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Sunday, April 23, 2017

First steps towards Frexit?

France goes to the polls for the first round of the Presidential vote. Results are expected around 2 PM Eastern.
PARIS (AP) -- Amid heightened security, French voters began casting ballots for their next president Sunday in a first-round poll that's being seen as a litmus test for the future of Europe and the spread of populism around the world.

More than 50,000 police and gendarmes were deployed to protect 66,000 polling stations for Sunday's election, which comes just three days after a deadly attack on Paris's famed Champs-Elysees Avenue in which a police officer and a gunman were slain. Another 7,000 soldiers are on patrol.

The presidential poll is the first ever to be held while France is under a state of emergency, put in place since the November 2015 attacks in Paris left 130 people dead.

Voters are choosing between 11 presidential candidates in the most unpredictable contest in generations. The current president, Socialist Francois Hollande, is not among them, having decided that his historic unpopularity would hurt his party's cause.

"We really need a change in this country, with all the difficulties we are facing and terrorism," Paris resident Alain Richaud said as he waited to cast his vote.

"There have been surprises (this year), there have always been scandals," said Le Touquet resident Pierre-Antoine Guilluy.

Opinion polls point to a tight race among the four leading contenders vying to advance to the May 7 presidential runoff, when the top two candidates will go head to head.

Polls suggest far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen and Emmanuel Macron, an independent centrist and former economy minister, were in the lead. But conservative Francois Fillon, a former prime minister embroiled in a scandal over alleged fake jobs given to his wife and children, appeared to be closing the gap, as was far-left candidate Jean-Luc Melenchon.
The best chance for Le Pen is if Melenchon finishes second behind her. The problem with the two-round runoff system is that it essentially gives the mainstream two chances to keep out the populist riff-raff. But if it's between the Front National and the far left, Le Pen should win relatively easily.

That doesn't mean Le Pen can't beat Macron or Fillon; Fillon was supposedly a sure thing only three months ago. But it would be more difficult and would probably require another incident of Muslim misbehavior or two to put her over the top.

UPDATE: It will be Macron vs Le Pen in the second round.

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105 Comments:

Blogger Als April 23, 2017 11:35 AM  

"But if it's between the Front National and the far left, Le Pen should win relatively easily."

Absolutely not.

Le Pen couldn't beat an islamist in a 1v1.

Blogger Cecil Henry April 23, 2017 11:38 AM  

Less than 1 gendarme per polling station?? Not exactly tight security to my mind.

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 23, 2017 11:39 AM  

If not this election, then the next one. Macon is a damaged man, if elected he will be even more hapless than Hollande. Fillon is the past, if elected he will be at best a caretaker.

If not this election then the next. Unless there is a man like DeGaulle watching from a shadow, who will end this corrupt Republique and start to deal with the bigger crisis.

Blogger Tom Kratman April 23, 2017 11:39 AM  

The wogs' sense of timing is impeccable, but their ability to carry out the programs designed to do themselves the most harm is often lacking.

Blogger Tom Kratman April 23, 2017 11:41 AM  

"Less than 1 gendarme per polling station?? Not exactly tight security to my mind."

A gendarme isn't exactly a cop; he's a halfway house between a cop and a light infantryman.

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 23, 2017 11:42 AM  

@2
There was once upon a time statistician who drowned in a river that had an average depth of one foot.

Anonymous Anonymous April 23, 2017 11:43 AM  

Le Pen is a Zionist as is the entire National Front.
"Marine Le Pen Exposed" on
YouTube.Com is an excellent 15 minute documentary.
-Andrew

Anonymous Looking Glass April 23, 2017 11:56 AM  

Well, Obama called Macron, so he's probably as good as toast.

Also, for as much flak as we, rightly, give the French, don't think their Police (especially Riot Police) are jokes. They're just hamstrung from actually dealing with the problems.

Anonymous Jeff April 23, 2017 12:08 PM  

Fake polls are likely even more prevalent in France than they are in America. Pretty sure Le Pen will take anyone in the second round. Her rallies rival Trump's in their high energy.

Vive Les Deplorables!

Anonymous TS April 23, 2017 12:14 PM  

"And would probably require another incident of Muslim misbehavior or two to put her over the top."

Wha? They haven't had enough murders er, um... vibrancy yet!?

Blogger Johnny April 23, 2017 12:14 PM  

Ideologies do not die owing to lack of logic. What kills them off is when they fail to function. That causes pain and rethinking, and that is what the French are going through with the current universal paternalism doctrine. Arab terrorism is killing it off one dead person at a time. If not this election then the next one.

Blogger David Power April 23, 2017 12:14 PM  

Happy George's Day

"On this one night in the whole year we are allowed to use a forgotten, almost a forbidden word.

We are allowed to mention the name of our own country, to speak of ourselves as “Englishmen,” and we may even raise the slogan “St. George for Merrie England.”

We must be careful, however. You see these microphones? They have been placed on our tables by the British Broadcasting Corporation.

Think of the risk these eminent men are running. We can almost see them in our mind’s eye, gathered together in that very expensive building, with the questionable statues* on its front. We can picture Sir John Reith, with the perspiration mantling on his lofty brow, with his hand on the control switch, wondering, as I utter every word, whether it will not be his duty to protect his innocent subscribers from some irreverent thing I might say about Mr. Gandhi, or about the Bolsheviks, or even about our peripatetic Prime Minister.

