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Tuesday, November 01, 2016

3.1 million

For nearly 10 years, I didn't think much about the traffic statistics, until in 2012, a few Scalzi fans began trying to taunt me with McRapey's supposedly massive traffic at Whatever. (Key word: supposedly). So, it now gives me a sense of satisfaction every time a new high-water mark is reached. October 2016 marks the first time I've hit three times the all-time peak for the former most popular blog in science fiction, which was recorded in May 2012.

Of course, it's around 6x Whatever's current traffic, but no one cares about that anymore.

Anyhow, October set a new traffic records for both VP - 2,615,169 Google pageviews - and VP+AG - 3,112,416. It will be close, but it now looks like the combined blog total will exceed 30 million in 2016, up considerably from last year's 20,776,969 pageviews.

A lot of that is the election, of course, but there was no dropoff at all after November 2012, so perhaps the newly come Ilk will become the foundation for the next ramp up to 50 million annually. Who knows?

There is a deeper point to this post, however, beyond the petty ball-spiking. Past performance can be indicative of future performance, but that is not always the case. For example, I have a pretty good statistical model that predicts traffic growth with a reasonable degree of accuracy. It can be so good that it predicted 1,990,883 pageviews in January 2016. The actual number was 1,982,034. That's precision to within half of one percent! It also predicted 27,682,865 pageviews for 2016; we're presently at 24,247,801 with two months to go. Not bad, right?

That, you see, is why I take dh very seriously when he discusses the election in terms of the historical poll analyses. His perspective is not irrelevant. Far from it. On the other hand, one also has to be aware that these statistical trends, however reliable they tend to be, are not determinative. One also has to pay attention to potential outliers, and recognize the scenarios when they are likely to be in play.

For example, my impressively precise traffic model predicted 2,019,930 pageviews in October 2016. The actual result, previously mentioned, turned out to be 54 percent higher.

TL;DR: Thank you for visiting. Feel free to join the discourse. And please to enjoy the incipient Trumpslide.

Labels: ,

78 Comments:

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) November 01, 2016 10:00 AM  

Half a holocaust of pageviews is very impressive. Congrats and keep up the good work, and don't forget about book 2.

Anonymous fish November 01, 2016 10:02 AM  

For example, my impressively precise traffic model predicted 2,019,930 pageviews in October 2016. The actual result, previously mentioned, turned out to be 54 percent higher.



Big deal.....so you have impressive traffic numbers. How's your lawn?

Anonymous WinstonWebb November 01, 2016 10:02 AM  

Half a holocaust of pageviews is very impressive.

3 quadrillion page views?!?!!

Anonymous Elijah Rhodes November 01, 2016 10:02 AM  

I'm not surprised, considering your consistently great output. But congrats just the same.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 01, 2016 10:09 AM  

Meh, but you don't attract much in the way of interesting trolls, certainly no one who can challenge your IQ or more importantly your wit.

Anonymous Intravenus De Milo November 01, 2016 10:10 AM  

I have been reading your blog since 2004. It's been mandatory reading for me every day. Keep up the good work!

Blogger dc.sunsets November 01, 2016 10:12 AM  

the only fly in the Trumpslide ointment is Mr. Market.

Neither I nor anyone else knows for sure what Mr. Market is about to do. That said, the charts lean toward a rally, quite soon. One may not materialize. Maybe the market has already topped. But as long as the S&P500 holds support around 2106, the sideways consolidation of the last 2-1/2 months seems more likely to resolve higher.

If it does so in the next 5 trading days it would favor the Status Quo candidate, and Clinton is nothing if not Status Quo Continuation. Even writing this makes me throw up a little in my mouth.

Anonymous Andrew November 01, 2016 10:14 AM  

I'm a relative newbie. I came on board after listening to your conversation with Tom Woods about SJWAL. I'll be sticking around after the election.

Blogger VD November 01, 2016 10:15 AM  

I came on board after listening to your conversation with Tom Woods about SJWAL. I'll be sticking around after the election.

Glad to hear it. And welcome.

Blogger Azimus November 01, 2016 10:29 AM  

Does comment volume track with page visits? I have a feeling at least 20% of the increase is bob k mando hitting refresh every 10 seconds to see if anyone dared to challenge his assertions...

