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Friday, November 02, 2018

Darkstream: Blue Wave or Pollster Fiction?



From the transcript of the Darkstream, which I'm glad to report is no longer being linked to strange, creepy kid videos on YouTube.

A lot of people who support Trump, a lot of people who are going to vote Republican, are not going to tell people that. You know, people are beginning to become more comfortable and confident about supporting the God-Emperor because he's been so successful - he has been perfect,  he hasn't built the wall, yet he hasn't drained the swamp yet - but the economy is doing extremely well, he is at least saying a lot of the right things in public. When when people are talking about how, "oh well he hasn't done the necessary, hasn't done this or that," can you imagine George Bush or George W. Bush actually threatening to open fire on immigrants? I mean, he has pushed the Overton Window so far to the right in with just his rhetoric that a lot of us don't even realize this.

If you look at how much he has pushed back against the Obama and liberal Republican alliance it's really incredible. In that interview that I did with Bleeding Cool that was retroactively vanished, one of the things the interviewer noted in an aside that he thought was interesting was that I was no longer saying that Donald Trump is the greatest US president since Calvin Coolidge, that I was saying that he is the greatest president since Andrew Jackson. And he is already though there's a lot that still needs to be done. There's no question there is a lot that needs to be done, but this is a president who has declared himself to be a nationalist, this is a president who has openly declared and correctly declared that the media is the enemy of the people, this is a president who has stated his intention of ending birthright citizenship, these are all major major accomplishments in the Presidential sense. He is using what Teddy Roosevelt called the bully pulpit with a great degree of effectiveness.

You need to keep in mind he doesn't have a cooperative House or Senate. Despite the fact that they are Republican that does not mean that they are on board with the Trump nationalist agenda and so you know, it's really remarkable.

Someone says "a Native American that believes Andrew Jackson was a great president?" He was a great president. He wasn't good for the Cherokees, but you know what, the Cherokees weren't his people. I don't think that that was the right thing to do. I certainly don't think that it was a good thing to do, but when you put against that the fact that he eliminated the first Central Bank of the United States, there is no comparison. What he did for his people was phenomenal. You need to look at and judge leaders by the correct criteria, okay? What Winston Churchill did for the people of Germany was very, very bad, no question, but we don't judge Winston Churchill by what he did for the people of Germany, we judge him by what he did for the people of the United Kingdom of which he was the prime minister at the time. Andrew Jackson should not be judged by what he did to the Cherokee or the other American Indian tribes, he should be judged by what he did for his people,  and I think that I think that Donald Trump is going to be lauded and revered for what he's accomplished already, much less what we hope he will accomplish in the future.

Labels: ,

61 Comments:

Blogger Peaceful Poster November 02, 2018 3:54 PM  

I hope this doesn't interfere with tonight's Darkstream but, if anyone is interested, Sir Steve Bannon is debating faggot David Frum tonight at 7pm Eastern.

You can watch it live here

Blogger tublecane November 02, 2018 4:01 PM  

If you judge Churchill by what he did for the U.K., still bad. Which Churchill basically admitted after the war.

Blogger tublecane November 02, 2018 4:06 PM  

@1- Like most neocon (if not just leftist at this point) NeverTrumpers, Frum is in the untenable position of having to explain the right to liberal MSM consumers after having lost touch with the right. But unlike Kristol, say, he is actually aware of some things. Which is to say he plays dumb.

Blogger John M November 02, 2018 4:18 PM  

@3 I am quite certain Kristol is aware of more things than Frum. Which is why he plays dumber than Frum.

Blogger Johnny November 02, 2018 4:30 PM  

The surprising thing for me about Trump is that he manages to survive his own behavior. As for supporting, I don't see a second choice who could also get elected. He is the man. That's all.

What I would really like to see in the second term, if the politics allow for it, would be some much more aggressive legal action from the Attorney General's office.

Blogger Harris November 02, 2018 4:43 PM  

Amen!

Blogger HoosierHillbilly November 02, 2018 5:06 PM  

@2 If only the Brits had thrown support behind Pethick-Lawrence...would have been so much better off.

