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Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Steep decline

The NFL appears to have crossed a tipping point. This is beginning to exceed the magnitude of the decline I expected, which I guessed would be on the order of 20 percent.

Week 10 year-on-year ratings
-24% Late DH
-22% SNF
-02% TNF
-22% Early DH
-10% Various single

A number of these were good games too, including Dallas-Atlanta, New England-Denver, and Minnesota-Washington. We may see numbers south of -30% before the end of the season, which would be truly shocking. No wonder the behavior of the owners and the league office is getting increasingly strange.

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110 Comments:

Anonymous Nick November 15, 2017 4:16 AM  

I for one stopped watching the 49ers and the NFL once Kaepernick started kneeling last year (though I had already grown bored of the sport and was only sporadically interested, too many let-downs from management, referees, player behavior, etc.) With all of the media options available today, I'd rather spend time reading or doing something else productive. Even when I was an avid Niners fan I preferred to listen on the radio while doing chores. Committing 3+ hours sitting on your butt to watch sports always seemed like a massive waste of time. When the sports are overt vehicles for anti-American, anti-white politics, the choice to turn it off is easy.

Blogger SciVo November 15, 2017 4:49 AM  

Is the hypothesis that being converged, they will endlessly double down, to the point of blaming their audience for being wrong?

Blogger VD November 15, 2017 4:55 AM  

Is the hypothesis that being converged, they will endlessly double down, to the point of blaming their audience for being wrong?

It depends how many of the owners are converged. The league office isn't ultimately in charge. But yes, Goodell will clearly double down until he is removed.

Blogger SciVo November 15, 2017 4:58 AM  

I've seen at least some hints of that. If they actually refuse to back down and stop protesting against American unity, the sky's the limit for the declines.

Anonymous Charlottesvillain November 15, 2017 5:12 AM  

Calamitous. Good. And let's not forget that we're comparing the ratings to 2016, which declined 8% from the year before.

Anonymous karsten November 15, 2017 5:19 AM  

Good. I'm forever baffled that whites have ever had any interest in negro-ball. Perhaps they're finally waking up.

Blogger John M November 15, 2017 5:29 AM  

SciVo wrote:Is the hypothesis that being converged, they will endlessly double down, to the point of blaming their audience for being wrong?

Being converged, they are happy to shred the neckbeard audience because they think that will lead the NFL to a new, more diverse audience. The decline is the target, not the cost.

Anonymous JAG November 15, 2017 5:35 AM  

Jerry Jones is trying to stop the Goodell extension. He got into a pissing match with Blank in Atlanta, and there were laughable threats of forcing Jones to sell the Cowboys.

I was a bit surprised at empty seats and low ratings for the Dallas game. They were one of the last teams pulling consistent ratings because they have so many fans as well as haters. The Elliott suspension probably added to an already present declining mood of the fans.

I've also read a few tweets and articles indicating that it's pretty much a done deal that Goodell not only gets extended, he also gets 50 million and lifetime healthcare. There will also be a better than average chance of a strike next time the CBA is up.

Even darker times ahead for the NFL.

Anonymous Charlottesvillain November 15, 2017 5:37 AM  

@7 It's called inclusivity, straight white cis male scum!

Anonymous JAG November 15, 2017 5:40 AM  

Charlottesvillain wrote:@7 It's called inclusivity, straight white cis male scum!

It's not okay to be White.

Blogger Phillip George November 15, 2017 5:50 AM  

Hitler believed in the separation of Sport and State. The NFL should comfort themselves with the 1936 outcome.

Everything returned to normal after just a couple of missed games.

Goodwin remembered

Blogger James Dixon November 15, 2017 5:51 AM  

> I've also read a few tweets and articles indicating that it's pretty much a done deal that Goodell not only gets extended, he also gets 50 million and lifetime healthcare.

Sounds like they're hellbent on doing so, yes. Jones probably isn't the only one who doesn't like it, but he's the only one willing to say so.

They should fire Goodell and hire Rush Limbaugh to be the commissioner. How to fix the NFL in one easy step.

Blogger James Dixon November 15, 2017 5:52 AM  

Of course, if Jones and Kraft decided to pull their teams from the NFL and start a new league, the NFL would be in a world of hurt and a bunch of the other teams would probably go with them.

Blogger Christopher B November 15, 2017 6:07 AM  

I saw an amazing stat the other day - it's down to three kneelers. If that's true the failure to fine their asses til they stand is almost unbelievable, though I can see the worry about a general revolt occurring again such as happened after the first Trump tweet. Anybody watching who can confirm? Are the linked arm routines still happening?

Anonymous Difster November 15, 2017 6:08 AM  

I'm down to looking in on scores and standings once in a while.

I predict they'll try to boost viewers and attendance by lame attempts at appealing to women. They'll start with appointing a woman as a head coach. She will of course hire a number of other women, including lesbians of course and gay men.

Then of course there will be a female kicker who will be touted for her awesome kicking ability and then fail spectacularly under pressure.

Blogger Sillon Bono November 15, 2017 6:12 AM  

A number of these were good games too, including Dallas-Atlanta, New England-Denver, and Minnesota-Washington.