But let me reassure him. I have much more serious topics to discuss. I have to speak to you about St. George and the Dragon. I have been wondering what would happen if that legend were repeated under modern conditions.

St. George would arrive in Cappadocia, accompanied not by a horse, but by a secretariat. He would be armed not with a lance, but with several flexible formulas.

He would, of course, be welcomed by the local branch of the League of Nations Union. He would propose a conference with the dragon—a Round Table Conference, no doubt—that would be more convenient for the dragon’s tail. He would make a trade agreement with the dragon.

He would lend the dragon a lot of money for the Cappadocian taxpayers. The maiden’s release would be referred to Geneva, the dragon reserving all his rights mean-while. Finally St. George would be photographed with the dragon (inset—the maiden).


Here we provide for poverty and misfortune with more compassion, in spite of all our burdens, than any other country.

Here we can assert the rights of the citizen against the State, or criticize the government of the day, without failing in our duty to the Crown or in our loyalty to the King.

This ancient, mighty London in which we are gathered is still the financial center of the world. From the Admiralty building, half a mile away, orders can be sent to a Fleet which, though much smaller than it used to be, or than it ought to be, is still unsurpassed on the seas.

More than 80 percent of the British casualties of the Great War were English. More than 80 percent of the taxation is paid by the English taxpayers. We are entitled to mention these facts, and to draw authority and courage from them.

Historians have noticed, all down the centuries, one peculiarity of the English people which has cost them dear. We have always thrown away after a victory the greater part of the advantages we gained in the struggle.

The worst difficulties from which we suffer do not come from without. They come from within. They do not come from the cottages of the wage-earners.

They come from a peculiar type of brainy people always found in our country, who, if they add something to its culture, take much from its strength.

Our difficulties come from the mood of unwarrantable self-abasement into which we have been cast by a powerful section of our own intellectuals.

They come from the acceptance of defeatist doctrines by a large proportion of our politicians. But what have they to offer but a vague internationalism, a squalid materialism, and the promise of impossible Utopias?

Nothing can save England if she will not save herself."



WINSTON CHURCHILL speech to the Royal St. George Society 23/April/1933


OpenID crapulux April 23, 2017 12:38 PM  

Vox, don't underestimate the stupidity of the French... I was born there, I live there... I mean look at the number of bolshevik candidates and their scores!

Blogger Snidely Whiplash April 23, 2017 12:46 PM  

The problem, as I see it, with la Belle Republique is that people unrepentantly vote their own narrow interest. There is virtually no thought given by voters to the nation as a whole. And it's been that way since at least the end of WWI. That will change, as it must, eventually. Until it does, LePen is about the best that can be elected there, just as Trump is about the best that America can manage right now.

Anonymous BbigGayKoranBurner April 23, 2017 12:48 PM  

Hey Moslems I am burning a koran every day till the results come in on Frexit.

"Less than 1 gendarme per polling station?? Not exactly tight security to my mind."- They are only needed in DieVerse Cities.

Blogger Wolfman at Large April 23, 2017 12:52 PM  

Viva la France!
The world holds it's breath in suspense.
Will Reconquista 2.0 begun ahead of schedule?

Blogger Franz Lyonheart April 23, 2017 12:58 PM  

VFM # 401 (or something, forgot my exact number, what you gonna do send Melvyn? Lol) dutifully reports : my French wife (my French episodes' loot of beauty) voted my conscience, as any loyal wife should, in the London Consulate.

We've done our good deed for today.

Marine je t'aime.

Blogger Franz Lyonheart April 23, 2017 1:01 PM  

Allons enfants de la Patrie,

Le jour de gloire est arrive!

Contre nous de la tyrannie,

L'etendard sanglant est leve,

Entendez-vous dans les campagnes

Mugir ces feroces soldats?

Ils viennent jusque dans vos bras

Egorger vos fils, vos compagnes!

Aux armes, citoyens,

Formez vos bataillons,

Marchons, marchons!

Qu'un sang impur

Abreuve nos sillons!

Anonymous VFM #6306 April 23, 2017 1:04 PM  

That's democracy, Snidely:

Massed narrow interests = Good of the nation.

It one of the least reliable formulae we inherited from the Greeks.

Blogger ((( bob kek mando ))) - ( don't trifle with me, son. i'm a professional, certified 4th degree black belt in the ancient Hebrew martial art of Kibitz Maga ) April 23, 2017 1:22 PM  

18. VFM #6306 April 23, 2017 1:04 PM
It one of the least reliable formulae we inherited from the Greeks.



we inherited the Republic from the Greeks.

our current universal Democracy was bequeathed to us by way of Marxists.

Blogger seeingsights April 23, 2017 1:34 PM  

I think the political dynamics are different this time. Fillon said that if he doesn't get past the first round, his supporters will go to Le Pen.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash April 23, 2017 1:37 PM  

Before this foolish idea of "universal suffrage" became fashionable, voting was restricted to those who were far more likely to think of their nation and their posterity than "Jacques, he promise me 2 more Euros a month and cheaper wine! But Francois promise to make it more difficult to fire me. C'est difficile, tres difficile."

