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Tuesday, November 08, 2016

RCP: 272 to 266

The latest - perhaps even final - RCP No Toss Up States map has Hillary Clinton hanging on by her blood-stained fingernails, 272-266. Long vanished are all the claims of an easy Clinton win, which, as I have repeatedly stated, were complete fiction from the start. Trump only needs to take ONE toss up state they've given her from the following list of six to win:
  • NH
  • PA
  • MI
  • CO
  • NM
  • VA
Of these, I think New Hampshire and Pennsylvania are the most likely. I think he'll take both, and Michigan and Colorado as well. Meanwhile, several Minnesotans have told me, in all seriousness, that they expect Trump to take Minnesota. I find that almost impossible to believe, considering that Minnesota has historically been the most reliably Democratic state in the country, but people are extremely unhappy about losing Dinkytown to the Somalis and the Mall of America to the blacks, and about the St. Cloud mall stabbings. In any case, I'm just relaying what I've been told.



Of potential relevance:

Four Presidential polls of likely voters were released today for Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia, showing Donald Trump with a lead in each state. The Trafalgar Group (TFG), a national political consulting and public relations firm, conducted the polls from November 3rd through November 6th. "We expect Trump to have an overwhelming victory in Georgia, an outside the margin of error win in Florida, as well as close wins in Pennsylvania and Michigan."

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232 Comments:

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Blogger Ransom Smith November 08, 2016 7:12 AM  

I'm pumped. Going to the polls here in Virginia in a few hours. If I see anything interesting, will report back.

Blogger Esse Quam Videri November 08, 2016 7:18 AM  

VD I was at the Sunday Trump Rally at the Sun Country hangar. People were inline at 6 AM (for a 2 PM start) and came from as far away as ND. Multiple people in the front of the line with me had originally planned to drive the 4+ hours to see him in Iowa.
The hangar reached max capacity well before everyone was able to get inside. I was at the very front so I couldn't see for myself how big the crowd outside was, but multiple reports said 20-25k total. Trump, when he took the stage, said there were 3 times as many people outside as inside. The energy was electric. People are pumped up in MN for Trump. We will have to see if that energy is able to overcome the huge odds stacked against us. I've never seen anything like it in the 16 years I've been old enough to vote. This is the best shot we've ever had to turn this state red.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) November 08, 2016 7:20 AM  

Trump 32, Clinton 25 in NH:

https://mobile.twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ/status/795861226303721472

Anonymous omar's running shoes November 08, 2016 7:20 AM  

I'm calling NH for Trump right now.

Headed out to vote, we'll see.

Blogger exfarmkid November 08, 2016 7:22 AM  

Minnesota going Trump? Doubtful. Outside of the Twin Cities, I think Trump will win in a landslide. But there is the problem of the Twin Cities......

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist November 08, 2016 7:22 AM  

My family lives in Minnesota too, albeit away from the Twin Cities. They live up near the North Dakota border. What has many of them very, VERY unhappy is the Obamacare increases. They are shockingly bad and are definitely going to get some of the DFL's to go Trump. In the end, I don't think Trump wins MN, but the mere idea that chatter is there indicates just how much momentum he has.

My prediction: He gets all the above states on the RCP map and he takes MI and NH out of the list. He gets 286. The lizard queen is vanquished. All is right with the world once again.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) November 08, 2016 7:28 AM  

If you believe John Ralston, the Democrats have an early voting lead that would be very difficult for Trump to overcome. If that's true, it's 278-260. He would need more than NH to win.

Anonymous Roundtine November 08, 2016 7:34 AM  

FWIW, the Trump team send an email yesterday saying it wants to double its phone banking in Massachusetts because it thinks the state is in play.

Blogger VD November 08, 2016 7:35 AM  

If you believe John Ralston, the Democrats have an early voting lead that would be very difficult for Trump to overcome

That's likely irrelevant. The Dems always have an early voting lead, and it is much, much smaller this year than it was in 2012.

Blogger Alexander November 08, 2016 7:40 AM  

In line right now. Googles chatting behind me. I could not be more redpilled.

Anonymous Sub November 08, 2016 7:42 AM  

Early voting numbers looking good for Trump here in CO. Republicans have a 7000 ballot lead with about 68% turned in. Only question is how many Cruzlim #NeverTrumpers will try and throw a spanner in the works, but I have a feeling that most of those clowns will come around to the fact that Shitlery is the worst candidate ever.

I'm encouraged by the bumper sticker indicator when I go into Denver, in 2008 and 2012 Obama stickers were everywhere, but I've only seen a couple of Hillary stickers during the entire campaign. Illegals cause way too many problems here for there not to be some resonance with Trump's message.

Blogger Michael November 08, 2016 7:42 AM  

Just got back from voting near Cincinnati ohio. There was a line out the door. About a 30 minute wait. Almost all Caucasian.

Blogger dh November 08, 2016 7:44 AM  

My prediction mimics mine from August, which is Clinton 323 Trump 226. (Clinton takes MI, FL, NC, VA, PA, NH, NV and CO but loses OH and AZ). My secondary fallback is Trump takes 1EV for Maine's 2nd district (322 v 227).

Clinton takes popular vote by 3.0%. Democrats pickup the Senate 51 to 49, with New Hampshire tilting it towards the Democrats. Democrats pickup 6 seats in the House, but still retain the minority.

Anonymous polyhedron November 08, 2016 7:44 AM  

MAGA! First time I've voted in a presidential election. (Although I did vote for RP in the previous two primaries.)

Blogger Alexandros November 08, 2016 7:46 AM  

I can't believe they were trying to claim Arizona was in play at some point; I guess we'll see, but the view from the ground is a sea of red at the polling stations.

Blogger Alexandros November 08, 2016 7:46 AM  

I forgot to mention that people are already lined up and polls only open at 6.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist November 08, 2016 7:48 AM  

Ralston is talking about Nevada specifically. Here is the early voting data so far:

2016 Rep: 278,611
Dem: 324, 239
Other: 167, 148

Compared to 2012:
Rep: 260,601
Dem: 308, 828
Other: 135, 622

Dems currently have about a 46,000 vote lead when comparing only Dem and Repub votes and assuming each get 100% of their voters (which of course, they won’t) . This is slightly down from about a 48,000 vote lead in 2012.

However, Obama did end up winning Nevada by about 7% in 2012. It is uphill for Repubs to win it, but polling seems to show Trump pulling Independents by larger margins than Romney and more crossover from Dems to Republicans than the other way around. So. It comes down to turnout.

Blogger will stroock November 08, 2016 7:48 AM  

On MN, something's going on there. Trump swung though MN the other day. Remember Norm Coleman's shock in 2002? Could happen.

Anonymous Epimandes November 08, 2016 7:49 AM  

@13 There's no way Clinton is getting 323 EV. It's gonna be way less than that

Blogger YIH November 08, 2016 7:52 AM  

I've been saying all along it's going to be close.
Prediction: There will not be a Trump or Hillary concession speech today.
If the final outcome is like what is shown on the RCP map (less than 10 EC difference) it's going to be 2000 all over again. Trump has already stated outright he'll fight such a result, and Hillary will do anything - including, unlike Gore, murder if necessary. Perhaps that's why Scalia lost that pillow fight.

Blogger John M November 08, 2016 7:55 AM  

Everyone, past these messages around, from The Conservative Treehouse

♦ Do not be discouraged by media. Tune out the noise. Remember, they have corporate interests at stake in this election. The two years of enlightenment provided by Trump and WikiLeaks should give you a frame of reference to dismiss their manipulative efforts. Nothing will ever be the same again. The fourth estate had fundamentally destroyed itself and will never recover. Stay away from them as they thrash and drown in the sea of their own creation.

♦ Calm yourself and breathe. Before absorbing any information ask yourself if thinking about it provides nourishment or toxicity. If the latter, ignore it. Don’t spread negativity just because you are incapable of retaining your own sensibility or confidence.

♦ The media are notoriously predictable with exit polling, take all exit polling with a grain of salt. You will not see the CTH promote it. Just like “media polling” exit polling inherently carries the ideological bias of the outlet delivering the results. Exit polls are used by media to frame a narrative.

♦ Anticipate election day “gaslighting” from the same media. If a state result is close and Hillary is leading, they will call it for her. Conversely if Trump is leading a close result they will delay any calls benefitting him. The MSM intended objectives for doing this are just as obvious as they were in the primary. The media attempt to influence turnout in time zones by their method of calling races with earlier polling closes. When you know their techniques, you inoculate yourself from their manipulation.

Anonymous Steve November 08, 2016 7:57 AM  

JCW's prediction yesterday was great.

Steve's prediction: it will be as if a million shrill, lispy voices cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced.

WOWS will just wow.

WHAT THE ACTUALS will be fucked.

I CAN'TS will be evened.

Jubilant posses of redhats will storm their local Starbuckses, dragging out noodle-armed hipster shitlibs and shaving off their ironic facial hair with Trump-branded steak knives.

Hillary Clinton and Huma will seek asylum in the Saudi embassy, but end up sold as sex slaves to some blind sheikh.

