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Friday, August 17, 2018

75 percent certainty

Nate Silver and company are even more certain that Democrats will take the House of Representatives than they were that Hillary Clinton would be elected President (72%):
3 in 4 Chance Democrats win control (74.6%)
1 in 4 Chance Republicans keep control (25.4%)
They are so certain of victory that they are desperately appealing to Republicans to vote for Democratic Congressional candidates:
In November, many Republican leaners and independents will face a difficult decision. The national Democratic Party under Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer doesn't share their views or values. But Trump is a rolling disaster of mendacity, corruption and prejudice. What should they do?

They should vote Democratic in their House race, no matter who the Democrats put forward. And they should vote Republican in Senate races with mainstream candidates (unlike, say, Corey Stewart in Virginia).

Why vote strategically in this case? Because American politics is in the midst of an emergency.

If Democrats gain control of the House but not the Senate, they will be a check on the president without becoming a threat to his best policies (from a Republican perspective) or able to enact their worst policies. The tax cut will stand. The Senate will still approve conservative judges. But the House will conduct real oversight hearings and expose both Russian influence and administration corruption. Under Republican control, important committees -- such as chairman Devin Nunes' Intelligence Committee -- have become scraping, sniveling, panting, pathetic tools of the executive branch. Only Democratic control can drain this particular swamp.

Alternatively: If Republicans retain control of the House in November, Trump will (correctly) claim victory and vindication. He will have beaten the political performances of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama in their first midterms. He will have proven the electoral value of racial and ethnic stereotyping. He will have demonstrated the effectiveness of circuslike distraction. He will have shown the political power of bold, constant, uncorrected lies. And he will gain many more enablers and imitators.

Perhaps worst of all, a victorious Trump will complete his takeover of the Republican Party (which is already far along). Even murmured dissent will be silenced. The GOP will be fully committed to a 2020 presidential campaign conducted in the spirit of George Wallace -- a campaign of racial division, of rural/urban division, of religious division, of party division that metastasizes into mutual contempt.

This would leave many Americans entirely abandoned in American politics: Catholics who are both pro-life and pro-immigrant. Evangelicals who are conservative but think that character matters, that compassion counts, that racial healing is a Christian calling. Traditional Republicans who miss a time -- not so long ago -- when leaders such as Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush modeled grace and led the West in defending freedom.

In a democracy, a vote is usually not a matter of good and evil. It is a matter of weighing competing goods and choosing lesser evils. The possible outcomes this November come down to this: Trump contained, or Trump triumphant.

Democrats, I suspect, will make a victory harder than it should be. A significant number seem to view Trump's vulnerability as an opportunity to ideologically purify their party. They are actively undermining the job of containing the president by alienating centrist voters they need to turn the House.

But this does not change the political and ethical reality. The only way to save the GOP is to defeat it in the House. In this case, a Republican vote for a Democratic representative will be an act of conscience.
The media simply does not understand, they simply will not accept, that it is the God-Emperor who is increasingly popular with the people, not the useless Republican cucks and cons in Congress. They also don't understand that the higher turnout in Democratic primaries isn't just a useful sign of party enthusiasm, it's also an indicator that the Democratic candidates nominated are going to be further to the left than they were in 2016. Which, in genuinely competitive districts, is usually going to render them less electable in November.

Labels: ,

78 Comments:

Blogger Nate August 17, 2018 8:16 AM  

Its my sincerest hope that... that article is the dumbest thing I read today. I don't know if I can tolerate much more than that in my condition.

Blogger Ransom Smith August 17, 2018 8:20 AM  

And they should vote Republican in Senate races with mainstream candidates (unlike, say, Corey Stewart in Virginia).
The fear over Corey Stewart gives me life.
The D3C must legitimately worry he has a chance of unseating Kaine.

Blogger Amy August 17, 2018 8:22 AM  

The only way to save the village is to destroy it? That logic and ethic never seems to pan out...

Shills gotta eat too, I guess. How large is the conservative Boomer voting bloc anyhow?

Blogger Azure Amaranthine August 17, 2018 8:25 AM  

Mendacious, say the progeny of deceit.

Blogger Franz Lyonheart August 17, 2018 8:27 AM  

Only Democratic control can drain this particular swamp.

