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Wednesday, October 19, 2016

The odds favor Trump

Not the betting odds, but rather, the number of betters, predict a Brexit-style upset:
It is news that will strike fear into the hearts of perhaps half of America and large chunks of the world outside of it. Despite a calamitous week of campaigning, betting markets on the US election are almost a mirror image of those on Britain’s EU referendum at this stage. And they could be pointing to a victory for Donald Trump.

Bookmaker William Hill says 71 per cent of the money so far staked is for Democrat Hillary Clinton. But 65 per cent of the bets by number are for the controversial Republican. That means a lot more punters are putting smaller bets on Trump, almost exactly the same pattern as was seen in the run up to the Brexit vote when the money was for Remain but the majority of bets were for Leave.

William Hill’s spokesman and resident betting expert Graham Sharpe, an industry veteran of 44 years standing, said: “It’s very, very similar to the Brexit vote. There is a metropolitan media bias that says Trump can’t win, but they can’t vote. In betting terms, this is not a done deal. I see parallels with the Brexit vote at this stage.”
On the other hand, they've still only increased the odds to 4-1 against. Nate Silver is calling it 85 percent for Hillary.

Still, they all sound awfully desperate and shrill, especially compared to anyone who can remember Reagan landslide.

Labels:

152 Comments:

Blogger Ransom Smith October 19, 2016 1:05 PM  

I'm honestly shocked Hillary didn't drop out of the debate.

Blogger Cataline Sergius October 19, 2016 1:05 PM  

There is a metropolitan media bias that says Trump can’t win, but they can’t vote. In betting terms, this is not a done deal. I see parallels with the Brexit vote at this stage.”

That's what I've been saying.


And the metro areas really are apathetic about Hillary. Get outside the city limits and its a field of Trump signs.

Polls are always based on the previous electoral cycle and then adjustments are made. That is why they tend to be inaccurate in forecasting a wave year. The ground has shifted too much beneath their feet.

Blogger clk October 19, 2016 1:09 PM  

No matter what else anyone says .. its been an entertaining show.. I almost hope the Trump doesn't win and instead focuses on his Trump TV ... but we're in the last leg of this race and I suspect the winner has already been chosen by the powers to be...

Anonymous That Would Be Telling October 19, 2016 1:11 PM  

One big difference between 1980 and 2016 is that Carter didn't have a good relationship with the media, things like "America Held Hostage: 287 Days" (the embassy hostages) appearing on the national broadcast news are unthinkable today. Which is especially interesting since Hillary is quite a bit worse than Carter.

Blogger Orville October 19, 2016 1:11 PM  

The elevators at work all have TV's with CNN running on them. Clinton News Network is going on about how Hillary has a lock on 273, and you might as well put a bullet in your head if you thought Trump could win.

In all my years, I've never seen this level of outright propaganda blitz. That is the tell, that this election is in no way "in the bag" for Hillary. Even Limbaugh was saying that while I was out at lunch, saying he couldn't believe that so many newly registered voters who came specifically for The Donald during the primaries, have now packed it in and will stay home or vote for Hillary. We live in a propaganda machine. Even the local talk radio is parroting it.

Best Tools For Men

Blogger Alexander October 19, 2016 1:12 PM  

I put £20 on Trump back at the beginning of the summer, at 9/4.

@1 Internal polls suggesting Hillary needs to at least take a crack at it? Giving too much spotlight/legitimacy if she quit?

I don't know - I fully expected a droppout .

Blogger Orville October 19, 2016 1:12 PM  

And the signs...I'm not seeing hardly any for either presidential candidate in the KC area. This is not like previous years.

Blogger Johnny October 19, 2016 1:14 PM  

It is more than just unreliable polling. Often it is outright manipulation. Given current odds, if it could be done I would put some money down on Trump.

There seems to be an ongoing tendency to overestimate the favorite early on in these elections. I am tempted to look into it and if frequent enough bets can be made, just always bet against the favorite early in the election cycle.

Blogger Whisker biscuit October 19, 2016 1:15 PM  

I'm still betting on a YUGE Trump victory. He's just too damn popular out here in the fruited plains. There's a massive silent majority that's being overlooked that is salivating to throw the filth out of DC.

TRUMPSLIDE IS COMING

Blogger VFM #7634 October 19, 2016 1:15 PM  

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/2016/10/18/media-polls/

The Example: The Michigan Democrat Primary was held on March 8th 2016.

WikiLeaks most recent releases show in the last week of February and first week of March 2016 the U.S. Media was doing all they could to aid the Clinton Campaign. -It’s all out in the open now- Talking points were distributed by the campaign and pushed heavily by the pro-Clinton media water-carriers, including media polling organizations….

◾Monmouth (Patrick Murray) Poll March 7th had Clinton up by 13 points.
◾ARG Poll March 6th had Clinton up by 24 points.
◾Fox Poll March 7th had Clinton up by 27 points.

Bernie Sanders Won by 1.5 Points.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan October 19, 2016 1:15 PM  

Someone called Gateway pundit put up a Washington Post / Survey Monkey poll showing Trump up in some battle ground states

Blogger Ransom Smith October 19, 2016 1:15 PM  

Internal polls suggesting Hillary needs to at least take a crack at it? Giving too much spotlight/legitimacy if she quit?

She's walking a fine line. Trump is going to come swinging and she's probably drugged up.

I'll admit, I fully expect tonight to be the night the suit comes off and the lizard within is revealed.

OpenID basementhomebrewer October 19, 2016 1:18 PM  

The outward signs all point to Hillary not leading as much as being spun. I remember pre-brexit vote Soros was saying "there is more of a chance leave wins but I think Remain will win." This suggests he had access to internal polling that had different results than the public polls. He wasn't going to say "Leave looks like it will win" on the off chance he could still convince voters on the bandwagon premise.

In the current situation they are still fighting Trump tooth and nail on all fronts. I suspect if Hillary was actually leading as much as claimed she would skip the debate. She isn't skipping the debate because she still needs voters. The key here will be to watch what they say a few days before the election. If you start hearing hedging like "we might not have it in the bag" or "I think it's going to be really close" from the inside operatives then Trump is likely doing better than is being let on.

If that happens, I can't wait for the months of stories about how people didn't know what they were voting for when they voted for Trump a la Brexit aftermath.

I could be wrong. I was very wrong about 2012 but there seems to be a lot more smoke here than there was in 2012.

Blogger Matthew October 19, 2016 1:18 PM  

If Trumpslide happens, can you ban clk as a celebratory act?

Blogger Badger Brigadon October 19, 2016 1:18 PM  

When you consider that the dispossessed, the unemployed with skills, and the people that want to regain the prosperity of this country from a hundred years ago are the 'little bets', it totally explains why the big money is on Hillary and the vast little money is on Trump.

Trump IS going to win, and tonight's debate (If it happens) is going to show why. Hillary keeps passing out shallow platitudes, while trump's plans are quite succinct, detailed, well thought out, and delivered in plain language that virtually anyone can understand.

Our economic troubles as a nation are very complicated, and simple solutions seldom work for complicated problems... Trump's plans hit the problems from a huge number of different angles, and while individually they are simple, when taken in concert they are every bit as complex and multilayered as the problems we face.

Three seperate programs, all quite doable, to address the job market. Five to address economic outflow, three more to address trade deficits, a round dozen to address anticompetetive practices, I understand that single-issue voters consider population displacement the most important issue in the election, but the ongoing recession is very nearly as important... and the plans include a huge number of programs and ideas to deal with the secondary problems as effectively as the primary one.

The Trumpslide is still on schedule.

Blogger Stilicho October 19, 2016 1:20 PM  

@2 @7 fewer signs than previous years in Ohio. Overwhelming majority are for Trump. Signs are starting to appear more frequently in last week. Some for hillary where there were none before, but overwhelming majority of new signs also for Trump. In urban areas, very few signs for either.

I read this as a trend in Trump's favor and a decided lack of enthusiasm for Hillary among her base. I hear swpls mocking Trump, but I hear no support or enthusiasm for Hillary. It's encouraging overall.

Anonymous johnc October 19, 2016 1:21 PM  

There's no doubt the polling data is manipulated. But don't forget, the actual voting results will be heavily manipulated also.

