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Friday, October 07, 2016

The Russian stance

The Saker considers Russia's options in Syria:
The key thing to understand in the Russian stance in this, and other, recent conflicts with the USA is that Russia is still much weaker than the USA and that she therefore does not want war. That does not, however, mean that she is not actively preparing for war. In fact, she very much and actively does. All this means is that should a conflict occur, Russia you try, as best can be, to keep it as limited as possible.

In theory, these are, very roughly, the possible levels of confrontation:

1) A military standoff à la Berlin in 1961. One could argue that this is what is already taking place right now, albeit in a more long-distance and less visible way.

2) A single military incident, such as what happened recently when Turkey shot down a Russian SU-24 and Russia chose not to retaliate.

3) A series of localized clashes similar to what is currently happening between India and Pakistan.

4) A conflict limited to the Syrian theater of war (say like the war between the UK and Argentina over the Malvinas Islands)

5) A regional or global military confrontation between the USA and Russia

6) A full scale thermonuclear war between the USA and Russia

During my years as a student of military strategy I have participated in many exercises on escalation and de-escalation and I can attest that while it is very easy to come up with escalatory scenarios, I have yet to see a credible scenario for de-escalation. What is possible, however, is the so-called “horizontal escalation” or “asymmetrical escalation” in which one side choses not to up the ante or directly escalate, but instead choses a different target for retaliation, not necessarily a more valuable one, just a different one on the same level of conceptual importance (in the USA Joshua M. Epstein and Spencer D. Bakich did most of the groundbreaking work on this topic).

The main reason why we can expect the Kremlin to try to find asymmetrical options to respond to a US attack is that in the Syrian context Russia is hopelessly outgunned by the US/NATO, at least in quantitative terms. The logical solutions for the Russians is to use their qualitative advantage or to seek “horizontal targets” as possible retaliatory options. This week, something very interesting and highly uncharacteristic happened: Major General Igor Konashenkov, the Chief of the Directorate of Media service and Information of the Ministry of Defence of the Russian Federation, openly mentioned one such option. Here is what he said:

“As for Kirby’s threats about possible Russian aircraft losses and the sending of Russian servicemen back to Russia in body bags, I would say that we know exactly where and how many “unofficial specialists” operate in Syria and in the Aleppo province and we know that they are involved in the operational planning and that they supervise the operations of the militants. 
Translation: shoot down our planes and bomb our troops and we and our allies go after your "military advisors".

There isn't any doubt that the USA can beat Russia in Syria. The question is if they are willing to pay the price both there, and potentially, in Ukraine and the Baltics.

That this is all absolutely stupid and utterly unnecessary doesn't mean it won't happen. In the meantime, we should really all focus on what is truly important: did you know that Donald Trump was once ungallant in speaking about women?

Anyhow, I had been extremely skeptical about the reports that Russian missiles had taken out a command center of US and Israeli advisers, but the sudden increase in US bellicosity makes me wonder if there might have actually been some substance to it.

Labels:

100 Comments:

Anonymous We are on the verge October 07, 2016 9:15 PM  

I still am stunned that we are on the verge of war with Russia, and for what? What purpose does this serve? How is such a way in our national interest? I guess certain ((((people)))) would nuke the world if it meant that it would line their pockets and give them a few more days in power... I pray for the Trumpslide, but the polls are disconcerting, to say the least.

Anonymous Clay October 07, 2016 9:18 PM  

Well. I sorta tried to say this, but nowhere near as eloquently, a week or two ago.

Quit messing with Syria. They are the turd of the Middle East.

Blogger bearspaw October 07, 2016 9:21 PM  

It would be extremely interesting to arrange a dialogue/debate/ bull session between van Crevelt, Saker and Lind on the present topic.

Anonymous A Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents October 07, 2016 9:24 PM  

@1
The globalists are counting on 'Merican patriotism to close ranks and stand together and re-elect the Clintons.

The model is maybe Viet Nam in 1964 or the Maine in Havana harbor or something like that.

They forget that in the 90's when the Clintons wanted to put a lot of troops on the ground in the disintegrating Jugoslavia, and they went out to Ohio to give a big rah-rah-war rally, a lot of genuine VFW types showed up and roasted the administration. The tl;dr on that was "We are vets, we don't trust you people, we don't support you".

The Clintons were limited to bombing and some small forces to police up after the Serbs knuckled under.

That was then. Those vets were Viet Nam and some Korea and a few WWII and Gulf War I. Now we have a lot of vets who went to Iraq or Afghanistan.

I seriously doubt anyone who helped take Fallujah only to see it handed back to the Jihad is going to be supportive of a war with Russia over Syria. Just don't see it.

So the whole "stand together" premise is a fail, because the globalists simply don't know anyone outside their bubble, they are operating from a cartoon mentality regarding us "little people".

It's all fantasy. Going to war over fantasy, over domestic wag-the-dog politics, is close to treason.

Anonymous #8601 October 07, 2016 9:26 PM  

Putin probably grabs women by the p, too.

Anonymous Deplorable Psychedelic Cat Hair October 07, 2016 9:27 PM  

In grad school, one of the things we scenarioed (it wasn't wargamed) was strike packages for nuclear counterforce. A major problem that was always explicitly stated: how do you climb down the ladder of deescalation? Don't get me wrong, I don't care for Putin and by extension the GOR or its military as they fall under him. Having said that, what's the point of us saber rattling in Syria? I say this as a master's degree holder studying this very stuff. It makes no logical sense. Then again, it's Obama. Go figure.

Anonymous Poop Pants October 07, 2016 9:35 PM  

I was in Fallujah in 04. I would rather take Washington D.C. than venture there again, just to see it handed back. However, as Fred Reed once said, "Overweight people who drive Volvos do not become urban guerillas."

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY October 07, 2016 9:35 PM  

"Quit messing with Syria. They are the turd of the Middle East."
Damn straight, my brother.

Blogger Stilicho October 07, 2016 9:39 PM  

Meanwhile, the ChiComs are laughing their asses off as their two biggest enemies are squaring off.

Blogger sykes.1 October 07, 2016 9:40 PM  

Don't forget Afghanistan or Turkey. Giving the Taliban or Kurds MANPADs and TOWs would sift the balance decively against the US And Turks.

