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Wednesday, April 11, 2018

Why there won't be war

It seems people haven't learned much from Trump's largely bloodless accomplishments in North Korea. But the main reason I doubt there will be any real war - or rather, any more real war - in Syria is that the US-Israeli proxies, which is the polite way of saying ISIS, have already been defeated.
Trump will have difficulty not doing something impressive after denouncing “Animal Assad” and promising that the Syrian leader would “pay a price” for the gas attack. Trump has also denounced President Barak Obama for his timidity in his use of US military strength against President Bashar al-Assad, so the US may do something spectacular.

What is more doubtful is whether or not US air strikes will have much impact in the long term. In many respects, the political situation on the ground in Syria has gelled as Assad asserts his control over most of populated Syria. The last rebels are being evacuated from Eastern Ghouta on the outskirts of Damascus. Syrian troops and tanks are reported to be massing to overrun an Isis held stronghold in the south of the capital.

Syria is being divided into three zones of unequal size: Assad backed by Russia and Iran in much of the country; Sunni Arab factions backed by Turkey in Idlib, newly captured Afrin and territory north of Aleppo; and in the north and east, a large triangle of land east of the Euphrates held by the Kurds supported by 2,000 US troops able to call in massive air power. Even heavy US air strikes on a one-off basis will not significantly change this balance of power.
There may well be a few missiles lobbed as well as an air strike or ten. But that is nothing serious. And remember, all Trump has promised is missiles, which by Middle East standards is merely sabre-rattling 103.

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66 Comments:

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother April 11, 2018 8:05 PM  

It might even be considered insulting not to drop a few bombs in tgr middle east .

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother April 11, 2018 8:07 PM  

Speaking of dropping bombs...

https://youtu.be/N5XP9TFVa18

Blogger Johnny April 11, 2018 8:17 PM  

That is what I have been thinking. A fireworks display done with the hope the Russians don't respond so we can just go away.

Blogger Arthur Isaac April 11, 2018 8:20 PM  

Putin stated that they will strike back at launch platforms (which is more sabre rattling). Why participate in Deep State kabuki theater? Who exactly is this supposed to be distracting? Trump isn't going to the mattresses he's playing "Wag the Dog". By December we'll be able to stick a fork in him.

Blogger Aaron Swenson April 11, 2018 8:28 PM  

He was against action in Syria years before he became pResident. There are many tweets that show this. All of a sudden, he denounced Obama for his INaction? I don't buy it.

Blogger VD April 11, 2018 8:38 PM  

By December we'll be able to stick a fork in him.

And he'll never get more than 30 percent of the Republican primary votes. Come on. Have you learned nothing from the last two years?

Blogger Johnny April 11, 2018 8:39 PM  

I suppose if we want to keep down the risk of a ship getting hit, we could fire off some cruise missiles from way offshore. I think the latest version cost a million each, more or less. If I remember correctly Clinton took out a terrorist camp with cruise missiles. Visually the place looked like some kind of mud and thatch walls with fibrous plant matter used as a roof. I guess they couldn't afford used tin. And I think by chance event it wasn't occupied at the time of the attack.

Nothing all that new. In Vietnam we used jet airplanes to take out bridges that were a log that spanned the tiny "river." The Vietcong would chop down another tree and we would do another "surgical strike."

The pilots were obliged to follow a flight plan that was actually dictated in Washington. They had them coming in at the same altitude so much that the Cong took out one of our planes with a cable stretched across a valley; with, of course, another log bridge that needed taking out.

The American way of war.

Blogger Nell Fenwick April 11, 2018 8:47 PM  

Trump need to stay out of Syria. Israelis need to take care of their own turf.

Blogger VFM #7634 April 11, 2018 8:56 PM  

And remember, all Trump has promised is missiles, which by Middle East standards is merely sabre-rattling 103.

And it wasn't even necessarily our own missiles.

Blogger tuberman April 11, 2018 9:10 PM  

This is likely some kind of "Strategic Distraction," so what's going on on the other side of the world? Shhh!

Russia's ships have already turned back away. Trump has already said this is just a minor delay from leaving Syria.

