ALL BLOG POSTS AND COMMENTS COPYRIGHT (C) 2003-2018 VOX DAY. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION IS EXPRESSLY PROHIBITED.

Friday, August 17, 2018

Middle-high severity territory

Peter Turchin tracks the intra-societal stresses that afflict historical societies, and the odds do not presently favor the current United States:
The fundamental drive (a kind of a “pump” that drives up social pressure) is the oversupply of labor, which developed after the 1970s as a result of multiple interacting factors, and more recently was made acute by technological change driving automation and robotization. Oversupply of labor is the root cause for both popular immiseration and elite over-production/intra-elite competition. Both of those factors, then, contribute to the fiscal crisis of the state, because immiserated population can’t pay taxes, while the elites work to reduce the taxes on themselves.

We saw all those mechanisms operating in our current crisis. Immiseration of large swaths of the American population was what fueled the successful campaign of a counter-elite presidential candidate, Donald Trump. Intra-elite conflict has reached unprecedented heights (since the First American Civil War), as the established elites are using various means at their disposal to get rid of the counter-elite chief of state. At the same time, a weird coalition of Trump and the established elites (remember, laws must be approved by the Congress) legislates deep cuts into the taxes the elites will pay, bringing the fiscal crisis of the state much sooner. Political violence has also reached new heights, although thankfully mostly demonstrators and counter-demonstrators are beaten up, not killed (a major exception was Charlottesville a year ago).

Until last year I thought that we collectively have a decent chance of avoiding the crisis, but I now have abandoned this hope. A major reason for my pessimism is the resolute refusal by our ruling class (including its both Liberal and Conservative wings) to see the real causes of the crisis. They are internal, not external. As a result, the mid-term elections will be completely free of (largely mythical) Russian influence, but no attempt is made to address the deep structural-demographic causes. All these pressures continue to increase....

Over the years I have studied about thirty cases of historical societies going into crisis, and emerging from it, ranging from Rome and China to France, Russia, and the United States. I scored the crisis severity in each by such parameters as the effect on the population (none, mild decline, catastrophic decrease), on the established elites (from mild downward social mobility to dispossession or even extermination), and on the state (territorial fragmentation, external conquest). Adding together these indicators, here’s the result: As you see, the more positive outcomes (lower severity on the left side) are fairly rare (about 10% of historical cases), while the majority of outcomes cluster in the middle-high severity territory.
I would be very surprised if the results of the coming crisis in the USA does not result in the dispossession and deportation of the established elites, given the fact that so many of them are foreign. As a general rule, foreign elites only survive a crisis when they habitually act in the interests of the masses over which they rule; those which predominantly act in their own interests tend to fare considerably less well.

Labels: , ,

75 Comments:

Blogger pyrrhus August 17, 2018 4:37 PM  

I noticed, as did other commenters, that Turchin was extremely vague about the causes of the over supply of labor...Of course, the influx of immigrants, legal and illegal, was much more important than automation, as was the outsourcing and strip mining of many companies in major industries. Another factor, not discussed by Turchin, is that this would be one of the rare crises in history in which the population was almost as well armed as the Elite enforcers...That could cut either way, I suppose.

Blogger Unknown August 17, 2018 4:38 PM  

What the hell is this guy talking about?
1. There is not an oversupply of labor due to automation. There is a severe shortage of skilled labor. For the first time ever, there are more job openings than there are eligible workers to fill them.
2. There have been no deep cuts in the amount of taxes the elites pay. In 2018, the top 20% of income earners will pay 87% of income tax, which is an even higher share than 2017.

We have plenty of real reasons for the coming crisis, no need to fabricate reasons.

Blogger LP999-16 August 17, 2018 4:47 PM  

Excessive labor supply, thanks to feminism sending all the women into the job market to displace men but not understanding how that would destroy the family unit.

Blogger sysadmn August 17, 2018 4:50 PM  

dispossession and deportation of the established elites?

The way things are going, they'll be lucky to be able to self-deport. A full-on class war resulting in their extermination is not impossible. The .001% have plans and resources in place. A wise few of the 1% will recognize the warning signs and bail early. The rest are at peril.

Blogger Freddy August 17, 2018 4:51 PM  

OT: Italian Bridge disaster linked to lasers. https://youtu.be/BtnO2NzGc-4

Blogger urthshu August 17, 2018 4:53 PM  

There's work. Not everyone sees ads for every opportunity due to the googles of the world tailoring ads for the employers and the users. Might that be one category of elites that will experience the middle-high severe consequences?