Blogger Days of the Broken Arrows November 02, 2018 5:07 PM  

Most people will not tell a pollster they're Republican for fear of retribution. They either lie or don't participate. This isn't conjecture, but things I've actually heard from people. So my guess is that the polls can no longer be counted on.

Blogger Beau November 02, 2018 5:26 PM  

They either lie or don't participate.

A polite campaign volunteer for the local Democrat candidate called the other day. Did a good job of letting me know the candidate's four priorities, then asked my priorities. I responded, "My top priority for the Fall election is innocent until proven guilty. Told him after watching the nauseating trashing of Kavanaugh by Senate Democrats, I've come to the conclusion their party cannot be trusted with power. Asked him to urge his candidate to declare on statewide TV she believes in the American notion of innocent until proven guilty. He said he'd let her know. Told him too that any young man could be instantly guilty if this principle is swept aside. He seemed uncomfortable at that. It was a polite conversation throughout.

Blogger Teleros November 02, 2018 5:33 PM  

OT, but big:

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheRalphRetort/status/1058444521535614976

Ethan Ralph raised $26k for St Jude's charity to fight cancer in kids. Thanks to a WSJ hit piece, YT / St Jude is refunding this money.

Talk about a PR own goal.

Blogger David Ray Milton November 02, 2018 5:38 PM  

I always assume there is a slew in the polls towards Dems not for the aforementioned reasons, but just in thinking about who is taking the time to answer these poll calls. The Right are an industrious people who are likely to often screen their calls.

Which demographics do have the time? The unemployed, the elderly, and housewives.

Blogger Dave November 02, 2018 6:03 PM  

From the transcript of the Darkstream, which I'm glad to report is no longer being linked to strange, creepy kid videos on YouTube.

Ok, but now they're back to recommending videos by strange and creepy Jordan Peterson.

Blogger Edgar Abbey November 02, 2018 6:29 PM  

One thing that always galled me about George W. Bush was that when he lost the House in the midterms, and Nancy Pelosi took over as Speaker, Bush took it hard. There was this televised meeting after the election, and you could tell from body language that Bush was cringing a little in defeat, and Nancy was very triumphant and aggressive in posture. This always galled me, because had I been the one in the Oval Office, my demeanor would have been the opposite of Bush's. My attitude would have been defiant, and my message would have been, "You guys may have won this battle and won the House, but I'm still the President, and I will fight your agenda for the next 2 years tooth and nail with the veto pen and the bully pulpit, and I will make your lives a living hell." Instead, Bush just rolled over like a whipped dog.

If Trump loses the House, I just don't see him cowering and licking his wounds. I see him becoming even more defiant and even more aggressive than before. I see him going toe to toe with whoever the new Democratic Speaker is and letting them know who the alpha dog is.

Blogger Stg58/Animal Mother November 02, 2018 6:34 PM  

...and who the bitch is.

Blogger Dave November 02, 2018 6:37 PM  

James Woods on Alec Baldwin's parking space altercation:

James Woods@RealJamesWoods
Most West Village altercations are resolves with a rapier wit and a friendly reach around. Punching is a bit of an overkill.

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/alec-baldwin-arrested-over-parking-spot-altercation-report



https://twitter.com/RealJamesWoods/status/1058447456294313988

Blogger DonReynolds November 02, 2018 6:49 PM  

Andrew Jackson was a great president and every American Indian should say so.

The Indian Removal Act was passed by the US Congress, not Andrew Jackson. ALL Indians were not relocated, just the ones who wanted to live separately from white society, under Indian law. To preserve and protect tribal government, so they could continue to live as Indians, they were relocated away from the jurisdiction of the state governments....to where there was no state government.

Indians who had assimilated into white society were not relocated. They owned farms and were involved in trade. Some even owned slaves. Many of them were Christian and spoke English. Over time, they intermarried with whites and so we have people (like myself) who have never been considered anything but white.

No one likes to remember that Andrew Jackson's second son was an adopted Creek infant orphan that he carried back to Tennessee and presented to Rachel. He was raised as Jackson's son and tutored the same as the other adopted son. Jackson argued with West Point for years, trying to get Lyncoya into the Academy. Eventually, the boy was apprenticed in the leather trade but died young of TB. Jackson grieved as any other man would over his son's passing.

