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Tuesday, September 25, 2018

Russia responds

The strength of the Russian response to the shooting down of their reconnaissance plane has surprised even the Saker:
Today Defense Minster Shoigu announced measures which went far beyond what I had hoped for. Specifically, Shoigu has announced that Russia will
  • Supply S-300 air defense systems (with a 250km range) to the Syrians in the next two weeks.
  • Russia will deliver advanced automated air defense management systems which will *dramatically* increase the Syrian air defense capabilities and prevent future “friendly fire” incidents.
  • Russia will use her electronic warfare capabilities to suppress satellite navigation, onboard radar systems and communications of warplanes attacking targets on Syrian territory in the regions over the waters of the Mediterranean Sea bordering with Syria.
This is a very flexible and elegant solution for the following reasons:
  1. It establishes a de facto air exclusion zone over Syria, but not a de jure one. Thus, the Russians will have the flexibility to decide on a nation by nation and aircraft by aircraft basis which aircraft should be suppressed/engaged and which ones to only track and monitor. This will give Russia a very powerful negotiating position with all the actors of this war.
  2. It goes without saying that while these new capabilities will be deployed in Syria in response to the Israeli actions, they will also dramatically boost the Syrian capabilities against any potential aggressors including the USA and US client states. The S-300s will make it possible for the Syrian to detect and even track the Israeli aircraft right after their take-off and while still in Israeli air space.
  3. While the Russians have not indicated which automated air defense management system they plan to deliver to Syria, it is likely that this is one which is typically used to control the engagement of S-300 and Buk air defense systems, the Poliana D-4. The delivery of this system will dramatically increase the air defense capabilities of the Russian task force in Syria making it much harder for Neocon à la Bolton to target Russian forces.
So much for US/Israeli air supremacy in Syria. The interesting thing about this is that it was announced by Shoigu, not Putin, which may indicate that the Russian military is getting tired of Putin's temporizing in response to provocations.

Poking the bear is seldom wise.

Labels:

44 Comments:

Blogger Chippewa September 25, 2018 12:44 PM  

Went to check out /r/Israel, they are predictable laughing with bravado and saying they will embarrass the Russians.

Methinks they need a healthy reality check.

Blogger Attila is my bro September 25, 2018 1:05 PM  

>>Methinks they need a healthy reality check.

Doesn't matter what they need. [Yakov Smirnoff voice:] In post-Soviet Russia, you don't need healthy check - healthy reality check come to you!

Blogger Silly but True September 25, 2018 1:13 PM  

Russia’s had it with Russians dying in Syria. They’re the only one with any legitimate reason to be within long-time ally Syria’s territory.

It would be one thing if US reasonably followed AUMF and had been bombing just ISIS and all Qaeda in Syria to stop terrorism rather than continue Obama fecklessness and trying to shine Russia on by arming al Qaeda terrorists and defending ISIS to inflict maximum pain to Syrians.

Blogger Looking Glass September 25, 2018 1:18 PM  

Shoigu might have announced it because Trump was at the UN today, and Trump & Putin are in the de-escalation factions.

I'm starting to think there's an outline of a deal for how things will go in Syria, but I'm also not sure anyone can confidently explain who backs which groups. Also a question if the Central Ignoramus Agency has gotten reigned in.

Blogger Colin Flaherty's baby momma September 25, 2018 1:18 PM  

"Syria attacks Russia, accidental friendly fire" false flag was a flop.
What will they try next?

The People of the Lie, whose existence and survival depend on deceit, who suffer in proportion to goyim knowing the truth, are in big trouble in the age of information.

What we can expect for sure is more subterfuge, censorship, shut it down, and poisoning of wells.

Blogger Unknown September 25, 2018 1:26 PM  

his is Gog and Magog!!

/judeo-Christian

Blogger Matthew McDaniel September 25, 2018 1:29 PM  

Rise of the Third Rome.

Blogger Azimus September 25, 2018 1:35 PM  

It pains me to confess it, but Russia is the only sane actor in the theater right now. They have shown restraint, maturity in diplomacy, and even their military responses are defensive in nature. Juxtapose that to Bibi, or Erdogan, or John Bolton, who all sound like a pre-pubescent von Ribbentrop having a tantrum...

Blogger Nostromo September 25, 2018 1:35 PM  

Me thinks all the twitterpation about Russian air defense systems could be even more overblown than American ADF's. Gotta realize every industrial military complex sells ever bigger, and better weapons. Whether those weapons actually work in the field is a totally different scenario.

Blogger pyrrhus September 25, 2018 1:56 PM  

@8 Absolutely. Syria is a product of Israeli expansionism and Qatari greed, abetted by the Anglo-Zionist deep state. Now the generals have had enough of Israel, and the US, and their lying and violating agreements. Good.

Blogger tz September 25, 2018 1:57 PM  

Don't poke the bear. You won't like it when he wakes up.