Comedy value! 😂

Blogger cavalier973 August 17, 2018 8:28 AM  

I now automatically assume that any media or political personality that opposes Pres. Trump is a child molester.

Blogger Mr.MantraMan August 17, 2018 8:28 AM  

Gerson being a clown who helped America into it's Syracuse of Iraq.

Blogger Franz Lyonheart August 17, 2018 8:29 AM  

I don't know if I can tolerate much more than that in my condition.

Does it hurt when you're laughing?

My best wishes for a speedy recovery!

Blogger Franz Lyonheart August 17, 2018 8:35 AM  

The author of that awkwardly artificially constructed column is one (((Michael Gerson))). His paternal grandfather was Jewish. Every. Single. Fken. Time.

Blogger Gr8Again August 17, 2018 8:38 AM  

I made the mistake of clicking on the link to the Gerson piece, and was confronted with a giant picture of the man. Physiognomy is real! The man exudes weakness, femininity and perhaps a hint of pedo in the mix.

Looking at his bio on Infogalactic, I see (((Michael Gerson))) has a long history of cucking: "One of Gerson's first columns was entitled 'Letting Fear Rule', in which he compared skeptics of President Bush's immigration reform bill to nativist bigots of the 1880s".

Blogger Shimshon August 17, 2018 8:38 AM  

"But Trump is a rolling disaster of mendacity, corruption and prejudice."

Translation: Trump is sacrificing his honor, fortune, and life for you and your children's sake. On the other hand, the Democrats want to stab you in the back. Choices, choices. What is a moderate white voter to do?

Blogger FUBARwest August 17, 2018 8:45 AM  

Holy moly. "We are definitely going to win no matter what you do!"

"By the way please help us win"

It's hilarious even if it's sad.

Blogger widlast washere August 17, 2018 8:47 AM  

The Democrats are insane, it amazes me, all the little lies strewn throughout their statements with such mindless abandon.

Blogger English Tom August 17, 2018 8:47 AM  

...a campaign of racial division, of rural/urban division, of religious division...

Wow! Didn't someone once say these c**ts always project.
The hypocrisy is breathtaking in its shamelessness.
Oh, and using the term ethical regarding politics. Yeah sure.

Blogger Sherwood family August 17, 2018 8:50 AM  

OT: http://peterturchin.com/cliodynamica/the-ginkgo-model-of-societal-crisis/

Interesting take on our impending crisis.

Blogger Nick Siekierski August 17, 2018 8:51 AM  

great slogan for a shirt “Trump Triumphant” with him standing on a mountain above a writhing rogues’ gallery of splodey-headed leftist teeth gnashers below

Blogger Salt August 17, 2018 8:53 AM  

Their worry, it grows.

Blogger mike mike August 17, 2018 8:57 AM  

According to Rasmussen, Trump is at 49% approval while Obama was at 43% during the same time in his presidency. How do they reconcile that?

Blogger Jeff aka Orville August 17, 2018 9:00 AM  

Nate Silver, a perfect contrarian signal.

Blogger VD August 17, 2018 9:13 AM  

How do they reconcile that?

By combining historical ignorance with statistical innumeracy.

Blogger Longtime Lurker August 17, 2018 9:31 AM  

Hate to be OT, but: https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2018/08/trumps-space-force-comic-book-aims-to-reach-underserved-right-wing-audience-raises-300-of-funding-goal/

Blogger Longtime Lurker August 17, 2018 9:32 AM  

And in recompense for being OT: http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/402251-bernie-sanders-socialism-moves-to-democratic-mainstream

Blogger Argus Bacchus August 17, 2018 9:36 AM  

@6

Sounds perfectly fair to me.

They assume we're a bunch of genocidal killers, so I'm more than happy to return the favor.

Oh, that's UNFAIR? Really???

Like I give a crap.

Blogger Jew613 August 17, 2018 9:38 AM  

How many times does Nate Silver need to be wrong before his predictions aren't taken seriously?

Blogger Resident Moron™ August 17, 2018 9:39 AM  

"Translation: Trump is sacrificing his honor, fortune, and life for you and your children's sake. On the other hand, the Democrats want to stab you in the back. Choices, choices. What is a moderate white voter to do?"