One does not make good publicity for the enemy! Lol.

Blogger Howard Stone November 15, 2017 6:14 AM  

Call me crazy, but I’ve suspected this whole taking a knee thing was preplanned and organized as a sort of anti National psyop, but Hillary was supposed to win the election to help with it. She would have come out in favor of it and would have helped to promote this anti nationalist movement. That’s what it really is, an attack on the idea of nationalism, on borders and sovereignty, by fostering feelings of shame for our own nation. Donald Trump’s election has thrown a wrench into all of thier plans. And yeah I think that they had many other psyop type events preplanned to compliment Hillary’s presidency as well, and they are still trying to pull them off without her.

Blogger Sillon Bono November 15, 2017 6:17 AM  

@17

It is the old "Leftard Synergy" all elements of the left push the cart on the same direction, and their efforts benefit from an amplification effect.

Blogger Retrenched November 15, 2017 6:17 AM  

It's not okay to be White.


https://youtube.com/watch?v=wuDx6_PLIVk

Blogger Sillon Bono November 15, 2017 6:20 AM  

Phillip George wrote:Hitler believed in the separation of Sport and State. The NFL should comfort themselves with the 1936 outcome.

Everything returned to normal after just a couple of missed games.

Goodwin remembered



This is a case of having a movie playing in your head while your customers are watching an entirely different show.

Blogger SciVo November 15, 2017 6:21 AM  

Christopher B wrote:I saw an amazing stat the other day - it's down to three kneelers.

You misunderstand. On a day for honoring military veterans, where there was an open letter out basically begging them to leave that day alone -- and IIRC it was from the *player's* association -- they *still* had three kneelers.

No respect for the signs and symbols of our national unity. They really, really hate the U.S. of A. and want us to stop being a thing that exists.

Blogger WynnLloyd November 15, 2017 6:24 AM  

It baffles me. Then again I find the actual game fascinating. I just don't have interest in the players. Their being able to run and jump well is not exciting. It's like watching a deer run. Of course they can run. They are built for it.

Blogger Koanic November 15, 2017 6:32 AM  

Negro felons just can't cut it in this era of UFC and CGI gore. We require ultraviolence:

Negro Death Row League. With real axes!

NFL can act as the feeder league.

Where does OJ go after pro? Post!

Also solves the crippled washed-up afalete problem.

Blogger Ian Miguel Martin November 15, 2017 6:34 AM  

I quit watching pro and college about three years ago, for a variety of reasons, including a job that required me to work on Saturdays. Although I’d been a diehard fan from birth, I didn’t even miss it. It was astonishing to realize that for years I’d been watching from sheer habit and not from actual enthusiasm. If they’re anything like me, a lot of these viewers are never coming back.

Blogger Chris Lutz November 15, 2017 6:36 AM  

The NFL has gone into PR overdrive to try and show their patriotism that past few weeks. Even before Veterans Day it was full blown how the NFL loved America. I think they were hoping the media push plus not show the kneelers by not showing the anthem would work. Instead ESPN and the other networks kept talking about it and tanking their own ratings.

Goodell's new contract is insane with $50 million/year, lifetime healthcare, and lifetime use of a private jet.

Blogger Koanic November 15, 2017 6:39 AM  

I see no reason why the NFL should show respect for military veterans. The NFL's civilian casualties are way lower than the US Army's, and the occasional post-game riot is nothing compared to imploding the Middle East.

Blogger VD November 15, 2017 6:40 AM  

Good. I'm forever baffled that whites have ever had any interest in negro-ball. Perhaps they're finally waking up.

Don't you ever get tired of repeatedly posting the same idiocy over and over and over again? Do you seriously not realize how counterproductive it is?

Football is one of the greatest sports ever invented. It is a fascinating chess game. The fact that it happens to be poorly managed at the professional level and is currently optimized to feature black athletes doesn't change that. All you manage to do is make yourself look retarded by calling it "negroball".

Just because you're too fat and stupid to play it or enjoy it doesn't mean everyone is.

Blogger VD November 15, 2017 6:44 AM  

One does not make good publicity for the enemy! Lol.

Wow, you're like Sun Tzu combined with Clausewitz! So strategery!

Anonymous Chris November 15, 2017 6:46 AM  

Goodell has been a disaster for the NFL, which means naturally he gets an insanely good contract. Clown World never rests.

Anonymous Aeoli Pera November 15, 2017 6:48 AM  

No Netflix, no NFL (means no cable)...the immediate future is starting to look very dangerous.

Blogger James Dixon November 15, 2017 6:51 AM  

> Goodell has been a disaster for the NFL, which means naturally he gets an insanely good contract.

It will actually be entertaining to see them give him the new contract, watch the television numbers continue to decline, watch the Superbowl numbers and advertising revenue tank, and have the networks demand a renegotiation of the TV contracts on that basis.