CNN will switch to a "TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIES - PLEASE STAND BY" test card and never come back on.

A stampede of triggered feminist heffalumpen will clump towards the Canadian border, then be mercilessly gunned down by a regiment of mounties led by Ted Cruz.

Glenn Beck will be found dead in his fake Oval Office, which the coroner will rule a tragic and bizarre autoerotic asphyxiation incident, aggravated by the bust of Abe Lincoln found in his rectum.

Make it so, my fellow shitlords! Now's the day and now's the hour!

Anonymous Überdeplorable Psychedelic Cat Hair November 08, 2016 7:57 AM  

Been waiting for over an hour and probably 10 mins away. Poll worker just outside of no campaigning zone asking if ppl want to see a Dem ballot. Thinking of yelling dicks out for Trump as I drive off.

Blogger Shimshon November 08, 2016 7:57 AM  

If MN goes for Trump, it will erase the great moral blot of preventing Reagan from assuming a 50 state landslide in 1984. MAGA!

Blogger Cecil Henry November 08, 2016 7:58 AM  

I plan on ignoring all news today.

I will check again on Wednesday morning.

Either way, the battle continues.

Blogger Rick November 08, 2016 7:59 AM  

Sub, another difference I see between now and 2008 is that the average voter knew very little about Obama then. He was a blank slate (Hope and change) onto which you could project your fondest desires.
Even by 2012, if your primary source for news was ABC nightly and such, you still only had 4 years of background on the guy and negatives were still rumors or could be shrugged off. But with Hillary we have 30 years of knowing her.
If we weren't being invaded, and she wasn't a criminal, I'd vote against her simply because I'm sick of seeing her stupid face so much.

Blogger Azimus November 08, 2016 8:03 AM  

St. Cloud was the most beautiful town in the upper Midwest, barring my own town on Lake Michigan, that is. I used to stop there as a mid-way point to visiting my then-girlfriend, now-wife where she went to school at MSUM Morehead (basically Fargo). Very friendly people, very welcoming town. This may have been their undoing... I would hesitate to visit little Somalia now. It is sad, to watch our country grow sick like this. To have our noblest attributes turned against us by our so-called leaders, to our hurt. Maybe Trump wins, maybe he loses. But he brought the evil that the globalists are doing to our people out from the shadows of the internet and dropped it right into the laps of every voter in this country and told them to choose. In 2016, we can't shrug this stuff off as conjecture or conspiracy theory anymore. Now, we vote on it.

Blogger Azimus November 08, 2016 8:03 AM  

I said in an older thread that Wikileaks/Project Veritas/some of the work that VD and others are doing is the equivalent of Ezekiel 8 - where God takes Ezekiel into the bowels of the Temple to show him the things that happen in secret. After that, God's Glory left the Temple forever. Today, around 3,000 years later - we have an advantage over Ezekiel - God is letting us vote to decide whether His Glory remains with us or depart elsewhere. I am praying for the former, and by lunch I will have "pulled the lever" for same.

Blogger Whisker biscuit November 08, 2016 8:04 AM  

In KY voting. Trump central here. Teenagers sporting Trump hats!

Blogger Sillon Bono November 08, 2016 8:05 AM  

Make us proud people!!!!

Blogger Mighty Lou November 08, 2016 8:06 AM  

Yes, tune out the MSM today. If you must have updates Infowars is covering the election live all day today and into tomorrow on their website and youtube channel.

Blogger Cicatrizatic November 08, 2016 8:07 AM  

Ralston's analysis of NV early voting completely forgets to allocate Independents and cross-over vote. See thread here:

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=12806804&postID=3574537851059978446

Blogger Cash November 08, 2016 8:10 AM  

It's a day like this I wished I lived in a swing state.

Blogger dc.sunsets November 08, 2016 8:10 AM  

Given recent revelations about child sex trafficking in Washington DC, I'm now forced to admit that there are apparently TWO portals that lead directly to hell; the triangle-shaped pentagram whose vertices are Chicago City Hall, The Dirksen Federal Building & the Thompson State of Illinois Building was already well known.

The political center of every reliable source of Blue State electoral votes is in all likelihood a major or minor portal to hell.

It truly sucks to live in IL.

Anonymous Sub November 08, 2016 8:10 AM  

@26

Agreed. Can you imagine having to listen to that horrible screeching voice for four years? I would be tempted to put my ears out.

Fortunately, it's not going to happen. Over my lifetime, I've watched transplants from CA and the Northeast transform Denver from a nice Midwest city into another hipster coastal shithole, I can't wait to drink their tears tomorrow when their lack of enthusiasm for the flying reptile Rodan allows CO to go back to red the way it should be.

Anonymous Rabid VFM November 08, 2016 8:11 AM  

South Central PA reporting in. Over 80 souls in our small, rural township in line before the polls opened. The most I've evcer seen in 32 years here. PA for Trumps win!

Anonymous Roundtine November 08, 2016 8:11 AM  

My prediction mimics mine from August, which is Clinton 323 Trump 226. (Clinton takes MI, FL, NC, VA, PA, NH, NV and CO but loses OH and AZ). My secondary fallback is Trump takes 1EV for Maine's 2nd district (322 v 227).

dh, are you basing this on a turnout model?

Blogger Leo Littlebook in Shenzhen November 08, 2016 8:13 AM  

When you think about it, Hillary's done a damned thorough job of building transdimensional diplomatic ties with Earth's reigning superpower.

For/to the children? What difference does it make?

Anonymous Roundtine November 08, 2016 8:13 AM  

Yes, tune out the MSM today.

I turned on the MSM today, got so triggered I went out and voted again.

Blogger Mighty Lou November 08, 2016 8:13 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Mighty Lou November 08, 2016 8:14 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Anonymous Praying for the Trumpslide November 08, 2016 8:14 AM  

I did my part in my tiny town to vote, in Michigan. If the reports about Macomb County going for Trump are true, then Michigan goes red! I even took a picture of my ballot to make sure that I have proof I voted for Trump. Still praying for the Trumpslide! I don't care how close it is, as long as he wins, that's all I care about. My family and I have prayed every night for months that Trump would be elected.

Blogger dc.sunsets November 08, 2016 8:15 AM  

Today I'll continue yesterday's pull back from the Commentariat (even stuff that echoes what I want to hear), do some yard work, wait for my wife to return home from work and then go vote for whatever that is worth.

We'll see what tomorrow brings, tomorrow. I have no intention of so much as turning on the Idiot Box tonight. It will be the equivalent of ESPN-politics version, and I don't want to have to replace my Boob Tube because I put a huge hole in it.

Anonymous Achilles (at work) November 08, 2016 8:15 AM  

Lines out the door at polling places in western Chicago suburbs. Not usual. That favors Trump right? No enthusiasm for Killary.

Blogger Cicatrizatic November 08, 2016 8:16 AM  

@dh

Question for you: in 2012, the RCP national average missed by 3.2 points. Yes, I realize that it was Obama who outperformed the polls, but I don't think transfers to Hillary. In 2012, there were very few undecideds, just 3-4%. This election has been more volatile, and there are still about 10% undecided/unallocated in the 2-way average. Why are you confident that the national average will be more accurate than ever?

Blogger James Dixon November 08, 2016 8:23 AM  

Now if this were the map the polls had been pushing all along, I'd have believed them. Again, for dh's benefit, this is why I don't believe the polls. They've done exactly this type of song and dance my entire life. The only ones you can count on to be even halfway accurate is the final ones. The rest are propaganda. And in this case, given the way the media has been acting this entire election, I don't even trust the final ones.

Blogger Shitlord Numéro Uno November 08, 2016 8:23 AM  

Pretty extreme, considering that most pollsters are thinking the GOP retains the Senate.

Anonymous mature-Craig November 08, 2016 8:24 AM  

I just voted for Trump. I also voted for two Jewish people and I got a warm fuzzy feeling like I was pleasing ancient Hebrew spirits.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr November 08, 2016 8:25 AM  

Pat Caddell had a piece over at the Fix News site in which he made the point that Trump and Sanders are not one-time wonders. He thinks they both reflect a deeper issue - that the middle class in the U.S. is being shoved downward. Particularly the lower middle class. Interestingly, Bill Clinton had a similar observation - that the middle class has not seen a pay raise in eight years.

There's a big lesson here for the GOP. Trump is showing them how to win. Take his platform, run a candidate with executive branch experience and campaign smarts on it, and it won't even be close.

Anonymous J. J. November 08, 2016 8:27 AM  

Friends in Pennsylvania report the longest voting lines they've ever seen. A good sign... people don't get all that excited to come out and vote for a soon-to-be corpse like Hillary.

Anonymous Baseball Savant November 08, 2016 8:29 AM  

Indiana here and the voting turnout is incredible. Lines out of the door where we vote. All white people. The Trump talk is overwhelming.

Anonymous Roundtine November 08, 2016 8:33 AM  

Enthusiasm is important for Republicans who have to get themselves to the polls. When it comes to Democrat enthusiasm, it's the people who drive the buses and offer minority voters free cigarettes and Burger King who matter.

