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Sunday, July 22, 2018

Time to go, Theresa

Hard Brexit is looking better and better thanks to the machinations of the stealth Remainers:
Theresa May faces a deepening political crisis as a poll showed voters oppose her Brexit plans - and are ready shift to the hard right.

Just 12 per cent said the compromise solution being championed by the PM would be good for Britain.

In a particularly stinging finding, the research found that twice as many people thought Boris Johnson would do a better job in Downing Street.

Mrs May is battling to hold the Tories together as she desperately scrambles to put together a deal with the EU. Mr Johnson and David Davis both quit Cabinet after the premier forced through a compromise plan through at a Chequers summit for ministers a fortnight ago.

Meanwhile, Mr Davis has waded back into the row by urging Mrs May to rip up her plans altogether and start again. The proposals also do not appeared to have delivered the breakthrough with the EU that Mrs May had hoped - as fears rise of a no-deal Brexit. Michel Barnier gave the plans short shrift a a brutal press conference on Friday, suggesting they would be unacceptable.

According to a YouGov poll for the Sunday Times, just 12 per cent of the public think the Chequers plan would be good for Britain, while 43 per cent disagree. Around 38 per cent would vote for a new party on the right that was committed to Brexit. Some 24 per cent would be prepared to support an explicitly far-right anti-immigrant, anti-Islam party.
The Alt-Right is the only Right and it is inevitable. Everywhere.

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88 Comments:

Blogger wreckage July 22, 2018 11:06 AM  

People will move right until they get what they want. Ref. Taleb "Antifragile" on the disastrous results of pursuing an illusion of stability., in this case, disastrous results for the globalists.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine July 22, 2018 11:10 AM  

She's not going to leave until men come to drag her out of her office and cast her on her face in the pigsty.

Blogger MendoScot July 22, 2018 11:11 AM  

Hard Brexit should have been the default position from the start. This should have been made brutally clear to the EU flunkies who have torpedoed every reasonable compromise on the assumption that the UK would never go through with it.

Also, we should have left already. Drawing it out only ever favoured the EU.

And no divorce bill. Ever.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd July 22, 2018 11:28 AM  

Azure Amaranthine wrote:She's not going to leave until men come to drag her out of her office and cast her on her face in the pigsty.

Defenestrate, then let the dogs eat the corpse. It's a grand old tradition for female ``leaders.''

Blogger lynnjynh9315 July 22, 2018 11:29 AM  

Brexiters should take up their guns and depose her... oh wait. A real shame that.

Blogger Lance E July 22, 2018 11:43 AM  

"...battling to hold the Tories together?"

Oh no no, the only thing she's "battling" for is her own position. If she wanted to hold the Tories together, the obvious move would be to appoint Boris Johnson (or literally anyone else) to her position, and then resign.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan July 22, 2018 11:50 AM  

Off to Rotherham she goes.

Blogger Lazarus July 22, 2018 11:51 AM  

Defenestrate, then let the dogs eat the corpse. It's a grand old tradition for female ``leaders.''

Tyranny of the pantyhose.

Blogger DonReynolds July 22, 2018 11:58 AM  

Teresa May no longer has a plan that is acceptable to the public. Her party must make the decision to dump her in favor of someone with slightly less baggage, else the party will be voted out of power altogether. The prospect of Labour getting back in power is not going to thrill anyone who supports Brexit and wants the obstacle (Teresa May) removed. Labour is so far to the Left these days that it makes it difficult to throw the conservatives out of office. This is starting to look familiar....to the political situation in the USA.

The solution to RINO Republican NeverTrumpers is not Socialist Democrats. WE simply must separate the RINOs from public office, so they can all become regulars on CNN or MSNBC.

Blogger Stan Dane July 22, 2018 12:10 PM  

Perhaps Theresa hoped her Chequers plan would be received as well as Nixon's "Checkers Speech" was.

Blogger Lance E July 22, 2018 12:24 PM  

Mr.MantraMan wrote:Off to Rotherham she goes.

Even the Pakistani grooming gangs have standards.

Blogger Franz Lyonheart July 22, 2018 12:53 PM  

Around 38 per cent would vote for a new party on the right that was committed to Brexit. Some 24 per cent would be prepared to support an explicitly far-right anti-immigrant, anti-Islam party.

So what's wrong with UKIP? Count Dankula, Sargon of Akkad, and our Milo already are.

Blogger Gen. Kong July 22, 2018 12:57 PM  

Azure Amaranthine wrote:

She's not going to leave until men come to drag her out of her office and cast her on her face in the pigsty.

They need to run her through the woodchipper before she goes into the pigsty, along with nearly all MPs, magistrates, (((journalists))), and police. Porky eats best, the 2nd liturgy of St. Breivik the Great.

Blogger Azure Amaranthine July 22, 2018 12:57 PM  

"It's a grand old tradition for female ``leaders.''"

Jezebels be Jezebellin'.

Blogger Pseudotsuga July 22, 2018 1:11 PM  

You're no Margaret Thatcher, Ms. May.

Blogger John M July 22, 2018 2:07 PM  

Franz Lyonheart wrote:Around 38 per cent would vote for a new party on the right that was committed to Brexit. Some 24 per cent would be prepared to support an explicitly far-right anti-immigrant, anti-Islam party.

So what's wrong with UKIP? Count Dankula, Sargon of Akkad, and our Milo already are.



UKIP is run by a bunch of cucks, Nigel Farge himself is a cuck to some degree. I respect him for clearly having a heart when he fought against overwhelming odds for Brexit, but I do not respect him thinking it's mission accomplished and he can retire to enjoy life as a fox news contributor after achieving the Brexit vote. The vote was just the start of the process of extracting UK from the EU, and even after a hard Brexit lots of work needs to be done to sort out UK for its life after the EU.

The name of the party already is a problem, what will the party do after achieving independence for the UK?

Blogger Iron Spartan July 22, 2018 2:10 PM  

From what I am picking up at the Chans, the Globalists order realizes they fucked up and are abandoning the EU/multi-ethinic state concept they have backed for the last generation. If they keep pushing it, they will end up decorating light poles and or become targets of a new Saint Breivik or McVeigh.

Within 6 months you will see a massive shift in Europe, tied to the strengthening of the God Emperor's party in America.

May, Merkle and others are already goners politically. Its anyone's guess if they are being given orders to stay the course to help increase the size of the coming tidal wave, or if they are so married to their positions that they have no choice but to die on those hills.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 22, 2018 2:12 PM  

MendoScot wrote:Hard Brexit should have been the default position from the start. This should have been made brutally clear to the EU flunkies who have torpedoed every reasonable compromise on the assumption that the UK would never go through with it.

Also, we should have left already. Drawing it out only ever favoured the EU.

And no divorce bill. Ever.


Hate to break it to you, but the UK hasn't ever produced a 'reasonable' compromise.
I think leaving the EU is stupid for a host of reasons, but that's immaterial - The UK is has continuously tried to break the single market into the bits it would like and the EU has been fully clear, they aren't ever going to go along with that.
I know that you guys have a hardon for FoM (ignoring that a majority of all UK immigrants are non-EU immigrants) but they aren't ever going to bend on that one, if you wan't i can even explain why it would be stupid to do so economically speaking.
Leaving the only realistic options, an exit from the single market, that will hurt, but if you think it's worth it go for it.

Just as a helpful hint to everyone here though, the Tory party isn't pursuing Brexit (or it's brexiteers) for nationalist reasons, they are doing it because of a libertarian desire for more free trade, more immigration. And that's the brexit you are getting, not the nationalist Ukip one, it's the libertarian minford (no tariffs on ANYTHING) with more immigration, from the commonwealth instead of the EU. I can get you quotes from the entire brexiteer wing that are in favour of those things.
At the end of the day, when brexit is done, say five years from now, none of your desires will have been fulfilled, but you will have spent a decades worth of political capital getting the UK out of the EU and made yourself poorer.
And what's worse, given the impending clusterfuck of epic proportions, no one else is going to leave either.

Blogger John M July 22, 2018 2:18 PM  

Tory party is pursuing Brexit because they want the UK to become Canada/Mexico. They want to do a trade deal with the US so that they can be used by the EU and others to get pass tariffs. Of course the Trump administration knows what they are trying to do, so it was a complete fool's errand from day 1.

Blogger VD July 22, 2018 2:35 PM  

At the end of the day, when brexit is done, say five years from now, none of your desires will have been fulfilled, but you will have spent a decades worth of political capital getting the UK out of the EU and made yourself poorer.

Cuck, he cucked, cuckingly.

Blogger Lance E July 22, 2018 2:41 PM  

Desillusionerad wrote:And what's worse, given the impending clusterfuck of epic proportions, no one else is going to leave either.

