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Thursday, June 08, 2017

UK election: final polls

We'll see if they do any better than they did on Brexit.

Con: 43.7% (+5.9)
Lab: 36.1% (+4.9)
LDem: 8.1% (-)
UKIP: 4.4% (-8.5)
Grn: 2.2% (-1.6)

Labour, the LibDems, and UKIP all look too high to me.

Labels: ,

73 Comments:

Blogger SteelPalm June 08, 2017 3:55 PM  

Wow, that's dreadful. Establishment Tories AND Labor both doing this well? UKIP suffering a drop, with only half of a 3rd place socialist party?

I expect this from France, but as an Anglophile, this one is surprising. Doubly so because of the recent terror attacks.

Anonymous Patron June 08, 2017 3:58 PM  

The Torygraph was reckoning on a ~50 seat majority for Theresa May, which I'd be happy with. A three-figure one would likely mean they'd get cocky and overconfident, and I don't want the Ken Clarke wing of the party keeping borders open or something equally stupid. Having around 50 means a solid majority, but not enough to go to anyone's head. I think.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/06/08/general-election-2017-exit-polls-results-live
https://order-order.com/2017/06/08/guy-newsroom-election-night-sweepstake

Also, don't forget the inestimable Guido Fawkes for lots of British politics in general (https://order-order.com). He's covered Corbyn's last-minute dog-whistling to Mohammedans, for example.

Blogger Cataline Sergius June 08, 2017 3:59 PM  

I think it had something to do with how May responded to the the attacks.

Let's face it nobody is calling her Iron Terry.

Blogger Cail Corishev June 08, 2017 4:01 PM  

In related news, it seems Queen Elizabeth has personally invited President Trump to visit the UK. Perhaps by the time he gets there, she can have a mayoral head to present him with as a gift.

Blogger James Jones June 08, 2017 4:11 PM  

It bothers me that a third of my retarded countrymen would vote for a far left party of cultural Marxists, who simply want to destroy this country.

Anonymous Proud Prairie Boy June 08, 2017 4:15 PM  

I'm interested in what is happening in Scotland and seeing how many SNP seats are lost to the Conservatives in this election. I have a Canadian cousin who has lived and worked in Glasgow for about 10 years now. He was inclined to the SNP but now has doubts due to the whole "Named Persons" debacle and Sturgeon's push for another vote on independence. I believe his Scottish colleagues are also getting soft on the SNP.London and large parts of Wales will go Labour but other areas of the UK are interesting to watch.

Anonymous Tony Dent June 08, 2017 4:16 PM  

Labour is going to surpise everyone and pull out a big win.

They are the party of the future (the UKs future is People of Color)

Almost all Muslims Blacks and People of Color support Labour. That tells you something right there


Also-Trump got owned during the Comey hearings. He will be impeached within a month

Read Julia Ioffe and Leonard Pitts on twitter

Blogger Whisker biscuit June 08, 2017 4:21 PM  

If ppl of color are England's future, then you don't have one. Whites build and invent, browns and blacks invade and ruin. #girlieman

Anonymous basementhomebrewer June 08, 2017 4:22 PM  

The trolling around here is going from annoying to just plain clownish.

Blogger BassmanCO June 08, 2017 4:25 PM  

@7 Tony Dent, I can't tell if you believe your trolling or just know what to say to trigger people here. Regardless, I am certain you can do better.

Blogger ((( bob kek mando ))) - ( Give us this day our daily bait, that we may crush our enemies, see their weaksauce driven before us and hear the lamentations of their women, thank you Baby Jesus, Amen ) June 08, 2017 4:26 PM  

you don't say?

http://www.museumoffamilyhistory.com/ajolson-blackface-1914-a.jpg

Blogger Josh (the gayest thing here) June 08, 2017 4:27 PM  

Why doesn't that poll include SNP?