Blogger dh November 08, 2016 8:36 AM  

Question for you: in 2012, the RCP national average missed by 3.2 points. Yes, I realize that it was Obama who outperformed the polls, but I don't think transfers to Hillary. In 2012, there were very few undecideds, just 3-4%. This election has been more volatile, and there are still about 10% undecided/unallocated in the 2-way average. Why are you confident that the national average will be more accurate than ever?

My prediction is based on the average of state polls. The model I follow closely though is different from the RCP one, which puts it's hand on the thumbs in how it weights the results.

Discounting the front-runner effect against Hillary is a subjective choice I prefer not to make. It is a misconception that this election has been volatile. Trump has never had a consistent lead in front Clinton. A few polls here and there have shown her down for short periods of time, but the average of all polls either national or EV based have never shown her behind. When a small group or number of polls shows a result different from similar polls that's an outlier. It's always possible an outlier will be the correct prediction, but it's a small probability, usually in the 1-5% range. The smart bet is on the median of all scientific polls.

Why are you confident that the national average will be more accurate than ever?

I haven't followed the national popular vote before today closely since the primaries ended. They are totally irrelevant. My prediction on that is by far my biggest header.

Blogger VD November 08, 2016 8:38 AM  

My prediction mimics mine from August, which is Clinton 323 Trump 226. (Clinton takes MI, FL, NC, VA, PA, NH, NV and CO but loses OH and AZ). My secondary fallback is Trump takes 1EV for Maine's 2nd district (322 v 227).

Standing pat? Bold move. We'll find out soon enough.

Blogger dh November 08, 2016 8:39 AM  

Now if this were the map the polls had been pushing all along, I'd have believed them. Again, for dh's benefit, this is why I don't believe the polls. They've done exactly this type of song and dance my entire life. The only ones you can count on to be even halfway accurate is the final ones. The rest are propaganda. And in this case, given the way the media has been acting this entire election, I don't even trust the final ones.

Your problem is with the electorate, not the polls. People don't make up their mind. Everyone here has been obsessing over this election for six months. We are the tiny minority. The majority decided between innings of the World Series.

I know your opinion, you know my opinion. To cut through the fog of media, it's helpful to ignore all the horse race spin they put on things. They are incented to tell people this race is "down to the wire". They always say that it's "down to the wire", even when the race is well contoured and not especially close. Many people believed it, even claiming when the final polls came out that McCain was going to win (He lost by 10M votes).

Anonymous mature-Craig November 08, 2016 8:41 AM  

Also, I still feel bad about that comment I made about the democratic party yesterday, I hit them so hard. hope they are OK. They are not as bad I make them out to be I think.

Blogger dh November 08, 2016 8:43 AM  

Bold or mathematically sound. We'll see is true. I hate election day in the US because the media can't help themselves. There isn't one shred of news between now and 8PM ET. They should show the burning yule log, or infomercials, or porn.

Anonymous Cadwallander J November 08, 2016 8:43 AM  

Steve, your post made my day.

And so says Gandalf - 'Stand, Men of the West! Stand and wait! This is the hour of doom.'

Anonymous Roundtine November 08, 2016 8:44 AM  

Pretty extreme, considering that most pollsters are thinking the GOP retains the Senate.

The only way this happens is if GOP voters are going to cost Republicans the presidency. Married white women vote Clinton to have the first female president, but vote GOP down ballot.

A few months ago, the GOP was worried about Trump bringing in Democrats who would vote D down ballot and hurt the GOP's Senate chances.

Blogger seeingsights November 08, 2016 8:46 AM  

I'm voting in enemy territory (Chicago). Lines seem most like yr 2000 voting. Black turnout from what I see is along historical norms.

Anonymous Sam the Man November 08, 2016 8:49 AM  

DH,

you dodged my question about where you got the 450,000 additional Hispanic voters in Florida.

To repeat:

I do not buy your comment about 450,000 additional Hispanic votes this time around. I simply do not see the motivation, as we know the Hispanic vote should trend democratic.

Look at Hillarie's rallies. To get folks to come out, they are making them free concerts with Bruce Springsteen, Katie Perry and other leftists. So the main draw is musicians with Hillary in the wings.

All the polls I see seem to indicate a 11 to 12 % drop off in Black votes. Of the blacks voting, between 10 an 17 % seem to be voting for Trump, with another 2 to 3 % voting elsewhere.

So the actual black support for Hillary is around 81 to 84 % of 55 % of the eligible black voters, when Obama got around 93 to 94% of 66% of the eligible black voters.

Your figure that Hispanics are producing an additional 450,000 votes in Florida seems to be wishful thinking. Here is my source:

http://www.pewhispanic.org/fact-sheets/2016-state-election-fact-sheets/latinos-in-the-2016-election-florida/

So far from producing an additional 450,000 Hispanic registered voters, since 2012 in Florida, Hispanic registration went from 1.66 million to 1.795 million. Of the 135,000 additional voters, only 678,000 were registered democratic in 2016, whereas in 2012 645,000 were, a net gain of 33,000 registered democrats. But republican registered Hispanic voters went up by 3,000 and unaffiliated went up by 97,000, with the remaining 2,000 voters being other parties.

The turn out in 2012 was around 72% overall, no figure found on Hispanic voters alone. For the Hispanic population to produce 450,000 additional votes in 2016 assuming 72% turn out this election, would mean only 50.7% voted in 2012. If they were that low in 2012, I see no motivating force to get them to come out with around 50% higher participation rate.

What say you?

Blogger Stilicho November 08, 2016 8:50 AM  

Gladly did my part this morning to help the God-Emperor ascend the Cherry Blossom Throne.

Anonymous Faceless November 08, 2016 8:52 AM  

From a township in Michigan:

I arrived a half hour before the doors opened. I was around 100th in line. We have a number of precincts; I was the 26th to vote in mine. When I left, all parking was full, all lanes were full, the cars were backed up down the block; people competed for my parking space. When I left, the line was again overflowing out the back and around the building, but this time, as lines for each precinct of 100+ deep.

Talk in line was about Trump winning popular vote, Hillary getting a squeaker in the electoral college. Lots of grim determination.

Blogger Undocumented Pharmacist November 08, 2016 8:52 AM  

There's a big lesson here for the GOP. Trump is showing them how to win. Take his platform, run a candidate with executive branch experience and campaign smarts on it, and it won't even be close.

I think we now know that the GOP isn't interested in what we're interested in. They're happy to be junior partners with the DNC as long as they get their turn at the trough.

Anonymous Faceless November 08, 2016 8:53 AM  

Oh, and there were threats about voting selfies - they didn't want MAGA3x tweet your vote - we were told they would arrest if you took a picture in the polling room.

Anonymous mature-Craig November 08, 2016 8:56 AM  

re *;41, see what precipitated that comment was this...

a few days ago I am watching CNN and they are talking FBI directory James Comey. And I hear not one reason why he shouldn't puruse a case against her. It seems the only thing stopping it is that =the democrats don't want that- but its not supposed to work that way, it cant just be, -what the democrats want- it has to be what are the rules and the laws... so they start talking all this bs about how bad James Comey is... and the whoe things just got me really upset and that's what led to that comment yesterday.

anyway, peace

Anonymous #8601 November 08, 2016 8:56 AM  

Merry Trumpmas, everyone!

Blogger Horn of the Mark November 08, 2016 9:00 AM  

Ride out with me.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kzvAAAHVFBI

Blogger Mighty Lou November 08, 2016 9:02 AM  

I'm having Trump rally withdrawals!

Anonymous Faceless November 08, 2016 9:02 AM  

By way of comparison, with Romney, I was #56 to vote having arrived 45 minutes after the polls opened.

Anonymous BGKB November 08, 2016 9:07 AM  

Steve's prediction: it will be as if a million shrill, lispy voices cried out in terror, and were suddenly silenced.

I can guarantee those lispy voices will be wailing for weeks.

Hillary Clinton and Huma will seek asylum in the Saudi embassy, but end up sold as sex slaves to some blind sheikh.

Even the blind sheikh wouldn't touch that.

Also, I still feel bad about that comment I made about the democratic party yesterday

They are not all pedo cannibals but all pedo cannibals are _______

Look at Hillarie's rallies. To get folks to come out, they are making them free concerts

even funnier most left after the Jayzee concert

they didn't want MAGA3x tweet your vote - we were told they would arrest if you took a picture in the polling room

Should yell "Without Voter ID how will you know if you arrested the right person?" or" Will they stop the ACORN busses from taking homeless to vote at every district in Die Verse City?"

Blogger dh November 08, 2016 9:08 AM  

Sam, you are under the impression I owe you something. I owe you nothing.

> you dodged my question about where you got the 450,000 additional Hispanic voters in Florida.

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politics/latinos-voter-turnout-early-voting-2016-election/

In 2014, 120,263 latinos voted early. In 2016, that number is 596,146. Even over 2012, which was a Presidential year, the number is up by 336k. A lot of new Hispanics voted early this year. They are breaking 57-43 against Trump, or maybe 60-30, depending on the poll.