Sure. That crash is going to happen any day now, like the stock market crash under Donald Trump. Just you wait, deplorable Brexiteers! You'll rue the day you voted against the EU!

Blogger Lovekraft July 22, 2018 2:46 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger Shimshon July 22, 2018 2:46 PM  

If a cuck cucked in a cucklet, and no one else was around to cuck it, has he really cuckingly cucked?

What is the sound of one cuck cucking?

Blogger Desillusionerad July 22, 2018 2:49 PM  

VD wrote:At the end of the day, when brexit is done, say five years from now, none of your desires will have been fulfilled, but you will have spent a decades worth of political capital getting the UK out of the EU and made yourself poorer.

Cuck, he cucked, cuckingly.


Well we will see - I just don't see why you have such great faith in the Tory party, you shouldn't.
http://peterjnorth.blogspot.com/2018/07/endgame.html?
Read that, it's by Pete North (a Hardcore Brexiteer i assure you) And it fairly well explains your problem:
"
These are men without principle, without decency, without honour. They are the saboteurs and wreckers. They don't care about Brexit. Brexit to them is just a window of opportunity for their dogmatic "free trade" ideas - all of which are bullshit."

The brexit the Tory party is going to go for, isn't a brexit any alt-righter would want.
The British people may have voted for less globalism, (Something i agree with) but the tory party pursuit of brexit is in favor of MORE gloablism.
Things they have always been in favor of in the EU - Less tariffs, Less Agricultural aid, Less structural aid to regions, against the social charter (that's workers rights) and expanding the EU membership (they are the sole entity in favor of Turkish EU membership basically) - Anyone trusting them to deliver a brexit that helps the 'somewheres' over the 'Anywheres' is frankly delusional.

Blogger Dave July 22, 2018 2:50 PM  

Iron Spartan wrote:From what I am picking up at the Chans, the Globalists order realizes they fucked up and are abandoning the EU/multi-ethinic state concept they have backed for the last generation. If they keep pushing it, they will end up decorating light poles and or become targets of a new Saint Breivik or McVeigh.

Within 6 months you will see a massive shift in Europe, tied to the strengthening of the God Emperor's party in America.

May, Merkle and others are already goners politically. Its anyone's guess if they are being given orders to stay the course to help increase the size of the coming tidal wave, or if they are so married to their positions that they have no choice but to die on those hills.


See https://voxday.blogspot.com/2018/07/the-end-of-world-revolution.html

Blogger Cecil Henry July 22, 2018 2:52 PM  

Soft Brexit:

'Do it for Merkel. We talked, and its what she thinks is best'

Blogger Desillusionerad July 22, 2018 2:55 PM  

Lance E wrote:Desillusionerad wrote:And what's worse, given the impending clusterfuck of epic proportions, no one else is going to leave either.

Sure. That crash is going to happen any day now, like the stock market crash under Donald Trump. Just you wait, deplorable Brexiteers! You'll rue the day you voted against the EU!


https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6747231/ministers-plan-to-stockpile-processed-food/

MINISTERS have drawn up secret plans to stockpile processed food in the event of EU divorce talks collapsing - to show Brussels that “no deal” is not a bluff.

Theresa May has ordered “no deal” planning “to step up” — with the government poised to start unveiling some of the 300 contingency measures in the coming weeks.

We will see what those plans for no deal says, but i doubt they will be all sunshine and roses.

Blogger MendoScot July 22, 2018 2:56 PM  

@Desillusionerad

I think leaving the EU is stupid for a host of reasons, but that's immaterial

Concern troll is concerned.

The UK is has continuously tried to break the single market into the bits it would like and the EU has been fully clear, they aren't ever going to go along with that.

They will have no choice. They go along, or it will be done to them. You really don't get how this works, do you?

I know that you guys have a hardon for FoM (ignoring that a majority of all UK immigrants are non-EU immigrants) but they aren't ever going to bend on that one, if you wan't i can even explain why it would be stupid to do so economically speaking.

Oh no, please don't throw me in the briar patch!
Low-IQ moron thinks more low-IQ duskies will raise his relative SMV.

Just as a helpful hint to everyone here though, the Tory party isn't pursuing Brexit...

There might be a Tory or two on this blog, but they're smart enough to keep their mouths shut, given that the Tories are to the left of the DNC.

And what's worse, given the impending clusterfuck of epic proportions, no one else is going to leave either.

Riiiggghhhttt...
The whole of Eastern Europe and most of the Mediteranean countries are in open rebellion against the core's social and economic policies.
But they'll never walk away.

We know why the EU is terrified of Brexit - it's inevitable success will convince the others that they can do it too.

Blogger Lance E July 22, 2018 3:21 PM  

Desillusionerad wrote:https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/6747231/ministers-plan-to-stockpile-processed-food/

MINISTERS have drawn up secret plans to stockpile processed food in the event of EU divorce talks collapsing - to show Brussels that “no deal” is not a bluff.


You mean... the same ministers who've been backing the Chequers plan? The remoaners and backbiters are worried about the consequences of a hard Brexit? How shocking! Scandalous, even! Tell us more!

This is like the "U.S. Officials claim..." sophistry from the New York Times. We know who these people are, despite transparent attempts at obfuscation.

Blogger James Dixon July 22, 2018 4:18 PM  

> if you wan't i can even explain why it would be stupid to do so economically speaking.

I'm sure you think you can. I'm also sure any explanation you give will be total BS.

> And what's worse, given the impending clusterfuck of epic proportions, no one else is going to leave either.

Sure they're not. Italy is well on it's way.

> At the end of the day, when brexit is done, say five years from now, none of your desires will have been fulfilled, but you will have spent a decades worth of political capital getting the UK out of the EU and made yourself poorer.

First, most of us aren't British and have expended no political capital. Second, brexit is only the start. You're really not going to like what's coming.

> I just don't see why you have such great faith in the Tory party, you shouldn't.

I don't. I have faith in the British people. But for some strange reason I doubt you're capable of understanding that.

> We will see what those plans for no deal says, but i doubt they will be all sunshine and roses.

And if those plans bore any relationship to reality we might have cause to be worried.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 22, 2018 4:26 PM  

MendoScot wrote:Concern troll is concerned.

Oh nope, i'm one thousand percent behind brexit.

MendoScot wrote:They will have no choice. They go along, or it will be done to them. You really don't get how this works, do you?
How? - The EU 27 has a combined GDP of 15 trillion dollars - It's on par with the United states, there is no power on earth than can force it to do anything - Short of a US invasion.
It could break apart sure, but then the single market will cease to exist.
And even if it did give the UK it's cherry deal, all the other problems the UK have with the EU (sovereignty, Money, federalization) that wouldn't go away, so i think that exiting the single market is sort of required.
MendoScot wrote:Oh no, please don't throw me in the briar patch!

Low-IQ moron thinks more low-IQ duskies will raise his relative SMV.

Cool man - Do you read this blog? because i'm afraid that the labour mobility thing is an inherent part of a well functioning economic area - It's one of VD's arguments against free trade (and presumably an argument against the EU too, but that's extrapolating).
MendoScot wrote:There might be a Tory or two on this blog, but they're smart enough to keep their mouths shut, given that the Tories are to the left of the DNC.
Helpful hint, Lega Nord is most likely to the left of the Democratic party.

MendoScot wrote:Riiiggghhhttt...

The whole of Eastern Europe and most of the Mediteranean countries are in open rebellion against the core's social and economic policies.

But they'll never walk away.


Eastern Europe doesn't want to accept refugees, they aren't going to be forced too (because they can't).
The EU also enjoys a 92% approval rating in Poland for example, don't really think any party wishing to leave are going to get much traction any time soon.
The Greeks does not want to leave the EURO, even if that would be a good idea, because they don't trust their politicians with their own currency, I wouldn't either if i were them.
The Italians problem with the EU is that the EU is unable to aid them in redistributing the refugees coming to Italy.
"Conte also called for the 'obligatory' and 'automatic' redistribution among EU member states of asylum seekers being processed in Italy. "
That's Italy current PM, Demanding that the EU helps it out with the refugees coming to Italy, My those Lega Nord people must be Europhiles extraordinare - I also can't really see how leaving the EU is going to make the EU take those refugees. Italy's problem is geographical, leaving the EU will only hurt it (in regards to refugees).
MendoScot wrote:We know why the EU is terrified of Brexit - it's inevitable success will convince the others that they can do it too.
Do you think it is a success? - Because i cant find a single brexiteer that thinks it's a success (currently) And maybe that's because the Thereason May or whatever, but the why doesn't matter, only the result, and currently, that result, well, it's not looking good for the UK. Now maybe the UK can fix the ship, or ride out a no deal, i don't think so, but doesn't matter, (because one way or another we will find out in 6 months) but so far, it's a disaster for the UK.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 22, 2018 4:43 PM  

Brexit has not been attempted and failed into a disaster. Brexit has caused all the useless blackpill pieces of shit, like you, to run in terror. The onlt reason Brexit could be termed a "disaster" is that it hasn't even begun to be attempted.