Blogger Azimus November 01, 2016 10:30 AM  

Truthfully I find this website immensely useful as the VFM legion share different pieces of information in the comments that support/update the posts - very timely, very cool.

Blogger James Dixon November 01, 2016 10:35 AM  

> That, you see, is why I take dh very seriously when he discusses the election in terms of the historical poll analyses.

Except for the minor fact that his analyses only go back to the late 90's. if I'm remembering correctly. He knows nothing about the polls in the Nixon and Reagan years, or how they mirrored the results we're seeing to date.

Blogger haus frau November 01, 2016 10:37 AM  

By the way, my kids are using infogalactic for their school report today. No more wikipedia for us.

Blogger Cerdic Ricing November 01, 2016 10:37 AM  

I usually drift around the more... interesting parts of the younger far-right, but I'll stick here as well. Sometimes a cooler perspective over our hot-bloodedness is refreshing and opens up new thoughts. I've learned a lot here that I've started applying to my knowledge, actions, and beliefs that I would never have gotten from them.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist November 01, 2016 10:37 AM  

Every morning, I open my browser, and I click on Drudge. After Drudge, I click on this blog next. Then Breibart 3rd.

Congrats! Here's to doubling that number!

Blogger Stilicho November 01, 2016 10:38 AM  

Ceteris is never quite paribus. Thus, linear thinkers fail when they falsely assume it. dh based his state poll position on 2012. I am not aware of any other years he considered, including current year primaries, 2014 patterns, or even 2008 ( a big year for his team).

Blogger VD November 01, 2016 10:44 AM  

By the way, my kids are using infogalactic for their school report today. No more wikipedia for us.

Must be a big report. We just had to increase our server resources.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr November 01, 2016 10:45 AM  

I don't WANT an incipient Trumpslide. I want the aftermath of an actual Trumpslide. Crushing America's enemies, seeing Clintons dragged off to prison, and hearing the lamentation of the media.

Blogger VD November 01, 2016 10:46 AM  

Sometimes a cooler perspective over our hot-bloodedness is refreshing and opens up new thoughts.

If you want to win, you need both. Cold-blooded analysis without action accomplishes nothing. Hot-blooded action without analysis leads to disaster.

OpenID bc64a9f8-765e-11e3-8683-000bcdcb2996 November 01, 2016 10:46 AM  

"Of course, it's around 6x Whatever's current traffic, but no one cares about that anymore"
I blame twice daily political polls, belied hourly by "media".
Then of course, there's the Comey "seasonal respect" effect.
CaptDMO

Anonymous mature-Craig November 01, 2016 10:46 AM  

I saw a youtube clip of you talking to Sean Hannity, you should head in that direction. the world could use more awesome-ness , The Bible talks about how talent shouldn't be buried

-best
Craig

Anonymous kfg November 01, 2016 10:50 AM  

http://fm.cnbc.com/applications/cnbc.com/resources/img/editorial/2015/10/13/103073957-GettyImages-475064080.530x298.jpg

They happen.

Anonymous Hezekiah Garrett November 01, 2016 10:55 AM  

Came for the second round of Rabid puppies, stayed for the insightful OPs and commentariat. Taki got nuttin on the Ilk.

Recently, I've started checking VP before Drudge even. I also prolly account for 2% of your page views. Did I mention the commentariat is almost as good as the SDL himself?

Maybe 6306 is right. Ought to just request my number and get in line for the flogging.

Anonymous mature-Craig November 01, 2016 10:57 AM  

THe blog is great,... I recall ten years ago or so you talking about the importance of shedding toxic acquaintances,.. as great as it is, there is some toxic stuff here from some of the commenters that doesn't help you or anyone in my opinion

Blogger Cerdic Ricing November 01, 2016 10:57 AM  

If you want to win, you need both. Cold-blooded analysis without action accomplishes nothing. Hot-blooded action without analysis leads to disaster.

I'll make sure to keep that in mind. Thank you for the perspective there.

Anonymous Goodnight November 01, 2016 11:01 AM  

I've been reading Vox since his mohawk wearing WND days. I don't comment much (and used a different handle until a couple of years ago) but I'm here adding to the views every day. Congrats on 3 million!!

Blogger praetorian November 01, 2016 11:13 AM  

Nov 2016: the wrath of the awakened normies.

