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Tuesday, November 01, 2016

ABC/WP has Trump +1

Donald Trump has leapfrogged over Hillary Clinton in the newest national ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll. Trump is now 1 point ahead of his Democratic rival, earning 46 percent of likely voters' support, compared to Clinton's 45 percent. This is a shocking reversal from just nine days ago, when Clinton was 12 points ahead. - Daily Mail
Amazing how all those independents and undecideds are suddenly making up their minds. Trump is already up in FL and OH. And as I said, once the polls show Trump up in PA and NC, the Trumpslide is on.

UPDATE: Speaking of North Carolina:
With a week to go until Election Day, Republican Donald Trump has seized control of a tight presidential race in North Carolina, according to an exclusive WRAL News poll released Tuesday. SurveyUSA polled 659 people statewide Friday through Monday who have already cast their ballots or are likely to vote in the election and found Trump with a 51 to 44 percent lead over Democratic rival Hillary Clinton. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points. In a WRAL News poll released three weeks ago, Clinton led Trump 46 to 44 percent.
UPDATE: A second NC poll has it tied, 44 Trump, 44 Clinton, 4 Johnson. This is also a significant change from polls which had Clinton +6 less than a week ago.

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165 Comments:

Blogger Iron Spartan November 01, 2016 4:49 PM  

With a +10 Democrat sample

Anonymous KPP November 01, 2016 4:52 PM  

My wife can't bring herself to vote for Trump and can't see why anyone else would either. She is incredulous when I predict a Trumpslide. Many of the people who polled for Clinton or as undecided feel dirty when thinking of voting for Trump because they have been told over and over that only bad people support him. But now they're seeing he's the only sane choice and they'll hold their noses and vote for Trump.

I'm voting for Trump, but I'm not holding my nose. Smells like potential to me.

Blogger James Dixon November 01, 2016 4:53 PM  

We still have a week to go. Don't count our chickens yet. Dh may not understand the psychology of American elections, but he's correct about the demographic tide. Everyone still needs to vote.

Anonymous Sam the Man November 01, 2016 4:53 PM  

The polls in NC now show Trump up:

http://www.wral.com/wral-poll-trump-charges-ahead-in-nc/16183780/

The above shows Trump up by 7

Anonymous Utah4Trump November 01, 2016 4:57 PM  

Who is dh?

Anonymous VFM #6306 November 01, 2016 4:57 PM  

Polls are like a gas gauge with the car turned off from July until election day. They give you a reading that has nothing to do with how much gas is in the tank.

Right before the election, the corrupt and lazy literati actually fire up the car and go, "Oh nuts. Trump's got a full tank after all."

Then they start reporting on magically-appearing gasoline.

Blogger SemiSpook37 November 01, 2016 4:59 PM  

@4

Was just about to mention that. PA may be a late bloomer, but the Commonwealth will bloom. The major factor that screws them up in Philthadelphia. Really should just let NJ annex there and be done with it.

Blogger maniacprovost November 01, 2016 5:01 PM  

Anecdotal data- I voted today at about 2:30 PM. I live near a rural town of 5000, with a high percent of blacks, possibly a majority.

In the middle of the workday, there was a line of white people, half of them on canes and walkers, and it was moving fast. I would estimate they were processing at least 60 - 100 people per hour when I went through.

Anonymous Patron November 01, 2016 5:02 PM  

I want to see what the bookies are saying. Last I checked, most bets were for Trump, but most of the money (and thus the odds) were pro-Clinton. Similar to Brexit... wonder if this is still the case now?

Blogger Zapp Brannigan November 01, 2016 5:03 PM  

@SemiSpook37

I've read that there is a transit strike going on in Philly. I'm not a PA resident, but I would assume a strike could depress turnout in a heavily blue city.

Anonymous Rather, Not November 01, 2016 5:04 PM  

Vox, your take on the FBI releasing the old Clinton bribery Marc Rich pardon investigation stuff?

Notable that Peter Kadzik, now Assistant Attorney General and signing letters to D Senators on DOJ/FBI behalf, was one of Marc Rich's attorneys when bribing for pardons, and James Comey was the prosecutor who decided not to prosecute that particular Clinton crime either. I wonder if that is a deep state feud, or a warning to the players. It means something that it is coming out now, but not sure what.

Blogger Robert What? November 01, 2016 5:05 PM  

I am voting for Trump, but before pridicting a Trumpslide, just remember that election and voter fraud are going to give Clinton at least a 5% edge. That is a sizeable handicap for Trump to overcome.

Anonymous WinstonWebb November 01, 2016 5:07 PM  

I have it on good authority that polls are not to be trusted.

Vote Trump, for the lulz!

Blogger Aeoli Pera November 01, 2016 5:07 PM  

She's lost favor. The danger of massive fraud is dwindling, they aren't trying to sell it anymore. The beast is going under the bus. If you're trying to game out cases, I'd do it with the assumption that TPTB have conceded the game to Trump and will move accordingly.

Blogger T-Rav November 01, 2016 5:11 PM  

Please let this be true. I want to see Hillary stand there on the stage Election Night and choke out her concession speech. I want to see Chuck Todd, Nora O'Donnell, Rachel Maddow, and all the rest sitting there in stunned disbelief. Of course, then I'll have to deal with the reality of Donald Trump being the Commander-in-Chief, but I'll worry about that later. I just want that one moment.

Anonymous Casual November 01, 2016 5:13 PM  

Proudly voted Trump in NC today. Early voting was surprisingly packed and the poll workers said it had been like that every day since voting started. Just looking around the crowds there were some obvious shitlib types sprinkled in, but I got the sense that most there were for Trump. I'm confident he'll take NC when Tuesday rolls around.

Anonymous Steve November 01, 2016 5:20 PM  

Early voting was surprisingly packed [...] I got the sense that most there were for Trump.

Sounds about right.

Polling was very busy on Brexit referendum day too. High turnout is bad news for the status quo. When more voters than usual are showing up, it means they want change.

Blogger Wrangler November 01, 2016 5:21 PM  

T-Rav, you are dead on. Don't have any idea what a Trump Administration will look like, but I don't really care. I want to see all the never Trump cuck Evangelicals cry, like Russell Moore. Just that moment would be worth it all.

Blogger Wrangler November 01, 2016 5:22 PM  

T-Rav, you are dead on. Don't have any idea what a Trump Administration will look like, but I don't really care. I want to see all the never Trump cuck Evangelicals cry, like Russell Moore. Just that moment would be worth it all.

Blogger Cataline Sergius November 01, 2016 5:23 PM  

It's almost a reflex at this point to say it's a long time until Election Day...but at this point it ain't.

These are the last polls that are going to be worth anything.

From now on, "...the polls accurately reflect the opinions of shut-ins with landlines who desperately want to talk to strangers."

From this point on the polls will have a 90% refusal rate. I am not buying that as statistically significant in a year like this.

