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Thursday, August 24, 2017

Preserving ISIS

This is utter insanity. A strategic white paper by "a veteran authority on the Arab-Israeli conflict and strategic developments in the Mideast and expert on Israeli strategic doctrine" argues for saving the monstrous Islamic State.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY: The West should seek the further weakening of Islamic State, but not its destruction. A weak but functioning IS can undermine the appeal of the caliphate among radical Muslims; keep bad actors focused on one another rather than on Western targets; and hamper Iran’s quest for regional hegemony.

US Defense Secretary Ashton Carter recently gathered defense ministers from allied nations to plan what officials hope will be the decisive stage in the campaign to eradicate the Islamic State (IS) organization. This is a strategic mistake.

IS, a radical Islamist group, has killed thousands of people since it declared an Islamic caliphate in June 2014, with the Syrian city of Raqqa as its de facto capital. It captured tremendous international attention by swiftly conquering large swaths of land and by releasing gruesome pictures of beheadings and other means of execution.

But IS is primarily successful where there is a political void. Although the offensives in Syria and Iraq showed IS’s tactical capabilities, they were directed against failed states with weakened militaries. On occasions when the poorly trained IS troops have met well-organized opposition, even that of non-state entities like the Kurdish militias, the group’s performance has been less convincing. When greater military pressure was applied and Turkish support dwindled, IS went into retreat.

It is true that IS has ignited immense passion among many young and frustrated Muslims all over the world, and the caliphate idea holds great appeal among believers. But the relevant question is what can IS do, particularly in its current situation? The terrorist activities for which it recently took responsibility were perpetrated mostly by lone wolves who declared their allegiance to IS; they were not directed from Raqqa. On its own, IS is capable of only limited damage.

A weak IS is, counterintuitively, preferable to a destroyed IS. IS is a magnet for radicalized Muslims in countries throughout the world. These volunteers are easier targets to identify, saving intelligence work. They acquire destructive skills in the fields of Syria and Iraq that are of undoubted concern if they return home, but some of them acquire shaheed status while still away – a blessing for their home countries. If IS is fully defeated, more of these people are likely to come home and cause trouble.

If IS loses control over its territory, the energies that went into protecting and governing a state will be directed toward organizing more terrorist attacks beyond its borders. The collapse of IS will produce a terrorist diaspora that might further radicalize Muslim immigrants in the West. Most counter-terrorism agencies understand this danger. Prolonging the life of IS probably assures the deaths of more Muslim extremists at the hands of other bad guys in the Middle East, and is likely to spare the West several terrorist attacks.
This is utter madness and lends support to the idea that ISIS was, if not an outright creation of a US-Israeli alliance, at least supported by both the United States and Israel. This is not realpolitik, or whatever its advocates might like to style it, it is hubris and dangerous lunacy.

These jokers claim to be expert strategists, and yet they reliably fail to predict even the most obvious events. And their advice is reliably terrible.

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89 Comments:

Anonymous 5343 Kinds of Deplorable August 24, 2017 6:36 AM  

I am so sick of this incessant, worse-than-useless foreign meddling. Get out, get out, get out -- then get out some more. And stay out. Period.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera August 24, 2017 6:38 AM  

If you kill your enemies, they win.

Blogger ZhukovG August 24, 2017 6:44 AM  

The CIA must have really been fond of this resource.

Anonymous 5343 Kinds of Deplorable August 24, 2017 6:46 AM  

If you kill your enemies, they win.

Let's try it and see.

Blogger Phillip George August 24, 2017 6:50 AM  

But, but, Colin Powell tells us Assad is using barrel bombs on his own kindergartens, hospitals, multi ethnic places of respectful diverse worship etc. Unless we are prepared to get our hands a little soiled with less than utterly clean proxies we will never be free of this monster. CNN talking points. And don't forget the gas attacks. War is peace, Winston Smith.
http://82.221.129.208/goolag.jpg

Anonymous Rocklea August 24, 2017 6:51 AM  

Lets give them Democracy. Again. Or just bomb them some more. Then invite them over, imagine all the untapped intellectual minds we're missing out on.. the doctors, the engineers, the philosophical leaders from the religion of peace. I can almost taste the tolerance and smell the vibrancy. Diversity is, and continues to be, our strength.

Blogger Josh (the sexiest thing here) August 24, 2017 6:52 AM  

IS is a magnet for radicalized Muslims in countries throughout the world. These volunteers are easier targets to identify, saving intelligence work.