Blogger Azimus November 15, 2017 6:51 AM  

When I was a kid - NFL games were big events. There were parties everywhere, all the time. The game was OK, but the fact you were with people cheering on the team, talking about every play was what made it great. Now I go to a Packer party (I'm from Packer Country), and there are so many commercials, hardly anyone watches the TV. Everyone's either sitting in the kitchen getting fatter, or they're in some corner on their phone staring at the fantasy ticker. The only guys who watch the TV scold everyone to shut up so they can hear the commentary - those anti-social armchair quarterbacks that get mad when a pass is dropped, or the defense substituted in the wrong package, etc. Goodell took the soul out of football somehow - maybe it's all the gay uniforms or castrating special teams or Susan Komen or the rise of the sports nerds, sideline reporters, refs in wind pants, I don't know - but I guess for me the bloom is off the rose. The kneeling was the last kick in the nuts for me. Truthfully I didn't love the military bootlicking either, but that was way better than petulant millionaires behaving rudely for no reason.

Blogger YIH November 15, 2017 6:55 AM  

Chris Lutz wrote:The NFL has gone into PR overdrive to try and show their patriotism that past few weeks. Even before Veterans Day it was full blown how the NFL loved America. I think they were hoping the media push plus not show the kneelers by not showing the anthem would work. Instead ESPN and the other networks kept talking about it and tanking their own ratings.

Goodell's new contract is insane with $50 million/year, lifetime healthcare, and lifetime use of a private jet.

It's because it's November. October is pink ribbon (breast cancer) month, November is camo ribbon (troops and vetrans) month. Before nfl.com changed it's site they would feature one ribbon then the next in the upper-left corner next to the shield.

Blogger Koanic November 15, 2017 6:58 AM  

It's true. With some adjustments, such as banning nonhuman genetic enhancement, football could be a noble sport. Although it would be fun to see gorilloid-hybrid offensive linesmen.

Blogger tublecane November 15, 2017 7:00 AM  

The magnitude of the dropoff surprises me, because I was under the impression that a lot of people just leave the game on in the background without thinking about it. And you can do that whether the league offended you or not.

Maybe that's because aside from watching the local team and some of the playoffs, my only football experience is with holiday games.

Blogger Howard Stone November 15, 2017 7:04 AM  

I’m wondering if one of Goodell’s negotiation points was the assurance that he had been faithful to his wife; it’s strange, but in light of all the recent sex scandals today being a faithful married man could become popular again.

Blogger tublecane November 15, 2017 7:04 AM  

@7-No, they want both the Old and the hypothetical new audience. Decline is not part of the plan.

Though of course some of them either don't care or welcome it, as with all conversion agents.

Blogger Silly but True November 15, 2017 7:06 AM  

At the gym I go to, you always could hear or jump into a comversation about football; I mean even in the middle of summer, it would be how they're going to do. But the last month especially things have been noticeably different. We're now beyond the point of people complaining about people taking a knee; that at least meant people were still watching.

This past weekend, the only one watching the game was a 60-something black woman. So in this informal, random sample, they look to have traded about 14 fans of professionals, entrepreneurs, principals, associates, homeowners, heads of households for 1 retiree on a fixed income. I'm sure Goodell thinks things are fine.

Blogger Lovekraft November 15, 2017 7:07 AM  

Kaper's/BLM's 'cause' is based on false premise. So it all becomes a shakedown racket IMO. While their saint Obama did so much to perpetuate it, as well as hurting the middle/lower classes. Double-wrong.

Pink Feminist Month was when I started noticing NFL convergence.

The culture war has many fronts, pro sports being one of them.

And not to step on VD's toes, and he does have a point that the comment about the race of the players is vulgar, I agree that many start to turn away from supporting them in light of a broader social context (the Jay-Z generation being unbelievably entitled and annoying).

Blogger tublecane November 15, 2017 7:09 AM  

"Trump's Luck" continues.

Who else could have foreseen badmouthing the NFL was such a winning issue?

Of course, as in quantum mechanics, he affects the situation by observing it.

Blogger tublecane November 15, 2017 7:12 AM  

@17-It wouldn't have been a good psy-op, anyway. Because at best people would have swallowed it bitterly. It wouldn't have turned normal people against nationalism like that damn kid on the beach or Nazi riots.

Blogger Lovekraft November 15, 2017 7:16 AM  

OT but something to keep track of. 4chan sets its sights on Sweden.

https://ageofshitlords.com/4chan-launches-operation-swedistan-last-ditch-attempt-save-sweden

Blogger JACIII November 15, 2017 7:27 AM  

As further proof mainstream (((journalists))) are anything but propagandists: We are not getting any of the juicy details of the hair pulling, anxiety attacks, blame shifting, back biting, and self immolation going on in league and team corp offices.

No real muckraker could resist spreading that stuff around. And you know the office ladies are just bursting to tell.

Anonymous vfm November 15, 2017 7:31 AM  

"Even darker times ahead for the NFL."

The numbers/economics would agree. Leftards are converging organizations while concurrently ruining the economy on the other end with the welfare/warfare state. Burning that candle at both ends, what idiots LOL!

Blogger tuberman November 15, 2017 7:31 AM  

Does not look like most of USAs companies will back down today, a couple brought jobs back at the beginning of Trump's term, but many going for broke (literally?) now. Will there be anymore break outs to help the Dallas owner? Does any other owner seem close to stopping this?