Blogger Johnny November 01, 2016 5:25 PM  

I have come to believe that unless a person is #NeverHillary, they are ill informed or of unsound opinion. And while I don't idealize Trump, When it comes to self serving behavior, if anything he is better than former presidents Clinton, Johnson, and Kennedy. So what is this, "hold your nose and vote for him" stuff. I can't recall people commonly saying that about these previous presidents with their self serving private lives. So, what gives?

Anonymous SAK November 01, 2016 5:27 PM  

@15 do you know what will be better than her concession speech? Her allocution before sentencing.

Blogger Revelation Means Hope November 01, 2016 5:34 PM  

When I saw the polls shift to Trump +1, went immediately to "PredictIt" and checked the various election odds. It hadn't been fully updated with the shift in polls, or rather, people hadn't shifted their money.

There were still excellent odds to be had for "No" on Kaine being Vice President, and Clinton being +3.9% or less on 11/1 in the polls.

Heh. I expect to make some money on those two. Reading the comments on there, it is amazing how much Kool-ade the liberals have been mainlining.

Blogger Revelation Means Hope November 01, 2016 5:37 PM  

Seriously, I am so happy that in addition to being able to watch the massive triggering that a Trump victory will have with the overwhelming number of liberals here in the San Francisco area.....I also get to take their money for research purposes.

Blogger Tank November 01, 2016 5:39 PM  

NC - voted for Trump yesterday. First enthusiastic vote for me in a long, long time.

Anonymous Faceless November 01, 2016 5:40 PM  

@5

dh is a member of the Ilk who shows up frequently enough to be a regular. He takes a quantitative approach to things.

Blogger Salt November 01, 2016 5:44 PM  

SAK wrote:@15 do you know what will be better than her concession speech? Her allocution before sentencing.

I'd say the trap door being sprung followed by that sudden snap.

Blogger Silly But True November 01, 2016 5:47 PM  

@Rather, Not:

I think it lends additional support that TPTB are taking the gravy out f the train.

It is a reminder that they _already had_ their get out of jail card played. July was lagniappe if Clinton could have put her "wipe it with a rag" schtick" past the finish line.

Obama was annoyed his Administration was left to clean up her mess. And Obama's tolerance reached its limit.

The first signal was Josh Ernest reiterating Comey retains the President's support while simultaneously admonishing Clinton for causing the problem.

This release is signal to their side to back off Comey/FBI.

The plan for 2016 has been exposed, so best to call it a day.

Regroup. Buy more polling machine manufacturers. Get more illegals on the rolls. Buy more media companies: buy Gab, InfoGalactic, etc. Reinstate more prisoners' rights to vote. And then come out renewed the next time.

Silly But True

Blogger tz November 01, 2016 5:49 PM  

She's lost the mandate of heaven if she ever had it. She's had the mandate of hell for decades. She-Devil.
Will Bill engage in Sax while the capitol burns?

Anonymous RCFlyer November 01, 2016 5:53 PM  

I made a more detailed comment on the last thread, but what I'm seeing on Betfair Exchange looks exactly like Brexit betting. Huge bets on Clinton by big fish, which get nibbled away by tons of small bets by Trump punters. Trump won me thousands in the primaries, which winnings I rolled over to bet on him in the general. A bottle of Moet awaits Nov 8th.

Blogger dh November 01, 2016 5:53 PM  

We still have a week to go. Don't count our chickens yet. Dh may not understand the psychology of American elections, but he's correct about the demographic tide. Everyone still needs to vote.

If Trump wins, it will be because he is peaking at the exact right time. Many many many almost made's are almost made it's because they peaked just short of the right time.

Anonymous johnc November 01, 2016 6:02 PM  

My wife can't bring herself to vote for Trump and can't see why anyone else would either.

If you were the head of the household you would tell her who to vote for and she would obey you and that would be the end of it.

Anonymous BGKB November 01, 2016 6:05 PM  

My wife can't bring herself to vote for Trump and can't see why anyone else would either.

Tell her to do it so there are less moslems shooting up, with bullets, in gay bar bathrooms.

Who is dh? He played eeyore on Winnie the Pooh

m. The major factor that screws them up in Philthadelphia. Really should just let NJ annex there and be done with it.

Have Philly & Baltimore separate from their states to form a new state of gibsmedat.

Blogger Bard November 01, 2016 6:08 PM  

Yep

Blogger Bard November 01, 2016 6:09 PM  

What would you call their new capital?

Blogger Otto Lamp November 01, 2016 6:09 PM  

You had to go to a British paper to see the results of an ABC/Washington-Post poll?

Let me guess. In America it's buried, because it's good news for Trump.

Blogger Ezekiel November 01, 2016 6:14 PM  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-C55084B7A

The Donald is a-rising,
The Donald is a-rising,
The Donald is a-rising,
Day is a-breaking in my soul...

Blogger VFM #7634 November 01, 2016 6:18 PM  

The S&P 500 Index is predicting a Trump win:

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-01/one-poll-that-isn-t-going-clinton-s-way-is-the-u-s-stock-market

Anonymous 11/1 November 01, 2016 6:19 PM  

@2 @33

Trump hating Hillary voter wife is begging you to man up.

She doesn't hate Donald; she wants her own Donald, and she 100% certain wants to be Melania.

No, explaining about Muslims isn't the way. Use your chimp brain.

Blogger Robert What? November 01, 2016 6:21 PM  

As more and more people become convinced that Trump has an actual chance of winning, they will jump on the Trump Train.

Blogger CJ November 01, 2016 6:22 PM  

Donald Trump has leapfrogged over Hillary Clinton ...

Are there some Pepe fans over at the Daily Mail?

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 01, 2016 6:23 PM  

dh wrote:If Trump wins, it will be because he is peaking at the exact right time. Many many many almost made's are almost made it's because they peaked just short of the right time.
So the sentiment of the electorate move 10+ points in 4 fucking days? Bullshit. Do you always lie to yourself like that?

FFS, admit you were deceived by the polls, that the turnout models were wrong, and that the updated turnout models based on people who have actually already voted, are significantly more accurate and that Trump will win.

We told you this was the case 2 or 3 weeks ago, and you called us all stupid ignorant savages with no understanding of statistics or numbers.

Blogger JACIII November 01, 2016 6:23 PM  

Pro tip: Start listening to NPR. They are in a panic. Yummy salty tears!

Blogger JACIII November 01, 2016 6:25 PM  

Do keep in mind all the feigned glee the dem operatives demonstrated when Trump won the nomination.

Blogger Aeoli Pera November 01, 2016 6:29 PM  

Whose new capital? TPTB? My money's on a dual strategy: land in China to regroup while destabilizing and infiltrating Russia. China is too low-trust for their purposes, which means business is mercenary and therefore too expensive for parasites. Russia's immune system is strong now but will weaken with time as descendants forget what their elders knew.

Blogger Basil Makedon November 01, 2016 6:30 PM  

Looking at the 270 to Win Map right now. If I make everything battlegroundy that people say are even remote Battlegrounds I have the race at Clinton 203 to Trump 163.