Your source is from January.

The turn out in 2012 was around 72% overall, no figure found on Hispanic voters alone. For the Hispanic population to produce 450,000 additional votes in 2016 assuming 72% turn out this election, would mean only 50.7% voted in 2012. If they were that low in 2012, I see no motivating force to get them to come out with around 50% higher participation rate.

Hispanics turn out at around 50%. Looking at registered voters is ill-advised, almost all the gains in the black and Latino vote are from registered voters becoming actual voters.

Anonymous Broken Arrow November 08, 2016 9:09 AM  

dh gave the best reminder about the news of the day. Turn off the TV and Internet about the election go out and enjoy life, and check about 9-10 PM tonight and see who won. Your day will be better for it.

Also, there is one thing for certain more than one predictive model which has been very good in the past will be broken tonight.

Anonymous Darth Dharmakīrti November 08, 2016 9:09 AM  

@dh

One thing you've said repeatedly is there was no Brexit polling miss because the polls were correct but misinterpreted/spun. I didn't dig too deep into the data, but I noticed the final FT poll of polls had "Remain" +2%, and what I saw elsewhere seemed to roughly corroborate that result, which to me indicates that the problem was indeed with the final polls (only one of which called "Leave," and by less than the actual margin) rather than with how they were being interpreted. What am I not getting?

Blogger Johnny November 08, 2016 9:15 AM  

@70
Aside from manipulation which is rampant early on, the polling people can not easily measure enthusiasm. The side that has more engaged people will pick up a couple of percentage points. In the case of England, the leave category picked up more than 2%, and I expect the same for Trump. He will outdo the polls by a little. Other things equal I see his election now likely, although closer than I care for.

Blogger YIH November 08, 2016 9:16 AM  

Cash wrote:It's a day like this I wished I lived in a swing state.
Be careful what you wish for.

Anonymous AzDesertRat November 08, 2016 9:16 AM  

Standing in line at polling station in Phoenix. At least a 30 minute wait. Line is overwhelmingly white (90+%) Given the fact that it is 7:15am here, and how people are dressed, i'd say it is breaking 70/30 to Trump. Also, a steady stream of people dropping off their early ballots in person.

Blogger Jamie-R November 08, 2016 9:18 AM  

TOM BRADY IS TRULY CAPTAIN AMERICA. NOW WE KNOW WHY GOODELL BATTLED HIM. HE IS AMERICA FIRST.

Blogger Johnny November 08, 2016 9:18 AM  

Given the current social environment I anticipate that for Trump to win he has to pick up a little more than a win by one state with a very close vote. Looks to me like he will do it.

Blogger dh November 08, 2016 9:20 AM  

I didn't dig too deep into the data, but I noticed the final FT poll of polls had "Remain" +2%

Right, this is a correct prediction. The MoE was 3.9%, if I remember right, with a 95% CI. That means there is a 95% chance the result will fall between +/-3.9% of the indicated result, which was 2%. The final vote result was 51.9% Leave. Therefore the actual error in the final poll was very small.

The correct reporting of the poll was not "narrowly remain" or "remain in a squeaker", it was "tied" or "a tie" or alternatively "too close to call".

Blogger The Other Robot November 08, 2016 9:24 AM  

They are incented to tell people this race is "down to the wire". They always say that it's "down to the wire", even when the race is well contoured and not especially close. Many people believed it, even claiming when the final polls came out that McCain was going to win (He lost by 10M votes).

Which they are you referring to here?

As far as I can tell, the lying MSM have been telling us all along up to now that Hillary would win in a landslide.

Just recently they started confirming the rumors about statanic rituals by denying them.

Finally, they admit that it is close.

Maybe they have underestimated the anti-Hillary determination out there. Maybe I have overestimated it. Maybe the voting fraud will pull it out for her. We will see.

Where's farmer tom, BTW. Was he just another Soros-paid shill?

Blogger Mister Jorge November 08, 2016 9:24 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Mister Jorge November 08, 2016 9:25 AM  

I don't trust the other news sites... not even the ones I used to think I could trust. Vox, I'm only following this page for updates on the election. THanks for the work you put into it here.

Blogger Nate November 08, 2016 9:25 AM  

What's lends some credibility to the Trafalgar polls is they are showing the 3rd party candidates getting 3rd party sized votes.

Blogger Mindcrime2015 November 08, 2016 9:26 AM  

I live south of Rochester MN. I see hundreds of Trump signs in southern MN and I have seen exactly 2 Hillary signs the whole summer. One of them by the electrical workers union hall and one by some ghetto apartment buildings filled with Somali's.

Blogger Nate November 08, 2016 9:27 AM  

"Where's farmer tom, BTW. Was he just another Soros-paid shill?"

shut up moron. Farmer Tom's been commenting here for as long as I can remember. Which means he probably started commenting in 2003.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 08, 2016 9:28 AM  

Small data point but over at FreeRepublic the observations are of good turnout

Blogger Unknown November 08, 2016 9:29 AM  

Wish you guys all the best from Germany!

Blogger dh November 08, 2016 9:30 AM  

They I mean other people here:

https://voxday.blogspot.com/2008/10/simmering-mccain-upset.html
http://voxday.blogspot.com/2008/11/presidential-prediction-mccain-wins.html

As far as I can tell, the lying MSM have been telling us all along up to now that Hillary would win in a landslide.

Probably right, the media is stupid. And corrupt. But that has nothing to do with if the data shows what it shows. The media can be lying and stupid and wrong and Trump can still lose handily.

Finally, they admit that it is close.
If you didn't trust them before, why trust them now? They have a bias to make it close, so people will watch their news reporting of the very close most important election ever.

Blogger Shimshon November 08, 2016 9:30 AM  

Nate, I don't think commenting started here before 2004.

Blogger allyn71 November 08, 2016 9:32 AM  

@ The Other Robot

Where's farmer tom, BTW. Was he just another Soros-paid shill?

Did something happen to you or were you just born stupid. Farmer Tom has been here a hell of a lot longer than you.

Anonymous WS November 08, 2016 9:33 AM  

I'll be skeptical of a PA win until the last vote is counted. The GOTV machine in Philadelphia ALWAYS comes through - I've seen them literally threaten people in order to get them to vote. Very ugly in Philly on national election days.

Having said that - if by some miracle Trump takes PA - he'll likely run away with the election as the factors that carried him to victory over Philadelphia and surrounding counties would most likely result in him running the table in the other battleground states.

Blogger Student in Blue November 08, 2016 9:33 AM  

@dh
My prediction mimics mine from August, which is Clinton 323 Trump 226. (Clinton takes MI, FL, NC, VA, PA, NH, NV and CO but loses OH and AZ). My secondary fallback is Trump takes 1EV for Maine's 2nd district (322 v 227).

Clinton takes popular vote by 3.0%. Democrats pickup the Senate 51 to 49, with New Hampshire tilting it towards the Democrats. Democrats pickup 6 seats in the House, but still retain the minority.


Bold move, cotton. We'll see how it shakes out.

I think I'm on the record of saying 300-329 EV for Trump, but that's entirely instinct rather than based on numbers. Regardless, we'll see who's closer.

Blogger swiftfoxmark2 November 08, 2016 9:36 AM  

In my mind, VA is a toss up and may swing red this year. I was out at the polls in Fairfax and there were a lot of people lined up. Granted, this is the highly educated aristocrat class, so they may have been all voting for Hilary.

But I don't think I've seen such long lines at this polling station is a while. The thing about Romney and McCain is, they encourage many Republicans to stay home. Trump doesn't do that and between his energy and Hilary's amazing ability to one-up herself in scandals on a weekly basis, I think more people are motivated to vote Republican.

Hell, my parents' neighborhood in Prince William county is nothing but Trump signs. Their next door neighbor is even voting Trump where he normally votes Democrat.

Blogger James Dixon November 08, 2016 9:36 AM  

> Your problem is with the electorate, not the polls. People don't make up their mind.

I can count on one hand the people I've ever known who didn't know how they were going to vote in the national races as soon as they primaries were done. Most people do know how they're going to vote. They may not be willing to admit it.

Blogger Nara November 08, 2016 9:37 AM  

Good luck from your cousin in the UK!

Anonymous lurker November 08, 2016 9:38 AM  

"Nate, I don't think commenting started here before 2004."

Nate was commenting on here during the civil war when he was fighting off the Yanks.

Blogger Arrgh November 08, 2016 9:39 AM  

Where's a good site to watch the results? Any accuracy and/or honesty left out there?

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) November 08, 2016 9:40 AM  

My prediction is that the 538 forecast will be correct.

Anecdotally, on my drive to the office this morning I passed only one house with Trump signs and three with Clinton signs. I noticed very few cars with bumper stickers, and they were split 50-50.

My county is 70-30 republican.

Blogger praetorian November 08, 2016 9:40 AM  

Regardless what happens, consider: this could have been ¡JEB! .v Clinton

We've had some fun.

HAIL VICTORY

Blogger Student in Blue November 08, 2016 9:42 AM  

@Josh
State?