Blogger Lovekraft November 15, 2017 7:32 AM  

Dear God, if this is real, it makes our pro sports kneeling issue look like patty-cake time:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2511841/Children-8-racist-miss-Islam-trip-Schools-threatening-letter-parents-met-outrage.html

Blogger dvdivx November 15, 2017 7:57 AM  

I think race entered it when it was the black lives matter crowd starting the protest. I don't watch football but I also don't watch TV. Watched only part of the Steelers Seahawks Superbowl as I thought seeing the hawks in the Superbowl was a once in a life event but stopped due to the terrible referees. The league will just ditch the anthem altogether and call it racist rather than stop the protests.

Blogger WynnLloyd November 15, 2017 8:03 AM  

Ha the bastards closed comments. The outrage against the invaders is growing hotter.

Blogger WynnLloyd November 15, 2017 8:04 AM  

I will pray for their success.

Blogger Desdichado November 15, 2017 8:15 AM  

Lovekraft wrote:Dear God, if this is real, it makes our pro sports kneeling issue look like patty-cake time:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2511841/Children-8-racist-miss-Islam-trip-Schools-threatening-letter-parents-met-outrage.html

Of course it's real. What the problem with it is is that the parents are outraged at being called racists. Nothing will change until good Western people everywhere reject that label of "racist" as a demeaning one, and couldn't care less if some idiotic bureaucrat or emotionally hysterical cultural Marxist calls him a racist.

Blogger Nate November 15, 2017 8:20 AM  

this has been a terrible year for the NFL. perfect storm really. You have the protest issue pissing viewers off... and on top of that you have what may be the worst rash of injuries to big name players I've seen in the last 15 years. From top QB's like Rogers to up and coming stars like Watson... at times it feels like you're watching a bunch of scabs in a strike year.

Blogger Desdichado November 15, 2017 8:36 AM  

Given the impending extension of Goodell, next year might actually BE a strike year.

Anonymous The Original Arrogant Steelers Fan November 15, 2017 8:42 AM  

The NFL must completely overhaul its product, from top to bottom, in order to even find a modicum of a chance of saving itself. Hell, the CTE issues alone might bury it.

Roger Goodell obviously isn't the man to lead that effort, in fact his solutions are actually beyond hilarious. He thinks that trimming TV commercial time and pushing "Blackout" uniforms will save the NFL.

That's right. Blackout uniforms.

Think about that for a second, BLACKOUT uniforms.

I was musing about this issues the other day... comparing the brashness in Carnegie forming the United States Steel Corporation and Onassis ingeniously realizing that the shipping crisis of the time was perhaps the most lucrative business opportunity of all history.

And now the best our captains of industry can come up with in order to save the most lucrative entertainment product every conceived is...

Blackout uniforms.

There is a deep spiritual, Christian lesson to be realized here if nothing else. There is no long-term hope for humanity making it without divine intervention - that science is truly settled.

There must be a savior around the corner because if not we are all doomed anyhow.

Blogger Arthur Isaac November 15, 2017 8:51 AM  

It is a fascinating chess game.

"I must study politics and war that my sons may have liberty to study mathematics and philosophy. My sons ought to study mathematics and philosophy, geography, natural history, naval architecture, navigation, commerce, and agriculture, in order to give their children a right to study painting, poetry, music, architecture, statuary, tapestry, and porcelain".

Blogger Duke Norfolk November 15, 2017 8:52 AM  

Desdichado wrote:What the problem with it is is that the parents are outraged at being called racists.

Yes. What we need to see instead is the parents saying, "there's no way I'm sending my kids to be indoctrinated in that devil cult's theology. Call me racist, I don't care. Islam is poison."

Or similar. Instead they're just terrified of the racist label.

But at least some of them were apparently holding their kids out of school. The others meekly sent their kids down that road.

Anonymous Ominous Cowherd November 15, 2017 8:53 AM  

VD wrote:Football is one of the greatest sports ever invented. It is a fascinating chess game.

I've never seen it that way. I've never been much of a game player, and never enjoyed watching someone else play games. I suppose that's why I don't see what you see in sports.

The niggerball/negro football league comments make sense to me: pro sports is uninteresting to me to begin with. When I'm being asked to watch Others play, it gets less interesting. When those Others make it clear they hate me because I'm White, it gets worse. Karsten is tiresome, but I'm starting to get his point despite that.

Koanic wrote:Although it would be fun to see gorilloid-hybrid offensive linesmen.

Wait - you mean they aren't gorilloid-hybrids?

Blogger Arthur Isaac November 15, 2017 8:54 AM  

I also agree with Jordan Peterson that sports and play are important for the development of boys. Taken out of the context of a youth activity and what do you expect? Professional children.

Blogger Duke Norfolk November 15, 2017 9:02 AM  

I think they're really underestimating what's going on here. They think that all these fans are just not watching out of protest, while they really want to watch the games. In reality many of them (most?) are just flat out losing interest. Once that happens they're very unlikely to ever go back.

I lost interest in sports watching in general back in about 2009-2010, I guess (I was 46 YO, for reference).