Anonymous Steve June 08, 2017 4:27 PM  

Steelpalm - UKIP were a single issue party, and that single issue is more or less settled.

They also lack a recognisable figure other than Nigel Farage, who has retired from politics.

And lastly, the electoral system makes it virtually impossible for them to win seats at Westminster.

I expect the Tories to win, and to be dragged rightward by events and the souring mood of the country.

Anonymous Steve June 08, 2017 4:31 PM  

Josh - including the SNP in a UK poll wouldn't tell you anything, since they only contest seats in Scotland. Similarly, the Ulster parties and PC.

Anonymous Jeff June 08, 2017 4:32 PM  

It's a good thing that UKIP has dropped now so as not to split the right wing vote (not that the Tories are very right wing but you get the picture).

First things first. UKIP next time.

Blogger ((( bob kek mando ))) - ( Give us this day our daily bait, that we may crush our enemies, see their weaksauce driven before us and hear the lamentations of their women, thank you Baby Jesus, Amen ) June 08, 2017 4:33 PM  

yep, we'll be having God Emperor kabobs any day now.

https://heartiste.wordpress.com/2017/06/08/phoney-comey-update/

have you heard? Trump is almost ready to fire Steve Bannon!

there's only 53,987 people ahead of Steve in the firing list.

Anonymous Merry Englander June 08, 2017 4:35 PM  

@1 UKIP are suffering a drop because the Tories, for now, are actually going forward with brexit. UKIP were never a seat winner, they mainly acted to pressure the Tories by splitting their vote. This forced the referendum concession from Cameron, which achieved their aim.

Now, with far-leftist Corbyn - supporter of mass immigration - uniting the left their voters are tactically going Tory.

It's not that the Tories are loved. More that Labour are unusually feared.

We'll see how it works out.


Blogger Mr Darcy June 08, 2017 4:42 PM  

@ 7:

You wrote:

"Also-Trump got owned during the Comey hearings. He will be impeached within a month ... ."

First, he did not get pwned.
Second, even if impeached, he will not be convicted or removed from office.

Get a clue.

Blogger SteelPalm June 08, 2017 4:43 PM  

@13 Steve

Your analysis of UKIP is valid, but they're also the ONLY party talking about restricting immigration to any extent. That would seem a lot more attractive in light of current events than just 4.4% of the vote, no?

As for the Tories being "dragged rightward", that's wishful thinking. As I have written here elsewhere, Theresa May is a hardcore globalist and defender of jihadis to her very core. She will always, gladly stand with someone like Saddiq Khan and other invaders over the (genuine) British people.

As long as she is head of the party, which looks like it will now last some time, the Tories will only become increasingly Marxist/globalist.

Of course, it's not all doom-and-gloom, and I expect some patriotic Brits to rise up and take back their nation. But it won't happen for a while on a national election level.

Blogger Lovekraft June 08, 2017 4:43 PM  

You guys should see this video of a Corbyn rally on youtube where I got in early on the comments, asking for specific examples of Corbyn achievements. And, failing that, whether the poster can indicate how Corby is a sharp mind and of solid character. I also noted how, living in Ontario, I am fully aware of the record of our socialist/leftist politicians ($100+ billion in debt).

First one threw out rhetoric, saying he's a good person, second ended up telling me of his 150 IQ.

My final comment will be how the ship is taking on water and they're pushing me aside to help the third world aboard.

Blogger Mr Darcy June 08, 2017 4:48 PM  

OT, but ...

I am across the street from the Fed Court Bldg in Augusta, GA, and there are press trucks and camera crews, and cars from all over the country, and, gee! I wonder what gives! Knowing how FedGov operates--take Comey's insinuations and half-truths for example--I doubet that it has anything to do with reality.

Anonymous BBGKB June 08, 2017 5:02 PM  

BREXIT would have failed if not for the Bring A Pen campaign to prevent voter fraud.