Blogger Noah B The Savage Gardener August 17, 2018 4:57 PM  

"The .001% have plans and resources in place."

Those bunkers can serve double duty as tombs.

Blogger tz August 17, 2018 4:59 PM  

After the first few elites are hanging from lamp posts, it won't so much they will be deported and dispossessed, but would have to move as fast as Jesus told the Jews in Matthew 25 (don't go back to get your cloak...).

It will be interesting since the doomsday bunkers are almost universally in Trumpland, surrounded by people who will have far more ammo than their security services, and you can't for less than about a billion make something so self-contained that water, power, oxygen, or sunlight can't be cut off. And I don't think they have nuclear subs available.

I think most will die because of simple arrogance - they won't be able to realize they won't be able to get out of their starving blue havens, and even if they have a helicopter, it will likely be Pinochet airways.

Blogger Nikephoros II Phokas August 17, 2018 4:59 PM  

Charlottesville is a "major exception"? A single woman died and it appears to have been an accident (and that's IF the car even hit her).

Wouldn't opening fire on a field of Congressmen be a more notable exception? Assassinating police officers? Jihadis? There are plenty examples of deadly political violence to choose from, they just can't be blamed on natzies.

This guy accuses the elites of refusing to face facts (which is true) while he himself can't stop virtue signaling and ignoring immigration, leftie violence, etc. What a fag.

Blogger Salt August 17, 2018 5:06 PM  

Nikephoros II Phokas wrote:Charlottesville is a "major exception"?

Yup. A Challenger took to the field.

Blogger Dire Badger August 17, 2018 5:07 PM  

The article in question ignores the most obvious problem/solution cycle.

Fiat currency.

Blogger cavalier973 August 17, 2018 5:14 PM  

Govt impositions of price floors for wages have more to do with labor surpluses than automation

Blogger Colin Flaherty's baby momma August 17, 2018 5:16 PM  

Charlottesville... the obese blob, Heather the Land Whale, died of a heart attack when she fell down in the scramble, after James Fields was threatened with a gun and his vehicle struck with a bat by one of the communist hate mob members who were blocking the street, causing him to panic as he was calmly driving away from the legally permitted Unite the Right rally against the removal of a historical statue, where the police funneled the attendees into a violent leftist rent-a-mob.

They never show recent pics of the ~30yo nasty blob because it would naturally repulse the public, so they show old pics of her looking halfway decent. Similar to the Trayvon Martin farce.

For some reason this heart attack death is always brought up and memorialized as a major problem of hate and domestic terrorism in our country, while five policemen shot dead in cold blood at a Black Lies Matter march is memory-holed.

You cunts who constantly cuck-signal against "white supremacist kkk nazis" to show what good goys you are, are following the cuckservative playbook. Instead being a little cowardly supplicant playing by the enemies' moral code; start attacking the head and heart of the Beast.

for example, you don't denounce violence against the despicable filth rioting in the streets, you say "They deserved it. They shouldn't have been there. They shouldn't be protesting against America and God. and if you support these scum, you shouldn't be here either."

Blogger tz August 17, 2018 5:20 PM  

Zmirak NAILS IT and explains the scam

Remember Bernie Madoff turned himself in - if he didn't he'd likely be dead along with his offspring.

Blogger tz August 17, 2018 5:26 PM  

One of the things Zmirak points out indirectly is that the elite have created high time preference because there is no alternative.

If you are going to be pillaged, you won't save. If they are going to cut down your trees, you won't plant any, especially if you will not live to walk in its shade. We had Union blue collar seniority which selected for those who would stay as long as possible which capped bad behavior - last hired first fired, or laid off. We had companies concerned about the next decade, not the next quarter (note Trump wants to end quarterly reports!). Now interest rates are near zero, and inflation can eat into value at any time. Taxing low time preference gets less of it.

It makes the low time preference cultures happy but high-time preference cultures are stressed - often to death.

Blogger English Tom August 17, 2018 5:28 PM  

@Dire Badger

Fiat currency.

And the debt accumulated in fiat currency that is impossible to pay back (eventually).

Blogger tuberman August 17, 2018 5:33 PM  

Noah B The Savage Gardener wrote:"The .001% have plans and resources in place."

Those bunkers can serve double duty as tombs.


These bunkers in the USA have went BOOM last November, and half way into December. They have to leave USA now to bunker up.