Blogger maniacprovost November 02, 2018 7:13 PM  

My polling place is packed right now. Hard to judge the demographic makeup. It's a majority Republican area to begin with.

Blogger rumpole5 November 02, 2018 7:21 PM  

I am completely taken in by Trump's oxymoronic blend of bragadocious humility. After Reagan, Thatcher and John Paul II exited the stage I thought that an age of heroes was past, but as the saying goes, grow old with me, the best is yet to come! It is truly a great honor to experience a president like Trump. May God bless him!

Blogger D. November 02, 2018 7:31 PM  

Trumpslide 2018!!

Blogger Doktor Jeep November 02, 2018 8:31 PM  

The day that violent leftists started threatening political violence and terrorism without them, their entire groups, and people funding them, getting rounded up and indicted, was the day that pollsters should have started looking into new careers.

Blogger Kat November 02, 2018 8:37 PM  

Double posted because relevant: https://twitter.com/tariqnasheed/status/1058139188611043328

Tariq Nasheed telling the Black DNC voter base that they might want to sit this one out.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 8:49 PM  

There's an Asimov story about a future where polling has become so sophisticated that they can determine the result of elections by asking a single person, so they do. The protagonist is a man who gets chosen to be The Voter one year. I don't remember anything else about the story, but I think of it when I hear about pollsters calling 20,000 people to get 500 answers and then having to extrapolate from that highly self-selected sample back to a voting population of millions. Good thing they have methodologies!

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 9:28 PM  

The "reluctant Republican" thing was a meme in 2016 too. Here's one article about a poll the week before the election that estimated 28% of Republican early voters crossing over in Florida, giving Clinton a +8 lead.

Blogger Purge187 November 02, 2018 10:07 PM  

OT breaking news: https://www.businessinsider.com/brett-kavanaugh-sexual-assault-accuser-judy-munro-leighton-2018-11

You think she'll face any consequences? Me neither.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 02, 2018 10:57 PM  

For what it's worth, Grassley has been referring the false Kavanaugh accusers and their lawyers to the DoJ for investigation.

Blogger charlie huxley November 02, 2018 11:00 PM  

Vox, what do you make of the GE’s comments regarding the Democreeps “squeaking” by, for the midterms?

I believe you when you argue for the nonexistence of a Blue Wave; I suppose I’m just looking for a bit of positive reinforcement.

You believe wholeheartedly we will not lose the House, correct?

Blogger mary smith November 02, 2018 11:55 PM  

Churchill was a disgusting, warmongering, German-hating drunk who represented a group in British power hell bent on a successful second punic war. It was a Pyrrhic victory. He was also involved in ginning up the Great War, and stupidly screwed up the economy between the wars by setting the price of the pound too high. Vox, get with it, will you? Do you really believe this drunk was a great leader? Do you honestly think he gave a rat's ass how many Englishmen had to die for his personal glory? If he was so great, why did the empire collapse under his "stewardship."

Blogger Didas Kalos November 03, 2018 12:22 AM  

Calm down #27.

Blogger JAG November 03, 2018 12:32 AM  

Teleros wrote:OT, but big:

https://mobile.twitter.com/TheRalphRetort/status/1058444521535614976

Ethan Ralph raised $26k for St Jude's charity to fight cancer in kids. Thanks to a WSJ hit piece, YT / St Jude is refunding this money.

Talk about a PR own goal.


Punishing wrongthink is more important to the leftist than helping children who suffer from cancer, because the true nature of the leftist is contrarian.

Shitlibs absolutely disgust me like no other people on Earth.

Blogger Garuna November 03, 2018 12:58 AM  

Fraud Nate Silver is now hedging.

"the House is far from a sure thing [for Democrats]"

"But there's a highly plausible world in which, e.g. Ds win the House popular vote by 6-7%, 21 (but not 23!) House seats"


THREAD: https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1058547659810705408

So much for his 87% certainty. If he's going to claim some kind of vindication no matter who wins, he might as well put every race at 50-50. There is no point paying attention to him.

Also it seems he's reheating the "muh popular vote" excuse. Wtf does the total national vote count matter for local and state-level races??? All it means is that blue seats are going blue with bigger margins.