Since the numbers in Ohio and Florida look good, I'll give Trump GA (16), OH (18) and FL (29). I'll give Clinton MN (10). GA on the theory that it's more red than FL.

It's now Clinton 213 to Trump 226.

Closer states to address: AZ, NC and UT (Thanks McMuffin). NC numbers that I have seen look ok and I don't think that Clinton can equal Obama in turnout or percentages. AZ is experiencing a nightmare of Obamacare. I'll slide those close states both to Trump. AZ (11), NC (15). I'll leave Utah off the table for now.

It's now Clinton 213 to Trump 252.

I'll give Clinton the free EV in Maine and Trump the free EV in Nebraska.

Clinton 214 to Trump 253.

From here you can see many more possible pathways for Trump to reach 269 or 270 votes. NH(4), NV (6), UT (6), CO (9), WI (10), MI (16) and PA (20) all are not considered. Multiple combinations of states will reach 17 EVs.

But, it should be noted that Except for NV and UT these are all regular DEM states now. Even if I give Trump NV and UT he would loose 273 to 275 and we'll be frantically reading up on faithless elector law unless he wins one of WI, MI, PA or NH. With NV and UT winning NH would send it to the House unless faithless electors.

Anonymous Praying for the Trumpslide November 01, 2016 6:32 PM  

@45, the new capital for the state that is made from Baltimore and Philthadelphia, which was gibsmedat. I personally like the name of dindunuthin' for the capital.

Anonymous A Most Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Deplorable Cents November 01, 2016 6:32 PM  

@38
That's the only poll I've been watching for weeks. Sorry, dh.

@40
"Preference cascade" in action. People who woulda voted for Mittens if he'd been worth voting for, will crawl over broken glass to vote for Trump.

Last Sunday talked with an elderly couple who recalled 1980 very well. "He's no Reagan, but this election is a lot like back then". Good enough for me.

Blogger Rick November 01, 2016 6:36 PM  

I was dreaming about the kind of wall Trump would build. And that it would have cafes on it. And American families would vacation there like it were Disneyland or Jurasic Park.

Blogger Otto Lamp November 01, 2016 6:48 PM  

FBI Surprises With Files on Clinton ’01 Pardon of Marc Rich

http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-11-01/fbi-surprises-with-files-on-bill-clinton-01-pardon-of-marc-rich

It's official, Obama has thrown Hillary under the bus.

Comey may have gone off on his own once (last Friday), but twice? No, no, no. There is no way this was released without approval from the top--from Obama.

For whatever reason, Obama has decided it is better that Hillary lose, and he has set the wheels in motion.

If true, this means all the Democrat vote fraud scheme will NOT go into motion. No inner city precincts with more votes than registered voters; no boxes of absentee ballots turning up at the last minute; no precincts with zero GOP votes.

Blogger OGRE November 01, 2016 6:48 PM  

@46 obviously he has to flip something that Romney didn't take. Switching FL, OH, Iowa and NV from blue to red puts Trump at 265. Just for the numbers game say he turns NH then we're right at 269, sending it to the House (not saying he'll take NH just hypothesizing). Now its no given Trump would win in the House but we'd have to put the odds on him for that with a 30-18-2 advantage.

So then the 1 free EV in Maine could push it over.

Otherwise yes he needs at least one of the regularly blue states such as PA, MI, VA, WI, CO or NM. Hes close enough in polls in several of those states to do it. As they say, look at where hes going, thats where he smells blood.

I think he takes PA and that seals the deal. If Clinton can't hold PA she has a real hard time winning.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 01, 2016 6:48 PM  

I was dreaming about the kind of wall Trump would build. And that it would have cafes on it.

"With blackjack. And hookers!"

When they first admitted Ohio was shifting to Trump about a month ago, I said watch PA, because when that falls, there won't be any pretending anymore. It was starting to look like they'd continue the 10-point push-polling right up to the election, but maybe they're starting to crack.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr November 01, 2016 6:53 PM  

@3 James Dixon is right. Don't get cocky, play like we're behind. Don't forget that Gore closed 4 points in as many days in November of 2000.

We don't want this to be close.

Blogger Hector Henry November 01, 2016 6:59 PM  

If you are in a swing state, consider writing in Bob Whitaker, a pro-White candidate.

A few votes for him will send a message to future pro-White candidates.

Blogger Wanda Sherratt November 01, 2016 7:02 PM  

44 - And all the feigned fear during the primaries. "Ooooh, we're so scared that Rubio might be the nominee!" Why anyone on the Right gives any credence to the supposed genuine secret thoughts of notorious liars is a mystery to me, but it happens every time.

Blogger Harold November 01, 2016 7:04 PM  

No early voting here. I'm part of the Gallup online survey. Just opened up their email and then went to their site and completed a presidential survey. Curious question. After I answered I was voting for Trump, the next follow up question was my vote a pro-Trump vote or an anti-Clinton vote. In my case, it is an anti-Clinton vote. I wonder if the Clinton voters get the same question....

Blogger Idunna-Practicallyperfect November 01, 2016 7:13 PM  

We drove from the coast of NC to the triangle yesterday, Trump to HRC signs 10:1.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 01, 2016 7:23 PM  

Stock jobbers leaning Trump that dog stock TSLA shedding points of late and it's a pure bubble and D fraud play

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 01, 2016 7:35 PM  

If I were the D party I would toss her, in the unlikely event she is elected there is already a huge built in opposition ready to pounce, and it is already taking large bites out of the legitimacy pie needed to govern

Blogger pyrrhus November 01, 2016 7:40 PM  

@54 That would be insane. Vote Trump, he's the only pro-White candidate in this election.

OpenID aew51183 November 01, 2016 7:40 PM  

Trump +1 in PA

https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/793566677883580416

Anonymous Broken Arrow November 01, 2016 7:46 PM  

Elon North Carolina poll (change):
Clinton 44 (-1)
Trump 44 (+5)
Johnson 4 (-5)

It appears that the theory of Trump supporters hiding in Gary Johnson is proving correct.

Anonymous Bobby Farr November 01, 2016 7:50 PM  

I love how the media still clings to the idea of a Trump win being a long shot when their own polls now put him at 275 electoral votes.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 01, 2016 7:51 PM  

Trump's ad here in Illinoistan is aimed at the independent voter. At Zerohedge they have an article up about Matthews chiding Trump for not saying or asking the voters if they are better off, but it seems Trump is asking that question.

Of course Trump stands little chance in Illinois but I assume they run ads out of Chicago for Southern Wisconsin

Blogger LES November 01, 2016 7:51 PM  

Will we hear this again?
Peter Jennings, shortly after the Republicans took control of Congress in 1994: "Imagine a nation full of uncontrolled two-year-old rage. The voters had a temper tantrum last week."

Blogger dh November 01, 2016 8:02 PM  

Amazing how all those independents and undecideds are suddenly making up their minds. Trump is already up in FL and OH. And as I said, once the polls show Trump up in PA and NC, the Trumpslide is on.