Congrats and thanks.

Anonymous Sam the Man November 01, 2016 11:15 AM  

As Far as DH goes, I think the problem is he is mistaking the model for reality. I work in hardware engineering, my brother is a physicist and we both see this occur quite a bit with smart folks who do not occasionally question their models, boundary conditions or selective sampling bias.

Thing is most prediction models are piecewise continuous. Simply stated is they work relatively well as long as the boundary values are not changing rapidly. When the start conditions shift suddenly, the outcome does as well.

The second issue is deliberate sampling error. it is hard to examine the sampling without concluding that there is a deliberate under sampling of some groups, (such as non college educated) in this season. The rate of white college educated electorate is under 30% but the polls are sampling (when they have provided the data) more like 54 to 60% college educated white.

We have signs of that this election being in a region of instability, much like 1980:

1) The first business man (non-politician) nominated by a mainstream party...ever. The only non politicians nominated prior were Grant and Eisenhower, both came out of what were arguably the two largest and most successfully prosecuted wars in our history (Civil and WWII). That alone in unprecedented.

2)Today data coming out the Florida early votes shows 32% of white democratic voters who have voted early are going for Trump. Sampling of Black voters show something like 15% are going for Trump. That is very much like 1980. My guess is it is not reflected in the polls because of deliberate mendacity on the part of the press and polling organizations.

Anonymous Anonymous November 01, 2016 11:18 AM  

Whynotname the Washington Redskins the Washington Navaho? Or else what should they be named?

Blogger Nick S November 01, 2016 11:21 AM  

All of Tads' wise admonitions on what you needed to do to become more socially acceptable has obviously paid off...finally. That used to crack me up.

Anonymous VFM #6306 November 01, 2016 11:25 AM  

The Redskins, which is the damn tribe they are named after, you genocidal maniac.

Blogger pdwalker November 01, 2016 11:33 AM  

I think a lot of it has to do with your machine like output of multiple articles per day. It still boggles my mind.

Well done.

Anonymous Ironsides November 01, 2016 11:35 AM  

VD wrote:Sometimes a cooler perspective over our hot-bloodedness is refreshing and opens up new thoughts.

If you want to win, you need both. Cold-blooded analysis without action accomplishes nothing. Hot-blooded action without analysis leads to disaster.


Just for the hell of it, a reported exchange in the 17th century between King Gustavus II Adolphus, "Lion of the North," and his friend and adviser Count Axel Oxenstierna:

Gustavus Adolphus: If we were all as cold as you, we would freeze.

Oxenstierna: And if we were all as hot as Your Majesty, we would burn.
--------------

Anyway, congrats on the 3.1 million!

Blogger michaeloh59 November 01, 2016 11:38 AM  

Congrats Vox. I found your blog last summer while trying to understand, as a non-gamer, what this Gamergate controversy was all about and how in the world were Gamers defeating (for the first and only time since the Hooters campaign) the Social Justice Nazis. I came for the Gamergate but I stayed for the unique political and social commentary with the occasional bonus tutorial on rhetoric and socio-sexual hierarchy. Further, you ain't afraid to scrap- and courage, Gentlemen, courage is just as important as intellect, values, memes and ideas. No victory will be won until more of us ain't afraid to give or take an ass whuppin. Vox leads by example.

Blogger Basil Makedon November 01, 2016 11:48 AM  

Grats VD. I find the site and the posts and comments highly entertaining and often interesting -- even when I disagree with them. I came here because of the books (which I enjoy immensely), then realized you were an old WND commentator that I had vague recollections of and decided to stay and enjoy the ambiance.

I probably won't be as active after Nov. 8 -- I'll either be drunk and/or blinding more Bulgars in celebration or buying canned goods, antibiotics and ammo -- depending on the outcome.

Blogger Noah B November 01, 2016 11:49 AM  

That's great and all, but can your daughter bench more than you can?

Anonymous Hezekiah Garrett November 01, 2016 11:59 AM  

@32. You're making a mistake. All the good antibiotics are going to be triple the price, and don't get me started on ammo! Depending on the outcome, of course.

Blogger Sillon Bono November 01, 2016 12:01 PM  

VD,

Congrats, you deserve the success for providing us this corner of freedom in the inter-webs.