Blogger Crew November 03, 2018 1:15 AM  

I don't think the Dims are going to take the house. A bridge too far.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 03, 2018 1:15 AM  

Lots of hedging and backing away yesterday and today. NY Times, WaPoo, USA Today -- on their opinion pages, of course, where it's deniable -- and now Nate. Are they trying to reduce Democrat expectations so they won't commit mass suicide when the blue wave dies a mile from shore, or are they switching from confidence to fear as a motivator to drive Democrats to the polls? Maybe some of both.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 03, 2018 1:20 AM  

"But there's a highly plausible world"

That's what he does. What does "highly plausible" mean in numbers? No idea. But when the Dems fall short, he will whip out "highly plausible" to say he saw it coming when the rest didn't, even if his web site predicted +40 D seats til the end. A quote for every possible outcome.

Blogger Philippe le Bel November 03, 2018 1:37 AM  

I wouldn't be pessimistic, but I take a look at the 2016 gov/senate/house elections, and the polls were quitly accurate

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_elections,_2016#Congressional_elections

Blogger SciVo November 03, 2018 1:59 AM  

OT: humanity's greatest thinker criticises fellow NPC for excessively basic programming; congratulates her on the small rebellion of prioritizing self-interest. (h/t Instapundit)

Blogger Garuna November 03, 2018 2:18 AM  

I wouldn't be pessimistic, but I take a look at the 2016 gov/senate/house elections, and the polls were quitly accurate

Midterm generic ballots are off by an average of 3% against the Republicans. In the last midterm they underestimated the Republican support by 6%!!

Dems are said to need about 6-7% generic lead to take the House. RCP aggregate has them at 7.5%. Just being off by the average amount gives the House to the Republicans.

As for individual races, pollsters do even worse. In 2016 for example, pollsters missed WI by an AVERAGE of 6%!! Most of the critical races this year barely have any polling done at all. Literally anything could be happening and we have no idea.

For the areas they do poll, even Fraud Nate Silver admits that pollsters deliberately huddle together. So if they're wrong, they're all wrong together and they can make collective excuses for their failure.

On top of all this, we have the "Orange Man Bad" phenomena. SJWs in all lines of work are abandoning their professional duty to shut down the Right. SJW pollsters could decide to screw with the numbers in a variety of ways. For example, we already know that pollsters are massively oversampling the youth vote. We know from early voting that the youth is barely turning out. Median age in many places is like 60+.

Blogger tublecane November 03, 2018 2:36 AM  

@13- Did you read John McCain's farewell letter? He said something about having had the honor to lose a presidential race. So at least Dubya was man enough to feel bad.

Blogger tublecane November 03, 2018 2:39 AM  

@30-

A Highly Plausible World

a Science Fiction Novel
By
Nathaniel Silver

Blogger Looking Glass November 03, 2018 3:19 AM  

For an explanation of this Election Cycle, I nominate this tweet.

https://twitter.com/ABPatriotWriter/status/1058533310970847232

"Lindsey Graham can get more people than Joe Biden or Oprah to see him. LINDSEY GRAHAM!"

And that's the nature of it. Flipping the House is out of the question for the Dems by the early voting tallies in CA. They'd need to flip seats they're running well behind 2016 in. There's almost no chance the GOP gains seats on Net, but that has more to do redistricting taking effect in a few places than anything else.

But, a point on polling. It actually broke in 2004. Everyone forgets it now, but most of the Battleground states were bad. Really bad, that year. To the point that the Exit Polls were bad across the country because a huge chunk of GOP voters wouldn't talk to the Exit Pollsters because they were mostly anti-war activists in battleground states. Take that and apply it nationwide to pollsters. The one group that does respond to polls at a high rate? White, college educated Women. I.e. Romney-Hillary voters.

We're going to get a re-run of 2012 this year, where an over-represented group let's pollsters play games. I tend to hold 2012 as less of the intentional manipulation games and more that Romney just got played by dirty tricks and was there to take the L, but the polling it implode on itself. This year, like 2016, is all about the narrative.

But the early voting is pointing to what a Blue Collapse scenario looks like. Non-white voting share is going to drop pretty severely in most States. That's why it's a good GOP margin nationally, but a few States (FL, AZ, TX) could be a complete Blue Collapse. Consistent theme is the minority population in the State. CA isn't going to elect a GOP Governor, but those House seats are looking pretty safe.