I am just curious when you think they would make up their minds?

Blogger dh November 01, 2016 8:04 PM  

Otherwise yes he needs at least one of the regularly blue states such as PA, MI, VA, WI, CO or NM. Hes close enough in polls in several of those states to do it. As they say, look at where hes going, thats where he smells blood.

He also must hold AZ, and that's looking very shaky right now.

Anonymous A Most Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents November 01, 2016 8:06 PM  

@43
Pro tip: Start listening to NPR. They are in a panic. Yummy salty tears!

Gee, I wonder if Jonah "I don't like populism" has bought a ticket on the Trump Train yet? Be a shame if he and Williamson got left behind.

More. Popcorn!

Trump 2016 for the LOLZ!

Anonymous BGKB November 01, 2016 8:07 PM  

But will they Phillysmelphia strike last more than a week?

What would you call their new capital? Corruptown, actually if NY shed NYC giving it to NJ, while picking up Philly and Baltimore you would better 3 states.

I was dreaming about the kind of wall Trump would build.

There would be driving ranges on top & it would have the worlds narrowest golf course.

Blogger Johnny November 01, 2016 8:08 PM  

I am just curious when you think they would make up their minds?

A chunk of it is fake. The polls tighten toward the end, always, regardless. I suspect also a bandwagon effect here. As Trump looks like a better shot, people drift in that direction. Plus because Trump has strong negatives, I would speculate a lot of would be supporters were holding off until they in effect, had to make up their mind.

Blogger dh November 01, 2016 8:12 PM  

So the sentiment of the electorate move 10+ points in 4 fucking days? Bullshit. Do you always lie to yourself like that?

FFS, admit you were deceived by the polls, that the turnout models were wrong, and that the updated turnout models based on people who have actually already voted, are significantly more accurate and that Trump will win.

We told you this was the case 2 or 3 weeks ago, and you called us all stupid ignorant savages with no understanding of statistics or numbers.


1. Hillary is still going to win. The paint is dry. My original prediction will probably still be right, though Florida may prove me wrong

2. Yes the sentiment of the electorate moves 10+ points in one poll in 4 fucking days. But not on average, in outliers. I can't understand where the idea that elections are totally static comes from. People, especially the great idiot class, root for candidate like sports teams. It is really, really, really stupid to rely on national polling at this point. At least at 60 days out, you have to start paying attention to state polling.

3. You seem to be under the impression that Trump has won and Hillary conceded. FFS, if Trump wins, it won't be a landslide, it will be a squeaker. If Trump wins, it will because of a few key states flipping. It will be a tactical victory, not proof of a strategy. It would be because Trump has the right combination of support at the right moment.

If the theory is that the polls are rigged but start getting closer as the election draws near, it's a bad theory, The charge in the WP article is closely correlated to events - the last time Trump was this close to Clinton was.. right around 9/11. Did anything happen around that time that might explain it? Clinton weak knees. Then, since then, the gap has widened.. were there any events that would explain that? Three debates where a majority think Clinton won, and Pussygate. Trump's polling right now reflects that events - namely wikileaks and the FBI - still have the ability to change the mind of low-information voters.

Blogger OGRE November 01, 2016 8:16 PM  

@67 and just as with AZ, MI and WI have Republican governors and Repub majority house delegations. Those aren't blue states by default anymore.

Blogger VD November 01, 2016 8:19 PM  

He also must hold AZ, and that's looking very shaky right now.

Arizona isn't shaky. He's been up most of the campaign and he's up now. He'll win it by 5+. RCP average is +1.5.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 01, 2016 8:19 PM  

So a week ago the polls were rigged to demoralize Trump supporters, this week they are rigged to buoy Clinton supporters

And the above post Clinton Won the debates, yes sir

Blogger Cail Corishev November 01, 2016 8:21 PM  

Trump +1 in PA

As the black guy says in Searching for Bobby Fischer, "There it is!"

Blogger LES November 01, 2016 8:22 PM  

Oregon, Washington and Colorado have vote by mail. People were using absentee ballots to avoid standing in line at polling places. The problem is that the post office becomes responsible for validating the voter rolls. Anyone can register to vote by mail at any address. Some people have registered their pets. The post office is required to deliver all mail as addressed unless there is a change of address on file, the carrier knows the person moved long ago or the mail is returned as unknown by the current residents. The post office does not process changes of address for some locations such as sororities, fraternities and retirement centers. The carrier has no idea who lives at such residences. The solution is to mail out ballots but require people to sign in, in person, at a polling location when they drop off their ballots. I do like vote by mail so I don't have to stand in line waiting for people who didn't come prepared to vote.

Blogger Junius Stone November 01, 2016 8:25 PM  

"Will we hear this again?
Peter Jennings, shortly after the Republicans took control of Congress in 1994: "Imagine a nation full of uncontrolled two-year-old rage. The voters had a temper tantrum last week."

Probably. Just point and laugh. It'll piss them off.

Blogger Chris Mallory November 01, 2016 8:25 PM  

Hector Henry wrote:If you are in a swing state, consider writing in Bob Whitaker, a pro-White candidate.

A few votes for him will send a message to future pro-White candidates.


It will depend on state law if it sends a message or not. In Kentucky, write in votes are not counted unless the Write in Candidate has filed papers with the Sec of State by the 4th Friday of October. Without doing that a write in vote is just a scribble on the ballot in Kentucky. Your state may vary.

Anonymous Bobby Farr November 01, 2016 8:25 PM  

And magically Georgia and TX are solid GOP states again according to recent polls. This is so transparent.

Blogger Anchorman November 01, 2016 8:28 PM  

OT:

Those Trump rallies sure got peaceful all of a sudden.

I think I should nominate James O'Keefe for a Nobel Peace prize, for his effort to ensure peaceful expression of political beliefs in the face of organized political violence by the incumbent party?

Anonymous BGKB November 01, 2016 8:28 PM  

I am surprised Michael Ramirez did a cartoon supporting TRUMP.
http://www.gocomics.com/michaelramirez/2016/10/25

Blogger Anchorman November 01, 2016 8:31 PM  

Trump +1 in PA

The officials say the SEPTA (mass transit) strike doesn't affect voting.

I don't know if they're right, but I can't see how it doesn't (other than folks not working and fraud).

Working folks will have longer commute times before and after work.

It will rest on voter enthusiasm and I'm not sure how enthused folks are about Hillary now.

Anonymous Hezekiah Garrett November 01, 2016 8:32 PM  

Look who sprung a leak!

https://youtu.be/ov5kvWSz5LM

Blogger Cail Corishev November 01, 2016 8:35 PM  

A few votes for him will send a message to future pro-White candidates.

Is the message, "If you play your cards right, you too could get a handful of write-in votes"?

Blogger Anchorman November 01, 2016 8:40 PM  

Who is Steve Pieczenik?

Blogger Lovekraft November 01, 2016 8:42 PM  

The democrats have spent everything in their arsenal, whereas it is a clear possibility that the democrat implosion will continue in the next week.

