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Monday, November 07, 2016

Battleground states

A perusal of the state polls shows that the crucial states tomorrow, in declining order of importance to Trump, will be:
  • Ohio
  • Florida
  • North Carolina
  • New Hampshire
  • Pennsylvania
  • Virginia
If Trump doesn't win Ohio or Florida, he probably loses. As he takes those states and more, he wins. The victory line is somewhere between New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. So, let's see where the polls are in each of them, the latest poll, the current RCP average, and the RCP average one month ago. I'll update this when RCP updates later today; that will also help us see what the trend is for the final stretch.
  • OH: +7 +3.5 (+2.2)
  • FL: +4 +0.2 (-2.8)
  • NC: TIE +1.4 (-1.3)
  • NH: -1 -0.6 (-6.0)
  • PA: TIE -2.4 (-6.0)
  • VA: -6 -4.3 (-7.0)
The month-long trend is strongly positive for Trump. Note also, the latest polls tend to be better than the RCP average, which includes polls as old as October 26th. (Update: the most recent NC poll was negative, but the two before that were strongly pro-Trump and that increased the pro-Trump average.) The trend at the state level in the battleground states continues to move Trumpward, perhaps not as strongly as we'd like to see for a definite Trumpslide, but certainly in the right direction.

The only real cause for concern at the state level is Florida, but the abrupt and sudden jump of Hillary to her highest level of support throughout the entire campaign at the same time it is falling elsewhere is not very credible and hints at pollster shenanigans. I have no doubt that a closer analysis of the sampling will reveal unlikely anomalies.

Other good signs are that some of the supposed battleground states are now solidly pro-Trump.
  • AZ: +5 +4.0 (+3.0)
  • GA: +2 +4.6 (+4.8)
  • NV: TIE +2.0 (-1.8)
In any event, there is no cause for despair. If the pollsters are putting ANY amount of weight on the scales in Hillary Clinton's favor, and we have very good reason to believe they are, then Donald Trump will win without much difficulty tomorrow. If the pollsters are playing it entirely straight - which I do not believe for one single second - then it's going to be close and could go either way depending upon enthusiasm, turnout, and fraud. So, go out, do your part, and let the chips fall where they may.

Axiom Strategies takes the polls at face value, of course, and reaches a similar conclusion:

We’re looking at a margin of error race in seven of the eight battleground states we surveyed. Either one of these candidates could realistically run the table in these seven states. The big question is if Donald Trump can mobilize his voters and get them to the polls, if he can’t then he will lose,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group

The three states to watch early are Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. If VA is "too close to call", that is an excellent sign for Trump. If NC is too close to call, that is a potential cause for concern. If Virginia, Connecticut, or Maine goes Trump, the Trumpslide is on. Keep in mind that NC closes at 7:30 PM, half an hour later than VA and FL, so it probably won't report quite as soon.

If Clinton wins VA, Trump wins NC, and Florida is too close to call, the next big indicator is PA, where the polls close at 8 PM. If that goes Trump, he wins. If it is "too close to call", that is also a good sign.

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108 Comments:

Anonymous Hillary Clinton November 07, 2016 6:10 AM  

Ugggg... yeah... I think... yeah

I just shit myself again.

Blogger Stilicho November 07, 2016 6:16 AM  

Dude, we KNOW that the pollsters are over-estimating the historical democrat voter affiliation (0 to 5 points) by between 50 and 100 percent. When I adjusted ABCs infamous Hillary 12 pt lead poll to historical ranges (per Gallup), the result was a Trump win. And that was weeks ago. If I can get the voter breakdown on a recent national poll, I'll do it again today.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist November 07, 2016 6:21 AM  

Michigan. Trump has a real shot at peeling that state off. If he wins a rust belt state other than Ohio--which I'm telling you he will win Ohio-- it will be Michigan.

Even Nate Silver admits that Obama won't get the 2012 turnout numbers Obama got. That hurts in Florida and NC where all indicators (comparing current EV and AB numbers to 2012) point to Trump winning them.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr November 07, 2016 6:24 AM  

I'll settle for a win. Even by the thinnest of margins. And have been praying hard for it, as I fear for the Republic otherwise.

Blogger Bob Loblaw November 07, 2016 6:27 AM  

Fraud. That's the key variable here.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr November 07, 2016 6:28 AM  

Florida is interesting. The analysis over at www.strata-sphere.com shows equal turnout for the GOP and Dems in early/mail-in voting. Which he thinks points to Trump carrying FL.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist November 07, 2016 6:29 AM  

Oh, and Hillary stooge Nate Silver is now conceding that Florida will go red this year. Richard Baris, a pollster who has been polling Florida for months, said yesterday that Trump is doing far better than Romney did in early voting in 2012 and Clinton is lagging behind Obama's '12 numbers. Obama only won Florida by around 75,000 votes.

Blogger Ezekiel November 07, 2016 6:39 AM  

Heard that there's been a huge spike in black early-voting in Florida over the weekend, which may pull down his chances there...

Or maybe, assuming it's anything other than massive voter fraud, it'll help him; I still have trouble believing that all the Black church-ladies who supposedly make up the backbone of the Dem early vote, are going to be enthusiastic putting someone in the Oval Office who has literal Satanists in her inner circle.

God, I wish I could have heard their pastors try to cover for that one.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist November 07, 2016 6:40 AM  

The big question is if Donald Trump can mobilize his voters and get them to the polls, if he can’t then he will lose,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group,

Yeah, and the same thing applies to the Lizard Queen as well. And I think Trump voters are more motivated.

But they always say the DNC ground game is top notch. Repubs can't compete with it. We shall see tomorrow.

Blogger Ezekiel November 07, 2016 6:41 AM  

Bob Loblaw wrote:Fraud. That's the key variable here.
I've been saying for several months that the results in Pennsylvania are going to good for letting us know who the Mafia plans to bat for this cycle.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 07, 2016 6:44 AM  

The big question is if Donald Trump can mobilize his voters and get them to the polls, if he can’t then he will lose,” said Titus Bond, Director of Remington Research Group

Which is why the entire strategy of the left, from Hillary's TV ads to the shills who show up here, is to demoralize and discourage us. They want us to feel like we have to vote for Trump, not want to, because if that's the case, we'll be more likely to skip it and less likely to encourage others. That's what they assume, anyway.