Blogger MendoScot July 22, 2018 4:44 PM  

How? - The EU 27 has a combined GDP of 15 trillion dollars - It's on par with the United states, there is no power on earth than can force it to do anything

Oh man, you really don't get it, do you?

Both Putin and Erdogan can dictate terms to the EU.

The EU are running to China for a deal, because they are afraid of Brexit and the non-EU deals that will go to the UK.

The EU is an economic loss for the UK, leaving will massively improve our trade balance.

The EU GDP will nose-dive, and that's what the Franco-German fascists are trying to avoid at all costs.

Central planning has never worked, doesn't work, and will never work, no matter your utopian whack-off dreams.

i don't think so, but doesn't matter, (because one way or another we will find out in 6 months) but so far, it's a disaster for the UK.

Did I miss the Martian attack? Because I'm pretty sure that's what Tony "45 minutes" Blair was predicting. Or is the Venusians in 6 months?

Blogger Bibliotheca Servare July 22, 2018 4:47 PM  

@ Desillusionerad: Wait, you said (July 22 2018 2:12 PM)

"...I think leaving the EU is stupid for a host of reasons, but that's immaterial..."

and now you claim

"Oh nope, i'm one thousand percent behind brexit."

so which is it? Do you think "leaving the EU (Brexit) is stupid" or are you "...one thousand percent behind Brexit"?

Or do you simultaneously support leaving the EU and believe that doing so is "stupid for a host of reasons"?

Blogger Desillusionerad July 22, 2018 4:49 PM  

James Dixon wrote:I'm sure you think you can. I'm also sure any explanation you give will be total BS.


I would be quoting VD so you go nuts.

James Dixon wrote:

First, most of us aren't British and have expended no political capital. Second, brexit is only the start. You're really not going to like what's coming.


For brexit to be the start, it would have to be a success.
Find me a brexiteer that thinks the current trajectory is a success.
Why, doesn't matter again, it really doesn't, because voters aren't going to care, why.
James Dixon wrote:I don't. I have faith in the British people. But for some strange reason I doubt you're capable of understanding that.
Do you have faith in the republican party? - Because literally all the reasons why applies to the Tories, but the Tories can't be Co-opted like trump did, the party has institutional control over who gets to be party leader.
What the people want really doesn't matter, it aught to yes, but it doesn't for pretty much the same reason it doesn't in the US too.
It's not that i don't have faith in the British people, it's that they aren't charge - And they aren't going to be in charge, blame first past the post. Ukip got like 13% of the votes in the 2015 election or the one before that, it doens't matter, they got Zero seats. the labour conservative duopoly is there, has been for a hundred years - When i say it isn't going away, that's not me saying it shouldn't go away, it's that the political system is broken purposefully so as to produce the results they want.
In 2015 the Tory party got 36% of the vote, but got 51% of the seats - And you people are fucking surprised that the Tory party doesn't give a shit what the people want.
James Dixon wrote:And if those plans bore any relationship to reality we might have cause to be worried.
The EU is drawing up it's plans for a no deal exit, they are pretty stark - As yet the best argument i have heard from brexiteers why the EU aren't actually going to pull the trigger and let it happen, Is because the EU wouldn't be that mean - The EU can either be a benevolent nice entity, at which point it might not let all the bad things it could avoid (like grounding all UK airlines) happen, or it's an malevolent entity in the fight for it's life - at which point, I would guess they be mean.
You pick whichever you like to be true.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 22, 2018 4:52 PM  

Snidely Whiplash wrote:Brexit has not been attempted and failed into a disaster. Brexit has caused all the useless blackpill pieces of shit, like you, to run in terror. The onlt reason Brexit could be termed a "disaster" is that it hasn't even begun to be attempted.

Okay, but doesn't matter.
The voters of EU countries, aren't going to say, oh well we could do it better because X, They are going to say, oh it was a disaster, we better not leave the EU.
Brexit won by 52-48 - A disastrous brexit only really needs to flip a percentage or two and no Exit.

Blogger Lance E July 22, 2018 4:58 PM  

Desillusionerad wrote:The EU 27 has a combined GDP of 15 trillion dollars - It's on par with the United states, there is no power on earth than can force it to do anything - Short of a US invasion.

What in the world makes you think that GDP has any bearing whatsoever on the strength of a government - whether that's in the capacity of military, trade, or anything else?

Even if you believe in welfare economics as any more than a hundred-year-long academic fraud - and you're speaking to an audience composed of many skeptics on this topic - there is still no theory associating domestic consumption with projection of political power. They're not related.

The EU is anemic in terms of both economic growth and industrial production. Where does their phenomenal strength come from, in your opinion?

Desillusionerad wrote:i'm afraid that the labour mobility thing is an inherent part of a well functioning economic area

You clearly don't understand Vox's critique. At all.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 22, 2018 5:02 PM  

Bibliotheca Servare wrote:@ Desillusionerad: Wait, you said (July 22 2018 2:12 PM)

"...I think leaving the EU is stupid for a host of reasons, but that's immaterial..."

and now you claim

"Oh nope, i'm one thousand percent behind brexit."

so which is it? Do you think "leaving the EU (Brexit) is stupid" or are you "...one thousand percent behind Brexit"?

Oh I'm not British - I think Brexit is great thing, because of the following reasons, A, it doesn't enjoy popular support in the UK so they should leave, because the EU is a big deal, it's like why you need a 3/4 majority to change the US constitution, It needs more than just 51% support.
B, Because i'm a Continentalist, and the UK are biggest Atlanticists in the EU, so happy to see them gone.
And C, because the alternative would be permanent vassalage to the United states.
and D, because i genuinely like the EU, sure it has problems, it does things i would prefer it didn't do, but what government doesn't?
Now sure, maybe someone here could sell me on a better solution, and i would change my mind, but i really don't think one exists.
Again, as just independent states, Europe almost as a whole, would be completely dependent on the United states, And i supremely fail to see how being 'subservient' Washington is any better than getting to sit at the table in Brussels.
And E i suppose, I knew it was going to be a fucking disaster that was going to strengthen the EU in the end.

So far, I'm happy, but you know, Brexit could be success (but i fucking doubt it).

Blogger Desillusionerad July 22, 2018 5:11 PM  

MendoScot wrote:Oh man, you really don't get it, do you?

Both Putin and Erdogan can dictate terms to the EU.


Totally man - One literally lets the other dictate it's trade policy, and the other is under crippling sanctions.

MendoScot wrote:The EU is an economic loss for the UK, leaving will massively improve our trade balance.

The EU GDP will nose-dive, and that's what the Franco-German fascists are trying to avoid at all costs.


The EU exports 3% of it's GDP to the UK, and the UK exports 15% of it's GDP to the EU.
I know who i'm betting on.
MendoScot wrote:Did I miss the Martian attack? Because I'm pretty sure that's what Tony "45 minutes" Blair was predicting. Or is the Venusians in 6 months?
Find me a brexiteer who thinks it's going well.
No one thinks it's going well, the reason why changes, but no one thinks it's going well at the moment.
And if you think a crash out is a good idea, I'm all with you, and we will find out in march.
I'm confident i'm right, and i don't really see the point trying to convince you.
One way or another we are going to find out in march.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 22, 2018 5:27 PM  

Lance E wrote:What in the world makes you think that GDP has any bearing whatsoever on the strength of a government - whether that's in the capacity of military, trade, or anything else?

Because a greater GDP typically means that you have a greater ability to produce things, those things includes Tanks, Aircraft, Bombs, and forth, so it very strongly relates to the military power of a country.

Lance E wrote:there is still no theory associating domestic consumption with projection of political power. They're not related.

This is a better one, except buying things from people typically makes them dependent on selling those things to you, unless can't do without. Have you ever heard of DOW chemical? The EU has a set of regulations, called REACH, it relates to chemicals, and by virtue of being a gigantic market for DOW, they comply with REACH regulations, in their business, in all their business, even in the US, Even when they don't have too, because following two sets of regulations is complicated and they want to be able to sell to the EU with less hassle.
So yeah, the EU is quite good at projecting power in the areas where they have sole competence.