Blogger Jon Mollison April 11, 2018 9:10 PM  

Other than 'muh Israel' I have yet to see a valid reason for even one pair of boots on the ground in Syria, but I'm big enough to admit my knowledge is full of holes here...

So what's the deal with that "a large triangle of land east of the Euphrates held by the Kurds supported by 2,000 US troops able to call in massive air power"? A bargaining chip that he can give to Putin to secure concessions elsewhere? A staging ground to ensure that the Russkies live up to whatever bargain gets struck? Or just a desire not to be the latest ally to stab the Kurds in back?

Blogger tuberman April 11, 2018 9:17 PM  

7. Johnny

And, the Russian MIGs were better jets (they really were). The Air
Force and Navy people who headed the jet buying programs were already corrupt traitors. And, the 3 letter agencies were already moving drugs and worse. Yep, we know.

Blogger Ken Prescott April 11, 2018 9:38 PM  

What needs to happen is that Assad needs to stop Colonel Yusuf al-Smucatelli from getting hit over the head by the Good Idea Fairy.

Using nerve gas is going to get anyone even remotely knowledgeable about chemical warfare to go to red alert.

Blogger Crew April 11, 2018 9:39 PM  

If we really destroy Syria, the next country we will be asked to destroy is Hungary, because Muh Holocaust!

Blogger Ken Prescott April 11, 2018 9:42 PM  

"And, the Russian MIGs were better jets (they really were)."

No, they weren't.

The Vietnamese had better situational awareness over North Vietnam because we didn't attack GCI sites. (Why? Because we were worried about killing Russians. Funny, they didn't worry about killing Americans.)

Once we had better situational awareness with various platforms such as the Warning Star and various SIGINT sources, things shifted drastically in America's favor.

Blogger John Best April 11, 2018 9:43 PM  

Thank you for you cool and strategic head in these situations. I don't tend to get overexcited about events, the trend is what matters, the Syrian/Russia stuff is a distraction.

Blogger Crew April 11, 2018 9:45 PM  

"And, the Russian MIGs were better jets (they really were)."

No, they weren't.


I tend to agree. Sure, the Mig 17 was a better jet than the Sabre (and a Korean War vintage), but by the time the Mig 19 and Mig 21 came around US jets in Vietnam were better.

However, the Viets also had SAMs which were pretty good as well,

Blogger rondolf April 11, 2018 9:53 PM  

I know Pres Trump can come off as a bit of a clown, but I believe he is a fundamentally serious man. I don't think he is going to get in a twitter war if he actually believes real war is imminent. So I wasn't really that worried. Of course the problem is he is not as in control of the armed forces as I would like. But so far the louder he is the more relaxed I am. Plus he likes misdirection, which too many people forget.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother April 11, 2018 9:57 PM  

Kansas City Shuffle
Kansas City Shuffle
Kansas City Shuffle

Just remember those three words...

Blogger Johnny April 11, 2018 10:08 PM  

And, the Russian MIGs were better jets (they really were).

In WWII the Russians couldn't meet German quality. They got around it with numerous durable aircraft that flew from bases very close to the front. Little short missions so they didn't get shot down, plus an air base heavily equipped with antiaircraft guns. A lot of their planes were intended to shoot at ground targets.

In the Vietnam era I think they had that in mind. Guessing a little, I think the Migs were all low cost fuel hogs, good performance but not much range. Good I suppose if their abilities suited the mission.

I can not recall the name of the book, but John Boyd's role in developing the F16 is a real study in what is wrong with military procurements. For their own reasons both sides want the plane to cost more and feature creep is the result. Overly big and heavy in fighters.

Blogger Brick Hardslab April 11, 2018 10:30 PM  

The only people we arm in Syria is ISIS and AQ. If you're allied with those two you know you should just back away and clear out.

After the Turkomen (sp?) shot down the Russians I thought we'd messed it up but Putin kept his head.

Blogger Andrew April 11, 2018 10:31 PM  

The Vietnamese had better situational awareness over North Vietnam because we didn't attack GCI sites. (Why? Because we were worried about killing Russians. Funny, they didn't worry about killing Americans.)

Once we had better situational awareness with various platforms such as the Warning Star and various SIGINT sources, things shifted drastically in America's favor.


I thought it was because our pilots had grown lazy with their dogfighting skills, hence the formation of Top Gun School in Miramar.