Anonymous Steve June 08, 2017 5:05 PM  

SteelPalm - UKIP aren't even standing in half of the country, they've been a shambles since Farage left (punch ups and other buffoonery included), their message isn't clear and voters know they don't have a chance.

To poll at over 4% is pretty good in the circumstances. Maybe they'll get their act together and come back strong at the next GE, maybe not.

May isn't a globalist ideologue or secret Bilderberg reptile woman, she's a bog standard authoritarian Tory centrist and none too bright. She'll do what she has to in order to cling on to office.

The Mozquito Question isn't going away soon, but Theresa May will if she lets Moslem atrocities continue unpunished.

This isn't France, or - thank God - Germany. We're leaving the EU for good reasons.

Blogger Lazarus June 08, 2017 5:11 PM  

The Exit Polls

UK exit poll projects COnservatives are the largest party but fall short of majority - leaving a hung parliament.

Conservative 314 - 12 seats short of majority
Labour 266
SNP 34
Lib Dem 14
Plaid 3
Green 1
UKIP 0
Other 18

Blogger James Jones June 08, 2017 5:12 PM  

Yep. Just like Hillary was going to pull off a big win, you traitorous POS.

Anonymous Merry Englander June 08, 2017 5:14 PM  

Early exit poll: hung parliament.

Calling early election monumental cock-up for May if true.

Could we see Scotland giving us Corbyn? Will English be allowed to vote in their next indy ref?

Blogger James Jones June 08, 2017 5:15 PM  

If we have a soft Brexiy, UKIP will rise again.

Blogger James Jones June 08, 2017 5:16 PM  

Hung parliament. A nightmare as we go into Brexit.

Blogger Jon D. June 08, 2017 5:29 PM  

@28 what does that mean exactly?

Anonymous Patron June 08, 2017 5:32 PM  

Polls have historically under-reported Tory voters, for various reasons.

IG page on the 2015 election:

Tories: 316 exit poll, 330 actual

Brexit was also something of a surprise win, and it wouldn't surprise me if BBC/ITV/Sky/Ipsos Mori poll hasn't adapted to the new politics, and sampled the wrong people (etc). The final poll average was an 8pt lead, and the Tories have consistently polled well the entire election.

Sure, the pollsters might be wrong, but... meh. It's quite a sizeable gap, not like the much smaller Brexit vote gap.

Anonymous Proud Prairie Boy June 08, 2017 5:33 PM  

Also OT, but....

Today might mark the official Alt. Right rise in Canada.

Many Canadian Conservative supporters pissed off at the recent vote in Parliament. Conservative members of parliament side with Trudeau's Liberal government on the Paris Accord. Many Conservative supporters cancelling their memberships and calling their Con MoP to protest the vote and new leader Andrew Scheer.

Could be an interesting,very hot, Summer in "Da Great White North" !

Anonymous Merry Englander June 08, 2017 5:41 PM  

@29 Jon D.
A hung parliament means no single party has a majority of all the MPs. So, we would have a coalition or minority government.

So, depending on the exact MP numbers for each party, you could see a leftist alliance put Corbyn in as prime minister.

Conservatives will get the Ulster Protestant's backing them. Plus, Sinn Fein don't usually go to Westminster, which leaves a leftist coalition needing to reach a higher bar. But there have been hints that they would go to Westminster for Corbyn.

So, we could have Corbyn put into power by the SNP and Sinn Fein. Considering that the Tories are officially called the Conservative and Unionist party, this might make them reflect on the need to drop the Unionist position.

Anonymous Steve June 08, 2017 5:46 PM  

That exit poll looks like bollocks.

Tories to lose 17 seats and the SNP to lose 22? Can't see it.

Anonymous Merry Englander June 08, 2017 5:48 PM  

@33, I hope you are right Steve. Certainly not what I would have predicted.

Hopefully the shy Tory effect.