Blogger Basil Makedon October 07, 2016 9:47 PM  

For the left, 2016 is the end-game. They really believe that if they win now, they will win forever and ever. (Of course, that isn't true, there is never a permanent victory). Anyway, if they need to pick a fight with Russia to win 2016 they will. If they need to destroy the FBI to win 2016 they will. If they need to crash the economy again to win 2016 they will. If they need to commit massive voter fraud, naturalize aliens at a record pace, whatever it takes.

Blogger dienw October 07, 2016 9:47 PM  

Why are we looking at this through (((NeoCon))) glasses: we are the ones provoking Russia; we are the ones desiring war; we are the ones giving cover to the oligarchs to loot Russia and to genocide Americans. By weighing strengths and weaknesses as Saker is doing is to allow ourselves to be talked into WWIII.

Anonymous Gen. Kong October 07, 2016 10:02 PM  

The whole fact that something this completely batshit insane is even happening should serve to reveal (((who))) is calling the shots. After twin fiascos with Curious Jorge's Misunderestimated Mesopotamian Misadventure and the Nobel Peece-Prize recipient Housenigga Hussein's glorious mission to make the plump poppyfields of Pashtoonistan safe for feminism, sodomy and the Murikan way, one would have though that the (((Neo-Conmen))) would have zero credibility or influence. Yet here we are about to get into a war with Russia.

Blogger pyrrhus October 07, 2016 10:14 PM  

I think there is doubt about American capabilities in Syria....http://weaponsman.com/?p=35582

Blogger pyrrhus October 07, 2016 10:16 PM  

@12 Exactly. This whole war was started by the State Dept, and continued by arming ISIS and Al Nusra, and God knows who else.....Because Qatar wants a pipeline, and Obama loves Jihadists.

Blogger icr October 07, 2016 10:18 PM  

Hillary has been a big supporter of the proxy war against Assad since it began in 2012. She's been calling for a no-fly zone in Syria (i.e., war with Russia) since last year. Hope Trump brings all this up.

Blogger Lazarus October 07, 2016 10:18 PM  

From the article

Are the Americans crazy enough to risk WWIII to maintain their status as the “world’s indispensable nation”, the “leader of the free world”, the “city on the hill” and all the rest of this imperialistic nonsense?

USA! USA! USA! USA!

Blogger Ezekiel October 07, 2016 10:24 PM  

If we can't make all of America great again, we can still make part of it great again.

I've been telling a friend that, if President Clinton (shudder) opts for war with Russia, then Alabama should opt for entry into the Commonwealth of Independent States. He's all for it, and my friend just happens to be an elected politician.

Blogger Mighty Lou October 07, 2016 10:28 PM  

There are many non-negotiable terms in the U.S. Constitution that make joining any sort of world government problematic. I think that the various trade deals are a sort of a way around the problems posed in the constitution and so are the more recent climate change programs and partnerships, which is the real reason why climate change or global warming is being viciously promoted every where. It's an open door to global government policies.

However, there are those who would like things to move faster. Germany during the first two World Wars is a good example of what can happen to the U.S.

Imagine a corrupt government that leads the U.S. into unjust war and commits various war crimes and human rights violations. Those same corrupt leaders who led the U.S. into war will orchestrate the defeat of the U.S. as well. Once defeated, the U.S. will be at the whim of the U.N. or other world courts. Once all is said and done the U.S. will be sanctioned out of existence, and the constitution will be null and void. In its place a new nation will be designed according to a new world constitution.

Pretty crazy to think about.

Anonymous Grabby McGrab October 07, 2016 10:35 PM  

>>did you know that Donald Trump was once ungallant in speaking about women?


Ungallant? Well, my word! That's all fiddlesticks, Vox, all Goodman Trump said is what every Christian man, were he to look deep inside his heart, would already recognize as the deepest, most unassailable truth concerningthe daughters of Eve -- THAT WE SHOULD GRAB THEM BY THE PUSSY!!!!

Blogger Lazarus October 07, 2016 10:37 PM  

Ezekiel wrote:If we can't make all of America great again, we can still make part of it great again.

I've been telling a friend that, if President Clinton (shudder) opts for war with Russia, then Alabama should opt for entry into the Commonwealth of Independent States. He's all for it, and my friend just happens to be an elected politician.



You might have an easier time joining the Commonwealth of Nations, British Commonwealth). One of the requirements is The foremost of the Edinburgh criteria requires new members to have either constitutional or administrative ties to at least one current member of the Commonwealth of Nations. Traditionally, new Commonwealth members had ties to the United Kingdom.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Nations_membership_criteria


Any part of the US qualifies. You could get visits from the Royal Family. Plebeians dig that shit.

Anonymous Clay October 07, 2016 10:41 PM  

I think "Saker's" prognosis to be subjective.

I can't profess to discount his military prowess to be incorrect, but I disagree, in most part. Especially a nuke war.

Nuke subs.

Blogger ZhukovG October 07, 2016 10:41 PM  

In 1914 the European nations seemed to wander aimlessly into a war the likes of which they couldn't imagine.

By contrast we have broken into dads liquor cabinet, stolen the car keys and are now driving wildly down the wrong side of the freeway.

I believe 'they' are certain Russia won't use nukes and they may be right. But, it's still sheer madness.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan October 07, 2016 10:54 PM  

The horizontal is Saudi Arabia somehow,

Blogger Lazarus October 07, 2016 11:00 PM  

from the article:

The biggest danger here is that the Neocons might try to rally the nation around the flag, either by staging yet another false flag or by triggering a real international crisis.

I think that ship has sailed. As Dubya famously said, "fool me once, shame on you, fool me twice....well , I won't be fooled again!"

Friggin' genius.

Anonymous Mr. Rational October 07, 2016 11:11 PM  

Stilicho wrote:the ChiComs are laughing their asses off as their two biggest enemies are squaring off.
And just who was noted for contributing lots to the Clintons?

I'm not sure it's (((them))), (((they))) have too much to lose if the US loses; we won't be there to help with the next crisis, and nobody else gives a damn.  But Beijing seems ideally situated to come out of this the same way the US came out of WWII.

Blogger John Morris October 07, 2016 11:14 PM  

Am I the only one who spotted a 'tell' in number 4? Even the U.N. doesn't do that, it is the "Falklands" in any language except Spanish. They had to make that exception because they ARE the U.N. and have to stick their finger in the eye of the "Colonial Powers" a little bit. We are either dealing with somebody who has deeply imbibed the 3rd world 'oppressed' worldview or a Russian agent.