For what it's worth I'm pretty sure IL will remain Clinton as well.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) November 08, 2016 9:42 AM  

Where's a good site to watch the results? Any accuracy and/or honesty left out there?

https://mobile.twitter.com/DecisionDeskHQ

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) November 08, 2016 9:42 AM  

State?

TN...south of Nashville.

Blogger Balázs Varga November 08, 2016 9:43 AM  

I think the race will be close to a tie, with corruption and soros tipping it over. Hopefully I'm wrong.

Blogger Whisker biscuit November 08, 2016 9:43 AM  

Given what we know from the WikiLeaks, I'm predicting--if she slides by today--Hilldog will eventually push for a drop in the age of sexual consent. It's the only deviant sexual avenue left to pursue, besides beastility. That's last. Then God burns this rathole.

Blogger DemonicProfessorEl November 08, 2016 9:46 AM  

Whisker biscuit wrote:Given what we know from the WikiLeaks, I'm predicting--if she slides by today--Hilldog will eventually push for a drop in the age of sexual consent. It's the only deviant sexual avenue left to pursue, besides beastility. That's last. Then God burns this rathole.

Get official human sacrifice in there as well (which they're halfway to doing anyway), then yep.

Anonymous Roundtine November 08, 2016 9:46 AM  

Brexit polling showed the race tightening, most polls showed Remain in the lead, but Leave led in 1/3 of the final 100 polls (March to June). I thought Remain would win because it looked like a tossup, the very late polling broke in Remain's favor, and almost every chance voters have had to choose independence or a break from the status quo, they have chosen status quo.

I don't think the polling in the presidential race is wrong in the sense of being propaganda (outside of the outlier polls like the WaPo/ABC). If it is wrong, it's because voters are lying about their intentions, particularly Dems who will crossover for Trump, or the turnout assumptions are wrong. The Dems do have a demographic advantage already and if they can turn out all their supporters, they already have the numbers on their side. The Dems haven't dominated yet because Hispanics haven't been reliable voters.

Anonymous a deplorable rubberducky November 08, 2016 9:48 AM  

Report from my precinct in Fairfax County, Northern Virginia, extremely blue Hillaryland: Turnout was very light this morning. It was nothing compared to what I faced in 2008 and 2012. If my precinct is indicative of turnout across this county, Hillary will win it easily but without the numbers she's targeted for victory in VA.

Meanwhile radio reports from Loudoun, Fauquier and Prince William Counties describe long lines and heavy turnout. That's great news, those are the most Trump-favorable of all the Northern Virginia counties.

Blogger Marty November 08, 2016 9:48 AM  

Out the door in Northern Ky. I've never waited more than 5 minutes to vote before and I vote early. Today it took about 25 minutes.

Anonymous Ejk November 08, 2016 9:49 AM  

In regards to MN, last week, I was driving up France Ave between Southdale and Uptown. Not a single Clinton sign, or Ellison for that matter. There were tons of Johnson signs and several Drake signs (guy who is running against Ellison for Congress). That's in a SJW area. It is possible for Trump to win Minnesota.

Blogger dh November 08, 2016 9:50 AM  

Regardless what happens, consider: this could have been ¡JEB! .v Clinton

Hey, actually, I think no matter the outcome of this election, we've had three really important developments:

1. The most money doesn't win. Jeb tried to scare off the field with his $100m warchest before the first vote. It was all for waste. His $ per vote number was a joke. This also holds true for Trump. I think he'll lose, but he was vastly outspent. I don't know the final number, but probably something like 2-to-1. Money isn't the king, the message is the king. A good message will overcome a lot of money.

2. Gaffe's are only as bad as you let them be. All these politicians who get heat for gaffe's or mistakes, use the Trump model, and double down or worse, tell the reporter to go fuck themselves. You aren't your gaffe. You aren't your mistake. Own what you say, say what you want, and let it fly.

3. `Racism` as a tool against conservatives is over as a thing. There's a holdout base who cares, but that's it. No one else cares.

Anonymous Roundtine November 08, 2016 9:50 AM  

My prediction is that the 538 forecast will be correct.

538 is the demographic forecast. FL, and PA or MI flipping, is the white voter surge than will delay it by 4 or 8 years. If Trump loses, Texas and Arizona will soon join the growing Blue areas in the Southwest.

Blogger ZhukovG November 08, 2016 9:50 AM  

Since I am between contracts and have already voted, I think I will spend the day playing Fallout 4. A pleasant diversion or possibly practice if the worst happens.

Ad Victoriam! Ave Imperator Trump!

Blogger James Dixon November 08, 2016 9:51 AM  

The stock market indexes opened down this morning. That's probably a sign that they're uncertain about the election result. If they start rising in the afternoon it probably means the money people think Hillary will win. If they stay down, it probably means they think Trump will win.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr November 08, 2016 9:52 AM  

One other point that Pat Caddell made was that the 1980 Presidential vote swung rapidly to Reagan in the last weekend. Admittedly, that cycle didn't have the daily polling that we have now, but I suspect the polling was a lot less dishonest.

Blogger SteveK November 08, 2016 9:52 AM  

"As if the nation is enduring a curse"
What's next, "rain frogs"?

http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2016/11/07/schieffer-election-eve/

Blogger Shimshon November 08, 2016 9:52 AM  

It was here that I learned how phenomenally idiotic it was for the Recucks to rally around a Mormon as the nominee. Even though Obama was only phoning it in in 2012, and he was unpopular to boot, picking a Mormon had to be an enthusiasm killer.

I don't necessarily think that past performance is indicative of future expectations.

But as well, the signage metric is not really very good either. Ron Paul was trouncing everyone in that regard in 2008 and 2012, from what I remember, and we see how that ended up both times.

Based on what I'm reading, and the "no toss up state" map, I think it's still entirely possible, even likely, that Trump takes at least one blue state from her and wins.

Blogger Ransom Smith November 08, 2016 9:52 AM  

Just got back from my polling place. District is lots of poor whites and blacks.

Polls weren't super crowded by 9:30 when I went. But almost all whites whatever that means.

I feel like Trump takes VA.

Blogger Alex November 08, 2016 9:54 AM  

Voted this morning west of Cincinnati. Volunteer said that people starting lining up 30 minutes before polls opened at 6:30. 1.5 hour wait. I got there at 7:50, voted around 8:20. I passed two other voting locations dropping the kids at school. All full.

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr November 08, 2016 9:55 AM  

dh, I'd add a fourth development:

4. The Democrats have abandoned their traditional lower-middle-class white base. The Republicans have an opportunity to take it over.

Blogger Alexamenos November 08, 2016 9:57 AM  

Headed out to vote for a major party candidate. Last time I did that was '92. #maga

Anonymous Napoleon 12pdr November 08, 2016 9:58 AM  

Shimshon, I don't think Romney being a Mormon did anything. His being a center-leftist from MA killed his campaign stone cold dead.

Let's face it, if we were describing the Ideal Republican Candidate, selection criteria #1 is Can Win His Home State. Criteria #3 is Is Acceptable To The Base.

Blogger Johnny November 08, 2016 9:59 AM  

@76

Going by your numbers the chance of picking up the Brexit vote they got (or more) was only 5%. My take on it is that with reasonable certainty there was an error, although a small one.

By way of background, I have long noticed that outliers occur more often then they should in many forms of statistical analysis. (You know, you get the once every 100 years flood every 20 years or whatever.) The core problem is that the analysis is only spot on for the data set used. As the future is not in that data set there is often this chance event stuff that comes along, throwing off accuracy.

Blogger OGRE November 08, 2016 10:02 AM  

Trump 300 to 315 (depending on NV and CO). Trump takes NH, PA, and MI and the one district in ME, but not VA. The NoVa, Charlottesville, Richmond votes outweigh Norfolk and Western VA too much anymore.

PA remains "too close to call" and may end up in recount/lawsuits, but Trump takes MI and makes it moot. The Dems weren't planning to have to work in MI so their Make Up The Vote machine isn't in operation there like it is in PA. Trump would take PA by 3 if it weren't for the Philly fraud machine; Clinton squeaks by in Pittsburgh but not by nearly as much as a Dem candidate could normally expect to.

Blogger SemiSpook37 November 08, 2016 10:02 AM  

Early voted last week in Anne Arundel County, MD. It's reliably red as far as MD counties go. Line for the station took about an hour to get through to the actual vote. I got there at roughly 6 PM, when I left at 7:15, the line was still at least an hour to get through, and people were still showing up. Where I live, it's just south of Baltimore, so there's a bleeding of the black demographic in northern AAC. Annapolis holds another concentration, and you probably get some folks in and around Fort Meade and Laurel, but other than those places, it's still relatively white. Probably not as much as it was when I first moved here, but still significant enough that it's not a worry to others.

I work up in Harford County, which is another reliably red MD county, and between there and AA, I've only seen maybe 3-4 D candidate stickers on cars throughout the entire election season. Elsewhere, it's been Trump. I think the only real concentration of signs for the others that I saw was in Montgomery County, specifically Bethesda and Silver Spring, and even that wasn't a lot.