Blogger Lurker August 17, 2018 5:36 PM  

"There is a severe shortage of skilled labor."

What do you expect with boomertards at the helm for the last 40 years? Planning, prudence or mentorship? LOL.

Blogger pyrrhus August 17, 2018 5:49 PM  

"These bunkers in the USA have went BOOM last November, and half way into December. They have to leave USA now to bunker up."

Indeed, there has been an explosion of interest in foreign boltholes for the privileged classes, with New Zealand being a heavy focus of interest...Many, like Buffet, have bought private islands, but the insecurity of that option is all too apparent.
I personally would choose northern Italy if I could get citizenship...

Blogger pyrrhus August 17, 2018 5:52 PM  

@2 Define "skilled labor"...A lot of highly qualified engineers are looking for work, as are software engineers and developers...Which facts say that you are full of it...

Blogger Unknown August 17, 2018 5:57 PM  

Sorry, pyrrhus, you are the one that is full of it. You think I would post in here with my facts not straight??

"Strong Beginnings. In fact, even for a software engineer just starting out, the financial climate is very good. ... Software engineers face a 3.6 percent unemployment rate, and are thus only half as likely to be jobless as the general populace with an overall current unemployment rate of 7.3 percent.May 21, 2018"

Blogger Unknown August 17, 2018 6:08 PM  

“There’s never been a better time to be a software engineer,” said Bischke. “There are more high-growth companies looking for top engineering talent than ever before, and there are nowhere near enough qualified candidates to fill all of their open roles. Because of this, companies are forced to pay a premium (and that’s putting it lightly) to acquire the top talent that is out there.”

Blogger VFM #7634 August 17, 2018 6:10 PM  

1. There is not an oversupply of labor due to automation. There is a severe shortage of skilled labor. For the first time ever, there are more job openings than there are eligible workers to fill them.

@Unknown
The perceived "shortage" tends to be self-inflicted, since employers tend to demand preexisting skills and experience according to a 431-bullet-point checklist rather than provide on-the-job training.

Of course, this has also been used as an excuse to import H1B Indians.

Blogger Unknown August 17, 2018 6:11 PM  

"May 29, 2018 - The unemployment rate for people with at least a bachelor's degree in “architecture and engineering” occupations was only 1.5% the first quarter of 2018, according to the estimates from Department of Labor data. And for “all occupations,” the unemployment for individuals with at least a bachelor's degree was 2.3%."

Blogger VFM #7634 August 17, 2018 6:12 PM  

Excessive labor supply, thanks to feminism sending all the women into the job market to displace men but not understanding how that would destroy the family unit.

@3
Women get hired much more quickly than men. There's a quite egregious example
here.

Blogger Unknown August 17, 2018 6:13 PM  

Remember, this guy Turchin is arguing that there is an oversupply of labor that has recently become more acute. You guys really want to back him up on that? Just admit he is full of shit and move on...

Blogger VFM #7634 August 17, 2018 6:14 PM  

@24 Unknown
You can't go by the official unemployment rate. Recent graduates still have to send out hundreds of applications, and they're unlikely to be counted as "unemployed" because they need to actually be collecting unemployment benefits. I'm surprised there are people who still don't realize the official unemployment numbers are BS.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 17, 2018 6:25 PM  

Unknown wrote:You think I would post in here with my facts not straight??


It's never slowed you down before.

Blogger Don't Call Me Len August 17, 2018 6:37 PM  

Cville was a completely media-fueled non-event, but somehow many people still believe it was of cataclysmic importance. They're not even transmitting the right message about it: eat less and exercise more.

Blogger Peter August 17, 2018 6:39 PM  

Interesting... "unknown" .. there is a group of formal aerospace/mil/defense software programmers that seem to have a hard time finding work.. but in general its still a good career.

I think the view Turchin is pushing is valid in general but been wrong for the recent short term/time periods... there is a general trend to do more with less people, and thats been a countering effect for the last several decades and explains one part of why wages have stayed flat...fundimental benefit of capitalism is that its always pushing effiency improvemwnt .. but there are limit to this improvement and we are approaching that... Turchin is talking about pressure between haves and have nots and the limits there are in how much the elites can screw the non elites before something happens....

Blogger Unknown August 17, 2018 6:39 PM  

VFM#7634:

Besides the stats, I also live in the real world where I talk to people all the time who tell me there is a labor shortage; they cannot find qualified employees. These places range from manufacturers to nursing homes. So, I can fight the anecdote fight on this subject also if that is the arena you choose.