What's a "strategic" voter to do?!?!?

Ooh, you'll be so 1888 if you don't vote stategically for your enemies.

He even managed to squeeze in a LOTE VOTE plug.

What a treacherous POS.

Blogger Colin Flaherty's baby momma August 17, 2018 9:39 AM  

The final polls and estimates prior to the election.

The New York Times: 80 percent chance of Clinton victory
Huffington Post: 98.1 percent chance of Clinton victory
Nate Silver/538: 72 percent chance of Clinton victory (323 electoral votes)
Bing.com: 89.7 percent chance of Clinton victory
NBC/SM: Clinton +6
IPSOS: Clinton +4
Fox News: Clinton +4
NBC/WSJ: Clinton +4
ABC/WashPost: Clinton +4
Herald: Clinton +4
Bloomberg: Clinton +3
.
.
How can anyone still trust these stupid losers?

"Trump will never run for President.
It's just a publicity stunt.
He can never get above 5%.
Trump really blew it this week, it's all downhill from here.
He peaked at 20%
Only white supremacist nazis support him. Everyone else hates him.
He hurt John McCain's feelings, no way he can win now.
He has a hard ceiling at 40%.
He insulted the Bushes, his candidacy is over.
He will never get above 50%.
Romney called him names. He's done.
Trump can't get the Republican nomination.
Trump and his supporters are crazy and violent.
He won't be able to get enough delegates.
He can't beat the Clinton crime family.
All the down-ballot Republicans will lose because of Trump.
The economy will collapse.
We'll get nuked.
The polls say Trump is doomed.
He can never win.
The electoral college won't allow him.
The Russians did it!
He will lose the recount.
Russians! Russians! We need war with Russia!"

These people deserve to be executed for all the lies, all the subversion, and all the resources they have wasted on their stupid hoax conspiracies.

Blogger Colin Flaherty's baby momma August 17, 2018 9:45 AM  

Media bias, you decide!
ABC News executive producer Ian Cameron is married to Susan Rice, Obama’s National Security Advisor.
CBS President David Rhodes is the brother of Ben Rhodes, Obama’s Deputy National Security Advisor for Strategic Communications.
NBC News Political Analyst, David Axelrod was Obama's Chief Campaign Advisor and Senior Advisor directly to Obama himself.
NBC CEO Stephen Burke is a Board Member of Warren Buffet’s Company Berkshire Hathaway. Buffet donated 920 million dollars to Obama’s campaign.
NBC’s moderator for Meet the Press, David Gregory, is married to Beth Wilkinson, a lawyer defending Hillary in her email scandal.
ABC News correspondent Claire Shipman is married to former White House Press Secretary Jay Carney, who now works for CNN as a commentator.
ABC News and Univision reporter Matthew Jaffe is married to Katie Hogan, Obama’s Deputy Press Secretary.
ABC News chief political correspondent and anchor George Stephanopoulos was the White House Communications Director then Senior Advisor for Policy and Strategy for Bill Clinton, and was just caught secretly donating $75,000 to the Clinton foundation.
ABC President Ben Sherwood is the brother of Obama’s Special Adviser Elizabeth Sherwood.
CNN President Virginia Moseley is married to former Hillary Clinton’s Deputy Secretary Tom Nides.
NBC Chelsea Clinton was making $600,000.00 a year + benefits as a starting reporter.
Univision’s Emmy Award Winning Anchor Jorge Ramos’s daughter is working on Hillary Clinton’s Presidential campaign.
Donna Brazile, Interim Head of the Democrat Party also writes for NBC and CNN. She was fired as head of the DNC for giving Hillary the debate questions before the Presidential Debate.
Yahoo is partnered with ABC News. The CEO of yahoo, Marissa Mayer is also an Obama campaign donor who has donated over $300,000.00 to Obama’s campaigns and has even hosted Obama fundraisers in her own home.

Blogger James Dixon August 17, 2018 9:49 AM  

> The media simply does not understand, they simply will not accept, that it is the God-Emperor who is increasingly popular with the people, not the useless Republican cucks and cons in Congress.