Still, like everything having to do with Power, it's always a slugfest to the end and there will be regional oddities. Lord willing, it'll go well.

Blogger S. Thermite November 03, 2018 3:23 AM  

@Don Reynolds

Thanks for sharing your perspective about Andrew Jackson. I’d never heard any of that before, and will have to research and verify before I can share it with others, but until now I wouldn’t have even thought to look.

Blogger Derrick Bonsell November 03, 2018 3:51 AM  

In 2012 Republicans kept the House but got 1 million less votes overall. 1 million. That is, BTW, a far cry from the 6-7% Nate is suggesting. They kept the House in 2016 by about the same total.

I'm pessimistic but I'll note that Bush in 2006 at least had to deal with an unpopular war and terrible approval ratings. What does Trump have against him that even compares?

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 03, 2018 4:17 AM  

For example, we already know that pollsters are massively oversampling the youth vote. We know from early voting that the youth is barely turning out.

Yes, was just discussing that. The pollsters say the youth vote that they've been begging for for decades is finally here. But if that were true, presumably most of them would be registering D, or at least I, and a surge of those would be showing up in the early voting. It isn't. So where are they?

At this point, the pollster sees that the data don't match his poll and starts trying to figure out what's wrong with the data. My answer is the "youth" tell the pollster they're going to vote, and then blow it off. They may not even be registered for real, because they don't know the time for that already passed. We just don't know, but we do know they're not early voting.

Blogger Damelon Brinn November 03, 2018 4:25 AM  

Here's a would-be Nate Silver who smells a rat in the polling and is trying to prepare Democrats for possible disappointment. He's just pointing out the obvious: there's nothing going on that would normally cause a tidal shift in voting, like a poor economy, and the D enthusiasm that their polls show just isn't there in the early votes. The commenters are attacking him for badthink, of course.

Blogger Jack Amok November 03, 2018 4:44 AM  

The pollsters say the youth vote that they've been begging for for decades is finally here. But if that were true, presumably most of them would be registering D

The last thing the Donks could possibly comprehend is that they aren't cool. I mean, how could oddly bulging, over the hill naked chicks not turn out the vote?

They jumped the shark so long ago the sharks don't even notice any more. Youts like to be subversive. Being anti-SJW is subversive today.

Viva la youts.

Blogger Mark Stoval November 03, 2018 5:39 AM  

The good pollster takes many factors in to account and is honest with himself and others. I don't think we have had too many pollsters like that for a long time.

I have a prediction that comes without any real data. I predict that the "blue wave" does not happen but that the "red wave" does not either. However, I do think there will be Republican gains.

Imagine how far ahead the Rs would be if only real American citizens got to vote. Imagine how far ahead the Republicans would be if you could not vote while on welfare or if you could not vote if you had committed any serious crime.

I think anyone with college debt should not be able to vote -- too stupid.

Oh well, just ramblings from one of the guys in the wrong age group for this ride. :-)

Blogger Azure Amaranthine November 03, 2018 6:06 AM  

"For the areas they do poll, even Fraud (((Nate Silver))) admits that pollsters deliberately huddle together. So if they're wrong, they're all wrong together and they can make collective excuses for their failure."

That almost sounds like some other organizational scheme. Like, you know, when banksters set up systems that require them to all fail together (or be punished for not failing). Sorta-kinda-sorta also like the bankster-coopted USA medical industry, sort of!

Almost, or something.

Blogger Roger Hill November 03, 2018 6:27 AM  

Is it wrong to lie to a political pollster? Would it be a sin in the same sense as lying to a neighbor?

If so, then I have some more sins laid on my ledger. Beginning in the last election cycle, I have misled pollsters who contact us. And for some odd reason, we get those calls. To be specific, my fibs relate mostly to candidate support and not basic ballot initiatives, like those amending our state's constitution. And speaking to other right leaning friends about it, many either refuse to respond or are not forthcoming with pollsters either. I obviously have company in doing this, but that doesn't necessarily justify my logic in doing it.