That's why we're going to keep getting guys saying, "I'm totally with you, but I'm nervous, so let's make this thread a discussion of how Trump really can't win." Don't get suckered into it, guys. There's nothing to be gained by it.

Anonymous Bobby Farr November 07, 2016 6:46 AM  

The rust belt state polls are a mystery to me. I have a hard time believing Trump is only getting 2-3% more than Ryan and Romney in these states. Perhaps I underestimate the degree that they're cucked. Black turnout should be down, Trump's message of economic nationalism is tailored for these areas. These states are still white enough for whites to control the outcome. I would have expected him to be leading with whites by more than the single digits shown in the polls.

Blogger Mr Traumaboyy November 07, 2016 6:47 AM  

On the eve of the Clinton/Bush election I remember Paul Harvey discussing the options. His advice at the end was....PRAY!!! Seems even more important now!!

Blogger Cicatrizatic November 07, 2016 6:47 AM  

As of this morning, the final numbers on Florida early voting + absentee ballots are in: Democrats hold just a 0.6% advantage in ballots returned, which is far behind their lead of 3.2% after early voting ended in 2012 (Obama only won FL by 0.9% in 2012). The Florida polls have Independents going to Trump by 7-10 points, so when you allocate Independents, Trump is likely winning, even in the early voting. There will probably be about 2.5 million votes on election day in FL, and YouGov has Trump +16 with Floridans who plan to vote on election-day.

The analysts like Jon Ralston who are declaring victory for Hillary in NV are completely forgetting to allocate cross-over vote and Independents. The Nevada polls show Trump with 14% of NV Democrats and a +12 advantage with Independents. When you plug those numbers into the NV early vote - even with the Democrat advantage in ballots returned - Trump is ahead. Of course that is contingent on the polling cross-tabs being accurate, but I think Trump will win NV narrowly. What's astonishing is these "experts" making final state predictions simply by crudely comparing D ballots returned to R ballots returned, WITHOUT allocating Independents.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist November 07, 2016 6:47 AM  

Trump did a heavily attended Midnight rally last night in Virginia. The dude did 5 RALLIES in 5 different states! Say what you will, he isn't coasting like Romney did. He is fighting to the end.

I wonder how many naps Hillary took yesterday?

Oh, and the crowd at that Michigan rally was massive. Even the media reported on the "oceans of people" there, which is why I wonder if Michigan might end up being the "Trump" card so to speak.

Anonymous Steve Lee Roth November 07, 2016 6:56 AM  

Clinton is so confident of victory she and Obama are still campaigning in... Michigan.

Which is supposed to be a safe state for her.

Looks like voters are thinking might as well Trump. Go ahead and Trump!

Blogger Cataline Sergius November 07, 2016 7:01 AM  

Michigan. Trump has a real shot at peeling that state off. If he wins a rust belt state other than Ohio--which I'm telling you he will win Ohio-- it will be Michigan.

Trump agrees. He's been barnstorming the hell out of Michigan for the past two days.

I'll be going to his rally tonight in Grand Rapids, both the man himself and Mike Pence are going to be there.

Anonymous SciVo de Plorable November 07, 2016 7:01 AM  

Trump will win all of those and Oregon and Minnesota too.

The good and bad of predicting is that your mental models can get proven wrong, which is awesome -- that's how you learn -- and it's also painful.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist November 07, 2016 7:03 AM  

Richard Baris, the People's Pundit, said this a bit ago:

"NC & FL are out of reach for her. They are going to Trump. The race is NH, NV, CO, MI & PA."

He doesn't even mention OH because it is Trump's. Notice how you never hear the "Ohio is the bellwether state! Whoever wins it wins the election! True since the 1960's!" stuff from the media this year? Because they know Hillary won't win it this year.

Anonymous Bobby Farr November 07, 2016 7:04 AM  

Trump at +2 in the just released IBD poll. I think that is his best performance in that poll.

Blogger David Power November 07, 2016 7:08 AM  



First they Rigged the Demographics,
So the White vote would always fail.
Then they Rigged the Dept of Justice,
To keep her out of jail.

Then they Rigged the Primaries,
Making Bernie look none too smart.
Rigging each and every debate,
With suprise questions - learnt by heart.

Then they Rigged the Media,
Rigged it with creeps and trolls.
Then Rigged their corrupted Pollsters,
Who Rigged their crooked Polls.

But after they rigged the entire system,
They're shocked she's just 1 rigged point ahead.
For now they know they've backed a lame duck,
And what's more, they know that duck - is dead!

Ok, so it needs some work, but still not bad for a deplorably poorly educated irredeemable.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 07, 2016 7:14 AM  

Yeah, a couple months ago, OH was called a swing state, and now they have it in the Trump column, and it got there with almost zero fanfare. (I remember one article, probably from a pro-Trump source, about Hillary scaling back her OH effort, presumably concending it.)

Back then, there were "as OH goes, the nation" articles. Not anymore! Even as the state they had been calling the one to watch slipped into the Trump column, they continued to preach the same despair nationally.

Blogger Cetera November 07, 2016 7:17 AM  

The elites and MSM poisoned their own well with all their shenanigans and polling fakery/fraud. They "fixed" things so much they started to believe their own lies. They no longer know what the true numbers are. They think they do, but they aren't perfectly certain. They are in the dark as much as we are.

We'll see what happens. I think Trump's internal polling is most likely the most accurate, as is most things on Trump's team. It's what happens when you hire the very best and brightest.

Happy Monday! Happy Voting Day Eve! Happy Trump Day Eve Eve!

Blogger Ken Prescott November 07, 2016 7:19 AM  

Steve Lee Roth wrote:Clinton is so confident of victory she and Obama are still campaigning in... Michigan.

Which is supposed to be a safe state for her.

Looks like voters are thinking might as well Trump. Go ahead and Trump!