Neocons made the same argument about Iraq ten years ago. It was just as stupid then as it is now.

Blogger Antony August 24, 2017 6:52 AM  

Sounds like a (((ploy))) to keep a proxy group in place to destabilise secular governments in the area who are considered hostile.

Blogger ZhukovG August 24, 2017 6:55 AM  

Our Globalist masters wanted to destroy Syria in order to create a corridor for a gas pipeline. That Russia, with a couple squadrons of combat aircraft and a few Spetznaz, was able to destroy this plan makes me smile.

Anonymous basementhomebrewer August 24, 2017 6:56 AM  

How long till someone writes an analysis that says "let just one low yield nuclear bomb slip into their hands". "They would likely use it on another Muslim faction rather than a Western country." Then "Even if used on a western city the collateral would be acceptable since it would give the illusion they were gaining strength which would increase their magnetism on potential radicals".

These are insane strategies that are being cooked up by people who think they or their families would never have to pay the costs associated with them. The unspoken point in these analyses is the added bonus of additional budget for their surveillance operations to "fight and track" the weakened ISIS.

Blogger ZhukovG August 24, 2017 7:02 AM  

@basementhomebrewer: Hey, it's just one little bomb. We used two on Japan and they're fine.

Anonymous Bowman August 24, 2017 7:17 AM  

When you have no reason to go at war, go at war.
When you have all the reasons to go at war, don't go at war.
Funny how it works.

Blogger Cail Corishev August 24, 2017 7:19 AM  

If this is earnest, if the author really believes this and it's not a fairy tale being told to excuse meddling for other reasons, you could find it in the encyclopedia under "Overthinking It, Examples."

I'm trying to imagine an analogy, like rural Americans actively supporting an urban mafia, so that any "radicalized" youth who happen to emerge from their midst will go off to the cities and join the mafia rather than stay home and cause trouble there.

No, too stupid, no one would buy it.

Blogger Harry Goldblatt MD August 24, 2017 7:36 AM  

The author seems to think that ISIS is a static phenomenon that can be contained within a small geographic area. That is a dangerous assumption.
ISIS as a continuous presence creates fire-breathers among the muslim populations globally. It is a catalyst for further jihadist activity.
Their defeat in Syria and Iraq would end the caliphate and cause a massive blow to the prestige of their backers: Qatar, Saudis, Kuwait and to some extent Turkey.
I suspect the author is more concerned about Iranian influence in the region than terrorism in Western countries.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera August 24, 2017 7:37 AM  

This is unironically advocating anarchotyranny.

Blogger Phillip George August 24, 2017 7:42 AM  

What this situation calls for is independent contractor advisers not based in Houston without tax haven bank accounts, whose actions we don't scrutinize too closely, to act as sort of intermediaries. Has democracy ever had better point people?
What worked just fine in Charlottesville will bring regime change everywhere.
THE DEEP STATE, UNSEEN AND UNTHANKED.

Blogger mark auld August 24, 2017 7:48 AM  

Good example of how disconnected from reality some of these think tank strategists are,reminds me of McNamara and the Vietnam war.

Blogger Out of Nod August 24, 2017 7:48 AM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Out of Nod August 24, 2017 7:51 AM  

These people also let groups like Antifa run free in our own streets instead of treating it like the terrorist organization that it is.

These people may be expert strategists...but what is the real end goal that they are trying to achieve?

I ask the same question when a politician says, "those are not our values" or "that is not who we are". What values are they referring to when they say that?

Blogger Silly but True August 24, 2017 7:53 AM  

"It is true that IS has ignited immense passion among many young and frustrated Muslims all over the world..."

They just need to learn there's a better way. They do like guns. Anyone show them Po-dunk?

Blogger Phunctor August 24, 2017 7:57 AM  

What is this "we" that (((you))) speak of, Kemo Sabe?

Blogger bosscauser August 24, 2017 8:04 AM  

But but we've been so successful in the middle East. ..
Jesus these people are stupid!

Gab.ai/GaryCauser

Blogger Phillip George August 24, 2017 8:18 AM  

@19 "Antifa run free"

are you serious? We have the best Antifa money can buy.

Anonymous Azimus August 24, 2017 8:18 AM  

This article was written a year ago, before Mosul or even Aleppo fell, much less Raqqa. In the Raqqa countryside today, tribes formerly allied with IS have switched sides. IS has no offensive capability, is cut off and dying - despite Henry Kissinger's best efforts. It can't be the "loser magnet" and counterweight to Iran anymore. It's over.