Blogger pyrrhus October 19, 2016 1:21 PM  

Rasmussen has it dead even today. Given the number of Trump voters who are unpollable, I consider that very good....

Blogger Mr.MantraMan October 19, 2016 1:23 PM  

IBD/Tipp poll Trump up nationally 1 point

Anonymous Broken Arrow October 19, 2016 1:24 PM  

This is the only part of the election left which is still interesting to me: How far off are the polls, if much at all?

For the record I think he's going to lose badly, but we will see.

Blogger Ransom Smith October 19, 2016 1:26 PM  

Anyone else hoping Trump slaps Chris Wallace around if he starts trying to double up?

OpenID basementhomebrewer October 19, 2016 1:26 PM  

Whisker biscuit wrote:I'm still betting on a YUGE Trump victory. He's just too damn popular out here in the fruited plains. There's a massive silent majority that's being overlooked that is salivating to throw the filth out of DC.

TRUMPSLIDE IS COMING


I am kind of curious about that. It would be a very interesting situation if Trump wins the "fly-over" states with ~60% of the vote but still loses the elections. If that happens it is a sign that CWII is coming.

Anonymous Tipsy October 19, 2016 1:30 PM  

Clearly this "Hillary has won it" propaganda is intended to demoralize Trump voters, keeping them away from the polls. Could it, though, have the opposite effect, namely, that Hillary voters, who are not terribly enthusiastic anyway, might decide to stay at home because it's already in the bag?

Anonymous Dave October 19, 2016 1:30 PM  

Here's another tie-in to Britain: https://infogalactic.com/info/Redskins_Rule (3.59 seconds to load)

The Redskin Rule has failed the last two elections but prior had correctly predicted the party winning the presidential election 18 times in a row (since they became the Washington Redskins)

The Redskins won against the Eagles this past weekend in their last home game before the election, so Democraps hold on to the White House, right?

Not so fast. This year the Redskins final "official" home game will be in London where they are the designated home team. So Brexiters get out there and support the Cincinnati Bengals when the NFL goes back to London in 10 days.

Blogger Ransom Smith October 19, 2016 1:30 PM  

Could it, though, have the opposite effect, namely, that Hillary voters, who are not terribly enthusiastic anyway, might decide to stay at home because it's already in the bag?

That's what happened with Brexit. The people went and rage voted.

Blogger Orville October 19, 2016 1:31 PM  

CWII is going to happen in any case, whether it's politics, the second leg of the Greater Depression or Comet ((((Schlomo)))) hitting the earth.

Blogger Badger Brigadon October 19, 2016 1:33 PM  

@23- Among my Maryland friends, your argument appears to be strong... a lot of the government types feel like they have more important things to do than vote for a done deal.

Basically, hedging your bets is the smart thing to do... but it is also rather cowardly. Me, I am all in. Trump has a full house aces high, and while it's possible Hilly could pull a royal flush, her victory would be about as believable.

Anonymous #5454 October 19, 2016 1:35 PM  

The minute Wallace the moderator starts pushing back and debating Trump, The Donald needs to smile broadly, look into the camera and say: "See what I mean folks? Every time, it is two on one. Rigged, just like I've been saying."

It is simple and demonstrative. Just his style.

Blogger Badger Brigadon October 19, 2016 1:36 PM  

@26- I disagree. While it may be time to restart our empire, it doesn't always have to be with widespread violence.

Such happenstance is only likely if Hillary wins AND continues Obama's race-baiting. There is likely to be violence, but it may not be on a civil war scale... If America Balkanizes (which seems extremely likely), there won't be two 'sides'to fight.

Blogger Ransom Smith October 19, 2016 1:36 PM  

The minute Wallace the moderator starts pushing back and debating Trump, The Donald needs to smile broadly, look into the camera and say: "See what I mean folks? Every time, it is two on one. Rigged, just like I've been saying."

^^This.

Almost like what Reagan did to Carter.

Anonymous Down and Out in... October 19, 2016 1:36 PM  

"single-issue voters consider population displacement the most important issue in the election, but the ongoing recession is very nearly as important"

The problem is, if you abate the recession and restore prosperity before you kick the moochers out and make it institutionally impossible to have more moochers, then with restored prosperity, even more moochers will arrive to gnaw on the restored prosperity.

I'd rather live in a recession-plagued America that was full of Americans, than a prosperous Northern Hemisphere Economic Zone Plus Racial Parking Lot where nobody speeeeeks Eeeeenglish.

Blogger Timmy3 October 19, 2016 1:38 PM  

Not a Trumpslide. A squeaker if Trump wins. The media will call it for Hillary almost immediately when the polls close. Many states on the east coast will go for Hillary. Trump has little room for error, yet his ground game is shot from the Republican Party itself.

Anonymous gxg October 19, 2016 1:40 PM  

And the signs...I'm not seeing hardly any for either presidential candidate in the KC area. This is not like previous years.

Trump signs attract vandals and negative attention. I'm a huge Trump supporter in a deep red state. I've attended a rally and donated multiple times, but have no Trump sign in my yard, even though we did post signs for both McCain and Romney (embarrassing now, in retrospect).

In contrast, there appears to be no negative consequences for posting Hillary signs.

All this to say, a lack of signs seems to bode worse for Hillary than for Trump.

Blogger Badger Brigadon October 19, 2016 1:42 PM  

@31-

The thing is, abating the recession with means such as punishing sanctuary cities, crippling the welfare giant, aggressively enforcing employment laws, enforcing the employment trade (H1b enforcement, and eliminating affirmative action and other minority incentives, will have a desirable secondary effect of sending foreigners streaming towards the borders.

Starving and on the run is worse than what they left behind in Tijuana.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan October 19, 2016 1:42 PM  

I don't think he has spent much advert money has he? There you go, two weeks out he builds a preference cascade, suddenly people start telling others "Yeah I'm voting Trump, it's cool" and shazam just like Vox predicts.

Anonymous Down and Out in... October 19, 2016 1:43 PM  

Actually, when you think about it, kicking out foreign moochers IN ITSELF restores prosperity. Look at an issue like healthcare. Assuming we had a competent government which was astute enough and concerned enough with actual Americans to do something as sane as kicking out foreign moochers and refusing to import any more, then you really could have something like functional single-payer -- for Americans only, no medical tourists or sob stories allowed. But of course that can't and won't happen, so the point is moot.

Anonymous WinstonWebb October 19, 2016 1:44 PM  

Should The Donald lose, we all need to never, ever lose sight of who the blameworthy party REALLY is. Not Hillary, not liberals, not the DNC fraud apparatus...

The traitorous GOP power brokers. If Trump loses, these assholes need to be shredded mercilessly.

Anonymous #5454 October 19, 2016 1:47 PM  

I think @gxg has called it correctly with respect to the Yard Signage Gap.

Blogger Badger Brigadon October 19, 2016 1:53 PM  

Well, I have no problem with Medical tourists as long as they pay, in cash, for their services. Of course, considering the self-pay shutdowns, Obamacare would have to be completely disabled, as would most of the preexisting insurance regulations... something which Trump has mentioned potentially doing several times.

Drug companies and inurance providers are desperate to shut down obamacare... not to allow people to pay for their own medical expenses, but so they can retreat to the mountainous healthcare insurance scam that existed before it (and still exists).

I understand why people rooted for obamacare... Our healthcare system was a pyramid scheme, but Obamacare only made the problem vastly worse by destroying the underground of low-cost providers and cash services that the non-urbanites utilized to get around the drug/healthcare juggernaut.

When we kill Obamacare, we need to also kill it's faithful hound, the medical/pharmacy complex, at the same time... or things will only get worse.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan October 19, 2016 1:53 PM  

I live in a leafy suburb full of the prized woman voters of niceness and barometers of the national mood unless the Left declares them racist or something and I have seen one Hillary sign and a few Trump signs.

Blogger VFM #7634 October 19, 2016 1:53 PM  

Clearly this "Hillary has won it" propaganda is intended to demoralize Trump voters, keeping them away from the polls. Could it, though, have the opposite effect, namely, that Hillary voters, who are not terribly enthusiastic anyway, might decide to stay at home because it's already in the bag?