Blogger Robert What? April 23, 2017 1:43 PM  

I suspect the electronic voting machines were programmed for the desired result weeks ago.

Blogger Almodavar April 23, 2017 2:05 PM  

I see a Sixth Republic in the near future....

Anonymous Jack Amok April 23, 2017 2:10 PM  

I suspect the electronic voting machines were programmed for the desired result weeks ago.

Wasn't that the reason Trump was going lose to Clinton last November?

Blogger Volksgemeinschaft April 23, 2017 2:10 PM  

Having lived through a Civil War in Southern Africa I conclude that France is already in a Low Intensity Civil War due to the deployment of 50,000 Army/Police personnel.

Blogger Charles Martel April 23, 2017 2:13 PM  

re: "Happy St. George's Day" (David Power)

And then, 12 years and 10 months later, Sir Winston ordered the incineration of 25,000 citizens of Dresden, Germany--most of them innocent women and children. What a guy.

Anonymous Eduardo April 23, 2017 2:14 PM  

The Greek were very stingy with foreigners, you people would never have problem with incoming foreigners. The cucks could be ostracized, another greek invention, and finally only certain people, the Demos get to have a say about the future of the City, and they do so by direct democracy.

The greeks were geniuses when it came to ruling their lands, if they could stop killing each other; BUT NO, they couldn't so they went the way of the dodo just like the Sumerians for the same reason.

Blogger Cataline Sergius April 23, 2017 2:14 PM  

I see a Sixth Republic in the near future....

Quite possible. Past a certain point it's easier for the French to simply replace their entire government.

Blogger Cicatrizatic April 23, 2017 2:15 PM  

Looks like it is definitely Macron and Le Pen, the only question is who came in first.

Anonymous BBGKB April 23, 2017 2:20 PM  

OT: Different rules for different folks. Detriot lets niglets off with lots of crimes but "warming car while white" is far worse than walking while black.

http://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/macomb/2017/04/20/roseville-judge-uphold-man-ticket-car-running-driveway/100709904/

Anonymous Vermithrax Pejorative April 23, 2017 2:24 PM  

Macron and Le Pen. The Globalist and the Nationalist.

The same re-alignment we had in the United States.

And so it continues.

Anonymous RabidRatel April 23, 2017 2:29 PM  

BBGKB wrote:"warming car while white"

How do you live with a government so intrusive? This is worse than having a nagging mother-in-law looking over your shoulder the whole time. The state needs to bug out of personal life.

Blogger Cicatrizatic April 23, 2017 2:46 PM  

Most exit polls have Macron at 23-24% and Le Pen at 21%, but the French Interior Ministry has Le Pen at 25%, Macron at 21%.

Blogger Cicatrizatic April 23, 2017 2:50 PM  

Everything going as planned. The entire French world, from Hollande to Fillon, have endorsed Macron. It's the entire establishment v. the nationalist right.

Blogger Beefy Levinson April 23, 2017 2:56 PM  

Do you hear the people REEEEE
Singing the song of Nazi frogs
The music of a people who will not be cucks to wogs!
When removing of kebab echoes the beating of the drums
Globalist tears will freely fall when May 7 comes!

Anonymous Darth Dharmakīrti April 23, 2017 2:57 PM  

The greeks were geniuses when it came to ruling their lands, if they could stop killing each other; BUT NO, they couldn't so they went the way of the dodo just like the Sumerians for the same reason.

Except they were still the best-educated people in Rome, which gave them such outsize influence that they eventually came back with a vengeance as the Byzantine empire, further bequeathing us a proven-effective model of Christian monarchy in the process.

Blogger Jourdan April 23, 2017 2:59 PM  

@1 "Le Pen couldn't beat an islamist in a 1v1"

This is absolutely correct, and another illustration of why the ballot box won't save us.

We nationalists have an absolute moral right and duty to re-establish our nations, by force if necessary, without any need for a vote, a mandate or a poll.

DeGaulle did what was necessary to save France, and he took it upon himself to speak for her, and to use force, and, my God, when he made that decision it was him and 24 other men, who were completely reliant on a foreign power for protection and funds.

Democracy is important.

But it's not everything.

France will be saved when a LePen or a new DeGualle ACTS, with force.

Neither in the U.S. nor in France will we be victorious through a mere election.

Blogger szopen April 23, 2017 3:06 PM  

Macron vs Le Pen, according to polls, would be 60:40 at most. Not very encouraging, especially when looking at the data posted by A.Karlin: that even half of Fillon voters would vote for Macron.

Blogger Nate April 23, 2017 3:07 PM  

Related... World of Warships has just announced that French ships are now included in the game.

Its unknown if the French ships will auto surrender at the start of the battle or wait until they are actually fired upon.

Blogger Franz Lyonheart April 23, 2017 3:10 PM  

The entire French world, from Hollande to Fillon, have endorsed Macron. It's the entire establishment v. the nationalist right.

It's the entire establishment v. the people. FTFY.

Blogger Cicatrizatic April 23, 2017 3:19 PM  

In two weeks, the French people will elect as their President a globalist financier who has no children of his own and is married to a woman 24 years his senior.

Anonymous Emmanuel April 23, 2017 3:33 PM  

@ 40

It's Le Pen ists vs System and majority of the people.
I'm afraid commentator n°12 is true, and We french people are stupid.