Blogger Anchorman November 01, 2016 8:45 PM  

Okay. Drudge headline:

DEVELOPING WASH POST LEAD WEDNESDAY: FBI SPOOKS GOV'T INSIDERS HELPING ASSANGE?

That type of headlines screams, "I'm off my rocker."

But he attributes the WashPost. So, it stands to reason that he has a source.

The video linked seems too far-fetched, though.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 01, 2016 8:47 PM  

The officials say the SEPTA (mass transit) strike doesn't affect voting.

It's amazing how many things don't affect voting. Candidates' positions on issues, debate performances, street violence, unemployment, scandals, crimes by a candidate, questionable health, a new working-class voting block emerging, high levels of enthusiasm and non-enthusiasm in different groups -- none of these things affect the vote, and the polls are there to tell us so. Nothing can change, all of Hillary's safe states are still safe -- except for the ones they've admitted aren't safe, but definitely all the others totally still are -- so go back to not caring now.

Blogger Mountain Man November 01, 2016 8:52 PM  

The tea leaves are showing what the future holds:
http://www.thepoliticalinsider.com/chris-matthews-endorses-donald-trump/

The SS Hitlery-Huma is taking on water so badly that even the rats have decided its in their best interest to jump ship before it goes down.

Anonymous Cadwallander J November 01, 2016 8:53 PM  

@dh - are you a Clinton supporter or is this a dispassionate analysis of polling patterns over the years? You've typically taken the leftist side, but as much as can be said of the left, you're honest. I'd be surprised to find you were "with her."

Blogger Stilicho November 01, 2016 8:55 PM  

What happened to Gab?

Blogger Anchorman November 01, 2016 8:56 PM  

Still works for me (gab)

Blogger Anchorman November 01, 2016 9:05 PM  

Drudge's WashPost link doesn't amount to anything.

Anonymous BGKB November 01, 2016 9:06 PM  

The officials say the SEPTA (mass transit) strike doesn't affect voting.

The Philly coroners office says that dying wont either.


Other PA news, despite a beer company supporting the Philly gay pride parade, dozens of gay bars boy cot it after owner endorses TRUMP. http://www.towleroad.com/2016/11/dozens-gay-bars-dump-yuengling-beer-owner-endorses-donald-trump/

In other words a list of bars that no one will be armed if a mad moslem attacks.

Blogger Anchorman November 01, 2016 9:14 PM  

I'm reminded of how well the boycott of Chick Fil A went.

Blogger Basil Makedon November 01, 2016 9:15 PM  

@89

Nothing wrong with dh, everything he says has logic behind it. On Nov. 9th we could all be eating crow with a side of humble pie. He thinks that we are in the linear approximation range of the multi-variable equation model.

Linear approximation works very well close to the point where you build your model. As you depart from that point, it starts to break down until you get to a point where it's broke.

VD thinks Trumpslide. dh thinks the 2012 model rules the day. I suspect that we are just enough outside the 2012 model that its wrong and Trump just makes it over the top.



Anonymous Hezekiah Garrett November 01, 2016 9:19 PM  

@84. I've heard of folks using these 'search engine's' to get answers to mundane queries. I've not tried them, but I hear they work.

Blogger Lazarus November 01, 2016 9:21 PM  

Isn't dh the guy that predicted Dewey would beat Truman?

Blogger Lazarus November 01, 2016 9:23 PM  

Basil Makedon wrote:Nothing wrong with dh, everything he says has logic behind it. On Nov. 9th we could all be eating crow with a side of humble pie.

Trump is not the movement. The movement pre-dated Trump. The election is about whether they want to do it the easy way, or the hard way.

Humans usually pick the hard way, cuz they are idiots.

Blogger D. November 01, 2016 9:24 PM  


Kate Bush - Cloudbusting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pllRW9wETzw

Blogger Kristophr November 01, 2016 9:29 PM  

Just in ...
Bill wasn't the only one visiting Pedo Island:
http://redstatewatcher.com/article.asp?id=46461

"The Plane! The Plane!"

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr November 01, 2016 9:37 PM  

I don't see this as a replay of 2012. Just about nobody was voting FOR Romney. It was all about Obama. This cycle, it's reversed.

Anonymous Andrew E. November 01, 2016 9:44 PM  

Whoa, dh doubles down again. Ballsy, but wrong. Shades of Dick Morris in 2012. Morris disappeared for a couple years after that.

Blogger Alexander November 01, 2016 9:52 PM  

Re: Georgia

Georgia is going to make a mockery of it being a 'tossup'. The island of white liberalism is Athens, and the rank-and-file there were for Bernie. No enthusiasm.

And the GOP party types are all going for Trump. I've seen people who are effectively the provincial GOPe big fish - the sort of people who the Bush's have dinner with when they're at Reynolds Plantation, who have Trump Pence signs up. Both before and after the attempted coup.

Black vote will be down, white vote will be up, and the would-be cucks will vote the party ticket, including Trump. It'll be great.

Anonymous rienzi November 01, 2016 10:06 PM  

Why don't Hillary people come out to her events? Her outdoor rally in Daytona only pulled about 900 people. Rally in Dade City, FL today couldn't have been more than 200 tops. Rally at Sanford, FL was held in a civic center with a capacity of 600. Such tiny venues. You would think that she would attract much larger crowds than that just of people coming to see a presidential candidate out of idle curiosity. Hardly anyone watches the you tube feeds. For her, what's the point?

Blogger Basil Makedon November 01, 2016 10:29 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Lazarus November 01, 2016 10:58 PM  

Don Trumpleone makes them an offer they can't refuse:

Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump on Tuesday urged early Hillary Clinton voters suffering from "buyer's remorse" to change their ballots in the few states that allow for it, The Hill reports.

Certain states do allow for absentee voters to change their minds after they cast their ballots. According to the Trump campaign, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota are the states that allow such a switch, with varying rules about the process.

"This is a message for any Democratic voter who has already cast their ballots for Hillary Clinton and who are having a bad case of buyer's remorse, in other words you want to change your vote: Wisconsin is one of several states where you can change your early ballot if you think you've made a mistake," Trump said Tuesday night at a rally in Eau Claire, Wisconsin.

"A lot of stuff has come out since you voted. If you live here, or Michigan, or Pennsylvania, or Minnesota, you can change your vote to Donald Trump," he added.

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY November 01, 2016 11:04 PM  

2. KPP November 01, 2016 4:52 PM
My wife can't bring herself to vote for Trump and can't see why anyone else would either.
Dude, don't tell me your ol'lady is gonna vote for da Kuntessa ? Please don't tell me that.

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY November 01, 2016 11:10 PM  

3. James Dixon
The wife and I voted last Wednesday. Trump, of course . the rest of the family voted early too. all Trump of course.
MAGA you libtard bitches !

Blogger SemiSpook37 November 01, 2016 11:20 PM  

@108

Early voting is going on here in MD. After wasting her primary vote (as she's registered as a Republican), my wife pulled the proverbial lever for Trump.