But if you guys wanna believe there is an acute oversupply of labor, then go ahead and believe that. I usually agree with the quotes that Vox puts up, this one just struck me as really stupid. Many other reasons that we are headed for crisis, this was just not well thought out.

This is Boetain, shout out to all the old-school people here. Haven't posted in years, but still lurk around. Makes me select a profile, can't just put in a name anymore.

Cheers.

Blogger Avalanche August 17, 2018 6:52 PM  

@23 "The perceived "shortage" tends to be self-inflicted, since employers tend to demand preexisting skills and experience according to a 431-bullet-point checklist rather than provide on-the-job training."

On the machine shop's other hand, there is neither time nor money nor available staff to teach or mentor an apprentice. Even the kids coming out of Vo-Tech / MFG college do NOT have the necessary skills to come in and pick up work -- and they are very badly needed! Between the hard and tight deadlines of customers, the high demand for production and low pricing, thus thin margins, no shop can afford to take on what is essentially dead-weight till the kid gets trained up enough to be useful -- especially not when, once trained, the kid deserts the shop for a higher wage.

Blogger Ken Prescott August 17, 2018 6:56 PM  

I do not support fiat currency. I do, however, support Lamborghini and Ferrari currencies.

Blogger The Observer August 17, 2018 7:01 PM  

Excessive labor supply, thanks to feminism sending all the women into the job market to displace men but not understanding how that would destroy the family unit.

Oh no, it was very deliberate. It's not as if feminism never happened before, and repeatedly to boot.

Many, like Buffet, have bought private islands, but the insecurity of that option is all too apparent.

It's like they imagine pirates are a thing of the past. A wealthy ex-elite's hideout might be able to take out a landing crew or two with their security, but the Somalis just have to get lucky once.

Blogger L August 17, 2018 7:03 PM  

A oversupply of labor in the US can be corrected by deporting non-Americans.

Blogger VFM #7634 August 17, 2018 7:13 PM  

Besides the stats, I also live in the real world where I talk to people all the time who tell me there is a labor shortage; they cannot find qualified employees. These places range from manufacturers to nursing homes. So, I can fight the anecdote fight on this subject also if that is the arena you choose.

@31 Unknown
Funny how all the people you're talking to IRL are employers, not job-seekers...

@32 Avalanche
Again, my point above: employers are demanding people have skills and experience that nobody has any means of actually getting.

Blogger Al K. Annossow August 17, 2018 7:18 PM  

This simplified comment about labor supply hides what he has described in the past as being about hope for the future - hope that oneself and children can have a better life and maybe move up a class level.

In the 1920's, two 50 year cycles ago, elites gave in by reluctantly allowing unions. But it was bloody. The battle of Blair Mountain comes to mind.

Immigration with its wage suppression and cultural devastation removes hope. Trump's policies give back some of the hope for the future, thus reducing the fuel on the bonfire of violence.

Blogger Didas Kalos August 17, 2018 7:22 PM  

Agreed

Blogger VFM #7634 August 17, 2018 7:26 PM  

IMHO, what is badly needed is some kind of efficient way of getting young and/or chronically underemployed people matched with these seemingly unfillable jobs, and then trained for them. I'm sure huge numbers would benefit, since many have no idea what they'd even be suitable for nowadays.

Blogger Al K. Annossow August 17, 2018 7:31 PM  

Perhaps this round of labor-elite resolution will play out as more on-the-job training.

Blogger LP999-16 August 17, 2018 7:33 PM  

25 Indeed I was shortsighted.

Helicopter rides, they have to go home considering the connection from the 1965 immigration change.

Blogger Damelon Brinn August 17, 2018 7:54 PM  

It looks like there's both a labor shortage and a jobs shortage. I know a couple local employers who are honestly having trouble finding skilled workers. I tell them to offer more, but the thing is, they can't get many people to apply in the first place, to find out what they're offering. They could get tons of applicants if they ran an ad offering $500/hour, but they wouldn't necessarily be qualified.

It's like all the outsourcing and immigration and lack of investment in recent years has broken the labor market, at least temporarily. It's going to take employers time to figure out how much they need to offer now to compete domestically, and it's going to take time for Americans to get trained in fields that we'd been taught to avoid because they were done by cheap foreigners now. The "jobs Americans won't do" narrative has distorted things in ways that aren't automatically fixed just because an employer wants to hire some Americans.

