting item that I discovered playing with the dials on the 538 model is actually that the hispanic vote does not swing the election much. I suspect is that they are concentrated in already decided states -- California, Texas, New York, New Jersey. Florida being an exception. So really, yes Trump absolutely must do better with whites than Romney either by boosting turnout or more effectively raising his level of support. About 3.5% better would seal the deal.

Blogger Bard September 28, 2016 10:01 PM  

Take this with a grain of salt, but I was talking with two of my medics and a patient today in clinic. One of the medics is black and the other two are Hispanic. All 3 are ardent Trump supporters. I asked them how their families back home felt about him. All three agreed that their immediate and extended families hate him. They also agreed that they were actively trying to persuade them otherwise.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 28, 2016 11:00 PM  

Hunter at Occidental Dissent says bad polling news coming tomorrow, so maybe stow the party hats for now

Blogger Mr.MantraMan September 28, 2016 11:23 PM  

Something about some PPP polling of some swing states

Blogger john edgmon September 29, 2016 4:58 AM  

Most blacks don't hate white people. Comments like yours are why some black youth grow up hating white people before they they are old enough to form their OWN opinion.. YOU are the racist.. Crawl back to your rock

Blogger bosscauser September 29, 2016 6:38 AM  

Obama won in Florida by about 74 thousand votes.
She's toast!

Let's go #Trump and hurry!

Blogger bosscauser September 29, 2016 6:38 AM  

Obama won in Florida by about 74 thousand votes.
She's toast!

Let's go #Trump and hurry!

Anonymous mature craig September 29, 2016 8:23 AM  

You know what song I think of when I see Mike pence? Smooth operator smoooooooth operatooor by the beautiful and talented Sade....but then I was thinking that song would have worked even better with Dr. Ben Carson a neurosurgeon and he has more soul..then I was thinking I wonder if he used to hum that too himself when he operated maybe that song was a major part of his vocation

Anonymous mature craig September 29, 2016 8:35 AM  

pence--->Pence

Anonymous Ominous Cowherd September 30, 2016 9:37 AM  

john edgmon wrote:Most blacks don't hate white people. Comments like yours ...

It doesn't have to be all, or even most, to cause disaster for the blacks. It just has to be enough. Looking at the news, we might be well past enough.

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