That. Was. Fracking. AWESOME!

Blogger Zach November 07, 2016 7:21 AM  

Obama is campaigning in Ann Arbor this morning.

This more than any media poll tells me Michigan is in play.

Blogger Derrick Bonsell November 07, 2016 7:37 AM  

I think the polling is wrong. I don't see how Trump can lead by 5 in NC and still be down nationally. Romney only won by a narrow margin there.

Either the state polls are undercounting Clinton or the national polls are undercounting Trump. I see no reason for massive turnout in safe blue states, which I Clinton needs to have to hold on the national vote total if the battleground states are really that good for Trump. Trump has a 2 point lead in NH, which has only gone red once since 1988. Ominously that was during 2000...

Speaking of 2000, Silver thinks there's a strong possibility of Trump narrowly reaching 270 but losing nationally. I don't know how likely that is but it's going to be a very tumultuous situation. The left is likely to riot and protest if he wins and if he's seen as illegitimate... Though maybe if that happens we see faithless electors put Clinton over the top. For the sake of democracy that is...

Blogger Stilicho November 07, 2016 7:49 AM  

Ohio went to Trump with Kasich actively campaigning against him.

Anonymous Bobby Farr November 07, 2016 7:58 AM  

Remember that it is very important to gloat after Trump's win, as a celebratory precursor to purging cucks and boycotting/deporting leftists. And you will want to be prepared for wildings if you live in a vibrant area.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 07, 2016 8:12 AM  

I think the polling is wrong. I don't see how Trump can lead by 5 in NC and still be down nationally.

A theme of this election is that whenever they "zoom in" closer to the voters, Trump does better. So when they just poll blacks, he does better than expected. A recent poll of Catholics had Trump up 20, which is massive (Obama was +5 and +2, IIRC). And that was before the satanism stuff really got rolling. Axiom's polls of individual representative counties lean Trump's way, sometimes bigly. The only exception was women, and "women" is a pretty large group, plus "women hate Trump because sexism" is the #1 point of their Narrative that they have to bolster, and even that has been cracking lately.

And yet they kept claiming pretty much the same Hillary leads nationally. It hasn't added up for a while.

Blogger Marty November 07, 2016 8:14 AM  

GOTV for Republicans is based on enthusiasm - either for their candidate or against the opposing candidate, which in either case should be good for Trump. GOTV for Democrats is about hand holding and giving out free shit. The GOTV effort for people who wouldn't otherwise go to the polls. I believe Trump people are the self determinant types that will crawl across broken glass in driving snowstorm to vote for him, so no real GOTV effort is needed, while the Dems have to give out free beer and shiny stuff to get their people to the polls.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 07, 2016 8:17 AM  

Remember that it is very important to gloat after Trump's win,

Oh, I don't think you have to worry about that. The Cubs' celebration will look like a kid's birthday party in comparison.

Of course, the claims that Trump will take us back to some kind of extra-fascist version of 1950 where women aren't allowed outside the house and lynchings are common is a liberal/cuck fantasy, but it's going to be fun making them pee their pants over their own irrational fears for a while.

Blogger Shimshon November 07, 2016 8:19 AM  

@Cail has the satanism/pedo (I'd say it's a single entity of evil, not two distinct issues) stuff really gotten traction? It seems to still have limited exposure, although really to explode at any moment.

Blogger Ransom Smith November 07, 2016 8:22 AM  

As a Virginia resident, I'm going to gamble and say the Commonwealth goes Trump.

NoVA will go Spirit Cooking. But almost all the rest goes Trump. Richmond needs high black turnout and won't get it. Tidewater has lots of black and Navy residents. The Navy boys in Norfolk are going to go Trump. So overall, I think he wins here.

Anonymous FL Panhandler November 07, 2016 8:27 AM  

Keep in mind that NC closes at 7:30 PM, half an hour later than VA and FL, so it probably won't report quite as soon.

Please, please, PLEASE - also keep in mind the time warp west of Tallahassee. FL won't "close" until the panhandle finishes at 1900 local, which is 2000 (8 PM) eastern. With the exception of Leon county (Tally / FSU), the I-10 corridor is a solid block of GOP voters.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 07, 2016 8:29 AM  

Shimson, I think it's chipping away at the Catholic and Hispanic (mostly Catholic) vote; at least that's where I'm seeing it. A lot of people aren't going to talk about it, because they don't want to be called crazy. (Somewhere between 1/3 and 1/2 of people believe in UFOs, but most of them don't post to social media about it.) But they're seeing it, and it's still making them think twice about Hillary, or about wasting their vote that could go to stop her.

Blogger Derrick Bonsell November 07, 2016 8:32 AM  

A 5 point NC lead but losing nationally is possible I suppose but I don't like it, especially when NH supposedly is going from +5 Obama to +2 Trump. If it's legit, why isn't this swing happening anywhere else?

Anonymous George November 07, 2016 8:45 AM  

Leftists think Trump is Satan, while Hillary actually bows down and worships Satan.

We live in the Kali Yuga.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist November 07, 2016 8:45 AM  

A 5 point NC lead but losing nationally is possible

Please look at the raw data in some of these national tracking polls. They use D+8 and D+10 samples, or D+ reweighted samples and add some data manipulation, For instance, the ABC tracking poll, when you dig into it, has this: "For landline respondents, interviewers ask to speak with the youngest male or youngest female at home." Yeah, okay.

The RCP is an average of several polls, some that are outright run by leftists. I am convinced that the reason most of the polls use such large D+ samples is to keep Clinton's national numbers looking higher.
Gotta keep the narrative going.

Blogger Timmy3 November 07, 2016 8:47 AM  

VA has the felon vote. 60K pardoned by Clinton's handmaiden governor.

Anonymous omar's running shoes November 07, 2016 8:50 AM  

Up here in NH the Trump signage is running about 8:1 I have met plenty of open Trump supporters a lot of people on the fence who are simply disgusted and might take a pass and only a small number of very angry Clinton supporters who when they speak seem pretty scary.

Don't know if that means anything, but my gut tells me it won't even be close.