Lots of those out about now, most are fairly easy to spot if you watch for bit. Constant vigilance.

Blogger The Other Robot October 07, 2016 11:19 PM  

did you know that Donald Trump was once ungallant in speaking about women?

And of course, he is worse than Bill Clinton. Oh, wait a minute. That's not true.

Anonymous DT October 07, 2016 11:20 PM  

In the meantime, we should really all focus on what is truly important: did you know that Donald Trump was once ungallant in speaking about women?

I just had another talk with my neighbor. We discussed politics for a little bit.

I've clearly explained to her the situation in Syria and the potential for war with Russia.

Did you hear what Trump said ten years ago?

Letting women vote was a mistake.

American obsession with trivialities and pop culture is a mistake.

And if America is going to be so shallow and stupid that our mainstream media discusses men talking like men instead of a possible flash point for World War III, then perhaps we deserve to get nuked.

Anonymous Clay October 07, 2016 11:21 PM  

OT...But, what the hell does a "(((?))) comment make?

No criticism...just curious.

Blogger The Other Robot October 07, 2016 11:21 PM  

Am I the only one who spotted a 'tell' in number 4? Even the U.N. doesn't do that, it is the "Falklands" in any language except Spanish.

I sometimes say "The War of Northern Aggression" even though I was not born in the South. Does that make me a Northern agent or something?

Anonymous DT October 07, 2016 11:23 PM  

@23 - By contrast we have broken into dads liquor cabinet, stolen the car keys and are now driving wildly down the wrong side of the freeway.

But at least we're discussing the Kardashians while swerving in and out of oncoming traffic.

Anonymous Daniel H October 07, 2016 11:27 PM  

I recall Lebanon in the mid 1980s when a few rag-head terrorists had their way with us, blowing up a US Marine encampment, killing over 200 Marines, leading us to withdraw and lick our wounds, and don't leave aside the kidnapping and murder of other Americans such as retired Col. William Higgins, who was working for the UN and the President of the American University, Malcolm Kerr. The rag-heads then got too uppity and tried to pull similar acts against Russian operators in Lebanon, kidnapping one of them. The story is the Russians grabbed a sheik affiliated with the terrorists, put a bullet in his head, cut his balls off and put them in his mouth and sent the corpse to the terrorists with a message that they would continue doing this until the diplomat was released. The terrorists released the Russian.

Evil men and women wish to start trouble with Russia for their own personal gain, not because Russia poses any threat to the security or interests of the United States or its people.

Anonymous Godfrey October 07, 2016 11:29 PM  

Interesting how the Globalists are really heating things up before the election. They're committed to their plan for worldwide corporate feudalism run by a crony international fiat banking elite. Any independent nation or people are attacked.

I hope the Asians are watching this. They have an average IQ above a 100 which means their people will be viewed as a threat to the NWO.

Anonymous Ronnie October 07, 2016 11:40 PM  

Obama has long had a grudge against Putin because the Russian leader is not on board with homosexuality and the promotion of it. I'm sure other issues exist, but to a petty man like Obama, it may be his driving force to hinder any advance by Putin.

Blogger Paul October 07, 2016 11:41 PM  

"...did you know that Donald Trump was once ungallant in speaking about women?"

[NFR: It’s sexual assault. — RD]

So, Rod, Trump "assaulting" women using his mouth words would make that, what...cunnilingual battery by proxy?

Blogger Culture War Draftee October 07, 2016 11:49 PM  

I think this is Obama's October Surprise, his parting gift to Killary so her sinking campaign can enter the last refuge of scoundrels.

I don't think Obama wants war with Russia, he just wants it to be on the horizon so the Dems can gin up enough fear to smear Trump with being "soft" on Russia. Of course smarter men than Obama have miscalculated such things.

It may seem far-fetched to think a sitting president would risk war with a major European power just so his party can win an election. I offer two reasons why it is not so improbable.
1) They did it before. Bill Clinton bombed Sudan "coincidentally" on the day Monica Lewinsky's testimony was released. He launched an all-out air assault on Iraq on the day Congress voted on his impeachment. Clinton's servile lackeys yapped far and wide how ghastly it was that Congress could be undermining our commander-in-chief at the very moment he was in harm's way with our brave airmen, etc. etc.
2) Motive. This IS the most important election ever. The Dems know that the H Clinton regime has the opportunity to use weaponized immigration tactics to demolish the white race and with it the white party (the Republicans). This is their kill-shot. They will not let it slip away.
3) Trump scares the hell out of them. He is not establishment (an odd thing for a billionaire real-estate guy, but yeah). They could lose to a Bush or a Rubio or a Kasich, but not Trump. VD has made a good case why Trump scares them so. Now just ask yourself, how far will they go to prevent their fears from becoming real?

Anonymous aegis-1080 October 07, 2016 11:54 PM  

The sad part is, that Dems will sign up on Team Neocon Warmongering as long as is done for Team Clinton to prove that she has a Big Clit that needs no man and stands up to the Russian Patriarchy.

Their lack of principles is just repulsive.

On the (gasp) things that Trump said, if cheap celebrity gossip is their biggest card against Trump now Trump has it on the bag. The Judge Curiel and the Khan things were far harsher hits than this bunch of nothing. Harridans and Nu-Males truly have no idea how normal men talk.

Try "Yeah, so? Bill did worse and Hill covered it up". But of course, is just Republican propaganda that people can percieve the Clinton sociopathy and sheer greed for power.

Anonymous A.B. Prosper October 08, 2016 12:07 AM  

There are 2.9 million Russians in the US, 10% of the entire foreign born population. If there is a war with Russia and 1/10 of 1% of them are agents loyal to Russia you have 29,000 potential sleeper agents, all armed all presumably trained

I don't know about you but that is a significant security threat and those agents could enagage in levels of disruption the US has never seen.

Certainly the US could pull a Roosevelt and round them up or try to, its not 1941 and a lot of people do not trust the US enough Hell for all I know it might be a trigger for all out war or a civil war.

Not a good national security situation at all.

Blogger Ezekiel October 08, 2016 12:10 AM  


You might have an easier time joining the Commonwealth of Nations, British Commonwealth). One of the requirements is The foremost of the Edinburgh criteria requires new members to have either constitutional or administrative ties to at least one current member of the Commonwealth of Nations. Traditionally, new Commonwealth members had ties to the United Kingdom.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Commonwealth_of_Nations_membership_criteria

Any part of the US qualifies. You could get visits from the Royal Family. Plebeians dig that shit.