She said she felt dirty. I told her she did it for teh lulz.

Blogger DemonicProfessorEl November 01, 2016 11:32 PM  

In NC here - and while anecdotal, I can say that most of the signs I've seen here are Trump. Most of the bumper stickers - Trump. T-shirts? Trump. Not really any major harassment at the couple rallies I've been by (granted, heavy police and security presence).

I've seen maybe a dozen Hillary signs, maybe a couple stickers. The houses that had her signs, incidentally, were huge.

I know that's not "proof," but we have to go by the ratio that Cernovich and Molyneux have discussed - that for every outward supporter of Trump's, there's at least three silent supporters. I think the Trumpslide will be real.

Blogger Ken Prescott November 01, 2016 11:44 PM  

@84 "Who is Steve Pieczenik?"

A very odd guy.

He first rose to prominence as the co-creator of "Tom Clancy's Op-Center Series," the first of the infamous "Apostrophe Series" that had Clancy's name (and that was just about his entire contribution to the work) on the cover.

He wrote a couple of thrillers of his own that were . . . weird.

Blogger Steve November 01, 2016 11:44 PM  

The latest National Enquirer has a sordid tale of deceit and blackmail, with the headline, "WORSE THAN WATERGATE!". As that bastion of journalism informs quite a large percentage of 'voters', I think the TrumpSlide is building to a climax.

Anonymous Yay Trump November 01, 2016 11:47 PM  

The black vote is down too much to bring it home for Hillary unless and this is a big unless, there really are 10 million strong NeverTrumpers.

Anonymous Bobby Farr November 01, 2016 11:50 PM  

@109 what reason did she give for feeling dirty?

Blogger Cail Corishev November 01, 2016 11:51 PM  

Women are very herd-oriented, and the herd message coming through the media has been strident and consistent for months: Women Do Not Vote Trump. It's tough for them to buck a herd command that loud; it's impressive that he's doing as well as he is with them.

You would think that she would attract much larger crowds than that just of people coming to see a presidential candidate out of idle curiosity.

I've been wondering about that too. Bill and Kaine are even worse; they draw like an eighth-grade girls' basketball game. I'd think Bill would draw more hecklers than the total crowds he's been drawing. Where are the simple curiosity seekers, people who just want a chance to see how old a former president looks?

Ivanka Trump came to my small town and drew a crowd of 300, and I think they paid $100 to get in. So one candidate's daughter is more popular than the other candidate herself, but the race is still leaning the other way? Ooookay.

Anonymous Yay Trump November 01, 2016 11:53 PM  

Reagan lost the female vote. Trump will be all right even if he can't put up Reagan style numbers. In that at least, dh is right.

Blogger Steve November 01, 2016 11:57 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Anonymous Bobby Farr November 01, 2016 11:59 PM  

@113 I haven't seen it reported but most state polls are show Trump getting 1 in 4 or 1 in 5 blacks. Better if they stay home but they look to be less of a problem for Trump than past GOP candidates.

Blogger Steve November 01, 2016 11:59 PM  

You dadburn youngins with your newfangled contraptions. I'm still trying to figure out why those two ladies didn't use separate cups to eat their chocolate ice cream...

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY November 02, 2016 12:03 AM  

113. Yay Trump
I did my most unsciwentific survey with the niga's that live down here blast week, and I'm pretty sure I posted it here.

Hillary is as welcomed as a case of the clap with the nubians. SWhe don't stand a ghost's chance in hell with that bunch.

Anonymous Yay Trump November 02, 2016 12:16 AM  

Blacks are both staying home in larger amounts than for Obama and the ones who are showing up are going for Trump in 15%+ amounts. Dh is pretty unwilling to consider the early voting data since it doesn't make his case for him at all. Nor does polling.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 02, 2016 12:19 AM  

There's been very little talk about Trump's polling numbers with blacks, so I assume they're higher than expected. Ditto Hispanics. He can't do worse than Romney/McCain with blacks, because of Obama. And if he were doing noticeably worse with Hispanics, it'd be trumpeted everywhere, especially by the Hispandering cucks.

Blogger SemiSpook37 November 02, 2016 12:25 AM  

@114

She sort of bought in to the whole anti-Trump narrative, mainly based on what we've seen of him prior to the past couple of months. I told her it was better him than the REALLY disgusting critters that inhabit DC and show no signs of changing.

Anonymous Jack Amok November 02, 2016 12:27 AM  

Looking at the 270 to Win Map right now...

Damn, mis-read that as .270 Win Mag and got excited.

Anyway, remember that dh is a recovering - possibly backsliding - lefty. He hasn't been around here much lately, except for the polls, so don't know where his head or heart is at these days.

He's been wrong before. And right before. He'll be one or the other this time too! Maybe he's just hedging his bets - if Clinton wins, he can say "I told you so!" in the brief moments before the old crone starts a war with Russia and gets us all nuked. OTOH, if Trump wins, he eats crow, but at least he gets to live.

Ignore him (and everyone else) and vote Trump.

Blogger Harold November 02, 2016 12:32 AM  

Well, tomorrow will soon be here, with the supposed big big Trump dump that's supposed to make everyone go, "Ewww!". Wonder if it be as riveting as Monday's big NY Times story with 5 reporters that breathlessly reported the scandal that 25 years ago Trump legally filed taxes using legal deductions that the IRS accepted as legal. I'm anxiously awaiting the big revelation.

Anonymous Wyrd November 02, 2016 12:33 AM  

You dadburn youngins with your newfangled contraptions. I'm still trying to figure out why those two ladies didn't use separate cups to eat their chocolate ice cream...

Hillary and Huma, one cup.

Blogger Theproductofafineeduction November 02, 2016 12:39 AM  

Frankly I think this election is going to break the idea that we can trust the polls, especially when the pollsters are running results that contradict social media metrics.

Blogger Basil Makedon November 02, 2016 12:51 AM  

Ok, messed this up earlier, reposting cleaned up.

In a normal election you expect to see each party steal about 10% of the other party's vote -- let's call them cross-overs.

Here's what Roper's exit polling in 2012 showed about the candidates' respective cross-overs:

Obama: 92%/6%/45% D/R/I
Romney: 7%/93%/50% D/R/I

You can see the competing strategies of the candidates. Romney focuses on winning Ind.'s, which he does. He follows a McCain consultant strategy. Obama focuses on turnout, a Rovian or Bush II strategy. [Note: Bush II LOST Independent voters in the same Roper data in 2004. Kerry won 89% of DEMs; Bush II won 93% of GOP; this was a pure turnout play].

Look at the cross-tabs in the NC poll in 2016:

Clinton: 75%/5%/39% D/R/I -- this is very bad
Trump: 90%/23%/51% D/R/I -- this is very good

Trump gets the expected value of GOP voters -- he looses only 10%.
But look at the cross-over vote -- 23% v. 5% and Clinton's low percentage of Ind. 39%.