Blogger pyrrhus September 25, 2018 1:58 PM  

@9 There's an easy way to find out...Israel can fly some combat mission against these air defenses and find out how they do...Doubt that's going to happen.

Blogger pyrrhus September 25, 2018 2:00 PM  

Israel is pretty reluctant to take losses, unless they are US losses...

Blogger pyrrhus September 25, 2018 2:03 PM  

Mattis has the right American strategy--send in the girls!

Blogger InformationMerchant September 25, 2018 2:04 PM  

They walked right into this. Turkey shot down a Russian plane and admitted it, not much wiggle room for Russia.

Shoot down a Russian plane and blame Syrian friendly fire and the Russians had better upgrade that equipment to prevent further friendly fire.

Giving them an out seems like a bad decision, but easy for me to say that.

Blogger CarpeOro September 25, 2018 2:28 PM  

@9
Since WWII, big weapon systems out of Russia have been a mixed bag - some good, some bad, just like the USA. The critical point for any of them has usually been the personnel using them. It will boil down to how many "advisers" will be onsite with them more likely than not. Don't rule out the quality because it says "made in Russia". Hell, a good portion of the electronics in US systems may just be sourced in Asia.

Blogger Crew September 25, 2018 2:33 PM  

Strange that they would announce what they are going to do rather than doing it and then announcing what they have done.

Blogger sykes.1 September 25, 2018 2:44 PM  

The worst thing that could happen to Israel and the US/NATO is a hard right military coup d'etat that removed Putin and put a hard line nationalist in power.

Blogger Francis Parker Yockey September 25, 2018 2:48 PM  

It establishes a de facto air exclusion zone over Syria, but not a de jure one. Thus, the Russians will have the flexibility to decide on a nation by nation and aircraft by aircraft basis which aircraft should be suppressed/engaged and which ones to only track and monitor.

@8 Azimus
It pains me to confess it, but Russia is the only sane actor in the theater right now. They have shown restraint, maturity in diplomacy, and even their military responses are defensive in nature. Juxtapose that to Bibi, or Erdogan, or John Bolton, who all sound like a pre-pubescent von Ribbentrop having a tantrum...

Yup. Minimal bluster, maximal efficacy, creates a lot of uncertainty for other actors in the region... and they have the ready-made, reasonable-sounding "We have to upgrade the fire control systems to decrease the risk of similar friendly fire incidents in the future" narrative to justify it.

@14 pyrrhus
Mattis has the right American strategy--send in the girls!

It's actually "Send in those who 'identify' as girls..."

What are you, some kind of tranniephobe or something?

Blogger Jackson Peds September 25, 2018 3:09 PM  

Faggotry removal on aisle #20, please.

Blogger Azimus September 25, 2018 3:41 PM  

with his fantasy that Russia could handle Israel or the United States.

Hezbollah, basically Fight Club for Lebanese teens, embarrassed the IDF and all their billions of defense spending with cheap weapons whose technology was available at the end of WW2. And this was just 2006.

If Fight Club, which is a client, of a client, of Russia can beat the IDF, I'm pretty sure the Russians can beat IDF.

Blogger Robert What? September 25, 2018 3:41 PM  

Candidate Trump realized that the US has no business being in Syria. President Trump seems to not be so sure. What has changed? Has Trump just been worn down by the NeoCon "Israel First" war mongers?

Blogger Dirk Manly September 25, 2018 4:01 PM  

@24

"If Fight Club, which is a client, of a client, of Russia can beat the IDF, I'm pretty sure the Russians can beat IDF."

Plus the Russian army is bigger than the entire population of Isreal.

Blogger Crew September 25, 2018 4:10 PM  

@28: Well, Russia does not have the capability of sending its whole army to Syria.

What is odd here is that the S300 with four batteries (not sure how many launchers per battery, perhaps 4) costs around $900M.

That is a lot of money, but then there is the training as well.

During setup I imagine Russia will ensure the systems are protected with other anti-air system, but it does tend to increase the tension in the ME.

Blogger Dirk Manly September 25, 2018 4:13 PM  

My point is that if Israel decides to fight a war of attrition against Russia, they will lose, and lose big.

Blogger Dirk Manly September 25, 2018 4:14 PM  

I'm thinking the opposite about stability. If Isreal KNOWS that violating Syrian airspace will result in a very high rate of lost aircraft, they that will lead to stability in and around Syria.

Blogger Crew September 25, 2018 4:15 PM  

@29: Well, that number seems wrong based on other sources:

* S-300PMU-2 - (SA-20B): $200 million per fire unit (6 launchers, 48 missiles, command and support vehicles) (guess based on below)

From here: https://www.military-quotes.com/forum/price-russian-weapons-t98271.html

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 25, 2018 4:36 PM  

Azimus wrote:If Fight Club, which is a client, of a client, of Russia can beat the IDF, I'm pretty sure the Russians can beat IDF.
The Jews have only beaten Russia once, and that was by virtue of leading the Russian Army and hiding behind the guns of Russians. They won't be given that option in the future.