I wish my English was better to express how grateful I am for having discovered your page and find out I wasn't alone with my anti-PC approach to life.

Cheers not to the 3.1 but to the next 4 million page views per month!

Blogger jandolin November 01, 2016 12:04 PM  

"is why I take dh very seriously"

It would help readers who are not regulars if cryptic references were made explicit.

Anonymous kfg November 01, 2016 12:08 PM  

@34: http://www.accuratebigboreairgunammo.com/deer%20457%204.jpg

.457 at 98 yards. That's an air gun.

https://www.nps.gov/museum/exhibits/revwar/image_gal/gucoimg/web_exhibit/guco1510shotmold_2bullets467_471_exb.jpg

That's your source of ammo.

You can't stop the signal, Mal.

Blogger Balázs Varga November 01, 2016 12:11 PM  

A friend linked me this site. I usually go for both ends of the political spectrum to get my bearings, but I could not find a reliable right wing site that dealt with topic on a global level without it being full on conspiracy theorists All the right wing sites in my country only deal with national news.

While I do not necessarily agree with some of Vox's more puritan conservative/christian beliefs, I find a lot of his sociological and national analysis smart and erudite, especially when it comes to the SJWs whose nature and mindset is so utterly incomprehensible to decently reared eastern european folks.

I also gained knowledge of Infogalactic, which is a more factual wikipedia. Now most of the wikipedia articles seem to have an LGBT/human rights section larger than anything else, even where its not needed. Now if I want to look over something, that's simply a distraction from the facts I want to know.

VD also shown me the wonderfully abstract world of Tingle.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) November 01, 2016 12:11 PM  

It would help readers who are not regulars if cryptic references were made explicit.

dh is a long time reader and commenter who the token liberal around here. He is bearish on the trumpslide because of his reading of the polls, especially at the state level.

Blogger rho November 01, 2016 12:14 PM  

Congratulations, VD. This site is one of three I visit first every day, and not because I always agree with you.

Anonymous 5343 Kinds of Deplorable November 01, 2016 12:15 PM  

It would help readers who are not regulars if cryptic references were made explicit.

This is why 3 mil. Much research being conducted. dh is the resident stats guy who believes Hillary is going to pull it out based on history.

Blogger Aeoli Pera November 01, 2016 12:16 PM  

James Dixon wrote:> That, you see, is why I take dh very seriously when he discusses the election in terms of the historical poll analyses.

Except for the minor fact that his analyses only go back to the late 90's. if I'm remembering correctly. He knows nothing about the polls in the Nixon and Reagan years, or how they mirrored the results we're seeing to date.


Increasing N has diminishing returns, and often gives a false impression of reliability. There's an equivalence in statistics between sample size and "confidence", which is often false confidence.

For instance, the p-value is often used to determine whether an effect size is "statistically significant". With a high enough N, every effect will be "statistically significant". Even if it isn't, really.

I think statistics classes ought to spend far more time on statistical reasoning. All the mathy stuff you can make Excel do, but humans are vastly easier to train at perceptual tasks like interpreting significance.

Anonymous kfg November 01, 2016 12:22 PM  

"I think statistics classes ought to spend far more time on statistical reasoning."

The fields of "nutrition" and "medicine" would collapse. Not to mention a number of other even less savory fields.

Blogger Aeoli Pera November 01, 2016 12:23 PM  

dh is wrong because the Trumpslide isn't a logical problem, it's a very difficult pattern recognition problem. Wonky types have a tendency to be good at the former and bad at the latter because they're zoomed in too close.

Also, the ability to solve very difficult pattern recognition problems consistently only manifests in the very high IQ regions (ref Paul Cooijmans), and IIRC dh is a midwit.

Blogger Aeoli Pera November 01, 2016 12:24 PM  

kfg wrote:"I think statistics classes ought to spend far more time on statistical reasoning."

The fields of "nutrition" and "medicine" would collapse. Not to mention a number of other even less savory fields.


Since I'm dreaming, education too. And I want a pony.

Blogger Aeoli Pera November 01, 2016 12:27 PM  

Congrats on 3 million, by the way. Here's to 3 million more! :^)

Blogger Basil Makedon November 01, 2016 12:33 PM  

@44

Perhaps. Models are useful until they aren't. In physics and engineering one learns about linear approximation of non-linear phenomenon. For a narrow range of observation, the difference between the linear model and the non-linear (and its difficult to work with math) reality are negligible.