Even if that 23% is crazy and wrong, and the real number is half of that -- say 12% of DEM cross over then Trump is still getting roughly 3x the number of cross-overs as Clinton 15% v. 5%. This becomes a real challenge (not impossible) for a turnout strategy to overcome.

Can Clinton achieve a turnout win like Bush II and Obama? That seems questionable. African Americans are the low hanging fruit for DEMs. They are city dwellers by and large and therefore present a logistical edge and are so locked in that getting them to the polls is just dog-pilling in a way that suburban whites are not. In short, excellent rate of return on logistical investment.

However, she is not capable of driving that vote like Obama did in 2012, just simply not possible. The best GOTV effort can only reach so many people, the rest have to self-start. I don't think her GOTV vote is as good as Obama's and I don't think that she has that many self-starters.



Anonymous Bobby Farr November 02, 2016 1:06 AM  

@123 I just have a hard time figuring out people who have been voting Republican for 20+ years and are suddenly disgusted now.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 02, 2016 1:16 AM  

@dh,
Still no comment on the changing turnout models? The pollsters have even said that they are changing their turnout models based on surveys of people who have already voted.

You're supposed to be some kind of quant, but damn if I can see it.

Yay Trump wrote:Dh is pretty unwilling to consider the early voting data since it doesn't make his case for him at all. Nor does polling.
The polling does, if you completely ignore the quality of the polling and what the pollsters are themselves saying about the polls.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 02, 2016 1:19 AM  

Bobby Farr wrote:I just have a hard time figuring out people who have been voting Republican for 20+ years and are suddenly disgusted now.
It's about manners and feels for them. Trump makes them feel bad, and their friends don't like Trump and will think less of them if they admit supporting Trump. He's a powerful rich man who admits screwing beautiful women and That's not acceptable

Anonymous jOHN MOSBY November 02, 2016 1:20 AM  

A lot of us that has voted for the last 20 years have been disgusted with the choices we have had to make.
If you think that voting for the Pauls would have made a diff, survey says your fulla bulla.

Anonymous Yay Trump November 02, 2016 1:26 AM  

@130, sort of. The polling is showing Trump ahead in key states like PA, with double digit black support.

Blogger bob kek mando ( I are Spartacus ... and you can too! C'mon, give it a try, these crosses are way more comfy than they look ) November 02, 2016 1:31 AM  

Alex Jones is going bonkers. supposedly, they have exposed the software gimmick that Hillary is going to use the flip the vote:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z1n-aghgxoM


also, some supposed Deep State retired Nat Sec mucky muck is claiming a silent counter coup? what are they supposed to have on *Obama* to make him acquiesce to this?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N6RmqkkRgIg

Anonymous Robert November 02, 2016 1:44 AM  

@131
God forbid two men talk in private about women. Don't straight white men get enough hate from the left? Some people, I swear...

What they should really find 'disgusting' is gay pride parades and trannys and the mutilation of children. And the left demanding we accept all this as normal and feature them on TV/movies. And to teach children about them at school.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 02, 2016 2:03 AM  

Robert wrote:What they should really find 'disgusting' is gay pride parades and trannys and the mutilation of children. And the left demanding we accept all this as normal and feature them on TV/movies. And to teach children about them at school.
You hate-filled, transphobic, sexist racist homophobic shitlord. It's like you're literally Hitler.

Blogger Benjamin Kraft November 02, 2016 2:09 AM  

@136. Aw, spread some compliments my way. I feed off hate, and a full stomach always feels good.

Blogger Silly But True November 02, 2016 2:13 AM  

We're up to top kek plateau no. 34 now: https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sb92Zwfujb4

Blogger Snidely Whiplash November 02, 2016 2:31 AM  

Benjamin Kraft wrote:Aw, spread some compliments my way. I feed off hate, and a full stomach always feels good.
You're so sexist, you disagree with the Saudi religious tribunal that determined today that women qualify as mammals and are therefore due the kindness and respect one would express for a goat or camel.

Anonymous Just another commenter November 02, 2016 2:37 AM  

@138 - debunked. Or, rather, it wasn't an endorsement, it was a short clip on "why doesn't Trump just say [xxxx]". But as rhetoric to convince the low-info voter ("see, even Mathews gets it!"), it's great.
Full Clip Here.

Blogger Thucydides November 02, 2016 2:43 AM  

I'm willing to bet that once you factor out the oversampling and other trickery, EVERY poll has always shown the two within a 1-2% points of each other the entire time.

The polls and complicit media have called the wrath of the classical gods by their Hubris, and I hope the accounting in the next four years is messy and public.

Anonymous 11B November 02, 2016 2:43 AM  

This can't be true. MSNBC is claiming 28% of early GOP voters in FL have voted for Hillary. It is their lead story.

Blogger praetorian November 02, 2016 3:09 AM  

You seem upset, dh. There is no need to be upset.

Shh, only Trump now, shh.

Blogger Benjamin Kraft November 02, 2016 3:20 AM  

@141. I'm willing to bet Hitlliary hasn't been within 5 points of Trump's superior position for a month or more.

Anonymous One Deplorable DT November 02, 2016 5:24 AM  

ABC/WP has Trump +1

Adjusted for biases in their model Trump is up by...add the 3...divide...carry the 1...

9,001 points

What are the odds that Hillary will forgo a concession speech when she loses? I know this assumes she won't be arrested before Nov. 8, but in that case?

Anonymous One Deplorable DT November 02, 2016 5:29 AM  

@144 - Shh, only Trump now, shh.

Thanks for the laugh. I read that and pictured Harambe softly cradling dh's head and whispering: "Shhh...no more tears...only Trump now."

Surrounded, of course, by all the other angel gorillas.

Blogger dh November 02, 2016 6:56 AM  

Snidley--

I actually haven't seen anything about the models being changed based on who has already voted. My opinion on this has been it's mostly a fools errand, because the people who vote early are the people who are most dedicated, and from that, you can't infer anything much about the general election. If some pollster thinks they have an isometric model to apply that to the larger electorate, it is news to me, but something I would read more about. That is sort of a holy grail. The GOP would be smart to give up on some of the other restrictions they want, and replace early voting with vote-by-mail which can be changed in person on election day. This election is demonstrating why early-voting is a bad idea. There are likely votes that have already locked in that he still could have converted. Not many, but could be important.

Arizona isn't shaky. He's been up most of the campaign and he's up now. He'll win it by 5+. RCP average is +1.5.

He needs to if he pulls out a win. He needs all the Romney states. PA is important, ME second district is important. NH is also important, but that's fading.

The biggest wildcard for me right now is what Wikileaks will release this Friday or over the weekend. Trump needs one last big news cycle if he wants to make a real shot at not playing the Bob Dole of this election. Something that will dominate the news cycle over the weekend and into Monday.

Blogger dh November 02, 2016 7:01 AM  

Thanks for the laugh. I read that and pictured Harambe softly cradling dh's head and whispering: "Shhh...no more tears...only Trump now."