That could be very interesting, post-Brexit.

The fate of Rhodesia makes me somewhat wary, but then it ain't like the Russians are above throwing their clients under the bus either (Somalia in the Ogaden War).

Anonymous A.B. Prosper October 08, 2016 12:16 AM  

RE: doubt about US capabilities

That's worrying, not that we could lose a war, that might be good for US humility though I'd mourn our dead, not the Neo-Cons might get a bad case of "use it before you lose it"

We can take Russia now but not in 20 years, better do it while you can and after we pull an Iraq on them can rest on our laurels for a while.

Its nuts but our foreign policy has not been sane of late.

Blogger Johnny October 08, 2016 12:17 AM  

Syria is a proxy war between various Middle Eastern nations with us and the Russians drawn into it. But on the side there is a desire to build a pipeline through Syria that would terminally weaken Russia because it would limit their ability to pressure Europe through the withholding of energy.

So what are the Russians thinking? If they remember their history they remember two major invasions from Europe, French and German. They surrendered Eastern Europe only to have the United States push NATO closer even though we said that we would not. Are they going to surrender pipeline access through Syria, or are they going to conclude that a stand sooner is better than later? Offense beats defense by huge margins when it comes to missiles and nukes, and they are a nuclear power. Tactical nuke in country? Attack our air bases? Naval vessels in the area or damn near anywhere if we are at war?

We should not be messing with this.

Anonymous Here kitty kitty October 08, 2016 12:19 AM  

>If there is a war with Russia and 1/10 of 1% of them are agents loyal to Russia you have 29,000 potential sleeper agents, all armed all presumably trained

Yup, 29,000 people -- all ready to TAKE US BY THE PUSSY!!!

OpenID peppermintfrosted October 08, 2016 12:33 AM  

The US can win against Russia in Syria? The US can't win against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Kerry just asked the Taliban to make an honorable peace with the US puppet government.

If present trends continue, in ten years, the US won't even have the capability to resist a Russian invasion of the US, and I for one will welcome our new Russian overlords even if they make me go to church in their slave camps.

Anonymous meh October 08, 2016 12:40 AM  

"OT...But, what the hell does a "(((?))) comment make?

No criticism...just curious."


It indicates a name that (((echoes))); it is a meme from TheRightStuff.biz podcast The Daily Shoah.

You should be able to connect the dots yourself at this point; don't make me explain it any further than that.

Anonymous Helton Strom October 08, 2016 12:44 AM  

@6 - Why are they doing this stupid shit? If I had to guess, I can come up with four possibilities:

1) They really are this cluseless. I mean, I know the administration is, but I mean his military pros giving advise from the pentagon. I'd like to think they are not, but given 7 years of purges, it's possible. (think: red pumps on ROTC cadets)

2) It's precisely because it is stupid shit. That is, they have no regard for blow-back, and they think that random military mucking about will make them look tough, and who cares if a few camel-jockeys die? They are large and in charge, and they figure that nobody cares about the ME, so they get to drone people and blame the opposition.

3) They are *trying* to provoke a crisis so they can take advantage of it. (re: "refugees")

4) It's a convenient distraction for something else. What other stories are not getting eyeballs? China/Senkaku islands? China/Taiwan? Russian far east? Some other part of Africa? Some domestic scandal (to many possibilities there to list)? International banking collapse? What's it covering for?

None exactly give me the warm fuzzies.

Blogger residentMoron October 08, 2016 1:02 AM  

I think a lot of this discussion misses the point because it's based on certain assumptions about the people making decisions about war.

The first of these assumptions is that these people are normal politicians, much like any other. This is an error. These people are evil in ways most of us, never having had access to such power, simply don't understand.

The second of these assumptions is that these people are going about the normal business of politicians. This is an error. They're embarked on a programme of global hegemony and they will force their targets to pay any cost, to achieve that condition.

The third of these assumptions builds on the previous teo, and is that these people can be reasoned with. This is an error. Dissent is not permitted. Disobedience is not permitted.

These things are tolerated only to fhe extent that there is no profitable means to punish them. In this context, profit is not merely financial but also political and positional.

Chaos is the preferred tactic for bringing additional territory under control. In the West, economic and more recently, cultural, chaos. In the East, cultural and political chaos.

It's not a coincidence that the tactics of the SJWs are those of our would-be overlords, since SJWs are one of their cultural tools of suppressing dissent.

The idiocy of the "reasons" given for any uproar, the faux outrage, the relentless propaganda (even as the idiocy is undeniable), the setting up of amenable authorities, the high-sounding ideals of those authorities, and the simultaneous corruption of their actual policies.

Anonymous DT October 08, 2016 1:02 AM  

@43 - If present trends continue, in ten years, the US won't even have the capability to resist a Russian invasion of the US,

Given present trends in 10 years there won't be a US. Just 50 sovereign states...and 50 separate currencies...where there was once a single central government with trillions in debt that could never be repaid.

Blogger residentMoron October 08, 2016 1:06 AM  

We're being played. The destruction of our civilization is a necessary pre-condition BECAUSE it is built on Christianity, the moral and philosophical opposite of our enemies' foundation.

Blogger residentMoron October 08, 2016 1:13 AM  

DT

At every step of our economic destruction, the sane and experienced analysts have been wrongfooted for kne reason; they assumed the decision makers are rational and that this rationality acts as a limitation to their actions.

But they're not, and t hasn't.

Negative interest rates? Helicopter money? FED directly buying bonds and stocks? FED balance sheet going from 600 billion to 14 Trillion overnight?

All these things were once unthinkable. But now they're ho hum.

Apply that to politics and war; the results might surprise you.

Blogger Geir Balderson October 08, 2016 1:18 AM  

And, in all of this turmoil, where is the shining king Barry and his Nobel Peace Prize? He seems to have a charmed life of 50% approval and no one seems to know what does or approves? This whole Syrian 'conflict' is surreal!!

Blogger GFR October 08, 2016 1:20 AM  

@11
.
I think you're right - the left see's 2016 as the opportunity to put a permanent voting majority in place.
.
But they also see this as a "must win" for them. If they don't the ALT-Right gets stronger, Trump puts dozens of treasonous democrat politicians in jail, and the MSM becomes irrelevant compared to the new media.
.
God protect the United States.