Blogger Rough Carrigan April 23, 2017 3:34 PM  

France was not the big chance for the nationalists to throw off the shackles of the EU. That's Italy. Grillo and 5 Star don't have the negative labeling that Front National do. And they had that lovely preliminary vote showing that Renzi's proposed constitutional changes got stomped like a narc at a biker rally.

Blogger red clock April 23, 2017 3:44 PM  

5 Star Movement in Italy does not oppose mass immigration. They're not true nationalists. Italy will keep taking in African boat people and sending them to the rest of the Europe.

Anonymous Jeff April 23, 2017 3:50 PM  

Hey Nate, how about those Preds?

Blogger Lazarus April 23, 2017 3:55 PM  

crapulux wrote:Vox, don't underestimate the stupidity of the French... I was born there, I live there... I mean look at the number of bolshevik candidates and their scores!

Yah, look who is rioting. Not muslims, extreme leftists

Anonymous Emmanuel April 23, 2017 4:10 PM  

Let's not overestimate Le Pen. Her campaign was bad, just bad. No agressivity, no soul, no headlines, no rhetoric, just technical points, crazy promisses here and there, and fake smiles. Due to circumstances she schould be around 35 per cent... But instead, she did this poor result... People is to blame, for sure, but she is also responsible. Marion Maréchal is far better than her aunt. Where was she? Only she could collect votes from Fillon's supporters! It's still time to reorientate the message to the right people : we can't win on leftists, we must win the right wing electorate !

Blogger Fifty Seven April 23, 2017 4:14 PM  

@39 Nate

The French ships don't have to auto surrender. They have terrible citadel armor-- you wait 'til they turn broadside and smear them.

Yeah, I play WoWS. BBs FTW

Blogger Resident Moron™ April 23, 2017 4:23 PM  

Vive le France!
Vive le France!
Vive le France!

Anonymous Lawyer Guy April 23, 2017 4:32 PM  

Is there a 'for dummies' level site that explains Marine's path to victory or the other in the run off? Link?

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 23, 2017 4:47 PM  

@41
In two weeks, the French people will elect as their President a globalist financier who has no children of his own and is married to a woman 24 years his senior.

En passant. If not this election, then the next.

Anonymous BBGKB April 23, 2017 5:29 PM  

BBGKB wrote:"warming car while white"...How do you live with a government so intrusive?

That's from Detriot. I can warm up my car and even park it facing out of my driveway because I fled die verse city to a Whitopia. Firefighters and EMTs like to park facing street.

http://personalliberty.com/parking-your-car-by-backing-it-into-your-driveway-could-soon-be-illegal-in-jacksonville-florida/

Anonymous Mr. Rational April 23, 2017 5:36 PM  

BBGKB wrote:"warming car while white" is far worse than walking while black.

RabidRatel wrote:How do you live with a government so intrusive?
A government that tries to prevent dindus from easily scoring vehicles with which to commit much worse crimes?  At the expense of people too cheap to buy remote starters so there are no keys in the ignition?  Sounds like a good idea to me, like sundown towns and "No Diversity Allowed" malls.

Blogger Skyler the Weird April 23, 2017 5:37 PM  

Time for the Third Empire. Find us a Bonaparte. Vive l'Empereur!

Blogger ant becker April 23, 2017 5:43 PM  

How do you get the left to realize, what they are doing, is self defeating?

Anonymous a deplorable rubberducky April 23, 2017 5:44 PM  

BBGKB wrote:

That's from Detriot. I can warm up my car and even park it facing out of my driveway because I fled die verse city to a Whitopia. Firefighters and EMTs like to park facing street.


Army people, too. It's called "combat parking." I've been questioned for NOT doing it a few times when I got caught slacking off on it.

Anonymous a deplorable rubberducky April 23, 2017 5:48 PM  

Fifty Seven wrote:The French ships don't have to auto surrender. They have terrible citadel armor-- you wait 'til they turn broadside and smear them.

Yeah, I play WoWS. BBs FTW


Good to hear! I've been loving the new French ships on WoWS. Glad to see you're a BB player and not a CV player. Those people are evil. :)

Blogger VFM #7634 April 23, 2017 6:09 PM  

In two weeks, the French people will elect as their President a globalist financier who has no children of his own and is married to a woman 24 years his senior.

@41 Cicatrizatic
His wife is another case of a batshit insane teacher going after one of her students.

I suppose she's hot enough, for an older woman... but still, that would suggest that Macron is a Gamma at best. Possibly a higher-functioning Omega.

I really, really hope there are televised debates between the two in France. Le Pen should be able to clean his clock. And she won't even have the disadvantage that Trump had of being the man in a man-woman fight. Remember those re-enactments of Trump/Hillary with the sexes switched, and how everyone (including liberals) loathed the male Hillary? Yeah.

Blogger Jourdan April 23, 2017 6:14 PM  

@54 - The current Imperial pretender is a good man, a local city councilor just outside of Paris. France could do worse.