@23 Tipsy
That's what happened with the Michigan Democrat primary, as I just posted. And with Brexit.

I don't understand what the point of releasing all these cooked polls showing Hillary way ahead. All it does is boost the candidate with the more enthusiastic and committed supporters, which in this case is Trump.

I mean, seriously, if Hillary is ahead, would it make you, as a Trump supporter, less likely or more likely to go out and vote?

Anecdotally, I even know of a couple people who support Trump over Hillary but aren't bothering to vote because they live in a deep red state, which is sort of the opposite situation.

Trump signs attract vandals and negative attention. I'm a huge Trump supporter in a deep red state. I've attended a rally and donated multiple times, but have no Trump sign in my yard, even though we did post signs for both McCain and Romney (embarrassing now, in retrospect).

In contrast, there appears to be no negative consequences for posting Hillary signs.

All this to say, a lack of signs seems to bode worse for Hillary than for Trump.


@33 gxg
Same thing here -- very few yard signs at all up, although I do still see a few for the Democrats.

For the record I think he's going to lose badly, but we will see.

@20 Broken Arrow
I'm not sure what will happen. I'm expecting both: a come-from-behind Trumpslide given the several recent very similar precedents, but also for Diebold and Soros' machines and the hordes of useful idiots out there to manufacture a crushing Hillary win.

Anonymous Cadwallander J October 19, 2016 1:54 PM  

Trump signs attract vandals and negative attention.

This simple fact is why Trump's support is woefully under-represented in polls. Our local rag went and outed Trump donors. The reporter harassed my wife at her workplace and kept asking for an interview - which we declined. His final story mentioned us by name, where we lived, and profession.

You think people are telling pollsters the truth? Trump's supported are waiting in the shadows, and will surge forth to bring a YUGE victory November 8th.

Blogger Badger Brigadon October 19, 2016 1:55 PM  

Paul Ryan needs his ass kicked. repeatedly. Until he has no ass left. As does Romney, and that RNC bitch with the buffy name... Rinse Prettybus.

Blogger VFM #7634 October 19, 2016 1:55 PM  

In addition to which, cooking the polls and claiming victory beforehand strikes me as a very Gamma thing to do.

Blogger Zundfolge October 19, 2016 1:59 PM  

Thing is we went through all this in 2012. Lots of really smart people coming out and showing us all line by line how the polls were improperly sampling and weighing and what not and bam, Romney lost by pretty much what the polls said he'd lose by.

My thinking is that yes, the polls are rigged. But so is the election itself and the rigged polls are to justify the rigged election outcome.

Anonymous SugarPi October 19, 2016 1:59 PM  

I remember the Reagan landslide... the comments afterwards were, "how did the polls not pick up on this?"
Answer: because they're rigged, duh!
It won't be close unless the voter fraud reaches a new level of criminality... but that could happen. Watch O'Keefe's videos of his undercover interviews of the criminals who commit the crimes for helldawg and co.

Anonymous Deplorable S E Delenda October 19, 2016 2:00 PM  

@37

Winston:

We need to make names like Bush as toxic to right as they are to the left, whether DJT wins or loses, because if he wins, they'll still be spinning heir little webs.

Blogger Alexander October 19, 2016 2:05 PM  

Ken Bone can't even get away with saying he agreed with a US Court without being raked over the coals for being a badthinker.

I've recently live in an area 60% Dindu and 35% Shitlib. But while these people mean I don't put up a Trump sign, it's also a good part of why - among other things - I've donated to Trump's campaign, helped fund Infogalactic, and gone from cosmopolitan libertarian to ethnic nationalist over two election cycles.

All things considered, (((they))) would have been better off keeping a peace that let me fly a republican sign.

Blogger Tom K. October 19, 2016 2:05 PM  

People are afraid to put up Trump signs. Libs are psycho-fanatics.

Anonymous Down and Out in... October 19, 2016 2:07 PM  

"I'm not sure what will happen."

My big worry is, Trump wins the national popular vote substantially but gets crushed in the electoral college.

Say 75% of Indiana goes Trump, and 49% of California. Trump gets Indiana's puny EC votes with only 51%, the remainder don't matter. But 49% of California votes is more votes than ALL of Indiana combined, yet it's worthless to him.

If Trump loses (D.N.), it better be close, by a hair. If Hitler wins in a landslide, the gleeful torrents of boiling hate pouring out of the Left and aimed squarely at White men will make Krakatoa and Pompeii look like a couple of cherry bombs going off in the schoolyard. They'll begin digging the mass graves by November 10th.

Then again, that just makes secession even more likely, so....

Blogger Whisker biscuit October 19, 2016 2:10 PM  

In my neck of the woods in KY, it's Trump central: signs, billboards (locally made), shirts, hats, bumper stickers, etc.

I finall saw a Saddlebags sign on the way to Mexington today---but it was on a empty piece of land that was surrounded by Trump/Pence signs and a few for Rand Paul.

But KY usually goes Red, so....

Anonymous Sam the Man October 19, 2016 2:12 PM  

I have been following the poll internals and it is obvious a lot of them are blatantly skewed, it seems to make the poll aggregators (538 RCP) still show Hillary on top. The most obvious sign is the party of respondents, with 49 % dems , 35 % republican and 19 % independent, when even using 2012 turn out models you have 35 % dem, 30 % repbub and 35 % independent. Such sampling is sure to show a dem advantage. But I found another less obvious cant in the numbers.

The number of college educated. a lot of these polls that show Hillary winning are showing 50% college educated, when the real figures are closer to 27 % White non college educated are showing a strong Trump advantage.

As there are very few black and Hispanic college educated it means in the white percentage they are way oversampling college grads.


Basically it seems a lot of the polls are worthless, though it does not leave one with any kind of a positive feeling. To what purpose I wonder, the polling outfits have to reflect reality of have egg on their face. That is why traditionally polls tend to converge a few weeks before the election. What if they are not worried.

Biggest fear I have is the election is going to be fixed with a lot of ballot stuffing and or electronic fixing of the vote tallies. I hope Trump fights that and if it means /long drawn out court case/civil war, so be it. The current government is so corrupt that almost anything would be better than to return Hillary and Co. to power. If they try a vote stuffing to change the election and succeed, they will never give up power again. We will be like Mexico under PRI

Blogger James Dixon October 19, 2016 2:13 PM  

> Given current odds, if it could be done I would put some money down on Trump.

https://www.predictit.org/

Blogger Conan the Cimmerian October 19, 2016 2:17 PM  

@37 The traitorous GOP power brokers. If Trump loses, these assholes need to be shredded mercilessly.

This^

@46 I think you are on to it.

A lot of the internals on the polls show Dems @ +8 to +10 with independents and republicans down. Does anyone believe that to he really true? of course not.

Blogger Mountain Man October 19, 2016 2:19 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Sheila4g October 19, 2016 2:20 PM  

I remember the polls and the press's shock when Reagan won, but I also recognize the immensity of what Trump's trying to tackle. My Texas vote isn't going to change anything, but I'm willing to go out there and cast it anyhow. And pray. And read here and at all the Alt Right sites. And go to the range. And then pray some more.

Blogger Alexander October 19, 2016 2:21 PM  

@50

A popular/electoral split in this election - either way - will be seen as a significant blow for the existing system.

In a 4G mindframe, that favors us. Not the best outcome, but not necessarily a bad one.

Blogger Mountain Man October 19, 2016 2:21 PM  

I havent voted in 12 years..just signed up to do so today.
Trump at the top and NO I will will not be doing GOPe straight line voting.
Fuck you Rethuglican Party !
Our incumbent senator is a disgusting, gutless cuckette - who deserves to lose.
Think of how many other millions are also awakening from their slumber this year and finding it worth their while to finally drag their ass to the polling place and then voting this way.
There is a Trumpslide coming and it will probably take out a number of conserva-cucks with it.
Hallelujah Harambe

Blogger MC227 October 19, 2016 2:23 PM  

I wish I was so certain of the outcome. We have the huge demographic change here plus the retarded women that vote lefty because they are emotional train wrecks but all the brainwashing by the media and schools the last 40 years. It should not even be close. She is a career criminal that nobody likes including her side, she wants to raise taxes and bring in millions of wild animals

Blogger Mountain Man October 19, 2016 2:24 PM  

I wonder how many occult sacrifices of kittens Soros has been doing recently- hoping against hope - to achieve a favorable outcome for the Witch.