An excellent example of this are Newton's laws. We use Newton's laws to calculate in fields ranging from ballistics to civil engineering even though Newton's Laws are incomplete approximations. The reason being that at non-relativistic scales the error is completely acceptable and using Einstein's equations are tedious for little reward. Pi ~ 3.14 works well enough; Pi ~ 3.14157 is necessary infrequently and more digits even less frequently.

dh has been focused on polling. If the turnout models and assumptions underlying those polling data sets are close enough that the error is small, then lots of us will have egg (and the IRS) all over our faces. If the turnout model is outside of that range where its linear assumptions hold true, then dh will have egg on his face (but not the IRS).

I see observations in the real world that tend to make me conclude that the models based on 2012 are wrong, just like models based on 2004 were wrong in 2008.

We will see on Nov. 8 late in the evening when the polls close in AZ and NV or whenever the inevitable court cases are concluded...

Blogger Nick S November 01, 2016 12:37 PM  

Speaking of stats guys like dh, we have a few data analysts here and it just occurred to me that Infogalactic could institute a very good polling system with wide range of detailed demographics tracking if even only a small percentage of the readership signed up to participate. I would bet real money a more reliably predictive model than what we generally have around the country could be up and running before 2020.

Blogger jandolin November 01, 2016 12:55 PM  

"This is why 3 mil. Much research being conducted. dh is the resident stats guy who believes Hillary is going to pull it out based on history."

Thanks for the explanation.

Blogger Cluebat Vanexodar November 01, 2016 1:02 PM  

IT'S OVER 9000!!!

Anonymous kfg November 01, 2016 1:05 PM  

@45: "And I want a pony."

Well, statistically speaking, you want .8 of a pony.

Blogger Innostran November 01, 2016 1:27 PM  

This is a great blog and I've just been following for a couple of months (due to seeing some of Molyneux's videos with you). Keep up the good work and praise be to kek for the (hopefully) coming Trumpslide!

Blogger Aeoli Pera November 01, 2016 1:42 PM  

kfg wrote:@45: "And I want a pony."

Well, statistically speaking, you want .8 of a pony.


My expectation is for 0.0023 of a pony. Any day now.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 01, 2016 1:58 PM  

3.1 million is great, but what happens when the Mossad, Adelson and Soros quit paying the demoralization trolls?
Back down into Whatever ranges for you.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 01, 2016 1:59 PM  

kfg wrote:"I think statistics classes ought to spend far more time on statistical reasoning."

The fields of "nutrition" and "medicine" would collapse. Not to mention a number of other even less savory fields.

I was going to object that there weren't any less savory fields. Then I thought about Econ.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 01, 2016 2:00 PM  

Aeoli Pera wrote:My expectation is for 0.0023 of a pony. Any day now.
Try the Swedish meatballs. I got them at Ikea.

Blogger James Dixon November 01, 2016 2:02 PM  

> While I do not necessarily agree with some of Vox's more puritan conservative/christian beliefs,

Puritan is not a word I would use to describe Vox. :)

> dh is wrong because the Trumpslide isn't a logical problem, it's a very difficult pattern recognition problem.

Exactly. And the pattern is resolving exactly according to the Nixon and Reagan landslides.

Now, dh is correct that there is an opposing pattern of increasing democratic constituents, but that will likely be balanced out by the defection of the working class democrats to Trump. If it isn't, things are going to get very interesting in the not too distant future.

Anonymous kfg November 01, 2016 2:13 PM  

@55: "I was going to object that there weren't any less savory fields. Then I thought about Econ."

Sociology, which invented anthro and has taken control of econ and psych.

Anonymous daddynichol November 01, 2016 2:30 PM  

Vox,

Congrats on work well done. It's good to be a part of the older Dread Ilk observing the continued success of you and our Dread Ilk brothers and sisters.

Blogger newanubis November 01, 2016 2:45 PM  

Knew I was losing my hair as it kept taking longer to wash my face. Same as I knew VP was growing year over year as it kept taking longer to get through all the comments.