Anonymous Andrew Anglin April 23, 2017 6:22 PM  

Marine Le Pen is so thick with les Juifs that her own father has denounced her as a shabbatz goy. The only difference between Marine and Trumpenthal is that she'll lose in the 2nd Round. And that's just as well. Another chorus of "but..but...she/he promised!" would be just too wearisome. TINVOWOOT.

in related news, Rancid Preibus has announced that there will be no funding for Trumpenthal's fabled Wall in the new budget...but "planning will continue".

and this just in: VP Pence is returning from Kangarooland with 1,250 Syrian "refugees" so farking awful that even the Aussies wouldn't accept them.

Blogger SteelPalm April 23, 2017 6:34 PM  

Again, for those who haven't already, listen to Jared Taylor's podcast interview with a right-wing Frenchman over on AmRen.

This is in fact exactly what he predicted; Le Pen winning the first round with 20-25% of the vote (he even got the numbers exactly), with media darling Emmanuel "there is no French culture" Macron in close second around 20%.

(As it turns out, Macron might actually be slightly ahead of Le Pen with both around 23%)

However, the problems come in round 2, when the 55% of people who voted for candidates (mostly socialists and outright communists) OTHER than Le Pen and Macron must choose between one of the two.

Guess which one the French socialists/communists will go for?

That same right-wing Frenchman (who knows way more than I do about the subject) was predicting 30-35% for Le Pen in round 2.

As Vox says, another jihadi attack or two would help, but I'm not sure even that would be enough. This is not even remotely similar to the American election or Brexit. This isn't even as good as the odds that Geert Wilders faced.

Blogger Fifty Seven April 23, 2017 6:36 PM  

@57 Rubberducky

Well, I'm glad someone's enjoying them. I saw a lot of Emiles in mid tier games last week and most of them didn't seem to be doing too well. But that's probably learning curve, as well.

Blogger Megamerc April 23, 2017 6:41 PM  

Regarding the runoff vote for France's election between Le Pen and Macron, there were a lot of other candidates who got votes.

Which candidates' voters are most likely to switch to Le Pen or to Macron?

The turnout will most likely be bigger for the May contest, as it will make the election final. Will the extra turnout be in favor or against Le Pen?

Anonymous Jeff April 23, 2017 6:43 PM  

I just took a look at the French electoral. Macaroni's vote was concentrated on the west of France whereas Le Pen's vote was much more spread out across the country (and a landslide in the North).

Blogger VFM #7634 April 23, 2017 6:43 PM  

As Vox says, another jihadi attack or two would help, but I'm not sure even that would be enough.

@61 SteelPalm
A few televised debates might help Le Pen, a lot. (See my last post as to why.)

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 23, 2017 6:53 PM  

@61 SteelPalm
This is not even remotely similar to the American election or Brexit. This isn't even as good as the odds that Geert Wilders faced.

It ought not be a surprise. There is much ruin in a nation. Remember, only a few years ago LePen and Front Nationale was radioactive, hopeless. This year it is the contender against the established parties.

If not now, then the next election. Or there is a DeGaulle out there waiting for the right time to end the current Republique. Despair is a sin.

Blogger VD April 23, 2017 7:08 PM  

Guess which one the French socialists/communists will go for?

The X factor is the Melenchon voters. They are anti-EU. And remember, Front National is not actually right-wing. There is plenty in their program that the Left can support.

Anonymous A Most Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 23, 2017 7:37 PM  

@67 VD
Front National is not actually right-wing

Indeed. If there are any actual right wing parties in France they must be very small.

The question is of nationalism. Nationalists should vote for Le Pen. Again, if not this election, then the next. Because the Jihad won't stop until they are stopped.

Blogger Abyssus Invocat April 23, 2017 7:58 PM  

How is it you haven't been spammed, troll? Go to Twitter and try your luck there. They have affirmative action for low IQ trolls.

Blogger dfordoom April 23, 2017 9:33 PM  

@ ant becker

How do you get the left to realize, what they are doing, is self defeating?

It isn't the Left. It's globalists vs nationalists. If you want to view things from a left/right perspective Le Pen is the left. Macron represents the globalist right.

And it's not self-defeating from the point of view of the globalist right. It's evil but that doesn't bother them. They get to consolidate their power. They get to smash the working class. They get prosperity. It's not prosperity for everyone. Most people get shafted but that doesn't bother them either. As long as wealthy middle-class people and elites keep getting richer who cares about anyone else?

Over the past half century we've seen a quiet revolution. The rich have risen up against the poor. They've gotten away with it because they've created a Fake Left to provide them with a smokescreen.

Blogger Mandos April 23, 2017 9:44 PM  

The Mélenchon voters are trained to counter-signal on racism and nationalism before any other consideration. Most of them will flock to Macron, before hitting the streets against him in September when he starts talking of reforms.

Macron was successful in his takeover bid of the cuckservative right. The traditional right is now in shambles. Most Macron voters have the feeling they managed to get rid of the French gridlock by voting for him and eliminating the two mainstream parties. Instead what they just did is consolidate the globalist centre into a single political force, surrounded with two irreconcilable opposition factions who can be described as the nationalists on one side and the hardline cultural marxists on the other.

To be honest I believe Macron will come out of this with a huge political capital as not a lot of players will be in a position to be demanding, lest maybe Mélenchon. France voted for globalism and will get it good and hard.

Anonymous SciVo de Plorable April 23, 2017 9:57 PM  

Tom Kratman wrote:"Less than 1 gendarme per polling station?? Not exactly tight security to my mind."