OK so same question about Iran as I had with Saddam Hussein - no matter who owns the oil wells, they're going to sell it right? So what do we care which particular flavor of muslim pumps it out of the ground? Tucker Carlson rightly points out that Saudi Arabia is a factory for active, violent islamists while none have come from Iran to my knowledge.

Blogger Robert What? August 24, 2017 8:21 AM  

When you realize that the main purpose of ISIS is to destabilize Syria then it makes sense. Israel would rather deal with a hodge podge of radicalized little fiefdoms than a stable Syria with a functioning military. So what if thousands of Christians are slaughtered in the process. That's not Israel's problem.

Blogger VoodooJock August 24, 2017 8:25 AM  

Hey, these people play Risk on boardgame night. They know what they're doing.

Anonymous Ominous Cowherd August 24, 2017 8:27 AM  

Azimus wrote:OK so same question about Iran as I had with Saddam Hussein - no matter who owns the oil wells, they're going to sell it right?

Indeed. The Arabs cannot eat or drink oil; they simply cannot develop or maintain the technology. They must sell oil to smarter, more capable races for food and water, or most of them die of thirst and starvation, and the rest go back to burning camel dung for cook fires.

Nuclear power spells the end of Islam-as-threat.

Anonymous Azimus August 24, 2017 8:27 AM  

ZhukovG August 24, 2017 6:55 AM
Our Globalist masters wanted to destroy Syria in order to create a corridor for a gas pipeline.


I have heard this said many times, and I understand it is more efficient way to transport oil than tanker. But how much more efficient? Are we talking $1/bbl, $10/bbl, $20/bbl? Presumably this would make Saudi Arabia more competitive with Russia for the European market, but doesn't Russia have options also for pipelines? I read they were building an additional pipeline in the Adriatic region somewhere - doesn't that seriously check the value of a pipeline through Syria? If a longer pipeline were built through Iraq into Turkey, wouldn't that save 80-90% of what the Syria pipeline could save, and forego a risky war? Why do the globalists favor Saudi oil? I know it's a lot of questions but I'm genuinely curious.

Anonymous Starbuck August 24, 2017 8:27 AM  

These volunteers are easier targets to identify, saving intelligence work. They acquire destructive skills in the fields of Syria and Iraq that are of undoubted concern if they return home, but some of them acquire shaheed status while still away – a blessing for their home countries. If IS is fully defeated, more of these people are likely to come home and cause trouble.

Easy targets to identify? But if ISIS is destroyed and they come back home then they might cause trouble. What kind of gobbldy gook is this? If they are easy to identify then when they return home arrest them and put them on trial. Once they are sentenced to 20 years hard labor, make their labor be farming pigs the whole time.

Blogger Johnny August 24, 2017 8:28 AM  

ZhukovG wrote:Our Globalist masters wanted to destroy Syria in order to create a corridor for a gas pipeline. That Russia, with a couple squadrons of combat aircraft and a few Spetznaz, was able to destroy this plan makes me smile.

What I think to be true is that the core fight is between different religious, ethnic, and national groups in Arabia. The Saudi Arabia is the apparent principal on one side and Iran on the other. We, apparently, got into covertly supporting ISIS because of our sort of alliance with Saudi Arabia, and of course because of Obama. On the other side Russia is aligned with Iran with Syria a partner in the arrangement.

While I have no use for Iran, I don't think the interests of Russian and the Untied States are different enough for us to have Russia as an inherent enemy. So, I say let Syria reassert control of its nation state territory, which would be a win for Russia at the expense of Saudi Arabian backed ISIS. Not that bad a deal for the Untied States.

Otherwise getting rid of ISIS is pretty much a whack-a-mole game. Hit him in one hole and he pops up in another. As for drawing in the radicals, I wonder if we shouldn't be trying to sponsor false flag radical groups. Invent you own opposition. But then the way Arabia is they are probably doing that already.

Blogger Johnny August 24, 2017 8:35 AM  

Starbuck wrote: If IS is fully defeated, more of these people are likely to come home and cause trouble...



The establishment of a radical group in Arabia is an active problem for Russia. The concern is that they will be able to project power into the Islamic minority in Russia. That would be not only the individual fighters going into Russia, but also having a base area for organization and funding.