Lance E wrote:The EU is anemic in terms of both economic growth and industrial production. Where does their phenomenal strength come from, in your opinion?
Okay make up your mind, Economic growth, means GDP growth, if you think GDP doesn't matter, why would growing that matter?
And helpful hint, Growth matters less than the base, the and the EU base, is very big.
Places with lots of growth typically have a shit base (that's why they are growing fast).
Lance E wrote:You clearly don't understand Vox's critique. At all.
https://voxday.blogspot.com/2017/02/labor-mobility-destroying-nations.html
"The freer the trade, the more endangered the nation."
Like it or not like it, the Single market (Technically i must insist it's not a free trade area, but that's not a relevant contention) - Is trying to create a singular market for the entire EU, and to do that you need labour mobility - Another quote:
It should be noted that increasing this country-to-country labor mobility rate within the EU is not only a major goal of the EU economic advisers, but the explicitly stated reason for this goal is their belief that increased labor mobility is required in order to increase economic growth.

So no, i got the argument pretty well, that wasn't the post i was thinking off, but it says what i said it said.
Labour mobility is an integral part of a single market.
Unavoidable.

Blogger MendoScot July 22, 2018 5:56 PM  

Totally man - One literally lets the other dictate it's trade policy, and the other is under crippling sanctions.

Heh. You're deluded not disillusioned. If the Commonwealth trade reverts to the UK, the EU is fucked.

The EU exports 3% of it's GDP to the UK, and the UK exports 15% of it's GDP to the EU. I know who i'm betting on.

So do I, people who can count.

Find me a brexiteer who thinks it's going well.

As long as May is in charge?

Regardless, where are all the disasters that we were guaranteed?

FAMINE! PLAGUE! ALIEN INVASIONS!

Or a period of adjustment while we bring her about.

Your lot lost. Mine did in independence for Scotland. We sucked it up and looked to the future.

But you, you are lost.

Blogger James Dixon July 22, 2018 6:04 PM  

> For brexit to be the start, it would have to be a success.

It will be. All it will take is a hard brexit. Which is almost certainly what we're going to get.

> Do you have faith in the republican party?

No. But the Republican party didn't elect Trump. The American people did.

> but the Tories can't be Co-opted like trump did

They don't have to be.

> but it doesn't for pretty much the same reason it doesn't in the US too.

And for the same reason, their control will eventually fail.

> it's that the political system is broken purposefully so as to produce the results they want.

So is the US one. It didn't matter here, it won't matter there.

> The EU is drawing up it's plans for a no deal exit, they are pretty stark

I'm sure they think they are. I'm also sure they won't work as planned.

> ...at which point it might not let all the bad things it could avoid (like grounding all UK airlines)

At which point Britain will retaliate in ways they won't like. And your average Brit will go, "Oh well, I guess we holiday in Canada, the US, Australia, or New Zealand this year."

> They are going to say, oh it was a disaster, we better not leave the EU.

Or they're going to say "The EU is turning into a disaster. Time to leave while we can."

> i'm afraid that the labour mobility thing is an inherent part of a well functioning economic area

Labor mobility is a requirement of free trade, yes. It has little to nothing to do with a "well functioning economic area". Economic areas can be well functioning without free trade or labor mobility. Trade has to be fair to function well, not free.

> The EU exports 3% of it's GDP to the UK, and the UK exports 15% of it's GDP to the EU.

They used to export and import far more from/to NZ and Australia, until the EU. They can again. They can also increase exports to Canada and the US.

Also, the original "free trade" was smuggling. If you think it can't make comeback you're delusional.

> And if you think a crash out is a good idea

I think it's inevitable, whether it's a good idea or not. And yes, it's better than remaining in the EU.

> I'm confident i'm right, and i don't really see the point trying to convince you.

So why are you here again? But it's good that you're don't care if you convince us or not, because your arguments to date wouldn't convince anyone.

> One way or another we are going to find out in march.

I hope so, but it wouldn't surprise me in the least if they folks in charge try to extend things further.

> except buying things from people typically makes them dependent on selling those things to you

You confuse expedience with dependence.

> Labour mobility is an integral part of a single market.

Well, that at least has more basis in truth than your "economic area" argument above. Vox's actual argument concerns free trade as it's currently defined though, not a "single market", which may or may not have free trade.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 22, 2018 6:30 PM  

MendoScot wrote:Heh. You're deluded not disillusioned. If the Commonwealth trade reverts to the UK, the EU is fucked.

Empire 2.0 - Go for it.

MendoScot wrote:As long as May is in charge?
Got any clue when she will be replaced?

MendoScot wrote:Your lot lost. Mine did in independence for Scotland. We sucked it up and looked to the future.

But you, you are lost.

I thought i explained, i wanted the UK to vote leave.
I got what i wanted - I would have been very disappointed with a 52-48 result going the other way.

Blogger DonReynolds July 22, 2018 6:43 PM  

@42 James Dixon
"> Do you have faith in the republican party?

No. But the Republican party didn't elect Trump. The American people did."

Absolutely correct!
The Republican party could not elect anyone. All the party (either party) can do is select a nominee. They selected Donald Trump over 23 other candidates. The American people did the rest.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 22, 2018 6:43 PM  

James Dixon wrote:It will be. All it will take is a hard brexit. Which is almost certainly what we're going to get.
I doubt it, but we shall see.
James Dixon wrote:No. But the Republican party didn't elect Trump. The American people did.

-

They don't have to be.

Oh you should read what i wrote again, the Tory party institutional power remains completely in charge.

James Dixon wrote:So is the US one. It didn't matter here, it won't matter there.

Oh I wasn't aware that the Republican congress or senate was wholly behind trump, when did that happen?
Also, do you think he would have been elected if the party leadership had the power to select the candidates?

James Dixon wrote:Labor mobility is a requirement of free trade, yes. It has little to nothing to do with a "well functioning economic area". Economic areas can be well functioning without free trade or labor mobility. Trade has to be fair to function well, not free
No, they cant.
You can't have a single market without labour mobility, by definition.
you have heard of the Labour market have you?
James Dixon wrote:They used to export and import far more from/to NZ and Australia, until the EU. They can again. They can also increase exports to Canada and the US.
Sure - Because as we all know NZ, Aus, and Canada are both just hankering to resume their prior subservience in empire 2.0 - And haven't re-oriented their economies since independence.
James Dixon wrote:Also, the original "free trade" was smuggling. If you think it can't make comeback you're delusional.
Sound government policy for sure - The UK going to be a Narco state next?
James Dixon wrote:You confuse expedience with dependence.
I thought that the 'German car manufacturers are going to force merkel to give the UK a good deal' was the main leverage the UK had?
James Dixon wrote:

Well, that at least has more basis in truth than your "economic area" argument above. Vox's actual argument concerns free trade as it's currently defined though, not a "single market", which may or may not have free trade.

The single market is a unique thing, it doesn't have well developed nomenclature.
In any case, The single market is a free trade area ´+ a lot of things, Which is why i think it's wrong to call it a free trade area.
But you can't have a single market without a free trade area.

Blogger MendoScot July 22, 2018 6:44 PM  

Empire 2.0 - Go for it.
Got any clue when she will be replaced?
I thought i explained, i wanted the UK to vote leave.

In the God Emperor's name, let none of them survive.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 22, 2018 6:46 PM  

DonReynolds wrote:@42 James Dixon

"> Do you have faith in the republican party?

No. But the Republican party didn't elect Trump. The American people did."

Absolutely correct!

The Republican party could not elect anyone. All the party (either party) can do is select a nominee. They selected Donald Trump over 23 other candidates. The American people did the rest.


yeah the primary voters did that, they are to a very large extent, the american people.
The problem i highlighted is that the Tory way of electing a leader is that their membership (not the people) gets to pick between the two candidates with the most support from the MP's.
To put that into perspective, that's as if the Republican Congressional caucus got to pick the two candidates they liked, and then all the republican state legislators got to pick between those two - Does anyone think Trump would have prevailed?

Blogger VFM #7634 July 22, 2018 6:50 PM  

I'm daring to be optimistic here, but I wonder if Trump taught May the fine art of black-hatting. I mean look at what's happening here: Hard Brexit is more popular than ever. May has all the cover in the world needed against the Remainers and Eurocrats to go through with it.

Blogger Uncle John's Band July 22, 2018 6:51 PM  

@ 46. MendoScot

That's the quicksand. The whole series of exchanges is a fine demonstration of the faux coherence that can meander forever without reaching anything. A more subtle form, but still rhetoric of deception.

Blogger MendoScot July 22, 2018 7:15 PM  

Au contraire, mon ami...

It reached its inevitable conclusion.

Now where's my whisky?

Blogger Vaughan Williams July 22, 2018 7:17 PM  

How is May still in office?

Blogger MendoScot July 22, 2018 7:40 PM  

No one wants to be in front of the firing squad.

Blogger Dirk Manly July 22, 2018 8:16 PM  

@16

"

The name of the party already is a problem, what will the party do after achieving independence for the UK?"

KEEP IT!

Blogger MendoScot July 22, 2018 8:18 PM  

Yes. And little else besides.

Now wouldn't that be a fine thing?