A gendarme isn't exactly a cop; he's a halfway house between a cop and a light infantryman.


So there I was in Paris. It was December and after the fact, I believe that I had walking pneumonia. I'd been throwing out stuff from my suitcase in the snow all the way from Rome, trying to lighten the load, and failed.

So there I was on the train platform and I couldn't see a cart. But I saw a bike rack! So I locked my big suitcase to and went around the corner to get a cart.

When I came back, there were short, slender men in camo with intimidating submachine guns, surrounding my suitcase and their leader was talking on a radio. So of course, I did the only thing I could do and played dumb.

I rolled up and calmly unlocked the suitcase and put in on my cart, while they said "Barbarbarbarbarbar!". (This was when the lockers were closed due to North-African bomb terrorism.)

So I narrated my actions, "I'm just going to show you all of the things in my suitcase, here's my clothes, oh and a souvenir from Delphi." And etc. And the leader aggressively said, "Barbarbarbarbar!" And I said, "I'm sorry, I don't understand French."

So he threw up his hand and said, "BARBARBAR!!" and they all left. And that's the story of the time that I was too tired to be as scared as I should've been.

Anonymous Crew April 23, 2017 10:05 PM  

Over at The Conservative Tree House they are saying that Le Pen represents "nationalistic socialism" almost as if they haven't heard of the NSDAP and Literally Hitler.

Anonymous Jack Amok April 23, 2017 10:08 PM  

Glad to see you're a BB player and not a CV player. Those people are evil. :)

What about us Torpedo jockeys?

Blogger VFM #7634 April 23, 2017 10:34 PM  

The Mélenchon voters are trained to counter-signal on racism and nationalism before any other consideration. Most of them will flock to Macron, before hitting the streets against him in September when he starts talking of reforms.

@71 Mandos
Sounds to me as if the Mélenchon supporters are France's equivalent of Bernie Sanders supporters. I suspect a lot of them will stay home on election day rather than vote for Macron... who, unlike Hillary doesn't have the advantage of being female.

Macron was successful in his takeover bid of the cuckservative right.

It still seems to me that Macron is essentially like Hillary. After all, Hillary would be considered center-right in Europe, not center-left, and Macron was a former Socialist. Plus, like Hillary, he has the backing of all the usual bad globalist actors.

I suppose it's arguable Macron is like a better-looking Jeb, though. Both share uncool choices of wives.

Blogger dfordoom April 23, 2017 10:53 PM  

@ VFM #7634

Sounds to me as if the Mélenchon supporters are France's equivalent of Bernie Sanders supporters. I suspect a lot of them will stay home on election day rather than vote for Macron...

They'll all go to the polls and they'll all vote for Macron because it's the only way to save France from fascism. Because fascism is bad.

Anyone who thinks democracy is going to save Europe (or the US) is living in a fairy tale fantasy land. Democracy is unworkable. Always has been, always will be. In a democracy the scum always rises to the top.

2017 is going to be a critical year. It's the year in which the alt-right is going to confront the reality that it is absolutely impossible to achieve change through the ballot box. This will be a very painful revelation but in the long term it's probably a good thing.

The only way to achieve change is to subvert a part of the elite. If the elite is united no change is possible. If part of the elite ceases to believe in its own program then there's a chance.

Blogger The Other Robot April 23, 2017 10:57 PM  

Isn't there this thing called Twitter where we can inform the French voters that Macron is a fudge packer?

Blogger The Other Robot April 23, 2017 10:59 PM  

2017 is going to be a critical year. It's the year in which the alt-right is going to confront the reality that it is absolutely impossible to achieve change through the ballot box.

Huh? Even literally Hitler achieved change though the ballot box, didn't he?

Anonymous SciVo de Plorable April 23, 2017 11:20 PM  

dfordoom wrote:2017 is going to be a critical year. It's the year in which the alt-right is going to confront the reality that it is absolutely impossible to achieve change through the ballot box. This will be a very painful revelation but in the long term it's probably a good thing.

The only way to achieve change is to subvert a part of the elite. If the elite is united no change is possible. If part of the elite ceases to believe in its own program then there's a chance.


I have said before that as a result of my mental models, I predict exclusive private clubs getting shot up because people actually know that jihadist terrorism is the fault of our anti-Christian elite, not Muslims.

I mean, jihadism is the fault of Muslims. But it being in America is the fault of our anti-Christian elite.

Blogger dfordoom April 23, 2017 11:22 PM  

@The Other Robot

Huh? Even literally Hitler achieved change though the ballot box, didn't he?

Yep. Which is why modern nationalist parties can't win that way. The Literally Hitler card will always be played against them.

Look at the situation in Europe. Logically nationalist parties should be doing fantastically well in elections. You'd expect them to be winning landslide election victories. In fact they're suffering humiliating defeats. And that's because as long as you try to win through the ballot box the Literally Hitler card will be played and your electoral support will max out around 25 percent. With every other party united against you that spells perpetual defeat. The Literally Hitler card will always scare off enough people to destroy the chances of nationalist parties.

And there's absolutely no way you can stop that card from being played against you. Democracy is a game that nationalists can't win in western Europe.