Blogger Ken Prescott April 11, 2018 10:37 PM  

"I thought it was because our pilots had grown lazy with their dogfighting skills, hence the formation of Top Gun School in Miramar."

You really think a bunch of fighter pilots are going to admit that it was a bunch of scope dopes in a converted airliner that shifted the correlation of forces, and not their own sheer awesomeness?

Getting into a dogfight is a sign that a fighter pilot screwed up. Something like 80% of all shootdowns are of non-maneuvering targets that had no idea the other guy was even there. If they evade the first attack, the smart move is to attempt to disengage and find another opportunity, not to see how well you can do BFM.

Blogger Andrew April 11, 2018 10:38 PM  

You really think a bunch of fighter pilots are going to admit that it was a bunch of scope dopes in a converted airliner that shifted the correlation of forces, and not their own sheer awesomeness?

Joke. I was quoting Top Gun.

Blogger Ken Prescott April 11, 2018 10:40 PM  

Joke. I was quoting Top Gun.

I know. But fighter pilots ain't the humblest of God's creatures (c8

Blogger Lamarck Leland April 11, 2018 10:46 PM  

During the election I argued, repeatedly, with friends and family that Trump was the anti-war candidate.

Now everyone I meet just says "I told you!" "Trump is crazy!" "Hillary wouldn't start a war".

I want to trust Trump.

Blogger Wynn Lloyd April 11, 2018 11:08 PM  

No they are not. The pilot of the C-130 at Benning came into the parachute bay with long hair, drinking a Pepsi.
I knew then and there that I had screwed up and joined the wrong service.

Blogger Frank Brady April 11, 2018 11:09 PM  

For the true believers, aren't you really saying we should trust Trump because his words mean nothing? Really?

Blogger Lazarus April 11, 2018 11:10 PM  

I want to trust Trump.

Trust the Plan.
Q


Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth.
Tyson

Blogger OneWingedShark April 11, 2018 11:22 PM  

Anno Ruse wrote:Oh, so it's "no war" now?
Well, there should be a war -- or at least it would be called a war -- the one that would result from (a) enforcing border security, and (b) forcefully ejecting/eliminating the foreign invaders already within our midst.

I mean just imagine the sheer outrage and political turmoil if the troops stationed on the border were given both orders to secure the borders and authorization to use lethal force to do so -- imagine how the globalists would try to strike that down via the judiciary, or impeachment, despite being literally mandated by Article 4, Section 4 of the Constitution.

Now, imagine the counter-punch: trying to prevent border-security and elimination of the invaders is literally giving aid and comfort to the enemies of the States -- that is Treason. (And guess which crimes that Congressmen are NOT protected from arrest over?)

Blogger Crew April 11, 2018 11:25 PM  

Six reasons for Trump to go to war in Syria?

https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-11/6-simple-reasons-why-trump-going-war-syria

Blogger Wynn Lloyd April 11, 2018 11:26 PM  

What is the major threat Syria poses to Israel? Israel has a much stronger army and Air Force. Wouldn't a more orderly neighbor be preferable? Do the Israelis want to steal Syrian land? Do they have a good reason (from the neocon point of view) to be so bellicose towards Assad?
That's never been explained by a the MSM, of course, which is curious.

Blogger Crew April 11, 2018 11:36 PM  

@Wynn Lloyd: Russia and Iran allegedly want to build a military road from Iran to the Mediterranean.

I don't think the Israelis don't want that to happen for obvious reasons.

There is also the oil/gas pipeline from Bahrain to Europe through Syria that some people want.

Blogger Wynn Lloyd April 11, 2018 11:44 PM  

Makes sense. Thanks.

Blogger lazlo azavaar April 11, 2018 11:48 PM  

35. Whom Gods destroy, they first make mad.

Blogger Brick Hardslab April 11, 2018 11:51 PM  

@34 Winn,

Do the Israelis want to steal Syrian land?
Well, they've got the Golan heights, so yes. However, they could house all the Syrian refugees there and none would need to come to the west. Think of the good they could do

Blogger Frank Brady April 12, 2018 12:14 AM  

Trump is busted. Tyler Durden and Alex Christoforou nail it. Thanks Crew for the link at 33.0 (See https://www.zerohedge.com/news/2018-04-11/6-simple-reasons-why-trump-going-war-syria

Blogger Snidely Whiplash April 12, 2018 12:32 AM  

Frank Brady wrote:Trump is busted. Tyler Durden and Alex Christoforou nail it.
Not being gullible isn't your strong suit, is it? Stay out of penny stocks.