Blogger Kona Commuter October 08, 2016 1:30 AM  

I'd like to know WTF Australia is doing getting involved in Syria. The RAAF were involved in that attack that killed Syrian soldiers.

Australia under the current regime had it's then Prime Minister physically threaten Putin whom was a guest. This saw unfriendly foreign warships off the Australian coast. The first time since WWII.

The current regime insisted that Russia was behind the shooting down of the Malaysian passenger plane before the aircraft wreckage had even been secured. I read that senior military commanders were horrified when they were asked in all seriousness about Australia's capabilities to field combat troops in the Ukraine. If any nation was going to do this it is Malaysia FFS.

China is less than impressed with Australia. No less than three threats have been made telling Australia to mind it's own fucking business. Yet here we are, Australian politicians talking big about practising "right of passage" using our warships.

Here's a prediction. The Chinese navy attacks Australian navy in the territory they've claimed. Perhaps the Chinese spoof the RAN's GPS and trick the RAN into actually entering Chinese territorial waters (that no nation can dispute). Maybe even sinking the RAN warship. Now what? Australia and China go to war? The US isn't going to go to war over this. Especially if the sinking occurs in Chinese waters. Then Australia will rediscover that a defence strategy wholly dependant on a foreign "big brother" ala WWII (when the UK withdrew all her forces to the UK and demanded Australian forces abandon Australia to defend the motherland) isn't smart.

To top it all off we've pissed off Indonesia and now Malaysia.

Blogger GFR October 08, 2016 1:38 AM  

@51
.
So what if China sank an Australian warship?
.
They don't have enough troops or transport capability to threaten the Australian mainland.
.
And they don't have enough sea power to cut Australias shipping lanes off from the rest of the world.
.
South Korea, Taiwan and Japan are in a much weaker position than you.

Anonymous Ronnie October 08, 2016 1:45 AM  

Hey Vox, had a few too many beers last week when you added me to the spam file. How about let's bury the hatchet?

Blogger residentMoron October 08, 2016 1:56 AM  

MacArthur sold the Australian defense establishment the threat of Yellow Peril (with, admittedly, some help from the Imperial Japanese Navy) and they've been cravenly licking Uncle Sam's jackboots ever since.

Blogger ZhukovG October 08, 2016 2:19 AM  

@52 GFR: The Royal Australian Navy is like the 15th or 16th largest in the world. The 'Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force',(don't you just know they call it the IJN when they know Americans aren't listening) is the 4th largest Navy.

The Japanese are not allowed Aircraft Carriers, though their newest 'Destroyer', the Izumo, has a curiously flat deck.

The Chinese Navy is the 3rd largest in the world and the only navy with more submarines is the USN.

As for Australia, the Chinese do not have the sea lift capacity to invade. However, their sub fleet would make hash of the Australian Navy.

Blogger Alexandros October 08, 2016 2:38 AM  

What is the most frustrating thing about all of this is that Syria was once the IT capital of the Middle East; it was rapidly becoming a country able to lift itself out of the mire of middle east tragedies, until (((America))) got involved.

And now, just when it looks like the nightmare might finally begin to be abated, (((the United States))) has to go and escalate things in order to keep Syria a hellhole.

It's beyond evil.

Blogger Ezekiel October 08, 2016 2:50 AM  

peppermintfrosted wrote:The US can win against Russia in Syria? The US can't win against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Kerry just asked the Taliban to make an honorable peace with the US puppet government.

If present trends continue, in ten years, the US won't even have the capability to resist a Russian invasion of the US, and I for one will welcome our new Russian overlords even if they make me go to church in their slave camps.

Could you imagine Russia offering a free shipment of new T-90's to help uphold the sovereignty of any US state wishes to leave the Union? Texas would take T-34's in the offer.

(shades of "Victoria" in there)

Blogger Alexandros October 08, 2016 2:53 AM  

You laugh, but I believe Putin has in on record stating that he would provide support to Texas if it chose to secede from the union in the hopes that it would destabilize the US. Whether that actually means trying to smuggle in weapons or not is... well he probably couldn't even he wanted to.

Blogger Elder Son October 08, 2016 2:57 AM  

To say it is a pipeline, is only partially correct. This was all spit on the worlds face back in 1972.

The one thing EVERYONE is missing in Syria:

This is the broader plan of the globalists to create a Sunni Arab/Persia Union, with Turkey and/or Saudi Arabia being its head (King). My bet is Turkey, after all, it is a globalist NATO member.

I'd invite everyone to Go0gle "Club of Rome map" - I'll do it, here: http://timbernard.org/club%20rome%20map.jpg and note region 7. Does region 7 look familiar at all to the 21st Century? Granted, this was laid out in 1972, but all one has to do is just make some 21st Century reality modifications, and it becomes quite clear. Paint Eastern Europe yellow to reflect the globalist gain. Paint Turkey purple to reflect the ongoing conflict. You can even now paint Mexico green.

It's all right there spitting in our faces. One just has to keep in mind, that the globalist dream is a work in progress. The Club of Rome was/is a work in progress.

What was it Bush Sr. said? AND - WE - WILL - BE {Smirk}. He wasn't kidding. He wasn't making a joke. He wasn't being sly. He was deadly serious. And it wasn't just a threat, it was a promise. They have the globalist faith of the Mustard seed. These people are true believers. When you wrap your mind around that, it is what we are dealing with. https://youtu.be/oN-flYaXNLQ

There will be a move on Syria. There will be a feint in Eastern Europe. Damascus will be turned into rubble.

Enjoy the ride. You won't be left untouched. It's not going to happen tonight. I may not happen next week. But it will happen.

Blogger Elder Son October 08, 2016 3:04 AM  

Syria was a Middle Class country. I could post videos of Damascus and it's people as it is today. These people love their country, despite the few who have joined the various US Pentagon/CIA/State Dept. "moderate" Islamic Jihad for "freedom" mercenary terrorists. And the vast majority of them are not the "RAG-HEADS" that so many are fond of calling them.