Anonymous Starbuck August 24, 2017 8:37 AM  

Why do the globalists favor Saudi oil? - Azimus

Saudi oil is "light sweet crude"-easier and cheaper to distill (refineeries).
Saudi has a lot of this oil and the infrastructure for pumping and selling it.

Anonymous Azimus August 24, 2017 8:43 AM  

"...I read they were building an additional pipeline in the Adriatic region somewhere..."

Sorry I meant Baltic region. German Ocean. My bad.

Blogger Chris Mallory August 24, 2017 8:55 AM  

Azimus wrote:Tucker Carlson rightly points out that Saudi Arabia is a factory for active, violent islamists while none have come from Iran to my knowledge.

True, but Iran gives money to Hezbollah. Izzy hates Hezbollah since Hezbollah has bloodied Izzy's nose a time or two. Saudi just funds Sunni terrorist groups who for some reason never attack Izzy. So Iran bad, Saudi good.

Anonymous Anonymous August 24, 2017 8:59 AM  

This isn't the first time a neocon has openly argued "Support ISIS, because ISIS is good for Israel."

Anonymous JamesD August 24, 2017 9:14 AM  

It's a gas pipeline from the Israel Leviathan field. Tankers don't work for gas.

Blogger Lucas August 24, 2017 9:15 AM  

Thr Us and Israel invested a lot and so, they dont want to loose money.

Anonymous JamesD August 24, 2017 9:16 AM  

Syria backs Hezbollah which basically defeated Israel in 2007. That's all you need to know.

Anonymous joe doakes August 24, 2017 9:17 AM  

Experts look at logistics, right? ISIS fighters need beans and bullets. Who's paying for them? Ignore the ruffians in rags, find the paymaster. When his family disappears but his head appears on a pike, tell the TV news you're dismayed at this distressing turn of events and then give the team who found him a fistful of medals. The right people will get the right message.

Blogger dc.sunsets August 24, 2017 9:17 AM  

Wasn't the excuse for Mideast intervention once O.I.L?

Just reason #864 that it's BS rationalizations All The Way Down.

Blogger peter blandings August 24, 2017 9:21 AM  

you say be patient and i've been patient far too long. who exactly is the commander in chief here, Betty White?

Blogger ZhukovG August 24, 2017 9:27 AM  

@Azimus and Johnny: As for cost, I'm not precisely sure. However I do recall reading that where the Keystone pipeline using Trains the cost for shipping gas by pipeline was approx. 1/3 the cost.

The Middle East is a kaleidoscope of various, sometimes contradictory, interests. Israel wants Iran knocked out as does Saudi Arabia. So Israel becomes a defacto supporter of Wahhabist(the guys who allegedly committed the 9/11 attacks) Islam.

The US is trying to take down Russia and Russia is trying to avoid this.

The backdrop for all of this is the centuries old conflict between Sunni and Shia Islam. Think Catholic vs Protestant, Wars of Religion etc.

The US and Israel end up supporting the frankly whackadoodle Sunni. While Russia lucks out again and gets to support the relatively sane (owing to millennia of civilization in Persia)Shia.

Anonymous Überdeplorable Psychedelic Cat Grass August 24, 2017 9:29 AM  

The article was written a year ago and I'm curious what Efraim would say now. As you said Vox, it's utter madness. A weak IS wouldn't dissuade Muslims (they're not radical fool, they're normal; look up the Virtue of the West interview with Bill White or read the Quran).

There were some shaheeds in Barç last week. We also damn near got some more in the Netherlands yesterday. So much for martyrdom in Iraq or Syria.

Yes seeing Hizbollah bleed (which killed more Americans than any other Islamic group pre 9/11) is a good thing, same with Iran (which has hated us since '79), it won't go on forever. You gotta enjoy it while it lasts.

Morons like the guy that wrote the article are one of the reasons I never ended up getting a PhD in political science and/or wanted to work in the think tank. People like him are idiots.

Blogger Robert Coble August 24, 2017 9:30 AM  

Current US Defense Secretary is James Mattis. Thank God it is no longer SJW Ashton Carter! I seriously doubt Gen. Mattis would accept "advice" from this so-called "strategic expert."

It reminds me of the "advice" a senior executive tried to give to Max De Pree, CEO of Herman Miller Inc. Herman Miller was expecting a group of "big shots" from the Georgia state government for a tour of the business. This exec advised putting pink ice into the urinals to impress them; Mr. De Pree was "underwhelmed". It got a chapter "" in De Pree's book Leadership is an Art - highly recommended!