Anonymous Patron June 08, 2017 5:53 PM  

@33

SNP could lose a few to pro-Union / pro-Brexit Scots, or just those sick of SNP shenanigans. Can't see them losing 22, but God knows it'd be nice to see that happen. There are limits to my support for omni-nationalism :P .

Also heard that YouGov did the exit poll, and they're generally known for favouring the Left in these things.

Anonymous Nick Denton June 08, 2017 5:55 PM  

BWAHAHAHAHA

Bye bye Brexit!

Blogger James Jones June 08, 2017 6:00 PM  

A coalition with a party that is largely or fully anti-Brexit.

Anonymous Steve June 08, 2017 6:03 PM  

ME - Could be, but more likely they've just screwed up their methodology this time around.

It's not only wildly out of whack with every opinion poll, but also with what MP's are said to be privately forecasting.

Patron - I can see the SNP losing seats, but not over a third of their seats in one go.

Similarly, Corbyn could well do slightly better in the popular vote than Ed Milibot, but not that much better, on account of him looking like a Leninist garden gnome.

My wet finger in the air prediction: Tory majority of about 40 seats.

Blogger Sterling Pilgrim June 08, 2017 6:04 PM  

Trump getting his feet wet in the Amnesty pool? Or Maybe he wanted to shut Ivanka up?
http://dailycaller.com/2017/06/08/nearly-100000-dreamers-granted-amnesty-in-trumps-first-three-months/

Blogger James Jones June 08, 2017 6:05 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Anonymous RCFlyer June 08, 2017 6:06 PM  

The first real results are coming in... looks like the exit polls were fake again.

Blogger James Jones June 08, 2017 6:06 PM  

On the contrary, the Tories usually underperform in polls. A huge Tory majority would have been bad for Brexit due to more soft Brexit Tories getting seats. A smaller win will leave the hard Brexit backbenchers in a stronger position.

Anonymous patrick kelly June 08, 2017 6:09 PM  

"Also-Trump got owned during the Comey hearings. He will be impeached within a month"

HAHAHAH...They won't have the votes to give him a stern tongue lashing.

Anonymous Patron June 08, 2017 6:12 PM  

Via Gab:

https://gab.ai/Don/posts/8645754

Tories doubled their votes in a safe Labour seat. They still lost the seat, but hey, it's called *safe* for a reason. If this is the trend, I can't see how that exit poll is accurate.

Blogger Tatooine Sharpshooters' Club June 08, 2017 6:19 PM  

Nick Denton
Tony Dent
Tony Denton

The name list for your bot needs an upgrade, Wreck The Records.

Anonymous Wowbagger June 08, 2017 6:27 PM  

"Tony PHILIP Dent?

You're a jerk. Dent, a complete kneebiter."

Anonymous Looking Glass June 08, 2017 6:34 PM  

We'll see if it ends up a Hung Parliament, but it also wouldn't surprise me. For what little I've paid attention to the race, there's a distinct lack of gusto tapping into the Brexit victory. Especially now as it's a lot more popular than before it happened.

If I was an outside force that wanted to inflict the most pain possible in the transition, putting the country into internal turmoil would be my first move. Things that make you go "hmm..."

Anonymous Steve June 08, 2017 6:38 PM  

Re: Brexit.

No, Brexit's happening, even if we get a hung parliament (which we won't). Apart from a few nutty Remaniac holdouts who fantasise about being occupied by the Belgian Army, the country has long since moved on to debating the merits of a manly, "hard" Brexit, versus a "soft", flaccid, it's-cold-in-here-I-swear Brexit.

Worst case scenario is the government negotiates a crappy deal with the EU, but that can be reneged on by any of its successors.

Blogger SteelPalm June 08, 2017 6:39 PM  

@23 Steve

May isn't a globalist ideologue or secret Bilderberg reptile woman, she's a bog standard authoritarian Tory centrist and none too bright. She'll do what she has to in order to cling on to office.