Blogger Alexander October 19, 2016 2:25 PM  

Re: Polls

My biggest concern is not that the polls are being 'fixed' to dampen turnout (which I think is ultimately counterproductive and keeps more complacent 'winners' at home than despairing 'losers') but that this is all preparing the normies to accept massive-scale voter fraud as obviously legitimate, because Hillary was always winning, and winning by significant amounts.

Once you're committed to the steal, you stop worrying about what the actual voters think, anymore than you care about which way your coffee mug might vote.

Anonymous dagwood October 19, 2016 2:26 PM  

Let's assume for a moment the rather iffy proposition that the polls are true.

If that's so, then what would account for a double-digit shift in such a short time span? I have a hard time believing it's Pussygate. I tend to believe it's something more subconscious, like a creeping suspicion that at the end of the day, Trump is an interesting charismatic guy but he's not a statesman really. Buyer's remorse ahead of the purchase, if you like. But then I'm rather suspicious about the polls anyway.

btw, anyone have any guesses what will happen with the Gary Johnson / Jill Stein voters? Will they really vote for those two, or are they just huffing and puffing and in the end they'll go for the two legit candidates? And if so, who?



Blogger Mountain Man October 19, 2016 2:30 PM  

@5
Rush Limbaugh is such a fuckin tool. He's such an empty vacuous windbag, who has made a killing off the illusion of choices that we've been presented with over these last 50 years. He's a human version of a 20 year old senile cocker spaniel. They'll just sit there barking incessantly at ...nothing.
Im so tired of fags like him.

Anonymous Bart October 19, 2016 2:30 PM  

Finally, NY Magazine admits to the conspiracy!

"Twenty days before the ballots are tallied, Hillary Clinton’s cabal of international bankers, Mexican billionaires, failing newspapers, and “victims of sexual assault,” appear to already have this election rigged. At this point, Carlos Slim can probably tell the New Black Panther Party to take Election Day off — this one’s in the bag."

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2016/10/new-polls-show-clinton-is-even-winning-men-and-arizona.html

Blogger dh October 19, 2016 2:35 PM  

f that's so, then what would account for a double-digit shift in such a short time span? I have a hard time believing it's Pussygate.

Really, you have a hard time imagining an audio record of a guy bragging about how you can walk up to women and grab them by the pussy would be damaging to a persons political career?

Honestly, you can drop the mental contortions. Even people who would otherwise vote for Mr. Trump are going to have a problem with it. It's really gross to be caught talking like that.

Blogger John October 19, 2016 2:38 PM  

Regarding yard signs: I deliver pizza on the weekends so I regularly drive through the neighborhoods in our delivery area, about 25 miles square, near Fort Worth. I see a few Trump yard signs scattered around, but I've found exactly one Hillary yard sign, and looking closer I found that it actually reads "Hillary for Prison 2016".

Blogger Orville October 19, 2016 2:39 PM  

eeewww...gross!

Trump is icky. How ever can I vote for him?

Anonymous SugarPi October 19, 2016 2:40 PM  

@61 That's the perspective I'm hearing more and more. I don't think they fear the repercussions from us over the election stolen by helldung. Apparently the military doesn't think enough people are ready to back them in a coup. I hope that's not the case, but...

Anonymous ZhukovG October 19, 2016 2:44 PM  

They won't need to use fraud. They are already concocting a cover story of Russian manipulation in order to declare a Trump victory invalid.

If Trump wins, Hillary challenges the result. The FBI conveniently apprehend some Russian guy who claims to be the FSB mastermind behind Putin's plot to rig the election for Trump. GOPe traitors (or do I repeat myself?) fake disbelief but go along with the Democrats.

Hillary gets the Presidency and casus belli against Russia all at once.

Of course they're not counting on what tens of millions of Trump supporters do. But, considering blowback has never been our establishment's strong point.

Deo Vindice!

Blogger Thucydides October 19, 2016 2:47 PM  

One can only hope.

The real issue is will the actual turnout be greater than the margin of fraud. How many elements are in play to flip the election, from fraudulent registration to the Legacy media to whatever sorts of manipulations are being done to voting machines? Only a massive surge of Trump voters will overcome this enough to make a victory unambiguous.

The only other wild cards which I haven't seen tracked too well is how the third party candidates are doing. Enough votes siphoned off the Garry Johnston and Jill Stein could throw all these predictions out the window.

Anonymous Soros funded troll #66666 October 19, 2016 2:47 PM  

Pay no attention to those illegal betting pools. Just turn on your television and listen to the unbiased news readers reporting on the very accurate polls. Hillary will win, it is inevitable, you should all just resign yourselves to it.

There's no point to resist. Just surrender, we are in total control.
Don't even bother to vote.

Blogger Days of Broken Arrows October 19, 2016 2:49 PM  

To repeat something I wrote last week:

1). I'm not getting how a candidate who is making NO PERSONAL APPEARANCES can win.

2). I don't get how this isn't THE story. Can you imagine Dukakis or Bush not showing up anywhere as an election loomed la-de-dah and the media not reporting that as a store per se?



Blogger Whisker biscuit October 19, 2016 2:54 PM  

Like, um, totally icky!

Grow a pair. Grab a pussy.

Blogger RC October 19, 2016 2:56 PM  

@DH, Yes, talking about grabbing pussy is bad, bad, bad, worse than Hitler. Raping pussy okay, even married pussy. Sticking cigars up intern pussy is okay, cover for that, sweep it under the rug. Got it. Grab the pussy, penetrate the pussy, disease the pussy, the women are merely life support for the pussy. Just don't talk about grabbing the pussy.

Anonymous Brick Hardslab October 19, 2016 2:57 PM  

I see zero enthusiasm for Hillary. There is a metric shit ton of hippies, minorities, and blue collar democrats in my area. Not one Hillary sign, nobody says anything good about her, nobody talks about her at all.

It is either all for or against Trump. He lives in their head rent free. He has all the energy either for or against.

The honest vote will be for Trump. What the democrats do will be something else entirely and might lead to an outcome no one expects.

Anonymous readywatchman October 19, 2016 2:58 PM  

@45

Key difference between 2012 and 2016: the unquantified but very real number of new and have-not-in-20-years voters. Polls can only account for registered and likely voters. How can you poll people you don't know? The big question is how many there are and how entuniastic they are. Based on anecdotal evidence I would guess many and very excited. But that cannot be known until the day comes.

Anonymous ZhukovG October 19, 2016 3:01 PM  

@dh: Normally you would be correct. But this election is strange, to say the least. For most of the United States' Presidential elections there was always the expectation that even if your side lost, there was always a rematch in 4 years.

That expectation is not present this time. Particularly with those who support Donald Trump.

The two sides in this election literally and viscerally hate one another. Each side view the other as members of hostile alien cultures that need to be crushed, if not extirpated.

The War to Prevent Southern Independence was a mere squabble by comparison.

While this is somewhat new to the United States it has happened in other multi-cultural countries before. We are not immune.

Against this backdrop, some locker room talk doesn't even register on the radar.

Blogger Aeoli Pera October 19, 2016 3:01 PM  

A basket of deplorable unpollables.

OpenID aew51183 October 19, 2016 3:04 PM  

@72

We have hidden cam evidence, cross-referenced with wikileaks podesta emails and public whitehouse records, showing "literally hitler" tactics - DNC operatives who report all the way to the POTUS hiring brown-shirts to attack opposition and start violence.

The social media companies bury it, google buries it, Media first blacks it out, then, when forced, simply selectively report only the weakest parts of the vids, the offer themselves as an open mic for DNC talking points that directly conflict with rest of them.

This is vindication of Curtis Yarvin's dark enlightenment blogging in full public view to those who wish to see.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5IuJGHuIkzY
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hDc8PVCvfKs

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VS40ox_2dqc

Blogger Aeoli Pera October 19, 2016 3:04 PM  

Hillary's people thought Pussygate would matter in Fishtown because it polled well in Belmont. One of the revelations of this cycle is that we (the right) have been mistaking their malice and perseverance for intelligence and cunning.