Blogger Frank Brady April 12, 2018 1:01 AM  

Actually, "Snidely", not being gullible IS my strong suit. Continuing to trust someone when you believe and admit that his words mean nothing is the literal definition of gullibility.

Blogger Mr. Bee April 12, 2018 1:41 AM  

Trump adopts some of the Clinton playbook: when you're in trouble domestically, bomb something.

Blogger Arthur Isaac April 12, 2018 2:36 AM  

And he'll never get more than 30 percent of the Republican primary votes. Come on. Have you learned nothing from the last two years?

I've learned that a candidate can run as a professional wrestler and win on a populist/nationalist message. I think I've learned that the man is in actual fact mercurial and that it isn't an act. I've laid down my marker and as much as I want to believe it I think the "Storm" is B.S. We'll find out in November.

Blogger Wynn Lloyd April 12, 2018 2:37 AM  

Didn't realize the Golan Heights were in Syria. Thanks.
Wouldn't it be nice if housing them there was a condition of receiving our aid.

Blogger Arthur Isaac April 12, 2018 3:03 AM  

If I was leaning towards "Storm" I would guess that Trump is using actions in Syria to garner support from Mossad and the Saudis to use against the Deep State and China (Petro-yuan) in some fashion. The problem I see with that is just how much he will be putting our forces in alignment with Theresa May (of all people). I thought UK intelligence was lined up with the Russian "problem". I don't think it passes the smell test in any way I can formulate it.

Blogger Sensei April 12, 2018 4:15 AM  

I've learned that a candidate can run as a professional wrestler and win on a populist/nationalist message. I think I've learned that the man is in actual fact mercurial and that it isn't an act.

He's mercurial enough to do things that aren't smart, smart enough to know that he can use appearing to be mercurial to his advantage, and narcissistic enough that he often can't tell which is which.

And if he can't, it's even tougher for the peanut gallery to second guess him. I submit that's actually about as much as one could expect from any non-hypothetical human being that makes it all the way to the Cherry Blossom Throne. Also the man isn't young, and is surrounded by would-be-super-alphas and hardened perennial beltway survivors who will help as long as it's expedient then attack if they smell blood.

I am no longer sure what "getting everything we hope for" looks like for a rational and intelligent person, but Trump's victory going far to expose the uselessness of conservatism and put some of the final nails in its coffin is by no means a small accomplishment.

Blogger Dirk Manly April 12, 2018 4:25 AM  

@11

"Or just a desire not to be the latest ally to stab the Kurds in back? "

Kurdish backstabbing goes both ways.

Kratman has dozens of incidents of when the Kurds near the Turkish border would fire on U.S. troops,* hoping that they would return fire and hit Turkish border positions.

That sort of behavior is even WORSE than the Arabs. With friends like that, who needs enemies?
Translation -- the Kurds are too undisciplined for anyone to want to help them carve out and secure their own little piece of land for themselves.

* U.S. troops who were there to protect the Kurds from both the Arabs and the Turks.

Blogger Dirk Manly April 12, 2018 4:28 AM  

@13

1. Chlorine isn't nerve gas.
2. This was another case of the rebels gassing their own people, deliberately, so as to point fingers at Assad.

Arabs think absolutely NOTHING of committing war crimes against their own people if they think it can be used as a rhetorical bludgeon on the international scene against their enemy.

Blogger Dirk Manly April 12, 2018 4:36 AM  

@20

Just like the short-range Spitfire of WW2, the early MiGs were intended to be interceptors.

Interceptors don't fly long-range escort missions. They scramble, get to altitude, engage the bogeys, and return to base. Typically all in less than an hour or two.

What you want in an interceptor is a plane with a really good undercarriage, that can take off and land from just about any old field, so that they can be positioned exactly where you want them to be to optimize your interception line.