This is what's really funny to me. There is a total inability for almost everyone, including even those who post here, to separate data-based analysis from preference from wishful thinking.

I.e. if I project Trump will lose handily in the election it is because I am anti-Trump or pro-Clinton, not because I have looked at the data and made a judgement that is based on facts.

This type of lazy intellectual-free thinking is why Romney was the last person in America to know he wasn't going to be President.

My projection that Clinton is going to win is because the demographics are almost fully baked against any Republican winning the White House. The road to win is incredibly narrow for a Republican, but very wide for a Democrat. That's not anger or angst or butt-hurt, that's just the facts of the country we actually live in, not a projection of the country I want to live in.

The only chance that Trump has to win is solely because Clinton is the 2nd worse major party candidate since at least Goldwater. (If she loses, she will take over that #1 slot for sure).

Blogger Raymus November 02, 2016 7:16 AM  

This can't be true. MSNBC is claiming 28% of early GOP voters in FL have voted for Hillary. It is their lead story.

The 'polling' company, TargetSmart, is essentially the DNC. Fake data.

Blogger AMDG November 02, 2016 7:32 AM  

Ambush killings of two police officers yesterday will increase turnout.

Anonymous mature-Craig November 02, 2016 8:21 AM  

What they should really find 'disgusting' is gay pride parades and trannys and the mutilation of children. And the left demanding we accept all this as normal and feature them on TV/movies. And to teach children about them at school.


I am able to have a level of compassion for young "homosexuals" and I would love to try to help them more understand that that was not God's plan for them..

but as far as force feeding an agenda on people that never asked for it, and don't want it, thru the entertainment media, invading peoples eyes and ears daily, ... that's a big problem.

Anonymous liljoe November 02, 2016 8:49 AM  

@120 Hillary Hotsauce, the most embarrassingly lame attempt at pandering by a politician I've seen in my life. "is it working?" I don't think so

Anonymous mature-Craig November 02, 2016 9:03 AM  

double digit African American support for Trump awesome,.. game changer, trend changer, kind of everything actually, watch how fast the white democrats run away from all things democrat without the Africans

Anonymous mature-Craig November 02, 2016 9:15 AM  

re 9:03 ;; sctually I better not get too excited about that, stuff like that can have unintended consequences that nobody can foresee, but I have a hunch its a good thing if there is a shift in the African AMerican vote from democrat to republican, and Trump is just the man to do it.... also I wanted to apologize to white democrats I shouldn't judge them like that, I have seen some honor from them once in a while

Blogger Teri November 02, 2016 9:55 AM  

And your mail carrier can decide not to deliver your ballot, as I had happen last election. He decided on his own that I'd moved. No problems since I went in and complained to the supervisor. We take our ballots to a drop box.

Blogger Basil Makedon November 02, 2016 11:22 AM  

@148 I thought that was funny as well. I have no beef with you, you are perfectly logical and I fully recognize that I could be engaging in wishful thinking, letting my confirmation bias run rampant.

We don't know what reality is up to, none of us. Best we can do is guess. Here's what Trump/Pence Clinton and Kaine are doing the next couple days:

Up through Nov. 3
Trump -- FL, FL, FL, FL, PA, NC, NC
Pence -- AZ, NM, CO, IO, MI, PA

Up through Nov. 8
Clinton* -- AZ, NV, IO, NC, PA, MI, NYC (obviously because this is headquarters)
Kaine* -- IO, IO, AZ, AZ, FL

* doesn't count the list of surrogates, like Bill C., Chelsea C., Barack Obama, Sanders, etc.

Trump and Pence don't post their schedules as far in advance as Clinton's team.

Ideally, Team Trump wouldn't be campaigning in FL, NC or AZ; however, ideally, Team Clinton wouldn't be spending time in PA or MI. It suggests a slightly expanded map.

Anonymous Yay Trump November 02, 2016 12:07 PM  

I think it's like Brexit. Older whites are turning out. dh can ignore early voting, but it's always been the preferred voting tool of the exact demographics he says have already won. Only half of Hispanics vote on election day, of the ones who bother. I think it's just residual liberal, not any kind of personal issue for or against Trump.

Blogger praetorian November 02, 2016 3:38 PM  

The only chance that Trump has to win is solely because Clinton is the 2nd worse major party candidate since at least Goldwater. (If she loses, she will take over that #1 slot for sure).

Shh.

Anonymous dh November 02, 2016 4:41 PM  

I think it's like Brexit. Older whites are turning out. dh can ignore early voting, but it's always been the preferred voting tool of the exact demographics he says have already won
Difference is: Brexit is a single election; next week there will be 52 of them. Brexit was not polled incorrectly, it was analyzed incorrectly by wishful thinking do-gooders.

Early-voting has always been the tool of the most motivated. The data for early voting is in my opinion inconclusive, and fairly fact free.

Blogger Tom Kratman November 02, 2016 5:50 PM  

Cross-posted from FB:

Folks, a little something to cheer you up. Right now, the election is basically tied. My counting method, which I've discussed herre before, gives a slight popular vote lead to Trump. That's all good.
But now, for icing on the cake, imagine Hillary's sheer psychic anguish at this very moment. Think of the rancid twat rolling on the floor, frothing at the mouth, and then rolling over and beating her fists and smashing her toes into the carpet, shrieking that, "It's not FFFAAAIIIRRR!!! How will I ever get an unlimited supply of underaged girls for Bill and I if I'm not PPRREESSIIDDEENNTT?!?! It's not FFFAAIIIRRR!!! WHAAAAAAA!!!!"
And now imagine the anguish of the elites who see their corrupt gravy train slowing to a stop.
Dunno about you, and especially not you female types, but the thought gives me a just _vibrating_ erection.

Blogger James Dixon November 02, 2016 7:37 PM  

> The only chance that Trump has to win is solely because Clinton is the 2nd worse major party candidate since at least Goldwater.

Goldwater was not a lousy candidate. Kennedy had been assassinated and Johnson had finished out his term and was running for re-election. There was no way any republican was going to win.

Blogger bob kek mando ( I are Spartacus ... and you can too! C'mon, give it a try, these crosses are way more comfy than they look ) November 02, 2016 7:51 PM  

157. James Dixon November 02, 2016 7:37 PM
There was no way any republican was going to win.



hush, you.

dh is busy telling us how irrational WE are.

listen.

and learn.

Blogger Basil Makedon November 02, 2016 10:08 PM  

Has there ever been an American candidate so in the mold of Lucius Sergius Catalina than Hillary Clinton? Chirac and Berlesconi (IIRC), but not an American that I can recall. Does that cast Trump as Cicero?

Et Vixerunt!

Anonymous Yay Trump November 03, 2016 12:16 AM  

early voting wasn't a "tool" until the D's realized they could use it to get low-motivation groups out by spreading the push out over weeks or in a few states months. it's the opposite of something that very motivated voters use. those voters vote more often, in off-year elections. don't be ahistorical, dh, if you're going to frame yourself as being logical and fact-based.

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