I have found a deep running current of emotional disdain towards the media on the right. And the media relies heavily on pollster results for their political news. My gut feeling is that those on our side will turn out to vote no matter the reported poll trends, whereas those on progressive side still take the media seriously. Progressives actually believe what The New York Times tells them! So if the progressive media tells them the election is in the bag, some of them will stay home on election day, content to allow the 'landslide' to occur without them.

If my reasoning is flawed, I'd be interested in hearing where I am mistaken.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 6:48 AM  

@13

"One thing that always galled me about George W. Bush was that when he lost the House in the midterms, and Nancy Pelosi took over as Speaker, Bush took it hard. There was this televised meeting after the election, and you could tell from body language that Bush was cringing a little in defeat, and Nancy was very triumphant and aggressive in posture. This always galled me, because had I been the one in the Oval Office, my demeanor would have been the opposite of Bush's. My attitude would have been defiant, and my message would have been, "You guys may have won this battle and won the House, but I'm still the President, and I will fight your agenda for the next 2 years tooth and nail with the veto pen and the bully pulpit, and I will make your lives a living hell." Instead, Bush just rolled over like a whipped dog."

When have ANY of the Bushes not been socialists? Bush didn't veto Pelosi's shit because Bush AGREES with her shit.

Blogger Philippe le Bel November 03, 2018 6:55 AM  

@36 : I didn't talk about national voting (anyway, the gap in favor of D it's easy to explain : they do soviet scores in their mongoloid cities). I talked about DISTRICTS. Believe me, even if I'm not american, I can't wait for the election night, I hope a red wave, but I'm very afraid of, not a blue wave, but just a control of the house by them. So, about DISTRICTS, you can tell everything about the -indeed- ridiculous nate cooper, the fact is readible on the link wiki : most of the districts forecast the last week were accurate.

That said, I wrote this on the CH :

. I know the polls are rigged, but we could beat them at their own game.

How ? I had go to the wiki election page, watching the contested seats (house, senate, governors) and, for each seat, I choose between all pundit (cook, 538, etc., but not fox) the one wich favorise the most the R candidate.

For the house :

safe R : 167 (1 pu)
safe D : 166
likely R : 28 (1 pu)
likely D : 19 (3 pu)
lean R : 14 (1 pu)
lean D : 12 (5 pu)
tilt R (I have to admit I don’t know what it mean, and if it’s more or less close than “lean”) : 1
titl D : 4 (3pu)

total D : 201 (11 pu)
total R : 210 (3 pu)

there is only so 24 PURE tossup (23 R, 1 D) : I use the same system, the poll the more favorable to R is take in balance.

Michigan 11 =
Kansas 2 D1
Nevada 3 D2
New York 22 D2
Minnesota 2 D3
New Jersey 7 D3
California 10 D5
California 45 D5
Minnesota 3 D5
Kansas 3 D6
Illinois 6 R1
Kentucky 6 R1
New York 19 R1
California 39 R10
Colorado 6 R10
Washington 8 R10
Iowa 3 R16
California 25 R2
California 48 R2
Florida 27 R2
New Jersey 3 R2
Michigan 8 R3
Virginia 7 R4
Maine 2 R5

So, on tossup seats, the OFFICIAL left-wing pundit predict 9 seats for D and 14 for R (without MI11, wich is historically deeply R)

so, even with left-wing pundit, I optain :
225 R (net losses from 2016 : 16)
210 D (net gain from 2016 : 16)

**************************************

SENATE :

Mississippi Safe R
Mississippi 2 Safe R
Nebraska Safe R
Utah Safe R
Wyoming Safe R
North Dakota Likely R
Tennessee Likely R
Texas Likely R
Arizona Tossup
Florida Tossup
Indiana Tossup
Missouri Tossup
Montana Tossup
Nevada Tossup
West Virginia Tilt D
Minnesota 2 Lean D
New Jersey Lean D
Ohio Lean D
Wisconsin Lean D
Michigan Likely D
Pennsylvania Likely D

I give AZ, IN, FL, MO and NV for R

net gain R : 4 (and real chances in MT, WV, NJ)

so, next senate : R 55, D 45 (potentially R 58, D 42)

**************************

governors :