This is very wishful thinking. (Apologies in advance to Vox for Breitbart links in light of recent events, but it's what I have immediately available in my bookmarks)

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/03/23/theresa-may-islamist-westminster-attack/

http://www.breitbart.com/london/2017/01/26/britains-theresa-may-in-u-s-uses-daesh-instead-of-islamic-state-proclaims-belief-in-liberty-despite-expanding-uk-surveillance-state/

I'm struggling to find any difference in either words or actions between May and Merkel/Trudeau/Macron/Lofven. I can't.

While she might be slightly less of an outright socialist and not refer to Hamas and Hezbollah as "dear friends" like Corbyn, she is still a hardcore globalist and dhimmi for Islam all the same.

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey June 08, 2017 6:42 PM  

UKIP is pretty weak on everything except Brexit.

http://www.timesofisrael.com/uk-rabbi-politician-burns-christian-bible-sparking-ire/

There's not really much difference between Labour and the Tories on immigration. Corbyn may be a commie, but he does show signs of standing up to the Zionists from time to time.

Anonymous Ben P June 08, 2017 6:42 PM  

Funny - I voted today in a contested seat. I didn't see anyone doing exit polls. A few research agencies doing entry polls asking for my poll card number. Mostly so they can spam you before the next election.

It'd be interesting to see which seats they do exit polls in. If they aren't bothering in contested seats how can they expect to predict anything.

Anonymous BBGKB June 08, 2017 6:44 PM  

Brexit was also something of a surprise win, and it wouldn't surprise me if BBC/ITV/Sky/Ipsos Mori poll hasn't adapted to the new politics

They were not prepared to pull off enough voter fraud. They thought they only needed voter fraud to make up 10% of the vote.

We'll see if it ends up a Hung Parliament

We can only wish, make sure to wear a Guy Fawkes mask and pay cash for the rope.

Anonymous Patron June 08, 2017 6:48 PM  

@50

I think I prefer Steve's analysis. Bog standard authoritarian centrist describes her pretty well. It's going to take time for the Tories to change, but given that we in the UK are usually a few years behind the USA, it won't surprise me if we see the Tories shift to being the "White Unionist" party, whilst Labour go the Democratic Party route and represent all the small minorities. Except the Jews, of course: Labour seem to have a real issue with them. I'm sure that's totally unrelated to all the pro-Labour Mohammedans out there though...

What else... I do think Mrs May to be too pragmatic to be a hardcore globalist. I think she'll make a fair job of Brexit, which you wouldn't expect from someone who dances to George Soros's tune. I don't really care *why* she's doing it, so long as she does it.

Blogger Tatooine Sharpshooters' Club June 08, 2017 6:53 PM  

Hung Parliament

Is that some sort of George Clinton slash fic?

Blogger Lazarus June 08, 2017 7:21 PM  

RCFlyer wrote:The first real results are coming in... looks like the exit polls were fake again.

Who polls the pollsters????

Anonymous glosoli June 08, 2017 7:38 PM  

@5,

'It bothers me that a third of my retarded countrymen would vote for a far left party of cultural Marxists, who simply want to destroy this country.'

Yeah, it amazes me the Tories get the votes too.

I spoiled my ballot paper with the words 'End white genocide and restore God's laws'.

I predict the Tories get back in with a similar majority, because they promised to shut down UK access to extremist sites (like this one). So, they'll win. It's been fun while it lasted, this period of a truthful sharing internet, let's hope it returns after the shit-storms that lie ahead have passed. I doubt I'll live to see it though.

God be with us all.

Blogger weka June 08, 2017 8:26 PM  

Looking at the live feeds it is too early to tell.

Blogger SRUN POR June 08, 2017 8:54 PM  

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Blogger Quicksilver75 June 08, 2017 9:01 PM  

Afraid Brexit isn't settled till a Hard Brexit is complete. The establishment is still scheming to subvert it or nullify it. UKIP must persist till UK is out of EU. They retreated too soon.