Blogger Robert Divinity November 07, 2016 8:55 AM  

The left is likely to riot and protest if he wins and if he's seen as illegitimate.

The communists will view any Trump victory as illegitimate. Be prepared.

Anonymous a deplorable rubberducky November 07, 2016 8:59 AM  

Dick Morris has made the case that a path for a Trump victory does exist without Florida, thanks to late movement in the upper midwest industrial states of Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota.

I'm not saying Trump won't win Florida. In fact Nate Silver has now said that a Trump victory in Florida is probable. I mean to point out that multiple avenues exist now for Trump victory overall. Last night Kellyanne Conway cited six different routes that she thinks are possible.

Anonymous FP November 07, 2016 9:00 AM  

As of Friday, the numbers here in Oregon are 41% of ballots have been returned overall. According to the Oregon state voting returns site, 47.7% of Dems have returned their ballots as of 11/4. 48% of Republican and 25% of Non-affiliated (little i independent). There are 500k or so eligible non-affiliated voters yet to turn in their ballots, 380k GOP, and 510k Dems. On top of that you have about 70k Independent Party (leans GOP usually, about 100k total registered) voters left to vote.

So 562,970 non Dem votes turned in vs 470k Dem. That doesn't include Libertarian and Pacific Green parties. They have a total of about 30k voters and only 9k have turned in ballots so far.

Might be a lot of Bernie supporters here who break for Trump or 3rd party. Stein and Weedman combined topped at 4% in 2012 in most counties if I recall correctly. Speaking of weed, many Oregon counties have weed measures on the ballot this year, so that could be a factor. The other is measure 97 which is a corporate tax on sales not profit. Lots and lots against that so could drive up potential Trump supporters to the polls.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist November 07, 2016 9:00 AM  

Hey @40 , What is this "1 day to vote rule" where I read Dems bus in Massachusetts people to NH today?

Blogger Cail Corishev November 07, 2016 9:00 AM  

The left liked to say Bush was illegitimate because butterfly ballot. Unless Trump wins in similar narrow, confusing fashion, I don't know what their rationale would be. I mean, they can certainly claim he stole the election somehow and jump up and down, but it won't get much traction. Most people are just going to be relieved it's over.

Blogger steves November 07, 2016 9:08 AM  

Trump hadn't previously put a lot of effort into Michigan because Clinton had a double digit lead. He is pulling out the stops now and it is paying off. Her lead has all but disappeared and the latest polls favor Trump. All of this, despite RINO Gov. Snyder refusing to endorse him. For the first time since the late eighties, the GOP will take Michigan.

Blogger sysadmn November 07, 2016 9:16 AM  

@12 The rust belt state polls are a mystery to me.

All states, deep red or deep blue, have several blue population cores, and vast red areas - look at the county-by-county charts of party affiliation. In tossup states, the numbers nearly match, and the party that does a better job of getting out the vote wins. See Ohio's 2012 results at http://boundlessgeo.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/OhioResults2012.png. 2012 population roughly 12 million; 4 million in the city limits of the 5 top cities, probably close to 6-8 if you include their metropolitan areas. If Trump loses, look for the RNC betrayal in not getting out the vote.

@27 Kasich is firmly in the "anything for a buck" big business wing of the party. As Cleveland's mayor, he was just Republican enough on social issues to maintain support of the grass roots; but the plutocrats knew he was good for their interests.

Blogger Michael Riley November 07, 2016 9:23 AM  

Maybe it's because I'm in Texas, but while I hear lots of people talking Trump, I hear almost nothing for Hillary. To me, that says no one is enthusiastic about her, and when you combine that with the around the building lines for early voting I saw Friday at 10am, and it tells me that she's going to be crushed.

Blogger dh November 07, 2016 9:36 AM  

Great analysis. It's good all around.

Florida is interesting because Hispanics have outvoted 2012 by 450k votes.

Blogger michaeloh59 November 07, 2016 9:46 AM  

Amid all the excitement it is important to remember this movement is about more than one election. It is fundamentally an awakening. Even defeat in this election cannot stop the racial awakening of Gringo-Americans to the extent that the movement boils and bubbles upstream of politics; in the culture, social media, bloggers, podcasts, hackers, and the rest of the Internet Dissidents. Meanwhile on the ground more Americans of European descent would be driven to look for answers from the Dissident/Alt Right by the real life bigotry and hostility of a Hilary Administration; think "fair housing" which puts violent, anti-white ghetto Democrats in your neighborhood, think a SCOTUS dominated by Ruth Bader Bigotberg, think a war on "white Privelege" which means an orgasm of anti-white revenge porn such as "Dgango Unchained" spilling over into every corner of our culture, TV, movies, ads, "news", popular music, and of course the College Campus. Hilary means America devolves From hatred of whites masquerading as "inclusion" , "diversity", and "civil rights" to the unvarnished Hate Whitey Mindfuck celebrated in every TV sho, school textbook, and judicial opinion/Fuhrer Directive. It is, unfortunately, the only way Crackers learn- and we are learning! So do not despair. A Hillary Administration would be GOOD for the movement.

Blogger OGRE November 07, 2016 9:49 AM  

OH, PA, and MI go for Trump and seal the deal. Thats my call.

The Rust belt is hurting, primarily due to the Clintons. And the people there know that.

Some things to consider:

PA - Dem governor; US House 13 Repubs, 4 Dems; US Senate 1 Repub 1 Dem; State House 119 Repubs, 84 Dems; State Senate 31 Repubs, 19 Dems.

MI - Repub governor; US House 9 Repub, 5 Dem; US Senate 2 Dems; State House 61 Repub, 45 Dem; State Senate 27 Repub, 11 Dem.

Those are not thoroughly blue states. And with the loss of manufacturing jobs the lock on Dem votes there has receded as well. Its hard to get much of a union vote when the union workers aren't there anymore.

Another thing to consider is that with the last two Pres. elections the Dems had a significant advantage in having a black candidate. And of course the Repubs ran against him with the two whitest men in America...an albino WWI vet and a northeastern socialite Mormon. Obama gave plenty of people a reason to vote; just the novelty of being able to say that you'd voted for the first black president was enough for a lot of people. But that advantage is gone this time, and the Repub nominee is more gangsta than Obama could ever hope to be.