I was a pretty avid fan before then but this was when I started my red pill process and the "circuses" just didn't interest me anymore. I also watched less and less TV starting about then, ending up with zero a couple of years ago.

There's a fundamental change going on that these people have no ability to recognize. It's comical.

Blogger Brad Matthews November 15, 2017 9:06 AM  

I don't think they can recover all the lost fans even if they do everything correctly going forward. A lot are gone for good. It is past time for apologies. They have to start proactively avoiding this stuff because consumers are no longer forgiving and forgetting. But, they will probably double down. CK is citizen of the year! Not the guy who stopped the church shooting suspect.

Blogger Ron Winkleheimer November 15, 2017 9:21 AM  

Looks like Papa Johns has decided to go down the toilet with the NFL. The CEO apologized for complaining about the protests causing a drop in their sales and says the company supports the protests. Never was a Papa Johns fan, but will never, ever, ever buy one of their pizzas now.

Blogger Longtime Lurker November 15, 2017 9:26 AM  

Goodell clearly intends to keep his job. He's not going to go quietly into the good political night (like his Senator dad did in opposition to the Vietnam War).

Goodell recently hired Joe Lockhart to run interference with the media. Lockhart was President Clinton's White House shill during the Monica Lewinsky scandal.

Second, he is pitting owner against owner (Jones vs. Blank) to prevent his long overdue removal.

How much value does Goodell get to subtract from the $14-billion NFL before the owners fire him? 10 percent? 20 percent?

Anonymous Neo November 15, 2017 9:34 AM  

Funny- I'm the same age, and with me, it was around the same time. Getting cancer triggered my red-pill. Cancelled cable TV,
and never looked back.

I am absolutely indifferent to pro sports- Heinlein's statement about "commercially induced surrogate interests" come to mind.

Anonymous Sub November 15, 2017 9:37 AM  

Once again, the NFL thread brings out the virtue signalers to preen about how unimportant sports are, and oh yes, look at me, look at me, I'm a contrarian.

We get it fellas, you are way too special to care about sports, now go away.

Anonymous Red sky in morning November 15, 2017 9:49 AM  

The NFL, like Hollywood, needs to be brought down to reality. They're playing a game for the entertainment of others. The Hollywood group are repeating the writings of others for entertainment. Then because they make millions of $ they think they have value beyond entertainment. Bring them down to size.

Anonymous BBGKB November 15, 2017 9:53 AM  

Still no Boycott the NFL shirts from cryptofashion.

but I’ve suspected this whole taking a knee thing was preplanned and organized as a sort of anti National psyop, but Hillary was supposed to win the election to help with it. She would have come out in favor of it

Lets hope the Pizzagate & tranny bathroom people have not changed their plans.

Who else could have foreseen badmouthing the NFL was such a winning issue?

Paul Kersey wrote a book "Opiate of America" hoping someone would bring it down.

Anonymous Mountain Rivera November 15, 2017 9:56 AM  

Sadly, it's also a physiologically untenable meat grinder- the TBI science coming out now will eventually end it in its current form. ( In reality, it always has been, we've just turned a blind eye to it.) Will it be watchable when they go to flag football rules? Doubtful. But all the padding in the world doesn't change the axonal shear force of a full- speed tackle- there's a reason NFL is referred to as "Not For Long." (Boxing has the same issues, but boxers are relatively few in number- there are millions of parents who are looking at the data and saying, "No thanks. We'll play lacrosse."

As for the "fascinating chess game" aspect, go watch a cricket match, if you want to be an armchair Musashi.

Anonymous Da Bears November 15, 2017 10:03 AM  

No, we care about sports, but realized the idiotic obsession with grown men playing a children's game, while other grown men obsess about them, was a bit much.

If you like it so much, shut up and go play it.

Anonymous Looking Glass November 15, 2017 10:05 AM  

Going to call it now: the post-season "narrative" will be due to bad QB play and a need for better transition into the NFL.

Peyton is retired; Eli is about to; Rodgers is down for the year; the good, new guys aren't household names yet; half the league is using backups; Tony Romo is in a booth; and Jay Culter still has a job. But at least Tom Brady is still awesome.

The NFL is between generations of QBs, not helped by the fact that Rodgers seems like the only recent future Hall of Fame member drafted, and that was in 2005. Russel Wilson has about the next one with a solid media presence, but there's a pretty dang big valley between the QB generations.

NFL went through this before Peyton took over the league in the early 2000s, but still a lot of big names from the previous generation playing well. The long string of QB "busts" between about 2007 and 2014 at the top of the draft really hasn't helped matters.

Though I do have to ask: is it possible the coaching has just gotten worse? They've made the game incredibly complex over the past 20 years through the "counter the counter" approach, and we're now at the point where Belichik's approach of keeping it simple for the players is actually the only way to go?

Blogger Koanic November 15, 2017 10:22 AM  

> Wait - you mean they aren't gorilloid-hybrids?

As Willy Wonka once said in the Chocolate Factory, "If some is good, more is better!" We are already funding African breeding programs via welfare; might as well make something with a military application beyond minefield clearing!