I suggest reading the Nassim Nicholas Taleb essay The Intellectual Yet Idiot, which perfectly describes that fool "strategist":

The Intellectual Yet Idiot

MPAI does NOT mean Most People Are Intellectuals.

Blogger LES August 24, 2017 9:50 AM  

Is it true that Israeli General Shahak was leading ISIS and was captured by Shiite militia in 2015?

Blogger Josh (the sexiest thing here) August 24, 2017 10:19 AM  

Is it true that Israeli General Shahak was leading ISIS and was captured by Shiite militia in 2015?

No idea, do your own research.

Blogger LES August 24, 2017 10:22 AM  

@46 I did. That's how I have the name. Just looking for confirmation or denial.

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey August 24, 2017 10:23 AM  

Yinon Plan>>> "A Clean Break">>> PNAC

This is consistent with a long term strategy that was first laid out decades ago.

Blogger August August 24, 2017 10:29 AM  

Osama bin Laden would be pleased. The Caliphate is beginning to cohere due to U.S. stupidity; now we have top Israeli levels of stupid arguing to keep it around.

Blogger pnq8787 August 24, 2017 10:31 AM  

@27 Nuclear power and Diversity don't mix well. First we need to get an ethno-state going, then we can talk about nuclear power.

Anonymous Avalanche August 24, 2017 10:45 AM  

The terrorist activities for which it recently took responsibility were perpetrated mostly by lone wolves who declared their allegiance to IS; they were not directed from Raqqa. On its own, IS is capable of only limited damage.

Guessing this guy lives in a gated community, eh?


The collapse of IS will produce a terrorist diaspora that might further radicalize Muslim immigrants in the West. Most counter-terrorism agencies understand this danger.

Oh wait, was this essay by Saddiq Khan? We-all just have to get USED to terrorism as a part of (Western) big city life!?


IS, a radical Islamist group, has killed thousands of people since it declared an Islamic caliphate ... releasing gruesome pictures of beheadings and other means of execution.

("Yeah, but they were all just moslem arabs, and WE'VE been trying to kill them all since israel was wrested away from them! Keep 'em killing!")


If IS loses control over its territory, the energies that went into protecting and governing a state will be directed toward organizing more terrorist attacks beyond its borders.

You mean, like, how they ARE losing territories (as he just described!), and they ARE increasing Western terrorism?!

Maybe he should open his gated community to "save" a few of those "thousands of people" being killed?

Every. single. time.

Anonymous Just another commenter August 24, 2017 10:46 AM  

Their advice is reliably terrible if you assume that their official goals and job description accurately describe what their actual mission is.

That said, I can see how this logic would appeal to a midwit segment of the upper management at some three-letter agencies in the same way that the Communist Manifesto appeals to low-IQ proles: it appeals to their ego and makes them think they are really the ones with heightened consciousness, not a mere false consciousness, and they are actually sooper-smart and woke and playin' 4-D chess 'n sheet.

Anonymous Avalanche August 24, 2017 10:55 AM  

@42 The backdrop for all of this is the centuries old conflict between Sunni and Shia Islam. Think Catholic vs Protestant, Wars of Religion etc.

Have you not read Vox's The Irrational Atheist about "religious" wars?

I'm reading it now. Quite eye-opening!

Anonymous Jessica Owen August 24, 2017 11:01 AM  

Really?

Anonymous George Desmond August 24, 2017 11:02 AM  

My thoughts exactly

Anonymous Ibrahim Umar August 24, 2017 11:03 AM  

LOL

Anonymous George August 24, 2017 11:05 AM  

Another version

Anonymous Google Strategist August 24, 2017 11:07 AM  

Quite revealing

Blogger ((( bob kek mando ))) - ( You are Welcome ... to go back to the hell hole you came from ) August 24, 2017 11:11 AM  

24. Azimus August 24, 2017 8:18 AM
This article was written a year ago, before Mosul or even Aleppo fell, much less Raqqa.



so what? that doesn't make the strategery any less stupid.

the Koran calls muslims to establish and live in a Caliphate under Sharia law.

anything that encourages that is asinine stupidity.

Blogger James Dixon August 24, 2017 12:22 PM  

> Tankers don't work for gas.