Absolutely. Of course my local Representative (McKinley)is a cuck who won't be betting my vote, but he's never needed it before and I doubt that will change this time. And I don't think there's a snowball's chance in hell Morrisey will be able to beat Manchin, whether I decide to vote for him or not (I'll probably vote third party). The Republican party of WV in general is completely worthless. For merely one example, they gain power and the first thing they do is raise taxes. Morons.

Blogger Blaidd August 17, 2018 9:55 AM  

How many times does Nate Silver need to be wrong before his predictions aren't taken seriously?

At least once more.

Blogger Jack Ward August 17, 2018 9:55 AM  

@1 Nate
Sincere hope, my brother in arms, not to mention residing in the same state, that, whatever you condition is that it improves. Quickly.

Blogger Matt Sellitto August 17, 2018 9:56 AM  

Nate Plastic has spoken. Looks like Republicans will keep the House.

Blogger Colin Flaherty's baby momma August 17, 2018 9:56 AM  

and remember, "There is NO fraud in our elections. They are flawless and incorruptible. Trump is threatening our democracy by hinting that the elections might be rigged. Trump and his violent idiot supporters must accept the election results of Trump's loss without question because it's a conspiracy theory to think that Dimocrats cheat.

Love,
Hellary, Obama, et al. "

Blogger Desdichado August 17, 2018 9:57 AM  

James Dixon wrote:The Republican party of WV in general is completely worthless.
On the other hand, they did impeach pretty much your entire state supreme court in one big go, though, hopefully paving the way for many more to follow. Should we start at the top, or start with the worst and target the 9th?

Blogger tz August 17, 2018 10:02 AM  

75% sure after the GOP retains the house and gets a huge gain in the Senate the democrats will declare it a "Moral Victory".

Blogger Nate August 17, 2018 10:10 AM  

'Sincere hope, my brother in arms, not to mention residing in the same state, that, whatever you condition is that it improves. Quickly. '

Surgery will take care of it. That happens Monday. I haven't been around much because.. well I'm in an enormous amount of pain and there are parts of my body that don't actually work. for example the other day a woman was sticking needles into my right leg and I had no idea she was doing it.

Its just a blown disc. I've been through this a couple times before. it'll be fine. I am just a little less sharp than I normally am right now because of the narcotics... and possibly someone more violent and volatile. so if I completely go off on someone in a giant epic rant for the slightest provocation... I apologize in advance. Think of it as drug induced performance art.

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey August 17, 2018 10:13 AM  

The piece that you link to is written by rabid, unrepentant neocon Michael Gerson, of course.

The part that you quote is is largely filler, to try to tie Gerson's emotionally-based message to some sort of real world relevance. The meat of the piece is in the first two paragraphs, where he tries to portray Trump as a down-market brand, and the Dems as the more aspirational one. I mean, the man appeared on pro wrestling ! Horrors! Standard marketing technique.

But they've been trying to do that all along, and it hasn't worked so far.

Blogger Damelon Brinn August 17, 2018 10:26 AM  

"Mendacity"? That's trying to scare people with a big word they don't really know. If he just called him a liar, too many people would think about it a second and realize, no, what the writer really fears is that Trump tells too much truth about things the writer doesn't want discussed.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 17, 2018 10:26 AM  

Which is more popular, pro wrestling or neocon war?

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey August 17, 2018 10:30 AM  

@38
Exactly.

Blogger Dave W. August 17, 2018 10:30 AM  

Michael Gerson, "Republican" from the WaPo.... he's about as right-wing as Jennifer Rubin. What a scumbag.

Blogger Nate August 17, 2018 10:35 AM  

'Which is more popular, pro wrestling or neocon war?'

hrm.. I would say white trash love wrestling slightly less than rich 60 something jewish men love bombing brown people.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 17, 2018 10:40 AM  

Nate wrote:I would say white trash love wrestling slightly less than rich 60 something jewish men love bombing brown people.
But there's so many ore of us.

Blogger kurt9 August 17, 2018 10:40 AM  

I remember when Nate Silver predicted that Trump would suffer a humiliating defeat.