Anonymous wEz October 19, 2016 3:04 PM  

Dh, I agree with you most of the time, but come on, it was a private conversation with another guy over a decade ago. Within that context, and how we all talk in the confines of private buddy talk, it is simply pc leftist bullshit.
Its amazing, Bill gets head in the Oval Office by some secretary slut and the dems vouch for him even though anyone would lose their job under similar work circumstances. The only people this affect is some emotional women. For guys it's either political posturing, or who gives a fuck?

Blogger MDN October 19, 2016 3:06 PM  

For what its worth, I live in southern, central PA and there are Trump signs absolutely everywhere. I'd estimate the ratio of Trump to Hillary signs/shirts/hats I've seen to be 100:1 and that's probably being generous to her. There are definitely more Hillary for prison signs than actual Hillary for president ones.

Also, my wife and I recently moved here from NY and we will both be voting for Trump in PA after not voting in the 2012 election.

Blogger Orville October 19, 2016 3:07 PM  

Finger licking good dh!

Anonymous johnc October 19, 2016 3:09 PM  

@61

That's exactly what's going on. Trump isn't honking the "rigged election" horn because he's bored and needs something to talk about. He knows what's up behind the scenes.

These elections -- local, state, federal -- have been rigged for years. Some of it is outright fraud, but some of it is coordination between the two parties (like Chris Christie's re-election, or Romney in 2012).

If Hillary wins, that won't necessarily mean she got the most votes. She might not have been anywhere near Trump. This is the reality of our "democracy".

Blogger Derrick Bonsell October 19, 2016 3:11 PM  

Counting signs and rally attendance are all anecdotal. There is no evidence that a conspiracy rigged the polls and the election. There is no evidence that there is a monster vote. There is simply no evidence that the polls are in any way wrong.

Trump isn't spending money, he isn't running ads, noting. He's losing in the polls because Clinton and her supporters control the election narratives and Trump isn't effectively pushing back.

We can all dream that the polls are dramatically under polling Trump supporters but all evidence shows that the polls are pretty damn accurate.

Blogger VFM #7634 October 19, 2016 3:11 PM  

@69 ZhukovG
Not sure how Hillary and the media could manage that, given how the media has been swearing up and down that the election cannot possibly be rigged and if you think so you must be some kinda conspiracy theorist.

It is either all for or against Trump. He lives in their head rent free. He has all the energy either for or against.

@75 Brick Hardslab
In addition to which, if Crackbook is any indication, a lot of the anti-Trumpers are voting for Gary Johnson, not Hillary. Even Jill Stein seems to get more favorable shout-outs than thecunt.

Blogger Ingot9455 October 19, 2016 3:13 PM  

According to the Enquirer, it looks like Hillary grabbed way more pussy than Trump.

Anonymous johnc October 19, 2016 3:17 PM  

@85 We can all dream that the polls are dramatically under polling Trump supporters but all evidence shows that the polls are pretty damn accurate.

To what "evidence" do you refer, exactly?

Anonymous BigGayKoranBurner October 19, 2016 3:18 PM  

I almost hope the Trump doesn't win and instead focuses on his Trump TV

If TRUMP gets in you can watch Traitors & felons get garroted on live TV. Putin might be a special guest on "Don't Garrote Fewer Felons Than A Faggot" when the Soros clan gets snuffed.

Trump signs attract vandals and negative attention. I'm a huge Trump supporter in a deep red state. I've attended a rally

Being in a castle law state if there was any possibility of shitlibs driving by where I live I would just put a TRUMP sign up while waiting for a bated trap. If you see on national news a man in a rainbow feather boa who shot dead a mad shitlib on his property ;)

Actually, when you think about it, kicking out foreign moochers IN ITSELF restores prosperity. Look at an issue like healthcare

Switzerland has a Somali squatmonster family of 8 leeching around $60,000US Dollars a month, while Germany has a Syrian family with 4 wives 20+ people leaching around $40,000USD a month. Every die verse city in the US has 3rd world people using ambulances as free taxies to go from one part of town to another with a cost that can't be quantified because the ambulances might not be able to respond to citizens who need it( In Fresno 2 3rdworlders took over 1300 rides in one year, it was reported in the paper so I am not breaking HIPAA). Every HIV case that comes in will be eating $30,000-$60,000 worth of AIDS meds alone per year. If we were on a pay as you go system it would take 100+ whites to support each 3rd worlder. All this wasted money but welfare hands out free air conditioners to people who evolved in hot areas, but my one grandmother doesn't want to run the air conditioner my family bought her because she doesn't want to run up the electric bill.

Anonymous Down and Out in... October 19, 2016 3:24 PM  

@dh -- I dunno, I know two quasi-frumpy 70+ little old ladies who were baffled that anybody would get the vapors over Trump's naughty-boy talk. They actually thought it was kind of cute. Their points were: a) all women already know that all men talk like that sometimes, and b) men don't seem to know that women talk like that far worse. They thought it was funny that the Dems would resort to this (these are Dem voters) and they thought it made Hitler look desperate.

Besides, it's all relative. Trump is a boorish loudmouth and a crooked-but-successful businessman who has lots of personal baggage but is talking the absolutely correct game (it's the immigration, stupid). He is up against a career criminal regarding both personal and national-security issues, a traitor, a failure at every single thing she's ever put her hand to with the exception of helping to enable a serial rapist's career, she masterminded a disastrous mini-war which was not only absurd on its face but also observably detrimental to actual American interests, and she blatantly lied to the faces of family members of fallen US servicemen who lost their lives in the course of her insane boondoggle, and also trashed a private citizen's first amendment rights and ruined his life in the process.

Trump would not be my personal first choice, but his key issues certainly are, and nobody else had the guts to touch them. Hitler is not simply a crook, but an insane crook. This election is Pruneface versus the Joker. Nobody much likes looking at Pruneface, but the Joker will kill you and eat you.

Anonymous An Unpollable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents October 19, 2016 3:24 PM  

A basket of deplorable unpollables.

I resemble that remark.

Anonymous Clay October 19, 2016 3:29 PM  

You've been right, more than you've been wrong in your political predictions. You have my admiration.

But, you're wrong on this one.

Blogger lubertdas October 19, 2016 3:32 PM  

In my area, the northern suburbs of Chicago, we have a saying: If you see a political sign for a national Democrat on someone's lawn, you can be assured they work for the local or federal government, usually a teacher.

Blogger Noah B October 19, 2016 3:38 PM  

If US operations in Mosul or Syria suffer a setback comparable to Carter's ill-fated rescue operation in Iran, or some other major event happens in the next couple of weeks, we could see a last minute surge for Trump comparable to happened in 1980.

Blogger dh October 19, 2016 3:39 PM  

Dh, I agree with you most of the time, but come on, it was a private conversation with another guy over a decade ago. Within that context, and how we all talk in the confines of private buddy talk, it is simply pc leftist bullshit.
Its amazing, Bill gets head in the Oval Office by some secretary slut and the dems vouch for him even though anyone would lose their job under similar work circumstances. The only people this affect is some emotional women. For guys it's either political posturing, or who gives a fuck?


Yes, it only affects emotional women, also known as all women, also known as over 50% of voters.

Depressing Trump turnout is almost effective as getting a vote for Clinton.

Trump and his camp have had this idea that dragging on the stuff about Bill Clinton's past is somehow going to damage Sec. Clinton. It hasn't so far. Doubling down, tripling down, etc is not going to change the dynamic. It's a losing strategy. The people who care about Clinton's husband's sexual history, or his abuse of women are not going to vote for Mr. Trump because former Pres. Clinton is a cad.

You can deny the plain obvious truth and be somehow shocked on election day, or you can just wise up and see whats in front of you. A good chunk of the GOP has backed off Mr. Trump. It's not just leaders, it's everyone. In the aggregate, Mr. Trump is still losing women and now men, his supposed firewall.

Statistically, the race remains amazingly stable.

The drop in the polls for Trump correspond to the 24/7 media attack on him, which stems from the now 2-week old and growing backlash over his audio tape talking about grabbing women by the pussy.

Blogger dh October 19, 2016 3:44 PM  

Against this backdrop, some locker room talk doesn't even register on the radar.