Anonymous Ironsides November 07, 2016 9:53 AM  

Get out there and vote, guys! And do what you can to get other people to go out and vote for The Donald, too!

MAGA! MAGA! MAGA!

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist November 07, 2016 10:00 AM  

@51: I think that is why Trump has a fantastic chance in Michigan better than PA. PA has its infamous Philly machine and corruption that may be a bit too hard to overcome. But, the same can't be said for Michigan and I think any Dem advantage in Detroit can be overcome in the red parts of the state.

Trump wins Michigan by 1.5+ points.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 07, 2016 10:01 AM  

Out of Chicago which reaches Southern WI and Northwestern IN the Trump ads are about lost factories and Hillary's corruptness. Hillary's ads are the hectoring miserable old white woman shtick which no doubt sounds good to miserable old white women and people who aspire to be miserable old white women after Satan rises from an Egyptian crypt and brings back the dead to rule over us.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 07, 2016 10:13 AM  

FOX news is in the bag for crazy, but for the life of me I could not find the internals for their polling.

Blogger Zach November 07, 2016 10:22 AM  

@45

Cail,

I look forward to looking haughtily at such people and say "There's NO EVIDENCE of voter fraud in the United States!"

After all, we're being solemnly assured now that such a thing doesn't exist, and it's only tinfoil hat wearing weenies and GOP operatives who would even suggest such a dastardly slander!

Since they assure me today that such rigging of the election is impossible, I plan to remind them in two days.

peace,
Zach

Blogger Stilicho November 07, 2016 10:25 AM  

I recalculated the latest ABC poll (hillary up 4 pts) using the 2014 party affiliation numbers (ABC used d38 r31 i27 while Nov 2014 affiliations were d28 r28 i41). If the 2014 affiliation numbers hold for 2016 then Trump wins 44.1 to 42.7. That's without adjusting for the irrationally high 3rd party votes in the ABC poll (which also severely underweighted independents) or considering other fudge factors such as selecting independents from a region where they tend to favor democrats. Even I'd dems have a r point affiliation advantage, it's at best a dead heat for hillary.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 07, 2016 10:29 AM  

No one can find any internals for the FOX/FAUX polls

Blogger Robert What? November 07, 2016 10:30 AM  

BTW, there is no question that the Democrats are bussing in illegal aliens to vote in Florida. An acquaintance of mine who lives in a heavily Republican part of Florida said that he had never seen so many Hispanics before when he went in for early voting.

Blogger dh November 07, 2016 10:31 AM  

I recalculated the latest ABC poll (hillary up 4 pts) using the 2014 party affiliation numbers (ABC used d38 r31 i27 while Nov 2014 affiliations were d28 r28 i41).

It is really foolish to use mid-term voter affiliation numbers. 2012's actual numbers were d38, r32, i29, which is probably why ABC used similar numbers this year.

It's actually optimistic. I suspect that the d number may be closer to 40, depending on how many new minority voters actually turnout. That's including a big drop in African-American turnout from the fade of the Obama effect.

National polling at this point is folly. Stick with what VD has worked up, which shows state-levels which are all that matter now.

Anonymous HammerSix Actual November 07, 2016 10:43 AM  

Don't watch TV, so just saw Trump's final Ad via Scott Adams. IT is worth sharing with others, as well as Scott's thoughts. http://blog.dilbert.com/post/152747601271/trump-the-closer

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) November 07, 2016 10:43 AM  

It is really foolish to use mid-term voter affiliation numbers. 2012's actual numbers were d38, r32, i29, which is probably why ABC used similar numbers this year.

What about averaging the 2012 and 2014 numbers?

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 07, 2016 10:53 AM  

To me it feels like a mid term election, that is where Republican conservative leaning voters vote their displeasure against the corruption in the government programs they love. The past presidential elections were basically Who is Ayn Rand, but Trump flushed all that crap away. Trump really will save Tea Party Granny's Medicare

Blogger Alexander November 07, 2016 10:56 AM  

My take on Trumpenslide:

South: No problem - FL, GA, NC to Trump. VA is close and if it goes for Trump it's a clean sweep.

Rust belt: I put the spectrum as (Trump) IN - OH - PA - MI (Clinton). I know some think PA and MI should be switched. Either way, Trump wins IN and OH no question, and at least one of the other two.

Southwest: AZ goes Trump. At least 2 of 3: CO, NV, NM

Not a geographic region but I will call them 'white-blue' states: CT, ME, MN, NH, OR, WI. NE and ME-2 will fall, then ME at large and MN are the next likely candidates (if what I hear about the Iron Range going Trump is true). OR might be one where nobody votes for Trump but everyone's neighbor does. Wisconsin is weird politically and always has been, who knows. And CT strikes me as being too tied to the banksters to bail on the machine quite yet, though I don't know.

Blogger OGRE November 07, 2016 11:02 AM  

@60 dh. d40? That seems wildly optimistic. That would be by far the highest since Reagan. It was 38 with Obama's first run, and the trend ever since has been down. While I agree using just the 2014 numbers would be foolish, it seems you are also ignoring the primary numbers as well which have been a strong indicator of ED results, and ignoring the strong trend towards R in state level elections (governors and state legislatures).

You're right to discount the black vote, but you're granting a much higher turnout for minority voters than is justified.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 07, 2016 11:02 AM  

The main thing that strikes me about the Hillary ads I've seen and heard is that she's not in them. They're just a string of deplorable clips from Trump, so when she pops in with "I approve this message," it's actually kind of jarring. I realize their entire strategy at this point is demoralization, but the absense of anything at all positive about her stands out.

Blogger dh November 07, 2016 11:22 AM  

What about averaging the 2012 and 2014 numbers?

Why, it never works out to be the average. It's two different electorates - Presidential year and mid-term.

Blogger dh November 07, 2016 11:24 AM  

You're right to discount the black vote, but you're granting a much higher turnout for minority voters than is justified.