Blogger StrongCoffee61 August 17, 2018 10:40 AM  

The more a Republican earns the admiration of the patriotic common man and woman, the more the media and the soyboy GOPe will spit hatred on him and his supporters.

This results in the right hand side of the Republican bell curve hating the media in return and not interacting with the pollsters.
The Republican sample is, therefore, misleadingly soft.

It happened, big time, in 1980 and 2016.

To happen in 2018 Trump needs to pound the issue of immigration. It's the big Achilles Heel of his opposition.
Make a stand for The Wall, call for a moratorium on immigration. Explain to voters about the massive environmental degradation caused by this low quality population explosion. Explain how our current immigration is severely undermining the labor value of lower income Americans. And much more.

Essentially, channel Patrick Buchanan and Ann Coulter and deliver the message with the intensity of Nigel Farage.

I think Trump has it in him, but we'll see.



Blogger Spud August 17, 2018 10:42 AM  

The higher turnout for Democrats isn't very surprising considering most of the places with high turnout vote blue anyways, but there isn't really a race in which the Republican is doing better than they did in 2 or even 4 years ago. The races are closer which shows a blue uptick and running as a full blown socialist only seems to help (the complete opposite from what we would have saw even 4 years ago).

This will not be enough for a congressional turnaround at this point, but don't disregard voter fraud and especially voter intimidation. It will no doubt be exponential compared to previous election cycles. People are seeing psychologists in droves due to TDS. Is it that far fetched to assume they would likely do anything they can to defeat him, even risking jail time?

On the other hand people are probably even more afraid to publicly state their support for Trump so the silent majority could be even larger this time than during the presidential election. Either way it is going to be interesting.

Blogger Damelon Brinn August 17, 2018 10:51 AM  

If Democrats gain control of the House but not the Senate, they will be a check on the president without becoming a threat to his best policies [....] But the House will conduct real oversight hearings and expose both Russian influence and administration corruption.

He can't believe anyone's stupid enough to buy this. If the Democrats take over and expose the corruption he's fantasizing about, that means impeachment, and all of Trump's policies are in the trash. You can't have that both ways. What, does he think the Democrats would be like the Republicans with Ken Defender-of-Epstein Starr, investigating forever and trying to hobble him politically but never going for the kill? Either he's stupid, or he thinks his readers are.

Blogger Zander Stander August 17, 2018 11:23 AM  

Yup, pedoface and a steep curve towards full-blown problem glasses.

Blogger Alexander August 17, 2018 11:37 AM  

To be fair, I assume Nate Silver's readers are either stupid or delusional and seeking an amygdala retrieval.

So I can't fault Nate Silver for assuming the same.

Blogger James Dixon August 17, 2018 11:56 AM  

> Its just a blown disc.

Just, he says. :) Yeah, it's not life threatening, but I've known people who've had it. It's not fun.

Blogger tuberman August 17, 2018 12:03 PM  

Like Taleb's "Skin in the Game" concept. Nate Silver has no skin in this 75% chance that Dem's win house, and later the Dems say, "Russia again!"

Skin in the game would mean Nate would lose say 75% of his total assets without bailouts, if he was that wrong. He gets paid well for spouting crap instead.

Nate put your money where your mouth is or retire your FAKE POLLS.

Blogger freddie_mac August 17, 2018 12:16 PM  

This would leave many Americans entirely abandoned in American politics: Catholics who are both pro-life and pro-immigrant. Evangelicals who are conservative but think that character matters, that compassion counts, that racial healing is a Christian calling. Traditional Republicans who miss a time -- not so long ago -- when leaders such as Ronald Reagan and George H.W. Bush modeled grace and led the West in defending freedom. ... Democrats ... seem to view Trump's vulnerability as an opportunity to ideologically purify their party. They are actively undermining the job of containing the president by alienating centrist voters they need to turn the House. ... The only way to save the GOP is to defeat it in the House. In this case, a Republican vote for a Democratic representative will be an act of conscience.

So, per Gerson, right-leaning voters need to vote against their own best interest because reasons. All of the groups he cites that are entirely abandoned in American politics know (or, intelligent ones know) that they have no home with the Dems, but they're supposed to throw their lot in with people who hate them? Certainly, if you believe that "character matters, that compassion counts, that racial healing is a Christian calling" you *won't* find that with the Dems.