You've never heard of an LNG carrier? https://infogalactic.com/info/LNG_carrier

Blogger Noah B The Savage Gardener August 24, 2017 1:04 PM  

Studies from these strategic think tanks should never be taken at face value; these people are paid shills. The agenda they're being paid to push here is endless war in the Middle East.

Blogger Allen Skeens August 24, 2017 1:37 PM  

Only if you don't kill enough of them.

Blogger Thucydides August 24, 2017 1:46 PM  

@14
If Turkey wants to fund ISIS to beat the Kurds or the Gulf States want to fund ISIS to fight Iran and the Shiites, that is their issue, and they can deal with the fallout. Trying to control rabid dogs is madness. If they want to do that, but America and the West is only obliged to shoot rabid dogs, or quarantine the area so they don't escape.

Blogger Tatooine Sharpshooters' Club August 24, 2017 2:18 PM  

This is utter madness and lends support to the idea that ISIS was, if not an outright creation of a US-Israeli alliance, at least supported by both the United States and Israel.

What about the House of Saud? Why don't those Wahhabist freaks get mentioned in connection with ISIS, of which they are one of the prime funders and from which they derive great geopolitical benefit (and a local population pressure relief valve)? "American" Mideast policy seems almost explicable if viewed as "the state of affairs they want in Riyadh."

Prolonging the life of IS probably assures the deaths of more Muslim extremists at the hands of other bad guys in the Middle East, and is likely to spare the West several terrorist attacks.

Apparently he's never read Dune; this approach will only serve to weed out the weakest of the Fremen jihadis, and the survivors will emerge more aggressive and free from doubt.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 24, 2017 2:24 PM  

The transport cost of LNG is complex,but generally pipelines are a small fraction of the cost of modal (ship, railcar, truck) transport. This is largely due to the requirement to liquify the gas for ship transport, and to keep it very cold at about-260 F, consuming part of the gas.

Blogger Elder Son August 24, 2017 2:31 PM  

@39 Who's paying for them? Ignore the ruffians in rags, find the paymaster.

They can't find the paymaster. If they did, they would have to admit it is the U.S.A. and it's United Sunni Coalition. @63

Anyhow, just look up The Club of Rome map. Look at Region 7. It is hard to miss as it is all purple. Also look directly North of Israel on the map and you will note Turkey, which should/will be purple. AmuriKa and it's Israel/Sunni allies are fulfilling prophecy.

https://wonderfultruth.files.wordpress.com/2010/12/club-of-rome-map.jpg

You will also note the dominoes falling since 1972.

Blogger Elder Son August 24, 2017 2:34 PM  

@64 What about the House of Saud? Why don't those Wahhabist freaks get mentioned in connection with ISIS

Ohhh...Boo-Hoo!

Blogger Dan Kurt August 24, 2017 2:50 PM  

@65. Snidely Whiplash
"The transport cost of LNG is complex"

Trivial point if the Natural Gas is being vented and Burned which is happening in the Middle East. A pipeline or LNG shipping makes sense at some price points.

Dan Kurt

Blogger Elder Son August 24, 2017 3:03 PM  

For those interested, here is the condensed version of Joel Richardson's take on the Arab/Persian/Sunni/Shia conflict.

https://youtu.be/LtVvtfvwRWs

Full Pt. I and II

https://youtu.be/GCkcgmUfrjs

https://youtu.be/4wzZEGCK1Gs

Anonymous Mr. Rational August 24, 2017 3:10 PM  

Ominous Cowherd wrote:Nuclear power spells the end of Islam-as-threat.
Indeed it does.  So why is it so hard to get the right (alt or otherwise) behind a renewal of nuclear?  Why do we let the NRC demand absolute perfection from nukes, when we ask it of literally nothing else?  That's what's driving the escalating costs, not anything inherent in the technology.

@50  You do your hiring from the Navy.  Diversity recruits don't get through the nuclear program.

Blogger DonReynolds August 24, 2017 3:10 PM  

What seemed to work well for about a thousand years was to confine the bastards to the desert regions of the world. Few civilized people care to live in the desert and (quite honestly) the only reason any First World country gives a fig is because of the vast oil reserves that have been discovered there in the last century. Of course, the oil has always been there and was mentioned in Bible and used for medicinal purposes.

What is new in the past century is the common use of oil in the place of coal...for boiler fuel (ships) and later refined for motor fuel for automobiles. What remains after kerosene and gasoline, are the petrochemical stocks that are now made into various plastics, wax, and chemical agents. In the past these residuals were simply dumped in the rivers, now we make them into useful products.