It could be stagnant at 38. The number was 38 in 2012, Obama's second run. But the demographics are 4 years more baked in then they are now. Plus the DNC and Clinton campaign have been spending 2x to 3x more on GOTV than the RNC and Trump campaign (the Trump campaign has spent basically zero).

Blogger OGRE November 07, 2016 11:32 AM  

@68 dh. Pew and Gallup both have 2012 at D35 on ED. 2008 was a record high, almost entirely due to the novelty of the Dem candidate.

Pew has 2016 at D 33, R 29, I 34. Gallups most recent (9/16) has it D 32, R 27, I 40. Weigh any of the polls with those numbers and Trump comes out ahead in the popular vote.

http://www.people-press.org/2016/09/13/the-parties-on-the-eve-of-the-2016-election-two-coalitions-moving-further-apart/

http://www.gallup.com/poll/15370/party-affiliation.aspx

Anonymous Sam the Man November 07, 2016 11:33 AM  

DH,

I do not buy your comment about 450,000 additional Hispanic votes this time around. I simply do not see the motivation, as we know the Hispanic vote should trend democratic.

Look at Hillarie's rallies. To get folks to come out, they are making them free concerts with Bruce Springsteen, Katie Perry and other leftists. So the main draw is musicians with Hillary in the wings.

All the polls I see seem to indicate a 11 to 12 % drop off in Black votes. Of the blacks voting, between 10 an 17 % seem to be voting for Trump, with another 2 to 3 % voting elsewhere.

So the actual black support for Hillary is around 81 to 84 % of 55 % of the eligible black voters, when Obama got around 93 to 94% of 66% of the eligible black voters.

Your figure that Hispanics are producing an additional 450,000 votes in Florida seems to be wishful thinking. Here is my source:

http://www.pewhispanic.org/fact-sheets/2016-state-election-fact-sheets/latinos-in-the-2016-election-florida/

So far from producing an additional 450,000 Hispanic registered voters, since 2012 in Florida, Hispanic registration went from 1.66 million to 1.795 million. Of the 135,000 additional voters, only 678,000 were registered democratic in 2016, whereas in 2012 645,000 were, a net gain of 33,000 registered democrats. But republican registered Hispanic voters went up by 3,000 and unaffiliated went up by 97,000, with the remaining 2,000 voters being other parties.

The turn out in 2012 was around 72% overall, no figure found on Hispanic voters alone. For the Hispanic population to produce 450,000 additional votes in 2016 assuming 72% turn out this election, would mean only 50.7% voted in 2012. If they were that low in 2012, I see no motivating force to get them to come out with around 50% higher participation rate.


So your little comment of 450,000 additional Hispanic votes seems hard to justify. Care to comment Mr. "Oh so knowledgeable about state election stats"?

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 07, 2016 11:38 AM  

Speaking of flips Obama won Iowa with a 5.81% margin in 2012, now a Trumslide is predicted in Hogtopia.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 07, 2016 11:41 AM  

Drudge leading with NM "tossup" Obama won NM in 2012 with a 10% margin.

Blogger Christopher B November 07, 2016 11:49 AM  

Not to be deafeatist but some of the early states may not be called in an attempt to keep Hillary voters engaged or possibly depress Trump voters in states that are close.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 07, 2016 11:58 AM  

#73 BINGO

Blogger Stilicho November 07, 2016 11:59 AM  

Actually, dh, the 2012 numbers are d35 r30 i33. 2008 are d33 r28 i37. 2010 are d31 r26 i41. 2014 are d28 r28 i41. Sept 2016 are d32 r27 i40. If you assume historical avg of d+3, it's a tie. If you assume anything like 2014 it's a Trump win. If you assume nothing has changed since Sept. Hillary squeaks by. It all comes down to whether your assumptions are correct.

One notable trend since 2008 is the increase in independents at the equal expense of both parties. All polls I've seen show trump winning independents quite comfortably (5 to 9 points). I suspect it will be enough. And I suspect at least 50 percent of the poll support for Johnson and stein to become votes for trump and Hillary respectively. We will see tomorrow. If I am wrong, it will be obvious.

Anonymous Kr November 07, 2016 12:09 PM  

In my tally, assuming Trump wins the obvious states, he needs one of these combinations to reach 270:
1.NV and NH
2.CO and NH or ME
3.NV and CO
4.PA
5.MI

So the person said correctly, upthread, that the race is down to NH, NV, CO, MI and PA.


Anonymous Kusala Blue November 07, 2016 12:12 PM  

This post is all wet. Even if Trump retains NC, and flips NH, FL and OH, Clinton is still at 281. Hey, I'm a shill!

Blogger VD November 07, 2016 12:13 PM  

Care to comment Mr. "Oh so knowledgeable about state election stats"?

There is no reason to be disrespectful to dh. He was correct in 2012. Perhaps he'll be correct this time, perhaps not. Regardless, he's a regular and his insights are valued.

Blogger VD November 07, 2016 12:14 PM  

Not to be deafeatist but some of the early states may not be called in an attempt to keep Hillary voters engaged or possibly depress Trump voters in states that are close.

Then we'll know that things are going well for Trump. Their attempts to manipulate public opinion can be informative.

OpenID aew51183 November 07, 2016 12:19 PM  

FL and VA look underreported in RCP

I've been seeing FL polls flashing across twitter all weekend and he's +8 to +16, and these are polls like yougov.
MSNBC had some democratic surrogate on talking about how the state is lost for Hillary.

I've seen 3 separate VA polls with positive numbers.

Blogger Stilicho November 07, 2016 12:27 PM  

@ josh averaging is a valid approach. The problem is, we don't have a long history from Gallup (only goes back to 2008) so it's a small sample. On the other hand, the more recent numbers are arguably more relevant. Dh wants to discount 2014 because midterm. While that's somewhat appropriate you cannot discount it entirely which brings us back to a weighted average, which brings us to assumptions again. Dh assumes things are roughly the same as 2012. I assume things have changed (in trumps favor) based in part on 2014. The wild card is the twists of this campaign along with the preference cascade Vox speaks of.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 07, 2016 12:28 PM  

If the pollsters have been push-polling all along, and they're not so in the tank for Hillary that they're willing to risk being off by a huge margin, today is the day they have to shift at least to within the margin of error of a clear Trump victory. Which, whaddya know, is what we're seeing.