Anonymous Dave November 01, 2016 2:53 PM  

Trump should get an assist.

Make Blogging Great Again

Blogger Yemi Fawehinmi November 01, 2016 3:22 PM  

Congrats Vox. Vox Popoli is the first site I read every morning; with several visits during the day.

Anonymous WaterBoy November 01, 2016 3:34 PM  

Mr. MantraMan @5: "Meh, but you don't attract much in the way of interesting trolls"

Even dull trolls serve a function. The smart ones eventually figure out that all they're doing is inflating the pageviews, and bug out. The dull ones keep popping up with new handles again and again and again...making no headway in promoting their own ideologies, but serving as amusing targets whilst helping to make Vox popular. Can you think of any better use for such critters?

Blogger JDC November 01, 2016 3:54 PM  

Congrats, and thanks for what you do. You've earned every ounce of success, which makes us dread and proud ilk.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) November 01, 2016 3:55 PM  

Can you think of any better use for such critters?

Compost everything?

Blogger Aeoli Pera November 01, 2016 4:20 PM  

Snidely Whiplash wrote:Aeoli Pera wrote:My expectation is for 0.0023 of a pony. Any day now.

Try the Swedish meatballs. I got them at Ikea.


Oh dear.

Blogger RobertT November 01, 2016 4:34 PM  

26. Sam the Man

Good to know. Well done. Who is dh?

Blogger Unknown November 01, 2016 6:32 PM  

October set a new traffic records for both VP - 2,615,169 Google pageviews - and VP+AG - 3,112,416

Glad to contribute about .007%. Fitting number too. The reading experience here is diametrically opposite of whatever, or that mammoth fatboy's blog, not that I go there much. Reading those is like searching for oats in horse manure: it annoys the horse and there are better ways to get your oats. Reading here is like looking for horse manure and finding oats: the porridge stinks but it keeps you going till lunch.

Naturally, 90% of all production here and there is degradable and will lead to malnutrition and disease if you haven't better fare.

Anonymous My Take November 01, 2016 7:16 PM  

It says much about the intelligent discourse found here and the fact that you refuse to back down from stating the truth. I think it also reflects an increase in the alt-right portion of the the populace that appreciates the encouragement and validation of their God given rights.

Anonymous URL IRL November 01, 2016 8:11 PM  

Congrats Vox, and long live the Ilk!

Blogger TarjaJu November 01, 2016 8:46 PM  

Found out about VP through reading SJWAL, I checked it out of curiosity, but only became a close-to-daily reader once I finally "met" you through a Stefan vid.

Anonymous Avalanche November 01, 2016 9:49 PM  

Congrats on amazing traffic, Supreme Dark Lord! I'm not surprised by the growth -- you are SUCH a beacon for those of us looking for an anchor for the oncoming storm! I'm denying despair. I'm preparing for a future that CAN be won -- or at least survived.

Alt Publisher (yay Castalia House! Maybe someday you'll write about where the name comes from?) Alt Tech, and (the current and future) Alt Media lead the way! I'm grateful to be a small part of the Ilk.

Blogger KRW November 01, 2016 10:00 PM  

Started reading Vox on WND back in ancient times. I enjoyed the WND reads for a long time. Then, over time, those reads became more and more sensationalistic. That began to turn me off but Vox was a shining light that kept me coming back. Then he left WND. I am not certain if he invited readers to his blog via his last WND OP or what, but I followed on over to here somehow. Since then my favorites folder for news sites and blogs has filled from top to bottom with the best of what I have gathered from Vox and the commentators. Looks like I will need to make folders within the folder soon. Anyway, this ride is tops for an all around topics of all kinds blog. This makes it my number one go to blog before I even consider anything else. That is cause Vox and the VFM and the Ilk and the Dread Ilk and all the regular commentators of all types most absolutely....have chili.

Congrats on the continually growing readership.

KRW

Blogger The Overgrown Hobbit November 02, 2016 1:41 AM  

Good on you. Reading this site has been an education.

Anonymous Bz November 02, 2016 12:35 PM  

I came her when I saw that SFWA had decided to expel an unacceptable human being, which made my spider sense tingle, and has stayed ever since. Initially for the SF and bugging Scalzi, then also because of the disastrous migrants ... but the whole thing sort of grows on you.

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