While the West has done a truly marvelous job of creating a vast petrochemical empire, that never before existed, there is no convenient or practical way of separating the insane people from the oil reserves under their feet. We have tried diplomacy and we have tried cold hard cash and we have tried to be friends with the crazies, but none of which seems to be reliable in the long term. No matter how much we desire peaceful trade, we end up dealing with unstable governments where violence is the norm. Perhaps it is part of their religion and there is constant vying for power among themselves.

Our choices are few it seems. Getting married to the temporary rascal in charge does not seem to be wise. When he is overthrown, we become the bad guy and blamed (perhaps rightly) for all of the weapons we sold him to oppress the others. This creates resentment and intransigent attitudes and poisoned relations, so we try to align with others to overthrow the new governmental authority. That cycle has no ending.

Either accept that the people with the oil reserves are crazy and unstable and trade as you can with them....and let them sort out who is in charge....or stop buying oil from them until they get their act together. Some have suggested military occupation to defend the oil fields and the pipelines. Like with any other military adventure, sometimes that will work and other times it will not. Just ask the French Foreign Legion.

Blogger Elder Son August 24, 2017 3:24 PM  

The principalities certainly are interested in the geography/resources of the Arab/Persia nations, it sets the stage for a Greater Caliphate. A Powerhouse if you will. Spiritual Geography?

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 24, 2017 3:51 PM  

Dan Kurt wrote:Trivial point if the Natural Gas is being vented and burned which is happening in the Middle East. A pipeline or LNG shipping makes sense at some price points.


Basically, the just cost of transport the gas via ship can easily exceed the cost of piped gas. So, yes, you're right, it all depends of the market price for gas at the destination. But in virtually every case, if you can put it in a pipe, it will be cheaper to transport.

Blogger DonReynolds August 24, 2017 4:23 PM  

Snidely Whiplash wrote:Dan Kurt wrote:Trivial point if the Natural Gas is being vented and burned which is happening in the Middle East. A pipeline or LNG shipping makes sense at some price points.



Basically, the just cost of transport the gas via ship can easily exceed the cost of piped gas. So, yes, you're right, it all depends of the market price for gas at the destination. But in virtually every case, if you can put it in a pipe, it will be cheaper to transport.


You should mention that very few ports can handle LNG shipments, and very few ships that can transport LNG.
It is extremely dangerous.....but there are no natural gas pipelines that cross oceans. An explosion at a LNG port would be like a small nuke going off.

Blogger James Dixon August 24, 2017 4:45 PM  

> The transport cost of LNG is complex,but generally pipelines are a small fraction of the cost of modal (ship, railcar, truck) transport.

All true.

> So why is it so hard to get the right (alt or otherwise) behind a renewal of nuclear?

So where have you seen a posiion saying the alt-right opposes nuclear power?

> Why do we let the NRC demand absolute perfection from nukes,

Have you actually looked at the liability laws for nuclear power plants?
> You should mention that very few ports can handle LNG shipments, and very few ships that can transport LNG.

Building the ships is relatively easy. The ports are more problematic.

> An explosion at a LNG port would be like a small nuke going off.

Yes, but pipelines are also dangerous to those in their immediate vicinity, and even easier targets. Any pipeline going through the middle east is going to be targeted on a regular basis by one faction or another.

Anonymous Anonymous August 24, 2017 6:12 PM  

Destabilizing a region to create a kill zone is as old as dirt. And has been effective when managed correctly

Problem is America with our fake moral superiority We're the good guys bullshit is just shit at playing those sort of hard core games.

Folks around here like to confuse truth and morality with things like survival, victory and the things that brings your people strength prosperity and expansion

Anonymous Anonymous August 24, 2017 6:25 PM  

As for what would discourage or encourage moslems....
Everything encourages them, the koran tells them the world must convert, die or live as slaves and they can only be at peace for 10 years, during which they are supposed to retool and rearm for war.

That limits political and economic options for peace with hajjis making it basically a military issue

Anonymous Ominous Cowherd August 24, 2017 6:29 PM  

DonReynolds wrote:While the West has done a truly marvelous job of creating a vast petrochemical empire, that never before existed, there is no convenient or practical way of separating the insane people from the oil reserves under their feet. We have tried diplomacy and we have tried cold hard cash and we have tried to be friends with the crazies ...