Blogger tz August 17, 2018 8:09 PM  

@42 - BS. First, they may be looking under the streetlight when they need to be looking in the alley even if the light is better. Second, they are looking for a "unicorn" - we need experience with zippypqulamz as a requirement - 10 years!. Third, they may be insisting on something like a Degree. Fourth, which locality? I can do almost anything remotely, we can use vidconference, and the rest, but NO! you have to be in this cubicle! And use the inferior tools rather than those you have in your shop!.

Try fishing in the trout stream, not dragging your hook through the sand.

Blogger Aeoli Pera August 17, 2018 8:23 PM  

Damelon is correct, there is both a labor shortage and a jobs shortage, due to the problem of pricing in socialism as described by Mises, which causes gross mismatches between supply and demand. The only way to fix this is for individual elders to massively invest in young degenerates at significant personal cost, in ways that were not done for them, and often with little hope of success in any given case. The only worldview which can support such a self-sacrificial effort of unrequited charity by the individual on behalf of the group's future is Christianity.

God help us, because we need him as much as any nation on earth in history has ever needed him. We are Nineveh without a Jonah.

Blogger Daniel Paul Grech Pereira August 17, 2018 8:38 PM  

*ODs on black pills*

Blogger James Dixon August 17, 2018 8:53 PM  

> For the first time ever, there are more job openings than there are eligible workers to fill them.

As I've had to point out before, that simply isn't true. Yes, there are more jobs openings than there are people on the unemployment rolls, but there are a lot of people who have given up looking for work.

The key figure is the employment-population ratio. See https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS12300000

> Indeed, there has been an explosion of interest in foreign boltholes for the privileged classes, with New Zealand being a heavy focus of interest

I understand NZ has now banned the sale of homes to foreigners. I can't provide a source though.

> You think I would post in here with my facts not straight??

Your facts may be straight. Your understanding of them is woefully inadequate.

> "for individuals with at least a bachelor's degree"

And what percentage of the working population has at least a bachelor's degree? No, I'm not going to bother to look it up. You're the one who said you had your facts straight.

> they cannot find qualified employees.

Because they're unwilling to train them. If your resume doesn't have every i dotted and every t crossed to their satisfaction, they're not interested.

> But if you guys wanna believe there is an acute oversupply of labor,

Acute, no. But the epr I mentioned above was 64.7% in 2000. It's now 60.5%. Up over half a percent since Trump took office. But that's still over 4% of the working population not working who were a mere 18 years ago.

> there is neither time nor money nor available staff to teach or mentor an apprentice.

Then they deal with being short handed. There are tradeoffs to everything. But don't complain to me about the decision they've made.

> ...especially not when, once trained, the kid deserts the shop for a higher wage.

And whose fault is that? Why wasn't the company that trained him offering him that wage?

Blogger Random #57 August 17, 2018 8:53 PM  

@43 tz:

but NO! you have to be in this cubicle!

You should be so lucky, open offices are now the rage, driven by false cost saving, nonsense about collaboration (according to a recent study they prompt people to talk face to face less and use email more for business), and the perceived need by founders to show investors all their happy employees hard at work.

Blogger John Calla August 17, 2018 9:12 PM  

@22 "There’s never been a better time to be a software engineer," said Bischke. "There are more high-growth companies looking for top engineering talent than ever before, and there are nowhere near enough qualified candidates to fill all of their open roles. Because of this, companies are forced to pay a premium (and that’s putting it lightly) to acquire the top talent that is out there."

Who the hell's Bischke and why do I care what he thinks?

Blogger VFM #7634 August 17, 2018 9:16 PM  

@John Calla
Or maybe they should offer the lower wage to the less-qualified scabs who'd they'd turn their noses up at, and allow them to get experience and ascend the ladder. But no...

Blogger Freddy August 17, 2018 9:19 PM  

OT update on Energy Weapons used in Genoa bridge hit. Humm? https://youtu.be/a23agUQi3vg

Blogger Snidely Whiplash August 17, 2018 9:23 PM  

Avalanche wrote:no shop can afford to take on what is essentially dead-weight till the kid gets trained up enough to be useful -- especially not when, once trained, the kid deserts the shop for a higher wage.
So you're just preparing to go bankrupt when you lose your employees? Or are you planning on poaching those higher-priced machinists when they've learned on someone else's dime. You know, if you offered them a regular schedule of pay increase as their skills mature, maybe they wouldn't feel the need to move on from your low-ball hack shop.