I'd feel sorry for this idiot and his friends if I wasn't so offended by their obvious gaslighting.

Blogger Uncle John's Band August 17, 2018 12:16 PM  

Reading this, the transparency of the agenda is unusual. It is similar to the latest Hothouse Earth propaganda, where the open call for central control was clearer than before. What isn't clear is how shrilling these authoritarian dreams more loudly serves their ends.

They are either mystified by their irrelevance, or have marching orders to double down regardless. I'm inclined to buy the latter, because the election is so critical for them.

Blogger Warunicorn August 17, 2018 12:21 PM  

When I walk into my local polling place this November, I'll be sure to walk through the door in a zombified fashion, arms forward, chanting, "Russia...Russia...Russia..."

Nate Silver can eat a dick, as can Gerson.

Blogger InformationMerchant August 17, 2018 12:26 PM  

This is amazing. The appeal to Republicans to vote against Trump despite Trump being the most popular president among republicans since polling on that began. (They know this, they fact checked Trump's tweet about being the most popular Republican ever and proudly told everyone it was only since records began.)

I wasn't prepared to read this: "George H.W. Bush modeled grace and led the West in defending freedom."

Blogger Were-Puppy August 17, 2018 12:30 PM  

@9 Franz Lyonheart
The author of that awkwardly artificially constructed column is one (((Michael Gerson))). His paternal grandfather was Jewish. Every. Single. Fken. Time.
---

The wall of jew splooge was so obvious I didn't even have to look up the author.

Blogger Were-Puppy August 17, 2018 12:38 PM  

@25 Resident Moron™
Ooh, you'll be so 1888 if you don't vote stategically for your enemies.
---

I figure the 1888 was a typo, but I went to Infogalactic and looked up 1888 in the USA for fun.

A lot of gems in there, including this one:

President of the United States Grover Cleveland declares the Chinese "impossible of assimilation with our people and dangerous to our peace and welfare".

Blogger Uncle Max August 17, 2018 12:46 PM  

Watch and marvel. Our GE already announced he would be doing multiple rallies for candidates the two months before the midterms. Is the press going to cover every one? Huge ratings, no? Will not GE help ramp up turnout, which is key? He said he'd do 6 a week maybe. How does the "press" factor that in? The prediction of a Dem takeover in the House is premature and wishcasting. It's gonna be something else to watch the next three months...

Blogger Silent Draco August 17, 2018 1:02 PM  

I stand with Jack Ward. Heal quickly, Nate.

Blogger English Tom August 17, 2018 1:18 PM  

...racial healing...

Doesn't this just sound so nice and cozy?

The reality: bend over Whitey and pay for what your ancestors did to my ancestors.

Blogger Cataline Sergius August 17, 2018 1:19 PM  

@Nate

Sorry about your back bro. That ain't kid's stuff.

Good luck with the recovery and Physical Tyranny.

Blogger Duke Norfolk August 17, 2018 1:28 PM  

They're going to continue lying to themselves until it works, by God!

These people are so pathetic. And truly evil.

Blogger Nate August 17, 2018 1:34 PM  

Thanks boys. I'm in pretty good shape. I mean my wife's an anesthesiologist and I have more bourbon in my vice cabinet than some liquor stores. Just got to make it to Monday.

Blogger Matt August 17, 2018 1:54 PM  

Good luck Nate. You know how you damaged your disc?

Blogger Nate August 17, 2018 2:11 PM  

"Good luck Nate. You know how you damaged your disc?"

***sigh***

Yeah... I was playing Volleyball and the dude on the other team was running his mouth.. and he's foot taller than me.. he jumped to spike a ball.. and I was sick of shit... so I stuffed him.

Then I walked off... laid down... and wanted to cry like a little girl.

Blogger Nate August 17, 2018 2:12 PM  

made the play though. so fuck that guy.

Blogger Sheila4g August 17, 2018 2:26 PM  

This nauseating brand of (((Judeo-Christian))) emoralizing (emoting/moralizing) is reason nth that I hold all the Bushes in contempt (and myself for having voted for George W). One can judge a man by those with whom he surrounds himself, and I cannot think of a one from those odious years not overflowing with this manipulative lying pilpul. Meanwhile, they are best of buddies with Bill Clinton, and Laura Bush and daughters think abortion and homosexuality are terrific, and add in Jeb, and . . . I can't even. Mind bleach needed stat.