We have not tried genocide. Yet. Perhaps it's time. We, and Russia, and China could all dispose of old nukes by using them up in low altitude blasts over Middle Eastern mohammedan cities. A productive, low-fallout disposal plan.

Anonymous Andrew Anglin August 24, 2017 6:44 PM  

ISIS has been an Isramerican Sunni terrorist front from the beginning, whose purpose it was to destroy Assad's Shi'a regime, cut the LOC between Hezbollah and Iran, and so give Israel a free run at south Lebanon and other chunks of the ME the Zionists wish to grab. Naturally, Jihadis being Jihadis, ISIS got somewhat out of control and struck first toward Baghdad instead of Damascus. Putting Israel's American puppet in the embarrassing position of having to fight ISIS and support ISIS at the same time. Although Trump isn't (yet) cooperating much, the Zionist (((Deep State))) still hopes to salvage ISIS (and the other Sunni fractions in Syria) and resume the March on Damascus.

Anonymous martin August 24, 2017 8:14 PM  

This is exactly correct. The failure of middle east policy was allowing its violence to expqnd outside the middle east. we want the various countries fighting... now even Saudia Arabia is in the mix.. makes them easier to dwal with and keeps OPEC powerless.

Blogger Dave Narby August 24, 2017 9:16 PM  

Of course they want to preserve ISIS! They spent a lot of money on it!

Without ISIS to destabilize the ME, they'll need to create some other boogeyman to justify expansion.

This article is worth a read, but if you're in a hurry, scroll down and look at the map. http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-08-23/moar-pipeline-wars-jews-fear-being-gassed-their-own-government-exports-europe-even-b

And then there's the matter of oil and gas under the occupied Golan heights. http://www.thecitizen.in/index.php/NewsDetail/index/1/4524/Israel-Uses-Syrian-Chaos-to-Drill-for-Oil-in-the-Golan-Heights

Why pay for it when you can just steal it? It's been working so far, and it's clearly much more fun. If you're an psychopath that's been selectively (in)breeding for that trait, that is...

Anonymous Mr. Rational August 24, 2017 10:07 PM  

James Dixon wrote:So where have you seen a posiion saying the alt-right opposes nuclear power?
So where has there been an alt-right rally opposing the shutdown of a nuclear plant?  Indian Point and Diablo Canyon are under threat, and Ft. Calhoun went offline a little less than a year ago.  Vermont Yankee probably hasn't been irreversibly damaged and would only need some inspections and the proper paperwork to restart—paperwork that the NRC has no procedures to issue.  It's a $2 billion asset killed by local leftist politics.

There are environmentalists rallying to save Diablo Canyon.  Where's the alt-right?
Have you actually looked at the liability laws for nuclear power plants?
Price-Anderson?  Of course.  But NRC regulations and INPO standards are not laws, yet they are major drivers of the cost of nuclear energy.

Blogger EscapeVelocity August 24, 2017 11:11 PM  

Pro tip, the Israelis were always supportive of ISIS attacks on Assad (and therefore Iran).

Theyve given them aid and assisted Obama & Clinton in doing so.

Their allies in this endeavor is Saudi Arabia.

Blogger James Dixon August 25, 2017 7:49 PM  

> So where has there been an alt-right rally opposing the shutdown of a nuclear plant?

So your answer to the question is "nowhere" then.

The alt-right is a nascent group with limited resources and a lot of targets. Why are you surprised your pet peeve hasn't made the top of the list yet?

However, "If you organize it, they will come."

It's your pet peeve. If it's that important to you, contact the relevant people and start organizing. It's way down on my list.

> But NRC regulations and INPO standards are not laws, yet they are major drivers of the cost of nuclear energy.

Why don't you take that up with someone who can do something abut it: https://energy.gov/contact-us

Blogger Vernon August 26, 2017 4:33 AM  

If violence wasn't your last resort, you failed to resort to enough of it.

Anonymous Mr. Rational August 26, 2017 11:56 AM  

@84 The NRC is an independent agency, not part of the DOE.  INPO isn't part of the government at all.

Blogger Charles555nc August 26, 2017 3:55 PM  

Its like the moderate lefties saying "just appease Antifa" or "just appease the communists" and "they will go away". Appeasement does not destroy movements or de-radicalize them. "Just let ISIS survive and there will be LESS terror attacks". Bull fking shit.

Blogger Elwin Ransom August 30, 2017 1:11 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Elwin Ransom August 30, 2017 1:12 PM  

LOL, whoops.

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