Blogger Jack Amok August 17, 2018 11:04 PM  

Besides the stats, I also live in the real world...

Live in whatever world floats your boat, but before you make an even bigger ass of yourself, look up the workforce participation stats James Dixon points you at. When 40% of your population isn't working, you have a surplus of labor, regardless of what is causing it.

Turchin's theory isn't about employment law, affirmative action, feminism, or even immigration. It just says there's an oversupply of labor, leading to an increase in economic inequality, which creates both a rise in grievances and an overproduction of elites. The overproduction of elites (meaning, too many people who think they're hot stuff and not enough VIP slots to fit them all in) creates intra-elite competition as they jockey for power. This leads to a breakdown in cooperation at all levels, thus the middle-high severity outcomes.

We have a long, long term trend of rising income inequality, decreasing labor force participation, and labor oversupply. Trump has made some positive progress slowing or slightly reversing those trends, but nothing structural has changed yet to create a lasting reversal.

Blogger wreckage August 17, 2018 11:12 PM  

Hm. See there's a mistake in considering corporate tax to be equivalent to elite tax. Corporate tax broadly, very broadly, is a production tax; it's a tax on the middle classes. In this case Trump's strategy of reducing corporate taxes and raising trade barriers is aimed squarely at importing capital and capital assets to match and reverse the labour oversupply.

This is also the aim of closing the borders and reducing skilled visas.

The next thing he should do is get rid of the taxation of non-resident citizens.

I'm tellin' ya, Trump is all over it.

Blogger Frank Brady August 17, 2018 11:48 PM  

The issue really is not that complicated. The uneducated, low IQ, unteachable population cohort is expanding at the very moment the "jobs" that cohort might previously have held are being automated out of existence. Think $15 per hour minimum wages and McDonalds order kiosks.

Blogger DonReynolds August 18, 2018 12:03 AM  

Unknown wrote:"May 29, 2018 - The unemployment rate for people with at least a bachelor's degree in “architecture and engineering” occupations was only 1.5% the first quarter of 2018, according to the estimates from Department of Labor data. And for “all occupations,” the unemployment for individuals with at least a bachelor's degree was 2.3%."

Listen.
95 MILLION Americans have been pushed out of the labor force and are not counted as "unemployed". Millions of Americans are actually counted as "unemployed" under the new Obama definitions, but it does not reflect
the reality on the ground.

There is no labor shortage in the USA and there has not been in many years.

Blogger OneWingedShark August 18, 2018 12:14 AM  

Unknown wrote:What the hell is this guy talking about?

1. There is not an oversupply of labor due to automation. There is a severe shortage of skilled labor. For the first time ever, there are more job openings than there are eligible workers to fill them.

2. There have been no deep cuts in the amount of taxes the elites pay. In 2018, the top 20% of income earners will pay 87% of income tax, which is an even higher share than 2017.

We have plenty of real reasons for the coming crisis, no need to fabricate reasons.



tz wrote:Zmirak NAILS IT and explains the scam

Remember Bernie Madoff turned himself in - if he didn't he'd likely be dead along with his offspring.

Thank you for posting this, it was a good article. The 2008 bailouts were terrible, but the whole bailout mentality was actually started years before: when the government bailed out the airlines after 11 Sep.

This video is a fun one describing the difference between Keynesian and Austrian economics.

Lurker wrote:"There is a severe shortage of skilled labor."

What do you expect with boomertards at the helm for the last 40 years? Planning, prudence or mentorship? LOL.

That's an excellent point. The boomers have done a really good job of stripmining the jobmarket, changing the corporate-culture to one that's got an extreme antipathy towards training; and then they have the audacity to lecture the younger generations for not being able to get those 10 years experience required "Entry Level" jobs.

VFM #7634 wrote:1. There is not an oversupply of labor due to automation. There is a severe shortage of skilled labor. For the first time ever, there are more job openings than there are eligible workers to fill them.

@Unknown

The perceived "shortage" tends to be self-inflicted, since employers tend to demand preexisting skills and experience according to a 431-bullet-point checklist rather than provide on-the-job training.

Of course, this has also been used as an excuse to import H1B Indians.

Absolutely correct. The situation's so bad that I was told by a Technical Writer jobhunting that his interview example work was to write letters of recommendation for H1B packets; IOW, the company using job interviews to do the paperwork for importing more foreigners.