Conventional wisdom is that MD will go D because of the concentrations in MoCo, PG, and Baltimore City, with some support from Frederick, Howard, and Baltimore Counties, but with the national polls so close, anything can happen. We shall see.

Anonymous genericviews November 08, 2016 10:03 AM  

I Hope Virginia pulls for Trump. But it is a lost hope. I have seen the demographic shift. Between immigrants from the third world and from communist northern states, Virginia doesn't have a chance.

Anonymous Sensei November 08, 2016 10:04 AM  

@118 "Shimshon, I don't think Romney being a Mormon did anything"

It lost him my vote for one, and it weakened his support across his potential base. To what extent it did so compared to his being a center leftist is impossible to say, but it definitely hurt him some.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 08, 2016 10:04 AM  

With Brady and Bellechek can we lose?

Anonymous Roundtine November 08, 2016 10:07 AM  

Republicans vote early because they do it before they go to work.

Dems don't start voting until late morning.

Minorities are bused in late in the evening, and Dems sometimes get judges to keep polls open so they can bus more in.

Blogger OGRE November 08, 2016 10:08 AM  

@118 Considering that Romney was the second-whitest man in America--next to John McCain of course--he never stood a chance against a black candidate. And the GOPe knew that from the start. McCain, Romney, and Dole were never intended to be competetive; all three were sacrificial lambs. This year it was supposed to be Jeb and the proles would have a choice between a Bush or a Clinton and the elite wouldn't have cared either way who won--heads I win tails you lose. But Trump through a YUUGE fucking wrench into those monkey works.

Blogger Shimshon November 08, 2016 10:09 AM  

@118 There were numerous comments here at the time about some Christians would NEVER vote for a Mormon. I think that was a factor. He was a lousy candidate for other reasons too. But no question his religious affiliation hurt.

Anonymous Instasetting November 08, 2016 10:09 AM  

Josh, I'm in the area.

I can recall two maybe three Hillary signs in the area in the whole campaign...and one said 'Hillary for Prison' so I'm going to mark that as a Trump voter.

Tennessee is likely to go even more crimson than last time. (See, ya'll in uncivilized states wish to go 'Red', but here, its not 'go red', but a question of 'how red can one be?'

Blogger Mr.MantraMan November 08, 2016 10:10 AM  

dh's comment about "racist" spot on, once that bit of taboo is broken the left is in trouble

Blogger OGRE November 08, 2016 10:11 AM  

@128 should we take bets on which state burns the reddest? Hoping my state of WV wins that prize.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 08, 2016 10:13 AM  

Where's farmer tom, BTW. Was he just another Soros-paid shill?

Definitely not. Farmer Tom is a good guy who just really, really hates Donald Trump.

Blogger dh November 08, 2016 10:13 AM  

4. The Democrats have abandoned their traditional lower-middle-class white base. The Republicans have an opportunity to take it over.

This is a great one. The Democrats are the brown lady party now. If I were the GOP, I'd just take out ads for Democrats in areas with uneasy whites that show all the colors of the party, in an endless loop.

Anonymous Silly But True November 08, 2016 10:15 AM  

@Johnny

The "100 year (storm/flood/whatever)" has reasonably getting a lot of discussion probably triggering with Katrina.

The problem is not related to outliers, the problem is simple misunderstanding of the probabilities associated with event return periods: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/100-year_flood

Put simply: "A common misunderstanding exists that a 100-year flood is likely to occur only once in a 100-year period. In fact, there is approximately a 63.4% chance of one or more 100-year floods occurring in any 100-year period."

Or put more simply with less precision, everyone is going to experience at least one or more 100 year events in their lifetime.

FEMA has been trying to enlighten people by putting it in more practical terms: "a 100-year flood has about 26% chance of occurring within 30-year fixed mortgage. (About triple the risk of a fire occurring in same time frame)" http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2008/08/100year_storm_moniker_misleadi.html

Blogger James Dixon November 08, 2016 10:19 AM  

> 4. The Democrats have abandoned their traditional lower-middle-class white base.

They did that decades ago. But sometimes it takes people a while to figure these things out.

Blogger OGRE November 08, 2016 10:25 AM  

@134 Its the union vote. Which was never about things like tranny rights and later term abortions. As the Dems moved left they started bleeding union voters, and with the destruction of the manufacturing class theres necessarily a whole lot less union members in the first place. Anymore the Dems don't even pretend to care about the blue-collar worker and instead sneer at them as fly-over trash.

Anonymous Rizzo November 08, 2016 10:27 AM  

Longest voting lines I've ever seen in Pittsburgh

Blogger pyrrhus November 08, 2016 10:31 AM  

Greg Cochran gives Trump a 5 point "social desirability bias"...https://westhunt.wordpress.com/2016/11/08/social-desirability-bias/

Blogger pyrrhus November 08, 2016 10:32 AM  

"Given what we know from the WikiLeaks, I'm predicting--if she slides by today--Hilldog will eventually push for a drop in the age of sexual consent. It's the only deviant sexual avenue left to pursue, besides beastility. That's last. Then God burns this rathole."

You forgot sacrificing babies, up to 6 years old, to Moloch....

Anonymous Greg November 08, 2016 10:33 AM  

Anyone in Philadelphia (or PA) that can confirm voter intimidation in Philadelphia? Lots about it on Twitter.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 08, 2016 10:33 AM  

3. `Racism` as a tool against conservatives is over as a thing.

Indeed. It could still affect this election, if raciss-frightened cuckservatives are able to swing anything. But if they do, it's the last time they'll have any influence on anything. Which was probably the case anyway.

Solid observations on #1 and #2 as well.

Anonymous Ironsides November 08, 2016 10:38 AM  

I went and cast a vote for the Unstumpable One in my tiny, 98% white Wisconsin city. There were some old folk there, and one young guy in a bright red hoodie (possible Trump voter?), but probably about 15 people total. Not that I expected many more than that, I was there when the polls opened at 7 AM.

More interesting is that someone parked a pickup truck on one of the major streets with a huge sign in the bed saying "Honk for HILLARY!" A steady stream of traffic was going by it; nobody honked while I was within earshot. You couldn't miss the sign, either.

Of course, these are basically rural people. This city has less than 10K people, 3 gun stores, and 3 gun shows annually. (Naturally, showing that race will out, the place is bristling with weaponry and the most recent murder was in 1997.) So I doubt this is representative of the Cheeseheads collectively.

Blogger Derrick Bonsell November 08, 2016 10:43 AM  

New Hampshire was +2 Trump, but a UNH poll went +11 Hillary. A bit dishonest to use if you think the polls showing a Trump lead were accurate, but far more than enough to tilt the average to Clinton.

Blogger Johnny November 08, 2016 10:44 AM  

Where I live in Wisconsin nothing but Trump signs in the rural areas. More than usual but otherwise not different. Mostly a Republican area.

Blogger Nick S November 08, 2016 10:44 AM  

It doesn't look like the margins will be big enough to shock anyone into acknowledging a paradigm shift. Too bad. I was hoping for a blow out that would give the chattering class a tangible "WTF just happened. Time to recalibrate." moment.

Anonymous Rob November 08, 2016 10:44 AM  

@121

I live in Cecil County, MD and commute to west Baltimore. Lots of Trump from Cecil down through Harford, but barely any Clinton when going through the city. I've seen more Sanders bumper stickers than I have Clinton ones.

Blogger DemonicProfessorEl November 08, 2016 10:51 AM  

A though came to mind - if any of us live in "contested" districts or cities, we could observe and record any malfeasances occurring. Just watch out for bussing, repeating cars/passengers, voter intimidation.

Just an idea :)

Blogger updatesready November 08, 2016 10:53 AM  

Quick report from Delaware County Ohio (this is Kasich's old house district - he lives 10 miles from here).

Went mid-morning when it's usually somewhat slow. Today it was quite busy with the church's parking lot full - and had to wait for a parking space.

We have voter ID. They check both your photo ID and signature - both originals come up on the iPad they use to check you in. It's a bit hard to sign with the stupid thick stylus on the iPad they use. The (D) poll worker gave it a long look since my signature did kind of look like a bad forgery. I rarely sign my name I guess (who writes check any more?). But did vote without incident.

Blogger DemonicProfessorEl November 08, 2016 10:55 AM  

We should also keep in mind the raw numbers from the primaries - Trump usually beat Clinton. Those are raw, and there are shenanigans, but it could be a good bellwether.

While it's still prediction, pro-union blue collars who supported Bernie Sanders are more likely to tilt Trump, and those numbers compete with cuckservatives, at least in my home state of Michigan.

Until then - where I'm at, lots of Trumps signs, a few decent lines (I did mail-in absentee a while back, so no voting today).

Anonymous Sam the Man November 08, 2016 10:57 AM  

DH,

Thanks for responding, as I now know where you got your data from.

That said, it was not that you owed me anything, But the general policy of this board is when challenged you have to respond.