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants July 22, 2018 8:47 PM  

It's spend the political capital or die, as a people and a party, you dipsh*t.
You also have ZERO understanding of how trade & markets work, if you think staying in the EU is more favorable than a leave.
Ultimately, it doesn't matter what the current Brexiteers are pushing for, because these ppl can be gotten rid of and the Britbongs can move the Overton Window by voting, if they want a more rightward lurch.
As far as others leaving,it's inevitable. You see everything in a current paradigm, not a swiftly shifting one. Try to expand your thinking.

Blogger Zeroh Tollrants July 22, 2018 8:51 PM  

You *STILL* don't understand that things are reversed in incremental degrees. You don't get a whip fast change of direction on matters like this, you get 2 steps forward, 1 back and sometimes even 3 back, with each movement.
No one trusts any politician, we trust the instincts of the people and their desire to survive.

Blogger Uncle John's Band July 22, 2018 9:20 PM  

Well played.

Blogger James Dixon July 22, 2018 10:21 PM  

> Oh you should read what i wrote again, the Tory party institutional power remains completely in charge.

Lots of things stay the same, until they don't.

> Oh I wasn't aware that the Republican congress or senate was wholly behind trump, when did that happen?

Give it time. Things are changing. Faster than you think.

> No, they cant. You can't have a single market without labour mobility, by definition.

Economic area does not equate to single market. But that's the level of your arguments, so I can't say I'm surprised.

> Sure - Because as we all know NZ, Aus, and Canada are both just hankering to resume their prior subservience in empire 2.0

Actually, from what I've heard, yes they are.

> The single market is a unique thing, it doesn't have well developed nomenclature.

Oh, it's unique all right. But not in the sense of being a single market. There' are several of those around (the U.S., Canada, and Australia; just to name three).

> The problem i highlighted is that the Tory way of electing a leader is that their membership (not the people) gets to pick between the two candidates with the most support from the MP's.

Political parties that don't represent their voters die. It takes a while, but the Republican party was dying a slow death before Trump. It may resume that process once he leaves. The same thing will happen to the Tories if they betray their voters.

Blogger Lance E July 22, 2018 10:28 PM  

Desillusionerad wrote:
The EU exports 3% of it's GDP to the UK, and the UK exports 15% of it's GDP to the EU.


More welfare economics, and not even used correctly within its fraudulent scope. Corollary: "Texas exports more of its GDP to the USA than the USA exports to Texas, so secession is out of the question." By your logic, there is literally no degree of political and economic consolidation that isn't beneficial to every party; this is called globalism, no matter what pseudo-economic excuses you make.

Desillusionerad wrote:Because a greater GDP typically means that you have a greater ability to produce things
No it doesn't. Look up American GDP by sector and note how much represents actual industry. American GDP has grown despite mass de-industrialization. The Finance sector (AKA Wall Street) is the single largest contributor.

GDP is an extremely weak proxy for production capacity; that's one reason it's so dangerous.

[rambling nonsense about REACH and the "DOW" chemical company]

First of all, it's "Dow", not "DOW". Their name is not capitalized. Making this mistake multiple times suggests a Wiki skim without any real understanding.

In any case, this is totally ignorant of modern business. Large corporations love regulations, because they inhibit the ability of smaller competitors to do business.

You'd have had better luck with this argument referencing the EU's steep and arbitrary fines against American tech companies, but even then, it's a red herring that doesn't support your argument.

Okay make up your mind, Economic growth, means GDP growth, if you think GDP doesn't matter, why would growing that matter?

For the same reason that private investors chase growth, not revenue. A large enterprise that's stagnating or shrinking is a much worse investment than a small upstart that's doubling in size every year. Current revenue means very little compared to whether or not it's growing faster than expenses.

Governments also have the option of warfare, but the EU doesn't have anything resembling a military wing.

And helpful hint, Growth matters less than the base

Wrong. The EU's anemic sub-2% growth is happening at the same time as unprecedented mass migration and huge increases in government spending. Real production per capita is plummeting. If this happened in the private sector, both investors and employees would be fleeing.

https://voxday.blogspot.com/2017/02/labor-mobility-destroying-nations.html

I've read it. I mostly agree with Vox on free trade. By claiming that labor mobility is an "inherent part of a well-functioning economic area", you've demonstrated that you didn't understand his point.

the Single market (Technically i must insist it's not a free trade area, but that's not a relevant contention)

Ugh, gamma parens.

the explicitly stated reason for this goal is their belief that increased labor mobility is required in order to increase economic growth.

A belief that is literally catastrophic, as our host has demonstrated dozens of times - assuming you actually read anything he's written, rather than skimming for anything that looks like it might support your globalism (sorry, "continentalism").

Blogger wreckage July 23, 2018 4:11 AM  

GDP is an OK way of getting an idea of the relative size of an economy. However, consider the following: if a government agency withdraws one billion dollars from an ATM and sets it on fire, GDP grows by one billion dollars. Likewise increasing the population by one million welfare recipients will immediately grow GDP by at least the cost of their welfare payments. In fact, increasing the population by one million wheelchair-bound welfare recipients with very high costs of care, will grow GDP even more.

This is very simple stuff. Use a measure wrongly, or reverse the causality, and you get stupidity. Increased productive output will grow GDP, but growing GDP will not increase productive output, any more than dunking your thermometer in cold water will cure you of a fever.

This confusion of measurements with the reality they model is exactly the kind of thinking that had Pythagoreans convinced they could perform magic by making calculations.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 23, 2018 5:58 AM  

Zeroh Tollrants wrote:It's spend the political capital or die, as a people and a party, you dipsh*t.

What people ? - The Tories are Unionists, not nationalists.
In any case, I say again, a majority of all immigrants are non-EU immigrants, if you want i can link you to a video about brexit by Stefan Molyneux where he makes this very point.
Zeroh Tollrants wrote:You also have ZERO understanding of how trade & markets work, if you think staying in the EU is more favorable than a leave.
"Jacob Rees-Mogg Says "It Could Take 50 Years To Reap The Benefits Of Brexit""
Short term there is going to be a disruption.
I'm not going to opine about the next 50 years, that's beyond my ken.
Zeroh Tollrants wrote:Ultimately, it doesn't matter what the current Brexiteers are pushing for, because these ppl can be gotten rid of and the Britbongs can move the Overton Window by voting, if they want a more rightward lurch.
Again, in 2015, The conservative party got 36% of the vote, and 51% seats - So go on right ahead, they aren't going to give a shit, Again, the System is designed to ensure that the 'People' doesn't control the political process.
Zeroh Tollrants wrote:As far as others leaving,it's inevitable. You see everything in a current paradigm, not a swiftly shifting one. Try to expand your thinking.
Who? - Please give me an argument why a single member (any of them) would want to leave, or be in a position to leave.
Now that's distinct from an unplaned exit, or breakdown, but as in a Brexit style thing? No, i really don't think it's going to happen, to no small part because of the clusterfuck currently happening with Brexit.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 23, 2018 6:04 AM  

James Dixon wrote:Lots of things stay the same, until they don't.

True, the best argument i have heard about this fundamental realignment of the UK political system is a disatrous brexit though (so not a rousing success).
James Dixon wrote:Economic area does not equate to single market. But that's the level of your arguments, so I can't say I'm surprised.
Again, nothing equates to single market as it's unique.
In any case, labour mobility is an integral part of the EU single market, are we done with this point any time soon?
James Dixon wrote:Oh, it's unique all right. But not in the sense of being a single market. There' are several of those around (the U.S., Canada, and Australia; just to name three).
No, they have national markets, because they are countries.
No, the goal of the single market is to be a national market, but it's not there yet (service provision for instance).
In any case, this strengthens my point, because there are no internal controls of labour in: James Dixon wrote:the U.S., Canada, and Australia
James Dixon wrote:Political parties that don't represent their voters die. It takes a while, but the Republican party was dying a slow death before Trump. It may resume that process once he leaves. The same thing will happen to the Tories if they betray their voters.
To be replaced by what?
Again, 2015, they got 36% of the vote - Yet magically got 51% seats.
If we hadn't been talking about the UK, we wouldn't be calling this country a democracy anymore.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 23, 2018 6:26 AM  

Lance E wrote:More welfare economics, and not even used correctly within its fraudulent scope. Corollary: "Texas exports more of its GDP to the USA than the USA exports to Texas, so secession is out of the question." By your logic, there is literally no degree of political and economic consolidation that isn't beneficial to every party; this is called globalism, no matter what pseudo-economic excuses you make.