Anonymous A Deplorable Paradigm Is More Than Twenty Cents November 15, 2017 10:23 AM  

The NFL is between generations of QBs,

Possibly between generations of fans, too. Demographics of ticketholders / cable viewers matter. How many millennials / GenZ are interested vs. Boomertards / Xr's?

Blogger Thucydides November 15, 2017 10:28 AM  

Interesting to see how they continue to double down despite the clear evidence of declining viewership and loss of revenues. Are they really so secure that they can feed off their accumulated assets and "ride out the storm"?

To my mind, this only works if they are unleveraged, but since the entire structure is built on a mountain of debt (even if some of them are not personally leveraged), the implosion of cash flow should start affecting the all important debt repayment flow. Somewhere farther down the chain, highly leveraged people or business are becoming unable to service their debts. When they got down into bankruptcy, the foundations will begin to shift under the entire sports/entertainment/media edifice (sort of like pulling sticks from a Jenga stack).

I suspect the people highest up the chain, like owners, Hollywood producers and network CEO's actually have sufficient liquid assets to ride out the storm, and this is what influences their thinking. What seems to have escaped them is that millions of the people in the ecosystem supporting them *do not* have millions of dollars in cash in the bank, real estate holdings or intellectual property worth billions, so even small shifts can have catastrophic effects.

It has taken me a long time to see how economics can be melded with 4GW, but this blog has been particularly instructive in this regard, so many thanks to Vox and the rest of this merry crew of commenters, who have refined my thinking. Attacking the networks may actually be far simpler and easier than I had ever imagined, and the crash, when it comes, will be spectacular.

Blogger James Dixon November 15, 2017 10:30 AM  

> Though I do have to ask: is it possible the coaching has just gotten worse?

Eh, it's possible. How long has the Rooney Rule been in effect?

Blogger LonestarWhacko November 15, 2017 10:33 AM  

Rush made an interesting observation the other day....he put forth the postulation that the NFL is actually engaged in a advertising campaign to attract a younger more socially active audience. That the decision has been made to forget the older fans in search of the new, younger ones. He didn't say he had proof, but that it was an explanation for what's happening.

Blogger James Dixon November 15, 2017 10:35 AM  

Wait a minute. Even Nate is admitting that there just might be a problem????

Blogger Nate November 15, 2017 10:43 AM  

"Wait a minute. Even Nate is admitting that there just might be a problem????"

What I've said was... we needed more time to evaluate the effects of the protests. We've had more time. Its clear they are having an effect on ratings.

I still maintain they are not the only factor. But they are clearly a big factor.

Anonymous Jack Amok November 15, 2017 10:45 AM  

The NFL was in for a world of hurt by the early '20's anyway, but the kneelers just strapped a rocket onto the decline.

The concussion problem means fewer kids are playing football, meaning fewer decent athletes to pick from. Youth football participation fell off a cliff six or seven years ago. Draft classes are going to crater talent-wise in the next few years.

College football became it's own thing, and is now doing a poor job as a development league for the NFL. You see it at QB, but the real problem is college doesn't produce anywhere near enough competent Offensive Lineman. O-Line play across the league is dismal (further worsening the QB situation too).

Officiating has become a clown show, and games are being decided by random chance of who benefited the most from the blown calls. What's supposed to be an action show is turning into a courtroom drama full of yellow flags (with real courtroom drama from player suspensions added in too).

Finally, the big looming disaster, is TV. The last round of contracts brought in a ton of dough because the networks thought live sports was the best way to halt cord cutting and they bid through the roof for broadcast rights. It didn't put a dent in cord cutting. Those contracts are up for renewal soon, and they won't be anything close to the previous deals.

Then the CBA come up, and there'll almost certainly be a strike.

Football's a great game, but the NFL is doomed.

Blogger Nate November 15, 2017 10:45 AM  

"No, we care about sports, but realized the idiotic obsession with grown men playing a children's game, while other grown men obsess about them, was a bit much."

Hey sugartits. Football was never a children's game. It was a sport conceptualized for adult men from the very beginning to toughen up college aged men and make them ready for war.

Anonymous Looking Glass November 15, 2017 10:55 AM  

@77 Nate

People rarely understand the unit-level coordination effect that Football has on Men in American society.

Anonymous JAG November 15, 2017 10:55 AM  

https://twitter.com/Sh8dyGr8dy/status/930424169849901056

Blogger LonestarWhacko November 15, 2017 10:58 AM  

Throw in falling testosterone levels....hmmmmm....manginas ain't into football? Say it ain't so.

Blogger James Dixon November 15, 2017 10:59 AM  

> I still maintain they are not the only factor. But they are clearly a big factor.

Agreed. There are a lot of reasons the NFL is in decline. The protests are merely the final straw for many people.

Anonymous Patton November 15, 2017 11:01 AM  

As a veteran, I can assure you- Kaepernick isn't ready for war.