Anonymous The Kulak October 08, 2016 3:36 AM  

@ 24 "The horizontal is Saudi Arabia somehow" not somehow. The MSM did a remarkable job before the Houthis put a Chinese made and likely Hezbollah delivered C802 anti-ship missile into a UAE catamaran, killing and wounding several aboard, of pretending the Saudis aren't losing their war in Yemen. Sure the MSM occasionally permits criticism of our wonderful Saudi allies the defenders of 'Sunni blood' as the Wahhabi-ZioCon think tank Hudson Institute's Michael Pregent calls them. But discuss Saudi/UAE/Kuwaiti casualties into the thousands, and not just Yemeni rent a tribes and black Sudanese cannon fodder Riyadh considers to be subhuman? Well no the WaPost's ((Josh Rogins)) and Michael Pregents of D.C. can't discuss the remotest possibility that Saudi cash to subsidize their beloved Syria jihadis is NOT unlimited, and the Saudis can bleed too by the thousands from cheap anti-tank missiles and people will to die while shouting Allah Snackbar to fire them.

Yes dear neocons that TOW missile porn you like to jerk off to imaging Hezbollah or Syrians or Rooskies getting lit up goes both ways. There are videos on YouTube Suckerberg and Gov-oogle haven't taken down yet showing Houthis roasting U.S.-made Abrams tanks and Bradleys with Russian made Kornet missiles. The Houthis have basically overrun the SW Saudi border which if it weren't for the fact they haven't hit the Aramco refinery at Jizan on the Red Sea would be headline news, but there's a quasi-successful blackout on dead Saudis on Twitter thanks to some princes' investment with @Jack, and the #Houthis #Yemen hashtag is nearly all KSA PR firm propaganda now.

This week the Houthis shelled a Saudi occupied island off their country's coast with Urugan MLRS. Yes the same kind of rocket launchers that the Ukrainians use to shell villages where the Donbass rebels are and that the 'voentorg' from Russia and perhaps a few bribed Ukie generals delivered to the Lugansk/Donetsk People's Republics militia. So the Houthis have their own voentorg and if team WahhabiZioCon achieves John McInsane's wet dream of sending Stinger MANPADs to the 'moderate' Syria jihadis and not the Pakistani-Chinese knockoffs the Qataris delivered earlier, the Houthis will get Strela 10s from Russia with love via Iran and Oman to blow Royal Saudi Air Force F-15s and Eurofighters out of the sky. Want to shell or rocket Russian bases including at Homs or Palmyra? Don't worry, Vlad will see to it the Houthis get Iranian cruise missiles you didn't know they had, fired with perfect timing courtesy of GRU SIGINT to strike while some British lad working for BAE or Boeing contractor is at King Khalid Air Base on the tarmac. That's how John Kirby's rhetoric about Russians in 'body bags' ends up after the USAF killed some RU advisers at Deir Ez Zor and the Russians retaliated in kind against that spook base inside Syria with Kalibrs. And that is the main reason the U.S. is backing down in Syria, not that our invisible, invincible F-22s will get shot down by S400s (they might) but because the Russians know where our JSOC guys are at Hasakah and where the NATO 'vacationers' and private military contractors 'aren't' in Mariupol, and will take them out if we kill theirs. There's only so many Taliban or ISIS suicide bombings that never actually happened you can make up to hide US/NATO KIA from covert Russian actions.

Anonymous The Kulak October 08, 2016 3:46 AM  

If Hildabeast 'wins' through massive voter machine fraud the Russians have their contigency plans in place to make some rapid advances against ISIS/Daesh in Syria before Hillary! seizes power on January 20. Whether they would actually take Raqqa I doubt, but a VDV brigade reinforced with helos and mobile arty plus lots of drones should be able to link up with friendly Iraqi Shi'a forces attacking the Daeshbags from the east and lift the siege of Deir Ez Zor. That would put the U.S. in a bind and block ISIS function as the placeholder for that 'Sunni principality' the DIA memo of 2012 predicted and that the 'oopsie' bombing of the SAA was meant to support.

I also suspect if more targeting of Russians happens in Syria the NATO guys who 'aren't' in eastern Ukraine/Donbass will find out the hard way Russia has missile armed drones that fly at night too, especially over Azov's CP in Mariupol where the SS Das Reich division Wolfshook flag wavers seem to have a large foreign 'volunteer' contingent.

Anonymous The Kulak October 08, 2016 4:18 AM  

@ 51 " I read that senior military commanders were horrified when they were asked in all seriousness about Australia's capabilities to field combat troops in the Ukraine. If any nation was going to do this it is Malaysia FFS."

http://johnhelmer.net/?p=14787

For what it's worth Aussie journo John Helmer the longest serving Western journalist in Moscow who's been there since 1991 reported the Australian police report revealing no BUK shrapnel in the bodies of Aussie victims of MH17 was publically released before being abruptly classified. Why the Malaysians went along with the fraud of the Ukrainians being given a veto over the release of anything incriminating to their forces including the Dnepropetrovsk ATC directing MH17 to fly further north and lower over a war zone when it would've been safe over the Sea of Azov, I don't know. I suspect it has to do with Malaysian Airlines being almost bankrupt and not being able to afford another 'accident' like MH370 or MH17, rather than the Malaysians actually believing the evil Russian BUK did it even though hell will freeze over before Uncle Sam releases any of the sat pics/IR of the missile launch Kerry says they had but the Dutch later said they didn't have or see.

FWIW I don't believe that either a Ukie or Russian BUK could have done it, and the JIT's BUK is a magic BUK and their test supposedly done in Finland with a Finnish BUK was only done after Almaz Antey the manufacturer's own explosion on a mock cockpit showed the shrapnel damage was wildly inconsistent with the launch site the JIT claimed. Instead whatever hit MH17 if it wasn't taken out with a bomb on board planted at the Amsterdam airport came from the south, not the southeast. The Ukies had BUKs in range but nobody saw them launch or filmed a smoke trail from them either, and the one pic we have a smoke trail from the supposed rebel areas is another SBU (Ukrainian Security Service) fake. The Ukies did it, probably with Georgian made Israeli Aircraft Industries modified SU-25KM with two Israeli Python 5 AAMs that shot the airliner down from 2 km below and head on closure with it. The Russians aren't leaking that part because they don't want to screw up their accomodation in Syria with Bibi. Or they're using it to blackmail Barry and Porky.

Blogger Elder Son October 08, 2016 4:22 AM  

The West coast of the Persian Gulf will light up like Dresden courtesy of Iranian Scuds, and Russia's new delivery. And of course the revenge of the Houthis. It's not going to be the little fire-cracker that could.