No, If Texes wants to leave they should leave - It's just frankly delusional to think that it would be Texas who got to dictate terms. That's my point, Not saying that the UK shouldn't brexit due to economics, just that the EU is more powerful than it, because that's a fact. When the american revolutionaries started their war, they didn't start it by saying "we are totally more powerful than them, and Britain is really weak actually", or it's "going to be a cakewalk easiest war ever" - I'm pretty sure they said things about a long hard struggle.
Willfully deluding people to the contrary is only going to set them up for a rude surprise.
Lance E wrote:No it doesn't. Look up American GDP by sector and note how much represents actual industry. American GDP has grown despite mass de-industrialization. The Finance sector (AKA Wall Street) is the single largest contributor.
Do you know what Typically means? You are saying this as if i don't know about the 'noise' problem.
Lance E wrote:GDP is an extremely weak proxy for production capacity; that's one reason it's so dangerous.
Create a better one - I'm quite certain you would get a nobel prize.
Lance E wrote:In any case, this is totally ignorant of modern business. Large corporations love regulations, because they inhibit the ability of smaller competitors to do business.


I agree rent seeking is a problem - But just how the fuck are Dow rent seeking by using standards that are more stringent than their competitors?
(Hint, this argument is really bad).
Lance E wrote:You'd have had better luck with this argument referencing the EU's steep and arbitrary fines against American tech companies, but even then, it's a red herring that doesn't support your argument.
I'm pretty sure that those fines constitute an ability to project political force.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 23, 2018 6:26 AM  

Lance E wrote:Wrong. The EU's anemic sub-2% growth is happening at the same time as unprecedented mass migration and huge increases in government spending. Real production per capita is plummeting. If this happened in the private sector, both investors and employees would be fleeing.
The EU as a whole isn't taking in refugees, only a subset of countries are - Now if you wan't to argue about the terrible macroeconomic position of Sweden, i'm all with you - This doesn't apply to the rest of Europe though.
Lance E wrote:

Ugh, gamma parens.

No it's a brexiteer thing, some idiots thinks that the EEC used to be a 'Free trade area' or that the UK only joined a 'Free trade area' - Because apparently they cant fucking read, that's why i don't like calling it a free trade area. Because of morons who refuse to internalize basic facts like, the Ever closer union paragraph in the treaty of Rome.
Lance E wrote:A belief that is literally catastrophic, as our host has demonstrated dozens of times - assuming you actually read anything he's written, rather than skimming for anything that looks like it might support your globalism (sorry, "continentalism").
It's catastrophic towards the nations (or so he argues) - that's a different question.
I argue that labour mobility is a necessary part of the single market, which he does too, Which is why he is against it - I'm just not against the single market.

Blogger Damaris Tighe July 23, 2018 6:47 AM  

europe at present - that photograph of mussolini and his mistress.

Blogger CM July 23, 2018 8:46 AM  

So the compromise wasn't compromising enough to the EU?

May needs to go if she is set on an amicable parting with the EU. They won't accept anything less than the once illustrious British Empire is cut down and bleeding at their feet.

Blogger Tom Rogers July 23, 2018 9:09 AM  

@24 Desillusionerad

Peter North is a Soft Brexiter, at best. That is not to disqualify what he says - his blog is highly informative - but his pieces should be read in light of this critical weakness, not in spite of it. What North will not mention is how Soft Brexiters like him, together with Remainers of course, have worked (I suspect sometimes in concert) to undermine Britain's negotiating position. If Brexit is a 'mess', it is because of those Brexiters and anti-Brexiters who want to make it Messy, not because of those who want a Clean Brexit. Ergo, if the government itself is making a mess of things, it is not for the self-justifying and entirely circular reasons North would have you believe. Of course, when I use the phrase 'Clean Brexit', I repeat myself.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelpia July 23, 2018 9:53 AM  

MendoScot wrote:Hard Brexit should have been the default position from the start. This should have been made brutally clear to the EU flunkies who have torpedoed every reasonable compromise on the assumption that the UK would never go through with it.

Also, we should have left already. Drawing it out only ever favoured the EU.

And no divorce bill. Ever.


Correct.

As I mentioned in another Brexit comment thread, May and her team are the worst negotiators ever. The EU needs British money.

They should have walked into the meeting and said, "You want our money? What are you willing to give us? Because if you don't make an offer for our money, we'll walk, and you'll have nothing."

The ironic thing, though, is that after all these months, we have arrived at what SHOULD have been the starting point.

A hard Brexit will be disruptive to both sides, but the disruption will hit the UK first. For example, does the EU start doing customs inspections at the end of the chunnel? They could, and traffic would back up for for miles. And, of course, Brussels could stand in the way of, say, Germany, making deals with the UK.

Over time, though, the UK would adjust. And the pain for EU will slowly and surely wratchet up, as commerce becomes clogged and, even more important, a year passes without UK money. The pain will be dull ache at first, and then become unbearable.

A hard Brexit will be a waiting game. A game of chicken. Who has the guts to hold out until the other side blinks?

Blogger Tom Rogers July 23, 2018 10:54 AM  

@68 KPKinSunnyPhiladelphia

You make good points, and you may turn out to be right - but personally I don't believe a 'hard Brexit' (I call it Clean Brexit) would be specially difficult for either side. I think most of the critical commentary from the Remainers and Soft Brexiters, indeed from the EU itself and from within the British government, is classic problem-finding from the types who have a bureaucrat's perspective on things.

For an indication of what will actually happen, we need only look at how successionist states have managed in past break-aways: take the Soviet Union, as an example - not an exact analogy, I realise, as it was a break-up more than a break-away, but there are parallels. In reality, most law and regulatory intervention is down to political will and it's likely that people on the ground will just muddle-along and find short-cuts and circumventions, which is what businesses are good at doing. But if they don't, what you say comes into play: it's about who blinks first. A pity that we have such weak leadership in this country.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelpia July 23, 2018 1:26 PM  

This comment has been removed by the author.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelpia July 23, 2018 1:30 PM  

@69 Tom Rogers

I don't disagree with you on the "bureaucrat's" perspective, and like you, I think the disruption is a matter of degree and timing. And the level of disruption to the UK is actually in the hands of the EU.

For example, the EU could say, "since you're no longer part of the EU, we can't accept stuff you make in the UK -- like drugs or cars -- since we don't have an agreement with you. Oh, and all the UK citizens in the EU -- we're going to expel them."

In a way, it would be great if the EU did that sort of stuff -- it would expose them for who they are. But I wouldn't put it past them. Why?

Because if some version of Brexit works -- either totally hard, or partially soft -- the EU as an entity is in serious trouble. "Hey," say the Dutch, or the Italians, or the Greeks, "if Britain can do it, so can we." And the whole house of cards comes crashing down.

As a student of negotiation, I have to tip my cap to Barnier and his crew. They have LESS power than the UK actually, but negotiate as if they have ALL the power. But when you have an inept team sitting opposite, as they do with May et. al., recalcitrance can be an effective strategy.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 23, 2018 1:55 PM  

Tom Rogers wrote:What North will not mention is how Soft Brexiters like him, together with Remainers of course, have worked (I suspect sometimes in concert) to undermine Britain's negotiating position.

The UK's negotiating position is fundamentally weak.
There is no getting around that.
Tom Rogers wrote:If Brexit is a 'mess', it is because of those Brexiters and anti-Brexiters who want to make it Messy, not because of those who want a Clean Brexit. Ergo, if the government itself is making a mess of things, it is not for the self-justifying and entirely circular reasons North would have you believe. Of course, when I use the phrase 'Clean Brexit', I repeat myself.
Either the brexit process is a mess (a surgery) or it's a sharp and fast amputation - And then you get the mess afterwards.
It's probably my greatest problem with Brexiteers, You have spent 40 years inside a regulatory system - To think an exit is 'simple' and 'clean' is delusional. Frankly if the UK could leave simply and clean after 'five minutes' I question why there is even an argument for leaving.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 23, 2018 2:09 PM  

KPKinSunnyPhiladelpia wrote:Correct.

As I mentioned in another Brexit comment thread, May and her team are the worst negotiators ever. The EU needs British money.

They should have walked into the meeting and said, "You want our money? What are you willing to give us? Because if you don't make an offer for our money, we'll walk, and you'll have nothing."


The UK contribution to the EU expressed as the GDP of the EU 27 is 0.13% of GDP - It's not a lot of money.
KPKinSunnyPhiladelpia wrote:A hard Brexit will be disruptive to both sides, but the disruption will hit the UK first. For example, does the EU start doing customs inspections at the end of the chunnel? They could, and traffic would back up for for miles.
Which is why not handing over the money is stupid - Even with no 'grand' deal, just the 20 or so small deals fixing all those small problems will still be needed so burning goodwill isn't a good idea.