And yet it corresponds to a nearly uniform movement in the polls away from Trump.

Anonymous Rather, Not October 19, 2016 3:45 PM  

One anecdote from a Philly 'burbs swing county. Very few yard signs at all. My daily commute had 2 Trump signs, and one Clinton signs.

Interestingly, one of the Trump signs went up one day several weeks ago, and the very next day the next door neighbor put up the only Clinton sign. Yesterday, that Clinton sign has come down, replaced by a sign for the Democrat running for the House.

Anonymous BGKB October 19, 2016 3:47 PM  

Even people who would otherwise vote for Mr. Trump are going to have a problem with it. It's really gross to be caught talking like that.

Crooked Eye Clinton called the idealists in her own party "a bucket of losers"

Really, you have a hard time imagining an audio record of a guy bragging about how you can walk up to women and grab them by the pussy

No you can't, millionaire can to the gold digging hoes that follow them. Even I make Clinton Hooker jokes in STR8 locker rooms to fit in. Have you ever heard skanks talking bad about the best men they can find( their boyfriends/husbands)? One time a guy came up to a place I was staff and said "Hi I am Bonnie's husband" I couldn't help myself I said "I am so sorry for you" poor thing must have woken up next to her with a hangover + wedding ring on & is too afraid he will go to hell if he leaves her.

Blogger Alexander October 19, 2016 3:48 PM  

@65

In a sane world, I'd completely agree.

But when the alternative is The Rapist's Wife, and when we live in a society where men are praised for collaring one another and calling in Pride, and women are encouraged to run around naked to reclaim the word Slut... then I have a hard time accepting that the tape would be detrimental.

Add in the fact that all the "ID laws are raciss" have no problems using them internally, and you know they know exactly what is going on.

Hell, I'm certain the giant push for "popular vote" laws to get around the Electoral College is so that they can commit massive fraud in owned states like California and have that vote spillover the rest of the country. As it is now they have to steal each state separately.

Blogger Whisker biscuit October 19, 2016 3:48 PM  

Are the polls manipulated at all?

The fact that this cunt has done so much devious shit that it would make Nixon blush, and you still support her, doesn't say anything about Trump. It speaks to how ingrained the progressive ideaology is in its sheep that they'd disregard it to have power.

Anonymous dagwood October 19, 2016 3:49 PM  

I never saw the original Trump remarks (this election, shudder, I just can't bear to watch), but I would assume what he meant was "grab some pussy" in the same way one "grabs" an opportunity. Or did he really mean physically grabbing? I've never heard of anyone saying such a thing idiomatically, let alone actually doing it.

Anonymous Ironsides October 19, 2016 3:50 PM  

On the routes I take, there are three Trump signs and one yard with Clinton signs -- though the Clinton sign yard has about 20 of them packed into a tiny space of grass out front.

One of the Trump signs was smashed flat about a day after it went up -- I suppose it could have been wind, though, since this is a very white and very polite area. However, the owner put it back upright; it's standing crinkled but unbowed there at the moment, facing across the street towards the place with the 20 Clinton signs.

Anonymous johnc October 19, 2016 3:53 PM  

@96 And yet it corresponds to a nearly uniform movement in the polls away from Trump.

CNN was reporting the other day that it had no effect on Trump's numbers.

And the polls don't seem any different than what they were weeks ago.

Blogger RobertT October 19, 2016 3:54 PM  

twitter is preventing me from linking to your blog. pretty desperate

Anonymous BGKB October 19, 2016 3:55 PM  

For those of you putting up TRUMP signs in enemy territory might I suggest caltrops? Buy a strong magnet to sweep them up after the election. You can make them yourself cheaply with wire cutters and grid type metal fencing

Blogger Lovekraft October 19, 2016 3:55 PM  

If white males are in the crosshairs now, we are likely going to be using language quite different from polls, parties and media in a few years.

More like survival, avoiding lynchmobs, clandestine meet-ups.

OpenID aew51183 October 19, 2016 3:57 PM  

@94

Like a video of democratic operatives gloating over coordinating mob violence in the streets, and the people in that video tied to wikileaks, the protests, and the POTUS?

http://dailycaller.com/2016/10/18/exposed-dem-operative-who-oversaw-trump-rally-agitators-visited-white-house-342-times/#ixzz4NYWeNY7o

The media is blacking it out, but as long as Trump can beat on this in the 3rd debate and force it into the open we should see this happen.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash October 19, 2016 4:01 PM  

Mountain Man wrote:I wonder how many occult sacrifices of kittens Soros has been doing recently

Kittens. That's cute.
I never thought of you as naive before.

Anonymous Broken Arrow October 19, 2016 4:03 PM  

@96 I don't understand why people don't want to see this. His decline, especially amongst Evangelicals, even more so amongst Evangelical women is significant and is enough to cost him the presidency alone. Hillary is running effective commercials regularly with women of various ages simply quoting Trump.

Now one can complain that the women who get emotional about this are stupid, that Evangelicals are stupid, that voters who vote their emotions are stupid, that everyone isn't fucking Vulcan and brilliant like you is stupid, but guess what? It doesn't matter. They are still making their decisions based upon these things no matter how mad you get.

The NeverTrump crowd has made the same mistake, and in doing so has pissed off so much of the GOP base that come 2020 the GOP candidate is already set up to lose. Why? Because they told the Deplorables they are stupid racists who don't understand the GOP grand strategy and things would be better if they died off. It doesn't matter if they are stupid or not, you don't call your own base stupid and hope to win anything.

Want to win elections? Deal with people as you are, not as you wish them to be. If the electorate is swayed more by emotions than logic, appeal to that, FFS don't tell them they are stupid and they should vote for your guy as a strategy.

Blogger Alexander October 19, 2016 4:04 PM  

For those of you putting up TRUMP signs in enemy territory might I suggest caltrops?

Thread winner.

Blogger ChickenChicken Sweep October 19, 2016 4:08 PM  

strike fear into the hearts of perhaps half of America and large chunks of the world outside of it

Useless, whiny fucks abound. Not news, I know, but their hysteria is almost shocking. One UK student tweeted the Trump will "repeal the 19th and make rape legal". And was dead serious about it. I thought it was harder to get into college in the UK. Guess I was wrong.

Anonymous BGKB October 19, 2016 4:08 PM  

Recent redpanels shows the media's problem. http://redpanels.com/277/
Trump to start Nuke War with Russia & Russia Hacks hILLary to help TRUMP

Blogger Robert What? October 19, 2016 4:12 PM  

Trump is going to need at least 60% of the living and legal votes to overcome the 10% edge Hillary will have from the illegal or dead votes.

Anonymous Ironsides October 19, 2016 4:15 PM  

dagwood wrote:I never saw the original Trump remarks (this election, shudder, I just can't bear to watch), but I would assume what he meant was "grab some pussy" in the same way one "grabs" an opportunity. Or did he really mean physically grabbing? I've never heard of anyone saying such a thing idiomatically, let alone actually doing it.

Here's a full transcript, along with what I believe is some cogent analysis: http://www.amerika.org/politics/dissecting-the-controversial-comments-by-donald-trump/

I personally think that it's rhetorical. "Grab them by the balls and their hearts and minds will follow" is not advice on literally running around grabbing large numbers of guys by the balls. "They've got me by the short hairs" doesn't mean someone is literally twisting one's pubic hairs at the time of the statement. "That ad will really grab them" doesn't mean that a corporeal avatar of the advertisement is going to leap out of the TV and physically grapple the viewers.

Blogger newanubis October 19, 2016 4:34 PM  

This is a repost I thought worthy for the board's consideration:

See The Five Facts That JUST MIGHT Prove Trump Is ACTUALLY Beating Hillary!

Let’s take a look at the facts that the media completely ignores or covers up. Instead, they have been giving Clinton the lead despite the fact that she can’t get anyone to even show up to her rallies.

FACT #1: Trump has nearly three times the amount of followers on Facebook.

Trump: 12,174,358 likes.

Clinton: 4,385,959 likes.

Look what Trump’s live stream videos do when compared to Hillary’s.