As for anecdotal posts on voting, the wife and I voted in north bucks county and she noted that none of the folks were taking the Democratic sample ballot, it was all republicans.

A fellow I work with, who polls out of Lansdale, central Montgomery county, said there was not even a Democratic sample ballot person at the polling location, only a republican person handing out the ballot. That has never occurred before, it would appear that in PA Philly outer suburbs that the republican ground game is better than the democratic one.

Blogger SemiSpook37 November 08, 2016 11:01 AM  

@145

Yeah, I've seen that too. I saw one D sticker and one Van Hollen sticker on my way up to Harford this morning on 95. Of course, the city has its own problems with its mayoral race, especially with Dixon barreling ahead with her write-in campaign.

Blogger Michael November 08, 2016 11:03 AM  

Thanks. Says your prayers for a good out come for us.

OpenID malcolmthecynic November 08, 2016 11:04 AM  

So Vox, if the Trumpslide does not occur, will you be donating the shirts to small African children?

Anonymous WS November 08, 2016 11:05 AM  

@139 It's a given in Philly. It's usually worse than what you hear.

@149 Of the collar counties, Bucks is Trump's best bet. He really needs to kill it in Montgomery and Delaware counties - both pretty tall orders, imo. Main line is stubbornly liberal.

Anonymous Sazerac November 08, 2016 11:05 AM  

Just saw some news of some women who decided to go topless in a polling place to protest Trump. Why do so many women on the left feel the need to get naked to make protests?

I couldn't help thinking of the aid workers who work in refugee camps in Europe who end up sleeping with the invaders.

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) November 08, 2016 11:05 AM  

We should also keep in mind the raw numbers from the primaries - Trump usually beat Clinton. Those are raw, and there are shenanigans, but it could be a good bellwether.

Trump had 14mm votes, Clinton had almost 17mm (16.9)

Blogger Chent November 08, 2016 11:07 AM  

@Sazenac

Attention whores.

Anonymous Undocumented Civilizationalist November 08, 2016 11:07 AM  

Richard Baris is a no-nonsense pollster. He lives in Florida and polls there. He is overly cautious about his predictions--when he makes them-- too. His final national poll only gave Trump a .6% lead.
But he did say this a bit ago:

"@Peoples_Pundit
Looking at returns from Pinellas, Hillsborough, Lee, Broward and Miami (totals). Could change, but looks like Clinton is in deep trouble."

Of course, Clinton does not need Florida. Trump has to have it.

Anonymous Sazerac November 08, 2016 11:07 AM  

@152 As I told a jerk sjw in expensive clothing who travelled the world, how about you make the first move and sell your house and donate it to small African children before asking others to give up their assets.

Anonymous Sam the Man November 08, 2016 11:07 AM  

Opps, forgot to say both counties mentioned in voting are next to Philadelphia county, Pennsylvania.

Some idea of final polling in PA:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMiteE9pZkcwQnZ3TVk/view

Trump 48.4 to 46.5 (favors Trump 1.9%)

Nate Silver has it

Hillary 48.9% to Trump 45.2% (favors Hillary 3.7%)

Blogger Rambam November 08, 2016 11:09 AM  

Well, today we find out if the prayers of the remnant were enough and we will be spared like Nineveh or the writing is on the wall: Mene, Mene, Tekel, and Parsin.

Blogger The Other Robot November 08, 2016 11:12 AM  

Re: The media is corrupt.

Ron Unz has produced an interesting series called American Pravda that has me now thinking that every word out of the MSM's mouth and every word they type is a lie, including a and the, not to mention is.

Anonymous physics geek November 08, 2016 11:18 AM  

I've had Trump at 260-266 EVs for months now. It's that last hurdle that I find challenging. VA is not going GOP this year. NH and PA are challenging for Trump, as is MI, NM. Don't forget Reid's GOTV machine in NV either, which would put a dent in Trump's chances.

As for CO, I saw numbers from the Denver Post yesterday which indicated Trump had a small lead in early voting and that he was leading in the likely voters for today. It's the first such poll I've seen, but if it's accurate, could provide Trump the margin he requires.

My prediction remains unchanged. I think that the Lizard Queen will win a narrow EC victory. If some early swing states go Democrat early, that margin could increase as midwest and western voters simply don't bother to show up because the race will have already been decided.

Things to look for:

1) If either FL or NC go blue, go to bed. The race will over at that point.
2) If FL, NC and OH go red, hold on. Things are about to get interesting.
3) If VA goes red, which I do not foresee, Trump winning by a large margin becomes a possibility
4) Assuming NC and FL go red, watch NH and PA. Either one of those flipping red would be a solid indicator of a Trump surge. If they remain blue, or if MN's 2nd CD goes blue, well, the inside straight Trump needs to draw becomes more difficult. Depending on MI, CO, or NM for a victory is likely end in disappointment.

Anyway, just my two cents. I've been analyzing the national and state data for months and this what I've come up with. I will say that this has been a difficult year to analyze and predict, so I could be completely wrong here.

Blogger Xmas November 08, 2016 11:19 AM  

Virginia's poll close at 7 PM. If that state is close it's going to be a long night for Hillary. If it tips Trump, it's a Trump rout and Clinton goes down in flames.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 08, 2016 11:19 AM  

A though came to mind - if any of us live in "contested" districts or cities, we could observe and record any malfeasances occurring. Just watch out for bussing, repeating cars/passengers, voter intimidation.

Trump has been asking for volunteers to do exit polling in critical areas for just that purpose. A couple judges in the tank for Hillary claimed it was intimidation and tried to stop it, but they were overturned by higher courts.

Regardless, there's no law that says anyone can't stand across the street from a polling place and observe or film the comings and goings, as far as I know.

Blogger John Wright November 08, 2016 11:24 AM  

@104
I am also in Fairfax County, and there was not a long line at my poling place. The staff said it had been busier that morning.

My eighteen year old son voted for the first time ever. So I am hoping my district wins for Trump by one vote, and that his is the one.

Anonymous Jack Amok November 08, 2016 11:27 AM  

The sun is shining today. For the funeral of our old society or for the first day of reclaiming it and making it great again, I don't know. But the sun is shining today.

Go MAGA

Blogger arsenic74.9 November 08, 2016 11:28 AM  

Just voted in my small town in NH. There were probably 60 people there at 11am. Did not see anybody holding signs for trump, lots of hiLIARy and hassan sign holders and one sad Johnson sign. Expect my town, and most of southern NH to go slightly to hiLIARy due to the amount of mass transplants

Blogger Tommy Hass November 08, 2016 11:29 AM  

"My eighteen year old son voted for the first time ever. So I am hoping my district wins for Trump by one vote, and that his is the one."

Parents are weird.

Blogger DemonicProfessorEl November 08, 2016 11:29 AM  

Cail Corishev wrote:Regardless, there's no law that says anyone can't stand across the street from a polling place and observe or film the comings and goings, as far as I know.

Exactly what I was thinking. Even the Supreme Court has ruled that citizens (US!) can film and photograph anywhere in public, including police officers. Of course Hillary, Evil's Hag, would say we don't have the privilege to question her divinity, but eff her.

Blogger Tommy Hass November 08, 2016 11:30 AM  

Btw, when did Virginia become this blue? Bush used to win that with ease.

OpenID b1bae96e-6447-11e3-b6bb-000f20980440 November 08, 2016 11:30 AM  

I live in Hillary Country. Well Romney/Kasich Country, but she is the closest we have to keeping the price of lawncare down.

I voted about 20-30 minutes later this year than I did in 2012. No line, there never is, but in 2012 I was #97, this time I was #223. That seems a bit odd to me. Not really sure what to make of that. I can't imagine an extra 100 people felt that compelled to vote against Trump in an uncompetitive democrat state, and we don't have anything particularly pressing in way of local stuff either.

I did hear an obvious Trump supporter come in behind me though. At least I assume he was because he asked to know if his wife and mother had voted and said he was just checking because they were dead and wanted to make sure they hadn't.

OpenID b1bae96e-6447-11e3-b6bb-000f20980440 November 08, 2016 11:33 AM  

@170 Since the K Street parasite class started settling into NoVA. The Hispanic builder/servant class followed suit.

Blogger Tommy Hass November 08, 2016 11:33 AM  

"I couldn't help thinking of the aid workers who work in refugee camps in Europe who end up sleeping with the invaders."

If they were actually invaders, their heads would be rotting on pikes. Tool.

Seriously, are you not capable of opposing a political event without engaging Alinskian rhetoric?

Anonymous physics geek November 08, 2016 11:34 AM  

Btw, when did Virginia become this blue? Bush used to win that with ease.

The explosive growth in federal teat-sucking employees the last 8-10 years has helped. Most of them now live in NOVA and their votes overwhelm the rest of the state.

Blogger DemonicProfessorEl November 08, 2016 11:35 AM  

@155

It was in reference to how many people were against the Evil Hag. The Gimme Brigades will vote Dem no matter what, but the conversion of blue collars to Trump is a consideration.