Anonymous Sam the Man November 07, 2016 12:33 PM  

VD,

This is your site so I apologize, as one does when one is a guest.

That said, I see weighty prognostications by DH but relatively little facts or analysis to back it up. So he has finally presented a figure of 450,000 added Hispanic votes. I am calling him on it. Where does he get such an estimate?

Perhaps my tone was not exactly respectful, (for which I am sorry). But if one is going to make dismissive comments as DH does, then when called one should back it up.

Blogger Stilicho November 07, 2016 12:39 PM  

@josh the other factors I will add that are in trumps favor are primary turnout and total votes as well as the fact that there is a significant enthusiasm gap between hillary and Obama (making 2012 a suspect guide).

Blogger OGRE November 07, 2016 12:42 PM  

@84 Stilicho don't overlook the gains Trump has made within the black and Latino votes. I think Obama was pulling 93% among blacks. All the polls I've seen have Trump pulling 17 to 25.

The one wildcard is the NeverTrumpers. How big are they? How solidly anti-Trump are they? Will they vote Clinton or third party or stay home? In a swing state it could be the difference.

Blogger OGRE November 07, 2016 12:43 PM  

@84 btw great username. Stilicho is one of the most fascinating characters from the late Roman Empire.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 07, 2016 12:56 PM  

Got this from the other thread, where it wasn't so much on-topic:

The LA Times tracking poll has Clinton leading Trump among "Latinos" by only 46.7 to 43.6%.

Holy cow. Obama got 75% of Hispanic Catholics.

It's the Spirit Cooking, but it's also the fact that Catholics found out from the emails that the Democrats had been playing them for chumps and setting up fifth columns inside their ranks. That's been buzzing around Catholic circles for a month. It may not bother elites like Cardinal Dolan, but it bothered ordinary people.

Hillary's blatant extremism on abortion at the third debate, and Trump's unprecedented promise to appoint pro-life judges, have helped too.

It would be beautiful to see mean-racist Trump get half of the "natural conservative" Latino vote, after Hispandering Republicans patted themselves on the back when they could manage 30% of it.

Blogger Stilicho November 07, 2016 1:00 PM  

@85 I expect that Johnsons actual numbers will be a little higher than history woudl suggest, but nowhere near his current poll numbers due to nevertrumpers. Of course, I can't say how many big L libertarians will pull the lever for trump rather than waste a vote on Johnson.

Blogger Basil Makedon November 07, 2016 1:00 PM  

Voter demographics are not evenly distributed, as we all know. The 538 website has an interesting model of demographics in each state.

To believe that HRC will win you have to assume that voters will turn out for her in the same percentages in both support and in turnout as 2012. If I start changing these dials even slightly, states start to flip.

Romney did appallingly bad with Hispanics and AA's. Do we really think that they will turnout in unprecedented numbers and levels of support for HRC? I think not.

2012:

AA's -- 93% D, 63% turnout
Hisp -- 71% D, 47% turnout
NCW -- 60% R, 55% turnout
CW -- 54% R, 78% turnout

2004 (Roper, doesn't address turnout, sadly)

AA -- 88% D
Hisp -- 54% D
Whites -- 58%

Basil's 2016 Safe Model:

AA -- 88% D, 60% turnout (essentially pre-Obama support)
Hisp -- 66% D, 47% turnout
NCW -- 63% R, 58% turnout (this is a low estimate)
CW -- 55% R, 78% turnout (+1% support, no turnout change)

Result -- FL, OH, IO, PA and VA all flip to Trump (292 EVs).

Basil's 2016 Crazy Model:

AA -- 88% D, 57% turnout (pre-Obama support, midterm like turnout)
Hisp -- 60% D, 54% turnout (a 20% loss and increased Hisp Turnout because the wall or something)
NCW -- 65% R, 57% turnout (more support and enthusiasm in Trumps's best demo)
CW -- 55% R, 78% turnout (just 1% better than Romney in support, equal turnout)

Result -- NV, CO, OH, FL, PA, WI, VA, MI, MN, NH, ME3 (348 EVs).

Ask yourself is my crazy model, actually that crazy?

Blogger Stilicho November 07, 2016 1:03 PM  

@85 I expect that Johnsons actual numbers will be a little higher than history woudl suggest, but nowhere near his current poll numbers due to nevertrumpers. Of course, I can't say how many big L libertarians will pull the lever for trump rather than waste a vote on Johnson.

Blogger Cicatrizatic November 07, 2016 1:12 PM  

@89. I agree with your estimates on AA and Hispanic turnout and D%s.

Harder to tell with Non-College Whites and College Whites. I have not been closely tracking the College White cross-tab.

I know that, per Nate Cohn's article from June 2016, the 2012 exit polls likely understated the white percentage of the electorate. Instead of 72%, it was probably more like 74%. I think a lot of pollsters are assuming that percentage will be 68-70% this year, whereas it will likely hold at 74%. Bloomberg's final national poll is 70% white.

Black turnout is obviously down. They will probably be 11-12% this time, as opposed to 13% of the electorate.

Hispanic turnout is up in the early vote, but so is white turnout. Even some of the Hispanic polling outfits are estimating that Hispanics will be about 9% of the electorate this year.

Just as a sample of how polls are under-sampling whites, the final Opinion Savvy poll of Florida (Clinton +1) is 65% White, even though we already know from the early voting in FL (which will constitute about 70% of the votes) that Whites are at 68%. After election day, the total white percentage of Florida voters may be 70%.

Anonymous Mr. Rational November 07, 2016 1:17 PM  

Undocumented Civilizationalist wrote:the crowd at that Michigan rally was massive. Even the media reported on the "oceans of people" there, which is why I wonder if Michigan might end up being the "Trump" card so to speak.
I'm up in the NW LP.  My sampling of the artsy tourist village next door and the lefty rainbow city down the road show no enthusiasm for The Cunt.  There is ONE Clinton/Kaine sign on the routes I drive regularly.  Everything else is Trump.