Blogger Crew September 25, 2018 5:06 PM  

Meanwhile, the WaPo doesn't want white South Africans going to Russia, it seems:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/amphtml/world/europe/why-russia-is-wooing-south-africas-white-farmers/2018/09/23/3308a7c4-b6a3-11e8-ae4f-2c1439c96d79_story.html

Blogger Frank Lee September 25, 2018 5:34 PM  

Crew wrote:Strange that they would announce what they are going to do rather than doing it and then announcing what they have done.

The fact that the Russians announce it in advance makes the whole thing suspect.

Israel simply won't allow their air superiority over Syria to be compromised (at least while Syria is engaged in a civil war and flooded with terrorists who want Israel's destruction). It will never happen.

The Israels either:

1. Know this is empty Russian bluster.

2. Already have weapons systems that can defeat the new air defences.

3. Will openly destroy the new air defences before they can be put into use.

4. Will covertly sabotage the weapons systems on the ground.

If the Israels can mount an operation into the heart of Iran and steal all their nuclear weapons research, sabotaging a few missile systems in a war torn Syria won't be hard.

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 25, 2018 5:54 PM  

Frank Lee wrote:Israel simply won't allow their air superiority over Syria to be compromised (at least while Syria is engaged in a civil war and flooded with terrorists who want Israel's destruction). It will never happen.


And that is why Israel was literally begging Putin not to allow it, just 3 days ago.
Russia could take out Israel's entire airforce in however long it takes to fly from Russia, plus 20 minutes. Regionally, Israel is strong, because they're up against Arabs. Outside their region, nukes are the only actual defense they have.

Blogger LonestarWhacko September 25, 2018 6:16 PM  

What happens if the Russian air cover ain't that great? Suppose the S-300 is buggy? Israel has the rep for high tech spoofery. What happens when Russian support staff are killed when Israel takes a hard swing at those sites?

The last folks I would listen to is the Marxist press. Anything that the msm says is going to serve their masters.

Blogger Dirk Manly September 25, 2018 6:17 PM  

@38

" The Russians have maybe a couple dozen aircraft and only a handful of air to air fighters and SAMs, both of which could be neutralized fairly easy by the US or Israel. All we have to do is saturate they area and there is nothing the Russians could do about it"

You realize that if target saturation is, say 32 aircraft, and you send 40 that means you're going to lose 32 at least aircraft, and at most 8 come home -- with or without accomplishing their mission.

The tactic of overwhelming defenses by saturation is extremely expensive, and can only be used a few times before you have completely destroyed your own force.

Blogger Dirk Manly September 25, 2018 6:20 PM  

"If the Israels can mount an operation into the heart of Iran and steal all their nuclear weapons research, sabotaging a few missile systems in a war torn Syria won't be hard."

If you think that the alertness level of the typical person during an ongoing conflict is no higher than that of a person in a land which is currently not in any sort of overt conflict, then you don't understand human nature.

Doing that sort of operation inside a seemingly peaceful Iran is much easier than during it in the middle of a conflict in Syria.

Blogger VD September 25, 2018 6:22 PM  

Haxo Angmark and Stephen Davenport, both of you were previously banned. FFS, go comment somewhere else! Your contributions are not wanted here.

This is not hard to understand.

Blogger VD September 25, 2018 6:24 PM  

Also, Dirk and Snidely, if you two can't stop responding to trolls every single fucking time, your comments are going to be nuked on sight too.

Knock it off. Everyone else can manage it, why is it that it's always the two of you responding to them?

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 25, 2018 8:14 PM  

VD wrote:why is it that it's always ... you responding to them?
The evidence would suggest that I'm hot-headed.
3/8 Irish - check
Red hair - check
Curmudgeon - check

Now get off my lawn!

Blogger Brett baker September 25, 2018 8:39 PM  

According to Strategy Page, the Russians didn't sell the S-300 because they were worried the Israeli military could take out the system. Don't know if they are accurate, but it seems reasonable. Then again, if they shoot down several Israeli aircraft before they're destroyed.....

Blogger Snidely Whiplash September 25, 2018 9:25 PM  

What if the objective is not to shoot down Israeli planes, but to use the advanced radar and target tracking systems of the S-300 to reveal exactly what Israel is doing in Syria?

Blogger Crew September 25, 2018 10:21 PM  

@38: Of course the Strategy page could be a deep state tool as well.

Perhaps they were trying to stop the Chinese, Indians, Saudis etc from purchasing the S400 systems.

Blogger English Tom September 25, 2018 10:31 PM  

@Sykes1

Read the book: Russia 2010 and what it means for the world by Daniel Yergin.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother September 25, 2018 11:25 PM  

Obscene Irish

Blogger GammaCatch September 25, 2018 11:43 PM  

Nuts, I'm always hoping for as many dead Muslims as possible. Oh well...

Blogger VD September 26, 2018 6:47 AM  

The evidence would suggest that I'm hot-headed.

Either you will learn self-discipline or discipline will be imposed upon you. Your call.

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