Le Pen has tried desperately to be the nice moderate face of nationalism. She's about as moderate as you could get. She's left-wing and she's a liberal. But come election day she's still Literally Hitler.

Blogger Mandos April 23, 2017 11:23 PM  

I believe most of the Mélenchon voters will still go out and vote Macron. Unlike the US France has a history of rallying against the "far-right" in recent years, the latest example being the FN itself during the regional elections in 2015 where they achieved 27% (and not 21) in the first round before failing to secure a single region due to the counter-signal effect.

Macron is like Hillary on a lot of aspects indeed. But, unlike her, he managed to run outside the two-party apparatus, thus capturing some of the "anti-system lite" voters. It proved pivotal here, that and the methodical destruction of centre-right candidate Fillon - who should have won this handily.

Blogger Basil Makedon April 23, 2017 11:39 PM  

Macron led LePen by 900k votes (8.5M to 7.6M)

LePen, however, was only 500k votes above finishing in 4th place (7.6M to 7.0M).

The 5th (2.3M) and 6th (1.7M) place candidates combined had 4M votes.

In fact, given the scale of the vote in France, even the 7th (433k) and 8th (400k) place candidates had potentially outcome changing number of votes had they been distributed differently.

Worse, it would appear that more people didn't vote for either Macron or LePen than voted for Macron and LePen (19.5M v. 16.1M). In other words, the majority of the French preferred someone other than Macron or LePen.

This is no way to run a country.

Blogger dfordoom April 23, 2017 11:48 PM  

@ Basil Makedon

This is no way to run a country.

Unfortunately it's been all downhill since 1789. Seriously. More than two centuries of relentless secularist anti-Catholic propaganda has produced a society that richly deserves someone like Macron.

Blogger VFM #7634 April 23, 2017 11:55 PM  

Macron is like Hillary on a lot of aspects indeed. But, unlike her, he managed to run outside the two-party apparatus, thus capturing some of the "anti-system lite" voters. It proved pivotal here, that and the methodical destruction of centre-right candidate Fillon - who should have won this handily.

@81 Mandos
I liken that to sort of how Sen. Lisa Murkowski was re-elected via write-in due to Alaska's Democrat candidate completely collapsing.

Like I said, what we need is some Le Pen/Macron televised debates.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P-k4HH8esNk

I really hope Macron is like that... and given his choice of wife, there's a pretty decent chance of that.

Anonymous SciVo de Plorable April 24, 2017 12:40 AM  

dfordoom wrote:Look at the situation in Europe. Logically nationalist parties should be doing fantastically well in elections. You'd expect them to be winning landslide election victories. In fact they're suffering humiliating defeats. And that's because as long as you try to win through the ballot box the Literally Hitler card will be played and your electoral support will max out around 25 percent. With every other party united against you that spells perpetual defeat. The Literally Hitler card will always scare off enough people to destroy the chances of nationalist parties.

And there's absolutely no way you can stop that card from being played against you. Democracy is a game that nationalists can't win in western Europe.


Meh. How hard would it be to pain Macron as Literally Stalin, or even Literally Putin? It's the Current Year! How dare you even think of voting for him, when the arc of history bends to national justice?!

Anonymous A Most Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Deplorable Cents April 24, 2017 1:02 AM  

Macron seems like a name out of some 80's superhero comic. Some variation might work for a more modern comic.

Colonel Makron. Ms. Makrone. The secret EU spy MaCron.
This guys name is right out of a movie.

"DareDevil, what are we going to do? The MaKron is on the loose again! He can alter time and stop any compiler!"

Blogger dfordoom April 24, 2017 1:59 AM  

@ SciVo de Plorable

Meh. How hard would it be to paint Macron as Literally Stalin,

If you had control of the media it would be easy. But the globalists have control of the media. And they are backing Macron so Macron is a great guy while Le Pen is Literally Hitler.

To get control of the media you first need to get control of the state. To get control of the state you first need to get control of the media.

As I said in an earlier comment the only way to achieve regime change is to persuade part of the elite that regime change is necessary. At the moment the elite is absolutely united. That could change. It's not likely but it is possible.

Blogger Dirk Manly April 24, 2017 2:06 AM  

@30

re: man convicted of warming up his car in his driveway while white.

Idiot should have demanded a jury trial. NO jury in Macomb County would have convicted a car owner of such a thing done in the middle of January... because everyone on the Jury would have to admit to themselves that if this nonsense isn't stop, they'll wind up the defendandant's dock themselves, as they did the exact same thing themselves that cold morning. Winter in Detroit is no joke.

Blogger Dirk Manly April 24, 2017 2:47 AM  

@79

"I have said before that as a result of my mental models, I predict exclusive private clubs getting shot up because people actually know that jihadist terrorism is the fault of our anti-Christian elite, not Muslims."

Don't you mean (((exclusive private clubs))) ?

Blogger Dirk Manly April 24, 2017 2:55 AM  

"As I said in an earlier comment the only way to achieve regime change is to persuade part of the elite that regime change is necessary. At the moment the elite is absolutely united."

This is where assassination comes in. Not of political figures, but of their biggest unelected backers.

Blogger David Power April 24, 2017 4:23 AM  

"And then, 12 years and 10 months later, Sir Winston ordered the incineration of 25,000 citizens of Dresden, Germany--most of them innocent women and children. What a guy.