I've watched some of those vids of Houthis taking on the Saudi's armor or hill-top outposts. It's always interesting to watch the Saudi's run around like a bunch of chickens with their heads cut off. There was one in particular that just left me scratching my head and thinking, WTF are you doing? Walked right into it, repeatedly.

Blogger The Observer October 08, 2016 4:41 AM  

@kulak

malaysia may have pissed off the US. last year an obviously astroturfed campaign reminiscent of ye olde 'colour revolutions' about the world was supposed to have taken money from the US to destabilise the federal government.

Blogger Kona Commuter October 08, 2016 4:44 AM  

Regarding China invading Australia. I never suggested they would / could. China has already given the strongest hint that they're going to give Australia a "Bloody nose" for meddling.

Australia will be mighty pissed at China attacking one of our ships but is the US going to go to war over this? It'd be an allies ship attacked by a nation that's not the current boogy man & one that's a nuclear power at that.

I just think that Australia should mind our own goddamn business and NOT piss off nuclear powers.

FWIW I just read that there's thoughts that Russian soldiers were killed in that mistake in Syria by the US airforce and that the not talked about Russian response isn't talked about because the message was received loud and clear that it's tit-for-tat.

Anonymous Bz October 08, 2016 6:44 AM  

I can't really see the US strategic interest in demolishing Syria, implementing genocide of the Alawites, setting in motion further refugee hordes to arrive on Merkel's doorstep ("Vhy don't you come in, big boys?"), and last but not least, forever guarding a pipeline that will be subject to many an IED. Not much in it for the US, thus, but it does seem clear there are some regional interests, perhaps intermingled with corporate interests, who don't mind destroying a competitor and would gain a nice piece of change out of it.

Conclusion: The US in this case is just a mercenary army doing the dirty work of their employers, obviously employed at a below cost rate at that. Because they need to get rid of last year's munitions and there are always some dumbasses at home to pick up the tab.

Anonymous Bz October 08, 2016 6:52 AM  

Meanwhile, it seems Ukraine will be quietly looted by globalist interests now that the campaign has stalled. The feast will go on there for a while, and, who knows, perhaps it can be used in the future as a staging area for bearding the Russian? Or hey, just hand Ukraine back to Russia once the furniture and antiques have been spirited away and the copper pipes have been ripped out. Because, as Clinton memorably once told us, at that point, who cares?

(Could a land war with Russia be President Clinton's crowning achievement? I'm sure there's a Nobel Peace Prize in there somewhere in that case.)

Anonymous Bz October 08, 2016 6:59 AM  

In less triggering news, this year I celebrated Lepanto by reading Niccolo Capponi's Victory of the West, which indeed concerned that battle.

An intriguing passage from the Prologue:

The glow of the early afternoon sun hovered over the city of Rome, shining through the windows of the Vatican palace as Pope Pius V conversed with a group of close collaborators ... Suddenly Pius walked towards a window, opened it and stood for some time looking at the sky. At length closing the shutters, he turned towards his treasurer Bartolomeo Busotti. 'It is no time for business,' he exclaimed, his face lit with joy. 'Let us go and thank God, for this very moment our fleet has defeated the Turks.'

Blogger Skylark Thibedeau October 08, 2016 7:43 AM  

Could the Russian horizontal be an attack on the Saudi Oil Fields? That would truly be Shock and Awe.

Anonymous Athor Pel October 08, 2016 8:23 AM  

"57. Alexandros October 08, 2016 2:53 AM

You laugh, but I believe Putin has in on record stating that he would provide support to Texas if it chose to secede from the union in the hopes that it would destabilize the US. Whether that actually means trying to smuggle in weapons or not is... well he probably couldn't even he wanted to.
"


If the Russians were far sighted enough they would already have arms stockpiles in place. The questions to ask is how big are the caches and what is in them. Did they only preposition enough gear for sleeper cells and game day special ops or did they anticipate training and arming thousands? Are there man-portable heavy weapons or just small arms?

As for smuggling, ask yourself, just how effective has the war on drugs been? Have they stopped the flow? At all? No?

With smuggling, as long as you have good operational security you can do anything you want with nobody knowing about it.

Blogger dienw October 08, 2016 8:35 AM  

Look... there is only one way that things change and yet still hold the country together is for Trump to lose with long coat tails. That will drive the right to split and provide room for a conservative Nationalist Christian front to be openned ..which is what every one here really wants whether you know it yet or not. And you are almost there.. Donald has done his job and what happens in Nov changes the long game in no significant way...

Clueless.

If Hillary wins, there will be no 2020,2024,2028, ad infinitum. The Democrat/Communist party/ Party of the Oligarchs will not allow it.

Blogger Werekoala1066 October 08, 2016 9:08 AM  

Alas, Babylon....

Blogger Johnny October 08, 2016 9:10 AM  

@70 If Hillary wins, there will be no 2020,2024,2028, ad infinitum. The Democrat/Communist party/ Party of the Oligarchs will not allow it.

Well, it will be there but it will be fake. It is almost fake already.

Blogger Daniel October 08, 2016 9:14 AM  

Se llaman Malvinas carajo

Anonymous patrick kelly October 08, 2016 9:15 AM  

Counter to all the wishful thinking here Russia will use nukes to defend Syria and Assad.

History starts way before 1945 some people might want to learn about it

Blogger JaimeInTexas October 08, 2016 9:16 AM  

Nueces - Rio Grande
Fort Sumter
Maine
Lucitania
Submarine ramming and Pearl Harbor
Gulf of Tonkin (fake)

Blogger JaimeInTexas October 08, 2016 9:28 AM  

There has been a proxyvwar in the Middle East for a long time. Since WW1, at least, the Arabs vs. Persians and the West has sided with the Arabs. Mainly because the Persians were successful in keeping the West from owning them.

Anonymous Clay October 08, 2016 9:49 AM  

JaimeInTexas wrote:There has been a proxyvwar in the Middle East for a long time. Since WW1, at least, the Arabs vs. Persians and the West has sided with the Arabs.

Don't forget the Macedonian, Alexander The Great.

Whether you choose to call him "Western", is of course, your interpretation.

Blogger ZhukovG October 08, 2016 9:50 AM  

@74 patrick kelly: It isn't wishful thinking, it is a rational hypothesis. Putin appears to be a rational actor. His plan 'A' is to save Assad and Syria, thus blocking the building of any pipeline. Even failing that he still has plenty of resources he can use to disrupt the pipeline, plan 'B' if you will.