Blogger DonReynolds August 17, 2018 3:07 PM  

During the American Revolution, the Patriots only had the support of 25 percent of the population and very often it was much less. The Loyalists tended to be slightly more numerous, but were often under the direct control and supervision of the British. Roughly HALF of the people in this country avoided taking a side and really just hoped to heaven that they could stay completely out of it....except maybe to make a buck or two by selling supplies to the British. (British money was valuable whereas the colonial money was practically worthless.)

In funny ways, these divisions are still pretty much with us in the USA. Reporting differs and is by no means exact, but the best estimate for today would be that a third of the population supports the Republican party. Slightly more than a third, support the Democrat party and another third insist they are Independent voters, who tend to cast the deciding vote in every election. Whoever wins the middle, will win the election. So it does not matter much how happy the party members might be with the candidate, the election will be decided by voters who are not party supporters.

Blogger DonReynolds August 17, 2018 3:13 PM  

Nate wrote:Thanks boys. I'm in pretty good shape. I mean my wife's an anesthesiologist and I have more bourbon in my vice cabinet than some liquor stores. Just got to make it to Monday.

Continue to exercise patience after the surgery, Nate. Give yourself extra time to get well and you will still get well soon. Best of luck on your surgery on Monday.

Blogger DJ | AMDG August 17, 2018 3:33 PM  

The reason I’m convinced the Dems are going to lose badly in Nov is because Bernie Sanders is traveling the country campaigning in support of Dem candidates. Sanders is notorious for not supporting or campaigning for anyone. He wouldn’t even offer verbal support for his own son in a local VT election!!! If the Dems convinced him to travel the country and he agreed to do so, they must be worried.

Blogger John Best August 17, 2018 4:11 PM  

Can't wait until Trump wins the mid-terms, I am still not tired of the winning.

Blogger Nate August 17, 2018 5:01 PM  

Well the drugs didn't work.

ya know back in 1914 the Jehovah's witnesses predicted that Jesus was coming back. When Jesus didn't come back.. and everyone noticed Him not coming back... They changed their story. The johos now claim that he really did come back! See he was just invisible. Like a thief in the night! And no one but them knew it.

I post this comment FOR NO REASON IN PARTICULAR.

Blogger Erika Juhasz Nagy August 17, 2018 9:13 PM  

All this doom and gloom over Republican's chances to win in November are based on Dem turnout in primaries. Every rabid, Trump hating Dem showed up to show how woke they are. D turnout in November will be much the same while R turnout will be a huge increase. Will be great to see the MSM media faces.

Blogger NewAnubis August 18, 2018 12:04 AM  

It'll be Russian interference according to the 300. (New fake news alignment group)

Blogger Matt August 18, 2018 4:32 AM  

Rener Gracie has a video of what he does to combat back pain, he had surgery in his early 20s.

I consider myself lucky so far, I have 2 bulging discs, but proper bending, and no longer doing dumb things to prove how strong I am, have kept it in check, for the most part.

Blogger Dirk Manly August 18, 2018 7:42 AM  

@6

"I now automatically assume that any media or political personality that opposes Pres. Trump is a child molester."

That's a very, VERY safe bet.

Blogger nswhorse August 18, 2018 1:59 PM  

The author does seem rather concerned.

Blogger will stroock August 19, 2018 4:36 AM  

To believe this 75% possibility you have to believe people who were totally wrong about 2016. To his credit, Silver was least wrong, but he was still wrong. You have to believe this number despite Trumps 46-50 percent approval in the Rasmussen, which was right. You have to believe the 75% number even though the Dems only have a 3-5 generic advantage. You have to believe the 75% number even though Trump's approval with Blacks is 25-35% and his approval is up with Hispanics.

Blogger James Dixon August 20, 2018 11:34 AM  

> ...is reason nth that I hold all the Bushes in contempt (and myself for having voted for George W...

Every generation has to learn. I voted for his dad... once.


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