12 safe R
2 safe D (Hawaii, NY)
Arizona Likely R
Oklahoma Likely R
South Dakota Likely R
Alaska Lean R
Georgia Lean R
Kansas Lean R
Ohio Tilt R
Connecticut Tossup
Florida Tossup
Iowa Tossup
Maine Tossup
Nevada Tossup
Oregon Tossup
Wisconsin Tossup
Colorado Lean D
Michigan Lean D
Minnesota Lean D
New Mexico Lean D
Rhode Island Lean D
California Likely D
Illinois Likely D
Pennsylvania Likely D

I give generously (by fairness, using the same method than with House, better polls for R in september and october, even if I think FL will be R) 6 PU for Dem (IL, NM, MI, ME, IA, FL)

before Nov 6 : D 17, R 33
after Nov 6 : D 22, R 28 (5 D net gain)

*********************

in conclusion, EVEN with left-wing pundit, pollsters, and WITHOUT expecting the cold anger vote, and the net advantage in term of voting by the R electorate (old, white), I optain a TOTAL R VICTORY ON THE 3 ELECTIONS.

I hope the state legislatures will go in the same way.

(Sorry for my english and the lenght of this post)

Blogger DJT November 03, 2018 7:03 AM  

Let us be in prayer these last three days, that the Lord will once again have mercy on this land, even though our sins do not make us worthy of it.

Give us a chance to repent of our sodomy and infanticide and unjust warfare, because the only chance to walk that back comes with Republicans in charge.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 7:08 AM  

@26

"I believe you when you argue for the nonexistence of a Blue Wave; I suppose I’m just looking for a bit of positive reinforcement.

You believe wholeheartedly we will not lose the House, correct?"

What has changed even one iota to the Democrat's advantage, other than the the Q team convincing a bunch of cuck-rinos that retirement from politics is better than being prosecuted for taking bribes and other corruption.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 03, 2018 7:46 AM  

@34

"I wouldn't be pessimistic, but I take a look at the 2016 gov/senate/house elections, and the polls were quitly accurate"

Yes, the polls published in the papers on the day of the election tend to be rather close. Every poll published in the media BEFORE election day has a minimum of 5% more support for the Democratic Party candidates than actually shows up to vote.

And it has been this way for EVERY SINGLE ELECTION FOR OVER 50 YEARS.

"If you don't read the newspapers, you are uninformed.
If you DO read the newspapers, you are misinformed."
-- Mark Twain.

Blogger Roger Hill November 03, 2018 9:30 AM  

Other great journalistic quotes by Chesterton....
"The newspapers which exist to tell the truth, now exist to keep the truth from being told."

"It will no longer be necessary to fight against a censorship of the press. We have a censorship by the press."

Blogger Sheila4g November 03, 2018 12:14 PM  

@42 Damelon Brinn: "At this point, the pollster sees that the data don't match his poll and starts trying to figure out what's wrong with the data. My answer is the "youth" tell the pollster they're going to vote, and then blow it off. They may not even be registered for real, because they don't know the time for that already passed. We just don't know, but we do know they're not early voting."

I got a local call from a courteous gentleman asking for my younger son (18 and voting for the first time). When I asked the purpose of his call, he stated that he wanted to confirm his presumed support and vote for a particular D candidate. So cold-calling a new voter and assuming he must be a SJW because 18. I just laughed and said he could assume no such support and hung up.

I participated in a couple of telephone polls regarding local candidates. Both pollsters were absolutely floored that I had never heard the name of the Democrat female running for the Texas house - I don't watch t.v., don't read any newspapers, and get all my news online (I have subsequently seen her name on a couple of yard signs, but had literally never heard her name before). Whoever the Democrats run is irrelevant to me, because I would never vote for them. What I told the pollsters was that women don't belong in public office so I wouldn't vote for her regardless of any of her political positions.

They make lots of confident assumptions based on their narrative. Genuine dissidents (like myself and others here) are never factored in because reality cannot be allowed to intrude.

Blogger Hari Seldon November 03, 2018 12:50 PM  

Peaceful Poster wrote:I hope this doesn't interfere with tonight's Darkstream but, if anyone is interested, Sir Steve Bannon is debating faggot David Frum tonight at 7pm Eastern.