Blogger Dirk Manly April 12, 2018 4:38 AM  

"After the Turkomen (sp?) shot down the Russians I thought we'd messed it up but Putin kept his head. "

Russians are a nation of chess players.
A fighter is just a pawn.
NO chess player spazzes out over a pawn.

Blogger Dirk Manly April 12, 2018 4:47 AM  

@27

"During the election I argued, repeatedly, with friends and family that Trump was the anti-war candidate.

Now everyone I meet just says "I told you!" "Trump is crazy!" "Hillary wouldn't start a war"."



Just remind them that Hillary was advocating putting American boots on the ground in Syria to conduct direct combat with Russians on the ground in Syria.

All over what has for over 100 years, been the Russian Navy's most reliable warm water port. Threatening their one reliable warm water port is not merely stupid, it's suicidal.

Blogger Dirk Manly April 12, 2018 4:58 AM  

@42

"Continuing to trust someone when you believe and admit that his words mean nothing is the literal definition of gullibility."


I trust a man who is smart enough to realize that his ENEMIES are dumb enough to believe his words, even after telling them for 2 years that he wants to do the exact opposite of what he's telling them right now.

Actions speak louder than words.

Trump is playing (and humiliating) the Washington establishment the same way they have done to us for the last 100 years.

Do you have some sort of problem with that?

Blogger tuberman April 12, 2018 5:22 AM  

Dirk Manly wrote:"After the Turkomen (sp?) shot down the Russians I thought we'd messed it up but Putin kept his head. "

Russians are a nation of chess players.

A fighter is just a pawn.

NO chess player spazzes out over a pawn.
d

It's most fun sacrificing pawns (gambits) when the opponent has two Ph.Ds, or is a Federal Judge, or has a bow tie, or has iron-on elbow pads on his tweed jacket.

Blogger Lovekraft April 12, 2018 6:08 AM  

Only into Trump's second year of eight, he's been faced with non-stop negative media coverage/lies, Ryanesque obstruction etc, cleaning up NoBordersBarack's messes and his popularity is still around 50%.

Add in a historic grassroots movement on the alt-right to significantly damage the SJWs/Marxists/globalists during the run-up to the 2016 election.

And yet here we have the 'oh noes!' spouting their despair.

You never really were on the alt-right. The battles will continue and there are thousands of Hogg wannabes waiting their turn. Buck up!

Blogger Peter Gent April 12, 2018 6:15 AM  

lazlo azavaar wrote:35. Whom Gods destroy, they first make mad.
A good description of how Satan treats his "friends" who in essence are less than pawns and are sometimes sacrificed for the shear pleasure of watching them be destroyed.

Blogger AdognamedOp April 12, 2018 6:20 AM  

Its all about the campaign. The left only live for the political. They dont have to get Trump on collusion or some other scandal when they can simply run against the guy who's been under investigation for his whole term. They can blame dead syrian kids on him or anything else a complient media runs with. THIS is the endgame.

Blogger Uncle John's Band April 12, 2018 7:11 AM  

Note what has actually happened in Syria since Trump tweeted Armageddon.

By now the pattern of making a ton of noise then watching as the "trap" vanishes with the media cycle ought to be clear.

Blogger Matt Sellitto April 12, 2018 7:35 AM  

"Never said when an attack on Syria would take place. Could be very soon or not so soon at all! In any event, the United States, under my Administration, has done a great job of ridding the region of ISIS. Where is our “Thank you America?”" - DJT

Lol, we're not attacking shit, if we do it will be a few missles like last time.

Always trust the God Emperor.

Blogger James Dixon April 12, 2018 8:46 AM  

> In any event, the United States, under my Administration, has done a great job of ridding the region of ISIS.

And Trump knows the "resistance" in Syria is ISIS. He has no desire to assist them in any way.

Yeah, this is going to be some token show of force. Let's just hope they keep it low key enough not to antagonize Russia too much. But Vlad knows how the game is played. He won't lose his head.

Blogger Robert Browning April 12, 2018 8:51 AM  

It could be a Trump plan to fire Mueller. If it turns out the Syrian gas attack was fake news. Trump can claim his enemies brought us to the brink of nuclear war on a lie.

Blogger Ken Prescott April 12, 2018 9:25 AM  

@46

"1. Chlorine isn't nerve gas."