This book, was an excellent little read that illustrates and details just how unwilling employers in general are to invest in employees; the fascinating thing about the whole situation is how employers complain about lack of loyalty, yet refuse to show any to their employees. (eg long probationary periods, the "culture fit" dismissal excuse, the whole "train your [foreign] replacement" trope.)

Blogger Robert Pinkerton August 18, 2018 1:40 AM  

Turchin calling Mr. Trump "counter-elite," reminds me that, in the Greek-speaking eastern Mediterranean of Classical times, the colloquial definition of a "Tyrant" was an illegal dictator in a constitutional order that provided for legal dictatorship under various causes, or a populist dictator in the aristocratic perspective.

Just how much of PTB/Establishment hating on the President, is actually class-bigotry?

Blogger FreedAtlas August 18, 2018 1:51 AM  

4 year degree and completed a .net bootcamp. 12 years as a coder. However was out of work for 8 years.

No one will hire me. Only got 1 interview in past year.

Labor shortage is a myth.

Blogger wreckage August 18, 2018 3:07 AM  

@58 retrain as a plumber.

Blogger Jack Amok August 18, 2018 3:23 AM  

So you're just preparing to go bankrupt when you lose your employees? Or are you planning on poaching those higher-priced machinists when they've learned on someone else's dime. You know, if you offered them a regular schedule of pay increase as their skills mature, maybe they wouldn't feel the need to move on from your low-ball hack shop.

Real-world story here. I took over the engineering team at a studio where they were really struggling, despite having almost all high-paid senior programmers who'd been successful in the past.

Hmmmmm, Fox Butterfield alert.

That was the problem. All these guys were demotivated and stagnant. Morale and productivity both sucked. None of them could progress in their careers at the company because they were all peers. No opportunities for natural leadership. They'd been reasonably productive in previous jobs. A couple had even been rock-stars. But they were complete mutts when I took over, unable to even keep the build off the floor for more than a day.

Of course some of them left via normal attrition. When they left, I'd replace one senior with two entry-level guys. Then I'd make sure the best senior guys - the ones I wanted to keep - had one of the entry level guys to mentor. Rinse, repeat.

Took about 18 months, but the shop is a much different place now. High energy, productive, good morale, and the entry level hires are progressing - one has already been promoted to a lead, and a second is - a year into his programming career and not even with a comp sci degree - a total rock-star. I've hired a couple of mid-level guys in the meantime who provided some needed energy at the upper levels, but the place has a much better spread of experience levels and it creates a far, far better dynamic.

The old guys are far more energized. They have people to mentor, and that really does matter to good workers. If they take pride in their work, they like having the chance to pass on what they've learned - it makes them feel good and makes work more psychically rewarding. Plus, the kids are smart and hungry, and it lights a bit of a fire under the geezers since they don't want the rookies showing them up.

But I do understand the challenge - now I'm arguing with the accountants and HR mucks that the cheap entry level guy we hired last year deserves a 20% raise because he's just that good and someone else would gladly hire him away at that price and think they were getting a bargain.

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey August 18, 2018 3:26 AM  

@31
1. Look at trends in family income vs. productivity since about 1974
2. Reconcile those with your "labor shortage" canard
3. Does the term "market clearing price" mean anything to you?

Blogger Franz Lyonheart August 18, 2018 4:20 AM  

2. There have been no deep cuts in the amount of taxes the elites pay. In 2018, the top 20% of income earners will pay 87% of income tax, which is an even higher share than 2017.

The top income earners aren't generally The Elite. There's those that already are wealthy but unproductive (little town Nil income tax). Then there's those who earn their revenue in ways that don't count as income (offshore, venture capital funds, etc). Finally, a third group of The Elite are those who consume state + federal taxes, rather than (net) pay them (public sector, various state and federal agencies, subsidised universities and academia, etc).

Blogger Zander Stander August 18, 2018 5:32 AM  

Didn't his son suicide?

Blogger Paul M August 18, 2018 6:56 AM  

tz wrote:It will be interesting since the doomsday bunkers are almost universally in Trumpland, surrounded by people who will have far more ammo than their security services,

How quickly they forget Waco!

Blogger JACIII August 18, 2018 7:47 AM  

Set up a pile driver over the underground sites. Run it 24 seven. They'll come out screaming in a week.

Blogger Troy Lee Messer August 18, 2018 8:31 AM  

F*** these employers. They whine about costs bit have a room of harpies called Human Resources with "compliance officers.". Meanwhile there is a small handful of the productive class (read: men) that the make-work class is always trying to squeeze a few extra percent of productivity to justify thier jobs.