Trump Live Stream Post — 21 hours ago: 135,000 likes, 18,167 shares, 1.5 million views

Clinton Live Stream Post — 25 hours ago: 9,000 likes, 0 shares, 121,000 views

That does not look good at all for her!

Fact #2: Trump has 18.6 million Twitter followers.

Hillary Clinton has only 6.1 million.

The best part is that most of Hillary’s are actually fake. According to The Washington Examiner, 41 percent of Hillary’s “followers” are not even real people.

In contrast, The Daily Caller says that Trump’s followers are 90% real with 90% of them having a previous voting record.

Fact #3: Trump averages 160,000 viewers per live stream.

Clinton averages 400 viewers per live stream.

Wow. That is bad. Trump also gets 5,000 percent more eyeballs focused on the screen than Clinton . Yep. She really is that boring to the folks.

Fact #4: Instagram.

Trump has 6.2 million followers.

Clinton has 800,000 followers.

Instagram is a platform with mostly all pictures and not much substance – exactly what Hillary supporters love. And still she does very poorly in this medium.

Fact #5: On Reddit.

Trump: 297,696 subscribers

Clinton: 21,429 subscribers

But on Hillary for Prison: she gets 255,228 subscribers.

Trump has more subscribers than Clinton on every major social media outlet but what is even funnier is that there are nearly 3 times as many people subscribed to “Hillary for Prison” than there are subscribed to the Clinton page.

The best part is that the DNC’s leaked emails from WikiLeaks have proven that Clinton pays people to support her online. Trump supporters on the other hand willingly actually like and follow him on Social media.

Trump actually has the support of the people. He is going to win this election come November no matter what the mainstream media would like you to believe.

Right now, every single patriot needs to share this article with friends and relatives. We need to fight these rigged polls that seem to come out every day. Hillary Clinton has a big bag of tricks and is trying to trick the American public into voting for her. Let’s show America the truth.

Can we share this email with at least 10 friends. We have to fight against the mainstream media and their attempts to steal the election away from Trump.

Blogger jandolin October 19, 2016 4:39 PM  

Newest trick of the dinosaur media. Pretend Hillary has already wond the election. A plethora of news stories with titles "What will happen to the stock market if Donald Trump loses?"" What will happen next if Clinton wins?"

Anonymous rienzi October 19, 2016 4:40 PM  

Is there a poll anywhere that has been shown to over-sample men? High school grads? Whites? Even one single time? I didn't think so.

You would expect, under truly random and honest polling circumstances for this to happen on occasion. Yet it never, ever does.

All of the over sampling in the polls is always favorable to Cankles. Always. Amazing coincidence that.

And dh wonders why we are leery of poll results.

Anonymous Battlefrog October 19, 2016 4:40 PM  

Nassim Taleb confirms that Silver is a mathematically illeterate hack. That's all I need to know.

Blogger Ransom Smith October 19, 2016 4:42 PM  

Nassim is such a based math nerd. I really need to read his books.

Anonymous rienzi October 19, 2016 4:48 PM  

Trump should hold a rally in a cemetery. Don't let any live people in. Just Trump talking to the gravestone. He could pass it off as trying to persuade Hillary voters to change their minds.

Blogger Natalie October 19, 2016 4:50 PM  

DH - Saw a poll floating around twitter or Gab showing that almost all the polling losses for Trump after pussygate came from _men_ not women. Yep, only blue haired harpies and gamma pedestal worshipers care about pussy grabbing.

Heck - most of us non-blue haired females think that (given the right context) the world could use a little more pussy grabbing. Just ask any woman who is ovulating.

It's almost like the story about the guy in the friend zone who cries himself to sleep at night worrying about his "friend" who has a history of enthusiastic shagging drummers. Who cares more that dummer dude a bad boy? Certainly not the girl.

Blogger YIH October 19, 2016 4:55 PM  

Orville wrote:And the signs...I'm not seeing hardly any for either presidential candidate in the KC area. This is not like previous years.
Same here. I've seen ONE Trump sign, plenty of local but not Prez. And Trump's been here, and both in Orlando.
I'm still sticking to ''too close to call, possibly 2000-like shenanigans'' even more so with Trump putting the issue out there himself.

Blogger Natalie October 19, 2016 4:57 PM  

Re Jill Stein - at this point I honestly think she's in it to steal votes from Hillary. She has to know that there are people who will never ever vote for anyone right of center but may vote Hillary if they think she's the only leftist option. Most of her recent tweets (that I've seen) have been pro-Trump. IMO she's essentially endorsing Trump while remaining a left candidate to soak up unenthusiastic hard left Hillary voters.

Anonymous CC October 19, 2016 5:04 PM  

“It’s very, very similar to the Brexit vote. There is a metropolitan media bias that says Trump can’t win, but they can’t vote. In betting terms, this is not a done deal. I see parallels with the Brexit vote at this stage.”

This is what I was telling my friends as well, I've put some money down on Trump and a friend of mine was convinced to do the same because I was so certain.

The Brexit odds looked obviously skewed to me, I had a hunch very large bets were being placed to help influence public opinion the same way as was being done with the polls. On the night of the vote itself the odds jumped to 11/1(!) (+1100) in some places. My guess there was that some insiders in the bookies might have known about some vote-rigging going on which should have delivered victory for the stay side, but in the end they just couldn't defeat the 17 million votes for leave.

Looking at the odds for Trump, it seemed to me to be exactly the same scenario. I even said to my mates, "this is just like the Brexit vote" but both of them didn't agree, they thought it was totally different. I argued that these votes are essentially votes on globalism, with the establishment desperately trying to manipulate and fool the electorate who aren't buying it any more.

It's basically free money.

Blogger Aeoli Pera October 19, 2016 5:05 PM  

Oh oh, I thought of another one:

A vote for Hillary is a vote for 8 more years of Bill raping interns in the white house.

Blogger Aeoli Pera October 19, 2016 5:06 PM  

I should find some agency and get on Gab, this shit is gold.

Blogger Aeoli Pera October 19, 2016 5:07 PM  

Alexander wrote:For those of you putting up TRUMP signs in enemy territory might I suggest caltrops?

Thread winner.


Seconded.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash October 19, 2016 5:07 PM  

I'm pretty sure that Jill Stein sees that the election of Hillary could mean war with Russia. And she's smart enough, and patriotic enough that she's doing what she can to prevent it. Certainly pulling out would only make it worse. Explicitly endorsing Trump would likely send some of her voters over to Hillary.

So, she makes the argument, stopping just shy of saying "Don't vote for me you fools! Vote for Trump if you want to live!" Those who have ears hear. The rest don't vote for Hillary.

So, mad props to Stein. One of the few honorable politicians I've seen this century.

Blogger MeneMene October 19, 2016 5:18 PM  

Christian female for Trump!

I can be deeply disturbed by too much personal info about Hillary, but Trump? Nah.

Anonymous An Unpollable, Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents October 19, 2016 5:28 PM  

@96 dh
And yet it corresponds to a nearly uniform movement in the polls away from Trump.

Could you be so kind as to share which polls you are looking at?

Investors business daily tracking poll shows essentially a tie.

LA Times dashboard shows the same thing.

So does Rasmussen

Now, dh, I have a little question. Are you still on the level?

Or have you decided to spray around a little Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt for whatever reasons?

'Cause right now, you look pretty FUDlike to me.

Anonymous SugarPi October 19, 2016 5:55 PM  

@115 Numbers, just numbers... that's what the shills for helldung would say. You didn't even mention that shedog has to pay warm bodies to attend her events, whereas Trump has to find bigger and bigger venues.
I call it evidence of who is generating more support.
BTW, Drudge is linking to 2 polls showing Trump is up... but, as usual Fox is mum, still declaring Clinton's lead.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan October 19, 2016 6:20 PM  

If Scott Adams is correct about mass illusion and Trump if that illusion is punctured Trump gets preference cascade

Blogger dh October 19, 2016 6:23 PM  

Investors business daily tracking poll shows essentially a tie.
LA Times dashboard shows the same thing.


These are not polls, these are surveys, of the same voters over time. There is a substantial difference. They are useful for looking at movement of opinion within a group, not the state of the race.

So does Rasmussen

Agree. I believe it's an outlier.