KPKinSunnyPhiladelpia wrote:And, of course, Brussels could stand in the way of, say, Germany, making deals with the UK.
Someone should read up on the competences of the EU - Germany can't negotiate on it's own, its a EU competence.
KPKinSunnyPhiladelpia wrote:A hard Brexit will be a waiting game. A game of chicken. Who has the guts to hold out until the other side blinks?
This is a good time to think about the sort of groundwork that's been laid in the public mind about brexit - Where 'project fear' might have been a very good rhetorical response in the referendum itself, but if you promised that it will be simple and painless, and it isn't most people wont like it - There is a reason May is figuratively bending over to avoid short term pain (on which i'm wholly with you guys, its stupid).

Blogger Tom Rogers July 23, 2018 2:40 PM  

Desillusionerad wrote:The UK's negotiating position is fundamentally weak.

There is no getting around that.


That is total nonsense. The British position overall is and remains inherently strong. Obviously, there will be aspects on which we are weak, but it's a case of turning these to our advantage or putting in place plans. I just don't understand people with your mentality and why you are always doing this country down. Why you are so supplicant and weak?

Desillusionerad wrote:Either the brexit process is a mess (a surgery) or it's a sharp and fast amputation - And then you get the mess afterwards.

It's probably my greatest problem with Brexiteers, You have spent 40 years inside a regulatory system - To think an exit is 'simple' and 'clean' is delusional. Frankly if the UK could leave simply and clean after 'five minutes' I question why there is even an argument for leaving.


I think you're showing your hand here. I am British and I can guess at the type of person you are, and possibly even who you are exactly. As I have already stated, if Brexit is in any way a mess, it is because of people like you who have worked to undermine our negotiating position right from the day after the referendum. And your last sentence makes no sense, but the point is that any undertaking such as this is not without its difficulties - of course - but there are difficulties and then there is making much of trifles. If we were to believe people like you, we should abandon any hope of recovering sovereignty and national direction on account of the minutiae of airline regulations. People like you have literally told me in the past that airplanes would fall out of the sky if we leave on 29 March 2019. I do not exaggerate.

The direction should have been hard Brexit from the beginning. The practical difficulties can be resolved, and where the EU remains recalcitrant, contingencies can be put in place and businesses are used to working round difficulties. It is the 'Peter North'/'Richard North'/bureaucratic mindset that looks for difficulties in everything that has frustrated us.

In the case of the Norths, it's doubly ironic given that they were at the forefront of the anti-EU case for so many years. It's sad that when their big moment comes, they falter and resort to bespectacled, small-minded pedantry and lawyering. I've read the Flexcit Plan and all the monographs, and had we followed that, we would have stayed in the EU - forever. Indeed, I think Dr North should re-name Flexcit as 'Brexiters Saving The EU' - it would be more fitting.

Flexcit is for weaklings and the Norths are a couple of sad dorks.

Take it somewhere else.

Blogger KPKinSunnyPhiladelpia July 23, 2018 4:49 PM  

Desillusionerad wrote:The UK contribution to the EU expressed as the GDP of the EU 27 is 0.13% of GDP - It's not a lot of money.

Either you stupidly believe this apples to oranges comparison is valid, or you stupidly believe tha other people are as stupid as you think they are.

It's not about GDP -- it's about the UK's contribution to the EU budget. It's contribution has hovered around 10% of the EU budget, and over the time frame of 2007-2016 it has kicked in nearly 80 billion pounds, the third largest amount behind German and France.

Are you willing to take a 10% pay cut? Raise your hand now, or get the the hell out of this blog.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 23, 2018 5:14 PM  

Tom Rogers wrote:That is total nonsense. The British position overall is and remains inherently strong. Obviously, there will be aspects on which we are weak, but it's a case of turning these to our advantage or putting in place plans.

As evidenced by your stellar performance to date.
Tom Rogers wrote:I just don't understand people with your mentality and why you are always doing this country down. Why you are so supplicant and weak?
Well, I'm Swedish to begin with.
Tom Rogers wrote:I think you're showing your hand here. I am British and I can guess at the type of person you are, and possibly even who you are exactly. As I have already stated, if Brexit is in any way a mess, it is because of people like you who have worked to undermine our negotiating position right from the day after the referendum.
Well that would in fact be my job, at least tangentially - So good job me? Because i do not have any skin in this game (on your side).
Tom Rogers wrote:And your last sentence makes no sense, but the point is that any undertaking such as this is not without its difficulties - of course - but there are difficulties and then there is making much of trifles.
The argument against the EU is that it is a sovereignty sucking monster - If all the sovereignty it had taken from the UK could be remedied in 5 minutes, then Saddam's WMD's comes to mind.
Tom Rogers wrote:If we were to believe people like you, we should abandon any hope of recovering sovereignty and national direction on account of the minutiae of airline regulations. People like you have literally told me in the past that airplanes would fall out of the sky if we leave on 29 March 2019. I do not exaggerate.
If you want i can explain to you how and why that would indeed be the case (after a no-deal) - As for sovereignty, is Canada completely sovereign relative to the US? because that's part of the problem with brexit, the fact is that the EU is the hegemon of Europe, and that means it exerts influence over other countries in Europe. So you might de-jure take back sovereignty, but de-facto, say hello to being Canada. If you think brexit is still a good idea after internalizing those facts, go right on ahead.
In fact, as i said before, Go right on ahead anyway.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 23, 2018 5:24 PM  


Tom Rogers wrote:The direction should have been hard Brexit from the beginning. The practical difficulties can be resolved, and where the EU remains recalcitrant, contingencies can be put in place and businesses are used to working round difficulties. It is the 'Peter North'/'Richard North'/bureaucratic mindset that looks for difficulties in everything that has frustrated us.
On that i agree - The only problem is that leaving the single market will be disruptive, I make 0 predictions about medium term outcomes, but short term it's a disruption. The Tories though, they don't have the balls to rock the boat. That's why they still wont give up asking for their half in half out single market solution (that the EU will never agree too anyway).
Tom Rogers wrote:I've read the Flexcit Plan and all the monographs, and had we followed that, we would have stayed in the EU - forever. Indeed, I think Dr North should re-name Flexcit as 'Brexiters Saving The EU' - it would be more fitting.
I think Flexcit is probably the neatest way to exiting the EU - In practice though, it's a terrible idea. The only viable solution to the problem (although it's time may have run out) - is to negotiate a hard (as in not staying in the EEA) exit - the Tories are just completely unwilling to absorb the economic pain of doing that.
I maintain a crash out is insane, and an EEA exit is almost definitively a hotel California.

KPKinSunnyPhiladelpia wrote:Either you stupidly believe this apples to oranges comparison is valid, or you stupidly believe tha other people are as stupid as you think they are.

It's not about GDP -- it's about the UK's contribution to the EU budget. It's contribution has hovered around 10% of the EU budget, and over the time frame of 2007-2016 it has kicked in nearly 80 billion pounds, the third largest amount behind German and France.

Are you willing to take a 10% pay cut? Raise your hand now, or get the the hell out of this blog.

I do not work for the EU, and if the entire sum were to be raised by increasing the costs straight to the tax payers, my income tax would raise by maybe 0.4%.
If the UK contribution needed to be raised from the EU 27, their overall tax bite would increase from 42.8 to almost 43%% of GDP.
It's not a lot of money - it's just one more argument over money that's ever present in the EU. The EU budget is really fucking small, compare to the US where the federal government controls about 40% of all taxes - (IIRC). The EU clocks in at less than 2%. the average European pays less than a Euro a day to the EU, there are valid arguments against teh EU, but money isn't one.
All the arguments over money is political, the sums do not matter.

Blogger Tom Rogers July 23, 2018 6:42 PM  

If you're Swedish, then I have no wish to discuss this with you. No disrespect to you or Swedes in general: I have nothing against your country or your people, but this is about my country and my people and I wish people on the Kontinenten (and now Scandinavia) would stop sticking their noses in and affecting to know better than us what is good for our country. You won't see me telling you what Sweden should do.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 23, 2018 7:28 PM  

Tom Rogers wrote:If you're Swedish, then I have no wish to discuss this with you. No disrespect to you or Swedes in general: I have nothing against your country or your people, but this is about my country and my people and I wish people on the Kontinenten (and now Scandinavia) would stop sticking their noses in and affecting to know better than us what is good for our country. You won't see me telling you what Sweden should do.

I'm not.
I'm 1000% behind brexit - Me telling you it's complicated, is just me telling you about reality. just because you hate the EU, doesn't make leaving the EU simple. I cannot fucking stress that enough, but whether or not brexit is a good idea is entirely dependent on a value judgement - Soverignty, nationhood, democracy, ther eis no answer to those questions. It has nothing to do with the difficulty of your goal.