Employers damn well exercise thier ar-will rights as they make you sign an arbitration agreement. Due Process,. F*** you little man. Then demand "passion". And piss down your back and tell you it is raining with myths like "mulit-tasking."

/Rant over

Blogger Blunt Force August 18, 2018 8:31 AM  

@ #2 Unknown

This

The ‘Real’ America: 21.5%
https://www.theburningplatform.com/tag/unemployment/

Blogger Theophilus Chilton August 18, 2018 11:00 AM  

I'm glad I'm not the only one around here who follows Turchin.

He is probably the most important yet unknown scholar in the social sciences today.

Blogger spacehabitats August 18, 2018 12:57 PM  

Income tax is inherently unfair in that it does punish productivity while it completely ignores wealth.

STEM jobs have been preferentially given to H1B immigrants while highly "skilled" native born Euro-Americans have ended up unemployed.

Blogger Brick Hardslab August 18, 2018 1:01 PM  

Employers always complain about

Blogger Tars Tarkusz August 18, 2018 1:21 PM  

Everyone is talking about unemployment and underemployment, but our problems are way deeper than economics. While it might be painful in the relatively short term, the economics could be fixed. People can get training to fill these jobs and wages can rise.

But how do you fix a society where it is normal and unremarkable to have children in a library being read to by a man dressed as a female demon? Our young men have testosterone levels similar to an elderly man. Where women are becoming more masculine and where woman are not even producing enough children to repopulate the nation.
Worse, these things are not really spread out, they are concentrated in the urban centers of the country. We have multiple people living very different lives with very different social attitudes.
Nevertheless, until the federal government is severely weakened, there is very little chance of civil war that even remotely resembles the first one.
The risks are not evenly spread. People in the cities are much more exposed to lawlessness and rioting than the rest of the country. IMHO, they are the weakest link and they are what would fall first.

Blogger DonReynolds August 18, 2018 3:09 PM  

JACIII wrote:Set up a pile driver over the underground sites. Run it 24 seven. They'll come out screaming in a week.

Too slow and expensive.
None of the underground bunkers have their own oxygen, so there are air ducts to the surface nearby.
That is where the raw water is piped to flood the bunker.
If you are in a big hurry, use gasoline instead of water.

A cave is a grave.
Everyone knows that, except the people who go into bunkers for safety.

Blogger DonReynolds August 18, 2018 7:50 PM  

I believe it was Gandhi, the Indian patriot, who pointed out that people everywhere would prefer their own crummy and inefficient government to a perfect government by foreigners.

What the Leftist Liberals are doing these days is a very good job of demonstrating to a large portion of the country that they are themselves FOREIGN, even though they share the same nationality as the rest of Americans, and they represent the interests of foreigners....both the ones who have already arrived and the ones who have yet to arrive.

Clearly, their purpose is to subvert and distort the historic American nation and lacking sufficient numbers to dominate by the ballot box, they intend to artificially boost and inflate their numbers with foreign citizens and outright voter fraud.

The question that remains is....are their foreign legions willing to fight and die along side them, for the promise by Leftist Liberals that they will inherit this country? This is an important question and they cannot change their mind later. If the fight begins with the foreign legions fighting on the same side as the Leftist Liberals, then they will not be deported. They will be treated the same as the Leftist Liberals.

Blogger Ominous Cowherd August 19, 2018 11:30 AM  

Tars Tarkusz wrote:While it might be painful in the relatively short term, the economics could be fixed. People can get training to fill these jobs and wages can rise.

Not generally true. A person with an IQ of 100 cannot be trained fo a job that requires an IQ of 115. Half of American Whites have an IQ of 100 or less. Half of American Blacks have an IQ of 85 or less. More that half of us cannot retrain for work that requires original thought and creative cognition.

Blogger James Dixon August 19, 2018 10:38 PM  

> Income tax is inherently unfair in that it does punish productivity while it completely ignores wealth.

All taxes are "unfair", as the government has no automatic right to anyone's money.

The most reasonable taxes would be something on the order of a 1% tax on all monetary transactions with incorporated entities (as the government is tasked with creating and maintaining a stable currency. Yes, you can laugh now.) plus incoming and outgoing tariffs.

Post a Comment

Rules of the blog
Please do not comment as "Anonymous". Comments by "Anonymous" will be spammed.

<< Home

Newer Posts Older Posts