While Russia spends little, the United States is bleeding itself to death all over the world. Time is on Russia's side. Which may be why the 'Hildabeast' comes with wrath because she knows the time is short.

Russia will not use nukes unless the Russian Federation itself is invaded and not likely even then. As I have said before; a nation can recover from losing a conventional war(See: Germany), there is no recovery from global thermonuclear war.

Anonymous Clay October 08, 2016 10:09 AM  

WHAT pipeline? I keep seeing this. From where to where? What's the purpose of the "pipeline"?

Blogger FrankNorman October 08, 2016 10:44 AM  

79. Clay October 08, 2016 10:09 AM

WHAT pipeline? I keep seeing this. From where to where? What's the purpose of the "pipeline"?


It's supposed to carry oil or gas from one of the Gulf States to Europe.

Anonymous paradox October 08, 2016 11:14 AM  

MAD worked during the Cold War. I don't know how MAD can work for Cold War 2.0. MAD requires sane actors. This time one faction is completely insane and believes men can use the women's restroom.

Blogger Were-Puppy October 08, 2016 11:15 AM  

@9 Stilicho
Meanwhile, the ChiComs are laughing their asses off as their two biggest enemies are squaring off.
---

They are expanding their reach in Asia while this nonsense goes on.

Blogger Were-Puppy October 08, 2016 11:22 AM  

@20 Grabby McGrab

Ungallant? Well, my word!
---

*grabs the mangina*
*struts about virtuously*

Anonymous Ominous Cowherd October 08, 2016 11:23 AM  

ZhukovG wrote:Russia will not use nukes unless the Russian Federation itself is invaded and not likely even then. As I have said before; a nation can recover from losing a conventional war(See: Germany), there is no recovery from global thermonuclear war.

You belive that. Do the decision makers? What definition of ``recover'' do they use?

Anonymous Clay October 08, 2016 11:25 AM  

Well, thanks, Frank. That explains a lot.

I worked in the energy sector for 28 years. I wasn't sure what a pipeline was.

Blogger Were-Puppy October 08, 2016 11:30 AM  

@44 Helton Strom

5) Globalists pitching an epic hissy fit, and pursuing their Malthusian dreams by doubling down as much as possible before Trump grabs their manginas

Blogger Were-Puppy October 08, 2016 11:40 AM  

@58 Elder Son

I knew about the EU.
I knew about the NAU.
I have read about a proposed Asian Union.

But I had not seen anything regarding Africa, middle east and places like Australia. This is part of that puzzle.

Thanks for pointing it out.

Anonymous patrick kelly October 08, 2016 12:49 PM  

ZhukovG wrote:@74 patrick kelly: ...
Russia will not use nukes unless the Russian Federation itself is invaded .....
there is no recovery from global thermonuclear war.


Yet the Russians are currently preparing to do so (survive a nuclear war). The history and ties between Moscow and Damascus are at least as deep and much older than between the US and England.

If the Brits didn't have their own nuclear deterrent and the Russians were arming and setting the IRA loose against them with the stated goal of regime change and removing the Queen do you think the US would not use nukes to defend her?

How about Russian stirring up crap in Mexico, or setting up air bases in Cuba again?

US sets up no fly zone ultimatum.

Combat between US and Russian air power, high casualties, Russian launches massive support *from Russian territory*.

US/NATO attacks bases and ships in Russian territory.

The bigger game is on. Russian will use nukes at this point to take out US Naval forces and air bases in the region if necessary.

Best case scenario is US cucks don't have the ballz or come to their senses are realize they have stupidly overplayed their hand and don't respond in kind. Worse case is the ICBMS are set loose. Everything between still suks.

I hope you are right. I have never wanted so much to be wrong in all my life.

Blogger JaimeInTexas October 08, 2016 12:58 PM  

Just trying to stay with the more recent connections, otherwise, we might end up with Noah's grandkids.

Blogger ZhukovG October 08, 2016 1:22 PM  

@88 patrick kelly: The reason I used the word 'hypothesis', is because I might not be right. There are a lot of unknowns.

If I had to talk percentages; I'd say 70% chance any conflict between Russia and the USA stays conventional, regardless of outcome. Not odds I'd bet my life on. You get better odds with Russian Roulette.

Anonymous patrick kelly October 08, 2016 1:25 PM  

@ZhukovG

Fair enough. The subject is one of my buttons that gets easily pushed. I hope I'm wrong. I hope enough smaller scale stuff goes to shit to slow down the slide to oblivion. The US needs to pull it's dick out of that nasty hole.

Blogger Subversive Saint October 08, 2016 7:35 PM  

Do you recall that God would draw Magog to war in Syria "by the nose"?

Blogger Were-Puppy October 08, 2016 8:32 PM  

@91
Pretty sure its more globalist and necons and they don't care about the US or Russia. Malthusians.

@92
Yes, and it sounds like a nuclear exchange with Israel?

Anonymous SciVo October 09, 2016 1:32 AM  

The Observer wrote:malaysia may have pissed off the US. last year an obviously astroturfed campaign reminiscent of ye olde 'colour revolutions' about the world was supposed to have taken money from the US to destabilise the federal government.

Malaysia is so insignificant, I honestly think Obama is simply pro-jihad. He wants to see Muslims raping and torturing people to death. Fantasizing about it is the only way he can maintain an erection with his wife.

Anonymous SciVo October 09, 2016 1:48 AM  

Elder Son wrote:I've watched some of those vids of Houthis taking on the Saudi's armor or hill-top outposts. It's always interesting to watch the Saudi's run around like a bunch of chickens with their heads cut off. There was one in particular that just left me scratching my head and thinking, WTF are you doing? Walked right into it, repeatedly.

Skypes always make a big deal about how Germans marched because it's alien to them. They and their fellow solipsistic desert tribes can exploit social order, but they can't create or maintain it with anything less than codified brutality.

So the more Arabs and Africans and whatnot are here, the more brutal the law must get to maintain order. But it will always be preferentially enforced against those who resist enforcement least, which are also those least in need of enforcement.

Anarcho-tyranny is the inevitable result of allowing non-whites into white nations.

Anonymous SciVo October 09, 2016 1:49 AM  

Sorry, tangent off of how disorganized they are. They also can't march.

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