This is the general trend of all aggregated national polls since the "Pussygate story". As with all samples, there is noise, but there is also a trend that is clear and undeniable.

http://huff.to/2eielHn


The question was posed: why is there poll movement, what could have caused it?? Well, you have to be blind to miss the fact that the mood has changed even harsher against Trump and the timing lines up to the video being released.

Blogger dh October 19, 2016 6:30 PM  

DH - Saw a poll floating around twitter or Gab showing that almost all the polling losses for Trump after pussygate came from _men_ not women. Yep, only blue haired harpies and gamma pedestal worshipers care about pussy grabbing.

This makes sense; Trump's support among women has already bottomed out of anyone who was on the fence. Now it's simply up to persuadable men. All of the men who are firm in their support are staying, but the fence sitters are starting to turn. This usually happens as you get closer to the election regardless of outside factors. The regular voters who will end up voting start to stop vacillating and start picking sides.

This, by the way, is something that veteran politicians know, but new ones don't. Whereas Trump is out there doing more red meat, about Bill Clinton, Clinton is out there targeting very small groups of undecided voters, like white men, and doing what she can to convince them that's she not the end of the world. The firmly against will still be against, but she makes small inroads against the ones that are still on the edge.

Blogger Teri October 19, 2016 6:32 PM  

I have high school friends still in CA. The family seems to have been hard core Bernie during the primary. I have been getting hard core pro Trump stuff from the younger son. I think there are more than a few Bernie supporters that will be voting Trump.

Blogger Teri October 19, 2016 6:35 PM  

CBS today made a big point about Trump only going to towns in CO where he had a lot of supporters. No mention that Hillary doesn't go anywhere.

Blogger dh October 19, 2016 6:39 PM  

rienzi-

You are leery of poll results because you are an idiot, that's all. You don't understand the methods of polling.

The sample of voters is drawn randomly, but the "cross tabs", that is, the exact demographic mix, is usually published by the pollster in their detailed report. So for example, Qunnipiac College has a poll out today showing Clinton +7 in a 4-way race as the top line. But in the report, here: https://www.qu.edu/images/polling/us/us10192016_U29frgv.pdf, you can see starting on page 3, the cross tabs.

Selecting the cross tabs and applying correctional measures against them to correct over or under-sampling is based on past electoral results - the percentage of people in each demographic category that have historically turned out.

All the same idiots who are saying the polls are almost all rigged this time around said the same thing in 2012, much to their ultimate beclownment.

If you don't like the demographic mix of the polls, and you think it will be something else, knock yourself out, go unskew it.

But think carefully. Trump is only above 50% in a single demographic in the latest batch of polls: white men, and only by a 55-45 margin. That's it. Every other demographic he is under 50%, and most distantly behind Clinton.

If you somehow think that you can win the Presidency in the United States without winning any demographic convincingly, you are just wrong.

OpenID aew51183 October 19, 2016 6:46 PM  

@137

>that poll with 35% more democrats than republicans from arizona is real
>the polls that predicted remain+8 were real

thanks for the chuckle.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents October 19, 2016 7:01 PM  

dh
thanks for the reply and pointer.

Blogger Mountain Man October 19, 2016 7:04 PM  

@101
Good gosh, have you spent your entire life in a monastery.? Are you really that sheltered?
Honestly, if you ever played sports you will have heard that and a lot worse in a locker room.

Anonymous dagwood October 19, 2016 7:22 PM  

Ice hockey, my friend.

So, I'unno, maybe they said it in French.

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents October 19, 2016 7:42 PM  

dh
Selecting the cross tabs and applying correctional measures against them to correct over or under-sampling is based on past electoral results - the percentage of people in each demographic category that have historically turned out.

So you're asserting that the turnout in 2008 and 2012 will be duplicated in 2016 in all demographics?

Anonymous Battlefrog October 19, 2016 7:42 PM  

@134 This, by the way, is something that veteran politicians know, but new ones don't. Whereas Trump is out there doing more red meat, about Bill Clinton, Clinton is out there targeting very small groups of undecided voters, like white men, and doing what she can to convince them that's she not the end of the world. The firmly against will still be against, but she makes small inroads against the ones that are still on the edge.

This is exactly the kind of thinking that helps Republicans consistently lose elections.

#DrainTheSwamp is not red meat. It is top notch persuasion. This is the kind of thing that will reach on the fence voters, not luke warm pandering. It is simple and understandable. And as Scott Adams points out, you can see it and smell it.

But without an energized following, barely anyone is going to try and convince family and peers to vote for their candidate. So some of that is necessary. That is what "because you'd be in jail" was for. The degree to which Trump's supporters are trying to persuade others is something a McCain or Romney could only dream of.

Anonymous rienzi October 19, 2016 8:12 PM  

dh.:"rienzi-

You are leery of poll results because you are an idiot, that's all. You don't understand the methods of polling."

As a general rule I don't like to get into flame wars, as usually nothing is achieved.
Nevertheless, we all know you as a long-time SJW troll, and we all know what SJW's always do.

On election day 2004, as I left my polling place in the afternoon to drive home, I turned on the radio in my car to hear that "scientific" exit polling had Kerry way ahead, and that Bush was finished. Slam dunk for Kerry.

I must be coming down with Alzheimer's because I've totally forgotten everything that happened in President Kerry's administration.

Heard the same thing about the Brexit vote right up until the actual votes were counted. How'd that work out every single one of the "scientific" polls?



Anonymous Bobby Farr October 19, 2016 8:16 PM  

Add Mormons to the list of the traitorous. Evan McMullin leads there in the latest poll

Blogger James Dixon October 19, 2016 8:51 PM  

> You are leery of poll results because you are an idiot, that's all.

Dh, remember that some of us have experience with polls going back a lot farther than yours. Then remember that almost all the polls are paid for by the mass media, who are avidly anti-Trump. Then remember that they know this is the last election that will matter. They don't care if they're exposed as wrong at the end or not, as long as their candidate wins.

I still don't know who will win, but it's obvious the polls are almost entirely a propaganda tool for the media. Any resemblance they bear to reality is purely accidental.

Anonymous Deplorable S E Delenda October 19, 2016 10:16 PM  

"Add Mormons to the list of the traitorous. Evan McMullin leads there in the latest poll"

I wonder if his quixotic candidacy was contrived by the guy who made a hysterical fool of himself in an attempt to stop Mr. Trump:

Bishop Willard Romney.

Blogger dfordoom October 19, 2016 11:11 PM  

29. Badger Brigadon

There is likely to be violence, but it may not be on a civil war scale...

The globalists/SJWs will be hoping for low-level violence. Just enough to justify a massive crackdown on dissent and a round-up of deplorables. In fact they'll be praying for a certain level of violence. They'll also be praying for alt-righters to keep talking about Civil War 2.0. They'll finally be able to do something about that pesky First Amendment.

Anonymous wEz October 20, 2016 12:29 AM  

You do realize I've agreed with you on this blog all along regarding Hillary's pending victory right? It doesn't change anything. Women have had their mind made up long ago who they're voting for. This changes very, very, little. Anyone with commonsense sees this nonsense for what it is.

Anonymous SciVo October 20, 2016 2:44 AM  

dh wrote:But think carefully. Trump is only above 50% in a single demographic in the latest batch of polls: white men, and only by a 55-45 margin. That's it. Every other demographic he is under 50%, and most distantly behind Clinton.

You know damn well that there are white male Democrats, so you appear to be using sophistry to avoid addressing the elephant in the room.

Anonymous Pennywise October 20, 2016 7:56 AM  

Sugar Pi...I remember the Reagan landslide... the comments afterwards were, "how did the polls not pick up on this?" Answer: because they're rigged, duh!""

Immediately after the conclusion of the 1980 primaries, a Gallup poll showed Reagan was ahead, with 58% of voters upset with the Carter Administration.

After trailing Carter by 8 points among registered voters (and by 3 points among likely voters) right before their debate, Reagan moved into a 3-point lead among likely voters immediately afterward and never looked back.

Regardless, Trump has an uphill climb. Rather doubtful he is going to win. At least he can grab all the pussy he wants afterward, because that's the way of Christian men.

Blogger Robert What? October 20, 2016 8:00 AM  

Heh!

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