Blogger Lazarus June 08, 2017 10:02 PM  

That Terri May is one dumb barren bimbo. What a complete cock-up.

Anonymous DaveInjustice June 08, 2017 10:15 PM  

https://m.imgur.com/gallery/Fki6l

The results are in!

Anonymous Patron June 08, 2017 10:32 PM  

@61

I thought earlier she might get a sizeable enough majority to cling onto power, but at this rate the 1922 Committee will kick her out & install a new Tory PM in short order. Barring divine intervention, I don't see how this election can be perceived as anything but a disaster for Theresa May's leadership.

Blogger SirGroggy June 08, 2017 10:45 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger SirGroggy June 08, 2017 10:46 PM  

(UPDATED)
Teresa May should never have been made leader of the Tories.
I think she was a Remainer in fact.
It should have been Boris Johnson who was the leading Tory Brexiteer, and whom by the way is somebody who is popular with the general public.
I predict Boris Johnson will be the next leader after May.

Blogger Lazarus June 08, 2017 11:30 PM  

SirGroggy wrote:I predict Boris Johnson will be the next leader after May.

He needs to shave his head and stop looking like a simp.

Anonymous MendoScot June 09, 2017 12:17 AM  

So, a hung Parliament.

May gambled Brexit vs. her popularity and failed, she needs to resign.

Whoever takes over will be equally compromised, for not having stood.

This is what the Mandarins were predicting, that Brexit would never happen. We'll see.

The amusing part for this Scot Nationalist is the rout of the SNP, who would be King-makers. Instead they ceded large parts of the country to the Tories. Back to our roots.

The voting map follows the same pattern as the US. Urban centres Labour/LibDem, rural Tory. Rural areas that go left were fucked over by the economic contraction 50 years ago and haven't gotten over it. The Irish, well...fuck the Irish. Follow immigration (Scotland has effectively none) and you can see the exceptions.

This is going to make for an interesting 2 years.

Blogger weka June 09, 2017 1:02 AM  

Tories plus Ulster unionist will have majority. Corbyn and SNAP will not.

So there will be nrexit, but a woman almost ruined it. May will be gone within the month.

Anonymous Bobby Farr June 09, 2017 1:45 AM  

It is almost like running as a moderate leftist who calls yourself a conservative doesn't work any more. At least she did better than McCain.

Blogger Doom June 09, 2017 1:59 AM  

It looks like they used terrorism to nix Brexit. But, then, Brexit wasn't every really going to happen, was it? No one, save those who voted for it, wanted it. Slaves want to be slaves, even if it means all that it does. Elites are the worst of slaves, it seems.

Anonymous gxg June 09, 2017 3:35 AM  

It looks like they used terrorism to nix Brexit.
Wouldn't terrorism encourage Brexit? It's an honest question. As an American, I might be missing a nuance here.

About May, her response to the attacks seemed pretty pathetic, especially when she zoomed in on regulating the internet. We all know where that leads -- to harassment of the native population for hate speech.

As far as candidates, it seemed like there was no good choice.

Anonymous Anonymous June 09, 2017 3:40 AM  

This is not as bad as it appears. Keep an eye on what is taking damage: Britons have again rejected the neo-liberal centre. As for the actual culture, it remains too buried under a mass of dead flesh; the centre – the empire – must retreat further before we can make the necessary incisions. The Socialism of Corbyn will produce a lot of blood, but it's a complex surgery.

Anonymous Bel June 09, 2017 3:42 AM  

Apologies for the anonymous comment; I neglected to sign in correctly.

Blogger CM June 09, 2017 10:10 AM  

I think May was a bit limp in her response on the latest attack, and has been moderating the Brexit plan while pursuing her own agenda.

If people voted her party because of the hard line on Brexit, she showed there wasn't much difference between the candidates on what mattered.

I'm just guessing, but I think people prefer labour's social policy if all else is equal.

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