Yes, and it was completely unprovoked. What a monster.

Blogger Jonathan Wales April 24, 2017 5:09 AM  

France now in effect has an EU referendum. A straight shootout, yes or no. It will be interesting. Brexit was never supposed to happen if you believed the media. Even the 'mighty' Obama weighed in on it, having the reverse effect to what he expected. Many establishment are now similarly gushing with praise for Macron e.g. Juncker, Merkel. What effect will it have? Who knows, or can understand the French? But there is still a chance.

Blogger szopen April 24, 2017 7:01 AM  

David Power wrote:"And then, 12 years and 10 months later, Sir Winston ordered the incineration of 25,000 citizens of Dresden, Germany--most of them innocent women and children. What a guy.

Yes, and it was completely unprovoked. What a monster.



COme on, everyone knows that only Polish, Serbian or Russian children may be freely incinerated.

Blogger seeingsights April 24, 2017 8:24 AM  

Nationalists should be optimistic. A nationalist is head of state in Poland and Hungary. The nationalist party came in second in the Netherlands. The Alternative for Germany, which is only a few years old, is the third largest party in that country. Le Pen made it to the second round in France. The major party in the UK is behind Brexit, and they called a snap election which, polls say, will increase their lead. The Five Star Movement in Italy, according to some polls, is the most popular in Italy. Trump is in the White House.

Blogger szopen April 24, 2017 8:34 AM  

seeingsights wrote:Nationalists should be optimistic. A nationalist is head of state in Poland ...
A "Law and Justice" are not that nationalist and, moreover, recently they did a lot of stupid things; they acquired sole majority in parliament by lucky coincidence: Left have divided into far-left Razem and "Alliance of Democratic Left". The fractions within "Alliance" wer enot trusting each other. They could go to elections as a party (and they would have to pass 5% to get into parliament) or as a coalition (and they would have to pass 8%). Because the fractions were not trusting each other and were worried about division of subsidies if they would be "single party", they went as a coalition... and got something like 7% of votes, while far-left got 4%.

And now in polls seems Law and Justice have something like top 38% of voters (max), nationalists and libertarians in total some 10%-15%, and the rest is divided between different nominally right-wing parties (in reality, socially-liberal globalists).

Blogger VFM #7634 April 24, 2017 9:48 AM  

Macron seems like a name out of some 80's superhero comic. Some variation might work for a more modern comic.

Colonel Makron. Ms. Makrone. The secret EU spy MaCron.
This guys name is right out of a movie.


@86 Paradigm
The boss in Quake II.

Anonymous Mr. Rational April 24, 2017 10:03 AM  

@88   I have lived at the same latitude or north of Detroit for most of my life.  I have NEVER found it necessary to leave my car running unattended, and you can easily buy mods to do that without having to leave your keys in it.

Today I live well north of Detroit.  On many winter trips I don't even bother to start my engine to get heat (plug-in hybrid).  Call me a hard-ass if you like, but given how long it takes the engine to warm up vs. the electric seats it's just not worth the time.

Also, you can't get a jury trial for administrative fines, only crimes that carry jail time.

Blogger Robert Divinity April 24, 2017 10:53 AM  

Headline from today's National Review Online:

"French Election: American Conservatives Should Support Macron"

NR officially is beyond parody. The article was penned by Brit Tom Rogan. Any American who has suffered the promotion of Brits to top management of United States business concerns could tell you even if NR wasn't previously slated for extinction it soon would be.

The elevation of Brits at NR makes tremendous sense. The UK Conservative Party essentially is the cucked American Republican Party, so there is a natural affinity.

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents April 24, 2017 11:18 AM  

@86 Paradigm
The boss in Quake II.


Strogg leader. D'oh! That's why it was familar.

Blogger Off The Wall April 24, 2017 1:31 PM  

Don't be a cuck.

Mr. Rational wrote:@88   I have lived at the same latitude or north of Detroit for most of my life.  I have NEVER found it necessary to leave my car running unattended, and you can easily buy mods to do that without having to leave your keys in it.

Today I live well north of Detroit.  On many winter trips I don't even bother to start my engine to get heat (plug-in hybrid).  Call me a hard-ass if you like, but given how long it takes the engine to warm up vs. the electric seats it's just not worth the time.

Also, you can't get a jury trial for administrative fines, only crimes that carry jail time.

Blogger Basil Makedon April 24, 2017 2:43 PM  

@98 Indeed.

Americans should support no one in the French election, it's not our country and not our business.

Anonymous Mr. Rational April 24, 2017 6:41 PM  

@100   Don't be crook-coddler, directly or indirectly.

Blogger D. Bay April 24, 2017 6:47 PM  

Can't say this comes as a surprise given the election outcome in France:

Grand Mosque Of Paris Urges French Muslims To Vote Against Far-Right Le Pen

Blogger Tom Kratman April 25, 2017 10:45 AM  

"How do you live with a government so intrusive? This is worse than having a nagging mother-in-law looking over your shoulder the whole time. The state needs to bug out of personal life."

It's by no means uncommon for the law to make no sense, but there probably is a decent reason behind this, given that, after all, it is Detroit. Reason: Prevention of Auto Theft, maybe. Why should the government care? They get called and have to spend time and money on auto thefts.

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