Macomb county polled for Trump.  It is going to be YUUUGE.

@21 Let me try:

They rigged the demographics so to "give to those with less"
And claimed it was a mitzvah that the Whites be dispossessed.
They rigged investigations just like they were loading dice
To keep the witch from being charged, that's all, it would suffice.

Then they rigged the primaries to put Bernie abaft her
He weren't a Democrat before, and ceased to be one after.
They rigged debates like SATs, to steal e'en a chance
By giving her the answers to the questions in advance.

"Correct The Record" came in swarms of talking-pointing trolls
Pushing leftist Narrative, though it was full of holes
The media was long corrupt, already in the bag
Advancing the agenda of the child-molesting hag.

And last they rigged the pollsters, all their samples were untrue
Hoping prophesy fullfill itself and turn the nation blue
But after all that rigging the opponent pulls ahead
They realize their duck is lame, and soon... it will be dead.

This attempt at a poem is in the public domain.

OpenID aew51183 November 07, 2016 1:22 PM  

@92 The polling firms missed the Bernslide in michigan by some 23 points. If even 1/4 of those guys are BernieOrBust that state's Democrat voting turnout will likely be "in name only" if you know what I mean.

OpenID frankluke November 07, 2016 1:28 PM  

I am praying and fasting lunch today and tomorrow. I was not urged to fast until after breakfast. Any others so urged may join me.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 07, 2016 1:32 PM  

Drudge is developing some stories about early voting in FL and NC where Trump has outpolled Romney's totals by a yuuuge amount (still down to Hillary by a smidge in both states)

Blogger Brian H November 07, 2016 1:46 PM  

Was thrilled to find out my 60-yr-old next door neighbor in the Keystone State - who has never voted in his life - decided he needed to join the fun and vote TRUMP tomorrow.

Blogger The Gray Man November 07, 2016 2:27 PM  

http://www.denverpost.com/2016/11/07/purple-state-memo-republicans-hold-lead-in-early-voting-entering-election-day/

Anonymous JAMES November 07, 2016 3:53 PM  

Just a hunch but I think ultimately t will boil down to three factors:

a) whether the Dems can get enough of a boost from any rise in anti-Trump hispanic voting to outweigh the fact that blacks just don't care without Obama.

b) whether no college whites come out in the greater numbers you would expect for a nationalist candidate.

c) the level of "I'm a good-white" virtue signalling of the pox on both your houses variety from college educated whites desperate to disavow Trump for brownie points.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 07, 2016 4:30 PM  

Obama won CO by 5.1% in 2012. The only thing positive the Ds have are demographics, but even that I think is a mirage. My aunt who is a long term resident of the Denver area is telling me the normies are getting sick of the potheads that have camped out in Colorado.

Blogger James Dixon November 07, 2016 4:42 PM  

I still have no idea who is going to win the election. The huge leads the polls were showing for Clinton have vanished like the carefully crafted illusions they were, and the race is now within the margin of error within the contested states (which is what I expected to happen, as it usually does). This is why I don't trust the polls, as I've told dh several times.

Trump has the momentum, and he has a broader base of support than any R candidate since Reagan. We'll have to wait and see if it's enough to carry enough of the contested states to give him a victory. I've already done my part, for what little good it does.

Anonymous Praying for the Trumpslide November 07, 2016 4:50 PM  

Well, VA may go for the criminal, because McAulife just got out the jailhouse vote, using an autopen to allow a bunch of felons to vote. Still, go Trump!!

Blogger John Wright November 07, 2016 4:51 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger John Wright November 07, 2016 4:53 PM  

You will hear no demoralizing word from me, I assure you.

I am not prophet, but when I heard the rumor that the Dems would not permit "USA! USA!!" to be chanted at Hillary rallies, on the grounds that this was "Trump's chant" my nape hairs stood on end, and I whispered to myself, "She is doomed. He will win in a landslide."

And I stopped listening to the polls (and to the pols) ever since.

Trumpslide cometh.

You will tomorrow see visions the likes of which eyes have not seen before, nor shall ever again! Smug leftist brains will explode like a scene from the movie Scanners; Wall Street socialists will fling themselves from towers; Jihadists will slash themselves with knives and call on their false and empty idol, Allah, to curse the day; and media moguls will drive their sportcars off the Golden Gate bridge and into the sea, exploding in midair from sheer Pauline Kael frustration to strike the waves like a burning comet, or Lucifer falling from the zenith.

It will be wonderful.

And it will go on and on and on as each day America pulls herself free from the mire of Leftist policies and executive orders and regains her footing, strength and stature.

And the Left, like Rumpelstiltskin, will tear themselves in half in fury, and be swallowed whole into a flaming pit in the earth.

Bring popcorn. Bring Jack Daniels. Cause you ain't seen nothing yet.

You thought the election was entertaining! WAIT UNTIL YOU SEE THE ADMINISTRATION!!

OpenID aew51183 November 07, 2016 4:58 PM  

@101 they were pardoned long after the registration deadline. They're not voting this cycle unless it's illegally.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr November 07, 2016 5:54 PM  

@103: God grant that it be so.

Blogger Keith Glass November 07, 2016 5:55 PM  

All 4 of us here are voting for the God-Emperor, Donald the First. . .

Northern Virginia.

Wednesday should be highly amusing. . .

OpenID frankluke November 07, 2016 9:48 PM  

I say watch the media tomorrow. If they look glum as the results are being fed to them, know the Trumpslide cometh. If they can barely contain their glee, brace yourselves.

Personally, the feel in the air is of a Trumpslide. One member of the media on the trail with Hillary has reported it doesn't feel like a victory dance-it feels like they hope to eek it out.

Now, go out there and work like we're losing in all 57 states!

Blogger Cail Corishev November 08, 2016 12:02 AM  

For what it's worth, that Democrat judge who tried to stop Trump volunteers from monitoring the polls for cheating in PA got shot down by a federal judge. I think the same thing happened in OH.

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