Also recall that a lot of early "didn't vote Trump" Republicans liked Cruz before he revealed his inner snake. A Cruz voter =/= a Hillary voter, much like a Sanders voter =/= a Hillary voter, which is the strategy the GOPe, MSM, and Dems did early on.

Anonymous Just another commenter November 08, 2016 11:35 AM  

I'm going with 325 EV for Trump before the fraud. About 285 after, enough for the win.

Blogger DemonicProfessorEl November 08, 2016 11:38 AM  

@ 173

The Left made disagreement a capital crime and act of warfare first. We merely recognize the Left is at war with us.

Blogger Tommy Hass November 08, 2016 11:42 AM  

@101

"Given what we know from the WikiLeaks, I'm predicting--if she slides by today--Hilldog will eventually push for a drop in the age of sexual consent. It's the only deviant sexual avenue left to pursue, besides beastility. That's last. Then God burns this rathole."

Europe already has lower age of consent and it's still here. America used to have it as low as 10/11 in the relatively recent past and God didn't do anything neither. Hell, back then people were 10 times as God-fearing as they are now.

Just saiyan.

Blogger Tommy Hass November 08, 2016 11:44 AM  

Btw there are a lot of thing that I consider counter-intuitive. Why Arizona is so reliably red even though it's between Commiefornia and Nuevo Mexico.

Blogger Emmett Fitz-Hume November 08, 2016 11:45 AM  

Tommy's back. Lovely.

Blogger Joel Godfrey November 08, 2016 11:47 AM  

Just got done voting in uber-liberal Minneapolis at about 10:30 AM, the place was practically dead. There were maybe 15-20 people voting and that was it, no line. Oh, and the guy that checked me in was a republican dude I recognize, so there is at least one non-democrat there. That is very good news people.

Blogger Whisker biscuit November 08, 2016 11:48 AM  

If the current state of Europe is what your brain considers unjudged, then I got two tickets to a Spirit Cooking Dinner for ya.

As far as the age of consent in the past, I do believe a retard of any such law given the unrestrained nature of a hyper-sexual, media driven decadent culture thwarts your line of thinking.

Unless your getting commands from a demon in a cave.

Blogger Balázs Varga November 08, 2016 11:51 AM  

Tommy Hass wrote:"I couldn't help thinking of the aid workers who work in refugee camps in Europe who end up sleeping with the invaders."

If they were actually invaders, their heads would be rotting on pikes. Tool.

Seriously, are you not capable of opposing a political event without engaging Alinskian rhetoric?


As if US/Eu would let us to that?

Blogger VFM #7634 November 08, 2016 11:52 AM  

Indications from Florida that Republicans crushing Election Day. Trumpslide cometh:

https://twitter.com/NicholasCain67/status/796027247077556224/photo/1

Blogger Emmett Fitz-Hume November 08, 2016 11:53 AM  

Just a report in: I live in an extremely liberal state (the People's Republic of New York) and am in fact, one it's Storm Troopers.

Went to the elementary school to vote at 10:00. I was the only voter under the age of 45 except one female voter (30ish?). There was a large turnout but, given my region, I'm guessing they're Hillary supporters.

One note of joy: The 30 ish female was melting down because she had not registered to vote correctly and wasn't being allowed to vote.

"But this was my chance to vote for the first woman President!"
Lots of tears. Probably taste pretty sweet.

Blogger VFM #7634 November 08, 2016 11:56 AM  

Btw there are a lot of thing that I consider counter-intuitive. Why Arizona is so reliably red even though it's between Commiefornia and Nuevo Mexico.

@179 Tommy Hass
Arizona has picked up a lot of right-wing whites driven out of Southern California, and unlike New Mexico, never had a major Hispanic presence.

The left-wingers in Northern California tend to move to Colorado, Oregon, and Washington, I guess because they're more snobbish about having nice scenery.

In general, right-wingers are less romantic and more practical about where to live, so Arizona and Texas got more of them.

Blogger Cataline Sergius November 08, 2016 11:58 AM  

I was at the Trump Rally in Grand Rapids Michigan last night. It was in a single word electric.

I took one look and knew they had over sold the event by a factor of about 100%. The Fire Marshall would close the doors before I got anywhere near them. On the other hand it was pleasant November night, the air was brisk without being biting. And the company was most enjoyable indeed.

This was a Monday night crowd. Yet still it was Boisterous, Bellicose with plenty of Bon-vivant (and I am sure other adjectives that start with "B") This was a Trump crowd. Proud, chest thumping and totally pumped Americans. I will be proud to go to the robot apocalypse with them any and all of them by my side. Songs were song. High fives exchanged. Backs were slapped. And pretty girls were all over the place posing for selfies with surprised middle aged men. I fell in with a group of college kids. The Blonde Girl was promising to flash Trump at the rally so I stuck around with them out of only the purest of academic interest. College kids are still college kids. Attempts at brainwashing them have not as yet over come the power of late-teen and early twenty hormonal surges.

Yes, there were the other kind of college student on hand. Something under a dozen of these dull, dim, dispirited (and other pejoratives beginning with D) protestors had shown up. Honestly these attention seeking muddy puddles of PC addle mindedness were kind of depressing. It really wasn't as much fun to hurl insults at them as I wanted it to be. Their reaction to being called shills for a corrupt drunken brain damaged criminal was mostly to shrug as if to say, "yeah, I know." There were three contingents seriously greasy left over hippies, who I thought at first were just homeless and then I realized were wearing the tweed jackets and corduroys of state college professors. Some bean pole skinny boys that were clearly afraid someone would hit them. And of course feminists. These included some proud lesbian types that tried chanting something but the Grand Rapids branch of the Friends of Milo quickly drowned them out. They were ultimately a sad and lifeless little pod of people, who had all the energy of a couple who has been married for twenty five years and feel that since it's their anniversary they should probably try to fuck...and then don't.


Here is the big thing. Michigan Republicans tend to be dejected during presidential elections. They know they are going to lose so they do. This year the battle cry is I don't give a fuck if I lose I am strapping on the bomb vest and charging the bunker.

Anonymous PaulG November 08, 2016 12:01 PM  

John Wright wrote:@104

I am also in Fairfax County, and there was not a long line at my poling place. The staff said it had been busier that morning.

My eighteen year old son voted for the first time ever. So I am hoping my district wins for Trump by one vote, and that his is the one.


I also live in Fairfax and voted around 11:00. I had an opportunity to speak with a poll worker who told me that turnout had been good, with about 50% of all registered voters in my district having already voted (either absentee or earlier this morning). So, I'm optimistic about Virginia as I think it comes down to the enthusiasm gap.

Anonymous Faceless November 08, 2016 12:03 PM  

Cataline Sergius wrote:
Here is the big thing. Michigan Republicans tend to be dejected during presidential elections. They know they are going to lose so they do. This year the battle cry is I don't give a fuck if I lose I am strapping on the bomb vest and charging the bunker.


We would very much like to see the crazy Dutch from the western half of the state show up and vote; this is good news because, whether it was Posthumus for governor or McCain, when I talked to people from the West side of the state, they were very low energy and just assumed things would work out, which meant they didn't vote, and we got Jenny Mole.

Blogger Emmett Fitz-Hume November 08, 2016 12:04 PM  

@187

"And pretty girls were all over the place posing for selfies with middle age men..."

That's awesome. It's either a natural thing just happening (great) or Trump's people using beer company marketing techniques (great, cause they work). Or both.

Blogger Bear Brubaker November 08, 2016 12:08 PM  

I voted in AZ. No line. I was the 132nd person to vote on my side of the street at 9 AM. The big concern I heard was everyone talking about passing Marijuana. All the old people were voting Yes on that one. With Obamacare costs being out of control, I'm sure a lot of them see it as a cheap method of pain control. Which is super important when you're an old guy like me.

Anonymous Mr. Rational November 08, 2016 12:08 PM  

Just got back from voting and errands.  I made sure to bring up the Podesta weirdness everywhere I went except at the polls themselves.  I hope the morning-shifters still have it in mind when they get off work.

The poll workers were talking about heavy turnout and it was only ten-something.  Still only the one Clinton sign along my route.  I think Hitlery is toast.

Blogger Cail Corishev November 08, 2016 12:10 PM  

Btw, when did Virginia become this blue? Bush used to win that with ease.

As a compassionate conservative, Bush made government bigger, and a lot of the growth was in VA.

Blogger OGRE November 08, 2016 12:16 PM  

so much money in this country gets funneled into DC, and a lot of it stays there. So you have this growing Politburo class that radiates out into NoVa and MD. And they need their slav--servants--to water their lawns and raise their kids. So you get a mix of overpaid govt employees and underpaid immigrants. And we know how they all vote.

Blogger R Beisert November 08, 2016 12:24 PM  

Lots of Colorado enthusiasm for Trump, general apathy among Hillary's tentative supporters.

Would not be at all surprised to see it go Trump.

Blogger seeingsights November 08, 2016 12:28 PM  

Somebody mentioned that Hillary got more primary votes than Trump. However, republican turnout in primaries was almost 20 percent higher than in 2012, while democrat turnout in primary was almost 20 percent lower than in 2008

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