Blogger OGRE November 15, 2017 11:08 AM  

The NFL has been trash since the free agent bullshit took shape in the 90s and the era of the franchise player ended. Much of the strategic element at the professional level is gone as the passing game took prominence. Whens the last time we've seen a quick kick or a punter purposefully attempt a coffin corner? Even the run game has become little more than dives and draws; traps and scissors and power sweeps and isos are rarely seen in the new game of shotgun/pistol/single back set.

I find watching old games form the 70s to be far more entertaining than any modern NFL games. And even the local high school games have more excitement.

Couple this with the present day in-your-face hip-hop attitude and the loss of all sense of tradition and real pageantry at the expense of spectacle and sportscenter highlights...the NFL is lost and probably unrecoverable at this point.

Blogger Nate November 15, 2017 11:12 AM  

"As a veteran, I can assure you- Kaepernick isn't ready for war."

People today wouldn't even recognize the original game. In the original game you didn't tackle the guy with the ball. You had to stop him. Meaning he could crawl... roll... anything he could do to move the ball forward he could do. And he wasn't stopped until he said the word "down".

So basically you had to beat him into submission on every play.

Blogger Andy in San Diego and Elsewhere November 15, 2017 11:13 AM  

I wonder if part of the decline in the NFL's ratings/butts-in-seats is part of a bigger decline across all sports? MLB seems to be down (but the World Series was gang-busters), the NHL has a LOT of empty seats as well.

Blogger Nate November 15, 2017 11:14 AM  

the game was violent beyond all modern imagination. Players died on the field all the time.

Blogger John M November 15, 2017 11:16 AM  

James Dixon wrote:> I still maintain they are not the only factor. But they are clearly a big factor.

Agreed. There are a lot of reasons the NFL is in decline. The protests are merely the final straw for many people.


Professional sports as a whole is in a decline....... people are taking for granted the place that sports has in our society. We are heading towards the era where real sports can't compete with iphones and Twitch.tv ....... people nowadays just don't want to lift up their butts and run around on a field.

Anonymous Patton November 15, 2017 11:27 AM  

Nate- you-re absolutely right. And boxing matches went 50 rounds. And industrial accidents and fatalities were a daily event.

As we've gotten richer, we've gotten softer. So, we like proxy violence. That's always been so.

Thus, The NFL's current motto should be,
"Are You Not Entertained"?

As for Vox's comment regarding strategy- that may be true, but nobody watches "Monday Night Chess League".

The game is another proxy violence sport. Which is fine.

They failed to realize their place. And now they're suffering for it.

Blogger SemiSpook37 November 15, 2017 11:40 AM  

What most folks seem to miss is that Kapaernick was just sitting in street clothes on the sideline at the start of the 2016 preseason. It wasn’t until some crack sports journalist (read: moron) asked him why he was sitting that things started to go downhill. Part of why he went the way he did was due to the fact tha HE HAD NO EXPLANATION TO BEGIN WITH. He had just started seeing his Muslim SJW hussy, so naturally she’s likely the source of the whole injustice BS.

Just proves the theory that men will do anything for the V. MPAI clearly applies here.

As for other crap, the Ginger Hammer is proving Al Davis right just over 50 years after the merger occurred. You know you’ve screwed up if you’re making Al Davis, of all people, look like he knew what he was talking about. I mean, I’m siding with Jerruh on the contract thing, and I HATE Jerruh and the Cowgirls!

Blogger Christopher B November 15, 2017 11:46 AM  

Thanks for the clarification. Any reporting on this is so slanted it's hard to uncover what's going on.

Blogger Ron Winkleheimer November 15, 2017 11:46 AM  

the game was violent beyond all modern imagination. Players died on the field all the time.

Teddy Roosevelt stepped in and reformed the game, otherwise it was going to be banned.

https://www.history.com/news/how-teddy-roosevelt-saved-football

Blogger Christopher B November 15, 2017 11:55 AM  

My off-the-cuff opinion is that the rise of fantasy leagues killed or is killing football as an event, at least until the playoffs start. The emphasis is all on individual player stats, not teams, which means nobody really cares about the game outcome any more.

Blogger Nate November 15, 2017 12:58 PM  

"And industrial accidents and fatalities were a daily event."

they still are. Lots of people just don't know it because they are insulated from those who work in industry.

Anonymous AzDesertRat November 15, 2017 1:05 PM  

Andy in San Diego and Elsewhere wrote:I wonder if part of the decline in the NFL's ratings/butts-in-seats is part of a bigger decline across all sports? MLB seems to be down (but the World Series was gang-busters), the NHL has a LOT of empty seats as well.

The NHL is going to have a reckoning because they over expanded the league. 31 teams total, and 9 of them are located in geographic areas where it is a "big deal" (if not downright historic) if winter temps get below freezing... They need to scale back to somewhere between 20 and 24 teams in northern latitudes and be happy with that solid and steady fan base.
The Arizona Coyotes have been in Phoenix for 20 years now, and still haven't managed to build a solid fan base. When teams like Chicago, Detroit, the New York's, Pittsburgh, and any Canadian team (during the winter months) are in town the Coyotes are playing an away game inside their own arena.