Personally i would really hate it if brexit amounts being a clusterfuck and then everyone thinks the easiest fix is just undoing brexit - because let me be clear, That would be terrible as far as i'm concerned. I'm not in favour of a second referendum, EEA, or revoking article 50 Vehemently opposed to all of that.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash July 23, 2018 10:38 PM  

@Desillusionrad,
Gamma much?
You're wrong, and deathly afraid you'll be seen to be wrong. You're also not very bright.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 24, 2018 4:39 AM  

Strong argument. Much reason.
Meanwhile reality has proceded as I predicted - or are you living in the alternate universe where brexit currently isn't a disaster?
But in any case promise I will let you say 'I told you so' in April 2019.

Blogger James Dixon July 24, 2018 6:53 AM  

> In any case, this strengthens my point, because there are no internal controls of labour in:

So your argument is: It's unique, there's nothing else like it, so it's exactly like these other things?

Make up your mind.

> I argue that labour mobility is a necessary part of the single market,

Again, you try to use Vox's argument while changing the terms. Free trade is not the same as a single market.

> The argument against the EU is that it is a sovereignty sucking monster - If all the sovereignty it had taken from the UK could be remedied in 5 minutes,

It could be, just like Obamacare could have been repealed in 5 minutes in the US, but then you have politicians involved.

> As for sovereignty, is Canada completely sovereign relative to the US?

Yes. The US cannot force Canada to pass the laws it wants. It can only try to persuade them to.

> If you think brexit is still a good idea after internalizing those facts, go right on ahead.

So you think both we and the British voters are complete idiots then. I can't say I'm surprised in the least. Your entire set of posts illustrate the same derision everyone in the US has seen over the past 18 months from our own deep state.

> In fact, as i said before, Go right on ahead anyway.

Oh, they're going to. And I'm going to enjoy watching your suffer from the results.

> that the EU will never agree too anyway

And that's the strength of the British position.

> Me telling you it's complicated,

And we're telling you it's simple. The Brit's have said "we're leaving" and that's what they're going to do. Both sides had to the opportunity to negotiate in good faith on the process and what comes afterward. Neither side would, because neither side could ever imagine the situation changing. But it will.

> or are you living in the alternate universe where brexit currently isn't a disaster?

The only disaster is the negotiations. Which are going to amount to nothing in the end because neither side is negotiating in good faith. Brexit itself will be fine, and exactly what the British people wanted.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 24, 2018 8:11 AM  

James Dixon wrote:So your argument is: It's unique, there's nothing else like it, so it's exactly like these other things?
There is nothing like the Single market.
It is trying to be a national market.
In some ways it is one, and in others it isn't.
Happy?
James Dixon wrote:Again, you try to use Vox's argument while changing the terms. Free trade is not the same as a single market.
The (a) single market a fortiori includes free trade - Get back to me when there is internal customs in the US.
James Dixon wrote:It could be, just like Obamacare could have been repealed in 5 minutes in the US, but then you have politicians involved.
Yeah those two things are totally comparable - Also you are aware that the UK has been in the EU for 40 years?
If you repeal Obamacare things go back to the way they used to be - The way they used to be in the UK is 40 years out of date.
James Dixon wrote:Yes. The US cannot force Canada to pass the laws it wants. It can only try to persuade them to.
Hate to break it to you, but when you have a much, much, more powerful neighbor, they tend to be able to influence you to a great deal.
James Dixon wrote:So you think both we and the British voters are complete idiots then.
No, just uninformed about the EU.
James Dixon wrote:I can't say I'm surprised in the least. Your entire set of posts illustrate the same derision everyone in the US has seen over the past 18 months from our own deep state.
The Deep state isn't stupid, it just wants different things than the american people - That doesn't make the american people necessarily capable of achieving the things they want, nor does it make them stupid, any more than a plumber who cant perform heart surgery is stupid.
James Dixon wrote:Oh, they're going to. And I'm going to enjoy watching your suffer from the results.


Hate to break it to you, but no matter the outcome, i wont suffer.
James Dixon wrote:And we're telling you it's simple.
Just saying that it is so, doesn't make it so.
James Dixon wrote:The Brit's have said "we're leaving" and that's what they're going to do.
Is divorcing your wife of 40 years simple? - I mean sure, you just say, i want a divorce, simple right? Who cares about the kids, and the grand kids, the house, the assets, the friends, it's just simple. Because i want it - Are you a five year old?
James Dixon wrote:The only disaster is the negotiations. Which are going to amount to nothing in the end because neither side is negotiating in good faith. Brexit itself will be fine, and exactly what the British people wanted.
I will be here in April.

Blogger James Dixon July 24, 2018 9:27 AM  

> The (a) single market a fortiori includes free trade - Get back to me when there is internal customs in the US.

You've never heard of use taxes then. I'm so surprised.

> Yeah those two things are totally comparable

Pretty much, yes.

> Also you are aware that the UK has been in the EU for 40 years?

That would be hard since there hasn't been an EU for 40 years. But you do love misusing terms to confuse people, don't you? Wikepedia: "The Maastricht Treaty (1992) created the European Union..."

> Hate to break it to you, but when you have a much, much, more powerful neighbor, they tend to be able to influence you to a great deal.

Influence is not the same as force. I'm not surprised you don't understand the difference. This entire conversation you've been arguing about who has the upper hand rather than recognizing that's it a negotiation between equals.

> No, just uninformed about the EU.

Like I said, you think we're complete idiots. The fact that we might understand exactly what we're dealing with and want no part of it is inconceivable to you.

> Just saying that it is so, doesn't make it so.

And your saying it's complicated doesn't make it so.

> Is divorcing your wife of 40 years simple?

Ask a muslim. I'm sure they'll be happy to explain the process to you.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 24, 2018 10:44 AM  

James Dixon wrote:You've never heard of use taxes then. I'm so surprised.
You mean consumption taxes? - Those aren't customs.
James Dixon wrote:Pretty much, yes.
One is a small regulatory construct relating to a specific subset of the economy that's been around for a few years.
The other is essentially the entire economy that's been around for 40 years - Yeah totally comparable.
James Dixon wrote:That would be hard since there hasn't been an EU for 40 years. But you do love misusing terms to confuse people, don't you? Wikepedia: "The Maastricht Treaty (1992) created the European Union..."


The maastricht treaty renamed the EEC into the EU.
James Dixon wrote:Influence is not the same as force. I'm not surprised you don't understand the difference. This entire conversation you've been arguing about who has the upper hand rather than recognizing that's it a negotiation between equals.
But it isn't equals - The EU is vastly stronger than the UK.
It's position is better, it's fundamentals are better, there is literally no way in which it doesn't have the upper hand.
This is Greece-VS-EU, 2.0 - We know how that story ended.
James Dixon wrote:Like I said, you think we're complete idiots. The fact that we might understand exactly what we're dealing with and want no part of it is inconceivable to you.
Those are two different questions - The amount of information you need to understand you don't want to be a part of the EU is nowhere near enough to understand how the EU functions.
James Dixon wrote:And your saying it's complicated doesn't make it so.
No 40 years of political integration made it so.
James Dixon wrote:Ask a muslim. I'm sure they'll be happy to explain the process to you.
So you are a five year old - Don't complain to me when it's a disaster in April, or worse yet, you aren't out (just to reiterate, I absolutely do not want that).

Blogger James Dixon July 24, 2018 2:17 PM  

> You mean consumption taxes?

No, I don't.

> The maastricht treaty renamed the EEC into the EU.

Like I said, you love misusing terms to confuse people. The two aren't the same thing. If they were it wouldn't have required a new treaty, now would it?

> No 40 years of political integration made it so.

You only think Britain is integrated because they try to be polite to you.

> So you are a five year old

So you have no idea how Islamic divorce works then. As for age, I'm probably quite a bit older than you. I know how quickly political fictions can change, you apparently don't.

> Don't complain to me when it's a disaster in April, or worse yet, you aren't out

And slow on the uptake. I'm an American, not a Brit.

Blogger Desillusionerad July 25, 2018 4:59 AM  

James Dixon wrote:

No, I don't.

It doesn't matter what you are talking about, because it isn't customs anyway.
James Dixon wrote:Like I said, you love misusing terms to confuse people. The two aren't the same thing. If they were it wouldn't have required a new treaty, now would it?
What's your point? - Maastricht added a lot of power to the EEC, but that doesn't change the fact that EEC changed names to the EU.
James Dixon wrote:You only think Britain is integrated because they try to be polite to you.
yeah you are a five year old.

Blogger James Dixon July 25, 2018 6:00 AM  

> because it isn't customs anyway.

The fact that something has no enforcement points doesn't change the fact that it's a tax that has to be paid on imports. A law which relies on voluntary compliance is still a law.

But see my point above about misusing words.

> What's your point? - Maastricht added a lot of power to the EEC, but that doesn't change the fact that EEC changed names to the EU.

You know what my point was, since you just stated it. The EEC was not the EU.

> yeah you are a five year old.

And you've demonstrated repeatedly in this very thread that you're a liar.

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