You can watch it live here


Bannon slaughtered Frum in that debate. It wasn't even close. Frum was embarrassing. He made no serious attempt to defend the neoliberal/globalist order, beyond calling the other side raciss. A low-level writer at The Economist could have articulated the globalist arguments better than Frum did.

Blogger eclecticme November 03, 2018 3:03 PM  

Only kinda OT. Vox has said Diversity + Proximity = War. A Black Pigeon Speaks video blog says Diversity + Proximity = Republican Voters. Only 12 min long. It references a Harvard prof study and PNAS published paper. Placing two Spansih speaking people at a liberal white SW Boston commuter train stop for two weeks was enough to shift attitudes against immigration. 4 min to 8 min is the best part.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TCsTBfsdo50

Blogger tz November 03, 2018 4:04 PM  

If you doubt, Bannon debated Frum in Toronto. ZH has the video embdded, and said Bannon crushed Frum. Yes, this was Bambi v.s. Godzilla.

First, the debate itself, but also how the vote swung from before to after.

Bannon pounded it that it was not racism or whatever but the little people were being crushed, and started with Bush's 2000 bankster bailout. He continued zapping Frum with how the economy is improving and the ordinary American is benefiting, not the elite.

Frum just went "but they are horrible people and you really don't want to associate with them".

But I can't really describe it - you have to watch or listen to it.

Blogger James Dixon November 03, 2018 8:51 PM  

> Yes, the polls published in the papers on the day of the election tend to be rather close. Every poll published in the media BEFORE election day has a minimum of 5% more support for the Democratic Party candidates than actually shows up to vote. ... And it has been this way for EVERY SINGLE ELECTION FOR OVER 50 YEARS.

In some cases, not even on election day. In one of Reagan's two elections (I forget which one now), even the exit polling the day of the election was off. The pollsters concluded that the respondents must have lied to them.

Even given the best will in the world, pollsters must overcome a number of obstacles in getting a fair sample.
1) Rural versus city divide. It's a lot easier to reach people in the city.
2) Working versus non-workng. Which should be obvious. This is also affects the age distribution.
3) Many people are unwilling to take part in the polls.
4) Some people simply lie.

Whatever the reasons, the end result is that (as Dirk has said) there has always been a 5% or so false polling advantage for the Democratic candidates at the national level, and that's been true since at least Nixon.
3

Blogger Arthur Topham November 04, 2018 1:48 AM  

@VD
'You need to look at and judge leaders by the correct criteria, okay? What Winston Churchill did for the people of Germany was very, very bad, no question, but we don't judge Winston Churchill by what he did for the people of Germany, we judge him by what he did for the people of the United Kingdom of which he was the prime minister at the time."

And what, pray tell, was it that Churchill did for "the people of the United Kingdom" that was good Vox? He could have prevented the war with Germany but instead decided to sacrifice the lives of thousands of his own people (not to mention millions of others) in order to stop Germany from remaining a sovereign nation free from the globalists of the time and free from the international banking cartel.

Blogger Garuna November 04, 2018 2:00 AM  

James Comey caught lying about being polled for the midterms.

VOTE in 3 days: “I will not vote for another Republican until Trump is out of office.” My independent-voter wife to a Republican pollster who randomly called our house.
https://twitter.com/Comey/status/1058731890440658945

Polling company identified their affiliation tainting their sample? Why are you lying? Do you realize that you just revealed that you’re a liar to the hundreds of thousands who work in politics?
https://twitter.com/ali/status/1058967928555626497

EXTENDED: https://www.pscp.tv/w/1mrGmYqnVdqGy

Ali describes him as having "only good cop in town" syndrome. But sounds more like he's a nuclear gamma.

Blogger Dirk Manly November 04, 2018 12:29 PM  

@59

"And what, pray tell, was it that Churchill did for "the people of the United Kingdom" that was good Vox? He could have prevented the war with Germany but instead decided to sacrifice the lives of thousands of his own people (not to mention millions of others) in order to stop Germany from remaining a sovereign nation free from the globalists of the time and free from the international banking cartel."


No need to get your undies in a knot.

Vox wasn't evaluating Churchill, he was ONLY telling you from what viewpoint (from the UK, not Germany) he should be evaluated.

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