True. Sarin, however, is, and the symptoms are consistent with a mix of chlorine and sarin, not with chlorine alone.

Nerve agents freak out the NBC-knowledgeable as it is. The notion of nerve agents in the hands of people in a culture as screwed up as the lands of Araby, with their lackadaisical attitude towards minor things like stockpile security, is terrifying.

Bottom line: drop nerve agent in a modern city, it will get inside modern buildings. The only thing to do after that is to abandon the contaminated building in place--because the interior of a modern building is just about the perfect environment for a "non-persistent" nerve agent to be very persistent, and for a persistent agent like VX to essentially last forever. You can't decontaminate a building sufficiently to make it safely usable. (Hell, you can't decon a fighter cockpit, and that's a lot smaller and a lot less environmentally controlled.) There will be hot spots of contamination, and you will regularly find them by people getting dosed.

"2. This was another case of the rebels gassing their own people, deliberately, so as to point fingers at Assad."

Or Colonel Yusuf al-Smucatelli got smacked over the head by the Good Idea Fairy. Or Assad wanted this to be for domestic consumption, to tell Arab Street "don't try to out-crazy me."

"Arabs think absolutely NOTHING of committing war crimes against their own people if they think it can be used as a rhetorical bludgeon on the international scene against their enemy."

They think absolutely NOTHING of committing war crimes against their own people even if there's nothing to be gained on the international scene from doing so. They. Don't. Care. About. International. Opinion. (Well, they do AFTER they get the crap beaten about them. For maybe thirty seconds, tops.)

The Arab is either at your feet or at your throat. There is no in-between state.

There's a reason that part of the world is, as the God-Emperor described it so eloquently, "a shithole." Assad's daddy flattened Hama and the surrounding countryside just to put down a minor rebellion. And it's an arguably sensible position for someone like Assad.

Blogger Crew April 12, 2018 9:33 AM  

Assad's daddy flattened Hama and the surrounding countryside just to put down a minor rebellion. And it's an arguably sensible position for someone like Assad.

Sounds like he knows how to deal with Arabs.

Blogger Frank Brady April 12, 2018 9:48 AM  

@Dirk Manly

I have a problem with someone who lies to his base and to the world and bounces from one position to an entirely contradictory one without hesitation or explanation. You apparently have no problem with a President who's words are meaningless. That would seem to be an odd basis for blind trust. I do agree that Trump is "playing" someone though.

Blogger James Dixon April 12, 2018 10:00 AM  

> You apparently have no problem with a President who's words are meaningless. T

If you think his words are meaningless, no one here can help you. If you think they mean more than they actually mean, ditto. I suggest you seek the help of a professional.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash April 12, 2018 10:08 AM  

Frank Brady wrote:Continuing to trust someone when you believe and admit that his words mean nothing is the literal definition of gullibility.
Trump isn't my leader. Trump is my agent.

Blogger Peter Gent April 12, 2018 10:28 AM  

Frank Brady wrote:@Dirk Manly

I have a problem with someone who lies to his base and to the world and bounces from one position to an entirely contradictory one without hesitation or explanation. You apparently have no problem with a President who's words are meaningless. That would seem to be an odd basis for blind trust. I do agree that Trump is "playing" someone though.

So how did you do with Obama or for that matter with Hillary as a possible president?

Blogger Lovekraft April 12, 2018 12:08 PM  

@64 Peter Gent:

This. Reverse the onus. The left seems to think people like us have short memories when in fact, the many, many obscenities (for lack of a better word) that surrounded the Obama reign shine clear in our minds.

Blogger Dirk Manly April 12, 2018 8:41 PM  

@61

"I have a problem with someone who lies to his base and to the world and bounces from one position to an entirely contradictory one without hesitation or explanation. You apparently have no problem with a President who's words are meaningless. That would seem to be an odd basis for blind trust. I do agree that Trump is "playing" someone though."

He didn't lie to me.


As Scott Adams said, the difference between the MSM and a Trump supporter is the the MSM takes him literally, but not seriously (which is the same mistake you are making), whereas Trump's base takes him figuratively and seriously.

In other words, he didn't lie to me, man. Unlike you, I GET THE MAN.

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