Anonymous Crew November 15, 2017 1:11 PM  

The NFL is going to be just fine. All professional sports have their highs and lows. The number of injuries to high profile players is a major reason for the drop off in TV ratings, but one must also take into account how many men and women watch pro football on their devices or go to someone's home or go out to a bar. The protests are are a sidebar, not the main attraction. Again, don't watch if you prefer.

Anonymous Ominous Cowherd November 15, 2017 1:22 PM  

Looking Glass wrote:@77 Nate

People rarely understand the unit-level coordination effect that Football has on Men in American society.


I guess that puts me in the majority, then, since I have no idea what you're talking about. Can you give a brief explanation?

Blogger Arthur Isaac November 15, 2017 1:23 PM  

The NFL is going to be just fine.

I didn't know Joe Lockhart read here...

Blogger Nate November 15, 2017 1:30 PM  

'I guess that puts me in the majority, then, since I have no idea what you're talking about. Can you give a brief explanation?'

on of the bigger problems coaches face in team sports is getting players to do their job... and not everyone else's job. Developing the trust in your cohort where you do your own job and trust everyone else will do their job to is vital.

its a lesson that is broadly applicable in every industry.. and in warfare.

Anonymous patrick kelly November 15, 2017 2:52 PM  

I like football and enjoy watching games. That's why I watch them.
Before all the recent kneeling drama I rarely saw or heard what goes on during the NA anyway. I was busy cooking or pouring something to consume while I relaxed and enjoyed the game.

I'm painfully aware of all the sideline distractions, but so far they have not diminished my enjoyment of the game.

Blogger James Dixon November 15, 2017 3:35 PM  

> they still are. Lots of people just don't know it because they are insulated from those who work in industry.

14 fatalities in coal mining this alone, and the year;s not done.

Blogger Nate November 15, 2017 3:53 PM  

"I'm painfully aware of all the sideline distractions, but so far they have not diminished my enjoyment of the game."

its really only a problem if you expect the players to be something other than idiots.

I don't. So when they act like idiots.. I'm not surprised... and I have no trouble not caring.

Blogger weka November 15, 2017 4:26 PM  

Cricket, now that's a game for summer. For winter, Rugby. Ditch the padding and limit substitutions and the NFL will become rugby league with forward passes.

Which is optimised for Tongans

Blogger weka November 15, 2017 4:26 PM  

Cricket, now that's a game for summer. For winter, Rugby. Ditch the padding and limit substitutions and the NFL will become rugby league with forward passes.

Which is optimised for Tongans

Anonymous Mr. Rational November 15, 2017 4:39 PM  

Thucydides wrote:millions of the people in the ecosystem supporting them *do not* have millions of dollars in cash in the bank, real estate holdings or intellectual property worth billions, so even small shifts can have catastrophic effects.
That is an excellent point.  How many people will keep going to football games if e.g. the concessionaires have gone broke and shut down?  Will the owners pay them to stay?  That could get expensive fast.

Anonymous Ham Solo November 15, 2017 5:04 PM  

I am switching to being a fan of Rugby, Cricket, Bowls, Hockey and Curling, where everyone is welcome regardless of their skin, instead of these SJW black-only sports.

Anonymous WaterBoy November 15, 2017 5:43 PM  

Ham Solo @105: "instead of these SJW black-only sports"

Tom Brady went full-Dolezal?!?

You never go full-Dolezal!

Blogger Bob Loblaw November 15, 2017 7:55 PM  

No wonder the behavior of the owners and the league office is getting increasingly strange.

If by "strange" you mean "suicidal". I read an article earlier today which said the solution to the ratings slide the owners were contemplating is... to force Jerry Jones to sell the Cowboys. I can only imagine this is the sort of genius that manifests itself when people with inherited money buy teams as a vanity project.

Anonymous Mr. Rational November 15, 2017 8:27 PM  

@105 If you're watching that stuff you are STILL paying for cable, STILL paying for ESPN and STILL feeding the coffers of Negroes Bouncing Around and the Negro Felon League.

Cut cable and get a library card.

Blogger James Dixon November 15, 2017 8:42 PM  

> I don't. So when they act like idiots.. I'm not surprised... and I have no trouble not caring.

I don't care about the players. But I expect better of the owners and the commissioner. Not that it matters, I can't watch the games anyway.

Anonymous Jack Amok November 15, 2017 11:50 PM  

The NFL is going to be just fine.

The NFL's problems aren't limited to sideline distractions. They have a fundamental money problem - the lucrative broadcast TV contracts are not going to be renewed at anything close to the current ones. The broadcasters are losing money hand over fist with those deals. Ad revenue is in freefall (even before the kneelers). The game itself could be salvaged, but the league, the teams, and the players are going to take a massive financial haircut, and may be structured badly enough not to be able to weather it.

on of the bigger problems coaches face in team sports is getting players to do their job... and not everyone else's job. Developing the trust in your cohort where you do your own job and trust everyone else will do their job to is vital.

its a lesson that is broadly applicable in every industry...


I'm in the middle of dealing with that problem right damn now Nate. The hell of it is, the best people are the ones who will cause the most chaos without that teamwork, because they see the problems, see they're getting taken care of, and have the drive and give-a-damn to want to help...

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